When Bradshaw Secured His Legacy

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On this day in 1980, Terry Bradshaw became the first quarterback to win four Super Bowls.

"He couldn't spell cat if you spotted him the C and the A," Dallas' Hollywood Henderson had said a year earlier, just before Bradshaw's Steelers beat the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XIII. As Henderson learned, you don't have to be able to spell to be a Super Bowl–winning quarterback.

In the 35 years that have passed since, only one other quarterback, Joe Montana, has won four Super Bowls. It took him eight years to become the second member of the club.

If New England's Tom Brady wins the Super Bowl a week from Sunday, he will be the third member of the club, but he will have required 13 years to accomplish it.

But on this night, Bradshaw stood alone at the top of that mountain.

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Victory did not come easily. The Steelers' opponents, the Los Angeles Rams, were making their first appearance in the Super Bowl and refused to go quietly against the Steelers, who were making their fourth appearance in six years.

Actually, Super Bowl XIV was almost like a home game for the Rams. The game was played in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. At that time, the Rams played their home games in nearby Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, which is where the University of Southern California also plays its home games. Perhaps the Rams had an unacknowledged home field advantage.

The Rams and Steelers took turns seizing the lead through three quarters. The astonishing Rams led, 7–3 after the first quarter, 13–10 at intermission and 19–17 at the end of the third quarter.

But then the Steelers sprung to life. Bradshaw hit wide receiver John Stallworth for a 73–yard touchdown pass with 12:15 to play, then Franco Harris put the game on ice with a one–yard touchdown run with 1:52 remaining.

Bradshaw received his second consecutive Super Bowl MVP award.

The 10½–point favorite Steelers covered the spread with a 14–0 fourth quarter, but the Rams, who had been 9–7 during the regular season, had proven that they could trade punches with the big boys.

For there was no bigger boy in the NFL at that time than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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And it seemed at the time that the Steelers were poised to dominate the NFL in the foreseeable future.

As it turned out, though, the Steelers did not return to the Super Bowl for 15 years — and they did not win one again until February of 2006, more than a quarter of a century later.

The Rams, as I recall, were mostly seen as a flash in the pan — good enough to continue to dominate what seemed to be a weak division but unlikely to return to the Super Bowl any time soon.

The Rams did not return to the Super Bowl soon. It took them 20 years. But they rarely won their division in the years after their first Super Bowl appearance, either.

A Truly 'Super' Super Bowl

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In its first 12 years of existence, the Super Bowl was a blowout more often than not.

A few games were relatively close (i.e., victory margins in single digits). The New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts by nine points in Super Bowl III; the Colts turned back the Dallas Cowboys with a last–second field goal in Super Bowl V; the unbeaten Miami Dolphins topped the Washington Redskins by a touchdown in Super Bowl VII; and the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Cowboys by four points in Super Bowl X.

But those were the exceptions.

That made what happened 35 years ago today in Miami so remarkable.

There was no shortage of compelling storylines. The game was the first–ever Super Bowl rematch. The winner would be the first franchise to win three Super Bowls. The Cowboys were the defending Super Bowl champions, looking to repeat.

The Steelers were favored by 3½ points. The oddsmakers clearly expected a close game.

And the oddsmakers were right. The Steelers prevailed, 35–31, inspiring more than one sportswriter to observe that Super Bowl XIII lived up to the hype. It really was super.

Pittsburgh's Terry Bradshaw threw four TD passes and was the game's MVP. Roger Staubach had three TD passes, but he would have had four if Jackie Smith hadn't dropped a sure touchdown in the end zone in the third quarter. Staubach wouldn't let Smith take all the blame. "The play was wide open, so I tried to take a little off the ball and I think I threw it too low," he said after the game.

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Perhaps the pass was a little low, but Smith knew that wasn't the whole story. "I just was wide open and I missed it," he said.

That dropped pass forced Dallas to settle for a field goal instead of scoring a game–tying touchdown, and the Cowboys never led again. They only led once all afternoon as it was — and briefly at that — after Mike Hegman stripped the ball from Bradshaw and rambled 37 yards to give Dallas a 14–7 advantage early in the second quarter.

The Steelers tied it up about a minute and a half later when Bradshaw hit John Stallworth for a 75–yard touchdown strike. They seized the lead in the closing seconds of the half when Bradshaw hit Rocky Bleier for a touchdown, capitalizing on Staubach's only interception of the day.

Dallas' Tony Dorsett led all rushers with 96 yards, but Pittsburgh's Franco Harris had the game's only TD run.

The victory — and the one the following year — sealed the Steelers' place as the team of the decade. They, along with Miami and Dallas, had two Super Bowl championships to their credit when the game began. They finished the decade with four Super Bowl titles in six years.

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When did the Steelers wrap it up? I think an argument can be made that, when Smith dropped the pass and the Cowboys had to take a field goal instead of a touchdown, that was when the Steelers began to believe they would win, and the Cowboys began to believe they would lose.

Then Pittsburgh broke it open with two touchdowns in a 19–second span midway through the fourth quarter. Harris scored his touchdown run, then Pittsburgh recovered a fumbled kickoff and built the lead to 35–17 with 6:57 to play on Bradshaw's 18–yard strike to Lynn Swann.

Dallas managed two late touchdowns, but the deficit was simply too great to overcome.

The Immaculate Reception

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When I was growing up, the Pittsburgh Steelers were the bottom feeders of the NFL.

But all that changed rather suddenly in 1972.

The Steelers won their division and appeared in a postseason game for the first time in a quarter of a century.

That game was against the Oakland Raiders, at the time the most successful team in the NFL, 40 years ago today, and it seemed that the Steelers, who had been shut out in their only previous postseason appearance, would have to wait at least another year for their first postseason victory.

Neither team managed a score in the first half. The Steelers got two Roy Gerela field goals in the second half before the Raiders took a 7–6 lead on Kenny Stabler's 30–yard touchdown run and George Blanda's extra point late in the game.

Then the most wildly, improbable thing happened.

With time running out, Terry Bradshaw faced a fourth down 60 yards from Oakland's end zone. He scrambled around and flung a pass in the direction of John Fuqua. The pass ricocheted off defender Jack Tatum into the hands of rookie Franco Harris, who scooped it out of the air only inches from the ground and ran down the sidelines for the game–winning score.

Almost immediately, it was dubbed the Immaculate Reception.

And, almost immediately, critics claimed the Raiders had been robbed. It was, one wag suggested, the Immaculate Deception.

Well, yesterday, I watched programming on the NFL Network about the Immaculate Reception. I watched the replays that have been enhanced as much as possible by the technological advances of the last four decades.

And I have concluded that it was a legitimately completed pass.

It was, to be sure, a bizarre play, perhaps the most bizarre play I have seen in a lifetime of watching football.

It has been a source of debate for 40 years, and it probably will be a source of debate for another 40 years.

There will always be folks on either side of the issue who will never be persuaded that the other side might be right.

And that is one of the things that makes sports so special. You never know when an unforgettable moment is about to occur.

Winning One For Vince

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Two days ago, I wrote of my surprise that few people had mentioned Vince Lombardi in the buildup to yesterday's Super Bowl between the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

There were a few articles that mentioned Lombardi, but none (that I know of) acknowledged the fact that Lombardi died 40 years ago last September.

Perhaps that was due to the fact that yesterday was the 100th anniversary of the birth of Ronald Reagan. That got a lot of attention — maybe deservedly so.

While the Super Bowl matched two of the most storied franchises in NFL history, mentioning two such anniversaries on the same day might have been a bit confusing for some people. It was probably fitting to yield to a former president.

Well, Reagan's 100th birthday has come and gone. The Packers emerged triumphant over the Steelers, and they will be the "defending Super Bowl champs" until someone else wins a Super Bowl — perhaps, when you consider the current state of discussions over the NFL's about–to–expire collective bargaining agreement, that should be if someone else wins one.

Oh, sure, someday someone else will win a Super Bowl. But, at the moment, it seems far from certain that next season will be played so the Lombardi Trophy may remain indefinitely in Green Bay.

And, for a pro football traditionalist like me, that's as it should be. If there is a work stoppage in the NFL that does what the baseball strike of 1994 did to the World Series, the next scheduled Super Bowl may be a casualty.

Not too many folks seemed to be thinking about that yesterday. Fewer mentioned it, even if they were thinking of it. But others — Packer fans like myself, Steeler fans like some of my friends — chose to leave such thoughts to another day. If Lombardi crossed our thoughts yesterday, it was in connection with the game being played at the time.

And that was as it should be.

Mike Lopresti of USA Today was thinking of Vince that way.

His postgame column may have been written after the game or while it was still being played, but it was in the form of a letter to Lombardi's spirit.

Speaking of the game, Lopresti said, "You would have loved it. ... It was a fight to the finish. ... You'd have loved the sheer will. ... You'd have loved [Aaron] Rodgers. ... You'd love the teamwork ... You'd love ... how this was a game that had to first be taken, and then saved, leaving the losers disconsolate."

It was Lombardi's kind of game. The only thing that might have been better, as far as he was concerned, would have been if the two squads could have slugged it out in some of the ice and snow that gripped the Dallas area last week.

If Lombardi still lived, he would be 97. In a few years, if the Packers are in the Super Bowl, perhaps a big fuss will be made about the centennial of Lombardi's birth and how the Packers want to win for the occasion.

I get the sense that wouldn't matter so much to Lombardi.

But winning mattered to him. Winning isn't everything, he said. It is the only thing.

That ... and claiming the Lombardi Trophy.

A Rivalry Like No Other

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This year's Super Bowl is a little more than a week away.

The Super Bowl has been played every year for nearly 50 years, usually in southerly, sun–splashed climes. It's been played often in California, New Orleans, Miami, and it is not a complete stranger to Texas. It was played in Houston twice.

This year, however, it will be played in Dallas — for the first time.

Lately, the folks in Irving and Dallas have been unrolling all their new facilities and vehicles and gadgets that are intended to accommodate the needs and desires of visitors in town for the big game — and earn local entrepreneurs a neat profit in the process.

Back in the summer and into the early fall, North Texans harbored hopes that the Dallas Cowboys might host their own Super Bowl, but those hopes were dashed rather rapidly.

I figure that, in the long run, that will be good news for local merchants, who are counting on the revenue from visitors from two cities. If the local team had made it to the Super Bowl, logic tells me that approximately half of the out–of–town visitors would have been eliminated.

So it's a good thing for all those folks who want to make money from this — especially the ones who run the hotels and the motels, who would have lost the income from all those out–of–towners who will need rooms for several days.

People are always going to have to eat, even if they're from a nearby community and only in town on the day of the game, so restaurateurs wouldn't have been affected quite as severely, but they, too, would have had to lower their expectations.

But the Cowboys went into a tailspin early. Between the Cowboys' and the Longhorns' declines, football dropped from sports fans' radars around here, and, remarkably, the sports talk in this area in October did not focus on football but on baseball, as the Rangers advanced to their first–ever World Series.

I grew up in Arkansas. I have lived in this area for most of the last 25 years. Until a few months ago, I never thought I would see a time during football season when baseball was the leading topic of conversation, but that is exactly what happened here.

It was gratifying for baseball fans, but it often felt, to me, as if the natural order of things had been disrupted.

There have been times when it's felt like one of those alternate reality episodes from the Twilight Zone. It was astonishing to witness the vacuum that was created when the Cowboys and the Longhorns crashed to earth. Talk about tumbling into a black hole.

Only recently, it seems, have people around here remembered that they were going to have a Super Bowl here in early February. It is almost as if the plan to host a Super Bowl locally depended upon whether the Cowboys would be in it — and, when it became clear that the Cowboys would not be in the playoffs, the right to host the Super Bowl defaulted to some other city.

It's probably going to be a good thing for the economy that Cowboys Stadium (known locally as Jerry World for Cowboys owner Jerry Jones) will host two cities, but I can't help thinking of what might have been.

Assuming that everything else would have been unchanged — if the Cowboys had been the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl, who would have been waiting for them from the AFC? None other than the Pittsburgh Steelers — and, if you've been following football as long as I have (or longer), you know what magic that matchup conjures up in one's mind.

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There are all sorts of rivalries in football, but the Dallas–Pittsburgh rivalry in the Super Bowl is unique. I guess you could say it's been a rivalry of milestones.

It began 35 years ago, on Jan. 18, 1976, when the teams met in Super Bowl X. The Cowboys, as I mentioned earlier this week, became the first wild–card team to play in a Super Bowl on that day, but the Steelers won the game, 21–17.

Even if you aren't old enough to remember that day, if you've watched any Super Bowl highlights shows in the last 35 years, you're all but sure to have seen Lynn Swann's amazing acrobatic catch from that game.

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Some folks will tell you it was the greatest catch ever made in pro football.

Then, three years later, on Jan. 21, 1979, the teams met in the first–ever Super Bowl rematch.

Superstitious people tend to be wary of the number 13, but Super Bowl XIII was far from unlucky for football fans. Not only was it the first rematch of a Super Bowl, but it would also mark the first time that a team won its third Super Bowl title, no matter who won the game.

Once again, the Steelers were victorious. The final score was 35–31, and, as one weekly newsmagazine declared in its headline on its game story, "This one really was Super."

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Part of what made it super was a fantastic fourth–quarter comeback by Dallas that was brilliantly captured in NFL Films' wrapup, which can be seen above.

In hindsight, that game featured many of the greatest football players of my youth — Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach, Tony Dorsett, Franco Harris, etc., etc. But the play that will always stand out in my memory is of Jackie Smith, a tight end who played much of his career for woeful St. Louis Cardinals teams, dropping a pass in the end zone that could have altered the outcome.

I think everyone watching the game, whether they were pulling for the Steelers or the Cowboys, felt bad for Smith, writhing in agony in the Orange Bowl end zone after dropping that pass.

"Bless his heart," I remember an announcer saying, "he's got to be the sickest man in America."

It took nearly 20 years, but the Cowboys finally got their revenge in Super Bowl XXX, which was played 15 years ago today. It really wasn't a surprise. Dallas went into that game favored by nearly two touchdowns.

With that victory, the Cowboys pulled even with the San Francisco 49ers in total Super Bowl victories with five. At that time, the Steelers had won only the Super Bowls in which they played in the 1970s — their two wins over Dallas along with wins over Minnesota and Los Angeles. Pittsburgh has won two Super Bowls since that time and now leads all other teams in that category with six Super Bowl titles.

It was also the first time that a football team won its third Super Bowl in four years. That's an accomplishment that has been matched only by the New England Patriots.

Steeler fans probably don't like to think about that game too much. Pittsburgh has been to seven Super Bowls, more than any other team, and the one they played in 15 years ago today was their only loss — so far.

As a Packer fan, I hope that will not still be the case a week from Sunday.

The First Wild Card to Win It All

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It might have been appropriate if the New York Jets had won the AFC championship on Sunday.

Why? Well, because it was 30 years ago today that a wild card team first won a Super Bowl.

If the Jets had beaten the Steelers on Sunday, the Super Bowl would have been played between two wild–card teams. I don't think that has ever happened before.

Four other wild–card teams have won Super Bowls since the Raiders did it 30 years ago, and three of them have done so since the dawn of the 21st century.

But, even in 1980, wild cards weren't new to pro football. They had been part of the playoff landscape for a decade by the time the Oakland Raiders defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in New Orleans on Jan. 25, 1981. And a wild card made it to the Super Bowl for the first time five years later.

But until this day 30 years ago, no wild card team had ever won a Super Bowl. The Dallas Cowboys came close back in Super Bowl X (which was also played in New Orleans), but they eventually lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

What seemed to surprise people the most about the Super Bowl that was played 30 years ago today was not necessarily the fact that the wild card won it — although that was surprising.

It was the relative ease with which the Raiders cruised to a 14–0 lead at the end of the first quarter — and ultimately prevailed, 27–10. When you consider who they were playing, that was positively stunning.

The Eagles had been one of the NFL's elite teams in the 1980 season, racing to an 11–1 start. Ron Jaworski was the top–ranked quarterback in the NFC. The Eagle defense kept all its opponents from scoring more than 24 points (and held most of their foes under 20) until Dallas scored 35 against Philly on the final day of the regular season.

The Raiders, on the other hand, caught just about everyone by surprise. They had made a lot of changes during the offseason, and I think most observers just wanted to wait and see how all the new parts would function together. They got off to kind of a sluggish start (2–3) and had to deal with the loss of their starting quarterback to a broken leg, but then Jim Plunkett came in, the Raiders won six in a row, and Oakland actually finished tied with San Diego atop their division.

But San Diego was awarded the division crown on a tiebreaker — which meant that, when the teams played for the AFC title, the game was played in San Diego. When they played there in the second week of the season, the Raiders lost in overtime. When the AFC title was on the line, however, Oakland surged to a 21–7 lead in the first quarter and never looked back.

It was more of the same two weeks later when the Raiders and Eagles faced each other in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles came into the game favored by three points. That surprised me because I really felt that most people believed the Eagles would win by a wider margin.

But that, of course, was not what happened.

When the game was over, everyone praised the Raiders' performance — and the Raiders did deserve that praise — but I recall less attention being given to what may well have been Jaworski's worst performance as a pro.

It was certainly his worst performance on a postseason stage. He completed fewer than half of his passes and was intercepted three times.

And by the time he threw his only touchdown pass in a Super Bowl, the Raiders had built a 24–3 fourth–quarter lead.

It was the greatest defeat, I have no doubt, of Jaworski's career.

But the flip side was that it must have been the pinnacles of the careers of the many castoffs whose careers were revived by Al Davis. The Raiders' bombastic owner picked up guys like Plunkett, Kenny King, John Matuszak and many others who asked only to be given a chance to prove that they could still contribute.

Plunkett threw three touchdown passes — two to Cliff Branch and one to King that covered 80 yards, a record that still stands. He was named the game's MVP.

What became of the team that cut Plunkett earlier in 1980? Well, I guess you could say they did all right.

That would be the San Francisco 49ers, An up–and–coming quarterback named Joe Montana emerged as their quarterback in 1980 and wound up taking San Francisco to — and winning — four Super Bowls in the '80s — starting the next year.

But that's another story.

Weekend's Best Games Set for Today

It seems to be this way every year.

Once we get past the wild–card playoff weekend and the top two seeds in each conference rejoin the rest of the postseason field for divisional playoff weekend, there is always one game — or one day — that stands out.

Last year, the high point on divisional playoff weekend — at least before the weekend began — probably was the Dallas–Minnesota game. But I guess Dallas didn't show up that day. Minnesota rolled to a 34–3 victory.

The year before, it seems to me the marquee matchup was Philadelphia against the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. In January 2008, there were two big attractions, one in each league — Colts–Chargers in the AFC, Cowboys and Giants in the NFC. A year earlier, it was the Colts–Ravens.

Sometimes these games lived up to grand expectations and produced Super Bowl champions or runners–up. Other times, the winners didn't amount to much. They just went on and collapsed in the next round.

But, on that second weekend of the playoffs, those games stood out from the rest.

This year, I see two games on divisional playoff weekend that look like they have the potential to produce Super Bowl teams — and they're both today.

Neither matchup on today's schedule holds any surprises for either participant. The Ravens and Steelers will be meeting for the third time. The Packers and Falcons will be meeting for the second time. All three of those games were decided by a single score.

• Baltimore (13-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4), 3:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS.
  
  There are so many variables in this game.
  
  Peter King of Sports Illustrated thinks this one could come down to the kickers, and he makes a good point. He observes that five of the last seven games between these two teams have been decided by a field goal, but Heinz Field in Pittsburgh is "a Bermuda Triangle for kickers."
  
  Clearly, something has gotta give.
  
  This is a pretty heated rivalry — in its current incarnation — but a lot of people seem to forget that this rivalry is a lot older than the decade or so the Ravens have been competing.
  
  Before the Ravens played in Baltimore, they were called the Cleveland Browns. That team that's been playing in Cleveland lately and calling itself the Browns? It's a substitute, not the original.
  
  I guess I could write an entire article — or two or three — on how absurd I think it was for the NFL to shift an entire franchise from a city only to award it a new one a few years later — with the same name and uniform and everything.
  
  But, in the end, the NFL really had no choice, did it? Owner Art Modell wanted to relocate the Browns to Baltimore. Preventing him from doing so would amount to restricting free enterprise, wouldn't it?
  
  Now, I was always a little peeved about how the Colts slithered away in the dead of night, leaving football fans in Baltimore high and dry. I felt those fans deserved a team, but I never wanted Baltimore to be given another city's team in compensation.
  
  In the interest of fairness (as well as perhaps trying to avoid a repeat of the Colts episode), giving the football fans in Cleveland a new team to replace the one it had lost was the only thing the NFL could do, I guess.
  
  And it is worth remembering that the NFL didn't "take away" Cleveland's franchise, either. That was Modell's doing.
  
  Anyway, once the NFL restored a franchise to Cleveland, the rivalry was renewed. But it's never really been what it was. I guess the folks in the two cities have remained rivals; they're only a couple of hours apart, anyway. But they have met 24 times since a team calling itself the Browns returned to the city, and the Steelers have won all by four, many by ridiculous margins.
  
  It's been a different story against Baltimore. The teams split their two games this season. The visiting team won both games, and the winning margin in both instances was three points.
  
  They split their games last year, too, and Pittsburgh swept the season series in 2008. The Steelers made it 3–0 against the Ravens that year when they beat Baltimore for the AFC title.
  
  But the two teams split their games in 2007, and the Ravens swept the Steelers in 2006. The teams split their series in 2005, 2004 and 2003.
  
  It is one of the most competitive rivalries in the modern NFL. Sometimes the games have gone into overtime; often, they have been decided by a single score.
  
  Based on the outcomes of the two regularly scheduled games this season, it is reasonable to think that today's rubber match will be decided by a single score as well.
  
  I'm sure that would be just fine for the Ravens, who have won six in a row since they lost to Pittsburgh at home in early December and would no doubt like to repeat their October victory in Pittsburgh.
  
  And, if the season pattern is duplicated this afternoon, the visiting team will beat the home team by a field goal. But, on what figures to be a windy and snowy afternoon, the kickers for both teams might be struggling.
  
  Can the Ravens do it?
  
  Well, let's see.
  
  When Baltimore has the ball: The Ravens were 14th in the NFL in rushing yards and 17th in passing yards, which might give you an idea of their strategy for acquiring yardage, but they might shift gears when they're in scoring range. Baltimore was more effective scoring through the air than on the ground this season.
  
  Consequently, you might see Ray Price pounding away in the middle of the field, but you might see Joe Flacco throwing to Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason or Todd Heap whenever the Ravens are in the red zone.
  
  In fact, JJ Cooper over at Fanhouse writes that pressuring Flacco is the key for Pittsburgh today. Cooper observes that the Steelers dramatically reduced Flacco's yards–per–pass average "when the Steelers got a man into Flacco's face" in those two earlier games.
  
  Is it necessary for the Steelers to sack Flacco a lot? I don't think so. It's important for the Ravens to protect their quarterback, of course, On average, he was only sacked twice per game this season. And it could only help Pittsburgh's cause if Flacco is sacked several times.
  
  But the pressure alone seems sufficient to me.
  
  When the Steelers weren't putting pressure on the Ravens, Cooper points out, they were getting nearly 10 yards per pass. And when your air defense is that vulnerable, you may try to compensate by redeploying players who ordinarily would be guarding against the run.
  
  That's when Price, a solid but not always spectacular runner, could be quite dangerous.
  
  As far as some people are concerned, Baltimore's offense holds the key to the game. Joe Starkey of the Pittsburgh Tribune–Review points out that the Ravens have long had a reputation for a great defense, but their Super Bowl dreams in the last 10 years have been thwarted by their offense.
  
  Part of their problem is turnovers, but that is nothing new. Football coaches have worried about turnovers from the beginning, and the Ravens . But it is especially crucial against the Steelers. Only New England was better at the takeaway/giveaway differential this season
  
  It's going to be challenging for Dick LeBeau, Pittsburgh's defensive coordinator.
  
  When Pittsburgh has the ball: I think the key for the Steelers is Ben Roethlisberger. He was completing his suspension when Baltimore came to Pittsburgh and pulled out a come–from–behind victory.
  
  Big Ben has a six–game winning streak against Baltimore, and he is 8–2 against the Ravens all time. That tends to make a guy confident.
  
  The Ravens' winning streak, which dates back to Big Ben's last win over them, should give them some confidence, too. But it is critical for them to make some defensive statements — preferably early — if only to provide some cushion against whatever offensive collapse may be in store.
  
  They might be able to do it. Linebacker Ray Lewis was fifth in the NFL in tackles. Linebacker Terrell Suggs was tied for 10th in sacks. Safety Ed Reed led the NFL in interceptions.
  
  If you like defense, I think you'll like this game. These two teams were in the top 10 in the NFL in preventing opposing offenses from accumulating yards — and they were #1 (Pittsburgh) and #3 (Baltimore) in preventing opponents from scoring.
  
  Look for a low–scoring game, and don't be surprised if it is decided by ... a field goal.


• Green Bay (11–6) at Atlanta (13–3), 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox.
  
  The Falcons have had a great season. They've won nine of their last 10 games, and that loss came two days after Christmas, when Atlanta's postseason position was more or less assured.
  
  The Falcons also have the knowledge that they beat the Packers on their home field at the end of November, 20–17.
  
  But I'm inclined to think Green Bay is going to win this one.
  
  I've heard a lot of talk about Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, how they are the NFC's quarterbacks of the near future, this generation's elite.
  
  In today's game, I have heard, both quarterbacks are looking to break through that playoff barrier and join the list of quarterbacks who have been successful in the postseason. This game will be the "next step"
  
  But I would argue that Rodgers has already achieved that. Actually, he did just about everything but win in his epic postseason debut last year against the Arizona Cardinals. Last week, he finally got postseason victory #1 under his belt when the Packers defeated the Eagles.
  
  It could also be argued that the Packers as a team have been in playoff mode since before Christmas, when every game became a must–win for them just to make it to the playoffs. The Packers are past the jitters stage.
  
  The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming in following a bye week. A bye week can be a good thing if a roster is filled with older players, some of whom may be banged up and need a little time to heal. But it can be a bad thing if a team is young and resilient — and Atlanta's three offensive stars (Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White) are under 30.
  
  I'm not sure a week off helps these guys. Staying in their routine, remaining active and in their rhythm is probably what they need.
  
  If they were rookies, a week off might help. A rookie can get pretty tired when a 16–game season is wrapping up, and a week off can be just what he needs. But Atlanta's offensive trio are all past their rookie years.
  
  I wonder if the week off won't hurt Atlanta, at least in the early stages.
  
  If there is one thing that was clear from playing Green Bay this season, it was that you don't want to spot them a couple of scores. The Packers' defense was second only to the Steelers in preventing opponents from scoring, Clay Matthews was third in the NFL in sacks. Tramon Williams was tied for third in interceptions.
  
  Green Bay's defense will pose a challenge for Ryan as he looks for his first postseason win.
  
  The objective will be a little different for Rodgers. In fact, I look at this as Part 2 of his attempt to be fully embraced in Packer lore as Brett Favre's successor.
  
  Last week was Part 1, and it really called upon Rodgers to accomplish two things that Favre could never do in his career in Green Bay — beat Michael Vick in the playoffs and beat the Eagles in the playoffs. Those things he did.
  
  Tonight, he will be trying to avenge a playoff loss to the Falcons in Green Bay from January 2003.
  
  On that night, the Packers entered the game with a perfect record at home for the season, and Green Bay was a perfect 11–0 all time in home playoff games. But Vick and the Falcons prevailed in the snow.
  
  Rodgers can turn the tables on Atlanta and go his predecessor one better, in a sense, by winning tonight. The Falcons aren't unbeaten at home, but they're close enough (7–1). The Packers, meanwhile, are 3–5 on the road (well, 4–5 now, I guess, since last week's win was on the road).
  
  Based mostly on that — and the fact that the Falcons beat Green Bay in Atlanta earlier in the season (although the Packers came closer than anyone other than New Orleans in the waning days of the season) to winning at the Georgia Dome — the Packers come into tonight's game as the underdog.
  
  But remember ...
  
  Rodgers was the third-best QB in NFL this year, and Greg Jennings was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards. The Green Bay defense was one of the NFL's best.
  
  Paul Newberry of the Associated Press says the Falcons are hoping to prove themselves.
  
  By overcoming the Giants, Bears and Eagles in succession, the Packers have already proven themselves.Rodgers certainly has. Now he needs to make a statement.
  
  And I think he will do that tonight. My prediction — Green Bay 24, Atlanta 14.

Incidentally, if the playoff games get out of hand, there are some good movies on Turner Classic Movies.

The Immaculate Reception

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On this day in 1972, Terry Bradshaw completed a pass to Franco Harris that scored the game–winning touchdown against the Oakland Raiders in the first round of the AFC playoffs.

Over the years, Bradshaw probably completed dozens of passes to Harris. But what made that play so memorable was the fact that Bradshaw hadn't been throwing to Harris. His target, based on the play that had been sent in from the sideline, was meant to be a fellow named Barry Pearson, a rookie receiver.

Oakland led, 7–6. It was Pittsburgh's ball, fourth–and–10 on the Pittsburgh 40. There were 22 seconds left. After the ball was snapped, Bradshaw was almost immediately under considerable pressure by Oakland's linemen, and he scrambled around a bit, then threw the ball in the direction of John Fuqua.

Fuqua collided with the Raiders' hard–hitting safety, Jack Tatum, and the ball ricocheted in Harris' direction. Harris scooped up the ball before it could hit the ground and ran in with what wound up being the winning touchdown.

It may be the most famous play in NFL history. NFL Films chose it as both the greatest play and the most controversial play of all time.

It is called "The Immaculate Reception," a name it apparently was given that very day.

The story I've heard is that the nickname was used first by a Pittsburgh sportscaster, who was reporting on the game. A Pittsburgh woman called him and suggested it. He used it, and it has been in use ever since.

I've heard lots of nicknames for games, plays and players over the years, and that one may be the most perfect I've ever heard.

What makes it perfect is knowledge of the Steelers' history — and how that play really changed things for them forever.

The 1972 season was the Steelers' 40th in the NFL. More than 75% of the time, the Steelers had finished seasons with losing records. As they entered their game with the Raiders on this day 38 years ago, they had never won a playoff game. But Harris' catch heralded the changing of the guard in the NFL.

The Steelers didn't win the Super Bowl that year. Instead, they lost the AFC Championship to Miami the next week, and Miami went on to cap its 17–0 season with a Super Bowl triumph over Washington.

But the Steelers wound up being the dominant team of the decade, winning four Super Bowls with Bradshaw, Harris, Lynn Swann and the Steel Curtain defense.

And the seeds for that great run could truly be said to have been planted in Three Rivers Stadium on this day in 1972.

That was what made it the Immaculate Reception.

Looking Ahead to the Super Bowl

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The president will not exactly be an impartial observer on Sunday.

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For football fans, I guess Super Bowl weekend is always a bittersweet time.

It's the weekend when the pro football season comes to an end (the college season wrapped up three weeks ago), and there won't be much football news for the next six months — other than the NFL draft in the spring.

But it's also the weekend when this season's champion will be crowned amid all sorts of hoopla.

Bruce Springsteen will be on hand to provide the halftime entertainment. And even non-football fans tune in — some to watch the commercials, some because it's what everyone else will be doing. I have a friend who is not a football fan, but he says he records the game every year, then fast-forwards through it to watch the commercials.

Anyway, just as a reminder ...

Super Bowl XLIII
Pittsburgh (12-4-0) vs. Arizona (9-7-0)
6 p.m. (EST), NBC

Now, let's break this thing down.

Who has the advantage at ...

Quarterback

Statistically, this looks like a mismatch. Arizona's Kurt Warner had the third-best QB rating (96.9) in the entire NFL — and the best in the NFC. His counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger of Pittsburgh, wasn't in the Top 20 in the NFL, and he ranked 12th (with an 80.1) in the AFC.

Warner passed for 4,583 yards. Roethlisberger accounted for 3,301. Warner connected for 30 TDs through the air. Roethlisberger had slightly more than half as many (17). Warner completed two-thirds of his passes. Roethlisberger completed just under three-fifths.

Neither had a distinct advantage in avoiding turnovers. They were about even in the number of interceptions they threw — Roethlisberger was picked off 15 times, Warner 14. And both quarterbacks lost seven fumbles.

To be fair, Warner attempted 129 more passes than Roethlisberger did — probably because Pittsburgh had a stronger running game and could rely on it more often. But, even though he had fewer pass attempts, Roethlisberger was sacked nearly twice as often. Big Ben was tackled for a loss 46 times while Warner was brought down 26 times.

Advantage: Arizona.

Rushing

Neither team has a 1,000-yard rusher.

Pittsburgh's top runner is Willie Parker, who ran for 791 yards. Mewelde Moore was second with 588. Each produced five rushing touchdowns.

Arizona's leading rusher is Edgerrin James, who only compiled 514 yards, probably because the Cardinals relied so much on the aerial attack. He scored three touchdowns. Tim Hightower gained only 399 yards, but he accounted for 10 TDs.

Of the two teams, Pittsburgh probably got more from its ground game this season, so ...

Advantage: Pittsburgh.

Receiving

With their edge at the quarterback position, it should come as no surprise to anyone that the Cardinals have the upper hand at receiver — Larry Fitzgerald was the NFC's leader in receiving yards with 1,431, Anquan Boldin was ninth in the NFC with 1,038, and Steve Breaston was 11th with 1,006. Fitzgerald also led the NFC in receiving TDs with 12, Boldin was third in the NFC with 11, and Breaston had three.

Fitzgerald and Boldin were 1-2 in the NFC in receptions — Fitzgerald had 96 and Boldin had 89. Breaston was 12th with 77. Fitzgerald averaged 14.9 yards/catch. Boldin's average was 11.7, and Breaston's average was 13.1

I don't mean to suggest that Pittsburgh doesn't have any weapons at receiver, but if the QB doesn't have the numbers, neither will the receivers.

The Steelers' Hines Ward was seventh in the AFC in receiving yards with 1,043. Santonio Holmes was 20th with 821 yards. Ward was tied for sixth in the league in receiving TDs with seven; Holmes had five.

And Ward was ninth in the AFC in receptions with 81. Holmes wasn't in the Top 20 in the AFC, but he had a respectable 55 receptions, which was good enough for a 14.9 yards/catch average. Ward's average was 12.9.

Advantage: Arizona.

Defense

Pittsburgh's James Harrison was fourth in the NFL in sacks with 16.0, and teammate LaMarr Woodley was tied for ninth in the NFL with 11.5. Aaron Smith wasn't in the Top 20 in the NFL, but he tied for 14th in the AFC with 5.5 sacks. The Cardinals didn't even have anyone who finished in the Top 20 in the NFC, let alone the NFL.

Harrison also led the NFL in forcing fumbles, with seven. Arizona's Gerald Hayes was in the NFL's Top 20 in forced fumbles with four.
So the Steelers seem to have the edge when it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback.

But, if Arizona's offensive line manages to hold up against Pittsburgh, how will Warner fare against the Steeler secondary?

Troy Polamalu tied for second in the NFL in interceptions with seven. Teammate Tyrone Carter wasn't in the NFL's Top 20, but he tied for 17th in the AFC with three.

Arizona's Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie tied for 14th in the NFL with four. He was also the only Cardinal in the NFC's Top 20 in that category.

Advantage: Pittsburgh.

Kicking

Both teams have accurate placekickers.

Arizona's Neil Rackers nailed 18 of 20 field goal attempts from inside the 39, and he made seven of eight attempts from beyond the 40. He made all 44 PATs.

Pittsburgh's Jeff Reed made 27 of 31 field goal attempts this season. He made all 10 of his attempts inside the 30, missed one between the 30 and 39 and made nine of 12 from the 40 and beyond. He missed one PAT.

If it comes down to the kicking game for either team, I don't see an advantage for either squad.

Weather

The game is being played in Tampa. The temperature should be in the 50-60 range with a light breeze. It should be mostly cloudy, but no rain is expected.

So who's going to win? Well, they say defense wins championships. If that proves to be true on Sunday, I think the advantage will belong to Pittsburgh.

It's always tempting to go with the underdog, but the New York Giants may have used up Cinderella's quota for awhile last year.

I predict Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 20.

Who'da Thunk It?

The Arizona Cardinals withstood the Philadelphia Eagles' comeback the other day and earned their first trip to the Super Bowl.

I have to admit that I never thought I would see the day when the Cardinals would be going to the Super Bowl, even though I saw them play when they were in St. Louis in the 1970s — during what was, arguably, one of their best seasons.

The Cardinals didn't have the best record in franchise history this season — but they proved that, once you get into the playoffs, that doesn't matter. They've demonstrated — in case anyone needed further convincing after the Giants' season last year or the Steelers' championship season a few years ago — that anything can happen once you qualify for the playoffs.

I'm not sure that charmed existence will carry on through the Super Bowl. But I do hope that the game will be competitive.

Congratulations, Cardinals.

You know, with the Cardinals going to the Super Bowl and Barack Obama becoming president, it's starting to seem like anything really is possible. Who knows what 2009 will bring?

Who Will Advance to the Super Bowl?

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This was the play that won last year's Super Bowl.

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On Sunday, we will find out which two teams will be playing in this year's Super Bowl.

One thing we know for sure is the survivors of the conference championship games will not be the teams who met in last year's Super Bowl. The New England Patriots did not qualify for the playoffs, and the New York Giants lost to Philadelphia last weekend.

With the frigid, snowy weather the northern portion of the United States has been experiencing, it's only natural for fans to wonder what kind of impact the weather will have on the games.

The weather should not be a problem in Arizona, where the current forecasts call for sunny conditions and temperatures in the mid-70s Sunday afternoon. But the NFL might wish it had reversed its schedule and permitted the Steelers and Ravens to play in the afternoon instead of the evening. Snow is a 50% possibility in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon and evening, but, obviously, it will be warmer during the day (predicted high near 27°) than it will be after the sun goes down (the predicted low for Sunday night is 14°).

NFC Championship
Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Arizona (9-7-0)
3 p.m. (EST), FOX

They say defense wins championships. If that is so, the Eagles may emerge from the showdown with Arizona as the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl.

But first, let's take a brief look at the offenses.

The offensive statistics appear pretty even. However, the Cardinals have a statistical advantage at quarterback. Arizona's Kurt Warner led the NFC in QB rating (96.9) while Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb was 10th in the NFC in that category (86.4). Warner also led the NFC in completion percentage (67.1%) while McNabb was ninth (60.4%).

McNabb managed to finish fourth in the league in passing yards (3,916), although he still trailed Warner (4,583). And Warner accounted for more passing TDs than McNabb did, 30-23. It's worth pointing out, though, that McNabb's longest pass completion (90 yards) exceeded Warner's longest (79).

But, when you think about it, it probably isn't too difficult for Warner to excel when he has receivers like Larry Fitzgerald (NFC's leader in receiving yardage with 1,431, tied for first in receiving TDs with 12, league leader in receptions with 96), Anquan Boldin (ninth in the NFC in receiving yardage with 1,038, third in receiving TDs with 11, second in receptions with 89) and Steve Breaston (11th in the NFC in receiving yardage with 1,006, 12th in receptions with 77) as targets.

As far as interceptions were concerned, the two were fairly even. Warner threw 14, McNabb threw 11.

Sixteen running backs in the NFL ran for at least 1,000 yards this season, but none played for the Cardinals or the Eagles. In fact, no 1,000-yard rusher remains in the playoffs following the elimination last weekend of the Giants, Panthers, Chargers and Titans, all of whom did have running backs who cracked the 1,000-yard barrier. Of the running backs who are still playing, Brian Westbrook of the Eagles came the closest to 1,000, with 936 yards. Arizona's top rusher was Edgerrin James with 514 yards.

Turning our attention to defense, the Eagles may be one of the few teams in the NFL that can travel to Arizona with the confidence to shut down the Cardinals' passing game.

During the regular season, Philadelphia held opposing QBs to a 54.1% completion rate while restricting those signal-callers to a 72.9 passer rating — and the Eagles had to face Eli Manning and Tony Romo twice, not to mention a game against Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.

The Eagles routinely held teams under 200 yards passing, giving up an average of about 182 yards/game. And the Eagles' foes averaged about 18 points per game, while the Cardinals gave up nearly 27 points per game.

Clark Judge of CBS Sports observes that the Eagles are on the brink of a trip to the Super Bowl for the fifth time in eight years and suggests that this time "it's more satisfying," given the obstacles he's had to overcome.

When the Eagles faced the Cardinals on Thanksgiving night, Philadelphia picked off Warner three times en route to a 48-20 victory.

I don't think it will be that high scoring again, but I think the same team will prevail.

My prediction: Philadelphia 21, Arizona 17.

AFC Championship
Baltimore (11-5-0) at Pittsburgh (12-4-0)
6:30 p.m. (EST), CBS

This may seem almost sacrilegious to Pittsburgh fans, but, at the quarterback position, I see almost no daylight between Roethlisberger and Baltimore's first-year phenom from Delaware, Joe Flacco.

Flacco was 10th in the AFC in QB rating (80.3) while Roethlisberger was 12th (80.1). Roethlisberger did outgain Flacco through the air, 3,301 yards to 2,971, and passed for more TDs, 17 to 14.

Flacco's completion percentage was slightly better than Roethlisberger's, 60.0% to 59.9%, and Flacco did a slightly better job of avoiding interceptions, throwing 12 picks to Big Ben's 15.

But Roethlisberger may have more potent weapons for receivers in Hines Ward (seventh in the AFC with 1,043 yards, tied for sixth in TDs with seven, ninth in receptions with 81) and Santonio Holmes (821 receiving yards, tied for 15th in TDs with five). Flacco's top receiver was Derrick Mason (eighth in the AFC in receiving yards with 1,037, tied for 15th in TDs with five, 10th in receptions with 80).

Like their NFC counterparts, the Steelers and Ravens do not bring 1,000-yard rushers into the AFC championship game, but the Ravens' Le'Ron McClain was eighth in the league in rushing with 902 yards and Willis McGahee contributed 671 yards. Pittsburgh's top rusher was Willie Parker with 791 yards and Mewelde Moore chipped in 588.

The Ravens did a slightly better job of scoring than the Steelers did this season, averaging 24.1 points per game to 21.7 points per game, but that edge appears to be offset by Pittsburgh's performance on defense. The Steelers yielded only 13.9 points per game while the Ravens allowed 15.3.

Both quarterbacks may be able to throw the ball efficiently, provided the weather doesn't play a significant role. Baltimore allowed opposing QBs to complete 60.6% of their passes while the Steelers permitted a 63.4% completion rate. And the Ravens picked off 26 passes while the Steelers intercepted 20. Neither team allowed opposing QBs to throw for over 300 yards at any time this season. But the Steelers only permitted 156.9 passing yards per game while the Ravens allowed 179.7.

And both defenses kept opponents from gaining four yards per carry or better. Baltimore gave up 3.6 yards per carry while Pittsburgh allowed 3.3.

Jamison Hensley of the Baltimore Sun says "Bring on the Steelers," but I say, be careful what you wish for. During the regular season, Pittsburgh edged Baltimore in Pittsburgh, 23-20, then won the rematch in Baltimore, 13-9. I think the Steelers will make it a three-game sweep.

My prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 14.

An Astonishing Weekend

No matter which teams you were pulling for in the NFL playoffs yesterday and today, it was truly an astonishing weekend.

Things got started yesterday with the Baltimore Ravens' hard-fought 13-10 win over the Tennessee Titans and continued with the Arizona Cardinals' comparatively easy 33-13 triumph over the Carolina Panthers.

Then, today, the Philadelphia Eagles eliminated the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, 23-11, and the Pittsburgh Steelers outlasted the San Diego Chargers, 35-24.

So, next Sunday, Baltimore will travel to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will travel to Arizona. The winners of those games will meet in Super Bowl XLIII three weeks from today.

All four of this weekend's games were rematches from the regular season. That hasn't happened in nearly 40 years.

And the AFC and NFC title games also will be rematches from the regular season.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh compete in the same division, so naturally they have faced each other during the regular season. The Steelers beat the Ravens in Pittsburgh back on Sept. 29, 23-20, and then won the game in Baltimore on Dec. 14, 13-9, so the Steelers will be trying to pull off a three-game sweep. As the scores of the earlier games indicate, it won't be easy.

The Eagles and Cardinals played each other in Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night, and the Eagles won, 48-20. There was a time when the Eagles and Cardinals were in the same division, but that was back when the Cardinals called St. Louis their home. Now, the Cardinals play their home games in Arizona and they compete in a different division. But, as the division winners (whereas the Eagles are a wild-card team), the Cardinals will get the home field advantage.

Much will be said about these matchups in the coming week.

My initial thought, however, was this: This must seem like redemption to Donovan McNabb, who endured booing by the fans and benching by his coach only to come back and lead the Eagles to a fifth NFC championship game. Whether he goes to the Super Bowl or not, he has the satisfaction of knowing that he made the clutch plays while the Giants' quarterback, Eli Manning, did not.

Home Field in Playoffs May Be On Line Today

On this Sunday before Christmas, the NFL's playoff picture is coming into focus, although there are still some berths to be assigned.

In the AFC, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have clinched spots in the playoffs so three others are still undecided. In the NFC, the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals are definitely in, leaving four spots to be determined.

However, there are two games being played today that should go a long way toward determining who gets home-field advantage through the playoffs — Pittsburgh (11-3) at Tennessee (12-2) in the AFC, and Carolina (11-3) at the New York Giants (11-3) in the NFC.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

It's supposed to be windy in Nashville today, and neither quarterback has been leading the league so I don't expect either team to throw the ball a lot.

The QBs have nearly identical ratings. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger has an 80.2. Tennessee's Kerry Collins has a 78.7. Roethlisberger averages about 30 yards passing more than Collins, and he has four more TD passes as well as a slight edge in pass completion percentage.

But Roethlisberger can be turnover-prone — he has thrown nearly twice as many interceptions as Collins, and he's lost five fumbles.

Hines Ward is Pittsburgh's leading receiver, and he can reach 1,000 in receiving yards if he averages 68 yards per game in the final two contests. Ward also has more receiving TDs than anyone else playing in the game — his nearest competitors are Tennessee's Justin Gage, who has five, and teammate Santonio Holmes, who has four.

Tennessee running back Chris Johnson is second in the league in rushing yards with 1,159, more than 500 yards ahead of Pittsburgh's leading rusher, Willie Parker, who has missed some playing time with a knee injury. Johnson has eight rushing TDs; his teammate, LenDale White, has pitched in 700 yards and 14 TDs. For Pittsburgh, Mewelde Moore has tried to pick up the slack during Parker's absences, contributing 537 yards and four TDs.

Personally, I'm inclined to think defense will dominate the game.

On defense, several of the AFC's sack leaders will be featured in the game. Pittsburgh linebacker James Harrison is second in the AFC in sacks with 15, and he needs only one more to break Mike Merriweather's 24-year-old team record for a season. Another Steeler linebacker, LaMarr Woodley, is tied for third in the AFC with 11.5.

Tennessee defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is seventh in sacks with 8.5, and his teammate, defensive end Jacob Ford, is 11th with six — half a sack ahead of Pittsburgh defensive end Aaron Smith. And Smith is only half a sack ahead of teammate Lawrence Timmons.

Pittsburgh linebacker James Farrior is tied for fourth in the league in tackles with 112. Harrison is the only other defensive player in the top 20 in that category — he's 19th in the league with 85 tackles.

Both teams need to be wary of the opposing secondary, but Tennessee seems to have more defenders that need to be avoided.

Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu shared the league lead in interceptions with Baltimore's Ed Reed when the weekend began, but Reed picked off two passes against Dallas last night. So Polamalu is now second in the AFC with seven.

Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan and safety Michael Griffin have five interceptions apiece, and safety Chris Hope has four.

Pittsburgh kicker Jeff Reed has made nearly 90% of his field goal attempts, and Tennessee kicker Rob Bironas has been one of the league's best all season, making 90.3% of his field goal attempts and connecting on every PAT. But the wind in Nashville today could cause problems for both.

About an hour before the noon (Central) kickoff in Nashville, the temperature is 29° (with a wind chill of 19°), which is nearly today's forecast high of 30°. A west-northwest wind of 15 mph is expected, with gusts possibly reaching 25 mph. But it's expected to be sunny — no precipitation in the forecast.

My Prediction: Tennessee 20, Pittsburgh 17.

Carolina at New York Giants

The Giants rate a slight edge in the QB category.

New York's Eli Manning is ninth in the NFC in QB rating with 86.4. Carolina's Jake Delhomme is 11th, with 82.0. The two are separated by less than 100 yards in passing yardage (with Manning holding the lead), Manning is sixth in the league in passing TDs with 20 (Delhomme has 14) and they're close in completion percentage (Manning has completed 60.3%, Delhomme has completed 58.9%).

As far as turnovers are concerned, Delhomme has thrown more interceptions (12) than Manning (10), and they're about even in fumbles lost (Delhomme has lost three, Manning has lost two).

But the Panthers have the top receiving targets. Carolina's Steve Smith has made 70 receptions for 1,240 yards and six TDs. His teammate, Muhsin Muhammad, has 54 catches for 764 yards and four TDs — but he's also dropped seven passes this season.

The Giants are also led in receiving by a receiver named Steve Smith, but, on 52 catches, he has less than half the yardage (530) his Carolina counterpart has and has managed only one touchdown. Amani Toomer has a few more yards than Smith (537) and four times as many TDs on 44 receptions.

Carolina's DeAngelo Williams is fourth in the NFC in rushing with 1,229 yards. The Giants' Brandon Jacobs recently crossed the 1,000-yard barrier and stands at 1,002, Williams' teammate, Jonathan Stewart, has 751 yards. Jacbos' teammate, Derrick Ward, has 733.

Williams and Stewart have combined for 23 rushing TDs so far this season. For the Giants, Jacobs has scored 12 touchdowns but Ward has only two.

On defense, the Giants have the edge in sacks, and the Panthers have a decisive advantage in tackles. Carolina' Julius Peppers and New York's Justin Tuck are in a battle for fourth in the NFC in sacks. Peppers has 12.5, Tuck has 12.0. The Giants' third-year defensive end, Mathias Kiwanuka, has 8.5 sacks, which matches his total for his first two years in the league, and defensive tackle Fred Robbins has 5.5.

Peppers is tied for second in the league in forced fumbles with five. Tuck has three. Five other players, from both teams, have two each.

Carolina linebacker Jon Beason leads the NFC in tackles with 122, and fellow linebacker Thomas Davis is tied for 11th with 97. None of the Giants are in the top 20 in tackles.

Neither secondary has been overly impressive against the pass. Beason leads Carolina with three interceptions, and cornerbacks Aaron Ross and Corey Webster lead the Giants, with three each.

New York kicker Jon Carney has made 29 of 31 field goal attempts (93.5%) as well as all 35 of his PATs. Carolina's John Kasay has been even more accurate, hitting on 24 of 25 field goal attempts (96%) and all 39 of his PATs.

But the kicking game could be affected by a wicked wind tonight.

East Rutherford, N.J., is expected to have snow until about mid-afternoon today, but the Giants and Panthers won't kick off their game until after sunset — and, by that time, it's supposed to be partly cloudy. During the daylight hours, the temperature is supposed to reach 36°, but the night-time low is expected to be in the teens.

Whether the temperature is actually that low during the game, it will probably feel that cold — if not colder. Forecasters say it will be breezy tonight, 22-24 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph.

My Prediction: Carolina 13, New York 10.