As Usual, OU-Texas Defies Logic

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Some things are universally acknowledged to be the midway points of things. The Fourth of July, for example, is generally recognized as the unofficial midpoint of summer.

And the Oklahoma–Texas game generally signifies the midpoint of the college football season.

I've experienced that rivalry several different ways. I grew up in Arkansas, and the OU–Texas game was always interesting for us because Arkansas almost always played Texas the week after the OU game. Razorback fans took the annually televised clashes as opportunities to scout the Texas team and form opinions about what the Razorbacks should do. (I always knew what they needed to do — score more points than Texas, but they didn't do that very much.)

I went to graduate school in Denton, Texas, and I lived near the interstate. Every year, I could see the steady stream of traffic traveling south from Oklahoma.

Then, for four years, I was on the OU journalism faculty, and I was an unofficial adviser to the newspaper staff. OU–Texas week was always entertaining around the OU newsroom.

I've been in Texas for quite awhile now, in Dallas, no less, which is, of course, where the game is played every year.

As I observed last week, I've been watching this series most of my life, and I have seen the favorite lose the game about as often as win it. I should have picked the Longhorns to win. Their coach had his back to the wall — still does, even after beating the Sooners 24–17. But I made my prediction based on logic. That was my big mistake. You can't use logic when you're dealing with the OU–Texas game.

Idle: #16 Oklahoma State, #23 California, #25 Duke

Tonight

• #18 UCLA at #15 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford is currently riding the longest winning streak in the history of this series — seven straight wins.
  
  UCLA hasn't beaten Stanford since 2008 and hasn't won at Stanford since 2007. And there is more history that favors Stanford: The home team usually wins in this series, although things have been closer in games at Stanford than at UCLA.
  
  The historical momentum seems to be with Stanford — although there are a couple of mitigating factors to keep in mind. The rankings are very close; while not scientific, that does suggest that, midway through the season, the teams are seen as being relatively even. Also, since Stanford's winning streak is already the longest in series history, that suggests that the pendulum may be about to swing back.
  
  I expect a good game, but I'll go with the home team, Stanford.

Friday

• #21 Boise State at Utah State, 8 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: Boise State is 12–2 all time against Utah State, which includes a 5–1 mark in games at Utah State.
  
  This ought to be a better game than most people probably expect. Boise State is 5–1; Utah State is 3–2. But Boise State is on a 12–game winning streak — and frequently rolls up big scores. I pick Boise State.
• #24 Houston at Tulane, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Houston wins about three–quarters of the time in this series, but Tulane snapped a 10–year losing streak last season with a 31–24 road win.
  
  Setting aside history — even recent history — 5–0 Houston seems too much for 2–3 Tulane to overcome. I will take Houston.

Saturday

• Penn State at #1 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, Ohio State leads its series with Penn State 17–13, and the Buckeyes are 10–7 against the Nittany Lions when the game is played in Columbus, Ohio.
  
  Penn State lost its opener against Temple but has reeled off five straight wins since. The problem, though, is that none of the teams, not even the one that beat Penn State, is very good. The second half of the season promises to be much more difficult for the Nittany Lions; four of their last six opponents, starting with this one, are currently ranked.
  
  I don't think the Lions have the horses to stay with the Buckeyes. I pick Ohio State.
• West Virginia at #2 Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have only played each other three times — in the last three years since West Virginia joined the Big 12 Conference. The home team has won each game, which means Baylor won the only other game played in Waco — by the score of 73–42.
  
  There has been a lot of scoring in those three games. When Baylor was held to 27 points in last year's loss, that was the low–water mark for scoring in this series.
  
  West Virginia might be held below that this time, but I think Baylor will win by a wide margin. In the Bears' first five games, their lowest score was the 56 points they scored against SMU on Labor Day weekend.
  
  I pick Baylor.
• #3 TCU at Iowa State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: TCU is 5–1 all time against Iowa State — a basketball school that has seldom had a decent football team. In fact, Iowa State has only one bowl victory in the last decade.
  
  I expect TCU to win.
• Arizona State at #4 Utah, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: When the season began, Arizona State was much more highly regarded. But the Sun Devils staggered to a 2–2 start with losses to Texas A&M and Southern Cal. They followed that, however, with wins over UCLA and Colorado and currently stand 2–1 in Pac–12 play.
  
  The 5–0 Utes face Southern Cal next week, but they aren't slated to face a ranked team again until near the end of the season. That kind of thing can make a team complacent — and might suggest an opportunity for Arizona State on Saturday night.
  
  But I don't think so. I think Utah will prevail.
• Boston College at #5 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Seventy–five years ago, these teams met for the first time — in the Jan. 1, 1940 Cotton Bowl. Clemson won.
  
  They've met 23 times since then, always on one campus or the other. No neutral sites, not even in the years when theirs was a nonconference game. At Clemson, the Tigers are 5–3–1 against the Eagles. The Tigers also have an edge, albeit smaller, at Boston College.
  
  But what that doesn't tell you is the Tigers have won six of the last seven contests with the Eagles.
  
  I'll take Clemson.
• #11 Florida at #6 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Is 6–0 Florida for real? I guess we'll find out this week.
  
  The Gators won their first two SEC games — against Kentucky and Tennessee — by a total of six points. In the last couple of weeks, they have clobbered Ole Miss and Missouri. If they win this game, they will have two weeks to prepare for what will probably be their final test — against Georgia.
  
  It won't be easy, but Florida should not be in awe of Death Valley, as so many teams are. The Gators are 16–15 there although LSU has won the last two meetings in Baton Rouge.
  
  The Gators may prove to be the better team, but I am leaning heavily to LSU.
• #7 Michigan State at #12 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Michigan leads this series of in–state rivals, but Michigan State has held the upper hand lately, winning six of the last seven meetings.
  
  The Spartans have played pretty well in the Big House, too, although Michigan still wins there about two–thirds of the time.
  
  The 5–1 Wolverines have been impressive, especially on defense. They have shut out their last three opponents, and they have allowed fewer than 10 points in five straight games. Utah, in the season opener, is the only team so far to score more than 10 points against the Wolverines in Michigan's only loss to date.
  
  Michigan State, on the other hand, has been lackluster en route to its 5–0 mark, struggling to beat Purdue and Rutgers in the last couple of games.
  
  Based on the rankings, this qualifies as an upset special, but I don't think it will be an upset when the dust from the season settles. I pick Michigan.
• Louisville at #8 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 13th time these schools have faced each other, and Florida State is 11–1 in those previous games. What is more, Florida State is 7–0 at home against Louisville.
  
  Louisville has a 2–3 record, but that is deceiving. Louisville came within a field goal of now–fifth–ranked Clemson and lost by a touchdown to then–sixth–ranked Auburn. At 5–0, Florida State is imposing, especially at home, where the Seminoles haven't lost since 2012.
  
  I expect Florida State to win there again.
• #10 Alabama at #9 Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is probably the SEC's game of the season — so far. No doubt more intriguing matchups are still to come, but right now this must rank as the game of the season — Ole Miss' win at Alabama notwithstanding.
  
  This will be the third time they have played in College Station, and Alabama won both of the previous matchups — the most recent being a 49–42 shootout in 2013.
  
  As much as the Aggies would love to win this one at home, I'm going to pick Alabama to continue its dominance.
• #13 Ole Miss at Memphis, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Memphis is 5&ndashl0, only one win away from clinching a bowl bid, and I am sure the Tigers will get it, too. Just not this week.
  
  These teams have been practically annual foes since 1921, and Ole Miss has won more than 80% of the time. The Rebels are currently riding a six–year winning streak against Memphis that included a 24–3 triumph over last year's squad. In the last 20 years, Ole Miss has only lost in Memphis once.
  
  Got to take Ole Miss in this one.
• Southern Cal at #14 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams first played each other in Knute Rockne's day, and they have been playing annually since 1946. The historical record favors the home team, which is Notre Dame this year, and the Irish did beat Southern Cal the last time they played in South Bend, but the Trojans won the previous five times they played there.
  
  I've had misgivings about both teams from the start. Southern Cal (3–2) was pretty highly regarded heading into this season but last week's loss to Washington knocked the Trojans out of the Top 25. Notre Dame (5–1) just hasn't really impressed me. This is the game to impress people, a rivalry game.
  
  I'm going to make Southern Cal an upset special.
• #17 Iowa at #20 Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Overall, Iowa wins about two–thirds of the time, but the series has been more evenly divided in recent years.
  
  In fact between 2005 and 2012, Northwestern had a 6–2 record against Iowa.
  
  This year's matchup is intriguing. It could have been a battle of unbeatens, but Northwestern was blanked by a Michigan team that increasingly appears to be the real deal. Still Northwestern has won three of its last four home games against Iowa.
  
  It should be good. I'll take Northwestern at home.
• #19 Oklahoma at Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, Oklahoma wins more than 75% of the time against Kansas State. And, after losing a shocker to unranked Texas last week, the Sooners could use a confidence–builder like a win over the Wildcats.
  
  But 3–2 Kansas State won't roll over for 4–1 Oklahoma. And the Sooners' current five–game winning streak at K–State is bound to be used as a motivator for someone. In my upset special, I say Kansas State will prevail.
• Eastern Michigan at #22 Toledo, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: Toledo has an eight–game winning streak against Eastern Michigan and is 16–3 at home.
  
  The 1–5 Eagles appear to be no match for the unbeaten Rockets. I pick Toledo.

Last week: 14–5

Upset specials last week: 0–2

Season: 87–15

Upset specials overall: 2–6

Must-Win Games Midway Through the Season ...

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It is time again for the Oklahoma–Texas game. In the past, that game often decided which team stayed in the national championship conversation. This year, if speculation is correct, it may determine whether Texas, currently 1–4, is still in the chase for a bowl bid.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

My alma mater, the University of Arkansas, isn't doing much better at 2–3 so a lot is at stake for the Razorbacks when they travel to Alabama this weekend.

College football always seems to be that way, though. Every game seems to be a must–win game now. Heck, I heard some people talking about must–win games back on Labor Day weekend.

Idle: #9 Texas A&M, #16 Stanford

Today

• Washington at #17 Southern Cal, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Southern Cal wins nearly two–thirds of the time it faces Pac–12 rival Washington — about three–fourths of the time when they play in Los Angeles.
  
  In their last 13 meetings, Southern Cal has won 10. The weight of history is clearly against the Huskies.
  
  But every once in awhile they pull off an upset, as they did in 2010 when they claimed a one–point triumph in L.A.
  
  I really don't think that will happen this time. I have to take Southern Cal.

Saturday

• Maryland at #1 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Ohio State barely survived hapless Indiana last week and will be looking for an impressive victory over the Terps to justify the Buckeyes' continued presence atop the polls.
  
  This will be only the second meeting between the Buckeyes and the Terps. They met last season in College Park, Md., where Ohio State cruised to a 52–24 victory. I expect a similar result in Columbus. I have to take Ohio State.
• #2 TCU at Kansas State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: In eight previous meetings, each school has won four times so the winner will take the lead in the all–time series.
  
  It's a series that favors the home team; TCU is 3–1 at home, and so is Kansas State. I don't think that will matter in this year's game. Five of the eight previous encounters occurred at least 30 years ago.
  
  The rankings are more telling, and I expect TCU to prevail.
• #3 Baylor at Kansas, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: This one looks like a mismatch.
  
  Even in the days when Baylor had little in the way of a football team, the Bears beat the Jayhawks — who never have much of a football team.
  
  Baylor has won seven of the last nine meetings and is 10–4 all time against Kansas. Baylor's current five–game winning streak against Kansas has included some particularly brutal scores. Last year, for example, Baylor won at Waco, 60–14.
  
  If there is one thing in Kansas' favor, it is the fact that the Jayhawks are 4–3 at home against the Bears. All their previous wins have come in Lawrence.
  
  I don't think that will be enough, though. I pick Baylor.
• #4 Michigan State at Rutgers, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Believe it or not, this series is tied 3–3, and Rutgers actually has won two of the last three meetings.
  
  The Spartans are undefeated, but they haven't been as impressive as they needed to be. They have a chance to win at Rutgers for the first time in school history and avenge that five–point loss back in 2004.
  
  I think Michigan State will win. Whether it will be impressive remains to be seen.
• #23 California at #5 Utah, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Cal leads the all&ndashltime series — narrowly and largely on the strength of its record at home. Utah has dominated on its turf.
  
  Of course, it is important to remember that these teams have played at Utah only three times before, and it has been more than 50 years since Cal won at Utah.
  
  I think it should be a good game, but I don't think Cal will end the skid. I pick Utah to win.
• Georgia Tech at #6 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 79th meeting of these schools since 1902, and Georgia Tech has won about two–thirds of the time.
  
  That mirrors precisely the last 12 encounters between these teams. Georgia Tech has won two–thirds of the time, including six years ago when Georgia Tech beat Clemson for the ACC title.
  
  Georgia Tech has lost its last three games and appears to be no match for the undefeated Tigers, especially on Clemson's field, where the Tigers have lost only 16 times since the start of the 2003 season.
  
  I predict a Clemson win.
• #7 LSU at South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have played 20 times. South Carolina won the first meeting in 1930 — and has only won once since.
  
  That other win, which came in 1994, was South Carolina's only home win against LSU.
  
  It is one of the most lopsided series in college football. and 2–3 South Carolina hasn't given me a reason to think this game will turn out any differently than the last five times these teams have played. Lately, it's been "close but no cigar" for South Carolina.
  
  I take LSU.
• Arkansas at #8 Alabama, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As an Arkansas graduate, I would really like to think that the Razorbacks can win this game.
  
  But I'm a realist. Arkansas hasn't beaten Alabama since 2006. And the Hogs haven't won at Alabama since 2003. In fact, Arkansas has rarely won at Alabama — the Hogs' record there is 3–8.
  
  I'd love to see Arkansas win, but I have to pick Alabama.
• Texas vs. #10 Oklahoma at Dallas, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This is one of those games in which people will say, "The records don't matter." And they are right about that.
  
  When OU and Texas take the field for their annual grudge match, it really doesn't matter what the records are — or whether one team is ranked and the other isn't.
  
  I grew up in the South, and I have seen as many underdogs as favorites win in this series. But I really don't think the 1–4 Longhorns have a prayer against the undefeated Sooners in this year's edition. I take Oklahoma.
• #11 Florida at Missouri, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I'm pretty sure that, when the season began, most observers would have picked a reversal of team roles when this game came up. Missouri was sure to be ranked and Florida was not.
  
  Yet here we are. Florida is barely out of the Top 10 and Missouri is completely out of the rankings.
  
  Does Missouri have anything in its favor in this game? Well, actually, the Tigers won the only other game they played at home against the Gators — two years ago.
  
  Home field can be an awesome thing, but it isn't foolproof. The Gators got an important home win over Ole Miss last week, but I'm still not sold on Florida. I will take Missouri as an upset special.
• Miami (Fla.) at #12 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is one of those traditional Southern rivalries. Florida State's rivalry with Florida probably gets more attention, but there was a time when games matching these two schools were the hottest tickets around.
  
  Florida State has beaten Miami five straight times and in eight of their last 10 meetings.
  
  It is intriguing to note, though, that the visiting team has had the edge in this series. Miami has won nearly 61% of the games it has played at Florida State.
  
  Both teams would be undefeated going into this game if Miami had not lost at Cincinnati last week.
  
  It is tempting to pick Miami as an upset special, but I have to take Florida State.
• #13 Northwestern at #18 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The Wolverines have won 12 of their last 14 games with the Wildcats, but that was then and this is now.
  
  If 5–0 Northwestern is going to establish that it is for real, it needs to win this game. The same could be said of 4–1 Michigan in spite of its two consecutive shutout wins. This is a must–win game for both schools, and history is not on Northwestern's side. The Wolverines are 34–6–2 at home against Northwestern.
  
  I've got to take Michigan.
• New Mexico State at #14 Ole Miss, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This is the first game between these schools so there is no history to study. But all you need to know is New Mexico State is 0–4; Ole Miss, although coming off a loss to Florida, has a win at Alabama to its credit this season.
  
  I expect Ole Miss to win.
• Navy at #15 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These are old foes. They've been playing each other annually since 1927, and the Irish have won more than 85% of the time.
  
  Navy is undefeated, but the Midshipmen's record boasts of no impressive trophies. The Irish are 4–1 following last week's loss at Clemson — which would have turned out differently if the Irish had been able to add a field goal to their score.
  
  I'm taking Notre Dame at home.
• #19 Georgia at Tennessee, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This series dates to 1903, almost 20 years before the cavernous Neyland Stadium in which this year's game will be played was built.
  
  So the teams won't be returning to the site of that first game (which Georgia won 5–0). That game was played at a place named Baldwin Park, which probably doesn't exist anymore.
  
  The teams haven't played every year. This will be their 44th meeting since that first one more than a century ago, and Georgia narrowly leads the all–time series 21–20–2; the series is knotted in Knoxville 10–10–1.
  
  Series momentum is with Georgia. The Bulldogs have won six of the last seven meetings, and since the start of the 21st century, Georgia is 5–2 at Tennessee. The Volunteers have been hit pretty hard in the first month of the season and desperately need a win to get back on track. Georgia was undefeated until losing at home to Alabama last week. It is too steep of a climb for Tennessee; Georgia, on the other hand, can regain much of its lost ground with a bounce–back win on the road. I pick Georgia.
• #21 Oklahoma State at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: West Virginia has won its last two games against Oklahoma State. The 5–0 Cowboys, meanwhile, have struggled at times en route to their #21 ranking.
  
  In all the teams have played each other six times — but the first two times were more than 85 years ago. Even so, Oklahoma State has never won at West Virginia.
  
  For 3–1 West Virginia, this is the second of four consecutive games against Top 25 teams. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma last week and faces #3 Baylor and #2 TCU in the next couple of weeks. The Mountaineers need to win one of these games, so I'll make West Virginia my upset special this week.
• Kent State at #24 Toledo, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: Toledo is a newcomer to the Top 25, but the Kent–Toledo series is not a new one. The teams have played each other 37 times, and Toledo has won nine out of 11 times since 1988.
  
  Toledo has won nearly 85% of its home games against Kent State, and I see no reason for that to change. I pick Toledo.
• #25 Boise State at Colorado State, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: All four games in this series have been played in the last four years, and Boise State has won them all.
  
  I just don't think 2–3 Colorado State can beat Boise State, even at home. I pick Boise State.

Last week: 13–5

Upset specials last week: 0–1

Season: 73–10

Upset specials overall: 2–4

Upsets, Anyone?

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Well, there was no shortage of upsets last week. I just didn't pick 'em.

Duke knocked off #20 Georgia Tech. Michigan blanked #22 Brigham Young. Kentucky topped #25 Missouri. In what was probably a modest upset, #18 Utah hammered #13 Oregon by a not–so–modest margin of 42 points. On top of that, #3 TCU barely got by Texas Tech. Texas threw a scare into #24 Oklahoma State.

And my two upset specials fell flat on their faces. Go figure, right?

There are some intriguing contests on this week's schedule. Five games are head–to–head battles between ranked teams, and a few more are interesting even though they feature only one ranked team. With conference play firmly under way, it looks like the first weekend in October will be an exciting one.

Idle: #10 Utah, #17 Southern Cal

Today

• #1 Ohio State at Indiana, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC/ESPN2: This one of those games that seems to be a waste of time to evaluate. The Buckeyes haven't lost to Indiana since 1988.
  
  In fact they tied the Hoosiers more recently than that — in 1990. However, both of those games did occur in Bloomington, which is where today's game is being played. Does that mean anything? Not really. The Hoosiers only beat the Buckeyes at home one other time — in 1904.
  
  I have to take Ohio State.
• Purdue at #2 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Michigan State has beaten Purdue six straight times. Sometimes the games have been close; more often, though, they have been decided by a couple of touchdowns.
  
  Historically, the odds would be better for Purdue if the Boilermakers were hosting the game. When the Spartans are the hosts, they are historical favorites.
  
  I'd probably be inclined to pick the Spartans even if they were on the road in this one. Purdue is 1–3 with losses to Marshall and Bowling Green.
  
  I pick Michigan State.
• #3 Ole Miss at #25 Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: A lot of folks don't realize it, but Ole Miss actually leads this series 12–10–1.
  
  But the Rebels enjoyed most of their success by 1958; the series leaned heavily to the Gators after that — until fairly recently. Ole Miss has won three of the last four.
  
  Working in the Gators' favor, however, is the fact that the home team tends to win this game, and that is Florida this year.
  
  Of course, this Rebel team isn't intimidated by hostile crowds. After all, they pulled off the remarkable accomplishment of winning at Alabama.
  
  I pick Ole Miss.
• Texas at #4 TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: In the days of the old Southwest Conference, I never would have picked TCU to beat Texas, at least not in my lifetime. It was always a safe bet to pick Texas to triumph over TCU.
  
  But those days are gone, and the roles are reversed today. Texas comes into today's game 1–3; TCU is undefeated. I see no other outcome today. I pick TCU.
• Texas Tech vs. #5 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) at Arlington, Texas, on ABC/ESPN2: Texas Tech came close to beating TCU last week, but that was at home. The Raiders will really be tested in Arlington; if they have been playing over their heads, we'll probably find out today.
  
  I pick Baylor.
• #6 Notre Dame at #12 Clemson, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams played twice in the '70s, once on each campus, and the visiting team won each time.
  
  Many things have changed in 35 years so that probably isn't the best way to pick the winner of a game in 2015 — but I see no reason not to pick Notre Dame so I will go with the Irish.
• Arizona State at #7 UCLA, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This really ought to be a better game than the rankings would suggest. This will be far from a gimme for the Bruins.
  
  The Sun Devils may be 2–2, but those losses were to then–unranked teams that are in the Top 25 now — Texas A&M and Southern Cal. The 4–0 Bruins have beaten consecutive ranked teams that are no longer ranked — Brigham Young and Arizona.
  
  Neither team has been involved in a truly competitive game yet. But that may change because the recent history of this series is one of close contests. Forget about UCLA's 35–point win last year. The three games preceding that one were decided by a combined eight points.
  
  The history of the series also favors the Bruins to win at home, so I will pick UCLA in what could well be a close game.
• #13 Alabama at #8 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Between 1902 and 1944, these teams played 37 times at neutral sites — even though most were in Alabama. The Crimson Tide has dominated at home, in Georgia and at the neutral sites.
  
  But I have a feeling that may change. I think this may be the Bulldogs' year. In my upset special, I pick Georgia.
• Eastern Michigan at #9 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much to say about this. If Eastern Michigan wins at LSU, it will rank as the biggest upset so far this season.
  
  But I think it is more likely that the LSU starters are removed from the game by halftime. I pick LSU.
• #11 Florida State at Wake Forest, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: In a series that dates back to 1956, Florida State has beaten Wake Forest 70% of the time on Wake Forest's turf.
  
  Yet two of Wake Forest's most recent wins over Florida State have come at home, in 2007 and 2011. That would every four years, which means that today's winner should be Wake Forest. Right? Well, Wake Forest is 2–2 and coming off a loss to Indiana, probably one of the worst programs in major college football.
  
  I have to take Florida State.
• #21 Mississippi State at #14 Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: These teams have met eight times, but half of their games were played before the start of World War II.
  
  There is certainly plenty of motivation on both sides.
  
  The Bulldogs won last year en route to grabbing the top ranking for awhile, but they have struggled a bit this year. They lost a heartbreaker at LSU, then rallied for an important road win against Auburn. If they can beat the Aggies, it seems more than likely that they will be 8–1 when they face Alabama in November.
  
  I keep expecting the undefeated Aggies to come crashing back to earth, now that SEC play has begun. If they can get past the Bulldogs today, they will have two weeks to prepare for Alabama.
  
  I take Texas A&M at home.
• #23 West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: It has been more than 30 years since Oklahoma's last loss to West Virginia in Norman. Of course, they haven't played each other regularly in that time, just since West Virginia joined the Big 12, and that has included only one date in Norman, but the Sooners have won all three games that have been played as conference games.
  
  The rankings suggest a good game, and I am tempted to make West Virginia an upset special, but I will take Oklahoma at home.
• Minnesota at #16 Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Minnesota has dominated this series, which dates back to the 19th century, and has won the last two games, but Northwestern has been the team on the rise this season.
  
  Here's an interesting historical trend in this series. For more than 20 years, the teams have taken turns being the winner in games played at Northwestern — if Northwestern won the last time they played on Northwestern's field, Minnesota would win the next time. It's been that way since 1993.
  
  But that was then. Minnesota enters this game 3–1, with that sole loss being by merely six points to then–second–ranked TCU in the season opener. Of course, the Gophers have won three straight against teams that aren't likely to still be playing after Thanksgiving, but the loss to TCU was impressive.
  
  Even so, I will pick Northwestern to prevail.
• Arizona at #18 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Originally, this series leaned fairly heavily to Arizona State, but Stanford has won eight of the last 10 encounters and the teams enter tonight's game tied, 14–14.
  
  Stanford has bounced back from the opening weekend setback at Northwestern and seems to be living up to expectations now. I pick Stanford to continue to ride its momentum in this series.
• Iowa at #19 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Not so long ago, this matchup would have been one of those head–to–head Top 25 confrontations. But Iowa has fallen on rather hard times — and out of the rankings. That certainly would change if currently undefeated Iowa could beat Wisconsin. Can the Hawkeyes do it?
  
  Well, Iowa beat Wisconsin the last time the teams played in Wisconsin — but the Badgers lead the all–time series on their home turf, 25–18–1. It ought to be good, but I will take Wisconsin.
• Kansas State at #20 Oklahoma State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: In recent years when K–State has hosted this game, the outcomes have tended to be lopsided. It's the games that have been played in Stillwater — as this one will be — that have been the most exciting.
  
  OSU has beaten Kansas State four straight times in Stillwater, but the outcomes of each game could have been altered by a single score. I'm sure that is the kind of game Fox Sports 1 is hoping for. I don't know if it will meet those expectations, but I pick Oklahoma State to win at home.
• #22 Michigan at Maryland, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This is the fifth time these schools have met on the gridiron — and each game has been played in Maryland. They faced each other as conference rivals for the first time last year. That was also the first time Maryland has beaten Michigan. I would have figured this year's game would be in Ann Arbor. Maybe next year.
  
  The Wolverines probably don't care so much about that, now that they are back in the Top 25 for the first time in I don't know how long.
  
  When I was growing up, Michigan was a fixture in the rankings. In recent years, not so much. I figure Michigan will stay in the rankings, at least for another week with a victory in this game.
• Washington State at #24 Cal, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These Pac–12 rivals have played 76 times since 1919, and Cal dominates the series 45–26–5.
  
  In fact, the Bears have won nine of the last 10 meetings — but that single loss came two years ago, the last time they played on Cal's turf. Washington State doubled up Cal, 44–22. I'm pretty sure the Bears would like to avenge that one, and I think they will. I pick California.

Last week: 14–6

Upset specials last week: 0–2

Season: 74–11

Upset specials overall: 2–3

If Ole Miss Can Win at Alabama, I Guess Anything Can Happen

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You know, I had a pretty good week last week. I picked 95% of the games involving Top 25 teams correctly — including my upset special pick of Stanford over Southern Cal. Yep, it was a pretty good week.

But the one prediction that I got wrong would have made the most remarkable upset special of them all — Ole Miss' victory at Alabama. I really don't think anyone could have possibly picked that one — except, maybe, a few bold folks from Mississippi. As I pointed out last week, Ole Miss had only prevailed at Alabama once in the history of the series — and Ole Miss' home win in 2014 was the Crimson Tide's only blemish last season until its loss on New Year's Day to eventual national champion Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. The Crimson Tide had plenty of motivation.

Again, I'm quite sure no one saw that outcome in Tuscaloosa coming.

Idle: #10 Florida State, #11 Clemson, #15 Oklahoma

Friday

• #21 Stanford at Oregon State, 9 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Stanford leads this series that goes back to 1919 and has won the last five in a row.
  
  I think Stanford is over that stumble against Northwestern in the first game of the season, and I expect Stanford to win this game.

Saturday

• Western Michigan at #1 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: A week ago, Western Michigan probably had no hope of staying on the same field with top–ranked Ohio State. But that was before Northern Illinois came to town and wound up losing by only a touchdown.
  
  It can't happen, you say? Well, keep in mind that this Western Michigan team lost by only 13 points to Michigan State three weeks ago. But they say lightning rarely strikes twice in the same place so I pick Ohio State to be focused and to prevail.
• Central Michigan at #2 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This will be the 10th time these teams have met, and Michigan State wins about two–thirds of the time.
  
  But Central Michigan victories don't all date back to sometime in the 20th century. Central Michigan beat Michigan State in 2009. That was in East Lansing, where nearly every game in the series (except the most recent one, in 2012) has been played. A Central Michigan win is possible — but not probable.
  
  I'll take Michigan State.
• #3 TCU at Texas Tech, 3:45 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was growing up, these teams were in the Southwest Conference. They seldom did much in the way of winning conference games, but their series, which predates their conference rivalries, has always been competitive.
  
  I'm inclined to pick TCU — until I am reminded that the Horned Frogs haven't won in Lubbock in more than 20 years — and it has been more than 40 years since TCU beat Texas Tech in back–to–back seasons (TCU won in Fort Worth last year, 82–27).
  
  And Texas Tech is better this season. I watched the Red Raiders beat my alma mater last weekend, and they looked better than they did last year. Will it be enough? I think it will be much closer than last year, but I think TCU will prevail.
• Vanderbilt at #4 Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Isn't it amazing what a win at Alabama can do for a team? The Rebels are suddenly the fourth–ranked team in the nation.
  
  This really could be a good spot for Vanderbilt to pull off a shocker.
  
  It could happen. Vanderbilt has won the last three times the Commodores have visited Ole Miss. But the momentum is with the Rebels, who have won the last two times the teams have played.
  
  I pick Ole Miss.
• Rice at #5 Baylor, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports Network: It is really hard for me to imagine Rice winning this game.
  
  Baylor has won its last six encounters with the Owls, and I have seen nothing to suggest that Rice can win in Waco. After all, the Owls haven't won there since the teams were in the old Southwest Conference.
  
  I have to take Baylor.
• Massachusetts at #6 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This will be the first– ever meeting between these schools. I don't know if the Irish are as good as their record suggests, but I'll take Notre Dame at home.
• Southern at #7 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Sometimes there just isn't anything to say.
  
  I fully expect Georgia to win.
• #8 LSU at Syracuse, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met twice, both times in bowl games, and each team emerged with a victory.
  
  Their last meeting was more than 26 years ago so there is little to be learned from that.
  
  It was more instructive to observe LSU taking apart Auburn last weekend, and I expect LSU to take apart Syracuse this weekend.
• #9 UCLA at #16 Arizona, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: UCLA has won the last three meetings, but Arizona won the five before that.
  
  It's been a close series at Arizona. The home team has a 10–9 all–time advantage so, obviously, this is the Bruins' opportunity to even the series. And that is what I expect to happen. I pick UCLA.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #12 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Louisiana–Monroe has pulled off some upsets in recent years, but let's be clear about something. Alabama hasn't lost consecutive regular–season games since 2007.
  
  That also happens to be the last time Alabama lost consecutive regular–season home games, too.
  
  The planets aren't lined up just right for Louisiana–Monroe. Give me Alabama.
• #18 Utah at #13 Oregon, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Oregon has dominated this series, winning more than 70% all time and six of the last seven. The Ducks have been even more dominant at home. Their last loss at home to Utah was in 1994.
  
  Can Utah end the skid? The rankings suggest a close contest, but I expect Oregon to win.
• #14 Texas A&M vs. Arkansas at Dallas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: For two weeks now, I have endured Arkansas losses that should not have been losses. Now, the Razorbacks face the Aggies, a game they should have won last year and, until a couple of weeks ago, expected them to win this year.
  
  Now I'm not so sure.
  
  It would be just like the Razorbacks I grew up following to get off to a sloppy start when great things were expected, then to play well when all expectations had evaporated.
  
  So, for no particular reason — other than the one that I just gave — I will make Arkansas my upset special.
• Ball State at #17 Northwestern, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I don't know much about Ball State — except that my impression has been that it is mostly a basketball school.
  
  I don't know much more about Northwestern, but the Wildcats have been playing well so I will take Northwestern.
• #19 Southern Cal at Arizona State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Arizona State has been a thorn in Southern Cal's side in recent years, winning three of their last four meetings.
  
  Arizona State was merely a nuisance in the 11 games prior to that — all won by Southern Cal. ASU won last year's game by four points, and that one was played in Los Angeles. I'm going to go with the home team in this game and make Arizona State my second upset special.
• #20 Georgia Tech at Duke, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Georgia Tech has won 90% of its games with Duke in the last 20 years, but Duke won last year's match by six points.
  
  In fact, prior to 1995, the series was close with Georgia Tech leading 32–29–1. It has only been in the last couple of decades that Tech has seized total control of the series.
  
  I expect the dominance to continue. Give me Georgia Tech.
• Hawaii at #22 Wisconsin, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This will actually be the seventh time these schools have faced each other. Hawaii won the first meeting, back in 1986, and Wisconsin won the rest. All but one of the games have been played in Hawaii, and Hawaii lost the only time the game was played in Wisconsin.
  
  I expect Wisconsin to even the score.
• #23 Brigham Young at Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This a rematch of the 1984 Holiday Bowl — in which undefeated BYU prevailed by a touchdown, securing its only national championship.
  
  I'm hoping for a good game. In the end, though, I think Michigan's program is struggling, and BYU probably will win by 10 points or more.
• #24 Oklahoma State at Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Over the years, Texas has been one of those teams that has dominated virtually everyone the Longhorns have faced. Oklahoma State has been no exception.
  
  But the UT program has been down lately, which tends to make historical inferences rather hard to make.
  
  In this case, though, there is an historical trend that seems relevant. OSU has won its last three games in Austin. Before that, UT won 14 of the 15 games it played against OSU in Austin. So while the all–time record clearly shows UT far ahead of OSU in Austin, the recent record demonstrates how times have changed.
  
  I have to take Oklahoma State.
• #25 Missouri at Kentucky, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Missouri has beaten Kentucky every year since joining the SEC in 2012.
  
  I see no reason for that to change. I pick Missouri.

Last week: 19–1

Upset specials last week: 1–0

Season: 60–5

Upset specials overall: 2–1

Woo Pig ... Oh, Well

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When you try to predict the outcomes of games involving Top 25 teams, this is the part of the season when the picking is the easiest. Most of the ranked teams play easy marks — there aren't many head–to–head battles between ranked teams in the first month or so — and you're usually in safe territory if you pick the ranked team to win.

Usually.

Unless you happen to be my alma mater — Arkansas — and you're playing an apparent pushover like Toledo. It should go without saying that unranked Toledo's 16–12 victory over #18 Arkansas in Little Rock was a shock. It would have been a great upset special. I doubt that many people made that prediction, though. I certainly didn't.

I grew up in Arkansas, so I ought to know how this thing works by now. Arkansas frequently has had its best seasons when little was expected — and the Hogs tend to stumble out of the gate when expectations are high. It hasn't always turned out that way, but it has quite often.

The fans expected little when last season began, and, for the first half of the season, the Hogs seemed to be living down to expectations. But then they reeled off some impressive wins in the second half of the season and ended up beating an old Southwest Conference rival, the Texas Longhorns, in a bowl game.

The end of last season naturally gave rise to unrealistic expectations for this season. The Hogs whipped UTEP in the opener, but then they never got going against Toledo. They face Texas Tech this week, then #17 Texas A&M, followed by the Monsters of the SEC West.

My upset special didn't come through. If you want to know which game that was, just look at my column from last week.

Idle: #5 Baylor

Today

• #11 Clemson at Louisville, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams met for the first time last year, and Clemson pulled off a 23–17 win at home. Now, Louisville is looking to return the favor. It should be fun to watch.
  
  I hope it will be close again, and I will take Clemson to win.

Friday

• #9 Florida State at Boston College, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These ACC rivals have played each other every year since 2005. Florida State has won the last five meetings. The series actually dates back to the late '50s. Boston College has been the home team seven times and has beaten Florida State only twice.
  
  I haven't heard much about Boston College. In the absence of any information, I have to pick Florida State.

Saturday

• Northern Illinois at #1 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In their only previous meeting (which was also played in Columbus), Ohio State hammered Northern Illinois, 35–12, in 2006.
  
  Nearly a decade later, Northern Illinois is back — and I expect Ohio State to win again.
• #15 Ole Miss at #2 Alabama, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The first game in this series was played in 1907. Since then, the schools have squared off on the gridiron a total of 58 times.
  
  And Ole Miss has won on Alabama's turf only once in all those years. That was in 1988.
  
  Alabama fans aren't likely to remember that one. They are far more likely to remember last year, when Ole Miss handed then 4–0 Alabama its only loss of the regular season. That broke a 10–year Alabama winning streak against Ole Miss and, temporarily, appeared to derail 'Bama's hopes for playing in the national championship game. Alabama wound up making college football's Final Four after winning the rest of its games but lost to eventual national champion Ohio State on New Year's Day.
  
  Most teams struggle to win at Alabama. For Ole Miss, it's like trying to climb Mount Everest. I pick Alabama.
• SMU at #3 TCU, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports Network: This will be the 93rd meeting of these schools. It's been called the "Battle for the Iron Skillet" since 1946, but that is just about all that folks agree on. TCU fans will tell you one story about how it came to be known as the "Battle for the Iron Skillet," and SMU fans will tell you another.
  
  From what I have seen, SMU just doesn't have the horses to compete for long in this game. I pick TCU.
• Air Force at #4 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Air Force was a lot better than its reputation last year, going 9–3 in the regular season and winning a bowl game. It was the first time Air Force was in double digits in wins since 1998.
  
  Everyone, I guess, knows about Michigan State. Great season. Just happened to lose to the two teams that made it to the national championship game. Double–digit victory years haven't been nearly as uncommon in East Lansing as they have been in Colorado, though. The Spartans have had 10 or more victories in four of the last five seasons, and they're probably expecting another one this year.
  
  I don't expect Air Force to soar very high in this game. I predict a victory for Michigan State.
• Stanford at #6 Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Before Northwestern upset Stanford on the first weekend, I'm sure ABC was licking its chops over this early Pac–12 showdown. It will still be a good game, but it won't have nearly as much riding on it.
  
  This will be the 93rd meeting of these schools since 1918. Southern Cal has dominated on both fields, but, from the perspective of history, if you're Stanford, you want this game to be played in Southern Cal. Stanford has been more successful there. Stanford has won three of the last four times the teams have played on Southern Cal's turf.
  
  Consequently, this will be my upset special — Stanford over Southern Cal.
• South Carolina at #7 Georgia, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Georgia has dominated this series, no matter where the game has been played. In a series that dates to 1903, Georgia has won 71% of the time.
  
  In recent years, though, it's been pretty competitive. Since 2005, each team has won five times, and six of the games have been decided by a touchdown or less. So don't be fooled by the absence of a ranking for South Carolina. That could change quickly if South Carolina comes away with a win.
  
  But I don't think that will happen. I pick Georgia.
• #14 Georgia Tech at #8 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These are pretty old foes, having faced each other nearly three dozen times since the Knute Rockne days — and Notre Dame has won more than 80% of the time.
  
  It really ought to be a good game, and, being the lifelong Southerner that I am, I'd like to see Tech win. But I expect a Notre Dame victory.
• #19 Brigham Young at #10 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: This will be the 11th time these teams have faced each other. UCLA won six of the first seven, but BYU has won two of the last three. But you have to go back to that very first game, back in 1983, to find BYU's only win at UCLA.
  
  I don't think BYU will win this time. I have to take UCLA.
• Georgia State at #12 Oregon, 1 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These schools have never faced each other, but I think I have a pretty good handle on what is likely to happen.
  
  Oregon played in the national championship game last season (and got hammered, too). Last week, the Ducks played at Michigan State. The Spartans might have been in college football's first–ever Final Four if they had beaten Oregon; they got their revenge last week.
  
  Now Oregon comes home to face Georgia State. The Ducks have a lot to prove, mostly to themselves, and I think they'll do it. I'm sure Oregon will win. I can't imagine a different outcome.
• #18 Auburn at #13 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Auburn beat LSU at home last year, but Auburn hasn't won at LSU since 1999. The teams have played 15 times since that game, and Auburn has won six times — all at home.
  
  Home field really is important to SEC schools. Uncharacteristically, LSU lost twice at home last year — to Mississippi State and Alabama. Really, losses at home have been rare for LSU of late. LSU hadn't lost twice at home in a single season since 2009.
  
  It's largely on the strength of that record that I pick LSU to win this game.
• Tulsa at #16 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Tulsa has an uninspiring record of 1–11–1 at Oklahoma. Tulsa's only win there came in 1996.
  
  I doubt that Tulsa will improve that record. I predict an Oklahoma victory.
• Nevada at #17 Texas A&M, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: It's been 65 years since the only other meeting between these schools. That one was played at a neutral site (Sacramento, Calif.) and A&M crushed Nevada 48–18.
  
  I expect Texas A&M to win this time, too.
• Northern Arizona at #20 Arizona, 10 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Arizona has looked good every time I have seen the Wildcats play in the last couple of years.
  
  I pick Arizona to win.
• #21 Utah at Fresno State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: These teams have met twice, and it's been a competitive — but sorta streaky — series that was renewed last year for the first time in the 21st century. Utah has won the last three meetings; Fresno State hasn't won since 1997.
  
  Not so long ago, Fresno State was putting up gaudy winning records with even gaudier wins. But Fresno has fallen on hard times, going 6–8 last year. Utah was 9–4 last year and averaged more than 30 points a game. I'll take Utah.
• Connecticut at #22 Missouri, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: In the last four years, Connecticut has won 10 games (a .313 winning percentage) and only three of those wins came on the road.
  
  It doesn't seem likely that Connecticut will win. It does seem likely that Missouri will win.
• #23 Northwestern at Duke, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: These teams have faced each other 16 times in the past, and each team has won eight times so this game will decide who leads the all–time series — until they meet again. They don't face each other every year. They last met in 2008, and Duke hasn't beaten Northwestern at home since 1989.
  
  I pick Northwestern to win.
• Troy at #24 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I could waste a lot of time on this, but there is really only one thing you need to know.
  
  Wisconsin has only lost at home six times since Nov. 12, 2005. I don't think Troy will be the seventh team to hand Wisconsin a loss at home.
  
  I choose Wisconsin to win.
• Texas–San Antonio at #25 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: These teams faced each other in 2013 and 2014, with OSU winning by wide margins both times.
  
  Now they meet for the third time. Oklahoma State usually wins by 25 points.

Last week: 19–3

Upset specials last week: 0–1

Season: 41–4

Upset specials overall: 1–1

I Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda Picked Northwestern

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I damn near got off to a perfect start last week. I picked Texas A&M to beat Arizona State in an upset special, and that one came through for me. I almost picked a second upset special. I was going to take Northwestern over Stanford, but, at the last minute, I went with Stanford. Then Northwestern won the game.

That was the only blemish on my record — and it really should have been avoided. That isn't sour grapes, either. I'm not the kind of guy who claims to have seriously considered picking an unpopular choice after that choice pulls off the upset if I really didn't. But in this case I did. I really did sit and think about that one longer than most of the others. I really did think Northwestern could do it. I just wasn't sold on Stanford.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. But, in the end, I didn't. That's the kind of game that makes college football the fascinating and unpredictable sport that it is.

Speaking of unpredictable ...

LSU's game with McNeese State was canceled by stormy weather and will not be made up. It is said to be the first cancellation of an LSU game since 1918, when World War I caused the cancellation of LSU's entire schedule. LSU's 2015 season opener will now be this week's conference game at Mississippi State.

Other than those two games, things got off to a great start for me. We'll see if that trend continues this week. The schedule seems to be a little more serious this week. Alabama–Wisconsin was the only matchup between two ranked teams last week. This week we have three.

Today

• Utah State at #24 Utah, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: With only five exceptions, these teams have played each other nearly every year since 1912 — and Utah has won more than 70% of the time.
  
  In fact, Utah State has beaten Utah only once since 1998.
  
  Clearly it has been a lopsided series. But don't let that keep you from watching. Sometimes Utah State has been capable of being competitive with Utah (like last year, for example, when Utah won by only four points).
  
  But I'd still bet on Utah to win the game — that is, if I happened to be a betting man.

Saturday

• Hawaii at #1 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This is going to be the first chapter in the story of this series. And, when the game is over, I think Hawaii is apt to be averse to writing another chapter.
  
  Hawaii has a 14–36 record over the last four seasons. In addition to being the home team, Ohio State is 44–10 in the same time span and won the national championship last year. My choice is easy — Ohio State.
• Middle Tennessee at #2 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The history of this series really isn't very instructive. The schools have met twice before and, as you would probably expect, Alabama won both games. The first meeting wasn't as lopsided as you might think, though. Alabama won by five points. And neither game was played with Nick Saban on the sidelines.
  
  So this will be a first in the Saban era. And I completely expect Alabama to win.
• Stephen F. Austin at #3 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX Sports 1: When I was growing up, I would have regarded this matchup as a tossup. But not today. TCU has proven itself to be a quality football program, and I fully expect a TCU victory.
• Lamar at #4 Baylor, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX Sports Network: There will be times this season, I am sure, when Baylor will struggle. I am not convinced, at this point, that the Bears will remain in the Top 10 all season. But they will remain there for at least another week. I pick Baylor to win the game.
• #7 Oregon at #5 Michigan State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I'm pretty sure the Spartans haven't forgotten their loss to the Ducks on Sept. 6 of last year. Their only other loss was to eventual national champion Ohio State. In fact, the Spartans played the two teams who played for the national title last season — and lost to both. Since those were Michigan State's only losses last year, it stands to reason that Michigan State could have been in the four–team playoff last January if the Spartans had won one of those games.
  
  They will have their chance to avenge last year's loss to Oregon this weekend — and, in the process, possibly take a giant step toward making this year's national playoffs. Avenging the Ohio State loss will have to wait until the weekend before Thanksgiving.
  
  This one ought to be entertaining for awhile; I think there are more questions about Oregon than about the Spartans, though, so I will take Michigan State to win at home.
• Jacksonville State at #6 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I don't see any reason to devote much space to this one. I choose Auburn.
• Idaho at #8 Southern California, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac 12 Network: These teams have played eight times, and the Trojans have won them all.
  
  I've heard nothing to suggest that will change. I pick Southern Cal.
• #9 Notre Dame at Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Lou Holtz was the coach of the Irish when Notre Dame beat Virginia in their only other meeting. Virginia really is more of a basketball school. Notre Dame has, at times, excelled in both football and basketball but seldom in the same year. Currently, they same to be enjoying a revival of the football program.
  
  I have to take Notre Dame.
• #10 Georgia at Vanderbilt, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This will be the 72nd meeting between these schools, and Georgia wins more than 75% of the time.
  
  Usually, there isn't much suspense. Vanderbilt has only beaten Georgia twice since 1995; the rest of the time, Georgia has tended to win by lopsided margins (except for the 2006 and 2007 games, which were decided by a field goal or less — and Vandy won one of those games).
  
  If Vanderbilt wins this game, it will really shake things up in the SEC. That won't happen. I pick Georgia.
• South Florida at #11 Florida State, 10:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: In this series, each team has hosted the other once — and the visiting team has won each time.
  
  Do I think that trend will continue? No. I pick Florida State.
• Appalachian State at #12 Clemson, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3: This will be the first meeting between these schools, but I just can't see Clemson losing this game.
  
  It wouldn't matter where the game was being played. The fact that Clemson is playing at home makes a blowout seem more likely.
• #13 UCLA at UNLV, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: This is the kind of matchup I could easily see happening on a basketball court — but not a football field. And, while these schools may well have faced other before in basketball, this is their first meeting on the gridiron.
  
  In the last five years, UNLV is 15–49. That's a winning percentage of .234. UNLV's winning percentage at home during that time is better but not by a lot — .375. UCLA is 39–27 during the same five–year period. That's a winning percentage of .591. The Bruins have broken even on the road, 15–15. I'll take UCLA.
• #14 LSU at #25 Mississippi State, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have faced off more than 100 times, and the only home field advantage belongs to LSU. Mississippi State is 5–14–1 at home against LSU. The Bulldogs have lost seven straight times to the Tigers in Starkville.
  
  I guess everyone remembers that Mississippi State beat LSU last season and reeled off nine straight wins, even rising to the top of the polls, before losing to Alabama and Ole Miss. I'm sure LSU remembers its loss last September, if not the losses that Mississippi State endured in November. LSU, after all, went 1–2 last November and finished the regular season 8–4, which is acceptable at many schools but not in Baton Rouge.
  
  I pick LSU.
• Tulane at #15 Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: Georgia Tech and Tulane revived a long–dormant rivalry last year as Georgia Tech won 38–21 in the first meeting between the teams in more than 30 years. Georgia Tech won on that occasion, too.
  
  This will be the 50th meeting between these schools, and Tech usually wins — more than 73% of the time.
  
  I have to go with Georgia Tech.
• Ball State at #16 Texas A&M, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This will be the first game between these two schools. I saw the Aggies play Arizona State last week, and I saw a team that has a lot of upside — a lot more than will be needed to handle the likes of Ball State, who is coming off a 5–7 season.
  
  Texas A&M went 6–6 last year and won its fourth straight bowl game. I pick Texas A&M.
• Fresno State at #17 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2/ESPNU: This will be the third time these teams have met since 2010, and Ole Miss won the first two.
  
  In recent years, Fresno has tended to put together seasons with enough wins to qualify for bowls, but those wins have come at the expense of college football's bottom feeders. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has been steadily improving in spite of playing in the best division in the best conference in college football. I have to pick Mississippi.
• Toledo at #18 Arkansas, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: These schools have never faced each other before. If they had met a couple of years ago, I probably would have had to pick Toledo to win.
  
  But the Razorbacks are ascendant now, looking to take the next step, and I really don't expect Arkansas to have any trouble in this game — unless they get caught looking ahead to Texas Tech, Texas A&M or the killer SEC lineup they will have to face in October and November.
• #19 Oklahoma at #23 Tennessee, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams played each other almost precisely one year ago — in Norman, Okla., where the Sooners took apart the Volunteers, 34–10.
  
  Tennessee is a more seasoned squad this time around, and the Vols will have the home field advantage this time. Based on the rankings — and what I know of each squad's personnel — it should be a good game. In my upset special, I pick Tennessee.
• #20 Boise State at Brigham Young, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is another one of those games that seemed like a natural regional rivalry, but they have only played each other five times since (and including) their first–ever meeting in 2004, and Boise State has won all but one — the exception just happens to be the last time they played at Brigham Young two years ago.
  
  Well, recent history suggests Boise State will win this time. After all, Boise has had double–digit wins in eight of the last nine seasons. Double–digit victory seasons used to be almost as routine at BYU, but not lately. Nevertheless, I expect an entertaining game.
• #21 Missouri at Arkansas State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3: These teams have met three times in the past, and Missouri won each meeting. But this will be the first time that Arkansas State has been the host team. Will that make a difference?
  
  I'm inclined to think it won't. Missouri won by at least three touchdowns in each of those previous meetings, and I expect roughly the same this time.
• #22 Arizona at Nevada, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: I would have thought these schools would be natural border rivals, and they would meet every year, even though they don't play in the same conference.
  
  But the truth is that they only met for the first time a few years ago — in a bowl game. Arizona won a wild one, 49–48, then won the rematch at Arizona last year, 35–28. I'd like to think their third meeting will prove to be as competitive as the first two, but I don't expect a different outcome. I have to go with Arizona.

Last week: 22–1

Upset specials last week: 1–0

Season: 22–1

Upset specials overall: 1–0

College Football Returns

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Rejoice,football fans! The 2015 season is upon us.

OK, if you're a fan of pro football, you still have a week to wait before the season begins, but if you like college football, the season actually began last weekend (but come on, that was Montana and North Dakota State).

This weekend, starting tonight, we get our first glimpses of the teams that are thought to be the nation's best.

Today

• #2 TCU at Minnesota, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The first time these schools met was in 1974. TCU's football program was a doormat in those days. Minnesota's wasn't much better, but, on that occasion, the Gophers managed a two–point win at home.
  
  They met for the second time last year, and the Horned Frogs, now nationally recognized, thrashed Minnesota in Fort Worth. That is misleading for a couple of reasons. The loss came early in the season, and Minnesota won five of its next six. Then the Gophers lost to eventual national champion Ohio State by a touchdown — and Ohio State, it is worth remembering, beat some pretty impressive folks by wider margins.
  
  But, of course, no team is identical to the one that preceded it. Other than rankings, there really isn't much to go on in these first few games. I will defer to the polls and pick TCU to win the opener, but don't be surprised if Minnesota puts up a fight.
• Alcorn State at #16 Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports South: I don't think these schools have ever met in football.
  
  And I'm inclined to think that few ACC schools should be ranked in a preseason poll that isn't about basketball — and Georgia Tech isn't one of them.
  
  But it is important to remember that Georgia Tech played in the ACC title game last year (which it lost), then beat Mississippi State (which had been ranked #1 for a time) in the Orange Bowl. I'll take Georgia Tech.
• Texas–San Antonio at #22 Arizona, 9 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: These teams played in 2013 and 2014, and Arizona won both games.
  
  I've neither seen nor heard any reason to think something different will happen tonight so I will pick Arizona to win.

Friday

• #4 Baylor at SMU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These are old foes, having met annually as conference rivals between 1918 and 1995 — with the exceptions of the 1943 and 1944 seasons during World War II and the 1987 and 1988 seasons during the imposition of the NCAA's "death penalty" on the SMU program.
  
  Given their offseason woes, I don't know how long the Bears will remain ranked as high as they are, but this week I'm pretty sure Baylor will triumph.
• #5 Michigan State at Western Michigan, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is the 10th meeting between these schools, and Michigan State is undefeated in a series that dates back to 1918. However, all those other games were played at Michigan State. For the first time ever, the teams will play in Kalamazoo.
  
  Will that make a difference? Maybe, but I doubt it. I will take Michigan State in this one.
• Washington at #23 Boise State, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have met three times before but never on Boise State's turf. Washington won twice at home (including by 38–6 in 2013, the schools' most recent meeting), and Boise State's single win was its two–point victory in the 2012 Las Vegas Bowl.
  
  Most people are familiar with Boise State's recent success; fewer are likely to remember that Washington had a winning season last year. The Huskies struggled in the second half of the season, but they won their first four games. Boise State will be quite a challenge, though, and I will take Boise State at home, but Washington could surprise.

Saturday

• #20 Wisconsin vs. #3 Alabama in Arlington, Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is the only game on opening weekend that matches two ranked teams, and it really ought to be the best game of the weekend. Or, at least, one of them.
  
  Alabama hasn't lost its season opener since dropping its 2001 debut against UCLA. The bad start carried over into the rest of the season, and the Crimson Tide went 7–5 (which was a distinct improvement over Alabama's 3–8 record the year before). It was a lot more recent for Wisconsin — last season, in fact, when the Badgers lost to LSU.
  
  Historically, these teams met once before — when Calvin Coolidge was president. Wisconsin won on that occasion (Nov. 3, 1928), 15–0.
  
  Wisconsin beat Alabama's rival, Auburn, in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day a little over a month after Alabama beat Auburn in their traditional Iron Bowl showdown. Based on the rankings and recent history and after comparing the margins of victory against Auburn, I am inclined to pick Alabama, but it is a neutral site. Anything could happen. I'll stick with Alabama, though.
• Louisville vs. #6 Auburn in Atlanta, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: These teams have met only once before, in 1974, when Auburn won at Louisville, 16–3.
  
  That, of course, is irrelevant, but this is not — Louisville went 9–4 last year (which includes losses to Clemson and Florida State). The year before that, Louisville was 12–1; the year before that, Louisville was 11–2. This is a good football program.
  
  It should be fun. Auburn has an explosive offense, and Louisville, in spite of its past reputation, has a stingy defense. Both teams have holes to fill if they are to meet or exceed their 2014 performances. I will take Auburn.
• Eastern Washington at #7 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: As nearly as I can tell, these teams have never faced each other before.
  
  Oregon played in the national championship game last January and lost to Ohio State. The Ducks also lost their quarterback, but enough talent returns that they're still in the Top 10. I'll go with Oregon to win its fifth season opener in the last six seasons.
• Arkansas State at #8 Southern California, 10 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This is the first meeting between these schools. Southern Cal went through its time in the wilderness, but the Trojans seem to be back on track now.
  
  I'll stick with the home team in this one — Southern California.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #9 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC: These schools have met three times before, and Georgia has won all three.
  
  But they haven't met in 10 years so, for all intents and purposes, this is a first–time encounter. The Bulldogs are one of the favorites in the brutal SEC, and I don't think they will be derailed in this one. I'll take Georgia.
• Texas State at #10 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPNews: These teams have never faced each other before, but, really, does it matter? Florida State won the national title year before last and was in the conversation last year. Texas State doesn't seem likely to have the horses to stay with Florida State until halftime.
  
  I'll take Florida State.
• Texas at #11 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This matchup brings back memories of Cotton Bowls from my youth, back when a national champion could — and did — emerge from the Cotton Bowl.
  
  In fact, Texas has not beaten Notre Dame since the 1970 Cotton Bowl. Had there been ice on the ground for that game, as there was in the Cotton Bowl when the '70s were drawing to a close, that 1970 Cotton Bowl would have been college football's Ice Bowl. It followed a similar script. Like Green Bay in that legendary NFL championship game, the Longhorns trailed 17–14 late in the game and marched down the field for the winning touchdown. It was the pinnacle for Darrell Royal's vaunted Wishbone offense.
  
  Most of those times that the teams have faced each other, though, it hasn't been so dramatic, and the Irish typically win those games. This time, Texas seems to have a pretty good defense even if its offense is a bit of a mess, and that should be the challenge for the Irish. I'm thinking they will rise up to face the challenge. I take Notre Dame.
• Wofford at #12 Clemson, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network: You know, I could waste a lot of space on this, but what's the point? I expect Clemson to win.
• Virginia at #13 UCLA, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Historically, a basketball game between these schools would be more interesting than a football game. However, it was pretty good last year when they met for the first time, and UCLA emerged with an eight–point win.
  
  All of the Bruins' losses last year came at home, but those losses were to teams that ended up with winning records and bowl bids. One played for the national championship. And the Bruins hammered some pretty good times — Southern Cal, Arizona State — but struggled to beat some lesser ones.
  
  I will take UCLA, but be advised that Virginia could make it competitive again.
• McNeese State at #14 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: These schools last faced each other in 2010, when LSU rolled to a 32–10 victory and remained unbeaten — until the next week, when Cam Newton and Auburn beat the Tigers by a touchdown.
  
  LSU should have no problem on this occasion, either.
• #15 Arizona State at Texas A&M, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I've been hearing a lot of things about the Aggies, and I always try to take such talk with at least a grain of salt. In north Texas, one must deal with many A&M graduates, and they aren't usually without a bias of some kind.
  
  But some of the talk I take very seriously.
  
  I've heard talk of some position players who have improved in the off–season, and the Aggies will be unveiling the new Kyle Field. In my upset special, I take Texas A&M.
• Tennessee–Martin at #17 Mississippi, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I have found no indication that these schools have faced each other before, but a history really isn't necessary. For awhile last year, Ole Miss was regarded as one of the best teams in the nation. Tennessee–Martin was not, and there would have to be a dramatic dropoff in talent for Ole Miss to be the underdog in this game.
  
  I pick Mississippi.
• Texas–El Paso at #18 Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Arkansas is my alma mater, so I know what I will be doing on Saturday afternoon.
  
  These schools have played twice, and the Razorbacks won both. Those games were played in Arkansas. The first meeting, in 1989, was in Little Rock; the second meeting, in 2010, was in Fayetteville, like the one on Saturday. The Razorbacks' average margin of victory has been two touchdowns. I think Arkansas will win by at least that many points this time.
• Akron at #19 Oklahoma, 6 p.m. (Central) on Pay–Per–View: These schools have never met before, and, frankly, I have had far more exposure to Akron's basketball program than its football program.
  
  That really isn't surprising. Akron's football team hasn't won more than it lost in a single season in a decade.
  
  Everyone knows OU's reputation in football. In fact, it was that very reputation that had me excited when I began a four–year teaching gig at OU — but then the Sooners proceeded to have probably the four worst consecutive seasons in their history.
  
  They're a lot better now, and my guess is Oklahoma will win without too much trouble.
• #21 Stanford at Northwestern, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools faced each other six times between 1933 and 1994 — but this will be their first encounter since fighting to a 41–41 tie in Chicago almost 21 years ago.
  
  It was a competitive series. Stanford won three times, Northwestern won once, and there were two ties. Northwestern's only win in the series came in Chicago in 1958.
  
  Outside of that Alabama–Wisconsin game, this one looks like it might be the most competitive game.
  
  It is worth remembering, though, that Northwestern has only one win over a Pac–12 team in the last 20 years, and I don't think the Wildcats will win this one. I pick Stanford.
• Southeast Missouri State at #24 Missouri, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I really can't think of a reason why the Tigers would lose this game. I pick Missouri to prevail.
• Bowling Green vs. #25 Tennessee in Nashville, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC: I guess a lot of folks think the Volunteers haven't been worthy of a ranking since Peyton Manning played there. But that, after all, was in the late 1990s. Since Peyton went on to the NFL, Tennessee has finished with 10 or more wins four times and nearly did it a few other times.
  
  Of late, though, the Vols have struggled. They finished 7–6 last year, but, mostly, they've had losing records in the last seven years.
  
  Bowling Green has enjoyed some success during that time, but double–digit victories in a season have been rare.
  
  This is the first time these teams have played, but that massive stadium in Knoxville, along with a rejuvenated Volunteer squad, should be too much for Bowling Green. I pick Tennessee.

Monday

• #1 Ohio State at Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: What a way to kick off a season of Monday night football games. Defending national champion Ohio State travels to take on the only team to beat the Buckeyes last year.
  
  Virginia Tech was full of contradictions last year. In their second game, the Hokies beat the eventual national champions on the road — but then lost to East Carolina and Georgia Tech at home the next two weekends. In 2014, the Hokies were 3–2 on the road (one of those losses was to lowly Wake Forest) but only 3–4 at home.
  
  Given the Hokies' poor home record last year — along with the fact that the Buckeyes haven't lost a regular–season road game since Nov. 26, 2011, I'll pick Ohio State to win.

Will The Drought End Tomorrow?

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I remember the last Triple Crown winner — vaguely. I had just graduated from high school — and broken up with my girlfriend. I was going to enroll in college in the fall. I didn't really pay close attention to horse racing at that time in my life. After all, a Triple Crown? What was so special about that? It was the third one in six years.

In hindsight, the duels between eventual Triple Crown winner Affirmed and his rival Alydar were quite special. In addition to producing the most recent Triple Crown winner (in 1978), they were just darn good horse races.

I must admit that I have been pretty busy this year. I have managed to watch the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as usual, but that has really been the extent of it this year.

Still, I learned a few things. For one, I know — as everyone knows about horses that win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness — that American Pharoah is a speed horse. But that means nothing going into tomorrow's race. The first two races of the Triple Crown emphasize speed; the Belmont, which will be run tomorrow, is the longest race any horse will ever run, and it emphasizes endurance. It is really more of a jockey's race. The jockey must make critical decisions, such as when to make your move and dig deep for any reserves of energy. You don't really see signs of that in the Derby or the Preakness. They're over in the blink of an eye. But the Belmont is a longer race. The jockey's strategic skills combine with the horse's endurance.

I didn't realize until three weeks ago how good American Pharoah could be on a sloppy track. His victory in the Preakness was dominant in soggy conditions, which might tell us a lot if rain was in the forecast. But there's only a slight chance of rain in Elmont, N.Y., tomorrow. Should be a pleasant day, actually, with a northerly breeze and a temperature in the mid–70s.

But the track should be dry, as it was at the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. American Pharoah's victory wasn't as dominant in that one.

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That was, by far, the more dramatic race, with American Pharoah bunched with two other horses as they sprinted to the finish line. They were so tightly bunched, in fact, that I thought I was about to see my first–ever photo finish involving three horses. But American Pharoah pulled away and was the clear winner.

I've become a bit jaded about the Triple Crown in recent years. We've been disappointed a little more than one–third of the time when the Derby/Preakness winner either did not win or did not enter the Belmont; the rest of the time, there was no chance that the winner of the Belmont would win the Triple Crown because two different horses had won the Derby and the Preakness — and that meant low TV ratings and low attendance.

Last year, with California Chrome making what turned out to be an unsuccessful bid for the Triple Crown, more than 100,000 people came to the track, and things got out of hand. This year, organizers say they're putting a cap on attendance at 90,000. We'll see how that works out.

So will American Pharoah end the drought? He's the clear favorite going into the race, but I have been skeptical in recent years. I have written about that before, and I feel much the same way this time. I doubt that it will happen.

I don't have any overwhelming reason for that. I don't have a horse in mind that I think will win the race, although there are a couple of names I have been hearing mentioned frequently — Keen Ice and Frosted. Keep an eye on those horses. Even though the 1½–mile Belmont emphasizes endurance, I think it is possible that either of those horses could make a move from the start that forces American Pharoah into a speed race. Unless he really turns out to be one of those rare perfect blends of speed and endurance, he will run out of gas before he reaches the finish line.

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Here's a look at the last time a horse won the Triple Crown — Affirmed's triumph in the Belmont Stakes in June of 1978.

Telling It Like It Is

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I really admire Dale Hansen, weeknight sports anchor and sports director at WFAA — the ABC affiliate here in Dallas.

He has the courage to tell it like it is, which shouldn't come as a surprise, really. Nearly 30 years ago, he exposed NCAA violations at Southern Methodist University that ultimately led to the imposition of the NCAA's "death penalty" on SMU's football program. His work earned some awards for distinguished journalism — and several death threats, as I recall.

Football is virtually a religion in Texas. It's that way across the South, but it seems especially true of Texas.

And I love to watch football as much as anyone. I grew up in Arkansas, and we love our Razorbacks. It's the only thing that nearly everyone in Arkansas agrees on.

We love to like win, like just about everyone, I guess, but I honestly do believe that we also have standards in Arkansas. I think that was proven when the head coach was found to be carrying on an intimate relationship with a young female assistant. He is now coaching elsewhere, and the football program was subjected to some excruciating growing pains after he left, but the ship seems to be going in the right direction now — and it appears to be doing so with a group of young men who seem to know the meaning of the word honor.

That is part of what makes it so difficult to live here in the Metroplex and see how Jerry Jones has mismanaged the Cowboys for more than a quarter of a century now. I've lived here for all but four of those years — I even covered Jimmy Johnson's first press conference as Jones' new head coach hire — but I might as well have grown up here, given that most of the people in central Arkansas in those days were Cowboys fans.

Then, as now, there was no professional football team in Arkansas — and only a few professional teams within driving distance. The Cowboys were televised there every week. It was only natural, I suppose, for football fans there to gravitate to the Cowboys. Those who are still living — and many of their children and grandchildren — have carried on the tradition.

The Cowboys of those days played aggressive football — for which they were either admired or loathed, but, either way, no one could deny they carried themselves with dignity and honor. Tom Landry and Tex Schramm wouldn't have it any other way. Their players played hard on the field, and the Cowboys had something like 20 consecutive winning seasons, which I am sure put them under a great deal of pressure — including all the talk locally that they couldn't win "the big one" — but they didn't beat their wives, their girlfriends or their children when they were off the field.

Recently, though, Jones signed defensive lineman Greg Hardy. In case you aren't familiar with Hardy's background, you can get a pretty good idea of his personal history by reading this by Judy Battista of NFL.com.

You could get a really good idea of his background by listening to Hansen for three minutes earlier this week.

And, while it is tempting to summarize for you what Hansen said, it is far more effective if you see it and hear it for yourself.

So I urge you to watch the attached video.

Dale, I agree with you 100%