Showing posts with label NFC North. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFC North. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Will He or Won't He?

As I have mentioned before, I've been a Packers fan since I was a little boy.

Consequently, for some 15 years, I was a big fan of Brett Favre. He did what no one had done since I was a child — take the Packers to a Super Bowl. And he did it in back–to–back seasons.

Along with being a Packers fan, I'm just a fan of football in general. When I see someone having as much fun as Favre had playing for the Packers — and then for the Jets and then, even for the loathed division rival Vikings — it reminds me of when I was a kid.

It's hard not to have fun watching someone else have that much fun.

But, writes Jay Glazer for FOX Sports, that fun might be coming to an end.

Glazer reports that a "source" has said Favre (who turned 40 last fall) is going to retire.

Given his history, though, what can you believe? This is the third summer that Favre has lapsed into his Hamlet shtick. The first two times, he came out of retirement and played — pretty well, too, for a man in his age bracket.

It is the perpetual drama of Brett Favre in recent years. He is an exciting — but flawed — quarterback to watch who long ago reached the age when most pro athletes are thinking about hanging it up. I've seen some who just couldn't accept the verdict of nature at first, but they became persuaded when they realized they weren't capable of what they once were.

Favre's problem is that he thinks these thoughts, but he can't bring himself to follow through on them. And I suspect that the main reason is he is a freak of nature. Even at the age of 40, he was still capable of putting up impressive numbers. Perhaps they weren't quite as gaudy as they had been when he was winning MVP awards, but they were numbers that many quarterbacks half his age would envy.

Not to mention the fact that he damn near got to the Super Bowl again. And I suspect that, if he had, we might not be having this conversation. Because, if he had made it to the Super Bowl at the age of 40, I think he would have retired, win or lose.

But he came up short, just like he did two years earlier in his final game with Green Bay. That's just too tantalizingly frustrating for a guy like Favre. He is not the sort who tends to be satisfied with making it to the conference championship game.

Glazer insists, though, that "this is the strongest indication yet that the legendary quarterback could, in fact, retire for good."

Maybe so. Not everyone agrees, though — and, at this stage, it's probably wise to be skeptical of any suggestions from anyone that Favre's career is, indeed, over.

But, if it is, the Vikings seem likely to face a problem I wrote about last year — a crisis of confidence among the quarterbacks who remain.

Actually, on that occasion, I was agreeing with something that Sports Illustrated's Peter King had written: "I'd have waited until [quarterback] Sage Rosenfels struggled — if he struggled — and then made the call to Favre. By doing it now, [head coach Brad] Childress loses Rosenfels and [quarterback] Tarvaris Jackson; how can they ever trust anything he says now?"

The problem was deferred — but now, having to deal with it may be unavoidable. Jackson only got a handful of snaps in relief of Favre last season. A year he could have spent polishing his skills was squandered, and, unlike Favre, Jackson (who turned 27 in the offseason) has never seemed like the kind of quarterback for whom time was on his side.

So far in training camp, he's reportedly taken most of the snaps with the first team, which may be a sign the Vikings are trying to prepare him to take Favre's place. Too little too late?

I'm inclined to think the Vikings will pay a price for rolling the dice on Favre last season and will slip from the lofty 12–4 regular–season record (and relatively easy 5–1 mark in their division) they had last year.

If Favre calls it quits, I look for the NFC North to be more competitive in 2010.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Packers Will Win NFC North

Heading into last weekend, Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota were tied atop the NFC North — formerly the NFC Central but, as always, the "Black and Blue Division" — with records of 5-5.

The Bears and Vikings both won, improving to 6-5 prior to their showdown in Minnesota next weekend. The Packers lost to New Orleans on Monday night.

But I think the Packers can finish on top of the division. And I don't particularly feel that I'm going out on a limb in saying so. Here’s why:
  • Let’s be clear about one thing. The winless Detroit Lions show no inclination to get their first win of the season any time soon.

    As Bob Wojnowski observes in the Detroit News, "It's hard to tell if the Lions are feeling the pressure [of losing] or if they're just an accumulation of poor players playing poorly."

    Whichever it is, Green Bay and Minnesota each have one game left with Detroit — which should be regarded as lead pipe cinch victories. The Bears have already played Detroit twice this season so the Bears have no more automatic "Ws."

    And both the Vikings and Packers pick up a "gimme" victory at Detroit’s expense.

  • Both Chicago and Green Bay have games to play with the 4-7 Houston Texans, but there’s a catch. The Texans have been much better at home (where they’re 3-2 so far) than they’ve been on the road (where they’re 1-5). The Bears have to play at Houston; the Packers get to play Houston in Green Bay.

    The Bears have struggled on the road, so I’ll predict that Houston wins that one. And the Packers will beat Houston at Lambeau Field.

  • In almost the same situation with a different home-road wrinkle, Chicago and Green Bay each have a game left against 4-7 Jacksonville. The Jaguars have struggled at home, where they’re 1-5, but they’ve got a winning record on the road (3-2). Jacksonville will play at Chicago, then come home to play Green Bay, next month.

    Again, the home and road numbers suggest advantage to Green Bay and disadvantage to Chicago, but, in this case, I’m going to predict a reversal from the Houston game outcomes. Chicago wins at home, Green Bay loses at Jacksonville.

    Hey, this is the NFL we're talking about. Inexplicable things always happen in the NFL.

  • If Minnesota gets past Chicago and Detroit in the next two weeks, the Vikings will occupy the top spot in the division at that time with an 8-5 record — and I think that's what will happen.

    But they’ve got some mountains to climb against playoff contenders in the final three weeks, when they travel to 7-4 Arizona (the Cardinals are 4-1 at home so far), play host to 7-4 Atlanta (the Falcons have struggled on the road) and finish the regular season with a home game against the 10-1 New York Giants, who are 7-0 against NFC competition.

    It’s entirely possible that the Vikings will finish the season at 8-8 or 9-7 — and possibly miss the playoffs. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they’ll beat Atlanta, finishing the season at 9-7.

  • As for Chicago, I’ve predicted that the Bears will lose to Minnesota and Houston and beat Jacksonville.

    That makes the other two games vital for them, and they’re back-to-back home games — against New Orleans on Thursday, Dec. 11, and Green Bay on Monday, Dec. 22.

    Neither opponent has played particularly well on the road, but I’m going to predict that at least one — probably the Packers, who have already beaten the Bears once and are more accustomed to the windy, possibly snowy conditions of Soldier Field than the Saints — will win in Chicago.

    That leaves Chicago at 8-8.

  • I’ve predicted that the Packers would beat Detroit and Chicago, which would give them the best division record (5-1). I’ve also predicted they would beat Houston and lose to Jacksonville.

    That leaves one more game — this Sunday’s home game against Carolina.

    As I see it, this game is all about location, location, location.

    Three NFC teams are undefeated at home, and Carolina (8-3 overall) is one of them. But the Panthers are 2-3 on the road.

    Green Bay, on the other hand, is not unbeaten at home, but the Packers have been respectable, with a 3-2 record.

    And the Panthers are trying to bounce back from Sunday’s 45-28 loss at Atlanta.

    Neither team seems to have a real edge in total defense. Carolina ranks eighth in the NFC, Green Bay ranks ninth.

    The Packers, however, are second in the NFC in passing defense, whereas the Panthers are 12th in passing offense in the NFC.

    On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers has helped the Packers settle into sixth place in the NFC in passing. The Panthers counter with the sixth-ranked passing defense in the NFC.

    And, in case you’re wondering about the weather …

    The Panthers will leave the comparatively balmy climate of North Carolina (temperatures expected to be in the 50s most of this week) to play in chilly Green Bay, where the forecasters currently predict a high of about 35 on Sunday.

    After losing to New Orleans on Monday night, the Packers will be eager for redemption.

    And winning that game should contribute to an eventual 9-7 finish for Green Bay.
That would leave Minnesota and Green Bay tied for first place in the NFC North, and the two teams have split their regular-season games.

Based on the tiebreaking procedure, the next tiebreaker is best record in division play, and I predict the Packers will clinch that by winning their games with Chicago and Detroit.

Can the Packers win in the playoffs? I don't know, but the objective at this point is simply to get to the playoffs. And I think the Packers will.