Who's Gonna Win, Alabama or Georgia?

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So now it comes down to the matchup everyone expected in the SEC Championship — until Auburn upended Georgia and rival Alabama in the regular season. But Auburn couldn't beat Georgia in the SEC Championship and missed a chance to play for the national title.

Now the fourth–ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (12–1) will face the third–ranked Georgia Bulldogs (13–1) for the national championship tonight starting at 7 (Central) on ESPN. I expect a classic defensive struggle in true Southeastern Conference fashion.

It is a battle that will be waged on many levels.

It is a battle between mentor and protege. Georgia coach Kirby Smart served on Alabama coach Nick Saban's staff until accepting his current position. This will be the 12th time Saban has faced one of his former assistants. So far he has won them all.

Most people probably expected to see the Heisman winner, Oklahoma senior QB Baker Mayfield, in the title game, but the Sooners lost a double–overtime classic to Georgia in last Monday's semifinal in the Rose Bowl.

That seems to make it less likely that the championship game will be an aerial show, which is probably for the best since both teams are in the Top 10 in pass defense. A good quarterback can still cause some problems for a good pass defense, as Mayfield demonstrated in completing 23 of 35 passes for two touchdowns and 287 yards against Georgia, but the quarterbacks for Alabama and Georgia, as talented as they are, are not close to his level yet.

While Mayfield was second in the nation in passing yardage, Georgia's freshman quarterback Jake Fromm was 60th and Alabama sophomore Jalen Hurts was 73rd. Both have potential, but both are still young and developing.

Hurts, however, does have the advantage over Fromm in the sense that he has been here before. Alabama came up just short in last year's national championship game against Clemson. It wasn't his fault. Hurts threw for one touchdown and ran for another, and the Crimson Tide played turnover–free football, but Alabama yielded three touchdowns in the final quarter to blow a 10–point lead.

Alabama junior wide receiver Calvin Ridley was No. 41 nationally in receiving yardage with 935 yards this season, making him the most prolific receiver on the field tonight. No other receiver in tonight's game finished in the Top 100.

That also seems to make it more likely that the game will be a battle on the ground, but neither team has a Top 10 runner. The closest is Georgia senior Nick Chubb, who ranked No. 26 with more than 1,300 yards and a per–carry average gain of more than 6 yards, but he has the No. 38 back, senior Sony Michel, to share the load.

Chubb and Michel — regarded by some as the best rushing twosome in college football history — will be challenged by Alabama's second–in–the–nation run defense.

Georgia is pretty good against the run, too. The Bulldogs' run defense ranks No. 18, which should be adequate against the nation's 61st–best rusher, junior Damien Harris. Hurts is dangerous when he runs the ball, too, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, but he only runs the ball about 11 or 12 times per game. If Hurts isn't able to throw against Georgia, he may have to do more running than usual.

Although the teams have faced each other 67 times, this will be the first time they have met since Oct. 3, 2015. Georgia has won less than 40% of the time and hasn't beaten Alabama since 2007. That, incidentally, was Georgia's third consecutive win against the Tide, continuing a pattern that has been characteristic of this series since the early '90s.

Since that time, one team wins three in a row, then the other team wins three in a row, then the first team wins three in a row and so on. Alabama's victory in 2015 was its third straight against the Bulldogs. According to the pattern of the series, that means Georgia will prevail tonight.

But Alabama was established as a 4½–point favorite once the matchup was certain. Is that significant? Well, I read that, since 2010, Alabama has been favored in all but one game — the exception being that game against Georgia in 2015.

Of course, the Tide has lost a dozen times since the start of the 2010 season — all games in which they were favored — so point spreads are not infallible. But Alabama's record is impressive.

The teams have met six times in Atlanta, with each winning three times. The last time they played there was in the SEC Championship in December 2012. Alabama was the winner. Georgia hasn't beaten Alabama in Atlanta since 1942.

So now it is time for me to make my final college football pick of the 2017 season. I've done pretty well in the postseason — but not so much in the national playoffs. I predicted Oklahoma and Clemson would be playing tonight, and you can see how well that worked out!

I hope I'm wrong again, but I really believe that Alabama will prevail.

National semifinals: 0–2

Bowls: 10–3

Overall: 222–52

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 4–1

Overall upset specials: 17–24

Who Will It Be, Alabama or Clemson?

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And now, we are down to the final game — #1 Clemson vs. #2 Alabama. You can see the game on ESPN Monday night starting at 7:30 p.m. (Central). It will be played in University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

My record in the bowl season was good but not spectacular. I was 10–6 in my picks. That is a .625 accuracy percentage. As I say, it was good. Not great.

But I must say that I am rather proud of my record in the college football semifinals. I picked Clemson over Oklahoma and Alabama over Michigan State. Right — in both cases. Neither game was even close.

Now the tough part. Picking which one will win the national title. I expect this one to be closer, much closer.

One thing I can say without fear of contradiction is Alabama's been there — frequently — in recent seasons. It seems like it's been that way all my life. Oh, sure, I know Alabama has been through dry spells, but very little really seems to have changed since I was a boy and Bear Bryant was on the Alabama sideline. Bryant brought six national titles to Tuscaloosa, and Alabama fans grew up during his tenure with a kind of sense of entitlement that is still there. Call it Alabama affluenza.

If Alabama wasn't in the national championship conversation, so the thinking seemed to go, it was an off year. But that wouldn't last long. It never did.

The Bear never had a Heisman Trophy winner, either. Nick Saban has had two, and one of them, Derrick Henry, is on the current roster.

Yet, in spite of all that, Clemson's offense is ranked higher than Alabama's. Clemson has the sixth–ranked offense in the nation. Alabama's 35th–ranked offense is respectable, not spectacular.

Both teams are very good on defense. Alabama's defense, which always gets attention, is ranked third, and Clemson's is ranked 13th.

My guess is that it will be a defensive game, and Alabama's defense will be tested by Clemson's sophomore QB, Deshaun Watson, and sophomore running back, Wayne Gallman. Gallman headlines the 11th–best run offense in the nation.

That is where the game is likely to be decided. The Crimson Tide has been tough against the run all year; in fact, Alabama is ranked #1 in the land against the run, which suggests that Clemson may struggle to score.

If Clemson does struggle on the ground, the Tigers might turn to their passing game, which was #19 in the nation. Alabama's defense was ranked #31 against the pass so there may be some opportunity there. Watson was 18th in the nation in passing yards, he completed more than 68% of his passes, and he had 31 touchdown strikes — and he was only sacked 13 times. And yet ...

Alabama junior defensive lineman Jonathan Allen is a beast at 6–foot–3 and weighing in at 272 pounds. He finished sixth in the nation in sacks with 12. Junior linebacker Tim Williams chipped in 11.

Run defense is Clemson's Achilles' heel if you want to call it that. The Tigers are #32 against the run, which is better than most but not as good as some. It might be good enough against Alabama, though, which is ranked #23 in run offense even with the Heisman winner in the backfield.

Speaking of the ground game, Henry led the nation in rushing with 2,061 yards (including the 75 he picked up against Michigan State on New Year's Eve). You can be sure the Tigers will keep an eye on him.

Historically, I suppose there is considerable motivation for Clemson. Alabama leads the all–time series 12–2. But I seriously doubt that anyone living remembers the last time Clemson beat Alabama. It was on Oct. 25, 1905 in Columbia, S.C.

Alabama has beaten Clemson 12 straight times, and the Tigers' highest score in any of those games was 14 points on Oct. 26, 1968. More often than not, Alabama has shut out Clemson.

Bryant went 5–0 against Clemson, and his teams did shut out Clemson the first time he faced the Tigers and the last time he faced them. Clemson scored in the three games that were played in between. In the Tigers' entire 12–game losing streak against the Tide, Clemson has only scored in five games.

I'm sure the Tigers will score in this one. After all, Clemson hasn't been shut out since Aug. 30, 2003, when the Tigers lost to Georgia.

Actually, I think the Tigers will do better than score. I predict that Clemson will defeat Alabama.

Last week: 10–6

Upset specials last week: 1–3

Season: 198–58

Upset specials overall: 9–17

Picking Oregon to Win It All

Well, the national championship game is being played in nearby Arlington tonight. Kickoff is in about an hour.

Oregon and Ohio State survived the semifinals on New Year's Day and are playing for the title tonight.

They've met eight times before — most recently in the 2010 Rose Bowl. Ohio State is 8–0 in those games.

It really should be a good game. It matches two Top 10 offenses — Oregon is ranked third in the country, Ohio State is ranked ninth. I expect a lot of scoring.

Ohio State's defense is ranked well ahead of Oregon's. The Buckeyes are 17th in the nation; the Ducks are 84th.

I guess those rankings suggest that Ohio State will win the game tonight. Perhaps the Buckeyes will. They have already surprised me twice, beating Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship and then Alabama in a national semifinal — both pretty handily, too — despite being without their injured quarterback. Impressive.

But, really, I'm inclined to pick Oregon. The Ducks have the Heisman winner, and they buried Florida State, the defending national champions, on New Year's Day. That's pretty impressive as well.

So I pick Oregon to win. Perhaps it will go to overtime. Even if it doesn't, I expect it to go down to the wire.

Enjoy.

Bowls: 7–8

Season: 213–58

Predicting the SEC

In most respects, I guess my prediction for the Southeastern Conference is not too surprising.

I'm picking Florida to win the SEC and play for a second consecutive national championship. With 18 starters returning, including a former Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, I don't see how anyone can pick against the Gators in the SEC. But I'm not convinced that they will win a second straight national championship. It's awful tough to repeat.

Likewise, it seems to me to be a no–brainer to pick Georgia to finish second in the SEC East. The Bulldogs went 10–3 last year and finished ranked 13th in the AP and Coaches' polls. And, in the history of Georgia football, only one other coach has a better winning percentage than Mark Richt — and he coached one season in the 19th century.

The rest of the SEC East looks pretty dismal to me. Normally, I would expect Tennessee to be competitive. But the Volunteers went 5–7 last season and they have a new coach (Lane Kiffin). The Vols have a winning tradition — second among SEC schools, ninth nationally — and an enviable bowl record — tied for third in bowl appearances, fourth in bowl victories — so I expect Tennessee to resume its winning ways in the near future. But not this year.

The SEC West gives me a challenge — and not just because I am a graduate of the University of Arkansas.

Most people seem to pick Ole Miss and Alabama to battle it out, even though LSU is the team that has enjoyed the most success in recent years.

Predictions I've seen forecast Ole Miss to be Florida's foe for the SEC title, but I'm going to pick Alabama to win the West. And I pick LSU to finish second. Ole Miss will be good, and as a Razorback fan, I know how good Houston Nutt is as coach. He was at Arkansas for 10 years before moving on to Ole Miss. But I'm expecting Ole Miss to drop off a little from its 9–4 finish last season.

Anyway, here is my prediction in the SEC:

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East

1. Florida


2. Georgia


3. Tennessee


4. South Carolina


5. Kentucky


6. Vanderbilt

West

1. Alabama


2. LSU


3. Ole Miss


4. Arkansas


5. Auburn


6. Mississippi State

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Going Out on a Limb

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I know what the conventional wisdom says.

And I know North Carolina crushed Michigan State when they met a few months ago.

The Tar Heels have long been considered the favorites to be this season's champions.

But we're down to the championship game. It's been 30 years since Magic Johnson took the Spartans to what was, for many, an improbable title game victory over Larry Bird and Indiana State. And the 2009 championship game is being played in Detroit, less than 100 miles from the Michigan State campus.

Logic — or, perhaps, more significantly, statistics — suggests that North Carolina has the edge.

Each team has individual standouts. They just stand out in different things.

• North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough is 13th in the country in free throw percentage, and


• Ty Lawson is tied for 17th in three–pointer percentage.

On the other side, Michigan State's Raymar Morgan is 14th in field goal percentage.

But they both have top 20 national performers in at least one category. In assists, North Carolina's Lawson is tied for 10th in the nation. Michigan State's Kalin Lucas is tied for 16th.

And North Carolina seems to have a decisive edge in team statistics.

• North Carolina led the nation in field goals per game (Michigan State is 95th).


• The Tar Heels are second in points per game (Michigan State is 100th).


• North Carolina is second in rebounds (Michigan State is 34th).


• North Carolina is second in assists (Michigan State is 18th).


• The Tar Heels are fourth in free throws per game (Michigan State is 57th).


• North Carolina is 16th in blocks (Michigan State is not in the top 100).


• North Carolina is 29th in steals (Michigan State isn't in the top 100).

Common sense tells me that North Carolina will win the game.

But I feel this is one of those moments when the underdog is going to deliver.

Like the U.S. hockey team against the Russians at the Lake Placid Olympics in 1980.

Detroit — and the state of Michigan — have been knocked down a few times. Unemployment is well into double digits there now. The car industry is wobbling on the edge of a cliff.

The Spartans can give Michigan and Detroit the kind of psychological lift the 1980 U.S. hockey team gave a battered America.

I think this may be one of those moments that transcend the playing field. It will do you no good to analyze the numbers and apply logic to your prediction. This one will be played from the heart.

I predict Michigan State 79, North Carolina 77.

Packers Will Win NFC North

Heading into last weekend, Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota were tied atop the NFC North — formerly the NFC Central but, as always, the "Black and Blue Division" — with records of 5-5.

The Bears and Vikings both won, improving to 6-5 prior to their showdown in Minnesota next weekend. The Packers lost to New Orleans on Monday night.

But I think the Packers can finish on top of the division. And I don't particularly feel that I'm going out on a limb in saying so. Here’s why:

• Let’s be clear about one thing. The winless Detroit Lions show no inclination to get their first win of the season any time soon.
  
  As Bob Wojnowski observes in the Detroit News, "It's hard to tell if the Lions are feeling the pressure [of losing] or if they're just an accumulation of poor players playing poorly."
  
  Whichever it is, Green Bay and Minnesota each have one game left with Detroit — which should be regarded as lead pipe cinch victories. The Bears have already played Detroit twice this season so the Bears have no more automatic "Ws."
  
  And both the Vikings and Packers pick up a "gimme" victory at Detroit’s expense.


• Both Chicago and Green Bay have games to play with the 4-7 Houston Texans, but there’s a catch. The Texans have been much better at home (where they’re 3-2 so far) than they’ve been on the road (where they’re 1-5). The Bears have to play at Houston; the Packers get to play Houston in Green Bay.
  
  The Bears have struggled on the road, so I’ll predict that Houston wins that one. And the Packers will beat Houston at Lambeau Field.


• In almost the same situation with a different home-road wrinkle, Chicago and Green Bay each have a game left against 4-7 Jacksonville. The Jaguars have struggled at home, where they’re 1-5, but they’ve got a winning record on the road (3-2). Jacksonville will play at Chicago, then come home to play Green Bay, next month.
  
  Again, the home and road numbers suggest advantage to Green Bay and disadvantage to Chicago, but, in this case, I’m going to predict a reversal from the Houston game outcomes. Chicago wins at home, Green Bay loses at Jacksonville.
  
  Hey, this is the NFL we're talking about. Inexplicable things always happen in the NFL.


• If Minnesota gets past Chicago and Detroit in the next two weeks, the Vikings will occupy the top spot in the division at that time with an 8-5 record — and I think that's what will happen.
  
  But they’ve got some mountains to climb against playoff contenders in the final three weeks, when they travel to 7-4 Arizona (the Cardinals are 4-1 at home so far), play host to 7-4 Atlanta (the Falcons have struggled on the road) and finish the regular season with a home game against the 10-1 New York Giants, who are 7-0 against NFC competition.
  
  It’s entirely possible that the Vikings will finish the season at 8-8 or 9-7 — and possibly miss the playoffs. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they’ll beat Atlanta, finishing the season at 9-7.


• As for Chicago, I’ve predicted that the Bears will lose to Minnesota and Houston and beat Jacksonville.
  
  That makes the other two games vital for them, and they’re back-to-back home games — against New Orleans on Thursday, Dec. 11, and Green Bay on Monday, Dec. 22.
  
  Neither opponent has played particularly well on the road, but I’m going to predict that at least one — probably the Packers, who have already beaten the Bears once and are more accustomed to the windy, possibly snowy conditions of Soldier Field than the Saints — will win in Chicago.
  
  That leaves Chicago at 8-8.


• I’ve predicted that the Packers would beat Detroit and Chicago, which would give them the best division record (5-1). I’ve also predicted they would beat Houston and lose to Jacksonville.
  
  That leaves one more game — this Sunday’s home game against Carolina.
  
  As I see it, this game is all about location, location, location.
  
  Three NFC teams are undefeated at home, and Carolina (8-3 overall) is one of them. But the Panthers are 2-3 on the road.
  
  Green Bay, on the other hand, is not unbeaten at home, but the Packers have been respectable, with a 3-2 record.
  
  And the Panthers are trying to bounce back from Sunday’s 45-28 loss at Atlanta.
  
  Neither team seems to have a real edge in total defense. Carolina ranks eighth in the NFC, Green Bay ranks ninth.
  
  The Packers, however, are second in the NFC in passing defense, whereas the Panthers are 12th in passing offense in the NFC.
  
  On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers has helped the Packers settle into sixth place in the NFC in passing. The Panthers counter with the sixth-ranked passing defense in the NFC.
  
  And, in case you’re wondering about the weather …
  
  The Panthers will leave the comparatively balmy climate of North Carolina (temperatures expected to be in the 50s most of this week) to play in chilly Green Bay, where the forecasters currently predict a high of about 35 on Sunday.
  
  After losing to New Orleans on Monday night, the Packers will be eager for redemption.
  
  And winning that game should contribute to an eventual 9-7 finish for Green Bay.

That would leave Minnesota and Green Bay tied for first place in the NFC North, and the two teams have split their regular-season games.

Based on the tiebreaking procedure, the next tiebreaker is best record in division play, and I predict the Packers will clinch that by winning their games with Chicago and Detroit.

Can the Packers win in the playoffs? I don't know, but the objective at this point is simply to get to the playoffs. And I think the Packers will.