Wednesday, August 12, 2009

College Football Preseason Rankings

SI.com has posted its college football preseason Top 20, along with its rankings of the the rest of Division 1.

And the results are somewhat predictable.

Before I go any farther, here is the Top 20:
  1. Florida

  2. Texas

  3. Oklahoma

  4. USC

  5. Virginia Tech

  6. Ole Miss

  7. Oklahoma State

  8. Alabama

  9. Boise State

  10. Ohio State

  11. Oregon

  12. Georgia Tech

  13. LSU

  14. Penn State

  15. Georgia

  16. Florida State

  17. TCU

  18. Oregon State

  19. Utah

  20. North Carolina
Now, these rankings aren't entirely predictable. Just certain parts.

And when I say they are predictable, I mean in a hindsight sort of way. Florida, for example, won the national championship last year. And 15 of the other teams in SI.com's Top 20 finished in the Top 20 of last year's final AP Poll. For that matter, the same 16 teams finished in the Top 20 of the USA Today Coaches' Poll. And 14 of these teams were in the Top 20 of the Harris Interactive Poll.

But back to Florida. The Gators also won the national title in 2006. And their quarterback, Tim Tebow, is back for his senior season.

Picking Florida to finish first is not exactly going out on a limb.

Actually, it isn't much of a gamble to pick Texas and Oklahoma for the second and third spots, either. Both programs struggled in the 1990s, but they seem to be back on track. OU won the national title in 2000, Texas won the national title in 2005. And both have been contenders throughout the decade.

Based on the rankings — and SI.com's bowl projections — Texas is the favorite this year.

In fact, the winner of their annual showdown in October is likely to be the odds–on favorite to play for another national title in January. And that is what SI.com is projecting — that Texas will play Florida for the national crown.

Which teams are in SI.com's Top 20 but were not in the Top 20 of those polls at the end of last season? Well, Florida State, Georgia Tech, LSU and North Carolina were not in the AP poll or the USA Today Coaches' poll. Georgia Tech was in the Harris Interactive Top 20, but Ole Miss, Virginia Tech and Oregon State were not.

It's worth noting, though, that the Harris poll's final rankings came out in early December so the poll didn't take into consideration the facts that Ole Miss, Virginia Tech and Oregon State all won their bowl games.

It is also worth noting that LSU and North Carolina are the only teams in SI.com's Preseason Top 20 that did not appear in the final installations of at least one of those three polls.

But LSU is a pretty easy one to include. The Tigers, after all, won national titles in 2007 and 2003. They're coming off an 8–5 season that included a bowl victory so it isn't much of a longshot to pick LSU to be successful this year. In fact, the only other time this decade in which LSU wasn't ranked at season's end preceded the first of their two national titles in the 21st century.

Now, what about North Carolina? The Tar Heels have more of a reputation as a basketball program than a football program — and they play in a conference that is known more for basketball than football. Well, the Tar Heels have enjoyed some success over the years. They haven't won their conference since 1980, and they've never won a national title. But they also went 8–5 last season. It was the Tar Heels' first winning season since 2001.

So do they deserve to be Number 20 in SI.com's rankings? Apparently so. Armed with "hyperquick" linebackers anchoring a defense that returns nine starters, SI.com says, "It's time to turn the close losses into big wins and step onto the national stage."

We'll see. Boston College and Virginia Tech played for the ACC title last year, with Tech winning. Boston College doesn't have much of a reputation in football, either, but the Eagles have been to bowl games every year since 1999. SI.com ranks Boston College Number 71 heading into the season. Draw from that what you will.

One thing I'm wondering about is how SI.com feels about my alma mater — the University of Arkansas. The Razorbacks have struggled in recent years, and, based on the preseason rankings, they will have their work cut out for them when they play Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU, but SI.com ranks them 37th in the nation and predicts Arkansas will play Clemson in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 27.

That's all the information I've got on the Razorbacks right now. I suppose SI.com will post the Arkansas scouting report later this month — presumably after it appears in print in SI's Aug. 17 issue.

But if the Hogs go back to a bowl game this year, I will be happy. Woo pig sooie!

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