The Fight of the Century, Part II

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Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier fought three times.

The first was known as the "Fight of the Century." Frazier was the defending world champion, and he defeated Ali on that occasion. It was Frazier's only victory in three bruising confrontations.

The third fight, the "Thrilla in Manila," was fought a year and a half after the second fight, which took place in New York's Madison Square Garden 40 years ago tonight.

Neither man was champion on this night 40 years ago. Frazier had lost his title a year earlier to George Foreman, and the winner of the second fight figured to get a shot at Foreman's crown.

In boxing lore, the second fight between the two men is seen as the least significant of the three, but I disagree with that assessment. It was scheduled for 12 rounds, and it went the distance — no quick decision. Ali was the winner by unanimous decision, but that does not mean it was a lopsided fight.

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It is an exercise in futility to rank the Ali–Frazier fights. It was a great rivalry, and each fight had its unique traits.

I always believed Ali–Frazier II was not the least significant of the three fights. True, no title was on the line, but the winner was expected to get a shot at the heavyweight championship — and, in fact, it did lead to a title shot for Ali later that year.

What's more, Ali cashed in on his opportunity, defeating Foreman in the famed "Rumble in the Jungle" in October.

But that was still nine months in the future. On this night in 1974, Ali got off to the kind of start that was typical for him — scoring enough points to be the unanimous winner of the first two rounds. That came as no real surprise to veteran fight watchers. Frazier always was a slow starter.

Frazier — who was thought to be seriously hurt near the end of the second round — began to score some points with the judges, winning the third round and doing well enough in the fourth to get two of the judges to score the round a draw.

The fifth and sixth rounds went to Ali, then the seventh and eighth went to Frazier. Ali was the unanimous winner of the ninth and 11th rounds while Frazier won split decisions in the 10th and 12th rounds.

It was a unanimous decision — all three judges had Ali winning — but it was far from unanimous as far as all observers were concerned. Sports writer Red Smith of the New York Times, for example, thought Frazier had won a narrow victory.

The rivalry had what any good rivalry should have — a healthy dose of good old–fashioned hate. At least, it appeared to have plenty of hate coming from the Frazier corner. Prior to their rematch, the men reviewed the tape of the first fight at the ABC studio, during which Ali called Frazier "ignorant," and a fight broke out in the studio.

That might have been a show. Ali was known to be a showman, and Frazier might have been persuaded to play along.

But, if it was a show, it was mighty convincing.

A Drive for the Ages

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Super Bowl XXIII is remembered for one thing — the magnificent game–winning touchdown drive engineered by quarterback Joe Montana in the closing minutes — even though it was noteworthy for other things, too.

San Francisco trailed Cincinnati by a field goal with a little more than three minutes to play. The 49ers had the ball at their own 8–yard line; Montana led the offense down the field and threw the winning touchdown pass to John Taylor with 34 seconds to play.

They called him "Joe Cool" during his playing career, and that really described his demeanor as he directed the 49ers on that game–winning drive.

Repeatedly that day, the Bengals' defenders made the plays they needed to make, but the 49ers won, anyway, 20–16, possibly securing Montana's induction into pro football's Hall of Fame. He entered the game already having won two Super Bowls. Four quarterbacks with at least two Super Bowl victories — Bart Starr, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach — had been chosen for the Hall of Fame, and other two–time winners would follow.

Nearly every quarterback who has started for at least two Super Bowl winners has wound up in the Hall of Fame (although Jim Plunkett has never been selected for induction in spite of being a two–time winner). A pretty convincing case can be made that Montana would be in the Hall of Fame, regardless of what happened 25 years ago today.

There was every reason to believe that Montana, who had been MVP in his first two Super Bowls along with being a five–time Pro Bowler, would be inducted, too. And he was, in his first year of eligibility. The stirring game–winning drive simply added to his remarkable resume.

Super Bowl XXIII had a little something for everyone. For Montana, it was a third Super Bowl victory as starting quarterback — and the only one of the four Super Bowls in which he played that he was not named the MVP. For Taylor, it was a game–winning reception.

And for future Hall of Famer Jerry Rice, it was the Most Valuable Player award. He caught 11 passes for a record 215 yards against the Bengals.

The game itself was a rematch of Super Bowl XVI, the third such rematch in Super Bowl history. The score was 3–3 at halftime, the first time a Super Bowl was tied at intermission.

San Francisco coach Bill Walsh retired after the game. So far, he is the only man to end his pro football coaching career with a Super Bowl victory.

But "The Drive" is what fans remember 25 years later.

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On that final drive, Montana completed eight of nine pass attempts. He was calm and cool as he completed three to Rice for 51 yards, but he covered the last 10 on a pass to Taylor.

That last play was probably the most astonishing play of the drive. As I say, Rice caught 11 passes in that game, three of them on the final drive (a fourth pass was thrown his way on that drive as well). Mere words aren't sufficient to describe the brilliance of his performance. He was clearly the game's most valuable player.

With the ball resting on the Cincinnati 10, everyone in the stadium probably expected Montana to throw to Rice. I was watching the game on TV with my parents, and I know the three of us expected Montana to look for Rice.

But, instead, he threw to Taylor for only the fourth time in the game. And Taylor, who nearly fumbled away a punt earlier in the quarter, made his only reception of the day.

It was a brilliant piece of strategy from the mind of a truly brilliant strategist, Bill Walsh, and it was executed flawlessly by his field general, Joe Montana.

Rice was the logical target. Taylor had been a non–factor all day, but "Joe Cool," calmly and confidently, threw the ball to Taylor and joined the exclusive club of football players who have won more than two Super Bowls.

The Montana legend was really born 25 years ago tonight. He was already regarded as one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks; "The Drive" made it official.

Black Sunday

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You'd think that a city the size of Los Angeles would have won several Super Bowls over the years.

But L.A., which has had as many as two NFL franchises at one time but now has none, has only won a single Super Bowl — 30 years ago tonight, when the Raiders, who had only made Los Angeles their home for a couple of seasons, defeated the defending Super Bowl champion Washington Redskins, 38–9.

It was the first time the Super Bowl had been played in Tampa. Nine future Hall of Famers participated in it. Bronko Nagurski, a charter member of the Hall of Fame, tossed the coin before the start of the game. It drew the fourth–highest Super Bowl TV viewership to that time.

But it is remembered for Marcus Allen's record–setting 74–yard touchdown run.

Frankly, it is odd that the game should be remembered for that. Granted, it was an electrifying play, but a good case can be made that the Redskins were already a beaten bunch by that time. When it happened, I thought the Redskins looked like they were shell–shocked and going through the motions.

It was in the closing seconds of the third quarter. The black–clad Raiders held a 28–9 lead. Allen had already scored once that quarter. His second score took whatever wind was left completely out of the Redskins' sails.

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It really seemed, at first, as if the play would be nothing spectacular. Allen started to run to the left, ran into a wall of Redskins defenders, reversed field and ran back to the right, found a hole and slipped neatly through the Washington defense, and he was off.

The Raiders' triumph is their last — so far — in Super Bowl competition. They returned to the Super Bowl nearly 20 years later and lost.

Few who witnessed the Raiders' success in the 1970s and '80s would have guessed 30 years ago tonight that they would not be back as Super Bowl champions.

A Truly 'Super' Super Bowl

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In its first 12 years of existence, the Super Bowl was a blowout more often than not.

A few games were relatively close (i.e., victory margins in single digits). The New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts by nine points in Super Bowl III; the Colts turned back the Dallas Cowboys with a last–second field goal in Super Bowl V; the unbeaten Miami Dolphins topped the Washington Redskins by a touchdown in Super Bowl VII; and the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Cowboys by four points in Super Bowl X.

But those were the exceptions.

That made what happened 35 years ago today in Miami so remarkable.

There was no shortage of compelling storylines. The game was the first–ever Super Bowl rematch. The winner would be the first franchise to win three Super Bowls. The Cowboys were the defending Super Bowl champions, looking to repeat.

The Steelers were favored by 3½ points. The oddsmakers clearly expected a close game.

And the oddsmakers were right. The Steelers prevailed, 35–31, inspiring more than one sportswriter to observe that Super Bowl XIII lived up to the hype. It really was super.

Pittsburgh's Terry Bradshaw threw four TD passes and was the game's MVP. Roger Staubach had three TD passes, but he would have had four if Jackie Smith hadn't dropped a sure touchdown in the end zone in the third quarter. Staubach wouldn't let Smith take all the blame. "The play was wide open, so I tried to take a little off the ball and I think I threw it too low," he said after the game.

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Perhaps the pass was a little low, but Smith knew that wasn't the whole story. "I just was wide open and I missed it," he said.

That dropped pass forced Dallas to settle for a field goal instead of scoring a game–tying touchdown, and the Cowboys never led again. They only led once all afternoon as it was — and briefly at that — after Mike Hegman stripped the ball from Bradshaw and rambled 37 yards to give Dallas a 14–7 advantage early in the second quarter.

The Steelers tied it up about a minute and a half later when Bradshaw hit John Stallworth for a 75–yard touchdown strike. They seized the lead in the closing seconds of the half when Bradshaw hit Rocky Bleier for a touchdown, capitalizing on Staubach's only interception of the day.

Dallas' Tony Dorsett led all rushers with 96 yards, but Pittsburgh's Franco Harris had the game's only TD run.

The victory — and the one the following year — sealed the Steelers' place as the team of the decade. They, along with Miami and Dallas, had two Super Bowl championships to their credit when the game began. They finished the decade with four Super Bowl titles in six years.

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When did the Steelers wrap it up? I think an argument can be made that, when Smith dropped the pass and the Cowboys had to take a field goal instead of a touchdown, that was when the Steelers began to believe they would win, and the Cowboys began to believe they would lose.

Then Pittsburgh broke it open with two touchdowns in a 19–second span midway through the fourth quarter. Harris scored his touchdown run, then Pittsburgh recovered a fumbled kickoff and built the lead to 35–17 with 6:57 to play on Bradshaw's 18–yard strike to Lynn Swann.

Dallas managed two late touchdowns, but the deficit was simply too great to overcome.

Defending Perfection

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Over the years, people have come to speak of the Miami Dolphins' perfect 1972 season in hushed tones.

I don't quibble with that. The 17–0 season was a remarkable achievement, accomplished, to a great extent, with a backup quarterback (starter Bob Griese went out with an ankle injury midway through the season) and a "no–name defense" that put the clamps on the best quarterbacks of the day — Len Dawson, Fran Tarkenton, Joe Namath, Johnny Unitas — and then beat an emerging Hall of Famer, Terry Bradshaw, in the AFC championship game.

But I have long believed that what the Dolphins did 40 years ago, in their followup season of 1973, was even more impressive. (Incidentally, until next month's Super Bowl in New Jersey, Super Bowl VIII stands as the third–coldest Super Bowl ever played.)

Heading into the 1973 season, the Dolphins had an enormous bull's eye on their chests. In the eyes of all their rivals, they were the 17–0 Dolphins of the previous year who hadn't lost in a game that counted since Super Bowl VI, when Roger Staubach and the Dallas Cowboys beat them, 24–3.

Every team that faced the Dolphins in 1973 was hoping to be the one to knock them from their lofty perch.

The '73 Dolphins managed to stay up there in the season opener, beating a declining San Francisco team, but they lost to Oakland in the second week. They only lost once more that year, in a meaningless game with Baltimore in the next–to–last week of the regular season, then hammered Cincinnati in the first round of the playoffs and avenged their second–week loss to Oakland in the AFC championship game.

Then, in Super Bowl VIII 40 years ago today, the Dolphins pounded the Minnesota Vikings to become the second team to win back–to–back Super Bowls.

(That's still a relatively rare achievement, by the way. Pro football will play its 48th Super Bowl next month, and teams have won back–to–back Super Bowls only eight times.)

In spite of the constant pressure they faced all season, even after losing that game to Oakland, the Dolphins followed their 17–0 campaign with a 15–2 season. That's 32 wins in 34 games over a two–year period. That's a two–year record that few Super Bowl champions have come close to matching.

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For a long time, I thought I was the only one (or at least one of the few) who recognized the accomplishment of the '73 Dolphins.

I remember a conversation I had with my friend Steve. He was a great admirer of the '72 Dolphins, and we often discussed that team. Once, I mentioned to him that I thought the '73 Dolphins were better, and his jaw just about hit the ground. After I explained my reasoning to him, he seemed to agree with me — or, at least, he agreed that I had a convincing case.

Anyway, recently, I read a retrospective article in the New York Daily News by Joe Belock that said what I have been thinking all these years: "Is it possible," Belock asked in his opening paragraph, "for a Super Bowl championship team to be underrated? Underappreciated?"

It's hard to imagine a Super Bowl champion being underrated, isn't it? Yet, that is precisely what the '73 Dolphins were — and still are, to an extent, as Belock's article suggests.

As Belock observes, they were better than the bunch that went unbeaten. "The schedule was tougher," he writes, yet the defense yielded fewer points.

Many coaches have won Super Bowls, but only a few have won two or more — and fewer still have won them back to back. It is so difficult — more difficult now, it seems, than it used to be — to repeat as champions in any sport. (We don't know yet who will play in this year's Super Bowl, but we do know that last year's winner, the Baltimore Ravens, will not be in it.)

I believe the Super Bowl that was won by Miami 40 years ago today was what secured Don Shula's spot in football history.

What happened in the following years added to his reputation, of course — most career wins (347), most Super Bowl teams (six) — but he was already regarded as a coaching legend by sundown 40 years ago.

Shula never won another Super Bowl. His '73 Dolphins were the last to achieve that for him.

Namath's Guarantee

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On this day 45 years ago, Broadway Joe Namath made good on his famous guarantee, and Namath's underdog New York Jets became the first members of the old AFL to win the Super Bowl, defeating the Baltimore Colts, 16–7.

It was also the first time that the name Super Bowl was used officially.

Before the game, there was a widely held belief that the AFL was inferior to the NFL in every possible way. Baltimore was favored by 18 points — and that was surely seen by many as too few. The Colts, they would have told you, were certain to beat the Jets by more than that. They had outscored their opponents by more than 18 points in more than half of their regular–season games that year (and came within a point of an 18–point victory margin in three other games), and they had won the NFL championship two weeks earlier by nearly five touchdowns.

And, with a defense that was coached by future Hall of Famer Chuck Noll and featured players like Bubba Smith, Billy Ray Smith and Mike Curtis, it was easy to imagine the upstart Jets being manhandled as the Chiefs and Raiders had been in the previous two Super Bowls.

The AFL began to gain some grudging acceptance when the Jets managed to sign Namath, who played his college ball at Alabama for Bear Bryant. In fact, it was due in large part to Namath's decision that the NFL agreed to merge with the AFL a few years later. The NFL feared bidding wars for the top collegiate talent and felt that bringing the AFL into the fold and subjecting its teams to the annual draft would prevent such wars from happening.

The merging of the two leagues didn't happen until 1970, more than a year after Namath's Jets beat the Colts in what has come to be regarded as one of sports' greatest upsets.

Namath's guarantee was the result, perhaps inevitably, of accumulated frustration from suggestions that the AFL was inferior. Some analysts had suggested that, if they had played in the NFL, the Jets would not have qualified for the playoffs, let alone made it to the Super Bowl.

Three days before the game, Namath appeared at the Miami Touchdown Club. A belligerent Colts fan heckled Namath and taunted him with claims that the Jets would lose. Exasperated (and intoxicated), Namath said, "We're gonna win the game. I guarantee it."

Without question, there have been times — in the histories of all sports — when players for one team believed they didn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning a certain game. Sometimes it happens in championship games.

On this day 45 years ago, there might even have been a few Jets players who believed they would lose to the mighty Colts. But Joe Namath was not one of them.

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The year before he led the Jets to the Super Bowl, Namath was the first pro quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards, and he is still the only one to accomplish the feat in a 14–game regular season.

Ironically, Namath was the MVP of Super Bowl III in spite of the fact that he didn't throw a touchdown pass in the game. In fact, he didn't attempt a single pass in the final quarter.

The Hole-in-the-Head Gang

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"Why me? Why me?"

Nancy Kerrigan
Jan. 6, 1994

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On this day 20 years ago, ice skater Nancy Kerrigan was clubbed on her right knee on the eve of the 1994 U.S. Figure Skating Championships in Detroit.

It was part of a plot to keep Kerrigan from competing in the 1994 Winter Olympics, ostensibly opening the door for rival Tonya Harding to win the gold medal.

The hit man, Shane Stant, had been instructed to break Kerrigan's leg so she could not compete. Kerrigan's leg was only bruised, though. While she had to withdraw from the national championship competition, both Kerrigan and Harding (the winner of the national championship in Kerrigan's absence) were chosen to compete in the Olympics in February 1994.

The motive for the clubbing wasn't immediately clear, though. I mean, there was no one calling media outlets to claim responsibility for it or anything like that.

The speculative soap opera that followed quickly became a media sensation and catapulted figure skating into an entirely new stratosphere.

As Barry Wilner of the Associated Press writes, "Often considered elitist because of its expense, and only something to watch whenever the Winter Olympics rolled around, skating entered an entirely different realm because of Tonya and Nancy. That surge in popularity lasted for the rest of the 1990s."

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The surge continued through the 1994 Winter Olympics, held that year in tiny Lillehammer, Norway. It must have been the biggest media circus ever to hit that community. I wasn't there so I don't know, but, from the perspective of one who watched it play out on television, the Tonya and Nancy show truly was a media circus in every sense of the phrase.

It struck me at the time — and it still does — that the Kerrigan episode was evidence of just how provincial Americans were in 1994 (and still are, for that matter). The assumption was that the top American female skater would win the gold medal — ultimately, Oksana Baiul of the Ukraine took home the gold in 1994 — but why would Americans get that idea? It ignored all the talent in the rest of the world, not to mention the history of the sport.

East German Katarina Witt dominated Olympic women's figure skating in the 1980s. Ever since women's figure skating was introduced as an Olympic event, women from other countries had ruled the sport.

Peggy Fleming was the breakthrough figure skater for the U.S. in 1968, and Dorothy Hamill won the gold in 1976, but America's top finisher in 1980 was silver medalist Linda Fratianne. Witt beat Americans Rosalynn Sumners in 1984 and Debi Thomas in 1988.

Perhaps it was Kristi Yamaguchi's triumph over favored Japanese skater Midori Ito in 1992 that ignited the fire that led, possibly inevitably, to the assault on Kerrigan 20 years ago today.

The lust for lucrative commercial deals inspired Harding's husband, Jeff Gillooly, and some other ne'er–do–wells to hatch the plot to get Kerrigan out of the way.

I guess it never occurred to the Hole–in–the–Head Gang that someone from another country — Baiul, for example — might take the gold.

I also think the Nancy–Tonya spectacle of '94 serves as something of a 21st–century cautionary tale.

Because, in spite of what Gilloly and his accomplices thought, Olympic gold isn't really worth much more than that — it brings a little fame that really doesn't last as long as they probably thought it did and a little temporary income that is gone before you know it. In 1994, mostly what Olympic gold (or the lust for it) brought to Tonya Harding was notoriety.

For her part, Kerrigan retired from amateur competition after the Olympics. She performed in some ice shows and participated in other skating–related activities, but largely her life seems to have been dedicated to her husband, whom she married the year after the Olympics, and their children.

The Punch Heard 'Round the Football World

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"Evidently nobody in authority realized that a full–grown man who attached such importance to a game was, at best, immature, not to say a case of arrested development. The saddest part of the whole affair is that nobody at Ohio State saw the denouement approaching and protected Hayes from himself."

Red Smith (1905–1982)

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Red Smith is one of my favorite journalists. I guess it is appropriate to call him a sports journalist, and he probably accepted that during his lifetime, but he wrote that he always "wanted to be a newspaperman and came to realize I didn't really care which side of the newspaper I worked on."

Frankly, I felt the same way. Smith had a philosophy about sports journalism that I tried to keep in mind when I worked on the sports side of newspapers.

"[P]eople go to spectator sports to have fun and then they grab the paper to read about it and have fun all over again," he wrote. "I've always tried to remember ... that sports isn't Armageddon. These are just little games that little boys can play, and it really isn't important to the future of civilization whether the Athletics or the Browns win."

Thirty–five years ago, Woody Hayes would have been smart to heed those words, especially the part about how sports isn't Armageddon. If he had, Hayes' 28–year coaching career at Ohio State might not have come to an end when it did.

Hayes had a reputation for being a disciplinarian, a man who would take young men and mold them into leaders. He was a military historian who often applied principles from military history to his coaching.

It was known that Hayes had a temper that he couldn't always control. He once tried to punch a sportswriter following a loss, but he missed and hit the brother of the sports editor of another paper instead. A few years later, he almost got into a fight with the athletic director of another school during a meeting of Big Ten Conference athletic directors and coaches.

Late in his career, he seemed to have a particular animosity for photographers. He shoved a camera in the face of a photographer before a Rose Bowl game, leading to a three–game suspension, and about a year before the 1978 Gator Bowl, he took a swing at a TV cameraman late in a loss to Michigan.

In spite of his history, no one suspected, when Dec. 29, 1978 dawned, that the Gator Bowl between #20 Ohio State and #7 Clemson in Jacksonville, Fla., that night would be Hayes' last game as a college football coach.

But when Clemson's Charlie Bauman intercepted a pass late in the game to seal a 17–15 victory, Hayes punched him in front of God and the TV cameras — and, at that moment, I knew Hayes was finished.

I'll never forget that night. I was in my grandmother's home. My family had been visiting her for Christmas, but we were frantically preparing to leave Dallas ahead of an ice storm that was expected within a few days. That night, for whatever reason, my father and I decided to stop packing and watch the football game. We both watched in utter disbelief as Hayes struck the opposing player.

An era was ending in college football. It had been kind of a comforting, reassuring era when the giants from the ranks of college coaches were always there on the sidelines of the truly big games. One by one, though, they were stepping aside, and the next generation was taking over.

It was an inevitable transition. It happens in all walks of life with the passage of time, but we all know that people still get sentimental about endings. It is true of coaches, too; people are always wistful when longtime coaches leave. The coaches themselves are often wistful. It is a bittersweet time.

In many ways, the sports world is the same as it was when Hayes walked the sideline. But in other ways it has changed dramatically. One has to wonder, in hindsight, if Hayes could have remained the Ohio State football coach for much longer.

In the years after the legends of the 20th century roamed the sidelines, that drill sergeant mentality gradually fell out of favor with college athletic directors. There may be a few of them out there, but, for the most part, they have vanished.

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"... Charlie Bauman intercepted a pass and went out of bounds right where the Ohio State coach stood. That architect of young manhood laid hold of Bauman and fetched him a roundhouse right to the chops. Fists flailing, he tried to charge onto the field, but his own scholar athletes, already bruised and bleeding from their pursuit of culture, overpowered him."

Red Smith

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Hayes, it was said more and more frequently, physically assaulted his players during practice, and that did bother some people at the time, but most folks were willing to ignore it as long as he didn't do that kind of thing in public. After all, this was football, a man's game, and men are tough.

Today, a college coach who struck an athlete, whether in view of only his peers or a national TV audience, would most likely get the boot regardless of who he was. Politics — and political correctness — won't tolerate that sort of thing.

Three decades ago, schools were more protective of their star coaches, firing them only when they had no choice. And, on this day in 1978, Ohio State was left with no choice.

There really wasn't anything special about the 1978 Gator Bowl. It was the first time — and, until Clemson and Ohio State meet in Friday night's Orange Bowl, the only time — the schools faced off in football.

But the game set no records for scoring or anything else, as I recall. It is remembered only for Hayes' punch.

The Bowl Season Begins Today

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Today is the first day of the college football bowl season, and I have analyzed each bowl game involving a Top 25 team, right up to the national championship showdown between Florida State and Auburn on Jan. 6.

There are four games on the schedule today — but only one involving a Top 25 team.

As Erick Smith reports in USA Today, however, there is no shortage of intriguing storylines to follow over the next couple of weeks — even if the game in question doesn't have a Top 25 team playing in it.

So let the games begin.
Today

• Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl: #21 Fresno State vs. Southern Cal, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: We're only a few days from Christmas. This is the last shopping weekend before the big day. A lot of people wonder why they should watch Fresno State play football.
  
  The most obvious is that Fresno State as a team came within a single victory of breaking into a BCS bowl game in the last year of the BCS' existence. The Bulldogs have the third–best offense in the nation.
  
  A lot of teams in the NFL are in the market for a good quarterback, and Fresno's Derek Carr, who will be playing in his final collegiate game today, is worth watching. He completed 70% of his passes during the regular season, and he attempted 605 passes. That is an average of more than 50 passes a game. His performance against the Trojans is sure to be a factor in draft decisions.
  
  These schools have actually faced each other twice before, and it's been a split decision.
  
  In 1992, they met in the Freedom Bowl in Anaheim, and Fresno State prevailed, 24–7. They last met in 2005, and Southern Cal was the winner on that occasion, 50–42.
  
  I think Fresno State will win this time.

Thursday

• S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Utah State vs. #24 Northern Illinois, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As usual, the Heisman attention went to the winner, Florida State's Jameis Winston, and the runnerup, Alabama's A.J. McCarron. I suppose that is appropriate.
  
  Football fans can catch their last glimpses of both as collegiate players early in the new year.
  
  But the third–place finisher, Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch, will be finishing his collegiate career the day after Christmas. Lynch's numbers weren't eye–popping, but, like other quarterbacks who have gone on to success in the NFL, he did the things he needed to do to win — except in the Mid–American Conference championship game, which Northern Illinois lost to Bowling Green (I would argue, though, that the loss to Bowling Green was a team effort).
  
  These schools have only met once, in 1995, and Utah State won, 42–7. I expect Northern Illinois to return the favor.

Saturday, Dec. 28

• New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. #25 Notre Dame, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: A year ago, the Irish were preparing to meet Alabama for the national championship. Now, after an 8–4 campaign, the 25th–ranked Irish will face Rutgers, then (presumably) watch the Florida State–Auburn game along with the rest of the nation a week later.
  
  After playing for a national title, it is hard to imagine what would motivate Notre Dame in this game. Perhaps the desire to get a momentum jump on the 2014 season is what will push Notre Dame in this game.
  
  These schools have faced off four times before, and Notre Dame has won them all, three by shutout.
  
  This time they are returning to the original scene of the crime — kinda. On Nov. 8, 1921, Notre Dame beat Rutgers in New York, N.Y., 48–0. Ninety–two years later, the Irish will face the Scarlet Knights in New York's Yankee Stadium.
  
  I think Notre Dame will win — and it won't be particularly close.
• Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami (Fla.) vs. #18 Louisville, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have met on the gridiron 10 times, but this will be the first time in a postseason setting.
  
  Miami won eight of those previous encounters, Louisville won one and there was a tie back in 1950.
  
  But get this: Louisville's only victory in the series occurred the last time the teams faced each other — in 2006. It has been nearly 10 years since Miami beat Louisville.
  
  Louisville's offensive leader is quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the fifth–best quarterback overall and the only one with a higher completion percentage than Fresno's Carr (by .08 of a percentage point) although he attempted more than 200 fewer passes than Carr did.
  
  It is often forgotten that Bridgewater, a junior, originally committed to Miami, then signed with Louisville. Do you suppose there might be a revenge factor in this game? I don't know, but Bridgewater should be careful. Miami's defense isn't as good as it used to be, but its pass defense was much better than its run defense this season.
  
  Of course, that kind of recruiting reversal works both ways, as Jeff Greer of the Louisville Courier–Journal observes. A safety who had committed to Louisville recently decided to sign with Miami instead.
  
  I pick Louisville to win a close one.

Monday, Dec. 30

• Valero Alamo Bowl: #10 Oregon vs. Texas, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be Texas coach Mack Brown's last game at the helm. He has announced his resignation at the conclusion of the Alamo Bowl.
  
  One of the many ironies of Brown's tenure that he is the only Texas football coach ever to lose to Oregon. He did so in the 2000 Holiday Bowl. Will he make up for it in his final appearance on the UT sideline?
  
  The schools met four times prior to that — in 1941, 1947, 1962 and 1971 — and Texas won them all.
  
  If Texas is going to beat Oregon, the defense, which has been frequently criticized this season, will have to play probably its best game of the year. Oregon's offense is ranked second in the nation, thanks to the presence of the sixth–best quarterback (Marcus Mariota) who is draft–eligible as a third–year sophomore, but he has already announced he will come back for his junior year. He completed 63% of his attempts and threw 30 TD passes while allowing only four interceptions.
  
  That's going to be quite a challenge for a Texas defense that is ranked 63rd in the nation overall. The Longhorns are better against the pass (#30) with 10 interceptions. Texas will have to put the brakes on Oregon's potent offense if Brown is going to end his 16–year tenure with a win.
  
  I don't think he will, though. He might — if Oregon is preoccupied by thoughts of the losses to Stanford and Arizona State that kept them out of the Pac–12 championship game and a BCS bowl.
  
  Not likely. I expect Oregon to win.
• National University Holiday Bowl: #16 Arizona State vs. Texas Tech, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have only met once — in 1999 — and ASU was the winner, 31–13.
  
  By the time they kick off for the second time, the Texas–Oregon game will be over, and speculation about Mack Brown's successor will be thrown into high gear. While the coaches in the Holiday Bowl, Arizona State's Todd Graham and Texas Tech's Kliff Kingsbury, are probably dark horses on anyone's list for the UT job, they are among the hottest coaches in college football, and a solid performance by one in this game, coming, as it would, on the heels of Brown's finale, could only enhance his case.
  
  It would be an upset if Texas Tech, which won its first seven this season but then lost its last five, managed to win this game, but perhaps the desire not to enter 2014 with a six–game losing streak will serve to motivate the Red Raiders.
  
  Doubtful. I expect Arizona State to win by a couple of touchdowns.

Tuesday, Dec. 31

• Hyundai Sun Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. #17 UCLA, 1 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is the first time these two storied programs have faced each other.
  
  And, in the absence of any sort of history between the two schools, pregame attention has focused on other things — like the coaching vacancy at Texas. UCLA coach Jim Mora apparently sought to dispel any such speculation about him, saying the only part of Texas he intends to visit is the site of the Sun Bowl, El Paso, which is roughly 525 miles from Austin.
  
  Virginia Tech retains its gridiron reputation, but the fact is that the program isn't what it was when Michael Vick was the quarterback. Tech's offense was lucky to be in the Top 100 when this season was over (UCLA finished 37th behind QB Brett Hundley). Tech's defense is pretty good, though — the unit is ranked fourth in the nation — and UCLA's 56th–ranked defense is arguably its weakness, yielding at least 23 points (usually more than that) to seven of its 12 opponents in 2013.
  
  With a win, though, UCLA can cap a 10–win season for the first time since 2005. My guess is that UCLA will win — by a touchdown.
• Chick–fil–A Bowl: #22 Duke vs. #20 Texas A&M, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is a match of arguably the two Cinderella stories of the last two seasons.
  
  Everyone knows the story of the Aggies, of course. Redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy in 2012 and led Texas A&M to victory over Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. It was the Aggies' first 11–win season since 1998.
  
  Duke amazed everyone this year. Sports fans are accustomed to seeing Duke's basketball team playing for national honors, but the football team is a stranger to these parts. The Blue Devils were bowl eligible last year, but they lost by a couple of touchdowns and reverted to the familiar sub–.500 territory with a 6–7 record.
  
  Prior to that, Duke hadn't been to a bowl in 20 years, and the Blue Devils haven't won one since the Jan. 2, 1960 Cotton Bowl.
  
  It will be hard for Duke to end its winless skid in the postseason. The Aggies' fourth–ranked offense is likely to have a lot of fun with Duke's 72nd–ranked defense.
  
  On the other hand, even though Duke's offense is ranked 68th, it might not have to work too hard against A&M's defense, which is one of the worst in the land (#108).
  
  I expect a high–scoring game, but, ultimately, I expect the Aggies to wear down the Blue Devils. I think Texas A&M will win by at least two touchdowns.

New Year's Day

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• TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs. #23 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the third meeting of these schools, each time in a different bowl.
  
  They first met in the 1969 Sun Bowl, a 45–6 Nebraska victory. They met for a second time last New Year's Day in the Capital One Bowl. Georgia won that one with a second–half rally, 45–31.
  
  In the old days, I guess it would have been easy to pick Nebraska to prevail. But times have change, and Georgia is the one with the national ranking this time.
  
  And Georgia enters the game with the better offense by far. But that was almost entirely when star quarterback Aaron Murray was running the offense. Murray's season ended with a knee injury, and junior Hutson Mason, next year's projected starter, will be starting against Nebraska. Mason did all right in his first start, the season finale against Georgia Tech, but it remains to be seen if the Georgia offense will live up to its regular–season standards against the Cornhuskers.
  
  Nebraska does have a better defense than Georgia, and that might be significant against an inexperienced quarterback.
  
  Even so, I expect Georgia to win.
• Capital One Bowl: #19 Wisconsin vs. #8 South Carolina, noon (Central) on ABC: These teams have never faced each other before so the Capital One Bowl marks the first chapter of their series.
  
  Even though South Carolina, as a team, is ranked higher than Wisconsin, the Badgers are ranked ahead of the Gamecocks in both offense and defense.
  
  In fact, Wisconsin is ranked sixth in both total and run defense.
  
  According to USA Today, the running game will figure prominently for both teams. I believe that is true. Wisconsin has the eighth–ranked rushing offense; South Carolina's running game is ranked 30th.
  
  I think Wisconsin will win.
• Outback Bowl: Iowa vs. #14 LSU, noon (Central) on ESPN: The last time these teams met, in the 2005 Capital One Bowl, Iowa won a thriller to ruin Nick Saban's last game as LSU's coach.
  
  People tended to overlook Iowa this year, largely because the Hawkeyes lost their season opener and then lost three of four in the middle of the season. Also, Iowa fell from the national radar after going 4–8 last year.
  
  But Iowa had the seventh–best defense in the nation this year. LSU's offense is good — ranked 26th — which sets up an interesting confrontation.
  
  It probably won't be as interesting when Iowa has the ball. The Hawkeyes are 79th in offense while LSU is 20th in defense.
  
  There could be some psychological stuff at work here. While LSU retains its national reputation, the Tigers have lost three of their last four bowl appearances.
  
  I think Iowa will win.
• Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO: #5 Stanford vs. #4 Michigan State, 4 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The old adage that defense wins championships — or, at least, bowl games — may never have been better represented than in this year's Rose Bowl.
  
  These teams have met five times over the years, but the series has been dormant since 1996, when Stanford blanked Michigan State in the Sun Bowl.
  
  For that matter, Michigan State hasn't beaten Stanford since 1961.
  
  But things might change. Michigan State has the best defense in the nation. The Spartans aren't likely to be intimidated by Stanford's 65th–ranked offense.
  
  When Michigan State's 82nd–ranked offense is on the field, it will have to contend with Stanford's 14th–ranked defense.
  
  To say that I anticipate a low–scoring game is an understatement. I think 17 points will be enough to win it.
  
  And I give the edge to Michigan State.
• Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: #15 UCF vs. #6 Baylor, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: My father usually only watches games that feature a personal rooting interest (team, player or coach) or a big name. A game between UCF and Baylor probably won't qualify.
  
  So why should you spend the first night of the year watching them play? Well, there are a few reasons. For one, Baylor is healthy again, and when all hands are on deck, the Bears are very entertaining. They have the best offense in the nation, averaging more than 50 points and more than 600 yards per game.
  
  UCF has the 19th–ranked defense in the land, but you have to wonder if the Knights will be able to contain Baylor's offense for 60 minutes.
  
  Baylor's 17th–ranked defense should have an easier time with UCF's 45th–ranked offense.
  
  The Wall Street Journal calls this the "Sharknado" bowl. I pick Baylor to win it by two touchdowns.

Thursday, Jan. 2

• Allstate Sugar Bowl: #11 Oklahoma vs. #3 Alabama, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As much as these schools have dominated the college football landscape for decades, I was astonished to learn they have only met four times — and two of those meetings came in the last 11 years.
  
  Oklahoma won the encounters in 2002 and 2003. The two earlier meetings were in bowl games — the 1963 Orange Bowl (won by Alabama) and the 1970 Bluebonnet Bowl (a tie).
  
  Back before the season began, OU coach Bob Stoops alleged that the Southeastern Conference, which has been home to the last seven national champions, was top–heavy. I know Alabama is disappointed to not be playing for a third straight national title, but it seems to me that Nick Saban should drag out that press clipping if he wants to motivate the Crimson Tide.
  
  Heisman runnerup A.J. McCarron leads an offense that is ranked 36th in the nation but is 21st running the ball. Oklahoma has a good defense (13th in the nation), and it was successful against both the run and the pass this season, but the Sooners were more successful against the pass than the run.
  
  When Oklahoma has the ball, the Sooners probably would prefer to run the ball, given that their ground game is ranked 18th in the country. But Alabama's run defense is ranked 11th so common sense suggests that, at some point, OU will have to go to the air, and that is a recipe for disaster. Oklahoma's passing offense is 99th while Alabama's pass defense is ranked fifth.
  
  I expect Alabama to win by a couple of touchdowns.

Friday, Jan. 3

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• Discover Orange Bowl: #12 Clemson vs. #7 Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Someone ought to call this the Woody Hayes Bowl because these were the two teams that participated in the Gator Bowl 35 years ago when Hayes slugged a Clemson player and wound up being terminated by Ohio State.
  
  That is the only time these two schools have faced each other — until now.
  
  Clemson played in the Orange Bowl two years ago and gave up an Orange Bowl–record 70 points, smashing a record that had stood for nearly 60 years. There are probably a few Tigers remaining from that roster, and I'm sure they would like to leave Miami with a better taste in their mouths this time.
  
  As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes were a Big Ten championship away from playing for the national title but lost to Michigan State, snapping a 24–game winning streak that was often said to be light on quality opposition. A win over a credible program like Clemson would go a long way toward rebuilding Ohio State's legitimacy as a national contender.
  
  In the end, though, I expect about the same outcome as in the 1978 Gator Bowl — minus the Woody Hayes punch. I think Clemson will claim a narrow win.
• AT&T Cotton Bowl: #13 Oklahoma State vs. #9 Missouri, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: As colleagues in the Big Eight and Big 12 conferences, OSU and Missouri have a long history.
  
  In fact, their first six games were played when they were not conference rivals. But every game they played between 1960 and 2011 were as members of the same conference.
  
  OSU came out on the short end of the stick nine of the first 10 times the schools met, and the Cowboys have never been able to overtake the Tigers in their all–time series.
  
  After they joined the Big 12, they didn't play each other every year anymore because they were in different divisions. But they met annually from 1960 to 1997. Missouri was the winner most of the time, but Oklahoma State did reel off seven straight wins over Missouri from 1984 to 1990.
  
  That was Oklahoma State's longest winning streak in the series. The Cowboys are currently enjoying their second–longest winning streak (three in a row) against Missouri. Will they extend it?
  
  I think it's a tough call. This has the potential to be the closest bowl game of them all, but I think Missouri will pull it off.

Monday, Jan. 6

• VIZIO BCS National Championship: #1 Florida State vs. #2 Auburn, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: History is on Auburn's side in this game. These teams have met 18 times since 1954, and Auburn has dominated the series, 13–4–1.
  
  But this series is kind of a "that was then, this is now" kind of series. Auburn went 9–0–1 against Florida State the first 10 times they played each other, but since 1977, the series is dead even, 4–4. In fact, the Seminoles have won three of the last four encounters, including a victory in the Jan. 2, 1989 Sugar Bowl.
  
  But they haven't met since 1990 — when Bobby Bowden coached the Seminoles and Pat Dye coached the Tigers.
  
  Florida State's offense and defense both rank higher than Auburn's, but many college football fans are quick to point out that Auburn plays in the mighty Southeastern Conference — in a division that requires the Tigers to play Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M every season — whereas Florida State plays in the Atlantic Coast Conference, a conference that is better known for its basketball prowess.
  
  There is truth in that.
  
  But Florida State has been thrashing everyone it has faced this season, and Heisman winner Jameis Winston completed nearly 68% of his passes and had a ratio of touchdowns to interceptions of nearly 4–to–1. Auburn's defense is 63rd in passing efficiency, 104th in general passing defense.
  
  I pick Florida State to end the SEC's BCS dominance.

Last week: 7–3

Season: 224–46

2003: A Juice Odyssey

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Forty years ago today, my father was finishing up his sabbatical in Nashville, and my family was about to return to my hometown in Arkansas.

I remember that my brother and I had just finished school and been dismissed for the Christmas holiday, and we had been withdrawn from school by my mother. We would enroll in school for the spring term in my hometown in January.

Most of our furniture (except for our beds) was rented because we knew we would only be there four months, but we had many personal possessions to pack.

The plan was to leave Nashville around Monday or Tuesday, drive home and unload all our personal possessions, then (after returning the U–Haul trailer) hit the road for Dallas to spend Christmas with my grandmothers.

We were making progress in packing our things, but on this day, which was a Sunday in 1973, we stopped what we were doing to watch O.J. Simpson of the Buffalo Bills try to do what no one had ever been able to do before — run for 2,000 yards in a season.

Actually, the emphasis was on setting a single–season rushing record. Finishing the season with 2,000 yards was viewed, right up to kickoff, as a still possible but far from probable outcome.

No matter how it may seem from the perspective of 40 years later, Simpson needed nearly 200 yards in the final game of the season to make it to 2,000. He had done that before during the 1973 season but not in his earlier match with the New York Jets, one of the Bills' division rivals and their opponent that day. Two hundred yards didn't seem a realistic goal. His realistic objective that day was to pass the legendary Jim Brown, who ran for 1,863 yards in a single season 10 years earlier.

Simpson needed only 60 yards to match Brown, and common sense said he could get that with ease. Simpson ran for twice as many yards when the teams met back in the third week of the season. Only the defending Super Bowl champion Miami Dolphins and their no–name defense had held Simpson to fewer than 60 yards in a game.

Momentum was clearly on Simpson's side. He had run for more than 100 yards in each of the last four games (would have been five, but he fell a single yard short against the Cincinnati Bengals in mid–November).

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As I say, he needed nearly 200 yards to break the 2,000–yard barrier, and most observers dismissed that as unrealistic. True, he had run for more than 200 yards the week before, but that was against another division rival, the New England Patriots, and Simpson had run for more than 200 yards against the Patriots in the season opener as well — but he hadn't managed to do it against anyone else.

In a steady snowfall, it was clear early that Simpson would set a new single–season rushing record. The next obvious question was whether he could reach the barrier of 2,000 yards against the Jets, who were 4–9.

Simpson was more dramatic on that one, going down to the wire before finally notching his 2,000th yard late in the fourth quarter of the last regular–season game.

The argument can be made that the Jets had nothing for which to play, but the same could be said of the Bills.

And, mind you, I make no excuses for anything Simpson may have done since his playing career ended. Forty years ago, he was the hottest thing in football, virtually the Johnny Football of his day. Whatever role he may or may not have played in the murders of his ex–wife and her friend and the crimes of which he was convicted in Nevada, they were still more than 20 years in the future.

Others have broken that 2,000–yard barrier since then. But Simpson is the only one to achieve it in 14 games. All the others ran for 2,000–plus yards in 16–game seasons.

O.J.'s is an accomplishment that may never be duplicated.