Auburn's Aura of Inevitability

---

---

A couple of weeks ago, I was willing to let Auburn's miraculous, last–minute, game–winning touchdown against Georgia fall under the heading of "one of those things."

But then an even more miraculous finish occurred in last Saturday's Iron Bowl against two–time defending national champion Alabama (see attached video).

And I had to conclude that maybe there is a sense of inevitability around the Auburn football team this year.

Currently, Florida State and Ohio State are the picks to advance to the national championship game. But they both have to play conference championship games this weekend, and it possible that one or both could lose.

If either team loses, Auburn could sneak in to the national championship game — but Auburn must face Missouri in the SEC's championship game this weekend. An Auburn loss coupled with a loss by Florida State and/or Ohio State could throw the whole BCS into chaos.

In the past, that would not have bothered me. But the BCS' days are numbered, and we know a playoff system is going to be implemented. No useful purpose could be served by the kind of chaos that would be created by a long–running debate over whether one or both of the teams chosen to play for the national title deserve(s) to be there.

Idle: #4 Alabama, #8 South Carolina, #12 Oregon, #13 Clemson, #14 LSU, #17 UCLA, #21 Wisconsin, #22 Texas A&M, #25 Georgia

Today

• #19 Louisville at Cincinnati, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Cincinnati has a chance — albeit a slim one — to play in a BCS bowl if the Bearcats can upend the Cardinals and Central Florida loses on Saturday.
  
  That's a longshot, though.
  
  It isn't necessarily a longshot historically. These teams have faced each other 44 times and, were it not for a tie back in 1977, they would be even at 22–22. Louisville did beat Cincinnati last year, but Cincinnati won the four games played prior to that.
  
  The teams are deadlocked in Cincinnati (11–11).
  
  And it isn't even a longshot statistically. Cincinnati's offense (ranked 18th) is better than Louisville's (32nd).
  
  But it is defense, they say, that wins championships, and Louisville's is second only to Michigan State's. Cincinnati's is ranked eighth, though.
  
  It should be a good game, and Cincinnati might win, but I'll still take Louisville.

Friday

• Mid–American Championship — Bowling Green vs. #16 Northern Illinois at Detroit, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Bowling Green leads the all–time series, but Northern Illinois has had the upper hand in four of the last five meetings.
  
  The stakes are high for the Huskies in this game, but the Falcons won't be pushovers.
  
  And the most exciting football of the night might be played when Northern Illinois' fourth–ranked offense takes the field against Bowling Green's seventh–ranked defense.
  
  Bowling Green's offense (ranked 23rd) might have an easier time of it against Northern Illinois' defense (73rd).
  
  I'm tempted to pick Bowling Green because of its defense, but instead I will pick Northern Illinois by a field goal.

Saturday

• ACC Championship — #20 Duke vs. #1 Florida State at Charlotte, N.C., 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have met 18 times, and Florida State has won them all.
  
  But this is a golden opportunity for the Blue Devils, one that might never come their way again. Long known for their prowess on the basketball court, the Blue Devils can win an ACC championship in football — and knock off the top–ranked team in the nation at the same time. What better way to cap the Cinderella season they've had in 2013?
  
  Except it ain't going to happen.
  
  Florida State has the fourth–best defense in the nation and the seventh–best offense. Duke, on the other hand, is in the Top 60 (barely) in both categories.
  
  It would be fun to see Duke win the ACC — and I will be pulling for the Blue Devils — but I still pick Florida State by 10.
• Big Ten Championship — #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Michigan State at Indianapolis, 7:17 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Historically speaking, the odds are against Michigan State.
  
  The Spartans have lost 70% of all their games with the Buckeyes — and more than 80% of the time they have met since 1991. Ohio State, it is fair to say, owns this series.
  
  The question is, will they win this time? To do so will require Ohio State's offense (ranked sixth) to take it to Michigan State's top–ranked defense.
  
  And my guess is that the Spartan defense will have to do some scoring because the 84th–ranked offense cannot be expected to do much against Ohio State (ranked 30th on defense).
  
  I pick Ohio State to claim a narrow win.

---



---

• SEC Championship — #5 Missouri vs. #3 Auburn at Atlanta, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: It has been nearly 40 years since the first — and, until this Saturday, only — meeting between these schools.
  
  It was in December 1973 in the Sun Bowl in El Paso. Auburn won on that occasion, 34–17.
  
  This one looks like a pretty even match. Both teams have Top 20 offenses and defenses — with Auburn holding very narrow advantages in both.
  
  And, as I said earlier, Auburn has taken on that aura of inevitability. We may be in for another incredible finish. I pick Auburn to win.
• #18 Oklahoma at #6 Oklahoma State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: They call this the Bedlam Series in Oklahoma, and OU has had the upper hand in it for a long time.
  
  The Sooners have won nearly 80% of the time they have played the Cowboys. OSU did win the last time the teams met in Stillwater (a notoriously tough place for visitors), but the Sooners won the previous five of six meetings there.
  
  Statistically, OU has the better defense, and OSU has the better offense. Which will emerge as the more dominant?
  
  I'm going to go with Oklahoma State.
• Pac–12 Championship — #7 Stanford at #11 Arizona State, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford owns a two–game winning streak against Arizona State.
  
  But they haven't met in three years. Consequently, Arizona State hasn't beaten Stanford since 2008 — but that game was played at Arizona State where Saturday's game will be played.
  
  Stanford hasn't fared too well at Arizona State. The Cardinal did pull off a 17–13 win when they played there in 2010, but that snapped a four–game home winning streak for the Sun Devils.
  
  But that is what happened in the past. What about the immediate future?
  
  Stanford has a better defense, but Arizona State is ranked in the Top 25 in both offense and defense. And, in the Pac–12, defense has been rendered virtually irrelevant.
  
  I'm inclined to think that Arizona State may be better equipped to play a complete game than Stanford, but my instincts tell me Stanford will find a way to prevail.
• #23 Texas at #9 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Texas has won nearly three–fourths of its games with Baylor, but the Bears have played better when the game has been played in Waco, as it is this year.
  
  In fact, the Bears won the last time they played the Longhorns in Waco, snapping a six–game home losing streak against Texas.
  
  Baylor also has higher–ranked offensive and defensive units than Texas. The Longhorns might make it interesting for awhile, but Baylor should win at home.
• #15 UCF at SMU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: In five previous meetings, UCF has beaten SMU four times.
  
  It is possible that SMU could win this time. The Mustangs have a decent offense (ranked 40th, four spots ahead of UCF), but UCF has, by far, the better defense (#18 to #83).
  
  I expect UCF to win.
• Mountain West Championship — Utah State at #24 Fresno State, 9 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Fresno State has seized the lead in this series with eight wins in the last nine meetings. In fact, Utah State hasn't beaten Fresno State since 2006.
  
  Also in Fresno State's favor is its offensive ranking (second) although Utah State does have the 11th–best defense in the country. The football figures to be a lot less polished when Utah State's 49th–ranked offense takes the field against Fresno's 100th–ranked defense.
  
  I'll take Fresno State by a touchdown.

Last week: 12–6

Season: 217–43

Looking Ahead to the National Championship Game

---

Robert Griffin III and Baylor fans celebrate the Bears' win over Oklahoma on Nov. 19, 2011.

---

Based on the BCS standings, it is looking like Alabama would meet Florida State in the national championship game in January.

Oregon is still a contender, but either Alabama or Florida State would have to stumble for that to happen — and, of course, Oregon would have to win out.

I've been following college football most of my life, and I know that anything truly is possible. It just isn't always probable.

Alabama has won three of the last four national titles; because of that, I guess most people (myself included) take it for granted that the Crimson Tide will be playing in the next national championship game — which will take place in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 6, 2014. That is a reasonable assumption to make, but those plans could be derailed on Saturday when #10 LSU travels to Tuscaloosa. The last time LSU visited Alabama (in 2011), the Tigers won a battle of field goals, 9–6.

So it is possible that Alabama won't be playing in the national championship game. If the Crimson Tide survives, it will have a couple of easy matches with Mississippi State and Chattanooga but then must face the rejuvenated Auburn Tigers in the season–ending Iron Bowl.

And then, if Alabama is still unbeaten, the Tide must face the winner of the SEC East — probably Missouri but South Carolina, Georgia and even Florida still have a mathematical shot at it.

With lopsided wins over Clemson and Miami in recent weeks, Florida State looks almost unbeatable. The Seminoles would have to lose to both Syracuse and Wake Forest and Clemson would have to beat Georgia Tech for Florida State to be denied a spot in the ACC championship game since Florida State holds the tiebreaker over Clemson.

Once there, Florida State, in all likelihood, will face a rematch with Miami. Common sense tells you that won't be an easy game — until you remember how easily Florida State handled Miami last weekend.

So it is probable that Alabama and Florida State will wind up meeting each other in Pasadena. It would be their first encounter since Sept. 29, 2007 and only their fifth ever.

Of course, if one should stumble, the Oregon Ducks will be waiting in the wings.

Oregon faces what is probably its last regular–season challenge tonight when it travels to #6 Stanford. The Ducks do have to face in–state rival Oregon State at the end of the season and then the winner of the Pac–12's South Division — most likely #23 Arizona State — in the conference championship game.

Hang on to your hats. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Idle: #4 Ohio State, #8 Clemson, #13 South Carolina, #18 Michigan State, #22 Northern Illinois

Today

• #2 Oregon at #6 Stanford, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The best game of the weekend just might be played tonight at Stanford.
  
  Oregon has the second–best offense in the nation (Stanford is 79th), but Stanford has the 23rd–best defense in the nation while Oregon is ranked 27th.You might not think so, given Oregon's recent success, but Stanford leads this series, 42–30–1.
  
  Stanford won the encounter last year, prompting George Schroeder of USA Today to ask if Stanford has figured out how to stop the Ducks, but Oregon has won 10 of the last 13 meetings. Historically, Stanford has been quite successful at home, but Oregon has won five of the last six games played there.
  
  This will be the first of what I expect to be a series of cliffhangers in the Pac–12 this week. In the end, I expect Oregon to claim a narrow victory.
• #12 Oklahoma at #5 Baylor, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: I know it's been kind of chilly lately, but it hasn't been anywhere near cold enough for hell to have frozen over.
  
  Yet that was precisely what I wondered when I read this week that Baylor was a two–touchdown favorite over Oklahoma tonight.
  
  This will be the 22nd time these schools have faced each other, and Baylor has lost all but one — the game that was played in Waco two years ago. Eventual Heisman winner Robert Griffin III engineered that 45–38 triumph.
  
  RGIII isn't around anymore, but, so far, Baylor has the top–rated offense in the nation. With Bryce Petty at quarterback and Lache Seastrunk at running back, the Bears are averaging more than 700 yards in total offense per game. The quality of the opposition has been questionable, but there's nothing questionable about the five–game stretch on which Baylor embarks tonight. Texas Tech is next, then Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas (which might be about to name a new coach).
  
  What happens in those five games will tell us whether Baylor really is the juggernaut it is thought to be.
  
  Oklahoma isn't bad on offense. The Sooners never are, but right now they are tied for 50th (a mediocre ranking) with San Diego State. Defense has really been the Sooners' strong point (OU is 10th in the land), but Baylor's 11th–ranked defense is pretty good, too, and seems better equipped to handle OU than OU appears to be to tackle Baylor.
  
  Until only a few years ago, I never would have thought I would predict this, but I pick Baylor to squeak by in this one. I don't think it will be by two touchdowns ... but you never know.

Friday

• #20 Louisville at Connecticut, 7:30 p.m. (Central), 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Connecticut can even the all–time series with a victory. Think that's going to happen?
  
  Louisville's 16th–ranked offense gets most of the attention, but Louisville's defense is ranked second in the nation. Meanwhile, Connecticut's offense is one of the worst in the nation, and its defense is only marginally better.
  
  I expect Louisville to prevail by a couple of touchdowns.

Saturday

---



---

• #10 LSU at #1 Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: For several years now, this has been the game that decided the winner of the SEC West. There are some other contenders for the title now, but this is still the marquee matchup.
  
  And, as is true of most of its all–time series, Alabama has been dominant — but the Tigers have been almost defiant in resisting the perception that, like everyone else in the SEC, they exist for the virtual amusement of the Crimson Tide. LSU has won five of the last six games the two have played in Tuscaloosa.
  
  I guess the spotlight will shine brightest when LSU has the ball. The Tigers are 22nd in offense; Alabama's defense is ranked fifth. Alabama's offense (#35) has been good but a little inconsistent at times. It will be up against the #21 defense.
  
  Mostly what those numbers tell you is that, in true SEC fashion, the defenses are better than the offenses. But how can that be? Both quarterbacks — LSU's Zach Mettenberger and Alabama's A.J. McCarron — are in the top nine. LSU running back Jeremy Hill averages 115 yards a game. Surely they will put some points on the board.
  
  Maybe. But it is just as likely that we could see another field goal duel.
  
  There are some offensive stars in this game, and they should make things interesting. I expect this one to go down to the wire, as the LSU–Alabama game often does.
  
  I do think that Alabama will win, perhaps by as much as a touchdown, and, in this series, that would qualify as a rout (occasionally, one team will beat the other by more than a touchdown, but that doesn't happen often).
• #3 Florida State at Wake Forest, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This is the 32nd time these teams have met, and Wake Forest can't be looking forward to it. The Seminoles have dominated the previous 31 games, 24–6–1.
  
  But most of those games were played at Florida State — and Wake Forest has been more competitive in recent years, going 4–3 against Florida State since 2006.
  
  It will be quite a challenge this year.
  
  Quarterback Jameis Winston leads the Seminoles' fourth–ranked offense. Winston has completed more than 70% of his passes, and his touchdowns–to–interceptions ratio is 4 to 1. Wake Forest's 35th–ranked defense may hang in there for awhile, but Winston will wear that unit down by the second half.
  
  Meanwhile, Wake Forest's 114th–ranked offense should be no match for Florida State's defense, ranked seventh.
  
  It should be an easy victory for Florida State.
• #7 Auburn at Tennessee, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the first encounter between these teams since 2009 so none of the players on either side has any memory of this series — or of the times (in 2004 and 1997) when they played for the SEC championship.
  
  Both teams have been down in recent years, but things seems to be turning in their favor — moreso for Auburn than for Tennessee this season, but the Volunteers have shown signs of life. They're 4–5 and need to win two of their last six games to be bowl eligible. With their last two games against 2–6 Kentucky and 4–4 Vanderbilt, it seems bowl eligibility is an attainable goal for the Vols, but a win over Auburn would look good on their resume next to their win over South Carolina — and might lock up a more prestigious bowl bid.
  
  I expect Auburn to win by a field goal.
• #9 Missouri at Kentucky, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is the first time Missouri has played at Kentucky since 1968.
  
  Of course, the series isn't extensive. Until the Tigers joined the SEC last year, that 1968 encounter was the last time the teams had met.
  
  And, until the teams kick off Saturday morning, it will be the only game played between these teams in Lexington. Kentucky won that '68 game, by the way.
  
  Missouri's 15th–ranked offense, especially its passing game, should have little trouble with Kentucky's 82nd–ranked defense. Missouri's defense, ranked 56th, isn't a whole lot better, but it should be able to stop Kentucky's offense (ranked 98th).
  
  I'll take Missouri.
• Mississippi State at #11 Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: The winner of this game will take the lead in the all–time series — which goes back to 1912, but the teams have only met twice since the Great Depression.
  
  Johnny Manziel (already the subject of pre–draft speculation) is the heart and soul of the Aggies' third–ranked offense, and I expect A&M to score a lot of points, as usual, even though the Aggies are facing the 22nd–ranked defense.
  
  Mississippi State actually has a fairly good offense, too. It is ranked 41st — and should be able to score some points against the Aggie defense, which is 97th. But the Bulldogs won't be able to score enough to win.
  
  I think Texas A&M will outlast Mississippi State.
• Virginia Tech at #14 Miami (Fla.), 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: If this turns into a defensive struggle, my money is on Virginia Tech, which has the third–best defense in the nation. Miami's defense isn't bad (#31), but it just isn't in Tech's league.
  
  If it turns out that offenses dominate, though, my money is on Miami. The Hurricane offense is ranked 38th, which isn't great, but it is much better than Tech (#101).
  
  Miami leads the series, thanks in large part to a seven–game winning streak during the Hurricanes' glory years in the 1980s and early '90s.
  
  Lately, though, the series has favored Tech (7–3 against Miami since 2003).
  
  But I think Miami will claim a very narrow win.
• Kansas at #15 Oklahoma State, 3 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Oklahoma State leads this all–time series by two victories, 31–29–3, has won eight of the last nine meetings with the Jayhawks and scored 70 points against Kansas the last time the teams played in Stillwater.
  
  I don't think the Cowboys will score 10 touchdowns on Kansas this time. This year's offense hasn't been that potent — but Kansas' defense has been horrid. It has given up more than 50 points twice this season so it is conceivable that OSU's 44th–ranked offense could come close.
  
  As long as the Cowboys don't get caught looking ahead to the three teams they have to play next — unranked Texas, #5 Baylor and #12 Oklahoma, they should improve to 8–1. I pick Oklahoma State by 10.

---



---

• #16 UCLA at Arizona, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It's probably a longshot, but the Bruins could be playing in the Pac–12 championship game.
  
  They have four games left, and three are against their rivals for the Pac–12 South title — Arizona, #23 Arizona State and Southern Cal. If UCLA sweeps those games (as well as a home game with still–dangerous Washington next week), the Bruins will be playing for the Pac–12 crown.
  
  UCLA leads the all–time series but needed a win last year to snap a five–year losing streak against the Wildcats.
  
  The numbers from this season appear to favor Arizona. The offenses seem evenly matched. Arizona's is 33rd in the nation; UCLA's is 37th. Arizona's defense is ranked 37th; UCLA's is 55th.
  
  But I'm going to go with the team with the big–game experience. I pick UCLA.
• #17 Fresno State at Wyoming, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN Networks: The winner of this game will take the lead in the series.
  
  Neither team has much of a defense so I have to conclude that the better offense will win — and that is clearly Fresno State. Record–setting quarterback Derek Carr directs the sixth–best offense in the nation.
  
  But Wyoming has the ninth–best offense in the land, thanks to quarterback Brett Smith and running back Shaun Wick.
  
  Interesting point — the home team has always won (one game was played at a neutral site and Wyoming won that one). But I predict that trend will end.
  
  I pick Fresno State.
• Houston at #19 UCF, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is a young series — only four games have been played, all since 2005. UCF has never lost to Houston at home.
  
  Folks who watch this game, either at home or in person, will see two of the best quarterbacks in the nation — UCF's Blake Bortles and Houston's John O'Korn. Each has thrown only four interceptions.
  
  Overall, Houston has the more successful offense, but UCF has a much better defense. I think it will be close, but I'll take UCF by a field goal.
• Brigham Young at #21 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It's been a long time since these two teams faced each other — 1980, to be exact.
  
  They met at Wisconsin that year in their first and only encounter, and BYU won.
  
  I'm inclined to think defense will be the decisive factor in this game. Wisconsin's defense is ranked sixth in the nation (BYU's is 51st) and held #4 Ohio State to its lowest score so far this season. It is safe to say the Badgers have been tested.
  
  That's good because BYU's offense (ranked 12th in the land) has bounced back from two early setbacks and led the Cougars to five straight wins, paced by Taysom Hill's 105 rushing yards per game.
  
  As always, Wisconsin has a good running back, too — two of them, in fact: Melvin Gordon (averaging more than 134 yards per game) and James White (who is contributing 100 yards per game).
  
  Clearly, it is reasonable to expect a lot of rushing in this game. Wisconsin's ground game is ranked 10th, and BYU's is ranked 14th.
  
  I think this will be a close game, and BYU could win it, but I'll take Wisconsin by a field goal.

---



---

• #23 Arizona State at Utah, 3 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: The Sun Devils are in a race in the Pac–12 South and need to beat the Utes, who upset Stanford last month and could still be bowl eligible if they get two more victories.
  
  Arizona State has to focus on the task at hand and not get caught looking ahead to its season–ending games with UCLA and in–state rival Arizona.
  
  Statistically, Arizona State has been far better on both sides of the ball than Utah and should win easily. But, of course, Stanford almost certainly thought the same thing before the Cardinal came to Salt Lake City.
  
  Historically, Arizona State leads this series, 18–6, and has won 14 of the last 16 meetings.
  
  My guess is that Arizona State will pad its lead, but the Sun Devils need to be on their toes. This is an upset waiting to happen.
• #24 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's hard to see what the attraction is in this game. Both offenses have been mediocre, and Notre Dame's defense is currently ranked 36th (Pittsburgh's is 33rd).
  
  With the exception of a few gaps, these schools have met nearly every year since 1930, and the Irish have won 15 of the last 19.
  
  I think Notre Dame will win again. It's just hard to imagine how the Irish will do it.
• Kansas State at #25 Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Kansas State got off to a bad start this season — with a loss to North Dakota State — and has staggered to a 4–4 record.
  
  Texas Tech, meanwhile, surged to 7–0 start on the strength of its seventh–rated offense, then lost its last two games to the Oklahoma schools. Obviously, the Red Raiders are hoping to get back on the winning track this weekend, but they can't get caught looking ahead to next week's clash with #5 Baylor.
  
  If the Wildcats are going to be bowl eligible, this would be a good signature win and would leave them needing only one more win with three left to play. With a defense that is ranked 30th, that would be an attainable goal. Otherwise, it could be an uphill climb.
  
  Kansas State won the last time the Wildcats played in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders usually beat KSU at home.
  
  I'll pick Texas Tech to win by a field goal.

Last week: 14–0

Season: 157–29

Hoping for Turmoil at the Top

---

---

Well, conference championship weekend is upon us.

And, being as anti–BCS as I am, I'm still hoping for some upsets that can spark a real debate over who deserves to play for the national title and who doesn't.

Right now, it appears that LSU is the clear choice for one of the slots — but what if LSU loses to Georgia this weekend?

Should Alabama be allowed to play for the national title whether LSU is there or not? Alabama won't play for its conference championship, and 'Bama's coach said, several years ago, that no team that did not play for its conference championship should be allowed to play for a national title.

What if some of the other highly ranked teams should falter this weekend? What if #3 Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma? What if #5 Virginia Tech loses to Clemson? What if the only remaining unbeaten team is Houston and the only remaining one–loss teams are Boise State, Stanford and Alabama, none of which will play for a conference title this weekend?

That's the kind of thing that can make a playoff system more likely in college football.

And that's what I want.

Idle: #2 Alabama, #4 Stanford, #6 Arkansas, #9 USC, #14 South Carolina, #17 Michigan, #20 Nebraska, #23 Penn State, #25 Florida State

Thursday

• #22 West Virginia at USF, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The home team wins this game two–thirds of the time – literally.
  
  They've played each other six times, three times at each school, and the home teams have won two of the three.
  
  I'm inclined to think the home team will prevail again. Give me USF — by a point or two.

Friday

• UCLA at #8 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Historically, UCLA has won nearly 61% of its games with Oregon.
  
  But recent history has favored the Ducks. Although the schools didn't face each other during the regular season this year, Oregon has a three–game winning streak against UCLA, and the Ducks have beaten the Bruins in eight of the 10 games they have played since 2000.
  
  Even more recently, Oregon beat USC, 38–35, on Nov. 19. The following week, USC blanked UCLA, 50–0.
  
  If USC wasn't on a suspension from postseason activity, the Trojans would be playing Oregon for the Pac–12 title in a rematch of their Nov. 19 thriller. And that would be a game worth watching.
  
  But UCLA finished second in that division and took the championship game berth in USC's place.
  
  I expect Oregon to win by at least four touchdowns. If UCLA keeps the deficit below that, that will be the upset.

Saturday

• #12 Georgia vs. #1 LSU at Atlanta, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This will be the third time in the last decade that these teams have played for the SEC championship.
  
  That series is currently tied, 1–1.
  
  Historically, LSU holds a three–game edge in its series with Georgia, 15–12–1, but in the last 20 years, it is Georgia that holds a three game advantage, 6–3 (including the conference championship games).
  
  And I think Georgia is capable of giving LSU a pretty good run this time. After all, the Bulldogs' offense is 34th in the country, but it's hard to see how it can be too productive against the second–best defense in the land.
  
  When LSU has the ball, it is hard to see how its 62nd–ranked offense can be very imposing — and Georgia's fifth–ranked defense seems well prepared for the task of stopping it.
  
  It's just plain hard to give Georgia the benefit of the doubt on anything.
  
  LSU has been facing top–notch teams all year, teams that are still ranked as the season draws to a close — Oregon, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas — and has beaten all comers.
  
  Georgia, on the other hand, faced none of those teams. Its two early losses were to teams that were and remain ranked, but it didn't play any of the SEC West's Big Three — LSU, Alabama or Arkansas — during the regular season.
  
  You can make a convincing argument that Georgia hasn't really been challenged since mid–September. I guess I'm suceptible to that because I'm so anti–BCS and would love to see anything that hastens its demise.
  
  Georgia is a double–digit underdog in this game, but I'm still going to pick Georgia — albeit hopefully — in a conference championship weekend upset special.


• #13 Oklahoma at #3 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 100th meeting between these schools, but victories for Oklahoma State have been, to put it mildly, rare.
  
  Currently, OU owns an eight–game winning streak in the series — which looks impressive to people outside Oklahoma.
  
  Speaking as someone who lived in Oklahoma for four years, I can tell you that the current winning streak is dwarfed by others in the series. Between 1967 and 1991, Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State in every year but one (1976). From 1946 to 1964, the Sooners won every encounter — 19 in all.
  
  Most people seem to be picking OSU to win this game, and it isn't hard to see why. The Cowboys are ranked third in the country in offense, and they've been getting a lot of publicity for it — but OU's offense is just as good, ranked fourth in the nation.
  
  Since there is practically no difference between the two in total offense, the key may be in total defense — and that is really no contest, even though the defenses are not nearly as spectacular as the offenses. Oklahoma's defense is a modest #52 in the country while OSU's doesn't even crack the Top 100.
  
  I pick Oklahoma.


• #5 Virginia Tech vs. #21 Clemson at Charlotte, N.C., 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: You couldn't tell it from their last five meetings, but this series once belonged to Clemson.
  
  It's been a sporadic series. They met two or three times a decade — at best — from the turn of the 20th century until the 1980s — and they have only played twice as conference rivals.
  
  On Saturday, they will play for the ACC title — and it just might be the most entertaining game of the day.
  
  Clemson hasn't beaten Virginia Tech since 1989 — and I'm not inclined to think that will change.
  
  Clemson has a narrow edge on offense. The Tigers are 29th in the country while the Hokies are 36th. Tech has a clear edge on defense, ranked 12th while Clemson is 63rd.
  
  They say defense wins championships so I guess this is Tech's opportunity to prove it. If my other predictions hold up, a win in this game could put Virginia Tech in the national championship game.
  
  Whether it does or not, though, I'm still picking Virginia Tech by nine points.


• #24 Southern Miss at #7 Houston, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: It's probably a bit of a stretch to see Houston playing in the national championship game — even if the Cougars beat Southern Miss and remain undefeated.
  
  Chances are that the folks who attend the game — or watch it on TV — will be treated to quite a show. Houston has the nation's top–ranked offense, but Southern Miss' offense is pretty explosive, too. It is ranked 15th in the country.
  
  Once again, I am reminded of the old adage that defense wins championships because Southern Miss turns the tables on Houston on the defensive side of the ball. Southern Miss has the country's 26th–best defense while Houston's defense is rather pedestrian, ranked 60th in the land.
  
  The game is for the Conference USA championship — the second time these teams have played for the conference title. Houston won the first time, and I expect Houston, with its potent offense, to win this time, too.


• New Mexico at #9 Boise State, 5 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn.: There really is no reason to expect much from New Mexico in this game.
  
  These teams have only played twice before, in 1999 and 2000, and Boise State won both times. This season, Boise State has been much better on both sides of the ball than New Mexico.
  
  I expect Boise State to absolutely hammer New Mexico.


• #15 Wisconsin vs. #11 Michigan State at Indianapolis, 7 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Since 2003, the home team has won this game — including the time the two played earlier this season in Lansing, Mich. The Spartans won that game, 37–31.
  
  This will be the 50th time these teams have played. As the Big Ten title game, it is being played in the neutral site of Indianapolis so home field track records aren't terribly relevant. Wisconsin was the winner the only other time the teams played on a neutral field — in December 1993 when the teams played in the Coca–Cola Classic in Tokyo.
  
  That offers little insight, though. Certainly, the game played earlier in Michigan provides more — except that the score didn't reflect reality. Both teams have Top 10 defenses. Michigan State's is third in the country, Wisconsin's is seventh.
  
  Wisconsin's offense is pretty good, too, ranked 12th in the country while MSU's is, by comparison, rather dismal. It is ranked 64th.
  
  I pick Wisconsin to win the rematch.


• Iowa State at #16 Kansas State, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on FSN: The history of this series has been that the home team usually wins it.
  
  But this hasn't been a typical season at Iowa State. It looked like it might be when ISU got off to a 3–4 start with three narrow non–conference wins followed by four straight conference losses. But then — inexplicably — Iowa State got hot and reeled off three straight wins, including a double–overtime thriller against Oklahoma State.
  
  Now 6–5, the Cyclones appear headed to their seventh bowl since 2000. That's pretty impressive when you consider that Iowa State played in no bowl games from 1979 to 1999.
  
  Meanwhile, Kansas State is enjoying the kind of recognition it has rarely seen since the dawn of the 21st century. But the 9–2 Wildcats were unable to defeat Oklahoma State when they had their opportunity.
  
  I got the feeling, as I watched parts of Iowa State's game with Oklahoma last week, that ISU is running out of gas. The numbers say ISU has the better offense and KSU has the better defense.
  
  Can't win if you don't score, but scoring hasn't been a problem for Iowa State in recent years. Scoring more than K–State, though, has been another matter, and I think ISU will come up just short this time, the way it has tended to do in recent years.
  
  Kansas State by a touchdown.


• UNLV at #18 TCU, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: Unless you are a TCU fan, I can't think of a reason for a college football enthusiast to watch this game.
  
  UNLV, 1–10, simply doesn't appear capable of beating TCU, 9–2. TCU is light years ahead of UNLV on both offense and defense.
  
  And there isn't really any hope to be found in the series record. TCU is 8–1 all time against UNLV and enjoys a seven–game winning streak (UNLV's only win came in 1997).
  
  As TCU departs for the Big 12 next season, the Frogs should be leaving the Mountain West on a winning note. TCU is the clear choice in this one.


• Texas at #19 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: If you grew up in the old Southwest Conference (as I did) — or even if your memory only includes the Big 12 in the post–SWC era — it is not strange to see these teams play each other.
  
  They've been playing since 1903, when they first met in the neutral site of San Antonio. Texas won that first encounter, 48–0. In what may have been an indication of the futility of the Bears' efforts in this series, Texas shut out Baylor in their next two meetings as well.
  
  In fact, the Longhorns either shut out the Bears or held them to less than 10 points in all but one of their first 10 games. Meanwhile, Texas scored at least 11 points (and, often, much more than that) in all but one of those games — the exception was the only one Texas didn't win (a 6–6 tie).
  
  That has been the history of this series, which will be renewed for the 100th time on Saturday. Baylor usually struggles to score — and win — no matter where they play. The Longhorns have been a little more successful at home than in Waco, where they play this year, but even on the Bears' home field, Texas has won about two–thirds of the time.
  
  And the Longhorns have won their last six games in Waco. Baylor hasn't beaten Texas there since 1997.
  
  As I say, it isn't strange for these teams to play each other. Nor is it strange for one of the teams to be ranked. But the ranked team has almost always been Texas, not Baylor.
  
  The main attraction in this game has to be those times when Baylor has the ball. The Bears' offense, led by Robert Griffin III, and the Longhorns' defense are both in the Top 10.
  
  Texas has a mediocre offense, but it should be able to handle Baylor's defense, which is one of the worst in the country.
  
  Frankly, I'd love to see Baylor win. Combined with the Bears' win in Austin last year, that would give Baylor a rare winning streak against Texas. How rare is it? Well, Baylor has had a couple of two–game winning streaks against Texas in my lifetime, one more during my parents' lifetimes and one more during my grandparents' lifetimes.
  
  The Bears have never won more than two in a row against Texas.
  
  But I just can't shake the feeling that Baylor will be undone by its defense. I pick Texas to win.

Last week: 15–1

Season: 204–51

College Football's Feast of Rivalries

---

---

I've been following college football for a long time now, and I can't think of a time when there was as much uncertainty — spoken and unspoken — on as many fronts as there is today.

On perhaps the most minimal level, college football fans are quite familiar with not really knowing which teams will play for the national title — and that certainly appears to be the case this year. It is generally assumed that top–ranked LSU will be one of the teams invited to play for the BCS' mythical crown, but the Tigers still have to get past my alma mater, the University of Arkansas, on Friday afternoon — and then the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game the next weekend.

Neither assignment will be easy.

As the Arkansas–LSU game is on this week's Top 25 schedule, I will discuss it — and why I think it is more than possible that LSU will lose — a bit later. But, if LSU wins and goes on to play Georgia, it's worth remembering that those teams have faced each other in the SEC Championship twice — and each team won one (by almost identical scores, too).

It won't be easy for LSU to beat Georgia.

The currently 9–2 Bulldogs have their traditional season–ending game with Georgia Tech this week, and there is a severe price to be paid if one overlooks that rivalry, but I'm sure the Bulldogs will endeavor to ration their emotion, knowing that one of three teams — LSU, Alabama or Arkansas — will be waiting for them in Atlanta next week.

What a story it would be if Georgia coach Mark Richt — virtually given up for dead after an 0–2 start — could win the SEC title and end the national title hopes of one of those three schools — because the winner of the SEC West is sure to be entertaining those thoughts next week.

The Bulldogs will be grateful just to be there and are sure to be the underdog, no matter which SEC West team they face (and, as Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated observed, rarely has a single conference — let alone a division within a conference — been so well represented at the top of the national polls).

Consequently, all eyes this week will be on the two big games in the SEC West, Arkansas–LSU and Alabama–Auburn. Ironically, the only team of the four who cannot fantasize about winning a national title is Auburn — last year's national champion.

Without Cam Newton, the Tigers have been reduced to mere mortal status — but that doesn't mean they aren't capable of pulling off an upset.

So Auburn gets its chance to upset the apple cart this week, then it will be Georgia's turn.

Well, that's what could happen on the SEC's side. It is likely that one of the teams in the national title game will be from the SEC — but probably not if Georgia wins in Atlanta next week.

There still would be the matter of which team would face LSU, Alabama or Arkansas. Will it be Stanford? Oklahoma State? Virginia Tech? How about Boise State? Or undefeated Houston? There are several potential upsets out there, too — Notre Dame might well knock off Stanford; Virginia could surprise Virginia Tech; who knows what else might happen?

It's the point in the schedule that is loaded with traditional rivalries, and those are a different breed. Records don't matter too much.

Being as anti–BCS as I am, of course, I am openly pulling for any chaos that will erupt — except where my alma mater is concerned! If the system works in the Razorbacks' favor, I will tolerate it. But, in general — and on principle — I think that, the sooner college football goes to a real playoff system, the better.

Let it be decided on the field — like the games in Waco, Los Angeles and Ames last week.

Idle: #5 Oklahoma State, #16 Kansas State, #19 TCU

Friday

• #3 Arkansas at #1 LSU, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Most teams would probably be intimidated by LSU but not Arkansas.
  
  The Razorbacks have beaten LSU in three of the last four years — including a triple–overtime thriller in Baton Rouge in 2007, the last time LSU won a national championship.
  
  I can certainly see why the casual viewer would be inclined to think that LSU will win. The Tigers are ranked second in the nation in defense — and I've been hearing the adage "Defense wins championships" all my life.
  
  I guess this will be a good test. The Razorbacks have a far better offense than LSU's. In fact, Arkansas' offense (ranked #21 in the nation) has been consistently better than any other offense in the Southeastern Conference.
  
  Arkansas also has been dealing with a team tragedy this week. Freshman tight end Garrett Uekman died Sunday, the victim of an undiagnosed heart condition. On the day after Thanksgiving, I'm betting that his teammates will dedicate their game with LSU to him — and Arkansas will win in an upset.


• #8 Houston at Tulsa, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: There have been some outrageous scores in this series, almost always on Houston's side.
  
  Probably the single most outrageous score was the day in 1968 when the Cougars ran up 100 points at home against a hapless Tulsa squad, but a couple of years earlier Houston tallied 73 points on Tulsa. In 1988, Houston registered 82 points and then scored 70 points in their 2008 meeting.
  
  Sometimes the scores are just wild on both sides. The last time these teams played in Tulsa, Houston won, 46–45. (The time before that, Tulsa won, 56–7.)
  
  I don't know if football fans are in for another wild score this time, but I do know, as do most college football fans, that Houston has one of the most potent offenses in America. What a lot of people don't know is that Tulsa has a pretty good offense, too (currently ranked 19th in the nation).
  
  I expect Houston to win — but it will be a lot closer than many people expect.


• Iowa at #22 Nebraska, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This has been Nebraska's first season as a member of the Big Ten and many of the Cornhuskers' conference games have been their first — or nearly their first — with various teams.
  
  But Iowa is a familiar foe — historically. This will be the 31st time the teams have met, but it will be their first game in more than 10 years and only the seventh time they have played since 1979.
  
  Half of the games were played in the 1930s and 1940s — so the outcomes of those games don't really mean much in the 21st century.
  
  But, no matter which decade or era is being discussed, Nebraska has generally dominated Iowa. Overall, the Cornhuskers have won 70% of their games with the Hawkeyes — and 83% of the games played since 1979.
  
  The fact that the game is being played in Lincoln probably works in Nebraska's favor, too, but I don't think the weather will be a factor. Current forecasts for Friday are calling for midday temperatures in the upper 40s or lower 50s in Nebraska — roughly the same as the forecast for Iowa.
  
  I expect Nebraska, with a slight advantage on offense and a more decisive one on defense, to beat the Hawkeyes by about 10 points.

Saturday

---

---

• #2 Alabama at Auburn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: As it has so often before, the "Iron Bowl" appears destined to play a key role in the national championship race.
  
  Until 1998, this game was almost always played in the neutral city of Birmingham, but every game since then has been played at Auburn or Tuscaloosa. I guess that's been good news for Auburn. The Tigers have winning records on both campuses; the Crimson Tide won nearly two–thirds of the games played in Birmingham so they lead the overall series.
  
  As an Arkansas graduate, I would love nothing more than to see the Razorbacks win on Friday and the Crimson Tide lose on Saturday — because that combination would put Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game next week.
  
  And I do believe, as I wrote earlier, that Arkansas will beat LSU — but Alabama has such a ferocious defense. It's the best in the country, and it was pretty good last year, too — and, without Cam Newton to engineer a comeback (dubbed "The Camback") this year, I don't see how the Crimson Tide can be denied.
  
  I pick Alabama — reluctantly.


• #22 Notre Dame at #4 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This series began in the mid–1920s, when Notre Dame's famed "Four Horsemen," coached by Knute Rockne, defeated Stanford and Pop Warner in the Rose Bowl.
  
  The teams played a few times after that, but the series really didn't become an annual event (not even annual, really) until 1988.
  
  Overall, Notre Dame has won 68% of the games it has played with Stanford, and the Irish won seven in a row against weak–to–mediocre Stanford teams between 2001 and 2008, but the Cardinal has won the last two.
  
  These days, when people think of Stanford's football team, they probably think of quarterback Andrew Luck, and it is true that he is a major reason why Stanford's offense is 10th in the country. But the Irish have been quietly compiling some pretty impressive offensive numbers of their own; they're currently ranked 33rd in the country.
  
  Neither team has been too shabby on the defensive side of the ball, either, and there is virtually no difference between them. Stanford is ranked 24th in the nation, Notre Dame is ranked 28th.
  
  Unless Luck is injured in what seems increasingly likely to be his final home game, I think Stanford will win the game and extend its streak against Notre Dame to three in a row.


• #6 Virginia Tech at #24 Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I'm sure it is no exaggeration to say that probably few people expected the Cavaliers to be playing for the division crown.
  
  But there was really no reason to think that Virginia would get its improbable win over the Seminoles — without which the Coastal Division race would be over and the Cavaliers would enter this game with nothing other than in–state pride going for them.
  
  However, that one–point win over Florida State has put the Cavaliers a victory over Tech away from the ACC Championship Game with Clemson. Virginia didn't play Clemson, but Virginia Tech did. It was the only game the Hokies lost (so far, anyway), and you have to figure that Virginia Tech would like a second shot against the Tigers.
  
  But the Hokies have to take care of business first, and that could be pretty challenging. Tech's numbers have been better than Virginia's on both offense and defense — but not by much — and having an excited home crowd pulling for them could lift the Cavaliers to victory.
  
  But I don't think that will happen. I'll take Virginia Tech by a pair of field goals.


• Wyoming at #7 Boise State, 1 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn.: Wyoming is 0–5 against Boise State.
  
  But the Broncos should be concerned. Wyoming is 7–3 and its only conference blemish is its loss to TCU, who also beat Boise State. Whoever wins will be the runnerup in the conference — and perhaps the recipient of a respectable bowl bid.
  
  There's a lot at stake, but I see no reason to think that Wyoming can do something it has never done before. There can be room for only one of those in a given football season, and Baylor already claimed it last week.
  
  I pick Boise State to beat Wyoming by a wide margin.


• Oregon State at #9 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Known as the "Civil War," this is the seventh–oldest rivalry in America.
  
  It was first played in 1894, and the schools have been playing as Division I rivals since 1916. In 94 meetings since that time, the teams are nearly even (Oregon leads, 45–43–6), and, strangely enough, the visiting team has a slight edge. In games played at Oregon State, Oregon leads 23–18–3. In games played at Oregon, Oregon State leads, 21–20–3. (Six games were played in the "neutral" city of Portland prior to 1952, and Oregon State won four of those).
  
  In recent years, the advantage has belonged to Oregon, winner of three straight and 11 of the 17 games played since 1994. I think that will continue. I pick Oregon by four touchdowns.


• UCLA at #10 Southern Cal, 9 p.m. (Central) on FSN: The rivalry between UCLA and Southern Cal is extremely unusual in American sports because they are not just in–state rivals. They are in–city rivals, with campuses that are, perhaps, 15 miles apart.
  
  Consequently, with more than 65,000 undergraduate students between them, many of whom remain in Los Angeles or southern California after graduation, there is a high likelihood that current students and alumni of both schools will interact on a daily basis, even if no sport is in season.
  
  And that tends to intensify the competition.
  
  It is also intensified on those occasions when the winner is likely, as it has been many times, to win or share the conference championship and represent the conference in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Based on the overall records, USC (9–2) would appear to have the advantage over UCLA (6–5), but that overlooks the fact that nonconference schedules are not created equal. UCLA lost to Houston and Texas in September; USC defeated Minnesota and Syracuse during the same period.
  
  In conference play, both lost to Stanford — UCLA by a far more decisive margin. USC lost to Arizona State; UCLA did not. But UCLA lost to Utah and Arizona — and USC did not.
  
  The recent history of this series strongly favors USC. The Trojans have won all but one of the 12 games played between the schools since 1999.
  
  I'll pick USC by a couple of touchdowns.


• #11 Michigan State at Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: There is a certain symmetry that exists in this series.
  
  Michigan State is 18–6 at home against Northwestern — and 18–6 on the road against Northwestern.
  
  That's a three–fourths victory rate in either place — and that's the Spartans' ratio against Northwestern in the last four games between the schools.
  
  It isn't always that neat, of course. From 1991 to 2006, the series was pretty competitive. MSU won seven times, Northwestern won five.
  
  But the Spartans seem to have been particularly successful on the road against Northwestern, winning eight of their last 10 games in Evanston.
  
  I've seen no compelling reason to pick against the Spartans. I expect Michigan State to win the game.


• Iowa State at #12 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Beware, Sooners. Iowa State just beat your in–state rivals in double overtime and now comes to Norman looking for more Okie blood.
  
  As much of an upset as Iowa State's victory over Oklahoma State was, though, a triumph over OU would have to be even more shocking.
  
  Oklahoma has won 12 straight against Iowa State and has lost only once to the Cyclones in the last 50 years.
  
  In a series that goes back to the 1920s, Iowa State has won less than 10% of the time, so there aren't too many bright spots for the Cyclones. But if you really want something to hang your hat on, the two most recent Iowa State victories over Oklahoma came in Norman — in 1961 and 1990. So, too, did their 7–7 tie in 1981.
  
  And those are all the games with Iowa State that Oklahoma did not win in the last half century. The Sooners are unblemished in the 21st century, and I expect it to stay that way. Oklahoma should win.


• #13 Georgia at #25 Georgia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Ever notice how the nicknames that are given to many rivalries tend to be sort of politically correct in their tone? I mean, they reflect the general nature of a rivalry, but not the true spirit.
  
  In that context, the Georgia–Georgia Tech rivalry is almost a breath of fresh air in its honesty — it is known as "Clean, Old–Fashioned Hate."
  
  Each side has something to hate about the other, and, based on the numbers, the very best that each team has to offer will be on the field at the same time. The numbers say that Georgia Tech has the better offense and that Georgia has the better defense.
  
  All else being equal, I tend to lean to the stronger defense. And that is what I'm doing in this one. I'll go with Georgia.


• #18 Clemson at #14 South Carolina, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Roughly 130 miles separate the two campuses. It was only natural that they would become rivals.
  
  The rivalry between the schools goes back to the 19th century. The rivalry between the football teams goes back to the turn of the century.
  
  Most of the football games have been played at South Carolina, but Clemson has won more than 60% of the time in spite of having to be the visiting team on most occasions. In recent years, however, the Gamecocks have held the upper hand, winning three of the last five contests.
  
  South Carolina's defense is fifth in the country (compared to Clemson's rather ordinary defensive unit) — and should be tested by Clemson's 18th–ranked offense (South Carolina's offense has really struggled).
  
  Once again, I will go with the stronger defense and pick South Carolina to win by a touchdown.


• #20 Penn State at #15 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Since these teams became Big Ten rivals in the 1990s, they have played in Wisconsin six times, and each team has won three.
  
  Thus, the winner of Saturday's game will take the lead in their conference series in Madison. More than that, the winner will advance to the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.
  
  In those previous six games, though, Joe Paterno was on the sidelines. This will be the 15th time the schools have played each other in football but only the second time that Paterno hasn't been part of it.
  
  We're still in the early stages of the post–JoePa era, and I'm sure there will be lots of stories like that in the next year or two.
  
  By next fall, the returning Nittany Lions will have had nearly a year to adjust to the new reality. But it's all still new to them, and I don't think they're able, at this point, to compartmentalize the way they need to do to rise to the occasion against the Badgers.
  
  I think Wisconsin will win.


• Ohio State at #17 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Nearly 12 years ago, ESPN said this was the greatest of all sports rivalries.
  
  There are others I would have included on ESPN's list, but, when I was a child, the Ohio State–Michigan game was more than a football game. It was an event.
  
  It isn't that way anymore. Oh, usually one team, maybe both, will be ranked, which makes it interesting, but when I was growing up, both teams were usually in the Top 10 — and the winner of their game almost always went to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl.
  
  Michigan can grab a share of the Leaders Division championship but, because the Wolverines lost to Michigan State earlier this season, cannot play for the Big Ten crown.
  
  They can, however, play for pride and bragging rights — and to snap a seven–game losing streak in the series. I think Michigan will win the game — by a touchdown.


• #21 Baylor vs. Texas Tech at Arlington, Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: When you've just beaten the Oklahoma Sooners for the first time in school history, what do you do for an encore?
  
  For Baylor, I suppose, a fitting finale would be to defeat the other team that beat Oklahoma this year (except the Bears still have a game to play against Texas on Dec. 3).
  
  The Red Raiders have played the Bears more often than any other team. Theirs is a series that began long before the teams became Southwest Conference rivals.
  
  Tech has won 15 straight, including the last two, which have been played in Dallas and Arlington. History suggests the Bears would have been better off keeping the home–and–away arrangement. Even though they have lost every game played since 1996, they do have a winning record against Tech in Waco.
  
  Tech needs to have history on its side, though, because the Red Raiders haven't had much else this season. They've lost six of their last season (with the exception being their win in Norman — go figure) while Baylor is riding a three–game winning streak.
  
  I can see in which directions these teams are headed, and I pick Baylor by four points.

Last week: 15–7

Season: 189–50

BCS Chaos

---

---

I have made no secret of my distaste for the so–called Bowl Championship Series — or BCS — that is supposed to match the two best college football teams in a national championship game at season's end, even though neither team must earn its spot in a playoff system.

Unless one or both must play in a conference championship game.

But no champions from other conferences must be conquered to reach the national title game. Only the pollsters and computers must be persuaded of the teams' worthiness — and they need not be familiar with the teams they choose.

In fact, there probably are coaches who vote in their poll or sports writers who vote in their poll who have had little, if any, exposure to the teams that ultimately are anointed to play for all the marbles.

That is my greatest gripe about the BCS system, I suppose.

Let's assume, if only for a minute, that LSU wins the SEC championship game against Georgia. A case can be made that the participants in that game earned their berths on the field — and, since the championship game will be played on a day when there will be very few other college football games, it is logical to assume that most, if not all, of the coaches who participate in their poll and the sports writers who participate in their poll will see the game.

But week in and week out, how many coaches do you suppose take time out from their own game preparation responsibilities to familiarize themselves with three or four dozen college teams by watching tape of and/or reading articles about them?

For that matter, how many sports writers take time from their coverage of local or regional programs to view the tapes and read the articles relating to those same three or four dozen college teams from around the country?

Probably few in either instance.

But, like lemmings allegedly committing mass suicide when they migrate, they follow the group. What may have begun as the perception of a few becomes a self–fulfilling prophecy.

Unless fate intervenes.

Fate intervened this weekend.

LSU, the top–ranked team in the nation, almost surely will remain where it was when the weekend began.

But #2 Oklahoma State as certainly will drop after its double–overtime loss to Iowa State on Friday night — a development that was doubly shocking. The Cowboys were expected to whip the Cyclones, even before the news reached the team that the OSU women's basketball coach and one of his assistants were killed in an airplane crash in central Arkansas.

News of the tragedy was expected to serve as even more motivation for the Cowboys — but it didn't.

They were stunned, I guess — or maybe they were simply lethargic. Their big showdown with Oklahoma is two weeks away — and the Cowboys have next week off. How could 10–0 Oklahoma State, with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State, get excited about playing 5–4 Iowa State?

Whatever it was, the Cowboys lost the game.

Folks were still absorbing that news when a couple of other bombshells were dropped on the Top 10.

First, the other Oklahoma school went down in spectacular fashion. The once–beaten Sooners faced Baylor University, a team that had never beaten Oklahoma in 19 previous attempts. In fact, it had been more than a decade since Baylor even came within two touchdowns of OU.

But, on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, the Bears beat the fifth–ranked Sooners — pretty convincingly, too.

And, as that equally shocking development was playing out in the heart of Texas, there was even more.

Fourth–ranked Oregon was losing its second game of the season. The Ducks' first defeat was way back at the beginning of the season in a Labor Day weekend clash with LSU. Oregon had been craving a rematch in the national championship game, but the loss to 18th–ranked Southern California undoubtedly put an end to any such hopes.

It can be argued, for that matter, that Oklahoma is also out of the national championship conversation. And, although they have only one loss, that one loss — to a six–win team — is probably too devastating for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to overcome.

Well, I've been saying it would take a state of utter chaos to build momentum for the implementation of a playoff system — and we may be witnessing the start of such a state.

But I want it to go beyond what has happened this weekend.

On Friday, my alma mater, the University of Arkansas (ranked sixth when the weekend began and certain to move up in the rankings later today following a 44–17 victory over Mississippi State yesterday) will travel to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Baton Rouge can be a scary place for most football teams — but not necessarily for Arkansas.

Sure, the Razorbacks are 1–4 in Baton Rouge since 2001, but all but one of those games were decided by three points or less. And the Razorbacks have won three of their last four games against the Tigers.

Another victory is not out of the question — and it could propel the Razorbacks into the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Especially if Auburn upends currently second–ranked Alabama in Saturday's Iron Bowl. If you're scoffing at that notion, let me remind you that Alabama–Auburn is a rivalry of long standing — and rivalries like that operate in spheres of their own.

There are other things that could happen in other games to change the dynamics of the BCS and make more college football fans think about the system that currently chooses the national champion and how it compares to a legitimate playoff system.

Undoubtedly, those things will be evident later today when the latest polls come out and then tonight when the latest BCS standings are released.

In the end, LSU may well be the only unbeaten team standing and may be the unquestionable choice to be national champion.

But I'm still pulling for chaos, and if what happened on Friday and Saturday is the beginning of revolutionary chaos, then all I can say is ...

Let the revolution begin.

But, for now, I am pleased.

Nearing the Finish Line ...

---

Sunday will be the 29th anniversary of what may be
the most amazing finish in the history of the Big Game.

---

After major showdowns in the SEC and Pac–12 the last couple of weeks, this week seems sort of like the lull before the next storm.

Some of the more significant late–season games will be coming up next week — on Thanksgiving and the weekend that follows.

Texas–Texas A&M may not have the kind of national implications it has had in the past, but it may well be the last meeting between these two old rivals and will certainly draw a sizable TV audience on Thanksgiving night.

Then, the next day, LSU will host Arkansas, and Alabama will meet Auburn on Saturday.

Like the UT–A&M game, next weekend's rivalry clashes between the likes of Florida and Florida State and USC and UCLA won't necessarily mean much to the rankings, but they have a lot of significance for the students and fans of those schools.

Then, the following weekend, all eyes will be on Oklahoma–Oklahoma State. Whatever happens between Alabama and Auburn, football fans will still be curious to know if OSU can remain unbeaten or if the Sooners can upend the Cowboys and sneak into the national championship game (and, incidentally, Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated says OU has a better chance of being in the national title game than Alabama).

There should be several intriguing story lines in college football in the next few weeks.

I've made no secret of the fact that I'm no fan of the BCS. I'd like to see college football go to a real playoff system, perhaps incorporating the existing bowls as the sites for the championship, the semifinal rounds and, possibly, quarterfinal rounds — on a rotating basis.

But, if such a thing is going to happen, we're going to need a season or two of virtually complete chaos. That's going to require inconclusive regular seasons followed by equally inconclusive conference championship games, producing several legitimate prospects for the two national championship berths, not merely three or four.

Ideally, I suppose, we need about half a dozen one–loss teams. Really, the more the better, but it seems to me that it's going to take half a dozen at least to loosen the exclusive grip the BCS has on NCAA football. The grip won't be broken in one season, and the BCS has frequently been criticized when three or more teams could make plausible arguments for being allowed to play for a national title.

This season probably won't produce the kind of chaos that is needed to prompt a wholesale reform of the system, but football fans who want to see the NCAA go to a real playoff system can always hope, right up until the final whistle of the championship game itself, that the kind of chaos that is needed will happen.

As I say, that kind of chaos probably won't happen this year. But, if it's going to happen at all, it might as well start to happen this year. And this weekend is as good a weekend as any.

Thursday

• #22 Southern Miss at UAB, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This series has been exclusively the product of the 21st century — but, until two years ago, it was traditionally lopsided.
  
  Southern Miss went 9–0 against UAB from 2000 to 2008, but UAB has won the last two meetings — all of which means precisely nothing, I suppose.
  
  Except in terms of momentum and confidence — not to mention the fact that Southern Miss (9–1) is ranked in the Top 25 and UAB is 2–8.
  
  I think Southern Miss will win by three touchdowns.


• #9 Virginia Tech at North Carolina, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically, Virginia Tech has dominated this series — although the series was dormant for nearly half a century.
  
  In the first half of the 20th century, the schools met regularly on the gridiron. But then they fought to a tie for the only time at North Carolina — and didn't play again until the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day 1998.
  
  They became conference rivals in 2004 and have been playing each other ever since. Virginia Tech is 6–1 in that time — a much higher winning percentage than the Hokies have compiled against the Tar Heels since their first meeting way back in 1902.
  
  One of these days, North Carolina will beat Virginia Tech. But not this time. I pick Virginia Tech by 10 points.

Friday

• #2 Oklahoma State at Iowa State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Historically, OSU would prefer to be playing this game in Stillwater, where the Cowboys have a 14–6–2 advantage.
  
  Since 1991, Iowa State is 4–2–1 at home against Oklahoma State.
  
  But this is Oklahoma State, 2011 edition, we're talking about. The Cowboys are averaging more than 50 points a game. Iowa State, meanwhile, has been averaging less than half that.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State to win by three touchdowns — at least — in the Cowboys' warmup for their in–state grudge match with Oklahoma.

Saturday

• #1 LSU at Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I've been saying all along that I am not sold on LSU — and, in spite of everything that has happened, I am still not sold on the Tigers. Not yet. If they beat my Razorbacks next week, I'll concede the point. But until then ...
  
  It is beyond dispute, though, that, in last weekend's Associated Press poll, LSU became the first unanimous #1 during the regular season since 2008.
  
  The Tigers didn't necessarily distinguish themselves by beating Western Kentucky last week. Nor will they distinguish themselves when they beat the hapless Ole Miss Rebels this weekend — which they will.
  
  To suggest otherwise would be ludicrous. Ole Miss has lost 12 consecutive SEC games. Just last week, the Rebels were blown out (27–7) at home by Louisiana Tech last week. LSU, meanwhile, is 11–2 in the SEC in the last two years. The Tigers avenged one of last season's losses — to Auburn — earlier this season, and they will have the opportunity to avenge the other one — to Arkansas — next week.
  
  As long as they don't take their eyes off the ball.
  
  I don't think they will. I expect LSU to win.


• Georgia Southern at #3 Alabama: To the casual observer, Georgia Southern may not seem like a worthy foe for a team that was considered a potential national champion only a couple of weeks ago.
  
  But, as Lee Corso would say, not so fast, my friend.
  
  Sure, Tuscaloosa is a tough place for a visiting team to play. I've said that before. But Georgia Southern brings a 9–1 record to this game — same as the Crimson Tide.
  
  Well, Alabama plays a tougher schedule, you may say — and that is undoubtedly true. In just their SEC division alone, the Tide must face LSU, Arkansas and Auburn every year — as well as Mississippi State and Ole Miss and, presumably, the Texas A&M Aggies when they join the conference next year.
  
  I do believe Alabama will win the game — but it might not be quite as easy as some people think.


• #18 USC at #4 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, Southern Cal has the advantage in this series, but there are a couple of points in Oregon's favor.
  
  The series has been much closer when the games have been played in Oregon. The Trojans have a slight edge overall (12–11–1), but the Ducks are 3–2 there in the last 10 years. That's better than the record in Los Angeles, where the Trojans have won nearly four–fifths of the time.
  
  What's more, Oregon has beaten USC the last two times the teams have played in Eugene.
  
  Oregon also has the additional motivation of possibly being back in the national championship game in January — if all the chips fall just so. That would, include, of course, some apparently improbable turns of events — but you really never know what's going to happen in a football game.
  
  I don't know what will happen in this game — but I think I have an idea. I'll pick Oregon to win.


• #5 Oklahoma at #25 Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 20th time these teams have faced each other in football, and Baylor is still looking for its first victory over the Sooners.
  
  It hasn't been uncommon for Oklahoma to be ranked when the Sooners and the Bears have played, especially since the dawning of the 21st century, but rarely — if ever — has Baylor been ranked. That alone makes this game special, I suppose.
  
  It won't make it exceptional, though. I expect Oklahoma to win handily.


• Mississippi State at #6 Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Mississippi State has never beaten the Razorbacks inside the state borders of Arkansas. The closest the Bulldogs have come to a victory was in 1993, when they fought to a 13–13 tie in Little Rock's War Memorial Stadium.
  
  It's not possible for a college football game to end in a tie anymore, and I don't think Mississippi State will win this time, but I think it might be closer than a lot of people probably expect. I'll take Arkansas by 10 points.


• #7 Clemson at North Carolina State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These schools have played each other nearly 80 times (annually since 1971), and Clemson has a winning record over N.C. State wherever they have played — including games that were played at the neutral site of Charlotte, N.C.
  
  N.C. State is a respectable 5–5 and may well be motivated by the knowledge that all NCSU needs to get a bowl bid is one more win — but that win seems much more likely to come against 2–8 Maryland next week than against 9–1 Clemson this week.
  
  I pick Clemson in what could be a very close game.


• California at #8 Stanford, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I think this edition of "The Big Game" could be a lot better than the rankings might suggest. After all, 6–4 Cal has the nation's 16th–best defense — far and away the best Stanford has faced.
  
  What's more, the Bears aren't likely to be intimidated by the Stanford crowd. They're 3–1 at Stanford since 2003.
  
  But, with the exception of last week's loss to Oregon, this seems to be Andrew Luck's year so I pick Stanford to win the game.


• #10 Boise State at San Diego State, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This is the first time these teams have met.
  
  Boise State, of course, is still smarting from its loss to TCU last week, and 6–3 San Diego State appears to have the tools to hand Boise its second consecutive regular–season loss — which is an experience the Broncos haven't had since September 2005.
  
  But the Broncos have the 15th–best offense in the country and the 20th–best defense. San Diego State is 45th and 55th, respectively. They play in the same conference so their numbers have been compiled against roughly the same opponents — the Broncos have just done better than the Aztecs.
  
  For example, last weekend San Diego State barely got past Colorado State, 18–15. Boise State thumped that same CSU team a month ago, 63–13.
  
  There have been some bright spots for the Aztecs. Their margin of victory over Air Force was slightly higher than Boise's; SDSU won by 14, Boise won by 11. And they both lost to TCU, although SDSU went down by 13 while Boise got edged by a single point.
  
  I'll go with Boise State by a couple of touchdowns.


• SMU at #11 Houston, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Houston has won five in a row against SMU and eight of nine since 1994.
  
  This was something of a rivalry in the last couple of decades of the old Southwest Conference when both schools were contenders — albeit in different seasons — for the national title. SMU had been a member of the SWC since 1918, but Houston didn't join until nearly 60 years later.
  
  As SWC competitors, the schools and their fans just about saw it all in their series — video game–like scores (Houston put 95 points on SMU in 1989), old–fashioned defensive struggles (SMU won a 10–3 decision in 1986, and Houston won a 13–11 game in 1980) — or they thought they did.
  
  Houston has a five–game winning streak against SMU that dates back to 2006. Neither team had ever won more than three in a row against the other before — and now undefeated Houston has a chance to double that achievement with its sixth straight victory.
  
  Like old times, Houston has one of the nation's most prolific offenses, and I expect it to win the day against the Mustangs.


• Indiana at #12 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on the Big Ten Network: Michigan State has every reason to believe the Spartans will win this game. They've beaten the Hoosiers in 16 of the 20 games the teams have played since 1987.
  
  The teams are virtually indistinguishable on offense, but there is a huge gap between Michigan State's third–ranked defense and Indiana's defense, which is ranked 106th.
  
  I'll go with Michigan State.


• Kentucky at #13 Georgia, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: A win over Kentucky will clinch the SEC East for Georgia, and the recent history of this series suggests that it is practically a done deal.
  
  The Bulldogs have won all but two of the last 14 games between the schools — and, in true SEC fashion, Georgia has a decided advantage on defense. But Georgia also has a clear edge on offense.
  
  The bad news for the Bulldogs, though, is that Kentucky was the winner the last time the teams played in Georgia two years ago.
  
  But that, as they say, was then, and this is now. I expect Georgia to win this game.


• Citadel at #14 South Carolina: This game means nothing in the SEC East race. Citadel isn't even a member of the SEC.
  
  South Carolina, in fact, can have no further influence on the race. The Gamecocks' fate is entirely in the hands of others. If Georgia beats Kentucky, Georgia wins the division. If Georgia loses, South Carolina wins based on holding the head–to–head tiebreaker.
  
  It's been more than 20 years since these teams met on the gridiron — and they never faced each other regularly. No real emotion involved here. Just a bit of a warmup for the postseason.
  
  South Carolina should win with no problem.


• #15 Wisconsin at Illinois, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The home team tends to win when these teams play, which should favor Illinois.
  
  The home team doesn't always win, though. In fact, the home team has failed to win half of the games played since 1995 — and that should favor Wisconsin.
  
  The Badgers have a Top 10 offense — which figures to be tested by Illinois' ninth–ranked defense.
  
  Wisconsin, though, is even better on defense (ranked sixth) — and that is bad news for Illinois (65th in offense).
  
  If the Badgers aren't distracted, I expect Wisconsin to stay on track for its showdown next week with Penn State.


• #16 Kansas State at Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on FX: Texas has beaten KSU two–thirds of the time the Wildcats have traveled to Austin, and none of the numbers — except maybe the rankings — suggest that anything will be different this time.
  
  The Longhorns have been better — albeit marginally so — on offense and defense.
  
  I'll take Texas.


• #17 Nebraska at #20 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the first regular–season game between these two teams since John F. Kennedy was president.
  
  In fact, this will be the seventh time these teams have faced each other, but the first three games were played before the end of World War I.
  
  Their last two meetings were in bowl games — the Fiesta Bowl in January 1986 and the Alamo Bowl in December 1995.
  
  This season, Michigan has been more successful on both offense and defense than Nebraska, and the Wolverines have the advantage of playing before the home crowd.
  
  I'll pick Michigan to win.


• Colorado State at #19 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Colorado State was the winner when these schools met for the first time in 1998.
  
  But TCU won the next seven contests and appears likely to win this one as well.
  
  All the numbers suggest it.
  
  TCU (8–2) has a far better offense and defense than Colorado State (3–6). What's more, CSU hasn't won since September. TCU is coming off a huge victory over Boise State.
  
  Unless the Horned Frogs allow themselves to be distracted by their own success, I expect TCU to win the game.


• #21 Penn State at Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Considering that Penn State narrowly lost to Nebraska after a week of almost incomprehensible distraction, I think the Nittany Lions showed considerable resiliency.
  
  And, even though this week's game is on the road (where Ohio State is 9–6 in its series with Penn State), I have a feeling the Nittany Lions might win. They have a Top 10 defense going against an offense that isn't ranked in the Top 100.
  
  Win or lose, Penn State's postseason fate won't be sealed this Saturday. The Leaders Division will be decided the following weekend, when Penn State and Wisconsin, both currently 8–2, meet in Madison.
  
  If both teams take care of business this weekend, that showdown will guarantee a 10–win season for the victor. And I think Penn State will take care of business against Ohio State.


• Virginia at #23 Florida State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams have played 16 times since 1992, and Virginia has won only twice.
  
  Even more ominously for the Cavaliers, both of those wins came in Virginia. They have never beaten the Seminoles in Florida.
  
  Despite the lopsided nature of the outcomes, though, many of the games have been close. But almost all of those games were played in Charlottesville. The eight games that have been played in Tallahassee have been far more decisive — with the exception of a game played in 1996, Florida State has won every game there by at least 21 points.
  
  In fact, the margin in both of the last two games played in Tallahassee was 33 points.
  
  I don't think it will be quite that lopsided this time. Both teams are 7–3, and Virginia is still in the race for a berth in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers have a season–ending game with Virginia Tech, the team they must overtake to win their division. Holding the head–to–head tiebreaker could do the trick.
  
  The Seminoles, meanwhile, lost to Clemson, the team they trail by a single game in the ACC's Atlantic Division — but, with only one conference game left for each to play, there simply isn't any way for FSU to win it.
  
  Both teams have been pretty good on defense, fairly average on offense. Virginia may have more to play for, but that could work against them, almost distracting them from the task at hand. I think Florida State will play a more stable game and make fewer mistakes.


• Boston College at #24 Notre Dame, 3 p.m. (Central) on NBC: Between 1999 and 2008, Boston College won seven out of eight contests with Notre Dame.
  
  But the last two games have belonged to Notre Dame and I think this one will, too.

Last week: 14–6

Season: 174–43