It may seem early in the season for college football to be drawing the dividing line between its pretenders and contenders, but that is how it looked last week with several teams falling to what seemed like upsets on the surface but may really have been symptoms that things are not what they may have appeared to be.
UCLA, for example, lost to Memphis, which was pretty highly regarded when the season started but still belongs to a lower–echelon conference, one that certainly shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath with the Pac–12. Memphis had to prove itself — and it did.
Similarly San Diego State upset another ranked team from the Pac–12, slipping past Stanford by a single point. And Southern Cal needed two overtimes to subdue Texas, the same team that lost to Maryland two weeks earlier.
Suddenly the Pac–12 isn't looking so strong.
But all wins by teams from lower–tier conferences over teams from the power conferences are not treated equally. The pollsters didn't reward Memphis with a spot in the rankings — unlike San Diego State.
LSU lost to Mississippi State. The Tigers have dominated the series over the years — but they have been particularly dominant in Starkville, where they have won nearly 75% of the time — and had not lost since 1999. But the Bulldogs partied like it was 1999, winning by 30 points.
There were surprises among the unranked as well. I'm sure no one expected Northern Illinois to prevail at Nebraska. Nevertheless ...
Idle: #9 Wisconsin
Thursday
- Temple at #21 South Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: South Florida's last loss was at Temple on Oct. 21, 2016.
The Bulls have won eight in a row since then (it probably would have been nine in a row if Hurricane Irma hadn't postponed South Florida's game with UConn), but my guess is that everyone on that squad wants to even the score — as well as the all–time series (which Temple leads 2–1).
I pick South Florida.
- #23 Utah at Arizona, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Utah had lost four straight to Arizona before winning their Pac–12 matchup last year.
This will be the teams' 43rd meeting, and Arizona holds a narrow edge at home against Utah. In fact, Utah has won at Arizona only once in more than 20 years.
I think the tide is turning in this series. My pick is Utah.
- #1 Alabama at Vanderbilt, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS:
After all, Alabama hasn't lost to Vanderbilt since 1984 — and hasn't lost at Vanderbilt since 1969.
There really isn't a reason to expect anything different this time. I pick Alabama to win.
Since then Clemson has won two–thirds of its meetings with Boston College and has only lost at home twice in that stretch — both times by a field goal.
The choice is Clemson.
That's a pretty big deal, considering that Baylor had never beaten Oklahoma until 2011.
The previous order seems to be in the process of being restored. I think Oklahoma will win this one.
In the words of Dire Straits, sometimes you're the windshield. Sometimes you're the bug.
I pick Penn State.
I expect nothing to change this week. The pick is Southern Cal.
OSU seized control by winning five of the last six meetings, and it will be tough for TCU to narrow the gap this weekend. Stillwater is a tough place for visiting teams.
Oklahoma State is favored by 11½ points, and that sounds about right to me.
My pick is Oklahoma State.
Can Colorado win the rematch? Colorado hasn't beaten Washington since the 1996 Holiday Bowl and hasn't beaten Washington at home since 1990. And Washington is favored by 10 points.
But something tells me it isn't quite as certain as it may seem. I will take Colorado in an upset special.
These teams have played 57 times, and Michigan has won 43. In fact, Purdue has beaten Michigan only five times since 1980.
But they're playing at Purdue, which may be the saving grace for the Boilermakers. They've been more successful there than Ann Arbor, where Purdue has won only once since 1966.
Well, I suppose it might be close for awhile. But the oddsmakers make Michigan a 10–point favorite. I agree. Michigan will win.
Ohio State is favored by nearly 40 points. No wonder it isn't being televised.
My choice is Ohio State.
I probably wouldn't have said that when the season began, but Mississippi State's victory over LSU last week opened my eyes.
Apparently it opened the oddsmakers' eyes, too. They made Georgia a 4½–point favorite at home.
Make Mississippi State an upset special.
The Wolfpack has won only twice at Florida State in the last 50 years.
The pick is Florida State.
I pick Virginia Tech.
Miami went undefeated that season, and Toledo was 3–7–1, but Toledo only lost by 10 points in a game that was played at Miami. Only three schools — Florida State on the road, South Carolina and Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl — came closer to beating the Hurricanes that year.
Miami is favored to win by nearly two touchdowns. And even though Toledo has been better in recent years, I expect Miami to win.
Missouri is a relative newcomer to the SEC and doesn't compete in Auburn's division. This will be the first time they have met in the regular season.
But they faced each other in the 2013 SEC Championship in Atlanta, and Auburn won by 59–42. Forty years earlier, Missouri won the first meeting in the Sun Bowl, 34–17.
Auburn is favored by nearly three touchdowns. I take Auburn.
Washington State won the first two, but Nevada claimed their most recent meeting — on Sept. 5, 2014.
Will lightning strike twice? I don't think so. Washington State is my choice.
Kent went 3–9 last year. I expect Louisville to romp.
But in football the Gators have thoroughly dominated the series. They lead it 50–17 and haven't lost at Kentucky since 1986.
I expect the dominance to continue. The pick is Florida.
But the oddsmakers have made San Diego State a mere 3½–point favorite. Could the Aztecs be suffering from something of a hangover following the win over Stanford?
I will take Air Force in an upset special.
The oddsmakers think Oregon will make it 11 in a row, having established the Ducks as 15½–point favorites.
I agree. I pick Oregon.
The first two times were bowl games — the 1965 Sugar Bowl and the 1989 Hall of Fame Bowl. Two years ago, they finally faced other in a non–bowl setting, and LSU won on the road.
Now Syracuse has a chance to even the score and the series. But the oddsmakers don't think Syracuse has much of a chance to win in Death Valley. They made LSU a 23½–point favorite.
I expect LSU to win.
Overall: 51–10
Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4
Last week's upset specials: 0–1
Overall upset specials: 1–5
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