There Were Upsets A-Plenty Last Week; What Does This Week Hold?

---

---

I got both of my upset specials last week, but I could hardly miss. There were upsets galore in the Top 25, starting with the two games played on Friday night — both defending national champion Clemson and Washington State bit the dust, and there were even more upsets the following day.

As you would expect, that led to a considerable shakeup in the rankings. Alabama remained on top, of course, but everything was shuffled after that. Yes, sir, there was a major makeover in the rankings this week, and it is quite possible we will see even more of a shakeup this week.

It might be a good week for a team to have off — and, as it turns out, six of the Top 25 teams are idle this week — including a couple of teams that fell victim to upsets last week.

Idle: #3 Georgia, #6 Ohio State, #7 Clemson, #12 Washington, #16 North Carolina State, #22 Stanford

Thursday

• #25 Memphis at Houston, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I advise the student newspaper at one of the local community colleges. A fellow who advises with me is a native of Memphis, and he's proud of the Tigers' performance in football so far this year.
  
  Remarkably, Memphis comes into this game a 2½–point underdog, but that's OK. I'll go with Memphis as an upset special.

Saturday

• Tennessee at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Tennessee has lost 10 in a row to Alabama and hasn't won at Tuscaloosa since 2003.
  
  The oddsmakers don't think the Vols are likely to win this one, either. They have made Tennessee a 36–point underdog.
  
  Yep. I pick Alabama.
• #19 Michigan at #2 Penn State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This has to be the marquee matchup of the week.
  
  Common sense tells you that the winner of the Big Ten is likely to end up in the national championship playoff in January — unless that champion has two losses. The Wolverines already have one loss (to Michigan State) with confrontations with Wisconsin and Ohio State still on the schedule. Penn State is undefeated, but the Nittany Lions must face Michigan State and Ohio State in the weeks immediately after their game with the Wolverines.
  
  Clearly, neither team can afford to lose this one — but just as clearly someone will.
  
  Penn State is favored by 10, but I'm thinking that Michigan will win this one in an upset special.
• Kansas at #4 TCU, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Horned Frogs are favored by 37½ points in this game.
  
  And it shouldn't be a surprise when TCU wins this game handily.
• Maryland at #5 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: This is only the third time these schools have faced each other. Wisconsin won the first two meetings by impressive margins.
  
  The oddsmakers think the same thing will happen this time. They have made Wisconsin a 24½–point favorite. Sounds right. I pick Wisconsin.
• Syracuse at #8 Miami (Fla.), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Miami has won 13 of 15 meetings with Syracuse since 1990, and the oddsmakers expect Miami to win again.
  
  Now, Syracuse did defeat the defending national champion Clemson Tigers last week, but I just don't think the Orange can beat two Top 10 teams in a row. My choice is Miami.
• #9 Oklahoma at Kansas State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Since Kansas State beat Oklahoma 35–7 in the 2003 Big 12 championship game, the Sooners have beaten Kansas State in eight of 10 meetings.
  
  They're favored to win this time by two touchdowns. OK. I take Oklahoma.
• #10 Oklahoma State at Texas, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Until fairly recently Texas dominated this series.
  
  But the Cowboys have won five of the last seven meetings, and they have won four in a row in Austin.
  
  Oklahoma State is favored to win this one, too — by 6½ points. I think that is being generous. I expect Oklahoma State to win by a wider margin.
• #11 Southern Cal at #13 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: There are many rivalries in college football, but only a handful stand as the elite rivalries, the ones that define what a Saturday in the autumn months is all about.
  
  The Southern Cal–Notre Dame rivalry is one of those rivalries — with roots in the Knute Rockne era.
  
  Historically the home field favors the home team. Southern Cal was at home last year and beat Notre Dame by nearly three touchdowns. But Notre Dame has won the last two at South Bend and is favored to win again, this time by 3½ points. I hope that means it will be a good game.
  
  I expect Notre Dame to win.
• North Carolina at #14 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: I expect this to be a good game.
  
  Virginia Tech has roughly a 2–to–1 advantage in the all–time series, but they're knotted at 4–4 in games played at Virginia Tech.
  
  The oddsmakers don't think it will be so good. They pick Tech by 21 points. And I have to admit that, even though their all–time record in Blacksburg isn't bad, I don't think the Tar Heels have the horses to stay with Tech for 60 minutes.
  
  My pick is Virginia Tech.
• Colorado at #15 Washington State, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The pattern of the last six games in this series has been that the teams alternate as the winner.
  
  Colorado won last season's meeting so that should mean that Washington State will win this time, right? The oddsmakers think so, too. They have established Washington State as a 10–point favorite.
  
  I also think Washington State will win.
• #16 South Florida at Tulane, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools have never faced each other before, but I have the feeling it could be a bit one–sided.
  
  So do the oddsmakers. They have made South Florida an 11½–point favorite. Good enough for me. I take South Florida.
• Indiana at #18 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Until last year, Indiana had lost 11 of the last 12 meetings with Michigan State. But the Hoosiers won, 24–21.
  
  That game, though, was played at home. This game will be played in East Lansing, where Indiana hasn't won since Nov. 10, 2001.
  
  The oddsmakers don't think the Hoosiers will win this time, either. The Spartans are favored by 6½ points. While it is tempting to pick the Hoosiers to beat the Spartans for the second straight time, which they haven't done since the late '60s, my choice is Michigan State.
• #20 Central Florida at Navy, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools.
  
  Central Florida is favored by a touchdown, but Navy was in the Top 25 before losing to Memphis last week.
  
  I like Navy as an upset special.
• #21 Auburn at Arkansas, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Auburn is favored by 15½ points.
  
  As much as I would like to see the Razorbacks turn things around, they won't do it this week. My pick is Auburn.
• #23 West Virginia at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central): These teams have met five times since becoming conference rivals, and each time they have played, the home team has been the winner.
  
  But winless Baylor really doesn't seem likely to beat West Virginia — unless the Mountaineers get caught looking ahead to Oklahoma State next week. West Virginia is favored by 9 points. I'll take West Virginia.
• #24 LSU at Ole Miss, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: LSU has the upper hand in the all–time series, and the Tigers are favored to win this one by 6½ points.
  
  But the Rebels have beaten the Tigers three of the last four times LSU has visited Ole Miss.
  
  I think it could be close — maybe even closer than the spread — but I think LSU will prevail.

Last week: 18–3

Overall: 116–26

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 2–0

Overall upset specials: 4–12

Separating the Pretenders From the Contenders

---

---

It may seem early in the season for college football to be drawing the dividing line between its pretenders and contenders, but that is how it looked last week with several teams falling to what seemed like upsets on the surface but may really have been symptoms that things are not what they may have appeared to be.

UCLA, for example, lost to Memphis, which was pretty highly regarded when the season started but still belongs to a lower–echelon conference, one that certainly shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath with the Pac–12. Memphis had to prove itself — and it did.

Similarly San Diego State upset another ranked team from the Pac–12, slipping past Stanford by a single point. And Southern Cal needed two overtimes to subdue Texas, the same team that lost to Maryland two weeks earlier.

Suddenly the Pac–12 isn't looking so strong.

But all wins by teams from lower–tier conferences over teams from the power conferences are not treated equally. The pollsters didn't reward Memphis with a spot in the rankings — unlike San Diego State.

LSU lost to Mississippi State. The Tigers have dominated the series over the years — but they have been particularly dominant in Starkville, where they have won nearly 75% of the time — and had not lost since 1999. But the Bulldogs partied like it was 1999, winning by 30 points.

There were surprises among the unranked as well. I'm sure no one expected Northern Illinois to prevail at Nebraska. Nevertheless ...

Idle: #9 Wisconsin

Thursday

• Temple at #21 South Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: South Florida's last loss was at Temple on Oct. 21, 2016.
  
  The Bulls have won eight in a row since then (it probably would have been nine in a row if Hurricane Irma hadn't postponed South Florida's game with UConn), but my guess is that everyone on that squad wants to even the score — as well as the all–time series (which Temple leads 2–1).
  
  I pick South Florida.

Friday

• #23 Utah at Arizona, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Utah had lost four straight to Arizona before winning their Pac–12 matchup last year.
  
  This will be the teams' 43rd meeting, and Arizona holds a narrow edge at home against Utah. In fact, Utah has won at Arizona only once in more than 20 years.
  
  I think the tide is turning in this series. My pick is Utah.

Saturday

• #1 Alabama at Vanderbilt, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Until Vanderbilt knocked off Kansas State last week, this game got little, if any, attention.
  
  After all, Alabama hasn't lost to Vanderbilt since 1984 — and hasn't lost at Vanderbilt since 1969.
  
  There really isn't a reason to expect anything different this time. I pick Alabama to win.
• Boston College at #2 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: After facing down ranked teams the last couple of weeks, I imagine that Clemson will enjoy this one. This series dates back to the 1940 Cotton Bowl, but it has only been an annual meeting since the teams became conference rivals in 2005.
  
  Since then Clemson has won two–thirds of its meetings with Boston College and has only lost at home twice in that stretch — both times by a field goal.
  
  The choice is Clemson.
• #3 Oklahoma at Baylor, 5:30 p.m. (Central): The Sooners won by 10 the last time they visited Waco, but the Bears won the previous two meetings.
  
  That's a pretty big deal, considering that Baylor had never beaten Oklahoma until 2011.
  
  The previous order seems to be in the process of being restored. I think Oklahoma will win this one.
• #4 Penn State at Iowa, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Last week Iowa hammered the school where I got my master's, North Texas. This week the Hawkeyes face the fourth–ranked team in the land.
  
  In the words of Dire Straits, sometimes you're the windshield. Sometimes you're the bug.
  
  I pick Penn State.
• #5 Southern Cal at California, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Southern Cal has beaten California 13 straight times and has won more than 72% of the games in what is now a 97–game series.
  
  I expect nothing to change this week. The pick is Southern Cal.
• #16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This has always been a competitive series.
  
  OSU seized control by winning five of the last six meetings, and it will be tough for TCU to narrow the gap this weekend. Stillwater is a tough place for visiting teams.
  
  Oklahoma State is favored by 11½ points, and that sounds about right to me.
  
  My pick is Oklahoma State.
• #7 Washington at Colorado, 9 p.m. (Central): After eight straight losing seasons, not much was expected from Colorado last year. But the Buffaloes went 10–2 before losing the Pac–12 championship game to Washington.
  
  Can Colorado win the rematch? Colorado hasn't beaten Washington since the 1996 Holiday Bowl and hasn't beaten Washington at home since 1990. And Washington is favored by 10 points.
  
  But something tells me it isn't quite as certain as it may seem. I will take Colorado in an upset special.
• #8 Michigan at Purdue, 3 p.m. (Central): Talk about your one–sided series.
  
  These teams have played 57 times, and Michigan has won 43. In fact, Purdue has beaten Michigan only five times since 1980.
  
  But they're playing at Purdue, which may be the saving grace for the Boilermakers. They've been more successful there than Ann Arbor, where Purdue has won only once since 1966.
  
  Well, I suppose it might be close for awhile. But the oddsmakers make Michigan a 10–point favorite. I agree. Michigan will win.
• Nevada–Las Vegas at #10 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central): What can I say
  
  Ohio State is favored by nearly 40 points. No wonder it isn't being televised.
  
  My choice is Ohio State.
• #17 Mississippi State at #11 Georgia, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I expect this one to be an interesting game.
  
  I probably wouldn't have said that when the season began, but Mississippi State's victory over LSU last week opened my eyes.
  
  Apparently it opened the oddsmakers' eyes, too. They made Georgia a 4½–point favorite at home.
  
  Make Mississippi State an upset special.
• North Carolina State at #12 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Sometimes North Carolina State can pull off the upset, but Florida State has won about 70% of their meetings over the years, and I am just not inclined to pick North Carolina State in this one.
  
  The Wolfpack has won only twice at Florida State in the last 50 years.
  
  The pick is Florida State.
• Old Dominion at #13 Virginia Tech, 1 p.m. (Central) on ACCNE: The oddsmakers have made Tech a 26½–point favorite at home. Good enough for me.
  
  I pick Virginia Tech.
• Toledo at #14 Miami (Fla.), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACCNE: These teams have played only once before — in November of 1987.
  
  Miami went undefeated that season, and Toledo was 3–7–1, but Toledo only lost by 10 points in a game that was played at Miami. Only three schools — Florida State on the road, South Carolina and Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl — came closer to beating the Hurricanes that year.
  
  Miami is favored to win by nearly two touchdowns. And even though Toledo has been better in recent years, I expect Miami to win.
• #15 Auburn at Missouri, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have met twice before, but this will be the first time they have played in a month other than December.
  
  Missouri is a relative newcomer to the SEC and doesn't compete in Auburn's division. This will be the first time they have met in the regular season.
  
  But they faced each other in the 2013 SEC Championship in Atlanta, and Auburn won by 59–42. Forty years earlier, Missouri won the first meeting in the Sun Bowl, 34–17.
  
  Auburn is favored by nearly three touchdowns. I take Auburn.
• Nevada at #18 Washington State, 5 p.m. (Central): These schools have met three teams before, each time at Washington State.
  
  Washington State won the first two, but Nevada claimed their most recent meeting — on Sept. 5, 2014.
  
  Will lightning strike twice? I don't think so. Washington State is my choice.
• Kent at #19 Louisville, 11 a.m. (Central) on ACCNE: These schools were regular rivals in the '60s, but they haven't met since 1973.
  
  Kent went 3–9 last year. I expect Louisville to romp.
• #20 Florida at Kentucky, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: You could probably expect a pretty good game from these two if the sport was basketball.
  
  But in football the Gators have thoroughly dominated the series. They lead it 50–17 and haven't lost at Kentucky since 1986.
  
  I expect the dominance to continue. The pick is Florida.
• #22 San Diego State at Air Force, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: History leans heavily toward San Diego State in this series. The Aztecs have won the last six meetings (frequently by wide margins) and haven't lost at Air Force since 2009.
  
  But the oddsmakers have made San Diego State a mere 3½–point favorite. Could the Aztecs be suffering from something of a hangover following the win over Stanford?
  
  I will take Air Force in an upset special.
• #24 Oregon at Arizona State, 9 p.m. (Central): Arizona State once dominated this series, but Oregon has won 10 in a row to take the lead in the series, 19–16.
  
  The oddsmakers think Oregon will make it 11 in a row, having established the Ducks as 15½–point favorites.
  
  I agree. I pick Oregon.
• Syracuse at #25 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools have met three times before.
  
  The first two times were bowl games — the 1965 Sugar Bowl and the 1989 Hall of Fame Bowl. Two years ago, they finally faced other in a non–bowl setting, and LSU won on the road.
  
  Now Syracuse has a chance to even the score and the series. But the oddsmakers don't think Syracuse has much of a chance to win in Death Valley. They made LSU a 23½–point favorite.
  
  I expect LSU to win.

Last week: 16–5

Overall: 51–10

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 0–1

Overall upset specials: 1–5

How NOT to Bounce Back From a Shocking Loss

---

---

It was — beyond any doubt — the upset of the young college football season.

There may well be other upsets in the weeks ahead. As a matter of fact, experience tells me there will be other upsets. It's the nature of the beast.

But none will tear at my heart the way the upset in my one–time hometown of Little Rock did last Saturday night.

The beginning of any sports season brings with it fresh optimism for the future. That optimism is eventually dashed for most teams — earlier for some than for others — and, having been a fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks most of my life, as well as a graduate of the school, I long ago grew accustomed to the idea that, no matter how good the Razorbacks were, someone would knock them off.

(They have only had one unblemished season in my lifetime — but I was far too young to appreciate it.)

Usually, that someone was Texas. There were a couple of years in there in which Texas was the only team to beat the Razorbacks, but, mostly, the Texas loss was merely one of several. It wasn't always the first blemish. It was just the one you could always count on.

But sometimes the first loss came at the hands of a completely unexpected nemesis. I remember one particularly brutal season in which The Citadel, of all schools, upset the Razorbacks in the season opener — and cost the head coach his job.

None of those surprises could match Arkansas' overtime loss to Louisiana–Monroe last Saturday, though, and the voters in the Associated Press poll seem to agree with me. After all, Arkansas fell from #8 completely out of the poll.

But the Razorbacks will remain in the Top 25 conversation for at least another week. Top–ranked Alabama is in town today, and my guess is it won't be pretty.

On the other hand ...

This reminds me of my senior year at Arkansas. In early October, the Razorbacks lost to TCU for the first time in my life. A couple of weeks later, top–ranked Texas came to Fayetteville.

The general consensus was that Texas would win easily. My girlfriend and I had tickets to the game, but we considered — briefly — not going. In the end, though, we couldn't stay away. It was the only time the Arkansas–Texas game would be played in Fayetteville during our college careers, and we decided to go. If the game was out of hand by halftime, we agreed, we would leave.

As it turned out, the Razorbacks won, 42–11.

That's what it's always been like — at least, as far back as I can remember. Arkansas wins when it is supposed to lose and loses when it is supposed to win.

I'm not saying that is what will happen today. I'm just saying it has happened before — and I know because I was there.

I'll also say that playing the top–ranked team in the land the week after a shocking loss to an inferior foe is not the way to revive a team — especially one that gave up an average of 436 yards per game to the likes of Jacksonville State and ULM.

Makes me dread seeing what Alabama QB A.J. McCarron, currently the third–best passer in the country, is going to do to the Arkansas secondary.

This may be a brutal experience for Arkansas fans.

Idle: #5 Oklahoma

Today

• #1 Alabama at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: When I was in school at the University of Arkansas, the Razorbacks played the Alabama Crimson Tide for what was only the second time — ever.
  
  That really surprised me when I first heard it. The schools seemed like natural regional rivals. They just never scheduled each other.
  
  They've been playing each other regularly for the last 20 years, though, ever since Arkansas joined the Southeastern Conference. And Arkansas has performed pretty well, at times, but Alabama has owned the series since 2007.
  
  Most folks probably expect Alabama to extend that streak, given that Arkansas lost last week to a team it should have hammered — and, in the process, apparently lost its quarterback.
  
  ESPN has been reporting that QB Tyler Wilson, who suffered a head injury in last week's loss, will not play against Alabama. Former coach Bobby Petrino seems to have kept a stable of talented quarterbacks on his roster so there are some good backups available — but they lack the experience to remain cool in the face of Alabama's tenacious defense.
  
  And, although I really would love to see the Razorbacks win, I'm afraid that it just isn't in the cards this year. I pick Alabama.
• #2 USC at #21 Stanford, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These schools first played each other 90 years ago — when Warren Harding was president.
  
  USC won seven of the first 10 meetings and has dominated the series overall, but Stanford has won four of the last five. Of course, that was accomplished with Andrew Luck in the lineup. Without him, I have to go with USC.
• Idaho at #3 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These schools have met once before, in Baton Rouge in 1998, and LSU won, 53–20.
  
  Today's game is in Baton Rouge as well, but expectations are exceedingly low for Idaho.
  
  Actually, I don't think it would matter if the game was being played in Idaho — or if they had never faced each other before. I expect LSU to win by a wide margin.
• Tennessee Tech at #4 Oregon, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: Another first–time matchup that shouldn't be close.
  
  Oregon should have no trouble winning this one.
• Wake Forest at #5 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools became conference rivals 20 years ago, but they were already familiar with each other, having met 10 times as nonconference opponents.
  
  In all, they have played 30 times, and Florida State has dominated the series about as thoroughly as is possible. The Seminoles are 23–6–1 in the series — but, ironically, Wake Forest has won two of the last three games played at FSU.
  
  Can Wake Forest make it three of the last four? Well, I guess anything is possible — but not necessarily probable. I expect Florida State to win handily.
• Florida Atlantic at #7 Georgia, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on CSS: These schools are meeting for the first time.
  
  And I refer you to the Tennessee Tech–Oregon game. Using the same logic, I pick Georgia.
  
• Alabama–Birmingham at #8 South Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSS: South Carolina dodged a bullet in the opener against Vanderbilt.
  
  But UAB hasn't had a winning season since 2004. I expect South Carolina to trounce UAB tonight.



• James Madison at #9 West Virginia, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on ROOT: I'm not sure if West Virginia is a Top 10 team.
  
  But I cannot imagine the Mountaineers losing this game. I pick West Virginia.



• #20 Notre Dame at #10 Michigan State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams first met just before the turn of the century — including that day back in 1899, they have played 69 games in all.
  
  Folks with long memories will tell you the teams fought to a 10–10 tie when they were the top two teams in the country in 1966. Notre Dame has been the winner more frequently, regardless of the venue, but the Irish have lost the last two times they have visited Michigan State.
  
  And my instincts tell me they will lose for the third straight time. It may be a relatively close score, at least when compared to some of the other matchups in the Top 25 this week, but when that final gun sounds, I expect Michigan State to be the winner.



• Furman at #11 Clemson, 2 p.m. (Central) on RSN: Another first–time matchup, and I just can't see Furman staying with Clemson long enough to make it interesting.
  
  I expect Clemson to win easily.



• California at #12 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: It's been 40 years since these schools last met on the football field.
  
  It's been even longer (more than 90 years) since California beat Ohio State. Since that lone victory for the Bears over the Buckeyes, Ohio State has won five straight.
  
  Make that six for Ohio State.



• #13 Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is actually a more extensive series than you might think.
  
  These schools have faced each other 11 times since 1993, and Tech has won seven of them, including the last three in a row.
  
  Times have changed. The teams were competing in the same conference in all their previous meetings but no more so they haven't played in nearly a decade.
  
  But this year they are renewing their series as a nonconference game for both schools. I don't expect a change in the outcome, though. I pick Virginia Tech.



• #14 Texas at Ole Miss, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have played six times — but this will be their first encounter since 1966.
  
  Texas won all but one of those previous games.
  
  It would be nice to think that this game will be a throwback to the 1960s, when both schools were forces in football. But, with only eight wins in their last 26 games, the Rebels face quite a challenge against the Longhorns.
  
  And I don't think they're up to it. I pick Texas.



• North Texas at #15 Kansas State: This is an intriguing match for me — but not because I think it will be close. I don't.
  
  But it intrigues me because I hold degrees from Arkansas and North Texas. Arkansas beat Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl last January, and now KSU is hosting North Texas.
  
  It will be the second time in the last four games that one of my alma maters has faced K–State. I fully expected Arkansas to win the Cotton Bowl, and, likewise, I fully expect North Texas to lose today.
  
  Obviously, my pick is Kansas State.



• #16 TCU at Kansas: When I was growing up in Arkansas, a game between TCU and Kansas would have been regarded as the Toilet Bowl of college football.
  
  The TCU football program is more highly regarded today, and some of the teams the Frogs will be facing in their new conference will be first–time foes. But TCU and Kansas have played each other 28 times in the past.
  
  It's safe to say they know each other — or, at least, they know a lot about each other.
  
  They haven't faced each other in 15 years, and TCU hasn't beaten Kansas since 1994.
  
  I've found that history is frequently a useful guide in anticipating the outcomes of future events — when it is applied to some human endeavors — but such history in sports is practically ancient history and has little, if any, bearing on what will happen.
  
  Having said that, though, I expect TCU to win.



• Massachusetts at #17 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I would expect this to be a much more competitive matchup if it was in basketball.
  
  But in football — in the Big House of Ann Arbor — I expect Michigan to win by a substantial margin.



• #18 Florida at #23 Tennessee, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Before the season began, I never would have predicted that both of these schools would be ranked when they played each other in mid–September.
  
  Nevertheless ...
  
  Each team holds a slight advantage at home. If there is a genuine historical edge for either team, it may be the fact that Florida has won seven consecutive games against Tennessee.
  
  The Volunteers have only had three winning seasons since the last time they beat the Gators. Florida, meanwhile, won two national championships and a Heisman Trophy — and the Gators haven't been through a season in which they lost more games than they won since 1979.
  
  Having said that, I suppose it is to be assumed that I pick Florida to win this game — which, in fact, I do — but I think it will be very entertaining, and I expect the score to be close.



• North Carolina at #19 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: History says this game should be entertaining.
  
  Louisville is 1–1 at home (Carolina is 2–2). Half of the games in the series have been decided by a touchdown or less; of course, there have also been blowouts (such as the time in 2005 when Louisville won, 69–14, or the game the year before that Louisville won, 34–0).
  
  As Forrest Gump might say, you never know what you're going to get. Still, I will go with the favorite — Louisville.



• Houston at #22 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: This will only be the seventh time these schools have met, but there is a definite pattern. The home team is 2–1, which means that history favors the Bruins.
  
  So, too, I suppose, does common sense. UCLA, after all, is coming off what appears to be a major victory over Nebraska, and is ranked in the Top 25. That's pretty heady stuff for a program that has won only three bowl games in the last 14 years.
  
  But I'm inclined to think UCLA will be up to the challenge and will defeat Houston.



• South Carolina State at #24 Arizona, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: It's hard to imagine South Carolina State traveling across the country to Arizona — and emerging with a win.
  
  Of course, as last Saturday's game in Little Rock demonstrated, anything really can happen. But I don't think anything like that will happen at Arizona tonight. I pick Arizona to win by a wide margin.



• #25 Brigham Young at Utah, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the 88th edition of this series, and Utah has dominated it — although the Utes have been far more successful at home (34–16–3), where this year's game will be played.
  
  That should work in the Utes' favor, right?
  
  Actually, I think it will.
  
  Look, it's still early in the season, and, let's face it, many teams are ranked simply because they were successful in the past. But, aside from a handful of early tests, most teams remain unknown quantities.
  
  So the fact that BYU is ranked and Utah is not does not mean much to me.
  
  I predict a very close game, and I pick Utah to win it.

Last week: 18–6

Season: 40–6

BCS Chaos

---

---

I have made no secret of my distaste for the so–called Bowl Championship Series — or BCS — that is supposed to match the two best college football teams in a national championship game at season's end, even though neither team must earn its spot in a playoff system.

Unless one or both must play in a conference championship game.

But no champions from other conferences must be conquered to reach the national title game. Only the pollsters and computers must be persuaded of the teams' worthiness — and they need not be familiar with the teams they choose.

In fact, there probably are coaches who vote in their poll or sports writers who vote in their poll who have had little, if any, exposure to the teams that ultimately are anointed to play for all the marbles.

That is my greatest gripe about the BCS system, I suppose.

Let's assume, if only for a minute, that LSU wins the SEC championship game against Georgia. A case can be made that the participants in that game earned their berths on the field — and, since the championship game will be played on a day when there will be very few other college football games, it is logical to assume that most, if not all, of the coaches who participate in their poll and the sports writers who participate in their poll will see the game.

But week in and week out, how many coaches do you suppose take time out from their own game preparation responsibilities to familiarize themselves with three or four dozen college teams by watching tape of and/or reading articles about them?

For that matter, how many sports writers take time from their coverage of local or regional programs to view the tapes and read the articles relating to those same three or four dozen college teams from around the country?

Probably few in either instance.

But, like lemmings allegedly committing mass suicide when they migrate, they follow the group. What may have begun as the perception of a few becomes a self–fulfilling prophecy.

Unless fate intervenes.

Fate intervened this weekend.

LSU, the top–ranked team in the nation, almost surely will remain where it was when the weekend began.

But #2 Oklahoma State as certainly will drop after its double–overtime loss to Iowa State on Friday night — a development that was doubly shocking. The Cowboys were expected to whip the Cyclones, even before the news reached the team that the OSU women's basketball coach and one of his assistants were killed in an airplane crash in central Arkansas.

News of the tragedy was expected to serve as even more motivation for the Cowboys — but it didn't.

They were stunned, I guess — or maybe they were simply lethargic. Their big showdown with Oklahoma is two weeks away — and the Cowboys have next week off. How could 10–0 Oklahoma State, with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State, get excited about playing 5–4 Iowa State?

Whatever it was, the Cowboys lost the game.

Folks were still absorbing that news when a couple of other bombshells were dropped on the Top 10.

First, the other Oklahoma school went down in spectacular fashion. The once–beaten Sooners faced Baylor University, a team that had never beaten Oklahoma in 19 previous attempts. In fact, it had been more than a decade since Baylor even came within two touchdowns of OU.

But, on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, the Bears beat the fifth–ranked Sooners — pretty convincingly, too.

And, as that equally shocking development was playing out in the heart of Texas, there was even more.

Fourth–ranked Oregon was losing its second game of the season. The Ducks' first defeat was way back at the beginning of the season in a Labor Day weekend clash with LSU. Oregon had been craving a rematch in the national championship game, but the loss to 18th–ranked Southern California undoubtedly put an end to any such hopes.

It can be argued, for that matter, that Oklahoma is also out of the national championship conversation. And, although they have only one loss, that one loss — to a six–win team — is probably too devastating for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to overcome.

Well, I've been saying it would take a state of utter chaos to build momentum for the implementation of a playoff system — and we may be witnessing the start of such a state.

But I want it to go beyond what has happened this weekend.

On Friday, my alma mater, the University of Arkansas (ranked sixth when the weekend began and certain to move up in the rankings later today following a 44–17 victory over Mississippi State yesterday) will travel to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Baton Rouge can be a scary place for most football teams — but not necessarily for Arkansas.

Sure, the Razorbacks are 1–4 in Baton Rouge since 2001, but all but one of those games were decided by three points or less. And the Razorbacks have won three of their last four games against the Tigers.

Another victory is not out of the question — and it could propel the Razorbacks into the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Especially if Auburn upends currently second–ranked Alabama in Saturday's Iron Bowl. If you're scoffing at that notion, let me remind you that Alabama–Auburn is a rivalry of long standing — and rivalries like that operate in spheres of their own.

There are other things that could happen in other games to change the dynamics of the BCS and make more college football fans think about the system that currently chooses the national champion and how it compares to a legitimate playoff system.

Undoubtedly, those things will be evident later today when the latest polls come out and then tonight when the latest BCS standings are released.

In the end, LSU may well be the only unbeaten team standing and may be the unquestionable choice to be national champion.

But I'm still pulling for chaos, and if what happened on Friday and Saturday is the beginning of revolutionary chaos, then all I can say is ...

Let the revolution begin.

But, for now, I am pleased.

Who Should Be #1 Now?

A couple of weeks ago, I asked this question — after Southern Cal and Florida lost to unranked opponents and eighth-ranked Alabama beat third-ranked Georgia.

Circumstances compel me to ask it again.

• The top-ranked team, Oklahoma, lost to the fifth-ranked team, Texas, by 10 points Saturday. (Barry Tramel conceded, in The Oklahoman, that "the better team won.")
  
  Texas vaulted into the top spot in the polls.
  
  Is that where the Longhorns belong?
  
  Well ...


• Second-ranked Alabama was idle, but third-ranked Missouri lost to 17th-ranked Oklahoma State. David Ubben of the Columbia Missourian says the loss "ended any hope" that Missouri would play for the national title.
  
  Meanwhile, the still unbeaten OSU Cowboys prepare to take on Baylor next week, followed by a showdown with Texas on Oct. 25.
  
  Actually, we should learn a lot about Texas in the next three weeks. The 'Horns are at home against Missouri next Saturday and Oklahoma State on Oct. 25, then they travel to Texas Tech for a Big XII South game on Nov. 1.


• Eleventh-ranked Florida, after being knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten by Ole Miss two weeks ago, absolutely hammered #4 LSU, 51-21. The Gators have two weeks to savor their victory over the defending national champions before returning to action against Kentucky on Oct. 25.


• Seventh-ranked Texas Tech managed to remain unbeaten, but the Red Raiders struggled against unranked Nebraska only to pull off a 37-31 win in overtime.


• And there were some other upsets in college football Saturday, including previously unbeaten #13 Vanderbilt's loss to Mississippi State, 17-14, and unranked Arkansas' victory over #20 Auburn on the road, 25-22.

Even though Alabama was idle yesterday, I still think (as I did two weeks ago) that the Crimson Tide deserve to be ranked #1. I think they might run the table the rest of the way — and that would include victories over Auburn and LSU.

But in the latest AP poll, the Longhorns rode their 45-35 win over the Sooners to the top ranking in the land, while OU fell to #4.

The Tide still isn't getting the recognition I believe it deserves. Alabama remained at #2 in the polls.

Personally, I would be shocked if Alabama doesn't win its next three games (vs. Ole Miss, at Tennessee and vs. Arkansas State) before traveling to Baton Rouge, La., to take on LSU on Nov. 8.