And the National Champion Will Be ...

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National Championship

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14–0) vs. #2 Clemson Tigers (13–1)
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa
7 p.m. (Central)
ESPN

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I'm a history buff, and I tend to look at things from the perspective of history. The topic doesn't matter. Everything has a history, and that history can tell us a lot. It's a matter of recognizing what history is trying to tell you.

It is often said that history repeats itself. I tend to agree with Mark Twain, who said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." Usually, there's a lot of rhymin'.

The history of the Alabama–Clemson football series is that Alabama has dominated. To be fair, Clemson did win the first two meetings, which were in 1904 and 1905. Alabama has won the 13 games that have been played since — including last year's national championship game.

So history would suggest that Alabama will win the national championship in Tampa — because Alabama always beats Clemson.

But past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What is true of past seasons may prove to be true of the just–concluded regular season, but it is important to consider how these teams performed in that 2016 season. It has more relevance than what happened a century ago — although what happened in the past does contribute to mindset. As Vince Lombardi said, "We would accomplish many more things if we did not think of them as impossible."

You can argue that Alabama will win tonight's game because it won a stronger conference — or, at least, one that is perceived to be stronger — than the conference Clemson won.

But Clemson's Atlantic Coast Conference has beaten Alabama's Southeastern Conference in three out of four bowl confrontations last month.

In most football games, the quarterback is regarded as the position that is most critical to a team's success. In the national rankings in nine categories, Alabama QB Jalen Hurts was in the Top 20 in only one — completion percentage. He was 16th. That's a good thing, right? It is — except that Clemson's Deshaun Watson, the Heisman runner–up, was ranked eighth.

Hurts, a freshman, and Watson, a junior, attempted almost the same number of passes so it is a valid comparison — and Watson was in the Top 20 in seven categories and was usually in the Top 10. He threw 38 touchdown passes, and Hurts threw 21, but Watson threw 17 interceptions (Hurts threw nine).

Junior wideout Mike Williams is the receiving target Alabama most needs to stop. Williams caught 90 passes for 1,267 yards for Clemson, but the Crimson Tide can't afford to ignore sophomore Deon Cain, who averaged 19.1 yards per catch.

Running back isn't the focus of either offense. Alabama's Damien Harris averaged 7.2 yards per carry — but he only averaged about 10 carries per game. Clemson's Wayne Gallman ran for 16 touchdowns (Harris ran for only two), but his rushing average was a more pedestrian 5.1 yards per carry.

On defense, Clemson senior defensive tackle Carlos Watkins had 10½ sacks this season. But, as a team, Alabama's defense was the best in the nation this season. The Crimson Tide was one of only three teams to give up less than 100 yards rushing per game (the other two were Wisconsin and Western Kentucky) and forced an average of 1.9 turnovers per game (same as Clemson).

And Alabama yielded an average of 11.4 points per game; no other defense gave up fewer points, on average, this season.

Ultimately, I am inclined to think that the defense will make the difference, but, while oddsmakers say Alabama is a 6½–point pick, I am more of the mind that Alabama will win by three points.

Last week: 9–7

Overall: 204–72

Postponed: 1

Last week's upset specials: 2–3

Overall upset specials: 14–24

An Early Look at the National Championship

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Now, we're down to one more game in college football. Well, it will be the last one after the final whistle blows tomorrow.

Clemson and Alabama are headed to Tampa for the rematch that few saw coming, and I'll be making my prediction on that game about a week from now.

Well, I saw it coming. I predicted both would win in my prediction column last week. True, Clemson was an upset special — at least as far as the bookmakers were concerned — but I was more impressed with what I saw from Clemson during the season than I was with what I saw from Ohio State. As I wrote, I had a feeling that Clemson would win.

Not sure if Clemson was 31 points better, although that sure is what it was last night.

Alabama and Washington combined for 31 points as well, but at least Washington was responsible for a touchdown — the first score of the game. I really thought the Ohio State–Clemson nightcap would be a good game.

And I am hopeful that the Alabama–Clemson rematch will be good. It was a 45–40 finish last year, and you know Clemson is eager to avenge that loss.

Dieter Kurtenbach of Fox Sports writes that it could be a long night for Alabama if Jalen Hurts doesn't get better throwing the ball in the next eight days.

'Bama is an early seven–point pick.

My guess is the spread will be closer by kickoff.

Who Will It Be, Alabama or Clemson?

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And now, we are down to the final game — #1 Clemson vs. #2 Alabama. You can see the game on ESPN Monday night starting at 7:30 p.m. (Central). It will be played in University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

My record in the bowl season was good but not spectacular. I was 10–6 in my picks. That is a .625 accuracy percentage. As I say, it was good. Not great.

But I must say that I am rather proud of my record in the college football semifinals. I picked Clemson over Oklahoma and Alabama over Michigan State. Right — in both cases. Neither game was even close.

Now the tough part. Picking which one will win the national title. I expect this one to be closer, much closer.

One thing I can say without fear of contradiction is Alabama's been there — frequently — in recent seasons. It seems like it's been that way all my life. Oh, sure, I know Alabama has been through dry spells, but very little really seems to have changed since I was a boy and Bear Bryant was on the Alabama sideline. Bryant brought six national titles to Tuscaloosa, and Alabama fans grew up during his tenure with a kind of sense of entitlement that is still there. Call it Alabama affluenza.

If Alabama wasn't in the national championship conversation, so the thinking seemed to go, it was an off year. But that wouldn't last long. It never did.

The Bear never had a Heisman Trophy winner, either. Nick Saban has had two, and one of them, Derrick Henry, is on the current roster.

Yet, in spite of all that, Clemson's offense is ranked higher than Alabama's. Clemson has the sixth–ranked offense in the nation. Alabama's 35th–ranked offense is respectable, not spectacular.

Both teams are very good on defense. Alabama's defense, which always gets attention, is ranked third, and Clemson's is ranked 13th.

My guess is that it will be a defensive game, and Alabama's defense will be tested by Clemson's sophomore QB, Deshaun Watson, and sophomore running back, Wayne Gallman. Gallman headlines the 11th–best run offense in the nation.

That is where the game is likely to be decided. The Crimson Tide has been tough against the run all year; in fact, Alabama is ranked #1 in the land against the run, which suggests that Clemson may struggle to score.

If Clemson does struggle on the ground, the Tigers might turn to their passing game, which was #19 in the nation. Alabama's defense was ranked #31 against the pass so there may be some opportunity there. Watson was 18th in the nation in passing yards, he completed more than 68% of his passes, and he had 31 touchdown strikes — and he was only sacked 13 times. And yet ...

Alabama junior defensive lineman Jonathan Allen is a beast at 6–foot–3 and weighing in at 272 pounds. He finished sixth in the nation in sacks with 12. Junior linebacker Tim Williams chipped in 11.

Run defense is Clemson's Achilles' heel if you want to call it that. The Tigers are #32 against the run, which is better than most but not as good as some. It might be good enough against Alabama, though, which is ranked #23 in run offense even with the Heisman winner in the backfield.

Speaking of the ground game, Henry led the nation in rushing with 2,061 yards (including the 75 he picked up against Michigan State on New Year's Eve). You can be sure the Tigers will keep an eye on him.

Historically, I suppose there is considerable motivation for Clemson. Alabama leads the all–time series 12–2. But I seriously doubt that anyone living remembers the last time Clemson beat Alabama. It was on Oct. 25, 1905 in Columbia, S.C.

Alabama has beaten Clemson 12 straight times, and the Tigers' highest score in any of those games was 14 points on Oct. 26, 1968. More often than not, Alabama has shut out Clemson.

Bryant went 5–0 against Clemson, and his teams did shut out Clemson the first time he faced the Tigers and the last time he faced them. Clemson scored in the three games that were played in between. In the Tigers' entire 12–game losing streak against the Tide, Clemson has only scored in five games.

I'm sure the Tigers will score in this one. After all, Clemson hasn't been shut out since Aug. 30, 2003, when the Tigers lost to Georgia.

Actually, I think the Tigers will do better than score. I predict that Clemson will defeat Alabama.

Last week: 10–6

Upset specials last week: 1–3

Season: 198–58

Upset specials overall: 9–17

The Punch Heard 'Round the Football World

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"Evidently nobody in authority realized that a full–grown man who attached such importance to a game was, at best, immature, not to say a case of arrested development. The saddest part of the whole affair is that nobody at Ohio State saw the denouement approaching and protected Hayes from himself."

Red Smith (1905–1982)

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Red Smith is one of my favorite journalists. I guess it is appropriate to call him a sports journalist, and he probably accepted that during his lifetime, but he wrote that he always "wanted to be a newspaperman and came to realize I didn't really care which side of the newspaper I worked on."

Frankly, I felt the same way. Smith had a philosophy about sports journalism that I tried to keep in mind when I worked on the sports side of newspapers.

"[P]eople go to spectator sports to have fun and then they grab the paper to read about it and have fun all over again," he wrote. "I've always tried to remember ... that sports isn't Armageddon. These are just little games that little boys can play, and it really isn't important to the future of civilization whether the Athletics or the Browns win."

Thirty–five years ago, Woody Hayes would have been smart to heed those words, especially the part about how sports isn't Armageddon. If he had, Hayes' 28–year coaching career at Ohio State might not have come to an end when it did.

Hayes had a reputation for being a disciplinarian, a man who would take young men and mold them into leaders. He was a military historian who often applied principles from military history to his coaching.

It was known that Hayes had a temper that he couldn't always control. He once tried to punch a sportswriter following a loss, but he missed and hit the brother of the sports editor of another paper instead. A few years later, he almost got into a fight with the athletic director of another school during a meeting of Big Ten Conference athletic directors and coaches.

Late in his career, he seemed to have a particular animosity for photographers. He shoved a camera in the face of a photographer before a Rose Bowl game, leading to a three–game suspension, and about a year before the 1978 Gator Bowl, he took a swing at a TV cameraman late in a loss to Michigan.

In spite of his history, no one suspected, when Dec. 29, 1978 dawned, that the Gator Bowl between #20 Ohio State and #7 Clemson in Jacksonville, Fla., that night would be Hayes' last game as a college football coach.

But when Clemson's Charlie Bauman intercepted a pass late in the game to seal a 17–15 victory, Hayes punched him in front of God and the TV cameras — and, at that moment, I knew Hayes was finished.

I'll never forget that night. I was in my grandmother's home. My family had been visiting her for Christmas, but we were frantically preparing to leave Dallas ahead of an ice storm that was expected within a few days. That night, for whatever reason, my father and I decided to stop packing and watch the football game. We both watched in utter disbelief as Hayes struck the opposing player.

An era was ending in college football. It had been kind of a comforting, reassuring era when the giants from the ranks of college coaches were always there on the sidelines of the truly big games. One by one, though, they were stepping aside, and the next generation was taking over.

It was an inevitable transition. It happens in all walks of life with the passage of time, but we all know that people still get sentimental about endings. It is true of coaches, too; people are always wistful when longtime coaches leave. The coaches themselves are often wistful. It is a bittersweet time.

In many ways, the sports world is the same as it was when Hayes walked the sideline. But in other ways it has changed dramatically. One has to wonder, in hindsight, if Hayes could have remained the Ohio State football coach for much longer.

In the years after the legends of the 20th century roamed the sidelines, that drill sergeant mentality gradually fell out of favor with college athletic directors. There may be a few of them out there, but, for the most part, they have vanished.

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"... Charlie Bauman intercepted a pass and went out of bounds right where the Ohio State coach stood. That architect of young manhood laid hold of Bauman and fetched him a roundhouse right to the chops. Fists flailing, he tried to charge onto the field, but his own scholar athletes, already bruised and bleeding from their pursuit of culture, overpowered him."

Red Smith

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Hayes, it was said more and more frequently, physically assaulted his players during practice, and that did bother some people at the time, but most folks were willing to ignore it as long as he didn't do that kind of thing in public. After all, this was football, a man's game, and men are tough.

Today, a college coach who struck an athlete, whether in view of only his peers or a national TV audience, would most likely get the boot regardless of who he was. Politics — and political correctness — won't tolerate that sort of thing.

Three decades ago, schools were more protective of their star coaches, firing them only when they had no choice. And, on this day in 1978, Ohio State was left with no choice.

There really wasn't anything special about the 1978 Gator Bowl. It was the first time — and, until Clemson and Ohio State meet in Friday night's Orange Bowl, the only time — the schools faced off in football.

But the game set no records for scoring or anything else, as I recall. It is remembered only for Hayes' punch.

Showdown Saturday in the ACC

As college basketball enters its conference schedule, there may be no bigger game on this week's schedule than Saturday's game between #2 Wake Forest and #10 Clemson — in spite of the fact that the Atlantic Coast Conference is known for other North Carolina schools.

Unbeaten Wake Forest (14-0), coming off its 92-89 victory over North Carolina on Sunday, still must play Boston College tomorrow, but if the Demon Deacons can win that game, it will set up a showdown between unbeaten squads when Wake Forest takes on 16-0 Clemson in the 3:30 p.m. (Eastern) game to be televised on ABC.

And what a match it should be.

Currently, Wake Forest is fourth in the nation in scoring, averaging 85.7 points per game. Clemson is 23rd, with an 80.4 average. The Demon Deacons are fifth in the country in field goals (30.6 per game), led by sophomore Jeff Teague, who is one of the nation's best at making field goals, nailing better than 57% of his attempts. The Tigers aren't bad, either, ranking 11th (29.7), and both teams are in the Top 15 in field goal accuracy — Wake Forest is fourth (51.0%) and Clemson is 15th (48.9%)

Defensively, both teams are in the Top 25 in steals — Clemson is 10th (10.0 per game) and Wake Forest is 19th (9.4).

But Wake Forest enjoys an edge in some categories where Clemson doesn't rank in the Top 100. The Deacons are eighth in the nation in rebounds (46.0 per game), 14th in free throws per game (20.4) and 17th in the nation in blocks (5.9 per game).

Perhaps North Carolina won't have the easy ride to the conference title everyone expected when the season began.