Rounding the Stretch

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I apologize if any of my readers are growing tired of seeing Razorback photos here, but I am an Arkansas graduate, and I'm so proud of the Hogs for beating LSU last week.

As I observed last week, Arkansas almost never beats LSU in consecutive seasons — since that would, by definition, require the Hogs to win on the road, which they rarely do when the home team is LSU. But last week, they did it, and they didn't even need overtime in a 31–14 romp. I should have picked them for an upset special. But I admit that I didn't think they could do it. Boy, am I glad I was wrong!

I really figured the Hogs, who became bowl eligible with the win, would be in the Top 25 this week. But they aren't.

I bet they will be ranked if they beat Mississippi State tonight.

There is also a slim — very slim — chance that Arkansas could share the SEC West title. If Arkansas and Ole Miss win out and Alabama loses to Auburn next week, the three teams will tie for first in the SEC West. Ordinarily, I suppose, the tiebreaker would be the results of their head–to–head confrontations, but Arkansas beat Ole Miss and lost to Alabama, Alabama lost to Ole Miss and beat Arkansas, Ole Miss lost to Arkansas and beat Alabama. There is no advantage for anyone.

I recall a similar situation in the days of the old Southwest Conference. Arkansas, Texas and Texas A&M all tied for the title; the winner of the SWC always went to the Cotton Bowl, but the tie was not broken by the head–to–head results. Arkansas beat A&M and lost to Texas, Texas lost to A&M and beat Arkansas, A&M lost to Arkansas and beat Texas. The next tiebreaker was simply to let the team whose last appearance in a Cotton Bowl was more remote than the others be the champion. Consequently, Arkansas went to the Cotton Bowl that year.

These days, conferences have all sorts of tiebreaking tiers. If head–to–head doesn't do it, they'll go into all kinds of statistical gymnastics. When those have been exhausted, they turn to a coin flip.

Actually, in the current SEC scenario, LSU could conceivably be one of the teams to tie for first. The Tigers, who lost to Alabama, play Ole Miss today; if they beat the Rebels, they could replace Ole Miss in a three–way tie, but they lost to the two teams with whom they would be tied — so, for all intents and purposes, if Ole Miss loses today, Alabama clinches a berth in the SEC title game against Florida.

Today

• Wake Forest at #1 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Clemson has won eight of its last nine games with Wake Forest.
  
  With a 3–7 record, Wake Forest seems like an unlikely candidate to topple Clemson, and, with only Wake Forest and South Carolina remaining on the season schedule, Clemson looks like a virtual lock to finish the season unbeaten. But the Tigers should not let thoughts of their likely opponent in the ACC title game, North Carolina, distract them. They have to be focused.
  
  I think they will be. Clemson should win.
• #9 Michigan State at #2 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This probably looked a lot more attractive to broadcasters when the season began. But Michigan State stumbled against Nebraska a couple of weeks ago so it is not the battle of the unbeatens that the networks probably assumed it would be.
  
  Even Ohio State has failed to live up to expectations. The Buckeyes are undefeated, but they have underperformed against the likes of Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota and Northern Illinois.
  
  Michigan State has underperformed as well. The Spartans have struggled on the road — losing to Nebraska and barely getting past Michigan and Rutgers.
  
  The Buckeyes are 14–4 against the Spartans since 1991.
  
  I think it is probably pretty even so I will go with the home team, Ohio State.
• Charleston Southern at #3 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There really isn't any point in going into this, is there?
  
  Alabama should roll.
• #10 Baylor at #4 Oklahoma State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Can Baylor get back into the national championship conversation? Doubtful, but if it is going to happen, a win at Stillwater this week will be necessary.
  
  And that's a tall order. Baylor has lost the last 11 times it has played in Stillwater. You have to go back to 1939 — more than 75 years ago — to find Baylor's last win at Oklahoma State.
  
  Can Baylor end its losing skid in Stillwater? Possibly, but I doubt it. I expect Oklahoma State to win and stay on track for next week's showdown with Oklahoma — in which the Big 12 title and a possible berth in the nation's Final Four could well be on the line.
• Boston College at #5 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This has been a streaky series in recent years. Boston College won six in a row from 2001 to 2007, then Notre Dame has won the last four. Their last meeting was in 2012 so anyone on either side who took part in the last meeting would have to be a senior today — and there ain't many seniors left in collegiate athletics anymore. My guess is that practically no one wearing a uniform on either sideline took part in Notre Dame's 21–6 victory at Boston College on Nov. 10, 2012.
  
  Boston College appears to be ill equipped to snap its losing streak against Notre Dame. BC is 3–7 overall and winless in ACC play.
  
  The 9–1 Irish can expect a challenge from Stanford next week — but not from Boston College this week. I pick Notre Dame.
• Purdue at #6 Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The first time these teams met was in 1910. They have played 85 times in all, and Purdue actually leads the series. Of course, many of the Boilermakers' wins came in the '60s and '70s.
  
  Iowa has won seven of its last nine games with Purdue, and this game looks like a huge mismatch. Iowa is 10–0; Purdue is 2–8.
  
  But Purdue has been somewhat deceptive. Most of the time, the Boilermakers have been hard pressed to score 20 points or more — and they've been even harder pressed to hold opponents under 20 points. Yet somehow they scored 55 points on Nebraska.
  
  So beware, Iowa. Purdue is capable of rising up every once in awhile. You can ask Nebraska — when you travel to Lincoln next week.
  
  Will you still be unbeaten? I think you will. I pick Iowa.
• #11 TCU at #7 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When the season began, this game had the potential to be even bigger than it is.
  
  But TCU, after an 8–0 start, got slapped around by Oklahoma State, then barely got past Kansas. The Horned Frogs are staggering; with a date with Baylor looming next week, TCU faces the real possibility of ending the season with three losses in the final four regular–season games. The Frogs have already fallen from the Top 10. Three losses in the final four games might knock them out of the Top 25 entirely.
  
  OU lost its annual grudge match with Texas but has rolled in every game since. Baylor, in last week's game, was the first team since Texas to hold the Sooners under 52 points.
  
  And Oklahoma is 5–0 at home this year. The TCU team that struggled with Kansas last week is not up to the challenge of facing the Sooners in Norman. I take Oklahoma.
• Florida Atlantic at #8 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I refer you to my Charleston Southern–Alabama evaluation.
  
  Florida will win.
• #12 North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is an old rivalry. The first game between these schools was played in Roanoke, Va., in 1902. It was a 0–0 tie.
  
  They've played 31 times since, and Virginia Tech has won about two–thirds of the time.
  
  But I am sure that rarely has North Carolina been the ranked team and Virginia Tech has been the unranked one.
  
  To say it has been a rough year for Tech is an understatement. Tech is 5–5 and needs to win at least one of its last two games to qualify for a bowl. Considering that next week's opponent is woeful Virginia, it seems likely that Tech will qualify. But a win over a ranked team would look good on Tech's postseason resume — especially since Tech is 0–2 against ranked teams this year.
  
  The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are riding a nine—game winning streak — and might be a lot tougher to put away in the ACC title game than Clemson is inclined to believe. They've scored at least 41 points in six of those nine games — and they have scored 50 points or more four times.
  
  I pick North Carolina.
• #13 Houston at UConn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Houston has one of the best teams it has had in years. UConn is a basketball school, plain and simple.
  
  I have to take Houston.
• #14 Michigan at Penn State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Michigan is trying to break a three–game losing streak at Penn State.
  
  For serious college football fans, this is a clash between two great college football programs, stirring up memories of Paterno and Schembechler — even though I don't believe they ever faced each other.
  
  The 7–3 Lions could pose a problem for 8–2 Michigan. The Wolverines might get caught looking ahead to next week's rivalry game with Ohio State. In an upset special, I pick Penn State.
• Cal at #15 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford comes into this game with a five–game winning streak.
  
  Cal, though, has qualified for a bowl — its first since 2011 — and the Bears might be feeling a little feisty. A win over Stanford could get them a spot in a premiere bowl — in addition to bringing bragging rights back to the Cal campus for the first time since 2009.
  
  But I expect Stanford to win this game at home.
• Chattanooga at #16 Florida State, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: For the third time this week, I really have nothing to say about this one. Florida State is the clear choice.
• #17 LSU at #25 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: In a series that goes back to 1902, LSU beats Ole Miss 60% of the time.
  
  LSU's advantage has been even more pronounced since the dawn of the 21st century. Since 2000 the Tigers have won 11 of 15 meetings.
  
  But they lost the last time they played in Oxford.
  
  Even though both teams are ranked, it has to be a disappointing season for both. Before the season began, expectations for this game probably were quite high as both teams were mentioned as possible SEC West champions. LSU comes in 7–2 and Ole Miss comes in 7–3, which are respectable records, but both teams have two losses in SEC play and appear unlikely to share the SEC West title with Alabama — unless the Crimson Tide falters against Auburn next week.
  
  This should be a good game — and, when it is a close call, as this one is, I usually go with the home team, but I'm taking the visitor this time, LSU.
• UCLA at #18 Utah, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This is the 14th meeting between these schools, and UCLA has won more than three–fourths of the games that were played before.
  
  Utah has managed to win about one–third of the games played in Utah, including two of the last three that were played there. In fact, when you realize that UCLA won the first eight games played between these schools, the inescapable conclusion is that Utah is on the rise in this series.
  
  Utah's national ranking seems to confirm that. I pick Utah.
• #19 Navy at Tulsa, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This is the third time these teams have met, and the visitor prevailed in the previous two.
  
  That suggests that Navy should win this one, and that makes sense considering that the Midshipmen are ranked.
  
  But the 5–5 Golden Hurricane might complicate things. After all, Tulsa only needs to win one of its last two games to qualify for a bowl. Tulsa doesn't have to get the win against Navy. It could get it next week against 3–7 Tulane, but a win over Navy would look so much better on Tulsa's postseason resume.
  
  Not going to happen. I pick Navy.
• #20 Northwestern at #21 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Historically this series belongs to Wisconsin. Over the years the Badgers have won more than 62% of the time.
  
  But the Wildcats have had the upper hand in recent seasons, winning four of the last seven.
  
  However, Northwestern has lost the last four times the Wildcats have played at Wisconsin.
  
  It ought to be a good game. Too bad only the folks in Big Ten country will get to see it. I pick Wisconsin at home.
• #22 Southern Cal at #23 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Oregon is back in the Top 25 following its upset win over Stanford. Likewise, Southern Cal is back in the Top 25, riding a four–game winning streak.
  
  But one will lose today, and that team likely will fall from the Top 25 next week.
  
  I guess the recent momentum in the series belongs to Oregon, winner of three of the last four encounters, but the all–time leader — by a 2–to–1 margin — is Southern Cal.
  
  It really should be a good game, but I will pick Oregon at home — even though Southern Cal has won there more than 60% of the time.
• Colorado at #24 Washington State, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Washington State lost the only other time the Cougars hosted Colorado, and this looks like a perfect time to get even. Colorado is 4–7 while Washington State, at 7–3, is bound for a bowl somewhere.
  
  I think Washington State will win at home.

Last week: 16–5

Upset specials last week: 1–0

Season: 159–38

Upset specials overall: 5–12

Speculation About Who Will Win the National Title

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Well, we're approaching the end of the regular season.

As usual, football season has flown by — and, while I know the pros will be playing through December, followed by the playoffs in January — and we'll be getting about three dozen college bowl games plus the national championship game — it still signals the end of a time of the year I have always loved and always miss when it is gone.

For the next several weeks, I suppose, there will be rampant speculation about who will be in college football's Final Four. In fact, it has already started. I guess it never really stops.

The New York Times, for example, writes that the Big 12, home of the Baylor Bears and Oklahoma Sooners, who square off in Waco tonight, is likely to be left out again.

"If No. 1 Clemson wins the Atlantic Coast Conference, No. 2 Alabama the Southeastern Conference and No. 3 Ohio State the Big Ten, and if No. 4 Notre Dame wins the rest of its independent schedule," writes Victor Mather, "they are likely to be the four teams in the playoff."

USA TODAY ran a simulation and concluded that Alabama, not Clemson, would win the national title. Some things never change, huh?

It was an interesting simulation. Clemson won more often than anyone else, but Alabama beat Clemson head to head. As John Ewing wrote, "Clemson is the most likely champion, but Alabama is the better team."

Which is a concession to the fact that footballs take crazy bounces, and games don't always come out the way you think they will.

If you want to compare the teams, they will be playing at the same time on different networks this afternoon. Make sure you know where your remote is!

Idle: #23 Wisconsin

Today

• #1 Clemson at Syracuse, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams first met in the 1996 Gator Bowl, then they didn't meet again until 2013, when they were in the same conference. Clemson lost that Gator Bowl but has won the last two years.
  
  It really doesn't look too hopeful for 3–6 Syracuse in this game, either — and you would have to figure that Clemson, having just ascended to the top of the AP poll, would be vulnerable. The Tigers might well be — but not today and not against this team. I pick Clemson.
• #2 Ohio State at Illinois, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Ohio State dominates this series no matter where the game is played, but, in fact, the Buckeyes have been even more successful on the road against Illinois.
  
  Ohio State has won 75% of the time on the Illini's turf, and they have won the last 10 times the teams have faced each other there. Illinois' last home victory over Ohio State came on Oct. 12, 1991.
  
  No reason to expect anything different from 5–4 Illinois against 9–0 Ohio State. I pick Ohio State.
• #3 Alabama at #20 Mississippi State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Alabama has won seven straight against Mississippi State, and over the years the Crimson Tide has routinely beaten MSU — more than 80% of the time.
  
  In recent years, Mississippi State has been ranked when the Alabama game came around. But 'Bama has won seven in a row — and 12 of the last 14.
  
  That's dominance. And, while I know that Ole Miss finally got the Alabama monkey off its back earlier in the season, only one of those is permitted per season. I'll take Alabama.
• #12 Oklahoma at #4 Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Until Baylor plays TCU the day after Thanksgiving, I guess this qualifies as the game of the year in the Big 12.
  
  And it ought to be a good one.
  
  The 8–1 Sooners' only loss was in their annual shootout with Texas. The Longhorns have been struggling this year, but, as I observed at the time, the OU–Texas game really is one of those games in which the records do not matter.
  
  Oklahoma won its first 19 games against the Bears, but Baylor has won three of the last four and has its eyes on the national championship playoff in January. There is plenty of motivation in this game since the Sooners obviously have their eyes on a national championship playoff berth as well — and a win over Baylor would go a long way toward securing that.
  
  I pick Baylor, but I think it will be close.
• #5 Oklahoma State at Iowa State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Iowa State seldom has a competitive football team so it shouldn't come as a surprise that Oklahoma State has won six of its last eight meetings with the Cyclones.
  
  The Cyclones do play better against the Cowboys when the game is Iowa State's turf, but I don't think even that will help the 3–6 Cyclones.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.
• Wake Forest at #6 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This is a fairly new series, with these teams having played twice in the last four years. Notre Dame won both games.
  
  It is hard to imagine a scenario in which the 3–6 Demon Deacons can win this game. They could qualify for a bowl if they win their last three games — all of which are against teams that are currently ranked or have been ranked recently (including top–ranked Clemson next week). It is a daunting assignment.
  
  I pick Notre Dame.
• Oregon at #7 Stanford, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Historically, Stanford wins this game nearly 60% of the time, but, in recent years, when Oregon was a national title contender, the Ducks have been more successful. In fact, since 2002, Oregon is 10–3 against Stanford.
  
  But the Ducks enter this game 6–3. Michigan State and Utah upended them in September, and Washington State beat the Ducks in overtime last month.
  
  Meanwhile, Stanford has bounced back after its opening weekend loss to Northwestern. I take Stanford.
• Minnesota at #8 Iowa, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Minnesota leads the all–time series, but Iowa has the upper hand at home, where the Hawkeyes tend to beat the Gophers about 55% of the time.
  
  Iowa has been dominating the series in the 21st century, too. Since (and including) their meeting in 2000 (which was won by Minnesota), the Hawkeyes have been victorious two–thirds of the time.
  
  The Gophers have plenty of motivation. At 4–5, they need to win two of their last three games to qualify for a bowl. Unfortunately for them, two of those three games are against teams that are currently in the Top 25 — and Minnesota is 0–4 against ranked teams this season.
  
  Make that 0–5. I pick Iowa.
• Arkansas at #9 LSU, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I'd love to see my alma mater win this game and secure a bowl bid, but the Razorbacks blanked the Tigers last year, and Arkansas almost never beats LSU in back–to–back years. That, of course, would require them to win in Baton Rouge, which is where they play this year. Arkansas has only won in Baton Rouge twice. It is safe to say I'm not expecting the Razorbacks to win.
  
  I expect LSU to win.
• #10 Utah at Arizona, 9 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Before the season began, this game probably looked intriguing. But Arizona has struggled this year. The 5–5 Wildcats come into this game mired in a three–game losing streak, and they have given up at least 31 points 70% of the time.
  
  The 8–1 Utes have only given up 31 points or more once — in their loss to Southern Cal last month.
  
  Arizona might keep it close through the first half, but I expect Utah to prevail.
• #11 Florida at South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Florida has already punched its ticket for the SEC Championship game next month. The Gators are 6–1 in SEC, and South Carolina is their last conference foe in 2015.
  
  The Gators hold the tiebreakers over everyone else in the SEC East, and the Gamecocks can't possibly tie Florida for first place, even if they win this game.
  
  Which they won't. I pick Florida.
• Kansas at #13 TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: TCU's loss to Oklahoma State last week was disappointing for TCU fans, whose rallying cry had been "Fear the Frog!"
  
  That is probably what Kansas should be doing — fearing the Frog — for TCU hasn't lost consecutive games since 2013 — and then it was to a couple of good football teams, Kansas State and Baylor. Oklahoma State qualifies as a good football team, but winless Kansas doesn't. The Jayhawks had a few good seasons a decade ago, but they have secured their seventh straight losing season.
  
  I expect TCU to be feeling better by midafternoon.
• Maryland at #14 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN 2: These teams played each other five teams by 1950, then didn't play again until Maryland joined the Big Ten. Last year's game was their first in more than 60 years, and the Spartans won by three touchdowns.
  
  Maryland really doesn't figure to put up much of a fight. The Terps are 2–7 and winless in Big Ten play. It's going to stay that way. I pick Michigan State.
• #15 Michigan at Indiana, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: You have to go back to 1987 to find the last time Indiana beat Michigan in football. That is 19 straight wins for the Wolverines, who appear likely to win this game simply because Michigan always beats Indiana, in good years and bad.
  
  This is a good year for the Wolverines so far, and I expect Michigan to win convincingly.
• #25 Memphis at #16 Houston, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Most folks expected this to be a battle of unbeaten teams, but Navy kept the Memphis Tigers from holding up their end of the bargain with a 45–20 triumph last week.
  
  Houston will wrap up the regular season with a game against Navy. That could be a pretty impressive game, especially if the Cougars beat Memphis.
  
  And I do expect Houston to win at home.
• Miami (Fla.) at #17 North Carolina, 2:30 p.m. Central on ESPNU: This will be the 19th meeting in this series, and both teams have won nine of the previous 18.
  
  The 8–1 Tar Heels steamrolled Duke last week — and on paper the 6–3 Hurricanes look like a good challenge, but the truth is that Miami has been erratic in 2015. The same team that knocked off Duke by a field goal got crushed by Clemson, 58–0, the week before.
  
  Even though Miami has won four of the last five times these schools have met, I'm going to take North Carolina.
• Washington State at #18 UCLA, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: UCLA has a winning record on both campuses, but the Bruins have been particularly dominant on their own field, winning more than 70% of the time.
  
  The Bruins come into this game having beaten Washington State five straight times. But the Cougars could be a problem for the Bruins. They lost to Stanford by only two points a couple of weeks ago, and they snapped an eight–game losing streak against Oregon.
  
  The Cougars could very well win this one; in fact, I think I will make Washington State an upset special.
• North Carolina State at #19 Florida State, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: The 6–3 Wolfpack might give the unsuspecting Seminoles fits. N.C. State looked a lot more imposing in September, when the Wolfpack boasted an undefeated record. Then October came, and the Wolfpack lost three of four.
  
  But Florida State has now lost two of its last three.
  
  Even so, the Seminoles have beaten the Wolfpack in six of their last eight meetings, and the Seminoles win nearly 80% of the time when they host the Wolfpack.
  
  I'll take Florida State.
• #21 Temple at South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This is only the second meeting between these schools. The first was at Temple in 2012, and Temple won.
  
  South Florida is 5–4 and could be a problem for Temple — but I think Temple will take care of business.
• SMU at #22 Navy, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This series has been played a lot longer than you probably think. These schools first met in 1930, and the Mustangs reeled off four wins in the first five meetings — including a 32–28 win over Navy in Roger Staubach's Heisman–winning season.
  
  But Navy has won eight of the last nine contests. SMU hasn't beaten Navy since 1998 — which also happens to be the last time the Mustangs won at Navy.
  
  In theory, SMU could end both streaks this week. But the Mustangs won't. I pick Navy.
• Purdue at #24 Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: It wasn't so long ago that Purdue beat Northwestern regularly and routinely.
  
  But Northwestern has won five of the last eight meetings with Purdue, and the Boilermakers are 2–7 and coming off a big loss to Illinois. The folks on the Purdue campus probably can't wait for basketball season to start.
  
  I am certain Northwestern will win.

Last week: 14–8

Upset specials last week: 1–3

Season: 143–33

Upset specials overall: 4–12

Gone at Last, Gone at Last ...

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"Gone at last, gone at last
Gone at last, gone at last
I've had a long streak of that bad luck
But I'm praying it's gone at last."

Paul Simon, 'Gone at Last' (1975)

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I don't often get the chance to brag about one of my upset specials. In fact, until last weekend, I had gone several weeks without one of my upset specials paying off.

But last weekend one did.

I picked Miami (Fla.) to beat Duke, and the Hurricanes did. That triumph is a bit tarnished by bad officiating, though. You see, Miami won the game on an eight–lateral, 75–yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Now the ACC has suspended the officials who worked that game for blowing the call.

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Even so, though, I've been humming Paul Simon's tune "Gone At Last" ever since that prediction came through. Maybe I will do even better this week. After all, I'm picking four upset specials.

Today

• Northern Illinois at #20 Toledo, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams met for the first time less than four months after Apollo 11's historic trip to the moon.
  
  Toledo was the winner on that first occasion, and Toledo has won about 68% of the time — but Northern Illinois has had the upper hand in the last five meetings. Northern Illinois is no pushover; the Huskies lost to top–ranked Ohio State by a touchdown on Sept. 19, and they bring a 5–3 record into the game in addition to their winning streak.
  
  But I think undefeated Toledo will prevail at home.

Thursday

• #2 Baylor at Kansas State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Kansas State leads the all–time series, but Baylor has won five of the last seven meetings — and the last three in a row. Iowa State held Baylor to 45 points — a season low for the Bears — last weekend. Perhaps the Wildcats can do even better, but their offense would the best production against the Bears to date — and that wouldn't have been enough to beat Baylor last Saturday.
  
  Besides, 3–4 Kansas State is mired in a four–game losing streak. The Wildcats might win enough games to qualify for a bowl, but I don't think they will win this one. I pick Baylor.
• #24 Mississippi State at Missouri, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met only twice before — the most recent encounter being in 1984, which may have been before the fathers of most of today's college football players were old enough to be in elementary school.
  
  History will be of little help in picking a winner in this game.
  
  The Bulldogs have won five of their last six games, but they've lost both of the games they have played against ranked teams. Consequently, Mississippi State should beat Missouri — but should be concerned about next week's game against seventh–ranked Alabama.

Friday

• #23 Temple at SMU, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This doesn't look like much of a contest.
  
  Temple was undefeated until losing a close one to Notre Dame last week. Meanwhile, SMU has lost its last six games; if South Florida had managed to kick another field goal, each of those teams would have scored at least 41 points on the Ponies.
  
  At 1–7, the Mustangs are already eliminated from bowl consideration — even if they could somehow win their last four games.
  
  It's hard to see how SMU can get motivated enough to knock off the Owls. I'll take Temple in this one.

Saturday

• Minnesota at #1 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central): These teams have been playing each other since 1921, and Ohio State wins more than 86% of the time.
  
  The Gophers impressed everyone when they took TCU down to the wire in the season opener and when they came close to beating Michigan last weekend. But they didn't impress anyone when then–16th–ranked Northwestern shut them out — nor when unranked Nebraska nearly hung 50 points on them.
  
  The Gophers are 4–4, and they need two wins to qualify for a bowl. They will still need two wins after this game is done. I pick Ohio State.
• #17 Florida State at #3 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This may be the game of the year in the ACC. It seems to be the game that will decide who wins the conference this year — and it will establish if all the talk of Clemson being the best team in the country has any basis.
  
  The Seminoles have dominated this series, which began in 1970 but the teams haven't been playing each other annually all that time. They began playing each other every year when they became conference rivals in 1992. Florida State has won more than 71% of the time and has won six of the last eight encounters.
  
  Clemson has been tough for Florida State to beat on the road. The Seminoles won the last time they played at Clemson, but, before that, Clemson had won five straight against Florida State. They don't call it Death Valley for nothing.
  
  Nevertheless, I am going to pick Florida State in an upset special.
• #4 LSU at #7 Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is, without a doubt, the game of the week — as it usually is when these teams square off.
  
  Alabama has won the last three meetings — but it is usually close. Outcomes like Alabama's 38–17 triumph over LSU two years ago are uncommon.
  
  So I'm expecting another close one — befitting the teams' Top10 rankings.
  
  Fact is, Alabama usually wins, no matter where the game is played. I'll take Alabama.
• #5 TCU at #12 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This has been a close series over the years, but, ultimately, the winner tends to be whichever team is the home team.
  
  This year, that is Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys haven't lost at home to the Frogs since 1991.
  
  That home team thing isn't infallible, though, and I'm inclined to pick TCU to win.
• #6 Michigan State at Nebraska, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Nebraska leads the all–time series, but Michigan State holds the edge lately, having won the last two meetings.
  
  The 3–6 Cornhuskers could really use a win in this game, having lost four of their last five, but the Spartans probably will win this game. That observation is based more on the sloppy play of Nebraska than the uninspiring play of Michigan State this season.
  
  In truth, neither team probably deserves to win — but somebody has to. I'll take Michigan State.
• #8 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Typically, Notre Dame beats Pitt a little more than two–thirds of the time. Yet the last time they met, the Panthers won.
  
  Then as now, Pitt was the home team, and the 6–2 Panthers could be a problem for the Irish. Pitt's two losses came to teams who were not ranked at the time but have won their way into the rankings since — Iowa and North Carolina. In both games, Pitt was within a single score of winning or tying things up.
  
  In an upset special, I will take Pittsburgh at home.
• #9 Stanford at Colorado, noon (Central) on Pac–12 Network: In spite of losing the season opener to Northwestern, Stanford has won seven in a row and is being spoken of as the gold standard of the Pac–12.
  
  Head to head, this is a streaky series. Colorado won the first three times they met, then Stanford won the last four, taking a 4–3 lead in the series with last year's 48–0 win at Boulder. Colorado is 4–5 and enters the game with four losses in its last five contests.
  
  I take Stanford. It's the momentum thing.
• #10 Iowa at Indiana, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: OK, the Hoosiers are better this year than usual. They started 4–0, but they are mired in a four–game losing streak.
  
  They hung in there against Ohio State, but that loss seemed to take the wind out of their sails, such as it was. That was the first of Indiana's four straight losses. Another one seems likely against 8–0 Iowa this week, and the prospects don't look any better next week against 6–2 Michigan.
  
  Still the Hawkeyes lost the last time they visited the Hoosiers (in 2013), and, historically, the Hoosiers have been more competitive on their home field.
  
  But I don't think that is going to make a big difference this time. I pick Iowa.
• Vanderbilt at #11 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Vandy took advantage of a rebuilding Florida program to record a 34–17 win in 1993, the last time the Commodores visited the Gators. That was Vanderbilt's only win over Florida since 1988 — and it was Vanderbilt's only win at Florida since 1945.
  
  Perhaps that gives you an idea of what an historically daunting assignment it is that Vandy faces at Gainesville. On average, the Gators beat the Commodores by more than 18 points on their home turf.
  
  These Gators (7–1) can clinch the SEC East title with a victory over 3–5 Vanderbilt. and I believe they will. I pick Florida.
• #13 Utah at Washington, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Utah has never beaten Washington. The Huskies are 8–0 all time against the Utes, but most of those games were played before 1980.
  
  It is truly a challenge to try to figure out the Huskies. They are 4–4 and have played well in losing efforts against the likes of Boise State and Oregon. And Washington even managed to beat a then–ranked Southern Cal squad. But they lost to a California team that, only a couple of weeks later, staggered into what has become a three–game losing streak.
  
  I expect Utah to get its first win in the series.
• Iowa State at #14 Oklahoma, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This will be the 80th time these teams have faced each other, and I can say without fear of contradiction that Iowa State almost never beat Oklahoma.
  
  In fact the Sooners haven't lost to the Cyclones since 1990.
  
  Not only does Oklahoma usually win but the score is usually lopsided as well. Unless you're an OU fan, you really have no reason to watch this one. I take Oklahoma.
• Navy at #15 Memphis, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the first meeting ever between these schools.
  
  At 6–1, Navy seems quite capable of keeping up with unbeaten Memphis, who may well have trouble staying focused with the showdown with Houston looming next week.
  
  So I'm going to pick Navy as an upset special.
• Rutgers at #16 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These teams met for the first time last year, and Michigan lost 26–24. If the Wolverines had kicked another field goal, they would have won the game and, if all the other games finished as they actually did, Michigan would have qualified for a bowl.
  
  This is a different Michigan team. The Wolverines are 6–2, and they have already qualified for a bowl berth. The question now is which one will it be? Each victory moves Michigan closer to playing on New Year's Day.
  
  I don't think 3–5 Rutgers will put up much of a fight in the Big House. I'll take Michigan.
• Cincinnati at #18 Houston, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools have met 23 times, and Houston holds a slender 13–10 advantage.
  
  But Cincinnati has accumulated most of those wins since 1993. Prior to that time, Houston was 11–2 against Cincinnati.
  
  So even though Houston is 8–0 and Cincinnati is 5–3, I have to say the historical edge (since '93, at least) belongs to Cincinnati. On top of that, Houston may be distracted by thoughts of the showdown with undefeated Memphis coming up next week.
  
  As my upset special, I will take Cincinnati.
• Arkansas at #19 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: There was a time when this game was seen as a border rivalry, but then the schools let their annual showdowns lapse and, with the exception of the 1970 Sugar Bowl, nearly two decades went by before they played again.
  
  They resumed the series in 1981 as an annual nonconference game, but a decade later it became a conference game when Arkansas joined the SEC. Since that time, Arkansas is 13–10 against Ole Miss. The Hogs have been competitive in games played in Mississippi as well.
  
  I'd love to see the Hogs win because then they would only need one more victory to qualify for a bowl, but my head overrules my heart. I pick Ole Miss to win.
• Duke at #21 North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the 95th consecutive season these teams have faced off. North Carolina leads the series, winning about 64% of the time. Lately, the Tar Heels have really dominated, winning 10 of the last 12 encounters.
  
  Duke is coming off its excruciating 30–27 loss to Miami (Fla.) that snapped a four–game Blue Devil winning streak. The 7–1 Tar Heels have won every game since losing their opener to South Carolina.
  
  Should be a pretty good game — even without the bitter basketball rivalry spilling over onto the gridiron. I'll take North Carolina.
• #22 UCLA at Oregon State, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These teams have faced each other 61 times, and UCLA wins about 70% of the time.
  
  Lately, though, the Beavers have been in control of the series, winning on the road in the most recent meeting (in 2012) and defeating UCLA in three of their last five games.
  
  Still, Oregon State is 2–6 in 2015 and has lost its last five games. UCLA is 6–2 and seems likely to crush the Beavers. Consequently, I'll take UCLA.
• Auburn at #25 Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This series is more than 100 years old. The first game was played in 1911, then about three–quarters of a century went by before the teams faced off in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Day 1986.
  
  In the games that have been played on the Auburn and Texas A&M campuses, the visiting team has always won, and it is tempting to pick Auburn to continue that trend. But the Tigers, who were ranked when the season began, have lost four of their last six games and look like longshots to earn a bowl bid. They just about have to win this game to remain in the running, but I don't think that will happen. I pick Texas A&M.

Last week: 15–2

Upset specials last week: 1–1

Season: 129–25

Upset specials overall: 3–9

A Reason to Watch

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This season hasn't gone as I had hoped.

As a graduate of the University of Arkansas, I believed enough pieces were in place for the Razorbacks to compete for at least the SEC West title.

Unfortunately, the Hogs have lost four of the seven games they have played. Yet, even in the midst of a disappointing season, there are shining moments — like last weekend's four–overtime victory over Auburn.

The Hogs had lost to the Tigers the last two years — and three of the last five times they had met. It seemed like an impossible task, given that the Razorbacks came into the game with a 2–4 record, but they beat Auburn, a recent national championship winner, by a score of 54–46.

I wish I could have seen it, but it was shown on the SEC Network, which is not carried by my cable provider.

Nevertheless, this is one of the many things I love about college sports, especially football. Even when you think there is no point in playing the rest of the schedule, something happens that gets your blood pumping again. I know the Hogs won't play for the national title. They probably won't be in a New Year's Day bowl, might not be in a bowl at all.

But if their games are televised in this area, I will watch them.

Idle: #1 Ohio State, #2 Baylor, #4 LSU, #6 Michigan State, #7 Alabama, #20 Toledo, #25 Mississippi State

Thursday

• West Virginia at #5 TCU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: This is the fourth year these teams have been conference rivals, and the home team has never won (their first meeting was in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl).
  
  West Virginia has lost three straight to ranked teams, though. Make that four straight. I pick TCU.
• North Carolina at #23 Pittsburgh, 6 p.m. (ESPN): North Carolina has dominated this series, winning six of nine previous contests &mdash and four of the last five.
  
  In fact, you have to go back to 1978 to find the last time North Carolina lost at Pittsburgh. Until now. I pick Pitt.

Saturday

• #3 Clemson at North Carolina State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This series began in 1902, and Clemson wins about 65% of the time.
  
  Lately, the Tigers have done better than that, winning nine of the last 10 meetings.
  
  The Wolfpack's most recent win in the series came in 2011 — on the same field in Raleigh, N.C., where this year's game will be played.
  
  N.C. State enters the game 5–2 and is probably not in the running for the ACC title since both of the Wolfpack's losses have come in conference play. I figure N.C. State probably won't beat 7–0 Clemson, either, but most likely will win at least one of its last four games and qualify for a bowl.
  
  Clemson, meanwhile, keeps on rolling.
• #8 Stanford at Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: History points to a Stanford win in this game.
  
  Stanford has won the last seven meetings with Washington State, doubling its advantage in the all–time series. Being a road team isn't a problem for Stanford in this series, either. Stanford's winning percentage is actually higher on Washington State's than on Stanford's.
  
  But the 5–2 Cougars should not be overlooked. They lost a close one to Cal a few weeks ago and haven't lost since. Stanford has been scoring in bunches — except for their meager 6–point output in the opener against Northwestern.
  
  I'll take Stanford.
• #9 Notre Dame at #21 Temple, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When these teams met for the first time a couple of years ago, the Irish cruised to a 28–6 win. Anyone who witnessed that game probably never would have predicted that, when they met again, both teams would be ranked.
  
  Yet that is the case, and it should make for an interesting game for the viewing audience.
  
  Notre Dame this week and Memphis in three weeks are really the only remaining challenges for unbeaten Temple. Notre Dame isn't undefeated, but the Irish can stay in the national championship conversation with a convincing win over Temple — especially if they can top that in November with wins over two other currently ranked teams, Pitt and Stanford.
  
  First things first, though. Notre Dame needs to beat Temple, and I think that will happen. I pick Notre Dame.
• Maryland at #10 Iowa, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams met for the first time last year, Maryland's first season in the Big Ten, and the Hawkeyes won by a touchdown.
  
  The Terrapins come into this game 2–5 and seem ill equipped to stop the 7–0 Hawkeyes. I'll go with Iowa.
• Georgia vs. #11 Florida at Jacksonville, Fla., 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: With only one conference loss to date, the Gators can all but secure a berth in the SEC title game by beating Georgia, which they did last year.
  
  They lost the previous three, so it certainly isn't a sure thing.
  
  The Bulldogs enter the game with only two SEC losses, and winning their division probably will require Georgia to win all of its remaining conference games. The Bulldogs are probably capable of that, but it's still a tall order. It will be much easier all the way around if Florida wins the game, and that is what I expect. I pick Florida.
• #12 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Texas Tech had the upper hand when these teams started playing each other back in the 1930s.
  
  But thanks to nine Oklahoma State victories in the last 12 meetings — and three ties in the 1940s and 1950s — the advantage belongs to Oklahoma State, 21–18–3.
  
  The Cowboys haven't been very successful in Lubbock, where they have won less than one–third of the time — but they have won the last three times they have played there. I think they will do it again, although this game could be pretty close for awhile. I pick Oklahoma State.
• Oregon State at #13 Utah, 6 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Utah is probably in the best possible frame of mind for this game.
  
  Oregon State is the other Oregon team, the one that wasn't in the four–team national championship playoff in January. Sometimes the Beavers have been good enough to qualify for bowls. More often, they haven't been good enough.
  
  It's looking like 2015 is one of the latter. The Beavers are 2–5 with UCLA, Cal, Washington and Oregon remaining on their schedule. It's safe to say they aren't lining up to buy bowl tickets at OSU.
  
  Even so, Oregon State has the historical edge on Utah, having won 11 of their previous 19 matchups. Coming off last week's loss to Southern Cal, I figure Utah will be hungry — and ready to pull that Oregon State thorn from its side. I pick Utah.
• #14 Oklahoma at Kansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: This will be the 100th meeting of these two schools in football.
  
  When I was on the faculty at OU, I attended a few OU–Kansas basketball games. They tended to be pretty good games, too.
  
  But I have often said that OU's football team may have been its worst when I was there. Historically, the Sooners beat Kansas about 75% of the time, but when I was on the OU faculty, the Sooners won twice and Kansas, which must have had a couple of its best teams ever during that time, also won twice.
  
  Well, those days are over, and the schools are back where they belong — based on their football histories. The Sooners are in the Top 25, and the Jayhawks are 0–7. The Sooners have beaten Kansas 10 straight times. I expect them to make it 11. I pick Oklahoma.
• #15 Michigan at Minnesota, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series dates to the late 19th century. The teams have played each other 101 times, and the Wolverines have won almost 74% of the time.
  
  It's been about as close to a lock as you can get in college football. All but four of Minnesota's victories over Michigan came before 1968, and Michigan hasn't lost at Minnesota since 1977.
  
  The 4–3 Gophers are entering a period that can make or break their season. After the 15th–ranked Wolverines come trips to #1 Ohio State and #10 Iowa as well as a season–ending game with Wisconsin.
  
  I don't think home field will be an advantage for Minnesota. I pick Michigan.
• Tulane at #16 Memphis, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This series goes back to 1954, and Memphis leads it 19–11–1.
  
  In fact, the Tigers almost never lose at home to Tulane. They've only lost once since 1981. I'm not inclined to think that 2–5 Tulane can change that.
  
  I choose Memphis to remain undefeated.
• Syracuse at #17 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Syracuse beat Florida State the first time they played — back in 1966. They have played seven times since then, and Florida State has won every time. That includes a 3–0 mark on their home field.
  
  Syracuse comes into this game having lost its last four after opening the season with three consecutive wins. They're probably more than ready for the start of basketball season at Syracuse, but even though 6–1 Florida State is probably out of the national championship conversation following its loss to Georgia Tech last week, Florida State has some work to do to remain in the conversation for a prominent bowl bid.
  
  I pick Florida State.
• Vanderbilt at #18 Houston, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The only previous meeting between these schools was in the January 2014 BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham, Ala.
  
  Vanderbilt won that one, but now the Commodores will face the challenge of playing on Houston's home field. That may not be much of a challenge these days, but it was pretty significant when I was in school at Arkansas, and Houston was a Southwest Conference rival.
  
  At 3–4 Vanderbilt probably isn't too imposing. Some people will point to the Commodores' 10–3 triumph over Missouri last weekend as evidence that Vandy is better than usual this year, but remember that I wrote earlier this season that I thought Missouri was overrated. I would also remind you that this Vanderbilt team lost its season — and home — opener to Western Kentucky.
  
  People are already anticipating a showdown between Houston and Memphis in a couple of weeks. I expect 7–0 Houston to hold up its end of the deal and remain unbeaten. I pick Houston.
• #19 Ole Miss at Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Auburn has owned this series, winning about three–quarters of the time. The Tigers have been especially dominant since 1971, going 29–5 against the Rebels.
  
  Not to mention the fact that Auburn has won the last five games against Ole Miss that were played at Auburn, as this year's game will be.
  
  The 6–2 Rebels have had their ups and downs. The win at Alabama was definitely an up, but losses to Florida and particularly Memphis were downs. The season hasn't exactly gone according to the script for Auburn, either. The 4–3 Tigers were expected to contend for the SEC West crown but have lost to three rivals in the West — LSU, Mississippi State and Arkansas — and face a tough schedule the rest of the way. A team once expected to be in the hunt for a New Year's Day bowl now may be hard pressed to qualify for a bowl now.
  
  If Auburn is to get back on track, the Tigers must win this game. Because it is a must–win situation, I will make Auburn an upset special.
• Miami (Fla.) at #22 Duke, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Until the last time these teams met on Duke's turf, Miami had only lost to Duke once — ever.
  
  But Miami isn't the powerhouse it once was. Last week's 58–0 loss to Clemson was ample proof of that.
  
  Still, I'd like to think the Hurricanes can defeat Duke — although at a time when the likes of TCU and Baylor are at the top of the polls, I suppose anything is possible.
  
  This will probably be r4egarded as an upset so I'll make it my upset special. Miami over Duke.
• Colorado at #24 UCLA, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: UCLA is unbeaten against Colorado since they first met as conference rivals in 2011.
  
  The series predates that, but it hasn't mattered. UCLA is 8–2 all time Colorado. They're better at home, winning by an average of more than three touchdowns whereas theire average margin of victory at Colorado has been about two touchdowns.
  
  I really don't think 4–4 Colorado can keep up with 5–2 UCLA. I'll take UCLA.

Last week: 15–3

Upset specials last week: 0–1

Season: 114–23

Upset specials overall: 2–8

Not Expecting Many Upsets This Weekend

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I have often said that one of the things I like most about college football is that upsets can and do happen fairly regularly.

We've certainly had no shortage of upsets this season — although I'm not really sure if I would categorize Iowa's 40–10 triumph over Northwestern last Saturday as an upset. It was much more lopsided than I thought it would be, though.

I doubt there will be many upsets this weekend. Most of the ranked teams seem to be playing the weaker teams in their conferences this week.

But you never know. College football might well provide us with an upset this week. If that happens, it would almost certainly be one of the biggest upsets in recent years.

Idle: #3 TCU, #10 Notre Dame, #13 Iowa, #14 Florida, #18 Michigan, #25 Georgia

Today

• #19 Cal at UCLA, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I imagine this is a game UCLA expected to win when the season began. But the Bruins have had some setbacks and have fallen from the rankings.
  
  Meanwhile, California — after slogging through three straight losing seasons — got off to a 5–0 start this year before losing to Utah last week.
  
  So here we are — underachieving UCLA against overachieving California. UCLA has dominated Cal when the game has been played in Los Angeles, winning six of the last seven meetings there.
  
  I don't know if Cal is regarded as the favorite by virtue of its ranking, but I'm going to pick UCLA — and I'm not going to treat it as an upset special.
• #24 Temple at East Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Temple is 6–0, but it hasn't really been tested yet. There are a few tests on the schedule, starting with #10 Notre Dame next week.
  
  And there are a few things working against Temple this week, too.
  
  East Carolina is 4–3 and did give the 14th–ranked Florida Gators a run for their money last month.
  
  And East Carolina has a homefield advantage in this series, having won four of the five games that have been played there — including the last three. You have to go back to the early '80s to find Temple's last win at East Carolina.
  
  But I choose Temple to end its drought.

Friday

• #17 Memphis at Tulsa, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Memphis must be enjoying this. After bumping off Ole Miss last weekend, 6–0 Memphis might be facing a trap game at Tulsa. True, the Golden Hurricane is 3–3, but Tulsa gets to play this game at home, and, in its games with Memphis, Tulsa has been more competitive there than in Memphis.
  
  I think it is entirely possible that the Tigers will lose at least once before the season is over — but not this week. I expect Memphis to win.

Saturday

• #1 Ohio State at Rutgers, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams met for the first time last year when national championship–bound Ohio State hammered Rutgers 56–17.
  
  That game was played in Columbus. This one will be played on Rutgers' home turf, where Rutgers has been as likely to lose as win of late.
  
  I'm thinking Ohio State will win.
• Iowa State at #2 Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Bears barely lead the all–time series, 7–6, thanks to a 4–2 mark against the Cyclones in Waco.
  
  In fact, Baylor has won the last three games it has played against Iowa State in Waco — which is, of course, where Saturday's game will be played.
  
  I just don't think 2–4 Iowa State will be able to stay with the unbeaten Bears. I pick Baylor.
• Indiana at #4 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Coming off what must have been an emotional victory over rival Michigan, the Spartans need an easy win. Historically the Hoosiers are made to order, having lost 10 of the last 11 against Michigan State.
  
  But someone needs to remind Michigan State that Indiana lost to top–ranked Ohio State by only a touchdown. The currently 4–3 Hoosiers could well be on their way to their first winning season — and first bowl bid — since 2007.
  
  Well, that's what motivates the Hoosiers. On their side of the ledger, the Spartans haven't lost at home to Indiana since 2001, and the closest the Hoosiers have come to matching the Spartans on the scoreboard was a 14–point margin of defeat. Usually, the Spartans win by much more.
  
  I don't know if the margin will be greater than 14 or not, but I do think Michigan State will win.
• Western Kentucky at #5 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have played once — in 2011, when LSU crushed WKU 42–9.
  
  That is pretty much what I expect this time. LSU will win.
• #6 Clemson at Miami (Fla.), 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: It's a good thing for Clemson that Miami wasn't a member of the ACC in the 1980s. That was when Miami was the dominant program in the nation.
  
  The Clemson–Miami series goes back to 1945, but it had been dormant for nearly half a century when the Hurricanes joined the ACC with each team beating the other twice on the road.
  
  Based on that, Clemson ought to be the favorite. The Tigers (6–0) haven't lost at Miami since 1956.
  
  The 4–2 Hurricanes are likely to qualify for a bowl bid — and could well be in the Top 25 before the season is over — but I have to pick Clemson.
• #7 Utah at Southern Cal, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: In their first three seasons in the Pac–12, the Utes lost to USC each year. But last year was different. Last year Utah won on Southern Cal's turf.
  
  Now the 6–0 Utes return to the scene of the crime. Southern Cal started the season in the Top 25, but the Trojans have lost three of their last four and seem to be skidding out of control. The Utes, meanwhile, have their eyes on a possible national championship. I'll take Utah.
• Tennessee at #8 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Traditionally this game has been known as "The Third Saturday in October" — although lately, as it is this year, the game is actually played on the fourth Saturday in October.
  
  Alabama dominates most of the teams in the SEC, and Tennessee is no exception. This series goes back more than a century. 'Bama wins about 58% of the time, and the Crimson Tide has won nine of the last 10 meetings. What's more, Alabama wins at home in this series nearly 65% of the time.
  
  When the season began, I'm sure many Volunteer fans believed this could be the year that Tennessee finally turned the corner on Alabama, but the Vols have stumbled to a 3–3 mark midway through the season. They can still probably win enough games to qualify for a bowl bid — but I don't think they will get one of those wins in Tuscaloosa. I pick Alabama.
• #9 Florida State at Georgia Tech, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams first met on the gridiron 60 years ago.
  
  Their first seven games were played as nonconference rivals. They're both in the ACC now but in different divisions so they don't face each other every year. But Florida State has gone 14–2 against Georgia Tech since the teams became conference rivals in the early '90s.
  
  I just don't see 2–5 Georgia Tech being up to the challenge of 6‐0 Florida State. I pick Florida State.
• Washington at #11 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford has been in control of this series in recent years eight of the last 10 times the teams have played, but that is a recent phenomenon. Washington won 16 of the previous 17.
  
  Nevertheless, the 3–3 Huskies may not be pushovers. Their losses have been to Boise State, Cal and Oregon — and beat then–ranked Southern Cal.
  
  But Stanford's won five in a row since losing the opener to Northwestern, and I pick Stanford to win this one.
• Kansas at #12 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Kansas doesn't have much of a reputation in football, especially recently. The Jayhawks have had six straight losing seasons and, at 0–6, are all but sure to make that seven straight, maybe this weekend.
  
  There was a time in their relationship when Kansas held the upper hand over Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 11 meetings with the Jayhawks. I feel comfortable in predicting that Oklahoma State will win this one, too.
• Texas Tech at #15 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This one will be a challenge for Tech. The 5–2 Red Raiders' losses have been to teams ranked in the Top 5 — TCU and Baylor — and now they must travel to Oklahoma, where the Sooners are 8–2 against them all time.
  
  The good news, though, is that Tech got one of those victories the last time they traveled to Norman — and they got the other one in 2010. The sheer dominance of the Sooners over the Red Raiders in Norman appears to be largely a thing of the past.
  
  Or is it? I guess it depends on which OU team shows up — the one that lost to unranked Texas a couple of weeks ago or the one that rallied to win in overtime at Tennessee.
  
  I'm betting on the latter. I pick Oklahoma.
• #16 Texas A&M at #23 Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Aggies were 6–0 all time against Ole Miss — until last year, when the Rebels pulled off a 35–20 win.
  
  The Aggies still have never lost to Ole Miss in College Station. A&M is 2–0 at home — with a couple of three–point wins.
  
  Both teams are coming off losses. The Aggies lost to Alabama. Ole Miss — who beat Alabama a few weeks ago — lost to Memphis. The Rebels seem to be staggering at this point. The Aggies absorbed some blows against the Tide, but they seem to be generally OK.
  
  In a down–to–the–wire finish, I take Texas A&M.
• #20 Toledo at UMass, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: Toledo leads this all–time series 3–1, but that one loss came in the only game played at UMass back in September 1976.
  
  The Minutemen are 1–5 and have given up 62 points twice already. The Rockets are 6–0 and scored 63 points last week. I'll take Toledo.
• #21 Duke at Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This would be a mismatch in basketball — and it should be a mismatch (the other way) in football.
  
  Virginia Tech leads the all–time series and has won 13 of the last 14 meetings with Duke. But, based on the rankings, 5–1 Duke is probably the favorite in this game. The Hokies are 3–4, with three losses in their last four games. The times they certainly have changed.
  
  But I just don't think they have changed that much. So I am going to take Virginia Tech as my upset special.
• #22 Houston at Central Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN News: These teams have played each other six times, and Houston has won only once — and the Cougars have never won at Central Florida in three previous attempts, but they have kept it close each time.
  
  I don't know if they have ever brought a national ranking into a clash with Central Florida before. If not, then I guess there really is a first time for everything because Houston will bring the #22 ranking into this game as well as a 6–0 record. The Knights, on the other hand, are 0–7 and probably can't wait for the season to be over. I pick Houston.

Last week: 12–5

Upset specials last week: 0–1

Season: 99–20

Upset specials overall: 2–7

As Usual, OU-Texas Defies Logic

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Some things are universally acknowledged to be the midway points of things. The Fourth of July, for example, is generally recognized as the unofficial midpoint of summer.

And the Oklahoma–Texas game generally signifies the midpoint of the college football season.

I've experienced that rivalry several different ways. I grew up in Arkansas, and the OU–Texas game was always interesting for us because Arkansas almost always played Texas the week after the OU game. Razorback fans took the annually televised clashes as opportunities to scout the Texas team and form opinions about what the Razorbacks should do. (I always knew what they needed to do — score more points than Texas, but they didn't do that very much.)

I went to graduate school in Denton, Texas, and I lived near the interstate. Every year, I could see the steady stream of traffic traveling south from Oklahoma.

Then, for four years, I was on the OU journalism faculty, and I was an unofficial adviser to the newspaper staff. OU–Texas week was always entertaining around the OU newsroom.

I've been in Texas for quite awhile now, in Dallas, no less, which is, of course, where the game is played every year.

As I observed last week, I've been watching this series most of my life, and I have seen the favorite lose the game about as often as win it. I should have picked the Longhorns to win. Their coach had his back to the wall — still does, even after beating the Sooners 24–17. But I made my prediction based on logic. That was my big mistake. You can't use logic when you're dealing with the OU–Texas game.

Idle: #16 Oklahoma State, #23 California, #25 Duke

Tonight

• #18 UCLA at #15 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford is currently riding the longest winning streak in the history of this series — seven straight wins.
  
  UCLA hasn't beaten Stanford since 2008 and hasn't won at Stanford since 2007. And there is more history that favors Stanford: The home team usually wins in this series, although things have been closer in games at Stanford than at UCLA.
  
  The historical momentum seems to be with Stanford — although there are a couple of mitigating factors to keep in mind. The rankings are very close; while not scientific, that does suggest that, midway through the season, the teams are seen as being relatively even. Also, since Stanford's winning streak is already the longest in series history, that suggests that the pendulum may be about to swing back.
  
  I expect a good game, but I'll go with the home team, Stanford.

Friday

• #21 Boise State at Utah State, 8 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: Boise State is 12–2 all time against Utah State, which includes a 5–1 mark in games at Utah State.
  
  This ought to be a better game than most people probably expect. Boise State is 5–1; Utah State is 3–2. But Boise State is on a 12–game winning streak — and frequently rolls up big scores. I pick Boise State.
• #24 Houston at Tulane, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Houston wins about three–quarters of the time in this series, but Tulane snapped a 10–year losing streak last season with a 31–24 road win.
  
  Setting aside history — even recent history — 5–0 Houston seems too much for 2–3 Tulane to overcome. I will take Houston.

Saturday

• Penn State at #1 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, Ohio State leads its series with Penn State 17–13, and the Buckeyes are 10–7 against the Nittany Lions when the game is played in Columbus, Ohio.
  
  Penn State lost its opener against Temple but has reeled off five straight wins since. The problem, though, is that none of the teams, not even the one that beat Penn State, is very good. The second half of the season promises to be much more difficult for the Nittany Lions; four of their last six opponents, starting with this one, are currently ranked.
  
  I don't think the Lions have the horses to stay with the Buckeyes. I pick Ohio State.
• West Virginia at #2 Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have only played each other three times — in the last three years since West Virginia joined the Big 12 Conference. The home team has won each game, which means Baylor won the only other game played in Waco — by the score of 73–42.
  
  There has been a lot of scoring in those three games. When Baylor was held to 27 points in last year's loss, that was the low–water mark for scoring in this series.
  
  West Virginia might be held below that this time, but I think Baylor will win by a wide margin. In the Bears' first five games, their lowest score was the 56 points they scored against SMU on Labor Day weekend.
  
  I pick Baylor.
• #3 TCU at Iowa State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: TCU is 5–1 all time against Iowa State — a basketball school that has seldom had a decent football team. In fact, Iowa State has only one bowl victory in the last decade.
  
  I expect TCU to win.
• Arizona State at #4 Utah, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: When the season began, Arizona State was much more highly regarded. But the Sun Devils staggered to a 2–2 start with losses to Texas A&M and Southern Cal. They followed that, however, with wins over UCLA and Colorado and currently stand 2–1 in Pac–12 play.
  
  The 5–0 Utes face Southern Cal next week, but they aren't slated to face a ranked team again until near the end of the season. That kind of thing can make a team complacent — and might suggest an opportunity for Arizona State on Saturday night.
  
  But I don't think so. I think Utah will prevail.
• Boston College at #5 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Seventy–five years ago, these teams met for the first time — in the Jan. 1, 1940 Cotton Bowl. Clemson won.
  
  They've met 23 times since then, always on one campus or the other. No neutral sites, not even in the years when theirs was a nonconference game. At Clemson, the Tigers are 5–3–1 against the Eagles. The Tigers also have an edge, albeit smaller, at Boston College.
  
  But what that doesn't tell you is the Tigers have won six of the last seven contests with the Eagles.
  
  I'll take Clemson.
• #11 Florida at #6 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Is 6–0 Florida for real? I guess we'll find out this week.
  
  The Gators won their first two SEC games — against Kentucky and Tennessee — by a total of six points. In the last couple of weeks, they have clobbered Ole Miss and Missouri. If they win this game, they will have two weeks to prepare for what will probably be their final test — against Georgia.
  
  It won't be easy, but Florida should not be in awe of Death Valley, as so many teams are. The Gators are 16–15 there although LSU has won the last two meetings in Baton Rouge.
  
  The Gators may prove to be the better team, but I am leaning heavily to LSU.
• #7 Michigan State at #12 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Michigan leads this series of in–state rivals, but Michigan State has held the upper hand lately, winning six of the last seven meetings.
  
  The Spartans have played pretty well in the Big House, too, although Michigan still wins there about two–thirds of the time.
  
  The 5–1 Wolverines have been impressive, especially on defense. They have shut out their last three opponents, and they have allowed fewer than 10 points in five straight games. Utah, in the season opener, is the only team so far to score more than 10 points against the Wolverines in Michigan's only loss to date.
  
  Michigan State, on the other hand, has been lackluster en route to its 5–0 mark, struggling to beat Purdue and Rutgers in the last couple of games.
  
  Based on the rankings, this qualifies as an upset special, but I don't think it will be an upset when the dust from the season settles. I pick Michigan.
• Louisville at #8 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 13th time these schools have faced each other, and Florida State is 11–1 in those previous games. What is more, Florida State is 7–0 at home against Louisville.
  
  Louisville has a 2–3 record, but that is deceiving. Louisville came within a field goal of now–fifth–ranked Clemson and lost by a touchdown to then–sixth–ranked Auburn. At 5–0, Florida State is imposing, especially at home, where the Seminoles haven't lost since 2012.
  
  I expect Florida State to win there again.
• #10 Alabama at #9 Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is probably the SEC's game of the season — so far. No doubt more intriguing matchups are still to come, but right now this must rank as the game of the season — Ole Miss' win at Alabama notwithstanding.
  
  This will be the third time they have played in College Station, and Alabama won both of the previous matchups — the most recent being a 49–42 shootout in 2013.
  
  As much as the Aggies would love to win this one at home, I'm going to pick Alabama to continue its dominance.
• #13 Ole Miss at Memphis, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Memphis is 5&ndashl0, only one win away from clinching a bowl bid, and I am sure the Tigers will get it, too. Just not this week.
  
  These teams have been practically annual foes since 1921, and Ole Miss has won more than 80% of the time. The Rebels are currently riding a six–year winning streak against Memphis that included a 24–3 triumph over last year's squad. In the last 20 years, Ole Miss has only lost in Memphis once.
  
  Got to take Ole Miss in this one.
• Southern Cal at #14 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams first played each other in Knute Rockne's day, and they have been playing annually since 1946. The historical record favors the home team, which is Notre Dame this year, and the Irish did beat Southern Cal the last time they played in South Bend, but the Trojans won the previous five times they played there.
  
  I've had misgivings about both teams from the start. Southern Cal (3–2) was pretty highly regarded heading into this season but last week's loss to Washington knocked the Trojans out of the Top 25. Notre Dame (5–1) just hasn't really impressed me. This is the game to impress people, a rivalry game.
  
  I'm going to make Southern Cal an upset special.
• #17 Iowa at #20 Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Overall, Iowa wins about two–thirds of the time, but the series has been more evenly divided in recent years.
  
  In fact between 2005 and 2012, Northwestern had a 6–2 record against Iowa.
  
  This year's matchup is intriguing. It could have been a battle of unbeatens, but Northwestern was blanked by a Michigan team that increasingly appears to be the real deal. Still Northwestern has won three of its last four home games against Iowa.
  
  It should be good. I'll take Northwestern at home.
• #19 Oklahoma at Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, Oklahoma wins more than 75% of the time against Kansas State. And, after losing a shocker to unranked Texas last week, the Sooners could use a confidence–builder like a win over the Wildcats.
  
  But 3–2 Kansas State won't roll over for 4–1 Oklahoma. And the Sooners' current five–game winning streak at K–State is bound to be used as a motivator for someone. In my upset special, I say Kansas State will prevail.
• Eastern Michigan at #22 Toledo, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: Toledo has an eight–game winning streak against Eastern Michigan and is 16–3 at home.
  
  The 1–5 Eagles appear to be no match for the unbeaten Rockets. I pick Toledo.

Last week: 14–5

Upset specials last week: 0–2

Season: 87–15

Upset specials overall: 2–6

Must-Win Games Midway Through the Season ...

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It is time again for the Oklahoma–Texas game. In the past, that game often decided which team stayed in the national championship conversation. This year, if speculation is correct, it may determine whether Texas, currently 1–4, is still in the chase for a bowl bid.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

My alma mater, the University of Arkansas, isn't doing much better at 2–3 so a lot is at stake for the Razorbacks when they travel to Alabama this weekend.

College football always seems to be that way, though. Every game seems to be a must–win game now. Heck, I heard some people talking about must–win games back on Labor Day weekend.

Idle: #9 Texas A&M, #16 Stanford

Today

• Washington at #17 Southern Cal, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Southern Cal wins nearly two–thirds of the time it faces Pac–12 rival Washington — about three–fourths of the time when they play in Los Angeles.
  
  In their last 13 meetings, Southern Cal has won 10. The weight of history is clearly against the Huskies.
  
  But every once in awhile they pull off an upset, as they did in 2010 when they claimed a one–point triumph in L.A.
  
  I really don't think that will happen this time. I have to take Southern Cal.

Saturday

• Maryland at #1 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Ohio State barely survived hapless Indiana last week and will be looking for an impressive victory over the Terps to justify the Buckeyes' continued presence atop the polls.
  
  This will be only the second meeting between the Buckeyes and the Terps. They met last season in College Park, Md., where Ohio State cruised to a 52–24 victory. I expect a similar result in Columbus. I have to take Ohio State.
• #2 TCU at Kansas State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: In eight previous meetings, each school has won four times so the winner will take the lead in the all–time series.
  
  It's a series that favors the home team; TCU is 3–1 at home, and so is Kansas State. I don't think that will matter in this year's game. Five of the eight previous encounters occurred at least 30 years ago.
  
  The rankings are more telling, and I expect TCU to prevail.
• #3 Baylor at Kansas, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: This one looks like a mismatch.
  
  Even in the days when Baylor had little in the way of a football team, the Bears beat the Jayhawks — who never have much of a football team.
  
  Baylor has won seven of the last nine meetings and is 10–4 all time against Kansas. Baylor's current five–game winning streak against Kansas has included some particularly brutal scores. Last year, for example, Baylor won at Waco, 60–14.
  
  If there is one thing in Kansas' favor, it is the fact that the Jayhawks are 4–3 at home against the Bears. All their previous wins have come in Lawrence.
  
  I don't think that will be enough, though. I pick Baylor.
• #4 Michigan State at Rutgers, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Believe it or not, this series is tied 3–3, and Rutgers actually has won two of the last three meetings.
  
  The Spartans are undefeated, but they haven't been as impressive as they needed to be. They have a chance to win at Rutgers for the first time in school history and avenge that five–point loss back in 2004.
  
  I think Michigan State will win. Whether it will be impressive remains to be seen.
• #23 California at #5 Utah, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Cal leads the all&ndashltime series — narrowly and largely on the strength of its record at home. Utah has dominated on its turf.
  
  Of course, it is important to remember that these teams have played at Utah only three times before, and it has been more than 50 years since Cal won at Utah.
  
  I think it should be a good game, but I don't think Cal will end the skid. I pick Utah to win.
• Georgia Tech at #6 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 79th meeting of these schools since 1902, and Georgia Tech has won about two–thirds of the time.
  
  That mirrors precisely the last 12 encounters between these teams. Georgia Tech has won two–thirds of the time, including six years ago when Georgia Tech beat Clemson for the ACC title.
  
  Georgia Tech has lost its last three games and appears to be no match for the undefeated Tigers, especially on Clemson's field, where the Tigers have lost only 16 times since the start of the 2003 season.
  
  I predict a Clemson win.
• #7 LSU at South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have played 20 times. South Carolina won the first meeting in 1930 — and has only won once since.
  
  That other win, which came in 1994, was South Carolina's only home win against LSU.
  
  It is one of the most lopsided series in college football. and 2–3 South Carolina hasn't given me a reason to think this game will turn out any differently than the last five times these teams have played. Lately, it's been "close but no cigar" for South Carolina.
  
  I take LSU.
• Arkansas at #8 Alabama, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As an Arkansas graduate, I would really like to think that the Razorbacks can win this game.
  
  But I'm a realist. Arkansas hasn't beaten Alabama since 2006. And the Hogs haven't won at Alabama since 2003. In fact, Arkansas has rarely won at Alabama — the Hogs' record there is 3–8.
  
  I'd love to see Arkansas win, but I have to pick Alabama.
• Texas vs. #10 Oklahoma at Dallas, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This is one of those games in which people will say, "The records don't matter." And they are right about that.
  
  When OU and Texas take the field for their annual grudge match, it really doesn't matter what the records are — or whether one team is ranked and the other isn't.
  
  I grew up in the South, and I have seen as many underdogs as favorites win in this series. But I really don't think the 1–4 Longhorns have a prayer against the undefeated Sooners in this year's edition. I take Oklahoma.
• #11 Florida at Missouri, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I'm pretty sure that, when the season began, most observers would have picked a reversal of team roles when this game came up. Missouri was sure to be ranked and Florida was not.
  
  Yet here we are. Florida is barely out of the Top 10 and Missouri is completely out of the rankings.
  
  Does Missouri have anything in its favor in this game? Well, actually, the Tigers won the only other game they played at home against the Gators — two years ago.
  
  Home field can be an awesome thing, but it isn't foolproof. The Gators got an important home win over Ole Miss last week, but I'm still not sold on Florida. I will take Missouri as an upset special.
• Miami (Fla.) at #12 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is one of those traditional Southern rivalries. Florida State's rivalry with Florida probably gets more attention, but there was a time when games matching these two schools were the hottest tickets around.
  
  Florida State has beaten Miami five straight times and in eight of their last 10 meetings.
  
  It is intriguing to note, though, that the visiting team has had the edge in this series. Miami has won nearly 61% of the games it has played at Florida State.
  
  Both teams would be undefeated going into this game if Miami had not lost at Cincinnati last week.
  
  It is tempting to pick Miami as an upset special, but I have to take Florida State.
• #13 Northwestern at #18 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The Wolverines have won 12 of their last 14 games with the Wildcats, but that was then and this is now.
  
  If 5–0 Northwestern is going to establish that it is for real, it needs to win this game. The same could be said of 4–1 Michigan in spite of its two consecutive shutout wins. This is a must–win game for both schools, and history is not on Northwestern's side. The Wolverines are 34–6–2 at home against Northwestern.
  
  I've got to take Michigan.
• New Mexico State at #14 Ole Miss, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This is the first game between these schools so there is no history to study. But all you need to know is New Mexico State is 0–4; Ole Miss, although coming off a loss to Florida, has a win at Alabama to its credit this season.
  
  I expect Ole Miss to win.
• Navy at #15 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These are old foes. They've been playing each other annually since 1927, and the Irish have won more than 85% of the time.
  
  Navy is undefeated, but the Midshipmen's record boasts of no impressive trophies. The Irish are 4–1 following last week's loss at Clemson — which would have turned out differently if the Irish had been able to add a field goal to their score.
  
  I'm taking Notre Dame at home.
• #19 Georgia at Tennessee, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This series dates to 1903, almost 20 years before the cavernous Neyland Stadium in which this year's game will be played was built.
  
  So the teams won't be returning to the site of that first game (which Georgia won 5–0). That game was played at a place named Baldwin Park, which probably doesn't exist anymore.
  
  The teams haven't played every year. This will be their 44th meeting since that first one more than a century ago, and Georgia narrowly leads the all–time series 21–20–2; the series is knotted in Knoxville 10–10–1.
  
  Series momentum is with Georgia. The Bulldogs have won six of the last seven meetings, and since the start of the 21st century, Georgia is 5–2 at Tennessee. The Volunteers have been hit pretty hard in the first month of the season and desperately need a win to get back on track. Georgia was undefeated until losing at home to Alabama last week. It is too steep of a climb for Tennessee; Georgia, on the other hand, can regain much of its lost ground with a bounce–back win on the road. I pick Georgia.
• #21 Oklahoma State at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: West Virginia has won its last two games against Oklahoma State. The 5–0 Cowboys, meanwhile, have struggled at times en route to their #21 ranking.
  
  In all the teams have played each other six times — but the first two times were more than 85 years ago. Even so, Oklahoma State has never won at West Virginia.
  
  For 3–1 West Virginia, this is the second of four consecutive games against Top 25 teams. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma last week and faces #3 Baylor and #2 TCU in the next couple of weeks. The Mountaineers need to win one of these games, so I'll make West Virginia my upset special this week.
• Kent State at #24 Toledo, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: Toledo is a newcomer to the Top 25, but the Kent–Toledo series is not a new one. The teams have played each other 37 times, and Toledo has won nine out of 11 times since 1988.
  
  Toledo has won nearly 85% of its home games against Kent State, and I see no reason for that to change. I pick Toledo.
• #25 Boise State at Colorado State, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: All four games in this series have been played in the last four years, and Boise State has won them all.
  
  I just don't think 2–3 Colorado State can beat Boise State, even at home. I pick Boise State.

Last week: 13–5

Upset specials last week: 0–1

Season: 73–10

Upset specials overall: 2–4

Upsets, Anyone?

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Well, there was no shortage of upsets last week. I just didn't pick 'em.

Duke knocked off #20 Georgia Tech. Michigan blanked #22 Brigham Young. Kentucky topped #25 Missouri. In what was probably a modest upset, #18 Utah hammered #13 Oregon by a not–so–modest margin of 42 points. On top of that, #3 TCU barely got by Texas Tech. Texas threw a scare into #24 Oklahoma State.

And my two upset specials fell flat on their faces. Go figure, right?

There are some intriguing contests on this week's schedule. Five games are head–to–head battles between ranked teams, and a few more are interesting even though they feature only one ranked team. With conference play firmly under way, it looks like the first weekend in October will be an exciting one.

Idle: #10 Utah, #17 Southern Cal

Today

• #1 Ohio State at Indiana, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC/ESPN2: This one of those games that seems to be a waste of time to evaluate. The Buckeyes haven't lost to Indiana since 1988.
  
  In fact they tied the Hoosiers more recently than that — in 1990. However, both of those games did occur in Bloomington, which is where today's game is being played. Does that mean anything? Not really. The Hoosiers only beat the Buckeyes at home one other time — in 1904.
  
  I have to take Ohio State.
• Purdue at #2 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Michigan State has beaten Purdue six straight times. Sometimes the games have been close; more often, though, they have been decided by a couple of touchdowns.
  
  Historically, the odds would be better for Purdue if the Boilermakers were hosting the game. When the Spartans are the hosts, they are historical favorites.
  
  I'd probably be inclined to pick the Spartans even if they were on the road in this one. Purdue is 1–3 with losses to Marshall and Bowling Green.
  
  I pick Michigan State.
• #3 Ole Miss at #25 Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: A lot of folks don't realize it, but Ole Miss actually leads this series 12–10–1.
  
  But the Rebels enjoyed most of their success by 1958; the series leaned heavily to the Gators after that — until fairly recently. Ole Miss has won three of the last four.
  
  Working in the Gators' favor, however, is the fact that the home team tends to win this game, and that is Florida this year.
  
  Of course, this Rebel team isn't intimidated by hostile crowds. After all, they pulled off the remarkable accomplishment of winning at Alabama.
  
  I pick Ole Miss.
• Texas at #4 TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: In the days of the old Southwest Conference, I never would have picked TCU to beat Texas, at least not in my lifetime. It was always a safe bet to pick Texas to triumph over TCU.
  
  But those days are gone, and the roles are reversed today. Texas comes into today's game 1–3; TCU is undefeated. I see no other outcome today. I pick TCU.
• Texas Tech vs. #5 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) at Arlington, Texas, on ABC/ESPN2: Texas Tech came close to beating TCU last week, but that was at home. The Raiders will really be tested in Arlington; if they have been playing over their heads, we'll probably find out today.
  
  I pick Baylor.
• #6 Notre Dame at #12 Clemson, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams played twice in the '70s, once on each campus, and the visiting team won each time.
  
  Many things have changed in 35 years so that probably isn't the best way to pick the winner of a game in 2015 — but I see no reason not to pick Notre Dame so I will go with the Irish.
• Arizona State at #7 UCLA, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This really ought to be a better game than the rankings would suggest. This will be far from a gimme for the Bruins.
  
  The Sun Devils may be 2–2, but those losses were to then–unranked teams that are in the Top 25 now — Texas A&M and Southern Cal. The 4–0 Bruins have beaten consecutive ranked teams that are no longer ranked — Brigham Young and Arizona.
  
  Neither team has been involved in a truly competitive game yet. But that may change because the recent history of this series is one of close contests. Forget about UCLA's 35–point win last year. The three games preceding that one were decided by a combined eight points.
  
  The history of the series also favors the Bruins to win at home, so I will pick UCLA in what could well be a close game.
• #13 Alabama at #8 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Between 1902 and 1944, these teams played 37 times at neutral sites — even though most were in Alabama. The Crimson Tide has dominated at home, in Georgia and at the neutral sites.
  
  But I have a feeling that may change. I think this may be the Bulldogs' year. In my upset special, I pick Georgia.
• Eastern Michigan at #9 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much to say about this. If Eastern Michigan wins at LSU, it will rank as the biggest upset so far this season.
  
  But I think it is more likely that the LSU starters are removed from the game by halftime. I pick LSU.
• #11 Florida State at Wake Forest, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: In a series that dates back to 1956, Florida State has beaten Wake Forest 70% of the time on Wake Forest's turf.
  
  Yet two of Wake Forest's most recent wins over Florida State have come at home, in 2007 and 2011. That would every four years, which means that today's winner should be Wake Forest. Right? Well, Wake Forest is 2–2 and coming off a loss to Indiana, probably one of the worst programs in major college football.
  
  I have to take Florida State.
• #21 Mississippi State at #14 Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: These teams have met eight times, but half of their games were played before the start of World War II.
  
  There is certainly plenty of motivation on both sides.
  
  The Bulldogs won last year en route to grabbing the top ranking for awhile, but they have struggled a bit this year. They lost a heartbreaker at LSU, then rallied for an important road win against Auburn. If they can beat the Aggies, it seems more than likely that they will be 8–1 when they face Alabama in November.
  
  I keep expecting the undefeated Aggies to come crashing back to earth, now that SEC play has begun. If they can get past the Bulldogs today, they will have two weeks to prepare for Alabama.
  
  I take Texas A&M at home.
• #23 West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: It has been more than 30 years since Oklahoma's last loss to West Virginia in Norman. Of course, they haven't played each other regularly in that time, just since West Virginia joined the Big 12, and that has included only one date in Norman, but the Sooners have won all three games that have been played as conference games.
  
  The rankings suggest a good game, and I am tempted to make West Virginia an upset special, but I will take Oklahoma at home.
• Minnesota at #16 Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Minnesota has dominated this series, which dates back to the 19th century, and has won the last two games, but Northwestern has been the team on the rise this season.
  
  Here's an interesting historical trend in this series. For more than 20 years, the teams have taken turns being the winner in games played at Northwestern — if Northwestern won the last time they played on Northwestern's field, Minnesota would win the next time. It's been that way since 1993.
  
  But that was then. Minnesota enters this game 3–1, with that sole loss being by merely six points to then–second–ranked TCU in the season opener. Of course, the Gophers have won three straight against teams that aren't likely to still be playing after Thanksgiving, but the loss to TCU was impressive.
  
  Even so, I will pick Northwestern to prevail.
• Arizona at #18 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Originally, this series leaned fairly heavily to Arizona State, but Stanford has won eight of the last 10 encounters and the teams enter tonight's game tied, 14–14.
  
  Stanford has bounced back from the opening weekend setback at Northwestern and seems to be living up to expectations now. I pick Stanford to continue to ride its momentum in this series.
• Iowa at #19 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Not so long ago, this matchup would have been one of those head–to–head Top 25 confrontations. But Iowa has fallen on rather hard times — and out of the rankings. That certainly would change if currently undefeated Iowa could beat Wisconsin. Can the Hawkeyes do it?
  
  Well, Iowa beat Wisconsin the last time the teams played in Wisconsin — but the Badgers lead the all–time series on their home turf, 25–18–1. It ought to be good, but I will take Wisconsin.
• Kansas State at #20 Oklahoma State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: In recent years when K–State has hosted this game, the outcomes have tended to be lopsided. It's the games that have been played in Stillwater — as this one will be — that have been the most exciting.
  
  OSU has beaten Kansas State four straight times in Stillwater, but the outcomes of each game could have been altered by a single score. I'm sure that is the kind of game Fox Sports 1 is hoping for. I don't know if it will meet those expectations, but I pick Oklahoma State to win at home.
• #22 Michigan at Maryland, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This is the fifth time these schools have met on the gridiron — and each game has been played in Maryland. They faced each other as conference rivals for the first time last year. That was also the first time Maryland has beaten Michigan. I would have figured this year's game would be in Ann Arbor. Maybe next year.
  
  The Wolverines probably don't care so much about that, now that they are back in the Top 25 for the first time in I don't know how long.
  
  When I was growing up, Michigan was a fixture in the rankings. In recent years, not so much. I figure Michigan will stay in the rankings, at least for another week with a victory in this game.
• Washington State at #24 Cal, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These Pac–12 rivals have played 76 times since 1919, and Cal dominates the series 45–26–5.
  
  In fact, the Bears have won nine of the last 10 meetings — but that single loss came two years ago, the last time they played on Cal's turf. Washington State doubled up Cal, 44–22. I'm pretty sure the Bears would like to avenge that one, and I think they will. I pick California.

Last week: 14–6

Upset specials last week: 0–2

Season: 74–11

Upset specials overall: 2–3