The Challenge of Being Preseason Number One

Mark Schlabach of ESPN points out that the team that is ranked #1 in the preseason poll usually doesn't win the national championship.

The only exception in recent years has been Southern California in 2004 — and USC, as we all learned, had to cheat to do it.

It wasn't always that way. In the 1970s, as I recall, the preseason polls frequently were right — but not always. I had my own experience with that. I grew up in Arkansas, as I have said here before, and the Razorbacks shocked just about everyone in Lou Holtz's first year at the helm, going 10–1 in the regular season and thrashing heavily favored Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, 31–6. They finished #3 in the nation.

That definitely made some people sit up and take notice. The next year, 1978, the Razorbacks were ranked #1 when the season began, but they stumbled early and never lived up to the hype.

That might not happen with this year's top–ranked preseason squad, Oklahoma. The Sooners were 12–2 last year and won 80% of their games against ranked teams. They have appeared in more than one–third of the last 11 national championship games.

They could live up to the hype.

If they do, though, they will be tested. Four of the games on their schedule are against teams currently ranked in the preseason Top 25 — Florida State, Missouri, Texas &M and Oklahoma State — and who knows what will happen with the University of Texas before the Longhorns and the Sooners square off in their traditional October brawl?

Personally, I'm not convinced that the Sooners will win it all.

Perhaps it is my bias for the Southeastern Conference — which is, I believe, justified by the fact that the SEC champion has won the national championship for the last five years — but I believe the SEC's champion will play for the national title again.

I am not sold, however, on the idea that it will be either Alabama or LSU, both of whom are in the preseason Top 5.

Alabama, of course, won it all year before last — but the Crimson Tide has lost its Heisman Trophy–winning running back and its starting quarterback — and you don't just replace talent like that. Alabama is good but overrated and may struggle with a schedule that has five foes who are in the preseason Top 25 and at least two others who might find themselves in the Top 25 before September is over.

LSU is also talented, but its schedule is, if anything, tougher. The Tigers open the season against #3 Oregon, then must face five Top 25 opponents — and that could be six if Tennessee upsets Florida on Sept. 17.

Actually, the rap on the SEC is that there are so many good teams every year — which is true — that whoever wins it all is likely to have been eliminated from national championship consideration because it lost one or two nailbiters to equally talented SEC rivals.

But that, however, has not been true. If it had, SEC teams would not have won five straight national titles. Someone always emerges from the pack. Sometimes it is the team that was expected to excel, and sometimes it is a surprise, but someone always gets the early momentum and most of the breaks.

That will end eventually — as everything does. But not yet. And perhaps not this season.

And my sincere guess is that it could be any one of maybe half a dozen SEC teams. Four different schools have won SEC and national championships in the last five years. One of those four could win it all again — or Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, even Mississippi State could rise to the top.

All eyes will be on Oklahoma on the first weekend of the season, but the smart money will keep an eye on the SEC.

College Football Preseason Rankings

SI.com has posted its college football preseason Top 20, along with its rankings of the the rest of Division 1.

And the results are somewhat predictable.

Before I go any farther, here is the Top 20:

1. Florida


2. Texas


3. Oklahoma


4. USC


5. Virginia Tech


6. Ole Miss


7. Oklahoma State


8. Alabama


9. Boise State


10. Ohio State


11. Oregon


12. Georgia Tech


13. LSU


14. Penn State


15. Georgia


16. Florida State


17. TCU


18. Oregon State


19. Utah


20. North Carolina

Now, these rankings aren't entirely predictable. Just certain parts.

And when I say they are predictable, I mean in a hindsight sort of way. Florida, for example, won the national championship last year. And 15 of the other teams in SI.com's Top 20 finished in the Top 20 of last year's final AP Poll. For that matter, the same 16 teams finished in the Top 20 of the USA Today Coaches' Poll. And 14 of these teams were in the Top 20 of the Harris Interactive Poll.

But back to Florida. The Gators also won the national title in 2006. And their quarterback, Tim Tebow, is back for his senior season.

Picking Florida to finish first is not exactly going out on a limb.

Actually, it isn't much of a gamble to pick Texas and Oklahoma for the second and third spots, either. Both programs struggled in the 1990s, but they seem to be back on track. OU won the national title in 2000, Texas won the national title in 2005. And both have been contenders throughout the decade.

Based on the rankings — and SI.com's bowl projections — Texas is the favorite this year.

In fact, the winner of their annual showdown in October is likely to be the odds–on favorite to play for another national title in January. And that is what SI.com is projecting — that Texas will play Florida for the national crown.

Which teams are in SI.com's Top 20 but were not in the Top 20 of those polls at the end of last season? Well, Florida State, Georgia Tech, LSU and North Carolina were not in the AP poll or the USA Today Coaches' poll. Georgia Tech was in the Harris Interactive Top 20, but Ole Miss, Virginia Tech and Oregon State were not.

It's worth noting, though, that the Harris poll's final rankings came out in early December so the poll didn't take into consideration the facts that Ole Miss, Virginia Tech and Oregon State all won their bowl games.

It is also worth noting that LSU and North Carolina are the only teams in SI.com's Preseason Top 20 that did not appear in the final installations of at least one of those three polls.

But LSU is a pretty easy one to include. The Tigers, after all, won national titles in 2007 and 2003. They're coming off an 8–5 season that included a bowl victory so it isn't much of a longshot to pick LSU to be successful this year. In fact, the only other time this decade in which LSU wasn't ranked at season's end preceded the first of their two national titles in the 21st century.

Now, what about North Carolina? The Tar Heels have more of a reputation as a basketball program than a football program — and they play in a conference that is known more for basketball than football. Well, the Tar Heels have enjoyed some success over the years. They haven't won their conference since 1980, and they've never won a national title. But they also went 8–5 last season. It was the Tar Heels' first winning season since 2001.

So do they deserve to be Number 20 in SI.com's rankings? Apparently so. Armed with "hyperquick" linebackers anchoring a defense that returns nine starters, SI.com says, "It's time to turn the close losses into big wins and step onto the national stage."

We'll see. Boston College and Virginia Tech played for the ACC title last year, with Tech winning. Boston College doesn't have much of a reputation in football, either, but the Eagles have been to bowl games every year since 1999. SI.com ranks Boston College Number 71 heading into the season. Draw from that what you will.

One thing I'm wondering about is how SI.com feels about my alma mater — the University of Arkansas. The Razorbacks have struggled in recent years, and, based on the preseason rankings, they will have their work cut out for them when they play Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU, but SI.com ranks them 37th in the nation and predicts Arkansas will play Clemson in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 27.

That's all the information I've got on the Razorbacks right now. I suppose SI.com will post the Arkansas scouting report later this month — presumably after it appears in print in SI's Aug. 17 issue.

But if the Hogs go back to a bowl game this year, I will be happy. Woo pig sooie!

Sorting Out the Big 12 South

I've been trying to figure out a fair way of breaking the three-way tie between Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South.

In the latest developments, Texas moved past Oklahoma in the latest AP poll, and Oklahoma was a mere one point ahead of Texas in the coaches' poll. There are still some numbers to come, to be digested and then applied to the Big 12 South race.

Of course, the BCS will do that for us later today. But my objective is to find a way to break the tie and send the most appropriate representative to the conference championship game — without permitting the BCS rankings to interfere, influence or make the decision.

Oklahoma is, deservedly, proud of its high-scoring offense (although the Longhorns and Red Raiders also have put lots of points on the board this season).

And Texas is, deservedly, proud of its stingy scoring defense.

All of which supports my primary position, which is that football is a team game.

In spite of the massive attention that the "skill" players — the quarterbacks, running backs and wideouts — receive, football is still a team game. Every player has to do his part for the unit to succeed.

The quarterback with the best, most accurate arm in the country will rarely even get a pass into the air if his offensive line is unable to hold its blocks. The fastest, most elusive running back will find few holes to run through if the offensive linemen do not do their jobs.

And each coach handles his team differently. Coach A may take his starters out of the game as soon as they've built a lead of about 20 points or so. Coach B may prefer to wait until the score is more lopsided. Coach C may not take his starters out at all, no matter what the score.

Consequently, there may be huge — although technically insignificant — variations in point differentials.

In the great scheme of things, though, a win should be a win should be a win.

If we start rewarding teams because of point differentials, we encourage programs to schedule vastly inferior nonconference foes and keep pouring on the points long after the issue has been decided.

That means fewer and fewer nonconference games will be scheduled between national powers. The only meaningful games to be played during the regular season will be the ones that are played within a conference.

By emphasizing point differentials, we also encourage coaches to put their best players at risk of injury much longer than they otherwise would be inclined — strictly in the interest of adding another touchdown or two to the final score.

This season, it has been impressive that Oklahoma has scored at least 52 points in two-thirds of its games. And the offense deserves to be recognized for its accomplishments.

But the Sooners had to score a lot of points — half of the time, they gave up at least 28 to the opposition. In fact, only one Big 12 rival (Baylor) failed to score at least 21 points against the Sooners.

And, if Oklahoma State had scored 41 points against Texas as it did against OU, the Cowboys — not the Longhorns — would have come in to the Thanksgiving weekend with a chance of playing for the conference crown.

It's true that the Sooners have averaged about 59 points per game since the Oct. 11 loss to Texas. But it's also true that, in that same six-game span, the defense has given up nearly 31 points per game.

Most teams will win if they score 31 points.

On average, at least 59 other schools gave up fewer points per game this season than the Sooners.

Scoring alone, clearly, doesn't tell the story of a team's season.

And, just as clearly, defense is still important, even with all the attention that the Big Three quarterbacks have drawn this season.

So I've decided to look at seven team categories:

1. Passing offense


2. Rushing offense


3. Scoring offense


4. Scoring defense


5. Rushing defense


6. Passing defense


7. Total defense

I use the following point system:

Whichever team is ranked higher among the three teams in a particular category receives one point. The team that is ranked second in that category receives two points. The team with the third-best ranking receives three points. Differentials within categories are not considered.

The team with the lowest number, therefore, is the team that should represent the division in the conference championship.

Using this approach, Texas ranks first in three of the seven categories — scoring defense, rushing defense and total defense. Texas Tech (passing offense and passing defense) and Oklahoma (rushing offense and scoring offense) each rank first in two categories.

But Oklahoma earns the edge by being no worse than second in the other five categories. The final point totals were:

1. Oklahoma 12 points


2. Texas 14 points


3. Texas Tech 16 points

Under this system, Texas could have turned things around if the Longhorns had done a little better than the Sooners in the two categories where Texas was third among the three and OU was second.

Those categories were passing offense and passing defense.

Texas Tech appears to have lost whatever momentum it had prior to the Oklahoma game. The Red Raiders had a chance to make a statement against Baylor — and barely avoided an embarrassing upset. In the process, they have worked themselves out of a discussion of which they were in charge until their trip to Norman a week ago.

So the battle is between Texas and Oklahoma. Personally, I feel the best way to compare two teams is their head-to-head meeting. The outcome of that game, a win for Texas, is a fact — millions watched it on TV — whereas the assertion that Oklahoma is playing better than Texas right now is purely subjective.

It seems to me that such a conclusion puts the burden of proof on the prosecution (Oklahoma), but where is the proof that the Longhorns are playing any worse than they were playing the day they beat the Sooners? The only such evidence might be the Longhorns' last-second loss in Lubbock on Nov. 1 — but, since that time, Texas has outscored its opponents by an average of 31 points.

Nevertheless, I feel Oklahoma will probably move past Texas in the BCS rankings later today.

Whatever happens, it's sure to be controversial.

Seems Like Old Times ...

The top five schools in the BCS rankings — which are based in large part on the current rankings in the AP, Harris and Coaches' polls — are:

1. Texas (7-0)


2. Alabama (7-0)


3. Penn State (8-0)


4. Oklahoma (6-1)


5. USC (5-1)

If I had to put together a Top 10 list of schools that dominated college football when I was a boy, those five would be on that list (along with Notre Dame, Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio State).

I guess the old saying is true.

The more things change ...

Who Should Be #1 Now?

A couple of weeks ago, I asked this question — after Southern Cal and Florida lost to unranked opponents and eighth-ranked Alabama beat third-ranked Georgia.

Circumstances compel me to ask it again.

• The top-ranked team, Oklahoma, lost to the fifth-ranked team, Texas, by 10 points Saturday. (Barry Tramel conceded, in The Oklahoman, that "the better team won.")
  
  Texas vaulted into the top spot in the polls.
  
  Is that where the Longhorns belong?
  
  Well ...


• Second-ranked Alabama was idle, but third-ranked Missouri lost to 17th-ranked Oklahoma State. David Ubben of the Columbia Missourian says the loss "ended any hope" that Missouri would play for the national title.
  
  Meanwhile, the still unbeaten OSU Cowboys prepare to take on Baylor next week, followed by a showdown with Texas on Oct. 25.
  
  Actually, we should learn a lot about Texas in the next three weeks. The 'Horns are at home against Missouri next Saturday and Oklahoma State on Oct. 25, then they travel to Texas Tech for a Big XII South game on Nov. 1.


• Eleventh-ranked Florida, after being knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten by Ole Miss two weeks ago, absolutely hammered #4 LSU, 51-21. The Gators have two weeks to savor their victory over the defending national champions before returning to action against Kentucky on Oct. 25.


• Seventh-ranked Texas Tech managed to remain unbeaten, but the Red Raiders struggled against unranked Nebraska only to pull off a 37-31 win in overtime.


• And there were some other upsets in college football Saturday, including previously unbeaten #13 Vanderbilt's loss to Mississippi State, 17-14, and unranked Arkansas' victory over #20 Auburn on the road, 25-22.

Even though Alabama was idle yesterday, I still think (as I did two weeks ago) that the Crimson Tide deserve to be ranked #1. I think they might run the table the rest of the way — and that would include victories over Auburn and LSU.

But in the latest AP poll, the Longhorns rode their 45-35 win over the Sooners to the top ranking in the land, while OU fell to #4.

The Tide still isn't getting the recognition I believe it deserves. Alabama remained at #2 in the polls.

Personally, I would be shocked if Alabama doesn't win its next three games (vs. Ole Miss, at Tennessee and vs. Arkansas State) before traveling to Baton Rouge, La., to take on LSU on Nov. 8.

Who Should Be the New #1?

On Thursday night, when Oregon State knocked off the top-ranked college football team in the land (Southern Cal), it became official that a new #1 team would emerge following the release of the next football polls.

Shortly, those polls will be released. But, since USC's loss, we've also seen third-ranked Georgia lose to eighth-ranked Alabama and fourth-ranked Florida lose to unranked Ole Miss.

So three of the top five teams went down to defeat within a couple of days of each other — including two teams (USC and Florida) who lost to unranked teams.

Does that mean that second-ranked Oklahoma should ascend to the top spot, following the Sooners' triumph over #24 TCU?

Should fifth-ranked (and defending national champion) LSU leap to the top spot after defeating unranked Mississippi State by 10 points at home?

Or should Texas move up to #1, after whipping my alma mater, Arkansas, 52-10, in spite of the fact that this is clearly a rebuilding year for the Razorbacks?

If you're a college football fan, there was a lot going on Saturday. SI.com's Stewart Mandel said it was a "virtual potpourri of badly played football," but, from a viewer's perspective, it's hard to beat a day in which so many ranked teams lose to so many unranked ones. In addition to USC's and Florida's stunning losses, #9 Wisconsin lost to unranked Michigan, unranked Navy defeated #16 Wake Forest, unranked Maryland upset #20 Clemson and unranked Houston humiliated #23 East Carolina.

No doubt many schools will have cases to make for being recognized as the top team in the country. And the new rankings probably will provoke many arguments.

But, honestly, does the ranking really matter in September?

For some schools, yes, it does.

Those are the schools that haven't been on football's national championship radar frequently (if at all) — including unbeaten Missouri, which had the day off yesterday.

Programs that have built reputations as football powers don't really need to be ranked #1 at this stage of the season.

But someone's going to be #1 when the votes are tabulated.

And my choice is Alabama. The final score in the Crimson Tide's 41-30 victory over #3 Georgia was misleadingly close — Alabama was ahead, 31-0, by halftime and "toyed" with the Bulldogs the rest of the way, reports the Kansas City Star.

Next up for Alabama is a home game against 4-0 Kentucky at 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Saturday. CBS plans to televise it. The sight of 90,000 delirious Tide fans in Bryant-Denny Stadium should make for compelling television.

Don't look now, but the Tide fans have a lot to be excited about. Alabama is 5-0 and has put up 90 points against two SEC opponents thus far.

Even so, coach Lou Saban, who has restored the Tide to its powerhouse status, isn't buying the talk that Alabama is a contender for the national title.

"After five games?" he asked after Saturday night's win in Athens, Ga. "Let's see when we get a full body of work at the end of the season."

Seems like the kind of thing Paul "Bear" Bryant would have said.

Is USC One and Done?

I stayed up late enough on Thursday night to watch Oregon State hold off Southern Cal's comeback attempt, and the then-No. 1 Trojans lost the decision to the upstart Beavers, 27-21.

And, because of that loss in late September, many people are now writing off USC's prospects for playing for a national title in January.

For example, Michael Ventre writes, for NBCSports.com, that the Trojans can forget about appearing in the national title game in January.

"The Trojans didn’t just hurt their chances to play for a national title," Ventre says, "they slaughtered them."

Ventre doesn't refer to the mere fact that Oregon State was unranked. In fact, according to SportsIllustrated.com, the Beavers barely rank in the top half of the entire Division I.

He contends that the real problem is that the Trojans "should have learned this lesson already" when they lost at home to Stanford, 24-23, nearly a year ago, "and that’s why voters will punish them from here on."

Thus, in Ventre's analysis, those who vote in the poll rankings have such long memories and extensive knowledge of college football that they will remember not only that USC lost to Stanford last October but also that they will recall the role they played in gradually improving USC's chances of playing for the national championship by continuing to rank them higher with each succeeding victory — and they will seek absolution for their complicity.

"People are savvier these days," Ventre writes, "and they’re more likely to sip the Kool-Aid rather than guzzle it without thinking."

In Ventre's words, last year the Trojans "finished strong and made an inspired case for why they should play for the national championship."

But, in the end, even though the Trojans were in the running for a berth in the national title game, they didn't get it.

Ventre suggests that the voters won't let USC get away with another upset loss in 2008 and be a prospect for the national championship by season's end. I think he gives the voters more credit than they deserve.

Personally, I'm not convinced that USC won't be in the national title picture again at the end of the season — assuming they run the table the rest of the way.

And, as weak as the Pac-10 is, it seems likely to me that USC can win the rest of its games.

It seems to me that the team that has been living on borrowed time is Ohio State.

The Buckeyes played SEC teams for the national title the last two years and failed miserably each time.

USC's loss on Thursday night should weigh even more heavily on the Buckeyes than on the Trojans. It was merely two weeks ago that Ohio State was hammered in a face-to-face meeting with the same USC team that was embarrassed by Oregon State.

So it seems to me that the real question should be, will the pollsters promote Ohio State (currently languishing in the Second Ten of both Top 25 polls) and eventually give the Buckeyes a third straight opportunity to seize the ring — in spite of lurching through the season?

Lord knows, I'm no fan of the BCS. But there's a good reason why the BCS rankings are not released until after the midway point of the season. It gives teams time to show their true identities.

Are they contenders or pretenders? That's a question that simply cannot be adequately answered in three or four games.

And, with all due respect to Ventre, the BCS pollsters haven't demonstrated to me that their memories are longer than the typical gypsy moth's.