The Heisman Snub

Maybe I missed something.

But why wasn't Texas Tech's Graham Harrell invited to attend the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York this weekend?

Three quarterbacks were invited — Florida's Tim Tebow, who won the Heisman last year; Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, who seems likely to win it this year, and Texas' Colt McCoy.

Statistically, it shouldn't even be an issue. Harrell had more passing yardage than any of the other three quarterbacks who will be in New York Saturday night.

He was second in the nation in passing yardage, as a matter of fact — behind Houston's quarterback (who plays in the defensively challenged Conference USA — to give you an idea of just how challenged it is, UH's QB passed for five TDs and nearly 500 yards in the season finale against Rice, and the Cougars still lost the game by two touchdowns).

For that matter, in the Big 12, Missouri's Chase Daniel and Kansas' Todd Reesing threw for more yardage than McCoy. And Tebow didn't even finish in the Top 20 nationally in that category.

Harrell threw more TD passes than Tebow or McCoy. And he only threw seven interceptions in 568 pass attempts (by comparison, Bradford was intercepted six times in 442 attempts and McCoy was picked off seven times in 375 attempts). To be fair, Tebow was only picked off twice (in fact, he's only been intercepted nine times in more than 650 career pass attempts).

Those three quarterbacks who will attend the Heisman ceremony did rate higher than Harrell in passing efficiency — but they all (including Harrell) finished in the top 10 nationally in that category.

I see no justification for omitting Harrell — and I can understand why Tech's partisans are feeling dissed.

The Raider Buzz blog says it is one more example of how Tech is "overlooked by the rest of the nation" and sees a pattern: "Tech is in a BCS conference and has one loss. It lost to the team that will play for a national title. So why is Tech ranked lower than one-loss USC, which lost to Oregon State … a team that lost four games? So why is Tech ranked lower (in the AP and USA Today polls) than one-loss Penn State … which lost to Iowa … another team that lost four games?"

I understand that Harrell isn't going to win the Heisman. I knew that when Tech got buried late in the season by Oklahoma.

But, for the season he's had, he deserves a trip to New York.

Being denied that national recognition is nothing more or less than a snub.

It's Oklahoma ... By a Nose

The Oklahoma Sooners grabbed a narrow lead over Texas in the latest BCS standings today, thus taking the Big 12 South's spot in next Saturday's conference championship game against Missouri.

Alabama ranks first in the BCS standings and will play Florida for the SEC title next week. Florida is fourth in the rankings — but it is widely assumed that, if Florida defeats Alabama, the Gators will play for the national title. If Alabama wins, it is a given that the Crimson Tide will be in the national title game.

For that reason, the SEC championship game is being treated as a national semifinal playoff game.

If Oklahoma beats Missouri, it is also widely assumed that the Sooners will face either the Crimson Tide or the Gators in the national championship game.

But, if OU happens to lose to Missouri, the logical assumption is that Texas, which is third in the BCS rankings and only a hair behind the Sooners, will move up to take the other slot in the national championship game.

I think that's a pretty safe assumption.

So, if you're a Texas fan, you'll probably have to hope that Missouri has the biggest game in its history next week.

That's kind of a dicey proposition.

As members of different divisions in the Big 12, the two schools do not face each other every season — only on an alternating basis. In 2007 and 2006, though, they did face each other during the regular season and, in 2007, they met for a second time in the Big 12 championship game. The Sooners won all three meetings by an average score of 35-19.

Missouri has had some good teams in the last few years, but the Tigers have had something of a split personality this season.

They were competitive against a good Oklahoma State team this year — but they were 1-2 against ranked opponents, and that one victory came at the very beginning of the season against then-No. 20 Illinois, which finished the season unranked and a disappointing 5-7.

The Tigers thoroughly dominated every team in their division except the Kansas team that beat them on Saturday — but they barely got past Baylor four weeks ago.

By the way, Kansas lost to all three of the teams that shared the Big 12 South title — but the Jayhawks would have won the Big 12 North if they had beaten Nebraska on Nov. 8.

Sorting Out the Big 12 South

I've been trying to figure out a fair way of breaking the three-way tie between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South.

In the latest developments, Texas moved past Oklahoma in the latest AP poll, and Oklahoma was a mere one point ahead of Texas in the coaches' poll. There are still some numbers to come, to be digested and then applied to the Big 12 South race.

Of course, the BCS will do that for us later today. But my objective is to find a way to break the tie and send the most appropriate representative to the conference championship game — without permitting the BCS rankings to interfere, influence or make the decision.

Oklahoma is, deservedly, proud of its high-scoring offense (although the Longhorns and Red Raiders also have put lots of points on the board this season).

And Texas is, deservedly, proud of its stingy scoring defense.

All of which supports my primary position, which is that football is a team game.

In spite of the massive attention that the "skill" players — the quarterbacks, running backs and wideouts — receive, football is still a team game. Every player has to do his part for the unit to succeed.

The quarterback with the best, most accurate arm in the country will rarely even get a pass into the air if his offensive line is unable to hold its blocks. The fastest, most elusive running back will find few holes to run through if the offensive linemen do not do their jobs.

And each coach handles his team differently. Coach A may take his starters out of the game as soon as they've built a lead of about 20 points or so. Coach B may prefer to wait until the score is more lopsided. Coach C may not take his starters out at all, no matter what the score.

Consequently, there may be huge — although technically insignificant — variations in point differentials.

In the great scheme of things, though, a win should be a win should be a win.

If we start rewarding teams because of point differentials, we encourage programs to schedule vastly inferior nonconference foes and keep pouring on the points long after the issue has been decided.

That means fewer and fewer nonconference games will be scheduled between national powers. The only meaningful games to be played during the regular season will be the ones that are played within a conference.

By emphasizing point differentials, we also encourage coaches to put their best players at risk of injury much longer than they otherwise would be inclined — strictly in the interest of adding another touchdown or two to the final score.

This season, it has been impressive that Oklahoma has scored at least 52 points in two-thirds of its games. And the offense deserves to be recognized for its accomplishments.

But the Sooners had to score a lot of points — half of the time, they gave up at least 28 to the opposition. In fact, only one Big 12 rival (Baylor) failed to score at least 21 points against the Sooners.

And, if Oklahoma State had scored 41 points against Texas as it did against OU, the Cowboys — not the Longhorns — would have come in to the Thanksgiving weekend with a chance of playing for the conference crown.

It's true that the Sooners have averaged about 59 points per game since the Oct. 11 loss to Texas. But it's also true that, in that same six-game span, the defense has given up nearly 31 points per game.

Most teams will win if they score 31 points.

On average, at least 59 other schools gave up fewer points per game this season than the Sooners.

Scoring alone, clearly, doesn't tell the story of a team's season.

And, just as clearly, defense is still important, even with all the attention that the Big Three quarterbacks have drawn this season.

So I've decided to look at seven team categories:

1. Passing offense


2. Rushing offense


3. Scoring offense


4. Scoring defense


5. Rushing defense


6. Passing defense


7. Total defense

I use the following point system:

Whichever team is ranked higher among the three teams in a particular category receives one point. The team that is ranked second in that category receives two points. The team with the third-best ranking receives three points. Differentials within categories are not considered.

The team with the lowest number, therefore, is the team that should represent the division in the conference championship.

Using this approach, Texas ranks first in three of the seven categories — scoring defense, rushing defense and total defense. Texas Tech (passing offense and passing defense) and Oklahoma (rushing offense and scoring offense) each rank first in two categories.

But Oklahoma earns the edge by being no worse than second in the other five categories. The final point totals were:

1. Oklahoma 12 points


2. Texas 14 points


3. Texas Tech 16 points

Under this system, Texas could have turned things around if the Longhorns had done a little better than the Sooners in the two categories where Texas was third among the three and OU was second.

Those categories were passing offense and passing defense.

Texas Tech appears to have lost whatever momentum it had prior to the Oklahoma game. The Red Raiders had a chance to make a statement against Baylor — and barely avoided an embarrassing upset. In the process, they have worked themselves out of a discussion of which they were in charge until their trip to Norman a week ago.

So the battle is between Texas and Oklahoma. Personally, I feel the best way to compare two teams is their head-to-head meeting. The outcome of that game, a win for Texas, is a fact — millions watched it on TV — whereas the assertion that Oklahoma is playing better than Texas right now is purely subjective.

It seems to me that such a conclusion puts the burden of proof on the prosecution (Oklahoma), but where is the proof that the Longhorns are playing any worse than they were playing the day they beat the Sooners? The only such evidence might be the Longhorns' last-second loss in Lubbock on Nov. 1 — but, since that time, Texas has outscored its opponents by an average of 31 points.

Nevertheless, I feel Oklahoma will probably move past Texas in the BCS rankings later today.

Whatever happens, it's sure to be controversial.

Now It's In The Hands of the Voters

The expected result may not have been achieved in the expected ways — but it's been achieved, nevertheless.

A three-way tie between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech exists at the top of the Big 12 South standings. One of those teams must play Big 12 North champion Missouri next week for the conference title — even though Missouri didn't cover itself with glory in its loss to Kansas earlier today and will deserve to be the underdog in the championship game.

Of the three, Texas' performance against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night was probably along the lines of what most viewers expected to see — a 49-9 blowout.

But then fans almost saw something they didn't expect — Baylor came close to upsetting Tech in Lubbock. The Red Raiders won, 35-28, but, as I pointed out on this blog last week, it's been nearly 20 years since Baylor beat Tech in Lubbock. Tech may have been a bit complacent.

The Red Raiders, perhaps still in a daze after being hammered by OU last week, stumbled around and fell behind by two touchdowns. Thanks to a second-half rally, Texas Tech prevailed and grabbed a share of the Big 12 South title.

And the Red Raiders would be making preparations for the conference championship game at this very minute if OU hadn't managed to beat Oklahoma State, 61-41, in Stillwater tonight.

But the Sooners won that game, so each team is 7-1, and conference rules require that the tie will be broken by the BCS rankings. The team that is ranked highest in the BCS will win the division and advance to face Missouri next week.

We'll find out how that shakes down tomorrow. In the BCS rankings before Thanksgiving, Texas held a slim lead over OU. But, as I mentioned earlier in this blog, I expect Oklahoma to get more credit in the computer rankings for beating Oklahoma State than Texas will get from beating Texas A&M.

It's hard to tell what kind of influence the scores of the final regular-season games will have on the polls, but my guess is that Oklahoma will slip past Texas and go on to play Missouri next weekend.

I must say that I don't particularly care for this wrinkle. When the BCS was created, the objective was to select only the #1 and #2 teams for the national championship. It was never intended to be used as a tiebreaker for a conference championship.

The BCS now seems to be exceeding its intended authority.

The BCS rankings are calculated by including the rankings in the coaches' poll — which means that, if the BCS rankings are used to break a three-way tie for a conference or divisional title, coaches from around the country are playing roles in deciding the winners in conferences other than their own.

That simply doesn't seem right to me.

But that's the rule that's in place in the Big 12 this season. So that's how the tie will be broken.

What about next season? Do you support the status quo?

OU's Win Probably Means UT Is Out

When Oklahoma trounced visiting Texas Tech, 65-21, Saturday night, the Sooners did more than just hang an impressive loss on a previously unbeaten team.

The dust hasn't settled yet, but we already know there will be considerable fallout from that one football game. It's possible that that many hearts haven't been broken in Lubbock, Texas, since the legendary "day the music died."

But the game may have broken more hearts in Austin.

The Longhorns, of course, have lost only once — that last-second miracle in Lubbock a few weeks ago — and they only have one regular-season game left, against their rivals from Texas A&M who have struggled through a 4-7 season. Most people expect Texas to prevail in that one.

But both OU and Tech have only one conference loss as well. And now all three schools' final games next weekend take on a significance in the Big 12 that they would not have achieved if the Red Raiders had won the encounter with the Sooners in Norman, Okla., Saturday night.

As improbable as it may have seemed when the season began, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas A&M can exert enormous influence on the outcome of the race for the Big 12 South title.

But the odds don't seem too favorable for the Longhorns.

Oklahoma must visit in-state rival Oklahoma State next Saturday — the Cowboys have often been pushovers in the past but not this year.

OSU is 9-2, but both losses came in conference play (to Texas, 28-24, and Texas Tech, 56-20) so the Cowboys can't get into the conference championship game unless several wildly improbable things happen. But they can influence who does.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, must play its final home game against 4-7 Baylor next Saturday.

The outcome of the Texas-Texas A&M game will already be known by the time both of those games kick off. The Longhorns and the Aggies will play this year's edition of their storied rivalry on Thanksgiving.

Stewart Mandel says, in Sports Illustrated, that OU's win over Tech has turned the Big 12 South into a "riddle."

But it's really quite simple.

And Oklahoma State seems to hold the key. Because the Cowboys are a ranked opponent, a victory over them will carry more weight in the computer rankings than a win over Texas A&M or Baylor.

So, while Texas has a slim lead today in the BCS, that lead could disappear when the BCS rankings that matter are calculated a week from now.

It will all depend on what happens in three games:

1. In what looks like the most likely scenario, if OU beats OSU and both Texas and Texas Tech also win (as they will be expected to do), a three-way tie will exist at the top of the Big 12 South standings. Such a tie will be broken based on which team is ranked higher in the BCS standings. In such a scenario, all three teams would be 1-1 in their head-to-head meetings, and no one would hold the advantage.
   
   Assuming that beating Oklahoma State will give OU enough momentum to overtake Texas in the BCS standings, Oklahoma would advance to the Big 12 championship game.


2. Now, if OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor, but Texas loses its focus and founders against A&M, then OU and Tech would finish in a tie for first, and OU would hold the tiebreaker.
   
   I haven't heard anyone suggest that an Aggie victory over the Longhorns is even possible. But, if it works out that way, as I say, Oklahoma would advance by virtue of its win over Tech.


3. What if OU doesn't beat OSU? Well, then things will depend on what happens with Texas and Texas Tech.
   
   If UT wins but Tech loses, Texas wins the Big 12 South title outright. If Texas Tech wins, it won't matter what Texas does — Tech will win the Big 12 South.
   
   And, if all three teams lose, we'll have a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South (adding OSU to the mix). If that happens, all I can say for certain is that no one from the Big 12 South will play for the national title.


4. Let's assume that Texas beats A&M and OU beats OSU but Tech can't rebound from losing the game to the Sooners and goes on to lose in a huge upset to Baylor.
   
   In that scenario, OU would share the title with Texas, and Texas would win the berth in the Big 12 championship game from the South division because the Longhorns beat the Sooners in Dallas last month.
   
   But Tech, as I say, is likely to beat Baylor. The game is in Lubbock, and Baylor hasn't won a road game all season. In fact, Baylor has won only two of its last eight games, and those two wins came against 2-9 Iowa State and 4-7 Texas A&M.
   
   In other years, beating A&M would be a landmark victory for the Baylor program — but, in so many ways, 2008 has been unlike "other years."

It seems to me that (other than Oklahoma State) Texas needs the most help getting into the Big 12 title game.

OU should get into it by beating Oklahoma State. And, if OU stumbles in Stillwater, I expect Tech to earn the bid to the conference championship game by beating Baylor.

Texas can win a two-way tie with OU, but it isn't likely to have the highest BCS ranking in the event of a three-way tie. And such a two-way tie with OU can only happen if Tech loses to Baylor.

How long has it been since Baylor beat Texas Tech? Well, the two teams were members of the old Southwest Conference before forming the Big 12 with the members of the old Big Eight along with Texas and Texas A&M in the 1990s. Baylor has never beaten Tech since they've been members of the Big 12.

The last victory Baylor enjoyed over Tech came when they were still in the SWC. It was on Sept. 25, 1993 — by the score of 28-26.

Bill Clinton had been president for less than a year.

Baylor hasn't beaten Texas Tech in Lubbock since 1990.

In just the last four games played between the two teams in Lubbock, Texas Tech has won by an average margin of about five touchdowns, 46.75-12.25.

Who Will Be Playing in Miami?

Saturday’s one-point loss to Iowa has doomed Penn State’s hopes for a national title, says Sam Ross Jr. in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Practically the same thing happened to Penn State nine years ago, he writes. Then ranked second in the nation, the Nittany Lions lost to Minnesota by the same 24-23 score.

"The 1999 Penn State team couldn't recover," Ross says, "losing back-to-back games to Michigan and Michigan State."

Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated writes that Penn State’s loss was a good thing for the Big Ten, in the aftermath of a couple of poor performances by Ohio State in the last two national championship games.

"The majority of the country did not want to see Penn State in the BCS title game," Mandel writes. Saturday’s loss, he says, means "the issue is moot."

Gennaro Filice writes, in his FanNation blog, that Penn State’s "national title hopes are officially cooked."

Filice admits that Penn State can still win the Big Ten title. And he concedes that it’s possible that no team from a BCS conference will finish the season unbeaten.

However, "due to the Big Ten's perceived inferiority this season, Penn State's lone blemish has far more significance than a single notch in the loss column," he writes.

The loss to Iowa, Filice says, is a "knockout blow."

Is it?

Well, a lot of things can happen in college football.

A single loss by a single point doesn’t have to destroy a team’s chances of playing for the national title — although it’s usually best if it happens early in the season, when the team has a chance to make its case in several games, rather than late in the season, when there aren’t many opportunities left to repair the team’s image.

Lord knows, I'm no fan of the BCS. But it's the system that's in use and, at this stage, I think the die may be cast — that there may be only one berth in the national title game that Penn State has a theoretical — albeit remote — chance of grabbing.

If that’s the case, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Penn State to make up that much ground in less than a month.

Anyway,

• I believe one of the slots in the national championship game will go to the winner of the SEC Championship clash between Alabama and Florida in Atlanta on Dec. 6.
  
  The conference schedule hasn’t been played out yet, but both teams have clinched their division championships and will face off in December.
  
  Of course, a lot of things could happen to remove the spotlight from this game. Alabama (10-0) still has to play its in-state rival, Auburn, on Nov. 29. The Tigers are only 5-5 this year, but rivalries are different from ordinary games.
  
  Likewise, Florida (8-1) has to face its in-state rival, Florida State (7-2), the same day.
  
  And, this Saturday, Florida has to play its final regular-season conference game against South Carolina (7-3).
  
  But if Florida and Alabama can clear their last regular-season hurdles, I expect the winner of their game to play for the national championship in Miami in January.


• Logic tells me that the other team in the national championship picture will be the team that finishes atop the Big 12 South.
  
  Right now, that would figure to be 10-0 Texas Tech, which has a well-deserved week off next weekend after defeating previously unbeaten Texas last weekend and then following that with a win over once-beaten Oklahoma State on Saturday.
  
  The Red Raiders can’t relax too much, however, because, after beating the Longhorns and Cowboys at home in Lubbock, they have to travel to Norman, Okla., a week from Saturday to face Oklahoma.
  
  Some more bad news for Tech. Oklahoma also has the week off to prepare for the showdown.
  
  And what a showdown it should be!
  
  Texas Tech has a richly deserved reputation for scoring, but the Sooners have done a pretty fair job of putting points on the board, too. Oklahoma has been held to its season-low of 35 points twice — and the Sooners have scored more than 50 points six times.
  
  But the Sooners' defense has been prone to give up a lot of points at times.
  
  If Tech can beat OU, the Red Raiders should finish the regular season unbeaten — their final opponent is 3-7 Baylor on Nov. 29.
  
  But OU could cause problems. If the Sooners win, it’s possible that three teams — OU, Texas and Texas Tech — will finish the season tied atop the Big 12 South.
  
  For that to happen, Oklahoma would have to follow the win over Tech with a win at Oklahoma State on Nov. 29 — and the 8-2 Cowboys have been no pushovers this season. They should be rested and ready — all they have to do between now and the 29th is dispose of 5-5 Colorado.
  
  But, if it does happen, Mandel writes, the tiebreaker would be determined by which team has the highest BCS ranking.
  
  "The voters would decide who gets to play for the Big 12 championship," Mandel writes. "How the heck are they supposed to do that? Would they elevate the Sooners over a Texas team they lost to? Would non-conference wins be part of the decision?"
  
  If OSU knocks off OU, that would open the door for Tech and Texas to share the division title. If that happened, Tech would win the spot in the conference championship game, based on their head-to-head victory over the Longhorns.
  
  But, because they lost recently to OU, the Red Raiders would probably be out of the national title picture by that point. And, in an ironic twist, the Longhorns might be back in it.
  
  Clearly, it would be a whole lot easier on everyone if Tech just beats Oklahoma and goes on to play in the Big 12 championship game, probably against Missouri.
  
  Which raises another point. What happens if the Big 12 South champ stumbles in the conference championship game against Missouri?
  
  Mathematically, it’s conceivable that Missouri won’t emerge as the Big 12 North champion. The Tigers still have to face Kansas on Nov. 29. The Jayhawks trail the Tigers by a game in the standings, but they could overcome that by winning their head-to-head matchup.
  
  But, for Kansas to sneak in past Missouri, the Jayhawks would probably have to win their other remaining game, which is against Texas — and that doesn’t appear to be too likely for 6-4 KU.
  
  The other contender in the Big 12 North is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers could leapfrog the Tigers (who won their head-to-head match in early October) if they sweep Kansas State and Colorado.
  
  But that would require Missouri to lose to not only Kansas but also 2-8 Iowa State beforehand.
  
  So it’s unlikely but possible that Missouri won’t represent the Big 12 North in the conference title game.
  
  Still, you never know what’s going to happen in the Big 12 Championship game.
  
  Well, Jimmy Burch of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram seems to know what's going to happen.
  
  "If Tech continues to match the poise and precision it showed Saturday while dismantling No. 8 Oklahoma State 56-20 the Red Raiders will get [to the BCS title game]," he writes. "And deserve it."


• If the unexpected happens, and a legitimate national championship contender doesn’t emerge from the Big 12, it seems to me that the next most likely prospect for the slot against either Alabama or Florida would be Southern California.
  
  USC (8-1) has to face a couple of teams that are struggling to win enough games to qualify for a bowl bid — 5-5 Stanford and 5-4 Notre Dame — before wrapping up the regular season against crosstown rival UCLA (3-6).
  
  To me, it looks like a longshot for USC to get into the national title game, but if the Trojans sweep those last three games, they’ll have to wait and see what happens in the Big 12, like everyone else. USC plays in a conference that doesn’t determine its championship in a postseason title game.


• In the extremely unlikely event that Tech, Texas and Oklahoma all drop out of the running and USC loses to one of the apparent creampuffs remaining on its schedule, the latest BCS standings suggest that the next team in line would be 10-0 Utah.
  
  Utah has two regular-season games left — San Diego State (1-9) this weekend, and 9-1 Brigham Young the next. If BYU beats Utah, the Utes are out of the running.
  
  It’s hard for me to imagine the Utes playing Alabama or Florida for the national championship. If circumstances start to eliminate the teams at the head of the list, my guess is that the pollsters would elevate Penn State — and put the Nittany Lions in the championship game ahead of Utah.

Anyway, there’s clearly some drama remaining in this college football season.

I doubt that Penn State is on its way to Miami in January — but Pasadena isn't bad as alternate destinations go.