Picking Oregon to Win It All

Well, the national championship game is being played in nearby Arlington tonight. Kickoff is in about an hour.

Oregon and Ohio State survived the semifinals on New Year's Day and are playing for the title tonight.

They've met eight times before — most recently in the 2010 Rose Bowl. Ohio State is 8–0 in those games.

It really should be a good game. It matches two Top 10 offenses — Oregon is ranked third in the country, Ohio State is ranked ninth. I expect a lot of scoring.

Ohio State's defense is ranked well ahead of Oregon's. The Buckeyes are 17th in the nation; the Ducks are 84th.

I guess those rankings suggest that Ohio State will win the game tonight. Perhaps the Buckeyes will. They have already surprised me twice, beating Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship and then Alabama in a national semifinal — both pretty handily, too — despite being without their injured quarterback. Impressive.

But, really, I'm inclined to pick Oregon. The Ducks have the Heisman winner, and they buried Florida State, the defending national champions, on New Year's Day. That's pretty impressive as well.

So I pick Oregon to win. Perhaps it will go to overtime. Even if it doesn't, I expect it to go down to the wire.

Enjoy.

Bowls: 7–8

Season: 213–58

All Shook Up

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The college football landscape shifted last weekend when Texas A&M upset the top–ranked team in the nation, Alabama.

And some Aggie hearts beat a little faster at the thought of playing in the SEC Championship game next month — but the fact is that Alabama, which is still the highest–ranked team in the SEC, almost certainly will be playing for the conference title.

Alabama has only one conference game remaining — against 2–8 Auburn in the 71st edition of the Iron Bowl next Saturday. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but the notion that this Auburn team might hand Alabama its second conference loss is just a little far–fetched, it seems to me.

However, just to play devil's advocate, let's say that Auburn pulls off an upset. That could mean a tie in the SEC West with either Texas A&M or LSU or both. That much isn't clear yet. A&M might stumble against Missouri, and LSU might falter against Ole Miss or Arkansas. Neither is likely, but they remain possible until the games are played.

What would be clear is that the SEC's streak of six consecutive national titles will end.

That may be the case, anyway. Top–ranked Oregon may be playing for the national title in January, but the Ducks must beat three straight ranked teams to get there.

Kansas State might be able to punch its ticket for the January showdown in its last two games, but that remains to be seen — as it does for the nation's third–ranked team, Notre Dame.

The next couple of weeks promise to be very interesting.

Idle: #18 Texas, #20 Louisville

Today

• #14 Stanford at #1 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I know there is a lot of talk on the West Coast these days about Oregon possibly playing for the national championship.
  
  Such talk was going on even before Alabama lost to Texas A&M last weekend, but now that Oregon is in the top spot, I suppose it has accelerated.
  
  Certainly, Alabama's loss put additional pressure on the Ducks, who were sure to be feeling more stress this week, anyway, with their upcoming game against #14 Stanford — and, if the Ducks win that one, there will be even more pressure when they face their in–state rivals from Oregon State the following week.
  
  Then, of course, if the Ducks win those two games, there will be the pressure of the Pac–12 Championship game, which figures to be against the winner of today's game between USC and UCLA.
  
  Neither Kansas State nor Notre Dame will have to play in a conference championship game, but the Irish will have to play #21 Southern Cal on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
  
  In fact, K–State may have the easiest road to the national championship game of the top three. After facing Baylor this weekend, the Wildcats have the next week off before closing the season against #18 Texas. (Not that beating Texas will be easy, but at least the Wildcats will get to face the Longhorns on their home turf.)
  
  But back to the Oregon–Stanford game ...
  
  The historical record suggests that Stanford would be a lot better off playing this game at home where the Cardinal have beaten the Ducks nearly 63% of the time. When the game has been played in Eugene, the Ducks have been victorious more than half the time.
  
  Oregon has by far the better offense. Ranked third in the country, it is light years ahead of Stanford's 84th–ranked offense.
  
  It's not entirely bleak for Stanford, though. The Cardinal defense may pose the stiffest challenge that Oregon will face in Pac–12 play this year (even though the Oregon State game is looming next week).
  
  But I still think Oregon will prevail at home.
• #2 Kansas State at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Well, even though KSU is undefeated and Baylor is just barely flirting with the .500 mark, this might not be quite so easy for the Wildcats.
  
  KSU is 4–0 at home against Baylor, but the Wildcats are just 3–2 at Waco — and Baylor has beaten K–State the last two times they have played there.
  
  The Bears have the better offense by far. Baylor is #2 in the nation in that category (compared to K–State at #47). But defense, they say, wins championships, and the Wildcats' 34th–ranked defense is much better than Baylor's (#120).
  
  I figure KSU will have its ups and downs against Baylor's offense — but when the Wildcats have the ball, they almost can't help being productive against the Baylor defense. Only one of Baylor's 10 opponents has failed to score at least 23 points, and most have scored at least 35. Kansas State, on the other hand, has scored 44 points or more six times this season.
  
  (Some of those points were scored by the defense, but most of them were scored on offense.)
  
  It seems obvious to me that Kansas State will win this game.
• Wake Forest at #3 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams met for the first time last season, and Notre Dame, en route to an 8–5 mark, won the game, 24–17.
  
  That game was played at Wake Forest. This time, the teams meet in South Bend.
  
  As I mentioned, Notre Dame has the challenge of facing USC next week, but, as long as the Irish don't overlook the 5–5 Demon Deacons, they ought to be undefeated when they face the Trojans.
  
  After all, Notre Dame's eighth–ranked defense should dispose of Wake Forest's 111th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has been adequate but not great, Wake Forest's defense appears ill–equipped to stop it.
  
  Notre Dame should win.
• Western Carolina at #4 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I can't understand why anyone would want to televise this game — but, for some reason, many teams in the Top 25 are facing non–Division 1–A opponents this weekend — and, barring any extremely unforeseen developments, they should have no trouble.
  
  One would think that Alabama, with the second–best defense in the land, would be unimpressed with Western Carolina. I fully expect Alabama to win.
• Georgia Southern at #5 Georgia: This game has a lot in common with the Alabama game — one of the best SEC teams is playing at home against a non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Unless something really unexpected happens, I believe Georgia will win.
• #6 Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams almost always have winning records when they face each other.
  
  And Ohio State almost always wins.
  
  The Buckeyes have been much more successful at home, but they've been successful against Wisconsin wherever the game has been played. At Wisconsin, Ohio State is 25–11–2 — but the Badgers have won two of the last three games that were played there.
  
  And logic suggests that, if Wisconsin can make it three of four, the Badgers (who would then be 8–3) will return to the Top 25.
  
  I think it should be a good game. Ohio State has the better offense, but Wisconsin's defense currently ranks in the Top 20 nationally — and should be up to the task of stopping the Buckeyes.
  
  I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Wisconsin in a mild upset.
• Jacksonville State at #7 Florida: Like the Alabama and Georgia games, I see no reason why the home team should lose to this non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Florida should win easily.
• Ole Miss at #8 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Known as the "Magnolia Bowl," this rivalry dates back to the 19th century.
  
  Its heyday came in the 1950s and 1960s, when both teams brought lofty rankings and winning records into their annual clashes (they even met in the Sugar Bowl once).
  
  In a sort of general view of sports history, not much has changed for LSU, which is ranked eighth in the land, but Ole Miss (5–5) has struggled.
  
  Ole Miss has the better offense, but LSU's defense (#3 in the nation) seems well prepared for it.
  
  That — and home field, where LSU is 37–23–1 against Ole Miss — seems likely to propel LSU to victory.
• Sam Houston State at #9 Texas A&M: This must seem like a real breather to the Aggies, who have won eight of their last nine games (the exception being a five–point loss to LSU last month).
  
  And, after winning on the road against the top–ranked team in the nation last week, Texas A&M simply can't be impressed with Sam Houston State.
  
  A BCS bowl berth is possible for the Aggies if they keep their eyes on the prize, and I see no reason why they shouldn't do that today. Texas A&M should win this game.
• #10 Florida State at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much reason, frankly, for Maryland fans to watch this game — either in person or on TV.
  
  Historically, Florida State has won 20 of the 22 meetings between the schools and has never lost at home — so I guess there is one good thing about this game for Maryland fans. It's being played in College Park, not Tallahassee.
  
  It could be depressing for Terps fans when they have the ball. Maryland's offense is the worst in the land while Florida State's defense is the best. Things might be much better for Maryland when Florida State has the ball. The Seminoles are #11 in the country in offense, but the Terps, who are 16th in defense, might be able to stop them.
  
  One wonders, though, if the Terps might stop themselves. Statistically, Maryland's offense is –10 in turnovers, and the thought of cashing in on that and beefing up the defensive statistics must be motivating for FSU's defense.
  
  On the flip side, I wonder if Florida State can maintain its focus, knowing that its annual rivalry game with #7 Florida is only a week away.
  
  Can Maryland win? I doubt it. I pick Florida State.
• North Carolina State at #11 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When North Carolina State beat Clemson last year, it snapped a seven–game Clemson winning streak against the Wolfpack.
  
  But the 6–4 Wolfpack still have plenty to play for — like a more prestigious bowl appearance — and Clemson could well be distracted by next week's game with South Carolina.
  
  But if Clemson's offense (seventh in the nation) remains focused, it should be able to dominate N.C. State's defense (61st in the country) and give the Tigers the winning edge. I figure Clemson's defense (#57 in the land) is evenly matched with N.C. State's offense (#59).
  
  I pick Clemson.
• Wofford at #12 South Carolina: I really thought South Carolina would struggle after losing its marquee running back to an injury a few weeks ago.
  
  But the Gamecocks have persevered, and they should be 9–2 after beating this non–Division 1–A foe — if they don't start daydreaming about their game next week against #11 Clemson.
  
  I don't think they will. I think South Carolina will win.
• #13 Oklahoma at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It should be rather cold in West Virginia tonight.
  
  I used to live in Oklahoma so I know the OU players are accustomed to the cold weather, but this isn't like what they have been dealing with lately. It's going to be in the mid–50s (at best) during the day, and temperatures are expected to decline rapidly after the sun goes down.
  
  It's a modest series to date — only four games have been played — and the teams have never played in Morgantown so this will be a first — and a chilly one at that.
  
  The offenses are pretty even — OU is #16, West Virginia is #18 — so that means defenses probably will be decisive — and that is where OU (#20) has a huge edge over West Virginia (#110).
  
  I predict that Oklahoma will win.
• California at #15 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: I'm sure it must be tempting for the Beavers to overlook the Bears with the showdown with #1 Oregon coming up next week, but a loss to the Bears would knock Oregon State out of the running for the Pac–12 championship game.
  
  Well, they're probably out of the running for that, anyway, what with Stanford and Oregon playing each other today. Oregon is undefeated and Stanford only has one loss in Pac–12 play whereas Oregon State has two conference losses. Logic says the winner of the Oregon–Stanford game will represent the division in the conference championship game.
  
  But, as this day begins, a three–way tie at the top of the division is still mathematically possible and, if that happens, I don't know what the Pac–12's tiebreaker would be.
  
  If there is to be such a tie, two things must happen this week: Stanford must beat Oregon this afternoon and Oregon State must beat California tonight.
  
  I have already predicted that Stanford will not hold up its end of the bargain, but Oregon State has a significantly better defense than California. Both offenses are rather average so defense figures to dominate in this game.
  
  Consequently, I will pick Oregon State.
• Minnesota at #16 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I have found that many people mistakenly believe that, because Nebraska is a newcomer to the Big Ten, its series with most of the members of the conference are rather sparse.
  
  That may well be the case with some of the schools, but Nebraska has a long history with Minnesota. They've played 52 times — but last year, Nebraska's first in the Big Ten, was the first time the teams had faced each other in more than two decades.
  
  Nebraska's win in 2011 was its 15th straight against Minnesota. The Gophers haven't beaten the Cornhuskers since 1960, and it is hard to imagine 6–4 Minnesota topping an 8–2 Nebraska team that has lost only to #17 UCLA and #6 Ohio State.
  
  Especially since Nebraska enjoys such a huge advantage on offense (the Cornhuskers are #17 in the country while Minnesota is #96). Minnesota actually has the edge on defense, but it is narrow (Minnesota is #25; Nebraska is #28).
  
  On the strength of a superior offense and the home field advantage, I choose Nebraska.
• #21 USC at #17 UCLA, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was a kid, the USC–UCLA game was one of the top rivalry games that was televised every year — usually during the Thanksgiving season.
  
  USC usually won the game as it has throughout history (the Trojans have won about 61% of the time, and they've won 12 of the last 13) — but the thing that should concern this USC football team about this UCLA team is that UCLA has the #13 offense in the nation — and the third best in the Pac–12, a conference that is known for flashy offenses.
  
  Southern Cal has a pretty good offense, too (#28), and logic says it shouldn't have much trouble with UCLA's #75 defense. But neither should UCLA's offense have too much difficulty with USC's #58 defense.
  
  It seems to me to be a matter of which offense executes its game plan the most effectively. I'm guessing it will be UCLA.
• Utah State at #19 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Here's something I'll bet you didn't know — Louisiana Tech has the top–ranked offense in the nation.
  
  OK, maybe you did know it, but even if Utah State knows it, it can't be very encouraging — especially since Louisiana Tech has won six of the last seven meetings between the schools.
  
  Tech (9–1) should not take the 8–2 Aggies lightly, though. That Bulldog offense will be taking on the 12th–best defense in the nation. And Tech's offense better come through because Tech has one of the worst defenses in the nation while Utah State's offense is 28th.
  
  I pick Utah State.
• #22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: This series dates back to 1980, but it has really only been a regular thing since the teams became conference rivals.
  
  It's one of those series that goes in waves. Back in the 1980s, Rutgers was the regular winner, then they played a couple of times in what was, in hindsight, a transitional period in the 1990s (split decision), and Cincinnati has been the dominant program in the early 21st century (although Rutgers did snap a five–game Bearcat winning streak in the series last year).
  
  If it is true that defense wins championships — or, at least, wins games — Rutgers, with its 14th–ranked defense, should have no trouble with Cincinnati (98th in the nation in offense).
  
  Cincinnati's defense (#44) might be able to compete with Rutgers' offense (#33), but if the Rutgers defense forces Cincinnati to commit turnovers (and Rutgers has been particularly good at making the other team fumble the ball away this season), it really might not matter what happens when Rutgers has the ball.
  
  I pick Rutgers.
• #23 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This really should be an entertaining game.
  
  Both offenses are in the Top 10. OSU's is slightly better, but it will have the challenge of facing Tech's 18th–ranked defense.
  
  Tech's three losses have been to ranked teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas). OSU has lost to Texas and K–State, too; OU is coming up next week. The Bedlam Series is always a big attention grabber in Oklahoma, and OSU has been good enough — and successful enough — in recent years (the Cowboys snapped an eight–game losing streak to the Sooners last year) to make folks in Oklahoma wonder if OSU can win two in a row against OU for only the seventh time in the last century.
  
  The Cowboys can't afford to be distracted by such thoughts this week — but my guess is they will. Texas Tech in what may well be regarded as an upset.
• Iowa at #23 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series is more than a century old, and Michigan has been in the driver's seat practically from the beginning.
  
  Well, Iowa did win the first encounter back in 1900 — but then won only one of the next 16. A pattern was set.
  
  Iowa fans are not accustomed to experiencing losing seasons, but the prospect is suddenly very real, now that the 4–6 Hawkeyes are on a four–game losing streak and must defeat both Michigan today and #16 Nebraska next week to finish 6–6.
  
  Michigan's offense hasn't been too horrifying, but the Wolverines' defense, which is 11th in the nation, has been.
  
  And it is because of the defense that I pick Michigan to win.
• #25 Kent State at Bowling Green, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have faced each other every year since 1962, and Bowling Green has thoroughly dominated the series, 40–9.
  
  Only recently has Kent made a series of it, winning the last two and three of the last six.
  
  And Kent (9–1) might make it three in a row with its superior offense.
  
  But Bowling Green (7–3) has the sixth–best defense in the country. The Falcons have only given up 20 points or more three times — but they have lost on all three occasions.
  
  I tend to favor good defenses, especially when the weather turns cold — as it is sure to be in Ohio this weekend.
  
  Consequently, I pick Bowling Green.

Last week: 17–4

Season: 174–44

BCS Chaos

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I have made no secret of my distaste for the so–called Bowl Championship Series — or BCS — that is supposed to match the two best college football teams in a national championship game at season's end, even though neither team must earn its spot in a playoff system.

Unless one or both must play in a conference championship game.

But no champions from other conferences must be conquered to reach the national title game. Only the pollsters and computers must be persuaded of the teams' worthiness — and they need not be familiar with the teams they choose.

In fact, there probably are coaches who vote in their poll or sports writers who vote in their poll who have had little, if any, exposure to the teams that ultimately are anointed to play for all the marbles.

That is my greatest gripe about the BCS system, I suppose.

Let's assume, if only for a minute, that LSU wins the SEC championship game against Georgia. A case can be made that the participants in that game earned their berths on the field — and, since the championship game will be played on a day when there will be very few other college football games, it is logical to assume that most, if not all, of the coaches who participate in their poll and the sports writers who participate in their poll will see the game.

But week in and week out, how many coaches do you suppose take time out from their own game preparation responsibilities to familiarize themselves with three or four dozen college teams by watching tape of and/or reading articles about them?

For that matter, how many sports writers take time from their coverage of local or regional programs to view the tapes and read the articles relating to those same three or four dozen college teams from around the country?

Probably few in either instance.

But, like lemmings allegedly committing mass suicide when they migrate, they follow the group. What may have begun as the perception of a few becomes a self–fulfilling prophecy.

Unless fate intervenes.

Fate intervened this weekend.

LSU, the top–ranked team in the nation, almost surely will remain where it was when the weekend began.

But #2 Oklahoma State as certainly will drop after its double–overtime loss to Iowa State on Friday night — a development that was doubly shocking. The Cowboys were expected to whip the Cyclones, even before the news reached the team that the OSU women's basketball coach and one of his assistants were killed in an airplane crash in central Arkansas.

News of the tragedy was expected to serve as even more motivation for the Cowboys — but it didn't.

They were stunned, I guess — or maybe they were simply lethargic. Their big showdown with Oklahoma is two weeks away — and the Cowboys have next week off. How could 10–0 Oklahoma State, with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State, get excited about playing 5–4 Iowa State?

Whatever it was, the Cowboys lost the game.

Folks were still absorbing that news when a couple of other bombshells were dropped on the Top 10.

First, the other Oklahoma school went down in spectacular fashion. The once–beaten Sooners faced Baylor University, a team that had never beaten Oklahoma in 19 previous attempts. In fact, it had been more than a decade since Baylor even came within two touchdowns of OU.

But, on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, the Bears beat the fifth–ranked Sooners — pretty convincingly, too.

And, as that equally shocking development was playing out in the heart of Texas, there was even more.

Fourth–ranked Oregon was losing its second game of the season. The Ducks' first defeat was way back at the beginning of the season in a Labor Day weekend clash with LSU. Oregon had been craving a rematch in the national championship game, but the loss to 18th–ranked Southern California undoubtedly put an end to any such hopes.

It can be argued, for that matter, that Oklahoma is also out of the national championship conversation. And, although they have only one loss, that one loss — to a six–win team — is probably too devastating for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to overcome.

Well, I've been saying it would take a state of utter chaos to build momentum for the implementation of a playoff system — and we may be witnessing the start of such a state.

But I want it to go beyond what has happened this weekend.

On Friday, my alma mater, the University of Arkansas (ranked sixth when the weekend began and certain to move up in the rankings later today following a 44–17 victory over Mississippi State yesterday) will travel to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Baton Rouge can be a scary place for most football teams — but not necessarily for Arkansas.

Sure, the Razorbacks are 1–4 in Baton Rouge since 2001, but all but one of those games were decided by three points or less. And the Razorbacks have won three of their last four games against the Tigers.

Another victory is not out of the question — and it could propel the Razorbacks into the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Especially if Auburn upends currently second–ranked Alabama in Saturday's Iron Bowl. If you're scoffing at that notion, let me remind you that Alabama–Auburn is a rivalry of long standing — and rivalries like that operate in spheres of their own.

There are other things that could happen in other games to change the dynamics of the BCS and make more college football fans think about the system that currently chooses the national champion and how it compares to a legitimate playoff system.

Undoubtedly, those things will be evident later today when the latest polls come out and then tonight when the latest BCS standings are released.

In the end, LSU may well be the only unbeaten team standing and may be the unquestionable choice to be national champion.

But I'm still pulling for chaos, and if what happened on Friday and Saturday is the beginning of revolutionary chaos, then all I can say is ...

Let the revolution begin.

But, for now, I am pleased.

Oregon-Stanford Showdown Set

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College football fans may be feeling something of a letdown with the LSU–Alabama game reduced to a memory, but there's another major showdown this weekend — the Pac–12 battle between #3 Stanford and #6 Oregon.

Stanford is unbeaten and boasts the front runner for this year's Heisman Trophy. But the Ducks, who beat Stanford by three touchdowns last year, have only lost once — to currently top–ranked LSU on Labor Day weekend.

And, while Stanford may have the top candidate for the Heisman on its roster, Oregon's offense has been just as productive.

If there is one thing that is clearly in Stanford's favor, though — besides the fact that the game is being played in California — it is that Stanford's defense has been so much better — and, consequently, may prove to be the difference.

The winner will almost certainly be the champion of the Pac–12 North and will play USC, Arizona State or UCLA for the conference crown in December.

Idle: #7 Oklahoma

Thursday

• #10 Virginia Tech at #20 Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the ninth time these teams have played each other, and the first eight games have followed a recognizable pattern.
  
  Georgia Tech won the first encounter, then Virginia Tech won the next two. Georgia Tech won their fourth encounter, then Virginia Tech won the next two. Georgia Tech won their seventh meeting, then Virginia Tech won last year.
  
  Consequently, Virginia Tech should win this time, right? But two of Georgia Tech's three victories over Virginia Tech have come when it was the host team, as it is this week.
  
  The numbers favor Georgia Tech, though. The Yellow Jackets have a far better offense, and their defense is close to Virginia Tech's.
  
  So I'm going to take Georgia Tech.


• #11 Houston at Tulane, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Most teams can only wish they dominated another the way Houston dominates Tulane.
  
  The teams have been conference rivals since 1996. Houston has won 10 of their 14 meetings, including the last eight (in five of those games, UH has scored more than 40 points; Tulane has exceeded 30 points only once in that time — and lost on that occasion).
  
  Houston's best–in–the–nation offense is light years ahead of Tulane's. Tulane has a slight edge on defense, but it isn't nearly enough to make up for the gap on offense.
  
  I pick Houston to win.

Saturday

• Western Kentucky at #1 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: What a time for Western Kentucky to be making its first–ever trip to Baton Rouge — the week after LSU's dramatic overtime victory over Alabama.
  
  Not much else to say, really. It would be an enormously shocking upset if Western Kentucky won, but I don't think that will happen. I pick LSU.


• #2 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Most people probably don't realize it, but these teams were playing each other long before the refugees from the old Southwest Conference (of which Texas Tech was one) joined the old Big Eight Conference to form the Big 12.
  
  They played each other for the first time during Franklin Roosevelt's first term as president. They even played in Japan once — during Ronald Reagan's last year in the White House.
  
  This will be the 39th meeting in the series and the 20th to be played in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13–3–3 against the Cowboys in Lubbock — but Oklahoma State won there last year, snapping a winless streak in Lubbock that went all the way back to the days of World War II, and Oklahoma State, with its third–ranked offense, looks too powerful.
  
  Historically, it would be much better for OSU to be playing this game in Stillwater, where the Cowboys are 10–8 against Texas Tech.
  
  Nevertheless, I pick Oklahoma State.


• #6 Oregon at #3 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In addition to being the marquee matchup of the week (probably nationally, certainly in the Top 25), this is an old series that began a few days before Warren Harding was elected president.
  
  This is the 72nd meeting between these schools, and Stanford holds a decisive edge, 41–29–1 — but Oregon has been far more successful in their head–to–head meetings in recent years. In fact, Oregon has won nine of the last 11 and handed Stanford its only loss last year.
  
  The Pac–12 is known as an offense–oriented conference, and both teams have top–notch offenses. Oregon is seventh in the country, and Stanford is eighth.
  
  Thus, the key to victory may be with the better defense, and that would be Stanford, ranked 18th nationally while Oregon is 62nd.
  
  I'll pick Stanford to win at home.


• #4 Alabama at Mississippi State, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have been playing each other since a few years after the turn of the last century, and Alabama almost always win.
  
  The Tide has rolled over the Bulldogs in both Tuscaloosa and Starkville, but the percentages are slightly more favorable for Mississippi State at home.
  
  I don't really think that will mean anything this time, but you never know. The SEC is the kind of conference in which the team with the worst record can beat the team with the best on, as they say, "any given Saturday."
  
  But Alabama won't be giving away anything this time, and I expect Alabama to win.


• TCU at #5 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: All three of the previous meetings between these schools came in bowls so all were neutral sites — technically.
  
  However, their first meeting was in the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl, which was played in Fort Worth, home of TCU. TCU won that game by a field goal, then lost the rematch in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, then won the third game in the next season's Fiesta Bowl.
  
  A brand–new chapter will be written in the series' history in Boise, and I pick Boise State, ranked 13th in both offense and defense, to prevail.


• Tennessee at #8 Arkansas, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Tennessee has won 10 of its last 12 games against Arkansas, but those two losses came in their last three trips to Fayetteville.
  
  What's more, Tennessee is winless in five SEC games while Arkansas' only SEC loss came against Alabama in September.
  
  The Razorbacks have the 23rd–best offense in the nation (easily superior to Tennessee, ranked 97th). Tennessee's defense is 31st and may be able to keep pace with Arkansas' offense, but the 55th–ranked Arkansas defense appears more than capable of stopping the Volunteers.
  
  I'll take Arkansas.


• Wake Forest at #9 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Clemson has owned Wake Forest in this series, winning more than 75% of the time, and the dominance has been even more pronounced in the games at Clemson, where the Tigers are 34–7 against the Demon Deacons.
  
  In fact, Wake Forest has won only one of the last eight games it has played in Clemson.
  
  Is there any reason to think Wake Forest will be competitive in this game? Well, no, not really. Clemson is 15th in the nation in offense, far ahead of Wake Forest. On defense, Wake Forest has the edge, but it is so slight that it is hard to see the Deacons' defense turning things around.
  
  I'll take Clemson.


• #19 Nebraska at #12 Penn State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams are meeting as conference rivals for the first time, but they are hardly strangers to each other.
  
  However, no one has really been talking about that.
  
  The first–ever conference clash between these two perennial powers has been overshadowed by the sex scandal that has rocked Penn State — and resulted in the firing of Joe Paterno — even though the Nittany Lions are the top contenders for the Leaders Division's berth in the Big Ten title game — and, with a record that is currently 8–1, could snare a spot in a BCS bowl game.
  
  That speaks volumes about the priorities in Happy Valley.
  
  There is no question that what has been unfolding at Penn State is a tragedy of immense proportions.
  
  These teams seemed to be permanently entrenched in the Top 10 when I was growing up, and they even played in the very first edition of the now–defunct Kick–off Classic in East Rutherford, N.J., but, oddly enough, they've never met in a bowl game.
  
  Nevertheless, this will be the 14th time they've played.
  
  Historically, the series is quite close. Nebraska has won six, Penn State has won seven. Typically, the home team wins. Nebraska is 4–2 at home against the Nittany Lions, and Penn State is 5–1 at home against the Cornhuskers.
  
  That would appear to favor the Nittany Lions — were it not for the distraction caused by this scandal.
  
  I don't know, at this point, who will be running the team on Saturday, but my personal guess is that Nebraska will buck the historical trend and win at Penn State.


• #13 Michigan State at Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Since 1990, Iowa is 10–5 against Michigan State and has won four of the last five.
  
  And a victory could put Iowa right smack in the middle of the Legends Division race. A loss would just about seal the currently 6–3 Hawkeyes' fate — and perhaps all but clinch the division title for the Spartans.
  
  Neither team has been terribly impressive on offense so defense may be decisive. If so, the advantage appears to belong to Michigan State, which is second only to Alabama in total defense. Iowa is 72nd in defense.
  
  I pick Michigan State to record a rare win in this series.


• #24 Auburn at #14 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: South Carolina's loss to Arkansas last week put Georgia in the SEC East driver's seat, but the Bulldogs are hardly home free.
  
  Speaking of home, the defending national champion Auburn Tigers will be coming to visit on Saturday. They can't possibly win the national title again, but they are ranked and there is a lot of history in this series that doesn't work in Georgia's favor.
  
  For one thing, the home team loses more often than it wins. Auburn is 22–15–2 at Georgia, and Georgia is 14–12–2 at Auburn. (Between 1916 and 1958, the teams played on neutral fields 39 times.)
  
  However, the Bulldogs have been much better on both sides of the ball, so I will pick Georgia to win at home — even though the home team doesn't usually win this game.


• Florida at #15 South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: These teams have met 31 times, and Florida has won 23.
  
  But times may be changing in this series. South Carolina won at Florida last year for the first time — ever. Before that, Florida was 18–1 against South Carolina since 1964.
  
  This year's game is in Columbia, where the Gamecocks have beaten Florida four times, most recently on Nov. 12, 2005. But you have to go back to the 1930s to find the only time when South Carolina won consecutive games against the Gators.
  
  That's the kind of history South Carolina is chasing this weekend. And if the Gamecocks can do it — and Georgia loses to Auburn — South Carolina could well be on its way to its second straight SEC Championship game.
  
  Neither offense has been impressive, and both teams have Top 20 defenses. South Carolina has an edge in both categories so I'll pick South Carolina in what should be a competitive game.


• #16 Wisconsin at Minnesota, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on the Big Ten Network: The series that eventually became known as the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe is in its third century, but only slightly more than half of the games between these two schools have actually been for that particular prize.
  
  The rest of the time, I suppose, it has been about pride and bragging rights.
  
  The Badgers appear to be significantly better on both sides of the ball so I'll take Wisconsin.


• Texas A&M at #17 Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There are two ways of looking at this series, I guess.
  
  On the one hand, it's been pretty competitive. The teams have played 14 times. A&M has won eight, Kansas State has won six.
  
  On the other hand, Kansas State has fared better — slightly — at home against the Aggies.
  
  The Aggies have a Top 10 offense (KSU's is 86th). The Wildcats are better on defense, but that really isn't saying much.
  
  If Texas A&M can manage to keep up its intensity in the second half — something the Aggies have struggled to do this year — I'll pick Texas A&M to win a mild upset.


• Washington at #18 USC, 2:45 p.m. (Central) on FX: Over the years, USC has had a decided advantage in this series.
  
  But, in recent years (well, the last two, anyway), it has been Washington that has been the winner.
  
  From 2002 to 2008, USC won every year, sometimes by ridiculous margins (56–0 in 2008, 51–24 in 2005) and sometimes by heart–stoppingly close ones (27–24 in 2007, 26–20 in 2006).
  
  Since the series began in the 1920s, USC has won more than 60% of the time. And I expect USC to get back on the winning track on Saturday.


• #21 Texas at Missouri, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Like most of the schools Texas has played, Missouri has compiled a losing record in its series with the Longhorns.
  
  This will be the 19th time the teams have played, and Texas has won all but three. But the bad news for Texas is that all three of those losses came in Columbia, where Saturday's game will be played.
  
  But Missouri hasn't beaten Texas since 1997 and has lost the last three games the two have played in Columbia. Since Missouri is heading for the SEC, this might be the Tigers' last chance to defeat Texas at home.
  
  The numbers say Missouri is marginally better on offense and Texas has a significant advantage on defense. That being the case, I will take Texas.


• #22 Michigan at Illinois, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These schools have been playing since 1898, and Michigan has won about three–quarters of the time — no matter where the game has been played.
  
  Michigan has a much better offense, and Illinois has a marginally better defense.
  
  I'll take Michigan to win.


• West Virginia at #23 Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This game will test Cincinnati's legitimacy as a Top 25 team.
  
  For one thing, the Bearcats are facing a formerly ranked team that would certainly like to return to the rankings — and beating a currently ranked team is probably the quickest route.
  
  For another, West Virginia has owned Cincinnati in this series. The Mountaineers have gon 7–1 in Cincinnati, but they lost there for the first time in their last visit (it was by only a field goal).
  
  This has the potential to be the most entertaining game of the weekend. West Virginia is better on both sides of the ball, and I think West Virginia will win the game.


• #25 Southern Miss at UCF, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: These teams have only been playing each other since 2005, but it's been a lopsided series in Southern Miss' favor.
  
  Southern Miss has won three in a row against UCF and is 5–1 overall. UCF is 0–3 at home in the series. That's dominant — albeit limited.
  
  Southern Miss has a much better offense, but UCF has a pronounced edge on defense, where it is ranked fifth.
  
  This will probably be considered an upset, but I'll take UCF.

Last week: 13–4

Season:160–37

College Football's Return Brings a Couple of Blockbusters

Tomorrow is the first day of September, and college football is back — or, at least, it will be tomorrow night.

It doesn't feel like football season around here yet — how could it with daytime highs still cracking the century mark in most places in Texas? — but that doesn't change the fact that football is back, and that is definitely a psychological boost. It is an indication that better times are ahead — must be ahead.

Most of the matchups in the Top 25 are typical for this time of year. The ranked teams are at home against clearly inferior foes.

There are exceptions, of course. Mississippi State is ranked and will be on the road tomorrow night. Two other ranked teams — South Carolina and TCU — will be on the road against unranked opponents this weekend.

A Top Ten team — #5 Boise State — will be on the road against a ranked rival, #19 Georgia.

But the real treat for college football fans this weekend is a game that has no home field advantage — technically speaking — only a regional one.

Third–ranked Oregon and fourth–ranked LSU will square off at Cowboys Stadium on ABC Saturday night, and the winner could very well be playing for the national championship in January. Both schools have been there before — and it is even possible that they could be destined to meet in a rematch at the end of the season.

Of course, it is also possible that either or both of these schools could flame out. I have written here recently of the minefield of a schedule that awaits LSU, and, although only two other schools on Oregon's schedule (Stanford and Southern California, back to back in November) are ranked in the preseason Top 25, four others received some support in the Associated Press' first poll of the season.

It's all ahead of us, football fans. Let it begin.

Thursday

• UNLV at #11 Wisconsin, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Wisconsin has beaten UNLV three straight times.
  
  The schools have played each other fairly regularly — and on both campuses — in recent years. The Rebels' last victory over the Badgers came in 2003 at home. They've never won at Wisconsin.
  
  I'm betting it will stay that way. Wisconsin should win.


• #20 Mississippi State at Memphis, 7 p.m. (Central) on FSN: They don't play each other every year the way they once did, but these schools resumed their series last year after an eight–year break, and they're continuing this year — and one thing has gone unchanged. Through good years and bad, Mississippi State has tended to beat Memphis.
  
  Last year, Mississippi State opened the season with a 49–7 win over Memphis. It was the first time they had played since Oct. 19, 2002, when Mississippi State won, 29–17.
  
  In fact, Mississippi State has beaten Memphis 11 straight times. Memphis' last victory in the series was in 1993, 45–35.
  
  Mississippi State should make it an even dozen.

Friday

• #14 TCU at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: When I was growing up, these schools were Southwest Conference rivals who met each year in what frequently amounted to a battle for last place.
  
  Times have changed. The Southwest Conference no longer exists. These teams are in separate conferences now, and TCU has been a factor in the national championship equation on several occasions, not unlike the days when my parents were children and TCU was a national power. Baylor has struggled, competing in a conference that includes Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech, but enjoyed something of a breakthrough season last year.
  
  The teams haven't played each other annually since their SWC days, but they have met occasionally — last year, for example, when Baylor came to Fort Worth and lost to TCU, 45–10. They played in Fort Worth to open the 2007 season as well — and with a similar outcome. TCU won that game, 27–0.
  
  Their last meeting in Waco, where they will play on Friday, was in 2006. TCU won a 17–7 defensive struggle that day.
  
  Prior to that, the teams hadn't met since the last Southwest Conference season in 1995. That game was played in Waco, and it was Baylor's last triumph over TCU, 27–24.
  
  TCU's last SWC win in Waco came in 1993, 38–13. I expect the Frogs to win there on Friday night.


• Youngstown State at #17 Michigan State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I have found no evidence that these schools have ever played each other in football, but I really don't need any precedents to make this prediction.
  
  I expect Michigan State to prevail.

Saturday

• Tulsa at #1 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on FX: The Sooners have won five straight against their instate rivals since 2001.
  
  Tulsa's last win in the series came in 1996 — on the same field where they will meet on Saturday. Before that, I think you have to go back to the FDR administration to find the last Tulsa triumph.
  
  Stranger things have happened, but I don't think Tulsa will reverse the trend against this year's Sooners. I'll take Oklahoma.


• Kent State at #2 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I don't believe these schools have ever faced each other.
  
  But, really, does it matter? On the face of it, I expect Alabama to roll over Kent State.


• #4 LSU vs. #3 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Seldom does one see such a crucial contest so early in the college football season, but that's what the folks in Arlington, Texas, have in this one.
  
  The teams have been in the national spotlight in recent years, and both have played for a national title, but this will be their first head–to–head meeting since 1977, when LSU hammered visiting Oregon, 56–17. Obviously, that won't give you much insight into this year's contest. The guys who played in that game are in their 50s today.
  
  I think the LSU squad of 2011 is good but overrated. I think Oregon is talented as well — and may well be the better team, but I'm not sure that Oregon will be able to prove that in the opener, especially after traveling through two time zones to play the game. LSU's weaknesses are more likely to be revealed in the course of a brutal conference campaign.
  
  But, this week, I'll take LSU. If nothing else, the Tigers should be better prepared for the anticipated 99° conditions.


• #5 Boise State at #19 Georgia, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools last met on Sept. 3, 2005, in Athens, Ga., and the Bulldogs won the game, 48–13.
  
  Trevor Amicone of the Deseret News says it is one of the 10 must–see college football games this year.
  
  That 2005 game is the only time since Boise State (originally a community college) moved up to Division I–A that the schools have faced each other. There isn't much history to go by. But I'll pick Boise State in an upset.


• Louisiana–Monroe at #6 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Let me start by saying that I think Florida State is a good team — but I also believe the Seminoles are overrated.
  
  That isn't likely to matter against Louisiana–Monroe, but it probably will make a lot of difference later in the season.
  
  Well, that is something to worry about at another time. For this week, Florida State should have little trouble.


• San Jose State at #7 Stanford: I'm not sure why, but these two schools did not face each other last season.
  
  They met in 49 of the previous 51 seasons, and some of the games were pretty close, but most of the games have been lopsided in Stanford's favor — like their last encounter in 2009, a 42–17 home win for Stanford.
  
  San Jose State hasn't won at Stanford since 2000 and has lost six in a row there since. Make that seven. I'll go with Stanford.


• Louisiana–Lafayette at #9 Oklahoma State: This will be the eighth time these teams have faced each other since 1986.
  
  There was a time when they played each other on a reasonably regular basis, but, until last year, they had only played once since 1999.
  
  OSU, it is safe to say, cruised to victory last season, and I expect the same this season.


• Chattanooga at #10 Nebraska: Big changes are happening in Lincoln, Neb., this season.
  
  The biggest, of course, is the Cornhuskers' jump to a new conference. If you've been a college football fan as long as I have, you can't help but feel a little sad at the thought of Nebraska leaving behind its rivals, old and new, especially its series with Oklahoma.
  
  In the days of the Big Eight, the Oklahoma–Nebraska series was one of the great annual rivalries in college football, and it was still a big deal, even if it was reduced to an occasional thing in the Big 12.
  
  Many times, Nebraska and Oklahoma had teams that were ranked in the Top 10 at the same time, and their regular–season battles often played prominent roles in bowl bids and national championships. Once, the teams were so good and their regular–season meeting was so thrilling and so intense that they were invited to play in a rare postseason rematch in the Orange Bowl.
  
  It's a new era now, though, and Nebraksa begins it with an opponent the Cornhuskers have never faced — Chattanooga. The Lincoln Journal Star reports that the coaches are taking a businesslike approach to the game — as they should. Nebraska may be thinking down the road to its Big Ten opener, but it should stay focused long enough to dispose of Chattanooga.


• #12 South Carolina at East Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: It's been more than 10 years since these schools, located about four hours apart, met on the gridiron.
  
  In that last meeting, on South Carolina's field in 1999, East Carolina prevailed, 21–3.
  
  Two years earlier, on the same field, East Carolina lost, 26–0.
  
  They met just about every year between 1985 and 1997 — and South Carolina won about two–thirds of the time, although East Carolina had the upper hand in the early 1990s. Who has the upper hand now?
  
  Well, considering that South Carolina is coming off what was its most successful season since joining the SEC — and East Carolina is coming off a 6–7 season that was capped with a Military Bowl loss to Maryland — I'm going to predict that South Carolina will win.


• Appalachian State at #13 Virginia Tech, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network: Most people know only one thing about Appalachian State's football team. Four years ago, the Division I–AA team from North Carolina traveled to Ann Arbor, Mich., to take on the Michigan Wolverines — and won in a shocking 34–32 upset.
  
  Appalachian State tried to duplicate that accomplishment the following year when the Mountaineers took on LSU — but the Tigers prevailed, 41–13.
  
  I'm inclined to think Virginia Tech will win this one as well.


• Missouri State at #15 Arkansas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Missouri State was once known as Southwest Missouri State.
  
  Arkansas and Missouri State have met three times in the last 11 years. Two years ago, the Razorbacks opened the season with a 48–10 win over Missouri State. In 2005, the Razorbacks kicked things off with a 49–17 win over Missouri State. In 2000, they blanked Missouri State in the opener, 38–0.
  
  Oddly enough, even though the schools are less than two hours from each other, I have found no evidence that they ever played in football when Missouri State was known as Southwest Missouri State.
  
  That really doesn't matter, though. The Razorbacks will be breaking in a new quarterback, and the running back who was expected to shoulder much of the responsibility for the ground game has been lost for the season, but I still expect Arkansas to win the game.


• South Florida at #16 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These schools have no history on the field, but, intriguingly, South Florida's coach, Skip Holtz, is the son of Lou Holtz, who was the last coach to lead Notre Dame to a national championship.
  
  Skip Holtz went 8–5 last year in his first year coaching South Florida, and he beat Clemson in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
  
  Brian Kelly is starting his second year at Notre Dame. He also went 8–5 last year, winning the Sun Bowl against Miami.
  
  It ought to be a good game — and a good indication whether Notre Dame is on the path back to national prominence. It would be a great story if Lou Holtz's son defeated his father's former employer, but I don't think it will happen. I think Notre Dame will win at home.


• Akron at #18 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The last time Akron played in Columbus, the offense didn't score. Ohio State won their 2007 encounter, 20–2.
  
  They haven't played each other regularly. They met in 2001, with Ohio State winning that one, too, 28–14, but I have seen no evidence that they played each other before that time.
  
  Series history doesn't really mean anything in this one — but offseason developments almost certainly will mean something to this year's Buckeyes. There's a new coach in town, and team leader Terrelle Pryor, who once spoke about returning for his senior year to protect his collegiate legacy, instead will be serving his five–game suspension in the NFL.
  
  By mid– to late October, I expect Ohio State to tumble from the Top 25 — after facing Miami (Florida), Michigan State, Nebraska and Wisconsin. As Stewart Mandel observes in Sports Illustrated, "Even a program as stacked as OSU isn't immune to a down year."
  
  Well, I expect it to be a down year for the Buckeyes. But, for now, I expect Ohio State to win.


• Miami (Ohio) at #21 Missouri, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: When these two schools met last season, I believe it was the first time they had faced each other on the gridiron.
  
  Predictably, Missouri won, 51–13.
  
  They will be playing on the same field this year, in Columbia, Mo., and I expect pretty much the same result. I'll take Missouri.


• Florida Atlantic at #22 Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Florida Atlantic has only been playing football since 2001, and it has only been a Division I–A team since 2005, but it does have a record against some of the heavyweights in college football — including the team it will face on Saturday, Florida.
  
  They met in November 2007. Tim Tebow, who would be presented with the Heisman Trophy a few weeks later, led the Gators to a 59–20 victory.
  
  No reason that I know of for expecting a different outcome this Saturday. I predict Florida will win easily.


• Utah State at #23 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: If these schools ever faced each other before, I have found no evidence of it.
  
  Utah State has played teams from the SEC before but never — apparently — Auburn. That's understandable — Utah and Brigham Young are the Utah schools with the football reputations. Utah State hasn't had as many wins as losses since 1997 and hasn't won a bowl game since 1993.
  
  Auburn isn't as good as it was last year, but the Tigers will be good enough. Auburn will defeat Utah State.


• Minnesota at #25 Southern California, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Last year, these teams met for the first time in 30 years, and USC won, 32–21.
  
  I expect pretty much the same outcome this time. I think USC will win.

Sunday

• SMU at #8 Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m (Central) on FSN: The last time these schools met in College Station, the Aggies rolled to a 66–8 victory. That was in 2005.
  
  That was the first time the teams had faced each other since 1995, when they were still Southwest Conference rivals, but you have to go back to the mid–1980s to find SMU's last victory over A&M, a 28–20 triumph at Texas Stadium.
  
  SMU's last win over A&M at College Station was in 1983, 10–7.
  
  Longtime SWC followers will recall that '83 and '84 were years when SMU was a national contender — thanks to the NCAA violations for which the school would be penalized severely a few years later. SMU is not as good as it was then, and A&M is better than it was. That, along with the home field advantage, should be enough to power A&M to victory.


• Marshall at #24 West Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the sixth straight season that these instate rivals have faced each other, and West Virginia won all five of the previous meetings.
  
  Most of the time, West Virginia has cruised to victory, but Marshall made it interesting last year, losing by 24–21 at home.
  
  This year's game will be played at West Virginia, however, where the Mountaineers have won by an average of 31–7.
  
  And I expect West Virginia to win by approximately that margin this time.

Random Football Thoughts

A sure sign that the college football season is approaching is the release of USA Today's preseason poll.

That poll was released yesterday, and it ranks Oklahoma #1. USA Today's Jack Carey calls it a "salute ... to tradition," and I guess that is true.

There are aspects of the Top 10 that are very traditional. OU at #1, with Alabama #2, LSU #4, Florida State #5, Texas A&M #9 and Wisconsin #10, is reassuringly traditional.

But then there are the teams like Boise State (#7) and Oregon (#3), who have been major contenders in recent years but meant nothing when I was growing up. They were the schools that Oklahoma and Alabama would put on their schedules to pad their stats.

I only remember Stanford (ranked #6) being a factor in the national polls once when I was a child — and that was primarily due to the presence of the eventual Heisman Trophy winner on the roster.

And Oklahoma State (ranked #8) was nowhere when I was growing up.

So, while USA Today's preseason Top 10 does resemble the ones I remember from my formative years, it isn't exactly a flashback. Not completely. There are a few variations.

That's a good thing, I suppose. Every sport — team or individual — needs its standouts, the ones that are usually contenders for the championship. It encourages a sense of stability, of continuity.

The sense of drama is provided by those who emerge to challenge the establishment for the championship.

As I have mentioned here many times, I grew up in Arkansas and got my B.A. at the University of Arkansas. It's part of my DNÅ to fantasize about the Razorbacks playing for a national football title — and there have been times in my life when they have been contenders, but they've always fallen short.

As the 2011 season approaches, the rankings reflect a healthy respect for recent history. The Southeastern Conference, after all, has produced the last five national champions, and Oklahoma has played in four national championship games in the last 11 years — so it is reasonable to rank OU at the top and Alabama, a perennial contender long before the Crimson Tide won the national title year before last, just behind the Sooners.

Those two might very well end up facing each other for the national title in January.

But there are many challenges facing both schools before they can punch their tickets for the national title game.

In Oklahoma's conference, Texas is the only other school to win a national championship since the inception of the BCS, and Nebraska was the only other member of the conference to play for one (losing to Miami a decade ago).

Nebraska (#11 in USA Today's preseason poll) hightailed it to the Big Ten and, thus, won't stand in OU's way. But four other members of the conference could — Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, #21 Missouri and #24 Texas — as well as nonconference foe #5 Florida State.

Alabama probably faces an even stiffer challenge. Four of 'Bama's five divisional rivals in the SEC — LSU, #14 Arkansas, #19 Auburn and #20 Mississippi State — are in the Top 20. One of the three teams the Crimson Tide must face from the SEC's other division — Florida — is in the Top 25, and another (Tennessee) received some votes in the poll but not enough to be ranked.

Alabama also must face Penn State in the second week of the season, which figures to be an early test for both. If they are still as highly regarded in the polls at that time, the Nittany Lions should have something to prove when they play the Tide. They finished 7–6 last year but enter the 2011 campaign ranked 25th by USA Today.

Obviously, it is by no means certain that either team will play for the national title — but it might be a little easier for OU since the Big 12 won't be playing a conference championship game now.

No such luck in the SEC. The survivor of what figures to be an all–out battle between five talented teams (and one potential spoiler) in the SEC West will have to face the champion of the SEC East in a championship game, and the SEC East could produce Florida or Georgia or Tennessee (the schools that won all the division titles between 1992 and 2009) or possibly South Carolina, the school that won it last year.

Recent history suggests that the SEC champion will have an outstanding quarterback. Nine of the last 11 MVPs in the SEC's championship game were quarterbacks.

Recent history also suggests that the winner of the SEC West is not the team that won it the year before — or even the year before that. Four different schools have represented the SEC West in the championship game in the last five years. Arkansas was one of them, but the Razorbacks haven't been in the title game since 2006. They may be overdue.

Frankly, I think the Razorbacks might have been the favorites to win the SEC West this year if Ryan Mallett hadn't decided to skip his senior year. But he did, and now the Razorbacks will have to break in someone new.

In the past, that might be a big problem at other schools, but Arkansas was never overly dependent on its quarterback when I was growing up there. The offense was always centered around the running backs, and, if the quarterback could take the snap from center and hand off to the tailback without fumbling somewhere in between, he did his job satisfactorily.

Things are different now, though. Bobby Petrino, the current coach, is a devotee of the passing game, and a team definitely needs more than just a guy to take a snap and hand off the ball at quarterback when the passing game is as vital as it is in Petrino's playbook.

Mallett's replacement will have some growing pains as he works his way into the offense, but there are a lot of experienced players around him to ease the transition.

The Razorbacks could be the champions of the SEC West. They face Missouri State, New Mexico and Troy in their first three games, which should give the new quarterback a little time to get something of a handle on things.

Then Arkansas faces a back–to–back–to–back challenge — a trip to Alabama on Sept. 24, a date with Texas A&M here in north Texas on Oct. 1 and a home game with Auburn on Oct. 8. If the Hogs can get past those three, they will have a well–earned week off, followed by road games against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Both schools have had their moments in the sun in the last decade, but recent history suggests they will struggle in 2011.

If the Hogs are unblemished at that point, they will take an 8–0 record into their home game with South Carolina, followed by home games against Tennessee and Mississippi State, who may or may not be ranked by that time. Then the Razorbacks wrap up their regular season with a post–Thanksgiving trip to Baton Rouge to play LSU — who also may or may not be in the rankings by that time.

Clearly, it's a tough schedule for the Razorbacks, as it always is. Success in the SEC depends as much on good fortune and lucky breaks as it does on talent, and, if Arkansas can avoid major injuries, the Hogs just might be playing for the SEC title — and perhaps the national title.

Well, I can dream, can't I?