The More Things Change ...

---

---

I mentioned last week that the visiting team always wins when Ohio State and Oklahoma play — and so it was again when the teams met in Columbus, Ohio, last Saturday.

The Sooners moved up to #2 in the poll with their victory and face a cupcake against Tulane in Norman this week. Tulane has only had one winning season since 2002.

Obviously it is still early in the season, and many things can happen, but it is certainly looking as though we could have two programs rich in tradition — Alabama and Oklahoma — facing each other in the national championship next January.

What a game that would be.

Idle: #11 Florida State, #17 Miami (Fla.)

Friday

• Illinois at #22 South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Illini went 3–9 last year.
  
  I doubt they can keep up with the Bulls. I pick South Florida.

Saturday

• Colorado State at #1 Alabama, 6 p.m. (Central): These schools' only previous meeting came almost exactly four years ago on Alabama's home turf. And the Crimson Tide rolled, 31–6.
  
  Alabama should win again.
• Tulane at #2 Oklahoma, 5 p.m. (Central): In the old days, the fact that this game wasn't being televised would have hardly raised any eyebrows. But we live in an age when just about every team can have its games televised somewhere.
  
  The fact that no one is picking this one up suggests to me that the expectation is for a blowout — and that is not an unreasonable expectation.
  
  I expect Oklahoma to win.
• #3 Clemson at #14 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. (Central): I'm not convinced that the defending national champs shouldn't be ranked #1, considering they have perhaps the toughest early season schedule of any of the national contenders.
  
  A trip to Louisville the week after a match with Auburn? That's more demanding than any other early schedule in college football.
  
  I think the Tigers are up to it. The pick is Clemson.
• Texas at #4 Southern Cal, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If you're a football fan, you must remember the last time these teams faced each other — in the Rose Bowl for the national championship on Jan. 4, 2006.
  
  The schools had met four times before, twice in the '50s and twice in the '60s, and the Trojans won all four. But Texas triumphed in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Southern Cal might be good enough to play for the national title this year, but Texas clearly is not. I definitely believe Southern Cal will win.
• Georgia State at #5 Penn State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I can imagine no circumstances that could produce a Georgia State win in this game.
  
  My pick is Penn State.
• Fresno State at #6 Washington, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: I hope Fresno State is being compensated handsomely for starting the season with road games against Alabama and Washington.
  
  The Bulldogs lost to Alabama, and I am quite sure that Washington will win this one.
• Air Force at #7 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: You know, it really doesn't surprise me that Michigan is a 23½–point favorite at home.
  
  Air Force has been better in recent years. It's not my father's Air Force.
  
  But it will seem like old times when Michigan wins this game.
• Army at #8 Ohio State, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Ohio State is bound to be in a bad mood after losing to OU last week.
  
  Army had a pretty good year last year, but that came on the heels of several losing seasons. It seems a little unfair for Army to have to take the punishment Ohio State would like to inflict on Oklahoma. But that is the way things go.
  
  I expect Ohio State to prevail.
• #9 Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Pittsburgh only lost by a touchdown at Oklahoma State last year — and might make it closer as the host team this year.
  
  But I expect Oklahoma State to win.
• #10 Wisconsin at Brigham Young, 2:30 p.m. (Central): Wisconsin is favored by more than two touchdowns, which sounds about right to me.
  
  I pick Wisconsin.
• #12 LSU at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. (Central): LSU has dominated this series, losing only twice since 1991.
  
  I see no reason to expect anything different this time. I pick LSU.
• Samford at #13 Georgia, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There really isn't anything to say about this one except ...
  
  I confidently pick Georgia.
• Mercer at #15 Auburn, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I refer you to the prediction immediately preceding this one.
  
  I see even less reason to pick the visitor in this one.
  
  Auburn is my pick.
• #16 Virginia Tech at East Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is a pretty good regional rivalry. The teams played for the first time in 1956, but they really started playing each other on a nearly annual basis in the late 1980s.
  
  Virginia Tech usually wins, but the games are frequently competitive, no matter who wins.
  
  In this case, I am inclined to pick Virginia Tech.
• #18 Kansas State at Vanderbilt, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: It's been more than 30 years since the only other time these schools faced each other.
  
  Times have certainly changed. Back in 1984, Vanderbilt won. But the programs have been going in opposite directions.
  
  Kansas State should win.
• #19 Stanford at San Diego State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Stanford's football players must feel wistful when they look at the current rankings — and realize they might have been in the Top 5 if they had beaten Southern Cal.
  
  It's bound to be a sore spot.
  
  Beating San Diego State won't alleviate that, but nevertheless I pick Stanford.
• SMU at #20 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These are not just old Southwest Conference rivals, they are regional rivals. Depending on traffic Dallas and Fort Worth are less than an hour apart. With a 2:30 kickoff, the Mustangs can sleep in, then board a bus and be at the stadium in plenty of time.
  
  They might as well. I don't expect much from SMU in this game.
  
  TCU should win.
• Oregon State at #21 Washington State, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Historically Washington State holds the advantage in this Pac–12 series, which is 92 games old.
  
  In recent times, though, the edge belonged to Oregon State — until Washington State won the last two meetings.
  
  The Cougars are on the upward trajectory, and I pick Washington State to win.
• #23 Tennessee at #24 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: These SEC East rivals have faced each other nearly 50 times over the years, and the Gators have won nearly 58% of the time.
  
  They have had some good games — two of their last three meetings were decided by a single point — and they have had some blowouts.
  
  This one could probably go either way, and that seems to be reflected in the point spread. The Gators are only favored by 4½ at home.
  
  In an upset special, I will take Tennessee.
• #25 UCLA at Memphis, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: These teams have met only once before — three years ago in Los Angeles. UCLA won the game by a touchdown.
  
  Like Pittsburgh in its game with Oklahoma State, I expect Memphis to keep it close.
  
  But I also expect UCLA to prevail.

Last week: 15–2

Overall: 35–5

Postponed by hurricane: 4

Last week's upset specials: 1–2

Overall upset specials: 1–4

Marching to a Title

---

---

"A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."

Lao–tzu
Chinese philosopher (604 B.C.-531 B.C.)

---

This year is the 20th anniversary of an important event in the history of the University of Arkansas' athletic program.

(I grew up in Arkansas — and I got my undergraduate degree at the U of A — so this is of interest to me. You'll just have to live with it.)

It was on this day that the Arkansas basketball team embarked on its first national title run through the NCAA Tournament.

I was living in central Oklahoma at the time, and, as luck would have it, the Razorbacks were seeded first in the Midwest Regional. The #1 seed in that regional was slated to play the #16 seed (North Carolina A&T) in Oklahoma City, roughly a 30–minute drive from where I lived.

I thought about making the drive to OKC to watch the game in person, but no tickets were available. Oklahoma State's basketball team was playing New Mexico State, and Tulsa was playing UCLA; fans and students of OSU and Tulsa had snapped up all the tickets they could as soon as they could. Local media had been warning fans for days that tickets would only be available through scalpers.

So I stayed home and watched Arkansas' tournament–opening victory over North Carolina A&T on TV.

Frankly, it was a little disappointing. I had been following the Razorbacks from afar all season, and I had been anticipating a #1 seed. It never occurred to me that they wouldn't be a top seed — although I did have my doubts when they didn't make it to the championship game of the SEC Tournament.

Having anticipated a high seed, it's probably obvious that I expected great things from that team — and the Hogs did live up to my expectations.

But their tournament draw was disappointing. I wanted to see them play — and beat — a series of the legendary college basketball programs en route to a national championship. North Carolina A&T hardly qualified, and I must admit I felt rather foolish staying up late on a Friday night to watch the game — which the Razorbacks won easily.

As things turned out, the second–round opponent on Sunday was Georgetown, not a legend on the order of a UCLA or a Kentucky or an Indiana but a latter–day legend nonetheless.

Arkansas went on to play Michigan in the regional final a week later, then faced Arizona and Duke on a Final Four weekend that I never could have imagined. The opposition did kind of live up to my fantasy, I suppose.

Arkansas' march to the national title began 20 years ago today. I wish the Razorbacks were playing for another shot at the national championship this year. For awhile this season, I thought they would be.

They didn't make the cut, though.

However, they are facing Indiana State in the NIT tonight, and that has the potential to be a pretty good consolation prize. Indiana State won their last encounter in the 1979 Elite Eight, 35 years ago yesterday. Arkansas fans have been waiting for a rematch.

That's a long time to wait for redemption. Too bad Bird and Moncrief can't play in it. Bird always said that Moncrief's defensive performance was the best anyone ever played against him.

Sooners, Irish to Face Off

---

---

Fifty–six years ago this Saturday, Oklahoma recorded its one and only football victory over Notre Dame.

So far.

That game was played in South Bend, Ind. The teams have met four times in Norman, Okla., where this Saturday's game will be played, and the Irish have won them all.

There are few — if any — other schools that can claim to have winning records against the Sooners. But Notre Dame can.

And the Irish would be undefeated against Oklahoma — if not for that game that was played 56 years ago.

(The Associated Press reports that "[n]o team has had as much success against the Sooners having played at least that many games.")

Oklahoma was in the midst of its record–setting 47–game winning streak, which ran from 1953 to 1957. The Irish were the last to beat the Sooners on Sept. 26, 1953, before the streak began, and they were the ones who ended the streak on Nov. 16, 1957 (coincidentally, the 50th anniversary of Oklahoma's admission to the Union).

In between, the Sooners hammered Notre Dame, 40–0, on Oct. 27, 1956.

That 1957 loss still irritates long–time Sooner faithful.

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly has been approaching the Oklahoma game as one of many, reports The Oklahoman.

"That's it?" asks Stephanie Kuzydym. "That's what history of breaking OU's record 47–game win streak and an 8–1 series advantage means to Notre Dame?"

Idle: #6 LSU, #25 West Virginia

Today

• #14 Clemson at Wake Forest, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have faced each other on the football field every year but two since 1933.
  
  Clemson has dominated the series, 59–17–1, and the Tigers have been especially successful at home, where they are 35–7. The Tigers also have a winning record at Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons have been tougher there. Every victory Wake Forest has against Clemson in the last 13 years has come at Wake Forest.
  
  I just don't think Wake Forest can win this one. I'll take Clemson.

Friday

• Cincinnati at #16 Louisville, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is a tighter series than you might think.
  
  And, if Cincinnati had not lost last week, it most likely would be a matchup of Top 25 teams.
  
  With its win last year, Cincinnati matched its longest winning streak against Louisville — four straight games. A win tomorrow night would be Cincinnati's fifth in a row.
  
  But I just don't think it will happen. I think Louisville will win.

Saturday

• #13 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Mississippi State has a lot of anger at Alabama that has been accumulating over the years.
  
  These teams have been playing each other since 1902, and the Crimson Tide has won more than 80% of the time.
  
  Mississippi State has some talent this year. In fact, there really isn't a lot that separates the two teams on offense. Alabama is ranked 39th in the nation; MSU is 50th.
  
  The glaring difference is on defense, where Alabama continues to be rated the best in the country. Make no mistake about it; MSU is pretty good on defense, too (#25 in the nation), but the challenge facing the Crimson Tide is not as great as the one facing the Bulldogs.
  
  Especially since the Tide is at home. I think Alabama will win this one.
• Colorado at #2 Oregon, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: You probably wouldn't think it, given these two teams' recent histories, but the all–time series between these schools is dead even, 8–8.
  
  Oddsmakers don't have any faith in Colorado, and why should they? Colorado is 1–6; Oregon is 7–0. Oregon's offense may not be as potent as it has been in recent seasons, but the Ducks are #8 in the nation in that category. Colorado isn't in the Top 100.
  
  And Oregon has the edge on defense. The Ducks haven't been as impressive on that side of the ball, but they're ranked 46th, which should be good enough. That looks really good next to Colorado's #112 ranking.
  
  What's more, Oregon is the home team — and the Ducks haven't lost at home to Colorado since 1967.
  
  Oddsmakers made Oregon a 45½–1point favorite. That's good enough for me. I'll go with Oregon.
• #3 Florida vs. #12 Georgia at Jacksonville, Fla., 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Only a few rivalry games are still played at neutral sites. Georgia–Florida is one of them.
  
  OK, Jacksonville isn't really a neutral site. It's only about an hour's drive from the Florida campus whereas it is about a four–hour drive from the Georgia campus.
  
  This will be their 78th game at a neutral site (most of them have been played in Jacksonville), and Georgia has the lead at neutral sites, 40–36–1.
  
  The teams provide an interesting contrast.
  
  Georgia, on the one hand, has been winning with its offense (#18 in the land) while Florida, ranked #100, clearly has struggled.
  
  The Gators, however, have been winning in true SEC style — on defense. Florida is tied for seventh in that category with Texas Tech. In this category, it is Georgia that has struggled — although not nearly as much as Florida has struggled on offense. The Bulldogs are #47 in defense.
  
  But this is the game known as the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." It should be a very entertaining way to spend a Saturday afternoon especially if you are a fan of Georgia — my upset special.
• #15 Texas Tech at #4 Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These schools first met in 1933, and Tech enjoys a 2–to–1 advantage in the all–time series.
  
  Statistically, Tech has an edge today, with offensive and defensive units that are both in the national Top 15.
  
  And Tech has won three–quarters of its game in Manhattan, Kansas. All that seems to spell a big win for Tech.
  
  So I'll make that my second upset special this week — Texas Tech to beat Kansas State.
• #5 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Okies are justifiably proud of that 47–game winning streak I mentioned earlier.
  
  It was quite an accomplishment then, and it should be regarded as more of one today, more than half a century after it was achieved.
  
  But attention should be on this game, not the ones that were played in 1956 or 1957.
  
  OU has the edge on offense. The Sooners are ranked 17th in the nation whereas Notre Dame is 74th. Astonishingly (at least in comparison to previous national champions and national championship contenders from Oklahoma), the Sooners have accomplished this largely on the strength of their passing game (although the running game ain't too shabby, either).
  
  Notre Dame's defense might be prepared for OU's offense; the Irish are sixth in the nation. But Oklahoma's defense is in the national Top 20, too, and should be ready for what Notre Dame has on offense.
  
  I'll take Oklahoma in a narrow decision.
• #7 Oregon State at Washington, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: If you conducted a poll of sportswriters who cover the Pac–12, they might conclude that Oregon State's ascendance is the surprise of the year.
  
  And there is a good case to be made for that. The Beavers were 3–9 last year, 5–7 the year before that.
  
  But somehow I doubt that the Huskies would be surprised that Oregon State is undefeated so far. Washington leads the all&ndsh;time series, but Oregon State has won seven of its last eight confrontations with Washington.
  
  The good news for Washington is that the Huskies' only win over the Beavers since 2003 came in Seattle two years ago. Will lightning strike twice?
  
  Well, if it turns out to be an offensive game, you'd have to favor Oregon State, although neither team has been especially strong on offense. But the Beavers, ranked 48th, have a decided advantage over the Huskies (#103).
  
  If it's a defensive game, I still have to give the edge to Oregon State — but it will be considerably smaller. OSU is 37th on defense; Washington is 55th.
  
  Oregon State can't afford to get sloppy. The Beavers have crucial games with Stanford and Oregon coming up in the next few weeks. The 3–4 Huskies would just like to get back to .500.
  
  I pick Oregon State.
• #9 Ohio State at Penn State, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Ohio State's offense — powered by Braxton Miller and the nation's 10th–best running attack — is 40th in the nation. Penn State's offense is ranked 59th.
  
  But Penn State has a deceptively dangerous defense, which is ranked 22nd in the nation.
  
  The Nittany Lions have accomplished that largely while the national spotlight was shining brightly elsewhere.
  
  When Penn State started the season at 9–2, I think most fans dismissed this as a rebuilding year for a program that was hit pretty hard by NCAA sanctions. Well, don't look now, but the Nittany Lions have won five straight.
  
  Asking them to keep that streak alive against the Buckeyes may be too much to ask, though. Ohio State narrowly leads the all–time series — a lead the Buckeyes claimed by going 7–3 in their last 10 games with the Nittany Lions.
  
  It should be entertaining, for awhile, but I really don't think the Nittany Lions have the depth to shut down the Buckeyes for an entire afternoon. I pick Ohio State to win.
• #10 Southern Cal at Arizona, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I really haven't followed the Pac–12 too closely over the years.
  
  But my assumption would be that Southern Cal has pretty much dominated every team in the conference. The Trojans always seemed to be in the Rose Bowl (which has been the postseason reward for the conference champion practically since time began) when I was growing up.
  
  I don't know if Southern Cal has dominated every team in the conference, but the Trojans have certainly dominated Arizona. Southern Cal has won more than three–quarters of their games (26–7), and the Trojans have won all but one of their contests with the Wildcats since 2001.
  
  But it might surprise you to realize that Arizona's offense currently ranks higher than Southern Cal's. Arizona is #4 in the land; Southern Cal is #47. When you remember that the Pac–12 has always been more offensively oriented than defensively oriented, that's an important factor to keep in mind.
  
  If, on the other hand, defense dominates the game, that would favor Southern Cal. The Trojans' defense is 30th in the nation; Arizona's defense, currently ranked 104th, has struggled.
  
  I think 6–1 Southern Cal, whose defense has been playing especially well in recent games, will handle Arizona.
• Duke at #11 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: For the first time in nearly two decades, Duke is bowl eligible.
  
  But the Blue Devils figure to have their hands full with the Seminoles.
  
  Florida State is ranked #2 in defense (behind only Alabama). Duke, meanwhile, ranks #68.
  
  The Duke defense will have a tough assignment trying to control Florida State's 10th–ranked offense. Duke's offense is ranked 52nd, which isn't bad but seems ill–equipped to overcome Florida State's defense.
  
  I pick Florida State.
• Tennessee at #17 South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Tennessee is an improved team. I think just about any observer of college football would agree with that.
  
  But the Volunteers also have to be a little worn out after three straight losses to ranked teams (Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama). That makes their record this year against ranked teams 0–4 (including the Vols' loss to Florida in September).
  
  And now they must travel to South Carolina to take on the 17th–ranked Gamecocks. Life is not easy when you are a member of the Southeastern Conference.
  
  If Tennessee loses this game, the Volunteers will be 3–5, with all five losses coming against Top 25 teams, but then they will embark on a four–game stretch that could not only make them bowl eligible but could land them in a reasonably decent bowl to boot.
  
  The Vols' postseason prospects would be considerably brighter if they could win this road game. But is it possible?
  
  Well, the history of the series favors Tennessee, which is 22–6–2 against South Carolina all time. But the Gamecocks have won three of the last four meetings.
  
  Tennessee's offense has been more productive than South Carolina's. But South Carolina has been much more successful on defense than Tennessee.
  
  Sounds like a split to me. In such a case, I tend to side with the better defense, which belongs to South Carolina, so that's my pick.
• Kent State at #18 Rutgers, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big East Network: These teams have only played each other twice, and Rutgers won both contests.
  
  Rutgers has the 14th–best defense in the country, which should be adequate for stopping Kent's 68th–ranked offense. Kent's defense, meanwhile, is 71st in the land, and its face–offs with Rutgers' #97 offense might prove to be fairly even.
  
  I favor Rutgers.
• Washington State at #19 Stanford, 5:15 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This will be the 63rd time these teams have met since 1936, and Stanford has a comfortable lead in the series.
  
  Stanford has also won six of the last eight meetings.
  
  Thus far, neither team has been terribly impressive on offense so, logically, the best defense will probably prevail. That would be Stanford, which is 34th in the nation in defense (Washington State isn't even in the Top 100).
  
  Accordingly, I will pick Stanford.
• #20 Michigan at Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the eighth time these teams have played since 1905.
  
  Series history isn't of much help in this case. Michigan does lead the series, which could be instructive given the fact that the Wolverines are ranked and the Cornhuskers are not.
  
  But Michigan's last visit to Nebraska (in 1911) ended in a 6–6 tie.
  
  Thus far, Nebraska has been much better on offense and Michigan has been better on defense. Which will prevail?
  
  Well, I'm inclined to think that Michigan, boasting a better defense and home field advantage, will win this game.
• #21 Boise State at Wyoming, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Wyoming has never beaten Boise State.
  
  The teams have played six times, three times on each campus, and Boise State has won each game by an average of 20 points.
  
  Wyoming is actually ranked ahead of Boise State — slightly — on offense, but neither team has been very impressive on offense.
  
  That in itself is kind of remarkable for Boise State, which has been noted in the past for its offense.
  
  But, this year, Boise is known for its defense, which ranks 20th in the nation. The 1–6 Cowboys are ranked 99th.
  
  It seems clear to me that Boise State will win.
• #22 Texas A&M at Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have only played twice — and neither game was played at Auburn.
  
  The first meeting was in 1911 in Dallas, which is not where A&M is located, but it was regarded as an Aggie home game on that occasion. I suppose the Aggies were considered the home team the second time the teams met, nearly 75 years later in the Jan. 1, 1986 Cotton Bowl.
  
  The Aggies won both games — and I'm inclined to think they will win this one, too. A&M has the ninth–best offense in the land (Auburn is 119th and has scored more than 20 points only once in seven games). Neither team is ranked very highly on defense, but A&M is ahead of Auburn. Not by much, but how far ahead do they have to be against the next–to–least productive offense in the country?
  
  I pick Texas A&M with confidence.
• #23 Ohio at Miami (Ohio), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have been playing each other annually for 50 years, and it's been a pretty competitive series.
  
  Miami (Ohio) holds the edge overall, but Ohio has won the last six. Ohio has been better — considerably better — on both sides of the ball.
  
  I don't think anything more needs to be said. I'll go with Ohio.
• #24 Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State: I'm tempted to say there is no hope for New Mexico State in this game.
  
  Louisiana Tech is 6&ndsh;2 all time against New Mexico State and has won the last five in a row. With the nation's second–ranked offense (led by QB Colby Cameron and running back Kenneth Dixon), Tech clearly outclasses NMSU, which is ranked 94th.
  
  At 1–6, New Mexico State is on track for its 10th straight losing season; meanwhile, 6–1 Tech is trying to land a prestigious bowl bid.
  
  However ...
  
  There is some hopeful news to report for NMSU fans.
  
  For one thing, New Mexico State is 2–2 when the game is played in Las Cruces, as this year's is.
  
  And, although NMSU's defense is ranked 100th in the nation, that's better than Louisiana Tech, which is 119th. I suppose you have to chalk that one up to the fact that they have played Texas A&M this season — and the twice–beaten Aggies are in the Top 10 nationally in offense.
  
  Oh, well, who am I kidding? Louisiana Tech will win this game.

Last week: 16–5

Season: 129–30

Renewing the Red River Rivalry

---

Earl Campbell ran for 126 yards and the game's only touchdown
when #5 Texas defeated #2 Oklahoma on Oct. 8, 1977.

---

This Saturday brings the 103rd meeting between Oklahoma and Texas in what is known as the Red River Rivalry.

As in most such border battles, there is a lot of pride involved. But a big portion of that pride comes from the fact that both OU and UT partisans are accustomed to having their teams in the Top 10 (if not the Top 5) when they play each other. Thus, there are national championship implications — even if neither team ends up playing for the national title.

The last time these teams met and neither team was ranked in the Top 10 was in 1999, when Texas was ranked 23rd and Oklahoma wasn't ranked at all. In fact, the 1990s was hardly the best decade in the series. Only the Oklahoma teams of 1990 and 1991 entered the game with Top 10 rankings.

It was a far cry from the 1970s and 1980s, when one or both teams routinely brought Top 10 rankings to Dallas' Cotton Bowl.

No matter what the rankings were, though, the OU–Texas game always seemed (to me) to be about two main things — ground games and defenses.

Having grown up in Arkansas and having graduated from the University of Arkansas, I have no fondness for the Texas Longhorns. Texas was Arkansas' greatest rival until the Razorbacks left the Southwest Conference in the early 1990s. It still isn't easy for me to go through an entire football season without an Arkansas–Texas football game.

For me, LSU and Alabama will always be surrogates for the real thing.

Actually, I have no real fondness for the Oklahoma Sooners, either, but the Razorbacks have seldom played Oklahoma. In fact, the teams have played each other only three times in my lifetime.

(Also, in the interest of full disclosure, I did work at OU as a journalism professor in the 1990s — and during that time, I did pull for the Sooners. But I stopped doing that when I left the campus.)

With Texas, it was different. The Longhorns played Arkansas every year. They were in the same conference. And Texas usually beat Arkansas every year. There were a few exceptions when I was growing up, but, for the most part, Texas prevailed.

I didn't pay much attention to the Texas–Oklahoma game most of the time. More often than not, both were undefeated — and they usually faced each other the week before Arkansas played Texas. I remember hoping that Texas and Oklahoma would beat each other senseless and fight to a draw (there was no overtime in college football in those days).

My hope was that Texas would limp into the game with Arkansas and, thus, be vulnerable. There were several occasions when Oklahoma hammered Texas, but it never really worked out that the Longhorns were so devastated that they could dispose of the Razorbacks.

Probably the OU–Texas game that made the greatest impression on me was the one played 35 years ago — when the series was known as the Red River Shootout. Behind a third–string quarterback named Randy McEachern and a powerful running back named Earl Campbell (who wound up winning the Heisman Trophy that year), fifth–ranked Texas defeated second–ranked Oklahoma, 13–6.

I hoped against hope that the Longhorns and their fans had exhausted themselves in the Cotton Bowl that October, but no such luck. Texas came to Fayetteville the following week and beat the Razorbacks, 13–9.

George Schroeder writes in USA Today that the series is losing its luster. But I don't agree. It still shines in these parts.

The OU–Texas football game, set against the backdrop of the Texas State Fair, is one of the great spectacles in college sports. Even if it doesn't have the dramatic twists and turns of that 1977 game, it is almost always worth watching.

Idle: #2 Oregon, #14 Georgia, #16 Clemson

Saturday

• #1 Alabama at Missouri, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Missouri actually leads this series, but there's a catch. These teams haven't played each other in 34 years.
  
  Missouri won the first two meetings — in the 1968 Gator Bowl (35–10) and in Birmingham, Ala., in 1975 (20–7) — but Alabama won the only encounter where today's game will be played, Columbia, Mo., in 1978.
  
  If there is little to be learned from the past, perhaps the numbers from the present can give us some clues.
  
  For instance, Alabama has the top–rated defense in the nation; Missouri's defense is a respectable #26. I'm inclined to think that Alabama will have an easier time with Missouri's offense (ranked 96th) than Missouri will have with Alabama's offense (68th).
  
  What's more, unbeaten Alabama is coming off a bye week while Missouri is still looking for its first SEC win. I pick Alabama.
• #3 South Carolina at #9 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 20th time these teams have played each other, and South Carolina has won only twice — in 1994 and in the very first meeting in 1930.
  
  That should provide plenty of incentive for the Gamecocks, and they're going to need it. LSU's third–ranked defense is likely to be a problem for South Carolina's offense (#63 in the nation), but LSU's 76th–rated offense isn't likely to be much more successful against South Carolina's #11 defense.
  
  I'll go with the home team — LSU.
• #4 Florida at Vanderbilt, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have been playing each other regularly since the end of World War II, annually since 1992, and Florida has completely dominated the series.
  
  The Gators have compiled a 34–9–2 record against Vanderbilt, and they will be looking for their 22nd consecutive win over the Commodores today.
  
  I think they'll get it. Florida has the 12th–ranked defense in the nation (Vandy's defense is ranked 33rd). The offenses are similar — Florida's is ranked 88th, Vanderbilt's is 90th.
  
  But it's worth noting that the unbeaten Gators have already played Tennessee and LSU. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, played South Carolina tough on opening day but got blown out by Georgia.
  
  I feel confident in picking Florida to win.
• #5 West Virginia at Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: West Virginia, with Geno Smith at quarterback, has the nation's third–ranked offense.
  
  Texas Tech's offense isn't too shabby, either, holding down the 16th spot in the national rankings.
  
  Texas Tech, however, has the #2 defense in the land, which would suggest that West Virginia's offense might have some trouble in Lubbock — except for a couple of things to keep in mind — 1) Oklahoma's offense is ranked 28th, pretty good, not perfect but it still slapped Tech around last week, and 2) West Virginia's defense is currently ranked #102, but the Mountaineers have had to fend off Texas and Baylor in the last couple of weeks, obstacles the Red Raiders have yet to face.
  
  The history of the series is of no help, either. The only other time these teams faced each other was in the Jan. 1, 1938 Sun Bowl (won by West Virginia, 7–6).
  
  It should be an interesting game, but I choose West Virginia to keep its Cinderella season going for another week.
• #6 Kansas State at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: After knocking off TCU last weekend, Iowa State has the challenge of facing a Top 10 team this week.
  
  Iowa State holds the all–time edge in the series, but Kansas State has won five of the last six encounters — and, frankly, figures to make it six of the last seven.
  
  In the 95 games these teams have played, though, only two others were played on Oct. 13 (in 1951 and 1979), and Iowa State won both. I suppose that is as good a reason as any to be hopeful that Iowa State will prevail.
  
  The numbers from the current season don't offer much hope for the Cyclones. Kansas State's offense is ranked #41 in the nation (Iowa State's is 91st), although the Wildcats' defense is #44 (compared to Iowa State's 28th–ranked defense).
  
  History, however, suggests that Iowa State can be dangerous. TCU, of course, was the latest to learn that, losing to Iowa State last week and tumbling out of the Top 25. Last year, Oklahoma State stumbled in the same place where TCU did this year — and where Kansas State is playing today.
  
  I choose Kansas State.
• #17 Stanford at #7 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: The first time these teams played, it was in the Rose Bowl, Knute Rockne was the coach of the Irish and Calvin Coolidge had just won a full term on his own after completing what remained of Warren Harding's term after his death.
  
  This will be the teams' 27th game, and, if the Irish win, they will have won exactly two–thirds of their encounters. But Stanford has won the last three in a row — and will be hoping to make it four straight.
  
  Can the Cardinal do it?
  
  I don't think so. Notre Dame has a higher ranked offense and defense — and the home field advantage. I don't think the Cardinal will be able to overcome that. Clearly — well, I presume it's clear — I choose Notre Dame.
• #8 Ohio State at Indiana, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This series is just about as lopsided as it gets.
  
  Ohio State has won 68 of 81 meetings (that's 86%) and 24 of 27 games played at Indiana (that's more than 90%).
  
  At this point in the season, Indiana has the nation's #26 offense (compared to Ohio State at #44). And the Hoosiers have been scoring a lot, even as they have taken three consecutive losses following a 2–0 start.
  
  But Indiana has the 94th–ranked defense — thanks in large part to giving up 116 points in the last three games.
  
  The 6–0 Buckeyes, on the other hand, had held all their opponents below 30 points until last week's 63–38 victory over Nebraska.
  
  Is there any chance Indiana can win? I don't think so. I pick Ohio State.
• #10 Oregon State at Brigham Young, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Not nearly as productive offensively as its in–state rival, Oregon State does have a better defense than Oregon (but not by much).
  
  BYU, however, brings the fifth–ranked defense, which should be able to handle OSU's 32nd–ranked offense. QB Sean Mannion leads the Beavers.
  
  Once known for its prolific quarterbacks, BYU's offense now ranks #72, and that should be even easier for Oregon State's defense to deal with, even though the Beavers are ranked #39.
  
  I'm just not sold on the Beavers. Maybe I will be after their game with the Cougars. But they've only played two games at BYU — and the last one was in 1986 — so there really isn't much recent history to study.
  
  I'm going to go with Brigham Young and its defense.
• #11 USC at Washington, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: The good news in this game is that the Huskies are at home.
  
  When they've had to play the Trojans in Los Angeles, they've lost nearly three–quarters of the time. But in Washington, the Huskies and Trojans are almost even. USC leads, 18–17–4.
  
  And the Huskies won the last time they played the Trojans in Washington — but that victory snapped a three–game winning streak for the visitors.
  
  History can tell you a lot about what to expect — but it isn't infallible. For that, it helps to know how the teams have been performing to date.
  
  And Southern Cal has just been better on both sides of the ball than Washington. I have to go with USC.
• Boston College at #12 Florida State, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: When I was growing up, the cliche was that defense wins championships.
  
  In recent years, we've seen some exceptions to that rule — but, for the most part, it still seems to hold true.
  
  And Florida State has the nation's #4 defense — so far. If it plays up to expectations, Florida State should have little trouble with Boston College's 52nd–ranked offense.
  
  And I would expect the Seminoles' 14th–ranked offense (led by the nation's eighth–ranked QB, E.J. Manuel) to manhandle Boston College's defense, which hasn't even been good enough to rank in the Top 100.
  
  All this — and the home field, too. Give me Florida State.
• #15 Texas vs. #13 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: When I was growing up, this series was never really known as an aerial circus.
  
  But, this year, Texas bring the #3 quarterback in the country, David Ash, who is completing more than 75% of his passes.
  
  The series really was known more for its punishing ground attacks — in that regard, OU has Damien Williams, who is averaging nearly eight yards per carry — and great defenses — OU's is 17th in the nation so far.
  
  But if the Sooners have the advantage on defense — and they do (Texas is ranked 74th) — the Longhorns have the edge (but, really, only slightly) on offense. Texas is 25th in that category; Oklahoma is 28th.
  
  In large part, I guess it could be said that Texas' numbers have been disproportionately affected by the Longhorns' recent schedule. They played Oklahoma State and West Virginia in the last two weeks, two of the best offenses in the country; Oklahoma will play those teams back to back in November.
  
  But the Sooners have faced Kansas State and Texas Tech in their last two games — and held both under 25 points.
  
  I think defense will prevail, and Oklahoma will beat Texas for the third straight time.
• #18 Louisville at Pittsburgh, 10 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: I suppose one could be forgiven for wondering what is on the line in this game.
  
  Pittsburgh is 2–3 and winless in Big East play. Louisville is 5–0 and coming off a bye week.
  
  Well, Louisville might have something to prove, even against the likes of Pitt. Hold on to your hats, but Pittsburgh is ranked ahead of Louisville in both offense and defense.
  
  OK, the difference between them on defense is almost nonexistent — Pitt is 22nd, Louisville is 24th. It's much greater on offense, where Pittsburgh (led by QB Tino Sunseri) is ranked 31st and Louisville (led by QB Teddy Bridgewater and halfback Senorise Perry) is 70th.
  
  It's a streaky series. Louisville has lost the last four in a row, but, if the Cardinals can snap that skid, they will knot the series at 8–8.
  
  I think Louisville will do it.
• Tennessee at #19 Mississippi State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: In the last 25 years, these teams have played 10 times — and Tennessee has won nine of those games.
  
  But Mississippi State's last victory over Tennessee — in 1994 — came in Starkville, where today's game will be played.
  
  Perhaps that is a good omen. Some of the numbers from this season sure aren't. For example, Tennessee has a higher–ranked offense (#17 in the nation compared to #64), behind QB Tyler Bray and halfback Rajion Neal. The 3–2 Volunteers have scored 197 points. The Bulldogs do have QB Tyler Russell but little else.
  
  However, in the proud tradition of SEC champions, Mississippi State is 25th in defense (and trails four conference rivals in that category) whereas Tennessee languishes in 87th place.
  
  It can be argued that Tennessee has faced tougher competition than Mississippi State, but that will change. The Bulldogs will face Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU in succession in late October–early November.
  
  At that point, we will find out just what kind of defense the Bulldogs have. For now, I think it will be enough to win for the sixth time this season.
  
  I'll go with Mississippi State.
• Syracuse at #20 Rutgers, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East Network: This series predates America's entry into World War I and has been played annually since 1980.
  
  Syracuse has won more than 70% of the games that have been played between the two schools, but most of those games were played when Syracuse had a much better program than Syracuse.
  
  But times have changed. Since 2005, Rutgers has won five of seven meetings. Even better for Rutgers is the fact that the Scarlet Knights have been more successful at home than on the road against Syracuse.
  
  Of course, it's all relative. Rutgers has won nearly 30% of its home games against Syracuse and about 29% of the road games (Syracuse won two encounters played in New York during World War I).
  
  Rutgers has been enjoying much more success on the gridiron since 2005 than it did in the preceding years — and, off to a 5–0 start, the Scarlet Knights may well be on their way to their best season ever. If they can get five more wins, they will be in double–digit victory territory for only the third time in school history.
  
  Syracuse has the edge in offense, ranked #37 compared to Rutgers' #89. But that seems like a contradiction. Rutgers has a higher–rated passer (Gary Nova) than Syracuse (Ryan Nassib). And Rutgers' halfback (Jawan Jamison) is 13th in the country.
  
  Rutgers has been winning mostly on the strength of its 15th–ranked defense (Syracuse is ranked #40). And, if you have been reading me for awhile, you know that I tend to favor a good defense.
  
  Accordingly, I will take Rutgers — by about 10 points.
• Fordham at #21 Cincinnati, 1 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: I seldom gamble on anything, but I would be willing to bet that this is the first time in a long time — if ever — that a Fordham game has been televised.
  
  Even if it is online.
  
  It&apsos;s a first, as far as I can see. Certainly, it appears to be the first time these teams have faced each other in my lifetime.
  
  And it is a formidable challenge for Fordham. Cincinnati has the 28th–ranked offense in the land. QB Munchie Legaux has completed only 55% of his passes, but he's thrown three times as many touchdowns as interceptions, and halfback George Winn is contributing more than 100 yards per game on the ground.
  
  Cincinnati's defense has been good but not spectacular, holding the 40th ranking nationally.
  
  But, really, how good does it have to be to top Fordham? I think Cincinnati will win easily.
• #22 Texas A&M at #23 Louisiana Tech, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: In the overall rankings, A&M is one slot ahead of Louisiana Tech.
  
  But in total offense, Tech is one spot ahead of A&M. They are 11th and 12th, respectively. Tech has scored more than 50 points against all but one of its opponents so far.
  
  The undefeated Bulldogs have been playing the likes of Houston and Rice, though, and their closest contest was their game with Virginia. The Aggies have played Florida and Arkansas.
  
  The Aggies bring a higher—ranked defense (#45) into the game than Tech (#119) so I'm inclined to give the advantage to Texas A&M.
• Fresno State at #24 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBCSN: This hassn't been an extensive (or regular) series — the teams will be meeting for the 15th time since 1977 — but Boise State has dominated, especially at home.
  
  In fact, Fresno State won the first time the Bulldogs traveled to Boise, but the Broncos have won the last five in a row.
  
  In the past, it has seemed that teams tended to win in the Mountain West Conference by scoring — a lot. If that still holds true, the edge should belong to Fresno State, currently ranked #20 and led by QB Derek Carr and halfback Robbie Rouse (Boise State is ranked 85th, even though QB Joe Southwick has completed nearly 65% of his passes).
  
  Both teams are pretty good on defense. Boise has a slim edge in that category; the Broncos are 27th in the nation, the Bulldogs are 31st.
  The 4–1 Broncos have bounced back with four straight wins since losing to Michigan State in their opener. Of their five opponents, only New Mexico has scored more than 17 points on the Broncos.
  
  The 4–2 Bulldogs surrendered 42 points in their loss to second–ranked Oregon and gave up 40 points in their win over San Diego State., but three of their foes have been held to two touchdowns or less.
  
  I'm tempted to take Fresno State, but — perhaps based only on reputation — I'm taking the home team, Boise State.
• Illinois at #25 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These Big Ten rivals don't always play each other — but, when they do, Michigan usually wins.
  
  They've played 93 times since 1898, and Michigan has won about three–fourths of the time, whether the games has been played in Champaign or Ann Arbor.
  
  And, frequently (but not always), Illinois wins when it faces a Michigan team that has been having an off year.
  
  This Michigan team isn't really having an off year. Sure, the Wolverines are 3–2, but those losses have been to #1 Alabama and #7 Notre Dame. The Illini, meanwhile, are staggering along at 2–4.
  
  In spite of the presence of Denard Robinson in the lineup, Michigan is ranked #73 in offense, but that looks positively gaudy compared to Illinois' #101 ranking.
  
  On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan is currently ranked #19. Illinois isn't bad at #37, but everything really points to a (low scoring) Michigan victory.

Last week: 11–7

Season: 97–23

Closing the Deal

---

---

"They can quit playing now. They have played the perfect game."

Dave Kindred
Louisville Courier–Journal

---

It's different with every Heisman Trophy winner.

Sometimes, guys go into seasons as the clear favorites to win it — and they don't get hurt and they don't have more than one or two really bad games and, when they receive the Heisman in December, it seems to have been preordained.

Other times, Heismans are won primarily on the basis of one or two explosive performances — whether those performances came in the Heisman–winning season or not, whether they were representative of the player's skills or not.

Sometimes you're not so sure.

Nebraska's Johnny Rodgers, it always seemed to me, may have secured the next season's Heisman on this day 40 years ago.

The 1971 Heisman was given to Auburn senior Pat Sullivan, an Academic All–American who graduated with a degree in business administration — in addition to setting all kinds of records at the quarterback position.

That decision had already been made by this time in 1971 — even though Rodgers, with an electrifying performance, had not yet sparked the #1 Cornhuskers to a victory of legendary proportions over #2 Oklahoma and Sullivan's Tigers had not yet lost to Alabama by the convincing score of 31–7 after the announcement had been made.

Sullivan's senior status — and academic credentials — were just enough to edge out Cornell's Ed Marinaro, the Ivy League's first legitimate Heisman contender in years.

And if anyone even mentioned giving Rodgers the trophy in 1971, he was probably talked out of it rather quickly — perhaps because Sullivan would have no other opportunities to win the Heisman and Rodgers would, perhaps because Rodgers was a convicted felon (and no convicted felon had won the Heisman before).

It wasn't because no one knew who Rodgers was.

He had been making contributions to the team's success all season — but Nebraska's Heisman contender in 1971 was quarterback Jerry Tagge (and he finished seventh). There were also a couple of OU players who had support in the Heisman balloting — halfback Greg Pruitt, who finished a distant third, and quarterback Jack Mildren, who finished sixth.

Anyway, what happened 40 years ago today had no influence on the Heisman balloting. In a procedure that differs dramatically from the one with which modern football fans are familiar, the winner was announced the day before Nebraska and Oklahoma played each other, and the trophy was presented to Sullivan nine days later.

And history tells us that Rodgers' Cornhuskers beat the second–ranked Sooners that day in a game that, 40 years later, folks who are old enough to remember it — and even folks who hadn't been born yet when the game was played — speak of it in hushed tones.

But Rodgers' early punt return was widely seen as the decisive play on that Thanksgiving afternoon, and it is hard for me to believe that Rodgers did not think, when he left the field that day, that he had just closed the deal on the next season's Heisman Trophy.

BCS Chaos

---

---

I have made no secret of my distaste for the so–called Bowl Championship Series — or BCS — that is supposed to match the two best college football teams in a national championship game at season's end, even though neither team must earn its spot in a playoff system.

Unless one or both must play in a conference championship game.

But no champions from other conferences must be conquered to reach the national title game. Only the pollsters and computers must be persuaded of the teams' worthiness — and they need not be familiar with the teams they choose.

In fact, there probably are coaches who vote in their poll or sports writers who vote in their poll who have had little, if any, exposure to the teams that ultimately are anointed to play for all the marbles.

That is my greatest gripe about the BCS system, I suppose.

Let's assume, if only for a minute, that LSU wins the SEC championship game against Georgia. A case can be made that the participants in that game earned their berths on the field — and, since the championship game will be played on a day when there will be very few other college football games, it is logical to assume that most, if not all, of the coaches who participate in their poll and the sports writers who participate in their poll will see the game.

But week in and week out, how many coaches do you suppose take time out from their own game preparation responsibilities to familiarize themselves with three or four dozen college teams by watching tape of and/or reading articles about them?

For that matter, how many sports writers take time from their coverage of local or regional programs to view the tapes and read the articles relating to those same three or four dozen college teams from around the country?

Probably few in either instance.

But, like lemmings allegedly committing mass suicide when they migrate, they follow the group. What may have begun as the perception of a few becomes a self–fulfilling prophecy.

Unless fate intervenes.

Fate intervened this weekend.

LSU, the top–ranked team in the nation, almost surely will remain where it was when the weekend began.

But #2 Oklahoma State as certainly will drop after its double–overtime loss to Iowa State on Friday night — a development that was doubly shocking. The Cowboys were expected to whip the Cyclones, even before the news reached the team that the OSU women's basketball coach and one of his assistants were killed in an airplane crash in central Arkansas.

News of the tragedy was expected to serve as even more motivation for the Cowboys — but it didn't.

They were stunned, I guess — or maybe they were simply lethargic. Their big showdown with Oklahoma is two weeks away — and the Cowboys have next week off. How could 10–0 Oklahoma State, with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State, get excited about playing 5–4 Iowa State?

Whatever it was, the Cowboys lost the game.

Folks were still absorbing that news when a couple of other bombshells were dropped on the Top 10.

First, the other Oklahoma school went down in spectacular fashion. The once–beaten Sooners faced Baylor University, a team that had never beaten Oklahoma in 19 previous attempts. In fact, it had been more than a decade since Baylor even came within two touchdowns of OU.

But, on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, the Bears beat the fifth–ranked Sooners — pretty convincingly, too.

And, as that equally shocking development was playing out in the heart of Texas, there was even more.

Fourth–ranked Oregon was losing its second game of the season. The Ducks' first defeat was way back at the beginning of the season in a Labor Day weekend clash with LSU. Oregon had been craving a rematch in the national championship game, but the loss to 18th–ranked Southern California undoubtedly put an end to any such hopes.

It can be argued, for that matter, that Oklahoma is also out of the national championship conversation. And, although they have only one loss, that one loss — to a six–win team — is probably too devastating for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to overcome.

Well, I've been saying it would take a state of utter chaos to build momentum for the implementation of a playoff system — and we may be witnessing the start of such a state.

But I want it to go beyond what has happened this weekend.

On Friday, my alma mater, the University of Arkansas (ranked sixth when the weekend began and certain to move up in the rankings later today following a 44–17 victory over Mississippi State yesterday) will travel to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Baton Rouge can be a scary place for most football teams — but not necessarily for Arkansas.

Sure, the Razorbacks are 1–4 in Baton Rouge since 2001, but all but one of those games were decided by three points or less. And the Razorbacks have won three of their last four games against the Tigers.

Another victory is not out of the question — and it could propel the Razorbacks into the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Especially if Auburn upends currently second–ranked Alabama in Saturday's Iron Bowl. If you're scoffing at that notion, let me remind you that Alabama–Auburn is a rivalry of long standing — and rivalries like that operate in spheres of their own.

There are other things that could happen in other games to change the dynamics of the BCS and make more college football fans think about the system that currently chooses the national champion and how it compares to a legitimate playoff system.

Undoubtedly, those things will be evident later today when the latest polls come out and then tonight when the latest BCS standings are released.

In the end, LSU may well be the only unbeaten team standing and may be the unquestionable choice to be national champion.

But I'm still pulling for chaos, and if what happened on Friday and Saturday is the beginning of revolutionary chaos, then all I can say is ...

Let the revolution begin.

But, for now, I am pleased.

BCS Projections Coming Too Early

---

---

As a persistent critic of the BCS — as well as constant advocate of an NCAA football playoff system — I can't argue with Tommy Hicks of the Mobile (Ala.) Press–Register.

If one can assume that the top four in the initial BCS rankings is a reliable projection for the rest of the season, then, as Hicks observes, the BCS will, indeed, provide the equivalent of a playoff — with the help of the existing regular–season schedule.

LSU and Alabama are currently ranked #1 and #2, respectively. They will meet in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 5. The winner will then be expected to run the table and win the SEC championship game.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are ranked #3 and #4, respectively. They will meet in Stillwater on Dec. 3. For the winner of that game, there will be nothing else until its postseason game — no championship game in the Big 12 this year — but the obvious assumption will be that, if the winner of the game in Stillwater is unblemished, that team will be playing for the national title.

Thus, those two games are shaping up to be the playoff games that will give us the national finalists — but all that discounts the possibility of another team tripping them up along the way.

Or someone else catching fire and moving up in the rankings — Wisconsin, perhaps, or Stanford — or maybe even Boise State. Who knows?

It's still October. As those two games suggest — and, remember, they are only two games with many, many others still to be played — a lot can happen.

I worked with sports writers for years, and I know that they love to speculate. It's sort of an occupational hazard during football season.

Sports journalists don't have as much time for speculation between games in other sports, but football season, with its once–a–week games, has a lot of time to kill — and a lot of space to fill — for sports writers.

I guess the temptation to idly speculate — i.e., Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, while admitting it was "way premature and patently ridiculous," nevertheless proceeded recently to assess the 6–0 Green Bay Packers' chances of running the table — is irresistible for most writers.

And football season is the very definition of temptation.

But October really is too early to be anticipating who will be playing for the national title in January.

Idle: #14 South Carolina, #18 Michigan, #24 Arizona State, #24 Georgia

Friday

• #11 West Virginia at Syracuse, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Syracuse snapped an eight–game losing streak to West Virginia last year.
  
  That was the first time Syracuse had won at West Virginia since 2000. Now the challenge facing the Orange is to beat West Virginia at Syracuse for the first time since 1993.
  
  Syracuse might make a good run for it, but, in the end, I expect West Virginia to win by a touchdown.

Saturday

• #19 Auburn at #1 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Unless something really unexpected happens, defending national champion Auburn will not be playing for another national title in January.
  
  But the twice–beaten Tigers still have a shot at playing in the SEC championship game — or at least snaring a share of the SEC West crown.
  
  In order to do that, Auburn must beat LSU in Baton Rouge on Saturday and then beat Alabama on Nov. 26. That's a tall order for anyone, but, historically speaking, Auburn might be up to the task — at least when it comes to competing with LSU.
  
  Since 1991, Auburn is 10–9 against LSU, but Auburn has lost its last five in Baton Rouge.
  
  Auburn has been a different team on LSU's turf. And, without Cam Newton, Auburn has been a different team than it was last year. I predict that LSU will prevail by two touchdowns.


• Tennessee at #2 Alabama, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Everyone knows about Alabama's in–state rivalry with Auburn, but I have heard that the legendary Bear Bryant cared more about beating Tennessee.
  
  The Alabama–Tennessee game has long been known as "the third Saturday in October" in recognition of the date when the game was traditionally played, but it has only been played on the third Saturday in October a handful of times in recent years.
  
  Nor will it be played on the third Saturday in October this year.
  
  Anyway, Alabama has won the last four games between the school and holds a 48–38–7 overall series advantage. The Vols haven't won in Tuscaloosa since 2003.
  
  Since 2008, Alabama is 26–1 at home — and that lone loss was Auburn's fabled comeback in last year's Iron Bowl.
  
  There is simply no way Tennessee will be competitive in this game. I expect Alabama to win by about 30 points.


• Texas Tech at #3 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: For the last seven years, the host team has won this game.
  
  And Oklahoma has won its last seven home games against Texas Tech.
  
  I guess that dovetails nicely with those who contend the Sooners will remain unbeaten until they meet their in–state rivals from Oklahoma State on the first Saturday in December.
  
  And the recent history of the series does say that the home team's victories tend to be lopsided. Last year, OU beat Tech in Norman, 45–7. In 2008, it was even more lopsided — 65–21.
  
  So should the Red Raiders even bother to show up to play the game? Well, they might make it competitive for the first half, but, in the end, I expect Oklahoma to win by three touchdowns.


• #4 Wisconsin at #15 Michigan State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Some people are predicting that Wisconsin will be one of the two teams playing for the national title in January, and that's a tough one to counter.
  
  We know, for example, that either Alabama or LSU (possibly both) will have at least one loss by the time the bowl season begins. It is inevitable. The teams will face each other on the first Saturday in November, and college football did away with ties more than a decade ago. Even if they have to play a dozen overtime periods, someone will win that game.
  
  Oklahoma, too, could lose a game. The Sooners play Texas Tech this weekend and still must face Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State before the season ends. There's no championship game in the Big 12 this year, but, if the Sooners can negotiate that obstacle course, they might deserve a spot in the national championship game.
  
  College football always has those hidden time bombs, ticking away, waiting for an encounter with an overconfident team. On any given Saturday ...
  
  Wisconsin won't be out of the woods if the Badgers beat the Spartans, but they will be getting closer to the clearing. They still have to play Ohio State, Illinois and Penn State — and then there will be the inaugural Big Ten title game, which might be a rematch with these Spartans.
  
  If defense truly does win championships, this game will be a good test for that premise. Both teams are in the Top 10 nationally in defense — MSU is #1, Wisconsin is #7. Wisconsin's defense may not be tested too much (the Spartans rank 66th in total offense), but Michigan State's might have its hands full with Wisconsin's eighth–ranked offense, led by the nation's #1 passer, Russell Wilson, and runner Montee Ball (19th in rushing, 34th in all–purpose yards).
  
  I think it will be close ... and low scoring. The Badgers have more power on offense so I'll take Wisconsin by four points.


• Air Force at #5 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: This might be the most exciting game of the weekend — at least, if you're a Boise State fan.
  
  Both teams have potent offenses so the game seems likely to hinge on the defenses. If that is, indeed, how it turns out, the odds favor Boise's 12th–ranked defense over Air Force's dismal 106th–ranked unit.
  
  Give me Boise State.


• #6 Oklahoma State at Missouri: Since 1979, OSU has beaten Missouri about three–fifths of the time. And the Cowboys have won their last two encounters with the Tigers.
  
  But what about 2011?
  
  Well, while Oklahoma State currently has the nation's second–ranked offense, Missouri's offense is a respectable 13th in the nation. And Missouri's defense (currently 30th in the country) has outshone the Cowboys' defense (ranked 103rd).
  
  In what will certainly be considered an upset, I'll take Missouri to defeat previously unbeaten Oklahoma State — and mess up that tidy BCS playoff arrangement of which Hicks wrote.


• #22 Washington at #7 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Not too long ago, Washington could compete with Stanford. The Huskies even managed to win their games on a regular basis.
  
  But that was then — before Andrew Luck came along.
  
  Frankly, I just don't see how Washington can hope to stop Luck. The Huskies are 106th in total defense, and Luck is third in the nation in passing. Give me Stanford by two touchdowns.


• North Carolina at #8 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: It's been 10 years since North Carolina won at Clemson — and winning there wasn't a familiar experience before that, either.
  
  The teams are about even on defense, but Clemson, with Sammy Watkins (10th in all–purpose yardage) and Tajh Boyd (13th in passing), are light years ahead of the Tar Heels in offense. I'll take Clemson.


• #9 Oregon at Colorado, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: It's really hard to have much regard for Colorado's football program these days.
  
  The 1–6 Buffs are 64th in total defense. How can they expect to stop Oregon's fifth–rated total offense?
  
  Colorado's defense is better than its offense, though. The Buffs are 92nd in the nation in that category. How can they possibly expect to score with an offensive unit like that?
  
  I don't think they can. I'll take Oregon by 20.


• #10 Arkansas at Ole Miss, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: In 1981, more than 10 years before they became conference rivals, Arkansas and Ole Miss revived a series that had been dormant since the 1969 Sugar Bowl — and hadn't been part of the regular–season schedule in a couple of decades.
  
  At one time, though, it was one of the most heated rivalries in the South, if not in college football, and success in the series tended to come in waves.
  
  Since 1981, Arkansas has the edge, 18–11–1. From 1952–1961, Ole Miss was 7–3 against Arkansas, and Arkansas won about two–thirds of the games played in the first half of the century.
  
  The Ole Miss football program has been something of a train wreck lately. Its offense is one of the worst in the country (117th); its defense is better but not by much (86th). I'll take Arkansas by three touchdowns.


• #12 Kansas State at Kansas, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: Most people don't know it — mostly, I suppose, because neither of these schools is known for its football program — but this rivalry is the fourth–longest uninterrupted series in college football history.
  
  The winner of the football game — which, for the last two years, has been KSU — is awarded the Governor's Cup, and the outcome of the football game is factored in with the results of the other athletic contests between the two schools to decide the annual winner of the "Sunflower Showdown."
  
  So, while this game usually means next to nothing to people outside Kansas, it appears to have a great deal of meaning to people within that state.
  
  Emotion aside, Kansas gave Oklahoma a real run for it last weekend, but I don't see the Jayhawks being able to sustain that against the Wildcats. I pick Kansas State to win by 12 points.


• #13 Nebraska at Minnesota, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In the first half of the 20th century, these teams used to play just about every year. In recent years, not so much.
  
  Now that they compete in the same conference, I expect them to play a bit more regularly.
  
  This will be the first time they have met on the gridiron since 1990, when a mediocre Minnesota team traveled to Nebraska — and lost, 56–0.
  
  The Gophers hosted the Cornhuskers in 1989 — and got shut out that time, too, 48–0.
  
  Minnesota has scored against Nebraska — in 1984, when Minnesota went to Lincoln and lost, 38–7. The year before that, Gophers hosted Nebraska and scored 13 points. But the Cornhuskers, who were en route to their Orange Bowl game with Miami, scored 84 points.
  
  Minnesota lost 10 more games to the Cornhuskers in the 1960s and early 1970s. In fact, unless I have overlooked something, Minnesota hasn't beaten Nebraska since Sept. 24, 1960.
  
  Still, they hold the series lead, 29–20–2, thanks primarily to having won eight of the first 10 games in the early part of the 20th century.
  
  And, as Ben Welter of the Minneapolis Star Tribune observes, Saturday will be the 100th anniversary of Minnesota's 21–3 triumph over Nebraska — which was played in Minnesota, by the way.
  
  Is that a good omen? Probably not. Nebraska (5–1) is much better than Minnesota (1–5) and should win by 25.


• Boston College at #16 Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. (Central) on RSN: Since 1996, Boston College has won only four of 15 games with Virginia Tech (including a loss in the 2007 ACC title game).
  
  But BC has won two of the last four times it has played at Virginia Tech.
  
  Does that mean Boston College can win this time? Well, it could — but I wouldn't bet on it. Virginia Tech (6–1) is much better on both sides of the ball than Boston College (1–5) and should prove it handily.


• #17 Texas A&M at Iowa State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: With the Aggies headed for the Southeastern Conference next year, this will be the ninth and final meeting of these teams as Big 12 rivals.
  
  A&M has only lost one of those encounters, but that was in College Station. The Aggies are 4–0 in Ames.
  
  With games against Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas State coming up — and a spotless record at Iowa State — the Aggies could be forgiven for overlooking the 3–3 Cyclones. But that would be a mistake.
  
  Don't get me wrong. I think Texas A&M will remain focused and take care of business.


• #20 Georgia Tech at Miami (Fla.), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As conference rivals, Georgia Tech holds a 4–3 lead in its series with Miami.
  
  When you count the Y2K New Year's Day Gator Bowl between the schools, the series is deadlocked, 4–4.
  
  Before that, you have to go back to the Eisenhower administration to find the last time the teams played.
  
  This is very much a 21st century series. Georgia Tech has been tested several times and, while coming off a loss, seems to have enough in its arsenal to handle Miami. I'll take Georgia Tech by a field goal.


• Marshall at #21 Houston. 3:30 p.m. (Central) on CSS: It almost seems like old times, like when Andre Ware was running the Run 'N' Shoot. The Houston Cougars have the nation's top–ranked offense.
  
  When people speak of college quarterbacks these days, the conversation inevitably winds up being about Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. But Houston's Case Keenum is sixth in the nation, has a higher completion percentage than Luck and has accounted for more passing yardage than either.
  
  But Keenum is overlooked — primarily, I suppose, because he doesn't play in a major conference, and, therefore, has racked up his stats against less impressive competition.
  
  In recent years, these teams have met twice as conference rivals.
  
  Each team has held serve at home, and I think Houston will keep that streak alive by a two–touchdown margin.


• #23 Illinois at Purdue, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Now, I suppose, we will find out if Illinois is as good as its record.
  
  The Illini, of course, are coming off their first defeat of the season. I know it was disappointing, but, hey, they lost to Ohio State. They've only beaten the Buckeyes once since 2002.
  
  Since 1985, Illinois and Purdue have played 20 times, and each has won 10. Illinois was more successful against Purdue in the late 20th century — at least when the teams have played in Indiana. Purdue has beaten Illinois the last three times the Boilermakers have hosted the Illini.
  
  This looks like a "gotcha!" game to me. Purdue may be 3–3, but the Boilermakers aren't too far behind 5–1 Illinois in total offense and total defense.
  
  If the Illini aren't careful, this could be their fourth straight loss at Purdue. But I'm betting that Illinois will hang in there long enough to win by a field goal.

Last week: 12–5

Season: 120–22

The Debate Over Top Ranking Intensifies

---

---

The Great Debate has begun in earnest in college football. Who deserves to be ranked #1 right now? And will that team be ranked #1 when the season is over?

That second question simply cannot be answered in mid–October. But there are always those who will argue over the merits of ranking one team ahead of another. It was that way before the BCS rankings were thrown into the mix, and it simply intensifies when the first BCS calculations are announced.

Those first BCS rankings of 2011 won't be released until after this weekend's games, but a vigorous debate has already begun over whether Oklahoma, LSU or Alabama — or even someone else — should be ranked at the top of the list.

Last weekend's games really didn't help clarify things much:

• Bill Reiter of Fox Sports observed, in the aftermath of LSU's victory over Florida, that Les Miles "might be the most underappreciated top–tier football coach in the country."


• In the latest edition of the "Red River Rivalry," Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman writes that Oklahoma "reminded Texas who really owns this conference" in the Sooners' convincing 55–17 triumph in the Cotton Bowl.


• As for Alabama, well, the Crimson Tide demolished Vanderbilt, as expected. But 'Bama was entitled to a breather, having beaten Arkansas and Florida on consecutive Saturdays.

I don't think one of the big three is likely to be the victim of an upset this week, and the debate should continue when the first BCS standings are released.

Only two things seem truly clear midway through the college football season:

1. A good case can be made for all three schools, but the Alabama–LSU part of the equation should be settled in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 5.
   
   Normally, Tuscaloosa would intimidate a visiting team, but LSU had won four in a row there until the Crimson Tide beat the Tigers en route to the national title in 2009.
   
   In fact, LSU has defeated Alabama in eight of their last 11 meetings so beating the Tide, whatever the venue, is feasible for the Tigers, and, according to Glenn Guilbeau of the Shreveport Times, they became so bored in their ho–hum win over Florida last week that the Tigers were fantasizing that they were actually beating up on Alabama.
   
   They will have to wait a few more weeks for their real chance.
   
   But speaking of Florida ...


2. For the first time in nearly 30 years, no team from Florida is in AP's rankings.
   
   Considering that Florida, Florida State and Miami have all played for — and won — national titles at one time or another in the last 12 years, that is a pretty amazing development.

Idle: #10 Arkansas, #13 West Virginia, #14 Nebraska, #25 Houston

Saturday

• #1 LSU at Tennessee, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: LSU has beaten Tennessee three straight times, including the 2007 SEC Championship game.
  
  But this has always been a competitive series. Last year, for example, the Volunteers came to Baton Rouge and lost by only two points in a really wild finish. In that 2007 title game, LSU won by a touchdown, and the year before, the Tigers left Knoxville with a four–point win.
  
  Neither side has much regard for the other's home field. "I like beating people in their own house," a Tiger player told the Baton Rouge Advocate recently. He probably does feel that way and so do most of his teammates — as would the Vols, I suspect, if they were the road team — but the fact is, I think, that LSU simply has more firepower than Tennessee, and that knowledge is bound to help with your confidence.
  
  They don't play each other every year, but they square off frequently enough, and the last time either beat the other by more than a single score was in 1993, when the Vols doubled up the Tigers, 42–20.
  
  I think the Tigers might finally return the favor. I'm less inclined to think LSU is overrated than I was when the season began, but I still have my doubts about them over the long haul. This weekend, though, I expect LSU to win by a double–digit margin.


• #2 Alabama at Ole Miss, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: In the last two decades, Alabama has lost to Ole Miss only twice — but both losses came in Jackson.
  
  I've seen Alabama play a few times this year. The Crimson Tide has a defense that is worthy of the best that Bear Bryant ever put on the field.
  
  I haven't seen Ole Miss play, but I've seen the scores of the Rebels' games. They're 2–3 with a lopsided loss to the same Vanderbilt team that 'Bama blanked last weekend.
  
  This was once a competitive rivalry. I guess it could be worse for the Rebels. They could be playing in Tuscaloosa, where they haven't won since 1988.
  
  As it is, though, I expect them to lose to Alabama by four touchdowns.


• #3 Oklahoma at Kansas, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: John Shinn of the Norman (Okla.) Transcript reports that the Sooners are only concerned about improving. They aren't worried about the polls.
  
  It may be hard for them to judge just how much better they are becoming, though, with Kansas on this week's schedule. Kansas doesn't figure to be much of a test.
  
  Back in the days of the old Big Eight Conference, OU used to dominate Kansas routinely.
  
  Things haven't changed too much, I suppose. The Sooners have won six in a row against the Jayhawks and haven't lost to KU since 1997. In fact, that '97 loss was OU's third straight to Kansas.
  
  But that was an aberration. It was the first time Kansas beat Oklahoma in football in two or more consecutive seasons since the Herbert Hoover administration. That's how lopsided the series has been.
  
  And things don't figure to get any better for the 2–3 Jayhawks, who were blown out by Oklahoma State, 70–28, last week. I'll take Oklahoma by five touchdowns.


• Indiana at #4 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The Badgers have beaten the Hoosiers six straight times.
  
  And this edition of the Hoosiers — 1–5 so far — simply doesn't seem even remotely capable of claiming only its fourth win in Madison since 1989.
  
  I predict that Wisconsin — which beat Indiana by 63 points last year — will win this one by at least 30.


• #5 Boise State at Colorado State, 5 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn.: Colorado State is new to the Mountain West Conference, and these schools will be facing each other for the first time.
  
  The absence of a history doesn't keep me from reaching a conclusion on this game, though. Boise is undefeated. CSU is 3–2 — not bad but no signature wins.
  
  Boise is 30th in the nation in total offense; CSU is 95th. Boise is 12th in the nation in total defense; CSU is 33rd.
  
  By virtue of its 14–10 win over New Mexico, CSU currently leads the conference with a 1–0 record. This will be Boise's first conference game of the season. And I predict Boise State will win by at least 31 points.


• #6 Oklahoma State at #22 Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Last year's win in Stillwater was OSU's first victory over Texas since 1997.
  
  Since the schools became conference rivals, OSU has only won at Texas once — last season. Until that happened, Texas had beaten OSU 10 straight times at home.
  
  (A good barometer for how well the Longhorn defense is holding up, writes Kirk Bohls in the Austin American–Statesman, could be whether OSU's punter is forced to punt more often. The Cowboys have performed so well on offense this season that the punter has only had to punt a couple of times per game.)
  
  Anyway, I pick Oklahoma State to win by 10 points.


• #7 Stanford at Washington State: Stanford usually enjoys success when it visits Washington State, winning seven of its last 10 games there.
  
  But this can be kind of a streaky and unpredictable series.
  
  Last year, for example, when Stanford's only loss all season came on the road at Oregon, lowly WSU (only two wins all season) came closer to beating Stanford than any visitor except for Southern California.
  
  At 3–2, Washington State has already matched its win total for 2009 and 2010 combined. Two more victories will match the total for those seasons and 2008 — and maybe the Cougars will manage to win two more games this season.
  
  But I don't expect them to get one of them against Stanford. I expect Stanford to win by a couple of touchdowns.


• #8 Clemson at Maryland, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There was a time, primarily in the latter half of the 1980s and 1990s, when Clemson routinely defeated Maryland, sometimes by wide margins.
  
  In the last decade or so, though, the Terps have been something of a thorn in the Tigers' side. They've split their last dozen games, and home field has proven to be neither an advantage nor a disadvantage.
  
  I certainly don't think home field will help Maryland much in this game. The Terps have lost three of their last four games, with only a win over Towson to show for their trouble. Clemson, meanwhile, has beaten Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech en route to a 6–0 start.
  
  I pick Clemson by a touchdown.


• #18 Arizona State at #9 Oregon: In the last couple of decades, Oregon has beaten Arizona State about two–thirds of the time.
  
  The Ducks' success rate at home has been slightly better than that.
  
  But they have seldom faced a Sun Devil team that was playing as well as this one has this far into the season — and sometimes, like when the Ducks hosted the Sun Devils in 2004, they do not win.
  
  Adam Jude of the Eugene (Ore.) Register–Guard says Oregon is moving forward in spite of injuries to key players like rusher LaMichael James. "Injuries happen," the Ducks' coach says. It's part of football.
  
  And Oregon victories are usually predictable in this series — so I choose Oregon by 10 points.


• #11 Michigan at #23 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Michigan State has beaten its cross–state rivals three straight times.
  
  That really astonishes me because, through most of my life and especially when I was a child, Michigan beat Michigan State just about every year. Michigan State victories over Michigan were rare; victories in consecutive seasons were rarer still.
  
  This year, the rankings suggest that Michigan will end its losing streak. But the Spartans can be stubborn in Lansing, and Denny Schwarze of the Lansing State Journal observes the Spartans have the opportunity to hand the Wolverines their first loss of the year for the third consecutive season.
  
  In this series, that is more than enough motivation. And I'm going to predict that Michigan State will win what may be the most exciting game of the weekend — by a single point.


• #12 Georgia Tech at Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Georgia Tech has played in a bowl game for 14 straight years, and, judging from the Yellow Jackets' ranking thus far into the 2011 campaign, it is likely that Tech will make that 15 in a row.
  
  Virginia has appeared in bowls about half as often — and the Cavaliers have been to only one bowl in the last five years — but they are 12–9 against Tech since 1990, and they are 8–2 against Tech at home in that time.
  
  Jerry Ratcliffe of the Charlottesville (Va.) Daily Progress says stopping Tech's triple–threat offense poses a strategic challenge. I think so, too.
  
  I also think Georgia Tech will win, but Virginia will keep it close.


• #15 South Carolina at Mississippi State, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: South Carolina holds a narrow edge in its series with Mississippi State since the two became conference rivals in the early 1990s.
  
  That's a little misleading, though. Carolina hasn't lost to MSU since 1999, but the teams play in different divisions so they play each other irregularly — or, at least, they have since the dawn of the 21st century. In the '90s, they met every year, and MSU won most of those encounters, but their roles have reversed in the last 10 years.
  
  Mississippi State is clearly struggling this year, having lost three of its last five games. South Carolina, meanwhile, is 5–1. The one thing the teams have in common is a loss to the defending national champion, Auburn. MSU lost on the road by a touchdown. South Carolina lost at home by a field goal.
  
  In what will probably be regarded a mild upset, I will pick Mississippi State to win at home by a single point.


• Ohio State at #16 Illinois, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It isn't so outrageous to imagine Illinois facing Ohio State in a regionally televised football game.
  
  What does seem strange is that it is Illinois, not Ohio State, that enters the game undefeated and ranked — in fact, the Illini are 6–0 for the first time since 1951 — while Ohio State comes into the game with two straight defeats (three losses in the Buckeyes' last four games) and nothing remotely resembling a ranking (not even so much as a single vote in the latest AP poll).
  
  Anyway, Illinois is now bowl eligible, and who knows if Ohio State will win enough games to play in a bowl this year? For someone who grew up watching Woody Hayes prowl the sidelines, this is through–the–looking–glass territory.
  
  That Illinois team went on to play in — and win — the Rose Bowl against Stanford, and it eventually improved to 7–0 before suffering its only blemish of the year, a tie with — wait for it — Ohio State.
  
  If this game was in Columbus, I would be tempted to take Ohio State. I'm still tempted to take Ohio State, but I'll resist that temptation and take Illinois to win by a field goal.


• #17 Kansas State at Texas Tech, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: In recent years, Tech has had the upper hand in its games with non–divisional rival KSU, but, in the 1990s, the edge belonged to the Wildcats, who made three appearances in the Big 12 title game in five years.
  
  Kansas State is back in the rankings and Tech, a top 10 team not so long ago, is not ranked, but the Red Raiders might be on their way back. I have a lot of respect for KSU's coach, and I believe what the Wildcats have accomplished this year is quite remarkable, but I'm still going to take Texas Tech at home — where the Wildcats are 1–3 against the Raiders since 1997.


• #19 Virginia Tech at Wake Forest, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Wake Forest hasn't beaten Virginia Tech since 1983.
  
  I'm tempted to take Wake Forest, simply because the Demon Deacons are 3–1 (and 2–0 in ACC play) while Tech is 4–1 (0–1 in the ACC) — but Tech's lone setback came against eighth–ranked Clemson.
  
  Wake Forest probably will have to beat Clemson if the Deacons hope to play in the ACC title game, but Wake Forest won't play Clemson for another month. The game with Tech figures to be the Deacons' greatest conference test between now and then.
  
  And I don't think they will pass it. I predict Virginia Tech will win by a touchdown.


• #20 Baylor at #21 Texas A&M, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: This will be the 27th time Baylor and Texas A&M have played since Baylor left College Station with a victory.
  
  Oh, the Bears have beaten the Aggies since 1984 — three times — but those wins came in Waco, and the teams did play to a tie in College Station once — back in 1990 — but that, as they used to say before overtime put an end to that tying foolishness, is like kissing your sister. Or at least your cousin (unless you happen to be Jerry Lee Lewis).
  
  Baylor backers crave an outcome with more meaning.
  
  The Aggies struggled through two second–half implosions recently — their losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas — but they seem to have gotten back on track with their win at Texas Tech last week. I think they will keep that momentum going this week, and I pick Texas A&M to win by 15 points.


• Florida at #24 Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Since 1990, Florida is 10–5 against Auburn, but most of those wins have come at home.
  
  This will be a crucial game for both teams. Defending national champion Auburn is 2–1 in SEC play and needs to win this game to stay in the hunt for the conference championship game. The Tigers still have dates with LSU and Alabama on their schedule so they can be said to control their own destiny — as long as they don't lose any other conference games.
  
  Florida is 2–2 in conference play and needs to keep winning to keep pace with once–beaten South Carolina and Georgia, both of whom the Gators have yet to play. What's more, a win over Auburn could catapult the Gators back into the rankings.
  
  I expect this to be a pretty entertaining game, and I pick Florida to win it by a point or two.

Last week: 19–3

Season: 108–17