JoePa's Final Chapter

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After the child sex scandal that engulfed Penn State only a few months ago, there simply was no way that Joe Paterno's obituary — when the time for it came — would not mention Jerry Sandusky.

In fact, I remember saying that very thing to some people right after Paterno was fired. I just didn't realize Paterno's obituary would be written so soon.

But, like Richard Nixon, who lived nearly 20 years after he resigned the presidency but whose obituary still mentioned Watergate in the first paragraph, it was inevitable that, at the time of his passing, Paterno would be remembered, at least in part, for the scandal that ended his coaching career.

• Paterno was a "a legend, lion and tainted leader," wrote Rana Cash for The Sporting News.


• The first paragraph of ESPN's obituary observed that Paterno "won more games than anyone in major college football but was fired amid a child sex abuse scandal that scarred his reputation for winning with integrity."


• Paterno was an "Ivy League–educated coach who transformed sleepy Penn State University into a national football power ... only to see his career end abruptly and his legacy tarnished," wrote Chris Dufresne in the Los Angeles Times.


• The New York Times has long had the reputation for writing the best and most thorough obituaries in the print business, but Richard Goldstein, nevertheless, could not avoid mentioning the scandal in his summation of Paterno's life.
  
  Paterno, he wrote, was "a symbol of integrity in collegiate athletics only to be fired ... amid a child sexual–abuse scandal."

Try as they might, no obituary — at least, none that I have seen today — has been able to avoid mentioning the scandal.

And some really have tried.

John Canzano, writing in The Oregonian last night when rumors were swirling that Paterno was dead, spoke of the "sad irony" that JoePa's life had become.

"[N]o discussion about Paterno will ever be complete without noting that Penn State's Board of Trustees fired him Nov. 9 in the aftermath of the child sex abuse charges against former assistant and close Paterno friend Jerry Sandusky," Canzano wrote — anticipating by a matter of hours the challenge facing those who would write Paterno's obituary.

Perhaps Jack McCallum of Sports Illustrated did the best job of balancing the good and the bad.

"For so long," McCallum wrote, "Joe Paterno seemed indestructible, more icon than man ... But when the end came, it came with such breathtaking suddenness that even non–believers must pause ... to wonder if it wasn't part of some cosmic script."

In the end, I suppose, we are left with our contradictory thoughts and feelings about this man who did so much good but whose memory will be forever linked to so much bad.

Taking Sides

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The Penn State story — and it really isn't necessary for me to elaborate on that at this point, is there? — is one that will not go away.

I was talking about it with my father yesterday. A lifelong sports fan, he reminded me during our conversation that, when choosing sides in a game, he ordinarily prefers to support a team rather than oppose one.

It's kind of like voting, really. My parents preferred to vote for someone they admired rather than against someone they despised, but they didn't always have a choice. Sometimes, they had to select "the lesser of two evils."

Dad said that, until the middle of last week, he hadn't decided whether he would root for Nebraska or Penn State in today's football game.

He's always been relatively neutral about both football programs. There are some football teams he just doesn't like, for one reason or another (and some of them go back to things that most people either never knew or forgot long ago), and he pulls against them on a regular basis, but, as I say, he's always been neutral about Nebraska and Penn State.

Maybe it's a regional thing. Dad respects Nebraska and Penn State and their accomplishments. But he was born and raised in the South, and he prefers to pull for a good Southern team any day. Once, when I was in high school, my family went to New Orleans during the Christmas break, and we attended the Sugar Bowl football game. Penn State was playing Alabama, and my father pulled for Alabama. It was a Southern team, and, even though my father was opposed to the governor of Alabama, George Wallace, he didn't hold that against the football team.

Anyway, when we spoke yesterday, he still wasn't speaking about pulling for either team today — but he said he had decided which one he would pull against. Penn State, of course.

I understand his anger and frustration, and there probably were millions of football fans who watched the game and pulled for Nebraska because of what happened at Penn State. (Those who did surely were pleased with the outcome.)

But that wasn't really fair.

Joe Paterno deserves to be the target of people's anger. He is no longer the coach. But he isn't the only guilty party.

The headline writer in me kind of wishes that the perpetrator of the child abuse, retired assistant coach Jerry Sandusky, had been a basketball coach — because the evidence of his guilt is so great that the case against him appears to be a slam dunk for the prosecution.

He, too, is no longer on the Penn State coaching staff.

But pulling for the team to lose, it seems to me, amounts to punishing the team and the students — and that is guilt by association.

The incident that led to the unraveling of the Penn State coverup took place nearly a decade ago when the victim was 10 years old. Most of the players who took the field today are the victim's contemporaries. Any one of them could have been — and, when all the details are known, it may be revealed that some were — assaulted around the same time.

It may have been blind luck if some or all of them were spared.

If we do not blame the victim — and I have heard no one who has — it is not fair for us to blame his teammates, either (that is, if he became a member of Penn State's football team).

Or his classmates, for that matter. There are roughly 45,000 students on Penn State's flagship campus. At a major university like that, which recruits athletes from across the country, the likelihood that any of your high school classmates would also be your teammates in college is probably very small — but there are bound to be some of your high school classmates in the general university population.

I grew up in Arkansas, in a town that was more than a bump in the road — but it wasn't a city, either. My graduating class set a school record — which is bound to have been eclipsed, probably on more than one occasion, since then — with slightly more than 300 graduates.

I went to college at the University of Arkansas, the largest campus in the state, and its enrollment at the time was about one–third of Penn State's on–campus enrollment today. I encountered at least one–tenth of my high school classmates there, either in class or in the campus bookstore — or at a Razorback football game.

I even knew some of the people who played in the band at the football games — so I know it is more than possible that the young man has run into people from his hometown if he is part of the Penn State student body.

Whether that young man is now a student at Penn State or not, though, his contemporaries there held a candlelight vigil last night for him and the other victims.

Well, they did it for themselves, too. There can be no doubt that, after the week they have endured, the students desired closure — and a return to semi–normalcy. Some also probably wanted to relieve any feelings of guilt they may have.

But I think they also wanted to express their solidarity with the victims in some way.

They weren't to blame for what happened — or what was done to cover it up. They should not be made the scapegoats.

Role Models

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Everyone has an opinion on the tragedy at Penn State.

I've been trying to avoid jumping in because, frankly, the pool seems pretty crowded.

But, when you get past the posturing and the judging, it still comes down to one thing, even though that one thing often seems to get lost.

Children were victimized by adults — in the original assault and in the effort to cover it up.

They are the victims — not Joe Paterno, not Jerry Sandusky, not Graham Spanier, not anyone in Penn State's administration — although, in true football fashion, there's been plenty of misdirection.

And even some who have defended the actions — or inactions, if you prefer — of the adults.

I have known about this matter for only a few days, and my conscience won't permit me to remain silent any longer.

But silence has been the problem at Penn State, as it has been in other organizations, for a long time.

In fact, until Penn State dismissed Paterno for not doing anywhere near enough after he became aware of his assistant's crimes, it seemed that the university would do as others have done — and conclude that protecting the institution is more important than justice for children.

Our society talks a good game when it comes to protecting children — but it is rare when a mafia mentality of circling the wagons and protecting one's own, even when one's own is clearly guilty, does not take over, and the code of silence descends on all.

In schools. In churches. In athletic locker rooms.

The really heinous part of this is the betrayal of the faith that children place in authority figures — like parents, coaches, pastors and teachers. Children don't always outgrow that absolute allegiance, either. Some adults continue to revere the authority figures from their childhoods long after those authority figures are revealed to be less than superheroes.

(My understanding is that the assistant who witnessed the assault waited a day before taking it to Paterno. He had to consult with his real father first.)

Those relationships have lives of their own, and so do violations of that trust. They live on, influencing others in due course. Whether one prays or not, the victims deserve whatever support we can give them. Most, if not all, will struggle with this for years.

Paterno, in an attempt to appear gracious after his dismissal, urged everyone to pray for the victims, and, on the surface, that does seem to be generous and compassionate.

But "JoePa," the father figure for countless young men, was not being selfless. He was being selfish.

It was face–saving misdirection.

A football coach to the end, he tried to fake out everyone with a little play–action that would give the appearance that he still called the shots. He would leave when the season was over — which, presumably, would have included the Big Ten Championship Game (if the Nittany Lions qualified for it) and perhaps the Rose Bowl.

That would have been the proper way for college football's winningest coach to exit.

He was still trying to exercise control in a situation where he had no more. He lost his credibility when he abandoned his responsibility.

And it is to the credit of Penn State's trustees that they were not faked out.

I have heard it argued by some that it is not always easy to know what to do, that Paterno may have believed he did what was expected of him, and I will concede that point. But JoePa was obliged to do more than the minimum. He occupied a special place in the state of Pennsylvania, not just Penn State.

In most places, a coach does not have more power than the school president, but coaches like Paterno do. With such authority comes an obligation to go beyond the very least that you can do. There may have been acceptable reasons for his actions — and, more significantly, his inactions — but that does not excuse the fact that, when he was told that a member of his staff had assaulted a child, he was obligated to do more than pass the buck, and he did not.

Maybe there was a time when he understood the special role he played in molding the lives that were placed in his care — perhaps, early in his tenure at Penn State, when he watched Woody Hayes strolling the Ohio State sidelines in three encounters in the 1970s.

I thought of Hayes when all this surfaced about Penn State. Hayes was another role model from an earlier era whose career came to an abrupt end under less than ideal circumstances — when he punched an opposing player whose interception secured a bowl game victory for his team.

Everyone always knew that Hayes was a volatile drill sergeant kind of guy, a human volcano, barking out orders and demanding that his players give every ounce of energy to the cause. His bark may have been worse than his bite, but nobody wanted to hear his bark.

Even so, Hayes was considered the kind of man that young men could look up to, and countless fathers wanted their sons to play football for him.

That changed in the blink of an eye.

A role model is expected to do more than talk the talk. He is expected to walk the walk, too.

I guess I first thought of Hayes' case in relation to Paterno's when I heard people say — as I have been saying for years — that Paterno should have retired a long time ago. I was reminded of something I read when Hayes was dismissed.

"People keep saying that Woody Hayes is a great football coach who overstayed his time," wrote the great Red Smith in 1979. "This implies that there was a time when slugging a member of the opposing team was proper coachly deportment."

Or that there was a time when it was OK for a coach to pass the buck when his assistant — who was, for a time, regarded by many as his hand–picked successor — sexually assaulted a child in the locker room.

JoePa Makes History

You wouldn't think that there would be anything left for Joe Paterno to accomplish at Penn State.

He's been coaching the Nittany Lions since 1966. Paterno has said that, when he told his father of his occupational decision, his father replied, "For God's sake, what did you go to college for?"

It was a fair question, I suppose, given that Paterno was taking over a program that had been mediocre at best in the previous years.

He began his tenure with a victory over Maryland on Sept. 17, 1966. That win — or the one over Boston College a few weeks later — probably qualified as his signature win in that first season at the helm. All the teams the Nittany Lions faced who had winning records that year defeated Penn State.

The next year, though, after a 1–2 start, Paterno led the Nittany Lions to seven straight wins and a Liberty Bowl date with Florida State (the teams fought to a 17–17 tie).

And the next two seasons were even better for Paterno and his teams. Their record was 22–0, which meant that, entering the 1970 season, they had won 27 of their last 28 games — and might have won all 28 if college football had allowed overtime in those days.

They also won a couple of Orange Bowls in the late 1960s, but they didn't win a national championship.

For a long time, the national title seemed a prize Paterno would never grab. He instructed many great players. He had many great teams. He coached against (and often defeated) the best of his contemporaries — Bear Bryant, Darrell Royal, Woody Hayes, Barry Switzer, Tom Osborne — but he always seemed to come up just short when the national title was on the line.

That changed in 1982, and he won another national crown in 1986.

He's won more bowl games than any other coach in the history of college football.

And now, he's won more games — period.

Yesterday's 10–7 triumph over Illinois was sloppy, but, as Stewart Mandel points out in Sports Illustrated, it was "exactly the type of game Paterno enjoys most" — one in which defense and rushing play prominent roles.

So it was appropriate for the occasion. It was Paterno's 409th Division I victory.

The milestone, in which Paterno passed Eddie Robinson of Grambling, is largely symbolic, Mandel writes, which is a fair conclusion. The Illini appear to have peaked, having been in the rankings a few weeks ago but they've stumbled lately.

Penn State has sometimes been criticized for not playing the toughest of schedules, but Robinson rarely, if ever, faced the kind of programs that Paterno has faced, particularly since Penn State joined the Big Ten nearly two decades ago.

It did seem more important when he surprassed Bryant's victory total a decade ago. Bryant, after all, built his record by beating the likes of LSU and Auburn and Georgia every year — not Rutgers and Syracuse and Temple.

Nevertheless, as Mandel said, Paterno deserves our recognition and praise. "In a sport filled with misguided, misbehaved or flat–out devious individuals, JoePa remains our moral compass, as he has for more than five decades."

Seems Like Old Times

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This weekend brings a revival of some great rivalries in college football.

Notre Dame and Michigan will face each other this weekend in the latest chapter of a rivalry that goes back to the 19th century, and the Southeastern Conference will be showcasing a couple of important clashes, too.

But Penn State and Alabama has to be the most magical matchup of the weekend.

For some folks, the cup is half empty. Steve Greenberg of The Sporting News complains that it is the only game between two ranked teams, but, after all, that is hardly by design. Schedules are made months, if not years, ahead of time.

What's more, it wouldn't be the only game between ranked teams if not for the fickle nature of early poll voting. Defending national champion Auburn won its opener — unimpressively — and fell from the rankings.

Two games between ranked opponents would be pretty good for this stage of the season — when most conference schedules have not yet begun and most contenders are content to play clearly inferior foes as a way to pad their individual statistics.

Penn State–Alabama, coming one week after the LSU–Oregon and Boise State–Georgia tilts, isn't too shabby for the second weekend in September.

Alabama coach Lou Saban has been respectful of the Nittany Lions. He is 3–3 against Penn State and says he expects a challenge when the Crimson Tide takes the field in Happy Valley.

It may be the only Top 25 matchup this week, but it's not a bad one. Enjoy.

Idle: #1 Oklahoma, #4 Boise State, #7 Texas A&M, #20 Baylor.

Thursday

• Arizona at #9 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This was the matchup that concluded both teams' seasons last year — a date in the Alamo Bowl, which Oklahoma State won, 36–10.
  
  Two meetings in the same calendar year is a clear trend in this series. Before that Alamo Bowl, I think you have to go back to FDR's administration to find the last time they met on the gridiron.
  
  But little attention is being paid to it in Stillwater, Okla., where OSU coach Mike Gundy has been emphasizing the Cowboys' long–term future in the Big 12 and the short–term outlook for quarterback Brandon Weeden, who threw three interceptions against Louisiana–Lafayette last week — two of which were returned for touchdowns.
  
  Gundy thinks Weeden will be just fine — and I'm inclined to agree. I expect Oklahoma State to win the game.

Friday

• #21 Missouri at Arizona State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It's been more than 20 years since Missouri and Arizona State played a football game.
  
  They met in a two–year, home–and–away series in 1989 and 1990, with each team winning its home game. Neither team was very good in those days.
  
  They're better now, and I think the game will be better than many people think it will. I'll take Missouri — but by a touchdown or less.

Saturday

• Northwestern State at #2 LSU: This won't be the first time the teams have faced each other, but it might as well be. They last met in 1942; LSU won, 40–0.
  
  Before that, they met in 1937. LSU won that one, too, 52–0. Before that, they played in 1926. LSU won that one as well, 47–0. LSU also won in 1925 (27–0), 1924 (40–0), 1923 (40–0), 1922 (13–0), 1921 (78–0) and 1920 (34–0). LSU also won in 1911 (46–0).
  
  Like the game this Saturday, all those other games were played in Baton Rouge. And I am certain that, like all those other times, LSU will win. The only question is, will Northwestern State finally score?


• #3 Alabama at #23 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's funny how things change over the years.
  
  When I was growing up, Alabama–Penn State was a marquee matchup: the Bear vs. JoePa, both teams in the Top 10 if not the Top 5, probably a Heisman candidate or two.
  
  It's still a big–name game, but it has lost some of its luster. When I was growing up, for example, you never saw those two teams on the same field unless they were playing in a bowl game (and those bowl dates were pretty rare).
  
  A couple of years before Bear Bryant retired (and then died), Alabama and Penn State started playing each other during the regular season, and they continued to do so until 1990 — but they didn't meet again until last season, when Penn State visited the defending national champion Crimson Tide and got walloped, 24–3.
  
  I think both teams are overrated, but Alabama deserves to be in the Top 10. I'm not sure Penn State belongs in the Top 25. And I'll pick Alabama to win.


• Charleston Southern at #5 Florida State, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: I don't think these schools have a history.
  
  But does it matter? I expect Florida State to win handily.


• #6 Stanford at Duke, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: It's been nearly 40 years since Duke hosted Stanford in a football game.
  
  The schools met in 1971 and 1972, just after the only Heisman Trophy winner in Stanford history (quarterback Jim Plunkett) made his professional debut. Today, Stanford has what may be its second Heisman–winning quarterback in Andrew Luck.
  
  Could that be a lucky sign for Stanford? Could be. I'll take Stanford.


• Oregon State at #8 Wisconsin: Oregon State has played some quality nonconference opposition in recent years — TCU and Boise State last year, Cincinnati and BYU in 2009, Utah in 2008, not to mention Oregon and Southern Cal darn near every year.
  
  And Oregon State usually gives as good as it gets — but rarely do the Beavers win those games. And, frankly, I think the Badgers have more than they need to win this one — including their typically boisterous home crowd. I'll take Wisconsin.


• Fresno State at #10 Nebraska, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Fresno State tends to field a competitive team, but let's be candid here.
  
  When you're playing at Nebraska, you're playing on a big–time stage, and Fresno doesn't usually win those. Sometimes, FSU comes close, but I don't expect that to happen this time. I'll go with Nebraska.


• #11 Virginia Tech at East Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This will be the fifth straight year these schools have played each other in football — and East Carolina did win one, in 2008 when they opened the season in Charlotte, N.C.
  
  But Virginia Tech has won the last two meetings and I suspect the Hokies will win this one, too.


• #12 South Carolina at Georgia, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: South Carolina is only 6–13 against Georgia since joining the Southeastern Conference in 1992.
  
  But, after advancing to their first SEC Championship game last season, the Gamecocks (who beat Georgia at home last year) appear to be on the brink of their second win at Georgia in the last 10 years.
  
  I believe South Carolina will win the game — but narrowly.


• Nevada at #13 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FX: These schools have never been regular opponents, but this meeting will end an eight–year drought.
  
  Their last meeting was on Sept. 6, 2003, on Oregon's turf, the same place where they will play this Saturday. Oregon won that one, by the way, 31–23. Prior to that, the schools opened the 2000 season (again, on Oregon's field), and the Ducks prevailed that time, too, 36–7.
  
  They met the year before that, in 1999, and Oregon recorded what is probably the most lopsided win in the series' history — 72–10.
  
  I think Oregon will win this time, too, but not by 62 points — probably more like 10.


• New Mexico at #14 Arkansas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams haven't faced each other since 1987, when Arkansas beat a winless New Mexico squad in Little Rock, the same place they will meet on Saturday.
  
  They played in Little Rock in 1983 — and Arkansas won that one, too.
  
  And, as nearly as I can tell, that's been it for the series. Not much to go on.
  
  But here is something that is worth remembering: Arkansas doesn't play as many games in Little Rock as it did when I was growing up, but, with the exception of a couple of losses to LSU, Arkansas hasn't lost in Little Rock since 1997, and it hasn't lost a nonconference game there since 1993.
  
  Arkansas should win by a wide margin.


• Toledo at #15 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These schools have met twice before — in 1998 and 2009 — and Toledo has yet to score on the Buckeyes.
  
  I expect Ohio State to win by at least three touchdowns — and I haven't a clue whether Toledo will finally score.


• #16 Mississippi State at Auburn, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There have been times in the history of this series when Mississippi State has held the upper hand, but not in the first decade of the 21st century.
  
  Auburn won nine of the last 10 meetings (the exception was 2007), but many people think that period of dominance may be about to end. MSU has been on the rise, and observers felt all along that Auburn would drop off after losing Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton to the NFL — but I don't think anyone expected Utah State to take Auburn to the wire in the opener.
  
  That suggests to me that Auburn's 16–game winning streak is in jeopardy. The Tigers' stay in the Top 25 has already ended, and I'll take Mississippi State to prevail.


• Florida Atlantic at #17 Michigan State: This will be the third time these teams have met since 2008.
  
  Michigan State won the first two games, and I fully expect the Spartans to win this time, by four or five touchdowns.


• UAB at #18 Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSSouth: On Aug. 31, 2002, UAB and Florida met in the season opener, and Florida roared to a 51–3 victory.
  
  Florida won a couple of national titles and a Heisman Trophy in the years that followed. UAB had one winning season.
  
  I expect Florida to win.


• Norfolk State at #19 West Virginia, noon (Central) on Big East Network: There really isn't much to say about this game — except that something is wrong if West Virginia doesn't beat Norfolk State by about five touchdowns.


• Ball State at #22 South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big East Network: Ball State is hardly a football powerhouse, having won more games than it lost only five times in the last 20 years.
  
  South Florida, however, may well be an emerging powerhouse.
  
  Granted, beating Notre Dame doesn't necessarily qualify as the ultimate test for a program — but it was when Lou Holtz, who happens to be the father of South Florida's coach, was running the show in South Bend.
  
  Anyway, while Notre Dame probably does not deserve to be in the rankings, South Florida probably does — and I expect South Florida to defeat Ball State by about 20 points.


• Brigham Young at #24 Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools haven't faced each other since the waning days of the Reagan administration.
  
  BYU was considered something of a powerhouse in those days; Texas, not so much. Anyway, BYU beat UT in back–back seasons in 1987 and 1988.
  
  Things are a bit different now. Texas comes into this game with a Top 25 ranking and BYU comes into it unranked so I suppose the roles have been reversed — but BYU got some support in the latest poll and could catapult into the rankings by knocking off the Longhorns.
  
  I think that is possible because I believe that Texas, which lost seven of its last nine games in 2010, is overrated — and BYU is the kind of team that could expose the Longhorns for what they are. You can't really learn anything from a Texas squad that opened the season with a home win over Rice.
  
  This week's game is a much greater test, and I think Brigham Young will pass it.


• #25 TCU at Air Force, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: TCU has won five of six games with Air Force since they became conference rivals in 2005.
  
  And TCU, which was 36–3 from 2008 to 2010, is smarting from its loss to Baylor last week.
  
  As I have mentioned here before, neither school was very strong when I was growing up. But times have changed, and TCU hasn't lost back–to–back games since September 2007.
  
  TCU has struggled in its games at Air Force. The Frogs won a 20–17 battle in 2009 and lost by the same score in 2007. I expect another close one, but I'll pick TCU to prevail.

Last week: 21–2

Season: 21–2

JoePa's Achievement

I guess it is only fitting to recognize that Penn State's Joe Paterno achieved a milestone last weekend that may have the staying power of DiMaggio's hitting streak.

Paterno notched his 400th coaching victory when Penn State scored 35 unanswered points and beat Northwestern.

Nearly 30 years ago, when the legendary Paul "Bear" Bryant retired, he was the winningest coach in Division I–A with 323 wins. Since then, only a handful of coaches have eclipsed him and only two were on the Division I–A level.

One of those men, Bobby Bowden, has retired, and the other is Paterno, still coaching at the age of 83. He has been coaching the Nittany Lions since 1966.

Now, I'm a student of history. I've studied it all my life, minored in it in college. And it helps me to put these things into historical perspective. So here goes ... Lyndon Johnson was president when Paterno coached Penn State for the first time. That means there have been nine presidents during his tenure, including the current one. Three of those presidents have served two full four–year terms.

Paterno had been coaching at Penn State for more than 10 years when John Paul II became pope. And John Paul's turned out to be the second–longest papacy in the history of the Catholic church (third–longest if you include the undocumented duration of the papacy of the first pope, St. Peter).

Whenever Paterno does retire, literally generations of Penn State football fans will face a coaching transition that is all too familiar to followers of other sports teams but will be entirely new to them.

Culture shock of the highest order.

That's still sometime in the future, though, and some Penn State fans may prefer to occupy that cozy cocoon of denial — but the realists, like those who acknowledge that their parents are in a period in their lives when what once was deemed impossible seems not only possible but probable.

There have been whispers and rumors going around for years. As an example, Kevin Scarbinsky speculated in the Birmingham (Ala.) News more than three months ago that Paterno's days were numbered.

Indeed they are. All our days are numbered. JoePa, as I say, is 83. He is a mortal man, and, like all mortal men, he will die one day. Whether he has retired by that time or he collapses on the sidelines at a Penn State game remains to be seen.

It is certain, though, that his achievements will endure long after he is gone — and probably long after I am gone, too. I doubt that I will ever see another coach reach the milestone Paterno reached on Saturday. His nearest rival among active Division I–A coaches is Ohio State's Jim Tressel, who is a little more than halfway there.

Tressel, by the way, is Paterno's opponent this week.

Tressel is quite comparable to Paterno. For instance, JoePa has won about three–quarters of his games and so has Tressel.

When JoePa started at Penn State — and for a few years thereafter — college football teams only played 10 games in a regular season. There were fewer bowl games in those days, and there were years when truly deserving teams did not get to play in a bowl.

All things considered, though, Paterno has been remarkably successful at getting into bowls. He has done so about 80% of the time.

Tressel coaches in an era when teams can play in as many as 12 games during the regular season. Some conferences (not, at the moment, the Big Ten) play championship games at the end of the regular season so, with bowl bids and conference championships, some teams have the opportunity to play in as many as 14 games in a season.

Tressel has been coaching for about a quarter of a century. He is currently 57 years old. Think he can keep coaching for another quarter of a century?

Of course, it doesn't have to take quite that long to match Paterno. Tressel needs about 160 wins. Currently, he can't coach in 14 games in a season because the Big Ten does not presently play a championship game, but he could coach in 13 games per season.

And if he wins every game every year, he could, conceivably, pass Paterno around the year 2023. That's an unrealistic expectation, though.

On the other hand, if he wins about three–quarters of his games each year, as he has been doing — in other words, about 10 wins per season — he could get to 400 by 2027.

Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer is next on the list, only a few wins behind Tressel, but he had to work harder to get them. His winning percentage is around .667.

You'd have to figure that Beamer is a long shot to catch Paterno. He's 64. He does coach in a conference that plays a championship game, so he could, conceivably, coach in 14 games a season. But, at his present winning rate (which wasn't helped by that loss to James Madison earlier this season), he would need to coach about 18 more seasons to match Paterno — and Beamer would need to take Tech to the ACC title game and to a bowl game in each of those seasons for that to be possible.

Texas' Mack Brown is somewhere in between. He is 59 years old so he is a little older than Tressel, but he coaches in a conference that has a championship game so he could coach — at least in theory — in 14 games each year. His winning percentage is slightly better than Beamer's but he has farther to go. At the rate his teams have been winning, he could expect to catch Paterno in about 20 years.

No one else in Division I–A is even halfway to Paterno's total.

When Bryant retired at the age of 69, he was asked what he would do with his time. I'll probably croak in a week," he replied. And then, four weeks after his final game, Bryant did in fact die of a heart attack.

Bryant was only 69. One has to think that, if Paterno does retire, a similar fate may await him. Coaching gives him a sense of purpose.

Watch JoePa while you can. He is the last of a vanishing breed.

Tenth–ranked Michigan State is idle this week. All times are Central.

Tonight

• #4 Boise State at Idaho, 8 p.m. on ESPN2: Let's be clear about what this is. This is a mismatch.
  
  True, it is a conference game. But it is still a mismatch.
  
  Boise State has won its last 11 against Idaho and is really in no danger of losing this week.
  
  Idaho's defense is one of the worst in the nation, and it must try to stop the fourth–best offense, which is led by the nation's #1 passer, Kellen Moore. Idaho, meanwhile, is mediocre at best on offense and certainly no challenge for Boise State's defense.
  
  Boise State should make this its 12th straight win over Idaho.

Saturday

• #1 Oregon at California, 6:30 p.m. on Versus: Oregon has won six of the last 10 meetings, but Cal had won three in a row before Oregon won last year, 42–3.
  
  I guess everyone knows by now that Oregon has the best offense in the country, but did you know that Cal is ranked 12th on defense? That could produce something of a draw when Oregon is on offense. Maybe not — but it could.
  
  Cal's coach was once on Oregon's coaching staff — "the offensive coordinator for one of the greatest teams in Oregon football history," writes Ron Bellamy in the Eugene (Ore.) Register–Guard.
  
  And that factoid might really be more than the trivia item it is if he had been on Oregon's staff a year or two ago when most of the young men who are playing now were recruited.
  
  But Jeff Tedford has been coaching at Cal for nearly a decade now, and he has no first–hand insights to share with his players and staff. He can only marvel at what has been
  
  Seems to me this game may well be decided by what happens when Cal has the ball — and, in that regard, Oregon's advantage is more decisive.
  
  I pick Oregon.


• Georgia at #2 Auburn, 2:30 p.m. on CBS: This must be one of the more competitive ongoing series in the South. Since 1980, Auburn holds a 15–14–1 advantage over Georgia.
  
  Recently, the momentum has been with Georgia. The Bulldogs have won the last four encounters. And that includes the last two games played at Auburn.
  
  Plus, there could be some distractions for Auburn this weekend. Tom Fornelli writes, for CBS Sports, that the investigation into the recruitment of Heisman Trophy prospect Cam Newton is continuing. That could get in the way.
  
  If Auburn beats Georgia, the Tigers will clinch the SEC West, regardless of what happens in their season finale against Alabama. But that may not be an easy task.
  
  Clearly, Auburn's offense has been very productive. Newton has propelled it to #6 in the nation. But Georgia's defense may well be up to the challenge. It is ranked 15th in the nation, 13th against the run.
  
  Newton is a multi–faceted quarterback, but his ability to run has befuddled many defenses this year. It might not be so troublesome for Georgia.
  
  Meanwhile, Georgia's offense, ranked 54th, has been mediocre, but it might not have too much difficulty with Auburn's defense, which is 52nd in the nation. Even more interesting, Georgia's strongest offensive attribute, its passing game, might roll up some yardage against Auburn's porous pass defense, which is 95th in the nation.
  
  This is bound to be considered an upset, especially since the SEC East has struggled against the West this year, but I'm going to pick Georgia, which has won four of its last five after getting off to a sluggish start.


• San Diego State at #3 TCU, 3 p.m. on Versus: TCU is 5–0 against San Diego State since joining the Mountain West Conference.
  
  With the nation's #1 defense and #8 offense, TCU looks too powerful for San Diego State, even though the Aztecs have been pretty good on both sides of the ball — probably better than you think.
  
  There has been talk that TCU might wind up playing for the national title. Perhaps it is a long shot, but rumor has it that, if Auburn stumbles against Alabama or in the SEC championship game, TCU would be next in line to face Oregon in January.
  
  Seems to me that such talk amounts to jumping the gun, and, as long as TCU doesn't allow itself to be distracted by talk of what might be, TCU should win this game.


• Louisiana–Monroe at #5 LSU, 6 p.m. on ESPN3.com: LSU hasn't been terribly impressive on offense, but the Tigers' defense is sixth in the nation. That's a lot better than Louisiana–Monroe.
  
  With LSU coming off its victory over Alabama, it's probably a good thing that the Tigers get what looks like a breather this week.
  
  LSU should have little trouble winning this one.


• Indiana at #6 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. on ESPNU: Indiana has lost five in a row to Wisconsin, and it has been nearly 10 years since the Hoosiers won in Madison.
  
  If that isn't enough, Wisconsin has been a lot better on offense and defense — especially defense — than Indiana.
  
  Couple that with the home crowd, and I expect a Wisconsin win.


• #7 Stanford at Arizona State: For all intents and purposes, this has been an evenly divided series since 1993.
  
  But, in this series, it's worth noting that &mdash at least in the last 14 or 15 years — teams tend to win in threes.
  
  For example, Stanford won last year, but that snapped a three–year Arizona State winning streak. And, before that, Stanford won three in a row (from 1999 to 2001). And Arizona State won the three before that (from 1996 to 1998).
  
  Does that mean Stanford is about to embark on a three–year run of its own? Not necessarily. ASU has beaten Stanford at home every time they have met in Tempe in the 21st century.
  
  But the numbers suggest that history may be about to change for Stanford. Stanford is 13th in the nation in offense and should be able to handle Arizona State's 48th–ranked defense. When ASU has the ball, its 26th–rated offense may have more difficulty with Stanford's 37th–ranked defense.
  
  I expect Stanford to win.


• Penn State at #8 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN: Penn State has only beaten Ohio State six times in the 17 games they have played since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993.
  
  But the Nittany Lions won the last time they visited Columbus, snapping a six–game losing streak at The Horseshoe.
  
  I doubt that Penn State can duplicate that accomplishment, especially with its average–at–best offense and defense going up against Ohio State's units, which are in the Top 20 in both categories. it must be particularly daunting for the Nittany Lions' #68 offense, which must try to score against the Buckeyes' #3 defense.
  
  I'll take Ohio State.


• Kansas at #9 Nebraska: It would be hard to imagine a more one–sided series than this one.
  
  In the last 40 years, Nebraska is 38–2 against Kansas. And, in fact, Kansas has not won in Lincoln since 1968. Richard Nixon had not yet been elected president. The hits on the radio were "Hey Jude" and "Mrs. Robinson." Gas cost about 30 cents a gallon.
  
  Obviously, a few things have changed since then.
  
  Statistically, it doesn't seem that Kansas has a prayer. Nebraska is in the Top 25 in both offense and defense. Kansas' offense is 90th in the nation, and its defense is 87th. I pick Nebraska.


• #17 Mississippi State at #11 Alabama, 6:15 p.m. on ESPN2: Mississippi State has only won two of its last nine games against the Crimson Tide, and the Bulldogs hardly ever win when they travel to Alabama.
  
  Does that mean the Bulldogs are due? I don't know, but one thing I can say for sure. Coming into this game, Mississippi State is the team with the momentum. The Bulldogs have won six in a row. Alabama, meanwhile, lost to LSU last week, its second loss this season.
  
  'Bama is ranked higher in both offense and defense, and Alabama is at home. I'm guessing that Alabama will win, although I wouldn't be surprised if Mississippi State keeps it close.


• #12 Oklahoma State at Texas, 7 p.m. on ABC: Texas has won 12 in a row against Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys haven't won in Austin since Franklin D. Roosevelt was president.
  
  It's been a topsy–turvy kind of year for Texas, though. If the Longhorns lose to OSU, I think it will be the first time that Texas has lost to both OU and OSU in the same season. After Texas played for a national championship last January, I didn't think such a thing was possible.
  
  Of course, I wouldn't have thought that Baylor and Iowa State could beat Texas in Austin, either. Or that the Longhorns would go to Lincoln, Neb., and handle the Cornhuskers better than they did in last year's Big 12 title game.
  
  Brandon Chatmon has five reasons why Oklahoma State is winning, and he lists them in The Oklahoman.
  
  First on his list is the offensive line, and it's obvious the impact the line has had on the offense's productivity. OSU's offense is third in the nation, thanks to Kendall Hunter's running and Brandon Weeden's passing. But my guess is that OSU's offense will have its hands full with Texas' fifth–ranked defense.
  
  That's the marquee matchup, but the game may well be decided by what happens when Texas has the ball. The Longhorns' offense is an unimpressive 65th in the nation, but OSU's defense is a dismal 89th.
  
  Still, I feel more persuaded by Chatmon's observations — that OSU is only allowing one sack per game, that the Cowboys' defense hasn't been spectacular but it leads the Big 12 in turnover margin, special teams are better and key players have avoided injury this season.
  
  What's more, if you're Texas, home hasn't been the friendliest place to be this season.
  
  I'll go with Oklahoma State.


• #13 Iowa at Northwestern, 11 a.m. on ESPN: There was a time when Northwestern was an easy mark for Big Ten schools. But Iowa has struggled against the Wildcats, losing four of their last five encounters, and the Hawkeyes haven't won at Northwestern since 2001.
  
  Well, that's what is working against the Hawkeyes — along with the fact that the teams are both ranked 42nd nationally in offense.
  
  On defense, however, Iowa is eighth in the nation. Northwestern has been struggling and is 75th.
  
  I expect defense to be the difference, and Iowa will win the game.


• Texas–El Paso at #14 Arkansas, 6 p.m. on ESPNU: The last time these schools met, Arkansas was still in the Southwest Conference. It was 1989, and Arkansas handled UTEP, 39–7.
  
  As far as I know, that is the only time they have faced each other in football.
  
  QB Ryan Mallett has the Arkansas offense ranked 10th in the nation. The Arkansas defense is 27th. Meanwhile, UTEP's offense is 64th, and its defense is 66th. Advantage, Arkansas.


• #15 Utah at Notre Dame, 1:30 p.m. on NBC: I don't think these teams have ever played each other in football.
  
  Statistically, it doesn't appear to be much of a contest. The offenses are reasonably comparable, but Utah has the clear edge on defense. The Utes are 13th in the nation, while the Irish are 77th.
  
  I'll go with Utah.


• #16 Virginia Tech at North Carolina, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: Virginia Tech is 5–1 against North Carolina since joining the ACC in 2004.
  
  The exception came last year, when North Carolina won at Virginia Tech. Now, the Hokies are trying to return the favor on North Carolina's home field.
  
  The teams are about even on defense so the deciding factor should be offense. And, in that regard, Virginia Tech has the clear edge. The Hokies are 38th in the country; the Tar Heels are 61st.
  
  I pick Virginia Tech.


• USC at #18 Arizona, 7 p.m. on ABC: Arizona snapped a seven–game losing streak to USC last year with its 21–17 win in Los Angeles.
  
  Now, the Wildcats will be trying to do something they haven't done in nearly 10 years — beat USC at home.
  
  Since both teams are in the Top 20 nationally in offense, the pressure will be on the defenses to perform. USC, which is 97th in the nation in defense, simply can't keep up with Arizona; the Wildcats, on the other hand, are ranked 20th in the country in defense.
  
  Because they have the stronger defense, I'm picking Arizona to do something it hasn't done since 1999–2000 — and has rarely done since it joined the Pac–10: Win back–to–back games over Southern California.


• Texas Tech at #19 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. on ABC: For the last six years, the home team in this game has been the winner, and the Sooners have won their last six home games against Tech.
  
  The Sooners were humiliated last week by a Texas A&M team that may well be better than expected, even a few weeks ago. This is their opportunity to prove they are as good as their preseason hype. And, no doubt, OU has come through on offense, boasting at #16 national ranking. But Tech has been decent on offense, too, ranking 21st in the nation.
  
  If there is little difference between the two on offense, then it may come down to which defense does the job, and it looks like OU has a decisive edge in that category. Neither team has been spectacular on defense, and OU seems particularly suspect. The Sooner defense outranks the Red Raider defense, 68 to 106, but I have to wonder about any defense that is only 68th in the nation after facing the relatively light schedule that OU has faced.
  
  Well, anyway, OU's two losses this season have come on the road, and they'll be playing their last two games at Baylor and at Oklahoma State. Both games will be challenging. This one, though, is being played in Norman.
  
  I expect Oklahoma to win.


• Kansas State at #20 Missouri, 11:30 a.m. on FSN: For 13 straight years, from 1993 to 2005, Kansas State dominated Missouri, winning every year.
  
  Most of those weren't very good years for the Missouri football program. There were few winning seasons during that time for the Tigers, while the Wildcats were usually ranked and sometimes played for the Big 12 championship.
  
  But the roles have been reversed in recent years. Today, it is Kansas State that is lucky to break even, and it has been Missouri that has been ranked. Missouri is currently riding a four–game winning streak against Kansas State, and the Tigers have won their last two at home against the Wildcats.
  
  What's more, Missouri has a clear advantage on both sides of the ball. I pick Missouri to extend its winning streak against K–State to five in a row.


• #21 Nevada at Fresno State: Nevada is 8–4 against Fresno State since the teams became members of the same conference.
  
  Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick is sixth in the nation in passing efficiency, and common sense would tell you he should enjoy some success in this game. It could be challenging, though. Fresno State's defense, overall, is 38th, but its pass defense is rated higher than its run defense.
  
  Fresno can't afford to focus all of its attention on defense on stopping Kaepernick, though. Vai Taua has been running for well over 100 yards a game for Nevada.
  
  I'll pick Nevada to win.


• #22 South Carolina at #24 Florida: South Carolina is aiming for its first SEC East title and a berth in the SEC championship game.
  
  The task it faces this week is formidable. Even though Tim Tebow is no longer on Florida's roster, the Gators have virtually owned the Gamecocks since South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992. In the 18 games they have played, Florida has won 17 — and the only exception came at South Carolina in 2005.
  
  Florida is 9–0 at home against South Carolina since they became conference rivals.
  
  Obviously, history is solidly against South Carolina.
  
  For that matter, so are the numbers from this season. Both teams seem to have the advantage over the other when they're on defense, but the Gators' defense is seventh in the nation. That should make things interesting when South Carolina has the ball.
  
  I know the Gamecocks are eager to win the East, and one of these days they will. But, this week, I expect Florida to win. It may be closer than it has tended to be in this series, but I still think this is the Gators' game to lose.


• #23 Texas A&M at Baylor, 6 p.m. on FSN: These schools were Southwest Conference rivals so their history goes back well before the current incarnation of the Big 12.
  
  Since 1980, the Aggies are 22–6–2 against the Bears, and they have only lost to Baylor twice since the two teams became part of the Big 12. But both of those losses have come in Waco.
  
  Both teams have Top 20 offenses so the outcome may depend on which team has the more effective defense. And, in that regard, Texas A&M clearly has the edge. The Aggie defense is 47th in the nation; the Bear defense is 96th.
  
  Baylor's had a good year, but I think the Bears will struggle to stop the Aggies. I'll take Texas A&M.


• Southern Mississippi at #25 UCF, 11 a.m. on CBSCSN: The two teams became conference rivals in 2005, and Southern Miss is 4–1 against UCF in that time.
  
  UCF's only win came on the road. UCF is still looking for its first win at home against Southern Miss.
  
  Southern Miss is 25th in the nation in both offense and defense. Based on the numbers, UCF, with its 18th–ranked defense, will have a slight edge when Southern Miss has the ball, but Southern Miss should have a considerable advantage over UCF's 57th–ranked offense.
  
  I'll take Southern Miss.

Last week: 12–6

Season: 162–34