The Value of a Single Catch

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I have often wondered how different professional football would have been if the San Francisco 49ers had not won the NFC championship on this day 30 years ago.

I've been following sports since I was a child, and if there is one thing I have learned, it is that there really is such a thing as destiny — at least when it comes to sports teams.

Some franchises never overcome their initial reputations as losers, and some allow those reputations to continue to hinder their progress long after they have risen above those reputations.

Sometimes franchises that have been struggling surge to the top from nowhere, get close to grabbing the brass ring but come up short and then fall back into relative obscurity — after which you might hear from them again in another 10 or 15 years.

But sometimes those franchises that surge to the top break on through to the other side and win it all — and a dynasty is born.

I believe that's what happened with the San Francisco 49ers 30 years ago today.

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The 49ers weren't strangers to the playoffs, but they hadn't been participants in the postseason for nearly a decade.

Shoot, it had been five years since they had had a winning season.

In their memorable showdown with the Dallas Cowboys on that Sunday afternoon, the 49ers introduced the West Coast Offense to football fans, many of whom were seeing it for the first time. If it had failed, Joe Montana might never have enjoyed the career that he did — and the West Coast Offense might not have risen to the prominence it did.

At least, at that time.

It's safe to assume that, if Dallas had won the game, something else would have been the popular offense — and some other quarterback would have emerged as the NFL's top signal–caller — of the 1980s.

Failure on this day would have meant that the Cowboys would return to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in seven years. Success for the 49ers, however, brought the energy and excitement of a new team in the Super Bowl — and that is what the 49ers were in January 1982, first–timers in the Super Bowl (as were their opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals).

But it might never have happened if Montana hadn't completed a six–yard pass to Dwight Clark in the end zone, an iconic moment that was captured in photographs that appeared in newspapers across the country the next day.

It isn't hard for me to imagine Bill Walsh and his coaching staff abandoning the West Coast Offense if it failed to produce a conference championship on this day in 1982.

Walsh was kind of like football's version of Franklin D. Roosevelt. From the moment he became the 49ers' coach, his mission was to revive a foundering franchise, just as it was Roosevelt's mission to revive the nation. FDR's presidency in the 1930s was very experimental; if something didn't have the desired effect, it would be scrapped and something else would replace it.

If the 49ers had failed to win the NFC championship on this day 30 years ago, Walsh and his staff certainly would have re–evaluated their roster — and they might well have concluded that their personnel was better suited for a different strategy.

That doesn't mean that the West Coast Offense would have died three decades ago today, never to be seen on an NFL field again.

No, I'm sure someone would have resurrected it — and probably thrived with it — if it had gone unused for years following a 49ers defeat 30 years ago today because defensive coordinators would have spent little, if any, time planning for it.

But Montana completed that pass to Clark — and the 49ers went on to win four of the next nine Super Bowls.

And the West Coast Offense set the pace in professional football for the next two decades.

The Renewal of a Passionate Rivalry

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Tomorrow afternoon, the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers will face each other in Chicago with the NFC championship on the line.

Now, there are many rivalries in the NFL. None are as old as the Bears and the Packers, who have been playing each other twice a year for the last 90 years. Given their history, you might think they had faced each other in the playoffs several times, but this will be only the second time they have met in the postseason.

To remember that other playoff game, you would have to be old enough to remember Pearl Harbor.

I was talking with my father on Thursday, and I observed that it was the 50th anniversary of John F. Kennedy's inaugural address, in which Kennedy uttered his famous line, "Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country."

We talked a little about famous presidential speeches, and Dad mentioned that he remembered listening to FDR's "day of infamy" speech the day after the attack on Pearl Harbor. That speech was given the Monday before Green Bay and Chicago last met in the postseason.

In those days, as I wrote last month, NFL championships were played between the teams who won their respective divisions (or conferences, as they were called for a time).

Usually, there were no other playoffs — unless there was a tie atop one or both of the divisions. Then there would be a playoff game between the teams who tied for a division title (even if one of the teams had swept the regular–season series between the two), and the winner would advance to the championship game.

That was how Green Bay and Chicago, always members of the same conference/division, wound up playing each other following the conclusion of the 1941 season. Both teams went 10–1, splitting their regular–season series, so they met on Dec. 14, 1941 at Chicago's Wrigley Field to break the tie.

At the time, there was no such thing as a "wild card" in the playoffs. That was a concept that wasn't really introduced until nearly 30 years later.

Even so, wild cards have been a part of the postseason in pro football for the last 40 years — ever since the merger of the AFL and NFL. In some years, the playoff structure has allowed two wild card teams in each conference.

Both Green Bay and Chicago have been in the playoffs as divisional champions and wild cards. But in all those years, this is only the second time that both teams have qualified for the playoffs in the same season.

That other time was nine years ago, when the New England Patriots upset the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl. Both the Packers and Bears lost in the divisional round of the playoffs. If both had won, they would have faced each other for the NFC title — 60 years after their last playoff meeting.

But that did not happen.

Even though the teams have not played each other for a championship before, the rivalry is as heated as any you'll find in the NFL. The mere mention of the Packers and the Bears to a true pro football fan ought to conjure up images of Vince Lombardi and George Halas prowling the sidelines, Dick Butkus sacking Bart Starr before the NFL was even keeping track of that particular statistic, Ray Nitschke tackling Gale Sayers, games played in the mud and the snow and the bitter cold.

This isn't your father's football. This is your grandfather's football, played the way it used to be played. Leather helmets, I heard someone say this week, will be optional.

I remember hearing a story from one day in the 1960s when the Bears and Packers faced each other. Halas came to the Packers' locker room door prior to kickoff and was stopped by security. He protested that he had to see Lombardi. It was urgent.

The message was relayed to Lombardi, who came to the door to see what Halas needed to talk to him about.

Halas said, "Vince, I just want to tell you that you'd better have your boys ready to play. Because we're going to kick your ass!"

And Halas turned around and walked back to his locker room.

I don't know what, if anything, was on the line that day — other than pride and bragging rights. In the Bears–Packers rivalry, that's usually enough.

When they started calling the division in which the Packers and Bears compete the "Black and Blue Division," they really knew what they were talking about. It's a rivalry that has always been capable of stirring fierce passions.

Oddly, though, the newspapers in the two cities seem to have been falling all over themselves to be respectful of each other. Even when they're teasing.

Frankly, I'm a little disappointed. I expected more, I guess.

• Mark Konkol of the Chicago Sun–Times tells readers that the Bears' quarterback's father is a "cheesehead" — which is, of course, the nickname that is often used for Packer fans.
  
  "Don't worry," he tells his readers. "It's not what you think." And it isn't.


• Cheryl Jackson reports in the Sun–Times that Chicago watering holes anticipate the kind of business they normally don't enjoy at this time of year.
  
  And it's hard to argue with that. With daytime highs expected to be in the teens and Chicago's legendary fickle, swirling winds on hand as always, you need something to get people to brave the elements — assuming they don't have tickets to the game.


• Rex Huppke and Gerry Smith, using some clever wordplay in the Chicago Tribune, manage to capture some of the animosity — but none of what Hunter Thompson might have called the fear and loathing — that exists between Chicago and Green Bay.
  
  "Chicagoans stand united," write Huppke and Smith, "Packtose intolerant, loathers of cheese in all its forms, sneering as often as possible in the direction of those green and gold neighbors to the north."
  
  It is truly, as they observe, a rivalry like no other. Actually, it's a way of life.
  
  
• Maybe the most critical thing I have seen from journalists in either town in the last week has come from Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press–Gazette, who asserts that the pressure to win now is on the Bears because of their age.
  
  But that's simply a statement of fact. "[L]ooking to the future," he writes, "Chicago Bears General Manager Jerry Angelo needs to draft unusually well starting this year to remain a title contender."
  
  The Packers, on the other hand, are locked and loaded for the next several years, Dougherty says, and I think he is right.

But ...

C'mon, guys! This is football! This is Green Bay–Chicago!

Where's the contempt?

The 12th Man

Some 24 hours ago, I wrote that the best NFL playoff games this weekend would be played yesterday.

I still feel that was true, and that won't change, even if today's games turn out to be classic cliffhangers.

That Pittsburgh–Baltimore game was a real cliffhanger, wasn't it? And, while the Green Bay–Atlanta game didn't turn out to be close, I think it was a real milestone in the relationship between Green Bay Packer fans and Aaron Rodgers.

When his career is over, I believe football historians will look back on the events of Jan. 15, 2011, and say that was when he really began to assume the role of elite NFL quarterback.

As I have mentioned here frequently, I have been a Green Bay Packers fan since I was a child collecting football cards, and Vince Lombardi was coaching the team.

In hindsight, I suppose I wasn't so different from those who came of age as football fans some five years later, when Miami was the king of the hill. Or a few years later, when the Pittsburgh Steelers were dominating. Or the following decade, when the dynasty was in San Francisco.

And I guess that many of today's young NFL fans have been conditioned to think of the New England Patriots as the modern dynasty — even though it has been a few years since they won it all.

There have been lots of popular teams over the years. Usually, they have been led by the greatest quarterbacks of their era.

And frequently — not always but often — those quarterbacks have worn number 12.

As I watched Rodgers pick apart Atlanta last night, I couldn't help thinking of the great players I remember watching who wore that number.

Sure, number 4 was unique, like Brett Favre, but 12 has always signified a certain steadfastness to me. Roger Staubach wore that number. So did Joe Namath and Terry Bradshaw and Bob Griese and Jim Kelly. The Patriots' fans know Tom Brady wears number 12.

That number almost seems magical to a football fan. Twelve, of course, is only one more than the number of players on each side in a football game. Consequently, there is a tendency to speak of one's home fans as the "12th man" in recognition of their efforts to boost their team's morale.

It's a tradition that goes back nearly 90 years, and it originated at Texas A&M. Various NFL teams have used it over the years, but most don't use it anymore. They were discouraged primarily because A&M owns the trademark on the phrase, and they were concerned about litigation.

Ironically, two teams who will meet today — the Chicago Bears and the Seattle Seahawks — were among those who used it in the past and still use it — or a variation — today.

The Seahawks continue to use it. They settled out of court with A&M, and, if next week's NFC championship game is played in Seattle, you will undoubtedly hear references to Seattle's "12th man."

The Bears, on the other hand, stopped referring to their fans as the "12th man." They call their fans the "Fourth Phase." The logic is that the first three phases of football are offense, defense and special teams.

It's kinda the same thing. Anyway, if you hear "Fourth Phase" mentioned this afternoon, that's the background — in a nutshell.

There was a time, I have been told, when the Packers, like several other NFL franchises, used the "12th Man" reference. It was kind of the hot football–related phrase for awhile, sort of like "friendly confines" in baseball.

And I guess that was OK by Packer fans. Since the Lombardi days, it always seemed to Packer fans that number 12 was worn either by backups or starters who never seemed to live up to their hype. Bart Starr wore number 15, then a couple of decades went by before Favre arrived.

They are the only two quarterbacks to lead the Packers to the brink of a Super Bowl. There have been other quarterbacks who came to Green Bay and much was expected from them — guys like Lynn Dickey and Don Majkowski come to mind, but there were others. They all fell short. I guess there was a considerable gap between the potential and the reality.

But that will change next Sunday. There is no such gap with Rodgers.

The Packers will be led this time by an honest–to–god "12th Man" — and he seems to be at the top of his game.

It ought to be fun.

Teams of the Decade

Now that the 2009 conference championships have been determined, the tedious, tiresome, two–week Super Bowl hypefest can begin.

But, as I was watching the Colts and Saints win, it occurred to me that I was watching the final conference champions of the first decade of the 21st century being crowned. There wasn't a lot of suspense as far as Indianapolis was concerned, but the Saints had to go into overtime to finish off the Vikings.

Well, now that we know the identities of the champions, we can discuss the teams of the decade in the NFC and AFC.

First, the AFC ...

• In the last 10 years, one AFC team has played in more Super Bowls than any other — the New England Patriots. In February 2002, the Patriots beat the heavily favored St. Louis Rams, then they beat the Carolina Panthers in February 2004 and the Philadelphia Eagles in February 2005. They lost their fourth Super Bowl appearance of the decade to the New York Giants in February 2008.


• I suppose that makes the Pats the AFC's team of the decade, but, because of yesterday's championship games, there will be two other AFC teams that can claim to have made multiple Super Bowl appearances in this decade — the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts.
  
  The Steelers, of course, beat Arizona last year, and they beat Seattle in February 2006. The Colts beat Chicago in February 2007, and they will be trying for their second Super Bowl title of the decade when they face New Orleans next month.


• Two other AFC teams made one appearance each in the Super Bowl — Baltimore in January 2001 and Oakland in January 2003.

Now, the NFC ...

• In seven of the nine Super Bowls that have been played following regular seasons in the 21st century, the AFC team has been the winner. Only one NFC team, the New York Giants, has been to more than one Super Bowl. The Giants lost to the Baltimore Ravens back in January 2001, then they beat the previously undefeated Patriots in February 2008.


• The other NFC team to win a Super Bowl was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who whipped Oakland in January 2003.


• Six other teams made one appearance in the Super Bowl in the first decade of the 21st century, and each team lost — St. Louis, Carolina, Philadelphia, Seattle, Chicago and Arizona.
  
  The Panthers, Seahawks and Cardinals were playing in their first–ever Super Bowls — as were the Ravens, when they won it all, and as will be the Saints when they face Indianapolis.


• The Saints will be the ninth NFC team to play in the Super Bowl since the start of the 21st century — and the fifth to be playing in their very first Super Bowl. Obviously, they will be hoping to join the Bucs as first–time winners.


• I suppose that, in the eyes of some NFL fans, the fact they appeared in more than one Super Bowl makes the Giants the NFC's team of the decade.
  
  But, in my opinion, the fact that so many different NFC teams earned Super Bowl berths in this decade means we must approach the choice of the NFC's team of the decade a little differently. No team really stands out — unlike the Dallas Cowboys in the 1990s or the San Francisco 49ers in the 1980s.
  
  I think the best way to decide which team was truly the NFC's team of the decade is by regular–season wins. Based on that, the Giants came in third with 88 regular–season wins.
  
  Second in regular–season wins was Green Bay, which recorded 95 wins in the decade. And, if the Packers had played in a Super Bowl during the last 10 years, they might have been realistic contenders for NFC's team of the decade. But they didn't.
  
  Consequently, I would have to say that the NFC's best team was the Philadelphia Eagles, who won 103 games in the 21st century's first decade.
  
  The Eagles lost the only Super Bowl in which they played, but they advanced to five NFC championship games in the decade. That's at least three more appearances than any other NFC team.
  
  And, in the absence of an NFC team with three, four or five Super Bowl appearances, it is the best evidence of the Eagles' dominance.

Who's Going to the Super Bowl?

I think most people are probably pulling for Brett Favre and Peyton Manning today.

And I guess I can live with that, but, personally, I'm pulling for their opponents.

Keep in mind, I didn't say that neither Favre nor Manning would advance to the Super Bowl. They may both win today.

One thing seems to be sure. Win or lose, both will wind up in the Hall of Fame eventually. What is unknown, at least at this stage, is whether either or both will be in Miami in two weeks.

• New York Jets (11–7) at Indianapolis Colts (15–2) — As I have pointed out before, the Jets won at Indianapolis on Dec. 27, giving the Colts their first loss of 2009 and preserving the uniqueness of the 1972 Miami Dolphins' perfect season. That was the first time the teams had met since 2006, when the Jets lost a close one at home. They haven't met in the playoffs since January 2003, when New York whipped the visiting Colts in the wild–card round, 41–0. That game, however, was played in the Meadowlands. This one will be played in Indianapolis. Clearly, the home crowd will be a factor in the game, and, even though I don't expect the fans to have to face bone–chilling weather outside the stadium, I expect lots of noise once they take their seats. But that is only part of the story. It seems to me that the greatest challenge the Colts will face is trying to stop the Jets' ground game. The Jets have one of the NFL's best rushing attacks, and I'm inclined to think the Colts will need to force the Jets into numerous third–and–long situations to shut them down. The key for the Jets? Contain Manning. He has some talent around him, but when he isn't clicking, the Colts can be stopped. I'm not sure which team will be better off today because Manning didn't play on the day the Jets handed the Colts their first loss of the season. Of the three teams that received a bye and then won their first playoff games, the Colts seemed the least polished on offense. Perhaps that was due to the Ravens' defense. Maybe it was indicative of some weakness that most of the Colts' foes did not exploit sufficiently. Indy won a lot of close games this year. My advice to the Jets would be to remain level–headed, no matter what the score may be. I'd really like to see the Jets go to the Super Bowl, but I have a feeling that the Colts will instead.


• Minnesota Vikings (13–4) at New Orleans Saints (14–3) — The last time Minnesota played in New Orleans was Monday, Oct. 6, 2008. The Vikings rallied for a 30–27 win. In fact, you have to go back to Oct. 7, 2001, to find the Saints' last win over the Vikings in New Orleans. But you may need to look no further than your TV this evening to see New Orleans' next home triumph over Minnesota. I'm sure the folks in the Big Easy are eager to see the Saints advance to the Super Bowl. That would be a first for them, and that would be their reward for winning today's game. But it's been more than 30 years since the Vikings were in a Super Bowl. They've come close a couple of times, but they haven't played in the NFL's showcase game since January 1977. Whoever wins today's game will be an unfamiliar Super Bowl entrant for most people, to be sure. As the road team in today's NFC championship game, I think a key to Minnesota's success may not necessarily be Favre's arm. He's had a remarkable season for a 40–year–old man, and I doubt that anyone would quibble with his reputation as one of the great quarterbacks of his era. But I think that the most effective weapon a visiting team can have in the playoffs, especially when the home crowd is likely to be as boisterous as the one in the Superdome this afternoon, is a strong running game. It may not always have been clear to observers this year because the offensive spotlight hasn't been on Adrian Peterson in every game, but he remains one of the most potent running backs in pro football. If the Vikings keep the ball in his hands — and save the passing game until it is needed — they can wear down the Saints' defense, which is better against the pass than the run, and they can take the crowd out of the contest. The Saints have a good running game, too, with Reggie Bush in the backfield, but their quick–strike potential can do more than put points on the board. It can whip the fans into a frenzy, and it can demoralize Minnesota's defense — which, it should be pointed out, was one of the league's best. The Vikings may be able to neutralize New Orleans' passing game if they can get to Drew Brees and sack him early, perhaps forcing him to play more tentatively. If that happens, the Saints will have a solid ground game to rely on, but I see the passing game as being what keeps the fans in the Superdome involved in the contest this afternoon. Anyway, those are the keys to this game, in my view — the Minnesota ground game and the New Orleans air attack. The outcome may be as close as it was when the teams faced each other during the 2008 season, but I'll pick the Saints to win this time.

Last week: 2–2.

Playoffs: 3–5.

And Then There Were Four

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A few days ago, I wrote that I expected at least one of the pro football teams that got a bye in the first week of the playoffs to lose in the divisional round. In fact, one team did lose, but it wasn't the one I predicted.

Actually, I am inclined to believe that few, if any, observers expected what happened.

The first three playoff games of the weekend were won by teams that got a bye — which, by definition, means the home team. The winners on Saturday, New Orleans and Indianapolis, were undefeated until December. Neither is undefeated now, but Indianapolis, which won its first 14 games, seemed almost determined to rid itself of the expectations of perfection that many people believed worked against the New England Patriots a couple of years ago. New Orleans wasn't much better. Once both teams had clinched home field through the conference playoffs, they played their regulars sparingly and made it clear that their focus had shifted to the playoffs.

As a result, the Saints and the Colts entered the weekend saddled with losing streaks. Indy had lost two in a row and hadn't won at home since Dec. 13. New Orleans had lost three in a row and hadn't won at home since November.

I predicted that the Colts, who were facing a Baltimore Ravens team they barely beat in Week 11, would stumble. But, after the way Arizona held off a spirited Green Bay team on wild–card weekend, it wouldn't have surprised me if the Saints had taken it on the chin.

Frankly, I wouldn't have been shocked if both teams had fallen. But neither team did.

Then, yesterday, the Dallas Cowboys played the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings struggled in December while the Cowboys established a reputation as perhaps the hottest team in the NFC, becoming the first team to knock off the Saints, then ending the regular season with a win for the first time in 10 years and then winning a playoff game for the first time since 1996.

Consequently, there were probably more than a few NFL fans who thought the Cowboys might upend the Vikings and Brett Favre. But the Vikings, like the Saints and the Colts the day before, rolled to an easy victory.

Of all four of the weekend's playoff games, Sunday's nightcap may have been the one most NFL fans figured was a foregone conclusion. It matched the visiting New York Jets, who have surprised many fans this season, and the San Diego Chargers, who came into the game having won 11 in a row.

Until the fourth quarter, it looked like the Chargers would hang on and win the game, but it was not to be. The Jets won that final quarter, 14–3, and won the game, 17–10, setting up a rematch of their Dec. 27 game with the Colts. On that day, the Jets handed the Colts their first loss of the season. The Colts had already secured home field and had nothing left to play for. The Jets didn't officially clinch a wild–card berth that day — but they may have done so mentally.

This time, the winner goes to the Super Bowl.

As I observed prior to the kickoff of wild–card weekend, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have featured a team that did not get the opening–round bye. On four of those occasions, the team that didn't get the bye won it all.

Does that mean the Jets will continue their improbable playoff run with a win over the Colts on Sunday, perhaps followed by a victory in the Super Bowl?

I'll be addressing that here later this week!

Bye Bye?

Last week, I wrote that getting the first–round bye in the NFL playoffs can be as much a curse as a blessing.

I believe that. And I believe we will see some proof of that this weekend. The teams to keep your eyes on — the teams that got the byes this year — are New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota and San Diego.

At least one of those teams will fall this weekend. Mark my words.

SATURDAY

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• Arizona (11–6) at New Orleans (13–3) — The last time Arizona played in the Louisiana Superdome was on Dec. 16, 2007. Neither team advanced to the playoffs that year, but the Saints won their encounter, 31–24. That's the only time since Hurricane Katrina that the teams have faced each other. Truthfully, the teams haven't met very often in recent years so it is necessary to look for other factors that could influence the outcome: (1) Arizona is coming off a hard–fought overtime win over Green Bay last Sunday. Will the Cardinals be exhilarated or exhausted? (2) New Orleans hasn't won at home since beating New England on Nov. 30. (3) Saints quarterback Drew Brees has received a lot of attention this season, and he clearly has been crucial to the Saints' success, but, statistically, the Cardinals have the NFL's top offense, its second–best passing game and its fifth–best rushing attack. (4) On the other side of the ball, Arizona's overall defense, its pass defense and its run defense rank second only to Dallas among teams that are still active in the NFC. Nevertheless, Steve Wyche of NFL.com says the intangibles, like home field and a week to rest and regroup, are in the Saints' favor. And John DeShazier of the New Orleans Times–Picayune writes that, if the Saints truly want to be the best team in the NFL, there may be no better way to prove it than by beating the defending NFC champs. It wasn't so long ago that the very thought of either the Saints or the Cardinals even being in the playoffs was laughable, but it isn't so laughable now. One of them will play in their second NFC championship game in the last four years. Which will it be? That's a tough call for me, but, by the narrowest of margins, I'll pick the Saints.

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• Baltimore (10–7) at Indianapolis (14–2) — For the second consecutive week, the Ravens will be playing a team that beat them during the regular season. The Colts barely got by the Ravens on November 22, 17–15, but that game was played in Baltimore. The last time the teams met in Indianapolis was Oct. 12, 2008, when the Colts hammered the Ravens, 31–3. Actually, the Colts have won seven in a row against the Ravens (including a playoff game the year they beat the Bears in the Super Bowl). The Ravens haven't beaten the Colts since Dec. 2, 2001, and some people don't think they will snap that losing streak, in part because Baltimore was much better at home than on the road this year. Nevertheless, the Ravens whipped New England on the road last weekend, and there are some folks, like Bucky Brooks of NFL.com, who think Baltimore's running game, led by Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, can make the difference. At the very least, he concedes it is the running game that not only has kept Baltimore's season going but is responsible for the continued presence in the postseason of the Jets and Cowboys as well. Statistically, the Ravens did have the best running game in the NFL. They were the only squad that averaged more than 200 rushing yards per game, and fans must wonder if Indy can keep up with them. Pat Kirwan, Brooks' colleague at NFL.com, openly wonders if the Colts can stop the Ravens' offensive line. I wonder that, too, but, ultimately, that isn't the issue, is it? The linemen may do their job, but the running backs are the ones who have to make the moves, break tackles and turn up the speed when called for. Baltimore's running attack really has emerged since the Indianapolis game. Last time, as Kirwan points out, the Ravens never scored a touchdown against the Colts with an offense that threw the ball more than ran it. The Ravens settled for five field goals and missed a sixth that would have won the game. The objective needs to be different this time. The Ravens have to get the ball into the end zone, and the ground game seems to be in a better position to produce that kind of result — along with the added benefit of keeping Indy's offense off the field. The Colts are 24th in the NFL in defending the run; they can be had. Another factor in this game is the bye. The Colts haven't won a game since Dec. 17, and they haven't beaten a playoff team since that game with the Ravens nearly two months ago. I believe phoning in their last two games and then taking last week off will work against them. Some people say Dallas or San Diego are the hottest teams in the playoffs right now, but Baltimore could be a plausible candidate for that title. The Ravens have emerged the winners of must–win games to get into and then advance in the playoffs. They have plenty of momentum and a running game that could wear down the Colts. I'll take the Ravens.

SUNDAY

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• Dallas (12–5) at Minnesota (12–4) — This may be the game that NFL fans have anticipated the most this week. The teams last faced each other in Dallas on Oct. 21, 2007; the Cowboys won, 24–14. The last time they met in Minnesota was Sept. 12, 2004; the Vikings won that one, 35–17. The last time the road team won was on Nov. 23, 2000, when Minnesota won in Dallas, 27–15. The teams didn't meet in the playoffs for the first time until 1971, but it became almost an annual thing in the 1970s as they faced each other four times between 1971 and 1977. They have only played twice in the postseason since that time, with Dallas winning in 1996 and Minnesota winning in 1999. Well, that's all in the past. What does the immediate future hold? Let's go back to the recent past for just a moment. The Vikings signed Brett Favre last summer, thinking he could provide the leadership the team needed to get to the Super Bowl, and, in spite of a bit of a late–season slump, he's come through. When the season started and Favre was learning Minnesota's system, there was a tendency for the team to rely on halfback Adrian Peterson. As the season progressed, though, the Vikings evolved from primarily a running team to more of a passing team — in the last two games of the regular season, Favre threw for more than 300 yards in each game while Peterson did not crack 100 yards in rushing. So, while Favre ended the season behind Dallas' Tony Romo in the passing rankings, he's been following an upward trajectory, perhaps at Peterson's expense, but as long as Peterson is in the lineup, Dallas can't afford to focus exclusively on Favre and Minnesota's aerial attack. Not to be forgotten is the fact that the Vikings went 8–0 at home. If New Orleans beats Arizona, the winner of this game will have to travel to the Big Easy next week, but this week, as Sid Hartman observes in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, home field is truly an advantage for the Vikings. It should be interesting — and challenging for the Cowboys. In the end, though, I'll go with the home team.

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• New York Jets (10–7) at San Diego (13–3) — Perhaps the only thing you need to know about this matchup is that it has been nearly three months since San Diego lost a football game. That was against Denver on Oct. 19. Here's something else that might be helpful. The last time the Jets played in San Diego was Sept. 22, 2008. The Jets had Brett Favre calling the signals, but that didn't deter the Chargers, who rolled to a 48–29 victory. That's the only win the Chargers have recorded in four meetings with the Jets in the last 15 years — and it came when the Jets had the only Hall of Fame quarterback they've had in their lineup since Joe Namath was on the roster. It's tempting to believe that, until last weekend, the Jets hadn't won a playoff game since Namath was calling the signals. But it only seems that way. The Jets won wild–card games following the 2004 and 2002 seasons, they won a divisional playoff in January 1999, and they won some playoff games in the 1980s, but they've only gone as far as the AFC championship game since their lone Super Bowl appearance more than 40 years ago. The Chargers haven't been much more successful. They lost the only Super Bowl they've ever played in 15 years ago, and they lost in their only AFC championship appearance since then (they only played in two others since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970). But these Chargers are the definition of hot. It is unfortunate for the Jets to have drawn them. If the Ravens had lost to the Patriots, as everyone expected, the Jets would be playing in Indianapolis this weekend and the Pats would have the unenviable task of playing the Chargers. If the Jets and Ravens win this weekend, that would set up the absolutely final game in Giants Stadium, with the AFC title on the line. But I don't think the Jets have the horses to pull it off. I think the Chargers will win.

Playoffs: 1–3.

My NFL Predictions

This afternoon, the temperature in Dallas is about 88° with a touch of a breeze. In some places, that probably seems pretty warm, but, in Dallas in August, it's like a breath of autumn. It's been the kind of day we normally don't see until late September or early October.

So I'm taking this opportunity to predict how things will turn out in the National Football League — even though the regular season doesn't start until the Titans play the Steelers on Thursday, Sept. 10.

Let's start with the NFC:

• The East is of most interest to football fans around here, since that is the division in which the Cowboys compete. Dallas really blew it at the end of the last regular season and didn't even make the playoffs after being many fans' preseason pick to play in the Super Bowl.
  
  I'm not a Cowboys fan, but I have to pick someone to win the East so I'll pick last year's division winner, the New York Giants. Even so, I wouldn't be surprised to see Philadelphia come on strong. The Eagles, who clinched a wild–card spot with their season–ending rout of the Cowboys, could be deeper at the quarterback position, with Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, than any other team in the division, but Vick still has a few things to prove after a two–year layoff.


• In the North, Minnesota fans think the acquisition of Brett Favre is the missing piece in their playoff puzzle. I'm not so sure about that — Favre will turn 40 in October — but I'm going to pick the Vikings to repeat as division champs — mainly from lack of apparent competition. Still, it's going to be interesting to see what happens when they play Green Bay.
  
  Yes, I know that great things are expected from Jay Cutler in Chicago and rookie Matt Stafford in Detroit, but I'm not convinced that either one will be ready to emerge as the NFL's next great quarterback this season. Cutler has some talent around him in Chicago, but he needs to make the adjustment to his new team and its system first.
  
  And Stafford will take the helm of the NFL's first–ever 0–16 team — a daunting assignment. Eventually, he may lead the Lions back to the playoffs — but it won't be in 2009.


• In the South, Carolina won the division last year, but Atlanta was competitive enough to win a wild–card berth and Tampa Bay might well have won the division if not for a season–ending four–game losing streak.
  
  Clearly, the South was wide open last year. Will it be that competitive this year? It might be. It seems to me there are a lot of intangibles in the NFC South this year. Carolina probably has the most solid coach in John Fox. Atlanta may have the most promising young quarterback in Matt Ryan. Tampa Bay has an unproven coach and a quarterback (Byron Leftwich) who would probably like to make folks forget about his years in Jacksonville. New Orleans scored more points than any team in the division last year but brought up the rear in the standings, finishing 8–8 after giving up more points than anyone else in the division.
  
  I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Atlanta.


• In the West, many people may be picking the Arizona Cardinals to repeat last year's astonishing Super Bowl run.
  
  But lots of folks tend to forget that Arizona was only 9–7 in the regular season last year — worst record of the four division champs.
  
  And most of the Cardinals are not accustomed to the spotlight that shines on Super Bowl teams. They're going to be under a lot of pressure, and I'm not sure they will be able to live up to it.
  
  I might have been inclined to pick Seattle, but the Seahawks are in a bit of a transition. The 10–year Mike Holmgren era ended last season, and I think it is going to take awhile for Seattle to be competitive again.
  
  So I'm going to pick the team that finished second in the West last year, the San Francisco 49ers. I know, it's been awhile since the 49ers were genuine contenders, but I think they might be positioned pretty well this season. Anyway, we might get a good idea if San Francisco is going to be ready for prime time pretty early. The 49ers play the Cardinals on Opening Day.
  
  The two teams opened the season against each other last year, too, and the Cardinals won by 10. If the 49ers had won that game, they would have tied Arizona for the division title. If they had won that game and the rematch on Nov. 10, they would have won the division outright.

As for the wild–card teams, I'll pick Green Bay (as long as the defense is improved) and Dallas.

And now, let's look at the AFC:

• In the East, I think most people consider it New England Patriots territory, even though the Patriots didn't make the playoffs last year. And I'm inclined to agree — as long as quarterback Tom Brady is able to play.
  
  Even without Brady last season, the Pats shared the division title with Miami and lost a wild–card spot on a tiebreaker. This year, I think they will win the division and return to the playoffs.


• In the North, I think Pittsburgh will repeat as division champs, but I think they will have a tough fight with Baltimore. The outcome is likely to be the same — Steelers win the division, Ravens take a wild–card slot.
  
  Neither Cincinnati nor Cleveland look ready to compete. That frees Cleveland to start focusing its attention on the Cavaliers. I don't know what Cincinnati is going to do.


• In the South, I'm going to pick Peyton Manning and the Colts. Tennessee might give them a run for awhile, but I don't think the Titans will repeat as division champs.
  
  Last October, Tennessee beat Indianapolis, 31–21. The Colts won the rematch in late December, 23–0. If the Colts had swept the series, they would have won the division. As it was, the Colts grabbed a wild–card berth.
  
  Tennessee might grab the other wild–card slot. I'll get to that in a minute.


• In the West, I'm going to pick the San Diego Chargers. I know they had a miserable regular season last year (8–8) and barely got into the playoffs. But that is a sign of just how weak the West is.
  
  Denver shared the division, but, I think, the Broncos will be weaker, with a new coach and a new quarterback. I think 2009 will be a learning experience for them.
  
  Oakland and Kansas City have their moments, but neither of them are ready to compete. So, by default, I'm picking the Chargers.

Now, that leaves me with the other wild–card berth in the AFC. I think it could come down to Tennessee and Miami. As it turns out, the two teams will face each other in the 15th week. They will play on the Sunday before Christmas at Nashville's LP Field.

I'm going to pick the Dolphins to win in what will probably be an upset. Then, when the regular season is over, Miami will have the tiebreaker if needed. One way or the other, I think that game on Dec. 20 will be significant.

How about the playoffs? Well, in the NFC, I'm going to say that Green Bay will play at San Francisco and Dallas will play at Atlanta in the wild–card round. I pick the Packers over the 49ers and the Falcons over the Cowboys. The next week, Green Bay travels to Minnesota and Atlanta travels to New York. I'll take the Giants and the Vikings. Then, in the title game, the Giants defeat the Vikings.

In the AFC, I predict that Miami will play at Pittsburgh and Baltimore will play at San Diego in the first round. I predict the Steelers and Ravens will win. In the next round, Baltimore travels to New England and Pittsburgh travels to Indianapolis. I'll pick both home teams to prevail, with the Colts defeating the Patriots in the title game.

That sets up the long–awaited All–Manning Super Bowl — Eli with the Giants, Peyton with the Colts. I'll pick older brother Peyton to win his second Super Bowl ring.

Do you suppose Daddy Archie will come to the game wearing a baseball cap that has Giants on one side and Colts on the other?

Who Will Advance to the Super Bowl?

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This was the play that won last year's Super Bowl.

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On Sunday, we will find out which two teams will be playing in this year's Super Bowl.

One thing we know for sure is the survivors of the conference championship games will not be the teams who met in last year's Super Bowl. The New England Patriots did not qualify for the playoffs, and the New York Giants lost to Philadelphia last weekend.

With the frigid, snowy weather the northern portion of the United States has been experiencing, it's only natural for fans to wonder what kind of impact the weather will have on the games.

The weather should not be a problem in Arizona, where the current forecasts call for sunny conditions and temperatures in the mid-70s Sunday afternoon. But the NFL might wish it had reversed its schedule and permitted the Steelers and Ravens to play in the afternoon instead of the evening. Snow is a 50% possibility in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon and evening, but, obviously, it will be warmer during the day (predicted high near 27°) than it will be after the sun goes down (the predicted low for Sunday night is 14°).

NFC Championship
Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Arizona (9-7-0)
3 p.m. (EST), FOX

They say defense wins championships. If that is so, the Eagles may emerge from the showdown with Arizona as the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl.

But first, let's take a brief look at the offenses.

The offensive statistics appear pretty even. However, the Cardinals have a statistical advantage at quarterback. Arizona's Kurt Warner led the NFC in QB rating (96.9) while Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb was 10th in the NFC in that category (86.4). Warner also led the NFC in completion percentage (67.1%) while McNabb was ninth (60.4%).

McNabb managed to finish fourth in the league in passing yards (3,916), although he still trailed Warner (4,583). And Warner accounted for more passing TDs than McNabb did, 30-23. It's worth pointing out, though, that McNabb's longest pass completion (90 yards) exceeded Warner's longest (79).

But, when you think about it, it probably isn't too difficult for Warner to excel when he has receivers like Larry Fitzgerald (NFC's leader in receiving yardage with 1,431, tied for first in receiving TDs with 12, league leader in receptions with 96), Anquan Boldin (ninth in the NFC in receiving yardage with 1,038, third in receiving TDs with 11, second in receptions with 89) and Steve Breaston (11th in the NFC in receiving yardage with 1,006, 12th in receptions with 77) as targets.

As far as interceptions were concerned, the two were fairly even. Warner threw 14, McNabb threw 11.

Sixteen running backs in the NFL ran for at least 1,000 yards this season, but none played for the Cardinals or the Eagles. In fact, no 1,000-yard rusher remains in the playoffs following the elimination last weekend of the Giants, Panthers, Chargers and Titans, all of whom did have running backs who cracked the 1,000-yard barrier. Of the running backs who are still playing, Brian Westbrook of the Eagles came the closest to 1,000, with 936 yards. Arizona's top rusher was Edgerrin James with 514 yards.

Turning our attention to defense, the Eagles may be one of the few teams in the NFL that can travel to Arizona with the confidence to shut down the Cardinals' passing game.

During the regular season, Philadelphia held opposing QBs to a 54.1% completion rate while restricting those signal-callers to a 72.9 passer rating — and the Eagles had to face Eli Manning and Tony Romo twice, not to mention a game against Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.

The Eagles routinely held teams under 200 yards passing, giving up an average of about 182 yards/game. And the Eagles' foes averaged about 18 points per game, while the Cardinals gave up nearly 27 points per game.

Clark Judge of CBS Sports observes that the Eagles are on the brink of a trip to the Super Bowl for the fifth time in eight years and suggests that this time "it's more satisfying," given the obstacles he's had to overcome.

When the Eagles faced the Cardinals on Thanksgiving night, Philadelphia picked off Warner three times en route to a 48-20 victory.

I don't think it will be that high scoring again, but I think the same team will prevail.

My prediction: Philadelphia 21, Arizona 17.

AFC Championship
Baltimore (11-5-0) at Pittsburgh (12-4-0)
6:30 p.m. (EST), CBS

This may seem almost sacrilegious to Pittsburgh fans, but, at the quarterback position, I see almost no daylight between Roethlisberger and Baltimore's first-year phenom from Delaware, Joe Flacco.

Flacco was 10th in the AFC in QB rating (80.3) while Roethlisberger was 12th (80.1). Roethlisberger did outgain Flacco through the air, 3,301 yards to 2,971, and passed for more TDs, 17 to 14.

Flacco's completion percentage was slightly better than Roethlisberger's, 60.0% to 59.9%, and Flacco did a slightly better job of avoiding interceptions, throwing 12 picks to Big Ben's 15.

But Roethlisberger may have more potent weapons for receivers in Hines Ward (seventh in the AFC with 1,043 yards, tied for sixth in TDs with seven, ninth in receptions with 81) and Santonio Holmes (821 receiving yards, tied for 15th in TDs with five). Flacco's top receiver was Derrick Mason (eighth in the AFC in receiving yards with 1,037, tied for 15th in TDs with five, 10th in receptions with 80).

Like their NFC counterparts, the Steelers and Ravens do not bring 1,000-yard rushers into the AFC championship game, but the Ravens' Le'Ron McClain was eighth in the league in rushing with 902 yards and Willis McGahee contributed 671 yards. Pittsburgh's top rusher was Willie Parker with 791 yards and Mewelde Moore chipped in 588.

The Ravens did a slightly better job of scoring than the Steelers did this season, averaging 24.1 points per game to 21.7 points per game, but that edge appears to be offset by Pittsburgh's performance on defense. The Steelers yielded only 13.9 points per game while the Ravens allowed 15.3.

Both quarterbacks may be able to throw the ball efficiently, provided the weather doesn't play a significant role. Baltimore allowed opposing QBs to complete 60.6% of their passes while the Steelers permitted a 63.4% completion rate. And the Ravens picked off 26 passes while the Steelers intercepted 20. Neither team allowed opposing QBs to throw for over 300 yards at any time this season. But the Steelers only permitted 156.9 passing yards per game while the Ravens allowed 179.7.

And both defenses kept opponents from gaining four yards per carry or better. Baltimore gave up 3.6 yards per carry while Pittsburgh allowed 3.3.

Jamison Hensley of the Baltimore Sun says "Bring on the Steelers," but I say, be careful what you wish for. During the regular season, Pittsburgh edged Baltimore in Pittsburgh, 23-20, then won the rematch in Baltimore, 13-9. I think the Steelers will make it a three-game sweep.

My prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 14.

An Astonishing Weekend

No matter which teams you were pulling for in the NFL playoffs yesterday and today, it was truly an astonishing weekend.

Things got started yesterday with the Baltimore Ravens' hard-fought 13-10 win over the Tennessee Titans and continued with the Arizona Cardinals' comparatively easy 33-13 triumph over the Carolina Panthers.

Then, today, the Philadelphia Eagles eliminated the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, 23-11, and the Pittsburgh Steelers outlasted the San Diego Chargers, 35-24.

So, next Sunday, Baltimore will travel to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will travel to Arizona. The winners of those games will meet in Super Bowl XLIII three weeks from today.

All four of this weekend's games were rematches from the regular season. That hasn't happened in nearly 40 years.

And the AFC and NFC title games also will be rematches from the regular season.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh compete in the same division, so naturally they have faced each other during the regular season. The Steelers beat the Ravens in Pittsburgh back on Sept. 29, 23-20, and then won the game in Baltimore on Dec. 14, 13-9, so the Steelers will be trying to pull off a three-game sweep. As the scores of the earlier games indicate, it won't be easy.

The Eagles and Cardinals played each other in Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night, and the Eagles won, 48-20. There was a time when the Eagles and Cardinals were in the same division, but that was back when the Cardinals called St. Louis their home. Now, the Cardinals play their home games in Arizona and they compete in a different division. But, as the division winners (whereas the Eagles are a wild-card team), the Cardinals will get the home field advantage.

Much will be said about these matchups in the coming week.

My initial thought, however, was this: This must seem like redemption to Donovan McNabb, who endured booing by the fans and benching by his coach only to come back and lead the Eagles to a fifth NFC championship game. Whether he goes to the Super Bowl or not, he has the satisfaction of knowing that he made the clutch plays while the Giants' quarterback, Eli Manning, did not.

The NFL Playoffs

Back in August, I predicted how the NFL playoff field would look at the end of the regular season.

That day has come, and the results of the season, compared to my predictions, are decidedly mixed.

My predictions did pretty well in the AFC, not so well in the NFC.

In the AFC, I predicted New England would repeat as Eastern Division champion (that was a month before Tom Brady was injured for the season — nevertheless, the Patriots managed to win a share of the division title, but not the tiebreaker that would have given them their tickets to the postseason).

But I correctly predicted that Pittsburgh and San Diego would win their divisions. And I also predicted that Miami would be in the playoffs — but as a wild card team, not as the AFC East champs.

And I correctly predicted the Indianapolis Colts would be in the playoffs — but I said they would win their division. Instead, Indy is in the postseason dance as a wild card team.

On the downside, I picked the hapless Bengals to earn a wild card bid. Cincinnati didn't come close to making it to the postseason, finishing the schedule with a 4-11-1 record.

Instead of Cincinnati and New England, the AFC playoff field includes Tennessee and Baltimore.

(Today, instead of talking about the playoffs, New England's followers seem to be more interested in whether or not Brady proposed to his girlfriend during the holidays.)

I was way off on my predictions for the NFC.

All four of the teams I predicted to win their divisions failed to make the playoffs — Dallas, Chicago, Seattle and New Orleans.

Instead, the four division winners are the New York Giants, Minnesota, Carolina and Arizona.

In my own defense, I did pick the Giants and Vikings to make the playoffs — as the wild card teams, not as the division winners they eventually turned out to be.

But the actual wild card teams, Philadelphia and Atlanta, were not mentioned in my predictions.

I know that the teams I predicted to advance to the Super Bowl — New England and Chicago — won't be there.

Who will be?