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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

The Return of the Red River Rivalry

For a long time, it was known as the "Red River Shootout."

But then I guess someone objected to the use of the word shootout. I suppose it evoked imagery that was too violent.

Too violent for football? That is kind of a strange concept, isn't it?

Well, anyway, for the last five or six years, it has been known as the "Red River Rivalry."

I guess that minor name change doesn't really mean anything. I mean, I've lived in Oklahoma and I live in Texas, and I know one thing about the series between OU and UT — the fans of the respective schools will hate each other no matter what their annual clash in the Cotton Bowl is called.

A rose by any other name ...

But it just wouldn't be the same if the game wasn't played in Dallas. Oklahoma and Texas have been playing in Dallas since Herbert Hoover was president. It's a tradition. The actual Cotton Bowl game is no longer played in the Cotton Bowl stadium, but the OU–Texas game is and, for some folks, that's all that matters.

Nevertheless, the schools apparently are talking about moving the game when the current contract expires in a few years.

Idle: #4 Wisconsin

Thursday

California at #9 Oregon, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Oregon generally beats California — but not always and not always easily, either.

Last year, for example, when Oregon went unbeaten during the regular season and played Auburn for the national title, Cal barely lost to Oregon, 15–13, It was, by far, Oregon's worst scoring performance of the year.

I don't really expect that this time. Last year, Oregon was known for its explosive offense. Being held to 15 points by the Bears was like a slap in the face, and I expect Oregon to make up for that in a big way.

Friday

#5 Boise State at Fresno State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Boise State has won nine out of 10 games with Fresno State since 2001.

But that single exception came where they will meet on Friday — Bulldog Stadium in Fresno.

Fresno, however, couldn't top a woeful Ole Miss team there last week. It would take a miracle worthy of inclusion in the Bible for the Bulldogs to win this game. And I don't think that's in the cards.

Some people will tell you that miracles happen all the time, and, if that is true, then there is reason for Fresno to hope. But I expect Boise State to win by more than three touchdowns

Saturday

#17 Florida at #1 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Fans of the SEC like to point out that teams from the conference have won five consecutive national titles.

Fans of the LSU and Florida programs will tell you that, in three of those five years, the winner of the LSU–Florida game went on to win the national championship.

Back in the 1990s, Florida tended to dominate this series — as it dominated most of its series with SEC teams.

But, in the last 10 years, each team has won five times, and each has won on the other's home field. When Florida last traveled to Baton Rouge, the Gators beat the Tigers; in fact, they have won four of the last six times they've visited LSU.

But the good news for the top–ranked Tigers is that, when they won the national title in 2007, they played Florida in Baton Rouge and won. It was close — 28–24 — but the Tigers still won the game and, as I say, went on to win it all.

It was probably always going to be a challenge for the Gators to think they could face down this LSU team on the road, but the task became even greater this week when it was revealed that the Gators' starting quarterback, a senior, is injured and a freshman will be pressed into service.

The Gators are good — better than the score of last week's Alabama game would suggest — but they aren't good enough to overcome that. I expect LSU to win by a couple of touchdowns.

Vanderbilt at #2 Alabama, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: In the last couple of weeks, the Alabama defense has made the potent offenses of Arkansas and Florida look like the Keystone Kops.

If the Hogs and the Gators could fare no better than they did against the Crimson Tide, I can't imagine any scenario that might present itself on Saturday that could permit Vanderbilt to leave Tuscaloosa with a victory.

Alabama has beaten Vanderbilt 20 consecutive times. The last time Vandy upended Alabama, Ronald Reagan was campaigning for a second term as president.

I think Alabama will win this game and it might be out of hand by halftime.

#3 Oklahoma vs. #11 Texas at Dallas, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Only once since 2000 have these teams taken the field and only one was in the rankings.

But this is Oklahoma–Texas. Rankings mean nothing in this game. Even so, it just seems wrong when either team enters this game unranked, which happened regularly in the mid– to late 1980s and early 1990s.

It seems worse when neither team is ranked. When that happens — and it's only happened twice since the late 1960s — this game has no meaning at all except to the students and fans — and that really doesn't seem right.

No chance of that this year, though. OU, once ranked #1, has dropped a few spots in the last few weeks only because LSU and Alabama have been so impressive and OU has been, well, rather ordinary. But OU is unbeaten and, if the top four or five remain basically unchanged, things will shake down eventually in the SEC — after all, somebody has to win the Alabama–LSU game on November 5, right? — and OU will be positioned to face the winner for the national title.

But the Sooners have to be careful. Thoughts like that can lead to complacency, and that is precisely what you don't want in Red River Rivalry week.

Texas is ranked 11th — not exactly what the Orangebloods would like but better than they had any right to expect when the Longhorns spun out of control in the last half of the 2010 season.

And Cedric Golden writes in the Austin American–Statesman that the Longhorns relish their underdog role.

"Texas has the look of an up–and–coming team after four straight wins," Golden writes, "but the Sooners have the look of a team that's already arrived."

The fact that both teams are unbeaten and ranked makes this year's game must–see TV, writes Stewart Mandel in Sports Illustrated, and he is correct.

But, when the smoke clears and the dust settles, I expect Oklahoma to prevail by a margin in double digits.

Kansas at #6 Oklahoma State: OSU has defeated Kansas in six of their last seven meetings. But the exception occurred in Stillwater, where the teams will meet on Saturday.

I don't expect Kansas to duplicate that achievement. In fact, I expect Oklahoma State to win — and I don't think it will be close.

Colorado at #7 Stanford, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: This will be the first meeting between these schools as conference rivals, but it won't be their first–ever encounter.

They've met periodically over the years, the last time in 1993, when the schools squared off at Stanford, as they will on Saturday, and Stanford won the last time.

I expect Stanford to win this time, too — and by about three touchdowns.

Boston College at #8 Clemson, 2 p.m. (Central) on RSN: After playing (and beating) Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech in succession, the undefeated Tigers are entitled to a breather.

And 1–4 BC, with only a win over UMass to its credit, seems to fit the bill nicely.

But wait a minute. The Eagles are 4–2 against the Tigers since 2005, including a 16–10 win last year, so a Clemson victory is hardly guaranteed.

I think it will be closer than the records would suggest. I think Clemson will win — but by about 10 points.

#15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The first time these teams played as SEC rivals, the game ended in a tie.

Perhaps that was a sign of things to come. In the 18 games they have played since then, Auburn holds a 10–8 lead over Arkansas. The Razorbacks did beat Auburn the last time the Tigers played in Fayetteville. But, overall, Auburn holds a 5–4 advantage over Arkansas in Fayetteville, and the Tigers won the three contests there before they lost the 2009 game.

Home field really doesn't mean a lot in this series. Each team has beaten the other at home only twice in the last decade.

Auburn won at home last year, but the game was enormously entertaining, with the teams combining for 108 points and more than 1,000 yards in total offense. The quarterbacks who started that game are in the NFL now, but Arkansas' new QB, Tyler Wilson, shattered his predecessor's school single–game passing record in the victory over Texas A&M last week.

Wilson actually made his Razorback debut a year ago against Auburn, throwing for four touchdowns and more than 300 yards, but he was pressed into service when the starter, Ryan Mallett, went down with an injury and Auburn was already leading.

He received plenty of credit for bringing Arkansas to within a single score, but Auburn pulled away in the end.

He'll get to play from the first whistle this time, and I think he will be the difference, too, as Arkansas prevails by 13 points.

#12 Michigan at Northwestern, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Michigan is 10–4 against Northwestern since 1991, but Northwestern won their last meeting.

However, Michigan has not lost at Northwestern since 2000.

And I don't think the Wolverines wil lose this one, either. I think the game will be close, and I think they will be beaten, perhaps more than once, before the season is over, but I believe Michigan will win this game.

Maryland at #13 Georgia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Maryland has struggled at Georgia Tech, winning only two of its last 10 games there.

Maryland might give a valiant effort, but, in the end, I see no reason to think that the Terrapins can win the game. I believe Georgia Tech will win by eight points.

Ohio State at #14 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be Nebraska's first home game as a member of th Big Ten.

It won't be the first time the Cornhuskers have played the Buckeyes — but it might as well be. Their last encounter, at Columbus, Ohio, was in 1956 — the day before the first anniversary of James Dean's fatal crash, for you trivia buffs out there. And, while it hardly has any relevance to 2011 and the teams that will take the field in Lincoln, Neb., Ohio State won that game more than 50 years ago, 34–7.

Ohio State beat Nebraska in Columbus a couple of years before that — but I don't believe the Buckeyes have ever played in Lincoln.

I think Nebraska will play better at home this week than it did last week at Wisconsin. And I think Ohio State is clearly not as good as it was last year.

The margin may be in single digits, though. Give me Nebraska by about nine points.

Connecticut at #16 West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East Network: Connecticut is 1–6 against West Virginia since joining the Big East, and the Huskies have never beaten the Mountaineers on the road.

UConn might have the horses to stay with West Virginia until the second half, but I expect West Virginia to win by about 12 points.

Kentucky at #18 South Carolina, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: When Kentucky upset South Carolina last year, it snapped a 10–year losing streak.

And I just can't see Kentucky defeating South Carolina in football in consecutive years, especially since the rematch will be in South Carolina. I have no problem picturing Kentucky dominating South Carolina in basketball — but not in football.

South Carolina should win this game by about 16 points.

#19 Illinois at Indiana, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Illinois is 10–6 against Indiana since 1995.

These schools have probably been accustomed to having their share of attention when they have played in basketball, but an experience like this during football season has ben rare, indeed.

(I thought it was revealing that the Champaign–Urbana (Ill.) News–Gazette featured a picture of Hoosier ex–coach Bobby Knight throwing a chair at a basketball game as the illustration for the prediction in the football game. I would have thought the newspaper would post a photo of the 19th–ranked Illini in action.

(I suppose that, if it weren't for the recent success of the NFL franchises in Chicago and Indianapolis, football season would have little meaning for many folks in those two states.)

Well, I'll pick Illinois to win this game by about 13 points.

Missouri at #20 Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Missouri has beaten Kansas State five consecutive times, and that includes two straight wins at KSU.

But, prior to that, KSU won eight straight home games against Missouri.

Missouri seems to be slipping while K–State seems to be on its way up. For that reason, I'll take Kansas State

Miami (Fla.) at #21 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 20th straight year these schools have met on the football field.

In such a time period, few schools in recent decades can say they have beaten Miami more frequently than they have lost — but Virginia Tech can make that claim. The Hokies are 11–8 against Miami since 1992.

What's more, the Hokies have won six of the last eight meetings.

Virginia Tech should continue to dominate a Miami team that has plenty of distractions these days.

#22 Arizona State at Utah, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Utah is joining the Pac–12 this year so this is Utah's first conference game with Arizona State. But it isn't the first time the schools have faced each other.

Their last encounter came in September 1993, when Arizona State blanked visiting Utah, 38–0. They also played in 1991 and four times in the 1980s — each time in Tempe — and Arizona State won each time.

Things weren't any different when they played in Salt Lake City. The last time they did that, though, was in 1977. ASU won by nearly 30 points.

The last time Utah beat ASU was about a week and a half after Jimmy Carter was elected president. The last time Utah beat ASU at home was nearly 40 years ago.

While all those games are part of the fairly distant past, it's still going to be a challenge for the Utes, who have been much better in recent years, to win this game. They've struggled to a 2–2 record this year, but I'll predict a modest upset — Utah by a field goal.

#23 Florida State at Wake Forest, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network: It's a little hard for me to understand why Florida State is still in the Top 25.

I mean, the Seminoles got off to a 2–0 start (with wins over Louisiana–Monroe and Charleston Southern), but then they lost to Oklahoma and Clemson and had a bye week last week.

So FSU hasn't won a game since Sept. 10 and has been beaten twice by other ranked teams.

Wake Forest has a better record (3–1) but is not ranked. Of course, the Demon Deacons haven't faced a ranked opponent yet, either — and, whereas Wake Forest had some good seasons in the middle of the last decade, they have been more apt to succeed in basketball than football.

Head to head, Florida State is 16–3 against Wake Forest since 1992 and is 7–1 at Wake Forest during that time.

I don't expect that trend to change. Florida State should defeat Wake Forest by about 12 points.

#24 Texas A&M at Texas Tech, 6 p.m. (Central) on FX: The Aggies must be reeling after blowing two significant halftime leads in the last two weeks and tumbling from the Top 10 to #24. Meanwhile, Tech has been quietly compiling a 4–0 mark.

Since they have been members of the Big 12, Tech has won two–thirds of its games with A&M, and the Red Raiders have been even more dominant at home, winning six of seven meetings.

Practically the reverse was true in the last 15 seasons of the Southwest Conference. The Aggies beat the Raiders 60% of the time in those years, and they won in Lubbock half the time.

I expect the margin to be close, but, when all is said and done, I believe this game will more closely resemble the ones from the SWC days. Texas A&M will win by about five points.

Iowa State at #25 Baylor, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Since they became Big 12 rivals, Iowa State has won its head–to–head series with Baylor, 5–3. In Waco, however, the series is tied, 2–2.

They played once before that, in 1988, when Iowa State came to Waco and lost, 35–0, so Baylor does enjoy a slight edge at home in its all–time series with the Cyclones. But this is an opportunity to seize the advantage in the series as conference rivals.

Of course, no one knows how long the Big 12 will continue to exist.

But if this turns out to be the last time Baylor hosts Iowa State, I expect it will be a good experience for the Bears. Baylor will win.

Last week: 14–4

Season: 89–14

Sunday, October 2, 2011

An Awesome Comeback

Ordinarily, I am very hesitant to use the word awesome — it's overused, and inappropriately used, too, as I have written before.

But no other word seems to do justice to what happened in Cowboys Stadium yesterday afternoon.

If you missed it (and, for reasons I would prefer not to get into right now, I nearly did), my alma mater, the the 18th–ranked University of Arkansas Razorbacks, rallied from an 18–point halftime deficit against the 14th–ranked Texas A&M Aggies to win, 42–38.

Before the season began, there were a lot of whispers among Razorback fans. Would Tyler Wilson, the understudy at quarterback, be able to fill the considerable shoes left by Ryan Mallett, who left school a year early to try his luck in the NFL?

(Mallett is currently the understudy to Tom Brady in New England — which means that, barring a Drew Bledsoe–like injury, Mallett is likely to spend the next few years riding the bench.)

Well, judging from yesterday's game, Wilson is more than capable of filling Mallett's shoes. He set a school single–game record in the comeback win, passing for more than 500 yards and, in the process, obliterating the record Mallett set against Vanderbilt last year.

There were several dramatic moments yesterday. There were the buildups for the obvious contests — Nebraska–Wisconsin, Alabama–Florida, Clemson–Virginia Tech — and then there were the outcomes that qualified as shocking (or, at least, surprising) — Kansas State's win over Baylor, for example (which I predicted), and SMU's victory over TCU in Fort Worth (which I did not).

But there was nothing like the Razorbacks and the Aggies.

Coming into the game, Arkansas had allowed only one rushing touchdown in its first four games. Admittedly, those first three opponents were nothing special, but the one last week (Alabama) certainly was.

Texas A&M scored five rushing touchdown in the first half. The Aggies seemed to be unstoppable — or maybe the Razorbacks were still struggling with the hangover from their 38–14 loss to Alabama last week. Whichever it was, I seriously considered not watching the second half. That's how lopsided it was.

What happened in the second half reminded me of an Arkansas game I attended many years ago, back when the Hogs and the Aggies were members of the old Southwest Conference.

It was a cold, dreary day in Fayetteville, Ark., when Baylor came to visit. A conference doormat when I was growing up, Baylor was asserting itself in those days and came to Fayetteville ranked 17th in the nation. Arkansas had climbed all the way to fourth in the national rankings before falling to eventual SWC champion Houston, but the Hogs were still in the top 10 — at #9 — and the home fans were confident that Arkansas would win.

The first half of that game is a blur in my memory now. I don't remember if Arkansas scored in that first half, but Baylor certainly did — repeatedly — and I remember that the Bears seemed to be in control of that game when the intermission came.

I also remember how quiet the usually boisterous Razorback Stadium crowd was. I overheard some people near me talking about leaving, and I found the thought tempting. I was cold and wet, and the idea of sitting in front of a warm fire instead of on a cold bleacher watching my beloved Razorbacks take a beating was appealing.

But I stayed and so did most of the home crowd — and we were rewarded with a great comeback. The Razorbacks won, 29–20. I don't remember the details, but I remember the growing excitement in the crowd as Arkansas gradually overcame Baylor.

It must have been like that for Razorback fans in Cowboys Stadium yesterday — except that what happened yesterday must have been even more impressive. It had to have been because Baylor only scored 20 points in the entire game that I saw. Arkansas scored 25 points in the second half against the Aggies — and held A&M to a field goal in the process.

It was awesome.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

A Very Special Moment

The start of the baseball playoffs is a special time for a baseball fan — no matter which teams are playing.

It's been particularly special for fans in north Texas the last couple of years because the Texas Rangers have been participants in the postseason, advancing to their first–ever World Series last year.

But what happened at The Ballpark in Arlington yesterday was extraordinary, touching beyond words.

Cooper Stone, the young son of the firefighter who fell to his death at The Ballpark in July, threw out the first pitch with his mother and Nolan Ryan watching on.

Being in the playoffs is becoming something of a regular thing for the Rangers — at least for the last couple of years — and a lot of people around here hope that appearing in the World Series is going to become a habit as well.

But no one around here wants to repeat what happened on that evening nearly three months ago when Cooper's dad, Shannon Stone, tumbled headfirst over the railing.

It was a traumatic moment for a lot of people around here, whether they follow the Rangers, whether they care about sports, whether they saw it happen. I haven't heard it mentioned much lately, but it never seems to be far from anyone's thoughts.

Surely, that night back in July when his father fell to his death was a traumatic one for Cooper. My understanding is that yesterday was the first time he has been at The Ballpark since that tragic night, and his mother spoke of the occasion as almost an act of closure, which, I suppose, it was.

It was also an act of closure for the people who live in this area. I didn't see Cooper's pitch, but I heard from many people who did — and almost all spoke of the healing effect it had on them.

If the Rangers return to the World Series, I hope they will invite Cooper and his mother to return to The Ballpark. But that might be easier said than done. The Rangers, who were almost never shut out at home this season, lost their divisional series opener with Tampa Bay, 9–0.

An Unlikely Home Run King

It was 50 years ago today that Roger Maris broke what may have been the most cherished record in baseball at that time — Babe Ruth's single–season home run record.

I found myself thinking about that a lot this summer — not because I remember the achievement (it happened before my time) but mostly, I guess, because the brutal heat brought back memories of the sweltering summer of 1998, when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa waged an epic duel to see who would surpass Maris.

It was the first such duel since that summer of '61, when Maris and his much more popular teammate, Mickey Mantle, tried to be the one who would surpass the Babe. Injury sidelined Mantle for a time, giving Maris the opportunity to challenge the Sultan of Swat by himself.

Of the two, I guess, Mantle was the one who was always the most likely to challenge the Babe's status in the single–season record book. He was always more popular with Yankee fans than Maris, and his numbers always suggested that it was possible that he could challenge that record.

His numbers have held up, too. Even now, more than 40 years after he retired and more than 15 after he died, Mantle is 16th on the all–time home run list.

So perhaps that injury could be seen as something of a fluke, an intervention of some kind — except for the fact that Mantle was plagued with injuries most of his career. That's often the topic of speculation among baseball experts. How great could Mantle have been, they have wondered, if he hadn't been injured so often?

Maris' career numbers, on the other hand, have to be regarded as somewhat ordinary. If you exclude the 1961 season, Maris averaged about 20 home runs a year. I guess the 1960 season — when Maris hit a then–career best 39 home runs — that even greater things might be in store the next year ...

Except that Mantle hit 40 home runs to lead the American League in 1960. I guess the only thing one could conclude from that would be that Maris and Mantle might have been poised for some kind of spirited battle between the two of them in 1961 — but threats to the Babe? Come on.

Until this summer, the summer of 1998 was the second—hottest on record in many places — second only to the legendary summer of 1980 — but a lot of baseball fans may not have noticed unless they went to the games.

And there is no doubt that many did go to games that summer — certainly, they came out to watch the games in St. Louis and Chicago.

In the end, both McGwire and Sosa shattered Maris' mark that had stood for nearly 40 years. And, a few years later, Barry Bonds broke that record as well.

All available evidence suggests, however, that steroids played a key role in those achievements. If not for those performance–enhancing substances, what Maris did 50 years ago today might still be the record — but it wouldn't be carrying that asterisk with it.

Ah, yes, the asterisk.

When folks refer to it on a telephone's keypad, they often call it a "star" — because it kinda looks like one.

I don't usually correct people when they call it a "star" just as I don't correct people when they say "oh" when they really mean "zero" or if they call a hyphen a dash (although I do think it because, well, I spent many years working on newspaper copy desks, and I have been teaching developmental writing at the local community college for more than a year now so I suppose I am conditioned to think of these things even if I don't verbalize them).

But it isn't really a star — and the way it was planned to be used in 1961, it couldn't have made Maris feel like one, either.

The asterisk concept was intended to permit the Babe's record to remain in the record books even though it had been broken.

I say "concept" because, apparently, it is something of an urban legend that an asterisk was used. What happened was this:

The sports establishment of the time was still very protective of Babe Ruth in 1961, and the commissioner announced midway through the season that, unless someone hit 61 home runs within 154 games, as Ruth had, his mark would remain in the record books for a 154–game season, and the new record would be designated as having been achieved since the 162–game seasons began.

Maris failed to match Ruth's record — let alone surpass it — in 154 games, but, on the last day of the season — 50 years ago today — he hit his 61st home run, igniting a debate that continues in some circles. No asterisk was used, but Ruth's mark remained in the record books as the record for a 154–game season.

Several years after Maris hit 61 homers, baseball's commissioner concluded that a season is a season, however many games are played, and Maris' mark was the only true record. That should have been the end of it.

When Ruth hit 60 home runs back in the Roaring '20s, as I say, major league baseball seasons were 154 games. When Maris played in the 1960s, a season was 162 games. The story was dramatized in a made–for–TV movie on HBO 10 years ago. Billy Crystal, a lifelong New York Yankees fan, directed it and was, by nearly all accounts, faithful to the facts.

But the asterisk was in the title — helping to perpetuate the myth.

I'm sure that wasn't Crystal's intention. But it was effective at reminding people of the mild controversy that was sparked by that pursuit of the record.

I guess it wasn't so mild from Maris' point of view. He received hate mail and death threats. I've heard that he was under so much stress in 1961 that his hair literally began to fall out of his head — and I've also heard that the stress hastened his death at the age of 51 (although I have considerable doubts about that).

He was an unlikely home run king who claimed his crown on this day.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Conference Competition Is Under Way

There are a few exceptions, but, for the most part, nonconference games have ended and conference competition has begun.

Here in north Texas, for example, there are a couple of noteworthy nonconference games on the agenda — in a game that has clear national implications, Texas A&M and Arkansas will meet in what is a nonconference game in 2011 but, apparently, will be a conference game in 2012, and SMU and TCU will meet in an old rivalry that almost certainly has more meaning locally than anywhere else.

And, in the remaining two months of the regular season, there will be, from time to time, other nonconference games that are old rivalries — like Notre Dame–USC and Florida–Florida State — but not conference clashes.

They are among the best examples of the rich tradition of college football, and I hope they won't be casualties of the movement toward "super conferences." But those games will be in a distinct minority.

Not that the conference games won't be intriguing. Some unexpected contenders will emerge — and some that were expected to contend will fade.

But, in my opinion, you just can't top an intense rivalry. It's what makes college football what it is.

Idle: #5 Oklahoma State, #9 Oregon, #23 Florida State

Today

#16 South Florida at Pittsburgh, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Some of South Florida's players must be wondering what they have to do to get some respect.

They beat Notre Dame on the road. They are 4–0 and ranked in the top 20. But the Tampa area has been mesmerized of late by the Rays' quest to win the AL Wild Card. Since that has been resolved, attention may now turn to the Bulls.

But don't count on it. It may take some convincing for folks in Tampa — who have suffered through many painful seasons with the Buccaneers — to jump on the bandwagon.

And, even when/if they do, that attention isn't necessarily going to be positive positive. The Bulls are good, concedes Joey Johnston in the Tampa Tribune, but there is still much work to be done.

As they prepare to start Big East play against Pittsburgh, Johnston observes, "USF is perfect ... [b]ut this is an imperfect team."

And that was Johnston's assessment just after a four–touchdown USF win.

No offense to UTEP, but Pittsburgh will provide the best gauge to date for how far USF has come — better even than Notre Dame. Sure, South Bend is a legendary place to play a football game, but the Irish no longer enjoy the advantages of playing there that they did under Rockne and Parseghian and Holtz. From 2003 to 2010, they were 27–23 in their home stadium — a winning percentage of less than 55%.

Pitt is 5–3 against South Florida since 2001 and has won the last three contests.

This will be one of those games that will tell us if South Florida really is worthy of its Top 25 ranking.

And I'm inclined to think the Bulls will fall short by about three points. I pick Pittsburgh.

Saturday

Kentucky at #1 LSU, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Since these schools play in separate divisions, they do not meet every year, and this will be their first clash since 2007.

Kentucky won that game, by the way. It was one of only two losses in LSU's most recent national championship season.

That game was played in Kentucky, though. The Wildcats haven't beaten the Tigers in Baton Rouge since 1998.

And I don't expect the Tigers to lose this time. I pick LSU to win by four touchdowns.

Ball State at #2 Oklahoma: These schools may have played each other in basketball at one time or another, possibly in the NCAA Tournament, but I don't believe they have ever played on the gridiron.

And I have seen nothing that suggests that OU will face any kind of challenge in its final pre–Texas warmup. I think Oklahoma will win handily.

#3 Alabama at #12 Florida, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: As non–divisional SEC opponents, these schools don't meet every year. But, thanks to the SEC Championship games of 2008 and 2009, this will be the fourth consecutive season they have played.

Both of those title games were played in Atlanta. In regular–season clashes, Alabama has done pretty well at home, but the Crimson Tide hasn't won in Gainesville since 1999 — and that was by a single point. Before that, you have to go back to 1986 to find Alabama's most recent win at Florida.

That is the nature of the challenge facing Alabama on Saturday. Often, the Alabama mystique is enough to put the fear of God in a foe, but, in recent years, both 'Bama and Florida have won national titles and Heisman Trophies.

Florida isn't likely to be intimidated by Alabama, especially not at home.

The Gators lost three times at home last year, which was very unusual for them. They only lost a total of three home games between 2005 and 2009.

I'm not quite sold on Florida this year. The Gators might well be in the SEC title game this year, but their record won't be unblemished. I expect Alabama, with its powerful defense, to beat Florida by about five or six points.

Nevada at #4 Boise State, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: Nevada handed Boise State its only loss last year, but that makes the challenge of traveling to Boise that much more difficult this year.

Before that, Nevada had lost 10 straight to Boise State, and Boise has won six straight against Nevada at home.

I think Boise State will make that seven straight wins at home.

UCLA at #6 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: In their last 20 clashes on the Stanford campus, both teams have won 10 times.

Neither team has enjoyed a lengthy edge there. Stanford won there in 2009, but UCLA came away with victories in 2005 and 2007.

It's been an entirely different story in Los Angeles, where UCLA has a 14–5–1 record against Stanford in the same time span.

If the game was being played in L.A., I might be tempted to take UCLA, but with the home crowd in its favor, I pick Stanford — and by an uncharacteristically healthy margin in this series.

#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be an historic game for the Cornhuskers. It will be their first conference game as members of the Big Ten.

It won't be the first meeting between Nebraska and Wisconsin. They played each other in 1973 and 1974, with both teams winning at home. They had a similar arrangement in 1965 and 1966 except Nebraska won both of those games.

I think it will be a competitive game, and I agree with Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal, who believes this could be a preview of the very first Big Ten championship game.

I don't know where that game will be played or if these teams will be playing in it, but I predict the host team, Wisconsin, will win this time.

Auburn at #10 South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is a rematch of last year's SEC Championship game.

That was the first time the teams had played for the conference crown. But, counting that game, Auburn is 6–0 against South Carolina since the Gamecocks joined the SEC. South Carolina hasn't beaten Auburn since 1933, and I don't think South Carolina has ever beaten Auburn at home.

But I think South Carolina will top Auburn on Saturday by about nine points.

#13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Clemson has lost its last five in a row to Virginia Tech and hasn't beaten the Hokies since 1989 — which also happens to be the last time Clemson beat Tech on the road.

Clemson has become something of a media darling in this first month of the college season, but I'm inclined to think that Virginia Tech will win this game. Clemson has been tested too often this September and really needs a breather right now, not a game against the 11th–ranked team in the nation.

#14 Texas A&M vs. #18 Arkansas at Arlington, Texas, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These old Southwest Conference rivals — and soon–to–be SEC rivals — resumed play two years ago. Arkansas beat the Aggies in 2009 and 2010.

Prior to that, the teams hadn't played each other since their SWC days. A&M won the last SWC contest between the two back in 1991.

This will the third and final game in what can be seen — in the context of this series — as an interlude between relationships as conference rivals. The Hogs are banged up after losing to Alabama, but the Aggies are a bit woozy, too, after losing a one–point decision to Oklahoma State.

I expect this one to be close, but I'll pick Arkansas by a field goal.

#15 Baylor at Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Baylor is 2–5 against Kansas State since the teams became conference rivals in the mid–1990s.

But that record is somewhat misleading. Baylor was 8–72 in its first decade of Big 12 play. The Bears were 0–4 against K–State in that time.

Baylor is 2–1 against K–State since 2006, but the Bears' only loss came at Manhattan, Kansas — where Baylor has never won.

Frankly, I see this one as being dead even. It could even go into overtime.

I'll give a slight edge to the home team, Kansas State, and Baylor's frustration in Manhattan will continue.

#17 Texas at Iowa State, 6 p.m. (Central) on FX: Until last year, Texas was 7–0 against Iowa State since 1979, but Iowa State ended that skid with victory in Austin that started a four–game Texas losing streak.

I think it is safe to say that the returning Longhorns have a score to settle. And Trey Scott writes in the Dallas Morning News that the formula for victory is a fast start followed by clock control.

If the Longhorns can do what they did against UCLA, Scott suggests, they should win. But they have more often been, in the words of senior center David Snow, "a late–quarter team."

I don't know how the Longhorns will play against Oklahoma next week, but I think Texas should be able to avenge its loss to Iowa State.

Minnesota at #19 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Michigan has won 19 of its last 20 contests with Minnesota — but that single loss came in Ann Arbor in 2005.

I give Minnesota's coach all the credit in the world for putting the welfare of the football program ahead of his own needs, but I don't think the Gophers can stay with the Wolverines.

I pick Michigan by about three touchdowns.

#21 Georgia Tech at North Carolina State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Georgia Tech usually beats N.C. State, but the Wolfpack won last year.

And Tech (4–0) has been impressive, scoring more than 60 points twice (all right, they were both home games — and they were against Western Carolina and Kansas) while N.C. State (2–2) hasn't been.

Consequently, there really is no good reason for doing what I'm about to do — except that it's a gut feeling I have (as well as the fact that the Wolfpack have won eight of their last nine home games).

It may be regarded as an upset, but I will take North Carolina State.

SMU at #20 TCU, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This game, which has been played almost every year, has come to be known as the "Battle for the Iron Skillet." Fittingly, it has been a hotly contested game for years.

TCU currently has a four–game winning streak in the series — which just about accounts for TCU's all–time lead (44–39–7). The Frogs have also won 10 of the last 11 games between the schools, with SMU's only victory over TCU since 1998 coming at SMU in 2005.

The Mustangs haven't beaten TCU in Fort Worth since 1993, though, and I'm not inclined to think that will change this weekend. I expect a fairly close game, but I believe TCU will prevail.

Bowling Green at #22 West Virginia: These schools last played in 1991, when Bowling Green came to visit and lost by a single touchdown.

Before that, Bowling Green visited West Virginia in September 1988 and lost, 62–14.

The Mountaineers have had to play some stiff competition of late. No offense to Bowling Green, but I don't think this will be much of a test. West Virginia will win — probably not by seven touchdowns but by a comfortable margin.

Northwestern at #24 Illinois, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: In the last 30 years, this series has been pretty close — Illinois has won 16 times, Northwestern has won 14.

And I think this year's edition will be close, but I think that has more to do with the fact that I never seem to know what to expect from Northwestern. When I was a boy, the Wildcats were always bad, but, in recent years, they've been pretty good — good enough to get into the Rose Bowl once.

I thought the Illini were more predictable in recent years, but maybe not. I mean, here it is, the end of September, and Illinois is in the Top 25. Not too long ago, Illinois managed one, two, maybe three wins a season.

Maybe Illinois is this year's Northwestern. OK, I'll pick the Illini to win by a field goal.

Oregon State at #25 Arizona State: Oregon State comes into this game having won the last three meetings, but OSU's dominance is a rather recent development. Before that streak began, ASU had won 13 of the previous 16 contests.

And Arizona State has the better team — by about 17 points.

Last week: 17–2

Season: 75–10

Friday, September 23, 2011

Road Test 2: The Sequel

Arkansas' last win over Alabama — in 2006 — was a double–overtime thriller.

Last week was dubbed "Road Test Saturday" by sports TV's talking heads because so many of the top college football teams were playing in big road games.

I guess it was a grueling test because some Top 25 teams flunked it.

Defending national champion Auburn, ranked #21 in last week's AP poll, lost at unranked Clemson. The 15th–ranked Michigan State Spartans lost at unranked Notre Dame. Arizona State's 22nd–ranked Sun Devils lost at Illinois. And #17 Ohio State lost at unranked Miami.

Not too surprisingly, though, some did pass the test — Oklahoma won at Florida State, LSU beat Mississippi State, West Virginia handled Maryland, and Texas turned back UCLA (for the first time in 40 years).

Actually, this week is kind of like "Road Test 2: The Sequel." My alma mater, the University of Arkansas, is facing a road test of its own this week as the 14th–ranked Razorbacks travel to #3 Alabama.

So, too, is #2 LSU in its game at #16 West Virginia.

Seventh–ranked Oklahoma State is at #8 Texas A&M, and #11 Florida State visits #21 Clemson.

Just think. Conference play hasn't really started in earnest yet.

My friends back in Arkansas speak of LSU as the Razorbacks' primary rival now that the Arkansas–Texas rivalry with which I grew up is no more — or, at least, relegated to irregular meetings, not the annual battles I remember. I'm inclined to think of the Alabama game as the big one on my football schedule now. It's the one I look forward to.

In their pre–SEC days, the Razorbacks probably played LSU more often than they played Alabama. I know they lost once to Alabama when I was a student in Fayetteville — in the Sugar Bowl. Maybe that is what makes the game so meaningful to me — my memory of fervently wishing the Razorbacks would defeat Bear Bryant and his Crimson Tide and feeling devastated when they failed to do so.

Idle: #5 Stanford, #19 Texas

Saturday

Missouri at #1 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on FX: Going into last year's game in Columbia, Mo., the Tigers had lost six in a row to Oklahoma (including the Big 12 title game a couple of years ago, but they left the field with a rare victory over the Sooners.

The Tigers haven't won in Norman since 1998. I don't think that will change, but I do think Oklahoma will win — by about nine points.

#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I know West Virginia would like to avenge its 20–14 loss in Baton Rouge in 2010 — for many reasons, not the least of which is the fact that the Mountaineers will be playing in front of their home fans.

But I don't think it's going to happen.

In Louisiana, Scott Rabalais writes in the Baton Rouge Advocate that there is a lot of excitement being generated by the expected return to the field of Russell Shepard, who was declared ineligible to participate in the first three games of the season because he apparently spoke with a teammate during the summer about his upcoming testimony to an NCAA investigator.

I do believe LSU is overrated — and probably will be beaten a couple of times during conference play in October and/or November — but, right now, I think LSU can win this game by about 12 points.

#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Alabama has a four–game winning streak against the Razorbacks, but that is misleading when it comes to this series.

Since joining the SEC nearly two decades ago, Arkansas has a 7–12 record against Alabama — not too bad considering that the Razorbacks had never beaten Alabama before they joined the conference — and, when 'Bama's current winning streak began, Arkansas was on the brink of evening up the all–time series.

In fact, until Alabama notched its fourth straight win over Arkansas last year, a four–game winning streak for either team in this series has been unheard of since they became conference rivals. History says it is Arkansas' turn. That's the good news, I guess.

The bad news for the Razorbacks, though, is that they are 3–6 in Tuscaloosa, and they haven't won there since 2003.

As long as I can remember, it has always been a challenge for a visitor to win in Tuscaloosa. Auburn did it last year (en route to a national championship), but, with the exceptions of a few mediocre seasons in the last decade, visitors have been struggling there since the days of Bear Bryant.

And, as much as I would like to see my alma mater win the game, common sense tells me that Alabama probably will win this time.

Tulsa at #4 Boise State, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Boise State is 5–0 against Tulsa since 2001.

Make that 6–0.

Tulsa came up short by a touchdown or less in the last three clashes with Boise so Tulsa is capable of keeping it close, but, when the dust settles, I think Boise State will win — perhaps by a double–digit margin for the first time since 2002.

South Dakota at #6 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I just don't see how South Dakota can be competitive in this game.

It's being played in Wisconsin, where the Badgers rarely lose. Sure, Wisconsin does lose at home from time to time, but usually to a Big Ten rival.

Wisconsin hasn't lost a nonconference game at home since 2003, and I don't think the Badgers will lose this one, either. I expect Wisconsin to win by several touchdowns.

#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There are really two stories to tell about this series.

Since they became members of the same conference in 1996, Texas A&M is 10–5 against Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State owns a three–game winning streak in the series.

recent

Texas A&M

very

#9 Nebraska at Wyoming, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: This will be the first meeting between Nebraska and Wyoming in nearly 20 years.

Their last meeting came on Oct. 1, 1994, when Nebraska beat Wyoming in Lincoln, 42–32.

Nebraska was en route to an undefeated season at the time. Wyoming wound up breaking even.

Ten years before that, in the 1984 season opener, Wyoming came to Lincoln and lost, 42–7. And, in 1983, Wyoming came to Nebraska and lost, 56–20.

They played prior to that time — in 1934 and 1968 — but two things were always the same in the series: Nebraska was always the home team, and the Cornhuskers always won.

This year, for the first time, Wyoming will be the home team. Will that change the outcome? I don't think so. I'll take Nebraska by a wide margin.

#10 Oregon at Arizona, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Oregon has won three straight against Arizona, and the Ducks are 14–4 against the Wildcats since 1993.

But three of those losses came at Arizona.

I think Arizona is clearly on an upward trajectory — but the Wildcats haven't reached Oregon's level yet. I pick Oregon to win the game.

#11 Florida State at #21 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: In the last four seasons, the home team has prevailed when these teams have met.

And, in the last 10 years, each team has beaten the other five times.

It would be an understatement to say that this is a competitive series. And it would be foolish to overlook the role the home field plays in it.

Ira Schoffel writes in the Tallahassee Democrat, that Florida State's players believe the Clemson crowd is the noisiest they will encounter away from home. If FSU quarterback E.J. Manuel is able to play, though, that will help keep the noise level down.

But I wouldn't be too quick to say FSU will win simply because the Seminoles are ranked higher than the Tigers.

Nevertheless, I will pick Florida State to win by about a touchdown. I'm just not sold — well, not entirely — on Clemson. Not yet.

I could be, though — if the Tigers turn back the Seminoles.

Vanderbilt at #12 South Carolina: South Carolina has thoroughly dominated Vanderbilt since joining the SEC in the early 1990s, winning 15 of their 19 encounters.

The Gamecocks struggled a bit last year, winning 21–7 without freshman of the year Marcus Lattimore, who had an ankle injury. But Greg Sullivan of The Tennessean warns readers that Lattimore is at full strength this year and "should have plenty of opportunities to impact the game."

Doesn't sound promising for Vandy. I think South Carolina will win by three touchdowns.

#13 Virginia Tech at Marshall, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: This will be the fourth time these schools have met since 2002. Tech won the previous three.

Virginia Tech should win again.

#15 Florida at Kentucky, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Practically never in college football has one team dominated another the way Florida has dominated Kentucky.

The teams have been playing every season since 1967, and the Gators have won the last 24 in a row. Kentucky's last victory over Florida was on Nov. 15, 1986.

Fact is, the Wildcats won their share of games with the Gators during the 1970s, but, for nearly a quarter of a century, the series has been lopsided (like the scores in many of their games). Kentucky hasn't lost by less than 10 points since 2003, when Florida narrowly turned back a struggling Kentucky team by a field goal, but I have a feeling this one will be close.

I pick Florida by a touchdown.

Rice at #17 Baylor, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Once regular rivals in the Southwest Conference, Baylor and Rice renewed their series last year for only the second time since the demise of the SWC.

Baylor won both encounters by wide margins.

In fact, Baylor won its last three SWC games with Rice — and won 15 of its last 20 SWC games with Rice.

Logic tells me that Baylor will win this game, too, and Rice will leave Waco still looking for its first victory over Baylor since 1992.

Texas–El Paso at #18 South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: I don't believe these schools have ever met, but I doubt it will matter.

I expect South Florida to win it easily.

Portland State at #20 TCU: Like the UTEP–South Florida game, I don't think the participants in this game have ever met.

And, once again, I don't think it will matter. TCU should win by a wide margin.

San Diego State at #22 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: San Diego State came to Ann Arbor in 2004.

SDSU wound up 4–7 that year. Michigan went 9–3 and beat Texas in the Rose Bowl.

Yet, on that mid–September day, Michigan won by a field goal.

I say this from a historian's point of view: History really does have a way of repeating myself.

And I say this from the perspective of a college football fan: Michigan should win this game — but it could be closer than a lot of people expect.

#23 USC at Arizona State, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Arizona State hasn't beaten Southern California since before the dawn of the 21st century.

ASU's last win in the series came in 1999, when both schools finished 6–6. That game was played in Los Angeles. The Sun Devils't last win over USC at home was a few years before that.

I think Arizona State will bounce back from its stumble in Illinois last week and win this game by perhaps a field goal.

Western Michigan at #24 Illinois, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I've seen betting lines that have established Illinois as a double–digit favorite.

Recent history suggests that you should take Western Michigan and the points — because these teams have played twice since 2004, and both games were decided by a touchdown or less.

What's more, Western Michigan won when it traveled to Illinois in 2004.

I don't think that will happen this time. I expect Illinois to win. But don't be surprised if the score is close.

North Carolina at #25 Georgia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Since 1980, this series has been about as close as a series can be — 15–15–1 — but it's been leaning in Tech's favor at home, where the Yellow Jackets have won their last six against North Carolina.

North Carolina has been touted as the ACC's dark horse this year. If the Tar Heels are going to live up to expectations, this is where it needs to begin. In what will likely be regarded as an upset, I'll go with North Carolina.

Last week: 20–3.

Season: 58–8

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

OU, Florida State Seek Legitimacy

In many ways, the 2011 Oklahoma Sooners are the Rodney Dangerfields of college football.

They don't get no respect.

It's tough, as I have observed here recently, to be the preseason #1, as the Sooners were this year, with all the expectations that designation carries with it — and many sports writers have been speculating about when, not if OU would lose.

That isn't unreasonable. The Sooners will face several quality opponents this season, most of whom are ranked and some others who could be if things fall just right.

I, too, am skeptical about their chances of having a perfect season. I believe the top–ranked Sooners can be beaten, possibly more than once.

But I'm skeptical of all the perceived contenders' chances of going undefeated. Frankly, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the national championship game doesn't come down to two one–loss teams this year.

I don't know — and neither does anyone else — whether Oklahoma will be one of those two teams. But I think it is definitely possible that, if it is OU's destiny to be one of two one–loss teams playing for the national title, this game with Florida State could be OU's one loss.

For that matter, it could be Florida State's only loss.

John Shinn of the Norman (Okla.) Transcript writes that the Sooners are eager to make a statement in this road trip.

I'm sure their hosts are just as eager to make a statement. Should be a fun game to watch.

No one in the Top 25 is idle this week.

Thursday

#3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State, 7 p.m. on ESPN: LSU has won 11 in a row against Mississippi State.

MSU's last victory in the series came in 1999 in Starkville, Miss., where they will be playing this year.

Mississippi State gave Auburn a good run for its money last week, and I'm inclined to think the same thing will happen this week. LSU usually beats MSU by a double–digit margin, but I think MSU will keep it within a TD this time.

LSU still will win.

Friday

#4 Boise State at Toledo, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These two schools met last year, and Boise State won easily, 57–14.

It won't be that easy this time, but I still think Boise State will prevail by 10 points, at least.

Saturday

#1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the second time these teams have met since OU beat FSU for the national title on Jan. 3, 2001. They played in Norman on Sept. 11 last year, and the Sooners cruised to a 47–17 victory.

I think this will be the first time Florida State has ever hosted Oklahoma. They met in a couple of Orange Bowls in the late 1970s and early 1980s (OU won both), and the Sooners won a home game against the Seminoles in 1976, but that's it.

I'm not convinced that OU can go unbeaten, but, at this stage of the season, I think the Sooners can beat Florida State by, perhaps, a touchdown.

North Texas at #2 Alabama, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: I got my B.A. at Arkansas and my M.A. at North Texas.

Those are Alabama's next two foes — starting with North Texas this week — so I expect to be pulling against Alabama a lot in the foreseeable future.

Alabama and Arkansas are Southeastern Conference rivals so they have been playing every year for nearly two decades now. North Texas is not in the SEC, but 'Bama and UNT have met before — in 2009, in fact, North Texas came to Tuscaloosa and got hammered, 53–7, in Alabama's most recent national championship season.

Six years earlier, North Texas came to Alabama and lost, 33–7.

The last meeting before that was in 1995. Again, Alabama prevailed, 38–19. And that, I believe, is the extent of this series.

Most football fans probably aren't interested, but UNT happens to have one of the largest student bodies in the state of Texas. A new stadium has been unveiled on campus this season.

I suppose the one I used to go to when I was a graduate student there has been demolished, and my guess is that the new facility has a number of advantages over the old one, but I suspect that the seating capacity is not that much greater than it was in the old one.

And most of those seats were empty when the football team played.

I went to several games there when I was a graduate student, and — at best — about one–third of the seats were filled on any occasion. That is because UNT, being so close to Dallas and Fort Worth, was mostly a commuter school when I was there, and I imagine it remains that way today. Relatively few students remained in town on weekends; thus, a small segment of the student population attended football games there.

If the UNT football team could bring big–name opposition to Denton, it would be a huge boost for the school and the city. But that probably isn't economically feasible for any major football team that can't get there by bus in a few hours.

Nevertheless, I think a pattern has been established from the games that have been played between the schools. And no one in Denton seems to be suggesting that North Texas might be on the verge of reversing that pattern. The Denton Record–Chronicle sees week–to–week improvement in UNT's 0–2 start — but nothing that even remotely suggests that North Texas has a prayer of leaving Tuscaloosa without that goose egg in the win column.

Considering that Alabama is a contender for the national title and UNT is a contender for, well, nothing much, I expect Alabama to win by a wide margin.

#6 Stanford at Arizona, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford has had the upper hand lately, but this series has been quite competitive in the last 20 years. Arizona holds a 9–7 edge.

Arizona, which actually has been more successful at Stanford than at home, did beat Stanford the last time they played at Arizona, 43–38 in 2009.

I don't expect history to repeat itself. I expect Stanford to win the game, but I think the margin might be just as close.

#7 Wisconsin at Northern Illinois, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: This will be the fourth time since 1992 that these schools have met, and Wisconsin has won all of the previous three games.

It may be hard to believe now, but Northern Illinois actually enjoyed a period of dominance over Wisconsin, beating the Badgers in 1977, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1988. NIU also got the better of Wisconsin in the early 1970s.

But that's ancient history in this series. I think Wisconsin will make it four in a row, probably by a margin of a couple of touchdowns.

#8 Oklahoma State at Tulsa, 9 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Tulsa has lost four straight to OSU, with its last win coming at home in 1998.

In fact, on the occasions when these teams have played in Tulsa, it's been quite competitive since the mid–1970s. In the last 35 years, Tulsa is 6–4 on its home turf against Oklahoma State (in Stillwater, OSU is 13–0 against Tulsa during the same time period).

I don't expect Tulsa to win — I believe Oklahoma State will win — but I do expect it to be close. Might come down to a field goal.

Idaho at #9 Texas A&M: Idaho has had one winning season in the last decade. The Aggies, meanwhile, appear to be on the upswing.

All things considered, I expect Texas A&M to win the game by close to 30 points.

Washington at #10 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the teams' seventh regular–season meeting since 1967, and Nebraska has won the last three.

That would suggest that the Cornhuskers, who have won at least nine games in each of the last three seasons, should be able to handle Washington, which hasn't won nine or more games in a season in more than a decade.

But Washington actually won the teams' last encounter — in last December's Holiday Bowl. Was that an aberration? Or was it a sign of an impending shift in the times?

I'm inclined to say it was the former. Nebraska should win at home.

Navy at #11 South Carolina, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools last met in 1988 when South Carolina was still an independent. The Gamecocks won that game, 19–8.

South Carolina also won a home game with Navy in 1985, 34–31 — but lost at Annapolis in 1984, 38–21. And South Carolina beat Navy at home in 1982 and 1983.

If Navy wins at South Carolina, it will be the first time that has happened since 1955.

I feel pretty confident in asserting that South Carolina will win.

Missouri State at #12 Oregon: I really don't expect much from Missouri State in this one.

And there really isn't much to say about it.

The Oregon media doesn't seem to have much to say about it. And, when the game is over, I doubt the Missouri State players will be eager to repeat it.

I pick Oregon.

Arkansas State at #13 Virginia Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on FSN: These teams haven't faced each other since the Hispanic Coaches Classic in August of 2002. Virginia Tech won that game, 63–7.

Prior to that, Tech beat ASU 50–0 in 1997 and 34–7 in 1994.

My point is that they don't play each other often, but, when they do, Tech usually wins by a wide margin.

And, unless the Hokies take their eyes off the ball, I expect Virginia Tech to win this one, too — again, by a wide margin.

Troy at #14 Arkansas, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on CSS: The Razorbacks are 3–0 against Troy since 2002, and they have rolled up more than 50 points in each of their first two games of 2011.

Troy should not be overlooked, though. While its football program has only been in Division I–A for 10 years, it defeated a BCS school in its fifth game as a I–A school — and it beat a ranked BCS foe in its fourth season. Troy capped that fourth season with its first–ever bowl appearance and is currently 3–3 in postseason bowls.

A trip to Tuscaloosa, Ala. — Arkansas' first road trip of the season — looms next week, but as long as the Razorbacks remain focused on the task at hand, I think they will win by about three touchdowns.

#15 Michigan State at Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: The buildup for this game is almost sure to focus on the recent death of Bubba Smith, who led Michigan State's defense in the infamous 1966 clash with Notre Dame.

This game won't be #1 vs. #2 like it was 45 years ago, but it is usually exciting, and the Notre Dame coach insists that the Irish are moving in the right direction. That could be dismissed as a coach's bravado, but I think he makes some valid points.

Michigan State has won 10 of the 14 games between the schools since 1997, but more than half of those games have been decided by a touchdown or less.

I think this one will be close, too — and, despite the fact that Notre Dame has stumbled to an 0–2 start, I'm going to predict that Notre Dame will pull off the upset.

Tennessee at #16 Florida, 2:30 p.m. on CBS: Florida has a six–game winning streak in this series and has won 75% of the time since 1991.

I think that says a lot about the current state of both schools' football programs, especially in recent years. Florida has contended for — and won — both team and individual recognition while Tennessee has struggled to break even in most of the last six seasons.

It's rare for any SEC team to dominate another as consistently as Florida has dominated Tennessee — and it is important to remember that Tennessee was a frequent contender for national titles in the 1990s, even when the Volunteers lost to the Gators.

The Volunteers insist they are not intimidated by the fact that Tennessee hasn't beaten Florida since 2004. I believe a victory in this game would signal a genuine turning point for the Tennessee program, but I don't believe that is going to happen. Not in Gainesville, where Florida is 10–2 against Tennessee since 1977.

Florida should win by 10.

#17 Ohio State at Miami (Florida), 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be only the second time these schools have met since their thrilling overtime battle for the national championship in January 2003.

They played in Columbus last year, and OSU prevailed, 36–24.

They didn't have an extensive history before that Fiesta Bowl game in 2003. They met in the 1999 Kickoff Classic, and Miami won that game, 23–12. Before that, their last meeting came when Woody Hayes was still the coach of the Buckeyes.

But this year they are bound by their mutual reputations for being college football's bad boys — and the (arguably) worst of the bad boys, the Hurricanes of Miami, will have the home field advantage.

Sometimes, life doesn't seem fair especially since Ohio State knew before last year's Sugar Bowl that the Buckeyes would be without nearly half a dozen players in the first half of the 2011 season, including one–time Heisman hopeful Terrelle Pryor.

But, even though Ohio State doesn't have Pryor anymore — he went back on his pledge to stay in Columbus for his senior year and jumped to the NFL's Oakland Raiders, the bad boys of pro football — it hardly matters since he would have been serving his five–game suspension, anyway.

I expect the game to be close, but, in the end, I think Ohio State will win the game.

#18 West Virginia at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: West Virginia owns a five–game winning streak against Maryland.

But that's rather long in this series, which usually sees success shift from one side to the other in two– or three–year bursts.

And I'm going to predict that the pendulum will swing back in Maryland's direction. After all, the Terps have won three of their last five home games against West Virginia.

Stephen F. Austin at #19 Baylor: I think these teams haven't met since 1947.

But I doubt that it matters. Even if SFA had a decade's worth of recent Baylor game footage, I doubt that it would alter the outcome. I expect Baylor to win the game.

Florida A&M at #20 South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big East Network: South Florida cruised past Florida A&M the last time they met — in 2005.

I have no reason to think South Florida will not do so again.

#21 Auburn at Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: It might seem to you that this is something of a natural regional rivalry. Well, it seemed that way to me, anyway — until I looked into the history of the series.

And the truth is that this will be only the fifth time these teams have met in the last 40 years — and two of those games were postseason bowls.

There was a time when they played somewhat regularly — in the late 1940s, early 1950s and most of the 1960s — but things were so lopsided in Auburn's favor that I suppose Clemson decided there really was no upside. And, in fact, Clemson hasn't beaten Auburn in more than 60 years.

Will that change this Saturday? I'm inclined to think that it will. Despite its recent success, Auburn is not the team it was last year when it won the national title — and Clemson appears to be a better team than the 6–7 team it was last year. In what may be a mild upset, I take Clemson — by a point or two.

#22 Arizona State at Illinois, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: No matter what happens the rest of this season, Arizona State earned a spot on the 2011 highlight reel with its exciting victory over Missouri last week.

Whatever the Sun Devils may have in mind for their encore probably won't make it, though, simply because the schedule did not bless ASU with a bitter rival or a highly ranked foe this week. Arizona State and Illinois haven't played since 1988 — and the Illini haven't been too accomplished in recent years (this season, they might be best remembered for being the most recent team to defeat Baylor, which they did in last year's Texas Bowl).

I think Arizona State has what it takes to turn back Illinois, but I think it will be close.

Louisiana–Monroe at #23 TCU, 1 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn.: When I was growing up, if you wanted to know how a TCU football team would respond to a loss, you simply looked at its performance the previous weekend.

But that was the old TCU, not the one that went 36–3 in the last three years. The modern TCU responds to losses like its opening–weekend loss at Baylor, by punishing its next opponent — and the Horned Frogs did that against Air Force, which is probably more impressive than it sounds.

Folks of my generation and earlier remember the Air Force squads that habitually struggled to win three or four games a year, but, like TCU, Air Force has enjoyed more success in recent years, winning at least eight games in each of the last four seasons.

Beating Air Force was an accomplishment for TCU. Beating Louisiana–Monroe will not be, but that's who is next on the schedule, and I expect TCU to win by a wide margin.

#24 Texas at UCLA, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: UCLA has beaten Texas the last three times the schools have faced each other.

And some folks in California think the key to a fourth straight win may be the Longhorns' instability at quarterback.

Historically, Bruins fans may have no reason to worry. You have to go back four decades — to 1971 — to find Texas' last victory over UCLA.

Forty years of futility don't go down well in Texas, even as rarely as these schools play, and folks in Austin are probably more interested these days in avoiding a severe wildfire threat, but the Longhorns seem to be intent on rekindling their last experience at the Rose Bowl.

There may be no good reason for doing so, but I'm going to predict that Texas ends that 40–year drought.

Last week: 17–3

Season: 38–5

Friday, September 9, 2011

This Is Worth Another Look

Green Bay rookie Randall Cobb tied an NFL record with his 108–yard kickoff return against the New Orleans Saints last night.

OK, I'm a Packer fan so it stands to reason that I would like this. But if you are a football fan, even a Saints fan, it's worth another look ... or two or three.

For some reason, when I saw that return, I thought of a scene from "Citizen Kane" — when the singing tutor Kane had hired to instruct his wife said, "Some people can sing. Some can't."

The same logic surely must apply to kick returners. Some can. Some can't.

Randall Cobb definitely can.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Seems Like Old Times

This weekend brings a revival of some great rivalries in college football.

Notre Dame and Michigan will face each other this weekend in the latest chapter of a rivalry that goes back to the 19th century, and the Southeastern Conference will be showcasing a couple of important clashes, too.

But Penn State and Alabama has to be the most magical matchup of the weekend.

For some folks, the cup is half empty. Steve Greenberg of The Sporting News complains that it is the only game between two ranked teams, but, after all, that is hardly by design. Schedules are made months, if not years, ahead of time.

What's more, it wouldn't be the only game between ranked teams if not for the fickle nature of early poll voting. Defending national champion Auburn won its opener — unimpressively — and fell from the rankings.

Two games between ranked opponents would be pretty good for this stage of the season — when most conference schedules have not yet begun and most contenders are content to play clearly inferior foes as a way to pad their individual statistics.

Penn State–Alabama, coming one week after the LSU–Oregon and Boise State–Georgia tilts, isn't too shabby for the second weekend in September.

Alabama coach Lou Saban has been respectful of the Nittany Lions. He is 3–3 against Penn State and says he expects a challenge when the Crimson Tide takes the field in Happy Valley.

It may be the only Top 25 matchup this week, but it's not a bad one. Enjoy.

Idle: #1 Oklahoma, #4 Boise State, #7 Texas A&M, #20 Baylor.

Thursday

Arizona at #9 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This was the matchup that concluded both teams' seasons last year — a date in the Alamo Bowl, which Oklahoma State won, 36–10.

Two meetings in the same calendar year is a clear trend in this series. Before that Alamo Bowl, I think you have to go back to FDR's administration to find the last time they met on the gridiron.

But little attention is being paid to it in Stillwater, Okla., where OSU coach Mike Gundy has been emphasizing the Cowboys' long–term future in the Big 12 and the short–term outlook for quarterback Brandon Weeden, who threw three interceptions against Louisiana–Lafayette last week — two of which were returned for touchdowns.

Gundy thinks Weeden will be just fine — and I'm inclined to agree. I expect Oklahoma State to win the game.

Friday

#21 Missouri at Arizona State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: It's been more than 20 years since Missouri and Arizona State played a football game.

They met in a two–year, home–and–away series in 1989 and 1990, with each team winning its home game. Neither team was very good in those days.

They're better now, and I think the game will be better than many people think it will. I'll take Missouri — but by a touchdown or less.

Saturday

Northwestern State at #2 LSU: This won't be the first time the teams have faced each other, but it might as well be. They last met in 1942; LSU won, 40–0.

Before that, they met in 1937. LSU won that one, too, 52–0. Before that, they played in 1926. LSU won that one as well, 47–0. LSU also won in 1925 (27–0), 1924 (40–0), 1923 (40–0), 1922 (13–0), 1921 (78–0) and 1920 (34–0). LSU also won in 1911 (46–0).

Like the game this Saturday, all those other games were played in Baton Rouge. And I am certain that, like all those other times, LSU will win. The only question is, will Northwestern State finally score?

#3 Alabama at #23 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's funny how things change over the years.

When I was growing up, Alabama–Penn State was a marquee matchup: the Bear vs. JoePa, both teams in the Top 10 if not the Top 5, probably a Heisman candidate or two.

It's still a big–name game, but it has lost some of its luster. When I was growing up, for example, you never saw those two teams on the same field unless they were playing in a bowl game (and those bowl dates were pretty rare).

A couple of years before Bear Bryant retired (and then died), Alabama and Penn State started playing each other during the regular season, and they continued to do so until 1990 — but they didn't meet again until last season, when Penn State visited the defending national champion Crimson Tide and got walloped, 24–3.

I think both teams are overrated, but Alabama deserves to be in the Top 10. I'm not sure Penn State belongs in the Top 25. And I'll pick Alabama to win.

Charleston Southern at #5 Florida State, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: I don't think these schools have a history.

But does it matter? I expect Florida State to win handily.

#6 Stanford at Duke, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: It's been nearly 40 years since Duke hosted Stanford in a football game.

The schools met in 1971 and 1972, just after the only Heisman Trophy winner in Stanford history (quarterback Jim Plunkett) made his professional debut. Today, Stanford has what may be its second Heisman–winning quarterback in Andrew Luck.

Could that be a lucky sign for Stanford? Could be. I'll take Stanford.

Oregon State at #8 Wisconsin: Oregon State has played some quality nonconference opposition in recent years — TCU and Boise State last year, Cincinnati and BYU in 2009, Utah in 2008, not to mention Oregon and Southern Cal darn near every year.

And Oregon State usually gives as good as it gets — but rarely do the Beavers win those games. And, frankly, I think the Badgers have more than they need to win this one — including their typically boisterous home crowd. I'll take Wisconsin.

Fresno State at #10 Nebraska, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Fresno State tends to field a competitive team, but let's be candid here.

When you're playing at Nebraska, you're playing on a big–time stage, and Fresno doesn't usually win those. Sometimes, FSU comes close, but I don't expect that to happen this time. I'll go with Nebraska.

#11 Virginia Tech at East Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This will be the fifth straight year these schools have played each other in football — and East Carolina did win one, in 2008 when they opened the season in Charlotte, N.C.

But Virginia Tech has won the last two meetings and I suspect the Hokies will win this one, too.

#12 South Carolina at Georgia, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: South Carolina is only 6–13 against Georgia since joining the Southeastern Conference in 1992.

But, after advancing to their first SEC Championship game last season, the Gamecocks (who beat Georgia at home last year) appear to be on the brink of their second win at Georgia in the last 10 years.

I believe South Carolina will win the game — but narrowly.

Nevada at #13 Oregon, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FX: These schools have never been regular opponents, but this meeting will end an eight–year drought.

Their last meeting was on Sept. 6, 2003, on Oregon's turf, the same place where they will play this Saturday. Oregon won that one, by the way, 31–23. Prior to that, the schools opened the 2000 season (again, on Oregon's field), and the Ducks prevailed that time, too, 36–7.

They met the year before that, in 1999, and Oregon recorded what is probably the most lopsided win in the series' history — 72–10.

I think Oregon will win this time, too, but not by 62 points — probably more like 10.

New Mexico at #14 Arkansas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams haven't faced each other since 1987, when Arkansas beat a winless New Mexico squad in Little Rock, the same place they will meet on Saturday.

They played in Little Rock in 1983 — and Arkansas won that one, too.

And, as nearly as I can tell, that's been it for the series. Not much to go on.

But here is something that is worth remembering: Arkansas doesn't play as many games in Little Rock as it did when I was growing up, but, with the exception of a couple of losses to LSU, Arkansas hasn't lost in Little Rock since 1997, and it hasn't lost a nonconference game there since 1993.

Arkansas should win by a wide margin.

Toledo at #15 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: These schools have met twice before — in 1998 and 2009 — and Toledo has yet to score on the Buckeyes.

I expect Ohio State to win by at least three touchdowns — and I haven't a clue whether Toledo will finally score.

#16 Mississippi State at Auburn, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: There have been times in the history of this series when Mississippi State has held the upper hand, but not in the first decade of the 21st century.

Auburn won nine of the last 10 meetings (the exception was 2007), but many people think that period of dominance may be about to end. MSU has been on the rise, and observers felt all along that Auburn would drop off after losing Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton to the NFL — but I don't think anyone expected Utah State to take Auburn to the wire in the opener.

That suggests to me that Auburn's 16–game winning streak is in jeopardy. The Tigers' stay in the Top 25 has already ended, and I'll take Mississippi State to prevail.

Florida Atlantic at #17 Michigan State: This will be the third time these teams have met since 2008.

Michigan State won the first two games, and I fully expect the Spartans to win this time, by four or five touchdowns.

UAB at #18 Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSSouth: On Aug. 31, 2002, UAB and Florida met in the season opener, and Florida roared to a 51–3 victory.

Florida won a couple of national titles and a Heisman Trophy in the years that followed. UAB had one winning season.

I expect Florida to win.

Norfolk State at #19 West Virginia, noon (Central) on Big East Network: There really isn't much to say about this game — except that something is wrong if West Virginia doesn't beat Norfolk State by about five touchdowns.

Ball State at #22 South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big East Network: Ball State is hardly a football powerhouse, having won more games than it lost only five times in the last 20 years.

South Florida, however, may well be an emerging powerhouse.

Granted, beating Notre Dame doesn't necessarily qualify as the ultimate test for a program — but it was when Lou Holtz, who happens to be the father of South Florida's coach, was running the show in South Bend.

Anyway, while Notre Dame probably does not deserve to be in the rankings, South Florida probably does — and I expect South Florida to defeat Ball State by about 20 points.

Brigham Young at #24 Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools haven't faced each other since the waning days of the Reagan administration.

BYU was considered something of a powerhouse in those days; Texas, not so much. Anyway, BYU beat UT in back–back seasons in 1987 and 1988.

Things are a bit different now. Texas comes into this game with a Top 25 ranking and BYU comes into it unranked so I suppose the roles have been reversed — but BYU got some support in the latest poll and could catapult into the rankings by knocking off the Longhorns.

I think that is possible because I believe that Texas, which lost seven of its last nine games in 2010, is overrated — and BYU is the kind of team that could expose the Longhorns for what they are. You can't really learn anything from a Texas squad that opened the season with a home win over Rice.

This week's game is a much greater test, and I think Brigham Young will pass it.

#25 TCU at Air Force, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: TCU has won five of six games with Air Force since they became conference rivals in 2005.

And TCU, which was 36–3 from 2008 to 2010, is smarting from its loss to Baylor last week.

As I have mentioned here before, neither school was very strong when I was growing up. But times have changed, and TCU hasn't lost back–to–back games since September 2007.

TCU has struggled in its games at Air Force. The Frogs won a 20–17 battle in 2009 and lost by the same score in 2007. I expect another close one, but I'll pick TCU to prevail.

Last week: 21–2

Season: 21–2

Tomato Cans

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

The Return of the Red River Rivalry

Sunday, October 2, 2011

An Awesome Comeback

Saturday, October 1, 2011

A Very Special Moment

An Unlikely Home Run King

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Conference Competition Is Under Way

Friday, September 23, 2011

Road Test 2: The Sequel

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

OU, Florida State Seek Legitimacy

Friday, September 9, 2011

This Is Worth Another Look

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Seems Like Old Times

Vince Lombardi

John Wooden

Muhammad Ali

Bum Phillips

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