Thursday, October 25, 2012

Sooners, Irish to Face Off



Fifty–six years ago this Saturday, Oklahoma recorded its one and only football victory over Notre Dame.

So far.

That game was played in South Bend, Ind. The teams have met four times in Norman, Okla., where this Saturday's game will be played, and the Irish have won them all.

There are few — if any — other schools that can claim to have winning records against the Sooners. But Notre Dame can.

And the Irish would be undefeated against Oklahoma — if not for that game that was played 56 years ago.

(The Associated Press reports that "[n]o team has had as much success against the Sooners having played at least that many games.")

Oklahoma was in the midst of its record–setting 47–game winning streak, which ran from 1953 to 1957. The Irish were the last to beat the Sooners on Sept. 26, 1953, before the streak began, and they were the ones who ended the streak on Nov. 16, 1957 (coincidentally, the 50th anniversary of Oklahoma's admission to the Union).

In between, the Sooners hammered Notre Dame, 40–0, on Oct. 27, 1956.

That 1957 loss still irritates long–time Sooner faithful.

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly has been approaching the Oklahoma game as one of many, reports The Oklahoman.

"That's it?" asks Stephanie Kuzydym. "That's what history of breaking OU's record 47–game win streak and an 8–1 series advantage means to Notre Dame?"

Idle: #6 LSU, #25 West Virginia

Today
  • #14 Clemson at Wake Forest, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have faced each other on the football field every year but two since 1933.

    Clemson has dominated the series, 59–17–1, and the Tigers have been especially successful at home, where they are 35–7. The Tigers also have a winning record at Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons have been tougher there. Every victory Wake Forest has against Clemson in the last 13 years has come at Wake Forest.

    I just don't think Wake Forest can win this one. I'll take Clemson.
Friday
  • Cincinnati at #16 Louisville, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is a tighter series than you might think.

    And, if Cincinnati had not lost last week, it most likely would be a matchup of Top 25 teams.

    With its win last year, Cincinnati matched its longest winning streak against Louisville — four straight games. A win tomorrow night would be Cincinnati's fifth in a row.

    But I just don't think it will happen. I think Louisville will win.
Saturday
  • #13 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Mississippi State has a lot of anger at Alabama that has been accumulating over the years.

    These teams have been playing each other since 1902, and the Crimson Tide has won more than 80% of the time.

    Mississippi State has some talent this year. In fact, there really isn't a lot that separates the two teams on offense. Alabama is ranked 39th in the nation; MSU is 50th.

    The glaring difference is on defense, where Alabama continues to be rated the best in the country. Make no mistake about it; MSU is pretty good on defense, too (#25 in the nation), but the challenge facing the Crimson Tide is not as great as the one facing the Bulldogs.

    Especially since the Tide is at home. I think Alabama will win this one.
  • Colorado at #2 Oregon, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: You probably wouldn't think it, given these two teams' recent histories, but the all–time series between these schools is dead even, 8–8.

    Oddsmakers don't have any faith in Colorado, and why should they? Colorado is 1–6; Oregon is 7–0. Oregon's offense may not be as potent as it has been in recent seasons, but the Ducks are #8 in the nation in that category. Colorado isn't in the Top 100.

    And Oregon has the edge on defense. The Ducks haven't been as impressive on that side of the ball, but they're ranked 46th, which should be good enough. That looks really good next to Colorado's #112 ranking.

    What's more, Oregon is the home team — and the Ducks haven't lost at home to Colorado since 1967.

    Oddsmakers made Oregon a 45½–1point favorite. That's good enough for me. I'll go with Oregon.
  • #3 Florida vs. #12 Georgia at Jacksonville, Fla., 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Only a few rivalry games are still played at neutral sites. Georgia–Florida is one of them.

    OK, Jacksonville isn't really a neutral site. It's only about an hour's drive from the Florida campus whereas it is about a four–hour drive from the Georgia campus.

    This will be their 78th game at a neutral site (most of them have been played in Jacksonville), and Georgia has the lead at neutral sites, 40–36–1.

    The teams provide an interesting contrast.

    Georgia, on the one hand, has been winning with its offense (#18 in the land) while Florida, ranked #100, clearly has struggled.

    The Gators, however, have been winning in true SEC style — on defense. Florida is tied for seventh in that category with Texas Tech. In this category, it is Georgia that has struggled — although not nearly as much as Florida has struggled on offense. The Bulldogs are #47 in defense.

    But this is the game known as the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." It should be a very entertaining way to spend a Saturday afternoon especially if you are a fan of Georgia — my upset special.
  • #15 Texas Tech at #4 Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These schools first met in 1933, and Tech enjoys a 2–to–1 advantage in the all–time series.

    Statistically, Tech has an edge today, with offensive and defensive units that are both in the national Top 15.

    And Tech has won three–quarters of its game in Manhattan, Kansas. All that seems to spell a big win for Tech.

    So I'll make that my second upset special this week — Texas Tech to beat Kansas State.
  • #5 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Okies are justifiably proud of that 47–game winning streak I mentioned earlier.

    It was quite an accomplishment then, and it should be regarded as more of one today, more than half a century after it was achieved.

    But attention should be on this game, not the ones that were played in 1956 or 1957.

    OU has the edge on offense. The Sooners are ranked 17th in the nation whereas Notre Dame is 74th. Astonishingly (at least in comparison to previous national champions and national championship contenders from Oklahoma), the Sooners have accomplished this largely on the strength of their passing game (although the running game ain't too shabby, either).

    Notre Dame's defense might be prepared for OU's offense; the Irish are sixth in the nation. But Oklahoma's defense is in the national Top 20, too, and should be ready for what Notre Dame has on offense.

    I'll take Oklahoma in a narrow decision.
  • #7 Oregon State at Washington, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: If you conducted a poll of sportswriters who cover the Pac–12, they might conclude that Oregon State's ascendance is the surprise of the year.

    And there is a good case to be made for that. The Beavers were 3–9 last year, 5–7 the year before that.

    But somehow I doubt that the Huskies would be surprised that Oregon State is undefeated so far. Washington leads the all&ndsh;time series, but Oregon State has won seven of its last eight confrontations with Washington.

    The good news for Washington is that the Huskies' only win over the Beavers since 2003 came in Seattle two years ago. Will lightning strike twice?

    Well, if it turns out to be an offensive game, you'd have to favor Oregon State, although neither team has been especially strong on offense. But the Beavers, ranked 48th, have a decided advantage over the Huskies (#103).

    If it's a defensive game, I still have to give the edge to Oregon State — but it will be considerably smaller. OSU is 37th on defense; Washington is 55th.

    Oregon State can't afford to get sloppy. The Beavers have crucial games with Stanford and Oregon coming up in the next few weeks. The 3–4 Huskies would just like to get back to .500.

    I pick Oregon State.
  • #9 Ohio State at Penn State, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Ohio State's offense — powered by Braxton Miller and the nation's 10th–best running attack — is 40th in the nation. Penn State's offense is ranked 59th.

    But Penn State has a deceptively dangerous defense, which is ranked 22nd in the nation.

    The Nittany Lions have accomplished that largely while the national spotlight was shining brightly elsewhere.

    When Penn State started the season at 9–2, I think most fans dismissed this as a rebuilding year for a program that was hit pretty hard by NCAA sanctions. Well, don't look now, but the Nittany Lions have won five straight.

    Asking them to keep that streak alive against the Buckeyes may be too much to ask, though. Ohio State narrowly leads the all–time series — a lead the Buckeyes claimed by going 7–3 in their last 10 games with the Nittany Lions.

    It should be entertaining, for awhile, but I really don't think the Nittany Lions have the depth to shut down the Buckeyes for an entire afternoon. I pick Ohio State to win.
  • #10 Southern Cal at Arizona, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I really haven't followed the Pac–12 too closely over the years.

    But my assumption would be that Southern Cal has pretty much dominated every team in the conference. The Trojans always seemed to be in the Rose Bowl (which has been the postseason reward for the conference champion practically since time began) when I was growing up.

    I don't know if Southern Cal has dominated every team in the conference, but the Trojans have certainly dominated Arizona. Southern Cal has won more than three–quarters of their games (26–7), and the Trojans have won all but one of their contests with the Wildcats since 2001.

    But it might surprise you to realize that Arizona's offense currently ranks higher than Southern Cal's. Arizona is #4 in the land; Southern Cal is #47. When you remember that the Pac–12 has always been more offensively oriented than defensively oriented, that's an important factor to keep in mind.

    If, on the other hand, defense dominates the game, that would favor Southern Cal. The Trojans' defense is 30th in the nation; Arizona's defense, currently ranked 104th, has struggled.

    I think 6–1 Southern Cal, whose defense has been playing especially well in recent games, will handle Arizona.
  • Duke at #11 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: For the first time in nearly two decades, Duke is bowl eligible.

    But the Blue Devils figure to have their hands full with the Seminoles.

    Florida State is ranked #2 in defense (behind only Alabama). Duke, meanwhile, ranks #68.

    The Duke defense will have a tough assignment trying to control Florida State's 10th–ranked offense. Duke's offense is ranked 52nd, which isn't bad but seems ill–equipped to overcome Florida State's defense.

    I pick Florida State.
  • Tennessee at #17 South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Tennessee is an improved team. I think just about any observer of college football would agree with that.

    But the Volunteers also have to be a little worn out after three straight losses to ranked teams (Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama). That makes their record this year against ranked teams 0–4 (including the Vols' loss to Florida in September).

    And now they must travel to South Carolina to take on the 17th–ranked Gamecocks. Life is not easy when you are a member of the Southeastern Conference.

    If Tennessee loses this game, the Volunteers will be 3–5, with all five losses coming against Top 25 teams, but then they will embark on a four–game stretch that could not only make them bowl eligible but could land them in a reasonably decent bowl to boot.

    The Vols' postseason prospects would be considerably brighter if they could win this road game. But is it possible?

    Well, the history of the series favors Tennessee, which is 22–6–2 against South Carolina all time. But the Gamecocks have won three of the last four meetings.

    Tennessee's offense has been more productive than South Carolina's. But South Carolina has been much more successful on defense than Tennessee.

    Sounds like a split to me. In such a case, I tend to side with the better defense, which belongs to South Carolina, so that's my pick.
  • Kent State at #18 Rutgers, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big East Network: These teams have only played each other twice, and Rutgers won both contests.

    Rutgers has the 14th–best defense in the country, which should be adequate for stopping Kent's 68th–ranked offense. Kent's defense, meanwhile, is 71st in the land, and its face–offs with Rutgers' #97 offense might prove to be fairly even.

    I favor Rutgers.
  • Washington State at #19 Stanford, 5:15 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This will be the 63rd time these teams have met since 1936, and Stanford has a comfortable lead in the series.

    Stanford has also won six of the last eight meetings.

    Thus far, neither team has been terribly impressive on offense so, logically, the best defense will probably prevail. That would be Stanford, which is 34th in the nation in defense (Washington State isn't even in the Top 100).

    Accordingly, I will pick Stanford.
  • #20 Michigan at Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the eighth time these teams have played since 1905.

    Series history isn't of much help in this case. Michigan does lead the series, which could be instructive given the fact that the Wolverines are ranked and the Cornhuskers are not.

    But Michigan's last visit to Nebraska (in 1911) ended in a 6–6 tie.

    Thus far, Nebraska has been much better on offense and Michigan has been better on defense. Which will prevail?

    Well, I'm inclined to think that Michigan, boasting a better defense and home field advantage, will win this game.
  • #21 Boise State at Wyoming, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Wyoming has never beaten Boise State.

    The teams have played six times, three times on each campus, and Boise State has won each game by an average of 20 points.

    Wyoming is actually ranked ahead of Boise State — slightly — on offense, but neither team has been very impressive on offense.

    That in itself is kind of remarkable for Boise State, which has been noted in the past for its offense.

    But, this year, Boise is known for its defense, which ranks 20th in the nation. The 1–6 Cowboys are ranked 99th.

    It seems clear to me that Boise State will win.
  • #22 Texas A&M at Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have only played twice — and neither game was played at Auburn.

    The first meeting was in 1911 in Dallas, which is not where A&M is located, but it was regarded as an Aggie home game on that occasion. I suppose the Aggies were considered the home team the second time the teams met, nearly 75 years later in the Jan. 1, 1986 Cotton Bowl.

    The Aggies won both games — and I'm inclined to think they will win this one, too. A&M has the ninth–best offense in the land (Auburn is 119th and has scored more than 20 points only once in seven games). Neither team is ranked very highly on defense, but A&M is ahead of Auburn. Not by much, but how far ahead do they have to be against the next–to–least productive offense in the country?

    I pick Texas A&M with confidence.
  • #23 Ohio at Miami (Ohio), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have been playing each other annually for 50 years, and it's been a pretty competitive series.

    Miami (Ohio) holds the edge overall, but Ohio has won the last six. Ohio has been better — considerably better — on both sides of the ball.

    I don't think anything more needs to be said. I'll go with Ohio.
  • #24 Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State: I'm tempted to say there is no hope for New Mexico State in this game.

    Louisiana Tech is 6&ndsh;2 all time against New Mexico State and has won the last five in a row. With the nation's second–ranked offense (led by QB Colby Cameron and running back Kenneth Dixon), Tech clearly outclasses NMSU, which is ranked 94th.

    At 1–6, New Mexico State is on track for its 10th straight losing season; meanwhile, 6–1 Tech is trying to land a prestigious bowl bid.

    However ...

    There is some hopeful news to report for NMSU fans.

    For one thing, New Mexico State is 2–2 when the game is played in Las Cruces, as this year's is.

    And, although NMSU's defense is ranked 100th in the nation, that's better than Louisiana Tech, which is 119th. I suppose you have to chalk that one up to the fact that they have played Texas A&M this season — and the twice–beaten Aggies are in the Top 10 nationally in offense.

    Oh, well, who am I kidding? Louisiana Tech will win this game.
Last week: 16–5

Season: 129–30

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Sixth-ranked Tigers Return to Aggieland



Unless you're over 25, you probably don't remember, but LSU–Texas A&M was quite a rivalry once upon a time.

Sure, LSU has always had a rivalry with Alabama, and A&M is best known for its rivalry with Texas, and, for many years, those rivalries were played out within the conferences in which LSU and A&M competed.

But, outside the conference, few rivalries could match the intensity of LSU against Texas A&M. Unfortunately, they let the rivalry lapse for several periods over the years.

They renewed their rivalry in the 2011 Cotton Bowl (won by LSU, 41–24). It was the first time they had played since 1995.

But now that they're in the Southeastern Conference together — and in the same division — they'll be playing each other every year.

Idle: #25 Ohio

Today
  • #2 Oregon at Arizona State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have faced each other 32 times since meeting for the first time in 1966, and each team has won 16 times.

    That's about as close as a series can be.

    It's been pretty one–sided for the last seven years, though. Oregon has won all seven of the encounters since 2005, including the last four in Tempe.

    Arizona State's fourth–ranked defense might have something to say about that, though. Since the Sun Devils will be facing the nation's eighth–ranked offense, that will make the occasions when Oregon has the ball well worth watching.

    Not that it will be time to take out the trash or use the restroom when ASU has the ball, but the rankings aren't as gaudy. ASU's offense is pretty good (#24 in the nation); Oregon's defense is good but not great (#43).

    Nevertheless, I think Oregon will prevail.
Saturday
  • #1 Alabama at Tennessee, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Alabama has many rivals, but, historically, there are three main rivals — Auburn, LSU and the team the Crimson Tide will face this Saturday, Tennessee.

    It is known as the "Third Saturday in October," which has been, traditionally, the calendar date on which the game has been played. Alabama leads the series, 48–38–7 — and, thanks to the Tide's triumph in Missouri last week, Alabama has won at least as many as it has lost to every team in the Southeastern Conference.

    Missouri, of course, just joined the SEC this year (as did #20 Texas A&M) and had only played Alabama three times. Of the current SEC members, only Mississippi State has played Alabama more often than Tennessee — and no SEC school has beaten Alabama more often than Tennessee.

    But Alabama has won the last five meetings.

    You know, it is really hard for me to predict that the nation's best defense will be defeated. And that is what I would have to do if I picked Tennessee to win.

    I think the Volunteers are an improved team this year, and they will again be factors in the SEC in the years ahead, but I have to pick Alabama to win this game.
  • #9 South Carolina at #3 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel writes that there is much excitement in Gainesville, Fla., about the South Carolina–Florida game that will be played there this weekend.

    Part of the excitement, no doubt, has to do with the fact that South Carolina practically never wins at Florida.

    The teams have played 16 times in Gainesville, and South Carolina has left there with a victory only once (there were ties in Tampa and Jacksonville, both of which were considered home games for the Gators, in 1921 and 1931).

    On offense, Florida has a narrow edge — the Gators are ranked 82nd and the Gamecocks are ranked 83rd — but Ben Kercheval of NBC Sports reports that South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore has a hip injury and may not play.

    That could make a big difference, especially since the teams are just as close in the defensive rankings — South Carolina is ranked 12th, Florida is ranked 13th.

    I think Florida will win, even if Lattimore can play.
  • #4 Kansas State at #17 West Virginia, 6 p. m. (Central) on Fox: Both these teams were well regarded before the season began, but hardly anyone had this game circled on the schedule as a must–see matchup.

    Nevertheless, it is a very big game in the Big 12 with potential significance for the national title picture. Not bad for a couple of schools that haven't faced each other in more than 80 years.

    Dave Skretta of the Associated Press writes that K–State has "a pretty good blueprint for success."

    We'll see, I suppose. KSU does have a better defense, by far, and the Wildcats will need it, given that they will be facing Geno Smith and the nation's sixth–ranked offense.

    I'm inclined to think West Virginia will win this game.
  • Brigham Young at #5 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams have only met six times previously, and the Irish have won four of them.

    What's more, Notre Dame is 3–1 against BYU at South Bend.

    Actually, BYU is ranked slightly ahead of Notre Dame in total offense — but neither team has been particularly strong on offense. Defense is where both teams have stood out and, so far, BYU is ranked sixth in the nation while Notre Dame is 11th.

    Perhaps the home field advantage will boost the Irish in this one, but, right now, I'm picking Brigham Young to pull off the upset and win in South Bend for the first time in nearly 20 years.
  • #6 LSU at #20 Texas A&M, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 50th time these teams have played, but it will be their first encounter as conference foes.

    Historically, LSU does not have a good record at College Station. The Aggies lead the series there, 9–2–1, and haven't lost to LSU at home in 25 years.

    LSU will be bringing the nation's second–best defense to Texas. The Aggies, on the other hand, have the sixth–best offense, which should make for some intriguing moments when A&M has the ball.

    It will be interesting — albeit sloppier — when LSU has the ball. The Tigers are 73rd in offense; the Aggies are 72nd in defense.

    LSU still has one of the best teams in the country, but I'm not sure they're good enough to win on the road against a good opponent — and A&M is a good opponent.

    Consequently, I pick Texas A&M to win.
  • Purdue at #7 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Ohio State has owned Purdue historically — but the Buckeyes' dominance has been especially pronounced in Columbus.

    Ohio State is 26–6–2 against the Boilermakers at home — and Purdue hasn't won there since 1988.

    But what about 2012? Well, Ohio State is currently 34th in total offense, thanks to Braxton Miller; Purdue is 77th. Neither team has been particularly impressive on defense. Ohio State ranks 69th; Purdue is 76th.

    I don't see how Ohio State can be denied.
  • Utah at #8 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Last week, I said I wasn't sold on the Beavers yet.

    But I'm getting there.

    In the matter at hand, Oregon State leads Utah all time, mostly on the strength of their record in Corvallis. The Beavers are 6–2–1 against Utah at home.

    Offense has long been the dominant characteristic of Pac–12 teams. Oregon State isn't quite at the level of in–state rival Oregon, but the Beavers are ranked 32nd (thanks largely to Sean Mannion's 63% pass completion rate), which is well ahead of Utah at #114.

    Utah's defense, though, is rated higher than Oregon State's (#35 and #45, respectively), but it seems to me the Beavers are more than ready to shut down the Utes. I pick Oregon State to win.
  • Kansas at #10 Oklahoma, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: When I was a journalism professor at OU, I used to have season tickets to see the basketball team play.

    Those were the only times a KU–OU ticket was really hot when I lived in Norman. Kansas' football team has only had seven winning seasons in the last 30 years — but the Jayhawks still managed to beat the Sooners twice in the four years I was there.

    (Suffice to say I did not live in Oklahoma during the Sooners' glory years.)

    The Sooners have won 69 of the 102 football games the schools have played, including the last seven in a row. And I can't come up with a plausible reason why Kansas would win. I pick Oklahoma.
  • Colorado at #11 Southern California, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These teams have played six times through the years, and the Trojans have won all six games.

    Southern Cal's offense is only ranked 57th (Colorado's is 103rd), but the Trojans are 25th in defense (Colorado is 113th).

    Can Colorado get its first win over Southern Cal? No. I have to go with Southern Cal.
  • #12 Florida State at Miami (Fla.), 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have played each other almost every year since the mid–1950s — and Miami holds a 29–25 lead.

    But Florida State has won five of the last seven meetings. I think it will be six of the last eight. My money is on Florida State.
  • #13 Georgia at Kentucky, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Look high and low, but you won't find many series that have been as one–sided as this one.

    These teams first played each other in 1939, and they have been meeting annually since 1956 — 65 meetings so far. And Georgia has won 80% of them.

    So is there any hope for Kentucky in the numbers? Not really. Thanks to QB Aaron Murray and running back Todd Gurley, Georgia is #20 nationally in offense (Kentucky is 113th). The teams are a little closer on defense — Georgia is ranked 50th, Kentucky is 77th.

    I just can't see any way the Wildcats can win this game, even at home. My pick is Georgia.
  • Virginia Tech at #14 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 31st time these teams have faced each other, and Clemson has won 18 of the previous meetings.

    Considering Virginia Tech's reputation, that may come as a surprise. But Clemson, behind QB Tajh Boyd and halfback Andre Ellington, has a decisive edge on offense. Ranked #13 on offense, the Tigers may prove to be too much for Virginia Tech, which has the edge on defense but is only ranked 55th nationally.

    I like Clemson in this one.
  • Middle Tennessee at #15 Mississippi State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 Mississippi State is 4–0 all time against Middle Tennessee — with an average victory margin of three touchdowns.

    Middle Tennessee actually has the 43rd–ranked offense in the nation (compared to Mississippi State's #59 unit), but Mississippi State has the #25 defense in the land (Middle Tennessee's is 94th).

    I'm inclined to think Mississippi State will win rather handily.
  • South Florida at #16 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: If Louisville can win this game, it will knot up the all–time series at 5&ndsh;5.

    And history favors it. Louisville is 3–1 at home against South Florida. The hitch is that South Florida won in 2010, the last time South Florida visited Louisville.

    Will history repeat itself? Well, there really isn't much difference between the two on offense — Louisville is ranked 62nd; South Florida is 67th. But the numbers on defense really make you think. Louisville is #24 in the nation; South Florida is #60.

    Louisville appears ready to even up the series.
  • #18 Texas Tech at TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have only met twice since they stopped being members of the same conference in the mid–1990s — and both times, the home team won.

    They're in the same conference again, and the outcomes of their last two games are really typical of this series. Each has a winning record at home — which might be a good omen for TCU except that Texas Tech looked really good against West Virginia last week and TCU has looked really bad without its starting quarterback.

    (I mean, TCU lost at home to the same Iowa State team that Tech beat on the road the week before.)

    Texas Tech currently has the nation's 10th–best offense whereas TCU's is 45th. Now, that wouldn't be so bad — if it weren't for the fact that the Red Raiders rank fourth in defense. TCU is a respectable 15th in defense, but the fact remains that Tech is ahead of TCU in both categories — and the Red Raiders have already played Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma (both schools have yet to play Texas and Kansas State).

    It seems to me that TCU is a team on the way down while Tech is a team on the way up. I figured things might be rough for the Frogs, this being their first Big 12 season and all, but it might get really rough for them this weekend. I pick Texas Tech.
  • #19 Rutgers at Temple, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East Network: This is the 35th time these teams have faced each other, and Rutgers holds a narrow 18–16 lead.

    Both teams have the advantage at home. In Rutgers' case, the record is 12–7.

    Rutgers also has been more productive on both sides of the ball, but neither offense has been exceptionally impressive. Rutgers, however, has the nation's 18th–best defense — much better than Temple's #61 defense.

    On the strength of its defense, I pick Rutgers.
  • #21 Cincinnati at Toledo, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com Cincinnati has been showing up a lot on ESPN3.com lately.

    It's only been a three–game series so far with only one of those games — the first one, back in 1993 — having been played in Toledo. That is the only time Cincinnati has beaten Toledo, by the way.

    Home field has not been an advantage for either side. Toledo won the rematch in Cincinnati (and the 2001 Motor City Bowl).

    Offense might be the key, and both teams are ranked in the Top 30. Cincinnati's 39th–ranked defense should be better prepared to handle Toledo's offense than Toledo's #108 defense will be to stymie Cincinnati's offense.

    Accordingly, I have to pick Cincinnati.
  • #22 Stanford at California, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: The "Big Game," as this rivalry is called, is the oldest rivalry in the Pac–12.

    This will be the 92nd time they have met on the football field since 1918, a streak that was interrupted only by the war years of the 1940s. Stanford leads the series and has won the last two.

    In the first year of the post–Andrew Luck era, Stanford's offense has struggled (currently ranked 91st). Cal's, meanwhile, has been good but not great (#56).

    The edge on defense belongs to Stanford (ranked 48th; Cal's is 76th).

    Anything can happen in a rivalry game like this one, and I pick California to take what will most likely be regarded as an upset.
  • Michigan State at #23 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The battle for Michigan has been fought 86 times, and the Wolverines have won most of the time (52–30–4), but it has definitely been a streaky series in recent years.

    Michigan State has won the last four games in a row (and, according to the Detroit News, the Spartans, who have been disappointing this year, are eager to make it five in a row); before that, Michigan was the winner in six consecutive contests.

    Michigan State has never won five straight against Michigan. The Spartans had won four in a row three separate times before last year's victory — and, in their most recent such streak, they could have won seven in a row had it not been for a tie in one of their games.

    It's been a disappointing year for the Spartans, and I know it would make up for a lot if they could win this game, but I don't think they will. I pick Michigan.
  • UNLV at #24 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBCSN: These teams met for the first time last year, and Boise State won, 48–21, at Las Vegas.

    Boise State was once one of the nation's most exciting offensive units, but UNLV enters this game with an edge in total offense. On the other hand, Boise has a significant edge in total defense — along with the home field advantage.

    I pick Boise State.
Last week: 16–2

Season: 113–25

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Renewing the Red River Rivalry


Earl Campbell ran for 126 yards and the game's only touchdown
when #5 Texas defeated #2 Oklahoma on Oct. 8, 1977.


This Saturday brings the 103rd meeting between Oklahoma and Texas in what is known as the Red River Rivalry.

As in most such border battles, there is a lot of pride involved. But a big portion of that pride comes from the fact that both OU and UT partisans are accustomed to having their teams in the Top 10 (if not the Top 5) when they play each other. Thus, there are national championship implications — even if neither team ends up playing for the national title.

The last time these teams met and neither team was ranked in the Top 10 was in 1999, when Texas was ranked 23rd and Oklahoma wasn't ranked at all. In fact, the 1990s was hardly the best decade in the series. Only the Oklahoma teams of 1990 and 1991 entered the game with Top 10 rankings.

It was a far cry from the 1970s and 1980s, when one or both teams routinely brought Top 10 rankings to Dallas' Cotton Bowl.

No matter what the rankings were, though, the OU–Texas game always seemed (to me) to be about two main things — ground games and defenses.

Having grown up in Arkansas and having graduated from the University of Arkansas, I have no fondness for the Texas Longhorns. Texas was Arkansas' greatest rival until the Razorbacks left the Southwest Conference in the early 1990s. It still isn't easy for me to go through an entire football season without an Arkansas–Texas football game.

For me, LSU and Alabama will always be surrogates for the real thing.

Actually, I have no real fondness for the Oklahoma Sooners, either, but the Razorbacks have seldom played Oklahoma. In fact, the teams have played each other only three times in my lifetime.

(Also, in the interest of full disclosure, I did work at OU as a journalism professor in the 1990s — and during that time, I did pull for the Sooners. But I stopped doing that when I left the campus.)

With Texas, it was different. The Longhorns played Arkansas every year. They were in the same conference. And Texas usually beat Arkansas every year. There were a few exceptions when I was growing up, but, for the most part, Texas prevailed.

I didn't pay much attention to the Texas–Oklahoma game most of the time. More often than not, both were undefeated — and they usually faced each other the week before Arkansas played Texas. I remember hoping that Texas and Oklahoma would beat each other senseless and fight to a draw (there was no overtime in college football in those days).

My hope was that Texas would limp into the game with Arkansas and, thus, be vulnerable. There were several occasions when Oklahoma hammered Texas, but it never really worked out that the Longhorns were so devastated that they could dispose of the Razorbacks.

Probably the OU–Texas game that made the greatest impression on me was the one played 35 years ago — when the series was known as the Red River Shootout. Behind a third–string quarterback named Randy McEachern and a powerful running back named Earl Campbell (who wound up winning the Heisman Trophy that year), fifth–ranked Texas defeated second–ranked Oklahoma, 13–6.

I hoped against hope that the Longhorns and their fans had exhausted themselves in the Cotton Bowl that October, but no such luck. Texas came to Fayetteville the following week and beat the Razorbacks, 13–9.

George Schroeder writes in USA Today that the series is losing its luster. But I don't agree. It still shines in these parts.

The OU–Texas football game, set against the backdrop of the Texas State Fair, is one of the great spectacles in college sports. Even if it doesn't have the dramatic twists and turns of that 1977 game, it is almost always worth watching.

Idle: #2 Oregon, #14 Georgia, #16 Clemson

Saturday
  • #1 Alabama at Missouri, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Missouri actually leads this series, but there's a catch. These teams haven't played each other in 34 years.

    Missouri won the first two meetings — in the 1968 Gator Bowl (35–10) and in Birmingham, Ala., in 1975 (20–7) — but Alabama won the only encounter where today's game will be played, Columbia, Mo., in 1978.

    If there is little to be learned from the past, perhaps the numbers from the present can give us some clues.

    For instance, Alabama has the top–rated defense in the nation; Missouri's defense is a respectable #26. I'm inclined to think that Alabama will have an easier time with Missouri's offense (ranked 96th) than Missouri will have with Alabama's offense (68th).

    What's more, unbeaten Alabama is coming off a bye week while Missouri is still looking for its first SEC win. I pick Alabama.
  • #3 South Carolina at #9 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 20th time these teams have played each other, and South Carolina has won only twice — in 1994 and in the very first meeting in 1930.

    That should provide plenty of incentive for the Gamecocks, and they're going to need it. LSU's third–ranked defense is likely to be a problem for South Carolina's offense (#63 in the nation), but LSU's 76th–rated offense isn't likely to be much more successful against South Carolina's #11 defense.

    I'll go with the home team — LSU.
  • #4 Florida at Vanderbilt, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have been playing each other regularly since the end of World War II, annually since 1992, and Florida has completely dominated the series.

    The Gators have compiled a 34–9–2 record against Vanderbilt, and they will be looking for their 22nd consecutive win over the Commodores today.

    I think they'll get it. Florida has the 12th–ranked defense in the nation (Vandy's defense is ranked 33rd). The offenses are similar — Florida's is ranked 88th, Vanderbilt's is 90th.

    But it's worth noting that the unbeaten Gators have already played Tennessee and LSU. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, played South Carolina tough on opening day but got blown out by Georgia.

    I feel confident in picking Florida to win.
  • #5 West Virginia at Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: West Virginia, with Geno Smith at quarterback, has the nation's third–ranked offense.

    Texas Tech's offense isn't too shabby, either, holding down the 16th spot in the national rankings.

    Texas Tech, however, has the #2 defense in the land, which would suggest that West Virginia's offense might have some trouble in Lubbock — except for a couple of things to keep in mind — 1) Oklahoma's offense is ranked 28th, pretty good, not perfect but it still slapped Tech around last week, and 2) West Virginia's defense is currently ranked #102, but the Mountaineers have had to fend off Texas and Baylor in the last couple of weeks, obstacles the Red Raiders have yet to face.

    The history of the series is of no help, either. The only other time these teams faced each other was in the Jan. 1, 1938 Sun Bowl (won by West Virginia, 7–6).

    It should be an interesting game, but I choose West Virginia to keep its Cinderella season going for another week.
  • #6 Kansas State at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: After knocking off TCU last weekend, Iowa State has the challenge of facing a Top 10 team this week.

    Iowa State holds the all–time edge in the series, but Kansas State has won five of the last six encounters — and, frankly, figures to make it six of the last seven.

    In the 95 games these teams have played, though, only two others were played on Oct. 13 (in 1951 and 1979), and Iowa State won both. I suppose that is as good a reason as any to be hopeful that Iowa State will prevail.

    The numbers from the current season don't offer much hope for the Cyclones. Kansas State's offense is ranked #41 in the nation (Iowa State's is 91st), although the Wildcats' defense is #44 (compared to Iowa State's 28th–ranked defense).

    History, however, suggests that Iowa State can be dangerous. TCU, of course, was the latest to learn that, losing to Iowa State last week and tumbling out of the Top 25. Last year, Oklahoma State stumbled in the same place where TCU did this year — and where Kansas State is playing today.

    I choose Kansas State.
  • #17 Stanford at #7 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: The first time these teams played, it was in the Rose Bowl, Knute Rockne was the coach of the Irish and Calvin Coolidge had just won a full term on his own after completing what remained of Warren Harding's term after his death.

    This will be the teams' 27th game, and, if the Irish win, they will have won exactly two–thirds of their encounters. But Stanford has won the last three in a row — and will be hoping to make it four straight.

    Can the Cardinal do it?

    I don't think so. Notre Dame has a higher ranked offense and defense — and the home field advantage. I don't think the Cardinal will be able to overcome that. Clearly — well, I presume it's clear — I choose Notre Dame.
  • #8 Ohio State at Indiana, 7 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This series is just about as lopsided as it gets.

    Ohio State has won 68 of 81 meetings (that's 86%) and 24 of 27 games played at Indiana (that's more than 90%).

    At this point in the season, Indiana has the nation's #26 offense (compared to Ohio State at #44). And the Hoosiers have been scoring a lot, even as they have taken three consecutive losses following a 2–0 start.

    But Indiana has the 94th–ranked defense — thanks in large part to giving up 116 points in the last three games.

    The 6–0 Buckeyes, on the other hand, had held all their opponents below 30 points until last week's 63–38 victory over Nebraska.

    Is there any chance Indiana can win? I don't think so. I pick Ohio State.
  • #10 Oregon State at Brigham Young, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Not nearly as productive offensively as its in–state rival, Oregon State does have a better defense than Oregon (but not by much).

    BYU, however, brings the fifth–ranked defense, which should be able to handle OSU's 32nd–ranked offense. QB Sean Mannion leads the Beavers.

    Once known for its prolific quarterbacks, BYU's offense now ranks #72, and that should be even easier for Oregon State's defense to deal with, even though the Beavers are ranked #39.

    I'm just not sold on the Beavers. Maybe I will be after their game with the Cougars. But they've only played two games at BYU — and the last one was in 1986 — so there really isn't much recent history to study.

    I'm going to go with Brigham Young and its defense.
  • #11 USC at Washington, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: The good news in this game is that the Huskies are at home.

    When they've had to play the Trojans in Los Angeles, they've lost nearly three–quarters of the time. But in Washington, the Huskies and Trojans are almost even. USC leads, 18–17–4.

    And the Huskies won the last time they played the Trojans in Washington — but that victory snapped a three–game winning streak for the visitors.

    History can tell you a lot about what to expect — but it isn't infallible. For that, it helps to know how the teams have been performing to date.

    And Southern Cal has just been better on both sides of the ball than Washington. I have to go with USC.
  • Boston College at #12 Florida State, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: When I was growing up, the cliche was that defense wins championships.

    In recent years, we've seen some exceptions to that rule — but, for the most part, it still seems to hold true.

    And Florida State has the nation's #4 defense — so far. If it plays up to expectations, Florida State should have little trouble with Boston College's 52nd–ranked offense.

    And I would expect the Seminoles' 14th–ranked offense (led by the nation's eighth–ranked QB, E.J. Manuel) to manhandle Boston College's defense, which hasn't even been good enough to rank in the Top 100.

    All this — and the home field, too. Give me Florida State.
  • #15 Texas vs. #13 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: When I was growing up, this series was never really known as an aerial circus.

    But, this year, Texas bring the #3 quarterback in the country, David Ash, who is completing more than 75% of his passes.

    The series really was known more for its punishing ground attacks — in that regard, OU has Damien Williams, who is averaging nearly eight yards per carry — and great defenses — OU's is 17th in the nation so far.

    But if the Sooners have the advantage on defense — and they do (Texas is ranked 74th) — the Longhorns have the edge (but, really, only slightly) on offense. Texas is 25th in that category; Oklahoma is 28th.

    In large part, I guess it could be said that Texas' numbers have been disproportionately affected by the Longhorns' recent schedule. They played Oklahoma State and West Virginia in the last two weeks, two of the best offenses in the country; Oklahoma will play those teams back to back in November.

    But the Sooners have faced Kansas State and Texas Tech in their last two games — and held both under 25 points.

    I think defense will prevail, and Oklahoma will beat Texas for the third straight time.
  • #18 Louisville at Pittsburgh, 10 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: I suppose one could be forgiven for wondering what is on the line in this game.

    Pittsburgh is 2–3 and winless in Big East play. Louisville is 5–0 and coming off a bye week.

    Well, Louisville might have something to prove, even against the likes of Pitt. Hold on to your hats, but Pittsburgh is ranked ahead of Louisville in both offense and defense.

    OK, the difference between them on defense is almost nonexistent — Pitt is 22nd, Louisville is 24th. It's much greater on offense, where Pittsburgh (led by QB Tino Sunseri) is ranked 31st and Louisville (led by QB Teddy Bridgewater and halfback Senorise Perry) is 70th.

    It's a streaky series. Louisville has lost the last four in a row, but, if the Cardinals can snap that skid, they will knot the series at 8–8.

    I think Louisville will do it.
  • Tennessee at #19 Mississippi State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: In the last 25 years, these teams have played 10 times — and Tennessee has won nine of those games.

    But Mississippi State's last victory over Tennessee — in 1994 — came in Starkville, where today's game will be played.

    Perhaps that is a good omen. Some of the numbers from this season sure aren't. For example, Tennessee has a higher–ranked offense (#17 in the nation compared to #64), behind QB Tyler Bray and halfback Rajion Neal. The 3–2 Volunteers have scored 197 points. The Bulldogs do have QB Tyler Russell but little else.

    However, in the proud tradition of SEC champions, Mississippi State is 25th in defense (and trails four conference rivals in that category) whereas Tennessee languishes in 87th place.

    It can be argued that Tennessee has faced tougher competition than Mississippi State, but that will change. The Bulldogs will face Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU in succession in late October–early November.

    At that point, we will find out just what kind of defense the Bulldogs have. For now, I think it will be enough to win for the sixth time this season.

    I'll go with Mississippi State.
  • Syracuse at #20 Rutgers, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East Network: This series predates America's entry into World War I and has been played annually since 1980.

    Syracuse has won more than 70% of the games that have been played between the two schools, but most of those games were played when Syracuse had a much better program than Syracuse.

    But times have changed. Since 2005, Rutgers has won five of seven meetings. Even better for Rutgers is the fact that the Scarlet Knights have been more successful at home than on the road against Syracuse.

    Of course, it's all relative. Rutgers has won nearly 30% of its home games against Syracuse and about 29% of the road games (Syracuse won two encounters played in New York during World War I).

    Rutgers has been enjoying much more success on the gridiron since 2005 than it did in the preceding years — and, off to a 5–0 start, the Scarlet Knights may well be on their way to their best season ever. If they can get five more wins, they will be in double–digit victory territory for only the third time in school history.

    Syracuse has the edge in offense, ranked #37 compared to Rutgers' #89. But that seems like a contradiction. Rutgers has a higher–rated passer (Gary Nova) than Syracuse (Ryan Nassib). And Rutgers' halfback (Jawan Jamison) is 13th in the country.

    Rutgers has been winning mostly on the strength of its 15th–ranked defense (Syracuse is ranked #40). And, if you have been reading me for awhile, you know that I tend to favor a good defense.

    Accordingly, I will take Rutgers — by about 10 points.
  • Fordham at #21 Cincinnati, 1 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: I seldom gamble on anything, but I would be willing to bet that this is the first time in a long time — if ever — that a Fordham game has been televised.

    Even if it is online.

    It&apsos;s a first, as far as I can see. Certainly, it appears to be the first time these teams have faced each other in my lifetime.

    And it is a formidable challenge for Fordham. Cincinnati has the 28th–ranked offense in the land. QB Munchie Legaux has completed only 55% of his passes, but he's thrown three times as many touchdowns as interceptions, and halfback George Winn is contributing more than 100 yards per game on the ground.

    Cincinnati's defense has been good but not spectacular, holding the 40th ranking nationally.

    But, really, how good does it have to be to top Fordham? I think Cincinnati will win easily.
  • #22 Texas A&M at #23 Louisiana Tech, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: In the overall rankings, A&M is one slot ahead of Louisiana Tech.

    But in total offense, Tech is one spot ahead of A&M. They are 11th and 12th, respectively. Tech has scored more than 50 points against all but one of its opponents so far.

    The undefeated Bulldogs have been playing the likes of Houston and Rice, though, and their closest contest was their game with Virginia. The Aggies have played Florida and Arkansas.

    The Aggies bring a higher—ranked defense (#45) into the game than Tech (#119) so I'm inclined to give the advantage to Texas A&M.
  • Fresno State at #24 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBCSN: This hassn't been an extensive (or regular) series — the teams will be meeting for the 15th time since 1977 — but Boise State has dominated, especially at home.

    In fact, Fresno State won the first time the Bulldogs traveled to Boise, but the Broncos have won the last five in a row.

    In the past, it has seemed that teams tended to win in the Mountain West Conference by scoring — a lot. If that still holds true, the edge should belong to Fresno State, currently ranked #20 and led by QB Derek Carr and halfback Robbie Rouse (Boise State is ranked 85th, even though QB Joe Southwick has completed nearly 65% of his passes).

    Both teams are pretty good on defense. Boise has a slim edge in that category; the Broncos are 27th in the nation, the Bulldogs are 31st.
    The 4–1 Broncos have bounced back with four straight wins since losing to Michigan State in their opener. Of their five opponents, only New Mexico has scored more than 17 points on the Broncos.

    The 4–2 Bulldogs surrendered 42 points in their loss to second–ranked Oregon and gave up 40 points in their win over San Diego State., but three of their foes have been held to two touchdowns or less.

    I'm tempted to take Fresno State, but — perhaps based only on reputation — I'm taking the home team, Boise State.
  • Illinois at #25 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These Big Ten rivals don't always play each other — but, when they do, Michigan usually wins.

    They've played 93 times since 1898, and Michigan has won about three–fourths of the time, whether the games has been played in Champaign or Ann Arbor.

    And, frequently (but not always), Illinois wins when it faces a Michigan team that has been having an off year.

    This Michigan team isn't really having an off year. Sure, the Wolverines are 3–2, but those losses have been to #1 Alabama and #7 Notre Dame. The Illini, meanwhile, are staggering along at 2–4.

    In spite of the presence of Denard Robinson in the lineup, Michigan is ranked #73 in offense, but that looks positively gaudy compared to Illinois' #101 ranking.

    On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan is currently ranked #19. Illinois isn't bad at #37, but everything really points to a (low scoring) Michigan victory.
Last week: 11–7

Season: 97–23

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Throw Back the Throwback Uniforms

The throwback uniforms worn by the Wisconsin and Nebraska
football teams last Saturday night were appallingly ugly.


I sort of liked the concept of the throwback jerseys when the NFL introduced them for the league's 75th season.

But enough is enough.

I found the uniforms worn by the Wisconsin and Nebraska football teams last Saturday to be so bad that I couldn't watch the whole game — which was a shame because it had such an exciting second half.

I still don't mind the throwback unis — but some should remain buried in the past.

Which raises an interesting point.

Many of these so–called "throwback" uniforms were never actually worn by teams in the past. They are, in fact, "alternate" uniforms, many of which have the appearance of a uniform that might have been worn in the 1930s or 1940s.

But they were specially designed long after those decades ended.

For some teams, these alternate uniforms have been seen as some kind of harbingers of success. But not for the two teams who played in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday night.

Idle: #1 Alabama, #19 Louisville

Thursday
  • #13 USC at Utah, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: USC has never played at Utah before.

    Before they were conference rivals, USC won five home contests against Utah, and Utah beat USC in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl.

    Is home field an advantage for the Utes? Well, it wasn't so much last year (3–3), their first in the Pac–12, but they were 5–1 at home the year before (with their only loss being to undefeated TCU) and 22–3 in the previous five seasons.

    I don't think that will help them this time. I pick USC.
Saturday
  • #23 Washington at #2 Oregon, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series has done an about–face in recent years.

    All time, Washington holds the edge both at home and on the road (51–37–4), but Oregon has won the last eight meetings. I think it will be nine after Saturday's game, although Washington will put up a fight, I'm sure. I predict an Oregon victory.
  • #3 Florida State at North Carolina State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: At the moment, undefeated Florida State has a Top 10 offense (behind quarterback E.J. Manuel) and a Top 10 defense.

    North Carolina State, on the other hand, has an offense and a defense that are serviceable — but do not seem capable of going the distance with someone like Florida State.

    Even at home, where NCSU is 5–9 against FSU — although the Wolfpack beat the Seminoles the last time they met there.

    I think Florida State will make it two in a row.
  • #4 LSU at #10 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Of all the games on this week's schedule, this one may be the most intriguing.

    I don't know how many schools can claim to have winning records against LSU both at home and away, but the Florida Gators can.

    They've been even more successful at home (14–11–3) than in Baton Rouge (16–14), and the Gators are the host team this year. They will be trying to avenge their loss to LSU on their home field two years ago.

    It may be regarded as a mild upset, but I'll take Florida to win this one.
  • #5 Georgia at #6 South Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools were familiar foes long before they became conference rivals in 1992.

    This will be the 62nd time they have met, and Georgia has won nearly three–quarters of their contests — but South Carolina has won three of the last five.

    There's plenty of star power in this one. Georgia boasts the third–rated passer in the land (Aaron Murray); South Carolina counters with the 10th–rated QB (Connor Shaw).

    The SEC isn't as much of a rushing league as it once was, but Georgia's top running back (Todd Gurley) ranks in the top 20, and South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore is rated 48th.

    I'kk give a slight edge to Georgia.
  • Kansas at #7 Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: This will be the 110th edition of the Sunflower Showdown, the in–state series between Kansas and Kansas State.

    Historically, Kansas enjoys a huge margin in the series, 65–39–5, but Kansas State is 15–4 since 1993 — and Kansas has been victorious at Kansas State only once since 1991.

    It seems to me that KSU is the superior team so I have to pick Kansas State to prevail.
  • #8 West Virginia at #11 Texas, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It's been more than half a century since these schools faced each other on the football field.

    Fifty–six years ago Saturday, West Virginia left Austin with a 7–6 victory. On Saturday, the Mountaineers return, and I expect a lot more points to be scored this time. West Virginia has the third–rated offense in the nation, and Texas is #23 nationally in offense.

    West Virginia has the nation's top–rated quarterback in Geno Smith, and Texas has the second–rated quarterback (David Ash). Quite a matchup. And neither defense appears prepared for the aerial onslaught it is likely to face.

    This may be regarded as something of an upset as well, but I'm going to go with West Virginia. I think the Longhorns may be looking ahead to their game with Oklahoma, but after West Virginia's shootout with Baylor last week, you overlook the Mountaineers at your peril.
  • Miami (Fla.) at #9 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: The late 1980s probably represent the high point in this series. In fact, the teams have only met once since 1990 — in the 2010 Sun Bowl.

    But back in the late 1980s, a match between these two schools meant the balance of power in college football was at stake.

    Today, Notre Dame has a Top 20 defense whereas Miami isn't even in the Top 100. But Miami's 35th–ranked offense may challenge the Irish.

    Not enough, though. I predict Notre Dame will win the game.
  • #21 Nebraska at #12 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Before Nebraska joined the Big Ten, the Buckeyes and the Cornhuskers hadn't faced each other since the Eisenhower administration.

    The teams have only faced each other three times in all, but the home team has always won, which may be good news for Ohio State.

    Not so fast, my friend.

    If the game is decided on the ground, Nebraska has the eighth–ranked runner in Ameer Abdullah. If it is won through the air, the advantage may belong to Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez — although Ohio State's Braxton Miller may have something to say about it.

    Nebraska also enters the game with a higher–ranked defense than Ohio State, which makes me think Nebraska will win the game.
  • Washington State at #14 Oregon State, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: Historically, Washington State has the edge in this series.

    But Oregon State seldom enters this contest with a national ranking so we're kind of in uncharted territory here.

    Since 1999, Oregon State has won about two–thirds of the time. And the numbers suggest that the Beavers will win again (even though Washington State's last two wins over Oregon State have come at Corvallis).

    Oregon State's quarterback, Sean Mannion, is currently ranked 31st in the country, thanks largely to Brandin Cooks and Markus Wheaton, the fifth– and sixth–most productive receivers (respectively) in the nation.

    I have to go with Oregon State in this one.
  • Georgia Tech at #15 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Georgia Tech has been something of a thorn in Clemson's side,

    Georgia Tech has won more than two–thirds of its games with Clemson, including the 2009 ACC championship game.

    But Clemson won the last time it hosted Georgia Tech. And Clemson has the 16th–ranked offense in the land (Georgia Tech's, ranked 26th in the nation, isn't exactly chopped liver). So far, Tajh Boyd has completed nearly 70% of his passes, and Andre Ellington is contributing more than 100 yards per game on the ground.

    Just too many weapons in the Tigers' arsenal. I pick Clemson to win the game.
  • Iowa State at #16 TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: TCU is 3–0 all time against Iowa State.

    But this will be their first meeting as conference rivals, and it will be played in Fort Worth, where TCU beat Iowa State for the first time in 1995.

    Neither team has been very impressive on offense, but TCU does have the seventh–best defense in the country. Iowa State, however, counters with the 18th–best defense, which suggests this will be a defensive struggle.

    But I think TCU will win that struggle.
  • #17 Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It seems to me that Texas Tech ought to be ranked in the Top 25.

    And the Red Raiders have an opportunity, starting on Saturday, to make their case for being included in the rankings. They've beaten some mostly unimpressive opposition en route to a 4–0 start, but the schedule now presents them with five consecutive games against teams that are currently in the Top 25 (Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State and Texas).

    A sweep would certainly be a statement that could not be ignored, but, as the old saying goes, the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

    Saturday's game against the Sooners will be a good test for the nation's top–ranked defense. Oklahoma's offense is ranked 25th in the country.

    Oklahoma also has the 12th–ranked defense, but Texas Tech is ranked eighth in offense.

    Of course, as I say, Tech has compiled its record against mostly mediocre competition. Oklahoma's schedule hasn't been much more impressive — except for the Sooners' lost to Kansas State a couple of weeks ago.

    But the Red Raiders will have the home crowd on their side — and Tech has been more successful in Lubbock than in Norman. In fact, the Red Raiders have won the last three meetings at home.

    This will probably be seen as an upset, but I pick Texas Tech.
  • Arizona at #18 Stanford, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: As they head into their 28th meeting, these teams are almost even. Arizona holds a one–game edge, 14–13.

    But, historically speaking, being the home team may not necessarily help Stanford. Arizona has compiled a 7–5 record at Stanford. Stanford has been more successful at Arizona, where the series is tied, 7–7.

    And Arizona has the nation's 10th–best offense, largely thanks to the running of Ka'Deem Carey. That should be a considerable challenge for Stanford's 24th–ranked defense.

    Arizona's defense, on the other hand, is one of the nation's worst, ranked 94th — and, if Andrew Luck was still at the helm of the offense, I would be inclined to expect Stanford to torch Arizona. But, without Luck, Stanford's offense is rated 105th.

    Apparently, the marquee matchup will occur whenever Arizona has the ball.

    I pick visiting Arizona.
  • #20 Mississippi State at Kentucky, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Mississippi State has beaten Kentucky three straight times, but Kentucky still holds a one–game edge in the all–time series, 20–19.

    And Kentucky is 13–7 at home against the Bulldogs. Consequently, history appears to favor Kentucky.

    But all eyes will be on Mississippi State quarterback Tyler Russell, who has completed only 55% of his passes but has thrown only one interception so far. Kentucky's 62nd–ranked defense will be hard pressed to stop him.

    Even at home. I predict a Mississippi State win.
  • Connecticut at #22 Rutgers, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Rutgers holds a one–game advantage in this series, but UConn has been the winner of the last three meetings at Rutgers.

    So Connecticut clearly will have at least a mental edge.

    Both offenses have been anemic whereas both defenses are highly regarded. UConn's defense is ranked sixth in the nation.

    For defensive–minded fans, this should be highly entertaining. And I will pick Connecticut to prevail.
  • #24 Northwestern at Penn State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: For the first time ever, Northwestern will play Penn State without Joe Paterno prowling the sidelines.

    And JoePa was 6–1 at home against Northwestern. This will be Bill O'Brien's first game against the Wildcats. How will he do?

    Well, whatever one thinks of how Paterno dealt with the Sandusky situation, JoePa set the bar pretty high for on–the–field achievements. The sanctions that were handed down stripped JoePa of many of his wins, but it will be long time, if ever, before someone matches his record at Penn State.

    I don't if O'Brien will equal his predecessor. But I do think Penn State will win this game.
  • #25 UCLA at California, 9 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: UCLA has won more than 60% of the more than 80 ganes that have been played between these two schools, and it doesn't matter where they play. UCLA has the edge in both places.

    UCLA will bring the nation's fourth–ranked offense, anchored by running back Johnathan Franklin (who is contributing more than 150 rushing yards per game) and QB Brett Hundley.

    I think the Bruins have too many weapons, and I pick UCLA to win.
Last week: 12–4

Season: 86–16

Thursday, September 27, 2012

The Battle for the Iron Skillet


TCU's student body president presents the first
Iron Skillet to his SMU counterpart in 1946.


One of the great things about college football is the rivalries that have developed over the years.

Some are always important to the national rankings, like OU–Texas and Ohio State–Michigan. Others are only important to the schools and their alums.

But they are traditions that must be experienced. They bring excitement to sleepy campuses and energy to fading programs — if only for one week.

In my undergraduate days at Arkansas, there was nothing like Arkansas–Texas week, no matter what the teams' records were.

By this point in the season, several rivalries have been renewed, and many, many more will be played out in the weeks to come.

One such rivalry is right here in the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex.

TCU and SMU have been playing each other since 1915 — just about every year, too. On Saturday, they will meet for the 91st time, but the first 27 were not known as the "Battle for the Iron Skillet." That tradition apparently started with the game that was played on Nov. 30, 1946.

All time, TCU holds a slight edge over SMU, 44–39–7, but the advantage has been more pronounced since SMU came off the NCAA–imposed death penalty in 1989. The Horned Frogs are 16–6 against the Mustangs since that time.

I'm not entirely sure about the origin of the rivalry's name. Legend has it that an SMU fan was frying frog legs before a game in the 1950s — in what I presume was a precursor to modern tailgate parties. A TCU fan took exception and said the winner of the game should get the skillet and frog legs.

However, as the above photo and this article from The TCU Magazine show, the skillet was presented to the winner starting in the 1940s.

Well, whenever the tradition began, it is still a fairly heated rivalry. There are many TCU and SMU graduates living in both Dallas and Fort Worth, and the short distance between the two cities — approximately 35 miles — makes the game a hot topic of conversation locally. It has been a significant point of pride even on those occasions when neither team was very good.

Idle: #7 Kansas State, #10 Notre Dame, #11 Florida, #13 Southern Cal, #16 Oklahoma, #21 Mississippi State, #23 Rutgers

Today
  • #8 Stanford at Washington, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Woodrow Wilson was in his final year as president when these teams met for the first time in 1920.

    Washington hold an overall edge in the series, 40–37–4, but Stanford has won six of the last seven meetings. At home, Washington is 20–18–3 against Stanford, but the Huskies haven't beaten Stanford there in nearly a decade.

    I don't they will win this one, either. I pick Stanford.
Saturday
  • Ole Miss at #1 Alabama, 8:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These old rivals will be meeting for the 56th time, but the rivalry factor may not mean much.

    'Bama has dominated the series, especially at home, where the Crimson Tide has lost to the Rebels only once (in 1988) — but it hasn't been much better at Ole Miss, where Alabama's record is 14–6–1.

    The Rebels may find themselves longing for the friendly confines of Vaught–Hemingway Stadium, but the truth is that, in the last few years, they have been more competitive at Alabama's Bryant–Denny Stadium.

    Do I think the Rebels will be competitive in this one? No. Alabama will roll.
  • #2 Oregon at Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Oregon was more impressive last week than LSU, and, consequently, the Ducks leaped past the Tigers in the rankings.

    History says they will probably leap past Washington State on Saturday, too, but the series record is reasonably close. Oregon's record against WSU is 44–33–6, and they have winning records at home and on the road.

    I guess most college football fans know how successful Oregon was last year. Washington State has been the reverse — with only one winning season in the last nine years.

    If that's going to change this season, it will have to do so without the benefit of a victory on this Saturday. I pick Oregon.
  • Towson at #3 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is like taking candy from a baby.

    Sure, I know, LSU was uninspiring in its win over Auburn. And the Tigers may give a lackluster performance this weekend.

    But, hey, come on. LSU has to win this game.
  • #4 Florida State at South Florida, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: South Florida has a program that is on the rise.

    And the crowd at South Florida might cause some problems for the Seminoles.

    But, really, with the fourth–ranked offense, this one should be a fairly easy win for Florida State.
  • Tennessee at #5 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This isn't the oldest series in the SEC, but it is bound to be one of the most competitive.

    Tennessee has the edge at both sites — with identical 10–9–1 marks.

    Georgia actually has won the last two meetings, but Tennessee was 4–2 in the six previous games.

    If the Bulldogs were to win for the third straight time, it wouldn't be unprecedented. In fact, winning streaks have played a prominent role in the series.

    Georgia won four straight from 2000 to 2003 (Tennessee won the nine games prior to that). And Georgia won four straight before that — in 1973, 1980, 1981 and 1988.

    I expect this to be an entertaining game, but I think Georgia is in a better position to go the distance.
  • #6 South Carolina at Kentucky, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: South Carolina is 11–1 against Kentucky since the 2000 season — but that single loss came the last time the teams played in the Bluegrass State.

    On that occasion, the Wildcats managed a 31–28 victory over the Gamecocks.

    The personnel is different, though, and I just can't see Kentucky managing to win this one. I choose South Carolina.
  • #25 Baylor at #9 West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: This will be the first time these teams have met, and the conditions could hardly be better, with both teams ranked in the Top 25.

    Neither defense has been particularly impressive so I expect something of a shootout. And, if that is the case, I have to pick Baylor and its sixth–ranked offense — although West Virginia is 14th in offense and could be quite dangerous if Baylor stumbles.
  • #12 Texas at Oklahoma State, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: OSU has only beaten Texas four times in their previous 26 meetings, but the Cowboys have won the last two, both in Austin.

    The Longhorns are 6–1 in Stillwater, but I'm not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing. Most folks know how good OSU's offense has been in recent years. Well, many of the Cowboys' players have gone on to the NFL, but OSU's offense is currently ranked #1 in the nation.

    It's almost as if they haven't skipped a beat in Stillwater.

    Texas' defense is 34th in the nation — which, statistically, may not mean much after only a few games. At the moment, that is only marginally better than OSU's defense, which only has to deal with the nation's 16th&ndsh;ranked offense.

    I pick Oklahoma State in an upset.
  • #14 Ohio State at #20 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Michigan State snapped a seven–game losing streak against Ohio State last year.

    If the Spartans beat the Buckeyes on Saturday, they will have accomplished something — beating Ohio State at home — they haven't accomplished since 1999.

    It would also be the first time Michigan State has won two consecutive games against Ohio State since the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

    The outcome may depend on Michigan State's defense, which is ranked sixth in the nation and seems capable of handling Ohio State's 52nd–ranked offense.

    The Spartans' offense is even worse, ranked 65th, but it is likely to have an easier time with the Buckeyes' defense, which is 71st.

    I'll take Michigan State at home.
  • #15 TCU at SMU, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: As I mentioned earlier, TCU is 16–6 against SMU since the Mustangs came off the death penalty.

    TCU has been especially successful in games played in Dallas since the dawn of the 21st century. The Frogs are 5–1 in those games.

    TCU's strongest point is its defense, which is ninth in the country. It should have little trouble with the #79 offense. When TCU has the ball, though, it will have quarterback Casey Pachall, currently the nation's leading passer, peppering the SMU defense, which is currently the worst in the land.

    I pick TCU.
  • #17 Clemson at Boston College, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Historically, the home team has a slight edge in this series.

    And, statistically, Boston College does have the advantage on defense. But neither team has been impressive on that side of the ball. So the question comes down to offense, and Clemson has a decisive edge in that category.

    I'll take Clemson.
  • #18 Oregon State at Arizona, 9 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: Oregon State has won five of the last six in this series, and the Beavers haven't lost at Arizona since 1997.

    Furthermore, Oregon State has been much more successful on both sides of the ball. I take Oregon State.
  • #19 Louisville at Southern Miss, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Louisville has been much better — on both sides of the ball — than Southern Miss.

    Historically, Southern Miss holds the edge, but Louisville has won the last five meetings.

    Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has completed nearly three–fourths of his passes so far. He might improve that figure against Southern Miss' weak defense.

    I'll take Louisville.
  • Wisconsin at #22 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When these two schools met as conference rivals last year, it was their first meeting in nearly four decades.

    They were never regular opponents, just occasional ones, but, when Nebraska beat Wisconsin last year, it knotted up the all–time series at 3–3.

    Who will break the tie?

    Well, Wisconsin has a better defense, which could come in handy against the ninth–ranked offense. Cornhusker QB Taylor Martinez has thrown only one interception so far and figures to test the Badgers.

    I pick Nebraska.
  • #24 Boise State at New Mexico: Boise State is 3–0 against New Mexico all time and will be making only its second appearance in Albuquerque.

    Boise's last trip there — in 2000 — resulted in a 31–14 triumph.

    So far, neither team has been impressive on offense so I anticipate a defensive struggle. And that should favor Boise State, with its 18th–ranked defense.

    I choose Boise State.
Last week: 16–3

Season: 74–12

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The Blown Call

This image, from Monday night's Hail Mary completion, with
one official signaling a score and the other a turnover, is
being seen as symbolic of the replacement referees' performance.


It's never been my style to criticize the officials at sporting events, even when they made questionable calls that went against my team.

Bad calls come with the territory — and when all is said and done, it tends to come out equal. Most of us have as many dubious calls that favor us as ones that go against us.

I have watched the replacement referees trying to do a tough job under trying circumstances, and I have sympathized with teams that were hurt by clearly blown calls.

But I have remained silent — partly because I know that things usually balance out in the end but mostly because my father told me when I was young that a single play or call seldom decides the outcome of a game. I believed it.

I guess I still believe that — even though a blown call at the end of the Monday Night Football game obviously did decide the outcome of that game, and it is the clearest evidence yet that the NFL and the officials need to settle their labor dispute and get the experienced referees back on the field.

This is similar to the weeks a quarter of a century ago when the NFL's players were on strike, and team owners chose to field replacement teams manned by all sorts of frustrated athletes who had been forced to do something else for a living rather than cancel games.

To be sure, a handful of those guys exceeded expectations and went on to play in the real NFL for awhile after the strike ended, but most of them went back to whatever they had been doing before — selling lawn furniture or insurance or whatever.

And the same fate may await the replacement refs today. Some of them have performed well and would deserve a chance to prove they belong out there, but the vast majority have not. Monday night's game was simply the most blatant example.

Sportswriter Joe Posnanski says it was "a farce."

In The Sporting News, David Steele argues that the case against NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has been building for months. Steele thinks Goodell should step down if he can't (or won't) satisfactorily resolve the situation.

Even the candidates for president are weighing in.

And normally mild–mannered Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers apologized to fans for the poor performance of the replacement refs.

"Some stuff just needs to be said," Rodgers said, observing that the NFL won't. "The games are getting out of control."

Only one thing will bring the games back under control — a resolution of the labor dispute.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

It's All Over Now



It's been a tough year at my alma mater.

And hopes had been so high when the year began, too.

The final whistle in Arkansas' Cotton Bowl victory over Kansas State had barely sounded before the talk began that Arkansas would compete for a national title in 2012.

And that talk continued, even after coach Bobby Petrino was involved in a motorcycle accident, and it was revealed that he had been riding around with a young woman who was half his age (and not his wife).

The Razorbacks were loaded, they said. They were ready to compete with Alabama and LSU for the SEC's Western Division title. It didn't matter who was coaching them.

Good thing, too, because Petrino was fired in April. That's a little late for a new coach to recruit players for the coming season.

But, after a less–than–impressive opening win against Jacksonville State, Arkansas lost a stunner to Louisiana–Monroe in overtime, was blown to bits by top–ranked Alabama and then was defeated by unbeaten Rutgers last night.

Since Arkansas joined the SEC, it hasn't been unusual for the Razorbacks to get off to a 1–3 start. That may be hard for most college football fans to believe, given Arkansas' recent success.

The Razorbacks last began a season 1–3 in 2005. Like this year, one of those losses came to a very good Alabama team, and another came in a game with Southern Cal, which wound up playing Texas for the national title in the Rose Bowl.

But, unlike this season, Arkansas beat Louisiana–Monroe. The Hogs finished 4–7 that year.

In 1996, Arkansas began the season with a 1–3 mark. Florida and Alabama, both en route to big seasons, contributed to Arkansas' early defeats, as did a modest SMU team.

Again, though, Arkansas beat Louisiana–Monroe and finished the season 4–7.

The Hogs also started the 1994 season with a 1–3 mark. They never beat a team that would end the season with a winning record, and, once again, Arkansas was 4–7.

In 1992, Arkansas' first year of SEC play, the Hogs started 1–3. The signs were there from the start. Under Jack Crowe as coach, Arkansas lost to the Citadel on Labor Day weekend, and Crowe was fired the following day.

Although they did manage to beat a pretty good Tennessee team, the Hogs finished 3–7–1 that season.

Most of the time, Arkansas hasn't overcome a 1–3 start. But once, though, Arkansas started a season 1–3 and rallied to post a winning record and earn a bowl bid.

In 2001, Arkansas opened with a 1–3 record, and all three losses were to conference rivals, but the Hogs bounced back and finished the season 7–4 before losing to Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.

When I was growing up in Arkansas — and the Hogs were competing in the now defunct Southwest Conference — 1–3 starts just never happened. Never.

Not at Arkansas. Maybe at Baylor. Or TCU. Or Rice. But never at Arkansas.

After the first month of the season, the Razorbacks were always still in the bowl conversation. Things might get worse as the season went on, or things might get better. But you could never count them out after just four games.

This year, though, I think you can.

I hope I'm wrong. But I had my doubts about the defense as I watched the Jacksonville State game, and a shaky defense will have trouble against just about everyone in the SEC.

I don't know if John L. Smith, the guy who was picked to replace Petrino, will still be coach in the off–season. But whoever the coach is has to make defense his top priority.

Petrino left the Hogs well supplied with offensive weapons, but the defensive cupboard is a bit bare and can't be depended upon when those offensive weapons misfire.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Irish Take On Wolverines Saturday



If you are a college football fan, there are many games on this weekend's schedule that should attract your attention.

But, of all the appealing contests, I think the one that intrigues me the most is Michigan and Notre Dame. It's got it all — tradition, devoted fans and, this year, both teams are ranked in the Top 25. When was the last time that happened?

It will also be intriguing to observe the atmosphere in South Bend. Notre Dame has been openly trying to make its home field advantage more of an advantage.

Idle: #9 Stanford, #12 Texas

Today
  • Brigham Young at #24 Boise State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams played each other in 2003 and 2004. Boise State won both contests — by an average of about 20 points.

    I pick Boise State.
Saturday
  • Florida Atlantic at #1 Alabama: These two schools have never met, but the odds against a Florida Atlantic victory must be somewhere in the millions or billions.

    For awhile after Bear Bryant retired, Alabama ceased to be a factor in the national championship conversation, but those days are long gone. Alabama should win this one.
  • #2 LSU at Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series dates back to 1902, and Saturday's game will be the 45th meeting.

    Both teams have the advantage at home. This year's game is being played at Auburn, where the home team is 14–10. In fact, Auburn has won five of the last six games it has played against LSU at home.

    One of those wins came two years ago when Cam Newton was Auburn's quarterback. He has moved on to the NFL, and Auburn has been struggling ever since.

    LSU, meanwhile, has consistently been ranked in the nation's Top 5, and, once again, college football fans have begun to anticipate LSU's annual showdown with Alabama.

    Such talk will continue after this weekend. I expect LSU to win the game — even though this week's campus bomb scare disrupted practice in Baton Rouge.
  • #22 Arizona at #3 Oregon, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Arizona always struggles against Oregon — especially when the teams play at Oregon.

    Oregon is 12–5 at home against Arizona; in fact, Oregon has won eight of its last nine home games against Arizona.

    But this year might be different. Both teams are in the Top 10 nationally in total offense (Arizona is fourth, Oregon is seventh), and neither team has been particularly impressive on defense.

    Do I think Arizona can win? Not really, but I think the Wildcats can make it interesting. Bottom line: Oregon will win the game.
  • #10 Clemson at #4 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have been playing off and on since 1970, annually (as conference rivals) since 1992, and Florida State has dominated the series.

    Actually, Florida State won 14 of the first 16 times the teams met, but Clemson has won six of the last nine. Unfortunately, only one of those wins came at Florida State — a 27–20 decision in 2006.

    There's a lot for college football fans to like in this game. Both teams are in the Top 25 in total offense, but Florida State has a decisive edge in total defense; the Seminoles havethe top–ranked defense in the nation while the Tigers' defense is ranked 56th.

    Advantage: Florida State.
  • Vanderbilt at #5 Georgia, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is one of the oldest series in the South.

    These teams first played in 1902. They have played 68 times in all, and Vandy has won only 15. In fact, Georgia has only lost to Vanderbilt twice in their last 20 encounters — but the good news for Vandy fans is that the Commodores' two wins in the last two decades came at Georgia, where they will be playing Saturday night.

    Hey, you gotta take encouragement where you find it, but Vandy has more than that.

    The Commodore defense is ranked 11th. That should make for some interesting moments when Georgia's 20th–ranked offense is on the field.

    I pick Georgia, but it just might be a lot closer than most people think.
  • #15 Kansas State at #6 Oklahoma, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams will be meeting for the 92nd time when they kick off this Saturday.

    K–State has pulled off some surprising wins over the Sooners, but the Wildcats have lost eight of the last nine meetings, and they have really struggled in Norman, where OU holds a 35–6–3 advantage.

    The Sooners also have the #10 defense and #11 offense, both considerably better rankings than KSU has. That, with the home field, should be enough for Oklahoma to win.
  • Missouri at #7 South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: These teams have played twice before, but never during the regular season.

    Missouri beat South Carolina in the 1979 Hall of Fame Classic and the 2005 Independence Bowl.

    On Saturday, they will meet for the first time as conference opponents, and TV cameras will be on hand.

    If you're familiar with the SEC, it should come as no surprise to you that four of the Top 20 defenses are in the SEC, and one of them will be playing in this game. But you may be surprised to know that SEC newcomer Missouri, not South Carolina, is ranked in the Top 20 in total defense.

    Neither school is currently ranked in the Top 20 in total offense. South Carolina is in the Top 50, and Missouri is in the Top 80.

    Missouri will have the edge if it is a defensive game — and I'm kind of inclined to think it will be. South Carolina struggled against Vanderbilt, then beat East Carolina and Alabama–Birmingham. With a schedule like that, shouldn't the Gamecocks be higher than 48th in total offense?

    I pick Missouri.
  • Maryland at #8 West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: This will be the 49th encounter in this series, and the record is pretty tight.

    West Virginia holds a slight advantage, 25–21–2. The Mountaineers also have won the last three times the teams have played in West Virginia.

    The most interesting moments figure to be when West Virginia's third–ranked offense takes on Maryland's eighth–ranked defense. Maryland has one of the worst offenses in the nation, and West Virginia has one of the worst defenses.

    I'll take West Virginia.
  • #18 Michigan at #11 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These schools have been playing each other — sporadically — since 1898, and the home team usually has the edge.

    At South Bend, Ind., Notre Dame is 8–6–1 against Michigan and enjoys a three–game winning streak there over the Wolverines.

    Wherever the game is played, the final score is frequently close, often within a single score.

    And this year's game figures to be a battle between Michigan's offense and Notre Dame's defense. In a low–scoring decision, I pick Notre Dame.
  • California at #13 USC, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Southern Cal really tumbled in the polls after the Trojans' loss to Stanford last week.

    A game with California might be just the thing to lift their spirits. These teams have played each other 97 times, and Southern Cal has won 63 — including 10 of the last 11.

    California has been more impressive on offense, and Southern Cal has been more impressive on defense. I've always been a believer in the value of a strong defense so I'll give USC the edge in this one.
  • Kentucky at #14 Florida, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Florida has ruled this series, especially at home, where the Gators are 27–7 against the Wildcats.

    What's more, Florida hasn't lost to Kentucky since 1986, and the Gators haven't lost at home to Kentucky since 1979.

    Recent history doesn't suggest that Kentucky is ready for the prime time of Gainesville. Florida has been held under 38 points only twice in the last 18 meetings, and Kentucky has managed to exceed 30 points only four times.

    I fully expect Florida to win.
  • Alabama–Birmingham at #16 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I'm really astonished that this game is being televised.

    I am confident that Ohio State will win — and probably by a wide margin.
  • Virginia at #17 TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This has been a rather modest series. There have been only two meetings — in Shreveport, La., for the 1994 Independence Bowl and at Virginia in 2009.

    Virginia won the Independence Bowl. TCU won the rematch in 2009. This will be the first time the teams have played in Fort Worth.

    Statistically, TCU enjoys huge advantages on offense and defense. That may not mean much at this point in the season, but it confirms my gut feelilng, which is that TCU should win the game.
  • Oregon State at #19 UCLA, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Since these teams first met in 1930, UCLA has dominated the series.

    The Bruins have won 41 of 60 contests, and, lest you think most of those wins were compiled in the early years of the series, UCLA has won seven of the last nine meetings.

    UCLA should have the advantage in this game.
  • Florida International at #20 Louisville: I can't justify spending much time on this one.

    Louisville should win handily.
  • Eastern Michigan at #21 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The Spartans are 5–0 against Eastern Michigan, and the score is usually lopsided.

    Michigan State has never scored fewer than 42 points, and Eastern Michigan has never scored more than 20. And neither extreme was achieved on the same occasion.

    I don't need any more convincing. I pick Michigan State.
  • South Alabama at #23 Mississippi State: I know it is still fairly early in the season, but Mississippi State has got to be feeling like Rodney Dangerfield. The Bulldogs don't get no respect.

    They finally crack the Top 25, and no one is televising Saturday's game, not even on ESPN3.com, which is kind of like the Mikey of sports broadcasting in reverse.

    They'll televise anything.

    Sure, it's against South Alabama, and that really does qualify as a Who cares? kind of foe, but we live in a different age than the one in which I grew up. In those days, teams were limited in the number of televised appearances they could make during the regular season.

    But there are so many TV options out there today that just about every team in the rankings (and a bunch of teams that are not ranked) can be on TV on a given Saturday.

    You can debate whether Mississippi State deserves to be ranked. The Bulldogs are 3–0 for the first time since 1999, and that record includes a fairly decisive win over Auburn. Of course, it also includes wins over Jackson State and Troy.

    But I think they will make some noise this weekend. After that, they have a bye week, and then we'll see if anyone wants to televise their game with Kentucky on Oct. 6 or Tennessee the week after that.

    I pick Mississippi State.
  • Idaho State at #25 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Based purely on reputation, Nebraska should have no problems in this game.

    In fact, if Idaho State wins at Nebraska, it would almost certainly qualify as one of the major upsets of this year, if not all time.

    I'll go with Nebraska.
Last week: 18–3

Season: 58–9