When the Saints Came Marching In

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I truly have lived to see some astonishing things in my life.

Man walked on the moon for the first time when I was but a boy. A president resigned in disgrace; another was put through the impeachment process because of an improper relationship with a White House intern.

In my life, I have seen telephones evolve from gadgets that were tied to locations to gadgets that could go anywhere — and take photos to prove it.

When I was working on my master's degree and I had to do research, I would probably spend at least one weekend — most likely more — going through the card catalog at the campus library. Today, I could do much of my research in a few minutes on my computer. That sure would have made writing term papers easier.

I've seen a lot of amazing things in sports, not the least of which was what happened in Miami five years ago today. The New Orleans Saints won the Super Bowl against the Indianapolis Colts in Miami.

If you're under a certain age, that may not impress you. The Saints may have always been a strong team in your memory. But you must understand. I'm old enough to remember when the Saints were called the "Ain'ts" and their fans wore paper bags over their heads to home games. Maybe they had fans who wore bags to the road games, too, although it is hard to imagine the Saints having either New Orleans–based fans who would travel to see the Saints get hammered or fan clubs in other NFL cities back in those days.

But five years ago today, they stood atop the football world. No one was wearing a paper bag that day, and there were pockets of Saints fans to be found across the country.

In the first quarter, it didn't look like the Saints would win. The Colts got off to a 10–0 lead, scoring on their first two possessions, and they made the lead hold up at intermission. They didn't score in the second quarter, but they held the Saints to a couple of field goals.

At halftime, it looked like Peyton Manning might win his second Super Bowl. He led the Colts to a victory over the Chicago Bears three years earlier in Super Bowl XLI.

His brother matched him the following season in the New York Giants' amazing upset of the unbeaten New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. Five years ago today, Peyton Manning had the chance to go one up on his younger brother.

And the Colts continued to lead after three quarters — although the Saints did take the lead for about five minutes after Drew Brees completed a 16–yard scoring strike to Pierre Thomas on the first possession of the second half.

But Manning directed a 10–play, 76–yard scoring drive, and the Colts reclaimed the lead, 17–13. New Orleans got a field goal before the quarter ended with Indianapolis clinging to a 17–16 lead.

Indianapolis would not score again, and through about two–thirds of the final period, it looked like the Saints wouldn't score, either.

But New Orleans scored twice.

Brees completed a pass to Jeremy Shockey for a touchdown, then hooked up with Lance Moore for a two–point conversion and a seven–point lead.

On the following possession, Manning and the Colts were driving in New Orleans territory when Tracy Porter picked off a pass and ran it back for a touchdown and a commanding 31–17 lead for New Orleans.

A little over three minutes remained. The Colts did manage to drive into New Orleans territory, but it took them too long to do so, and they turned it over on downs on the Saints' 5 with only seconds to play.

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Brees, who completed 32 of 39 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns, was named the game's MVP.

Since that day, Eli Manning won another Super Bowl, and Peyton made it back to the big game, too, only to lose in a big way. Now, it is uncertain whether Peyton will come back for another season. They say he will announce his plans by the end of this month.

This Is Worth Another Look

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Green Bay rookie Randall Cobb tied an NFL record with his 108–yard kickoff return against the New Orleans Saints last night.

OK, I'm a Packer fan so it stands to reason that I would like this. But if you are a football fan, even a Saints fan, it's worth another look ... or two or three.

For some reason, when I saw that return, I thought of a scene from "Citizen Kane" — when the singing tutor Kane had hired to instruct his wife said, "Some people can sing. Some can't."

The same logic surely must apply to kick returners. Some can. Some can't.

Randall Cobb definitely can.

Longest Field Goal Still on Record Books

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If you follow football, you know that field goals can be very important.

But, unless somebody kicks a game–winner in the last seconds, field goals don't get the same attention as touchdown runs and passes. That's understandable. They aren't worth as much — although there have been proposals that would add to the value for especially long field goals in recognition of their increased difficulty.

That's something I can support — kind of like the three–point shot in basketball. Reward kickers for doing something special. I guess I have a little recent personal motivation to say that. The kicker for my alma mater, the University of Arkansas, nailed a 51–yard field goal on Saturday.

That's the longest field goal that has been kicked at Arkansas in nearly 20 years. But it wasn't the game–winner. It came in the middle of a game that turned into something of a rout for the Razorbacks so it didn't get a lot of attention.

That, in turn, reminded me of when I worked on the sports desk at the Arkansas Gazette.

The Gazette is no longer in business, but, when I was there, we took a lot of high school football game accounts over the phone from stringers and such on Friday nights.

The newspaper served the whole state, and we didn't have enough reporters on the entire staff — let alone the sports side — to physically attend every high school game.

And we sure didn't have enough space for extensive articles on every game. Most of the time, we had to settle for a couple of paragraphs that mentioned the score, a couple of the outstanding players or the game–winning play and the teams' records.

That was about it.

I guess it goes without saying that the phone calls we took on those very busy Friday nights didn't last too long.

Anyway, one of the fellows on the staff used to love to come up with nicknames for players in game accounts he took over the phone — and sometimes he would try to sneak one into print. Typically, the nicknames he thought of were ones that were given, originally, to the gridiron legends of the 1940s and 1950s.

Those of us on the copy desk learned to be particularly alert for these nicknames, and we caught a lot of them. We didn't catch them all, but we tried. It helped if you were familiar with football history.

You know the kind of stuff I mean. If a kid kicked a game–winning field goal on the last play of the game, this guy wanted to nickname him "The Toe." If a guy ran for a lot of yards, he wanted to nickname him "Crazy Legs."

If I think about it, I can see him in my mind's eye, chuckling as he read the first paragraph in such a blurb he had written when he saw it on a page proof: "Joe (The Toe) Smith kicked a 31–yard field goal as time ran out to lift Little Rock Catholic to a victory over Little Rock Central ..."

The nickname was his inside joke. If it was a somewhat obscure nickname, he knew he had a good chance of getting away with it because the copy desk might not know that the nickname wasn't legitimate, that a coach or a teacher or whoever called in the score hadn't said it was the player's real nickname, that it was actually an homage.

Kim, you rascal.

He particularly loved that nickname "The Toe." I worked on the Gazette sports staff for four football seasons, and I think that is the nickname he mentioned more often than any other.

If you're a fan of football, you may know that the original "The Toe" was Lou Groza, an NFL kicker in the 1950s and 1960s who also played offensive tackle. He spent his whole professional career with the Cleveland Browns, and a writer for the Cleveland Press gave him that nickname.

Groza was a prolific kicker. He kicked game–winning field goals in pressure situations. He led the NFL in field goals five times. But today is the anniversary of something that even he, as successful as he was, never achieved.

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Forty years ago today, Tom Dempsey kicked a 63–yard field goal for the New Orleans Saints against the Detroit Lions, setting an NFL record that has not been exceeded, only matched.

There were a few things about this field goal that made it unique.

For one thing, the right–footed Dempsey was born without any toes on his right foot. He wore a special shoe that was believed by some to give him an unfair advantage.

(Some might argue that going through life with half the toes one is supposed to have qualifies as a disadvantage.)

The shoe Dempsey wore on that day, incidentally, can be seen at the New Orleans Sports Hall of Fame.

For another, the Saints and the Lions were nothing like their modern incarnations. The Saints of 1970 were a young, struggling expansion squad while the Lions were on their way to the playoffs as the NFC's first wild–card team.

It was to be — at least, when compared to the next four decades — a rare postseason appearance for Detroit. At the time, though, the Lions were considered a competitive franchise that was usually included in any conversation about Super Bowl contenders.

Nevertheless, Dempsey's kick handed the win to New Orleans.

Ironically, Dempsey's record–setting field goal came eight days before the first anniversary of another team field goal record he set. On Nov. 16, 1969, against the New York Giants, Dempsey kicked six field goals in a single game, more than any other kicker in New Orleans history, as the Saints won by a single point.

In these days of political correctness, some people seem to believe that the way to handle an unpleasant truth is to change the language used to describe that truth — or ignore it completely.

I won't dispute the importance of language, but I think what is really needed is more role models who have overcome the barriers they faced — physical disabilities, prejudices of any kind, etc. — and achieved great things.

We need more people who will inspire us with their accomplishments.

More Tom (The Toe) Dempseys.

The Saints Go Marching In

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Somewhere in this huge land of ours, a newspaper or a sports site or a TV network must have used the line I'm using as my headline.

It seems like an obvious thing.

Most people probably associate that line with Louis Armstrong and a jazz band. But, originally, it was an American gospel hymn, and it has been frequently used as a funeral march in New Orleans.

They aren't in mourning in New Orleans today. The Saints defeated the Indianapolis Colts in last night's Super Bowl.

If you read what I wrote yesterday, I picked the Colts to win. And that seemed to be the consensus, although New Orleans was the sentimental choice of a lot of observers. People often speak of how a city or region "deserves" a sports championship because of the hard times it has endured, but that seems to be particularly true of New Orleans.

With the wreckage left by Hurricane Katrina still evident in parts of the city nearly five years after Katrina made landfall, it's almost impossible to make the case that the folks in New Orleans don't deserve to feel good about themselves.

Jeff Duncan writes, in the New Orleans Times–Picayune, that the town belongs to quarterback Drew Brees, the game's MVP, and I'm sure it does.

Meanwhile, Bob Kravitz muses in the Indianapolis Star that the "football gods" may have had their revenge for the Colts' decision to sit their marquee players instead of making an earnest effort to finish the regular season with a perfect record.

But then he appeared to regain his sense of perspective. "The Saints were too good, too polished, too inspired ... too intent on bringing their wounded city a much–needed boost. Think about this: In their championship run, the Saints beat Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning.

"Remarkable."

Yes, it was.

Congratulations to the Saints.

A Few Thoughts Before the Game

In a couple of hours, Super Bowl XLIV will kick off.

I've been picking the NFL games — did pretty well, too, in the regular season but just broke even, so far, in the playoffs — since the first kickoff in September so I guess it is only fitting that I should make a prediction today.

Both teams have outstanding quarterbacks. Indianapolis' Peyton Manning is probably the marquee name of the two and deservedly so. He was second in the NFL this year (behind Houston's Matt Schaub) in passing, although New Orleans' Drew Brees wasn't exactly chopped liver. He was sixth in the NFL — and actually averaged 10 yards more per game than Manning did (he also had more TD passes and fewer interceptions, but he was sacked twice as many times).

With all that talent at the quarterback position, one would expect to find more Colts and Saints among the NFL's top receivers. And the Colts do have Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark in the league's Top 20 (the Saints have one receiver in the Top 20, Marques Colston), but it's kind of a sharp dropoff for both teams after that. New Orleans' Devery Henderson is 38th in the NFL, Indianapolis' Pierre Garcon is 44th and New Orleans' Robert Meachem is tied for 49th with Jacksonville's Torry Holt.

That seems to reflect the somewhat freewheeling nature of both quarterbacks, really — especially Brees, who seems to like having many targets from which to choose.

Wayne, however, has been having problems recently with a knee injury that has been nagging him all year and has put his status in doubt. That might affect Manning since Wayne was tied with Randy Moss for fifth–best receiver in the NFL this season. However, Manning is versatile enough that he should be able to overcome Wayne's absence if necessary.

The running game does not play a major role in either offense. Statistically, the best runner on the field is Indianapolis' Joseph Addai, who was 22nd in the NFL this season. New Orleans' Pierre Thomas was tied for 24th. The Saints' Mike Bell was 32nd. Reggie Bush, who won the Heisman Trophy when he was at Southern Cal, is probably the best known of the running backs in this year's Super Bowl, but he only carried the ball an average of five times per game during the season and finished tied for 48th in the NFL.

Consequently, it seems that sacks and interceptions may be the best way to judge each team's defensive potential. The Colts' defensive ends, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, were in the NFL's Top 20; Freeney, in fact, was third in the NFL with 13½ sacks. But his status, too, is in doubt. He suffered an ankle injury late in the AFC title game, and it is unknown whether it will limit him or even prevent him from playing.

Meanwhile, the Saints' Will Smith was fifth in the NFL in sacks. The Colts will need to make keeping him away from Manning a priority for the offensive line.

If Manning and Brees can avoid being sacked, there is no guarantee they can avoid interceptions, but the Saints seem to have an edge in that regard. New Orleans' Darren Sharper, who was tied with three other players for the NFL lead, picked off nine passes this season. Free safety Antoine Bethea was the Colts' leader with four — which is the same number that the Saints' Tracy Porter had.

The game matches two potent offenses so the key to victory depends on which team keeps the other team's defensive strength in check. And both defenses have strengths that seem tailor–made to exploit the other team's quarterback's weakness.

Manning is more prone to being intercepted than Brees; unfortunately for him, the Saints' secondary had a lot of success doing that (admittedly, against lesser quarterbacks, for the most part).

Brees, on the other hand, is more prone to being sacked, which means that, if Freeney is able to play, the Colts may be able to put a lot of pressure on him. He may not necessarily throw interceptions, but he might be rushed into throwing the ball away or having to take a sack. To avoid that, New Orleans might have to keep someone in the backfield to block, reducing the number of targets for Brees.

But if Freeney is slowed by his injury or prevented from playing at all, the Saints can play their normal game.

I'm not a medical expert, but I have heard it said that the injury Freeney has is the kind that can require up to two months to heal. If that is so, then two weeks is rushing it considerably.

Because of that, I'm going to predict that, if Freeney does start the game, he won't be able to finish it.

But I wonder if that will be the decisive factor. So often, it seems to me, a Super Bowl is decided on intangibles, and statistics don't tell the whole story.

Gene Wojciechowski of ESPN.com summarizes my feelings better than I could have done myself.

"My heart says to pick the New Orleans Saints," he writes. "For the city. For those fans. For guys like Drew Brees and Deuce McAllister.

"But every other body part says to go with the Indianapolis Colts.

"Sorry, heart."

If the game turns into the kind of shootout that some folks have been suggesting, Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star says the Colts will win.

Sure, I know it's homerism. But I agree with his logic. And, like Kravitz, I believe Manning will win his second Super Bowl, possibly with a Joe Montana–like fourth quarter drive.

But I know it is also possible that, as former Colts coach Tony Dungy said this week, Indianapolis could win by a couple of scores or more. Kravitz found that "shocking," but I didn't. The Saints are in the Super Bowl for the first time. First–timers often lose, and sometimes they lose by huge margins.

However, I'm more inclined to anticipate a close one. That's been the eventual outcome most of the time in recent years. So I'm hoping for a close one, preferably with a dramatic finish. Something both teams can be proud of.

I don't usually predict scores, but I'm going to predict Colts 28, Saints 24.

But, if it's a blowout, at least you've got The Who at halftime to look forward to.

Not Your Typical Super Bowl

It probably should have been obvious when the conference championship games were over, but the 44th Super Bowl — and that reminds me, don't you think it is about time to dispense with the Roman numerals? — isn't going to be your daddy's Super Bowl.

For one thing, the teams aren't your usual suspects, if such a thing exists in pro football. Certain teams — New England, Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Francisco come to mind — have been there more often than most, but the Colts will be making only their second appearance in the last 40 years and the Saints will be playing in their very first Super Bowl.

For another, the two teams with the best records in their leagues will be facing each other. That doesn't happen very often. Since the NFL introduced playoff seedings in 1975, the top two seeds have met eight times. On six of those occasions, the NFC's representative was the winner — which may be good news for New Orleans.

Something else to keep in mind. There is usually little news of any real significance from either team in the traditional two–week period between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl.

But this year may be different. There is already talk that Indianapolis may have to play without defensive end Dwight Freeney, and most NFL fans would probably tell you that Freeney is the best defensive player in a game that seems top heavy with offensive stars. Peter King of Sports Illustrated says that, if Freeney can't play, it will make running the offense much easier for New Orleans. And he's right.

How much does Freeney mean to Indianapolis? Well, Scouts, Inc. came up with rankings for all the players who are expected to suit up for Sunday's game. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning was rated "best player on the planet." There are probably some dissenters scattered around the country, but I'm inclined to go along with that. The next six were judged the "elite players." Freeney was one of those six.

Most folks probably wouldn't argue that point, either. Freeney was responsible for 13½ sacks this season as well as 24 tackles, 19 of which were solo efforts. That's going to be tough to replace.

We'll see if that is a decision the Colts are forced to make.

Who's Going to the Super Bowl?

I think most people are probably pulling for Brett Favre and Peyton Manning today.

And I guess I can live with that, but, personally, I'm pulling for their opponents.

Keep in mind, I didn't say that neither Favre nor Manning would advance to the Super Bowl. They may both win today.

One thing seems to be sure. Win or lose, both will wind up in the Hall of Fame eventually. What is unknown, at least at this stage, is whether either or both will be in Miami in two weeks.

• New York Jets (11–7) at Indianapolis Colts (15–2) — As I have pointed out before, the Jets won at Indianapolis on Dec. 27, giving the Colts their first loss of 2009 and preserving the uniqueness of the 1972 Miami Dolphins' perfect season. That was the first time the teams had met since 2006, when the Jets lost a close one at home. They haven't met in the playoffs since January 2003, when New York whipped the visiting Colts in the wild–card round, 41–0. That game, however, was played in the Meadowlands. This one will be played in Indianapolis. Clearly, the home crowd will be a factor in the game, and, even though I don't expect the fans to have to face bone–chilling weather outside the stadium, I expect lots of noise once they take their seats. But that is only part of the story. It seems to me that the greatest challenge the Colts will face is trying to stop the Jets' ground game. The Jets have one of the NFL's best rushing attacks, and I'm inclined to think the Colts will need to force the Jets into numerous third–and–long situations to shut them down. The key for the Jets? Contain Manning. He has some talent around him, but when he isn't clicking, the Colts can be stopped. I'm not sure which team will be better off today because Manning didn't play on the day the Jets handed the Colts their first loss of the season. Of the three teams that received a bye and then won their first playoff games, the Colts seemed the least polished on offense. Perhaps that was due to the Ravens' defense. Maybe it was indicative of some weakness that most of the Colts' foes did not exploit sufficiently. Indy won a lot of close games this year. My advice to the Jets would be to remain level–headed, no matter what the score may be. I'd really like to see the Jets go to the Super Bowl, but I have a feeling that the Colts will instead.


• Minnesota Vikings (13–4) at New Orleans Saints (14–3) — The last time Minnesota played in New Orleans was Monday, Oct. 6, 2008. The Vikings rallied for a 30–27 win. In fact, you have to go back to Oct. 7, 2001, to find the Saints' last win over the Vikings in New Orleans. But you may need to look no further than your TV this evening to see New Orleans' next home triumph over Minnesota. I'm sure the folks in the Big Easy are eager to see the Saints advance to the Super Bowl. That would be a first for them, and that would be their reward for winning today's game. But it's been more than 30 years since the Vikings were in a Super Bowl. They've come close a couple of times, but they haven't played in the NFL's showcase game since January 1977. Whoever wins today's game will be an unfamiliar Super Bowl entrant for most people, to be sure. As the road team in today's NFC championship game, I think a key to Minnesota's success may not necessarily be Favre's arm. He's had a remarkable season for a 40–year–old man, and I doubt that anyone would quibble with his reputation as one of the great quarterbacks of his era. But I think that the most effective weapon a visiting team can have in the playoffs, especially when the home crowd is likely to be as boisterous as the one in the Superdome this afternoon, is a strong running game. It may not always have been clear to observers this year because the offensive spotlight hasn't been on Adrian Peterson in every game, but he remains one of the most potent running backs in pro football. If the Vikings keep the ball in his hands — and save the passing game until it is needed — they can wear down the Saints' defense, which is better against the pass than the run, and they can take the crowd out of the contest. The Saints have a good running game, too, with Reggie Bush in the backfield, but their quick–strike potential can do more than put points on the board. It can whip the fans into a frenzy, and it can demoralize Minnesota's defense — which, it should be pointed out, was one of the league's best. The Vikings may be able to neutralize New Orleans' passing game if they can get to Drew Brees and sack him early, perhaps forcing him to play more tentatively. If that happens, the Saints will have a solid ground game to rely on, but I see the passing game as being what keeps the fans in the Superdome involved in the contest this afternoon. Anyway, those are the keys to this game, in my view — the Minnesota ground game and the New Orleans air attack. The outcome may be as close as it was when the teams faced each other during the 2008 season, but I'll pick the Saints to win this time.

Last week: 2–2.

Playoffs: 3–5.

And Then There Were Four

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A few days ago, I wrote that I expected at least one of the pro football teams that got a bye in the first week of the playoffs to lose in the divisional round. In fact, one team did lose, but it wasn't the one I predicted.

Actually, I am inclined to believe that few, if any, observers expected what happened.

The first three playoff games of the weekend were won by teams that got a bye — which, by definition, means the home team. The winners on Saturday, New Orleans and Indianapolis, were undefeated until December. Neither is undefeated now, but Indianapolis, which won its first 14 games, seemed almost determined to rid itself of the expectations of perfection that many people believed worked against the New England Patriots a couple of years ago. New Orleans wasn't much better. Once both teams had clinched home field through the conference playoffs, they played their regulars sparingly and made it clear that their focus had shifted to the playoffs.

As a result, the Saints and the Colts entered the weekend saddled with losing streaks. Indy had lost two in a row and hadn't won at home since Dec. 13. New Orleans had lost three in a row and hadn't won at home since November.

I predicted that the Colts, who were facing a Baltimore Ravens team they barely beat in Week 11, would stumble. But, after the way Arizona held off a spirited Green Bay team on wild–card weekend, it wouldn't have surprised me if the Saints had taken it on the chin.

Frankly, I wouldn't have been shocked if both teams had fallen. But neither team did.

Then, yesterday, the Dallas Cowboys played the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings struggled in December while the Cowboys established a reputation as perhaps the hottest team in the NFC, becoming the first team to knock off the Saints, then ending the regular season with a win for the first time in 10 years and then winning a playoff game for the first time since 1996.

Consequently, there were probably more than a few NFL fans who thought the Cowboys might upend the Vikings and Brett Favre. But the Vikings, like the Saints and the Colts the day before, rolled to an easy victory.

Of all four of the weekend's playoff games, Sunday's nightcap may have been the one most NFL fans figured was a foregone conclusion. It matched the visiting New York Jets, who have surprised many fans this season, and the San Diego Chargers, who came into the game having won 11 in a row.

Until the fourth quarter, it looked like the Chargers would hang on and win the game, but it was not to be. The Jets won that final quarter, 14–3, and won the game, 17–10, setting up a rematch of their Dec. 27 game with the Colts. On that day, the Jets handed the Colts their first loss of the season. The Colts had already secured home field and had nothing left to play for. The Jets didn't officially clinch a wild–card berth that day — but they may have done so mentally.

This time, the winner goes to the Super Bowl.

As I observed prior to the kickoff of wild–card weekend, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have featured a team that did not get the opening–round bye. On four of those occasions, the team that didn't get the bye won it all.

Does that mean the Jets will continue their improbable playoff run with a win over the Colts on Sunday, perhaps followed by a victory in the Super Bowl?

I'll be addressing that here later this week!

Bye Bye?

Last week, I wrote that getting the first–round bye in the NFL playoffs can be as much a curse as a blessing.

I believe that. And I believe we will see some proof of that this weekend. The teams to keep your eyes on — the teams that got the byes this year — are New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota and San Diego.

At least one of those teams will fall this weekend. Mark my words.

SATURDAY

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• Arizona (11–6) at New Orleans (13–3) — The last time Arizona played in the Louisiana Superdome was on Dec. 16, 2007. Neither team advanced to the playoffs that year, but the Saints won their encounter, 31–24. That's the only time since Hurricane Katrina that the teams have faced each other. Truthfully, the teams haven't met very often in recent years so it is necessary to look for other factors that could influence the outcome: (1) Arizona is coming off a hard–fought overtime win over Green Bay last Sunday. Will the Cardinals be exhilarated or exhausted? (2) New Orleans hasn't won at home since beating New England on Nov. 30. (3) Saints quarterback Drew Brees has received a lot of attention this season, and he clearly has been crucial to the Saints' success, but, statistically, the Cardinals have the NFL's top offense, its second–best passing game and its fifth–best rushing attack. (4) On the other side of the ball, Arizona's overall defense, its pass defense and its run defense rank second only to Dallas among teams that are still active in the NFC. Nevertheless, Steve Wyche of NFL.com says the intangibles, like home field and a week to rest and regroup, are in the Saints' favor. And John DeShazier of the New Orleans Times–Picayune writes that, if the Saints truly want to be the best team in the NFL, there may be no better way to prove it than by beating the defending NFC champs. It wasn't so long ago that the very thought of either the Saints or the Cardinals even being in the playoffs was laughable, but it isn't so laughable now. One of them will play in their second NFC championship game in the last four years. Which will it be? That's a tough call for me, but, by the narrowest of margins, I'll pick the Saints.

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• Baltimore (10–7) at Indianapolis (14–2) — For the second consecutive week, the Ravens will be playing a team that beat them during the regular season. The Colts barely got by the Ravens on November 22, 17–15, but that game was played in Baltimore. The last time the teams met in Indianapolis was Oct. 12, 2008, when the Colts hammered the Ravens, 31–3. Actually, the Colts have won seven in a row against the Ravens (including a playoff game the year they beat the Bears in the Super Bowl). The Ravens haven't beaten the Colts since Dec. 2, 2001, and some people don't think they will snap that losing streak, in part because Baltimore was much better at home than on the road this year. Nevertheless, the Ravens whipped New England on the road last weekend, and there are some folks, like Bucky Brooks of NFL.com, who think Baltimore's running game, led by Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, can make the difference. At the very least, he concedes it is the running game that not only has kept Baltimore's season going but is responsible for the continued presence in the postseason of the Jets and Cowboys as well. Statistically, the Ravens did have the best running game in the NFL. They were the only squad that averaged more than 200 rushing yards per game, and fans must wonder if Indy can keep up with them. Pat Kirwan, Brooks' colleague at NFL.com, openly wonders if the Colts can stop the Ravens' offensive line. I wonder that, too, but, ultimately, that isn't the issue, is it? The linemen may do their job, but the running backs are the ones who have to make the moves, break tackles and turn up the speed when called for. Baltimore's running attack really has emerged since the Indianapolis game. Last time, as Kirwan points out, the Ravens never scored a touchdown against the Colts with an offense that threw the ball more than ran it. The Ravens settled for five field goals and missed a sixth that would have won the game. The objective needs to be different this time. The Ravens have to get the ball into the end zone, and the ground game seems to be in a better position to produce that kind of result — along with the added benefit of keeping Indy's offense off the field. The Colts are 24th in the NFL in defending the run; they can be had. Another factor in this game is the bye. The Colts haven't won a game since Dec. 17, and they haven't beaten a playoff team since that game with the Ravens nearly two months ago. I believe phoning in their last two games and then taking last week off will work against them. Some people say Dallas or San Diego are the hottest teams in the playoffs right now, but Baltimore could be a plausible candidate for that title. The Ravens have emerged the winners of must–win games to get into and then advance in the playoffs. They have plenty of momentum and a running game that could wear down the Colts. I'll take the Ravens.

SUNDAY

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• Dallas (12–5) at Minnesota (12–4) — This may be the game that NFL fans have anticipated the most this week. The teams last faced each other in Dallas on Oct. 21, 2007; the Cowboys won, 24–14. The last time they met in Minnesota was Sept. 12, 2004; the Vikings won that one, 35–17. The last time the road team won was on Nov. 23, 2000, when Minnesota won in Dallas, 27–15. The teams didn't meet in the playoffs for the first time until 1971, but it became almost an annual thing in the 1970s as they faced each other four times between 1971 and 1977. They have only played twice in the postseason since that time, with Dallas winning in 1996 and Minnesota winning in 1999. Well, that's all in the past. What does the immediate future hold? Let's go back to the recent past for just a moment. The Vikings signed Brett Favre last summer, thinking he could provide the leadership the team needed to get to the Super Bowl, and, in spite of a bit of a late–season slump, he's come through. When the season started and Favre was learning Minnesota's system, there was a tendency for the team to rely on halfback Adrian Peterson. As the season progressed, though, the Vikings evolved from primarily a running team to more of a passing team — in the last two games of the regular season, Favre threw for more than 300 yards in each game while Peterson did not crack 100 yards in rushing. So, while Favre ended the season behind Dallas' Tony Romo in the passing rankings, he's been following an upward trajectory, perhaps at Peterson's expense, but as long as Peterson is in the lineup, Dallas can't afford to focus exclusively on Favre and Minnesota's aerial attack. Not to be forgotten is the fact that the Vikings went 8–0 at home. If New Orleans beats Arizona, the winner of this game will have to travel to the Big Easy next week, but this week, as Sid Hartman observes in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, home field is truly an advantage for the Vikings. It should be interesting — and challenging for the Cowboys. In the end, though, I'll go with the home team.

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• New York Jets (10–7) at San Diego (13–3) — Perhaps the only thing you need to know about this matchup is that it has been nearly three months since San Diego lost a football game. That was against Denver on Oct. 19. Here's something else that might be helpful. The last time the Jets played in San Diego was Sept. 22, 2008. The Jets had Brett Favre calling the signals, but that didn't deter the Chargers, who rolled to a 48–29 victory. That's the only win the Chargers have recorded in four meetings with the Jets in the last 15 years — and it came when the Jets had the only Hall of Fame quarterback they've had in their lineup since Joe Namath was on the roster. It's tempting to believe that, until last weekend, the Jets hadn't won a playoff game since Namath was calling the signals. But it only seems that way. The Jets won wild–card games following the 2004 and 2002 seasons, they won a divisional playoff in January 1999, and they won some playoff games in the 1980s, but they've only gone as far as the AFC championship game since their lone Super Bowl appearance more than 40 years ago. The Chargers haven't been much more successful. They lost the only Super Bowl they've ever played in 15 years ago, and they lost in their only AFC championship appearance since then (they only played in two others since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970). But these Chargers are the definition of hot. It is unfortunate for the Jets to have drawn them. If the Ravens had lost to the Patriots, as everyone expected, the Jets would be playing in Indianapolis this weekend and the Pats would have the unenviable task of playing the Chargers. If the Jets and Ravens win this weekend, that would set up the absolutely final game in Giants Stadium, with the AFC title on the line. But I don't think the Jets have the horses to pull it off. I think the Chargers will win.

Playoffs: 1–3.

Will Colts or Saints Go Undefeated?

At this point in the season, I guess everyone is wondering if the Indianapolis Colts and/or the New Orleans Saints will go undefeated?

From what I have been able to gather, my guess is that the Saints are more likely to go undefeated than the Colts are.

That doesn't mean I think the Saints would beat the Colts if the two teams advance to the Super Bowl. I make that assertion, primarily, because the Colts' management has expressed a desire to put the well–being of the first–teamers ahead of the ego–stroking achievement of a perfect record.

That approach makes sense to me. The Colts have clinched their division title and, along with it, homefield advantage through the playoffs. The only reason to play the starters at all in the final three games is to keep them sharp for the playoffs.

The Saints are nearly to that point, but it still would be possible for the Vikings to overtake them — possible, not probable. Another New Orleans win, coupled with a Minnesota loss, would put New Orleans in position to choose between playing for perfection or resting the starters. That's a choice that would be pretty easy to make with Tampa Bay and Carolina on the schedule for the last two weeks.

Once seedings are settled in the NFC, New Orleans may be more inclined to let the first–teamers have some time off. Until then, I expect them to be going at it full tilt.

In short, if you play fantasy football, I recommend that you find replacements for your Colts but plan to play your Saints — until further notice!

We're down to three weeks in the NFL, and some truths are emerging.

1. Three teams are definitely in the playoffs — Indianapolis, Minnesota and New Orleans.


2. Three teams are almost in the playoffs — defending NFC champ Arizona, San Diego and Cincinnati. The Cardinals could have clinched their division on Monday night, but their loss to the 49ers keeps things in doubt in the NFC West for another week at least.


3. At this point, it would probably take a miracle to get the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers back into the Super Bowl. That's what a five–game losing streak can do to a team.


4. Of the teams that are still in the running, more AFC teams appear to still have a shot at the playoffs than NFC teams.

THURSDAY

• Indianapolis (13–0) at Jacksonville (7–6) — If the Colts go undefeated this season, they will do so in spite of some narrow escapes. One of the most narrow came on Opening Day, when the AFC South rival Jaguars came to town and left with a 14–12 loss. In the weeks that followed, the Colts barely beat Miami (27–23), San Francisco (18–14), Houston (20–17), New England (35–34) and Baltimore (17–15). Now the Colts have a rematch with the Jaguars. Indy's coaches and players apparently care more about having a healthy squad for the playoffs than going 16–0. Now that they have locked up home field through the playoffs, the starters may well be rested extensively in the last three regular–season games — and that may benefit the Jaguars, who face a real challenge for a wild–card berth. Assuming the Colts give Peyton Manning and the rest of the first–teamers the day off, I'll pick Jacksonville to win.

SATURDAY

• Dallas (8–5) at New Orleans (13–0) — The Cowboys haven't enjoyed any success against the Saints in this decade. The last time these teams met was in 2006, when the Saints came to Dallas and snapped the Cowboys' four–game winning streak, 42–17. Two years earlier, the Saints came to Dallas and left with a 27–13 win. You have to go back to 2003 to find the last time the Cowboys played in New Orleans (that, too, was a loss — 13–7 — in the regular–season finale). On Christmas Eve in 1999, Dallas lost, 31–24, in New Orleans. The year before that, they lost a 22–3 decision in New Orleans. In fact, it is necessary to go back to 1994 — Barry Switzer's first year at the helm — to find Dallas' last win over New Orleans (24–16). Not too long ago, the Cowboys looked like a sure thing for the playoffs — but we've been down this road before. I'll pick the Saints.

SUNDAY

• Cleveland (2–11) at Kansas City (3–10) — This game has no real meaning. It will be the fourth time the teams have met since Cleveland resumed its pro football participation in 1999. Two of the games have been close, and the last two have been won by the home team. The Browns won a 31–28 decision in Cleveland in 2006. In 2003, the Chiefs won in Kansas City, 41–20. In 2002, the Chiefs won in Cleveland, 40–39. Neither team has much of an offense (Kansas City is 30th in the NFL, Cleveland is 32nd), and neither team has much of a defense (Kansas City is 30th, Cleveland is 31st). Gotta pick someone so I'll go with the home team — the Chiefs — by a couple of points.


• Arizona (8–5) at Detroit (2–11) — The Cardinals blew their chance to wrap up the NFC West on Monday night. Of course, it's damn near impossible to win a game when you commit seven turnovers. Now San Francisco holds an undisputed tiebreaker over Arizona, having swept the season series, and can win the division if they finished tied for first, but the 49ers will have to run the table, which is a tall order since they must travel to Philadelphia this weekend (although they do face Detroit and St. Louis in the last two games). The Cardinals can clinch the West if they beat Detroit this week and the 49ers lose to the Eagles. Even if San Francisco pulls off the upset against Philadelphia, beating Detroit this week and St. Louis next week would wrap up the division for Arizona. On the other hand, if the 49ers run the table and the Cardinals stumble against either the Lions or the Rams, Arizona will face a must–win situation in the season finale against red–hot Green Bay. For now, I'll pick Arizona to beat Detroit — and put some pressure on San Francisco.


• San Francisco (6–7) at Philadelphia (9–4) — The Eagles must be feeling like Rodney Dangerfield. They've taken the lead in the NFC East, and Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News writes that they're fun to watch but not worthy of a title. Michael Lombardi of NFL.com isn't so sure about that. Historically, the 49ers enjoy a 16–10–1 advantage over the Eagles, but Philly has won the last three regular–season contests and hasn't lost to the 49ers since 2003. To top it off, the Eagles are 4–2 at home while the 49ers are 1–5 on the road. I'll take the Eagles.


• Atlanta (6–7) at New York Jets (7–6) — They say that defense wins championships, and the Jets have the top–rated team defense, as well as the top–rated pass defense, in the NFL. The Jets also hold a three–game winning streak (whereas the Falcons have lost two straight). I'll take the Jets.


• Miami (7–6) at Tennessee (6–7) — It's probably a longshot for Tennessee to get into the playoffs now, even though they ripped the Rams to shreds last weekend. There are five teams ahead of them in the race for two wild–card slots, including Miami. To be in the playoff picture, even as pretenders, the Titans need to make a statement against the Dolphins this weekend. The good news for the Titans is that home field has been kind to teams in this series, and statistics seem to be on their side, too. Tennessee's team offense is 10th in the NFL (Miami's is 18th), and, even though Miami's defense is ranked higher than Tennessee's, it's nearly a draw in that category (the Dolphins are 19th in the NFL, the Titans are 23rd). I'll take the Titans.


• New England (8–5) at Buffalo (5–8) — Few teams have dominated another as completely as New England has dominated Buffalo in this decade. The Patriots have won 17 of the last 18 regular–season games, and the Patriots haven't lost to the Bills since Sept. 7, 2003 (the last time they lost at home was two days before the 2000 presidential election). Buffalo is 2–4 at home, but New England is a pathetic 1–5 on the road (the exception was the Patriots' win at Tampa Bay in October). The Bills only lost by a single point when they traveled to New England on Opening Day. What will happen when the teams play in Buffalo this Sunday (weather forecast — 30% chance of snow with a high of 30°)? I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Buffalo will top the Patriots this Sunday.


• Chicago (5–8) at Baltimore (7–6) — I'm not sure if Chicago was mathematically eliminated from playoff contention when the Bears lost to the Packers last weekend, but if not, it won't take much. The Ravens, however, still have a shot at a wild card, which ought to give them plenty of motivation. At this stage of the season, playoff prospects trump everything else when it comes to motivation; since the Ravens are still in the running and the Bears are not, I'll pick the Ravens.


• Houston (6–7) at St. Louis (1–12) — Houston probably has no chance of getting into the playoffs, but the Texans ought to handle the Rams with no real problem. Houston has a higher–ranked team offense (eighth in the NFL, compared to 25th for St. Louis) and team defense (13th in the NFL, compared to 27th for the Rams). The Rams also have lost five in a row since their only win of the season (a seven–point decision over Detroit) at the start of November. The teams have only met once, with the Rams winning in overtime in 2005. I'll pick the Texans to even the series and remain (at least mathematically) in the playoff race.

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• Oakland (4–9) at Denver (8–5) — As terrible as the Raiders are, they did beat the Broncos the last time they played in Denver. The Broncos have the third–rated defense in the NFL (the Raiders are 28th), which shouldn't face much of a challenge against the next–to–worst offense in the NFL. I'll take Denver.

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• Cincinnati (9–4) at San Diego (10–3) — This is probably the NFL's marquee matchup. The winner will be the odds–on favorite to get a first–round bye with the Colts. And it is possible these teams will face each other in the playoffs, but even if the Bengals win this Sunday and earn homefield advantage, I doubt it will be as cold for a playoff rematch in Cincinnati as it was when the teams squared off there for the AFC title in 1981. Nevertheless, the weather shouldn't be a factor in sunny San Diego this Sunday. The recent history of this series says a team wins two straight, then the other team wins. The Chargers won their last meeting (in 2006) but lost to the Bengals in 2004 and 2003. The Chargers won in 2002 and 2001. Based on that, I would give the edge to San Diego, but there's more evidence on the Chargers' side. In team offense, they're ranked 14th in the NFL (compared to 20th for the Bengals), although Cincinnati has the edge in team defense (the Bengals are fifth in the NFL while the Chargers are 12th). The Chargers, though, are red hot, and I'll pick them to win and remain on course for a first–round bye.


• Tampa Bay (1–12) at Seattle (5–8) — I guess the intriguing angle of this particular matchup is the fact that these two teams came into existence at the same time, in 1976. Recent history has favored the home team, but this series goes in streaks. Is it time for a streak that favors the visitors? Last year, the Bucs beat the Seahawks in Tampa, 20–10. The teams met in Seattle on Opening Day in 2007, and the Seahawks won that game, 20–6. The last time the road team won was in 2006, when Seattle won at Tampa, 23–7. Seattle also won at Tampa in 2004, 10–6. And, 10 years ago, Tampa upended Seattle on the road, 16–3. I'll go with the prevailing streak and pick the Seahawks.


• Green Bay (9–4) at Pittsburgh (6–7) — This game would have had greater playoff implications if the Steelers hadn't lost last week to Cleveland, prompting Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post–Gazette to proclaim the defending Super Bowl champs "losers." That's a conclusion that is difficult to disagree with, given the fact that Pittsburgh has lost to Cleveland, Oakland and Kansas City in its current five–game losing skid. I'll go with the hot team from the frozen tundra — the Packers.


• Minnesota (11–2) at Carolina (5–8) — The series with Minnesota hasn't been pleasant for Carolina in recent years — for several reasons. Last year, the Vikings hosted the Panthers and won, 20–10. In 2006, Carolina lost, 16–13, again in Minneapolis. In 2005, Carolina beat Minnesota in Charlotte, N.C., 38–13, and made the playoffs but lost to Seattle in the NFC championship game. In 2002, Carolina beat Minnesota in the third game of the season to improve to 3–0 but then lapsed into an eight–game losing streak that ultimately landed the Panthers in last place in the NFC South. Things were even worse for Carolina in 2001. The Panthers opened the season with a win over the Vikings but went on to lose the rest of their games and finished the season 1–15. This year, it looks like the Vikings are poised to win their third straight over the Panthers. Team stats certainly support that position. Minnesota is sixth in the NFL in team offense (Carolina is 21st) and sixth in the NFL in team defense (Carolina is 15th). I pick the Vikings to win — and clinch the NFC North.

MONDAY

• New York Giants (7–6) at Washington (4–9) — Filip Bondy of the New York Daily News writes that, after Sunday night's game, Philadelphia owns the Giants. Good thing for New York the season series with the Eagles is over — unless they happen to meet again in the playoffs. But what about woeful Washington? Well, the Giants have won 13 of 19 regular–season contests with the Redskins since the 2000 season, including their game at the Meadowlands earlier this season. But that was then — back when New York jumped to a 5–0 start. They've lost six of their last eight, and, even if they complete the sweep of the Redskins, they are going to need some help to get to the playoffs. I'll pick the Giants to beat the Redskins, but we'll see how things shape up in the final two weeks.

Last week: 13–3.

Season: 153–57.