We have entered the part of the college football season that will be mostly made up of conference games.
And, since every conference has a few top–tier programs and a few bottom feeders, there will be mismatches — and possible upsets — every week for the rest of the season.
Last week was a good example.
Typically the Southern Cal–Washington State game means little. The Trojans usually win, sometimes by wide margins.
But not this year. Washington State pulled off a 30–27 upset last week and zipped past the Trojans in the rankings. Both are still in the poll this week, but that might not last. We will have to see what the rest of the season has in store.
Idle: #15 Oklahoma State, #18 South Florida
Thursday
- #17 Louisville at #24 North Carolina State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Louisville has won five of six meetings with North Carolina State, including three in a row since Louisville joined the ACC in 2014.
The oddsmakers think it will be a close one; Louisville is favored by four points. But I've seen the Wolfpack play, and I am impressed. Make North Carolina State an upset special.
- #1 Alabama at Texas A&M, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It is a given that Alabama is always one of the best college football teams around.
The Aggies, though, have had a particularly difficult time with the Crimson Tide, losing seven of nine meetings.
But what is especially galling for Aggie fans is that Alabama is unbeaten at College Station.
The oddsmakers seem to think this encounter will be brutal. The Tide is favored by 26½ points. I don't think an upset is in the cards. My pick is Alabama. - Wake Forest at #2 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: After facing down mostly ranked opponents in the first month of the season, this should seem like a breather for Clemson.
The Tigers have dominated the series with Wake Forest. In recent times, the Tigers have won 10 of the last 11 meetings; currently they are favored by more than three touchdowns.
I have to pick Clemson. - Iowa State at #3 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: It's been more than a quarter of a century since Iowa State beat Oklahoma.
That last victory came at Norman, but I don't expect a repeat this Saturday. Neither do the oddsmakers, who have established OU as a four–touchdown favorite. Oklahoma should prevail easily. - #4 Penn State at Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Northwestern has only beaten Penn State five times in 18 encounters, but the Wildcats won the last two meetings.
The oddsmakers think the streak ends here. They've made the Nittany Lions 15–point picks, and I agree. My choice is Penn State. - #5 Georgia at Vanderbilt, 11 a.m. on ESPN: Georgia almost always wins this game.
The Bulldogs have won eight of the last 10, and they have won more than 75% of the games that have been played all time.
But Vandy won when they met last year — so beware.
Georgia is an 18–point pick in this game. While this could be a trap I expect Georgia to win. - California at #6 Washington, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Washington has a solid lead in the all–time series and has won eight of the last 10 meetings — pretty decisively most of the time, too.
Last year, for example, the Huskies won 66–27 on the road. Now the scene shifts to Washington, but the oddsmakers don't think there will be much change. Washington is favored by 27½ points. I have to take Washington. - Michigan State at #7 Michigan, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is a good rivalry on the field. It is frequently competitive, but Michigan usually wins.
Not always but most of the time, especially in Ann Arbor.
The Wolverines are favored to win again, and I see no reason to expect otherwise. My pick is Michigan. - #23 West Virginia at #8 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Based on the rankings and the point spread, TCU should be an easy winner in this game.
But West Virginia has been underestimated before, and that seldom ends well for the other guys.
I expect this to be closer than the 13½ points the oddsmakers have established as the point spread, and West Virginia might even win this game, but I will pick TCU to prevail. - #9 Wisconsin at Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: It wasn't so long ago that a road trip to Nebraska would be regarded as a certain loss.
But times have changed. Don't misunderstand; Nebraska is still competitive at home, but wins are not automatic. Less than a month ago, Northern Illinois beat the Cornhuskers on their own turf, 21–17.
And Wisconsin won the last time the Badgers traveled to Lincoln, 23–21. The oddsmakers have made Wisconsin a 12½–point favorite to do it again. I agree. I like Wisconsin in this one. - Maryland at #10 Ohio State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If this wasn't a conference game, I doubt that these schools would ever face each other. And, in fact, they never did face each other until Maryland joined the Big Ten a few years ago.
The Buckeyes won 62–3 last year. The oddsmakers made OSU a 39–point favorite. I have to go with Ohio State. - #11 Washington State at Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Between 1998 and 2014, these schools met 17 times, and Oregon won all but three.
But the tide has turned in this series. Washington State won by a touchdown in 2015 and by 18 points last year.
Now the Cougars are trying to win their third in a row against the Ducks for the first time since the early '80s. The oddsmakers have made them narrow favorites — by 1½ points — to do so.
But I'm thinking that WSU might have something of a hangover after upending Southern Cal last week, and I like Oregon in an upset special. - Ole Miss at #12 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There are several reasons to think that Auburn will win.
The Tigers have won nearly three–quarters of the meetings between the two schools and typically only lose to the Rebels in clearly down years. This doesn't appear to be one of those.
The oddsmakers have made Auburn a 21½–point favorite, and I am inclined to go along with that. I expect Auburn to win. - #13 Miami (Fla.) at Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Florida State has been a thorn in Miami's side.
Miami leads the all–time series, 31–30, but Florida State has narrowed the gap with seven consecutive wins.
The oddsmakers think Miami will turn that around. They've made the 'Canes favorites by a field goal. But I'm going to pick Florida State in an upset special. - Oregon State at #14 Southern Cal, 3 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: You have to go all the way back to 1960 to find the last time Oregon State won a game at Southern Cal. Since that day the Trojans have beaten the Beavers 23 times when they have come to call.
In fact, Oregon State has won less than 10% of the road meetings with USC. The oddsmakers don't think that will change. They have made the Trojans 34–point favorites. I like Southern Cal. - #16 Virginia Tech at Boston College, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Virginia Tech has won more than two–thirds of the meetings between these schools — including two showdowns for the ACC title.
The Hokies are favored by 16½ points. That's good enough for me. I take Virginia Tech. - #19 San Diego State at Nevada–Las Vegas, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This has been a conference clash for more than 20 years — and one that San Diego State has dominated of late, winning nine of the last 11 meetings.
That isn't surprising, given that UNLV has only had one winning season since 2000.
If the Rebs win this one, it will be a shock. My pick is San Diego State. - Stanford at #20 Utah, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Don't let the rankings fool you. Stanford was ranked before falling victim to Southern Cal and San Diego State, both of whom are ranked.
But Stanford still has a good football team.
So does Utah, and the Utes have won their last three meetings with Stanford. The oddsmakers think Stanford will snap that skid this weekend; they have made Stanford a 5½–point pick.
While this probably seems contradictory to what I said a few paragraphs ago, I'm going to take Utah in an upset special. - LSU at #21 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is a competitive series and should be entertaining to watch.
LSU has had the hot hand lately, winning six of the last seven meetings, but the Gators lead the all–time series.
The Tigers are looking for their fourth straight win over Florida, but the Gators are favored by a field goal. I can come up with lots of reasons why either team will lose, but I can't seem to come up with a single reason why either team will win.
Although neither team is intimidated by the other's home field, I'll go with the home team, Florida, in this one. - #21 Notre Dame at North Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 20th meeting between these schools.
It was a series that lay dormant for more than a quarter of a century, then was revived in 2006. They haven't played every year — and if the game was being played in South Bend, I would have no trouble picking the Irish. Notre Dame is 12–0 there against the Tar Heels. But when Carolina is at home, the Tar Heels have actually won a couple of times including the last time they met there (in 2008).
So that makes me pause — but only for a second or two. The Irish are two–touchdown favorites. My pick is Notre Dame. - #25 Central Florida at Cincinnati, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This marks the third meeting between these schools. The home team won the previous two contests, which should mean that Cincinnati will win this game. But I have some serious doubts about that.
Central Florida is favored by 17 points. I will go along with that. Central Florida is the pick.
Overall: 82–18
Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4
Last week's upset specials: 0–1
Overall upset specials: 1–9
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