Thanks For the Memories, Earl

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I guess everyone knows about the 1972 Miami Dolphins — the only team in modern pro football history to go undefeated through the regular season and the postseason.

Fewer people remember that more than half of those wins were accomplished without the Dolphins' star quarterback, Bob Griese, who went down with a broken leg and dislocated ankle in the fifth game of the season. He was replaced by backup Earl Morrall, who had recently been picked up on the waiver wire after being released by the Baltimore Colts.

Miami's coach, Don Shula, had been Morrall's coach for a time in Baltimore. They had been in Super Bowl III, which the Colts lost to the New York Jets. Shula knew precisely what he was getting when he picked up Morrall. Possibly no backup quarterback has ever stepped in as the substitute for the starter better equipped to run his coach's offense and succeed.

In fact, Morrall wound up leading the AFC in passing, just as Griese had the year before — in spite of throwing only one pass in the first four games.

He started the last nine games of the 1972 regular season and the first two games of the playoffs while Griese recovered. It wasn't always as easy as it may seem today; they struggled at times, but the Dolphins won all those games.

They hung on to beat Buffalo by a single point the week after Griese went down. They beat the Jets by four points in the 10th game, and they barely got past a mediocre Cleveland Browns team in the playoffs. Griese returned to the lineup in the second half of the AFC championship game, then led the Dolphins to the Super Bowl title.

He was on a third Super Bowl team as well. He was still on Miami's roster the next year when the Dolphins defended their title in Super Bowl VIII.

I remember having Morrall's football card and not knowing who he was. There were some players who were like that. I only knew their names because I had their cards. It wasn't until years later that I learned Morrall had been the quarterback of the Colts team that lost to Broadway Joe Namath and the Jets. I knew who Namath was, of course. Who didn't?

That was a good Colts team, too. Before facing the Jets, the Colts lost only one game. In a year when most teams were equally balanced between the run and the pass, Morrall completed more than 57% of his passes for nearly 3,000 yards.

Anyway, Morrall died Thursday at the age of 79. The news was confirmed today. From what I have heard, he had been in poor health for awhile.

He played pro football in relative obscurity for more than two decades. In those two Super Bowl seasons, with the sports world watching his every move, he led his teams to a combined record of 24–2.

He died in relative obscurity, too. I'm sure there were many young people across the country who didn't know who he was when they heard of his death.

The historian in me would like to think that someday football fans will re–discover the rich history of their sport — and Morrall's contributions to it.

But the realist in me doubts that will ever happen.

Namath's Guarantee

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On this day 45 years ago, Broadway Joe Namath made good on his famous guarantee, and Namath's underdog New York Jets became the first members of the old AFL to win the Super Bowl, defeating the Baltimore Colts, 16–7.

It was also the first time that the name Super Bowl was used officially.

Before the game, there was a widely held belief that the AFL was inferior to the NFL in every possible way. Baltimore was favored by 18 points — and that was surely seen by many as too few. The Colts, they would have told you, were certain to beat the Jets by more than that. They had outscored their opponents by more than 18 points in more than half of their regular–season games that year (and came within a point of an 18–point victory margin in three other games), and they had won the NFL championship two weeks earlier by nearly five touchdowns.

And, with a defense that was coached by future Hall of Famer Chuck Noll and featured players like Bubba Smith, Billy Ray Smith and Mike Curtis, it was easy to imagine the upstart Jets being manhandled as the Chiefs and Raiders had been in the previous two Super Bowls.

The AFL began to gain some grudging acceptance when the Jets managed to sign Namath, who played his college ball at Alabama for Bear Bryant. In fact, it was due in large part to Namath's decision that the NFL agreed to merge with the AFL a few years later. The NFL feared bidding wars for the top collegiate talent and felt that bringing the AFL into the fold and subjecting its teams to the annual draft would prevent such wars from happening.

The merging of the two leagues didn't happen until 1970, more than a year after Namath's Jets beat the Colts in what has come to be regarded as one of sports' greatest upsets.

Namath's guarantee was the result, perhaps inevitably, of accumulated frustration from suggestions that the AFL was inferior. Some analysts had suggested that, if they had played in the NFL, the Jets would not have qualified for the playoffs, let alone made it to the Super Bowl.

Three days before the game, Namath appeared at the Miami Touchdown Club. A belligerent Colts fan heckled Namath and taunted him with claims that the Jets would lose. Exasperated (and intoxicated), Namath said, "We're gonna win the game. I guarantee it."

Without question, there have been times — in the histories of all sports — when players for one team believed they didn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning a certain game. Sometimes it happens in championship games.

On this day 45 years ago, there might even have been a few Jets players who believed they would lose to the mighty Colts. But Joe Namath was not one of them.

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The year before he led the Jets to the Super Bowl, Namath was the first pro quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards, and he is still the only one to accomplish the feat in a 14–game regular season.

Ironically, Namath was the MVP of Super Bowl III in spite of the fact that he didn't throw a touchdown pass in the game. In fact, he didn't attempt a single pass in the final quarter.

2003: A Juice Odyssey

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Forty years ago today, my father was finishing up his sabbatical in Nashville, and my family was about to return to my hometown in Arkansas.

I remember that my brother and I had just finished school and been dismissed for the Christmas holiday, and we had been withdrawn from school by my mother. We would enroll in school for the spring term in my hometown in January.

Most of our furniture (except for our beds) was rented because we knew we would only be there four months, but we had many personal possessions to pack.

The plan was to leave Nashville around Monday or Tuesday, drive home and unload all our personal possessions, then (after returning the U–Haul trailer) hit the road for Dallas to spend Christmas with my grandmothers.

We were making progress in packing our things, but on this day, which was a Sunday in 1973, we stopped what we were doing to watch O.J. Simpson of the Buffalo Bills try to do what no one had ever been able to do before — run for 2,000 yards in a season.

Actually, the emphasis was on setting a single–season rushing record. Finishing the season with 2,000 yards was viewed, right up to kickoff, as a still possible but far from probable outcome.

No matter how it may seem from the perspective of 40 years later, Simpson needed nearly 200 yards in the final game of the season to make it to 2,000. He had done that before during the 1973 season but not in his earlier match with the New York Jets, one of the Bills' division rivals and their opponent that day. Two hundred yards didn't seem a realistic goal. His realistic objective that day was to pass the legendary Jim Brown, who ran for 1,863 yards in a single season 10 years earlier.

Simpson needed only 60 yards to match Brown, and common sense said he could get that with ease. Simpson ran for twice as many yards when the teams met back in the third week of the season. Only the defending Super Bowl champion Miami Dolphins and their no–name defense had held Simpson to fewer than 60 yards in a game.

Momentum was clearly on Simpson's side. He had run for more than 100 yards in each of the last four games (would have been five, but he fell a single yard short against the Cincinnati Bengals in mid–November).

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As I say, he needed nearly 200 yards to break the 2,000–yard barrier, and most observers dismissed that as unrealistic. True, he had run for more than 200 yards the week before, but that was against another division rival, the New England Patriots, and Simpson had run for more than 200 yards against the Patriots in the season opener as well — but he hadn't managed to do it against anyone else.

In a steady snowfall, it was clear early that Simpson would set a new single–season rushing record. The next obvious question was whether he could reach the barrier of 2,000 yards against the Jets, who were 4–9.

Simpson was more dramatic on that one, going down to the wire before finally notching his 2,000th yard late in the fourth quarter of the last regular–season game.

The argument can be made that the Jets had nothing for which to play, but the same could be said of the Bills.

And, mind you, I make no excuses for anything Simpson may have done since his playing career ended. Forty years ago, he was the hottest thing in football, virtually the Johnny Football of his day. Whatever role he may or may not have played in the murders of his ex–wife and her friend and the crimes of which he was convicted in Nevada, they were still more than 20 years in the future.

Others have broken that 2,000–yard barrier since then. But Simpson is the only one to achieve it in 14 games. All the others ran for 2,000–plus yards in 16–game seasons.

O.J.'s is an accomplishment that may never be duplicated.

It Ain't Over Until It's Over

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Yogi Berra was credited with saying "It ain't over until it's over."

Yogi played — and then managed — in major league baseball, but the saying is appropriate for football, too.

It certainly was appropriate 45 years ago today.

On this day in 1968, the New York Jets and the Oakland Raiders were playing a football game. Joe Namath and the Jets went on to play in — and win — the Super Bowl in January. And, late in the game that was played 45 years ago today, it sure looked like the Jets were going to beat the Raiders.

Except that they didn't.

It had been a back–and–forth affair in Oakland that day, but, with 1:05 remaining, the Jets took a three–point lead. Worried NBC executives cut away from the game, and the network began its regularly scheduled broadcast of a made–for–TV movie that was based on the children's book "Heidi."

What happened next changed the relationship between professional football and television.

The Raiders scored not one but two improbable touchdowns and won the game, 43–32. The western half of the United States saw the full game; the eastern half was watching a little girl on a Swiss mountain and had no idea the Raiders had won.

"Television missed one of football's most exciting and exhausting minutes of emotion," wrote Bob Valli in the Oakland Tribune. "In that minute, Oakland fans saw despair turn to delirium."

Football fans were enraged when they learned what they missed. Viewers who tuned in for the movie were enraged when NBC ran the score on the screen in the middle of one of the movie's most dramatic moments. "Short of pre–empting Heidi for a skin flick," wrote sportswriter Jack Clary, "NBC could not have managed to alienate more viewers that evening."

As a result, television changed its football broadcast policy.

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Future contracts would include explicit language pledging that all games would be shown to their completion. If a game ran long, regularly scheduled programming would be delayed.

NBC implemented that policy immediately. It is standard procedure with all commercial networks today.

To its credit, NBC poked fun at itself over the incident. Three weeks later, when the network was scheduled to show "Pinocchio" on a Sunday night, NBC's promotional advertising showed Pinocchio assuring football fans that he would rather cut off his nose than "have them cut off" the game before it was over.

And a week after that, when a game ran late, NBC announced that the regularly scheduled program, an episode of The New Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, would be delayed.

Where Is Peyton's Place?

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Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts announced this week that they were parting ways ...

... which launched a mad scramble among all but a handful of the NFL teams for his services.

Some teams are more serious contenders than others, but there is no doubt that most of the teams in the NFL could use a quarterback. He wouldn't have to be a surefire Hall of Famer ... but, hey, as long as Peyton Manning isn't doing anything, anyway ...

ESPN reports that sources are saying Manning will make up his mind in the next few days. A dozen teams have made overtures to Manning's representatives — of those, ESPN says Arizona, Seattle, Washington, Miami, Kansas City, Denver and the New York Jets have been in direct contact with them.

But Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News writes that Manning isn't interested in playing for the Redskins.

And, even though he admits Manning in a Broncos uniform is "difficult to envision," I get the feeling that Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post would like to see it happen.

But he says there are at least three reasons why it isn't likely:

1. "Broncos coach John Fox plus Manning equals a bad mix."


2. "Pat Bowlen would rather let some other franchise owner bet millions on Manning's health."


3. "Deep down, [John] Elway realizes Denver is closer to being a 6–10 team than a 10–6 team."
   
   Kiszla doesn't argue that Manning is not one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play in the NFL. He just points out there are more pressing needs for a franchise that apparently wants to rebuild the foundation that took it to five Super Bowls when Elway was the field general.

At this point, I suppose, it really is anyone's guess where Manning will wind up.

Common sense says some teams are more likely than others — Green Bay and New Orleans, for instance, are surely out of the running — but there are still some intriguing possibilities out there.

For example, it would be very interesting if Manning signed with the Jets. Then he would be in competition with his multiple Super Bowl–winning brother Eli for the affections of the Big Apple's football fans.

I have a good friend who would undoubtedly like to see Manning in a Kansas City uniform. Don't be too quick to dismiss the notion, either. The Chiefs do have something of a history of signing castoff quarterbacks — remember when Joe Montana took them to the AFC championship after being let go by San Francisco?

The Cardinals have been even more successful. They signed Kurt Warner after he left the Rams — and Warner took the Cardinals to the Super Bowl.

The only thing I'm sure of, at this point, is that someone will sign Manning. I just don't know who.

Stay tuned.

Who's Going to the Super Bowl?

I think most people are probably pulling for Brett Favre and Peyton Manning today.

And I guess I can live with that, but, personally, I'm pulling for their opponents.

Keep in mind, I didn't say that neither Favre nor Manning would advance to the Super Bowl. They may both win today.

One thing seems to be sure. Win or lose, both will wind up in the Hall of Fame eventually. What is unknown, at least at this stage, is whether either or both will be in Miami in two weeks.

• New York Jets (11–7) at Indianapolis Colts (15–2) — As I have pointed out before, the Jets won at Indianapolis on Dec. 27, giving the Colts their first loss of 2009 and preserving the uniqueness of the 1972 Miami Dolphins' perfect season. That was the first time the teams had met since 2006, when the Jets lost a close one at home. They haven't met in the playoffs since January 2003, when New York whipped the visiting Colts in the wild–card round, 41–0. That game, however, was played in the Meadowlands. This one will be played in Indianapolis. Clearly, the home crowd will be a factor in the game, and, even though I don't expect the fans to have to face bone–chilling weather outside the stadium, I expect lots of noise once they take their seats. But that is only part of the story. It seems to me that the greatest challenge the Colts will face is trying to stop the Jets' ground game. The Jets have one of the NFL's best rushing attacks, and I'm inclined to think the Colts will need to force the Jets into numerous third–and–long situations to shut them down. The key for the Jets? Contain Manning. He has some talent around him, but when he isn't clicking, the Colts can be stopped. I'm not sure which team will be better off today because Manning didn't play on the day the Jets handed the Colts their first loss of the season. Of the three teams that received a bye and then won their first playoff games, the Colts seemed the least polished on offense. Perhaps that was due to the Ravens' defense. Maybe it was indicative of some weakness that most of the Colts' foes did not exploit sufficiently. Indy won a lot of close games this year. My advice to the Jets would be to remain level–headed, no matter what the score may be. I'd really like to see the Jets go to the Super Bowl, but I have a feeling that the Colts will instead.


• Minnesota Vikings (13–4) at New Orleans Saints (14–3) — The last time Minnesota played in New Orleans was Monday, Oct. 6, 2008. The Vikings rallied for a 30–27 win. In fact, you have to go back to Oct. 7, 2001, to find the Saints' last win over the Vikings in New Orleans. But you may need to look no further than your TV this evening to see New Orleans' next home triumph over Minnesota. I'm sure the folks in the Big Easy are eager to see the Saints advance to the Super Bowl. That would be a first for them, and that would be their reward for winning today's game. But it's been more than 30 years since the Vikings were in a Super Bowl. They've come close a couple of times, but they haven't played in the NFL's showcase game since January 1977. Whoever wins today's game will be an unfamiliar Super Bowl entrant for most people, to be sure. As the road team in today's NFC championship game, I think a key to Minnesota's success may not necessarily be Favre's arm. He's had a remarkable season for a 40–year–old man, and I doubt that anyone would quibble with his reputation as one of the great quarterbacks of his era. But I think that the most effective weapon a visiting team can have in the playoffs, especially when the home crowd is likely to be as boisterous as the one in the Superdome this afternoon, is a strong running game. It may not always have been clear to observers this year because the offensive spotlight hasn't been on Adrian Peterson in every game, but he remains one of the most potent running backs in pro football. If the Vikings keep the ball in his hands — and save the passing game until it is needed — they can wear down the Saints' defense, which is better against the pass than the run, and they can take the crowd out of the contest. The Saints have a good running game, too, with Reggie Bush in the backfield, but their quick–strike potential can do more than put points on the board. It can whip the fans into a frenzy, and it can demoralize Minnesota's defense — which, it should be pointed out, was one of the league's best. The Vikings may be able to neutralize New Orleans' passing game if they can get to Drew Brees and sack him early, perhaps forcing him to play more tentatively. If that happens, the Saints will have a solid ground game to rely on, but I see the passing game as being what keeps the fans in the Superdome involved in the contest this afternoon. Anyway, those are the keys to this game, in my view — the Minnesota ground game and the New Orleans air attack. The outcome may be as close as it was when the teams faced each other during the 2008 season, but I'll pick the Saints to win this time.

Last week: 2–2.

Playoffs: 3–5.

And Then There Were Four

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A few days ago, I wrote that I expected at least one of the pro football teams that got a bye in the first week of the playoffs to lose in the divisional round. In fact, one team did lose, but it wasn't the one I predicted.

Actually, I am inclined to believe that few, if any, observers expected what happened.

The first three playoff games of the weekend were won by teams that got a bye — which, by definition, means the home team. The winners on Saturday, New Orleans and Indianapolis, were undefeated until December. Neither is undefeated now, but Indianapolis, which won its first 14 games, seemed almost determined to rid itself of the expectations of perfection that many people believed worked against the New England Patriots a couple of years ago. New Orleans wasn't much better. Once both teams had clinched home field through the conference playoffs, they played their regulars sparingly and made it clear that their focus had shifted to the playoffs.

As a result, the Saints and the Colts entered the weekend saddled with losing streaks. Indy had lost two in a row and hadn't won at home since Dec. 13. New Orleans had lost three in a row and hadn't won at home since November.

I predicted that the Colts, who were facing a Baltimore Ravens team they barely beat in Week 11, would stumble. But, after the way Arizona held off a spirited Green Bay team on wild–card weekend, it wouldn't have surprised me if the Saints had taken it on the chin.

Frankly, I wouldn't have been shocked if both teams had fallen. But neither team did.

Then, yesterday, the Dallas Cowboys played the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings struggled in December while the Cowboys established a reputation as perhaps the hottest team in the NFC, becoming the first team to knock off the Saints, then ending the regular season with a win for the first time in 10 years and then winning a playoff game for the first time since 1996.

Consequently, there were probably more than a few NFL fans who thought the Cowboys might upend the Vikings and Brett Favre. But the Vikings, like the Saints and the Colts the day before, rolled to an easy victory.

Of all four of the weekend's playoff games, Sunday's nightcap may have been the one most NFL fans figured was a foregone conclusion. It matched the visiting New York Jets, who have surprised many fans this season, and the San Diego Chargers, who came into the game having won 11 in a row.

Until the fourth quarter, it looked like the Chargers would hang on and win the game, but it was not to be. The Jets won that final quarter, 14–3, and won the game, 17–10, setting up a rematch of their Dec. 27 game with the Colts. On that day, the Jets handed the Colts their first loss of the season. The Colts had already secured home field and had nothing left to play for. The Jets didn't officially clinch a wild–card berth that day — but they may have done so mentally.

This time, the winner goes to the Super Bowl.

As I observed prior to the kickoff of wild–card weekend, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have featured a team that did not get the opening–round bye. On four of those occasions, the team that didn't get the bye won it all.

Does that mean the Jets will continue their improbable playoff run with a win over the Colts on Sunday, perhaps followed by a victory in the Super Bowl?

I'll be addressing that here later this week!

Bye Bye?

Last week, I wrote that getting the first–round bye in the NFL playoffs can be as much a curse as a blessing.

I believe that. And I believe we will see some proof of that this weekend. The teams to keep your eyes on — the teams that got the byes this year — are New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota and San Diego.

At least one of those teams will fall this weekend. Mark my words.

SATURDAY

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• Arizona (11–6) at New Orleans (13–3) — The last time Arizona played in the Louisiana Superdome was on Dec. 16, 2007. Neither team advanced to the playoffs that year, but the Saints won their encounter, 31–24. That's the only time since Hurricane Katrina that the teams have faced each other. Truthfully, the teams haven't met very often in recent years so it is necessary to look for other factors that could influence the outcome: (1) Arizona is coming off a hard–fought overtime win over Green Bay last Sunday. Will the Cardinals be exhilarated or exhausted? (2) New Orleans hasn't won at home since beating New England on Nov. 30. (3) Saints quarterback Drew Brees has received a lot of attention this season, and he clearly has been crucial to the Saints' success, but, statistically, the Cardinals have the NFL's top offense, its second–best passing game and its fifth–best rushing attack. (4) On the other side of the ball, Arizona's overall defense, its pass defense and its run defense rank second only to Dallas among teams that are still active in the NFC. Nevertheless, Steve Wyche of NFL.com says the intangibles, like home field and a week to rest and regroup, are in the Saints' favor. And John DeShazier of the New Orleans Times–Picayune writes that, if the Saints truly want to be the best team in the NFL, there may be no better way to prove it than by beating the defending NFC champs. It wasn't so long ago that the very thought of either the Saints or the Cardinals even being in the playoffs was laughable, but it isn't so laughable now. One of them will play in their second NFC championship game in the last four years. Which will it be? That's a tough call for me, but, by the narrowest of margins, I'll pick the Saints.

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• Baltimore (10–7) at Indianapolis (14–2) — For the second consecutive week, the Ravens will be playing a team that beat them during the regular season. The Colts barely got by the Ravens on November 22, 17–15, but that game was played in Baltimore. The last time the teams met in Indianapolis was Oct. 12, 2008, when the Colts hammered the Ravens, 31–3. Actually, the Colts have won seven in a row against the Ravens (including a playoff game the year they beat the Bears in the Super Bowl). The Ravens haven't beaten the Colts since Dec. 2, 2001, and some people don't think they will snap that losing streak, in part because Baltimore was much better at home than on the road this year. Nevertheless, the Ravens whipped New England on the road last weekend, and there are some folks, like Bucky Brooks of NFL.com, who think Baltimore's running game, led by Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, can make the difference. At the very least, he concedes it is the running game that not only has kept Baltimore's season going but is responsible for the continued presence in the postseason of the Jets and Cowboys as well. Statistically, the Ravens did have the best running game in the NFL. They were the only squad that averaged more than 200 rushing yards per game, and fans must wonder if Indy can keep up with them. Pat Kirwan, Brooks' colleague at NFL.com, openly wonders if the Colts can stop the Ravens' offensive line. I wonder that, too, but, ultimately, that isn't the issue, is it? The linemen may do their job, but the running backs are the ones who have to make the moves, break tackles and turn up the speed when called for. Baltimore's running attack really has emerged since the Indianapolis game. Last time, as Kirwan points out, the Ravens never scored a touchdown against the Colts with an offense that threw the ball more than ran it. The Ravens settled for five field goals and missed a sixth that would have won the game. The objective needs to be different this time. The Ravens have to get the ball into the end zone, and the ground game seems to be in a better position to produce that kind of result — along with the added benefit of keeping Indy's offense off the field. The Colts are 24th in the NFL in defending the run; they can be had. Another factor in this game is the bye. The Colts haven't won a game since Dec. 17, and they haven't beaten a playoff team since that game with the Ravens nearly two months ago. I believe phoning in their last two games and then taking last week off will work against them. Some people say Dallas or San Diego are the hottest teams in the playoffs right now, but Baltimore could be a plausible candidate for that title. The Ravens have emerged the winners of must–win games to get into and then advance in the playoffs. They have plenty of momentum and a running game that could wear down the Colts. I'll take the Ravens.

SUNDAY

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• Dallas (12–5) at Minnesota (12–4) — This may be the game that NFL fans have anticipated the most this week. The teams last faced each other in Dallas on Oct. 21, 2007; the Cowboys won, 24–14. The last time they met in Minnesota was Sept. 12, 2004; the Vikings won that one, 35–17. The last time the road team won was on Nov. 23, 2000, when Minnesota won in Dallas, 27–15. The teams didn't meet in the playoffs for the first time until 1971, but it became almost an annual thing in the 1970s as they faced each other four times between 1971 and 1977. They have only played twice in the postseason since that time, with Dallas winning in 1996 and Minnesota winning in 1999. Well, that's all in the past. What does the immediate future hold? Let's go back to the recent past for just a moment. The Vikings signed Brett Favre last summer, thinking he could provide the leadership the team needed to get to the Super Bowl, and, in spite of a bit of a late–season slump, he's come through. When the season started and Favre was learning Minnesota's system, there was a tendency for the team to rely on halfback Adrian Peterson. As the season progressed, though, the Vikings evolved from primarily a running team to more of a passing team — in the last two games of the regular season, Favre threw for more than 300 yards in each game while Peterson did not crack 100 yards in rushing. So, while Favre ended the season behind Dallas' Tony Romo in the passing rankings, he's been following an upward trajectory, perhaps at Peterson's expense, but as long as Peterson is in the lineup, Dallas can't afford to focus exclusively on Favre and Minnesota's aerial attack. Not to be forgotten is the fact that the Vikings went 8–0 at home. If New Orleans beats Arizona, the winner of this game will have to travel to the Big Easy next week, but this week, as Sid Hartman observes in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, home field is truly an advantage for the Vikings. It should be interesting — and challenging for the Cowboys. In the end, though, I'll go with the home team.

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• New York Jets (10–7) at San Diego (13–3) — Perhaps the only thing you need to know about this matchup is that it has been nearly three months since San Diego lost a football game. That was against Denver on Oct. 19. Here's something else that might be helpful. The last time the Jets played in San Diego was Sept. 22, 2008. The Jets had Brett Favre calling the signals, but that didn't deter the Chargers, who rolled to a 48–29 victory. That's the only win the Chargers have recorded in four meetings with the Jets in the last 15 years — and it came when the Jets had the only Hall of Fame quarterback they've had in their lineup since Joe Namath was on the roster. It's tempting to believe that, until last weekend, the Jets hadn't won a playoff game since Namath was calling the signals. But it only seems that way. The Jets won wild–card games following the 2004 and 2002 seasons, they won a divisional playoff in January 1999, and they won some playoff games in the 1980s, but they've only gone as far as the AFC championship game since their lone Super Bowl appearance more than 40 years ago. The Chargers haven't been much more successful. They lost the only Super Bowl they've ever played in 15 years ago, and they lost in their only AFC championship appearance since then (they only played in two others since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970). But these Chargers are the definition of hot. It is unfortunate for the Jets to have drawn them. If the Ravens had lost to the Patriots, as everyone expected, the Jets would be playing in Indianapolis this weekend and the Pats would have the unenviable task of playing the Chargers. If the Jets and Ravens win this weekend, that would set up the absolutely final game in Giants Stadium, with the AFC title on the line. But I don't think the Jets have the horses to pull it off. I think the Chargers will win.

Playoffs: 1–3.

Wild-Card Weekend Is Upon Us

As I have mentioned here before, I admire the writing of Sports Illustrated's Peter King. He writes very insightful articles about pro football, and he asked an intriguing question in his preview of this weekend's wild–card games:

"When's the last time you recall all four wild–card games being so competitive you wouldn't be surprised to see the road team win any one?" He then proceeds to pick the road teams in two of this weekend's games. I'm with King on that one. In fact, as you will soon see, I have picked three of the four road teams to win this weekend.

Personally, I have often felt that home field was overrated, and King kind of affirms that in his piece. "Two roadies won last year," he writes, "and three won in 2005. This year, I don't care what Vegas says. It's even–steven across the board entering the weekend."

The New York Giants won the Super Bowl two years ago after beating Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay on the road in the NFC playoffs. In 2005, the Pittsburgh Steelers became the first team in two decades to win three road games en route to the Super Bowl (which they also won).

In fact, I have wondered if the practice of giving a first–round bye to the big winners during the regular season hasn't been a detriment, not a benefit. Consider the recent teams that have advanced to the Super Bowl (whether they won or lost) in spite of having to play in the first round: Arizona had to play on wild–card weekend last year. As mentioned previously, the Giants were a wild card two years ago and won it all. So did the Indianapolis Colts, who were not a wild card but had to play one in January 2007. I mentioned the 2005 Steelers. Carolina played in the wild–card weekend following the 2003 season. The 2001 Ravens had to play in the first round. So did the 1999 Tennessee Titans.

Seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have featured a team that did not get a first–round bye. Four of those seven were won by the team that didn't get the bye week. When you consider that four teams get a first–round bye every season, and they get that bye because they are one of the top two winningest teams in the conference, it logically follows that they probably went into the playoffs among the favorites to at least play in the Super Bowl, if not win it all.

That means that, in the last 10 years alone, at least 16 teams that probably were considered one of the favorites to win a Super Bowl did not, and at least 28 teams that were favored to at least play in a Super Bowl did not.

Why do I believe having to play in a wild–card game is not the kiss of death that many seem to think it is? Because I believe a bye week at this stage of the season is useful only if a team is banged up and needs a little extra time to get over its bumps and bruises.

If the team is in fairly good health, my thinking has been that a bye takes a team out of its rhythm. It retards a team's momentum. And I believe New Orleans and Indianapolis, who rested their starters when there was nothing left to play for, may pay a price for doing the smart thing and protecting their top producers.

But that's a subject to be addressed as we go deeper into the playoffs.

TODAY

• New York Jets (9–7) at Cincinnati (10–6) — Of the three playoff games that are rematches of games played last week, this one seems to be the most likely to produce a duplicate result. By the time last Sunday's game between the Jets and the Bengals began, the results of all the other games were known, and the Bengals had nothing to play for. The Jets did, and it showed in the final score — a 37–0 triumph. The game provides an intriguing contrast. When the season began, the Bengals had the hot hand, winning seven of their first 10 games. But, at season's end, the Jets were the hot team, winning five of their last six. Since Thanksgiving, Cincinnati lost to three playoff teams and only managed wins over Detroit and Kansas City. The last time the teams played in Cincinnati was on Oct. 21, 2007. The Bengals prevailed, 38–31, but the Jets have won two in a row at home against the Bengals since then. Can they win at Cincinnati for the first time since September 1997? I think they will.


• Philadelphia (11–5) at Dallas (11–5) — As members of the same division, these two teams are familiar foes. They play each other twice a year, and they just played at Cowboys Stadium last Sunday. In that game, Dallas won, 24–0, giving the Cowboys two victories over the Eagles during the regular season. Now they must try to make it three victories, which is a difficult task. And the Cowboys need look no further than their own postseason experience for examples of just how hard it can be. Two years ago — the last time Dallas was in the playoffs — the Cowboys faced the New York Giants in the playoffs after beating them twice during the regular season. The Giants won, 21–17, and went on to the Super Bowl, where they upset the previously unbeaten New England Patriots. And, in 1998, the Cowboys beat the Arizona Cardinals (who were in their division at the time) twice during the regular season, then lost to the Cardinals in the playoffs, 20–7. Until this season, there was considerable talk about the Cowboys' "December jinx," although that talk seems to have been dispelled by Dallas' 3–2 record last month (including a victory over previously unbeaten New Orleans). Nevertheless, some folks in Dallas will remind you that the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game in more than 10 years. I predict the Eagles, who had won six in a row before tumbling against Dallas last Sunday, will bounce back and win the game.

SUNDAY

• Baltimore (9–7) at New England (10–6) — The way I see it, there are three things to keep in mind in this game. First: Location, location, location. The Patriots have been absolutely awful on the road, which is where they will have to play next week if they beat Baltimore. But, against the Ravens, New England is playing at home, where the Pats are 8–0. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 3–5 on the road, and the Ravens lost at New England earlier in the season, 27–21. So, on the basis of location, the Pats should be favored. Second: Statistics. The Patriots are third in the NFL in total offense (the Ravens are 13th) and pass offense (the Ravens are 18th). Baltimore does have the advantage in rushing offense, ranking fifth in the NFL while the Patriots are 12th. Baltimore has the edge in team defense (third in the NFL, compared to 11th for New England), passing defense (eighth in the NFL while New England is 12th) and rushing defense (fifth in the NFL; Patriots are 13th). New England's margin on offense is more pronounced than Baltimore's is on defense — although, if Baltimore has the lead late in the game and needs to run the ball to control the clock, the Ravens seem to be in a better position to do so than the Patriots. That doesn't seem likely to me, though, so I'll give the edge to New England. Third: Postseason experience. It can be argued that today's Ravens have more recent postseason experience than the Patriots. New England, after all, did not qualify for the playoffs last year while Baltimore, in spite of being the sixth seed, defeated Miami and Tennessee on the road and stayed within striking distance of Pittsburgh in the first half of the AFC title game. Will the weather be a factor? Well, it's expected to be cold (predicted high of 24°) and windy (the wind chill could be as low as -1°) but sunny. That's a little colder than it is expected to be in Baltimore tomorrow (28°, sunny, not as windy). The Ravens may notice the weather, but I doubt they will be affected by it. I think they are more likely to be affected by the atmosphere. History has shown that it is very tough for the visiting team to win at New England, especially in the playoffs, and I'll give the home team the edge in this one.


• Green Bay (11–5) at Arizona (10–6) — Pat Kirwan of NFL.com says the key to this game is the ability to get to the quarterback, and he may have a point. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers did get sacked 50 times this season, and he was sacked more than twice as often in games the Packers lost. But bear in mind that Green Bay's defense appears to be better than Arizona's. The Packers have the best team defense in the NFC and the best run defense in the NFL. And, while the Green Bay pass defense is ranked second in the NFC, Arizona's is ranked 11th. Add to that the fact that Green Bay has beaten Arizona severely twice this year — once was in the third week of the preseason, so it didn't count in the standings, and the other was last weekend. This is the playoffs, and the Cardinals may have Anquan Boldin back from injury — although NFL.com suggests that it is unlikely he will play. Apparently, he's still hobbling around, but he's a factor whenever he is in the lineup. I think the game will be closer this time, but I'll stick with the Packers, who are probably the hottest team on the NFC side of the playoffs.

So, if my predictions are correct, next week's playoffs will be:

• In the NFC, Green Bay will play Minnesota for the third time this season, and Philadelphia will travel to New Orleans in a rematch of their Week 2 meeting.


• In the AFC, the top–seeded Indianapolis Colts will play host to the New York Jets, who handed them their first loss of the season a couple of weeks ago, and San Diego will play host to New England in what would be the first postseason game that is not a rematch of a regular–season contest.

Last week: 9–7.

Season: 180–78.