Alabama, LSU Meet in National Title Rematch

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Alabama celebrated the Crimson Tide's 14th national title
after a 21–0 victory over LSU in New Orleans last January.

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The last time LSU and Alabama met on a football field, Alabama won the game, 21–0, and the national title.

That was in New Orleans — officially "neutral" territory — last January.

The last time the two teams met in Baton Rouge, in November 2010, the Tigers won, 24–21.

But that was the exception to the rule. Over the years, Alabama has compiled a 24–8–3 record at Tiger Stadium — which is actually better than the Tide's record against the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

However ...

Baton Rouge hasn't been that cozy for the Crimson Tide lately. Alabama has won only two of the last six games the teams have played there.

They first met in 1902, but the series was sporadic until about halfway through the 20th century. Alabama dominated things during Bear Bryant's tenure, and it seems to me the series lost a bit of its luster until about 25 years after Bryant retired — when Alabama hired former LSU head coach Nick Saban, setting up the first "Saban Bowl" in 2007.

Considering that Saban has won a couple of national titles at Alabama since that time, I guess this is just the latest installment of the "Saban Bowl."

And for you trivia buffs out there ...

Since we are only a few days away from Election Day, I thought it would be interesting to see if there are any historical trends. Actually, one trend over the years has been that Alabama and LSU played each other a Saturday or two following an election. It is only in the last couple of election years that the teams have played just before an election.

But, just for kicks, I thought it would be interesting to see what the series might be able to tell us.

Alabama and LSU have played every year since 1964. In that time, 12 presidential elections have been held. Republicans have won seven, Democrats have won five.

In those presidential election years, Alabama has won eight of the head–to–head matchups with LSU, and LSU has won four. While there are exceptions, it appears that the Democrat usually wins if Alabama defeats LSU, and the Republican usually wins if LSU defeats Alabama.

And, in every election since 1984, the Republican has won the presidency if LSU defeated Alabama, and the Democrat has won the presidency if Alabama defeated LSU.

Idle: #9 Florida State, #11 South Carolina

• #1 Alabama at #5 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: History favors the Crimson Tide in this series — wherever the game is played.
  
  But Alabama has also been better on both offense and defense. Considering that the Tide boasts the top–ranked defense in the nation and a quarterback who "does everything," in the words of his coach, it's hard to see how Alabama could lose.
  
  With a month to go in the season, it is still possible that LSU and Alabama could meet in a rematch for the national title, just as they did last year. But only if LSU wins this game — and that should give the Tigers some additional motivation.
  
  But I don't think LSU is going to win. My pick is Alabama.
• #2 Oregon at #18 USC, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Southern Cal has dominated this series — especially at home, where the Trojans are 24–6–1 against the Ducks.
  
  The Ducks did win the last time they visited the Trojans, but that was, well, the exception to the rule.
  
  Given their rankings, though, it would seem that the Trojans will need more than the home field advantage.
  
  Unfortunately, they lag behind the Ducks in both offense and defense — which makes me think the Ducks will once again buck the historical trend. I'm picking Oregon.
• Oklahoma State at #3 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Since they first met in 1917, Oklahoma State has won nearly two–thirds of the games played between these two schools.
  
  But not so much lately.
  
  Oh, sure, the Cowboys have won four of the last five. But K–State won nine in a row before that, and the Wildcats had won six straight at home before Oklahoma State won there in 2010.
  
  Honestly, I think this year's game could be a dandy. OSU has the top–ranked offense in the nation (KSU is ranked 43rd). Kansas State's 30th–ranked defense is better than Oklahoma State's (#43), but one wonders if it has what it takes to stop J.W. Walsh (the #11 passer in the land) and Joseph Randle (the #9 rusher).
  
  But I think Kansas State may be the most lightly regarded third–ranked team in recent memory. Look at what the Wildcats have done so far. They are undefeated through eight games, a schedule that has included trips to Oklahoma and West Virginia, and the remaining schedule includes (after today's game), trips to TCU and Baylor and a regular season–concluding home game against Texas.
  
  There aren't many breathers on Kansas State's schedule, but the Wildcats seem to keep each other emotionally balanced — especially at home, where they have seldom lost in recent years.
  
  I'll take Kansas State.
• Pittsburgh at #4 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: A week after what had to be an emotional road win over Oklahoma, Notre Dame faces Pittsburgh, a team the Irish have beaten 46 times.
  
  But the series (recently, at least) has been nothing if not competitive. Seven of the last eight meetings were decided by a single score.
  
  My guess is that, if today's game is that competitive, it's likely to be a low–scoring game dominated by the defenses. And Notre Dame, with its 11th–ranked defense, gets the nod.
• Illinois at #6 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The good news for the Illini in this series is they have actually fared better on the road (where they have won about 39% of the time) than at home (where they have won about 25% of the time). In fact, Illinois has won three of the last five games that were played in Columbus.
  
  But there is plenty of bad news — on so many levels. For one, Ohio State has dominated the series (winning about 67% of the time). For another, the Buckeyes are 12–3 against Illinois since 1995. For yet another, Ohio State has won the last four in a row.
  
  And one more thing, as Columbo used to say ...
  
  Ohio State's offense (ranked 45th in the land) is infinitely better than Illinois' (109th).
  
  Illinois' defense is ranked higher than Ohio States's, but the difference is so modest (45th and 59th, respectively) that it seems likely that offense will determine the winner. I think it will be Ohio State.
• Ole Miss at #7 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: With Georgia's win over Florida last week, the Bulldogs are in the driver's seat in the SEC East.
  
  All they really have to do is win their last two SEC games — against Ole Miss and Auburn — and they will be in the SEC Championship game for the second consecutive year.
  
  That shouldn't be too much of a challenge as far as the Auburn game is concerned. The Tigers, who won the national title a couple of years ago with Cam Newton at quarterback, have fallen on hard times (their only win this year was in overtime against Louisiana–Monroe).
  
  But Ole Miss might be another matter. The 5–3 Rebels are a respectable 47th in both offense and defense. They aren't ranked ahead of the Bulldogs in either category, but they could be capable of giving Georgia some fits. QB Bo Wallace has completed about two–thirds of his passes, and Jeff Scott is averaging better than five yards per carry.
  
  Georgia, however, holds the historical advantage. The Bulldogs have won more than 70% of their encounters with Ole Miss, including their last nine games.
  
  But Ole Miss' last win over Georgia came in Athens in 1996. The Rebs have struggled on the road against Georgia, though, and the Bulldogs might have enough momentum to overwhelm them this time.
  
  I'm inclined to think Georgia will win. But I also think it will be an entertaining game, and I plan to watch it.
• Missouri at #8 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams have played each other only once before — and that was nearly 50 years ago, in the 1966 Sugar Bowl.
  
  It was a good game, probably better than the one that will be played today. Neither team has been particularly impressive on offense this year (Florida is 100th nationally, Missouri is 109th) so if you like offense, this game probably isn't for you.
  
  But the Gators have the sixth–best defense in the nation, and Missouri's defense is ranked 25th so I would expect some defensive fireworks.
  
  I also expect Florida to prevail.
• #10 Clemson at Duke, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the 53rd time these teams have met since 1934, and Clemson has won 68% of the time.
  
  Duke has already qualified for a bowl berth, its first in nearly 20 years, and, if everything falls together just right, these teams might meet for a second time this season — in the ACC Championship game.
  
  But much work remains to be done before that happens. Duke is currently tied with North Carolina and Miami (Florida) for the lead in the ACC's Coastal Division, and Clemson trails Florida State (who beat the Tigers in September) by half a game in the Atlantic Division.
  
  Both teams have sufficient motivation, but the marquee unit in this game is Clemson's offense, which is 14th in the nation.
  
  Duke has every reason to be proud of what it has achieved — and what it may yet achieve — this season. But Duke's 75th–ranked defense figures to have trouble with Tajh Boyd (who has completed more than 67% of his passes) and Andre Ellington (who is averaging better than five yards a carry).
  
  I have to choose Clemson.
• Temple at #12 Louisville, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have played five times in the past — three times in the '80s.
  
  And their most recent meeting came in 2006 so there really isn't anything in their history that could be considered relevant to the current squads — except for the fact that Louisville has won the two meetings between the schools in the 21st century (Temple hasn't beaten Louisville since 1983).
  
  Along with having a two–game winning streak in the series, Louisville is ranked higher in both offense and defense — but note that this isn't your father's Louisville team that had such a fearsome offense. Louisville is middlin' (as folks often said about people and places and things when I was growing up) in that category these days — defense is Louisville's strong point in 2012.
  
  Defense is Temple's strength as well, but the Owls are only middlin' in that category, and their offense is one of the worst in the land. I believe Louisville will prevail.
• Arizona State at #13 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Unexpectedly, Oregon State has been a contender in the Pac–12 North this season. Ditto for Arizona State in the Pac–12 South.
  
  Both trail in their respective divisions by only ½ a game. The leaders in their respective divisions, USC and Oregon, will meet earlier in the day so, by the time this game kicks off, one squad will know that it really has its back to the wall.
  
  And that should give one of these teams a real sense of urgency.
  
  But, right now, the identity of that team is the unknown factor.
  
  I must make my pick based on what is known. And this is what is known:
  
  These teams first met in 1961, and they have been playing annually (with the exceptions of two seasons) since 1987. In all, Arizona State has won nearly 70% of the time, and the Sun Devils almost never lose to Oregon State at home.
  
  But there's the catch. This year, the game is in Corvallis, Ore., and the Beavers have won the last three times the teams have played there. In fact, if Oregon State wins, it will knot up the all–time series in Oregon.
  
  The outcome may be decided when Arizona State (with the nation's 18th–best offense) has the ball. Oregon State will counter with the 33rd–ranked defense. Can the Beavers handle the fifth–best passer (Taylor Kelly)? They'd better because Arizona State's defense is also in the Top 20, and Oregon State's offense is middlin' at #55.
  
  I think it will be a close game, but I believe Oregon State's home crowd — and the fact that I think Oregon will beat USC — will motivate Oregon State to defeat Arizona State.
• #14 Oklahoma at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: I've mentioned before that OU had probably its worst football teams during the time when I was on the faculty there.
  
  It was certainly the worst the football team has played in my lifetime.
  
  But even in those days, the Sooners always beat the Cyclones. Always. This will be their 77th meeting, and OU has won all but seven of those games (two were ties). OU hasn't lost to Iowa State since 1990, and its winning percentage in Ames, Iowa, is even higher than it is in Norman, Okla.
  
  Oklahoma probably has a Top 10 football team. The Sooners lost a close one to Kansas State in September and lost by a wider margin to Notre Dame last week. With two losses, OU is out of the running for the national title — and probably out of the running for the conference title.
  
  But I expect Oklahoma to win the game. As always.
• #15 Stanford at Colorado, 1 p.m. (Central) on FX: If this was the World Series, it would be the seventh and deciding game.
  
  These teams have played six times, and the series is knotted at 3–3. It would certainly be a dramatic story if this was baseball. Stanford has won the last three games — after Colorado won the first three.
  
  But, in reality, Colorado hasn't beaten Stanford since 1990. And both teams are undefeated on their home turf. Stanford welcomed Colorado to the conference with a 48–7 blowout at Stanford. But now Stanford must travel to Colorado — without Andrew Luck, who has moved on to the NFL.
  
  Even so, Stanford really hasn't missed a beat, and I expect a Stanford win today.
• #16 Texas A&M at #17 Mississippi State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Aggies have truly enjoyed a remarkable first season in the SEC.
  
  Sure, they have lost to LSU and Florida, but those are two perennial powers in the conference. They have exceeded everyone's expectations and can only qualify for better bowl bids with each win.
  
  But Mississippi State has had a pretty good season, too — an unexpectedly good season, and the Bulldogs have a 3–2 historical advantage against the Aggies. But, with the exception of the 2000 Independence Bowl, all the other games were played before World War II.
  
  Nevertheless, this will be the first time the teams have faced each other in Starkville. A new chapter in the series will be written there today.
  
  The marquee matchup should come when the Aggies (ranked fifth on offense) have the ball against Mississippi State's 28th–ranked defense. If the Bulldogs can stop the Aggies, they might have a chance (MSU's offense is 66th while A&M's defense is 35th).
  
  Texas A&M should win by a touchdown.
• San Diego State at #19 Boise State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: These teams met for the first time last year, and Boise State won, 52–35.
  
  It doesn't seem like a lot has changed. I think Boise State will win.
• Texas at #20 Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams are old rivals, going back long before Tech joined the Southwest Conference in 1960.
  
  It is a spirited rivalry, as Tech coach Tommy Tuberville told the Dallas Morning News, because so many players have friends on the opposite sideline, and at least one of the teams (usually Texas) has often been ranked when they have met.
  
  But seldom — if ever — has Texas Tech been the ranked team when the teams have played.
  
  In this series, I guess the most memorable moment came when the Red Raiders beat the Longhorns on the last play of the game in 2008. But the Longhorns have won the last three, including their return to the scene of the crime — Lubbock — two years ago.
  
  And now, here they are in Lubbock again, but the Longhorns are unranked while the Red Raiders are #20. And Texas Tech has the 11th–ranked offense in the country (Texas' is 38th). Texas Tech also has the #12 defense in the country (Texas' is 96th).
  
  I think Texas Tech will win, but it might be closer than these numbers would suggest.
• #21 Nebraska at Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, these teams have met six times (including twice when Michigan State was not yet classified Division 1–A). Nebraska has won all six games.
  
  When this season began, a lot of people probably figured these teams would be fixtures in the Top 25. But both fell out of the rankings fairly early, and Nebraska has only recently worked its way back in.
  
  The highlight–reel moments should come when the Cornhuskers have the ball and their 15th–ranked offense must face MSU's #5 defense. Nebraska's defense (ranked 26th) should have no trouble with Michigan State's 96th–ranked offense.
  
  Nebraska should improve to 7–0 against Michigan State.
• Texas–San Antonio at #22 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN–Plus: UTSA is really more of a basketball school.
  
  There isn't much to say about this one. I pick Louisiana Tech.
• TCU at #23 West Virginia, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have played only once before — in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl, which was won by West Virginia, 31–14.
  
  Now that the schools are in the same conference, this might be the beginning of a pretty intense series.
  
  In spite of recent setbacks, West Virginia still has one of the best offenses in the college game. The Mountaineers are 13th; the Horned Frogs are 48th.
  
  But the catch is on defense. TCU is 23rd in the nation while West Virginia is 114th (I suspect that ranking is in large part due to the fact that West Virginia has yielded 212 points in its last four games — victories over Baylor and Texas and losses to Texas Tech and Kansas State).
  
  I guess the question (well, it's a two–parter) is this: Is West Virginia's defense as good as the statistics from September would lead you to believe? Or is it as bad as it has appeared in its last four games?
  
  I'm going to go with TCU. My rationale is based on some common opponents.
  
  The Frogs didn't look particularly good in their loss to Iowa State (who will play West Virginia in three weeks) in early October, and their defense did give up a touchdown more to Texas Tech than the Mountaineers did — but the Frogs played three OT periods with Tech.
  
  And the Mountaineers gave up three times as many points to Baylor as TCU did.
  
  I think it will be close, but I will go with West Virginia at home.
• #24 Arizona at #25 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This could be the most intriguing Pac–12 game of the week.
  
  The Oregon–USC game probably will get more attention, but Arizona is coming off a big win over USC — and it was accomplished in spite of an apparent concussion suffered by Arizona's quarterback.
  
  It doesn't get much more dramatic than that, even if the drama was realized in hindsight.
  
  Aside from all that, Arizona has won the last two times it visited UCLA. In fact, the Wildcats have won the last five in a row — and are 6–1 against UCLA since 2005.
  
  But UCLA has a few things in its favor. The Bruins' defense is ranked higher (but that, as my father likes to say, is like the Polish beauty contest — there are no winners. UCLA's defense ranks 76th in the nation and Arizona's is 110th).
  
  However, Arizona has a decided advantage on offense. The Wildcats are fourth in the country (again, UCLA ranks 76th). On that basis, I pick Arizona to beat UCLA.

Last week: 12–7

Season: 141–37

Sixth-ranked Tigers Return to Aggieland

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Unless you're over 25, you probably don't remember, but LSU–Texas A&M was quite a rivalry once upon a time.

Sure, LSU has always had a rivalry with Alabama, and A&M is best known for its rivalry with Texas, and, for many years, those rivalries were played out within the conferences in which LSU and A&M competed.

But, outside the conference, few rivalries could match the intensity of LSU against Texas A&M. Unfortunately, they let the rivalry lapse for several periods over the years.

They renewed their rivalry in the 2011 Cotton Bowl (won by LSU, 41–24). It was the first time they had played since 1995.

But now that they're in the Southeastern Conference together — and in the same division — they'll be playing each other every year.

Idle: #25 Ohio

Today

• #2 Oregon at Arizona State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have faced each other 32 times since meeting for the first time in 1966, and each team has won 16 times.
  
  That's about as close as a series can be.
  
  It's been pretty one–sided for the last seven years, though. Oregon has won all seven of the encounters since 2005, including the last four in Tempe.
  
  Arizona State's fourth–ranked defense might have something to say about that, though. Since the Sun Devils will be facing the nation's eighth–ranked offense, that will make the occasions when Oregon has the ball well worth watching.
  
  Not that it will be time to take out the trash or use the restroom when ASU has the ball, but the rankings aren't as gaudy. ASU's offense is pretty good (#24 in the nation); Oregon's defense is good but not great (#43).
  
  Nevertheless, I think Oregon will prevail.

Saturday

• #1 Alabama at Tennessee, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Alabama has many rivals, but, historically, there are three main rivals — Auburn, LSU and the team the Crimson Tide will face this Saturday, Tennessee.
  
  It is known as the "Third Saturday in October," which has been, traditionally, the calendar date on which the game has been played. Alabama leads the series, 48–38–7 — and, thanks to the Tide's triumph in Missouri last week, Alabama has won at least as many as it has lost to every team in the Southeastern Conference.
  
  Missouri, of course, just joined the SEC this year (as did #20 Texas A&M) and had only played Alabama three times. Of the current SEC members, only Mississippi State has played Alabama more often than Tennessee — and no SEC school has beaten Alabama more often than Tennessee.
  
  But Alabama has won the last five meetings.
  
  You know, it is really hard for me to predict that the nation's best defense will be defeated. And that is what I would have to do if I picked Tennessee to win.
  
  I think the Volunteers are an improved team this year, and they will again be factors in the SEC in the years ahead, but I have to pick Alabama to win this game.
• #9 South Carolina at #3 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel writes that there is much excitement in Gainesville, Fla., about the South Carolina–Florida game that will be played there this weekend.
  
  Part of the excitement, no doubt, has to do with the fact that South Carolina practically never wins at Florida.
  
  The teams have played 16 times in Gainesville, and South Carolina has left there with a victory only once (there were ties in Tampa and Jacksonville, both of which were considered home games for the Gators, in 1921 and 1931).
  
  On offense, Florida has a narrow edge — the Gators are ranked 82nd and the Gamecocks are ranked 83rd — but Ben Kercheval of NBC Sports reports that South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore has a hip injury and may not play.
  
  That could make a big difference, especially since the teams are just as close in the defensive rankings — South Carolina is ranked 12th, Florida is ranked 13th.
  
  I think Florida will win, even if Lattimore can play.
• #4 Kansas State at #17 West Virginia, 6 p. m. (Central) on Fox: Both these teams were well regarded before the season began, but hardly anyone had this game circled on the schedule as a must–see matchup.
  
  Nevertheless, it is a very big game in the Big 12 with potential significance for the national title picture. Not bad for a couple of schools that haven't faced each other in more than 80 years.
  
  Dave Skretta of the Associated Press writes that K–State has "a pretty good blueprint for success."
  
  We'll see, I suppose. KSU does have a better defense, by far, and the Wildcats will need it, given that they will be facing Geno Smith and the nation's sixth–ranked offense.
  
  I'm inclined to think West Virginia will win this game.
• Brigham Young at #5 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams have only met six times previously, and the Irish have won four of them.
  
  What's more, Notre Dame is 3–1 against BYU at South Bend.
  
  Actually, BYU is ranked slightly ahead of Notre Dame in total offense — but neither team has been particularly strong on offense. Defense is where both teams have stood out and, so far, BYU is ranked sixth in the nation while Notre Dame is 11th.
  
  Perhaps the home field advantage will boost the Irish in this one, but, right now, I'm picking Brigham Young to pull off the upset and win in South Bend for the first time in nearly 20 years.
• #6 LSU at #20 Texas A&M, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 50th time these teams have played, but it will be their first encounter as conference foes.
  
  Historically, LSU does not have a good record at College Station. The Aggies lead the series there, 9–2–1, and haven't lost to LSU at home in 25 years.
  
  LSU will be bringing the nation's second–best defense to Texas. The Aggies, on the other hand, have the sixth–best offense, which should make for some intriguing moments when A&M has the ball.
  
  It will be interesting — albeit sloppier — when LSU has the ball. The Tigers are 73rd in offense; the Aggies are 72nd in defense.
  
  LSU still has one of the best teams in the country, but I'm not sure they're good enough to win on the road against a good opponent — and A&M is a good opponent.
  
  Consequently, I pick Texas A&M to win.
• Purdue at #7 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Ohio State has owned Purdue historically — but the Buckeyes' dominance has been especially pronounced in Columbus.
  
  Ohio State is 26–6–2 against the Boilermakers at home — and Purdue hasn't won there since 1988.
  
  But what about 2012? Well, Ohio State is currently 34th in total offense, thanks to Braxton Miller; Purdue is 77th. Neither team has been particularly impressive on defense. Ohio State ranks 69th; Purdue is 76th.
  
  I don't see how Ohio State can be denied.
• Utah at #8 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Last week, I said I wasn't sold on the Beavers yet.
  
  But I'm getting there.
  
  In the matter at hand, Oregon State leads Utah all time, mostly on the strength of their record in Corvallis. The Beavers are 6–2–1 against Utah at home.
  
  Offense has long been the dominant characteristic of Pac–12 teams. Oregon State isn't quite at the level of in–state rival Oregon, but the Beavers are ranked 32nd (thanks largely to Sean Mannion's 63% pass completion rate), which is well ahead of Utah at #114.
  
  Utah's defense, though, is rated higher than Oregon State's (#35 and #45, respectively), but it seems to me the Beavers are more than ready to shut down the Utes. I pick Oregon State to win.
• Kansas at #10 Oklahoma, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: When I was a journalism professor at OU, I used to have season tickets to see the basketball team play.
  
  Those were the only times a KU–OU ticket was really hot when I lived in Norman. Kansas' football team has only had seven winning seasons in the last 30 years — but the Jayhawks still managed to beat the Sooners twice in the four years I was there.
  
  (Suffice to say I did not live in Oklahoma during the Sooners' glory years.)
  
  The Sooners have won 69 of the 102 football games the schools have played, including the last seven in a row. And I can't come up with a plausible reason why Kansas would win. I pick Oklahoma.
• Colorado at #11 Southern California, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These teams have played six times through the years, and the Trojans have won all six games.
  
  Southern Cal's offense is only ranked 57th (Colorado's is 103rd), but the Trojans are 25th in defense (Colorado is 113th).
  
  Can Colorado get its first win over Southern Cal? No. I have to go with Southern Cal.
• #12 Florida State at Miami (Fla.), 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have played each other almost every year since the mid–1950s — and Miami holds a 29–25 lead.
  
  But Florida State has won five of the last seven meetings. I think it will be six of the last eight. My money is on Florida State.
• #13 Georgia at Kentucky, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Look high and low, but you won't find many series that have been as one–sided as this one.
  
  These teams first played each other in 1939, and they have been meeting annually since 1956 — 65 meetings so far. And Georgia has won 80% of them.
  
  So is there any hope for Kentucky in the numbers? Not really. Thanks to QB Aaron Murray and running back Todd Gurley, Georgia is #20 nationally in offense (Kentucky is 113th). The teams are a little closer on defense — Georgia is ranked 50th, Kentucky is 77th.
  
  I just can't see any way the Wildcats can win this game, even at home. My pick is Georgia.
• Virginia Tech at #14 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 31st time these teams have faced each other, and Clemson has won 18 of the previous meetings.
  
  Considering Virginia Tech's reputation, that may come as a surprise. But Clemson, behind QB Tajh Boyd and halfback Andre Ellington, has a decisive edge on offense. Ranked #13 on offense, the Tigers may prove to be too much for Virginia Tech, which has the edge on defense but is only ranked 55th nationally.
  
  I like Clemson in this one.
• Middle Tennessee at #15 Mississippi State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 Mississippi State is 4–0 all time against Middle Tennessee — with an average victory margin of three touchdowns.
  
  Middle Tennessee actually has the 43rd–ranked offense in the nation (compared to Mississippi State's #59 unit), but Mississippi State has the #25 defense in the land (Middle Tennessee's is 94th).
  
  I'm inclined to think Mississippi State will win rather handily.
• South Florida at #16 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: If Louisville can win this game, it will knot up the all–time series at 5&ndsh;5.
  
  And history favors it. Louisville is 3–1 at home against South Florida. The hitch is that South Florida won in 2010, the last time South Florida visited Louisville.
  
  Will history repeat itself? Well, there really isn't much difference between the two on offense — Louisville is ranked 62nd; South Florida is 67th. But the numbers on defense really make you think. Louisville is #24 in the nation; South Florida is #60.
  
  Louisville appears ready to even up the series.
• #18 Texas Tech at TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have only met twice since they stopped being members of the same conference in the mid–1990s — and both times, the home team won.
  
  They're in the same conference again, and the outcomes of their last two games are really typical of this series. Each has a winning record at home — which might be a good omen for TCU except that Texas Tech looked really good against West Virginia last week and TCU has looked really bad without its starting quarterback.
  
  (I mean, TCU lost at home to the same Iowa State team that Tech beat on the road the week before.)
  
  Texas Tech currently has the nation's 10th–best offense whereas TCU's is 45th. Now, that wouldn't be so bad — if it weren't for the fact that the Red Raiders rank fourth in defense. TCU is a respectable 15th in defense, but the fact remains that Tech is ahead of TCU in both categories — and the Red Raiders have already played Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma (both schools have yet to play Texas and Kansas State).
  
  It seems to me that TCU is a team on the way down while Tech is a team on the way up. I figured things might be rough for the Frogs, this being their first Big 12 season and all, but it might get really rough for them this weekend. I pick Texas Tech.
• #19 Rutgers at Temple, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East Network: This is the 35th time these teams have faced each other, and Rutgers holds a narrow 18–16 lead.
  
  Both teams have the advantage at home. In Rutgers' case, the record is 12–7.
  
  Rutgers also has been more productive on both sides of the ball, but neither offense has been exceptionally impressive. Rutgers, however, has the nation's 18th–best defense — much better than Temple's #61 defense.
  
  On the strength of its defense, I pick Rutgers.
• #21 Cincinnati at Toledo, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com Cincinnati has been showing up a lot on ESPN3.com lately.
  
  It's only been a three–game series so far with only one of those games — the first one, back in 1993 — having been played in Toledo. That is the only time Cincinnati has beaten Toledo, by the way.
  
  Home field has not been an advantage for either side. Toledo won the rematch in Cincinnati (and the 2001 Motor City Bowl).
  
  Offense might be the key, and both teams are ranked in the Top 30. Cincinnati's 39th–ranked defense should be better prepared to handle Toledo's offense than Toledo's #108 defense will be to stymie Cincinnati's offense.
  
  Accordingly, I have to pick Cincinnati.
• #22 Stanford at California, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: The "Big Game," as this rivalry is called, is the oldest rivalry in the Pac–12.
  
  This will be the 92nd time they have met on the football field since 1918, a streak that was interrupted only by the war years of the 1940s. Stanford leads the series and has won the last two.
  
  In the first year of the post–Andrew Luck era, Stanford's offense has struggled (currently ranked 91st). Cal's, meanwhile, has been good but not great (#56).
  
  The edge on defense belongs to Stanford (ranked 48th; Cal's is 76th).
  
  Anything can happen in a rivalry game like this one, and I pick California to take what will most likely be regarded as an upset.
• Michigan State at #23 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The battle for Michigan has been fought 86 times, and the Wolverines have won most of the time (52–30–4), but it has definitely been a streaky series in recent years.
  
  Michigan State has won the last four games in a row (and, according to the Detroit News, the Spartans, who have been disappointing this year, are eager to make it five in a row); before that, Michigan was the winner in six consecutive contests.
  
  Michigan State has never won five straight against Michigan. The Spartans had won four in a row three separate times before last year's victory — and, in their most recent such streak, they could have won seven in a row had it not been for a tie in one of their games.
  
  It's been a disappointing year for the Spartans, and I know it would make up for a lot if they could win this game, but I don't think they will. I pick Michigan.
• UNLV at #24 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBCSN: These teams met for the first time last year, and Boise State won, 48–21, at Las Vegas.
  
  Boise State was once one of the nation's most exciting offensive units, but UNLV enters this game with an edge in total offense. On the other hand, Boise has a significant edge in total defense — along with the home field advantage.
  
  I pick Boise State.

Last week: 16–2

Season: 113–25

Hoping for Turmoil at the Top

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Well, conference championship weekend is upon us.

And, being as anti–BCS as I am, I'm still hoping for some upsets that can spark a real debate over who deserves to play for the national title and who doesn't.

Right now, it appears that LSU is the clear choice for one of the slots — but what if LSU loses to Georgia this weekend?

Should Alabama be allowed to play for the national title whether LSU is there or not? Alabama won't play for its conference championship, and 'Bama's coach said, several years ago, that no team that did not play for its conference championship should be allowed to play for a national title.

What if some of the other highly ranked teams should falter this weekend? What if #3 Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma? What if #5 Virginia Tech loses to Clemson? What if the only remaining unbeaten team is Houston and the only remaining one–loss teams are Boise State, Stanford and Alabama, none of which will play for a conference title this weekend?

That's the kind of thing that can make a playoff system more likely in college football.

And that's what I want.

Idle: #2 Alabama, #4 Stanford, #6 Arkansas, #9 USC, #14 South Carolina, #17 Michigan, #20 Nebraska, #23 Penn State, #25 Florida State

Thursday

• #22 West Virginia at USF, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The home team wins this game two–thirds of the time – literally.
  
  They've played each other six times, three times at each school, and the home teams have won two of the three.
  
  I'm inclined to think the home team will prevail again. Give me USF — by a point or two.

Friday

• UCLA at #8 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Historically, UCLA has won nearly 61% of its games with Oregon.
  
  But recent history has favored the Ducks. Although the schools didn't face each other during the regular season this year, Oregon has a three–game winning streak against UCLA, and the Ducks have beaten the Bruins in eight of the 10 games they have played since 2000.
  
  Even more recently, Oregon beat USC, 38–35, on Nov. 19. The following week, USC blanked UCLA, 50–0.
  
  If USC wasn't on a suspension from postseason activity, the Trojans would be playing Oregon for the Pac–12 title in a rematch of their Nov. 19 thriller. And that would be a game worth watching.
  
  But UCLA finished second in that division and took the championship game berth in USC's place.
  
  I expect Oregon to win by at least four touchdowns. If UCLA keeps the deficit below that, that will be the upset.

Saturday

• #12 Georgia vs. #1 LSU at Atlanta, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This will be the third time in the last decade that these teams have played for the SEC championship.
  
  That series is currently tied, 1–1.
  
  Historically, LSU holds a three–game edge in its series with Georgia, 15–12–1, but in the last 20 years, it is Georgia that holds a three game advantage, 6–3 (including the conference championship games).
  
  And I think Georgia is capable of giving LSU a pretty good run this time. After all, the Bulldogs' offense is 34th in the country, but it's hard to see how it can be too productive against the second–best defense in the land.
  
  When LSU has the ball, it is hard to see how its 62nd–ranked offense can be very imposing — and Georgia's fifth–ranked defense seems well prepared for the task of stopping it.
  
  It's just plain hard to give Georgia the benefit of the doubt on anything.
  
  LSU has been facing top–notch teams all year, teams that are still ranked as the season draws to a close — Oregon, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas — and has beaten all comers.
  
  Georgia, on the other hand, faced none of those teams. Its two early losses were to teams that were and remain ranked, but it didn't play any of the SEC West's Big Three — LSU, Alabama or Arkansas — during the regular season.
  
  You can make a convincing argument that Georgia hasn't really been challenged since mid–September. I guess I'm suceptible to that because I'm so anti–BCS and would love to see anything that hastens its demise.
  
  Georgia is a double–digit underdog in this game, but I'm still going to pick Georgia — albeit hopefully — in a conference championship weekend upset special.


• #13 Oklahoma at #3 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 100th meeting between these schools, but victories for Oklahoma State have been, to put it mildly, rare.
  
  Currently, OU owns an eight–game winning streak in the series — which looks impressive to people outside Oklahoma.
  
  Speaking as someone who lived in Oklahoma for four years, I can tell you that the current winning streak is dwarfed by others in the series. Between 1967 and 1991, Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State in every year but one (1976). From 1946 to 1964, the Sooners won every encounter — 19 in all.
  
  Most people seem to be picking OSU to win this game, and it isn't hard to see why. The Cowboys are ranked third in the country in offense, and they've been getting a lot of publicity for it — but OU's offense is just as good, ranked fourth in the nation.
  
  Since there is practically no difference between the two in total offense, the key may be in total defense — and that is really no contest, even though the defenses are not nearly as spectacular as the offenses. Oklahoma's defense is a modest #52 in the country while OSU's doesn't even crack the Top 100.
  
  I pick Oklahoma.


• #5 Virginia Tech vs. #21 Clemson at Charlotte, N.C., 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: You couldn't tell it from their last five meetings, but this series once belonged to Clemson.
  
  It's been a sporadic series. They met two or three times a decade — at best — from the turn of the 20th century until the 1980s — and they have only played twice as conference rivals.
  
  On Saturday, they will play for the ACC title — and it just might be the most entertaining game of the day.
  
  Clemson hasn't beaten Virginia Tech since 1989 — and I'm not inclined to think that will change.
  
  Clemson has a narrow edge on offense. The Tigers are 29th in the country while the Hokies are 36th. Tech has a clear edge on defense, ranked 12th while Clemson is 63rd.
  
  They say defense wins championships so I guess this is Tech's opportunity to prove it. If my other predictions hold up, a win in this game could put Virginia Tech in the national championship game.
  
  Whether it does or not, though, I'm still picking Virginia Tech by nine points.


• #24 Southern Miss at #7 Houston, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: It's probably a bit of a stretch to see Houston playing in the national championship game — even if the Cougars beat Southern Miss and remain undefeated.
  
  Chances are that the folks who attend the game — or watch it on TV — will be treated to quite a show. Houston has the nation's top–ranked offense, but Southern Miss' offense is pretty explosive, too. It is ranked 15th in the country.
  
  Once again, I am reminded of the old adage that defense wins championships because Southern Miss turns the tables on Houston on the defensive side of the ball. Southern Miss has the country's 26th–best defense while Houston's defense is rather pedestrian, ranked 60th in the land.
  
  The game is for the Conference USA championship — the second time these teams have played for the conference title. Houston won the first time, and I expect Houston, with its potent offense, to win this time, too.


• New Mexico at #9 Boise State, 5 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn.: There really is no reason to expect much from New Mexico in this game.
  
  These teams have only played twice before, in 1999 and 2000, and Boise State won both times. This season, Boise State has been much better on both sides of the ball than New Mexico.
  
  I expect Boise State to absolutely hammer New Mexico.


• #15 Wisconsin vs. #11 Michigan State at Indianapolis, 7 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Since 2003, the home team has won this game — including the time the two played earlier this season in Lansing, Mich. The Spartans won that game, 37–31.
  
  This will be the 50th time these teams have played. As the Big Ten title game, it is being played in the neutral site of Indianapolis so home field track records aren't terribly relevant. Wisconsin was the winner the only other time the teams played on a neutral field — in December 1993 when the teams played in the Coca–Cola Classic in Tokyo.
  
  That offers little insight, though. Certainly, the game played earlier in Michigan provides more — except that the score didn't reflect reality. Both teams have Top 10 defenses. Michigan State's is third in the country, Wisconsin's is seventh.
  
  Wisconsin's offense is pretty good, too, ranked 12th in the country while MSU's is, by comparison, rather dismal. It is ranked 64th.
  
  I pick Wisconsin to win the rematch.


• Iowa State at #16 Kansas State, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on FSN: The history of this series has been that the home team usually wins it.
  
  But this hasn't been a typical season at Iowa State. It looked like it might be when ISU got off to a 3–4 start with three narrow non–conference wins followed by four straight conference losses. But then — inexplicably — Iowa State got hot and reeled off three straight wins, including a double–overtime thriller against Oklahoma State.
  
  Now 6–5, the Cyclones appear headed to their seventh bowl since 2000. That's pretty impressive when you consider that Iowa State played in no bowl games from 1979 to 1999.
  
  Meanwhile, Kansas State is enjoying the kind of recognition it has rarely seen since the dawn of the 21st century. But the 9–2 Wildcats were unable to defeat Oklahoma State when they had their opportunity.
  
  I got the feeling, as I watched parts of Iowa State's game with Oklahoma last week, that ISU is running out of gas. The numbers say ISU has the better offense and KSU has the better defense.
  
  Can't win if you don't score, but scoring hasn't been a problem for Iowa State in recent years. Scoring more than K–State, though, has been another matter, and I think ISU will come up just short this time, the way it has tended to do in recent years.
  
  Kansas State by a touchdown.


• UNLV at #18 TCU, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: Unless you are a TCU fan, I can't think of a reason for a college football enthusiast to watch this game.
  
  UNLV, 1–10, simply doesn't appear capable of beating TCU, 9–2. TCU is light years ahead of UNLV on both offense and defense.
  
  And there isn't really any hope to be found in the series record. TCU is 8–1 all time against UNLV and enjoys a seven–game winning streak (UNLV's only win came in 1997).
  
  As TCU departs for the Big 12 next season, the Frogs should be leaving the Mountain West on a winning note. TCU is the clear choice in this one.


• Texas at #19 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: If you grew up in the old Southwest Conference (as I did) — or even if your memory only includes the Big 12 in the post–SWC era — it is not strange to see these teams play each other.
  
  They've been playing since 1903, when they first met in the neutral site of San Antonio. Texas won that first encounter, 48–0. In what may have been an indication of the futility of the Bears' efforts in this series, Texas shut out Baylor in their next two meetings as well.
  
  In fact, the Longhorns either shut out the Bears or held them to less than 10 points in all but one of their first 10 games. Meanwhile, Texas scored at least 11 points (and, often, much more than that) in all but one of those games — the exception was the only one Texas didn't win (a 6–6 tie).
  
  That has been the history of this series, which will be renewed for the 100th time on Saturday. Baylor usually struggles to score — and win — no matter where they play. The Longhorns have been a little more successful at home than in Waco, where they play this year, but even on the Bears' home field, Texas has won about two–thirds of the time.
  
  And the Longhorns have won their last six games in Waco. Baylor hasn't beaten Texas there since 1997.
  
  As I say, it isn't strange for these teams to play each other. Nor is it strange for one of the teams to be ranked. But the ranked team has almost always been Texas, not Baylor.
  
  The main attraction in this game has to be those times when Baylor has the ball. The Bears' offense, led by Robert Griffin III, and the Longhorns' defense are both in the Top 10.
  
  Texas has a mediocre offense, but it should be able to handle Baylor's defense, which is one of the worst in the country.
  
  Frankly, I'd love to see Baylor win. Combined with the Bears' win in Austin last year, that would give Baylor a rare winning streak against Texas. How rare is it? Well, Baylor has had a couple of two–game winning streaks against Texas in my lifetime, one more during my parents' lifetimes and one more during my grandparents' lifetimes.
  
  The Bears have never won more than two in a row against Texas.
  
  But I just can't shake the feeling that Baylor will be undone by its defense. I pick Texas to win.

Last week: 15–1

Season: 204–51

College Football's Feast of Rivalries

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I've been following college football for a long time now, and I can't think of a time when there was as much uncertainty — spoken and unspoken — on as many fronts as there is today.

On perhaps the most minimal level, college football fans are quite familiar with not really knowing which teams will play for the national title — and that certainly appears to be the case this year. It is generally assumed that top–ranked LSU will be one of the teams invited to play for the BCS' mythical crown, but the Tigers still have to get past my alma mater, the University of Arkansas, on Friday afternoon — and then the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game the next weekend.

Neither assignment will be easy.

As the Arkansas–LSU game is on this week's Top 25 schedule, I will discuss it — and why I think it is more than possible that LSU will lose — a bit later. But, if LSU wins and goes on to play Georgia, it's worth remembering that those teams have faced each other in the SEC Championship twice — and each team won one (by almost identical scores, too).

It won't be easy for LSU to beat Georgia.

The currently 9–2 Bulldogs have their traditional season–ending game with Georgia Tech this week, and there is a severe price to be paid if one overlooks that rivalry, but I'm sure the Bulldogs will endeavor to ration their emotion, knowing that one of three teams — LSU, Alabama or Arkansas — will be waiting for them in Atlanta next week.

What a story it would be if Georgia coach Mark Richt — virtually given up for dead after an 0–2 start — could win the SEC title and end the national title hopes of one of those three schools — because the winner of the SEC West is sure to be entertaining those thoughts next week.

The Bulldogs will be grateful just to be there and are sure to be the underdog, no matter which SEC West team they face (and, as Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated observed, rarely has a single conference — let alone a division within a conference — been so well represented at the top of the national polls).

Consequently, all eyes this week will be on the two big games in the SEC West, Arkansas–LSU and Alabama–Auburn. Ironically, the only team of the four who cannot fantasize about winning a national title is Auburn — last year's national champion.

Without Cam Newton, the Tigers have been reduced to mere mortal status — but that doesn't mean they aren't capable of pulling off an upset.

So Auburn gets its chance to upset the apple cart this week, then it will be Georgia's turn.

Well, that's what could happen on the SEC's side. It is likely that one of the teams in the national title game will be from the SEC — but probably not if Georgia wins in Atlanta next week.

There still would be the matter of which team would face LSU, Alabama or Arkansas. Will it be Stanford? Oklahoma State? Virginia Tech? How about Boise State? Or undefeated Houston? There are several potential upsets out there, too — Notre Dame might well knock off Stanford; Virginia could surprise Virginia Tech; who knows what else might happen?

It's the point in the schedule that is loaded with traditional rivalries, and those are a different breed. Records don't matter too much.

Being as anti–BCS as I am, of course, I am openly pulling for any chaos that will erupt — except where my alma mater is concerned! If the system works in the Razorbacks' favor, I will tolerate it. But, in general — and on principle — I think that, the sooner college football goes to a real playoff system, the better.

Let it be decided on the field — like the games in Waco, Los Angeles and Ames last week.

Idle: #5 Oklahoma State, #16 Kansas State, #19 TCU

Friday

• #3 Arkansas at #1 LSU, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Most teams would probably be intimidated by LSU but not Arkansas.
  
  The Razorbacks have beaten LSU in three of the last four years — including a triple–overtime thriller in Baton Rouge in 2007, the last time LSU won a national championship.
  
  I can certainly see why the casual viewer would be inclined to think that LSU will win. The Tigers are ranked second in the nation in defense — and I've been hearing the adage "Defense wins championships" all my life.
  
  I guess this will be a good test. The Razorbacks have a far better offense than LSU's. In fact, Arkansas' offense (ranked #21 in the nation) has been consistently better than any other offense in the Southeastern Conference.
  
  Arkansas also has been dealing with a team tragedy this week. Freshman tight end Garrett Uekman died Sunday, the victim of an undiagnosed heart condition. On the day after Thanksgiving, I'm betting that his teammates will dedicate their game with LSU to him — and Arkansas will win in an upset.


• #8 Houston at Tulsa, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: There have been some outrageous scores in this series, almost always on Houston's side.
  
  Probably the single most outrageous score was the day in 1968 when the Cougars ran up 100 points at home against a hapless Tulsa squad, but a couple of years earlier Houston tallied 73 points on Tulsa. In 1988, Houston registered 82 points and then scored 70 points in their 2008 meeting.
  
  Sometimes the scores are just wild on both sides. The last time these teams played in Tulsa, Houston won, 46–45. (The time before that, Tulsa won, 56–7.)
  
  I don't know if football fans are in for another wild score this time, but I do know, as do most college football fans, that Houston has one of the most potent offenses in America. What a lot of people don't know is that Tulsa has a pretty good offense, too (currently ranked 19th in the nation).
  
  I expect Houston to win — but it will be a lot closer than many people expect.


• Iowa at #22 Nebraska, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This has been Nebraska's first season as a member of the Big Ten and many of the Cornhuskers' conference games have been their first — or nearly their first — with various teams.
  
  But Iowa is a familiar foe — historically. This will be the 31st time the teams have met, but it will be their first game in more than 10 years and only the seventh time they have played since 1979.
  
  Half of the games were played in the 1930s and 1940s — so the outcomes of those games don't really mean much in the 21st century.
  
  But, no matter which decade or era is being discussed, Nebraska has generally dominated Iowa. Overall, the Cornhuskers have won 70% of their games with the Hawkeyes — and 83% of the games played since 1979.
  
  The fact that the game is being played in Lincoln probably works in Nebraska's favor, too, but I don't think the weather will be a factor. Current forecasts for Friday are calling for midday temperatures in the upper 40s or lower 50s in Nebraska — roughly the same as the forecast for Iowa.
  
  I expect Nebraska, with a slight advantage on offense and a more decisive one on defense, to beat the Hawkeyes by about 10 points.

Saturday

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• #2 Alabama at Auburn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: As it has so often before, the "Iron Bowl" appears destined to play a key role in the national championship race.
  
  Until 1998, this game was almost always played in the neutral city of Birmingham, but every game since then has been played at Auburn or Tuscaloosa. I guess that's been good news for Auburn. The Tigers have winning records on both campuses; the Crimson Tide won nearly two–thirds of the games played in Birmingham so they lead the overall series.
  
  As an Arkansas graduate, I would love nothing more than to see the Razorbacks win on Friday and the Crimson Tide lose on Saturday — because that combination would put Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game next week.
  
  And I do believe, as I wrote earlier, that Arkansas will beat LSU — but Alabama has such a ferocious defense. It's the best in the country, and it was pretty good last year, too — and, without Cam Newton to engineer a comeback (dubbed "The Camback") this year, I don't see how the Crimson Tide can be denied.
  
  I pick Alabama — reluctantly.


• #22 Notre Dame at #4 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This series began in the mid–1920s, when Notre Dame's famed "Four Horsemen," coached by Knute Rockne, defeated Stanford and Pop Warner in the Rose Bowl.
  
  The teams played a few times after that, but the series really didn't become an annual event (not even annual, really) until 1988.
  
  Overall, Notre Dame has won 68% of the games it has played with Stanford, and the Irish won seven in a row against weak–to–mediocre Stanford teams between 2001 and 2008, but the Cardinal has won the last two.
  
  These days, when people think of Stanford's football team, they probably think of quarterback Andrew Luck, and it is true that he is a major reason why Stanford's offense is 10th in the country. But the Irish have been quietly compiling some pretty impressive offensive numbers of their own; they're currently ranked 33rd in the country.
  
  Neither team has been too shabby on the defensive side of the ball, either, and there is virtually no difference between them. Stanford is ranked 24th in the nation, Notre Dame is ranked 28th.
  
  Unless Luck is injured in what seems increasingly likely to be his final home game, I think Stanford will win the game and extend its streak against Notre Dame to three in a row.


• #6 Virginia Tech at #24 Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I'm sure it is no exaggeration to say that probably few people expected the Cavaliers to be playing for the division crown.
  
  But there was really no reason to think that Virginia would get its improbable win over the Seminoles — without which the Coastal Division race would be over and the Cavaliers would enter this game with nothing other than in–state pride going for them.
  
  However, that one–point win over Florida State has put the Cavaliers a victory over Tech away from the ACC Championship Game with Clemson. Virginia didn't play Clemson, but Virginia Tech did. It was the only game the Hokies lost (so far, anyway), and you have to figure that Virginia Tech would like a second shot against the Tigers.
  
  But the Hokies have to take care of business first, and that could be pretty challenging. Tech's numbers have been better than Virginia's on both offense and defense — but not by much — and having an excited home crowd pulling for them could lift the Cavaliers to victory.
  
  But I don't think that will happen. I'll take Virginia Tech by a pair of field goals.


• Wyoming at #7 Boise State, 1 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn.: Wyoming is 0–5 against Boise State.
  
  But the Broncos should be concerned. Wyoming is 7–3 and its only conference blemish is its loss to TCU, who also beat Boise State. Whoever wins will be the runnerup in the conference — and perhaps the recipient of a respectable bowl bid.
  
  There's a lot at stake, but I see no reason to think that Wyoming can do something it has never done before. There can be room for only one of those in a given football season, and Baylor already claimed it last week.
  
  I pick Boise State to beat Wyoming by a wide margin.


• Oregon State at #9 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Known as the "Civil War," this is the seventh–oldest rivalry in America.
  
  It was first played in 1894, and the schools have been playing as Division I rivals since 1916. In 94 meetings since that time, the teams are nearly even (Oregon leads, 45–43–6), and, strangely enough, the visiting team has a slight edge. In games played at Oregon State, Oregon leads 23–18–3. In games played at Oregon, Oregon State leads, 21–20–3. (Six games were played in the "neutral" city of Portland prior to 1952, and Oregon State won four of those).
  
  In recent years, the advantage has belonged to Oregon, winner of three straight and 11 of the 17 games played since 1994. I think that will continue. I pick Oregon by four touchdowns.


• UCLA at #10 Southern Cal, 9 p.m. (Central) on FSN: The rivalry between UCLA and Southern Cal is extremely unusual in American sports because they are not just in–state rivals. They are in–city rivals, with campuses that are, perhaps, 15 miles apart.
  
  Consequently, with more than 65,000 undergraduate students between them, many of whom remain in Los Angeles or southern California after graduation, there is a high likelihood that current students and alumni of both schools will interact on a daily basis, even if no sport is in season.
  
  And that tends to intensify the competition.
  
  It is also intensified on those occasions when the winner is likely, as it has been many times, to win or share the conference championship and represent the conference in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Based on the overall records, USC (9–2) would appear to have the advantage over UCLA (6–5), but that overlooks the fact that nonconference schedules are not created equal. UCLA lost to Houston and Texas in September; USC defeated Minnesota and Syracuse during the same period.
  
  In conference play, both lost to Stanford — UCLA by a far more decisive margin. USC lost to Arizona State; UCLA did not. But UCLA lost to Utah and Arizona — and USC did not.
  
  The recent history of this series strongly favors USC. The Trojans have won all but one of the 12 games played between the schools since 1999.
  
  I'll pick USC by a couple of touchdowns.


• #11 Michigan State at Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: There is a certain symmetry that exists in this series.
  
  Michigan State is 18–6 at home against Northwestern — and 18–6 on the road against Northwestern.
  
  That's a three–fourths victory rate in either place — and that's the Spartans' ratio against Northwestern in the last four games between the schools.
  
  It isn't always that neat, of course. From 1991 to 2006, the series was pretty competitive. MSU won seven times, Northwestern won five.
  
  But the Spartans seem to have been particularly successful on the road against Northwestern, winning eight of their last 10 games in Evanston.
  
  I've seen no compelling reason to pick against the Spartans. I expect Michigan State to win the game.


• Iowa State at #12 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Beware, Sooners. Iowa State just beat your in–state rivals in double overtime and now comes to Norman looking for more Okie blood.
  
  As much of an upset as Iowa State's victory over Oklahoma State was, though, a triumph over OU would have to be even more shocking.
  
  Oklahoma has won 12 straight against Iowa State and has lost only once to the Cyclones in the last 50 years.
  
  In a series that goes back to the 1920s, Iowa State has won less than 10% of the time, so there aren't too many bright spots for the Cyclones. But if you really want something to hang your hat on, the two most recent Iowa State victories over Oklahoma came in Norman — in 1961 and 1990. So, too, did their 7–7 tie in 1981.
  
  And those are all the games with Iowa State that Oklahoma did not win in the last half century. The Sooners are unblemished in the 21st century, and I expect it to stay that way. Oklahoma should win.


• #13 Georgia at #25 Georgia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Ever notice how the nicknames that are given to many rivalries tend to be sort of politically correct in their tone? I mean, they reflect the general nature of a rivalry, but not the true spirit.
  
  In that context, the Georgia–Georgia Tech rivalry is almost a breath of fresh air in its honesty — it is known as "Clean, Old–Fashioned Hate."
  
  Each side has something to hate about the other, and, based on the numbers, the very best that each team has to offer will be on the field at the same time. The numbers say that Georgia Tech has the better offense and that Georgia has the better defense.
  
  All else being equal, I tend to lean to the stronger defense. And that is what I'm doing in this one. I'll go with Georgia.


• #18 Clemson at #14 South Carolina, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Roughly 130 miles separate the two campuses. It was only natural that they would become rivals.
  
  The rivalry between the schools goes back to the 19th century. The rivalry between the football teams goes back to the turn of the century.
  
  Most of the football games have been played at South Carolina, but Clemson has won more than 60% of the time in spite of having to be the visiting team on most occasions. In recent years, however, the Gamecocks have held the upper hand, winning three of the last five contests.
  
  South Carolina's defense is fifth in the country (compared to Clemson's rather ordinary defensive unit) — and should be tested by Clemson's 18th–ranked offense (South Carolina's offense has really struggled).
  
  Once again, I will go with the stronger defense and pick South Carolina to win by a touchdown.


• #20 Penn State at #15 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Since these teams became Big Ten rivals in the 1990s, they have played in Wisconsin six times, and each team has won three.
  
  Thus, the winner of Saturday's game will take the lead in their conference series in Madison. More than that, the winner will advance to the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.
  
  In those previous six games, though, Joe Paterno was on the sidelines. This will be the 15th time the schools have played each other in football but only the second time that Paterno hasn't been part of it.
  
  We're still in the early stages of the post–JoePa era, and I'm sure there will be lots of stories like that in the next year or two.
  
  By next fall, the returning Nittany Lions will have had nearly a year to adjust to the new reality. But it's all still new to them, and I don't think they're able, at this point, to compartmentalize the way they need to do to rise to the occasion against the Badgers.
  
  I think Wisconsin will win.


• Ohio State at #17 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Nearly 12 years ago, ESPN said this was the greatest of all sports rivalries.
  
  There are others I would have included on ESPN's list, but, when I was a child, the Ohio State–Michigan game was more than a football game. It was an event.
  
  It isn't that way anymore. Oh, usually one team, maybe both, will be ranked, which makes it interesting, but when I was growing up, both teams were usually in the Top 10 — and the winner of their game almost always went to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Michigan can grab a share of the Leaders Division championship but, because the Wolverines lost to Michigan State earlier this season, cannot play for the Big Ten crown.
  
  They can, however, play for pride and bragging rights — and to snap a seven–game losing streak in the series. I think Michigan will win the game — by a touchdown.


• #21 Baylor vs. Texas Tech at Arlington, Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: When you've just beaten the Oklahoma Sooners for the first time in school history, what do you do for an encore?
  
  For Baylor, I suppose, a fitting finale would be to defeat the other team that beat Oklahoma this year (except the Bears still have a game to play against Texas on Dec. 3).
  
  The Red Raiders have played the Bears more often than any other team. Theirs is a series that began long before the teams became Southwest Conference rivals.
  
  Tech has won 15 straight, including the last two, which have been played in Dallas and Arlington. History suggests the Bears would have been better off keeping the home–and–away arrangement. Even though they have lost every game played since 1996, they do have a winning record against Tech in Waco.
  
  Tech needs to have history on its side, though, because the Red Raiders haven't had much else this season. They've lost six of their last season (with the exception being their win in Norman — go figure) while Baylor is riding a three–game winning streak.
  
  I can see in which directions these teams are headed, and I pick Baylor by four points.

Last week: 15–7

Season: 189–50

BCS Chaos

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I have made no secret of my distaste for the so–called Bowl Championship Series — or BCS — that is supposed to match the two best college football teams in a national championship game at season's end, even though neither team must earn its spot in a playoff system.

Unless one or both must play in a conference championship game.

But no champions from other conferences must be conquered to reach the national title game. Only the pollsters and computers must be persuaded of the teams' worthiness — and they need not be familiar with the teams they choose.

In fact, there probably are coaches who vote in their poll or sports writers who vote in their poll who have had little, if any, exposure to the teams that ultimately are anointed to play for all the marbles.

That is my greatest gripe about the BCS system, I suppose.

Let's assume, if only for a minute, that LSU wins the SEC championship game against Georgia. A case can be made that the participants in that game earned their berths on the field — and, since the championship game will be played on a day when there will be very few other college football games, it is logical to assume that most, if not all, of the coaches who participate in their poll and the sports writers who participate in their poll will see the game.

But week in and week out, how many coaches do you suppose take time out from their own game preparation responsibilities to familiarize themselves with three or four dozen college teams by watching tape of and/or reading articles about them?

For that matter, how many sports writers take time from their coverage of local or regional programs to view the tapes and read the articles relating to those same three or four dozen college teams from around the country?

Probably few in either instance.

But, like lemmings allegedly committing mass suicide when they migrate, they follow the group. What may have begun as the perception of a few becomes a self–fulfilling prophecy.

Unless fate intervenes.

Fate intervened this weekend.

LSU, the top–ranked team in the nation, almost surely will remain where it was when the weekend began.

But #2 Oklahoma State as certainly will drop after its double–overtime loss to Iowa State on Friday night — a development that was doubly shocking. The Cowboys were expected to whip the Cyclones, even before the news reached the team that the OSU women's basketball coach and one of his assistants were killed in an airplane crash in central Arkansas.

News of the tragedy was expected to serve as even more motivation for the Cowboys — but it didn't.

They were stunned, I guess — or maybe they were simply lethargic. Their big showdown with Oklahoma is two weeks away — and the Cowboys have next week off. How could 10–0 Oklahoma State, with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State, get excited about playing 5–4 Iowa State?

Whatever it was, the Cowboys lost the game.

Folks were still absorbing that news when a couple of other bombshells were dropped on the Top 10.

First, the other Oklahoma school went down in spectacular fashion. The once–beaten Sooners faced Baylor University, a team that had never beaten Oklahoma in 19 previous attempts. In fact, it had been more than a decade since Baylor even came within two touchdowns of OU.

But, on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, the Bears beat the fifth–ranked Sooners — pretty convincingly, too.

And, as that equally shocking development was playing out in the heart of Texas, there was even more.

Fourth–ranked Oregon was losing its second game of the season. The Ducks' first defeat was way back at the beginning of the season in a Labor Day weekend clash with LSU. Oregon had been craving a rematch in the national championship game, but the loss to 18th–ranked Southern California undoubtedly put an end to any such hopes.

It can be argued, for that matter, that Oklahoma is also out of the national championship conversation. And, although they have only one loss, that one loss — to a six–win team — is probably too devastating for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to overcome.

Well, I've been saying it would take a state of utter chaos to build momentum for the implementation of a playoff system — and we may be witnessing the start of such a state.

But I want it to go beyond what has happened this weekend.

On Friday, my alma mater, the University of Arkansas (ranked sixth when the weekend began and certain to move up in the rankings later today following a 44–17 victory over Mississippi State yesterday) will travel to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Baton Rouge can be a scary place for most football teams — but not necessarily for Arkansas.

Sure, the Razorbacks are 1–4 in Baton Rouge since 2001, but all but one of those games were decided by three points or less. And the Razorbacks have won three of their last four games against the Tigers.

Another victory is not out of the question — and it could propel the Razorbacks into the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Especially if Auburn upends currently second–ranked Alabama in Saturday's Iron Bowl. If you're scoffing at that notion, let me remind you that Alabama–Auburn is a rivalry of long standing — and rivalries like that operate in spheres of their own.

There are other things that could happen in other games to change the dynamics of the BCS and make more college football fans think about the system that currently chooses the national champion and how it compares to a legitimate playoff system.

Undoubtedly, those things will be evident later today when the latest polls come out and then tonight when the latest BCS standings are released.

In the end, LSU may well be the only unbeaten team standing and may be the unquestionable choice to be national champion.

But I'm still pulling for chaos, and if what happened on Friday and Saturday is the beginning of revolutionary chaos, then all I can say is ...

Let the revolution begin.

But, for now, I am pleased.

At Last, LSU and Alabama Face Off

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I guess it was to be expected that, with the two top–ranked teams facing each other this Saturday, attention quickly would focus on the occasions when such a confrontation has occurred during the regular season.

As Richard Rothschild observes for Sports Illustrated, games pitting #1 and #2 against each other were "as rare as full solar eclipses in the pre–BCS era — even in the bowls."

Some people have even suggested that these teams should meet again in January for the national title. Chris Dufresne of the Los Angeles Times opposes the idea. Dufresne says it wouldn't be fair to the other conferences.

Of course, the whole BCS concept was devised to simultaneously appease people like me (who have favored an actual playoff system for a long time) and people who wanted to preserve the bowl system with the two top–ranked teams playing each other at the end of the season for the national title.

One of the beautiful things about a playoff system is that conference rivals could meet in such a rematch if they both take care of business. It's happened in the NCAA Tournament, and no one complained that a certain conference got special breaks, as Dufresne suggests might well be alleged if LSU and Alabama are paired off in New Orleans. The talk at the Final Four was how the conference had proven on the court that it was superior to the others.

If the NFL followed a similar approach in determining who played in the Super Bowl, last February's game would have been played between New England and Atlanta (both of whom went down in the second round) — not Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

That is the advantage I have found in a playoff. Teams that make it to the championship game (or series) have really earned the right to participate in it – on a big stage before a very big audience.

Not to mention that all the postseason games or series that precede it have meaning as well. One of my biggest gripes with the BCS arrangement is that it has rendered all other bowl games virtually meaningless — except to the participating teams and their fans.

All of which is not to say that the winner of the LSU–Alabama game won't deserve to play for a national title in January. I am of the opinion that, if a team wins the Southeastern Conference, that team must be regarded as one of the best in college football.

And they certainly appear to be evenly matched.

Most football fans agree that LSU and Alabama are remarkably similar on the field, and some — Steve Eubanks of Fox Sports South, for one — are saying the difference could come down to the coaches. David Climer of The Tennessean says LSU's Les Miles is the wild card.

"He might fake a field goal," Climer writes. "He might fake a punt. Heck, he might fake a heart attack if he thought it would give his Tigers an edge."

The winner of Saturday's game has to be seen as being in the SEC West driver's seat — but it won't be over for either one when the final whistle blows. LSU must still play Arkansas, and Alabama must still face Auburn — two truly intense rivalry games. And neither can afford to overlook the Mississippi schools each must face this month.

Clearly, there will be hurdles yet to be leaped by both teams. To prematurely crown either SEC champ when neither has clinched even the SEC West title would be eerily reminiscent of the December day in 1969 when #1 Texas edged #2 Arkansas, and President Nixon proclaimed Texas the national champion — even though Penn State was also undefeated, and none of the bowl games had been played yet.

LSU and Alabama are playing a full month before one of the two — presumably — will be playing in the SEC title game — against either 10th–ranked South Carolina or 18th–ranked Georgia.

And whoever represents the West will, in all likelihood, be the favorite to prevail.

But that's why they play the games, isn't it? And, in the SEC, anything can happen.

Idle: #11 Clemson, #12 Virginia Tech, #16 Penn State, #22 Georgia Tech, #25 Auburn

Friday

• #21 USC at Colorado, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams have played each other five times before, and Colorado has won every encounter.
  
  In fact, USC has seldom scored against Colorado, even the last time they met, in 2002.
  
  They will be playing more often, now that they are in the same conference, and I expect the Trojans to end their drought against Colorado soon — this weekend, in fact.
  
  But it appears that USC coach Lane Kiffin's propensity for blaming the officials when things go sour is running out of steam.
  
  Southern California should win this game, but, win or lose, Kiffin needs to accept what happens on the field with grace.

Saturday

• #1 LSU at #2 Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: By college football standards, this is an ancient rivalry.
  
  It dates back to 1902, and this will be the 73rd time these teams have faced each other.
  
  Alabama holds the historical edge, 44–23–5, and the Tigers have struggled in Tuscaloosa, as just about everyone does. But, although the Tigers lost the last time they visited Alabama, they won their four previous trips there.
  
  I wouldn't advise offense enthusiasts to watch this game. Defense figures to be dominant. Alabama's defense is first in the nation; LSU's is fourth.
  
  In fact, as this showdown has approached, the talk in Louisiana has been of the opportunity it offers to LSU's linebackers, according to Les East of the Baton Rouge (La.) Advocate.
  
  The game is a sellout — officially, but there are tickets available for those who are prepared to part with "from several hundred dollars up to $2,500 per ticket," reports Amy Wold of the Advocate.
  
  My living room isn't fancy, but I'll take it. I can watch the game in reasonable comfort. I can get something to eat or go to the bathroom without having to stand in line. I don't have to mess with traffic after the game.
  
  And I will predict that LSU will win a close one.


• #17 Kansas State at #3 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is another old series, although it is rarely recognized as such because most people probably think of KSU as a basketball school.
  
  The first game in the series was played when Woodrow Wilson was president, and OSU has been winning regularly, wherever the game has been played. But the Cowboys have been particularly successful in Stillwater, where they have won the last two.
  
  Nevertheless, both victories were by narrow margins, and the Wildcats won the previous four times they played there so home field may not be that much of an advantage, even for this high–octane OSU team.
  
  But because the Cowboys are such a high–octane team, I will pick Oklahoma State to win by 20 points.


• #4 Stanford at Oregon State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Stanford has dominated this series, and its domination has been pretty consistent no matter where the two have played.
  
  In Corvallis, Oregon State has been marginally more likely to beat Stanford than if the game is played in California, but Stanford has won more than 60% of the time in both places.
  
  In the last four years, though, the home team has won — which would appear to favor Oregon State. Even though Stanford is the one that has been in the mix for the national title of late.
  
  As Michael J. Fox asserted in "Back to the Future," history — well, recent history, anyway — is going to change. I pick Stanford to win by three touchdowns.


• #5 Boise State at UNLV, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is the first meeting between these two schools, which means a new chapter in collegiate athletics is being written in Las Vegas this weekend.
  
  And UNLV has had its moments in athletics — mostly in basketball but occasionally in football, too — so one might think this could be an intriguing game. More intriguing than the numbers would suggest.
  
  But those numbers are compelling. In total offense, Boise State ranks 12th. UNLV is 116th. In total defense, Boise State is 16th. UNLV is 110th. Any questions?
  
  I'll take Boise State by five touchdowns.


• #6 Oregon at Washington, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Oregon has won seven straight against Washington, and the Ducks haven't lost in Seattle since 2003.
  
  I can't say that the winning streak is misleading. The closest score in all that time was 34–14; the widest was last year, when Oregon won, 53–16.
  
  And things don't necessarily look like they will be any better for UW fans this time, even though Washington is the host team. Oregon has the nation's sixth–rated total offense (Washington is #41). Defense is hardly the strength of either squad — Oregon is 72nd in the country, Washington is 95th.
  
  The Eugene (Ore.) Register–Guard reports that LaMichael James is "100 percent" and ready to return to the lineup after missing two games with an elbow injury — which would suggest that Oregon's offense could be on the brink of its most productive game of the season.
  
  Perhaps it is. But I'm going to wager that it will be much closer than that — closer than it's been in more than 10 years. I pick Oregon to win by 10 points.


• Texas A&M at #7 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: John Shinn of the Norman (Okla.) Transcript writes that Texas A&M, which fell from the rankings recently, poses an unusual challenge for Oklahoma, which is back in the top 10 after a one–week hiatus.
  
  "Texas A&M cannot be described as a passing or running team," Shinn writes. "It does both very well."
  
  My guess is that the Sooners will be able to solve the mystery. Being at home will help.
  
  The Aggies and Sooners had been playing each other off and on since 1903 when they became conference rivals in 1996 — but they had not played recently. They had only played twice in nearly 50 years.
  
  Texas A&M won the first three games it played with Oklahoma in the Big 12 Conference, but then a pattern emerged — Oklahoma won 10 of its next 11 encounters with the Aggies.
  
  I remember that exception. It came in 2002, and it was the source of many conversations with a friend and co–worker who had graduated from A&M and had been dreading that game.
  
  The game was played in College Station that year, as was the one that was played last year. Those are the only Aggie victories in the series since 1998 — and A&M hasn't won in Norman since 1997.
  
  Wins in Norman have been exceedingly rare for the Aggies. Historically, they've handled OU at home (9–5) but they have been practically incapable of winning in Norman (2–13). Prior to 1997, A&M's only win in Norman came in 1945.
  
  I just can't see the Aggies reversing that trend this year — and, since A&M is bound for the SEC next year, this may be Texas A&M's last chance. Oklahoma's offense is ranked second in the nation; A&M's defense is ranked 90th. When the Aggies have the ball, it will be in the hands of the nation's seventh–ranked offense, but Oklahoma's 34th–ranked defense seems better equipped to handle it.
  
  Give me Oklahoma by a couple of touchdowns.


• #10 South Carolina at #8 Arkansas, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN There's going to be a lot on the line in Fayetteville.
  
  For one thing, the host team will be trying to keep up with the winner of the LSU–Alabama game in the SEC West.
  
  It seems so strange to me that these teams should be playing in such an important SEC matchup — because, until these schools joined the Southeastern Conference in 1992, they had never faced each other in football.
  
  As the conference newcomers, they were assigned to face each other in annual non&ndsh;divisional contests — while their games with all their other non–divisional rivals have been played on a rotating basis.
  
  With no history prior to 1992, this series has been establishing its trends in the last couple of decades — and one clear trend is that where the game is being played does matter.
  
  If it is being played in South Carolina, the Gamecocks are more likely to win than they are if the game is being played in Arkansas — which probably isn't saying much. The teams have played in South Carolina 10 times, and each team has won five games.
  
  Nevertheless, that's better than the Gamecocks' record in Arkansas, which is 2–7. And South Carolina has only won once in Arkansas since winning there in 1997.
  
  That doesn't mean Arkansas can depend on a victory, though. Arkansas' offense is 25th in the nation, but it will be facing the best defense it has faced since it played Alabama in September. South Carolina is sixth in the country in defense, but its 64th–ranked offense might be evenly matched with Arkansas' #71 defense.
  
  South Carolina still has a realistic hope of playing in its second straight SEC championship game. It holds the head–to–head tiebreaker with Georgia, the team with which it currently shares the SEC East lead, but a loss to Arkansas could ruin that. Georgia still has SEC games with Auburn and Kentucky, but the Bulldogs have enjoyed success against both in recent years and could slip past the Gamecocks if they stumble in Fayetteville.
  
  I expect a close game, but home field advantage will provide just enough of an edge for the Razorbacks. I pick Arkansas by a field goal.


• Northwestern at #9 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These teams haven't played since the Alamo Bowl in December 2000 — and they only played three times prior to that, but the Cornhuskers have won three of the four games.
  
  This will be the third time the teams have played in Lincoln — the first two were in 1902 and 1974 — and Nebraska is 2–0 at home against Northwestern.
  
  Lincoln is one of those places where it really is tough for the visiting team to win. In the future, Northwestern may be more competitive there. But not this year. I expect Nebraska to win by a couple of touchdowns.


• #13 Michigan at Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The first game in this series was played in Detroit in 1900.
  
  Since that day, Michigan has dominated the series with Iowa, winning more than 70% of the time. But the Hawkeyes have won the last two meetings, and both teams have won two of the last four played in Iowa.
  
  Six of their last 10 meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. I'll pick Michigan to win by a margin that is consistent with that trend — a field goal.


• #14 Houston at UAB, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Houston trails this series by one game, mostly because the Cougars have struggled to beat Alabama–Birmingham on the road.
  
  I think that is likely to change, though. Behind the receiving of Patrick Edwards and Tyron Carrier and the passing of Case Keenum, Houston has the nation's top–ranked offense (UAB's is 95th).
  
  Since defense is not a priority at either school, I am inclined to think that Houston should win this game with its potent offense.


• Minnesota at #15 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: It's too bad, from the Gophers' point of view, that this game isn't being played in Minnesota.
  
  The teams are dead even there with 11 wins apiece, and Minnesota has won four of the last five, whereas MSU holds a 15–6 edge in Lansing (and Minnesota has only won twice there since 1976).
  
  Aside from the record of past seasons, though, the record from this season benefits the Spartans, too. Minnesota is 2–6. For awhile there, things were looking up for the Gophers. They were going to bowl games every year, but it looks like this will be their third bowl–less season in the last five.
  
  Michigan State, meanwhile, is 6–2 — and was unbeaten in the Big Ten until being strangled at Nebraska last week. Now it is anyone's guess who will win the Legends Division — but Michigan State has no games to give away since the Cornhuskers hold the head–to–head tiebreaker.
  
  Everything favors Michigan State in this one.


• New Mexico State at #18 Georgia, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on CSS: These teams have played three previous times. All three games were played at Georgia, and the Bulldogs won all three games.
  
  The only reason to think that this game will be any different is if one expects Georgia to have some sort of letdown after its win over Florida last week. True, the two are rivals, but I think a letdown might be more likely if Florida had been undefeated and the defending national champion going into last Saturday's game.
  
  As it is, though, I expect Georgia to win easily.


• Purdue at #19 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: How quickly things change in college football.
  
  Only a few weeks ago, there was talk of Wisconsin sneaking into a national championship game against LSU, Alabama or Oklahoma. But in recent weeks, not only has OU gone down to defeat, but Wisconsin now finds itself mired in a two–game conference losing streak, and all such national title talk has evaporated.
  
  Heck, even a berth in the Rose Bowl seems like a longshot now.
  
  The Badgers haven't lost three consecutive Big Ten games since 2008 (when they actually lost four in a row), and I don't think they will match that dubious achievement this time, either.
  
  It doesn't seem fair, does it? Wisconsin lost two road games by a total of 10 points against two traditional conference powers and nearly lost its spot in the rankings yet the Badgers have the 10th–best offense and the 11th–best defense in the land. Purdue (4–4) isn't in the top 50 in either category.
  
  Wisconsin leads this series, almost entirely on the strength of the Badgers' dominance at home. Actually, Wisconsin has been successful against Purdue both at home and on the road, but the Badgers' record at home (23–13–5) has been much more impressive than their record at Purdue (18–16–3).
  
  But Wisconsin has won its last five against Purdue so the location hasn't really mattered, I guess — except for the fact both of Purdue's wins over the Badgers since 1997 have come in Wisconsin.
  
  I don't think that will happen this time. Give me Wisconsin by three touchdowns.


• #20 Arizona State at UCLA, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: Stanford's Andrew Luck gets all the reviews, but Arizona State's Brock Osweiler is every bit as important to his team.
  
  He has completed nearly two–thirds of his passes (he's thrown more passes than Luck has) and has a rating of 146.41. In fact, he seems so focused on football it's hard to believe that not too long ago he approached his collegiate career with considerable ambiguity, "shuttling between Arizona State's football and basketball programs," writes Chris Foster in the Los Angeles Times.
  
  But it was last year's Arizona State–UCLA game that tilted things in football's favor for the 6–foot–8 Osweiler, Foster reports.
  
  And Bruins fans may be kicking themselves for that this weekend.
  
  This series leaned to UCLA from the first time the schools played in 1976 until the early 1990s, then ASU dominated things in that decade.
  
  Then it appeared that UCLA was taking control of the series again — but Arizona State has enjoyed a slight edge since 2004, including a 3–1 advantage in the last four years.
  
  About the only thing in the overall historical record that favors UCLA is the fact that the game is being played in Los Angeles. The Bruins are 9–5–1 against the Sun Devils there, but I don't think that will help. I'll take Arizona State.


• #23 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Cincinnati lost its first four games at Pitt but won the last time the teams played there in 2009.
  
  Cincy returns as the #23 team in the nation, thanks mostly to its 34th–ranked offense. The teams are about even on defense so the difference may well be Pitt's rather lackluster offense.
  
  I'll go with Cincinnati.


• Louisville at #24 West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East Network: Louisville hasn't beaten West Virginia on the road since 1990.
  
  And the odds don't favor the Cardinals this time, either.
  
  Louisville does have the 12th–best defense in the nation, but West Virginia't too shabby (#25). Louisville's defense should be an even match for West Virginia's 13th–ranked offense, but Louisville's offense (103rd in the nation) ought to be overwhelmed.
  
  So I'll go with West Virginia by 10 points.

Last week: 13–5

Season: 147–33