Who's Gonna Win, Alabama or Georgia?

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So now it comes down to the matchup everyone expected in the SEC Championship — until Auburn upended Georgia and rival Alabama in the regular season. But Auburn couldn't beat Georgia in the SEC Championship and missed a chance to play for the national title.

Now the fourth–ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (12–1) will face the third–ranked Georgia Bulldogs (13–1) for the national championship tonight starting at 7 (Central) on ESPN. I expect a classic defensive struggle in true Southeastern Conference fashion.

It is a battle that will be waged on many levels.

It is a battle between mentor and protege. Georgia coach Kirby Smart served on Alabama coach Nick Saban's staff until accepting his current position. This will be the 12th time Saban has faced one of his former assistants. So far he has won them all.

Most people probably expected to see the Heisman winner, Oklahoma senior QB Baker Mayfield, in the title game, but the Sooners lost a double–overtime classic to Georgia in last Monday's semifinal in the Rose Bowl.

That seems to make it less likely that the championship game will be an aerial show, which is probably for the best since both teams are in the Top 10 in pass defense. A good quarterback can still cause some problems for a good pass defense, as Mayfield demonstrated in completing 23 of 35 passes for two touchdowns and 287 yards against Georgia, but the quarterbacks for Alabama and Georgia, as talented as they are, are not close to his level yet.

While Mayfield was second in the nation in passing yardage, Georgia's freshman quarterback Jake Fromm was 60th and Alabama sophomore Jalen Hurts was 73rd. Both have potential, but both are still young and developing.

Hurts, however, does have the advantage over Fromm in the sense that he has been here before. Alabama came up just short in last year's national championship game against Clemson. It wasn't his fault. Hurts threw for one touchdown and ran for another, and the Crimson Tide played turnover–free football, but Alabama yielded three touchdowns in the final quarter to blow a 10–point lead.

Alabama junior wide receiver Calvin Ridley was No. 41 nationally in receiving yardage with 935 yards this season, making him the most prolific receiver on the field tonight. No other receiver in tonight's game finished in the Top 100.

That also seems to make it more likely that the game will be a battle on the ground, but neither team has a Top 10 runner. The closest is Georgia senior Nick Chubb, who ranked No. 26 with more than 1,300 yards and a per–carry average gain of more than 6 yards, but he has the No. 38 back, senior Sony Michel, to share the load.

Chubb and Michel — regarded by some as the best rushing twosome in college football history — will be challenged by Alabama's second–in–the–nation run defense.

Georgia is pretty good against the run, too. The Bulldogs' run defense ranks No. 18, which should be adequate against the nation's 61st–best rusher, junior Damien Harris. Hurts is dangerous when he runs the ball, too, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, but he only runs the ball about 11 or 12 times per game. If Hurts isn't able to throw against Georgia, he may have to do more running than usual.

Although the teams have faced each other 67 times, this will be the first time they have met since Oct. 3, 2015. Georgia has won less than 40% of the time and hasn't beaten Alabama since 2007. That, incidentally, was Georgia's third consecutive win against the Tide, continuing a pattern that has been characteristic of this series since the early '90s.

Since that time, one team wins three in a row, then the other team wins three in a row, then the first team wins three in a row and so on. Alabama's victory in 2015 was its third straight against the Bulldogs. According to the pattern of the series, that means Georgia will prevail tonight.

But Alabama was established as a 4½–point favorite once the matchup was certain. Is that significant? Well, I read that, since 2010, Alabama has been favored in all but one game — the exception being that game against Georgia in 2015.

Of course, the Tide has lost a dozen times since the start of the 2010 season — all games in which they were favored — so point spreads are not infallible. But Alabama's record is impressive.

The teams have met six times in Atlanta, with each winning three times. The last time they played there was in the SEC Championship in December 2012. Alabama was the winner. Georgia hasn't beaten Alabama in Atlanta since 1942.

So now it is time for me to make my final college football pick of the 2017 season. I've done pretty well in the postseason — but not so much in the national playoffs. I predicted Oklahoma and Clemson would be playing tonight, and you can see how well that worked out!

I hope I'm wrong again, but I really believe that Alabama will prevail.

National semifinals: 0–2

Bowls: 10–3

Overall: 222–52

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 4–1

Overall upset specials: 17–24

Drop the Pretense

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"The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members' evaluation of the teams' performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head–to–head results and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable."

College Football Playoff website

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Let's just stop pretending that conference championships really matter now when deciding who will play for the national championship.

Conference championships used to matter back in the days of the BCS.

But in the days of a four–team playoff field, what matters is rankings and records, not conference titles.

Just ask Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat previously undefeated Wisconsin to claim the Big Ten crown, but they lost two games this season.

I've been wondering for weeks if the committee would permit a two–loss team to participate in the college football playoffs, and now we have our answer. In the brief history of the college football playoffs, no two–loss team had been included. It will remain that way this year.

As today dawned, it was common knowledge that Clemson, Oklahoma and Georgia had secured spots in college football's playoff. The drama centered on whether Ohio State, the Big Ten champ with two losses, or Alabama, a one–loss team that did not play for its conference crown, would round out the field.

That was the choice — Ohio State or Alabama. No other options.

I have also been wondering whether the committee would allow two teams from the same conference to be in the playoff field. With a field that is restricted to only four teams, I have believed that more balance was required to build national support for the playoff concept.

Again, the choice came down to Ohio State or Alabama. No other options.

Ohio State could have provided the diversity that was needed, and the Buckeyes won their conference, but they lost twice during the regular season.

With Alabama, the field leans heavily toward the South. The Crimson Tide did not win the Southeastern Conference, but Alabama did lose only once — to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

So the integrity of the record was upheld, but the integrity of conference championships and geographical balance was not.

I have been an advocate of a larger playoff field for a long time. I believe that would provide the committee with plenty of opportunities to generate geographical balance and allow other deserving teams to have a shot at winning it all.

If you take today's rankings as an example, a playoff field involving the top eight teams would produce plenty of balance this season, driving up fan interest from coast to coast. As it is, I have to wonder how high the ratings will be in the Upper Midwest or on the West Coast.

Today's selection of Alabama and exclusion of Ohio State hastens the day when the playoff field will be expanded to eight teams. I don't know when that will happen. It could be as soon as next season, or it might be a few years beyond that, but it is coming.

Of that I am sure.

The King Isn't Quite Dead

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Well, I told you so.

Last week it was the trendy thing to do to pick #3 Florida State to turn back #1 Alabama in their much–ballyhooed season–opening battle.

A victory for the Seminoles, it was said, would accomplish two things — it would dislodge Alabama as the king of college football (even though, technically, Clemson is the defending national champion) and the SEC as the dominant football conference. It would be the dawn of a new era, they said, in which Florida State and the ACC would be college football's gold standard.

And there were a lot of folks jumping on the Florida State bandwagon.

But a funny thing happened en route to this brave new world.

Alabama beat Florida State soundly 24–7, just as I predicted last week. OK, maybe I didn't anticipate the margin, but the king clearly isn't dead and likely only faces two or three legitimate challenges — if that many — between now and what probably will be the Crimson Tide's 12th appearance in the Southeastern Conference's championship game.

No, the outcome in Atlanta didn't surprise me.

And I wasn't really surprised that Maryland gave #23 Texas a rough time. As I wrote about a month ago, I thought Texas was overrated — and I definitely still think so after Maryland's victory in Austin last weekend.

In an email conversation with a friend of mine the next day, we agreed that new Texas coach Tom Herman was bound to be on the hot seat after such a dismal debut and with Southern Cal, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State looming in the not–so–distant future.

The sports writers in Austin seem to be giving Herman some room, acknowledging that the Longhorns are "the same players that lost to Kansas" last season.

But I grew up in this part of the country, and I know how impatient Longhorn fans can be. They might not be saying it right now, but the honeymoon is over for Herman. Now comes the hard part. It was always going to be the hard part, but it was made harder still by a 10–point loss to an 18–point underdog.

Kirk Bohls of the Austin American–Statesman wrote that Herman (only the third head coach in UT history to lose his very first game — and one of the prior two had a legitimate excuse, having lost on the road to an Auburn team that would lose only once that season) was baffled by Texas' tendency to be its own worst enemy.

I am tempted to compare the Longhorns to Donald Trump and his inclination to send out Tweets at the drop of a hat. Both seem to have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot, and it is far from clear whether either will be able to right the ship in time to save it.

The Longhorns' long–time rival Texas A&M appeared to be on the brink of a major road upset, but the Aggies allowed UCLA to rally from a 34–point deficit for a 45–44 victory.

Looks like both coaches will be squirming on the hot seat this season.

Friday

• #11 Oklahoma State at South Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools. South Alabama will probably hope it will be the last.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.

Saturday

• Fresno State at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Alabama has only lost three games at home since 2012 — and each loss was to a national contender (at least after that team beat 'Bama).
  
  Fresno is coming off a 1–11 season. I hardly think Fresno will be 'Bama's fourth home loss since 2012.
  
  I pick Alabama.
• #5 Oklahoma at #2 Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's been almost 40 years to the day since Oklahoma's only other visit to Ohio State. The Sooners won that game, 29–28, on Uwe von Schamann's 41–yard field goal with only a handful of seconds remaining.
  
  Then as now, the game featured two teams from the Top 5. On that day, Oklahoma was ranked third and Ohio State was ranked fourth.
  
  I'm expecting another good, close game. And since the visiting team always wins in this series (when the teams played in Norman in 1983, Ohio State won, and the Buckeyes won again in Norman last season, 45–24), I choose Oklahoma in a modest upset special.
• #13 Auburn at #3 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: For the first half of the 20th century, these teams faced each other nearly every year.
  
  But they have only met five times since the 1971 season — and two of those games were in postseason bowls.
  
  Historically Auburn has dominated the series, winning more than 70% of the time. But Clemson has won the last two meetings.
  
  And my guess is that Clemson will make this its third straight win.
• Pittsburgh at #4 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: For most of the 20th century this was an annual in–state rivalry that got national attention every November, but it has been almost 17 years since their last meeting.
  
  Pittsburgh has been good but not great for the last several years. Penn State struggled for awhile in its transition from the Joe Paterno era but seems to be back on track. I expect home–field advantage to lift Penn State to victory.
• #14 Stanford at #6 Southern Cal, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Historically Southern Cal beats Stanford about two–thirds of the time.
  
  But Stanford has won seven of the last 10 meetings, including the Pac–12 Championship Game in 2015.
  
  I pick Stanford in an upset special.
• Montana at #7 Washington, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Washington is on its way up.
  
  I don't know anything about Montana, but I doubt that it will be much of a game.
  
  Washington is the choice.
• Cincinnati at #8 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After the way the Wolverines manhandled Florida last week, I'm a believer.
  
  I choose Michigan.
• Florida Atlantic at #9 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I can't see this one staying close for long.
  
  I pick Wisconsin.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #10 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After losing to Alabama last week — and it is certainly no disgrace to lose to Alabama — I expect the Seminoles to bounce back.
  
  Florida State should have no problems.
• Chattanooga at #12 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: It's hard for any visitor to win at LSU.
  
  For Chattanooga it should be impossible.
  
  I choose LSU.
• #15 Georgia at #24 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: It has been more than 36 years since the last time these teams met. It was New Year's Day 1981, and top–ranked Georgia beat seventh–ranked Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, 17–10.
  
  The setting is not nearly so dramatic this time — and Georgia clearly has no Herschel Walker in the backfield this time — but I predict the same outcome. I choose Georgia.
• #16 Miami (Fla.) at Arkansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: I grew up in Arkansas, and this may be the highest–profile team to play in Jonesboro.
  
  I don't know if Arkansas State is any good, but I can't imagine ASU staying in this one for long.
  
  I pick Miami.
• #17 Louisville at North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This one might actually be close for awhile.
  
  North Carolina has been to bowls in the last four seasons and even had an 11–win season in 2015.
  
  Louisville holds a 4–3 lead in the series, but the teams are tied at 2–2 in games played at North Carolina.
  
  While the home field may help the Tar Heels for awhile, my pick is Louisville.
• Delaware at #18 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACC Network: There is no reason why this one should be close.
  
  Virginia Tech will win.
• Charlotte at #19 Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central): The oddsmakers don't think this will be competitive, and neither do I. The oddsmakers make Kansas State a 35–point favorite. I agree.
  
  The pick is Kansas State.
• Boise State at #20 Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Washington State has won all four of the previous meetings with Boise State, but the teams haven't met since 2001.
  
  In the interim Boise State has had some pretty good teams. Only recently has Washington State been regarded as one of the nation's best.
  
  The Cougars are favored by 10. I can go along with that. The pick is Washington State.
• #21 South Florida at Connecticut, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNEWS: UConn went 3–9 last year. One of those losses was by 15 points at South Florida.
  
  Sounds about right, even though UConn is at home this time. My pick is South Florida.
• Northern Colorado at #22 Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The bookies aren't taking bets on this one anymore, and who can blame them?
  
  Florida should win easily.
• #23 TCU at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: When I was growing up, these two teams played in the Southwest Conference, which meant they faced each other every year.
  
  It was practically an automatic win for the Razorbacks, who lost to TCU for the first time in my lifetime when I was in college.
  
  Things have changed for both schools, and they have only met once since the SWC disbanded, but Arkansas won that encounter. I predict that Arkansas will win this one, too. It's another upset special since TCU is picked by a field goal, but it seems like old times ...
• Indiana State at #25 Tennessee, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The only time that I can recall that Indiana State had a team worthy of national attention was when Larry Bird played basketball there.
  
  I fully expect Tennessee to triumph.

Last week: 18–3

Overall: 20–3

Last week's upset specials: 0–2

Overall upset specials: 0–2

And the National Champion Will Be ...

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National Championship

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14–0) vs. #2 Clemson Tigers (13–1)
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa
7 p.m. (Central)
ESPN

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I'm a history buff, and I tend to look at things from the perspective of history. The topic doesn't matter. Everything has a history, and that history can tell us a lot. It's a matter of recognizing what history is trying to tell you.

It is often said that history repeats itself. I tend to agree with Mark Twain, who said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." Usually, there's a lot of rhymin'.

The history of the Alabama–Clemson football series is that Alabama has dominated. To be fair, Clemson did win the first two meetings, which were in 1904 and 1905. Alabama has won the 13 games that have been played since — including last year's national championship game.

So history would suggest that Alabama will win the national championship in Tampa — because Alabama always beats Clemson.

But past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What is true of past seasons may prove to be true of the just–concluded regular season, but it is important to consider how these teams performed in that 2016 season. It has more relevance than what happened a century ago — although what happened in the past does contribute to mindset. As Vince Lombardi said, "We would accomplish many more things if we did not think of them as impossible."

You can argue that Alabama will win tonight's game because it won a stronger conference — or, at least, one that is perceived to be stronger — than the conference Clemson won.

But Clemson's Atlantic Coast Conference has beaten Alabama's Southeastern Conference in three out of four bowl confrontations last month.

In most football games, the quarterback is regarded as the position that is most critical to a team's success. In the national rankings in nine categories, Alabama QB Jalen Hurts was in the Top 20 in only one — completion percentage. He was 16th. That's a good thing, right? It is — except that Clemson's Deshaun Watson, the Heisman runner–up, was ranked eighth.

Hurts, a freshman, and Watson, a junior, attempted almost the same number of passes so it is a valid comparison — and Watson was in the Top 20 in seven categories and was usually in the Top 10. He threw 38 touchdown passes, and Hurts threw 21, but Watson threw 17 interceptions (Hurts threw nine).

Junior wideout Mike Williams is the receiving target Alabama most needs to stop. Williams caught 90 passes for 1,267 yards for Clemson, but the Crimson Tide can't afford to ignore sophomore Deon Cain, who averaged 19.1 yards per catch.

Running back isn't the focus of either offense. Alabama's Damien Harris averaged 7.2 yards per carry — but he only averaged about 10 carries per game. Clemson's Wayne Gallman ran for 16 touchdowns (Harris ran for only two), but his rushing average was a more pedestrian 5.1 yards per carry.

On defense, Clemson senior defensive tackle Carlos Watkins had 10½ sacks this season. But, as a team, Alabama's defense was the best in the nation this season. The Crimson Tide was one of only three teams to give up less than 100 yards rushing per game (the other two were Wisconsin and Western Kentucky) and forced an average of 1.9 turnovers per game (same as Clemson).

And Alabama yielded an average of 11.4 points per game; no other defense gave up fewer points, on average, this season.

Ultimately, I am inclined to think that the defense will make the difference, but, while oddsmakers say Alabama is a 6½–point pick, I am more of the mind that Alabama will win by three points.

Last week: 9–7

Overall: 204–72

Postponed: 1

Last week's upset specials: 2–3

Overall upset specials: 14–24

An Early Look at the National Championship

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Now, we're down to one more game in college football. Well, it will be the last one after the final whistle blows tomorrow.

Clemson and Alabama are headed to Tampa for the rematch that few saw coming, and I'll be making my prediction on that game about a week from now.

Well, I saw it coming. I predicted both would win in my prediction column last week. True, Clemson was an upset special — at least as far as the bookmakers were concerned — but I was more impressed with what I saw from Clemson during the season than I was with what I saw from Ohio State. As I wrote, I had a feeling that Clemson would win.

Not sure if Clemson was 31 points better, although that sure is what it was last night.

Alabama and Washington combined for 31 points as well, but at least Washington was responsible for a touchdown — the first score of the game. I really thought the Ohio State–Clemson nightcap would be a good game.

And I am hopeful that the Alabama–Clemson rematch will be good. It was a 45–40 finish last year, and you know Clemson is eager to avenge that loss.

Dieter Kurtenbach of Fox Sports writes that it could be a long night for Alabama if Jalen Hurts doesn't get better throwing the ball in the next eight days.

'Bama is an early seven–point pick.

My guess is the spread will be closer by kickoff.

Who Will It Be, Alabama or Clemson?

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And now, we are down to the final game — #1 Clemson vs. #2 Alabama. You can see the game on ESPN Monday night starting at 7:30 p.m. (Central). It will be played in University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

My record in the bowl season was good but not spectacular. I was 10–6 in my picks. That is a .625 accuracy percentage. As I say, it was good. Not great.

But I must say that I am rather proud of my record in the college football semifinals. I picked Clemson over Oklahoma and Alabama over Michigan State. Right — in both cases. Neither game was even close.

Now the tough part. Picking which one will win the national title. I expect this one to be closer, much closer.

One thing I can say without fear of contradiction is Alabama's been there — frequently — in recent seasons. It seems like it's been that way all my life. Oh, sure, I know Alabama has been through dry spells, but very little really seems to have changed since I was a boy and Bear Bryant was on the Alabama sideline. Bryant brought six national titles to Tuscaloosa, and Alabama fans grew up during his tenure with a kind of sense of entitlement that is still there. Call it Alabama affluenza.

If Alabama wasn't in the national championship conversation, so the thinking seemed to go, it was an off year. But that wouldn't last long. It never did.

The Bear never had a Heisman Trophy winner, either. Nick Saban has had two, and one of them, Derrick Henry, is on the current roster.

Yet, in spite of all that, Clemson's offense is ranked higher than Alabama's. Clemson has the sixth–ranked offense in the nation. Alabama's 35th–ranked offense is respectable, not spectacular.

Both teams are very good on defense. Alabama's defense, which always gets attention, is ranked third, and Clemson's is ranked 13th.

My guess is that it will be a defensive game, and Alabama's defense will be tested by Clemson's sophomore QB, Deshaun Watson, and sophomore running back, Wayne Gallman. Gallman headlines the 11th–best run offense in the nation.

That is where the game is likely to be decided. The Crimson Tide has been tough against the run all year; in fact, Alabama is ranked #1 in the land against the run, which suggests that Clemson may struggle to score.

If Clemson does struggle on the ground, the Tigers might turn to their passing game, which was #19 in the nation. Alabama's defense was ranked #31 against the pass so there may be some opportunity there. Watson was 18th in the nation in passing yards, he completed more than 68% of his passes, and he had 31 touchdown strikes — and he was only sacked 13 times. And yet ...

Alabama junior defensive lineman Jonathan Allen is a beast at 6–foot–3 and weighing in at 272 pounds. He finished sixth in the nation in sacks with 12. Junior linebacker Tim Williams chipped in 11.

Run defense is Clemson's Achilles' heel if you want to call it that. The Tigers are #32 against the run, which is better than most but not as good as some. It might be good enough against Alabama, though, which is ranked #23 in run offense even with the Heisman winner in the backfield.

Speaking of the ground game, Henry led the nation in rushing with 2,061 yards (including the 75 he picked up against Michigan State on New Year's Eve). You can be sure the Tigers will keep an eye on him.

Historically, I suppose there is considerable motivation for Clemson. Alabama leads the all–time series 12–2. But I seriously doubt that anyone living remembers the last time Clemson beat Alabama. It was on Oct. 25, 1905 in Columbia, S.C.

Alabama has beaten Clemson 12 straight times, and the Tigers' highest score in any of those games was 14 points on Oct. 26, 1968. More often than not, Alabama has shut out Clemson.

Bryant went 5–0 against Clemson, and his teams did shut out Clemson the first time he faced the Tigers and the last time he faced them. Clemson scored in the three games that were played in between. In the Tigers' entire 12–game losing streak against the Tide, Clemson has only scored in five games.

I'm sure the Tigers will score in this one. After all, Clemson hasn't been shut out since Aug. 30, 2003, when the Tigers lost to Georgia.

Actually, I think the Tigers will do better than score. I predict that Clemson will defeat Alabama.

Last week: 10–6

Upset specials last week: 1–3

Season: 198–58

Upset specials overall: 9–17

The Bear Centennial

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"If we had been more vigilant, September 11 would still be known as Bear Bryant's birthday."

Actor Fred Thompson

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If Bear Bryant still lived, today would be his 100th birthday.

But, as I observed in January, he's been dead for 30 years.

In Alabama, they've been working on plans for the centennial birthday celebration for more than a year. It hasn't been an easy task. The director of the Paul W. Bryant Museum lamented last year that the problem was deciding what could be omitted.

Bryant's life story really was like that. Every moment seems to be so significant that to leave out anything is to somehow diminish the life.

Frankly, it reminds me of the disclaimer at the start of the movie "Gandhi" — "No man's life can be encompassed in one telling."

And so it is with the Bear Bryant story.

(Last night, on the eve of Bryant's 100th birthday, I saw a post from the Huntsville (Ala.) Times about Bryant's last letter. "Bryant would frequently reply to fan mail," writes Melissa Brown, "even in January 1983, the month he passed away."

(Apparently, many of those fans believe they received the last letter Bryant wrote.)

It was just as hard, I suppose, to decide what the most appropriate salute should be.

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About the only thing that would be truly appropriate on this occasion would be if Alabama or Texas A&M, the schools where Bryant left his mark as a coach, could play a game today. But this is Wednesday, and college football teams rarely play games in the middle of the week.

However, college football teams do play on Saturdays, and Alabama and Texas A&M will be playing each other in College Station this Saturday.

That is so perfect that it almost certainly was planned. Considering the stature Bryant has in this game, it might well have been planned even if the two schools were not competing in the same conference.

Let me say right now that I have seen no evidence that it was planned — but Alabama and Texas A&M are conference rivals now (they weren't in the Bear's day), and the modern Southeastern Conference is so big now that it has two divisions. Members of a division always play each other — they alternate their games against teams in the other division, but they always play the teams in their own division.

Alabama and Texas A&M are in the same division. Last year, they played in Alabama, and A&M handed Alabama its only loss of the year (en route to its second consecutive national title). The Aggies' quarterback also became the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy.

There's enough intrigue surrounding that game to entice even the Bear — and that would have taken some doing in his lifetime. He must have faced off against just about every major football coach in the country at one time or another.

I know for a fact he faced Joe Paterno at least once because I was there. My family and I went to New Orleans to see the Sugar Bowl one year, and Alabama was playing Penn State.

In a quarter of a century as the head coach at Alabama, Bryant faced and defeated Bob Devaney, Ara Parseghian, Bud Wilkinson, John McKay, Lou Holtz, Woody Hayes, Tom Osborne, Barry Switzer. He never faced Bo Schembechler, and he never managed to beat Darrell Royal in four tries.

And Bryant once faced Frank Broyles, the longtime head coach at my alma mater, the University of Arkansas. Bryant won, and I've always been struck by an irony. After the 1941 season, during which Bryant was an assistant coach at Vanderbilt, he was offered the head coaching job at Arkansas.

I guess a little historical background is needed here. Fred Thomsen had been Arkansas' coach since 1929, and he had done some good things for the Razorbacks. He won the Hogs' first Southwest Conference title in 1933 — when Bryant was playing end for Alabama — but the title was forfeited when it turned out he had used an ineligible athlete.

Thomsen also popularized the forward pass at Arkansas. He even had different quarterbacks, depending on conditions — one for wet weather and another for dry weather. He had good years and bad years through 1937, and if he had left after that season, his name probably would be revered today on the Arkansas campus and, indeed, throughout the state.

But the Hogs went 13–25–2 from 1938–41, and there were rumblings among the fans (according to a book on the Razorbacks that was co–written by one of my former Arkansas Gazette colleagues) that the program needed a "name" coach to revive it.

Thomsen had enlisted in the service after Pearl Harbor, and it came as a surprise to his wife that the Board of Trustees, authorized by the state legislature, arranged to cut him a check — and, in the process, cut the school's ties with him — while he was serving his country abroad.

At the same time, apparently, the school was pursuing Bryant (who was born in Arkansas) to lead the team, but Bryant had enlisted in the Navy. So Arkansas endured some misfires at the head coaching position before finally getting a long–termer in Broyles in 1958, the same year Bryant went to Alabama.

Arkansas fans can only wonder what might have been if the war had not interfered. Broyles had some great years at Arkansas — he even shared a national title with Bryant once — but his career was not even close to Bryant's. In all honesty, no one's was.

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When Bryant died 30 years ago, the people of Alabama lined the highway overpasses in respectful silence to watch the funeral procession go by.

I can think of no other figure from Alabama who commanded that kind of respect — not firebrand politicians, not Supreme Court justices, no one.

The Bear was one of a kind.

There Was No One Like the Bear

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"His nickname was Bear. Now imagine a guy that can carry the nickname Bear."

Joe Namath

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Until I breathe my last breath, I will remember watching football games on TV with my father when I was growing up.

We didn't have a TV until I was in elementary school, but once we got one, my memory is that we always watched college football on Saturdays and pro football on Sundays — and then, when Monday Night Football came along, I watched those games with my father, too.

(Well, I watched the first halves. When the game reached halftime, I knew it was time for me to go to bed — and I would drift off to sleep listening to the banter from the broadcast booth coming from the TV in our living room.

(On rare occasions, my parents would permit me to stay up and watch a game to the end. I always felt a little more grown up at those times, the same as I did whenever my parents allowed me to stay up to watch Johnny Carson.)

I guess one of the nice things — one of the reassuring truths — of life in those days was the certainty that some things never changed.

Tom Landry was always the coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Woody Hayes was always the coach of Ohio State. Joe Paterno was always the coach of Penn State.

In Arkansas, where I grew up, Frank Broyles was always the coach of the Razorbacks. When he announced his retirement in 1976, I was shocked. Who would coach the Hogs? I wondered. Broyles had been the Razorbacks' only coach in my lifetime — and I was in my teens when he stepped down.

I simply could not imagine anyone else walking the sidelines that Broyles had walked all those years.

(Ironically, one of the things I always enjoyed as a student at the University of Arkansas when I attended football games was being able to watch Broyles' hand–picked successor, the hyperactive Lou Holtz, doing precisely that — but in his own Woody Allen–like fashion.)

Bear Bryant was much the same way. He wasn't the only man to coach Alabama's football team, but he was Alabama when I was growing up. I'm sure there were thousands of people in Alabama who grew up in those days who believed — to some extent — that the 'Bama coaching job was created for Bear Bryant — and would cease to exist without him.

He was always easy to spot, even if one was seated a great distance from the field — and I speak from experience on that. Once, I attended a Sugar Bowl in which Alabama participated. My seat was in the nosebleed section, but I could still spot Bear Bryant.

He was an imposing figure, and he always wore his trademark houndstooth hat — sometimes with a matching jacket — to football games. Well, there were exceptions. He didn't wear his hat when Alabama played in a domed stadium. Once, I recall, he was asked about that, and he said his mother raised him to take off his hat when he was inside.

Because of that, I didn't get to see him wearing that hat in person. That Sugar Bowl was played in the Superdome.

There were other Southern coaches who wore hats to games — in the pros, for example, Landry did and so did Bum Phillips. Like the Bear, though, most of them wouldn't wear a hat when a game was being played indoors, either.

But I believe Bryant was the first.

When I was a child in the 1960s, George Wallace was the state's most prominent, most popular (and most notorious) politician. Bear Bryant was probably the only man in Alabama who could have beaten Wallace in a race for anything.

In the long and storied history of college football, there was never anyone like the Bear. He coached Alabama for a quarter of a century and averaged a national title about every four years. When he retired at the end of the 1982 season, he had won more games than any other college football coach.

In the last 30 years, Bryant has been surpassed in total victories by a handful of coaches who had the good fortune of playing more games in a given year and who really only needed to break even to receive a bowl bid.

The team Bryant took over in 1958 had won only eight games in the previous four seasons. Bryant led the Crimson Tide to five wins in his first season alone and then proceeded to take the Tide to bowl games in 24 consecutive seasons (1959–1982) — at a time when bowl bids really meant something.

Bowl bids were more precious in the Bear's day. There must be three or four times as many bowls today as there were then. Today's bar is ridiculously low.

Yet winning was even more routine at Alabama in those days than it is today. Whenever a Bryant–coached Alabama team lost — to anyone — it was big news. Stop the presses news.

Bear Bryant died 30 years ago today. That was big news, too.

But it probably wouldn't have surprised the Bear, had he known of it.

The night of his final game, a 21–15 Liberty Bowl victory over Illinois, he was asked what he would do in retirement. "Probably croak in a week," he replied.

It was actually a month later, but his words were prophetic. He passed a routine physical on Jan. 25, 1983 but died the next day.

His cause of death was given as a heart attack, but it was actually a combination of health issues he had been battling for three years. His doctor said Bryant's battle had been "heroic," TIME magazine reported — but his motives for staying at Alabama weren't entirely altruistic.

About the only reason he stayed was to complete his pursuit of the title of winningest college football coach of all time.

He did reach that pinnacle in 1981, and he stayed on to coach another season, but he felt his performance was sub–par.

"[I]n my opinion, they deserved better coaching than they have been getting from me this year," Bryant said of his players. And he chose to step down.

A month after his last game, he was dead.

I will always remember when I heard that Bryant had died. I was working for a small newspaper in central Arkansas where the custom was for the most junior staffer to cover the police and fire beats, which occasionally meant covering trials in the county courthouse.

I was the most junior staffer in January 1983.

On this day in 1983, I was sitting in a courtroom. I don't recall now what kind of trial was being conducted, but I remember there was some kind of break, and I was sitting in the courtroom with a few other people when the bailiff came in and, with an ashen look on his face, said simply, "Bear Bryant died today."

The news was delivered in the same somber tones that are often reserved for the announcement of the death of a president or a pope.

A few minutes later, the judge came in and told us, in the same somber tones, that the court would adjourn for the remainder of the day. As I walked out of the courthouse, I saw some folks lowering the American flag to half staff.

Ordinarily, the courthouse wouldn't lower the flag unless a former president or governor had died. But they lowered the flag that day in honor of a football coach who coached and died in another state.

I suppose it helped that he was born and raised in Arkansas. Nevertheless, that is the kind of respect Bryant enjoyed.

There was no one like the Bear.

All Shook Up

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The college football landscape shifted last weekend when Texas A&M upset the top–ranked team in the nation, Alabama.

And some Aggie hearts beat a little faster at the thought of playing in the SEC Championship game next month — but the fact is that Alabama, which is still the highest–ranked team in the SEC, almost certainly will be playing for the conference title.

Alabama has only one conference game remaining — against 2–8 Auburn in the 71st edition of the Iron Bowl next Saturday. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but the notion that this Auburn team might hand Alabama its second conference loss is just a little far–fetched, it seems to me.

However, just to play devil's advocate, let's say that Auburn pulls off an upset. That could mean a tie in the SEC West with either Texas A&M or LSU or both. That much isn't clear yet. A&M might stumble against Missouri, and LSU might falter against Ole Miss or Arkansas. Neither is likely, but they remain possible until the games are played.

What would be clear is that the SEC's streak of six consecutive national titles will end.

That may be the case, anyway. Top–ranked Oregon may be playing for the national title in January, but the Ducks must beat three straight ranked teams to get there.

Kansas State might be able to punch its ticket for the January showdown in its last two games, but that remains to be seen — as it does for the nation's third–ranked team, Notre Dame.

The next couple of weeks promise to be very interesting.

Idle: #18 Texas, #20 Louisville

Today

• #14 Stanford at #1 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I know there is a lot of talk on the West Coast these days about Oregon possibly playing for the national championship.
  
  Such talk was going on even before Alabama lost to Texas A&M last weekend, but now that Oregon is in the top spot, I suppose it has accelerated.
  
  Certainly, Alabama's loss put additional pressure on the Ducks, who were sure to be feeling more stress this week, anyway, with their upcoming game against #14 Stanford — and, if the Ducks win that one, there will be even more pressure when they face their in–state rivals from Oregon State the following week.
  
  Then, of course, if the Ducks win those two games, there will be the pressure of the Pac–12 Championship game, which figures to be against the winner of today's game between USC and UCLA.
  
  Neither Kansas State nor Notre Dame will have to play in a conference championship game, but the Irish will have to play #21 Southern Cal on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
  
  In fact, K–State may have the easiest road to the national championship game of the top three. After facing Baylor this weekend, the Wildcats have the next week off before closing the season against #18 Texas. (Not that beating Texas will be easy, but at least the Wildcats will get to face the Longhorns on their home turf.)
  
  But back to the Oregon–Stanford game ...
  
  The historical record suggests that Stanford would be a lot better off playing this game at home where the Cardinal have beaten the Ducks nearly 63% of the time. When the game has been played in Eugene, the Ducks have been victorious more than half the time.
  
  Oregon has by far the better offense. Ranked third in the country, it is light years ahead of Stanford's 84th–ranked offense.
  
  It's not entirely bleak for Stanford, though. The Cardinal defense may pose the stiffest challenge that Oregon will face in Pac–12 play this year (even though the Oregon State game is looming next week).
  
  But I still think Oregon will prevail at home.
• #2 Kansas State at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Well, even though KSU is undefeated and Baylor is just barely flirting with the .500 mark, this might not be quite so easy for the Wildcats.
  
  KSU is 4–0 at home against Baylor, but the Wildcats are just 3–2 at Waco — and Baylor has beaten K–State the last two times they have played there.
  
  The Bears have the better offense by far. Baylor is #2 in the nation in that category (compared to K–State at #47). But defense, they say, wins championships, and the Wildcats' 34th–ranked defense is much better than Baylor's (#120).
  
  I figure KSU will have its ups and downs against Baylor's offense — but when the Wildcats have the ball, they almost can't help being productive against the Baylor defense. Only one of Baylor's 10 opponents has failed to score at least 23 points, and most have scored at least 35. Kansas State, on the other hand, has scored 44 points or more six times this season.
  
  (Some of those points were scored by the defense, but most of them were scored on offense.)
  
  It seems obvious to me that Kansas State will win this game.
• Wake Forest at #3 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams met for the first time last season, and Notre Dame, en route to an 8–5 mark, won the game, 24–17.
  
  That game was played at Wake Forest. This time, the teams meet in South Bend.
  
  As I mentioned, Notre Dame has the challenge of facing USC next week, but, as long as the Irish don't overlook the 5–5 Demon Deacons, they ought to be undefeated when they face the Trojans.
  
  After all, Notre Dame's eighth–ranked defense should dispose of Wake Forest's 111th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has been adequate but not great, Wake Forest's defense appears ill–equipped to stop it.
  
  Notre Dame should win.
• Western Carolina at #4 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I can't understand why anyone would want to televise this game — but, for some reason, many teams in the Top 25 are facing non–Division 1–A opponents this weekend — and, barring any extremely unforeseen developments, they should have no trouble.
  
  One would think that Alabama, with the second–best defense in the land, would be unimpressed with Western Carolina. I fully expect Alabama to win.
• Georgia Southern at #5 Georgia: This game has a lot in common with the Alabama game — one of the best SEC teams is playing at home against a non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Unless something really unexpected happens, I believe Georgia will win.
• #6 Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams almost always have winning records when they face each other.
  
  And Ohio State almost always wins.
  
  The Buckeyes have been much more successful at home, but they've been successful against Wisconsin wherever the game has been played. At Wisconsin, Ohio State is 25–11–2 — but the Badgers have won two of the last three games that were played there.
  
  And logic suggests that, if Wisconsin can make it three of four, the Badgers (who would then be 8–3) will return to the Top 25.
  
  I think it should be a good game. Ohio State has the better offense, but Wisconsin's defense currently ranks in the Top 20 nationally — and should be up to the task of stopping the Buckeyes.
  
  I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Wisconsin in a mild upset.
• Jacksonville State at #7 Florida: Like the Alabama and Georgia games, I see no reason why the home team should lose to this non–Division 1–A team.
  
  Florida should win easily.
• Ole Miss at #8 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Known as the "Magnolia Bowl," this rivalry dates back to the 19th century.
  
  Its heyday came in the 1950s and 1960s, when both teams brought lofty rankings and winning records into their annual clashes (they even met in the Sugar Bowl once).
  
  In a sort of general view of sports history, not much has changed for LSU, which is ranked eighth in the land, but Ole Miss (5–5) has struggled.
  
  Ole Miss has the better offense, but LSU's defense (#3 in the nation) seems well prepared for it.
  
  That — and home field, where LSU is 37–23–1 against Ole Miss — seems likely to propel LSU to victory.
• Sam Houston State at #9 Texas A&M: This must seem like a real breather to the Aggies, who have won eight of their last nine games (the exception being a five–point loss to LSU last month).
  
  And, after winning on the road against the top–ranked team in the nation last week, Texas A&M simply can't be impressed with Sam Houston State.
  
  A BCS bowl berth is possible for the Aggies if they keep their eyes on the prize, and I see no reason why they shouldn't do that today. Texas A&M should win this game.
• #10 Florida State at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much reason, frankly, for Maryland fans to watch this game — either in person or on TV.
  
  Historically, Florida State has won 20 of the 22 meetings between the schools and has never lost at home — so I guess there is one good thing about this game for Maryland fans. It's being played in College Park, not Tallahassee.
  
  It could be depressing for Terps fans when they have the ball. Maryland's offense is the worst in the land while Florida State's defense is the best. Things might be much better for Maryland when Florida State has the ball. The Seminoles are #11 in the country in offense, but the Terps, who are 16th in defense, might be able to stop them.
  
  One wonders, though, if the Terps might stop themselves. Statistically, Maryland's offense is –10 in turnovers, and the thought of cashing in on that and beefing up the defensive statistics must be motivating for FSU's defense.
  
  On the flip side, I wonder if Florida State can maintain its focus, knowing that its annual rivalry game with #7 Florida is only a week away.
  
  Can Maryland win? I doubt it. I pick Florida State.
• North Carolina State at #11 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When North Carolina State beat Clemson last year, it snapped a seven–game Clemson winning streak against the Wolfpack.
  
  But the 6–4 Wolfpack still have plenty to play for — like a more prestigious bowl appearance — and Clemson could well be distracted by next week's game with South Carolina.
  
  But if Clemson's offense (seventh in the nation) remains focused, it should be able to dominate N.C. State's defense (61st in the country) and give the Tigers the winning edge. I figure Clemson's defense (#57 in the land) is evenly matched with N.C. State's offense (#59).
  
  I pick Clemson.
• Wofford at #12 South Carolina: I really thought South Carolina would struggle after losing its marquee running back to an injury a few weeks ago.
  
  But the Gamecocks have persevered, and they should be 9–2 after beating this non–Division 1–A foe — if they don't start daydreaming about their game next week against #11 Clemson.
  
  I don't think they will. I think South Carolina will win.
• #13 Oklahoma at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It should be rather cold in West Virginia tonight.
  
  I used to live in Oklahoma so I know the OU players are accustomed to the cold weather, but this isn't like what they have been dealing with lately. It's going to be in the mid–50s (at best) during the day, and temperatures are expected to decline rapidly after the sun goes down.
  
  It's a modest series to date — only four games have been played — and the teams have never played in Morgantown so this will be a first — and a chilly one at that.
  
  The offenses are pretty even — OU is #16, West Virginia is #18 — so that means defenses probably will be decisive — and that is where OU (#20) has a huge edge over West Virginia (#110).
  
  I predict that Oklahoma will win.
• California at #15 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: I'm sure it must be tempting for the Beavers to overlook the Bears with the showdown with #1 Oregon coming up next week, but a loss to the Bears would knock Oregon State out of the running for the Pac–12 championship game.
  
  Well, they're probably out of the running for that, anyway, what with Stanford and Oregon playing each other today. Oregon is undefeated and Stanford only has one loss in Pac–12 play whereas Oregon State has two conference losses. Logic says the winner of the Oregon–Stanford game will represent the division in the conference championship game.
  
  But, as this day begins, a three–way tie at the top of the division is still mathematically possible and, if that happens, I don't know what the Pac–12's tiebreaker would be.
  
  If there is to be such a tie, two things must happen this week: Stanford must beat Oregon this afternoon and Oregon State must beat California tonight.
  
  I have already predicted that Stanford will not hold up its end of the bargain, but Oregon State has a significantly better defense than California. Both offenses are rather average so defense figures to dominate in this game.
  
  Consequently, I will pick Oregon State.
• Minnesota at #16 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I have found that many people mistakenly believe that, because Nebraska is a newcomer to the Big Ten, its series with most of the members of the conference are rather sparse.
  
  That may well be the case with some of the schools, but Nebraska has a long history with Minnesota. They've played 52 times — but last year, Nebraska's first in the Big Ten, was the first time the teams had faced each other in more than two decades.
  
  Nebraska's win in 2011 was its 15th straight against Minnesota. The Gophers haven't beaten the Cornhuskers since 1960, and it is hard to imagine 6–4 Minnesota topping an 8–2 Nebraska team that has lost only to #17 UCLA and #6 Ohio State.
  
  Especially since Nebraska enjoys such a huge advantage on offense (the Cornhuskers are #17 in the country while Minnesota is #96). Minnesota actually has the edge on defense, but it is narrow (Minnesota is #25; Nebraska is #28).
  
  On the strength of a superior offense and the home field advantage, I choose Nebraska.
• #21 USC at #17 UCLA, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was a kid, the USC–UCLA game was one of the top rivalry games that was televised every year — usually during the Thanksgiving season.
  
  USC usually won the game as it has throughout history (the Trojans have won about 61% of the time, and they've won 12 of the last 13) — but the thing that should concern this USC football team about this UCLA team is that UCLA has the #13 offense in the nation — and the third best in the Pac–12, a conference that is known for flashy offenses.
  
  Southern Cal has a pretty good offense, too (#28), and logic says it shouldn't have much trouble with UCLA's #75 defense. But neither should UCLA's offense have too much difficulty with USC's #58 defense.
  
  It seems to me to be a matter of which offense executes its game plan the most effectively. I'm guessing it will be UCLA.
• Utah State at #19 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Here's something I'll bet you didn't know — Louisiana Tech has the top–ranked offense in the nation.
  
  OK, maybe you did know it, but even if Utah State knows it, it can't be very encouraging — especially since Louisiana Tech has won six of the last seven meetings between the schools.
  
  Tech (9–1) should not take the 8–2 Aggies lightly, though. That Bulldog offense will be taking on the 12th–best defense in the nation. And Tech's offense better come through because Tech has one of the worst defenses in the nation while Utah State's offense is 28th.
  
  I pick Utah State.
• #22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: This series dates back to 1980, but it has really only been a regular thing since the teams became conference rivals.
  
  It's one of those series that goes in waves. Back in the 1980s, Rutgers was the regular winner, then they played a couple of times in what was, in hindsight, a transitional period in the 1990s (split decision), and Cincinnati has been the dominant program in the early 21st century (although Rutgers did snap a five–game Bearcat winning streak in the series last year).
  
  If it is true that defense wins championships — or, at least, wins games — Rutgers, with its 14th–ranked defense, should have no trouble with Cincinnati (98th in the nation in offense).
  
  Cincinnati's defense (#44) might be able to compete with Rutgers' offense (#33), but if the Rutgers defense forces Cincinnati to commit turnovers (and Rutgers has been particularly good at making the other team fumble the ball away this season), it really might not matter what happens when Rutgers has the ball.
  
  I pick Rutgers.
• #23 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This really should be an entertaining game.
  
  Both offenses are in the Top 10. OSU's is slightly better, but it will have the challenge of facing Tech's 18th–ranked defense.
  
  Tech's three losses have been to ranked teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas). OSU has lost to Texas and K–State, too; OU is coming up next week. The Bedlam Series is always a big attention grabber in Oklahoma, and OSU has been good enough — and successful enough — in recent years (the Cowboys snapped an eight–game losing streak to the Sooners last year) to make folks in Oklahoma wonder if OSU can win two in a row against OU for only the seventh time in the last century.
  
  The Cowboys can't afford to be distracted by such thoughts this week — but my guess is they will. Texas Tech in what may well be regarded as an upset.
• Iowa at #23 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series is more than a century old, and Michigan has been in the driver's seat practically from the beginning.
  
  Well, Iowa did win the first encounter back in 1900 — but then won only one of the next 16. A pattern was set.
  
  Iowa fans are not accustomed to experiencing losing seasons, but the prospect is suddenly very real, now that the 4–6 Hawkeyes are on a four–game losing streak and must defeat both Michigan today and #16 Nebraska next week to finish 6–6.
  
  Michigan's offense hasn't been too horrifying, but the Wolverines' defense, which is 11th in the nation, has been.
  
  And it is because of the defense that I pick Michigan to win.
• #25 Kent State at Bowling Green, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have faced each other every year since 1962, and Bowling Green has thoroughly dominated the series, 40–9.
  
  Only recently has Kent made a series of it, winning the last two and three of the last six.
  
  And Kent (9–1) might make it three in a row with its superior offense.
  
  But Bowling Green (7–3) has the sixth–best defense in the country. The Falcons have only given up 20 points or more three times — but they have lost on all three occasions.
  
  I tend to favor good defenses, especially when the weather turns cold — as it is sure to be in Ohio this weekend.
  
  Consequently, I pick Bowling Green.

Last week: 17–4

Season: 174–44

Alabama, LSU Meet in National Title Rematch

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Alabama celebrated the Crimson Tide's 14th national title
after a 21–0 victory over LSU in New Orleans last January.

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The last time LSU and Alabama met on a football field, Alabama won the game, 21–0, and the national title.

That was in New Orleans — officially "neutral" territory — last January.

The last time the two teams met in Baton Rouge, in November 2010, the Tigers won, 24–21.

But that was the exception to the rule. Over the years, Alabama has compiled a 24–8–3 record at Tiger Stadium — which is actually better than the Tide's record against the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

However ...

Baton Rouge hasn't been that cozy for the Crimson Tide lately. Alabama has won only two of the last six games the teams have played there.

They first met in 1902, but the series was sporadic until about halfway through the 20th century. Alabama dominated things during Bear Bryant's tenure, and it seems to me the series lost a bit of its luster until about 25 years after Bryant retired — when Alabama hired former LSU head coach Nick Saban, setting up the first "Saban Bowl" in 2007.

Considering that Saban has won a couple of national titles at Alabama since that time, I guess this is just the latest installment of the "Saban Bowl."

And for you trivia buffs out there ...

Since we are only a few days away from Election Day, I thought it would be interesting to see if there are any historical trends. Actually, one trend over the years has been that Alabama and LSU played each other a Saturday or two following an election. It is only in the last couple of election years that the teams have played just before an election.

But, just for kicks, I thought it would be interesting to see what the series might be able to tell us.

Alabama and LSU have played every year since 1964. In that time, 12 presidential elections have been held. Republicans have won seven, Democrats have won five.

In those presidential election years, Alabama has won eight of the head–to–head matchups with LSU, and LSU has won four. While there are exceptions, it appears that the Democrat usually wins if Alabama defeats LSU, and the Republican usually wins if LSU defeats Alabama.

And, in every election since 1984, the Republican has won the presidency if LSU defeated Alabama, and the Democrat has won the presidency if Alabama defeated LSU.

Idle: #9 Florida State, #11 South Carolina

• #1 Alabama at #5 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: History favors the Crimson Tide in this series — wherever the game is played.
  
  But Alabama has also been better on both offense and defense. Considering that the Tide boasts the top–ranked defense in the nation and a quarterback who "does everything," in the words of his coach, it's hard to see how Alabama could lose.
  
  With a month to go in the season, it is still possible that LSU and Alabama could meet in a rematch for the national title, just as they did last year. But only if LSU wins this game — and that should give the Tigers some additional motivation.
  
  But I don't think LSU is going to win. My pick is Alabama.
• #2 Oregon at #18 USC, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Southern Cal has dominated this series — especially at home, where the Trojans are 24–6–1 against the Ducks.
  
  The Ducks did win the last time they visited the Trojans, but that was, well, the exception to the rule.
  
  Given their rankings, though, it would seem that the Trojans will need more than the home field advantage.
  
  Unfortunately, they lag behind the Ducks in both offense and defense — which makes me think the Ducks will once again buck the historical trend. I'm picking Oregon.
• Oklahoma State at #3 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Since they first met in 1917, Oklahoma State has won nearly two–thirds of the games played between these two schools.
  
  But not so much lately.
  
  Oh, sure, the Cowboys have won four of the last five. But K–State won nine in a row before that, and the Wildcats had won six straight at home before Oklahoma State won there in 2010.
  
  Honestly, I think this year's game could be a dandy. OSU has the top–ranked offense in the nation (KSU is ranked 43rd). Kansas State's 30th–ranked defense is better than Oklahoma State's (#43), but one wonders if it has what it takes to stop J.W. Walsh (the #11 passer in the land) and Joseph Randle (the #9 rusher).
  
  But I think Kansas State may be the most lightly regarded third–ranked team in recent memory. Look at what the Wildcats have done so far. They are undefeated through eight games, a schedule that has included trips to Oklahoma and West Virginia, and the remaining schedule includes (after today's game), trips to TCU and Baylor and a regular season–concluding home game against Texas.
  
  There aren't many breathers on Kansas State's schedule, but the Wildcats seem to keep each other emotionally balanced — especially at home, where they have seldom lost in recent years.
  
  I'll take Kansas State.
• Pittsburgh at #4 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: A week after what had to be an emotional road win over Oklahoma, Notre Dame faces Pittsburgh, a team the Irish have beaten 46 times.
  
  But the series (recently, at least) has been nothing if not competitive. Seven of the last eight meetings were decided by a single score.
  
  My guess is that, if today's game is that competitive, it's likely to be a low–scoring game dominated by the defenses. And Notre Dame, with its 11th–ranked defense, gets the nod.
• Illinois at #6 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The good news for the Illini in this series is they have actually fared better on the road (where they have won about 39% of the time) than at home (where they have won about 25% of the time). In fact, Illinois has won three of the last five games that were played in Columbus.
  
  But there is plenty of bad news — on so many levels. For one, Ohio State has dominated the series (winning about 67% of the time). For another, the Buckeyes are 12–3 against Illinois since 1995. For yet another, Ohio State has won the last four in a row.
  
  And one more thing, as Columbo used to say ...
  
  Ohio State's offense (ranked 45th in the land) is infinitely better than Illinois' (109th).
  
  Illinois' defense is ranked higher than Ohio States's, but the difference is so modest (45th and 59th, respectively) that it seems likely that offense will determine the winner. I think it will be Ohio State.
• Ole Miss at #7 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: With Georgia's win over Florida last week, the Bulldogs are in the driver's seat in the SEC East.
  
  All they really have to do is win their last two SEC games — against Ole Miss and Auburn — and they will be in the SEC Championship game for the second consecutive year.
  
  That shouldn't be too much of a challenge as far as the Auburn game is concerned. The Tigers, who won the national title a couple of years ago with Cam Newton at quarterback, have fallen on hard times (their only win this year was in overtime against Louisiana–Monroe).
  
  But Ole Miss might be another matter. The 5–3 Rebels are a respectable 47th in both offense and defense. They aren't ranked ahead of the Bulldogs in either category, but they could be capable of giving Georgia some fits. QB Bo Wallace has completed about two–thirds of his passes, and Jeff Scott is averaging better than five yards per carry.
  
  Georgia, however, holds the historical advantage. The Bulldogs have won more than 70% of their encounters with Ole Miss, including their last nine games.
  
  But Ole Miss' last win over Georgia came in Athens in 1996. The Rebs have struggled on the road against Georgia, though, and the Bulldogs might have enough momentum to overwhelm them this time.
  
  I'm inclined to think Georgia will win. But I also think it will be an entertaining game, and I plan to watch it.
• Missouri at #8 Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These teams have played each other only once before — and that was nearly 50 years ago, in the 1966 Sugar Bowl.
  
  It was a good game, probably better than the one that will be played today. Neither team has been particularly impressive on offense this year (Florida is 100th nationally, Missouri is 109th) so if you like offense, this game probably isn't for you.
  
  But the Gators have the sixth–best defense in the nation, and Missouri's defense is ranked 25th so I would expect some defensive fireworks.
  
  I also expect Florida to prevail.
• #10 Clemson at Duke, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the 53rd time these teams have met since 1934, and Clemson has won 68% of the time.
  
  Duke has already qualified for a bowl berth, its first in nearly 20 years, and, if everything falls together just right, these teams might meet for a second time this season — in the ACC Championship game.
  
  But much work remains to be done before that happens. Duke is currently tied with North Carolina and Miami (Florida) for the lead in the ACC's Coastal Division, and Clemson trails Florida State (who beat the Tigers in September) by half a game in the Atlantic Division.
  
  Both teams have sufficient motivation, but the marquee unit in this game is Clemson's offense, which is 14th in the nation.
  
  Duke has every reason to be proud of what it has achieved — and what it may yet achieve — this season. But Duke's 75th–ranked defense figures to have trouble with Tajh Boyd (who has completed more than 67% of his passes) and Andre Ellington (who is averaging better than five yards a carry).
  
  I have to choose Clemson.
• Temple at #12 Louisville, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have played five times in the past — three times in the '80s.
  
  And their most recent meeting came in 2006 so there really isn't anything in their history that could be considered relevant to the current squads — except for the fact that Louisville has won the two meetings between the schools in the 21st century (Temple hasn't beaten Louisville since 1983).
  
  Along with having a two–game winning streak in the series, Louisville is ranked higher in both offense and defense — but note that this isn't your father's Louisville team that had such a fearsome offense. Louisville is middlin' (as folks often said about people and places and things when I was growing up) in that category these days — defense is Louisville's strong point in 2012.
  
  Defense is Temple's strength as well, but the Owls are only middlin' in that category, and their offense is one of the worst in the land. I believe Louisville will prevail.
• Arizona State at #13 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Unexpectedly, Oregon State has been a contender in the Pac–12 North this season. Ditto for Arizona State in the Pac–12 South.
  
  Both trail in their respective divisions by only ½ a game. The leaders in their respective divisions, USC and Oregon, will meet earlier in the day so, by the time this game kicks off, one squad will know that it really has its back to the wall.
  
  And that should give one of these teams a real sense of urgency.
  
  But, right now, the identity of that team is the unknown factor.
  
  I must make my pick based on what is known. And this is what is known:
  
  These teams first met in 1961, and they have been playing annually (with the exceptions of two seasons) since 1987. In all, Arizona State has won nearly 70% of the time, and the Sun Devils almost never lose to Oregon State at home.
  
  But there's the catch. This year, the game is in Corvallis, Ore., and the Beavers have won the last three times the teams have played there. In fact, if Oregon State wins, it will knot up the all–time series in Oregon.
  
  The outcome may be decided when Arizona State (with the nation's 18th–best offense) has the ball. Oregon State will counter with the 33rd–ranked defense. Can the Beavers handle the fifth–best passer (Taylor Kelly)? They'd better because Arizona State's defense is also in the Top 20, and Oregon State's offense is middlin' at #55.
  
  I think it will be a close game, but I believe Oregon State's home crowd — and the fact that I think Oregon will beat USC — will motivate Oregon State to defeat Arizona State.
• #14 Oklahoma at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: I've mentioned before that OU had probably its worst football teams during the time when I was on the faculty there.
  
  It was certainly the worst the football team has played in my lifetime.
  
  But even in those days, the Sooners always beat the Cyclones. Always. This will be their 77th meeting, and OU has won all but seven of those games (two were ties). OU hasn't lost to Iowa State since 1990, and its winning percentage in Ames, Iowa, is even higher than it is in Norman, Okla.
  
  Oklahoma probably has a Top 10 football team. The Sooners lost a close one to Kansas State in September and lost by a wider margin to Notre Dame last week. With two losses, OU is out of the running for the national title — and probably out of the running for the conference title.
  
  But I expect Oklahoma to win the game. As always.
• #15 Stanford at Colorado, 1 p.m. (Central) on FX: If this was the World Series, it would be the seventh and deciding game.
  
  These teams have played six times, and the series is knotted at 3–3. It would certainly be a dramatic story if this was baseball. Stanford has won the last three games — after Colorado won the first three.
  
  But, in reality, Colorado hasn't beaten Stanford since 1990. And both teams are undefeated on their home turf. Stanford welcomed Colorado to the conference with a 48–7 blowout at Stanford. But now Stanford must travel to Colorado — without Andrew Luck, who has moved on to the NFL.
  
  Even so, Stanford really hasn't missed a beat, and I expect a Stanford win today.
• #16 Texas A&M at #17 Mississippi State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Aggies have truly enjoyed a remarkable first season in the SEC.
  
  Sure, they have lost to LSU and Florida, but those are two perennial powers in the conference. They have exceeded everyone's expectations and can only qualify for better bowl bids with each win.
  
  But Mississippi State has had a pretty good season, too — an unexpectedly good season, and the Bulldogs have a 3–2 historical advantage against the Aggies. But, with the exception of the 2000 Independence Bowl, all the other games were played before World War II.
  
  Nevertheless, this will be the first time the teams have faced each other in Starkville. A new chapter in the series will be written there today.
  
  The marquee matchup should come when the Aggies (ranked fifth on offense) have the ball against Mississippi State's 28th–ranked defense. If the Bulldogs can stop the Aggies, they might have a chance (MSU's offense is 66th while A&M's defense is 35th).
  
  Texas A&M should win by a touchdown.
• San Diego State at #19 Boise State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: These teams met for the first time last year, and Boise State won, 52–35.
  
  It doesn't seem like a lot has changed. I think Boise State will win.
• Texas at #20 Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams are old rivals, going back long before Tech joined the Southwest Conference in 1960.
  
  It is a spirited rivalry, as Tech coach Tommy Tuberville told the Dallas Morning News, because so many players have friends on the opposite sideline, and at least one of the teams (usually Texas) has often been ranked when they have met.
  
  But seldom — if ever — has Texas Tech been the ranked team when the teams have played.
  
  In this series, I guess the most memorable moment came when the Red Raiders beat the Longhorns on the last play of the game in 2008. But the Longhorns have won the last three, including their return to the scene of the crime — Lubbock — two years ago.
  
  And now, here they are in Lubbock again, but the Longhorns are unranked while the Red Raiders are #20. And Texas Tech has the 11th–ranked offense in the country (Texas' is 38th). Texas Tech also has the #12 defense in the country (Texas' is 96th).
  
  I think Texas Tech will win, but it might be closer than these numbers would suggest.
• #21 Nebraska at Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Historically, these teams have met six times (including twice when Michigan State was not yet classified Division 1–A). Nebraska has won all six games.
  
  When this season began, a lot of people probably figured these teams would be fixtures in the Top 25. But both fell out of the rankings fairly early, and Nebraska has only recently worked its way back in.
  
  The highlight–reel moments should come when the Cornhuskers have the ball and their 15th–ranked offense must face MSU's #5 defense. Nebraska's defense (ranked 26th) should have no trouble with Michigan State's 96th–ranked offense.
  
  Nebraska should improve to 7–0 against Michigan State.
• Texas–San Antonio at #22 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN–Plus: UTSA is really more of a basketball school.
  
  There isn't much to say about this one. I pick Louisiana Tech.
• TCU at #23 West Virginia, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have played only once before — in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl, which was won by West Virginia, 31–14.
  
  Now that the schools are in the same conference, this might be the beginning of a pretty intense series.
  
  In spite of recent setbacks, West Virginia still has one of the best offenses in the college game. The Mountaineers are 13th; the Horned Frogs are 48th.
  
  But the catch is on defense. TCU is 23rd in the nation while West Virginia is 114th (I suspect that ranking is in large part due to the fact that West Virginia has yielded 212 points in its last four games — victories over Baylor and Texas and losses to Texas Tech and Kansas State).
  
  I guess the question (well, it's a two–parter) is this: Is West Virginia's defense as good as the statistics from September would lead you to believe? Or is it as bad as it has appeared in its last four games?
  
  I'm going to go with TCU. My rationale is based on some common opponents.
  
  The Frogs didn't look particularly good in their loss to Iowa State (who will play West Virginia in three weeks) in early October, and their defense did give up a touchdown more to Texas Tech than the Mountaineers did — but the Frogs played three OT periods with Tech.
  
  And the Mountaineers gave up three times as many points to Baylor as TCU did.
  
  I think it will be close, but I will go with West Virginia at home.
• #24 Arizona at #25 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This could be the most intriguing Pac–12 game of the week.
  
  The Oregon–USC game probably will get more attention, but Arizona is coming off a big win over USC — and it was accomplished in spite of an apparent concussion suffered by Arizona's quarterback.
  
  It doesn't get much more dramatic than that, even if the drama was realized in hindsight.
  
  Aside from all that, Arizona has won the last two times it visited UCLA. In fact, the Wildcats have won the last five in a row — and are 6–1 against UCLA since 2005.
  
  But UCLA has a few things in its favor. The Bruins' defense is ranked higher (but that, as my father likes to say, is like the Polish beauty contest — there are no winners. UCLA's defense ranks 76th in the nation and Arizona's is 110th).
  
  However, Arizona has a decided advantage on offense. The Wildcats are fourth in the country (again, UCLA ranks 76th). On that basis, I pick Arizona to beat UCLA.

Last week: 12–7

Season: 141–37

BCS Chaos

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I have made no secret of my distaste for the so–called Bowl Championship Series — or BCS — that is supposed to match the two best college football teams in a national championship game at season's end, even though neither team must earn its spot in a playoff system.

Unless one or both must play in a conference championship game.

But no champions from other conferences must be conquered to reach the national title game. Only the pollsters and computers must be persuaded of the teams' worthiness — and they need not be familiar with the teams they choose.

In fact, there probably are coaches who vote in their poll or sports writers who vote in their poll who have had little, if any, exposure to the teams that ultimately are anointed to play for all the marbles.

That is my greatest gripe about the BCS system, I suppose.

Let's assume, if only for a minute, that LSU wins the SEC championship game against Georgia. A case can be made that the participants in that game earned their berths on the field — and, since the championship game will be played on a day when there will be very few other college football games, it is logical to assume that most, if not all, of the coaches who participate in their poll and the sports writers who participate in their poll will see the game.

But week in and week out, how many coaches do you suppose take time out from their own game preparation responsibilities to familiarize themselves with three or four dozen college teams by watching tape of and/or reading articles about them?

For that matter, how many sports writers take time from their coverage of local or regional programs to view the tapes and read the articles relating to those same three or four dozen college teams from around the country?

Probably few in either instance.

But, like lemmings allegedly committing mass suicide when they migrate, they follow the group. What may have begun as the perception of a few becomes a self–fulfilling prophecy.

Unless fate intervenes.

Fate intervened this weekend.

LSU, the top–ranked team in the nation, almost surely will remain where it was when the weekend began.

But #2 Oklahoma State as certainly will drop after its double–overtime loss to Iowa State on Friday night — a development that was doubly shocking. The Cowboys were expected to whip the Cyclones, even before the news reached the team that the OSU women's basketball coach and one of his assistants were killed in an airplane crash in central Arkansas.

News of the tragedy was expected to serve as even more motivation for the Cowboys — but it didn't.

They were stunned, I guess — or maybe they were simply lethargic. Their big showdown with Oklahoma is two weeks away — and the Cowboys have next week off. How could 10–0 Oklahoma State, with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, Texas and Kansas State, get excited about playing 5–4 Iowa State?

Whatever it was, the Cowboys lost the game.

Folks were still absorbing that news when a couple of other bombshells were dropped on the Top 10.

First, the other Oklahoma school went down in spectacular fashion. The once–beaten Sooners faced Baylor University, a team that had never beaten Oklahoma in 19 previous attempts. In fact, it had been more than a decade since Baylor even came within two touchdowns of OU.

But, on Saturday night in Waco, Texas, the Bears beat the fifth–ranked Sooners — pretty convincingly, too.

And, as that equally shocking development was playing out in the heart of Texas, there was even more.

Fourth–ranked Oregon was losing its second game of the season. The Ducks' first defeat was way back at the beginning of the season in a Labor Day weekend clash with LSU. Oregon had been craving a rematch in the national championship game, but the loss to 18th–ranked Southern California undoubtedly put an end to any such hopes.

It can be argued, for that matter, that Oklahoma is also out of the national championship conversation. And, although they have only one loss, that one loss — to a six–win team — is probably too devastating for the Oklahoma State Cowboys to overcome.

Well, I've been saying it would take a state of utter chaos to build momentum for the implementation of a playoff system — and we may be witnessing the start of such a state.

But I want it to go beyond what has happened this weekend.

On Friday, my alma mater, the University of Arkansas (ranked sixth when the weekend began and certain to move up in the rankings later today following a 44–17 victory over Mississippi State yesterday) will travel to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Baton Rouge can be a scary place for most football teams — but not necessarily for Arkansas.

Sure, the Razorbacks are 1–4 in Baton Rouge since 2001, but all but one of those games were decided by three points or less. And the Razorbacks have won three of their last four games against the Tigers.

Another victory is not out of the question — and it could propel the Razorbacks into the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Especially if Auburn upends currently second–ranked Alabama in Saturday's Iron Bowl. If you're scoffing at that notion, let me remind you that Alabama–Auburn is a rivalry of long standing — and rivalries like that operate in spheres of their own.

There are other things that could happen in other games to change the dynamics of the BCS and make more college football fans think about the system that currently chooses the national champion and how it compares to a legitimate playoff system.

Undoubtedly, those things will be evident later today when the latest polls come out and then tonight when the latest BCS standings are released.

In the end, LSU may well be the only unbeaten team standing and may be the unquestionable choice to be national champion.

But I'm still pulling for chaos, and if what happened on Friday and Saturday is the beginning of revolutionary chaos, then all I can say is ...

Let the revolution begin.

But, for now, I am pleased.