The NFL Draft

The 2011 NFL Draft is in the books now, and I have mixed emotions.

Back in February, the Green Bay Packers defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl.

I feel it is necessary to remind you of that because it really seems to me that everything that has happened since that day — or, more accurately, since the imposition of the lockout in March — has felt like the NFL was just going through the motions.

I felt that way when the NFL's 2011 preseason and regular season schedules were announced.

And I felt that way when the draft was conducted over the past three days.

OK, I get that these are the things that are part of the NFL's routine business. College athletes are drafted into the NFL every year, and schedules are announced every year.

And everyone speculates on what kind of impact each will have on the ultimate outcome of the season.

Still, I just can't shake the thought that 2011 will not be a business–as–usual kind of year for pro football.

Nevertheless, if the unexpected does happen and the NFL plays the 2011 schedule, I can't help wondering what kind of difference the draftees will make.

Other folks are wondering the same thing today:

• Nate Davis of USA Today has a general list of the winners and losers in the draft.
  
  And the first one wasn't even a draftee this year. It was veteran quarterback Carson Palmer — not the TCU quarterback who was chosen as his heir apparent.


• As Davis observed, seven quarterbacks were taken in the first round, tying a record. You'd think, on the basis of that alone, that the teams with pressing QB issues addressed them, wouldn't you?
  
  And yet, as Gregg Rosenthal writes for NBC Sports, eight teams still have significant quarterback issues to resolve.
  
  The position, Rosenthal concludes, remains "a seller's market."


• At NFL.com, Vic Carucci lists five players he thinks will have immediate impacts on their teams' fortunes.


• And Pete Prisco of CBS Sports says Tampa Bay, Houston and the New York Giants had "A" grade drafts.

But Prisco also points out that "[g]rading a draft the day it's completed is a challenge. It's all just speculative."

Indeed it is. Some athletes have risen to the occasion and made the transition from the college level to the pro level, and some have been so exceptional at it that they have been enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame when their playing days were over.

But some athletes fall short of expectations — and that is why most of the sports writers I have known would rather not revisit what they wrote about a given draft a few years after the fact.

They know that much of their speculation already has been proven, by the passage of time, to be wrong.

A good example is the #1 pick in this year's draft, Cam Newton of Auburn.

Like Reggie Bush a few years ago, Newton won the Heisman Trophy. And anyone who saw him play this year knows he possesses many gifts that should make him a valuable commodity in the NFL.

But you never know.

Newton could be sidetracked, like Bush, by a collegiate scandal. Or he just might not live up to the hype.

In pro football, you measure the difference between the great and the near great in inches.

And it's still possible that we may measure the distance between the most recent Super Bowl and the next regular season in years, not months.

Don't Skip Your Senior Year

I come from a family of educators.

My mother was an elementary school teacher for much of her adult life. My father taught religion and philosophy on the college level, like his father before him.

And my father's mother taught English for awhile when she was young.

I was raised with an appreciation for education, and I have often told friends that I do not think a student who has been given an athletic scholarship should be allowed to skip his senior year. I see a scholarship as being a binding commitment, like a contract.

Now, I understand about students leaving college for one reason or another. I had friends who left college when I was still in school. But none of them had been given a scholarship.

And, as far as I know, none ever went back to get his degree.

You're only young once, and people tend to get tied to life's other commitments as they get older. I'm not married, and I have no children, but I realize that it gets harder and harder to go back to school when you have children to clothe and feed and house payments to make; by the time those obligations are behind you, the spirit may still be willing but the flesh may be decidedly weak.

Prominent athletes have never asked me for advice on this topic (or any other, for that matter), but, if they did, that advice usually would be to stay in school.

It's been my observation that those who leave college early usually don't return. I will admit that there have been some exceptions to that rule, but they have been rare — almost as rare, it seems, as athletes who decide to stick it out for their senior years.

I can understand the temptation of the money and the fame — and the fear of the very real possibility that it could all be taken away in the wink of an eye. But that is a constant risk in life, is it not? Even those whose talents are not likely to make them either rich or famous run such risks wherever they are and whatever they are doing.

Athletes who leave school early to turn pro (or those who support that decision) frequently say — and with some justification — that their window of opportunity is short.

But that window might not even be open this year.

The NFL is currently in the midst of talks about its collective bargaining agreement that, so far, have been unproductive.

If a collective bargaining agreement is not in place, it is hard to see how anyone, rookie or veteran, can get a contract. And some people believe a work stoppage in the NFL could easily wipe out the 2011 season.

It seems to me that college athletes who have been in college for three years have a tough choice to make — if they haven't already made it. Should they stay in school? Or should they turn pro?

Given the uncertainty surrounding the collective bargaining agreement that is due to expire in 2½ weeks, a football player who skips his senior season to turn pro might not play in another game of football for more than a year. He'd need to find a source of income, and he would have to find a way to stay in shape until 2012 — or whenever the NFL resolves the conflict.

If he stays in school, though, he can continue to polish his skills with the school picking up the tab. He would still run the risk of getting hurt — but he could be injured driving his car or walking up (or down) a flight of stairs.

I'd stay in school. You can get your degree, and you can continue to play football ... which is a sure thing in college but a far less sure thing on the next level.

At least this year.

The Heat Is On

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Several years ago, I was watching ESPN, and a World Series highlights show came on.

The subject of the program was the 1985 World Series, which matched two cross–state rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Kansas City Royals, in what came to be known as the I–70 Series (an homage to the interstate that connects to the two cities).

I remember that World Series quite well. My best friend has always been a Cardinals fan, and I was working at the time with a woman who went to college at the University of Missouri, which is about halfway between those two cities along I–70. As long as I could remember, there had been a rivalry between St. Louis and Kansas City, but this was the first time it had spilled over into sports.

Appropriately, the song that was used as the theme for the show was "The Heat Is On," Glenn Frey's huge hit that was featured in the soundtrack for "Beverly Hills Cop," one of the most popular films of 1984.

Anyway, that tune popped into my mind when I was thinking about the St. Louis Rams' first pick in last week's NFL draft.

If you're a football fan, you probably already know that the Rams took Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford (who won the Heisman Trophy as a redshirt sophomore in 2008) as the first overall pick. Bradford didn't play much last year. He had a shoulder injury that kept him on the sidelines for most of the season.

Consequently, the Rams had to act on the assumption that the numbers Bradford posted in his Heisman–winning season were the true indicators of his talent, which (presumably) remain valid.

No doubt the Rams need someone who can revive the offense that was once known as the Greatest Show on Turf. An NFL team that averages only 10.9 points per game, as the Rams did last season, can hardly be said to be living up to that kind of billing.

The Sporting News thinks the Rams were one of half a dozen teams that improved themselves in the draft, but writer Dennis Dillon acknowledges that, while "Bradford could develop into a franchise quarterback ... he probably won't step in as the starter immediately."

I suppose that's true. A decade ago, when Kurt Warner and the Rams were putting up 500–plus points a year, St. Louis seemed to have embraced football in a way that the city never really did when the Cardinals played there.

If the enthusiasm level had remained where it was then, Bradford would be in for a lot of pressure right away. But the Rams have won only six games in the last three seasons, and St. Louis' sports fans seem to have revived their passions for baseball and hockey. It's hard to imagine anyone except hard–core football fans expecting much from him.

It might be different for Bradford if he had gone to a franchise in his neck of the woods, like Dallas or Houston or the world champion New Orleans Saints. Football fans are devoted everywhere, but there is a special intensity to that devotion in Southern cities, which undoubtedly brings quite a bit of pressure.

Dillon may be right when he says Bradford isn't likely to face the pressure of being a starter for the Rams right away, but you've got to pity whoever gets that assignment this fall. Last year's starting quarterback Marc Bulger, 33, was released by the Rams a few weeks ago; statistically, that would have made 28–year–old Kyle Boller his logical replacement, but Boller signed with Oakland in mid–April.

That leaves only 24–year–old Keith Null with any playing experience for the Rams, and his performance last season was a mixed bag at best. He did complete more than 60% of his passes, but he was intercepted three times as often as he completed passes for touchdowns, and, although he was the third–string signal caller, he had nearly 30% of the team's 44 sacks.

The other candidates for the starting job are 32–year–old journeyman A.J. Feeley, who signed a contract with the Rams in March, and two guys who, like Bradford, haven't taken their first snaps as pros.

In all honesty, I think Bradford may have lucked into the perfect situation for him, but, even though it looks like that right now, it's unpredictable. Bradford and his coaches need to be sensitive to signals that the Rams' fan base is growing restless.

The Rams are 6–42 in the last three seasons. How long will it be before St. Louis' eternally patient sports fans (they've been loyally pulling for their hockey team since it was founded in 1967 with no Stanley Cup to show for it) start demanding to get some bang for the bucks that will be committed to Bradford?

My guess is, not long.

Winners and Losers in the First Round

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I don't think it was much of a surprise to anyone when the Detroit Lions picked Georgia QB Matthew Stafford with the No. 1 selection in the NFL draft.

But there were some surprises in the first round, not the least of which was the fact that Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree was still available when the San Francisco 49ers made the 10th selection.

Draft picks are always gambles. You never know if a player who performed well on the college level is going to make that jump to the next level, but Crabtree seems to have all the tools to be the best receiver the 49ers have had since Jerry Rice was on the roster.

Unfortunately, he doesn't have someone as good as Joe Montana calling the signals — at least, not yet.

Crabtree was still available because Oakland chose Maryland wide receiver Darrius Heyward–Bey at No. 7. I was a little surprised that the Raiders took him instead of Crabtree, but, frankly, I was pretty surprised that Seattle didn't snap up Crabtree with the No. 4 pick.

The Seahawks went for defense, taking Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry. Curry complements a youthful linebacking corps that gives Seattle a great deal of flexibility for years to come. But Crabtree is a great talent at wide receiver. He has a good work ethic, and he's ready to be a playmaker in the NFL.

Baylor isn't known for producing NFL Hall of Famers, but I sort of think offensive tackle Jason Smith has a chance to finish his career with a bust in Canton, Ohio. So I wasn't surprised to see the Rams take him with the No. 2 pick. They had a big hole to fill following the departure of Orlando Pace, and Smith can fill that hole for the next 10 years at least — provided he doesn't suffer a severe injury.

I was a bit surprised that Texas' Brian Orakpo was still on the board when the Redskins made the 13th pick, but I think he'll fit in with their defense very nicely.

I'm not sure there were any surprising first–round picks — at least, as far as I am concerned. I think all the guys who wound up being first–rounders were expected to be taken in the first round, but where some of them wound up did come as a bit of a surprise.

Now we have to wait a few more months to see who pays off — and who doesn't.