The King Isn't Quite Dead

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Well, I told you so.

Last week it was the trendy thing to do to pick #3 Florida State to turn back #1 Alabama in their much–ballyhooed season–opening battle.

A victory for the Seminoles, it was said, would accomplish two things — it would dislodge Alabama as the king of college football (even though, technically, Clemson is the defending national champion) and the SEC as the dominant football conference. It would be the dawn of a new era, they said, in which Florida State and the ACC would be college football's gold standard.

And there were a lot of folks jumping on the Florida State bandwagon.

But a funny thing happened en route to this brave new world.

Alabama beat Florida State soundly 24–7, just as I predicted last week. OK, maybe I didn't anticipate the margin, but the king clearly isn't dead and likely only faces two or three legitimate challenges — if that many — between now and what probably will be the Crimson Tide's 12th appearance in the Southeastern Conference's championship game.

No, the outcome in Atlanta didn't surprise me.

And I wasn't really surprised that Maryland gave #23 Texas a rough time. As I wrote about a month ago, I thought Texas was overrated — and I definitely still think so after Maryland's victory in Austin last weekend.

In an email conversation with a friend of mine the next day, we agreed that new Texas coach Tom Herman was bound to be on the hot seat after such a dismal debut and with Southern Cal, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State looming in the not–so–distant future.

The sports writers in Austin seem to be giving Herman some room, acknowledging that the Longhorns are "the same players that lost to Kansas" last season.

But I grew up in this part of the country, and I know how impatient Longhorn fans can be. They might not be saying it right now, but the honeymoon is over for Herman. Now comes the hard part. It was always going to be the hard part, but it was made harder still by a 10–point loss to an 18–point underdog.

Kirk Bohls of the Austin American–Statesman wrote that Herman (only the third head coach in UT history to lose his very first game — and one of the prior two had a legitimate excuse, having lost on the road to an Auburn team that would lose only once that season) was baffled by Texas' tendency to be its own worst enemy.

I am tempted to compare the Longhorns to Donald Trump and his inclination to send out Tweets at the drop of a hat. Both seem to have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot, and it is far from clear whether either will be able to right the ship in time to save it.

The Longhorns' long–time rival Texas A&M appeared to be on the brink of a major road upset, but the Aggies allowed UCLA to rally from a 34–point deficit for a 45–44 victory.

Looks like both coaches will be squirming on the hot seat this season.

Friday

• #11 Oklahoma State at South Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools. South Alabama will probably hope it will be the last.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.

Saturday

• Fresno State at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Alabama has only lost three games at home since 2012 — and each loss was to a national contender (at least after that team beat 'Bama).
  
  Fresno is coming off a 1–11 season. I hardly think Fresno will be 'Bama's fourth home loss since 2012.
  
  I pick Alabama.
• #5 Oklahoma at #2 Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's been almost 40 years to the day since Oklahoma's only other visit to Ohio State. The Sooners won that game, 29–28, on Uwe von Schamann's 41–yard field goal with only a handful of seconds remaining.
  
  Then as now, the game featured two teams from the Top 5. On that day, Oklahoma was ranked third and Ohio State was ranked fourth.
  
  I'm expecting another good, close game. And since the visiting team always wins in this series (when the teams played in Norman in 1983, Ohio State won, and the Buckeyes won again in Norman last season, 45–24), I choose Oklahoma in a modest upset special.
• #13 Auburn at #3 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: For the first half of the 20th century, these teams faced each other nearly every year.
  
  But they have only met five times since the 1971 season — and two of those games were in postseason bowls.
  
  Historically Auburn has dominated the series, winning more than 70% of the time. But Clemson has won the last two meetings.
  
  And my guess is that Clemson will make this its third straight win.
• Pittsburgh at #4 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: For most of the 20th century this was an annual in–state rivalry that got national attention every November, but it has been almost 17 years since their last meeting.
  
  Pittsburgh has been good but not great for the last several years. Penn State struggled for awhile in its transition from the Joe Paterno era but seems to be back on track. I expect home–field advantage to lift Penn State to victory.
• #14 Stanford at #6 Southern Cal, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Historically Southern Cal beats Stanford about two–thirds of the time.
  
  But Stanford has won seven of the last 10 meetings, including the Pac–12 Championship Game in 2015.
  
  I pick Stanford in an upset special.
• Montana at #7 Washington, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Washington is on its way up.
  
  I don't know anything about Montana, but I doubt that it will be much of a game.
  
  Washington is the choice.
• Cincinnati at #8 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After the way the Wolverines manhandled Florida last week, I'm a believer.
  
  I choose Michigan.
• Florida Atlantic at #9 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I can't see this one staying close for long.
  
  I pick Wisconsin.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #10 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After losing to Alabama last week — and it is certainly no disgrace to lose to Alabama — I expect the Seminoles to bounce back.
  
  Florida State should have no problems.
• Chattanooga at #12 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: It's hard for any visitor to win at LSU.
  
  For Chattanooga it should be impossible.
  
  I choose LSU.
• #15 Georgia at #24 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: It has been more than 36 years since the last time these teams met. It was New Year's Day 1981, and top–ranked Georgia beat seventh–ranked Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, 17–10.
  
  The setting is not nearly so dramatic this time — and Georgia clearly has no Herschel Walker in the backfield this time — but I predict the same outcome. I choose Georgia.
• #16 Miami (Fla.) at Arkansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: I grew up in Arkansas, and this may be the highest–profile team to play in Jonesboro.
  
  I don't know if Arkansas State is any good, but I can't imagine ASU staying in this one for long.
  
  I pick Miami.
• #17 Louisville at North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This one might actually be close for awhile.
  
  North Carolina has been to bowls in the last four seasons and even had an 11–win season in 2015.
  
  Louisville holds a 4–3 lead in the series, but the teams are tied at 2–2 in games played at North Carolina.
  
  While the home field may help the Tar Heels for awhile, my pick is Louisville.
• Delaware at #18 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACC Network: There is no reason why this one should be close.
  
  Virginia Tech will win.
• Charlotte at #19 Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central): The oddsmakers don't think this will be competitive, and neither do I. The oddsmakers make Kansas State a 35–point favorite. I agree.
  
  The pick is Kansas State.
• Boise State at #20 Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Washington State has won all four of the previous meetings with Boise State, but the teams haven't met since 2001.
  
  In the interim Boise State has had some pretty good teams. Only recently has Washington State been regarded as one of the nation's best.
  
  The Cougars are favored by 10. I can go along with that. The pick is Washington State.
• #21 South Florida at Connecticut, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNEWS: UConn went 3–9 last year. One of those losses was by 15 points at South Florida.
  
  Sounds about right, even though UConn is at home this time. My pick is South Florida.
• Northern Colorado at #22 Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The bookies aren't taking bets on this one anymore, and who can blame them?
  
  Florida should win easily.
• #23 TCU at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: When I was growing up, these two teams played in the Southwest Conference, which meant they faced each other every year.
  
  It was practically an automatic win for the Razorbacks, who lost to TCU for the first time in my lifetime when I was in college.
  
  Things have changed for both schools, and they have only met once since the SWC disbanded, but Arkansas won that encounter. I predict that Arkansas will win this one, too. It's another upset special since TCU is picked by a field goal, but it seems like old times ...
• Indiana State at #25 Tennessee, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The only time that I can recall that Indiana State had a team worthy of national attention was when Larry Bird played basketball there.
  
  I fully expect Tennessee to triumph.

Last week: 18–3

Overall: 20–3

Last week's upset specials: 0–2

Overall upset specials: 0–2

The Bear Centennial

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"If we had been more vigilant, September 11 would still be known as Bear Bryant's birthday."

Actor Fred Thompson

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If Bear Bryant still lived, today would be his 100th birthday.

But, as I observed in January, he's been dead for 30 years.

In Alabama, they've been working on plans for the centennial birthday celebration for more than a year. It hasn't been an easy task. The director of the Paul W. Bryant Museum lamented last year that the problem was deciding what could be omitted.

Bryant's life story really was like that. Every moment seems to be so significant that to leave out anything is to somehow diminish the life.

Frankly, it reminds me of the disclaimer at the start of the movie "Gandhi" — "No man's life can be encompassed in one telling."

And so it is with the Bear Bryant story.

(Last night, on the eve of Bryant's 100th birthday, I saw a post from the Huntsville (Ala.) Times about Bryant's last letter. "Bryant would frequently reply to fan mail," writes Melissa Brown, "even in January 1983, the month he passed away."

(Apparently, many of those fans believe they received the last letter Bryant wrote.)

It was just as hard, I suppose, to decide what the most appropriate salute should be.

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About the only thing that would be truly appropriate on this occasion would be if Alabama or Texas A&M, the schools where Bryant left his mark as a coach, could play a game today. But this is Wednesday, and college football teams rarely play games in the middle of the week.

However, college football teams do play on Saturdays, and Alabama and Texas A&M will be playing each other in College Station this Saturday.

That is so perfect that it almost certainly was planned. Considering the stature Bryant has in this game, it might well have been planned even if the two schools were not competing in the same conference.

Let me say right now that I have seen no evidence that it was planned — but Alabama and Texas A&M are conference rivals now (they weren't in the Bear's day), and the modern Southeastern Conference is so big now that it has two divisions. Members of a division always play each other — they alternate their games against teams in the other division, but they always play the teams in their own division.

Alabama and Texas A&M are in the same division. Last year, they played in Alabama, and A&M handed Alabama its only loss of the year (en route to its second consecutive national title). The Aggies' quarterback also became the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy.

There's enough intrigue surrounding that game to entice even the Bear — and that would have taken some doing in his lifetime. He must have faced off against just about every major football coach in the country at one time or another.

I know for a fact he faced Joe Paterno at least once because I was there. My family and I went to New Orleans to see the Sugar Bowl one year, and Alabama was playing Penn State.

In a quarter of a century as the head coach at Alabama, Bryant faced and defeated Bob Devaney, Ara Parseghian, Bud Wilkinson, John McKay, Lou Holtz, Woody Hayes, Tom Osborne, Barry Switzer. He never faced Bo Schembechler, and he never managed to beat Darrell Royal in four tries.

And Bryant once faced Frank Broyles, the longtime head coach at my alma mater, the University of Arkansas. Bryant won, and I've always been struck by an irony. After the 1941 season, during which Bryant was an assistant coach at Vanderbilt, he was offered the head coaching job at Arkansas.

I guess a little historical background is needed here. Fred Thomsen had been Arkansas' coach since 1929, and he had done some good things for the Razorbacks. He won the Hogs' first Southwest Conference title in 1933 — when Bryant was playing end for Alabama — but the title was forfeited when it turned out he had used an ineligible athlete.

Thomsen also popularized the forward pass at Arkansas. He even had different quarterbacks, depending on conditions — one for wet weather and another for dry weather. He had good years and bad years through 1937, and if he had left after that season, his name probably would be revered today on the Arkansas campus and, indeed, throughout the state.

But the Hogs went 13–25–2 from 1938–41, and there were rumblings among the fans (according to a book on the Razorbacks that was co–written by one of my former Arkansas Gazette colleagues) that the program needed a "name" coach to revive it.

Thomsen had enlisted in the service after Pearl Harbor, and it came as a surprise to his wife that the Board of Trustees, authorized by the state legislature, arranged to cut him a check — and, in the process, cut the school's ties with him — while he was serving his country abroad.

At the same time, apparently, the school was pursuing Bryant (who was born in Arkansas) to lead the team, but Bryant had enlisted in the Navy. So Arkansas endured some misfires at the head coaching position before finally getting a long–termer in Broyles in 1958, the same year Bryant went to Alabama.

Arkansas fans can only wonder what might have been if the war had not interfered. Broyles had some great years at Arkansas — he even shared a national title with Bryant once — but his career was not even close to Bryant's. In all honesty, no one's was.

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When Bryant died 30 years ago, the people of Alabama lined the highway overpasses in respectful silence to watch the funeral procession go by.

I can think of no other figure from Alabama who commanded that kind of respect — not firebrand politicians, not Supreme Court justices, no one.

The Bear was one of a kind.

Brave New World

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When they started calling him "Johnny Football," I figured he was sure to win the Heisman Trophy.

It's one of those nicknames that does more than imply success. It demands it. Like when they started calling Ted Williams Teddy Ballgame. With a nickname like that, I figured Johnny Manziel was bound to win the Heisman — someday, if not this year.

And even though I knew the historical odds were heavily against him, I knew that Manziel has had a phenomenal season — and that, after all, is what the Heisman is supposed to reward. It might have been remote, given the fact that he was sure to be up against upperclassmen who had paid their dues, but I figured he had a pretty good chance.

Even though he is a freshman, and no freshman had ever won the Heisman before.

That was sort of an article of faith when I was a kid. The Heisman only went to seniors — or, sometimes, juniors. Archie Griffin won it twice back in the 1970s. He's the only football player to do that — so far.

I remember when he did it. No one thought it could be done. A Heisman was a one–to–a–customer kind of thing. Griffin aside, it really was believed that a man could only win the Heisman once — and only after he had paid his dues. Juniors rarely won it; sophomores and freshmen never did.

But that has changed in recent years. The sophomore barrier went down a few years ago and, with Manziel's victory, the Heisman is no longer forbidden to freshmen, either.

(I haven't heard it mentioned much — everyone has been so carried away with Manziel becoming the first freshman to win the trophy — but, in the process of his achievement, Manziel kept Notre Dame's Manti Te'o from becoming the first strictly defensive player to win it. That's a barrier that may well last forever.)

It's one more thing that I have lived to see that I never thought I would live to see.

The times, they truly are a–changing.

But I'm not sure that I'll see a repeat next season. Manziel's coaches insist there will be no decline in production in 2013, but, as Sam Gardner observes for Fox Sports, Manziel will "carry a weight much more substantial than his 25–pound Heisman Trophy for a team that won't sneak up on anyone."

The Aggies were helped by the low expectations that accompanied their move to the Southeastern Conference, and Manziel had no spotlight on him when 2012 began.

All that will change next year.

All Shook Up

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The college football landscape shifted last weekend when Texas A&M upset the top–ranked team in the nation, Alabama.

And some Aggie hearts beat a little faster at the thought of playing in the SEC Championship game next month — but the fact is that Alabama, which is still the highest–ranked team in the SEC, almost certainly will be playing for the conference title.

Alabama has only one conference game remaining — against 2–8 Auburn in the 71st edition of the Iron Bowl next Saturday. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but the notion that this Auburn team might hand Alabama its second conference loss is just a little far–fetched, it seems to me.

However, just to play devil's advocate, let's say that Auburn pulls off an upset. That could mean a tie in the SEC West with either Texas A&M or LSU or both. That much isn't clear yet. A&M might stumble against Missouri, and LSU might falter against Ole Miss or Arkansas. Neither is likely, but they remain possible until the games are played.

What would be clear is that the SEC's streak of six consecutive national titles will end.

That may be the case, anyway. Top–ranked Oregon may be playing for the national title in January, but the Ducks must beat three straight ranked teams to get there.

Kansas State might be able to punch its ticket for the January showdown in its last two games, but that remains to be seen — as it does for the nation's third–ranked team, Notre Dame.

The next couple of weeks promise to be very interesting.

Idle: #18 Texas, #20 Louisville

Today

• #14 Stanford at #1 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I know there is a lot of talk on the West Coast these days about Oregon possibly playing for the national championship.
  
  Such talk was going on even before Alabama lost to Texas A&M last weekend, but now that Oregon is in the top spot, I suppose it has accelerated.
  
  Certainly, Alabama's loss put additional pressure on the Ducks, who were sure to be feeling more stress this week, anyway, with their upcoming game against #14 Stanford — and, if the Ducks win that one, there will be even more pressure when they face their in–state rivals from Oregon State the following week.
  
  Then, of course, if the Ducks win those two games, there will be the pressure of the Pac–12 Championship game, which figures to be against the winner of today's game between USC and UCLA.
  
  Neither Kansas State nor Notre Dame will have to play in a conference championship game, but the Irish will have to play #21 Southern Cal on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
  
  In fact, K–State may have the easiest road to the national championship game of the top three. After facing Baylor this weekend, the Wildcats have the next week off before closing the season against #18 Texas. (Not that beating Texas will be easy, but at least the Wildcats will get to face the Longhorns on their home turf.)
  
  But back to the Oregon–Stanford game ...
  
  The historical record suggests that Stanford would be a lot better off playing this game at home where the Cardinal have beaten the Ducks nearly 63% of the time. When the game has been played in Eugene, the Ducks have been victorious more than half the time.
  
  Oregon has by far the better offense. Ranked third in the country, it is light years ahead of Stanford's 84th–ranked offense.
  
  It's not entirely bleak for Stanford, though. The Cardinal defense may pose the stiffest challenge that Oregon will face in Pac–12 play this year (even though the Oregon State game is looming next week).
  
  But I still think Oregon will prevail at home.
• #2 Kansas State at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Well, even though KSU is undefeated and Baylor is just barely flirting with the .500 mark, this might not be quite so easy for the Wildcats.
  
  KSU is 4–0 at home against Baylor, but the Wildcats are just 3–2 at Waco — and Baylor has beaten K–State the last two times they have played there.
  
  The Bears have the better offense by far. Baylor is #2 in the nation in that category (compared to K–State at #47). But defense, they say, wins championships, and the Wildcats' 34th–ranked defense is much better than Baylor's (#120).
  
  I figure KSU will have its ups and downs against Baylor's offense — but when the Wildcats have the ball, they almost can't help being productive against the Baylor defense. Only one of Baylor's 10 opponents has failed to score at least 23 points, and most have scored at least 35. Kansas State, on the other hand, has scored 44 points or more six times this season.
  
  (Some of those points were scored by the defense, but most of them were scored on offense.)
  
  It seems obvious to me that Kansas State will win this game.
• Wake Forest at #3 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams met for the first time last season, and Notre Dame, en route to an 8–5 mark, won the game, 24–17.
  
  That game was played at Wake Forest. This time, the teams meet in South Bend.
  
  As I mentioned, Notre Dame has the challenge of facing USC next week, but, as long as the Irish don't overlook the 5–5 Demon Deacons, they ought to be undefeated when they face the Trojans.
  
  After all, Notre Dame's eighth–ranked defense should dispose of Wake Forest's 111th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has been adequate but not great, Wake Forest's defense appears ill–equipped to stop it.
  
  Notre Dame should win.
• Western Carolina at #4 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I can't understand why anyone would want to televise this game — but, for some reason, many teams in the Top 25 are facing non–Division 1–A opponents this weekend — and, barring any extremely unforeseen developments, they should have no trouble.
  
  One would think that Alabama, with the second–best defense in the land, would be unimpressed with Western Carolina. I fully expect Alabama to win.
• Georgia Southern at #5 Georgia: This game has a lot in common with the Alabama game — one of the best SEC teams is playing at home against a non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Unless something really unexpected happens, I believe Georgia will win.
• #6 Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams almost always have winning records when they face each other.
  
  And Ohio State almost always wins.
  
  The Buckeyes have been much more successful at home, but they've been successful against Wisconsin wherever the game has been played. At Wisconsin, Ohio State is 25–11–2 — but the Badgers have won two of the last three games that were played there.
  
  And logic suggests that, if Wisconsin can make it three of four, the Badgers (who would then be 8–3) will return to the Top 25.
  
  I think it should be a good game. Ohio State has the better offense, but Wisconsin's defense currently ranks in the Top 20 nationally — and should be up to the task of stopping the Buckeyes.
  
  I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Wisconsin in a mild upset.
• Jacksonville State at #7 Florida: Like the Alabama and Georgia games, I see no reason why the home team should lose to this non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Florida should win easily.
• Ole Miss at #8 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Known as the "Magnolia Bowl," this rivalry dates back to the 19th century.
  
  Its heyday came in the 1950s and 1960s, when both teams brought lofty rankings and winning records into their annual clashes (they even met in the Sugar Bowl once).
  
  In a sort of general view of sports history, not much has changed for LSU, which is ranked eighth in the land, but Ole Miss (5–5) has struggled.
  
  Ole Miss has the better offense, but LSU's defense (#3 in the nation) seems well prepared for it.
  
  That — and home field, where LSU is 37–23–1 against Ole Miss — seems likely to propel LSU to victory.
• Sam Houston State at #9 Texas A&M: This must seem like a real breather to the Aggies, who have won eight of their last nine games (the exception being a five–point loss to LSU last month).
  
  And, after winning on the road against the top–ranked team in the nation last week, Texas A&M simply can't be impressed with Sam Houston State.
  
  A BCS bowl berth is possible for the Aggies if they keep their eyes on the prize, and I see no reason why they shouldn't do that today. Texas A&M should win this game.
• #10 Florida State at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much reason, frankly, for Maryland fans to watch this game — either in person or on TV.
  
  Historically, Florida State has won 20 of the 22 meetings between the schools and has never lost at home — so I guess there is one good thing about this game for Maryland fans. It's being played in College Park, not Tallahassee.
  
  It could be depressing for Terps fans when they have the ball. Maryland's offense is the worst in the land while Florida State's defense is the best. Things might be much better for Maryland when Florida State has the ball. The Seminoles are #11 in the country in offense, but the Terps, who are 16th in defense, might be able to stop them.
  
  One wonders, though, if the Terps might stop themselves. Statistically, Maryland's offense is –10 in turnovers, and the thought of cashing in on that and beefing up the defensive statistics must be motivating for FSU's defense.
  
  On the flip side, I wonder if Florida State can maintain its focus, knowing that its annual rivalry game with #7 Florida is only a week away.
  
  Can Maryland win? I doubt it. I pick Florida State.
• North Carolina State at #11 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When North Carolina State beat Clemson last year, it snapped a seven–game Clemson winning streak against the Wolfpack.
  
  But the 6–4 Wolfpack still have plenty to play for — like a more prestigious bowl appearance — and Clemson could well be distracted by next week's game with South Carolina.
  
  But if Clemson's offense (seventh in the nation) remains focused, it should be able to dominate N.C. State's defense (61st in the country) and give the Tigers the winning edge. I figure Clemson's defense (#57 in the land) is evenly matched with N.C. State's offense (#59).
  
  I pick Clemson.
• Wofford at #12 South Carolina: I really thought South Carolina would struggle after losing its marquee running back to an injury a few weeks ago.
  
  But the Gamecocks have persevered, and they should be 9–2 after beating this non–Division 1–A foe — if they don't start daydreaming about their game next week against #11 Clemson.
  
  I don't think they will. I think South Carolina will win.
• #13 Oklahoma at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It should be rather cold in West Virginia tonight.
  
  I used to live in Oklahoma so I know the OU players are accustomed to the cold weather, but this isn't like what they have been dealing with lately. It's going to be in the mid–50s (at best) during the day, and temperatures are expected to decline rapidly after the sun goes down.
  
  It's a modest series to date — only four games have been played — and the teams have never played in Morgantown so this will be a first — and a chilly one at that.
  
  The offenses are pretty even — OU is #16, West Virginia is #18 — so that means defenses probably will be decisive — and that is where OU (#20) has a huge edge over West Virginia (#110).
  
  I predict that Oklahoma will win.
• California at #15 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: I'm sure it must be tempting for the Beavers to overlook the Bears with the showdown with #1 Oregon coming up next week, but a loss to the Bears would knock Oregon State out of the running for the Pac–12 championship game.
  
  Well, they're probably out of the running for that, anyway, what with Stanford and Oregon playing each other today. Oregon is undefeated and Stanford only has one loss in Pac–12 play whereas Oregon State has two conference losses. Logic says the winner of the Oregon–Stanford game will represent the division in the conference championship game.
  
  But, as this day begins, a three–way tie at the top of the division is still mathematically possible and, if that happens, I don't know what the Pac–12's tiebreaker would be.
  
  If there is to be such a tie, two things must happen this week: Stanford must beat Oregon this afternoon and Oregon State must beat California tonight.
  
  I have already predicted that Stanford will not hold up its end of the bargain, but Oregon State has a significantly better defense than California. Both offenses are rather average so defense figures to dominate in this game.
  
  Consequently, I will pick Oregon State.
• Minnesota at #16 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I have found that many people mistakenly believe that, because Nebraska is a newcomer to the Big Ten, its series with most of the members of the conference are rather sparse.
  
  That may well be the case with some of the schools, but Nebraska has a long history with Minnesota. They've played 52 times — but last year, Nebraska's first in the Big Ten, was the first time the teams had faced each other in more than two decades.
  
  Nebraska's win in 2011 was its 15th straight against Minnesota. The Gophers haven't beaten the Cornhuskers since 1960, and it is hard to imagine 6–4 Minnesota topping an 8–2 Nebraska team that has lost only to #17 UCLA and #6 Ohio State.
  
  Especially since Nebraska enjoys such a huge advantage on offense (the Cornhuskers are #17 in the country while Minnesota is #96). Minnesota actually has the edge on defense, but it is narrow (Minnesota is #25; Nebraska is #28).
  
  On the strength of a superior offense and the home field advantage, I choose Nebraska.
• #21 USC at #17 UCLA, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was a kid, the USC–UCLA game was one of the top rivalry games that was televised every year — usually during the Thanksgiving season.
  
  USC usually won the game as it has throughout history (the Trojans have won about 61% of the time, and they've won 12 of the last 13) — but the thing that should concern this USC football team about this UCLA team is that UCLA has the #13 offense in the nation — and the third best in the Pac–12, a conference that is known for flashy offenses.
  
  Southern Cal has a pretty good offense, too (#28), and logic says it shouldn't have much trouble with UCLA's #75 defense. But neither should UCLA's offense have too much difficulty with USC's #58 defense.
  
  It seems to me to be a matter of which offense executes its game plan the most effectively. I'm guessing it will be UCLA.
• Utah State at #19 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Here's something I'll bet you didn't know — Louisiana Tech has the top–ranked offense in the nation.
  
  OK, maybe you did know it, but even if Utah State knows it, it can't be very encouraging — especially since Louisiana Tech has won six of the last seven meetings between the schools.
  
  Tech (9–1) should not take the 8–2 Aggies lightly, though. That Bulldog offense will be taking on the 12th–best defense in the nation. And Tech's offense better come through because Tech has one of the worst defenses in the nation while Utah State's offense is 28th.
  
  I pick Utah State.
• #22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: This series dates back to 1980, but it has really only been a regular thing since the teams became conference rivals.
  
  It's one of those series that goes in waves. Back in the 1980s, Rutgers was the regular winner, then they played a couple of times in what was, in hindsight, a transitional period in the 1990s (split decision), and Cincinnati has been the dominant program in the early 21st century (although Rutgers did snap a five–game Bearcat winning streak in the series last year).
  
  If it is true that defense wins championships — or, at least, wins games — Rutgers, with its 14th–ranked defense, should have no trouble with Cincinnati (98th in the nation in offense).
  
  Cincinnati's defense (#44) might be able to compete with Rutgers' offense (#33), but if the Rutgers defense forces Cincinnati to commit turnovers (and Rutgers has been particularly good at making the other team fumble the ball away this season), it really might not matter what happens when Rutgers has the ball.
  
  I pick Rutgers.
• #23 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This really should be an entertaining game.
  
  Both offenses are in the Top 10. OSU's is slightly better, but it will have the challenge of facing Tech's 18th–ranked defense.
  
  Tech's three losses have been to ranked teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas). OSU has lost to Texas and K–State, too; OU is coming up next week. The Bedlam Series is always a big attention grabber in Oklahoma, and OSU has been good enough — and successful enough — in recent years (the Cowboys snapped an eight–game losing streak to the Sooners last year) to make folks in Oklahoma wonder if OSU can win two in a row against OU for only the seventh time in the last century.
  
  The Cowboys can't afford to be distracted by such thoughts this week — but my guess is they will. Texas Tech in what may well be regarded as an upset.
• Iowa at #23 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series is more than a century old, and Michigan has been in the driver's seat practically from the beginning.
  
  Well, Iowa did win the first encounter back in 1900 — but then won only one of the next 16. A pattern was set.
  
  Iowa fans are not accustomed to experiencing losing seasons, but the prospect is suddenly very real, now that the 4–6 Hawkeyes are on a four–game losing streak and must defeat both Michigan today and #16 Nebraska next week to finish 6–6.
  
  Michigan's offense hasn't been too horrifying, but the Wolverines' defense, which is 11th in the nation, has been.
  
  And it is because of the defense that I pick Michigan to win.
• #25 Kent State at Bowling Green, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have faced each other every year since 1962, and Bowling Green has thoroughly dominated the series, 40–9.
  
  Only recently has Kent made a series of it, winning the last two and three of the last six.
  
  And Kent (9–1) might make it three in a row with its superior offense.
  
  But Bowling Green (7–3) has the sixth–best defense in the country. The Falcons have only given up 20 points or more three times — but they have lost on all three occasions.
  
  I tend to favor good defenses, especially when the weather turns cold — as it is sure to be in Ohio this weekend.
  
  Consequently, I pick Bowling Green.

Last week: 17–4

Season: 174–44

Sixth-ranked Tigers Return to Aggieland

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Unless you're over 25, you probably don't remember, but LSU–Texas A&M was quite a rivalry once upon a time.

Sure, LSU has always had a rivalry with Alabama, and A&M is best known for its rivalry with Texas, and, for many years, those rivalries were played out within the conferences in which LSU and A&M competed.

But, outside the conference, few rivalries could match the intensity of LSU against Texas A&M. Unfortunately, they let the rivalry lapse for several periods over the years.

They renewed their rivalry in the 2011 Cotton Bowl (won by LSU, 41–24). It was the first time they had played since 1995.

But now that they're in the Southeastern Conference together — and in the same division — they'll be playing each other every year.

Idle: #25 Ohio

Today

• #2 Oregon at Arizona State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have faced each other 32 times since meeting for the first time in 1966, and each team has won 16 times.
  
  That's about as close as a series can be.
  
  It's been pretty one–sided for the last seven years, though. Oregon has won all seven of the encounters since 2005, including the last four in Tempe.
  
  Arizona State's fourth–ranked defense might have something to say about that, though. Since the Sun Devils will be facing the nation's eighth–ranked offense, that will make the occasions when Oregon has the ball well worth watching.
  
  Not that it will be time to take out the trash or use the restroom when ASU has the ball, but the rankings aren't as gaudy. ASU's offense is pretty good (#24 in the nation); Oregon's defense is good but not great (#43).
  
  Nevertheless, I think Oregon will prevail.

Saturday

• #1 Alabama at Tennessee, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Alabama has many rivals, but, historically, there are three main rivals — Auburn, LSU and the team the Crimson Tide will face this Saturday, Tennessee.
  
  It is known as the "Third Saturday in October," which has been, traditionally, the calendar date on which the game has been played. Alabama leads the series, 48–38–7 — and, thanks to the Tide's triumph in Missouri last week, Alabama has won at least as many as it has lost to every team in the Southeastern Conference.
  
  Missouri, of course, just joined the SEC this year (as did #20 Texas A&M) and had only played Alabama three times. Of the current SEC members, only Mississippi State has played Alabama more often than Tennessee — and no SEC school has beaten Alabama more often than Tennessee.
  
  But Alabama has won the last five meetings.
  
  You know, it is really hard for me to predict that the nation's best defense will be defeated. And that is what I would have to do if I picked Tennessee to win.
  
  I think the Volunteers are an improved team this year, and they will again be factors in the SEC in the years ahead, but I have to pick Alabama to win this game.
• #9 South Carolina at #3 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel writes that there is much excitement in Gainesville, Fla., about the South Carolina–Florida game that will be played there this weekend.
  
  Part of the excitement, no doubt, has to do with the fact that South Carolina practically never wins at Florida.
  
  The teams have played 16 times in Gainesville, and South Carolina has left there with a victory only once (there were ties in Tampa and Jacksonville, both of which were considered home games for the Gators, in 1921 and 1931).
  
  On offense, Florida has a narrow edge — the Gators are ranked 82nd and the Gamecocks are ranked 83rd — but Ben Kercheval of NBC Sports reports that South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore has a hip injury and may not play.
  
  That could make a big difference, especially since the teams are just as close in the defensive rankings — South Carolina is ranked 12th, Florida is ranked 13th.
  
  I think Florida will win, even if Lattimore can play.
• #4 Kansas State at #17 West Virginia, 6 p. m. (Central) on Fox: Both these teams were well regarded before the season began, but hardly anyone had this game circled on the schedule as a must–see matchup.
  
  Nevertheless, it is a very big game in the Big 12 with potential significance for the national title picture. Not bad for a couple of schools that haven't faced each other in more than 80 years.
  
  Dave Skretta of the Associated Press writes that K–State has "a pretty good blueprint for success."
  
  We'll see, I suppose. KSU does have a better defense, by far, and the Wildcats will need it, given that they will be facing Geno Smith and the nation's sixth–ranked offense.
  
  I'm inclined to think West Virginia will win this game.
• Brigham Young at #5 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams have only met six times previously, and the Irish have won four of them.
  
  What's more, Notre Dame is 3–1 against BYU at South Bend.
  
  Actually, BYU is ranked slightly ahead of Notre Dame in total offense — but neither team has been particularly strong on offense. Defense is where both teams have stood out and, so far, BYU is ranked sixth in the nation while Notre Dame is 11th.
  
  Perhaps the home field advantage will boost the Irish in this one, but, right now, I'm picking Brigham Young to pull off the upset and win in South Bend for the first time in nearly 20 years.
• #6 LSU at #20 Texas A&M, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 50th time these teams have played, but it will be their first encounter as conference foes.
  
  Historically, LSU does not have a good record at College Station. The Aggies lead the series there, 9–2–1, and haven't lost to LSU at home in 25 years.
  
  LSU will be bringing the nation's second–best defense to Texas. The Aggies, on the other hand, have the sixth–best offense, which should make for some intriguing moments when A&M has the ball.
  
  It will be interesting — albeit sloppier — when LSU has the ball. The Tigers are 73rd in offense; the Aggies are 72nd in defense.
  
  LSU still has one of the best teams in the country, but I'm not sure they're good enough to win on the road against a good opponent — and A&M is a good opponent.
  
  Consequently, I pick Texas A&M to win.
• Purdue at #7 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Ohio State has owned Purdue historically — but the Buckeyes' dominance has been especially pronounced in Columbus.
  
  Ohio State is 26–6–2 against the Boilermakers at home — and Purdue hasn't won there since 1988.
  
  But what about 2012? Well, Ohio State is currently 34th in total offense, thanks to Braxton Miller; Purdue is 77th. Neither team has been particularly impressive on defense. Ohio State ranks 69th; Purdue is 76th.
  
  I don't see how Ohio State can be denied.
• Utah at #8 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Last week, I said I wasn't sold on the Beavers yet.
  
  But I'm getting there.
  
  In the matter at hand, Oregon State leads Utah all time, mostly on the strength of their record in Corvallis. The Beavers are 6–2–1 against Utah at home.
  
  Offense has long been the dominant characteristic of Pac–12 teams. Oregon State isn't quite at the level of in–state rival Oregon, but the Beavers are ranked 32nd (thanks largely to Sean Mannion's 63% pass completion rate), which is well ahead of Utah at #114.
  
  Utah's defense, though, is rated higher than Oregon State's (#35 and #45, respectively), but it seems to me the Beavers are more than ready to shut down the Utes. I pick Oregon State to win.
• Kansas at #10 Oklahoma, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: When I was a journalism professor at OU, I used to have season tickets to see the basketball team play.
  
  Those were the only times a KU–OU ticket was really hot when I lived in Norman. Kansas' football team has only had seven winning seasons in the last 30 years — but the Jayhawks still managed to beat the Sooners twice in the four years I was there.
  
  (Suffice to say I did not live in Oklahoma during the Sooners' glory years.)
  
  The Sooners have won 69 of the 102 football games the schools have played, including the last seven in a row. And I can't come up with a plausible reason why Kansas would win. I pick Oklahoma.
• Colorado at #11 Southern California, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These teams have played six times through the years, and the Trojans have won all six games.
  
  Southern Cal's offense is only ranked 57th (Colorado's is 103rd), but the Trojans are 25th in defense (Colorado is 113th).
  
  Can Colorado get its first win over Southern Cal? No. I have to go with Southern Cal.
• #12 Florida State at Miami (Fla.), 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have played each other almost every year since the mid–1950s — and Miami holds a 29–25 lead.
  
  But Florida State has won five of the last seven meetings. I think it will be six of the last eight. My money is on Florida State.
• #13 Georgia at Kentucky, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Look high and low, but you won't find many series that have been as one–sided as this one.
  
  These teams first played each other in 1939, and they have been meeting annually since 1956 — 65 meetings so far. And Georgia has won 80% of them.
  
  So is there any hope for Kentucky in the numbers? Not really. Thanks to QB Aaron Murray and running back Todd Gurley, Georgia is #20 nationally in offense (Kentucky is 113th). The teams are a little closer on defense — Georgia is ranked 50th, Kentucky is 77th.
  
  I just can't see any way the Wildcats can win this game, even at home. My pick is Georgia.
• Virginia Tech at #14 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 31st time these teams have faced each other, and Clemson has won 18 of the previous meetings.
  
  Considering Virginia Tech's reputation, that may come as a surprise. But Clemson, behind QB Tajh Boyd and halfback Andre Ellington, has a decisive edge on offense. Ranked #13 on offense, the Tigers may prove to be too much for Virginia Tech, which has the edge on defense but is only ranked 55th nationally.
  
  I like Clemson in this one.
• Middle Tennessee at #15 Mississippi State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 Mississippi State is 4–0 all time against Middle Tennessee — with an average victory margin of three touchdowns.
  
  Middle Tennessee actually has the 43rd–ranked offense in the nation (compared to Mississippi State's #59 unit), but Mississippi State has the #25 defense in the land (Middle Tennessee's is 94th).
  
  I'm inclined to think Mississippi State will win rather handily.
• South Florida at #16 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: If Louisville can win this game, it will knot up the all–time series at 5&ndsh;5.
  
  And history favors it. Louisville is 3–1 at home against South Florida. The hitch is that South Florida won in 2010, the last time South Florida visited Louisville.
  
  Will history repeat itself? Well, there really isn't much difference between the two on offense — Louisville is ranked 62nd; South Florida is 67th. But the numbers on defense really make you think. Louisville is #24 in the nation; South Florida is #60.
  
  Louisville appears ready to even up the series.
• #18 Texas Tech at TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have only met twice since they stopped being members of the same conference in the mid–1990s — and both times, the home team won.
  
  They're in the same conference again, and the outcomes of their last two games are really typical of this series. Each has a winning record at home — which might be a good omen for TCU except that Texas Tech looked really good against West Virginia last week and TCU has looked really bad without its starting quarterback.
  
  (I mean, TCU lost at home to the same Iowa State team that Tech beat on the road the week before.)
  
  Texas Tech currently has the nation's 10th–best offense whereas TCU's is 45th. Now, that wouldn't be so bad — if it weren't for the fact that the Red Raiders rank fourth in defense. TCU is a respectable 15th in defense, but the fact remains that Tech is ahead of TCU in both categories — and the Red Raiders have already played Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma (both schools have yet to play Texas and Kansas State).
  
  It seems to me that TCU is a team on the way down while Tech is a team on the way up. I figured things might be rough for the Frogs, this being their first Big 12 season and all, but it might get really rough for them this weekend. I pick Texas Tech.
• #19 Rutgers at Temple, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East Network: This is the 35th time these teams have faced each other, and Rutgers holds a narrow 18–16 lead.
  
  Both teams have the advantage at home. In Rutgers' case, the record is 12–7.
  
  Rutgers also has been more productive on both sides of the ball, but neither offense has been exceptionally impressive. Rutgers, however, has the nation's 18th–best defense — much better than Temple's #61 defense.
  
  On the strength of its defense, I pick Rutgers.
• #21 Cincinnati at Toledo, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com Cincinnati has been showing up a lot on ESPN3.com lately.
  
  It's only been a three–game series so far with only one of those games — the first one, back in 1993 — having been played in Toledo. That is the only time Cincinnati has beaten Toledo, by the way.
  
  Home field has not been an advantage for either side. Toledo won the rematch in Cincinnati (and the 2001 Motor City Bowl).
  
  Offense might be the key, and both teams are ranked in the Top 30. Cincinnati's 39th–ranked defense should be better prepared to handle Toledo's offense than Toledo's #108 defense will be to stymie Cincinnati's offense.
  
  Accordingly, I have to pick Cincinnati.
• #22 Stanford at California, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: The "Big Game," as this rivalry is called, is the oldest rivalry in the Pac–12.
  
  This will be the 92nd time they have met on the football field since 1918, a streak that was interrupted only by the war years of the 1940s. Stanford leads the series and has won the last two.
  
  In the first year of the post–Andrew Luck era, Stanford's offense has struggled (currently ranked 91st). Cal's, meanwhile, has been good but not great (#56).
  
  The edge on defense belongs to Stanford (ranked 48th; Cal's is 76th).
  
  Anything can happen in a rivalry game like this one, and I pick California to take what will most likely be regarded as an upset.
• Michigan State at #23 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The battle for Michigan has been fought 86 times, and the Wolverines have won most of the time (52–30–4), but it has definitely been a streaky series in recent years.
  
  Michigan State has won the last four games in a row (and, according to the Detroit News, the Spartans, who have been disappointing this year, are eager to make it five in a row); before that, Michigan was the winner in six consecutive contests.
  
  Michigan State has never won five straight against Michigan. The Spartans had won four in a row three separate times before last year's victory — and, in their most recent such streak, they could have won seven in a row had it not been for a tie in one of their games.
  
  It's been a disappointing year for the Spartans, and I know it would make up for a lot if they could win this game, but I don't think they will. I pick Michigan.
• UNLV at #24 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBCSN: These teams met for the first time last year, and Boise State won, 48–21, at Las Vegas.
  
  Boise State was once one of the nation's most exciting offensive units, but UNLV enters this game with an edge in total offense. On the other hand, Boise has a significant edge in total defense — along with the home field advantage.
  
  I pick Boise State.

Last week: 16–2

Season: 113–25

An Awesome Comeback

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Ordinarily, I am very hesitant to use the word awesome — it's overused, and inappropriately used, too, as I have written before.

But no other word seems to do justice to what happened in Cowboys Stadium yesterday afternoon.

If you missed it (and, for reasons I would prefer not to get into right now, I nearly did), my alma mater, the the 18th–ranked University of Arkansas Razorbacks, rallied from an 18–point halftime deficit against the 14th–ranked Texas A&M Aggies to win, 42–38.

Before the season began, there were a lot of whispers among Razorback fans. Would Tyler Wilson, the understudy at quarterback, be able to fill the considerable shoes left by Ryan Mallett, who left school a year early to try his luck in the NFL?

(Mallett is currently the understudy to Tom Brady in New England — which means that, barring a Drew Bledsoe–like injury, Mallett is likely to spend the next few years riding the bench.)

Well, judging from yesterday's game, Wilson is more than capable of filling Mallett's shoes. He set a school single–game record in the comeback win, passing for more than 500 yards and, in the process, obliterating the record Mallett set against Vanderbilt last year.

There were several dramatic moments yesterday. There were the buildups for the obvious contests — Nebraska–Wisconsin, Alabama–Florida, Clemson–Virginia Tech — and then there were the outcomes that qualified as shocking (or, at least, surprising) — Kansas State's win over Baylor, for example (which I predicted), and SMU's victory over TCU in Fort Worth (which I did not).

But there was nothing like the Razorbacks and the Aggies.

Coming into the game, Arkansas had allowed only one rushing touchdown in its first four games. Admittedly, those first three opponents were nothing special, but the one last week (Alabama) certainly was.

Texas A&M scored five rushing touchdown in the first half. The Aggies seemed to be unstoppable — or maybe the Razorbacks were still struggling with the hangover from their 38–14 loss to Alabama last week. Whichever it was, I seriously considered not watching the second half. That's how lopsided it was.

What happened in the second half reminded me of an Arkansas game I attended many years ago, back when the Hogs and the Aggies were members of the old Southwest Conference.

It was a cold, dreary day in Fayetteville, Ark., when Baylor came to visit. A conference doormat when I was growing up, Baylor was asserting itself in those days and came to Fayetteville ranked 17th in the nation. Arkansas had climbed all the way to fourth in the national rankings before falling to eventual SWC champion Houston, but the Hogs were still in the top 10 — at #9 — and the home fans were confident that Arkansas would win.

The first half of that game is a blur in my memory now. I don't remember if Arkansas scored in that first half, but Baylor certainly did — repeatedly — and I remember that the Bears seemed to be in control of that game when the intermission came.

I also remember how quiet the usually boisterous Razorback Stadium crowd was. I overheard some people near me talking about leaving, and I found the thought tempting. I was cold and wet, and the idea of sitting in front of a warm fire instead of on a cold bleacher watching my beloved Razorbacks take a beating was appealing.

But I stayed and so did most of the home crowd — and we were rewarded with a great comeback. The Razorbacks won, 29–20. I don't remember the details, but I remember the growing excitement in the crowd as Arkansas gradually overcame Baylor.

It must have been like that for Razorback fans in Cowboys Stadium yesterday — except that what happened yesterday must have been even more impressive. It had to have been because Baylor only scored 20 points in the entire game that I saw. Arkansas scored 25 points in the second half against the Aggies — and held A&M to a field goal in the process.

It was awesome.

The Aggies and the SEC

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When the name of Texas Gov. Rick Perry surfaces in news reports in the other 49 states these days, it is most likely in connection with the recent announcement of his candidacy for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

But here in Texas, folks aren't concerned with his presidential ambitions. At least, not yet.

Maybe Texans have been a bit spoiled, but they aren't terribly impressed with the mere announcement that a Texan is seeking the presidency. Many have done that.

Come back and talk to them if and when Perry is the nominee. They should have plenty to say. He's been governor for a decade.

Barack Obama's immediate predecessor, of course, was elected governor of Texas twice, and his father, who wasn't born in Texas but represented one of the state's House districts in Congress at one time, was vice president for eight years and president for four. The Democrats even nominated a Texan for vice president.

Two other presidents in the 20th century were born in Texas — Dwight Eisenhower and Lyndon Johnson.

As I say, the presidential campaign isn't what folks in Texas are talking about right now. Their immediate concern, as always, is football — and lately they are interested in what the future holds for Texas A&M.

Perry's fate they will find out about in due course.

In recent days, word got out that A&M wanted to leave the Big 12 and join the Southeastern Conference, and journalists who were following Perry as he coyly made his way to South Carolina (where he sought to upstage the Iowa straw poll by announcing his presidential intentions) asked him about it.

Perry, as you may know, graduated from A&M in 1972. Currently, he probably has the highest profile of any A&M grad, and it is assumed by many that the governor has some special insights and/or connections to the decision makers in College Station.

If he does, though, Perry didn't mention it.

"As far as I know, conversations are being had," the Dallas Morning News quoted Perry as saying about the situation. "That's frankly all I know."

Turned out, Perry was right. Conversations were "being had."

And, apparently, because of those conversations, the decision makers in College Station jumped the gun a bit and announced that the Aggies were moving to the SEC. Problem was, the invitation hadn't been extended.

At least, not yet.

That was the encouraging part for Texas A&M, its student body and its supporters across the nation. The Aggies were not flatly rejected by the SEC — which, with five consecutive national championships divvied up between four schools, must be regarded as America's elite football conference.

The SEC left the door open for future expansion — which could very well include Texas A&M — after it carefully surveys the terrain. That says something, I think, about A&M and the SEC.

A&M's football program has struggled in recent years, but the Aggies seemed to be turning the corner last year, winning their last six regular–season games (including victories over Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas Tech and arch rival Texas). Some weaknesses were exposed in their Cotton Bowl loss to national power LSU, but, overall, the season left a good taste in the mouths of Aggies everywhere.

The 2010 season was the Aggies' most productive since 2006 and the closest they have come to a double–digit victory season since the 1990s. Preseason polls have A&M ranked among the nation's top programs. The sky seems to be the limit.

Well, except for one problem that I think played a key role in the collapse of the old Southwest Conference — and is probably contributing heavily to the impending collapse of the Big 12.

What is the problem, you may ask? It is the University of Texas' commitment to sucking all the oxygen out of any conference in which it competes.

UT did that in the old Southwest Conference, where it routinely pounded schools like TCU, Baylor, Rice and SMU, usually handled programs, like Texas Tech and Houston, that occasionally emerged as threats and usually repelled Arkansas and A&M, which were the most persistent challengers. It cast a huge shadow over the other teams in the conference with its vast financial resources, its massive and influential alumni base and its athletic prestige.

In fact, the only three games that made the Longhorns break a sweat most years were their contests with OU, A&M and Arkansas.

(That may have been the most shocking thing about legendary coach Darrell Royal's final season in 1976. In two decades as UT's coach, Royal never had a losing season — but, in 1976, Texas lost as many games as it won. Texas lost to Baylor and nearly lost to SMU — and was just another team when Royal departed.)

In the early 1990s, Arkansas made the decision to join the SEC. Perhaps athletic director Frank Broyles and the decision makers in Fayetteville realized that it was becoming the Longhorn Conference, and it was doomed to collapse under its own weight.

Maybe the decision makers in College Station are sensing the same thing in the Big 12 today. Nebraska and Colorado have already left the conference, and A&M may have realized that no conference will ever be big enough for Texas and even one other big–time program — let alone two or three or four.

The SEC is clearly big enough to accommodate several big–time programs, and it is open to the idea of adding more. A&M is on the SEC's list of prospects.

All it needs is to be patient for a year or two.

Bellard Was a Latter-Day Texas Pioneer

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I have had several thoughts about Emory Bellard since I heard of his death at the age of 83 yesterday.

And I have come to the conclusion that he rarely received the credit he deserved.

That may be hard for some football enthusiasts to accept. Bellard was a pioneer in Texas, a football coach who revolutionized the sport at the University of Texas with his wishbone offense. Well, that is what they say.

Bruce Weber of the New York Times calls the wishbone Bellard's "signature contribution" to the game.

In some ways, I guess that is true. It certainly changed things at the University of Texas, which had been struggling until the Longhorns' head coach, Darrell Royal, came to Bellard, an assistant at UT, in 1968 and asked him to come up with an offense that would shake things up.

He answered that challenge with the wishbone formation, which was designed to operate a triple option with a lead blocker. It sure changed things at Texas. In the next four seasons, the Longhorns were 38–5–1 with one national title (almost two), a perfect season (almost two), a 30–game winning streak and four Cotton Bowl appearances as Southwest Conference champions.

Then, in 1972, Bellard took the head coaching position at Texas' arch rival, Texas A&M. In so doing, he embodied the civil war that has been fought in generations of Texas families that have counted graduates of both UT and A&M among their ranks.

After Bellard's departure, Texas continued to thrive, winning two more SWC titles before going into a tailspin in Royal's final year at the helm in 1976.

Bellard's Aggies, meanwhile, struggled, losing their annual showdown with the Longhorns three straight times. It wouldn't have been fair to blame Bellard for that, though. The Aggies had lost to the Longhorns in most of their previous 20 meetings, including the four before Bellard arrived in College Station.

But he turned things around in 1975, winning the annual Thanksgiving showdown and coming within a single victory of taking the Aggies to the Cotton Bowl.

Bellard was never a head coach in the Cotton Bowl, only an assistant. He left A&M in the middle of the 1978 season after the Aggies lost consecutive games to Houston and Baylor.

While Bellard gets credit from a lot of people for developing the wishbone, there is some doubt about that. Former Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer insists that a coach at a high school in Fort Worth actually developed the wishbone in the 1950s. Perhaps Bellard modified something he had seen as a high school coach in the 1950s and early 1960s for use on the college level.

If he did, though, he also applied elements of the veer offense that was being run at the University of Houston and the variation of the triple option that was being used by Gene Stallings at A&M.

So perhaps the wishbone was not strictly Bellard's revolutionary innovation.

But Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle reminds us of something that was Bellard's innovation — the integration of the A&M football program.

"In 1972, we had one black player on scholarship," R.C. Slocum, one of Bellard's assistants at A&M, said. "Now you can imagine the reputation of Texas A&M at that point. Not just A&M, but pretty much everybody in the Southwest Conference.

"Not many people appreciate what a bold step that was, to bring in nine black players to a place that had virtually no blacks. The deeper story is trust. It's the kind of man he was. Parents trusted him to do the right thing."

Earlier this week, Justice reports, two of those black players came to see Bellard on his deathbed and thank him for what he had done.

As Justice observed, the integration of the Aggie football program was Bellard's true legacy. Integration undoubtedly would have come eventually. Bellard just saw to it that it arrived that much sooner.

Aggies Seek Reversal of Fortune

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I don't know if you've noticed, but — with a few noteworthy exceptions — this year's crop of bowl games has turned out to be somewhat disappointing.

Oh, there have been a few games that lived up to whatever hype there was prior to kickoff — but let's be honest, there really hasn't been much to hype, beyond the still–to–be–played BCS championship game.

Frankly, that hasn't surprised me. When this year's bowl lineup was announced, I pinpointed a handful of games that intrigued me — and decided I might watch parts of the others if I had nothing better to do.

If you knew how long I have been a fan of college football, you would be astonished by that.

One of the games that intrigued me from the start, though, is the one that will be played here in north Texas tonight — the Cotton Bowl between Texas A&M and LSU.

It's an old rivalry that has lain dormant since 1995, when the Aggies opened the season with a 33–17 win over LSU at College Station, Texas. (Since that day, by the way, A&M has lost five straight games to Southeastern Conference schools.)

That was totally in character for this series. If one of the teams is playing on its home field, that team usually wins. When the game is played at a neutral site, as it has been seven times (including their only previous bowl game encounter, the Orange Bowl that was played on Jan. 1, 1944), it's been even. Literally. Their record at neutral sites is 3–3–1.

This will be their 50th meeting so, clearly, most of their games have been played at College Station or Baton Rouge. In fact, you have to go back more than half a century to find the last time the teams played on a neutral site.

It was right here, in Dallas, on Sept. 24, 1955 (the same day that President Eisenhower suffered a heart attack), and the Aggies won, 28–0. Bear Bryant was coaching A&M in those days.

It was also the first season that Paul Dietzel was LSU's head coach. Modern football fans may not recognize that name, but, in the next few years, Dietzel led the Tigers to their only national championship in the 20th century, and he coached the school's only Heisman Trophy winner to date.

Before that, their last neutral–site meeting was that Orange Bowl game on New Year's Day 1944. That 1943 season was an anomaly in the history of this series. The teams met during the regular season, too, in Baton Rouge, and the visiting Aggies won, 28–13. But the Tigers won the rematch in Miami, 19–14.

The other five neutral–site games were played before or during World War I.

At various times, LSU has been a fixture on A&M's schedule, most recently in the decade covering the late 1980s and early 1990s. The Aggies lost four of five games between 1986 and 1990, but they won all five games played between 1991 and 1995, which also happened to be a period of virtually unparalleled success for the A&M program.

LSU, on the other hand, went from being a perennial SEC contender in the mid– to late 1980s to enduring a string of sub–.500 finishes from 1989 to 1994. The Tigers' loss to the Aggies in September 1995 did not prevent them from eventually earning a bowl bid for the first time since 1988. By that time, they were on their way back to the top.

In the last decade or so, both schools' fortunes have been reversed from what they were in 1995. LSU hasn't had a losing season since 1999; in fact, the Tigers have posted 10 wins or more in six of the last 10 seasons (including this one).

But the last two years were not particularly good for the Tigers. After beating Ohio State for the national title, LSU slumped to 8–5 in 2008 and rebounded slightly to 9–4 in 2009 — numbers that many programs would envy but hardly what LSU fans have been accustomed to.

Meanwhile, 2010 has been, by far, the Aggies' best year since they lost the 1999 Sugar Bowl to Ohio State and finished 11–3.

The numbers will tell you that the 9–3 Aggies have only matched their best single–season victory total since that time, but that isn't the whole story.

They went 9–3 in 2006 as well, but their reward for a campaign in which their only significant win was against Texas was a trip to the Holiday Bowl.

Don't get me wrong. Beating Texas always means something, and it did have more value in 2006, coming less than a year after Texas won the national title, than it did this year, when Texas was coming off a loss in the national championship game last January and, more recently, had been beaten to a pulp in six of its last eight games.

But the Aggies of 2006 didn't have any other truly quality wins (or "statement games") that year. They lost to the three best teams they faced other than Texas — Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Nebraska. Besides UT, the only winning teams the Aggies beat were Missouri and Oklahoma State — and, when they took the field in San Diego for the Holiday Bowl, they were hammered by 9–3 California.

(If you're an aficionado of A&M trivia, that was Dennis Franchione's last bowl appearance with the Aggies. He was gone after the 2007 season.)

A finish like the one Texas endured this year was probably the kind of finish that most people envisioned for the Aggies when they went 3–3 in the first half of the season, but then wide receiver Ryan Tannehill was switched to quarterback and the Aggies averaged 30.6 points in the five games he started (which included victories over Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas Tech).

And their reward is a trip to the Cotton Bowl.

Longtime A&M fans — the ones whose memories go back to when the Aggies competed in the old Southwest Conference — remember when going to the Cotton Bowl was the prize for a great season. For those of us who were raised in the Southwest Conference, I guess it always will be.

Personally, I feel the city of Dallas made a serious mistake in not actively promoting the Cotton Bowl for BCS status when it had the chance. Yes, the Cotton Bowl stadium has been around for 80 years. Yes, the city would have needed to make a substantial financial commitment to make it acceptable to the BCS.

But I believed then — and I believe now — the investment would have been worth it.

Well, that's really a topic for another time, I suppose.

This will be the Aggies' 12th Cotton Bowl, but it's been nearly a quarter of a century since they've won one. They've lost five straight since.

In all, they have played in 15 bowl games since their last victory in the Cotton Bowl, and their overall record is 3–12.

Can they end their skid?

I think they can — and the reason is as simple as the old adage that "defense wins championships."

Well, in this case, defense can't win a championship — but it definitely could win a bowl game.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the defense was known as the "Wrecking Crew." In recent years, I've heard Aggie fans criticize the defense, saying — and not without justification — that it didn't meet the standards of the defenses that R.C. Slocum used to put on the field.

(That has always seemed like a rather odd criticism to me, given that Slocum was run off because he wasn't winning. Slocum is the winningest coach in school history.)

But, in spite of all the talk about Tannehill's exploits this season, coach Mike Sherman's achievement in reviving the Aggie defense might be the story of the year in Aggieland. They had the best run defense in the Big 12 (#15 in the country), and that could make for some interesting plays against an offense that had the 31st run offense in the nation.

The passing game really doesn't seem likely to play a prominent role in LSU's game plan unless the Tigers find themselves having to claw back from a deficit. LSU's aerial attack was 107th in the nation — and I'm guessing that suits the Aggies just fine. They were 93rd in the nation against the pass.

When the Aggies have the ball, of course, they will be putting it in the apparently capable hands of Tannehill, who was 33rd in the nation in passing efficiency despite starting fewer than half of the team's games.

He does figure to be challenged when he throws the ball — LSU's pass defense was ninth in the nation, and the Tigers had to face three of the country's top four passers so you know they've been tested — but if LSU emphasizes pass defense, its 40th–ranked run defense could well be rendered vulnerable to Cyrus Gray, the Aggies' top rusher.

Gray didn't have eye–popping numbers, but he contributed about what LSU's top rusher, Stevan Ridley, did on the ground — roughly 86 yards and one touchdown per game. He didn't carry the ball as frequently, though, so his per–carry average was much better (5.74 to 4.63).

The numbers tell me this could be a scrap, a real backyard brawl, and that always makes for interesting television.

But let's examine the motivations.

The Aggies are on a six–game winning streak, hungry to return to national prominence. To outsiders, they may seem to be taking baby steps in that direction, and the Cotton Bowl may not seem like much of a seaon–ending reward.

But, as someone who grew up in the Southwest Conference, I know the Cotton Bowl is hardly a consolation prize to the Aggies. It is certainly preferable to the Holiday Bowl. I know they relish the opportunity to end their Cotton Bowl losing streak, even if it isn't in the actual Cotton Bowl stadium.

And, for a team whose last bowl championship came nearly a decade ago in the Gallery Furniture Bowl, the label "Cotton Bowl champions" sounds pretty good.

The Tigers have enjoyed a lot of success in recent years. Coach Les Miles is wrapping up his sixth season at the helm, and the Tigers have won at least 10 games in four of them.

There may be a certain amount of motivation for LSU in that. If the Tigers win tonight, they will have their fourth 11–win season since 2005.

My thinking is that the Tigers and their fans may be complacent. They may be inclined to see the Cotton Bowl as a consolation prize after all their recent BCS appearances. They may not appreciate a trip to Dallas.

But the Aggies, even though their campus is only about 150 miles away, won't feel that way.

And I think they will not only cover the two–point spread the oddsmakers have given to LSU. I think they will win the game. Texas A&M 27, LSU 21.