There's No Crying in Baseball

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New York Yankees fans hoped to be celebrating the franchise's 27th world championship today, but the Philadelphia Phillies won Game 5 last night, and now the teams are returning to New York for Game 6 and, if the Phillies win again on Wednesday night, Game 7.

Tyler Kepner tried to put the best possible face on the situation in the New York Times:

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"Fans would like to believe that players can will themselves to greatness, particularly those infused with that most intangible quality: grit. There is no way to measure grit, but we know it when we see it, or at least we think we do.

"Jimmy Rollins is gritty. So are Jorge Posada and Shane Victorino and Brett Gardner. And so, of course, is Andy Pettitte, the Yankees' first choice to start Game 6 of the World Series on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.

"Sometimes the grittiest players, the ones renowned for playing the right way and coming through at big moments, do not deliver. Derek Jeter came up as the potential tying run in the ninth inning of Game 5 on Monday, with a moonlighting closer, Ryan Madson, teetering on disaster for the Philadelphia Phillies. Madson threw a sinking fastball, and Jeter grounded into a double play."

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It looked pretty good for the Yankees when they had reeled off three straight wins after losing the opener.

And, admittedly, the Phils have their work cut out for them. They still have to win two games in enemy territory. And they'll have to continue this improbable march to the title by overcoming Andy Pettitte Wednesday night.

But Pettitte, although victorious in Game 3, struggled against the Phillies the first time. Now forced to pitch on three days' rest for New York, Pettitte's season "seemed to reach the point of exhaustion Saturday," as Kepner observed. It remains to be seen whether he can summon what is necessary to throttle the Phillies — and Pettitte, who has won 17 of 26 postseason decisions, said his first encounter with the Phillies was an "absolute grind."

If he doesn't stop the Phillies, that will mean a Game 7. New York still will present a formidable obstacle on the mound in C.C. Sabathia, but he, too, will be working on three days' rest. What happens will dictate the terms of the debate that seems likely to be waged during the offseason.

In my experience, anything can happen in a best–of–seven series that reaches the seventh game. At that point, Yankee fans may be second–guessing everything after coming within one win of claiming that championship only to lose the next two games, and the Yankee Stadium crowd may be more subdued for Game 7 than it will be tomorrow night.

By that time, too, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel may be praised for sticking with his pitching rotation in spite of the pressure that comes with some tough setbacks in a short playoff series.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. First thing's first. That means tomorrow night's game.

Whatever happens, both teams are to be commended for a scrappy series. But, win or lose, I would implore their fans to remember ...

There's no crying in baseball.

Revenge Is Sweet After 59 Years

It's still a bit early for fans of the Philadelphia Phillies to be claiming that the Phils have avenged the Whiz Kids' loss to the New York Yankees in the 1950 World Series.

But, between Cliff Lee's heroics on the mound and Chase Utley's heroics at the plate, the Phillies rolled to a 6–1 victory over the Yankees in the World Series opener in New York last night. And that's a good start.

I'm sure it was sweet for the Phillies to celebrate their first world title in nearly 30 years last year. But they beat the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that didn't even exist the last time Philadelphia played in the World Series. Beating the storied Yankees would be a much bigger feather in their caps.

Knowing that they can clinch the championship at home now after the teams play Game 2 at Yankee Stadium tonight, Phillies fans ought to be feeling pretty good today. A Philly win tonight means the Phils can win the title by winning two of their three home games. Even if they lose tonight, a sweep in Philadelphia will accomplish the same goal.

Home field advantage belongs to Philly now. That's the kind of momentum a team gains from winning the World Series opener on the road. A win tonight would be icing on the cake — but it would be hard for the Yankees to ignore that it is also the kind of momentum that is tough to overcome in a seven–game series. Not impossible. Just damn hard.

Joe Posnanski marvels, in a column written for SI.com, at Lee's composure. Lee performed, he writes, "like he had already seen the game and knew how it turned out. He pitched like he was on Tivo."

I have to admit I feel a certain affinity for Lee. He was born in Arkansas, the state where I grew up. His hometown is Benton, where I worked for the local newspaper when Lee was a boy. He attended my alma mater, the University of Arkansas.

I'm happy for him, as I am when anyone from my home state succeeds in his chosen field. I felt the same way when Kris Allen won the "American Idol" competition last spring.

I don't really have a horse in this race. I'm a Dodger fan and, if I had had my way, the Dodgers would be playing the Yankees in the World Series, not the Phillies. But that isn't how it turned out.

Will the Phillies wind up winning the long–awaited rematch? Or will the Yankees rally and break Philadelphia's hearts again? I don't know. But, while I'm sure Phillies fans would prefer a four–game sweep — as payment in kind for the 1950 World Series — I'd rather see it go seven games, no matter which team wins.

That might be tougher for the diehard fans of both teams, but it would be more entertaining for the rest of us.

The Return of the Whiz Kids

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Fifty–nine years is a long time to wait for revenge, but baseball fans in Philadelphia have had to wait that long for a chance to even the score with the New York Yankees.

It was in 1950 that the Phillies, known as the "Whiz Kids," were swept by the Yankees in the World Series. That was the only time the two teams met with the world championship on the line.

They meet again in the Fall Classic starting Wednesday in New York.

The Phillies earned their nickname because of the youth of their squad. The average age of the Phillies was 26. They were the youngest team ever to win the National League pennant.

I don't know how the average age of this year's team compares to the 1950 team. But does it matter? The lesson of the Whiz Kids seems to be that age and experience are not bad things.

Not many of the Whiz Kids are still around, but I presume that the surviving members — pitchers Robin Roberts, Curt Simmons and Bob Miller, catcher Stan Lopata and outfielder Jackie Mayo — will be invited to at least one of the games in Philadelphia.

All are in their 80s, though, and health concerns may prevent some or all of them from being there.

But 59 years is a long time to wait for redemption — and those guys might not get another chance.

And, Now, For Something Completely Different ...

In a year that will give America either its first black president or its first female vice president, I guess it's only fitting that major league baseball, too, will produce a champion that breaks the mold.

The Tampa Bay Rays, of course, are an expansion team. Formed in 1998 as the "Devil Rays" but renamed by the owner in 2007 to be "a beacon that radiates throughout Tampa Bay and across the entire state of Florida," Tampa Bay's baseball team actually plays in twin city St. Petersburg.

The team qualified for the playoffs for the first time this year, so winning the World Series would be a first for Tampa Bay as well.

The Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, have been to the World Series before. But they haven't been there often — five times in all. They even won it once — way back in 1980, when the Phillies beat the Kansas City Royals.

The Phillies' last appearance in the World Series was 15 years ago, when they lost in six games to the Toronto Blue Jays.

At the time, Philadelphia appeared to be on the verge of becoming a force to reckon with in the National League, but events conspired against the Phillies.

The players' strike the following year canceled the 1994 postseason, and realignment of the major league clubs in 1995 put Philadelphia in the same division with the Atlanta Braves, who were in the midst of an unprecedented run of success in the 1990s (with the exception of their postseason performances).

In 2008, baseball, like the political parties, had the opportunity to end up with familiar finalists — the Dodgers, who lost the N.L. title to the Phillies, have been in the World Series 18 times, and the Red Sox, who lost the A.L. title to the Rays, have been there 11 times.

But both politics and baseball are writing new chapters this year.

Game 1 of the World Series is Wednesday night in the Rays' ballpark.

By the way, for you baseball trivia experts out there, Thursday (when Game 2 is scheduled to be played) will be the 15th anniversary of Joe Carter's walk-off home run that won the 1993 World Series for Toronto against Philadelphia.

MY PREDICTION: I'm going to predict that Tampa Bay will defeat Philadelphia in six games. The Rays are looking like a team of destiny to me.

Dodgers, Phillies on Verge of Advancing

The other day I predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies would win their divisional series and advance to the National League's championship series.

But they've both been more efficient than I expected.

I predicted that both teams would need all five games to finish off their foes.

Each team has played only two games — and they both have today off — but both teams are 2-0 and could finish off their series tomorrow.

Particularly amazing are the Dodgers, who barely managed a winning record in baseball's worst division yet have surprised baseball observers by winning the first two games on the road. Now they need only one more win — with the next two games to be played in Dodger Stadium — to move on to the N.L. championship series.

Only one team in major league baseball history has come back to win a playoff series after losing the first two games at home — the 2004 Boston Red Sox — recalls MLB.com.

The Phillies, meanwhile, took care of business at home. They, too, need only one more victory to win the series with the Milwaukee Brewers — but the next two games will be played in Milwaukee, where the Brewers won 60% of the time this year.

The Brewers, however, are going to have to win 100% of their home games in this playoff series, then take the fifth and deciding game in Philadelphia if they're going to deny the Phillies a spot in the league championship series. That's a tough assignment.

As MLB.com observes, prior to this year, there were 16 times when a team took a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five National League divisional series. Each of those 16 teams won the series — and 13 of them did so by completing the sweep with a win in the third game.

The odds clearly are against the Brewers and the Cubs.

And, if you're a Cubs fan, it's going to be hard to blame this postseason collapse on a 63-year-old billy goat curse — unless the Cubs can manage to rise from the near-dead, win two straight in Dodger Stadium and bring the series back to Wrigley Field for the fifth game.

If that happens, the billy goat might turn out to be a plausible scapegoat.

But make no mistake about it. The blame for the first two losses (especially Thursday night's 10-3 disaster) belongs to the Cubs themselves.

And a certain amount of the credit probably belongs to the Dodgers.

Here Are My Playoff Predictions

Milwaukee and Philadelphia are due to get the baseball postseason started in a couple of hours.

And I want to get in my first-round predictions before the first pitch is thrown.

In the National League:

• Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia: Both teams performed well at home, winning about three-fifths of the time. The Phillies played a little better on the road than the Brewers did.
  
  Both teams were pretty weak at the plate. The Phillies were 10th among the 16 N.L. clubs with a .255 average. The Brewers were 12th with a .251 average.
  
  According to the old saying, though, pitching and defense win championships. There have been exceptions, but that certainly seems to be true in short series.
  
  If it becomes a matter of pitching, who has the edge between the Brewers and the Phillies? Based on the numbers, it looks pretty close. For that matter, the top four teams in the N.L. in ERA are the same four teams who are in the playoffs. Milwaukee had a 3.85 ERA during the season, the Phillies had a 3.88 ERA. Pitching should be pretty strong in the N.L.'s playoff games.
  
  The bullpen appears to be about equal, with Milwaukee getting 45 saves during the season and Philadelphia getting 44.
  
  I predict it will go five games and I'll give the edge to the team with the homefield advantage — Philadelphia.


• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: Hands down, the Cubs were the best home team in the National League, winning two-thirds of their games at Wrigley Field. The Dodgers were pretty good at home, too, winning a little more than 59% of the time.
  
  On the road, the Cubs had a winning record (winning 52% of their games) while the Dodgers won less than 45% of their road games.
  
  The Cubs had the best team batting average of any team in the playoffs — in either league (.278) — and their pitchers' ERA was a respectable 3.87, which was fifth-best in the majors (although it trails the Dodgers' 3.68 ERA, the best in the National League).
  
  Those numbers should suggest an easy Cubs win. In fact, they should suggest an easy win against the Dodgers and another easy win against either the Phillies or the Brewers, making a trip to the World Series virtually inevitable.
  
  But these are the Cubs we're talking about. When you look up "futility" or "error-prone" — or "curse" — in the dictionary, you should see the Cubs logo.
  
  History tells me that, because we're talking about the Cubs, we will see a magnificent collapse. And, if history provides any indication of what to expect, it will be grander and more heartbreaking than any of the Cubs' previous collapses.
  
  So my question is, will the Cubs collapse against the Dodgers and their N.L.-leading ERA? Or will they win in the first round, only to wilt against either the Phillies' league-leading home run hitters or the Brewers' pitchers, with their 3.85 ERA and league-most complete games?
  
  I'm going to guess that they'll end the suspense quickly and lose in the first round to the Dodgers, three games to two.

In the American League:

Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay had better winning percentages at home (70% to 66%) and on the road (49% to 43%) than the White Sox did.

The White Sox led the league in home runs, but, other than that, neither team's offense was at the top of the A.L. charts. The Sox were 11th of 14 teams and the Rays were 13th in batting average. Tampa Bay showed pretty good speed during the season, leading the A.L. in stolen bases, but their problem was getting on base in the first place, ranking 13th in base hits.

The key, in addition to winning percentages at home and on the road, may be found in pitching. Tampa Bay was second in the league in ERA (Chicago was sixth), tied for third in complete games (Chicago was 11th) and virtually tied for third in strikeouts with the White Sox (Chicago had 1,147 while Tampa Bay had 1,143).

If it comes down to the bullpen, Tampa's relievers recorded the A.L.'s second-best tally in saves (52) while Chicago was 12th in that category (34).

Plus, Chicago may be a little tired after having to play two additional games on Monday and Tuesday just to qualify for the playoffs while everyone else was resting and licking their wounds.

I pick Tampa in four games.


• Boston vs. Los Angeles Angels: Boston was a stronger team at home than Los Angeles, winning 69% of the time in Fenway Park while the Angels won about 62% of the time at home. Boston struggled on the road, winning 48% of its games while the Angels again won about 62% of the time.
  
  At the plate, the Red Sox had a better year than the Angels, recording a higher batting average of .280 to Los Angeles' .268. Boston was sixth in the league in home runs (L.A. was ninth), but the Angels finished second in steals (129), just ahead of Boston (120).
  
  Who has the edge in pitching? L.A.'s ERA was 3.99 while Boston's was 4.01. The Angels' bullpen led the A.L. in saves with 66; Boston was a distant third with 47. But Boston led the league in strikeouts with 1,185, while the Angels were sixth in the A.L. with 1,106.
  
  It doesn't really seem to matter to the Angels whether they're at home or on the road. The Red Sox will be competitive, but I pick the Angels to win in four games.

Enjoy the playoffs!

Almost Set Now

Sunday was the last day on the major league baseball schedule, and the initial pairings in the playoffs are almost set now.

It's a done deal in the National League.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will play the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in the opener of their series on Wednesday. Milwaukee and Philadelphia will open their series that afternoon in Philadelphia.

Likewise, the American League's playoff schedule is almost complete now.

Today, the Chicago White Sox and the Detroit Tigers have to play a makeup game. If Chicago wins, the White Sox will be tied for the A.L. Central title and will play host to the Minnesota Twins in a one-game playoff tomorrow. If Chicago loses today, the Twins win the division and the final playoff berth.

The winner of the A.L. Central will travel to A.L. East champion Tampa Bay for the series opener on Thursday. Meanwhile, the other A.L. playoff series begins Wednesday when the Boston Red Sox travel to Los Angeles to take on the Angels.