Testing the Champions

One of the most enduring memories from my adolescence is of watching Secretariat wipe out the field in the Belmont Stakes and claim the Triple Crown.

On that afternoon in June 1973, Secretariat recorded an incredible 31–length victory.

I don't expect to see anything like that this afternoon.

I know we won't witness the end of the Triple Crown drought.

But I do believe we will see something that is just as rare. I believe we will see a horse win the first and third jewels of the Triple Crown.

Eleven horses have won the Triple Crown since 1919. The same number have pulled off that 1–3 split — and only two have done so since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978.

(By comparison, since 1919, 21 horses won the first two jewels of the Triple Crown but failed to complete the sweep, and 13 horses lost the Kentucky Derby but went on to win the last two jewels of the Triple Crown.)

Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby last month, and Shackleford won the Preakness — but Shackleford was fading at the end and barely kept Animal Kingdom from pulling off an amazing come–from–behind win.

Nearly three weeks ago, Mark Breech of Sports Illustrated observed that it was "almost inconceivable" that Shackleford could win the grueling Belmont Stakes — known as the Test of Champions — after fading noticeably in the shorter Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

"Animal Kingdom has been the fastest horse at the end of both of the first two races in this series," Breech wrote. "Having more room to run can only be to his benefit."

I agreed with that when I read it the first time. I still agree with it today, about three hours before race time.

Breech's colleague at Sports Illustrated, Gene Menez, is on the Animal Kingdom bandwagon, too, but he insists that the hype about today's race being Round 3 between Animal Kingdom and Shackleford sells the rest of the field short.

It is "more than just a two–horse race," he writes.

And he mentions several horses that could pull off upset wins. It wouldn't be a new experience for a longshot to win the Belmont. Three have done so in the last decade.

But Menez is sticking with Animal Kingdom. "Everything points to another big race from the Derby winner," he writes.

Brad Telias of The Sporting News rightly calls the Belmont "a race like no other."

And, when all is said and done, Telias picks Nehro in "a mild upset." That isn't a bad choice; Nehro, as he points out, was an "impressive runner–up" to Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby and should be well rested after skipping the Preakness three weeks ago.

"Animal Kingdom will relish the distance and he's coming in the race without showing any signs of fatigue or wear and tear," writes Telias. "His downfall may come from his come–from–behind style in a race that promises a slow pace."

I'm sticking with Animal Kingdom.

Animal Kingdom Comes Up Short

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As it does most years, the Preakness ended dreams of a Triple Crown for the Kentucky Derby winner yesterday.

But, unlike most of those years, this year's Derby winner — Animal Kingdom — almost pulled it off.

It didn't look that way at first. Animal Kingdom started the race way back in the pack, actually leading only one other horse as they made the first turn.

But then, as the Preakness progressed, it began to resemble the Kentucky Derby, in which Animal Kingdom made his move on the outside and overtook the rest of the field.

The same thing nearly happened yesterday.

Animal Kingdom shifted into the next gear and began passing horses on the outside — and was making what would have been a comeback of legend if he had been able to pull it off.

Shackleford, though, held off the hard–charging Animal Kingdom in a thrilling — and, for some lucky folks, a profitable — Preakness finish.

Does Animal Kingdom's loss mean there is little reason to watch the Belmont Stakes in three weeks? Hardly, according to Mark Breech of Sports Illustrated.

If Animal Kingdom had pulled off an historic reversal and won the Preakness, he might have been the one horse racing has been waiting for. And Breech thinks he should be the favorite to win the Belmont.

If Animal Kingdom does win the Belmont, he will have achieved something that has been almost as rare as Triple Crown winners. He will have won the first and third jewels of the Triple Crown (with a near–miss in the second).

Thunder Gulch, in 1995, was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont. There have been seven horses since then who have won the first two jewels but have fallen short in the third, the longest and most grueling of the three races.

And two horses have won the second and third jewels but not the first.

Animal Kingdom, writes Breech, "should love the immensity of the Triple Crown's third track. ... Animal Kingdom has been the fastest horse at the end of both of the first two races in this series. Having more room to run can only be to his benefit."

False Prophets and the Preakness

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If you're one of the apparently few who believe that the "rapture" will occur at 6 p.m. local time today, I suggest that you tune in this afternoon for the Preakness in Baltimore — unless 6 p.m. has come and gone where you are.

By that time, you will already know if the rapture has occurred as predicted. The folks who have been telling us that the rapture would occur on this day have been saying that it will happen when it is 6 p.m. locally.

But if you live on the West Coast or in the Rocky Mountain time zone — or, like me, you live in the Central time zone — you might want to tune in.

Because the Preakness is supposed to be run when it is 6 p.m. in Baltimore — which is in the Eastern time zone.

Consequently, if there really is anything to this rapture stuff, you should see

• jockeys disappearing from horses and/or


• spectators disappearing from the stands.

That ought to make the Preakness pretty interesting.

Oh, wait a minute. Those party poopers at the Christian Science Monitor are reporting that 6 p.m. has come and gone in some parts of the world — and no rapture. (And, writes the International Business Times, Harold Camping, the minister who prophesied today's rapture and bought billboards and distributed pamphlets across the country telling people about it, has been exposed as a false prophet, which will doom his ministry.)

Guess you can eliminate that as an entertainment factor.

Well, the Preakness should still be interesting. We'll find out today — as we always do on the third Saturday in May — whether there will still be a chance for a horse to win this year's Triple Crown three weeks from now in the Belmont.

It's been more than 30 years since a horse won the Triple Crown, and many of the folks in the thoroughbred racing industry don't want to talk about it — kind of like superstitious ball players (or bowlers, for that matter) who don't want to talk about a perfect game while the game is still being played.

Barry Irwin, who heads the group that owns Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, appears to be one of those.

"I don't even want to hear about it, to tell you the truth," he told Ed Fountaine of the New York Post. "Let's just see what happens in this next race."

Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated thinks Animal Kingdom can prevail. He says the horse should be well rested and prepared to handle what he sees as a relatively weak Preakness field.

Layden's colleague, Gene Menez, agrees that Animal Kingdom is the horse to beat today although he warns readers that they should not be surprised "if [15–1 shot] Midnight Interlude shocks the Preakness at a price."

Not so fast, my friend, writes Brad Telias of The Sporting News. While the Preakness is just about the same distance as the Kentucky Derby, there are significant differences between being a relatively anonymous longshot and a much–heralded favorite.

Such pressure seems unlikely to affect a horse, but it could influence the performance of a jockey — and even the slightest change in the way a jockey rides or sits in the saddle can, in turn, influence what a horse does.

And, while it has been relatively rare in the last three decades for a horse to win the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, neither is really adequate preparation for the Belmont, which has (justifiably) been dubbed the "Test of Champions." It's longer than either of the first two races.

Thus, even if Animal Kingdom does win today, history strongly suggests that the hype that is sure to surround him from now until June 11 will prove to be overblown — and his meager race record to date will be proven to be inadequate preparation.

I don't know who will win today's race.

But I do have a couple of predictions — and I am reasonably confident they will be correct.

By 6:30 Baltimore time this evening, we will know whether the Triple Crown is still a possibility. And we'll know if there was anything to that rapture business.

My guess is that there will be a lot of false prophets revealed by sundown today.

Will Animal Kingdom Rule the Preakness?

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You really don't have to be blessed with any special insights to predict that the winner of the Kentucky Derby will not win the second jewel in horse racing's Triple Crown.

Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, roughly one–third of the horses that won the Kentucky Derby went on to win the Preakness two weeks later. In the last six years, only Big Brown (in 2008) has accomplished it.

Last year's Derby winner, Super Saver, lost the Preakness, fading at the end when Lookin at Lucky seemed to come from nowhere to seize control.

Up to that point, Super Saver had been among the leaders, but, after Lookin at Lucky made his move, Super Saver was like a balloon that lost all of its air and deflated, finishing out of the money.

That's the thing that casual observers of horse racing don't really understand. A horse race isn't just a horse race. Distance matters. So does surface — and experience.

The surface will be the same as Animal Kingdom encountered two weeks ago, and the distance will be almost what it was — but the great intangible for him is the fact that his racing history is not extensive enough for anyone to know what to expect.

With a record that could be written on a cocktail napkin, Animal Kingdom is one big question mark — and that is the sort of thing that, back in the day, would have made all of my old railbird friends uneasy, to say the least.

Being the defending Kentucky Derby winner, the odds on Animal Kingdom won't reflect the absence of experience going into the Preakness on Saturday — the way they did two weeks ago — but they should.

Today, with the Preakness only days away, observers are wondering if Animal Kingdom, a 20–1 shot when he won the Derby, can keep alive for a while longer the dream that a horse will win the Triple Crown this year.

That is the question. It's as clear as it can be. Can he do it?

The answer is not as clear. Not yet.

Yes, says a National Thoroughbred Racing Association poll. (I could be wrong, but I get the sense that the respondents are towing the company line, trying to build some enthusiasm momentum for the possibility of a Triple Crown.)

It's possible, writes Andrew Beyer of the Washington Post. " It would be natural to suspect that Animal Kingdom's victory might be another Kentucky Derby aberration," he says, "[y]et an examination of the race indicates that his performance was legitimate."

No, writes Ray Kerrison of the New York Post. He spoke to a horse racing expert who told him that, for at least two reasons, he can't see Animal Kingdom winning the Preakness.

We will get some answers on Saturday.

And Now For The Really Hard Part ...

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Did you watch the Kentucky Derby yesterday?

Animal Kingdom was the surprise winner.

Well, I say "surprise" — but, in fact, everyone was saying this was the most wide–open Derby in a long time. I saw a comment from one trainer prior to the race who said that nearly all of the 19 horses had at least a shot at winning the race. Only one or two could be considered legitimate upsets, he said.

I don't know if he considered Animal Kingdom to be one of them, but it is true that it has been, as Alicia Wincze Hughes writes for the Lexington Herald–Leader, an "unpredictable" time for 3–year–olds.

Consequently, she just might be right when she says the 20–1 shot was the "perfect specimen" to seize the moment in the Kentucky Derby.

I didn't hear much about Animal Kingdom before the race. Most of the attention was on the other horses. That was to be expected, I guess. He didn't have a very impressive resume.

But I expect to hear a lot about Animal Kingdom in the next two weeks. His days of relative anonymity are over.

For those who follow horse racing to any extent, this may be the most intriguing time of the year. The legendary Triple Crown is out there to be won, and the Preakness is the next jewel.

The Triple Crown hangs in the horizon like something of a mirage, as it always does for the Kentucky Derby winner. The picture becomes a bit clearer if the Derby winner also wins in Baltimore two weeks later — but that is no guarantee of eventual success in the Belmont in June as many of the jockeys who rode Kentucky Derby winners in the last 33 years could tell you.

This is the hard part for Animal Kingdom. The weight of horse racing history hangs heavier with each passing year.

Since Affirmed claimed the 1978 Triple Crown, about two–thirds of the Kentucky Derby winners have come up short in the Preakness. In those years, horse racing's Triple Crown hype has been short lived.

And, even when they have won the second jewel of the Triple Crown, even when they have looked like foregone conclusions in the Belmont, it hasn't worked out that way.

Now it is Animal Kingdom's turn. Can he do what so many others have failed to do? This is the longest drought between Triple Crown winners, but the truth is that it has always been an elusive achievement. Between 1919 and 1978, only 11 horses won the Triple Crown.

Mark Beech of Sports Illustrated seems to think it is possible this year. Yes, he agrees, Animal Kingdom was an unknown quantity before yesterday's race — but don't underestimate him.

He's been improving in every start, Beech writes, and he is "modestly bred, with the pedigree of a turf runner, which in plain English means he should be able to run all day long."

Time will tell.