In my mind, I guess September is a little too early for conference clashes.
It was always that way when I was growing up — and it is still that way for many teams.
But some conference schedules do get underway in September. My alma mater, Arkansas, opened its 2017 conference schedule last weekend, losing in overtime to Texas A&M.
So, too, did TCU and Oklahoma State in the Big XII.
They've been in the same conference for five years now, but they played each other quite a few times before that. TCU hadn't won at Stillwater since 1991 (when Oklahoma State went 0–10–1).
I'm sure no one in their right mind picked the Horned Frogs to win that game — and yet they did, pretty convincingly.
It would have been great if I had made TCU one of my upset specials. I've really been struggling in that department — and I have only picked one upset special this week.
The way things have been going, there will be several upsets in the Top 25 — but the one I picked won't be one of them.
Idle: #3 Oklahoma, #8 Michigan, #9 TCU, #20 Utah, #23 West Virginia
Friday
- #5 Southern Cal at #16 Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Southern Cal has won nine of the last 10 meetings with Washington State — which is just a little better than the Trojans' all–time winning percentage in the series.
Nevertheless the oddsmakers only favor USC by four points. What do they know that I don't?
The Trojans have won five straight at Washington State. Make that six in a row for Southern Cal. - #14 Miami (Fla.) at Duke, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is a comparatively young series. Most of the games have been played in the 21st century.
Of the 14 games that have been played, Miami has won 12 — and is 7–1 at Duke. Oddsmakers favor the Hurricanes by six points.
Seems like this could be a trap game, but I will pick Miami, anyway.
- Ole Miss at #1 Alabama, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It was very dramatic in recent years when the Rebels beat the Tide — twice — but Alabama got the upper hand back last season.
Historically Alabama has dominated the series. This will be the 61st meeting and the Tide will be looking for its 50th win over Ole Miss.
I have to pick Alabama. - #2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This must be the marquee game of the weekend.
And it is one more challenge for a Clemson team that keeps rising to the occasion.
This is a conference rivalry but not a divisional one, which means these teams do not face each other every year. Nevertheless they have faced off 32 times before, and the clear trend — at least in the last 30 years — has been for one team to win several in a row before yielding to the other.
The team that is currently on a winning streak is Clemson, but the Tigers, who have won four in a row from the Hokies, haven't five in a row since the 1980s.
Thus the Tigers are battling history in this one. Can they do it? I believe they can. Clemson is the choice. - Indiana at #4 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These teams have played 20 times, and Indiana has been the winner only once.
But that was at Penn State.
Will lightning strike twice? No. I pick Penn State. - #6 Washington at Oregon State, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Washington has won six of the last seven meetings with Oregon State.
On paper this looks like a sure thing. I pick Washington. - #7 Georgia at Tennessee, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: With last year's 34–31 victory, the Volunteers slipped ahead of Georgia in the all–time series.
They had just pulled even in the series with a 38–31 victory in Knoxville the year before. So the Vols are looking to make it three in a row against the Bulldogs. Tennessee hasn't beaten Georgia that many times in a row since the '90s, when the Vols won nine in a row — and Peyton Manning was in the lineup for awhile.
Knoxville is a tough place to play, which Georgia fans know all too well, but I think Georgia will pull this one out. - Northwestern at #10 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Wisconsin leads the all–time series with Northwestern by more than 20 games.
But the schools have split the last 12 meetings right down the middle — and in those 12 games, the home team has been the winner two–thirds of the time.
So I guess history is saying that Wisconsin will probably win. The oddsmakers are saying so, too. They make the Badgers 14–point favorites.
I will go with Wisconsin as well. - #11 Ohio State at Rutgers, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These schools have played three times, and the Buckeyes have won by lopsided margins every time.
I expect nothing to change this time. Ohio State will win. - #24 Mississippi State at #13 Auburn, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically speaking, Auburn has Mississippi State's number. The Tigers have won about two–thirds of the time, including 12 of the last 16 meetings.
And the oddsmakers think they will do so again — but the SEC is so balanced that year that it seems anyone can beat anyone (unless that second anyone is Alabama) on any given Saturday.
This one seems to be a good candidate for an upset so I make Mississippi State my upset special choice — and given my record in upset specials so far this year, that means Auburn should be a lock to win the game. Place your bets! - #15 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Oklahoma State has won eight in a row against Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders' last win over the Cowboys came at Lubbock.
Oklahoma State needs to reassert itself in the wake of its surprising loss to TCU last week — and the Cowboys are 9½–point picks to do just that.
The Cowboys have won eight in a row against the Red Raiders, but the games are always entertaining. Last year OSU won by a single point, 45–44. The year before that, in the most recent game between the two in Lubbock, the teams combined for more than 120 points.
I pick Oklahoma State. - Murray State at #17 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACCNE: I can't see Murray State hanging with Louisville for four quarters. This one should be lopsided.
I pick Louisville. - #18 South Florida at East Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is a young series. The teams have only met seven times, but South Florida has dominated, winning six of those contests.
And East Carolina's only win came at South Florida in 2014. The Pirates are 0–3 at home against South Florida.
The oddsmakers favor South Florida to make ECU's home record in the series 0–4. They have established the Bulls as 23½–point favorites. I have to take South Florida. - Northern Illinois at #19 San Diego State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: In their four previous meetings, San Diego State emerged victorious every time.
The oddsmakers make SDSU an 11–point pick this time. If Northern Illinois beats the spread, it will be the closest game the teams have ever played.
I take San Diego State. - Vanderbilt at #21 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Talk about a lopsided series.
Florida has won all but one of the last 26 meetings — but the good news for Vandy is that that single victory came at Florida in 2013, which happens to be the Gators' worst season since 1979.
It doesn't seem likely that this season will be worse than that one was — nor does it seem likely that the Commodores will win this one. My pick is Florida. - Miami (Ohio) at #22 Notre Dame, 4 p.m. (Central) on NBCSN: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools.
The oddsmakers don't think it will be much of a game. The Irish are favored by 21½ points.
OK. I'll take Notre Dame. - Troy at #25 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These two teams have played each other twice, both times at LSU, and the Tigers won both times.
LSU doesn't seem to be as good as it often is, but I think LSU has enough in the tank to win this one.
Overall: 67–16
Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4
Last week's upset specials: 0–3
Overall upset specials: 1–8
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