Who's Gonna Win, Alabama or Georgia?

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So now it comes down to the matchup everyone expected in the SEC Championship — until Auburn upended Georgia and rival Alabama in the regular season. But Auburn couldn't beat Georgia in the SEC Championship and missed a chance to play for the national title.

Now the fourth–ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (12–1) will face the third–ranked Georgia Bulldogs (13–1) for the national championship tonight starting at 7 (Central) on ESPN. I expect a classic defensive struggle in true Southeastern Conference fashion.

It is a battle that will be waged on many levels.

It is a battle between mentor and protege. Georgia coach Kirby Smart served on Alabama coach Nick Saban's staff until accepting his current position. This will be the 12th time Saban has faced one of his former assistants. So far he has won them all.

Most people probably expected to see the Heisman winner, Oklahoma senior QB Baker Mayfield, in the title game, but the Sooners lost a double–overtime classic to Georgia in last Monday's semifinal in the Rose Bowl.

That seems to make it less likely that the championship game will be an aerial show, which is probably for the best since both teams are in the Top 10 in pass defense. A good quarterback can still cause some problems for a good pass defense, as Mayfield demonstrated in completing 23 of 35 passes for two touchdowns and 287 yards against Georgia, but the quarterbacks for Alabama and Georgia, as talented as they are, are not close to his level yet.

While Mayfield was second in the nation in passing yardage, Georgia's freshman quarterback Jake Fromm was 60th and Alabama sophomore Jalen Hurts was 73rd. Both have potential, but both are still young and developing.

Hurts, however, does have the advantage over Fromm in the sense that he has been here before. Alabama came up just short in last year's national championship game against Clemson. It wasn't his fault. Hurts threw for one touchdown and ran for another, and the Crimson Tide played turnover–free football, but Alabama yielded three touchdowns in the final quarter to blow a 10–point lead.

Alabama junior wide receiver Calvin Ridley was No. 41 nationally in receiving yardage with 935 yards this season, making him the most prolific receiver on the field tonight. No other receiver in tonight's game finished in the Top 100.

That also seems to make it more likely that the game will be a battle on the ground, but neither team has a Top 10 runner. The closest is Georgia senior Nick Chubb, who ranked No. 26 with more than 1,300 yards and a per–carry average gain of more than 6 yards, but he has the No. 38 back, senior Sony Michel, to share the load.

Chubb and Michel — regarded by some as the best rushing twosome in college football history — will be challenged by Alabama's second–in–the–nation run defense.

Georgia is pretty good against the run, too. The Bulldogs' run defense ranks No. 18, which should be adequate against the nation's 61st–best rusher, junior Damien Harris. Hurts is dangerous when he runs the ball, too, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, but he only runs the ball about 11 or 12 times per game. If Hurts isn't able to throw against Georgia, he may have to do more running than usual.

Although the teams have faced each other 67 times, this will be the first time they have met since Oct. 3, 2015. Georgia has won less than 40% of the time and hasn't beaten Alabama since 2007. That, incidentally, was Georgia's third consecutive win against the Tide, continuing a pattern that has been characteristic of this series since the early '90s.

Since that time, one team wins three in a row, then the other team wins three in a row, then the first team wins three in a row and so on. Alabama's victory in 2015 was its third straight against the Bulldogs. According to the pattern of the series, that means Georgia will prevail tonight.

But Alabama was established as a 4½–point favorite once the matchup was certain. Is that significant? Well, I read that, since 2010, Alabama has been favored in all but one game — the exception being that game against Georgia in 2015.

Of course, the Tide has lost a dozen times since the start of the 2010 season — all games in which they were favored — so point spreads are not infallible. But Alabama's record is impressive.

The teams have met six times in Atlanta, with each winning three times. The last time they played there was in the SEC Championship in December 2012. Alabama was the winner. Georgia hasn't beaten Alabama in Atlanta since 1942.

So now it is time for me to make my final college football pick of the 2017 season. I've done pretty well in the postseason — but not so much in the national playoffs. I predicted Oklahoma and Clemson would be playing tonight, and you can see how well that worked out!

I hope I'm wrong again, but I really believe that Alabama will prevail.

National semifinals: 0–2

Bowls: 10–3

Overall: 222–52

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 4–1

Overall upset specials: 17–24

And the National Champion Will Be ...

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National Championship

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14–0) vs. #2 Clemson Tigers (13–1)
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa
7 p.m. (Central)
ESPN

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I'm a history buff, and I tend to look at things from the perspective of history. The topic doesn't matter. Everything has a history, and that history can tell us a lot. It's a matter of recognizing what history is trying to tell you.

It is often said that history repeats itself. I tend to agree with Mark Twain, who said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." Usually, there's a lot of rhymin'.

The history of the Alabama–Clemson football series is that Alabama has dominated. To be fair, Clemson did win the first two meetings, which were in 1904 and 1905. Alabama has won the 13 games that have been played since — including last year's national championship game.

So history would suggest that Alabama will win the national championship in Tampa — because Alabama always beats Clemson.

But past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What is true of past seasons may prove to be true of the just–concluded regular season, but it is important to consider how these teams performed in that 2016 season. It has more relevance than what happened a century ago — although what happened in the past does contribute to mindset. As Vince Lombardi said, "We would accomplish many more things if we did not think of them as impossible."

You can argue that Alabama will win tonight's game because it won a stronger conference — or, at least, one that is perceived to be stronger — than the conference Clemson won.

But Clemson's Atlantic Coast Conference has beaten Alabama's Southeastern Conference in three out of four bowl confrontations last month.

In most football games, the quarterback is regarded as the position that is most critical to a team's success. In the national rankings in nine categories, Alabama QB Jalen Hurts was in the Top 20 in only one — completion percentage. He was 16th. That's a good thing, right? It is — except that Clemson's Deshaun Watson, the Heisman runner–up, was ranked eighth.

Hurts, a freshman, and Watson, a junior, attempted almost the same number of passes so it is a valid comparison — and Watson was in the Top 20 in seven categories and was usually in the Top 10. He threw 38 touchdown passes, and Hurts threw 21, but Watson threw 17 interceptions (Hurts threw nine).

Junior wideout Mike Williams is the receiving target Alabama most needs to stop. Williams caught 90 passes for 1,267 yards for Clemson, but the Crimson Tide can't afford to ignore sophomore Deon Cain, who averaged 19.1 yards per catch.

Running back isn't the focus of either offense. Alabama's Damien Harris averaged 7.2 yards per carry — but he only averaged about 10 carries per game. Clemson's Wayne Gallman ran for 16 touchdowns (Harris ran for only two), but his rushing average was a more pedestrian 5.1 yards per carry.

On defense, Clemson senior defensive tackle Carlos Watkins had 10½ sacks this season. But, as a team, Alabama's defense was the best in the nation this season. The Crimson Tide was one of only three teams to give up less than 100 yards rushing per game (the other two were Wisconsin and Western Kentucky) and forced an average of 1.9 turnovers per game (same as Clemson).

And Alabama yielded an average of 11.4 points per game; no other defense gave up fewer points, on average, this season.

Ultimately, I am inclined to think that the defense will make the difference, but, while oddsmakers say Alabama is a 6½–point pick, I am more of the mind that Alabama will win by three points.

Last week: 9–7

Overall: 204–72

Postponed: 1

Last week's upset specials: 2–3

Overall upset specials: 14–24

Who Will It Be, Alabama or Clemson?

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And now, we are down to the final game — #1 Clemson vs. #2 Alabama. You can see the game on ESPN Monday night starting at 7:30 p.m. (Central). It will be played in University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

My record in the bowl season was good but not spectacular. I was 10–6 in my picks. That is a .625 accuracy percentage. As I say, it was good. Not great.

But I must say that I am rather proud of my record in the college football semifinals. I picked Clemson over Oklahoma and Alabama over Michigan State. Right — in both cases. Neither game was even close.

Now the tough part. Picking which one will win the national title. I expect this one to be closer, much closer.

One thing I can say without fear of contradiction is Alabama's been there — frequently — in recent seasons. It seems like it's been that way all my life. Oh, sure, I know Alabama has been through dry spells, but very little really seems to have changed since I was a boy and Bear Bryant was on the Alabama sideline. Bryant brought six national titles to Tuscaloosa, and Alabama fans grew up during his tenure with a kind of sense of entitlement that is still there. Call it Alabama affluenza.

If Alabama wasn't in the national championship conversation, so the thinking seemed to go, it was an off year. But that wouldn't last long. It never did.

The Bear never had a Heisman Trophy winner, either. Nick Saban has had two, and one of them, Derrick Henry, is on the current roster.

Yet, in spite of all that, Clemson's offense is ranked higher than Alabama's. Clemson has the sixth–ranked offense in the nation. Alabama's 35th–ranked offense is respectable, not spectacular.

Both teams are very good on defense. Alabama's defense, which always gets attention, is ranked third, and Clemson's is ranked 13th.

My guess is that it will be a defensive game, and Alabama's defense will be tested by Clemson's sophomore QB, Deshaun Watson, and sophomore running back, Wayne Gallman. Gallman headlines the 11th–best run offense in the nation.

That is where the game is likely to be decided. The Crimson Tide has been tough against the run all year; in fact, Alabama is ranked #1 in the land against the run, which suggests that Clemson may struggle to score.

If Clemson does struggle on the ground, the Tigers might turn to their passing game, which was #19 in the nation. Alabama's defense was ranked #31 against the pass so there may be some opportunity there. Watson was 18th in the nation in passing yards, he completed more than 68% of his passes, and he had 31 touchdown strikes — and he was only sacked 13 times. And yet ...

Alabama junior defensive lineman Jonathan Allen is a beast at 6–foot–3 and weighing in at 272 pounds. He finished sixth in the nation in sacks with 12. Junior linebacker Tim Williams chipped in 11.

Run defense is Clemson's Achilles' heel if you want to call it that. The Tigers are #32 against the run, which is better than most but not as good as some. It might be good enough against Alabama, though, which is ranked #23 in run offense even with the Heisman winner in the backfield.

Speaking of the ground game, Henry led the nation in rushing with 2,061 yards (including the 75 he picked up against Michigan State on New Year's Eve). You can be sure the Tigers will keep an eye on him.

Historically, I suppose there is considerable motivation for Clemson. Alabama leads the all–time series 12–2. But I seriously doubt that anyone living remembers the last time Clemson beat Alabama. It was on Oct. 25, 1905 in Columbia, S.C.

Alabama has beaten Clemson 12 straight times, and the Tigers' highest score in any of those games was 14 points on Oct. 26, 1968. More often than not, Alabama has shut out Clemson.

Bryant went 5–0 against Clemson, and his teams did shut out Clemson the first time he faced the Tigers and the last time he faced them. Clemson scored in the three games that were played in between. In the Tigers' entire 12–game losing streak against the Tide, Clemson has only scored in five games.

I'm sure the Tigers will score in this one. After all, Clemson hasn't been shut out since Aug. 30, 2003, when the Tigers lost to Georgia.

Actually, I think the Tigers will do better than score. I predict that Clemson will defeat Alabama.

Last week: 10–6

Upset specials last week: 1–3

Season: 198–58

Upset specials overall: 9–17

Picking Oregon to Win It All

Well, the national championship game is being played in nearby Arlington tonight. Kickoff is in about an hour.

Oregon and Ohio State survived the semifinals on New Year's Day and are playing for the title tonight.

They've met eight times before — most recently in the 2010 Rose Bowl. Ohio State is 8–0 in those games.

It really should be a good game. It matches two Top 10 offenses — Oregon is ranked third in the country, Ohio State is ranked ninth. I expect a lot of scoring.

Ohio State's defense is ranked well ahead of Oregon's. The Buckeyes are 17th in the nation; the Ducks are 84th.

I guess those rankings suggest that Ohio State will win the game tonight. Perhaps the Buckeyes will. They have already surprised me twice, beating Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship and then Alabama in a national semifinal — both pretty handily, too — despite being without their injured quarterback. Impressive.

But, really, I'm inclined to pick Oregon. The Ducks have the Heisman winner, and they buried Florida State, the defending national champions, on New Year's Day. That's pretty impressive as well.

So I pick Oregon to win. Perhaps it will go to overtime. Even if it doesn't, I expect it to go down to the wire.

Enjoy.

Bowls: 7–8

Season: 213–58

Hog Heaven

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Today is a special day in the history of my alma mater.

Today is the 20th anniversary of Arkansas' victory over Duke in the national championship game.

Two days earlier, the Razorbacks had beaten Arizona in the national semifinals. As I wrote the other day, I was on a trip to Denver with some journalism students, and I missed that game — but I had set my video recorder to tape it, and I did watch it after I got home on Sunday, April 3.

Twenty years ago tonight, I was in my apartment in Norman, Okla., watching the title game. I'd been waiting all my life for the Razorbacks to win a national championship. I always hoped it would be in football, but I wasn't going to quibble on this day.

Most of my friends were living in Arkansas, and, to this day, I can still only imagine how excited they must have been — more excited, probably, than they were when Gov. Bill Clinton was elected president less than two years before.

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In hindsight, I suppose it is easy to conclude that Corliss Williamson's presence on the team ensured its success, but I don't really think that is true. My friends who lived in Arkansas at the time — and got to see more Arkansas games than I did — might disagree with me, but I felt that it truly was a team effort.

Corliss was a special talent, of course. He was the Most Outstanding Player in the 1994 tournament — and might have been named the MOP again in 1995 if the Razorbacks had beaten UCLA in the national championship game that year.

But even in a sport like basketball. in which a team can put only five players on the court at a time, one person does not, cannot carry the whole load. Corliss had a great game 20 years ago tonight. He led all scorers with 23 points, but Corey Beck and Scotty Thurman contributed 15 points apiece.

That matched Antonio Lang's team–leading point production for Duke, which did a better job of spreading things around, I suppose. All five of Duke's starters were in double figures.

Williamson probably enjoyed more professional success than any of his collegiate teammates. After all, he did win an NBA title with the Detroit Pistons. But on this night in 1994, the Razorbacks prevailed not because of the depth of their bench but because of the depth of their hunger.

The Razorbacks of 1993–94 were the fruit of Richardson's system, the one he began installing in the lean years of the mid–1980s, when the team struggled on the court and Richardson's attention was divided between his job and his terminally ill daughter. The centerpiece was Williamson — he was clearly the go–to guy, hitting more than 62% of his shots from the field — but everyone played a role.

They called it "Forty Minutes of Hell." It was what happened when a team was relentless, always pressing, always probing for some weakness to exploit. And when it came to big shots, it seemed nearly everyone, not just Williamson, could be the hero.

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Like Thurman, for example.

The Razorbacks led Duke by a single point at halftime, then fell behind quickly in the second half and had to claw their way back.

In the final minute, with the game on the line, Thurman fired the shot that, while it may not have been heard around the world, certainly was heard from one side of Arkansas to the other.

And Arkansas won, 76–72.

I recorded a brand–new greeting for my answering machine that night. I had a recording of the Arkansas fight song, and I played it in the background while I recorded some routine message. If someone wanted to leave a message for me, it was necessary to listen to the Arkansas fight song all the way through.

I remember that, as the announcers counted down the final seconds of the game, one observed that "Arkansas is in hog heaven."

That seemed a little trite, a little obvious to me at the time, but now I realize that it was appropriate.

It was like when I was in college, and the football Razorbacks hosted the top–ranked Texas Longhorns one October Saturday afternoon. No one gave the Hogs a chance, but they whipped the Longhorns that afternoon, and "hog heaven" described the euphoric atmosphere in Fayetteville that night.

Texas was always the greatest rival on Arkansas' schedule, and knocking the Longhorns from the #1 perch was like a dream come true for Razorback fans.

Few experiences in my life have matched the way I felt that day — or how I felt 20 years ago tonight when Arkansas won the national championship in basketball.

In Arkansas, they'll be re–living the experience tonight via Twitter. Fans can experience it virtually as it happened — albeit, essentially, by text.

But a digital re–creation can't possibly match the real thing.

Shocking Phi Slama Jama

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"Sure, 15–footers are fine, but I like to dunk."

Clyde Drexler

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I've seen a few really noteworthy upsets in championship settings in my life.

Most of the time they seem to come in baseball — the Amazin' New York Mets of 1969 and the Kirk Gibson—led Los Angeles Dodgers of 1988 come to mind — and, occasionally, they come in football — when the Miami Hurricanes knocked off top–ranked Nebraska in the 1984 Orange Bowl, for example, or when Joe Namath took the New York Jets to a triumph in the third Super Bowl.

Sometime the outcome hinges on an obvious mistake. Perhaps it is a bad call, like the one that turned things around for the Kansas City Royals against the St. Louis Cardinals in 1985. Other times, it may be a poor strategic decision by a coach or a player.

And sometimes the upset occurs in an individual sport, not a team one — like when Mike Tyson lost his heavyweight title to Buster Douglas.

But of all the team sport championships in my memory that were not decided by a blown call or a blatantly poor decision by a coach or a player, there was one really epic upset, the NCAA Tournament finale between the University of Houston and North Carolina State played 30 years ago tonight.

Houston's Cougars were widely regarded as just too good to lose. The roster had Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler, the best and probably best–known members of "Texas' Tallest Fraternity" — Phi Slama Jama — but they had plenty of talented support from guys like Benny Anders, Larry Micheaux and Michael Young.

Phi Slama Jama specialized in dunking the ball. The players were big and physical, and they played in the last years when neither the shot clock nor the three–point shot existed in college basketball. If the game's pace had been faster or if making a long shot had been rewarded with an additional point, Phi Slama Jama might not have been as successful as it was.

But in its time, Houston went to back–to–back NCAA finals and lost both. In their second appearance, the Cougars went up against a pretty strong Georgetown team led by Patrick Ewing. My memory is that Houston's loss in that game really didn't surprise me. The Hoyas and the Cougars were considered to be evenly matched.

But the same could not be said of Houston's foe 30 years ago tonight, the North Carolina State Wolfpack. N.C. State barely managed to get in to the NCAA Tournament that year; the Wolfpack were seeded sixth in the West but won three cliffhangers en route to the Final Four.

Cliffhangers weren't anything new for the Wolfpack. They had to endure seven of them in their last nine games just to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. In so doing, they had earned the nickname "Cardiac Pack."

Top–ranked Houston, by comparison, had cruised through the tournament. In their national semifinal with #2 Louisville 48 hours earlier, the Cougars won by 13 points.

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It was probably the greatest Cinderella story in my lifetime — so far, anyway.

N.C. State was a huge underdog that night. I remember that, at the time, I was working for a small–town newspaper in central Arkansas, and I was covering a county government meeting that night. I covered these meetings on a regular basis, and I knew that, even though they tended to draw very small crowds, the officials tended to get into long–winded arguments about damn near everything.

In my experience, if one of those meetings was over in less than two hours, it was a miracle.

I was disheartened by this knowledge because I really wanted to see the game, and I was convinced that I would miss most, if not all, of it.

But fate seemed to be on my side. The meeting ended early. I asked a few of the officials some questions, and I left, certain that I could be home before tipoff.

As I walked out, a county police officer who always attended the meetings called out to me. We chatted for a few minutes, then I excused myself, explaining that I wanted to see the game.

"Who do you think will win?" he asked me as I started walking down the hall.

"Houston," I said, without hesitation. I simply couldn't imagine North Carolina State winning the game.

But I was wrong.

N.C. State led by eight points at halftime, then squandered the lead in the second half but rallied by exploiting Houston's Achilles' heel — free–throw shooting.

The Wolfpack frustrated the Cougars, fouling them every time they had their hands on the ball. Olajuwon fared pretty well, hitting six of seven attempts, but, as a team, Houston barely managed to sink half its free throws.

Phi Slama Jama's reputation was built on power ball. As Drexler said, he liked to dunk — as did the rest of the Cougars. Free throws weren't something on which they spent a lot of time.

Still, it took a slam dunk by Lorenzo Charles just before the buzzer to lift the Wolfpack to that improbable triumph.

Charles died nearly two years ago when the bus he was driving crashed.

Real Clear Sports recently named Charles as the top player who found fame in the NCAA Tournament.

The Wolfpack didn't find fame in the 1983 championship game. N.C. State had won a national crown before.

But the title they won 30 years ago tonight was their most memorable.

The Age of the Bruins

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I hear the word dynasty tossed around rather casually these days.

It seems to be applied to any team that might win a second straight championship in any sport. But two in a row simply doesn't mean that much to folks of my generation. That isn't what we think of when we think of the word dynasty.

When I was growing up, everyone knew the real definition of the word. It was visible whenever the UCLA basketball team took the court — especially in the early '70s.

In fact, in the early 1970s, the UCLA basketball team put together what is likely to be the longest Division I winning streak ever — 88 wins in a row from 1971 to 1974.

Forty years ago tonight, the Bruins were in pursuit of their second straight perfect season. Not just a national title. It had become routine for UCLA to win national titles. The Bruins weren't always undefeated, but they usually won the national championship.

Maybe that was what it took to light a fire under basketball players from whom championships were expected. A perfect record was on the line this time.

On this night in St. Louis in 1973, they were looking for their seventh consecutive national title. Think about that for a minute. Can you imagine any college program in any sport maintaining that kind of dominance for seven consecutive years?

It's really more remarkable than that. In 12 seasons — from 1963–1964 to 1974–1975 — coach John Wooden led UCLA to 10 national titles.

Now, I don't want to say anything that detracts in any way from what Wooden achieved.

But the truth is that Bill Walton was the real story of the Bruins' victory over Memphis State 40 years ago tonight. He scored 44 points, making 21 of 22 field goal attempts.

It was an amazing performance to watch. Walton was unstoppable, and so was UCLA. It was the era of the Bruins' dominance — long before Duke became a fixture in the Final Four. It was inconceivable in those days that UCLA would not win the national title.

And, in 1973, it was inconceivable that UCLA would lose — ever.

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Of course, the Bruins did lose eventually — nothing lasts forever — but not on this night in 1973.

UCLA has enjoyed a few other championship seasons since the one 40 years ago, but it seems safe to say that this night in 1973 was the program's peak — not unlike when Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers dismantled John Elway and the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXIV.

There really were no more worlds to conquer.

Neither team will be commemorating the 40th anniversary of that game with a return trip to the championship. Both were invited to the tournament, but neither survived opening weekend. UCLA was humbled by Minnesota on Friday night, and Memphis (the State part was dropped many years ago) was eliminated by Michigan State on Saturday.

But even if one (or both) could have played in this year's final, it's hard to see how what happened on this night in 1973 could possibly be topped.

Who Will Play for National Crown?

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" 'Ass' is okay providing you're riding into town on a religious feast day."

George Carlin

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With so much on the line in Saturday night's game between top–ranked Notre Dame and unranked Southern California, I suppose churches can be forgiven for getting into the act.

It's a big rivalry, anyway, but with a trip to the national championship game hanging in the balance for one — and the desire to deprive the first of that honor motivating the second — I suppose the stakes were just too great.

Well, Notre Dame won the game and, presumably, will be in the title game.

But it remains to be seen who will play against the Irish in January.

Logic says it will be the winner of the SEC Championship game between #2 Alabama and #3 Georgia tomorrow. And I would tend to agree with that — if Alabama wins the game. But if Georgia wins, I think a compelling case could be made for #5 Florida even though Georgia will almost certainly wind up facing Notre Dame if the Bulldogs defeat Alabama (who, it is worth noting, went on to play for and win the national championship last season even though the Crimson Tide did not play for the SEC title).

The Gators are 11–1, same as Georgia and Alabama. They did lose their head–to–head matchup with Georgia a month ago (17–9), but they hammered a South Carolina team that had hammered Georgia two weeks before.

And the Gators did something Alabama couldn't do. They beat Texas A&M on the road. Alabama couldn't beat the Aggies at home.

The stakes are high in the SEC Championship game. The winner, of course, is widely expected to face Notre Dame in the championship game.

But the loser?

Chip Towers of the Atlanta Journal–Constitution contends that the loser of Saturday's game will take a considerable tumble in the bowl picture even though it will only be the second loss for whichever team comes up short.

Idle: #1 Notre Dame, #4 Ohio State, #5 Florida, #6 Oregon, #9 LSU, #10 Texas A&M, #11 South Carolina, #15 Clemson, #16 Oregon, #20 Utah State, #21 Michigan, #22 Northwestern

Friday

• MAC Championship: #19 Northern Illinois at #18 Kent State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Neither of these 11–1 teams has lost since early September.
  
  Kent State has a 10–game winning streak on the line, and Northern Illinois has an 11–game winning streak at risk.
  
  They didn't play each other this season so there is no head–to–head outcome to give us guidance.
  
  Historically, the series belongs to Northern Illinois, which has never lost to Kent State on its home turf (10–0). Unfortunately for the Huskies, the game is being played at Kent State. Northern Illinois has been very successful there, too — 6–3 — but not quite as successful.
  
  The teams don't play every year, but Northern Illinois has only lost at Kent once in 30 years. And Northern Illinois has only lost once to Kent State — no matter where the game has been played — in their last 10 meetings.
  
  That doesn't bode well for the Golden Flashes although the game should be quite a conference showcase.
  
  Half a dozen backs racked up 1,000 yards or more this season, and three (Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch and Kent State's Dri Archer and Trayion Durham) will be suiting up for the championship.
  
  Lynch was also the MAC's fifth–best passer — which would be expected, I guess, from the nation's 16th–best offense (Kent was 63rd).
  
  Northern Illinois also has the better defense (ranked #7 in the nation compared to Kent's #73 ranking).
  
  I pick Northern Illinois.
• Pac–12 Championship: #17 UCLA at #8 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have been playing each other every year since the end of World War II.
  
  And it's tempting, given the fact that these teams played each other last weekend, to predict a repeat of what happened in Los Angeles last Saturday.
  
  To refresh your memory, Stanford won that game, 35–17. It was Stanford's second consecutive win on UCLA's home turf.
  
  Now the scene shifts to the north, to Stanford's home turf — where UCLA has won only twice in the last 15 years.
  
  UCLA might have the offense to get the job done. The Bruins ranked 21st in the nation (Stanford ranked 83rd). And if the game turns into a shootout, one would expect UCLA to have the upper hand. After all, offense — not defense — has long been the conference's strength.
  
  But if it turns out to be a defensive struggle, Stanford has the advantage. Stanford ranks 19th in the nation; UCLA is 77th.
  
  The weather may dictate which it is.
  
  The forecast for tonight is temperatures in the 50s with an 80% chance of rain (after a day in which the probability of rain is 100%). That suggests that defense may dominate on a sloppy field.
  
  It's awfully hard for one football team to beat another twice in one year, but I will pick Stanford to pull it off.

Saturday

• SEC Championship: #3 Georgia vs. #2 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Playing in the SEC Championship game is not a new experience for Alabama.
  
  The Crimson Tide has played in seven since the conference title game made its debut in 1992 — more appearances than any other SEC West team and all against Florida.
  
  Georgia is no stranger to the SEC Championship game, either. The Bulldogs will be playing in their fifth.
  
  You would think that these schools would be natural border rivals, but the truth is they haven't faced each other since 2008.
  
  And even if they faced each other every year, there are at least three other schools that Alabama has long–standing rivalries with — LSU, Auburn and Florida.
  
  Alabama is one of those schools that is everyone's rival when the Crimson Tide appears on the schedule.
  
  Georgia's been good this season, but Alabama has the nation's best defense. And the SEC has always been a bastion for great defense. Georgia's offense is ranked 24th, which is pretty good, but how effective can it be against the best defense in the land?
  
  Alabama's offense is ranked 43rd, which isn't bad, but Georgia's defense is ranked 22nd in the nation — all of which suggests a low–scoring contest.
  
  And I'm going to predict that, in an upset, Georgia will win.
• #23 Texas at #7 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There aren't many schools that can claim to have the upper hand in a series with Texas.
  
  But Kansas State can. The Wildcats are 7–5 against the Longhorns, and they're 6–2 against UT since the formation of the Big 12 in the mid–'90s.
  
  K–State might still be mentioned — probably would be — in the national championship conversation if not for the 52–24 loss that Baylor hung on the Wildcats last weekend. That, alone, should provide plenty of motivation for the Wildcats.
  
  When Texas has the ball, the Longhorns' #33 offense should be evenly matched with K–State's #40 defense. When Kansas State has the ball, it seems likely the Wildcats will have the edge. Their offense is ranked only #55, but Texas' woeful defense is ranked #79.
  
  I think Kansas State will win the game.
• #12 Oklahoma at TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the first time these teams have faced each other as members of the same conference, but they are hardly strangers.
  
  They have played 11 times in the past, and Oklahoma leads the series, 7–4.
  
  TCU has a good team, but I'm not sure the Frogs have what it takes to beat OU, even at home.
  
  The marquee matchup should occur when OU has the ball. The Sooners' offense is ninth in the nation, but it should be adequately tested by TCU's defense, which is ranked 14th.
  
  The Sooner' #44 defense should be evenly matched with TCU's offense (#55), which leads me to believe the Sooners will have the upper hand.
  
  I pick Oklahoma.
• ACC Championship: #13 Florida State at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is kind of an odd series.
  
  From 1955 to 1975, Georgia Tech was 6–0–1 against Florida State, but then the Seminoles reeled off 12 straight wins from 1992 to 2003.
  
  The teams didn't play again until 2008, but Tech won that year and again in 2009. They haven't played since.
  
  Georgia Tech lost its leading rusher, Orwin Smith, to a sprained ankle against Georgia last Saturday, but he hopes to be back in the lineup for the ACC Championship game.
  
  That would be good news for Tech fans, whose 28th–ranked offense likely will struggle with Florida State's second–ranked defense even with Smith in the lineup. Tech's 59th–ranked defense, meanwhile, can be expected to have a hard time containing Florida State's 19th–ranked offense.
  
  I think Florida State will win the game.
• Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin at #14 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If you're a fan of defense, this might be the game for you.
  
  Both defenses rank in the Top 15 nationally (Wisconsin is #11, Nebraska is #15). Nebraska's offense (#24) seems much better equipped to handle that challenge than Wisconsin's (#84).
  
  As a result, I have to pick Nebraska to win.
• #24 Oklahoma State at Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Oklahoma State has only lost to Baylor once since 1994, and the Cowboys currently have a six–game winning streak against the Bears.
  
  The teams combined for 83 points in each of their last two meetings, but, if anything, their offenses appear to be capable of doing even better than that this time. Baylor is ranked second in the nation, OSU is ranked fifth.
  
  But Baylor has the next–to–worst defense in the nation. The Bears were able to overcome that in their game with Kansas State next week, but I don't see how they can manage that two weeks in a row.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.
• #25 Boise State at Nevada, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's really hard for me to see how Boise State can lose this game.
  
  Historically, Boise dominates the series, leading 11–4. Boise has only lost to Nevada once since 1999.
  
  Nevada, however, has the #10 offense in the land, which should make for some intriguing clashes when Boise's eighth–ranked defense is on the field.
  
  Boise State's offense is only #79 in the country — a considerable tumble from recent years — but that should produce another even match since Nevada's defense is ranked 86th.
  
  There's a natural inclination within me (as there is within many people) to pull for the underdog, and, if I watch this game on Saturday, I'll probably pull for Nevada since the Wolf Pack are almost certain to be the underdogs (given their history against Boise State).
  
  But logic tells me Boise State will win.

Last week: 13–6

Season: 203–55

All Shook Up

---

---

The college football landscape shifted last weekend when Texas A&M upset the top–ranked team in the nation, Alabama.

And some Aggie hearts beat a little faster at the thought of playing in the SEC Championship game next month — but the fact is that Alabama, which is still the highest–ranked team in the SEC, almost certainly will be playing for the conference title.

Alabama has only one conference game remaining — against 2–8 Auburn in the 71st edition of the Iron Bowl next Saturday. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but the notion that this Auburn team might hand Alabama its second conference loss is just a little far–fetched, it seems to me.

However, just to play devil's advocate, let's say that Auburn pulls off an upset. That could mean a tie in the SEC West with either Texas A&M or LSU or both. That much isn't clear yet. A&M might stumble against Missouri, and LSU might falter against Ole Miss or Arkansas. Neither is likely, but they remain possible until the games are played.

What would be clear is that the SEC's streak of six consecutive national titles will end.

That may be the case, anyway. Top–ranked Oregon may be playing for the national title in January, but the Ducks must beat three straight ranked teams to get there.

Kansas State might be able to punch its ticket for the January showdown in its last two games, but that remains to be seen — as it does for the nation's third–ranked team, Notre Dame.

The next couple of weeks promise to be very interesting.

Idle: #18 Texas, #20 Louisville

Today

• #14 Stanford at #1 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I know there is a lot of talk on the West Coast these days about Oregon possibly playing for the national championship.
  
  Such talk was going on even before Alabama lost to Texas A&M last weekend, but now that Oregon is in the top spot, I suppose it has accelerated.
  
  Certainly, Alabama's loss put additional pressure on the Ducks, who were sure to be feeling more stress this week, anyway, with their upcoming game against #14 Stanford — and, if the Ducks win that one, there will be even more pressure when they face their in–state rivals from Oregon State the following week.
  
  Then, of course, if the Ducks win those two games, there will be the pressure of the Pac–12 Championship game, which figures to be against the winner of today's game between USC and UCLA.
  
  Neither Kansas State nor Notre Dame will have to play in a conference championship game, but the Irish will have to play #21 Southern Cal on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
  
  In fact, K–State may have the easiest road to the national championship game of the top three. After facing Baylor this weekend, the Wildcats have the next week off before closing the season against #18 Texas. (Not that beating Texas will be easy, but at least the Wildcats will get to face the Longhorns on their home turf.)
  
  But back to the Oregon–Stanford game ...
  
  The historical record suggests that Stanford would be a lot better off playing this game at home where the Cardinal have beaten the Ducks nearly 63% of the time. When the game has been played in Eugene, the Ducks have been victorious more than half the time.
  
  Oregon has by far the better offense. Ranked third in the country, it is light years ahead of Stanford's 84th–ranked offense.
  
  It's not entirely bleak for Stanford, though. The Cardinal defense may pose the stiffest challenge that Oregon will face in Pac–12 play this year (even though the Oregon State game is looming next week).
  
  But I still think Oregon will prevail at home.
• #2 Kansas State at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Well, even though KSU is undefeated and Baylor is just barely flirting with the .500 mark, this might not be quite so easy for the Wildcats.
  
  KSU is 4–0 at home against Baylor, but the Wildcats are just 3–2 at Waco — and Baylor has beaten K–State the last two times they have played there.
  
  The Bears have the better offense by far. Baylor is #2 in the nation in that category (compared to K–State at #47). But defense, they say, wins championships, and the Wildcats' 34th–ranked defense is much better than Baylor's (#120).
  
  I figure KSU will have its ups and downs against Baylor's offense — but when the Wildcats have the ball, they almost can't help being productive against the Baylor defense. Only one of Baylor's 10 opponents has failed to score at least 23 points, and most have scored at least 35. Kansas State, on the other hand, has scored 44 points or more six times this season.
  
  (Some of those points were scored by the defense, but most of them were scored on offense.)
  
  It seems obvious to me that Kansas State will win this game.
• Wake Forest at #3 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams met for the first time last season, and Notre Dame, en route to an 8–5 mark, won the game, 24–17.
  
  That game was played at Wake Forest. This time, the teams meet in South Bend.
  
  As I mentioned, Notre Dame has the challenge of facing USC next week, but, as long as the Irish don't overlook the 5–5 Demon Deacons, they ought to be undefeated when they face the Trojans.
  
  After all, Notre Dame's eighth–ranked defense should dispose of Wake Forest's 111th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has been adequate but not great, Wake Forest's defense appears ill–equipped to stop it.
  
  Notre Dame should win.
• Western Carolina at #4 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I can't understand why anyone would want to televise this game — but, for some reason, many teams in the Top 25 are facing non–Division 1–A opponents this weekend — and, barring any extremely unforeseen developments, they should have no trouble.
  
  One would think that Alabama, with the second–best defense in the land, would be unimpressed with Western Carolina. I fully expect Alabama to win.
• Georgia Southern at #5 Georgia: This game has a lot in common with the Alabama game — one of the best SEC teams is playing at home against a non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Unless something really unexpected happens, I believe Georgia will win.
• #6 Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams almost always have winning records when they face each other.
  
  And Ohio State almost always wins.
  
  The Buckeyes have been much more successful at home, but they've been successful against Wisconsin wherever the game has been played. At Wisconsin, Ohio State is 25–11–2 — but the Badgers have won two of the last three games that were played there.
  
  And logic suggests that, if Wisconsin can make it three of four, the Badgers (who would then be 8–3) will return to the Top 25.
  
  I think it should be a good game. Ohio State has the better offense, but Wisconsin's defense currently ranks in the Top 20 nationally — and should be up to the task of stopping the Buckeyes.
  
  I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Wisconsin in a mild upset.
• Jacksonville State at #7 Florida: Like the Alabama and Georgia games, I see no reason why the home team should lose to this non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Florida should win easily.
• Ole Miss at #8 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Known as the "Magnolia Bowl," this rivalry dates back to the 19th century.
  
  Its heyday came in the 1950s and 1960s, when both teams brought lofty rankings and winning records into their annual clashes (they even met in the Sugar Bowl once).
  
  In a sort of general view of sports history, not much has changed for LSU, which is ranked eighth in the land, but Ole Miss (5–5) has struggled.
  
  Ole Miss has the better offense, but LSU's defense (#3 in the nation) seems well prepared for it.
  
  That — and home field, where LSU is 37–23–1 against Ole Miss — seems likely to propel LSU to victory.
• Sam Houston State at #9 Texas A&M: This must seem like a real breather to the Aggies, who have won eight of their last nine games (the exception being a five–point loss to LSU last month).
  
  And, after winning on the road against the top–ranked team in the nation last week, Texas A&M simply can't be impressed with Sam Houston State.
  
  A BCS bowl berth is possible for the Aggies if they keep their eyes on the prize, and I see no reason why they shouldn't do that today. Texas A&M should win this game.
• #10 Florida State at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much reason, frankly, for Maryland fans to watch this game — either in person or on TV.
  
  Historically, Florida State has won 20 of the 22 meetings between the schools and has never lost at home — so I guess there is one good thing about this game for Maryland fans. It's being played in College Park, not Tallahassee.
  
  It could be depressing for Terps fans when they have the ball. Maryland's offense is the worst in the land while Florida State's defense is the best. Things might be much better for Maryland when Florida State has the ball. The Seminoles are #11 in the country in offense, but the Terps, who are 16th in defense, might be able to stop them.
  
  One wonders, though, if the Terps might stop themselves. Statistically, Maryland's offense is –10 in turnovers, and the thought of cashing in on that and beefing up the defensive statistics must be motivating for FSU's defense.
  
  On the flip side, I wonder if Florida State can maintain its focus, knowing that its annual rivalry game with #7 Florida is only a week away.
  
  Can Maryland win? I doubt it. I pick Florida State.
• North Carolina State at #11 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When North Carolina State beat Clemson last year, it snapped a seven–game Clemson winning streak against the Wolfpack.
  
  But the 6–4 Wolfpack still have plenty to play for — like a more prestigious bowl appearance — and Clemson could well be distracted by next week's game with South Carolina.
  
  But if Clemson's offense (seventh in the nation) remains focused, it should be able to dominate N.C. State's defense (61st in the country) and give the Tigers the winning edge. I figure Clemson's defense (#57 in the land) is evenly matched with N.C. State's offense (#59).
  
  I pick Clemson.
• Wofford at #12 South Carolina: I really thought South Carolina would struggle after losing its marquee running back to an injury a few weeks ago.
  
  But the Gamecocks have persevered, and they should be 9–2 after beating this non–Division 1–A foe — if they don't start daydreaming about their game next week against #11 Clemson.
  
  I don't think they will. I think South Carolina will win.
• #13 Oklahoma at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It should be rather cold in West Virginia tonight.
  
  I used to live in Oklahoma so I know the OU players are accustomed to the cold weather, but this isn't like what they have been dealing with lately. It's going to be in the mid–50s (at best) during the day, and temperatures are expected to decline rapidly after the sun goes down.
  
  It's a modest series to date — only four games have been played — and the teams have never played in Morgantown so this will be a first — and a chilly one at that.
  
  The offenses are pretty even — OU is #16, West Virginia is #18 — so that means defenses probably will be decisive — and that is where OU (#20) has a huge edge over West Virginia (#110).
  
  I predict that Oklahoma will win.
• California at #15 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: I'm sure it must be tempting for the Beavers to overlook the Bears with the showdown with #1 Oregon coming up next week, but a loss to the Bears would knock Oregon State out of the running for the Pac–12 championship game.
  
  Well, they're probably out of the running for that, anyway, what with Stanford and Oregon playing each other today. Oregon is undefeated and Stanford only has one loss in Pac–12 play whereas Oregon State has two conference losses. Logic says the winner of the Oregon–Stanford game will represent the division in the conference championship game.
  
  But, as this day begins, a three–way tie at the top of the division is still mathematically possible and, if that happens, I don't know what the Pac–12's tiebreaker would be.
  
  If there is to be such a tie, two things must happen this week: Stanford must beat Oregon this afternoon and Oregon State must beat California tonight.
  
  I have already predicted that Stanford will not hold up its end of the bargain, but Oregon State has a significantly better defense than California. Both offenses are rather average so defense figures to dominate in this game.
  
  Consequently, I will pick Oregon State.
• Minnesota at #16 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I have found that many people mistakenly believe that, because Nebraska is a newcomer to the Big Ten, its series with most of the members of the conference are rather sparse.
  
  That may well be the case with some of the schools, but Nebraska has a long history with Minnesota. They've played 52 times — but last year, Nebraska's first in the Big Ten, was the first time the teams had faced each other in more than two decades.
  
  Nebraska's win in 2011 was its 15th straight against Minnesota. The Gophers haven't beaten the Cornhuskers since 1960, and it is hard to imagine 6–4 Minnesota topping an 8–2 Nebraska team that has lost only to #17 UCLA and #6 Ohio State.
  
  Especially since Nebraska enjoys such a huge advantage on offense (the Cornhuskers are #17 in the country while Minnesota is #96). Minnesota actually has the edge on defense, but it is narrow (Minnesota is #25; Nebraska is #28).
  
  On the strength of a superior offense and the home field advantage, I choose Nebraska.
• #21 USC at #17 UCLA, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was a kid, the USC–UCLA game was one of the top rivalry games that was televised every year — usually during the Thanksgiving season.
  
  USC usually won the game as it has throughout history (the Trojans have won about 61% of the time, and they've won 12 of the last 13) — but the thing that should concern this USC football team about this UCLA team is that UCLA has the #13 offense in the nation — and the third best in the Pac–12, a conference that is known for flashy offenses.
  
  Southern Cal has a pretty good offense, too (#28), and logic says it shouldn't have much trouble with UCLA's #75 defense. But neither should UCLA's offense have too much difficulty with USC's #58 defense.
  
  It seems to me to be a matter of which offense executes its game plan the most effectively. I'm guessing it will be UCLA.
• Utah State at #19 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Here's something I'll bet you didn't know — Louisiana Tech has the top–ranked offense in the nation.
  
  OK, maybe you did know it, but even if Utah State knows it, it can't be very encouraging — especially since Louisiana Tech has won six of the last seven meetings between the schools.
  
  Tech (9–1) should not take the 8–2 Aggies lightly, though. That Bulldog offense will be taking on the 12th–best defense in the nation. And Tech's offense better come through because Tech has one of the worst defenses in the nation while Utah State's offense is 28th.
  
  I pick Utah State.
• #22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: This series dates back to 1980, but it has really only been a regular thing since the teams became conference rivals.
  
  It's one of those series that goes in waves. Back in the 1980s, Rutgers was the regular winner, then they played a couple of times in what was, in hindsight, a transitional period in the 1990s (split decision), and Cincinnati has been the dominant program in the early 21st century (although Rutgers did snap a five–game Bearcat winning streak in the series last year).
  
  If it is true that defense wins championships — or, at least, wins games — Rutgers, with its 14th–ranked defense, should have no trouble with Cincinnati (98th in the nation in offense).
  
  Cincinnati's defense (#44) might be able to compete with Rutgers' offense (#33), but if the Rutgers defense forces Cincinnati to commit turnovers (and Rutgers has been particularly good at making the other team fumble the ball away this season), it really might not matter what happens when Rutgers has the ball.
  
  I pick Rutgers.
• #23 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This really should be an entertaining game.
  
  Both offenses are in the Top 10. OSU's is slightly better, but it will have the challenge of facing Tech's 18th–ranked defense.
  
  Tech's three losses have been to ranked teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas). OSU has lost to Texas and K–State, too; OU is coming up next week. The Bedlam Series is always a big attention grabber in Oklahoma, and OSU has been good enough — and successful enough — in recent years (the Cowboys snapped an eight–game losing streak to the Sooners last year) to make folks in Oklahoma wonder if OSU can win two in a row against OU for only the seventh time in the last century.
  
  The Cowboys can't afford to be distracted by such thoughts this week — but my guess is they will. Texas Tech in what may well be regarded as an upset.
• Iowa at #23 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series is more than a century old, and Michigan has been in the driver's seat practically from the beginning.
  
  Well, Iowa did win the first encounter back in 1900 — but then won only one of the next 16. A pattern was set.
  
  Iowa fans are not accustomed to experiencing losing seasons, but the prospect is suddenly very real, now that the 4–6 Hawkeyes are on a four–game losing streak and must defeat both Michigan today and #16 Nebraska next week to finish 6–6.
  
  Michigan's offense hasn't been too horrifying, but the Wolverines' defense, which is 11th in the nation, has been.
  
  And it is because of the defense that I pick Michigan to win.
• #25 Kent State at Bowling Green, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have faced each other every year since 1962, and Bowling Green has thoroughly dominated the series, 40–9.
  
  Only recently has Kent made a series of it, winning the last two and three of the last six.
  
  And Kent (9–1) might make it three in a row with its superior offense.
  
  But Bowling Green (7–3) has the sixth–best defense in the country. The Falcons have only given up 20 points or more three times — but they have lost on all three occasions.
  
  I tend to favor good defenses, especially when the weather turns cold — as it is sure to be in Ohio this weekend.
  
  Consequently, I pick Bowling Green.

Last week: 17–4

Season: 174–44

National Championship Dreamin'

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Alabama's Bear Bryant (left) and Notre Dame's Ara Parseghian
faced each other for the national championship on Dec. 31, 1973.

---

At this point, of course, no one knows who will play in the BCS National Championship game in January.

It's logical to assume that the top–ranked team, Alabama, will be in it — but Texas A&M might have something to say about that this Saturday.

Beyond that, I suppose, it is a matter of whimsy — but it is something in which every college football fan engages at some point in the season, and, with only a few weeks remaining in this one, most fans are already thinking about who might be playing for the national title.

It isn't hard to imagine Oregon playing in the big game. After all, the Ducks have been in the national championship conversation for the last few years.

Nor does it require a great deal of imagination to picture teams like Georgia or Florida State or LSU playing for all the marbles — although teams with two losses (like LSU) really need a lot of things to happen just so if they are to have a prayer.

Personally, I've been fantasizing about Notre Dame playing Alabama.

When I was a boy, those teams played for the national title in the 1973 Sugar Bowl, and there were those who said Notre Dame's 24–23 victory was one of the greatest games ever played.

That was quite a compliment, given all the other great games that were played between great teams led by great coaches over the years — but especially in those days.

And what else would one expect in a game that had Bear Bryant on one sideline and Ara Parseghian on the other?

Idle: #5 Ohio State

Today

• #8 Florida State at Virginia Tech, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN Before the season began, this was probably viewed as a marquee November matchup. The teams are perennial Top 25 squads who have met in ACC title games twice since 2005.
  
  Florida State is ranked and has hopes of landing a BCS bowl berth, but Virginia Tech has staggered to a 4–5 record.
  
  Frankly, Florida State just looks too powerful. The Seminoles have the fifth–ranked offense and the top–ranked defense.
  
  I don't think Virginia Tech will be able to compete. I pick Florida State.

Saturday

• #15 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: I have a friend who is a graduate of Texas &M, and he's been pointing to this game all season — initially, with dread, but, as the Aggies have gathered momentum, his mood has improved.
  
  "I guess we're the real deal," he said in an email following A&M's victory over Mississippi State last weekend.
  
  Well, this will be the ultimate test. Top–ranked Alabama has had the top–ranked defense most of the season — until it was replaced by Florida State recently. But the Crimson Tide is ranked second. (The Aggies, who have sometimes shown glimpses of their defensive DNA — going back to the "Wrecking Crew" of a few decades ago, are ranked 46th in that category.)
  
  The Aggies' offense, though, might give 'Bama its stiffest challenge to date. A&M is fifth in offense (Alabama is 48th).
  
  I expect a close game, but I'll give home team Alabama the nod.
• #2 Oregon at California, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Cal has a five–game edge in the series, but Oregon is 11–4 in the last 15 meetings. And, frankly, it's hard for me to see how Cal can be competitive in this game.
  
  Oregon has the fourth–best offense in the nation (Cal's is 64th). In a conference known historically for its offense, that is saying something. The Ducks also have a decent defense, ranked 50th (which is better than Cal at #73).
  
  Someone may prevent the Ducks from playing in the national title game, but I doubt it will be the Bears. Oregon will win this game.
• #3 Kansas State at TCU: It's been a quarter of a century since these teams met, but a lot of things have changed.
  
  Both teams were bottom feeders when they last met, but K–State may well be playing for a national title at the end of the season, and TCU was in the national championship conversation not so long ago.
  
  If a few things had gone right for TCU this year, in fact, this game could have been a Top 25 showdown. Even so, unranked TCU has had some pretty good moments — like the Frogs' double–overtime win at West Virginia last week — and may yet be back in the rankings.
  
  (K–State won at West Virginia, too, but didn't come close to requiring an extra period to do it.)
  
  This game has real potential to be a trap for KSU. The Wildcats have a narrow advantage over the Frogs on offense, but the Frogs have a somewhat wider advantage on defense.
  
  It is worth noting, though, that KSU has scored 50 points or more in five of its nine games. TCU has exceeded 50 points twice — and once was in triple overtime.
  
  I think Kansas State will win, but the Wildcats have to be careful that they don't look ahead to their games with Baylor and Texas. TCU can be dangerous.
• #4 Notre Dame at Boston College, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: A funny thing almost happened to Notre Dame en route to the national championship game. The Irish almost lost to upset–minded Pittsburgh last week, but they survived a real thriller in overtime.
  
  Now the Irish must face 2–7 Boston College. It would be tempting to take BC lightly, but the memory of the Pitt game is too fresh and the goal of an unbeaten season is too close to fruition.
  
  Notre Dame's 10th–ranked defense should have little trouble with BC's 90th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has struggled at times, it should be able to handle BC's 109th–ranked defense.
  
  Notre Dame should remain undefeated.
• #5 Georgia at Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams first met in 1892, and the series has become known as the "Deep South's oldest rivalry."
  
  And if Auburn could win the game, it would have 51 victories — the same number of victories Georgia has — in the series.
  
  But Georgia has won five of the last six games, and the teams are heading in different directions this season. Georgia is on course for a showdown with top–ranked Alabama in the SEC Championship game while Auburn is winless in SEC play.
  
  Georgia also enjoys decided advantages on both sides of the ball. Even the home field won't help Auburn in this one. I believe Georgia will win.
• Louisiana–Lafayette at #7 Florida, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: You know, I could go into all the reasons why Florida should win this game.
  
  But why bother? It should be obvious. Florida will win.
• #22 Mississippi State at #9 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is a tough assignment for LSU, coming off its emotional loss to Alabama last week.
  
  The twice–beaten Tigers are now out of the national championship picture and the conference championship picture — and they must face Mississippi State, also a recent loser to Alabama.
  
  On offense, there appears to be little difference between these two teams. LSU is ranked #71, Mississippi State is #73. That leads me to believe that the game will be decided by defense. And if that is the case, there seems to be no question that LSU, ranked third in that category, will have the edge. Mississippi State's defense is adequate, but it is not really comparable to LSU.
  
  LSU is 19–1 against Mississippi State since 1992 and hasn't lost to the Bulldogs at home since 1991. The Tigers also haven't lost two games in a row since the 2008 season — and that was the first time they lost two in a row since 2002. It just doesn't happen.
  
  I feel safe in picking LSU to win.
• Maryland at #10 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have been playing annually since 1952, and success has come in waves for both.
  
  The waves were a little stronger and lasted a little longer until about a decade ago. Before the new millennium, it wasn't unusual for one team to roll up five straight wins or more against the other. Since 2000, though, the longest winning streak for either has been three, and two straight wins have been the norm.
  
  Clemson has won the last two meetings so recent history would suggest that it is Maryland's turn. And the Terps have won two of the last three games they have played at Clemson so it isn't as if this is an impossible assignment. In this series, Maryland has been almost as successful on the road as it has been at home.
  
  But Clemson has the nation's ninth–best offense — which should be challenged by Maryland's 11th–ranked defense. Maryland's big problem is its defense, which would be the worst in the land if not for Kentucky.
  
  When all is said and done, I think Clemson will prevail.
• #11 Louisville at Syracuse: There was a time in this series when Syracuse clearly had the upper hand, but, since 2003, Louisville has won six of eight contests.
  
  The most intriguing moments of the game seem likely to come when Syracuse's #26 offense takes the field against Louisville's #29 defense. But they might be just as evenly matched, although not as talented, when Louisville's #45 offense has the ball against Syracuse's #42 defense.
  
  I'm tempted to take Syracuse at home, but Louisville is unbeaten and Syracuse is 4–5. Louisville might get sloppy the week before the season finale against #24 Rutgers, but that is three weeks from now. I'll take Louisville.
• Arkansas at #12 South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: My alma mater returns to the Top 25 — but as a visitor.
  
  That's a far cry from what I expected. Based on what they had returning this year, I figured they would be in the Top 10 at this point in the season. I sure didn't expect them to be 4–5.
  
  While I was as horrified as anyone at the injury to Marcus Lattimore, I would be foolish not to recognize that it can only help the Hogs if he isn't in the lineup.
  
  Currently, Arkansas has the edge on offense. In spite of some dreadful early season performances, the offense seems to have mostly righted itself, and the Hogs enter this game ranked 46th in that category while South Carolina is 86th.
  
  But South Carolina has the #12 defense in the nation whereas Arkansas is #72.
  
  In the 20 times the teams have played since joining the SEC back in 1992, the Hogs lead the series, 13–7, but they've built their advantage at home. On the road, the teams are tied, 5–5.
  
  And, although it pains me to say, I think South Carolina will make it 6–5 at home.
• #13 Oregon State at #16 Stanford, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Oregon State is one of the Cinderella stories of the year.
  
  Oregon State was 8–16 in the last two seasons, but if the Beavers can defeat Stanford, they will have won as many games this season as they won in the last two combined.
  
  And they will set themselves up as the last realistic challenger to in–state rival Oregon in their Pac–12 division.
  
  But Stanford won't be an easy win for Oregon State. In a conference that is known for offense, these teams have been succeeding with good defense. Stanford's is ranked 15th, Oregon State's is ranked 30th.
  
  The Beavers have a much better offense than Stanford, but the defenses are the stars, and I think Stanford's will turn back the challenge.
• Baylor at #14 Oklahoma: In this series, the 20th time was the charm for Baylor.
  
  Baylor and Oklahoma played for the first time in 1973, and the Sooners won the first 19 games they played. But last year, Baylor finally got its first victory over Oklahoma as Robert Griffin III probably secured his Heisman Trophy with a 45–38 triumph in Waco.
  
  Well, RGIII is gone now, and the rematch will be in Norman, where the Sooners are 10–0 against the Bears.
  
  But Baylor is doing just fine on offense. In fact, the Bears are ranked #1 in the nation in total offense (the Sooners are 14th). But Oklahoma's defense, ranked 17th in the nation, may be better equipped to handle Baylor than Baylor is to handle OU. The Bears' defense is currently the worst in the nation.
  
  This ought to be an entertaining game, and I pick Oklahoma to win it.
• #17 UCLA at Washington State, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: UCLA leads the all–time series by more than 20 games.
  
  I'm inclined to think the Bruins will add to their advantage. They've won the last four meetings, and they've been better on both sides of the ball this season. I pick UCLA.
• Penn State at #18 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 15th time these teams have faced each other, and the winner will break a 7–7 tie in the all–time series.
  
  Both teams have been successful against the other at home. This year, Penn State's defense has been slightly better than Nebraska's. Nebraska, on the other hand, has been much more successful on offense. That, along with the home field, should lift Nebraska to victory.
• #19 Louisiana Tech at Texas State, 6 p.m. (Central) on Longhorn Network: I'm not sure why this game is being televised.
  
  I know nothing about Texas State, and I can't imagine why anyone would pick against Louisiana Tech in this game. I certainly won't.
• Iowa State at #19 Texas, 11 a.m. (Central) on Longhorn Network: This will be the 10th time that these teams have played, and Iowa State won only once — when they met in Austin two years ago.
  
  This time, there will be a certain emotion in the air as the Longhorns and their fans pay tribute to the late Darrell Royal, who died yesterday.
  
  Neither defense has been very impressive this season, but the Longhorns have been much better than Iowa State on offense. I don't think it matters, though. I expect Texas to prevail.
• Arizona State at #21 Southern Cal, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: Over the years, Southern Cal has won nearly two–thirds of its contests with Arizona State.
  
  The location of the game — Arizona or California — doesn't really matter although Southern Cal has had more of a tendency to win the home games than the road ones.
  
  In 2012, Southern Cal has the 25th–rated offense, but ASU isn't far behind in that category at #31.
  
  And the Sun Devils have a distinct advantage on defense, where they are #24 (compared to Southern Cal at #65).
  
  While it bucks the historical trend, I'll go with Arizona State.
• #23 Toledo at Akron: In the eight times these teams have met, Akron has won twice — but those wins bookended the other six.
  
  Akron won the last time these teams faced each other, on Nov. 5, 2008, ending a six–game losing streak.
  
  They seem pretty evenly matched. Both have had poor defensive units, and their offensive units are separated in the national rankings by fewer than 10 spots. It may be regarded as something of an upset, but I will pick Akron to win.
• Army at #24 Rutgers: Army has lost eight straight games to Rutgers, and, believe me, there is nothing I would like more than to be able to predict an underdog victory.
  
  And, believe it or not, Army actually has a higher–rated offense than Rutgers.
  
  But the Scarlet Knights have a Top 20 defense, and that should put them over the top. I take Rutgers.
• Kansas at #25 Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: In 13 previous contests, Kansas beat Texas Tech only once.
  
  But that unlikely victory came on the road. The Jayhawks beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock on Oct. 6, 2001.
  
  That doesn't seem likely to happen again. Kansas is 1–8, Tech is 6–3, and they're miles apart on both sides of the ball.
  
  I pick Texas Tech.

Last week: 16–3

Season: 157–40

Butler Didn't Do It

After last night's NCAA Tournament finale — in which Duke defeated Butler, 61–59 — the pastor of my church posted a brief comment on Facebook: "The murder mystery fan in me was really looking forward to saying, 'Butler did it.' "

In the literary world, I suppose there are few phrases that have become as cliched as "the butler did it" — even though, as I understand it, the writer who is most often credited with originating that phrase, Mary Roberts Rinehart, never actually used it in one of her books.

And, as someone who spent many years on sports copy desks, I'm sure that more than one copy editor in this great land of ours fantasized about writing a headline that said "Butler Did It" — or something equally clever — for this morning's newspaper.

It reminds me of an occasion when, as a sports copy editor for the now–defunct Arkansas Gazette, I was assigned to write the headline for the football game story in which the Arkansas Razorbacks — who had been praised in the preseason as a potential national champion — hosted the Miami Hurricanes in a game played in Little Rock. The 'Canes routed the Razorbacks that day, effectively ending all talk of a national title, even though it was only September.

As I sat in front of my computer screen, I happened to think of an old line, "It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good," and I used that as the basis for my headline, which was "An ill wind blows through Little Rock." I was — and still am — proud of that headline, the inspiration for which, I believe, originated hundreds of years ago. But I often wondered just how many people got the allusion. I'm sure there would be even fewer today.

Butler didn't do it, of course, and so copy editors were deprived of the storybook ending that many craved. Of course, with the abundance of David vs. Goliath comparisons, the game was practically drowning in allusion as it was.

Nevertheless, it is an opportunity to point out the risk that accompanies using allusions in headlines.

Don't get me wrong. Using allusions in headlines is one of the few ways that copy editors can flex their intellectual muscles, but my years on newspaper copy desks taught me that these things can backfire if you aren't certain that all of your readers will pick up on your reference.

One of my favorite bloggers, John McIntyre, a former editor for the Baltimore Sun, has written at his You Don't Say blog (and elsewhere) about an incident that occurred in the Baltimore area in 1996 that inspired such a headline that others didn't get.

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"On July 4, 1996, when President Bill Clinton visited Maryland's Eastern Shore, a bald eagle named Freedom, which had been nursed back to health after an injury, was released into the sky to commemorate the occasion.

"Unfortunately, Freedom was attacked by a couple of ospreys and ended up back in the bird hospital. When The Baltimore Sun put the story on its front page, the task of writing a headline fell to Paul Clark, one of the ablest copy editors I have ever worked with. He came up with 'Freedom's just another bird/ with nothing left to lose.'

"That headline was applauded in the newsroom and praised in the in–house newsletter. But when I offer it up as an example of the craft to my copy editing students at Loyola College, I get a roomful of blank looks. Janis Joplin singing 'Me and Bobby McGhee' is presumably the kind of music that only older people listen to."

John McIntyre

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Allusion, as Mr. McIntyre points out, "should enrich the reader's experience by providing an additional layer of meaning. But if it gets in the way of grasping the principal meaning, it is intrusive and counterproductive."

That doesn't just apply to headlines, though. When my brother and I were small, my mother was fond of making points with references to the radio programs from her childhood — i.e., "the Shadow knows" or Amos 'n' Andy or Jack Armstrong the All–American Boy — or observing, when we played games like Monopoly, that someone's stash of Monopoly cash gave the appearance that that person had been "taking a walk in Jack Benny's vault."

By the time my brother and I came along, radio was mostly music and sports, and we didn't have a frame of reference that enabled us to understand what Mom was talking about. We didn't know about the Shadow. We hadn't heard the jokes about Jack Benny's penny–pinching ways.

For most allusions to work, they must be fresh, and that requires a certain amount of judgment on the part of the writer or the speaker. Such judgment must be rendered on a case–by–case basis.

There was a time, for example, when "Where's the beef?" was a popular commercial catch–phrase that was frequently used as an allusion. In 2010, however, the reference is probably unfamiliar to nearly anyone under the age of 30.

In 1963, when Martin Luther King gave his famous "I Have a Dream" speech, he began by saying "Five score years ago ..." and most listeners immediately understood the allusion to Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address a century earlier.

When I was in junior high, my civics teacher required everyone in the class to memorize and recite the Gettysburg Address — consequently, my classmates and I would have understood King's allusion. But I don't know if teachers require their students to memorize that speech these days. Beyond a cursory study of the Gettysburg Address in their history books, most, if not all, modern young people might not get it.

Likewise, since the Watergate scandal, just about every scandal that has come along has been given the suffix "–gate." I guess most people still get that reference. Watergate remains the most notorious scandal in recent memory, having brought down a president. But I can remember, in the days when the Watergate scandal was just becoming known to the American public, that it was referred to as "another Teapot Dome," which was an allusion to a political scandal from half a century earlier. I wonder if anyone — other than history majors — would get that today.

Allusion, as Mr. McIntyre wrote, can enhance the reader's experience — but it won't work if the reader doesn't know what you're talking about.

Well, congratulations to Duke. I guess no allusion could enhance the experience of seeing last night's game — even if the ending wasn't as dramatic as the one in "Hoosiers."

Butler didn't do it, but the Bulldogs weren't losers. They did everything but win the game.

A Final Like No Other ... Well, Almost

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When Butler and Duke take the court for college basketball's championship game tomorrow night, it will be unique in the annals of the NCAA.

But it won't be entirely unique. Milan High School, a small school in Indiana, took on a powerful big school from a big city and defeated it in the state championship game back in the 1950s — inspiring the film "Hoosiers" three decades later and inviting comparisons to Butler University this year.

Butler, after all, is from Indiana. It plays its games in the same fieldhouse where Milan won its title — and where "Hoosiers" was filmed.

That, however, is where the apparent similarities end.

Butler is not tiny — at least not in the same way that Milan was. In fact, while it is smaller than Duke, Butler's enrollment is not dwarfed by Duke's the way it was by Michigan State's, its semifinal foe yesterday.

To be sure, though, Butler — making only its first–ever Final Four appearance — is far smaller in terms of its basketball achievements. Duke has won three national titles and has been in more than a dozen Final Fours.

When looked at from that perspective, this is obviously a David vs. Goliath kind of match. And Goliath got things going by being installed as a 6½–point favorite.

My guess is that it will attract TV ratings that far exceed those for previous championship games. After all, it's got all the drama of the movie — with the added benefit of being the real thing, not an imitation. Right?

Well, not exactly, says Joe Posnanski for SI.com. "The one thing that is important to get straight, right off the top: Butler is not that great a story," Posnanski writes. "That's not a knock — it's the opposite of a knock. Butler is a very good basketball team. They're not some perplexing phenomenon."

Indeed. The Bulldogs did not come out of nowhere. They were ranked when the season began. But they don't play in a major conference, so they don't get anything close to the TV time that tomorrow night's opponent does.

They inhabit different galaxies, these two teams. They've established themselves as masters of their domains. And tomorrow night, one of them will rule the college basketball universe.

With Tiger Woods making his much–anticipated return to competitive golf in this week's Masters Tournament, it could be a blockbuster week for CBS.