Can Nyquist Go Undefeated?

---

---

I love to watch horse racing.

Going to the races at Oaklawn in Hot Springs was one of my favorite off–day activities when I worked on the sports desk at the Arkansas Gazette. I was off Mondays and Tuesdays in those days; while there was much about that schedule that I disliked the rest of the time, I really preferred it during racing season. If the weather was nice, a Monday or a Tuesday at Oaklawn Park was impossible to beat. The crowds were small so I didn't have to stand in line to do anything like place a bet, buy a beer, get a sandwich or use the restroom. The horses were the dregs of their stables, but that just made the races more interesting.

I like to watch the Triple Crown races, too, but I have always watched them on TV. I have never been to any of the Triple Crown races, but it is always fun for me simply to watch the TV coverage. The fact that I haven't seen one in person hasn't bothered me.

I don't have a bucket list — but if I did, going to Churchill Downs on Derby Day would be on it. I wouldn't even have to go inside and watch the race. I'd rather watch the people. That was probably my favorite thing to do at Oaklawn, and, judging from what I typically see in the pre–race TV coverage on Derby Day, the people at Churchill Downs are always 10 times — nay, 100 times — more interesting than the folks at Oaklawn ever were.

Sometimes the races are pretty good, too.

Like the one that was run yesterday.

It was an exciting race, ultimately won by the 3–to–1 favorite, an undefeated horse named Nyquist. If Nyquist wins the Triple Crown, he will be the second Triple Crown winner to have an unblemished record. The first was Seattle Slew.

Conventional wisdom says Nyquist probably will win the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness, which will be run a week from this Saturday (May 21). The distances of the Derby and the Preakness are the same, and the races tend to attract the same fields. There are variables, of course. Sometimes jockeys change, sometimes horses drop out and new ones are inserted, and sometimes the conditions are different (one race may be on a fast track, the other may be on a sloppy track).

But generally speaking the Derby winner is the favorite and usually prevails.

If that holds true this time, then it will be the Belmont, which will be held on June 11, that will make or break Nyquist. It is often called the "Test of Champions" because it is considerably longer than the first two Triple Crown races. Indeed, it is probably the longest race any of the horses that compete in it will ever run.

Thus, while the first two races of the Triple Crown favor speed horses, the final race favors endurance horses. Most horses fall in one category or the other. It is rare to find a combination of speed and endurance within the same horse — but those horses that do combine them usually win the Triple Crown.

With yesterday's victory, Nyquist has established himself as a speed horse on a big–time stage. I expect him to duplicate his achievement in Maryland in two weeks.

Then the question will be whether he is one of those rare horses that combine speed and endurance. The answer will come on the track at the Belmont.

Will The Drought End Tomorrow?

---

---

I remember the last Triple Crown winner — vaguely. I had just graduated from high school — and broken up with my girlfriend. I was going to enroll in college in the fall. I didn't really pay close attention to horse racing at that time in my life. After all, a Triple Crown? What was so special about that? It was the third one in six years.

In hindsight, the duels between eventual Triple Crown winner Affirmed and his rival Alydar were quite special. In addition to producing the most recent Triple Crown winner (in 1978), they were just darn good horse races.

I must admit that I have been pretty busy this year. I have managed to watch the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as usual, but that has really been the extent of it this year.

Still, I learned a few things. For one, I know — as everyone knows about horses that win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness — that American Pharoah is a speed horse. But that means nothing going into tomorrow's race. The first two races of the Triple Crown emphasize speed; the Belmont, which will be run tomorrow, is the longest race any horse will ever run, and it emphasizes endurance. It is really more of a jockey's race. The jockey must make critical decisions, such as when to make your move and dig deep for any reserves of energy. You don't really see signs of that in the Derby or the Preakness. They're over in the blink of an eye. But the Belmont is a longer race. The jockey's strategic skills combine with the horse's endurance.

I didn't realize until three weeks ago how good American Pharoah could be on a sloppy track. His victory in the Preakness was dominant in soggy conditions, which might tell us a lot if rain was in the forecast. But there's only a slight chance of rain in Elmont, N.Y., tomorrow. Should be a pleasant day, actually, with a northerly breeze and a temperature in the mid–70s.

But the track should be dry, as it was at the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago. American Pharoah's victory wasn't as dominant in that one.

---

---

That was, by far, the more dramatic race, with American Pharoah bunched with two other horses as they sprinted to the finish line. They were so tightly bunched, in fact, that I thought I was about to see my first–ever photo finish involving three horses. But American Pharoah pulled away and was the clear winner.

I've become a bit jaded about the Triple Crown in recent years. We've been disappointed a little more than one–third of the time when the Derby/Preakness winner either did not win or did not enter the Belmont; the rest of the time, there was no chance that the winner of the Belmont would win the Triple Crown because two different horses had won the Derby and the Preakness — and that meant low TV ratings and low attendance.

Last year, with California Chrome making what turned out to be an unsuccessful bid for the Triple Crown, more than 100,000 people came to the track, and things got out of hand. This year, organizers say they're putting a cap on attendance at 90,000. We'll see how that works out.

So will American Pharoah end the drought? He's the clear favorite going into the race, but I have been skeptical in recent years. I have written about that before, and I feel much the same way this time. I doubt that it will happen.

I don't have any overwhelming reason for that. I don't have a horse in mind that I think will win the race, although there are a couple of names I have been hearing mentioned frequently — Keen Ice and Frosted. Keep an eye on those horses. Even though the 1½–mile Belmont emphasizes endurance, I think it is possible that either of those horses could make a move from the start that forces American Pharoah into a speed race. Unless he really turns out to be one of those rare perfect blends of speed and endurance, he will run out of gas before he reaches the finish line.

---

---

Here's a look at the last time a horse won the Triple Crown — Affirmed's triumph in the Belmont Stakes in June of 1978.

There's No Such Thing as a Sure Thing

---

---

When I worked on a sports copy desk in Little Rock, I became friends with the sportswriter who covered horse racing for us.

I learned a lot from him. I remember most of the things he told me, and I will never forget what may have been the most important thing he told me: There is no such thing as a sure thing. That's why they call it gambling.

In a week and a half, California Chrome will become the 12th horse to enter the Belmont Stakes with a chance to win the Triple Crown since Affirmed became the most recent Triple Crown winner in 1978. (Well, I presume he will run in the Belmont. He might not have if he hadn't been permitted to wear the nasal strip that helped him breathe easier in the first two races — and he still might not compete. I guess we won't know for sure until the Belmont is run on June 7.)

Obviously, we've been here before — and, just as obviously, success in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness does not mean success in the Belmont Stakes.

It's a point every Triple Crown winner must reach en route to achieving the goal, of course, and 11 horses have won all three races for 3–year–old thoroughbreds that comprise it.

That's 11 Triple Crown winners in 95 years — since Sir Barton won the first Triple Crown back in 1919. But we's have had that many horses win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness and fail to win the Belmont since Affirmed's Triple Crown in 1978 — starting with Spectacular Bid in 1979.

There had never been three consecutive Triple Crown winners when Spectacular Bid ran in the Belmont, but, if Spectacular Bid had won that race, it would have made three straight Triple Crown winners.

On the morning of the 1979 Belmont, it was discovered that Spectacular Bid had stepped on a safety pin, and it was lodged in his hoof. He didn't appear to be lame, though, so he was allowed to run the race, and he appeared to be doing well, holding the lead at the midway point. However, he began to falter and finished third.

---

---

Since then, 10 other horses have won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness but failed to win the Belmont — and it might have been 11, but we'll never know. I'll Have Another won the first two races in 2012 but did not run in the Belmont.

Winning the first two races and losing the third wasn't a new thing in 1979. In the years before Spectacular Bid's Triple Crown attempt, eight other horses won the first two races but came up short in the third and last one. But it has been happening with greater frequency in the last 35 years.

Why is that? Well, I could be wrong, but I think it is because of the age of specialization that permeates sports these days.

Take baseball, for example. When I was growing up, it wasn't uncommon for a pitcher to throw a complete game. In fact, it was routinely expected that starting pitchers would go the distance — and relievers were called upon only when things got out of hand.

Now, baseball teams carry staffs of relief specialists who are called on (ideally) when the starter has gone six or seven innings, long enough to receive credit for the win, starting with the middle reliever and (again, ideally) proceeding to the closer.

I don't breed horses, but I gather — from my own observations and comments from those whose evaluations on such things I trust — that horses are bred for either speed or endurance, not both. To a degree, I suppose it has always been that way; I have always heard certain horses referred to as speed horses and other horses referred to as endurance horses.

I've heard some people suggest that, based on the times of the first two races, California Chrome is an endurance horse. I'm not sure about that. These assessments are made on the basis of times that differ by fifths of seconds. Sports are often described as being games of inches, though, so judging distances by fifths of seconds may not be all that different. I'm just not entirely sure it is the way to differentiate between a speed horse and an endurance horse.

Essentially, I suppose, a horse that can win all three races of the Triple Crown is both.

They call the Belmont the "test of the champion," and it really is. It is the longest of the three races by at least a quarter of a mile, thus emphasizing endurance over speed. If a horse can win the Triple Crown, he really has proven himself as an all–around champion.

In an interesting piece in The Atlantic last week, Henry Fetter wrote that even a Triple Crown winner won't be enough to save horse racing.

"[H]oping that a Triple Crown for California Chrome can jump–start a turnaround in the fortunes of the erstwhile sport of kings is almost certainly a hope too far," Fetter wrote.

I hope he's wrong.

The Return of Calvin Borel

---

---

Does the name of Calvin Borel sound familiar to you?

He's a jockey from Louisiana, and, even if you only pay attention to horse racing in the five weeks of the Triple Crown, Borel's name should sound familiar to you. He's a Hall of Famer, a three–time winner of the Kentucky Derby; in 2009, he won the Preakness as well and became the first jockey to win the first two races of the Triple Crown on different horses.

In fact, when he won the Preakness (exactly five years ago this Friday), Borel rode a filly, Rachel Alexandra. It wasn't the first time that a filly won the Preakness, but it was the first time in 85 years.

It is important to know that because Borel apparently will be trying to duplicate horse racing history in this Saturday's running of the Preakness. It was reported yesterday that Borel will be riding another filly, Ria Antonia.

The immediate plans for the filly, who recently changed owners, were uncertain initially, but Jennie Rees of USA Today reports that "[a]n impressive workout Sunday under Calvin Borel seemed to seal the deal."

Meanwhile, Kentucky Derby winner and presumptive Preakness favorite California Chrome arrived in Baltimore Monday. He seemed to enjoy the attention he received, writes Childs Walker in the Baltimore Sun.

He's getting plenty of attention from other owners who would like to puncture the Triple Crown balloon. As I observed following the Kentucky Derby, the comparatively leisurely pace of the Kentucky Derby might encourage the owners of speed horses to challenge California Chrome in Baltimore.

Is that what is happening? Is Ria Antonia a speed horse who might be capable of challenging California Chrome?

Her new trainer isn't saying, only that he see the Preakness as being California Chrome vs. the field. If he is able to run the race his way, he will win. But if he is thrown off by something or someone, all bets are off.

Speaking of bets, according to the odds posted yesterday, the pending odds against Ria Antonia are 32–1. If the odds are unchanged Saturday afternoon, and Borel rides Ria Antonia to victory, it will be a big story — but it won't be the biggest story in Borel's career. Two weeks before he rode Rachel Alexandra to victory in the Preakness, he rode Mine That Bird, a 50–to–1 shot, to a huge upset win in the Kentucky Derby.

Borel rode Ride On Curlin in this year's Kentucky Derby on May 3, finishing seventh. Ride On Curlin will be in the Preakness field this Saturday, but Joel Rosario, who rode General A Rod to an 11th–place finish at Churchill Downs, will replace Borel.

(General A Rod has been confirmed for the race, too. Javier Castellano, who rode the winner in the 2006 Preakness, will be on board.)

Can California Chrome Win the Triple Crown?

---

---

As expected, California Chrome won the Kentucky Derby yesterday.

I watched the race, as I always do. I enjoyed the spectacle of the thing. I reminded myself that someday I would really like to go to Churchill Downs to watch the Kentucky Derby in person.

It isn't a Bucket List kind of thing. I know that you've probably got to have connections with people who have connections to people who have connections to the Derby merely to be able to watch from the grandstand. During my days as a sports copy editor, I knew a handicapper rather well, and he might have been such a connection for me then. But that was many years ago, and my friend is now deceased. The odds against my ever going to the Kentucky Derby must be incredible.

So it will remain the sort of thing I would like to do, but it isn't the sort of thing I absolutely positively must do, before I die. And that's OK.

Anyway, as I say, I enjoyed the spectacle of the race. It's always exciting for me to watch those horses running around that track, but each year it seems I care less about who wins — and more about whether he can win the other two races in the Triple Crown, the Preakness in two weeks and the Belmont in early June.

It has been nearly 36 years since Affirmed became the most recent horse to win the Triple Crown. Since I'll probably never get to see a Kentucky Derby in person, I would like to witness a Triple Crown winner.

There are those who follow horse racing who will tell you that a Triple Crown can not be won — but they have been saying that for decades, whenever there is a gap between Triple Crown winners. Thirty–six years and counting is the longest such drought in Triple Crown history, which encourages the naysayers all the more.

The Kentucky Derby is the clean slate for the Triple Crown. Once it is over, there is only one horse that can win the Triple Crown that year. But before the Run for the Roses, the number of horses that could win the Triple Crown is however many horses are running at Churchill Downs.

The Preakness is always important in the quest for the Triple Crown, but it can be misleading. Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown, a dozen horses have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, but none won the Belmont.

(In fact, it has been 10 years since a horse won the Derby and the Preakness and even finished the Belmont. Big Brown didn't finish in 2008, and I'll Have Another was scratched in 2012.)

Why is that so? Well, the Derby and the Preakness are shorter races. They're practically the same distance, and they favor speed. The Belmont is considerably longer, and it favors endurance.

Few horses combine both. The legendary Secretariat did, coming from behind to win the first two jewels but seizing control of the Belmont and winning it by 30 lengths. The video tape of that race is the most amazing thing you will ever see at a race track.

Judging from the somewhat pedestrian pace of yesterday's Kentucky Derby, which was run on a warm, sunny day and a dry track, this year's field may lean toward endurance. That could encourage owners of speed horses to challenge California Chrome at Pimlico on May 17, and he may wind up facing horses he hasn't seen before.

If you are mostly unfamiliar with horse racing and don't really follow it until this five–week period in May and June, you probably don't think of two weeks as being short rest, but for nearly all horsemen, it is probably the equivalent of sending your ace pitcher back out to the mound a couple of days after his last start.

It simply isn't done.

Well, except during the run for the Triple Crown — three races, three states, five–week period. That's like an Iron Man Triathlon for horses.

"I'm not real comfortable with running him back in two weeks, but I know that's what we're bound to do," California Chrome's trainer told Reuters. "I'm more the kind of guy who likes to wait seven or eight weeks between races. These horses run hard and they need time to recover."

No records were set in yesterday's race. Don't expect any two weeks from now.

Intriguing Stories at Kentucky Derby

---

---

The 2014 edition of the Kentucky Derby will be run in a few hours, and there are some interesting story lines to follow. Of course, part of that is due to the pressure on sportswriters to produce compelling copy in the days before the big race (when the only newsworthy developments are likely to be bad).

Somewhere out there someone must have written a piece that lays out all the reasons why the longest longshot on the board (and, currently, that is 48–to–1 pick Vinceremos) is the smart pick.

That doesn't mean the stories aren't good — but take it from an ex–sports copy editor. Take each with as many grains of salt as you need.

Joe Drape of the New York Times reports that the Kentucky Derby is an opportunity for two sons to do something their fathers weren't able to do.

Allen Jerkens is a Hall of Fame trainer. He trained horses that beat Secretariat and Kelso (who did not win the Triple Crown because his 3–year–old season began after the Triple Crown had been decided) — but his horses never won the Kentucky Derby. His son Jimmy is the trainer of Wicked Strong, a 7–to–1 shot as of 2 p.m. Central time today — second only to prerace favorite California Chrome (2–1 after opening at 5–to–2).

Similarly, Don Little Jr., the owner of Wicked Strong, comes from old thoroughbred racing stock. In the 1980s, his father (now deceased) founded Centennial Farms, which has produced some pretty good horses (including a Belmont Stakes winner), but none of them has ever won the Run for the Roses.

Today may be their best chance, but Danza, a 9–to–1 shot after opening at 10–1, could have something to say about it. Named for actor Tony Danza (who once played a part–time boxer on TV's Taxi), the Arkansas Derby winner seems to be a legitimate contender. His jockey, Joe Bravo, is the latest branch in a family tree full of jockeys and has won quite a few major races, but he has yet to win a Kentucky Derby.

Still, California Chrome appears to be everyone's pick.

(Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form writes that California Chrome is a working–class–hero in the sport of kings. He definitely has been working more than the other horses. He has started more races than any of his rivals.)

Cindy Boren claims in the Washington Post to provide everything you need to know about betting on the race — and she does ... except for how to pick the winner.

That, my friends, is why they call it gambling.

At the moment, 19 horses are in the race. Twenty–one were entered originally, but two have been scratched. The Derby field is always like that; the field is less crowded for the other two races in the Triple Crown. But at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, every contender and pretender is on the track.

(Sometimes, it seems to me, a bet in the Kentucky Derby would be just as likely to produce a winner if the pick was made by throwing a dart at a dartboard in which the horses' names replaced numbers.)

Handicapper Liam Durbin writes in the Chicago Tribune that he can save you all the trouble of wading through each horse's track record.

California Chrome is probably the logical choice, he writes, but the best value might be — and here we introduce a fourth horse to watch — Dance With Fate.

Dance With Fate is something of a sleeper, currently 14–1 after opening at 20–1. Corey Nakatani will be riding Dance With Fate, and he, too, is looking for his first Kentucky Derby victory.

Teresa Genaro of Forbes has tips for gamblers as well.

And she actually does pick the winner — Ride On Curlin, a 15–to–1 pick.

USA Today reports that the experts' picks are all over the place.

So who will win? You can see the race for yourself on NBC in less than two hours — at 5:32 p.m. (Central).

When Secretariat Won the Preakness

---

---

When a horse wins the Kentucky Derby, it sets off a certain amount of speculation about whether that horse can win the Triple Crown.

But most railbirds don't get excited about a horse's chances of winning the Triple Crown until the Derby winner actually wins that second jewel, the Preakness.

After all, someone has to win the Kentucky Derby, right? Win the Preakness, too, and then we'll talk.

(There will be no such talk this year. Oxbow won yesterday's Preakness, not Orb, the Kentucky Derby winner.)

When Secretariat won the 1973 Kentucky Derby, there was still some residual uncertainty about whether it was a true representation of the likely outcome of a duel between Secretariat and Sham. After all, Sham had beaten Secretariat decisively in the Wood Memorial a few weeks earlier.

The rematch of the top two finishers in the Derby was highly anticipated, and the Secretariat–Sham showdown riveted the attention of the sports world for the five weeks of the Triple Crown.

And when Secretariat won the Preakness 40 years ago today, it triggered a wave of excitement in the sports world. It had been 25 years since a horse had won the Triple Crown, and, in that time, only seven horses had won the first two jewels of the Triple Crown. Five of them had come along in the last 10 years alone.

While many people in horse racing did not believe a horse could win the Triple Crown again, others believed recent history indicated otherwise.

---

---

Could he do it?

The sports world was about to find out if Secretariat could become the eighth horse in 25 years to win the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, and a record crowd was on hand at Pimlico in Baltimore for the 100th running of the Preakness Stakes.

Other than the fact that Secretariat set a speed record in the Derby, perhaps the only thing that made him stand out was the hype that followed him everywhere. Investors had been paying record prices for breeding shares — as if Secretariat had already won the Triple Crown.

As he did in the Kentucky Derby two weeks earlier, Secretariat started almost casually, lumbering out of the gate and settling into the back of the pack. Investors' hearts must have skipped a beat or two.

But, about halfway through the race, he made his move and passed the other horses as if they were standing still, seizing the lead and sprinting down the stretch.

Frankly, I never saw anything like Secretariat. It's probably safe to say no one else had, either. He set records in all three Triple Crown races — records that still stand today.

And his most impressive performance was still to come — in the Belmont Stakes three weeks later when he beat Sham again, this time by 30 lengths.

Prepping for the Preakness

---

---

If Andrew Beyer of the Washington Post is correct, Kentucky Derby winner Orb should have no trouble winning today's Preakness.

The temperature is supposed to be mild in Baltimore today — around 72° with a slight chance of rain. That's important because, as anyone who saw the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago will attest, the first race in the Triple Crown was run in muddy conditions.

Thus, the question today is, did Orb win the Kentucky Derby because of or in spite of the track conditions? Well, that's how I see it, anyway.

Beyer, though, thinks the key factor is the small field.

"The second–, third– and fourth–place finishers at Churchill Downs will not be at Pimlico," Beyer observes. "Just eight horses will challenge Orb, and it is difficult to make a solid case for any of them."

Jerry Bossert of the New York Daily News makes a solid case for how the race will play out — and he, too, thinks Orb will win it.

"[T]he Triple Crown dream continues for three more weeks," he writes.

At this point, that is something that is not obvious. It remains to be seen.

But of all the pre–Preakness opining I have seen, Bill Dwyre of the Los Angeles Times may be the master of the obvious when he writes that the stakes are highest for Orb in today's race.

Well, duh.

It's always the most crucial. If the Kentucky Derby winner loses the Preakness, the interest level for the Belmont three weeks later plummets — to the point where only folks in the industry and diehard racing fans will care who wins.

But if the Kentucky Derby winner also wins the Preakness, the Belmont becomes a prime attraction, and advertising will sell at Super Bowl–like rates. We're in the midst of a 35–year drought in the pursuit of a Triple Crown, and horse racing could use one.

Everything hinges on the Preakness. And Chris Korman writes in the Baltimore Sun that Orb is simply better than the rest. Whereas "[t]he Derby winner's reputation always balloons somewhere on the road from Louisville to [Baltimore]," he writes, "Orb's ascension has nearly made the rest of the field an afterthought."

If Orb wins today's Preakness, TV ratings for the Belmont could set records.

As Preakness Looms, Orb Surrounded by Cosmic Energy

---

---

I hesitate to say anything for fear of jinxing it (because I really would like to see horse racing have another Triple Crown winner), but there's a kind of cosmic energy surrounding Kentucky Derby winner Orb.

Of course, there are many questions to be answered when Orb runs in the Preakness on Saturday. Did he win the Derby because of the mud or in spite of it? It's supposed to be sunny and warm in Baltimore this weekend. How will that affect the race?

Typically, the Preakness field is about 14 or 15 horses, but Chris Korman of the Baltimore Sun reports that the field could be smaller — perhaps much smaller — than usual this year.

If the field is smaller, I suppose that increases the likelihood that the Derby winner also will win the Preakness — which would put him one win away from the Triple Crown, something that no horse has achieved in 35 years.

A few of the horses that have not yet been certified for the Preakness didn't run in the Derby. I don't know if they have ever run against Orb before. That could be a wild card.

This year is special. It is the 40th anniversary of Secretariat's Triple Crown, and I think, if you conducted a survey, Secretariat would be rated the #1 thoroughbred of all time.

And it would be appropriate — for a couple of reasons — if Orb wins the Triple Crown this year.

You see, Orb is the very first Kentucky Derby winner for the family of the legendary horse breeder Ogden Phipps.

Phipps could have had Secretariat. He won a coin flip (dramatized in the movie "Secretariat") that entitled him to his choice of the colts being carried by mares that had mated with Bold Ruler, a horse he inherited from his mother — and he chose the one that was not Secretariat, largely because Secretariat's mother was older than the other mare.

Now, four decades after Secretariat took the racing world by storm, a horse owned by the Phipps family has an opportunity to win the Triple Crown. If Orb can win the Preakness and the Belmont, he can remove the stigma of that coin toss.

"Dinny" Phipps, Ogden Phipps' son, says the experience has been "absolutely wonderful," which is, I suppose, what anyone would say under such circumstances.

Phipps made a remark in his conversation with the Associated Press that sounds like it could have been made by the horse breeder whose daughter wound up with Secretariat — "we love our fillies ... [w]e believe the broodmare is the most important quality of the race horse."

Perhaps that sense of respect is part of the legacy of losing Secretariat all those years ago. And perhaps Dinny Phipps wants to settle the score.

For now, though, it seems he is happy to say that he is "very, very lucky."

The Dawning of the Age of Secretariat

---

---

I don't know if Orb, the winner of yesterday's Kentucky Derby, will be the first winner of the Triple Crown in 35 years. I guess we'll know in five weeks.

But he's off to a start similar to Secretariat's in 1973. Like Secretariat, he had to come from behind to win the Kentucky Derby — and he won by two lengths.

Forty years ago today, most Americans probably had not heard much about Secretariat.

The name was familiar to those who followed horse racing, and a record crowd was on hand, many strictly to watch him run in the first jewel of the Triple Crown, but the average American who tuned in to watch the Kentucky Derby that Saturday afternoon in 1973 probably did not know who Secretariat was.

In fact, if casual horse racing fans had heard anything about Secretariat in the weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby, it wasn't good. In the Wood Memorial, his final Kentucky Derby prep race, Secretariat finished third behind his stablemate, Angle Light, and his top foe in the Triple Crown races, Sham.

It was discovered that Secretariat was suffering from an abscess in his mouth.

Secretariat recovered from the abscess by post time at Churchill Downs; nevertheless, many observers were influenced by the results of the Wood Memorial, leaving no clear consensus by the time the race began. Secretariat and his stablemate went off as 3–2 favorites. Sham was just behind at 5–2.

---

---

In his trademark fashion, Secretariat meandered out of the gate and ran at the back of the pack for awhile before making his move and giving the racing fans at Churchill Downs a dramatic finish in which he overtook Sham to win by two lengths.

I've known a few horse people in my day, and some would tell you that a horse knows a lot more than people give him credit for. Others would tell you that horses may have a certain level of intelligence, but they can't understand a language or speak one (sorry, Mister Ed), and they can't process/analyze information.

I don't know if either is true, but I do know Secretariat was different. Secretariat almost seemed to be lounging in the back, as if lolling in a hammock, conserving his energy until just the right moment — when he would burst from behind in the blink of an eye.

Secretariat seemed to shift into an entirely different gear, one unknown to mere horses. They called it hyperspace in "Star Wars," I think. But Secretariat came along several years before the first "Star Wars" movie. The concept of hyperspace was largely unknown.

Except, perhaps, to Secretariat.

Then again, maybe he was just making it look good.

Running for the Roses

---

---

I don't really have what folks have taken to calling a "bucket list."

Maybe I've always had a more realistic set of expectations than most people. I don't know. But it seems to me that most of the things I hoped to do when I was younger I have done.

I always liked writing and wanted to make a living doing it. So I majored in journalism, worked as a general assignment reporter, worked as a copy editor and have taught writing to university and community college students. I'm still doing the latter — as an adjunct.

I loved Theodore H. White's books on the making of the president, and I wanted to cover politics. I had no sooner finished work on my bachelor's degree than I found myself covering a gubernatorial runoff that featured a future president (Bill Clinton).

I grew up reading the Arkansas Gazette, and I dreamed that I would one day work for the Gazette. And I did, for more than 4½ years.

I grew up with a passion for team sports, especially football. I worked in the Gazette's sports department — editing stories written by journalists I had been reading for years.

If, as the old rhyme says, I should die before I wake ... I think I can honestly say that I achieved most of the goals I set for myself.

Except for one. I have never been to a Kentucky Derby. And that is something I would like to do once in my life.

(I just want to clarify one thing before I go on. When I speak of goals, of course, I'm overlooking the goals everyone has — i.e., acquiring wealth and/or power — and almost no one achieves.)

When I lived in Arkansas, I used to go to the horse track in Hot Springs on my days off in the spring. It was a grand form of entertainment. I planned on spending a certain amount of money and never expected to win my fortune. Mostly, I enjoyed watching the horses run — and watching the people who came to watch the horses run.

People watching seems to be at its peak at Churchill Downs. It always is — and I'm sure it will be when the horses run for the roses there later today.

And I'll be watching, as I always do. I don't know much about the field. I never do. Orb seems to be generating a lot of favorable coverage as the general favorite. But I wouldn't call him a solid favorite

I don't really have a dog in this hunt — except to say that I hope whichever horse wins goes on to win the Preakness and the Belmont, too. Horse racing hasn't had a Triple Crown winner in 35 years.

And, with the economy the way it is, I figure there's more than a nugget or two of truth in Mike Downey's column for CNN.com that looked back on Secretariat's Triple Crown 40 years ago this year.

"Desperately seeking Secretariat," writes Downey. "We could use a new you. A superhorse to make our hearts pound the way your hooves did. A four–legged stud to give us a break from cheating golfers, dog–torturing football quarterbacks and doped–up bike racers and baseball sluggers."

America could use a shot in the arm. That certainly was something that Secretariat provided 40 years ago.

But times weren't as bad in 1973 as they are in 2013. The burden of expectations is likely to be much heavier on the winner of today's Run for the Roses than it was for Secretariat — who, nevertheless, carried the weight of a 25–year Triple Crown drought on his back and still capped his Triple Crown run with an astonishing 30–length victory in the Belmont.

Secretariat, though, was a truly once–in–a–lifetime horse. None of his descendants has come close to duplicating his achievement.

But that is the magic of the first Saturday in May, isn't it? The possibility that the winner of the Kentucky Derby will go on to win the Preakness and the Belmont as well.

We shall see.

More Than Ready for Another

Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated laments the fact that "[a] generation of American adults is approaching middle age without having seen a horse win the Triple Crown."

And, as a horse racing fan, I, too, find that lamentable. But I am still enough of an optimist to believe — unlike many who follow the sport more closely than I — that it still can be done.

In my life, I have known some people who were quite knowledgeable about horse racing, and I have often heard them say that, because the first two races are much shorter than the third, to win a Triple Crown, a horse must possess both speed and endurance.

Such horses have been referred to as "super horses" at least since the time of the great Secretariat — who really was a super horse.

The distances of the Triple Crown races have varied over the years, but the distances have not changed since 1926, and all but one of the 11 Triple Crown winners have accomplished the feat since that time.

So, while it may be that it will take a "super horse" to break the drought between Triple Crown winners (which is currently 34 years), super horses weren't some sort of phenomenon that burst on to the scene, dominated the sport for a period and then disappeared.

Generations of horses have come and gone since Gallant Fox won all three races in 1930 (when it wasn't officially called the Triple Crown).

Affirmed, in 1978, was the last horse to win the Triple Crown, and I'll Have Another will be the 12th horse since that time to enter the Belmont Stakes with victories in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

The other 11 came up short, but Layden offers hope that, this time, things will be different.

I'll Have Another, Layden reports, "is so formidable because he has a useful combination of natural speed ... and stubborn cardiovascular endurance."

If that is true, the Triple Crown may well be within his grasp.

Meanwhile, I'll Have Another's preparations for his date with destiny appear to be coming along nicely. The Associated Press reports that, after two days of jogging on the Belmont Park oval, he is set to resume galloping tomorrow.

His assistant trainer was enthusiastic. "[H]e gets over the track fantastic," Jack Sisterson said, "he looked super, his energy level is high and he's doing everything we want to see him doing."

Sounds promising.

On the Brink of a Triple Crown

---

---

About midway through the week, I began searching for articles about today's Preakness Stakes in Baltimore.

I wanted to find out if veteran handicappers thought Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another had a chance of winning today's race — and, consequently, continuing to contend for the Triple Crown.

I found few articles that spoke of him the way articles in the past have lauded the Kentucky Derby winner.

That's understandable. The last time the Kentucky Derby winner went on to win the Preakness was in 2008. In fact, only 10 times since Affirmed won the 1978 Triple Crown had the Kentucky Derby winner gone on to win the Preakness. That is less than one–third of the time.

With that kind of history, horse racing writers had every reason to be hesitant to build up I'll Have Another until today's race was in the books.

Well, it is in the books now, and my guess is that we'll be hearing a lot about I'll Have Another in the next three weeks.

Because he did win today's Preakness — and it was perhaps the most exciting Preakness I have ever seen.

Once again, Bodemeister, the horse that led the Kentucky Derby most of the way, was the leader in the Preakness — again, most of the way.

And, once again, I'll Have Another overtook him at the end — and won the Preakness by a head. Literally.

Last year, three different horses won the Triple Crown races. And, at the time, I wrote that it was not so much a sign of a mediocre thoroughbred field as it was an indication that horse racing was enjoying a period of parity in which every race was competitive.

Those were exciting races, to be sure.

But anyone who is a fan of horse racing is likely to appreciate the fact that, for only the 11th time in the last 34 years, we can anticipate the possibility of a Triple Crown winner when the Belmont is run three weeks from today.

Even casual fans will know — if they don't already — that this year's Belmont will be something rare and extraordinary. It will be an event — and not, as it has been for the last three years, the anticlimactic conclusion to the Triple Crown season.

As I have mentioned here before, I teach journalism and writing to students in the Dallas County community college system, and nearly all the students with whom I have worked in the last couple of years were born at least a decade after the last Triple Crown winner.

If I'll Have Another does win the Belmont — and, with it, the Triple Crown — it will be the kind of thing that comes along once in a generation — if that.

I know many people who were born in 1979 or after — and, as a consequence, have not seen a Triple Crown winner. Some of them have died — and some may die before the Belmont is run — and will, as a consequence, never see a Triple Crown winner.

There is, of course, that one last hurdle for I'll Have Another, and it has wrecked many potential Triple Crown winners. At 1½ miles, it is the longest of the three, a quarter of a mile longer than the Kentucky Derby and more than one–third of a mile longer than the race that was run today.

After two races that emphasized speed, the Belmont prizes endurance. That is why it is known as the "Test of Champions." And it is quite a test.

We will find out if I'll Have Another is a super horse, one that is fast but can also handle long distances. Most horses are either one or the other. Triple Crown winners tend to be exceptions to the rule.

It should make for an entertaining afternoon three weeks from today.

The Remarkable Riva Ridge

---

---

Next year will be the 40th anniversary of the great Secretariat's Triple Crown run of 1973.

I expect that all of horse racing will pay homage to that extraordinary champion — and rightfully so.

But today is the 40th anniversary of the emergence of the last super horse before Secretariat came along — his stablemate, Riva Ridge.

There were other links between Secretariat and Riva Ridge. Both were owned and trained by the same stable. Both were ridden by the same jockey. They even faced off in a match race sponsored by the Philip Morris company.

In the 25 years between Citation's Triple Crown in 1948 and Secretariat's in 1973, 15 horses won two of the three races.

By far the most common of the victorious two–race combinations was the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes (the first two races), and the reason for that is simple. The Derby and the Preakness, although separated by only two weeks, are shorter races that tend to favor speed horses; the much longer Belmont Stakes, which is held three weeks after the Preakness, favors endurance over speed.

Over the years, many a speedster has jumped to a fast lead at the Belmont only to fade and burn out long before reaching the finish line. It is indeed a rare horse that possesses both speed and endurance.

But Riva Ridge, like Secretariat, seems to have been that rare horse. And he might have won the Triple Crown except for what turned out to be his Achilles' heel. He couldn't run well on a sloppy track, and rain at Pimlico prior to the Preakness made the track too sloppy for him.

That cleared the way for Bee Bee Bee, a 19–to–1 shot, to win.

Bee Bee Bee wasn't in the fields for the Kentucky Derby or the Belmont Stakes, and I still hear people arguing that, if he had, he might have been the Triple Crown winner.

That is one of those what–if questions, though. The fact remains that Riva Ridge won two of the Triple Crown races in 1972, and he won the first of those races 40 years ago today.

A moment in thoroughbred racing that is worth remembering today.

Deja Vu All Over Again?

---

---

I had kind of a strange sensation when I watched I'll Have Another win the Kentucky Derby yesterday.

It was something of a flashback to the late spring/early summer of 1973, when Secretariat won the Triple Crown.

Secretariat is probably best remembered for his dominant performance in the third jewel of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, in which he practically strolled to a 31–length victory.

But most of the folks who were old enough at the time to absorb what it was that they were seeing — and to appreciate that they were witnessing something rare and remarkable, the first Triple Crown winner in a quarter of a century — will tell you that Secretariat came from behind to win the first two races.

That was his M.O. — until that memorable afternoon in June.

While it is entirely possible that I am overlooking something obvious, I don't think I have seen anything quite like it since — at least until yesterday's Derby.

Thirty–nine years ago, it seems to me that Secretariat had to come from dead last — or close to it — to barely win the first two races of the Triple Crown. Clearly, he was a speed horse, like all the other sons of Bold Ruler, but there were doubts that he had the endurance for a truly long race like the Belmont.

Such doubts were erased in the Belmont — and, as impressive as that victory was, there were lingering questions that went unanswered until 16 years later when, after Secretariat's death, a team of veterinarians examined his vital organs and discovered that his heart was twice the size of a normal horse's.

It's still early in this year's Triple Crown campaign. The Preakness is coming up on May 19, followed by the Belmont on June 9, and no horse has won a Triple Crown in nearly 35 years — so I'll Have Another's win yesterday may have no significance in the long run.

But his Derby run reminded me of those Secretariat days.

I honestly don't know anything about I'll Have Another's lineage. Maybe, like Secretariat, he is a descendant of not only a speed horse like Bold Ruler but also a power horse like the 18th–century British horse Eclipse (who was said to have passed along an x factor trait through his daughters that produced such oversized hearts).

Maybe not. I suppose we'll know more in a couple of weeks — or five weeks, if I'll Have Another wins the Preakness.

And he didn't have to come from the back of the pack yesterday — just the middle of it.

---

---

But I'll be damned if there aren't real similarities between yesterday's race and the one that started Secretariat on his Triple Crown–winning run 39 years ago.

In 1973, Secretariat overtook his primary nemesis, Sham. Will Bodemeister — one of yesterday's pre–race favorites and the leader until he was overtaken in the stretch — turn out to be I'll Have Another's arch rival in 2012?

Time will tell.

Will Animal Kingdom Rule the Preakness?

---

---

You really don't have to be blessed with any special insights to predict that the winner of the Kentucky Derby will not win the second jewel in horse racing's Triple Crown.

Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, roughly one–third of the horses that won the Kentucky Derby went on to win the Preakness two weeks later. In the last six years, only Big Brown (in 2008) has accomplished it.

Last year's Derby winner, Super Saver, lost the Preakness, fading at the end when Lookin at Lucky seemed to come from nowhere to seize control.

Up to that point, Super Saver had been among the leaders, but, after Lookin at Lucky made his move, Super Saver was like a balloon that lost all of its air and deflated, finishing out of the money.

That's the thing that casual observers of horse racing don't really understand. A horse race isn't just a horse race. Distance matters. So does surface — and experience.

The surface will be the same as Animal Kingdom encountered two weeks ago, and the distance will be almost what it was — but the great intangible for him is the fact that his racing history is not extensive enough for anyone to know what to expect.

With a record that could be written on a cocktail napkin, Animal Kingdom is one big question mark — and that is the sort of thing that, back in the day, would have made all of my old railbird friends uneasy, to say the least.

Being the defending Kentucky Derby winner, the odds on Animal Kingdom won't reflect the absence of experience going into the Preakness on Saturday — the way they did two weeks ago — but they should.

Today, with the Preakness only days away, observers are wondering if Animal Kingdom, a 20–1 shot when he won the Derby, can keep alive for a while longer the dream that a horse will win the Triple Crown this year.

That is the question. It's as clear as it can be. Can he do it?

The answer is not as clear. Not yet.

Yes, says a National Thoroughbred Racing Association poll. (I could be wrong, but I get the sense that the respondents are towing the company line, trying to build some enthusiasm momentum for the possibility of a Triple Crown.)

It's possible, writes Andrew Beyer of the Washington Post. " It would be natural to suspect that Animal Kingdom's victory might be another Kentucky Derby aberration," he says, "[y]et an examination of the race indicates that his performance was legitimate."

No, writes Ray Kerrison of the New York Post. He spoke to a horse racing expert who told him that, for at least two reasons, he can't see Animal Kingdom winning the Preakness.

We will get some answers on Saturday.

And Now For The Really Hard Part ...

---

---

Did you watch the Kentucky Derby yesterday?

Animal Kingdom was the surprise winner.

Well, I say "surprise" — but, in fact, everyone was saying this was the most wide–open Derby in a long time. I saw a comment from one trainer prior to the race who said that nearly all of the 19 horses had at least a shot at winning the race. Only one or two could be considered legitimate upsets, he said.

I don't know if he considered Animal Kingdom to be one of them, but it is true that it has been, as Alicia Wincze Hughes writes for the Lexington Herald–Leader, an "unpredictable" time for 3–year–olds.

Consequently, she just might be right when she says the 20–1 shot was the "perfect specimen" to seize the moment in the Kentucky Derby.

I didn't hear much about Animal Kingdom before the race. Most of the attention was on the other horses. That was to be expected, I guess. He didn't have a very impressive resume.

But I expect to hear a lot about Animal Kingdom in the next two weeks. His days of relative anonymity are over.

For those who follow horse racing to any extent, this may be the most intriguing time of the year. The legendary Triple Crown is out there to be won, and the Preakness is the next jewel.

The Triple Crown hangs in the horizon like something of a mirage, as it always does for the Kentucky Derby winner. The picture becomes a bit clearer if the Derby winner also wins in Baltimore two weeks later — but that is no guarantee of eventual success in the Belmont in June as many of the jockeys who rode Kentucky Derby winners in the last 33 years could tell you.

This is the hard part for Animal Kingdom. The weight of horse racing history hangs heavier with each passing year.

Since Affirmed claimed the 1978 Triple Crown, about two–thirds of the Kentucky Derby winners have come up short in the Preakness. In those years, horse racing's Triple Crown hype has been short lived.

And, even when they have won the second jewel of the Triple Crown, even when they have looked like foregone conclusions in the Belmont, it hasn't worked out that way.

Now it is Animal Kingdom's turn. Can he do what so many others have failed to do? This is the longest drought between Triple Crown winners, but the truth is that it has always been an elusive achievement. Between 1919 and 1978, only 11 horses won the Triple Crown.

Mark Beech of Sports Illustrated seems to think it is possible this year. Yes, he agrees, Animal Kingdom was an unknown quantity before yesterday's race — but don't underestimate him.

He's been improving in every start, Beech writes, and he is "modestly bred, with the pedigree of a turf runner, which in plain English means he should be able to run all day long."

Time will tell.

Some Pre-Derby Thoughts

---

The Kentucky Derby inspired the late Dan Fogelberg
to compose "Run For The Roses" 30 years ago.

---

In about six hours, the 137th Kentucky Derby will be run at Churchill Downs.

The Derby has been called "The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports" and "The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports."

But some years — especially, it seems, this year — deciding which one to support — or, more to the point for many, which one is worthy of a wager — is much more time consuming.

I've been scouring the internet this morning, and I haven't found a consensus yet.

Earlier in the week, there seemed to be a modest consensus building that Uncle Mo was a potential winner. But he was scratched yesterday.

But even when Uncle Mo was scratched, that did not eliminate the early favorite. That was Dialed In — and Alex Brown of the New York Times says he looks good to go today.

"[I]f he is your pick," writes Brown, "then he certainly looks ready to run a great race."

Jennie Rees writes, in the Louisville (Ky.) Courier–Journal that it is more difficult to predict the outcome of this year's race than ever.

In the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Johnny Love writes that he prefers "multiple bets" when you have a field as large as the one that is typical of the Derby — and this year's Derby (assuming there are no more scratches) has 19 entrants.

Love likes deep closer Nehro — but, if the track is sloppy, he prefers pacesetter Soldat. (Incidentally, the latest weather forecast I have seen calls for a 50% chance of rain and temperatures in the upper 60s.)

He says he likes Dialed In. "Just don't like him as [the] favorite."

Pia Catton writes in the Wall Street Journal that "[s]ince there's no easy, clear favorite, this is the sort of year that those of us who consider ourselves once–a–year railbirds need to do some actual research. If you're not careful, this can become a life–warping vortex of hours vaporized on the Internet."

It's an "impossibly tough decision," says the headline in the Journal, but, confides Catton, "I love the gutsiness of Mucho Macho Man."

Catton openly concedes a preference to see Archarcharch win. Archarcharch showed a "burst of speed" in the Arkansas Derby, but "[m]aybe he can't sustain it for the 10 furlongs," Catton frets. "Maybe he'll get boxed in."

Gene Menez of Sports Illustrated doesn't hesitate to say that Archarcharch is one of the best bets in today's Derby field.

But Menez also advises would–be gamblers to "Pick a name out of a hat. Close your eyes and point. Or better yet, go by colors, numbers and names. Any method of handicapping ... is just about as good as any other."

They've all got their drawbacks.

Brad Telias of The Sporting News says today's race became "an even more wide–open affair" with Uncle Mo's withdrawal.

Uncle Mo's departure, in other words, did not muddy up this field, regardless of whether it rains today or not. It was already muddy.

And that, says Tim Layden in Sports Illustrated, is bad news for everyone.

"What's good is greatness," Layden writes. "When there is greatness, that opens the door to both historic achievement and earth–shaking upsets. Wide open means mediocre and everybody here knows it, even if nobody contesting the race is saying it."

I suppose that makes it clear what the real challenge is.

It isn't winning today's Derby — although doing so will be an important achievement.

The challenge will be whether the winner of today's race can rise above expectations, above the level of mediocre to the rarified air of contender for the first Triple Crown in 33 years.

Monarchos' Run for the Roses

---

---

I remember, when I was a young boy, watching Secretariat's remarkable Kentucky Derby victory in 1973.

Actually, all of Secretariat's races were remarkable that spring and early summer, and I guess it would be hard to single out any one of his triumphs en route to the Triple Crown. They were all special.

Secretariat truly did some amazing things in 1973. On the afternoon that he won the Belmont Stakes (the third and final jewel in the Triple Crown), he won by an incredible 31 lengths. That was a record, but, to be fair, it was accomplished against only a handful of horses, and none was close to being Secretariat's equal.

He went from last to first on the first turn of the Preakness Stakes (the second jewel of the Triple Crown) and wound up winning by 2½ lengths.

But 38 years ago at Churchill Downs, running in what has long been called the "Fastest Two Minutes in Sports," Secretariat did something no other horse had ever done before. He finished it in less than two minutes (1:59 2/5, to be exact) — and he ran each quarter–mile faster than the one he had just completed.

---

---

(Here's some little–known trivia for you. Secretariat wasn't the only horse to run the Derby in under two minutes that afternoon. Runnerup Sham was 2/5 of a second behind.)

I never saw a horse like Secretariat — before or since. There may have been one that was almost as good — but that was before my time.

And I never thought I would see that performance in the Derby duplicated. But 10 years ago today, I saw another horse break the two–minute barrier at Churchill Downs.

His name was Monarchos, and he was ridden by Jorge F. Chavez. I can't say I remember what the final odds were in the 2001 Kentucky Derby (I've never paid close attention to the odds in a horse race unless I had a wager on it), but I gather that Monarchos was something of a longshot. He paid $23.00, $11.80 and $8.80. The place horse, Invisible Ink, must have been an even longer shot. He paid $46.60 and $21.20.

That made for some really astonishing payoffs in the exotic wagers that were available.

Exotic wagers often post some eye–popping payoffs, even when the odds on the horses are relatively low, but those payoffs in 2001 were really unusual. A $2 exacta ticket with those two horses on it paid $1,229. A $2 trifecta ticket with those two horses and the show horse, Congaree, paid $12,238.40. And a $1 superfecta ticket, with those three plus the fourth–place finisher, Thunder Blitz, paid $62,986.90.

May 5, 2001, was a great day to bet on longshots.

Last I heard, Monarchos was recovering from colic surgery.

And the outlook is good — for Monarchos, that is.

Not necessarily for anyone who hopes to see that two–minute barrier broken again at Churchill Downs on Saturday — although stranger things have happened.

The Derby Draws Nigh

The 137th Kentucky Derby will be run a week from today, and no clear favorite is drawing the media attention — yet.

That's right. The first jewel in the Triple Crown will be awarded to someone in seven days, and we have no real idea who it might be.

It's been more than 30 years since a horse won the Triple Crown. That's the longest dry spell since the Triple Crown came into existence. The last time a horse won the Triple Crown, it was almost routine. It was the third time it had happened in six years, and most people who witnessed it — either in person or on TV — probably expected to see it again.

I know I did.

In many years, the betting public has had a pretty good idea which horse was likely to win the first jewel. A few times, it has seemed to be preordained.

But "[t]his is not one of those years," writes Kevin Van Valkenburg in the Chicago Tribune. "In fact, if you have $2 and a hunch, you might have just as good a shot as the experts ... even if you barely know the difference between a furlong, a furlough and a fur coat."

It is anybody's race, agrees Beth Harris for Associated Press.

"I have been watching the Kentucky Derby avidly for almost 30 years," says T.O. Whenham at Doc's Sports Service. "In that time I don't remember seeing a class as confounding and underwhelming as this one."

When it is like that, gamblers look for anything that will give them an edge, and Richard Linihan of the Tulsa World provides a few "things you may need to know" in pursuit of such an edge.

My guess right now is that a consensus of sorts will begin to form in the coming days as the horses go through their workouts and the observers assess what they have seen.

It probably won't be as wide open next Saturday as it appears today.

But we shall see.