Who Will Play for National Crown?

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" 'Ass' is okay providing you're riding into town on a religious feast day."

George Carlin

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With so much on the line in Saturday night's game between top–ranked Notre Dame and unranked Southern California, I suppose churches can be forgiven for getting into the act.

It's a big rivalry, anyway, but with a trip to the national championship game hanging in the balance for one — and the desire to deprive the first of that honor motivating the second — I suppose the stakes were just too great.

Well, Notre Dame won the game and, presumably, will be in the title game.

But it remains to be seen who will play against the Irish in January.

Logic says it will be the winner of the SEC Championship game between #2 Alabama and #3 Georgia tomorrow. And I would tend to agree with that — if Alabama wins the game. But if Georgia wins, I think a compelling case could be made for #5 Florida even though Georgia will almost certainly wind up facing Notre Dame if the Bulldogs defeat Alabama (who, it is worth noting, went on to play for and win the national championship last season even though the Crimson Tide did not play for the SEC title).

The Gators are 11–1, same as Georgia and Alabama. They did lose their head–to–head matchup with Georgia a month ago (17–9), but they hammered a South Carolina team that had hammered Georgia two weeks before.

And the Gators did something Alabama couldn't do. They beat Texas A&M on the road. Alabama couldn't beat the Aggies at home.

The stakes are high in the SEC Championship game. The winner, of course, is widely expected to face Notre Dame in the championship game.

But the loser?

Chip Towers of the Atlanta Journal–Constitution contends that the loser of Saturday's game will take a considerable tumble in the bowl picture even though it will only be the second loss for whichever team comes up short.

Idle: #1 Notre Dame, #4 Ohio State, #5 Florida, #6 Oregon, #9 LSU, #10 Texas A&M, #11 South Carolina, #15 Clemson, #16 Oregon, #20 Utah State, #21 Michigan, #22 Northwestern

Friday

• MAC Championship: #19 Northern Illinois at #18 Kent State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Neither of these 11–1 teams has lost since early September.
  
  Kent State has a 10–game winning streak on the line, and Northern Illinois has an 11–game winning streak at risk.
  
  They didn't play each other this season so there is no head–to–head outcome to give us guidance.
  
  Historically, the series belongs to Northern Illinois, which has never lost to Kent State on its home turf (10–0). Unfortunately for the Huskies, the game is being played at Kent State. Northern Illinois has been very successful there, too — 6–3 — but not quite as successful.
  
  The teams don't play every year, but Northern Illinois has only lost at Kent once in 30 years. And Northern Illinois has only lost once to Kent State — no matter where the game has been played — in their last 10 meetings.
  
  That doesn't bode well for the Golden Flashes although the game should be quite a conference showcase.
  
  Half a dozen backs racked up 1,000 yards or more this season, and three (Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch and Kent State's Dri Archer and Trayion Durham) will be suiting up for the championship.
  
  Lynch was also the MAC's fifth–best passer — which would be expected, I guess, from the nation's 16th–best offense (Kent was 63rd).
  
  Northern Illinois also has the better defense (ranked #7 in the nation compared to Kent's #73 ranking).
  
  I pick Northern Illinois.
• Pac–12 Championship: #17 UCLA at #8 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have been playing each other every year since the end of World War II.
  
  And it's tempting, given the fact that these teams played each other last weekend, to predict a repeat of what happened in Los Angeles last Saturday.
  
  To refresh your memory, Stanford won that game, 35–17. It was Stanford's second consecutive win on UCLA's home turf.
  
  Now the scene shifts to the north, to Stanford's home turf — where UCLA has won only twice in the last 15 years.
  
  UCLA might have the offense to get the job done. The Bruins ranked 21st in the nation (Stanford ranked 83rd). And if the game turns into a shootout, one would expect UCLA to have the upper hand. After all, offense — not defense — has long been the conference's strength.
  
  But if it turns out to be a defensive struggle, Stanford has the advantage. Stanford ranks 19th in the nation; UCLA is 77th.
  
  The weather may dictate which it is.
  
  The forecast for tonight is temperatures in the 50s with an 80% chance of rain (after a day in which the probability of rain is 100%). That suggests that defense may dominate on a sloppy field.
  
  It's awfully hard for one football team to beat another twice in one year, but I will pick Stanford to pull it off.

Saturday

• SEC Championship: #3 Georgia vs. #2 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Playing in the SEC Championship game is not a new experience for Alabama.
  
  The Crimson Tide has played in seven since the conference title game made its debut in 1992 — more appearances than any other SEC West team and all against Florida.
  
  Georgia is no stranger to the SEC Championship game, either. The Bulldogs will be playing in their fifth.
  
  You would think that these schools would be natural border rivals, but the truth is they haven't faced each other since 2008.
  
  And even if they faced each other every year, there are at least three other schools that Alabama has long–standing rivalries with — LSU, Auburn and Florida.
  
  Alabama is one of those schools that is everyone's rival when the Crimson Tide appears on the schedule.
  
  Georgia's been good this season, but Alabama has the nation's best defense. And the SEC has always been a bastion for great defense. Georgia's offense is ranked 24th, which is pretty good, but how effective can it be against the best defense in the land?
  
  Alabama's offense is ranked 43rd, which isn't bad, but Georgia's defense is ranked 22nd in the nation — all of which suggests a low–scoring contest.
  
  And I'm going to predict that, in an upset, Georgia will win.
• #23 Texas at #7 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There aren't many schools that can claim to have the upper hand in a series with Texas.
  
  But Kansas State can. The Wildcats are 7–5 against the Longhorns, and they're 6–2 against UT since the formation of the Big 12 in the mid–'90s.
  
  K–State might still be mentioned — probably would be — in the national championship conversation if not for the 52–24 loss that Baylor hung on the Wildcats last weekend. That, alone, should provide plenty of motivation for the Wildcats.
  
  When Texas has the ball, the Longhorns' #33 offense should be evenly matched with K–State's #40 defense. When Kansas State has the ball, it seems likely the Wildcats will have the edge. Their offense is ranked only #55, but Texas' woeful defense is ranked #79.
  
  I think Kansas State will win the game.
• #12 Oklahoma at TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the first time these teams have faced each other as members of the same conference, but they are hardly strangers.
  
  They have played 11 times in the past, and Oklahoma leads the series, 7–4.
  
  TCU has a good team, but I'm not sure the Frogs have what it takes to beat OU, even at home.
  
  The marquee matchup should occur when OU has the ball. The Sooners' offense is ninth in the nation, but it should be adequately tested by TCU's defense, which is ranked 14th.
  
  The Sooner' #44 defense should be evenly matched with TCU's offense (#55), which leads me to believe the Sooners will have the upper hand.
  
  I pick Oklahoma.
• ACC Championship: #13 Florida State at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is kind of an odd series.
  
  From 1955 to 1975, Georgia Tech was 6–0–1 against Florida State, but then the Seminoles reeled off 12 straight wins from 1992 to 2003.
  
  The teams didn't play again until 2008, but Tech won that year and again in 2009. They haven't played since.
  
  Georgia Tech lost its leading rusher, Orwin Smith, to a sprained ankle against Georgia last Saturday, but he hopes to be back in the lineup for the ACC Championship game.
  
  That would be good news for Tech fans, whose 28th–ranked offense likely will struggle with Florida State's second–ranked defense even with Smith in the lineup. Tech's 59th–ranked defense, meanwhile, can be expected to have a hard time containing Florida State's 19th–ranked offense.
  
  I think Florida State will win the game.
• Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin at #14 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If you're a fan of defense, this might be the game for you.
  
  Both defenses rank in the Top 15 nationally (Wisconsin is #11, Nebraska is #15). Nebraska's offense (#24) seems much better equipped to handle that challenge than Wisconsin's (#84).
  
  As a result, I have to pick Nebraska to win.
• #24 Oklahoma State at Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Oklahoma State has only lost to Baylor once since 1994, and the Cowboys currently have a six–game winning streak against the Bears.
  
  The teams combined for 83 points in each of their last two meetings, but, if anything, their offenses appear to be capable of doing even better than that this time. Baylor is ranked second in the nation, OSU is ranked fifth.
  
  But Baylor has the next–to–worst defense in the nation. The Bears were able to overcome that in their game with Kansas State next week, but I don't see how they can manage that two weeks in a row.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.
• #25 Boise State at Nevada, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's really hard for me to see how Boise State can lose this game.
  
  Historically, Boise dominates the series, leading 11–4. Boise has only lost to Nevada once since 1999.
  
  Nevada, however, has the #10 offense in the land, which should make for some intriguing clashes when Boise's eighth–ranked defense is on the field.
  
  Boise State's offense is only #79 in the country — a considerable tumble from recent years — but that should produce another even match since Nevada's defense is ranked 86th.
  
  There's a natural inclination within me (as there is within many people) to pull for the underdog, and, if I watch this game on Saturday, I'll probably pull for Nevada since the Wolf Pack are almost certain to be the underdogs (given their history against Boise State).
  
  But logic tells me Boise State will win.

Last week: 13–6

Season: 203–55

BCS Chaos

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I have made no secret of my distaste for the so–called Bowl Championship Series — or BCS — that is supposed to match the two best college football teams in a national championship game at season's end, even though neither team must earn its spot in a playoff system.

Unless one or both must play in a conference championship game.

But no champions from other conferences must be conquered to reach the national title game. Only the pollsters and computers must be persuaded of the teams' worthiness — and they need not be familiar with the teams they choose.

In fact, there probably are coaches who vote in their poll or sports writers who vote in their poll who have had little, if any, exposure to the teams that ultimately are anointed to play for all the marbles.

That is my greatest gripe about the BCS system, I suppose.

Let's assume, if only for a minute, that LSU wins the SEC championship game against Georgia. A case can be made that the participants in that game earned their berths on the field — and, since the championship game will be played on a day when there will be very few other college football games, it is logical to assume that most, if not all, of the coaches who participate in their poll and the sports writers who participate in their poll will see the game.

But week in and week out, how many coaches do you suppose take time out from their own game preparation responsibilities to familiarize themselves with three or four dozen college teams by watching tape of and/or reading articles about them?

For that matter, how many sports writers take time from their coverage of local or regional programs to view the tapes and read the articles relating to those same three or four dozen college teams from around the country?

Probably few in either instance.

But, like lemmings allegedly committing mass suicide when they migrate, they follow the group. What may have begun as the perception of a few becomes a self–fulfilling prophecy.

Unless fate intervenes.

Fate intervened this weekend.

LSU, the top–ranked team in the nation, almost surely will remain where it was when the weekend began.

But #2 Oklahoma State as certainly will drop after its double–overtime loss to Iowa State on Friday night — a development that was doubly shocking. The Cowboys were expected to whip the Cyclones, even before the news reached the team that the OSU women's basketball coach and one of his assistants were killed in an airplane crash in central Arkansas.

News of the tragedy was expected to serve as even more motivation for the Cowboys — but it didn't.

They were stunned, I guess — or maybe they were simply lethargic. Their big showdown with Oklahoma is two weeks away — and the Cowboys have next week off. How could 10–0 Oklahoma State, with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State, get excited about playing 5–4 Iowa State?

Whatever it was, the Cowboys lost the game.

Folks were still absorbing that news when a couple of other bombshells were dropped on the Top 10.

First, the other Oklahoma school went down in spectacular fashion. The once–beaten Sooners faced Baylor University, a team that had never beaten Oklahoma in 19 previous attempts. In fact, it had been more than a decade since Baylor even came within two touchdowns of OU.

But, on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, the Bears beat the fifth–ranked Sooners — pretty convincingly, too.

And, as that equally shocking development was playing out in the heart of Texas, there was even more.

Fourth–ranked Oregon was losing its second game of the season. The Ducks' first defeat was way back at the beginning of the season in a Labor Day weekend clash with LSU. Oregon had been craving a rematch in the national championship game, but the loss to 18th–ranked Southern California undoubtedly put an end to any such hopes.

It can be argued, for that matter, that Oklahoma is also out of the national championship conversation. And, although they have only one loss, that one loss — to a six–win team — is probably too devastating for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to overcome.

Well, I've been saying it would take a state of utter chaos to build momentum for the implementation of a playoff system — and we may be witnessing the start of such a state.

But I want it to go beyond what has happened this weekend.

On Friday, my alma mater, the University of Arkansas (ranked sixth when the weekend began and certain to move up in the rankings later today following a 44–17 victory over Mississippi State yesterday) will travel to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Baton Rouge can be a scary place for most football teams — but not necessarily for Arkansas.

Sure, the Razorbacks are 1–4 in Baton Rouge since 2001, but all but one of those games were decided by three points or less. And the Razorbacks have won three of their last four games against the Tigers.

Another victory is not out of the question — and it could propel the Razorbacks into the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Especially if Auburn upends currently second–ranked Alabama in Saturday's Iron Bowl. If you're scoffing at that notion, let me remind you that Alabama–Auburn is a rivalry of long standing — and rivalries like that operate in spheres of their own.

There are other things that could happen in other games to change the dynamics of the BCS and make more college football fans think about the system that currently chooses the national champion and how it compares to a legitimate playoff system.

Undoubtedly, those things will be evident later today when the latest polls come out and then tonight when the latest BCS standings are released.

In the end, LSU may well be the only unbeaten team standing and may be the unquestionable choice to be national champion.

But I'm still pulling for chaos, and if what happened on Friday and Saturday is the beginning of revolutionary chaos, then all I can say is ...

Let the revolution begin.

But, for now, I am pleased.

Who Will Be Playing in Miami?

Saturday’s one-point loss to Iowa has doomed Penn State’s hopes for a national title, says Sam Ross Jr. in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Practically the same thing happened to Penn State nine years ago, he writes. Then ranked second in the nation, the Nittany Lions lost to Minnesota by the same 24-23 score.

"The 1999 Penn State team couldn't recover," Ross says, "losing back-to-back games to Michigan and Michigan State."

Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated writes that Penn State’s loss was a good thing for the Big Ten, in the aftermath of a couple of poor performances by Ohio State in the last two national championship games.

"The majority of the country did not want to see Penn State in the BCS title game," Mandel writes. Saturday’s loss, he says, means "the issue is moot."

Gennaro Filice writes, in his FanNation blog, that Penn State’s "national title hopes are officially cooked."

Filice admits that Penn State can still win the Big Ten title. And he concedes that it’s possible that no team from a BCS conference will finish the season unbeaten.

However, "due to the Big Ten's perceived inferiority this season, Penn State's lone blemish has far more significance than a single notch in the loss column," he writes.

The loss to Iowa, Filice says, is a "knockout blow."

Is it?

Well, a lot of things can happen in college football.

A single loss by a single point doesn’t have to destroy a team’s chances of playing for the national title — although it’s usually best if it happens early in the season, when the team has a chance to make its case in several games, rather than late in the season, when there aren’t many opportunities left to repair the team’s image.

Lord knows, I'm no fan of the BCS. But it's the system that's in use and, at this stage, I think the die may be cast — that there may be only one berth in the national title game that Penn State has a theoretical — albeit remote — chance of grabbing.

If that’s the case, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Penn State to make up that much ground in less than a month.

Anyway,

• I believe one of the slots in the national championship game will go to the winner of the SEC Championship clash between Alabama and Florida in Atlanta on Dec. 6.
  
  The conference schedule hasn’t been played out yet, but both teams have clinched their division championships and will face off in December.
  
  Of course, a lot of things could happen to remove the spotlight from this game. Alabama (10-0) still has to play its in-state rival, Auburn, on Nov. 29. The Tigers are only 5-5 this year, but rivalries are different from ordinary games.
  
  Likewise, Florida (8-1) has to face its in-state rival, Florida State (7-2), the same day.
  
  And, this Saturday, Florida has to play its final regular-season conference game against South Carolina (7-3).
  
  But if Florida and Alabama can clear their last regular-season hurdles, I expect the winner of their game to play for the national championship in Miami in January.


• Logic tells me that the other team in the national championship picture will be the team that finishes atop the Big 12 South.
  
  Right now, that would figure to be 10-0 Texas Tech, which has a well-deserved week off next weekend after defeating previously unbeaten Texas last weekend and then following that with a win over once-beaten Oklahoma State on Saturday.
  
  The Red Raiders can’t relax too much, however, because, after beating the Longhorns and Cowboys at home in Lubbock, they have to travel to Norman, Okla., a week from Saturday to face Oklahoma.
  
  Some more bad news for Tech. Oklahoma also has the week off to prepare for the showdown.
  
  And what a showdown it should be!
  
  Texas Tech has a richly deserved reputation for scoring, but the Sooners have done a pretty fair job of putting points on the board, too. Oklahoma has been held to its season-low of 35 points twice — and the Sooners have scored more than 50 points six times.
  
  But the Sooners' defense has been prone to give up a lot of points at times.
  
  If Tech can beat OU, the Red Raiders should finish the regular season unbeaten — their final opponent is 3-7 Baylor on Nov. 29.
  
  But OU could cause problems. If the Sooners win, it’s possible that three teams — OU, Texas and Texas Tech — will finish the season tied atop the Big 12 South.
  
  For that to happen, Oklahoma would have to follow the win over Tech with a win at Oklahoma State on Nov. 29 — and the 8-2 Cowboys have been no pushovers this season. They should be rested and ready — all they have to do between now and the 29th is dispose of 5-5 Colorado.
  
  But, if it does happen, Mandel writes, the tiebreaker would be determined by which team has the highest BCS ranking.
  
  "The voters would decide who gets to play for the Big 12 championship," Mandel writes. "How the heck are they supposed to do that? Would they elevate the Sooners over a Texas team they lost to? Would non-conference wins be part of the decision?"
  
  If OSU knocks off OU, that would open the door for Tech and Texas to share the division title. If that happened, Tech would win the spot in the conference championship game, based on their head-to-head victory over the Longhorns.
  
  But, because they lost recently to OU, the Red Raiders would probably be out of the national title picture by that point. And, in an ironic twist, the Longhorns might be back in it.
  
  Clearly, it would be a whole lot easier on everyone if Tech just beats Oklahoma and goes on to play in the Big 12 championship game, probably against Missouri.
  
  Which raises another point. What happens if the Big 12 South champ stumbles in the conference championship game against Missouri?
  
  Mathematically, it’s conceivable that Missouri won’t emerge as the Big 12 North champion. The Tigers still have to face Kansas on Nov. 29. The Jayhawks trail the Tigers by a game in the standings, but they could overcome that by winning their head-to-head matchup.
  
  But, for Kansas to sneak in past Missouri, the Jayhawks would probably have to win their other remaining game, which is against Texas — and that doesn’t appear to be too likely for 6-4 KU.
  
  The other contender in the Big 12 North is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers could leapfrog the Tigers (who won their head-to-head match in early October) if they sweep Kansas State and Colorado.
  
  But that would require Missouri to lose to not only Kansas but also 2-8 Iowa State beforehand.
  
  So it’s unlikely but possible that Missouri won’t represent the Big 12 North in the conference title game.
  
  Still, you never know what’s going to happen in the Big 12 Championship game.
  
  Well, Jimmy Burch of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram seems to know what's going to happen.
  
  "If Tech continues to match the poise and precision it showed Saturday while dismantling No. 8 Oklahoma State 56-20 the Red Raiders will get [to the BCS title game]," he writes. "And deserve it."


• If the unexpected happens, and a legitimate national championship contender doesn’t emerge from the Big 12, it seems to me that the next most likely prospect for the slot against either Alabama or Florida would be Southern California.
  
  USC (8-1) has to face a couple of teams that are struggling to win enough games to qualify for a bowl bid — 5-5 Stanford and 5-4 Notre Dame — before wrapping up the regular season against crosstown rival UCLA (3-6).
  
  To me, it looks like a longshot for USC to get into the national title game, but if the Trojans sweep those last three games, they’ll have to wait and see what happens in the Big 12, like everyone else. USC plays in a conference that doesn’t determine its championship in a postseason title game.


• In the extremely unlikely event that Tech, Texas and Oklahoma all drop out of the running and USC loses to one of the apparent creampuffs remaining on its schedule, the latest BCS standings suggest that the next team in line would be 10-0 Utah.
  
  Utah has two regular-season games left — San Diego State (1-9) this weekend, and 9-1 Brigham Young the next. If BYU beats Utah, the Utes are out of the running.
  
  It’s hard for me to imagine the Utes playing Alabama or Florida for the national championship. If circumstances start to eliminate the teams at the head of the list, my guess is that the pollsters would elevate Penn State — and put the Nittany Lions in the championship game ahead of Utah.

Anyway, there’s clearly some drama remaining in this college football season.

I doubt that Penn State is on its way to Miami in January — but Pasadena isn't bad as alternate destinations go.

Is USC One and Done?

I stayed up late enough on Thursday night to watch Oregon State hold off Southern Cal's comeback attempt, and the then-No. 1 Trojans lost the decision to the upstart Beavers, 27-21.

And, because of that loss in late September, many people are now writing off USC's prospects for playing for a national title in January.

For example, Michael Ventre writes, for NBCSports.com, that the Trojans can forget about appearing in the national title game in January.

"The Trojans didn’t just hurt their chances to play for a national title," Ventre says, "they slaughtered them."

Ventre doesn't refer to the mere fact that Oregon State was unranked. In fact, according to SportsIllustrated.com, the Beavers barely rank in the top half of the entire Division I.

He contends that the real problem is that the Trojans "should have learned this lesson already" when they lost at home to Stanford, 24-23, nearly a year ago, "and that’s why voters will punish them from here on."

Thus, in Ventre's analysis, those who vote in the poll rankings have such long memories and extensive knowledge of college football that they will remember not only that USC lost to Stanford last October but also that they will recall the role they played in gradually improving USC's chances of playing for the national championship by continuing to rank them higher with each succeeding victory — and they will seek absolution for their complicity.

"People are savvier these days," Ventre writes, "and they’re more likely to sip the Kool-Aid rather than guzzle it without thinking."

In Ventre's words, last year the Trojans "finished strong and made an inspired case for why they should play for the national championship."

But, in the end, even though the Trojans were in the running for a berth in the national title game, they didn't get it.

Ventre suggests that the voters won't let USC get away with another upset loss in 2008 and be a prospect for the national championship by season's end. I think he gives the voters more credit than they deserve.

Personally, I'm not convinced that USC won't be in the national title picture again at the end of the season — assuming they run the table the rest of the way.

And, as weak as the Pac-10 is, it seems likely to me that USC can win the rest of its games.

It seems to me that the team that has been living on borrowed time is Ohio State.

The Buckeyes played SEC teams for the national title the last two years and failed miserably each time.

USC's loss on Thursday night should weigh even more heavily on the Buckeyes than on the Trojans. It was merely two weeks ago that Ohio State was hammered in a face-to-face meeting with the same USC team that was embarrassed by Oregon State.

So it seems to me that the real question should be, will the pollsters promote Ohio State (currently languishing in the Second Ten of both Top 25 polls) and eventually give the Buckeyes a third straight opportunity to seize the ring — in spite of lurching through the season?

Lord knows, I'm no fan of the BCS. But there's a good reason why the BCS rankings are not released until after the midway point of the season. It gives teams time to show their true identities.

Are they contenders or pretenders? That's a question that simply cannot be adequately answered in three or four games.

And, with all due respect to Ventre, the BCS pollsters haven't demonstrated to me that their memories are longer than the typical gypsy moth's.