Hall of Fame, ESPN Mark Milestones

On this day in 1963, pro football's Hall of Fame opened its doors in Canton, Ohio.

There were 17 charter inductees. All of them are dead now. The last survivor, Sammy Baugh, died at the age of 94 last December.

According to the Hall of Fame's website, there are 253 members of the Hall of Fame. And the living Hall of Famer who has been a member the longest is Steve Van Buren (class of 1965). A halfback who played his college ball at LSU and then played his pro ball for the Philadelphia Eagles in the 1940s, Van Buren is now in his late 80s.

It was probably coincidental, but on this day in 1979, ESPN (an acronym for the Entertainment and Sports Programming Network) was launched.

Over the years, ESPN has evolved considerably. These days, it carries live broadcasts of popular mainstream sports. Today, in fact, ESPN will broadcast a couple of college football games — Cincinnati at Rutgers (3 p.m. Central) and Miami at Florida State (7 p.m. Central). The network also televises pro football, baseball and basketball games.

Initially, though, ESPN aired a lot of stuff that wasn't part of mainstream programming — like Australian Rules Football, Davis Cup tennis, pro wrestling, boxing and some college football and basketball games. And it didn't show exclusively sports programming.

But things changed in the late 1980s. ESPN gradually added NFL and college football and major league baseball to its lineup. Today, it provides live coverage of such mainstream sports on nearly a daily basis.

One thing that hasn't changed is "SportsCenter," the network's flagship program. It aired once a day originally — now it is shown as many as a dozen times in a single day. A noteworthy exception was Sept. 11, 2001, when it interrupted its regular schedule to show coverage of the terrorist attacks.

The network considered not airing "SportsCenter" that day, but eventually it did air that evening, reporting the cancellations of sports events that had been announced up to that time.

Most, if not all, of the inductees into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in the last decade or so appeared on ESPN at least once. They would probably tell you their lives would have been different — to a certain extent — if ESPN had not existed.

Most of the non–athletes of the world would probably say the same thing.

College Hijinx

This weekend has been the start of the college football season.

And, as usual, there have been some astonishing moments.

Things appear to be a little messy in the Big Ten, with Ohio State and Iowa stumbling to narrow victories on the first Saturday.

Last Thursday, fourteenth–ranked Boise State turned back #16 Oregon for the second consecutive year.

Yesterday, ninth–ranked Oklahoma State turned back #13 Georgia. That one surprised me a bit.

In the only game that matched two teams in the Top 10, #5 Alabama outlasted #7 Virginia Tech. I guess what surprised me about that one was the margin. 'Bama will be a force to reckon with this year.

The higher–ranked team in all three of those games won so I presume they met the expectations of the sportswriters who participated in the poll.

The real surprise took place about 20 miles west of where I live — at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium. The third–ranked Oklahoma Sooners opened the season against #20 Brigham Young.

The Sooners lost the game — and they may have lost Heisman Trophy–winning quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford injured his shoulder, and it is unclear how long he will be out of action.

Now, I suppose Arlington was considered a neutral site, but, geographically, Arlington is about 180 miles from the OU campus. It's more than 950 miles from the BYU campus. Dallas is a convenient destination for Labor Day weekend if you go to school in Norman. It's a different matter if you go to school in another time zone — in Provo, Utah.

I didn't watch most of the game, I was watching Alabama–Virginia Tech, but I was e–mailing a friend of mine who was watching the OU game. He said it was sloppy, loaded with penalties. I watched the last few minutes, and I concluded that OU needs to fall to at least 13th in the polls — not just because the Sooners lost but because they lack the depth one expects from a third–ranked team when their quarterback goes down.

If Bradford has to sit out the month of September, Oklahoma may be able to get around its apparent weakness at quarterback in the next couple of weeks, when the Sooners play Idaho State and Tulsa. After that, they've got the week of Sept. 26 off. But after that, OU has to play the up–and–coming Miami Hurricanes on Oct. 3, then the Sooners dive into Big 12 play against Baylor.

The Bears have been improving, and they're coming off a victory over Wake Forest, another program that has been lightly regarded in football in the past but has been taking positive steps in recent years. Baylor has this weekend off, then the Bears play three straight home games — against Connecticut, Northwestern State and Kent State — before the Bears travel to Norman to face OU.

This prospect may seem incredible to college football fans, but OU might have to take on an unbeaten Baylor team — with Texas waiting for the Sooners the following week. And it doesn't get any easier for the Sooners after that with games against Nebraska, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma fans better be praying that Bradford has a short–term injury.

College Kickoff

Labor Day weekend is upon us, and that means the start of the 2009 college football season.

Things actually get started tonight with a handful of games. The most interesting game on today's schedule is

• Oregon at Boise State.
  
  You can watch this game on ESPN starting at 9:15 p.m. (Central). Oregon finished 10–3 last year, ranked in the top 10. The Ducks won the Holiday Bowl over Oklahoma State, 42–31. But one of the Ducks' losses was to Boise State, in the fourth game of the season.
  
  That was the closest that Boise State came to losing all season — until the Broncos lost the Poinsettia Bowl to TCU, 17–16. Because of that one–point defeat, Boise State finished the season ranked 11th in the Associated Press poll, 13th in the coaches' poll.
  
  I'm going to pick the Broncos to win, 24–23, simply because they're playing at home — and also because Oregon has a new coach. He may turn out to be the best coach Oregon has ever had, but I think the team will need a little time to adjust to his style.

Other games being played tonight include South Carolina at North Carolina State, Western Illinois at Sam Houston State and North Texas at Ball State.

There are a few noteworthy games on Saturday:

• Georgia at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC.
  
  Georgia went 10–3 last season. The Bulldogs finished 13th in the AP poll, 10th in the coaches' poll after beating Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl.
  
  OSU was 9–4 last year. The Cowboys lost their last two games — their regular–season finale to in–state rival Oklahoma and a Holiday Bowl date with Oregon — but they did have their moments during the regular season. They beat second–ranked and previously unbeaten Missouri and they narrowly lost on the road to top–ranked Texas.
  
  Georgia and Oklahoma State did not play each other last year, but I'm going to pick Georgia by a score of 31–20. The Bulldogs are more accustomed to the spotlight than the Cowboys are.


• Brigham Young vs. Oklahoma at Dallas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN.
  
  Oklahoma finished fifth in the nation last season after losing the national championship game to Florida. The Sooners were 12–2.
  
  BYU was 10–3 overall last year, finishing 25th in AP and 21st in the coaches' poll. The Cougars lost the Las Vegas Bowl to Arizona.
  
  Most people expect the Sooners to contend for the Big 12 title again. Their opener will be played at a "neutral" site — the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. But that is considerably closer to the OU campus than to the BYU campus. I expect far more Sooner fans to be on hand than Cougar fans, and the Sooner football program is stronger, anyway. So I will pick Oklahoma to win, 35–17.


• Alabama vs. Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC.
  
  Alabama is ranked fifth in ESPN's preseason power rankings, Virginia Tech is ranked seventh. Clearly, great things are expected from both teams. The Crimson Tide finished sixth in the nation with a 12–2 record last year, but both losses came in the postseason — in the SEC championship game to Florida and in the Sugar Bowl to Utah. The Hokies went 10–4 and beat Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. They were ranked 15th in the AP poll, 14th in the coaches' poll.
  
  Alabama has some holes to fill, but, being Alabama, my guess is that the Crimson Tide will find a way. And I predict they will find a way to win their primetime showdown with Virginia Tech, too. I predict Alabama 20, Virginia Tech 14.

My NFL Predictions

This afternoon, the temperature in Dallas is about 88° with a touch of a breeze. In some places, that probably seems pretty warm, but, in Dallas in August, it's like a breath of autumn. It's been the kind of day we normally don't see until late September or early October.

So I'm taking this opportunity to predict how things will turn out in the National Football League — even though the regular season doesn't start until the Titans play the Steelers on Thursday, Sept. 10.

Let's start with the NFC:

• The East is of most interest to football fans around here, since that is the division in which the Cowboys compete. Dallas really blew it at the end of the last regular season and didn't even make the playoffs after being many fans' preseason pick to play in the Super Bowl.
  
  I'm not a Cowboys fan, but I have to pick someone to win the East so I'll pick last year's division winner, the New York Giants. Even so, I wouldn't be surprised to see Philadelphia come on strong. The Eagles, who clinched a wild–card spot with their season–ending rout of the Cowboys, could be deeper at the quarterback position, with Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, than any other team in the division, but Vick still has a few things to prove after a two–year layoff.


• In the North, Minnesota fans think the acquisition of Brett Favre is the missing piece in their playoff puzzle. I'm not so sure about that — Favre will turn 40 in October — but I'm going to pick the Vikings to repeat as division champs — mainly from lack of apparent competition. Still, it's going to be interesting to see what happens when they play Green Bay.
  
  Yes, I know that great things are expected from Jay Cutler in Chicago and rookie Matt Stafford in Detroit, but I'm not convinced that either one will be ready to emerge as the NFL's next great quarterback this season. Cutler has some talent around him in Chicago, but he needs to make the adjustment to his new team and its system first.
  
  And Stafford will take the helm of the NFL's first–ever 0–16 team — a daunting assignment. Eventually, he may lead the Lions back to the playoffs — but it won't be in 2009.


• In the South, Carolina won the division last year, but Atlanta was competitive enough to win a wild–card berth and Tampa Bay might well have won the division if not for a season–ending four–game losing streak.
  
  Clearly, the South was wide open last year. Will it be that competitive this year? It might be. It seems to me there are a lot of intangibles in the NFC South this year. Carolina probably has the most solid coach in John Fox. Atlanta may have the most promising young quarterback in Matt Ryan. Tampa Bay has an unproven coach and a quarterback (Byron Leftwich) who would probably like to make folks forget about his years in Jacksonville. New Orleans scored more points than any team in the division last year but brought up the rear in the standings, finishing 8–8 after giving up more points than anyone else in the division.
  
  I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Atlanta.


• In the West, many people may be picking the Arizona Cardinals to repeat last year's astonishing Super Bowl run.
  
  But lots of folks tend to forget that Arizona was only 9–7 in the regular season last year — worst record of the four division champs.
  
  And most of the Cardinals are not accustomed to the spotlight that shines on Super Bowl teams. They're going to be under a lot of pressure, and I'm not sure they will be able to live up to it.
  
  I might have been inclined to pick Seattle, but the Seahawks are in a bit of a transition. The 10–year Mike Holmgren era ended last season, and I think it is going to take awhile for Seattle to be competitive again.
  
  So I'm going to pick the team that finished second in the West last year, the San Francisco 49ers. I know, it's been awhile since the 49ers were genuine contenders, but I think they might be positioned pretty well this season. Anyway, we might get a good idea if San Francisco is going to be ready for prime time pretty early. The 49ers play the Cardinals on Opening Day.
  
  The two teams opened the season against each other last year, too, and the Cardinals won by 10. If the 49ers had won that game, they would have tied Arizona for the division title. If they had won that game and the rematch on Nov. 10, they would have won the division outright.

As for the wild–card teams, I'll pick Green Bay (as long as the defense is improved) and Dallas.

And now, let's look at the AFC:

• In the East, I think most people consider it New England Patriots territory, even though the Patriots didn't make the playoffs last year. And I'm inclined to agree — as long as quarterback Tom Brady is able to play.
  
  Even without Brady last season, the Pats shared the division title with Miami and lost a wild–card spot on a tiebreaker. This year, I think they will win the division and return to the playoffs.


• In the North, I think Pittsburgh will repeat as division champs, but I think they will have a tough fight with Baltimore. The outcome is likely to be the same — Steelers win the division, Ravens take a wild–card slot.
  
  Neither Cincinnati nor Cleveland look ready to compete. That frees Cleveland to start focusing its attention on the Cavaliers. I don't know what Cincinnati is going to do.


• In the South, I'm going to pick Peyton Manning and the Colts. Tennessee might give them a run for awhile, but I don't think the Titans will repeat as division champs.
  
  Last October, Tennessee beat Indianapolis, 31–21. The Colts won the rematch in late December, 23–0. If the Colts had swept the series, they would have won the division. As it was, the Colts grabbed a wild–card berth.
  
  Tennessee might grab the other wild–card slot. I'll get to that in a minute.


• In the West, I'm going to pick the San Diego Chargers. I know they had a miserable regular season last year (8–8) and barely got into the playoffs. But that is a sign of just how weak the West is.
  
  Denver shared the division, but, I think, the Broncos will be weaker, with a new coach and a new quarterback. I think 2009 will be a learning experience for them.
  
  Oakland and Kansas City have their moments, but neither of them are ready to compete. So, by default, I'm picking the Chargers.

Now, that leaves me with the other wild–card berth in the AFC. I think it could come down to Tennessee and Miami. As it turns out, the two teams will face each other in the 15th week. They will play on the Sunday before Christmas at Nashville's LP Field.

I'm going to pick the Dolphins to win in what will probably be an upset. Then, when the regular season is over, Miami will have the tiebreaker if needed. One way or the other, I think that game on Dec. 20 will be significant.

How about the playoffs? Well, in the NFC, I'm going to say that Green Bay will play at San Francisco and Dallas will play at Atlanta in the wild–card round. I pick the Packers over the 49ers and the Falcons over the Cowboys. The next week, Green Bay travels to Minnesota and Atlanta travels to New York. I'll take the Giants and the Vikings. Then, in the title game, the Giants defeat the Vikings.

In the AFC, I predict that Miami will play at Pittsburgh and Baltimore will play at San Diego in the first round. I predict the Steelers and Ravens will win. In the next round, Baltimore travels to New England and Pittsburgh travels to Indianapolis. I'll pick both home teams to prevail, with the Colts defeating the Patriots in the title game.

That sets up the long–awaited All–Manning Super Bowl — Eli with the Giants, Peyton with the Colts. I'll pick older brother Peyton to win his second Super Bowl ring.

Do you suppose Daddy Archie will come to the game wearing a baseball cap that has Giants on one side and Colts on the other?

Baseball's Home Stretch

We are a week away from Labor Day. The major league baseball season runs through the first weekend in October, which means that a little more than a month is left.

I made my predictions back in late March, and, periodically, I've been checking to see how they were holding up. Well, this will be my last check before the playoffs begin in October.

Let's look at the National League first:

• In the East, I picked the defending world champion Philadelphia Phillies to repeat as division champs, and I predicted they would have a record of 90–72. Today, the Phillies lead their division by seven games. To match the record I predicted, they wouldn't even need to win half of their remaining games. A 16–19 record would do it.


• In the Central, I picked St. Louis to win the division with a record of 95–67. The Cardinals have surged to a 10–game lead, after trailing through much of the first half of the season, but they will need an 18–12 record the rest of the way to meet my prediction.


• In the West, I predicted the Los Angeles Dodgers would prevail. They shot out to a big lead early in the season, and they have remained in control of their division, but they've lost a little ground since the All–Star break. Even so, they have a 5½–game lead.
  
  I predicted the Dodgers would finish the regular season with a record of 87–75, and, unless they experience a total meltdown in September, they should be able to meet that, if not exceed it. They've got the best record in the National League, and they only need to go 9–22 to match the record I forecast.

So my picks to win the division titles appear to be holding up, but my wild–card pick, the New York Mets, seems to be in trouble. The Mets are 13 games under .500.

Actually, the two top contenders for the NL wild card spot, Colorado and San Francisco, are playing each other today. As I write this, the Rockies have a 4–1 lead over the Giants in the sixth inning. With a month left in the season, that doesn't really mean much — except from the standpoint of momentum.

Now, let's take a look at the American League:

• In the East, I predicted Boston would win the division with a record of 96–66. The Red Sox led their division early in the season, but they've been slumping this summer and the rival New York Yankees have taken a six–game lead. Boston would need a 20–12 record the rest of the way to match my prediction. Along the way, they would need the Yankees to do no better than go 13–19.
  
  It looks like the Sox will need some help from other teams if they're going to catch the Yanks. The two teams meet only three more times (in New York) the last weekend of September.


• In the Central, I predicted that Minnesota would win the division with a record of 87–75. Currently, the Twins are second in their division, 4½ games behind Detroit.
  
  I predicted the Twins would go 87–75, but that's going to be a tall order. Minnesota would have to go 22–10 the rest of the way to accomplish that. It sounds like a longshot, but they've got six games left with the Tigers in September so winning the division still is possible.


• In the West, I picked the Los Angeles Angels to win their division with a 98–64 record. The Angels stumbled early in the season, but they've seized control of the division in the last couple of months. Even so, they would need to go 21–12 to match my prediction. But they have a five–game lead. The West doesn't appear to be a lock for the Angels — not yet — but I like their chances.

The top two contenders for the wild card in the American League are Boston and Texas. They aren't scheduled to face each other again during the regular season so the Red Sox need to make their current 3½–game advantage over the Rangers hold up.

I picked the Yankees to win the wild card so if Boston takes it instead and the Yankees win the division, that's a reversal of my prediction but both teams will still qualify for the playoffs. If everything else remains the way it is right now, that would mean that six of the eight teams I predicted would be in the playoffs actually will be there.

I Still Support the Ban on Charlie Hustle

It was 20 years ago today that Major League Baseball Commissioner Bart Giamatti banned Pete Rose from baseball for gambling.

There were many great baseball players when I was growing up. I've heard some people argue that Rose was the best of that era, but that's a tough case to make.

Even so, he was a great player. And I assumed, as did many other people, that he eventually would claim his spot in baseball's Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y.

Rose initially denied betting on the Cincinnati Reds, the team for which he played for many seasons and later served as manager. But he finally admitted publicly, in his 2004 autobiography, that he gambled on the Reds but never gambled against the team.

That is a distinction that Rose's supporters have latched on as justification for lifting the lifetime ban on Rose and permitting him to be eligible for the Hall of Fame.

I believe it is exactly the opposite.

As manager of the Reds, Rose was in a position to make decisions that could jeopardize the integrity of the game. But, even when he finally admitted gambling on his own team, he did so in a book. He never stood up and spoke the words, never answered questions truthfully in public. He remained defiant, even when admitting his own wrongdoing.

I believe the evidence against Rose — including his own, albeit long delayed, confession — is considerably stronger than the evidence against "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, who was banned from baseball along with his teammates on the 1919 Chicago "Black Sox" for throwing the World Series.

When Giamatti banned Rose, I said I would favor lifting the ban only when Jackson's ban was lifted. In the 1919 World Series, Jackson set a record for hits in a World Series (12) and hit .375. He committed no errors in the field. He did acknowledge receiving $5,000 of a promised $20,000 bribe, but there is no evidence that he ever did anything in a game to help his team lose.

The case against Jackson is not clear cut. The case against Rose is.

Jayson Stark writes, for ESPN.com, that Rose made his reinstatement impossible because he "could never bring himself to do what seemed so obvious."

I agree that it is a sad story. Rose, now 68, "has lived two decades in purgatory," writes Stark. But he brought it on himself.

Predicting the SEC

In most respects, I guess my prediction for the Southeastern Conference is not too surprising.

I'm picking Florida to win the SEC and play for a second consecutive national championship. With 18 starters returning, including a former Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, I don't see how anyone can pick against the Gators in the SEC. But I'm not convinced that they will win a second straight national championship. It's awful tough to repeat.

Likewise, it seems to me to be a no–brainer to pick Georgia to finish second in the SEC East. The Bulldogs went 10–3 last year and finished ranked 13th in the AP and Coaches' polls. And, in the history of Georgia football, only one other coach has a better winning percentage than Mark Richt — and he coached one season in the 19th century.

The rest of the SEC East looks pretty dismal to me. Normally, I would expect Tennessee to be competitive. But the Volunteers went 5–7 last season and they have a new coach (Lane Kiffin). The Vols have a winning tradition — second among SEC schools, ninth nationally — and an enviable bowl record — tied for third in bowl appearances, fourth in bowl victories — so I expect Tennessee to resume its winning ways in the near future. But not this year.

The SEC West gives me a challenge — and not just because I am a graduate of the University of Arkansas.

Most people seem to pick Ole Miss and Alabama to battle it out, even though LSU is the team that has enjoyed the most success in recent years.

Predictions I've seen forecast Ole Miss to be Florida's foe for the SEC title, but I'm going to pick Alabama to win the West. And I pick LSU to finish second. Ole Miss will be good, and as a Razorback fan, I know how good Houston Nutt is as coach. He was at Arkansas for 10 years before moving on to Ole Miss. But I'm expecting Ole Miss to drop off a little from its 9–4 finish last season.

Anyway, here is my prediction in the SEC:

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East

1. Florida


2. Georgia


3. Tennessee


4. South Carolina


5. Kentucky


6. Vanderbilt

West

1. Alabama


2. LSU


3. Ole Miss


4. Arkansas


5. Auburn


6. Mississippi State

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Sure Enough ...

No sooner had I written about the possibility of Brett Favre signing with Minnesota ...

Well, he did it. Today. I'm sure the TV crews will be on hand for his return to Green Bay with the Vikings.

Of course, this is nothing new. He's done this before.

Judd Zulgad reports, in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, that it was "now or never." I'm not sure "never" is in Favre's vocabulary.

But it might be after he faces some of the defensive players in the NFC North this fall. Especially the ones in Green Bay.

Well, I don't wish anything bad for Favre. I've been a Packer fan most of my life, and I will always appreciate what Favre did for my team. When the Packers play the Vikings, I will pull for the Packers, as always. But I will enjoy watching Favre do what he does on a football field. I can't deny that. I have enjoyed watching him play football for a long time now.

It's hard not to enjoy watching him play. And it's hard not to be thankful that he will be playing for one more season.

But I agree with one of my favorite sportswriters, Peter King of Sports Illustrated, who says it is a mistake.

And even if you are a diehard Brett Favre fan who only cares about seeing him play and doesn't particularly care which team he plays for, you have to agree that there is some sense behind King's words: "I'd have waited until [quarterback] Sage Rosenfels struggled — if he struggled — and then made the call to Favre. By doing it now, [head coach Brad] Childress loses Rosenfels and [quarterback] Tarvaris Jackson; how can they ever trust anything he says now?"

I'm with him on that one. I think Childress has sown the seeds of dissension — and, at the age of 40, it is far from certain that Favre can hold up for the entire season. That "could come back to haunt him if Favre's body breaks down," King writes.

I'm with King all the way. As I say, I don't wish for anything bad to happen to Favre, but I was 40 once and I know my body couldn't do the things it could do when I was 25. And I am certainly not an athlete. It's bound to be more pronounced with them.

And we all saw Favre's December collapse last year. If that happens again, how much confidence will the other QBs on the Minnesota roster have when they're called upon to take over for the team's alleged savior?

I think Minnesota sold its soul for a chance to win a Super Bowl with a 40–year–old quarterback calling the signals. Maybe it will work out. But my hunch is that it won't.

I agree with Peter King. I think it is a mistake.

Please, Not Again ...

Jay Glazer reports, at FOXSports.com, that Brett Favre's decision to stay retired is not a done deal.

---

"After visiting the Vikings for two days, I am convinced — positively convinced — that Brett Favre will soon have talks with the Vikings to return to the team and could be joining them for this season after all. If my instincts are correct, all those purple Favre jerseys will have a home on Minnesota store shelves."

---

He admits that his visit to the Vikings' camp occurred "before Sage Rosenfels lit up the Colts in the preseason opener to the tune of 10–of–13 passing for 91 yards. And if Rosenfels can continue like this, he could squash this prediction as the preseason continues."

But he expresses — with a certain amount of confidence — his belief that Favre soon will be a Viking. And he offers a compelling case:

• Exhibit A) Acceptance within the team that it's pretty much already done.


• Exhibit B) Favre has not closed the door on his decision.


• Exhibit C) Best available option.


• Exhibit D) Favre hates camp.

As I say, Glazer acknowledges that a continued strong performance by Sage Rosenfels could put the kibosh on this idea.

And the flip side, for me, is that I've seen this movie before. I have rarely seen a professional athlete who was as reluctant to accept the end of his career as Favre has been, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him change his mind again before the season starts.

I do believe some of the things I have read about Favre — in particular, that he wants to go out with a Super Bowl appearance and that he felt robbed of that when the Packers lost the 2007 NFC title game to the Giants. I'm not sure if I agree with some of the rhetoric I have heard and read from Minnesota partisans that Favre is the "missing piece" for the Vikings' Super Bowl hopes — perhaps, if we were talking about the 30–year–old version of Favre, that would be true, but the 40–year–old version?

I'll wait and see what happens with Favre. If he is as smart as I think he is, he will stay retired and mostly injury–free.

But, in the last couple of years, Favre has reminded me more and more of something Bill Cosby said on a record I used to listen to when I was a kid. "Never say that things can't get any worse," Cosby cautioned his listeners, "because that is when the gremlins say, 'Worse!' "

If there is one thing I have learned about Brett Favre, it is to never say "never."

Vick's 'Second Chance'

Quarterback Michael Vick speaks of how "everybody deserves a second chance." And the Philadelphia Eagles have given him one.

You might say the Eagles have been down this road before. After he discredited himself in San Francisco, Terrell Owens was given a second chance by the Eagles. He helped Philadelphia finally get to a Super Bowl, but he turned out to be the same clubhouse poison he had been with the 49ers and he moved on to Dallas, where the pattern was repeated and he now finds himself playing for the Buffalo Bills.

Vick, who spent nearly two years in prison after his conviction on felony dogfighting charges, doesn't seem to be the same sort of person that Owens was. He doesn't strike me as a cancerous influence on the team, but it remains to be seen if two years away from the game have robbed him of the talents that impressed pro football fans.

Like Owens, Vick was the beneficiary of the generosity of quarterback Donovan McNabb. And, in many ways, it seems to me McNabb is being even more generous this time. Owens stabbed him in the back when he left the Eagles as his "thank you" — a pattern he repeated when he left Dallas.

McNabb could hardly be blamed for being hesitant to go out on another limb, but he isn't that sort of guy.

For that matter, Vick isn't the same kind of guy as Owens.

Vick seems more humble and, even though he plays the same position as McNabb, he says that "I fully understand that playing football in the NFL is a privilege, not a right, and I am truly thankful for [the] opportunity I have been given."

He won't be allowed to play in regular season games until October. but he says he isn't concerned about playing time right now. And that is probably just fine with McNabb, who, at 32, presumably realizes that age and recent injuries are catching up to him and his career in pro football is finite. Vick, 29, is not that much younger than McNabb, but if his skills are not diminished and he demonstrates that he truly wants to make the most of his second chance, he will be positioned to take over when McNabb's days with the Eagles are finished.

Ross Tucker worries that a quarterback controversy will be brewing in Philadelphia. And it is hard to argue with his logic. He says signing Vick was a mistake.

But Tucker's colleague, SI's Peter King, feels Vick and the Eagles are a near–perfect match, but not everyone in Philadelphia is sold.

"Philadelphia is a city of dog lovers and, most particularly, pit bull lovers," Susan Cosby, the Pennsylvania Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals' chief executive officer, said. "To root for someone who participated in the hanging, drowning, electrocution and shooting of dogs will be impossible for many, no matter how much we would all like to see the Eagles go all the way."

If Vick is wise, he will use the first month of the regular season to work to win over those who see him not as a talented football player but as an animal abuser.

Well, persuading the doubters always was going to be a significant part of his rehabilitation no matter where he went.