The Weekend That Things Changed

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And just like that ... everything changed.

Well, not everything. But nearly everything.

In the aftermath of Auburn's thrashing of Georgia and Miami's whipping of Notre Dame, the entire Final Four is up for grabs, it seems.

Well, not entirely.

Unless Auburn or Georgia can beat Alabama, I'm pretty sure the Crimson Tide will be in the college football playoff. And defending national champion Clemson will probably be there, too, although the path does not seem so straight or so clear for the Tigers.

But Georgia and Notre Dame probably won't be, which opens a couple of doors for the likes of Oklahoma, Wisconsin and, perhaps, Miami and/or Auburn, although the latter two would need to knock off the two apparent locks for the playoffs in their conference championship games.

In short, nothing seems quite as certain as it did last week.

Idle: #15 Washington State

Thursday

• Tulsa at #23 South Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is only the second time these teams have met. The first time was three years ago at Tulsa, and South Florida prevailed by eight points.
  
  South Florida is favored to do it again this time by 23 points. My choice is South Florida.

Saturday

• Mercer at #1 Alabama, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: You know, there really isn't any point in discussing this one much.
  
  It exists to fill the week before the Iron Bowl. That's all. If Alabama loses, the Crimson Tide will have no hope of being in college football's playoffs.
  
  Alabama will win.
• Virginia at #2 Miami (Fla.), 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Miami has built a two–game lead in this series with wins in the last two seasons.
  
  It is a lot more competitive than you probably ever thought.
  
  But the oddsmakers don't think this edition will be too competitive. They have made Miami a 19½–point pick.
  
  It would certainly be dramatic if Virginia could pull off the upset, but I don't think that will happen. I choose Miami.
• #3 Oklahoma at Kansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Oklahoma has won 12 in a row against Kansas — last year the Sooners won 56–3 — and OU is picked by 37 points this time.
  
  It seems to be beyond dispute. Oklahoma should win handily.
• The Citadel at #4 Clemson, 11:20 a.m. (Central) on ACCNE: You know, by this point in the season, you really hope that this kind of nonconference game is gone, but I guess you could see this one coming from a long way away.
  
  Clemson is the clear choice.
• #19 Michigan at #5 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: This is the only game between two ranked teams this week, and it ought to be a good one.
  
  Michigan leads the all–time series by a wide margin, but Wisconsin has been competitive in their most recent meetings.
  
  However, it is worth noting that, until last year, the teams had not met since 2010. When the series was renewed last year, Michigan won by a touchdown.
  
  This time Wisconsin is the favorite by 7½ points.
  
  I take Wisconsin.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #6 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is like the Mercer–Alabama game. It is there to take up schedule space.
  
  Auburn will win.
• Kentucky at #7 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Georgia has won more than 80% of its meetings with Kentucky over the years. Currently Georgia has won nine of the last 10.
  
  The Bulldogs are favored by 21½ in this one. OK. I take Georgia.
• Illinois at #8 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 103rd meeting of these schools, and Ohio State leads by better than 2 to 1.
  
  The Buckeyes hold an eight–game winning streak, and they're favored by a whopping 41 points to make that nine.
  
  I pick Ohio State.
• Navy at #9 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: For some reason, it still surprises people when you mention that Navy has a pretty good football team.
  
  I guess they get the Midshipmen confused with the other service academies, which have struggled in recent years. But Navy is 6–3 (incidentally Army is playing pretty well this year, but Air Force has to win its last two to qualify for a bowl).
  
  The 8–2 Irish appeared headed for college football's playoffs until they lost to Miami last week. They're apt to be a bit feisty after last week's game.
  
  Plus there is some decisive history working against Navy. The Midshipmen have won only twice at South Bend in the last 50 years.
  
  I pick Notre Dame.
• Kansas State at #10 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Oklahoma State has won three of its last four against Kansas State, but Oklahoma State really needs to win this one to be in the conversation for the Big 12 championship.
  
  At 5–5 Kansas State needs a win in its last two games to qualify for a bowl, but the Wildcats have Iowa State waiting next week. Fortunately for K–State, that game will be played in Manhattan, Kansas. The Wildcats can afford to lose this one.
  
  I think they will, too. The choice is Oklahoma State.
• #11 TCU at Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: Tech leads this series, but most of those wins came during Tech's 3½ decades in the old Southwest Conference.
  
  TCU jumped out to an early lead in the series, winning the first five encounters, but Tech, as I say, made up for a lot after the Red Raiders joined the SWC. The teams met only twice from the time the SWC folded until TCU joined Tech in the Big 12 a few years ago. Now they meet regularly.
  
  Tech beat TCU by a field goal last year, but TCU comes into this year's game favored by 6½. If TCU does win, it would be only the third victory at Lubbock for the Frogs in more than 40 years.
  
  Make Texas Tech an upset special.
• UCLA at #12 Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This was a rivalry game that I always enjoyed watching when I was a kid. There was always so much color on both sides. And the games were usually competitive, too.
  
  But Southern Cal usually won, and the Trojans are favored this time by 16 points. I have to take Southern Cal. But it's still worth watching.
• Nebraska at #13 Penn State, 4 p.m. (Central) on FS1: There was a time when this would have been a marquee game, whenever it was played. It would have made a great bowl game some years, but they have never met in the postseason.
  
  Nebraska has fallen on hard times, but, believe it or not, the Cornhuskers have won their last four encounters with the Nittany Lions.
  
  It is hard to see how that streak can continue. Nebraska is 4–6 and needs to win its last two to qualify for a bowl. Penn State is 8–2, already assured of a bowl but looking to beef up its record and improve its postseason destination. The oddsmakers favor Penn State by nearly four touchdowns. I have to take Penn State.
• #14 Central Florida at Temple, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: The historical record in this series is brief and does not really provide much guidance.
  
  They have played four games, two on each team's home field. Both teams are 1–1 at home.
  
  But Central Florida is 9–0 and Temple is 5–5. The oddsmakers have made UCF a 13½–point favorite. Good enough for me. I choose Central Florida.
• Utah at #16 Washington, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Utah has only beaten Washington once, but that came on Washington's home field, where they will play this weekend.
  
  The series predates Utah joining the Pac–12, but all the games prior to that were played in Seattle. The one and only time that Utah hosted Washington was after Utah joined the conference.
  
  Didn't really matter. Washington won that game in Salt Lake City and has won nearly all the games played in Seattle. The oddsmakers think the Huskies will win this one, too, and so do I. Washington is the pick.
• #17 Mississippi State at Arkansas, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: Arkansas snapped a four–game losing streak against Mississippi State last year, but the oddsmakers think the Bulldogs will get back on the winning track this weekend.
  
  They're favored by 11½ points.
  
  Naturally, I would like to see my alma mater win, but I have to be realistic. The Hogs haven't been good this year, and they're likely to lose by a wider margin than 11½ points. I must choose Mississippi State.
• SMU at #18 Memphis, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNews: This is the 10th game between these teams. The series has gone in threes — Memphis won the first three, SMU won the second three, and Memphis won the most recent three. The logical progression would mean that SMU will win this time, but the oddsmakers don't think so. They made Memphis an 11½–point favorite.
  
  I think it will be closer than that, but I agree that Memphis will win.
• California at #20 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Stanford has beaten Cal seven straight times and leads the all–time series by 10 games.
  
  But as lopsided as the series record is, the games have tended to be surprisingly close. When Stanford won by two touchdowns last season, that was actually a closer margin than the teams have produced in recent years, but more typical of the series is the famous finish of the 1982 Big Game.
  OK, they aren't always so dramatic, but the final margin (in this case, five points) has a lot in common with most games.
  
  The oddsmakers favor Stanford to extend the streak. I agree. I pick Stanford.
• #21 LSU at Tennessee, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Tennessee already has enough distractions with the dismissal of head coach Butch Jones last weekend.
  
  And now LSU comes to town.
  
  These teams haven't faced each other since 2011, and Tennessee leads the all–time series, but LSU has won the last four encounters and six of the last eight. On top of that, LSU is clearly on an upward trajectory while Tennessee is tumbling into the abyss.
  
  LSU is a 15½–point favorite. It would be hard to justify picking the Volunteers, and I don't. LSU is my choice.
• Maryland at #22 Michigan State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This will be the ninth meeting between these teams, and Maryland won last year for only the second time.
  
  I don't think Maryland can pull it off again. My pick is Michigan State.
• Texas at #24 West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met six times, all but the first one coming since 2012.
  
  And the pattern is that one team wins back–to–back encounters, then the other team wins two, then the first team wins two.
  
  By that pattern, it should be Texas' turn. The Mountaineers have won the last two games.
  
  But West Virginia is favored by 11 points. I think West Virginia will win at home.
• #25 North Carolina State at Wake Forest, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: N.C. State has won three in a row against Wake Forest and six of the last nine.
  
  The Wolfpack have a significant lead in the all–time series, but the Deacons won six in a row at home before the Wolfpack halted the skid with a 35–17 win at Winston–Salem in 2015. It's been more than 20 years since the Wolfpack won back–to–back games at Winston–Salem. Can they do it again?
  
  The oddsmakers don't think so. They have made Wake Forest a 1–point favorite. I disagree. North Carolina State is an upset special.

Last week: 13–3

Overall: 171–40

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 3–1

Overall upset specials: 11–20

Something Must Be Done

Whatever the truth may be about Cam Newton, Auburn, Mississippi State, recruiting, etc., apparently will have to wait until after the 2010 football season is in the books.

As Kalani Simpson observes for FOX Sports, the NCAA isn't going to interfere and keep Newton from playing in tomorrow's SEC championship game — or, apparently, the national title game.

I'm not sure how I feel about that. I mean, we aren't too far removed from the Reggie Bush experience, and that is something I don't think any college football fan is eager to repeat.

I won't go into detail on that — and I'm sure no one associated with Auburn needs to be reminded of the Bush experience.

Southern California (Bush's alma mater) played Texas for the title that year. Undefeated Auburn was ranked third and had to play Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. I knew some disappointed Auburn fans who called it the Consolation Bowl — but it didn't seem terribly consoling to them.

If Newton is allowed to play tomorrow — and, presumably, in the national title game — and then it turns out that he, like Bush, must forfeit his Heisman (assuming he wins it, and most folks, at this point, are treating that like it's a given) and Auburn must forfeit its title (if it beats Oregon), unbeaten TCU will be in the same position as Auburn was then — deserving of a spot in the national title game but denied one because of the inappropriate actions of an underclassman.

But what choice do we have? There isn't enough time to hear the charges in full and whatever defenses may be offered. There isn't enough time for a jury or a panel of some kind to consider the evidence and render a just verdict before kickoff.

Indeed, there seems to be only one choice, and that is to let Newton play tomorrow. To do otherwise simply wouldn't be fair — to Newton, to Auburn or to South Carolina.

But, whether this eventually turns out to be Reggie Bush Revisited or simply Much Ado About Nothing, something needs to be done — unless we want recruiters bidding for Heisman prospects as if they were wannabe senators from Illinois.

Idle: #3 TCU, #4 Wisconsin, #5 Stanford, #6 Ohio State, #7 Michigan State, #8 Arkansas, #11 LSU, #15 Missouri, #16 Oklahoma State, #17 Alabama, #19 Texas A&M, #21 Utah, #22 Mississippi State.

All times are Central.

Friday

• #24 Northern Illinois at Miami (Ohio), 6 p.m. on ESPN2: Northern Illinois might be one of the best teams that hardly anyone has been talking about.
  
  NIU is in the Top 25 in both offense and defense, but the offense is especially good, ranked 17th in the country. Miami, by comparison, is 85th.
  
  Miami's defense, like NIU's, is in the Top 30. But I'm skeptical that it could make up for Miami's offensive deficiencies, so I pick Northern Illinois to win.

Saturday

• #1 Oregon at Oregon State, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: In Oregon, they call this the Civil War. The rivalry between the two schools has been fought for more than a century.
  
  Unless one of these teams is playing in a bowl, this is ordinarily the season finale for both schools.
  
  As it is, though, Oregon will be playing in the postseason. The Ducks are currently undefeated and ranked #1. Oregon State, on the other hand, is 5–6. The Beavers need a win to become bowl eligible, which is motivation enough, I suppose, since Oregon State has gone bowling in the last four seasons and I doubt the Beavers really want to end their streak.
  
  Just being bowl eligible is not a guarantee this season, though. As I understand it, there are already enough bowl eligible teams to fill all the bowl slots — and there may be a few more after this weekend's games. If so, then some bowl–eligible teams will be left out in the cold. There seems to be no way around it.
  
  But it seems likely to me that, if Oregon State can defeat the top–ranked team in the country on the last Saturday of the regular season, the Beavers can count on being in a bowl. That's pretty inspirational.
  
  And, to a casual observer, the situation may look pretty good. The game is being played, after all, at Oregon State.
  
  But the last time Oregon came to Oregon State, the Ducks scored 65 points — which is pretty close to what they've been averaging in many games this season.
  
  Prior to that, though, Oregon State won five straight meetings at home. And, in this series, home has been important. Since 1997, the home team has won all but two of the Civil Wars.
  
  I don't think the home team will win this time ... but you never know about these rivalry games. That old saying about tossing the records out the window really does apply, even if it seems like a worn–out cliche.
  
  Nevertheless, I think Oregon will win and go on to face Auburn for the national title.


• SEC championship — # 18 South Carolina vs. #2 Auburn, 3 p.m. on CBS: Legendary Alabama coach Bear Bryant used to tell his players to "act like you've been there before" when they scored a touchdown.
  
  In that spirit, Auburn has been to the SEC championship game before. This is the Tigers' fourth appearance.
  
  On the other hand, this will be South Carolina's first trip to the SEC title game, but, even though the modern SEC competes in divisions and these teams don't face each other every year, this is not the first encounter between these two schools.
  
  In fact, they met earlier this year — at Auburn — and Auburn won, 35–27. And Auburn won the four previous meetings since they became conference rivals.
  
  It would be tempting, for several reasons, to assume that South Carolina will lose this game, too. But let's not be too hasty.
  
  Yes, the records suggest that 12–0 Auburn will beat 9–3 South Carolina. Yes, the recent history of the series also favors the Tigers. And it is also true that the once–dominant SEC East, which Carolina will represent in tomorrow's game, is not what it was.
  
  But that brings up an interesting point.
  
  Non–divisional opponents face each other on a rotating basis. Some years, a team's non–divisional schedule may seem light compared to other years.
  
  But I think South Carolina's schedule in 2010 — the usual SEC East opposition, which includes Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, plus three of the toughest teams in the SEC West (defending national champion Alabama, presumptive national title competitor Auburn and Arkansas) — may have been one of the stoutest in the nation.
  
  It's true that Newton has Auburn's offense ranked in the Top 10 while Carolina's languishes at #48. But Carolina's defense is 33rd in the country following its challenging season, which is better than Auburn's (#58).
  
  When it gets right down to it, yes, I think Auburn will win. But I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina pulled off the upset.


• Utah State at #9 Boise State, 2 p.m. on ESPN3.com: Boise State hasn't lost to Utah State since 1997, and Utah State hasn't won at Boise State since 1996.
  
  The numbers don't suggest any kind of change is likely. Boise State's offense and defense are among the nation's best. Utah State's are among the nation's worst.
  
  The only way I see Utah State winning this game is if Boise State is in some kind of funk over last week's overtime loss to Nevada. Otherwise, I expect Boise State to win ... big.


• Big 12 championship — #13 Nebraska vs. #10 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. on ABC: When Nebraska beat Oklahoma last season, it snapped a four–game OU winning streak that included a win in the 2006 Big 12 championship game.
  
  Before that, Nebraska took full advantage of the fact that the Cornhuskers were enjoying a surge while the Sooners were stumbling, winning seven out of eight in the 1990s. Sometimes during that stretch, Nebraska was merciless, rolling up wins of 73–21 and 69–7.
  
  The marquee matchup in this game unquestionably will be when OU's 12th–ranked offense has the ball, and it must face Nebraska's fifth–ranked defense. But the outcome may depend on what happens when Nebraska's 31st–ranked offense takes on OU's mediocre defense (63rd in the country).
  
  In the second half of the season, I'm inclined to think Texas A&M was the best team in the Big 12 South and deserved to play Nebraska for the league crown. But the Sooners got the nod, even though they lost to A&M in the final weeks of the season.
  
  With its historic rivalry as a backdrop, I think this may be the most entertaining game of the day. And I pick Nebraska to win it.


• ACC championship — #20 Florida State vs. #12 Virginia Tech, 6:45 p.m. on ESPN: Florida State always seems to get the better of Virginia Tech.
  
  They compete in different divisions in the ACC so they don't play each other every year, and they haven't been in the same conference very long.
  
  But, even though their time as conference rivals has been brief, they have met for the ACC crown before — in 2005. Florida State prevailed, 27–22. Before they were in the same conference, they met in the Gator Bowl following the 2001 season. Florida State won that one, too.
  
  And they met in the Sugar Bowl following the 1999 season. Florida State rolled to a 46–29 win.
  
  They faced off as regular–season, non–conference opponents every year between 1988 and 1991. Guess what? Florida State won those games, too.
  
  In fact, since 1976, Virginia Tech has beaten Florida State only once — at Virginia Tech in 2007.
  
  The defenses are pretty evenly matched, which means the game could well hinge on offense. If that is so, Virginia Tech should be due to end its frustration at Florida State's hands — this time, anyway.


• #14 Nevada at Louisiana Tech: Nevada has beaten Louisiana Tech five straight times. The last time Tech won was in 2004, when the teams opened the season at Louisiana Tech.
  
  Like Oregon State, Tech could be bowl eligible with a win. But the numbers don't favor that. Nevada's third–ranked offense should be too much for Tech's 114th–ranked defense. Tech's offense should be able to score on Nevada's defense, too — but probably not as often.
  
  Consequently, I pick Nevada.


• Rutgers at #23 West Virginia, 11 a.m. on ABC: West Virginia has beaten Rutgers 15 straight times.
  
  West Virginia's defense is third in the nation, easily capable of handling Rutgers' 107th–ranked offense.
  
  I'll take West Virginia.


• UNLV at #25 Hawaii, 9:30 p.m. on ESPN3.com: Hawaii is clearly better on both sides of the ball.
  
  The recent history of this series has been competitive, but I'm inclined to think Hawaii will win this one easily.

Last week: 16–4

Season: 209–46

Breaking News (?) From Auburn

The Birmingham News is reporting that the decision to dismiss football coach Tommy Tuberville has been made at Auburn.

No announcement has been made so far, but Tuberville met with the athletic director yesterday and today. And today he also met with the university president.

When an announcement is made, it will be either that he's been fired or that he's the recipient of a rousing endorsement from the Auburn administration.

And I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that "rousing endorsement." The signals seem to suggest a coaching change is in the works.

Charles Goldberg points out that Auburn was a "disappointing 5-7" this season — and, certainly, the 36-0 loss to in-state rival Alabama in last weekend's "Iron Bowl" is one of the disappointments that Auburn fans endured this year.

But Tuberville is 7-3 against Alabama in his tenure at Auburn — and, before Saturday's loss, he had won six in a row against the Crimson Tide.

As it is with all coaches, it's about the numbers. The cumulative numbers.

Of course, it wasn't just the loss to Alabama that hurt Tuberville's cause — although it obviously didn't help.

Considering that Auburn came into the season as the media's choice to win the SEC West — but Alabama won the division and may play for the national title — I think it may have been just one more nail in Tuberville's coffin.

He might have been able to salvage his job with a win over Alabama — but that's going to be nothing but speculation now, I believe.

After the Tigers started the season 3-0, they won only two of their last nine games — and they will take a five-game SEC losing streak into the 2009 season, whoever the coach is.

To say Auburn's offense struggled this season is to be generous:

• Auburn was 100th in the nation in passing yards per game.


• Auburn was 71st in the nation in rushing yards per game.


• The Tigers were 112th in the nation in scoring.

Auburn was somewhat better on defense.

But the defense couldn't compensate for the fact that Auburn only scored about 17 points per game.

• Auburn was 17th in the nation in points allowed per game.


• The Tigers were 53rd in rushing yards allowed.


• Auburn was 23rd in the nation in passing yards allowed.


• And the Tigers were 26th in total defense.