Well, I told you so.
Last week it was the trendy thing to do to pick #3 Florida State to turn back #1 Alabama in their much–ballyhooed season–opening battle.
A victory for the Seminoles, it was said, would accomplish two things — it would dislodge Alabama as the king of college football (even though, technically, Clemson is the defending national champion) and the SEC as the dominant football conference. It would be the dawn of a new era, they said, in which Florida State and the ACC would be college football's gold standard.
And there were a lot of folks jumping on the Florida State bandwagon.
But a funny thing happened en route to this brave new world.
Alabama beat Florida State soundly 24–7, just as I predicted last week. OK, maybe I didn't anticipate the margin, but the king clearly isn't dead and likely only faces two or three legitimate challenges — if that many — between now and what probably will be the Crimson Tide's 12th appearance in the Southeastern Conference's championship game.
No, the outcome in Atlanta didn't surprise me.
And I wasn't really surprised that Maryland gave #23 Texas a rough time. As I wrote about a month ago, I thought Texas was overrated — and I definitely still think so after Maryland's victory in Austin last weekend.
In an email conversation with a friend of mine the next day, we agreed that new Texas coach Tom Herman was bound to be on the hot seat after such a dismal debut and with Southern Cal, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State looming in the not–so–distant future.
The sports writers in Austin seem to be giving Herman some room, acknowledging that the Longhorns are "the same players that lost to Kansas" last season.
But I grew up in this part of the country, and I know how impatient Longhorn fans can be. They might not be saying it right now, but the honeymoon is over for Herman. Now comes the hard part. It was always going to be the hard part, but it was made harder still by a 10–point loss to an 18–point underdog.
Kirk Bohls of the Austin American–Statesman wrote that Herman (only the third head coach in UT history to lose his very first game — and one of the prior two had a legitimate excuse, having lost on the road to an Auburn team that would lose only once that season) was baffled by Texas' tendency to be its own worst enemy.
I am tempted to compare the Longhorns to Donald Trump and his inclination to send out Tweets at the drop of a hat. Both seem to have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot, and it is far from clear whether either will be able to right the ship in time to save it.
The Longhorns' long–time rival Texas A&M appeared to be on the brink of a major road upset, but the Aggies allowed UCLA to rally from a 34–point deficit for a 45–44 victory.
Looks like both coaches will be squirming on the hot seat this season.
Friday
- #11 Oklahoma State at South Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools. South Alabama will probably hope it will be the last.
I pick Oklahoma State.
- Fresno State at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Alabama has only lost three games at home since 2012 — and each loss was to a national contender (at least after that team beat 'Bama).
Fresno is coming off a 1–11 season. I hardly think Fresno will be 'Bama's fourth home loss since 2012.
I pick Alabama. - #5 Oklahoma at #2 Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's been almost 40 years to the day since Oklahoma's only other visit to Ohio State. The Sooners won that game, 29–28, on Uwe von Schamann's 41–yard field goal with only a handful of seconds remaining.
Then as now, the game featured two teams from the Top 5. On that day, Oklahoma was ranked third and Ohio State was ranked fourth.
I'm expecting another good, close game. And since the visiting team always wins in this series (when the teams played in Norman in 1983, Ohio State won, and the Buckeyes won again in Norman last season, 45–24), I choose Oklahoma in a modest upset special. - #13 Auburn at #3 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: For the first half of the 20th century, these teams faced each other nearly every year.
But they have only met five times since the 1971 season — and two of those games were in postseason bowls.
Historically Auburn has dominated the series, winning more than 70% of the time. But Clemson has won the last two meetings.
And my guess is that Clemson will make this its third straight win. - Pittsburgh at #4 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: For most of the 20th century this was an annual in–state rivalry that got national attention every November, but it has been almost 17 years since their last meeting.
Pittsburgh has been good but not great for the last several years. Penn State struggled for awhile in its transition from the Joe Paterno era but seems to be back on track. I expect home–field advantage to lift Penn State to victory. - #14 Stanford at #6 Southern Cal, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Historically Southern Cal beats Stanford about two–thirds of the time.
But Stanford has won seven of the last 10 meetings, including the Pac–12 Championship Game in 2015.
I pick Stanford in an upset special. - Montana at #7 Washington, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Washington is on its way up.
I don't know anything about Montana, but I doubt that it will be much of a game.
Washington is the choice. - Cincinnati at #8 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After the way the Wolverines manhandled Florida last week, I'm a believer.
I choose Michigan. - Florida Atlantic at #9 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I can't see this one staying close for long.
I pick Wisconsin. - Louisiana–Monroe at #10 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After losing to Alabama last week — and it is certainly no disgrace to lose to Alabama — I expect the Seminoles to bounce back.
Florida State should have no problems. - Chattanooga at #12 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: It's hard for any visitor to win at LSU.
For Chattanooga it should be impossible.
I choose LSU. - #15 Georgia at #24 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: It has been more than 36 years since the last time these teams met. It was New Year's Day 1981, and top–ranked Georgia beat seventh–ranked Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, 17–10.
The setting is not nearly so dramatic this time — and Georgia clearly has no Herschel Walker in the backfield this time — but I predict the same outcome. I choose Georgia. - #16 Miami (Fla.) at Arkansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: I grew up in Arkansas, and this may be the highest–profile team to play in Jonesboro.
I don't know if Arkansas State is any good, but I can't imagine ASU staying in this one for long.
I pick Miami. - #17 Louisville at North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This one might actually be close for awhile.
North Carolina has been to bowls in the last four seasons and even had an 11–win season in 2015.
Louisville holds a 4–3 lead in the series, but the teams are tied at 2–2 in games played at North Carolina.
While the home field may help the Tar Heels for awhile, my pick is Louisville. - Delaware at #18 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACC Network: There is no reason why this one should be close.
Virginia Tech will win. - Charlotte at #19 Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central): The oddsmakers don't think this will be competitive, and neither do I. The oddsmakers make Kansas State a 35–point favorite. I agree.
The pick is Kansas State. - Boise State at #20 Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Washington State has won all four of the previous meetings with Boise State, but the teams haven't met since 2001.
In the interim Boise State has had some pretty good teams. Only recently has Washington State been regarded as one of the nation's best.
The Cougars are favored by 10. I can go along with that. The pick is Washington State. - #21 South Florida at Connecticut, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNEWS: UConn went 3–9 last year. One of those losses was by 15 points at South Florida.
Sounds about right, even though UConn is at home this time. My pick is South Florida. - Northern Colorado at #22 Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The bookies aren't taking bets on this one anymore, and who can blame them?
Florida should win easily. - #23 TCU at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: When I was growing up, these two teams played in the Southwest Conference, which meant they faced each other every year.
It was practically an automatic win for the Razorbacks, who lost to TCU for the first time in my lifetime when I was in college.
Things have changed for both schools, and they have only met once since the SWC disbanded, but Arkansas won that encounter. I predict that Arkansas will win this one, too. It's another upset special since TCU is picked by a field goal, but it seems like old times ... - Indiana State at #25 Tennessee, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The only time that I can recall that Indiana State had a team worthy of national attention was when Larry Bird played basketball there.
I fully expect Tennessee to triumph.
Overall: 20–3
Last week's upset specials: 0–2
Overall upset specials: 0–2
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