Showing posts with label Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rays. Show all posts

Monday, October 20, 2008

And, Now, For Something Completely Different ...

In a year that will give America either its first black president or its first female vice president, I guess it's only fitting that major league baseball, too, will produce a champion that breaks the mold.

The Tampa Bay Rays, of course, are an expansion team. Formed in 1998 as the "Devil Rays" but renamed by the owner in 2007 to be "a beacon that radiates throughout Tampa Bay and across the entire state of Florida," Tampa Bay's baseball team actually plays in twin city St. Petersburg.

The team qualified for the playoffs for the first time this year, so winning the World Series would be a first for Tampa Bay as well.

The Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, have been to the World Series before. But they haven't been there often — five times in all. They even won it once — way back in 1980, when the Phillies beat the Kansas City Royals.

The Phillies' last appearance in the World Series was 15 years ago, when they lost in six games to the Toronto Blue Jays.

At the time, Philadelphia appeared to be on the verge of becoming a force to reckon with in the National League, but events conspired against the Phillies.

The players' strike the following year canceled the 1994 postseason, and realignment of the major league clubs in 1995 put Philadelphia in the same division with the Atlanta Braves, who were in the midst of an unprecedented run of success in the 1990s (with the exception of their postseason performances).

In 2008, baseball, like the political parties, had the opportunity to end up with familiar finalists — the Dodgers, who lost the N.L. title to the Phillies, have been in the World Series 18 times, and the Red Sox, who lost the A.L. title to the Rays, have been there 11 times.

But both politics and baseball are writing new chapters this year.

Game 1 of the World Series is Wednesday night in the Rays' ballpark.

By the way, for you baseball trivia experts out there, Thursday (when Game 2 is scheduled to be played) will be the 15th anniversary of Joe Carter's walk-off home run that won the 1993 World Series for Toronto against Philadelphia.

MY PREDICTION: I'm going to predict that Tampa Bay will defeat Philadelphia in six games. The Rays are looking like a team of destiny to me.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Boston's Memorable Comeback

The year 1929 seems to be inescapable for Americans these days.

Of course, the financial crisis has had people thinking about the Great Depression (which began with the stock market crash in October of that year) for awhile now.

But last night the Boston Red Sox gave sports fans a chance to reflect on 1929 as well.

(Considering that the last comparable comeback in baseball occurred only a couple of weeks before the legendary Stock Market Crash of 1929, Americans outside the Boston area may not find much comfort in last night's rally by the Red Sox.)

With their 8-7 win over Tampa Bay, the Red Sox remained alive in the American League Championship Series. They trail, three games to two, as they return to Tampa for the final two games this weekend.

The comeback, as has been stated, was the greatest in baseball's postseason since 1929, which was 40 years before the American and National Leagues split into divisions. In 1929, the only postseason games were the World Series itself — which matched the Philadelphia Athletics and the Chicago Cubs that year.

The A's won the first two games in Chicago, then lost the third game when the series shifted to Philadelphia. Thus, when the teams met for Game 4 on Saturday, Oct. 12, 1929, in Philadelphia, the visiting team had won each of the first three games.

It looked like that trend would continue through the first six innings of the fourth game.

The Cubs led, 8-0, going into the bottom of the seventh. But left fielder Al Simmons led off the at-bat with a home run for the A's, and Philadelphia scored nine more runs on nine more hits — taking a 10-8 lead into the eighth. The score held up, giving the A's a 3-1 lead in the series.

The Athletics clinched the world championship with another come-from-behind victory two days later, on Monday, Oct. 14, 1929, at Philadelphia's Shibe Park. The Cubs took a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth, but the Athletics rallied for three runs to finish off Chicago in five games.

Does last night's rally have any historical significance — for either the economy or baseball?

It's hard to say what, if any, relationship the two things have to each other — and, therefore, whether the occurrence of an historic comeback should serve as an omen of an impending economic collapse.

It seems to me that a few things can be said with some certainty:
  • Although we often hear sports analogies used in economic conversations, the fact is that the advantage in an athletic contest is more permanent than the advantages most consumers realize with most investments.

    As we've seen in the recent wild fluctuations of the stock market, the value of stocks can change drastically on a daily basis — if not hourly or even by the minute.

    But, unless a rules violation is discovered long after a game is over, and a team is required to forfeit a game it won on the field, a win is a win is a win. Fans can "what-if" an outcome indefinitely, some fans may desert a team because of it, but the outcome itself doesn't change. Nor does the value of any championships that were won.

  • Also — unless I missed something — I didn't get the sense that this was a deal breaker for Tampa Bay.

    In 2003, at Chicago's Wrigley Field, when the Cubs were a few outs away from winning the National League title in Game 6 and blew it when both a fan and a player failed to catch a fly ball, igniting a fateful (and nearly as improbable) eight-run rally by Florida, I clearly got the feeling that the air had gone out of the team and the fans, even though Florida did not clinch the league title that night.

    The difference between the 2003 Cubs and the 2008 Rays is that the Cubs were playing at home. The crowd for Game 7 at Wrigley Field seemed more subdued than one would expect, perhaps with the memory of the previous game fresh in the fans' minds.

    And the Cubs' long-suffering fans were eliminated as factors in the game when Florida rallied from a 5-3 deficit to take the lead for good in the fifth inning.

    Only time will tell if a similar fate awaits the Rays. But they lost Game 5 on the road, and now they have two opportunities to wrap up the American League title at home. I like their chances.
Here's a sampling of the media response to last night's game:
  • If you pull for the Boston Red Sox, you've lived with a history of postseason futility that was nearly as paralyzing as the one the Cubs' fans have endured for a century.

    In the end, it may take something as dramatic as Boston's championship season of 2004 to snap them out of it.

    In 2004, as you may recall, the Red Sox came back from an 0-3 deficit against the rival New York Yankees to win the league title in seven games, then won the World Series with a four-game sweep of St. Louis that was capped by a total lunar eclipse on the night of Game 4 that colored the moon red over Busch Stadium.

    Anyway, the Red Sox's fans know what's it like to have their backs against the wall.

    "Pedigree matters," says Bob Ryan in the Boston Globe. "The Red Sox are the defending champions. They always come to play nine innings, and if it takes the greatest postseason comeback in 79 years to stay alive, then they will give you the greatest comeback in 79 years."

  • The rally was "unbelievable," as Joe Posnanski writes in his blog.

    "This was like something out of a kid’s dream," he writes. "Do you remember being a kid and concocting these fantastic scenarios when your team was losing, these preposterous comebacks that boggled logic and the space-time continuum?"

  • Gary Shelton concedes, in the St. Petersburg Times, that Boston put together a remarkable comeback.

    "The Rays lost a devastating game," Shelton writes. "They didn't lose anything else. They did not lose momentum, they did not lose their confidence, and they did not lose their grip on the ALCS. Saturday night, Sunday at the latest, they will close out this thing. Just you watch."

  • But judging from the tone of his recap in today's Tampa Tribune, Martin Fennelly believes the tide has turned — and that, in spite of their 3-2 lead with the last two games to be played at home, the Rays are finished.

    "Seven runs up. Seven outs away," he writes. "It goes on. How will the Rays?"

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

The Final Four

Baseball's 2008 divisional series are complete now, and three of the four survivors that I predicted last week have advanced to the next round.

The surprise entrant, at least as far as my predictions are concerned, is the Boston Red Sox. I predicted they would lose to the Los Angeles Angels. But they didn't, winning a 3-2 ballgame at Fenway Park last night to eliminate the Angels.

And they will go on to meet the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Championship Series. That series starts on Friday.

If Tampa Bay defeats Boston, that will make two consecutive seasons in which a team that has never been in a World Series before wins its league's title and advances to the Fall Classic. The Colorado Rockies played in their first World Series last year, but they failed to win a game against the Red Sox.

It would also be the fifth time in this decade that a team has played in its first World Series. The others were the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Anaheim Angels and the Houston Astros.

Playing for a World Series berth is nothing new for the Red Sox or their fans. Only the Yankees (who have more World Series championships — 26 — than any other team) and the Athletics have represented the American League in the World Series more often than the Red Sox.

Both the Dodgers and the Phillies have been to the Fall Classic before, but the Dodgers have been there more frequently. In fact, the Dodgers have played in the World Series more often (18 times) than any other National League team. By contrast, the Phillies have been in the World Series five times with only one title to show for it — the fewest of non-expansion teams.

But numbers from the past — even the recent past — really don't mean anything in the playoffs. Already, the teams with the best records in both leagues (the Angels and the Cubs) have been eliminated.

In fact, Scoop Jackson of ESPN speculates that the Cubs' meltdown against the Dodgers was their worst ever. If he's right, that's a pretty impressive achievement, considering the Cubs' record of failure in the playoffs.

Here's my prediction:
  • In the National League, I predict the Dodgers will defeat the Phillies in five games.

    The first game will start at 7:22 p.m. (Central) on Thursday. It will be televised on FOX.

  • In the American League, the Rays may be the sentimental favorite, but I pick the team with the postseason experience — the Red Sox — to win the championship in six games.

    The first game starts at 7:37 p.m. (Central) Friday. It will be televised by TBS.
Fasten your seat belts. It could be a bumpy ride.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Here Are My Playoff Predictions

Milwaukee and Philadelphia are due to get the baseball postseason started in a couple of hours.

And I want to get in my first-round predictions before the first pitch is thrown.

In the National League:
  • Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia: Both teams performed well at home, winning about three-fifths of the time. The Phillies played a little better on the road than the Brewers did.

    Both teams were pretty weak at the plate. The Phillies were 10th among the 16 N.L. clubs with a .255 average. The Brewers were 12th with a .251 average.

    According to the old saying, though, pitching and defense win championships. There have been exceptions, but that certainly seems to be true in short series.

    If it becomes a matter of pitching, who has the edge between the Brewers and the Phillies? Based on the numbers, it looks pretty close. For that matter, the top four teams in the N.L. in ERA are the same four teams who are in the playoffs. Milwaukee had a 3.85 ERA during the season, the Phillies had a 3.88 ERA. Pitching should be pretty strong in the N.L.'s playoff games.

    The bullpen appears to be about equal, with Milwaukee getting 45 saves during the season and Philadelphia getting 44.

    I predict it will go five games and I'll give the edge to the team with the homefield advantage — Philadelphia.

  • Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: Hands down, the Cubs were the best home team in the National League, winning two-thirds of their games at Wrigley Field. The Dodgers were pretty good at home, too, winning a little more than 59% of the time.

    On the road, the Cubs had a winning record (winning 52% of their games) while the Dodgers won less than 45% of their road games.

    The Cubs had the best team batting average of any team in the playoffs — in either league (.278) — and their pitchers' ERA was a respectable 3.87, which was fifth-best in the majors (although it trails the Dodgers' 3.68 ERA, the best in the National League).

    Those numbers should suggest an easy Cubs win. In fact, they should suggest an easy win against the Dodgers and another easy win against either the Phillies or the Brewers, making a trip to the World Series virtually inevitable.

    But these are the Cubs we're talking about. When you look up "futility" or "error-prone" — or "curse" — in the dictionary, you should see the Cubs logo.

    History tells me that, because we're talking about the Cubs, we will see a magnificent collapse. And, if history provides any indication of what to expect, it will be grander and more heartbreaking than any of the Cubs' previous collapses.

    So my question is, will the Cubs collapse against the Dodgers and their N.L.-leading ERA? Or will they win in the first round, only to wilt against either the Phillies' league-leading home run hitters or the Brewers' pitchers, with their 3.85 ERA and league-most complete games?

    I'm going to guess that they'll end the suspense quickly and lose in the first round to the Dodgers, three games to two.
In the American League:
    • Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay had better winning percentages at home (70% to 66%) and on the road (49% to 43%) than the White Sox did.

      The White Sox led the league in home runs, but, other than that, neither team's offense was at the top of the A.L. charts. The Sox were 11th of 14 teams and the Rays were 13th in batting average. Tampa Bay showed pretty good speed during the season, leading the A.L. in stolen bases, but their problem was getting on base in the first place, ranking 13th in base hits.

      The key, in addition to winning percentages at home and on the road, may be found in pitching. Tampa Bay was second in the league in ERA (Chicago was sixth), tied for third in complete games (Chicago was 11th) and virtually tied for third in strikeouts with the White Sox (Chicago had 1,147 while Tampa Bay had 1,143).

      If it comes down to the bullpen, Tampa's relievers recorded the A.L.'s second-best tally in saves (52) while Chicago was 12th in that category (34).

      Plus, Chicago may be a little tired after having to play two additional games on Monday and Tuesday just to qualify for the playoffs while everyone else was resting and licking their wounds.

      I pick Tampa in four games.

    • Boston vs. Los Angeles Angels: Boston was a stronger team at home than Los Angeles, winning 69% of the time in Fenway Park while the Angels won about 62% of the time at home. Boston struggled on the road, winning 48% of its games while the Angels again won about 62% of the time.

      At the plate, the Red Sox had a better year than the Angels, recording a higher batting average of .280 to Los Angeles' .268. Boston was sixth in the league in home runs (L.A. was ninth), but the Angels finished second in steals (129), just ahead of Boston (120).

      Who has the edge in pitching? L.A.'s ERA was 3.99 while Boston's was 4.01. The Angels' bullpen led the A.L. in saves with 66; Boston was a distant third with 47. But Boston led the league in strikeouts with 1,185, while the Angels were sixth in the A.L. with 1,106.

      It doesn't really seem to matter to the Angels whether they're at home or on the road. The Red Sox will be competitive, but I pick the Angels to win in four games.
    Enjoy the playoffs!
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