Showing posts with label Notre Dame. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Notre Dame. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

The Weekend That Things Changed



And just like that ... everything changed.

Well, not everything. But nearly everything.

In the aftermath of Auburn's thrashing of Georgia and Miami's whipping of Notre Dame, the entire Final Four is up for grabs, it seems.

Well, not entirely.

Unless Auburn or Georgia can beat Alabama, I'm pretty sure the Crimson Tide will be in the college football playoff. And defending national champion Clemson will probably be there, too, although the path does not seem so straight or so clear for the Tigers.

But Georgia and Notre Dame probably won't be, which opens a couple of doors for the likes of Oklahoma, Wisconsin and, perhaps, Miami and/or Auburn, although the latter two would need to knock off the two apparent locks for the playoffs in their conference championship games.

In short, nothing seems quite as certain as it did last week.

Idle: #15 Washington State

Thursday
  • Tulsa at #23 South Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is only the second time these teams have met. The first time was three years ago at Tulsa, and South Florida prevailed by eight points.

    South Florida is favored to do it again this time by 23 points. My choice is South Florida.
Saturday
  • Mercer at #1 Alabama, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: You know, there really isn't any point in discussing this one much.

    It exists to fill the week before the Iron Bowl. That's all. If Alabama loses, the Crimson Tide will have no hope of being in college football's playoffs.

    Alabama will win.
  • Virginia at #2 Miami (Fla.), 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Miami has built a two–game lead in this series with wins in the last two seasons.

    It is a lot more competitive than you probably ever thought.

    But the oddsmakers don't think this edition will be too competitive. They have made Miami a 19½–point pick.

    It would certainly be dramatic if Virginia could pull off the upset, but I don't think that will happen. I choose Miami.
  • #3 Oklahoma at Kansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Oklahoma has won 12 in a row against Kansas — last year the Sooners won 56–3 — and OU is picked by 37 points this time.

    It seems to be beyond dispute. Oklahoma should win handily.
  • The Citadel at #4 Clemson, 11:20 a.m. (Central) on ACCNE: You know, by this point in the season, you really hope that this kind of nonconference game is gone, but I guess you could see this one coming from a long way away.

    Clemson is the clear choice.
  • #19 Michigan at #5 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox: This is the only game between two ranked teams this week, and it ought to be a good one.

    Michigan leads the all–time series by a wide margin, but Wisconsin has been competitive in their most recent meetings.

    However, it is worth noting that, until last year, the teams had not met since 2010. When the series was renewed last year, Michigan won by a touchdown.

    This time Wisconsin is the favorite by 7½ points.

    I take Wisconsin.
  • Louisiana–Monroe at #6 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is like the Mercer–Alabama game. It is there to take up schedule space.

    Auburn will win.
  • Kentucky at #7 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Georgia has won more than 80% of its meetings with Kentucky over the years. Currently Georgia has won nine of the last 10.

    The Bulldogs are favored by 21½ in this one. OK. I take Georgia.
  • Illinois at #8 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the 103rd meeting of these schools, and Ohio State leads by better than 2 to 1.

    The Buckeyes hold an eight–game winning streak, and they're favored by a whopping 41 points to make that nine.

    I pick Ohio State.
  • Navy at #9 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: For some reason, it still surprises people when you mention that Navy has a pretty good football team.

    I guess they get the Midshipmen confused with the other service academies, which have struggled in recent years. But Navy is 6–3 (incidentally Army is playing pretty well this year, but Air Force has to win its last two to qualify for a bowl).

    The 8–2 Irish appeared headed for college football's playoffs until they lost to Miami last week. They're apt to be a bit feisty after last week's game.

    Plus there is some decisive history working against Navy. The Midshipmen have won only twice at South Bend in the last 50 years.

    I pick Notre Dame.
  • Kansas State at #10 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Oklahoma State has won three of its last four against Kansas State, but Oklahoma State really needs to win this one to be in the conversation for the Big 12 championship.

    At 5–5 Kansas State needs a win in its last two games to qualify for a bowl, but the Wildcats have Iowa State waiting next week. Fortunately for K–State, that game will be played in Manhattan, Kansas. The Wildcats can afford to lose this one.

    I think they will, too. The choice is Oklahoma State.
  • #11 TCU at Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: Tech leads this series, but most of those wins came during Tech's 3½ decades in the old Southwest Conference.

    TCU jumped out to an early lead in the series, winning the first five encounters, but Tech, as I say, made up for a lot after the Red Raiders joined the SWC. The teams met only twice from the time the SWC folded until TCU joined Tech in the Big 12 a few years ago. Now they meet regularly.

    Tech beat TCU by a field goal last year, but TCU comes into this year's game favored by 6½. If TCU does win, it would be only the third victory at Lubbock for the Frogs in more than 40 years.

    Make Texas Tech an upset special.
  • UCLA at #12 Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This was a rivalry game that I always enjoyed watching when I was a kid. There was always so much color on both sides. And the games were usually competitive, too.

    But Southern Cal usually won, and the Trojans are favored this time by 16 points. I have to take Southern Cal. But it's still worth watching.
  • Nebraska at #13 Penn State, 4 p.m. (Central) on FS1: There was a time when this would have been a marquee game, whenever it was played. It would have made a great bowl game some years, but they have never met in the postseason.

    Nebraska has fallen on hard times, but, believe it or not, the Cornhuskers have won their last four encounters with the Nittany Lions.

    It is hard to see how that streak can continue. Nebraska is 4–6 and needs to win its last two to qualify for a bowl. Penn State is 8–2, already assured of a bowl but looking to beef up its record and improve its postseason destination. The oddsmakers favor Penn State by nearly four touchdowns. I have to take Penn State.
  • #14 Central Florida at Temple, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: The historical record in this series is brief and does not really provide much guidance.

    They have played four games, two on each team's home field. Both teams are 1–1 at home.

    But Central Florida is 9–0 and Temple is 5–5. The oddsmakers have made UCF a 13½–point favorite. Good enough for me. I choose Central Florida.
  • Utah at #16 Washington, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Utah has only beaten Washington once, but that came on Washington's home field, where they will play this weekend.

    The series predates Utah joining the Pac–12, but all the games prior to that were played in Seattle. The one and only time that Utah hosted Washington was after Utah joined the conference.

    Didn't really matter. Washington won that game in Salt Lake City and has won nearly all the games played in Seattle. The oddsmakers think the Huskies will win this one, too, and so do I. Washington is the pick.
  • #17 Mississippi State at Arkansas, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: Arkansas snapped a four–game losing streak against Mississippi State last year, but the oddsmakers think the Bulldogs will get back on the winning track this weekend.

    They're favored by 11½ points.

    Naturally, I would like to see my alma mater win, but I have to be realistic. The Hogs haven't been good this year, and they're likely to lose by a wider margin than 11½ points. I must choose Mississippi State.
  • SMU at #18 Memphis, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNews: This is the 10th game between these teams. The series has gone in threes — Memphis won the first three, SMU won the second three, and Memphis won the most recent three. The logical progression would mean that SMU will win this time, but the oddsmakers don't think so. They made Memphis an 11½–point favorite.

    I think it will be closer than that, but I agree that Memphis will win.
  • California at #20 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Stanford has beaten Cal seven straight times and leads the all–time series by 10 games.

    But as lopsided as the series record is, the games have tended to be surprisingly close. When Stanford won by two touchdowns last season, that was actually a closer margin than the teams have produced in recent years, but more typical of the series is the famous finish of the 1982 Big Game.
    OK, they aren't always so dramatic, but the final margin (in this case, five points) has a lot in common with most games.

    The oddsmakers favor Stanford to extend the streak. I agree. I pick Stanford.
  • #21 LSU at Tennessee, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Tennessee already has enough distractions with the dismissal of head coach Butch Jones last weekend.

    And now LSU comes to town.

    These teams haven't faced each other since 2011, and Tennessee leads the all–time series, but LSU has won the last four encounters and six of the last eight. On top of that, LSU is clearly on an upward trajectory while Tennessee is tumbling into the abyss.

    LSU is a 15½–point favorite. It would be hard to justify picking the Volunteers, and I don't. LSU is my choice.
  • Maryland at #22 Michigan State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This will be the ninth meeting between these teams, and Maryland won last year for only the second time.

    I don't think Maryland can pull it off again. My pick is Michigan State.
  • Texas at #24 West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met six times, all but the first one coming since 2012.

    And the pattern is that one team wins back–to–back encounters, then the other team wins two, then the first team wins two.

    By that pattern, it should be Texas' turn. The Mountaineers have won the last two games.

    But West Virginia is favored by 11 points. I think West Virginia will win at home.
  • #25 North Carolina State at Wake Forest, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: N.C. State has won three in a row against Wake Forest and six of the last nine.

    The Wolfpack have a significant lead in the all–time series, but the Deacons won six in a row at home before the Wolfpack halted the skid with a 35–17 win at Winston–Salem in 2015. It's been more than 20 years since the Wolfpack won back–to–back games at Winston–Salem. Can they do it again?

    The oddsmakers don't think so. They have made Wake Forest a 1–point favorite. I disagree. North Carolina State is an upset special.
Last week: 13–3

Overall: 171–40

Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4

Last week's upset specials: 3–1

Overall upset specials: 11–20

Friday, November 30, 2012

Who Will Play for National Crown?



" 'Ass' is okay providing you're riding into town on a religious feast day."

George Carlin

With so much on the line in Saturday night's game between top–ranked Notre Dame and unranked Southern California, I suppose churches can be forgiven for getting into the act.

It's a big rivalry, anyway, but with a trip to the national championship game hanging in the balance for one — and the desire to deprive the first of that honor motivating the second — I suppose the stakes were just too great.

Well, Notre Dame won the game and, presumably, will be in the title game.

But it remains to be seen who will play against the Irish in January.

Logic says it will be the winner of the SEC Championship game between #2 Alabama and #3 Georgia tomorrow. And I would tend to agree with that — if Alabama wins the game. But if Georgia wins, I think a compelling case could be made for #5 Florida even though Georgia will almost certainly wind up facing Notre Dame if the Bulldogs defeat Alabama (who, it is worth noting, went on to play for and win the national championship last season even though the Crimson Tide did not play for the SEC title).

The Gators are 11–1, same as Georgia and Alabama. They did lose their head–to–head matchup with Georgia a month ago (17–9), but they hammered a South Carolina team that had hammered Georgia two weeks before.

And the Gators did something Alabama couldn't do. They beat Texas A&M on the road. Alabama couldn't beat the Aggies at home.

The stakes are high in the SEC Championship game. The winner, of course, is widely expected to face Notre Dame in the championship game.

But the loser?

Chip Towers of the Atlanta Journal–Constitution contends that the loser of Saturday's game will take a considerable tumble in the bowl picture even though it will only be the second loss for whichever team comes up short.

Idle: #1 Notre Dame, #4 Ohio State, #5 Florida, #6 Oregon, #9 LSU, #10 Texas A&M, #11 South Carolina, #15 Clemson, #16 Oregon, #20 Utah State, #21 Michigan, #22 Northwestern

Friday
  • MAC Championship: #19 Northern Illinois at #18 Kent State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Neither of these 11–1 teams has lost since early September.

    Kent State has a 10–game winning streak on the line, and Northern Illinois has an 11–game winning streak at risk.

    They didn't play each other this season so there is no head–to–head outcome to give us guidance.

    Historically, the series belongs to Northern Illinois, which has never lost to Kent State on its home turf (10–0). Unfortunately for the Huskies, the game is being played at Kent State. Northern Illinois has been very successful there, too — 6–3 — but not quite as successful.

    The teams don't play every year, but Northern Illinois has only lost at Kent once in 30 years. And Northern Illinois has only lost once to Kent State — no matter where the game has been played — in their last 10 meetings.

    That doesn't bode well for the Golden Flashes although the game should be quite a conference showcase.

    Half a dozen backs racked up 1,000 yards or more this season, and three (Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch and Kent State's Dri Archer and Trayion Durham) will be suiting up for the championship.

    Lynch was also the MAC's fifth–best passer — which would be expected, I guess, from the nation's 16th–best offense (Kent was 63rd).

    Northern Illinois also has the better defense (ranked #7 in the nation compared to Kent's #73 ranking).

    I pick Northern Illinois.
  • Pac–12 Championship: #17 UCLA at #8 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have been playing each other every year since the end of World War II.

    And it's tempting, given the fact that these teams played each other last weekend, to predict a repeat of what happened in Los Angeles last Saturday.

    To refresh your memory, Stanford won that game, 35–17. It was Stanford's second consecutive win on UCLA's home turf.

    Now the scene shifts to the north, to Stanford's home turf — where UCLA has won only twice in the last 15 years.

    UCLA might have the offense to get the job done. The Bruins ranked 21st in the nation (Stanford ranked 83rd). And if the game turns into a shootout, one would expect UCLA to have the upper hand. After all, offense — not defense — has long been the conference's strength.

    But if it turns out to be a defensive struggle, Stanford has the advantage. Stanford ranks 19th in the nation; UCLA is 77th.

    The weather may dictate which it is.

    The forecast for tonight is temperatures in the 50s with an 80% chance of rain (after a day in which the probability of rain is 100%). That suggests that defense may dominate on a sloppy field.

    It's awfully hard for one football team to beat another twice in one year, but I will pick Stanford to pull it off.
Saturday
  • SEC Championship: #3 Georgia vs. #2 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Playing in the SEC Championship game is not a new experience for Alabama.

    The Crimson Tide has played in seven since the conference title game made its debut in 1992 — more appearances than any other SEC West team and all against Florida.

    Georgia is no stranger to the SEC Championship game, either. The Bulldogs will be playing in their fifth.

    You would think that these schools would be natural border rivals, but the truth is they haven't faced each other since 2008.

    And even if they faced each other every year, there are at least three other schools that Alabama has long–standing rivalries with — LSU, Auburn and Florida.

    Alabama is one of those schools that is everyone's rival when the Crimson Tide appears on the schedule.

    Georgia's been good this season, but Alabama has the nation's best defense. And the SEC has always been a bastion for great defense. Georgia's offense is ranked 24th, which is pretty good, but how effective can it be against the best defense in the land?

    Alabama's offense is ranked 43rd, which isn't bad, but Georgia's defense is ranked 22nd in the nation — all of which suggests a low–scoring contest.

    And I'm going to predict that, in an upset, Georgia will win.
  • #23 Texas at #7 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There aren't many schools that can claim to have the upper hand in a series with Texas.

    But Kansas State can. The Wildcats are 7–5 against the Longhorns, and they're 6–2 against UT since the formation of the Big 12 in the mid–'90s.

    K–State might still be mentioned — probably would be — in the national championship conversation if not for the 52–24 loss that Baylor hung on the Wildcats last weekend. That, alone, should provide plenty of motivation for the Wildcats.

    When Texas has the ball, the Longhorns' #33 offense should be evenly matched with K–State's #40 defense. When Kansas State has the ball, it seems likely the Wildcats will have the edge. Their offense is ranked only #55, but Texas' woeful defense is ranked #79.

    I think Kansas State will win the game.
  • #12 Oklahoma at TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the first time these teams have faced each other as members of the same conference, but they are hardly strangers.

    They have played 11 times in the past, and Oklahoma leads the series, 7–4.

    TCU has a good team, but I'm not sure the Frogs have what it takes to beat OU, even at home.

    The marquee matchup should occur when OU has the ball. The Sooners' offense is ninth in the nation, but it should be adequately tested by TCU's defense, which is ranked 14th.

    The Sooner' #44 defense should be evenly matched with TCU's offense (#55), which leads me to believe the Sooners will have the upper hand.

    I pick Oklahoma.
  • ACC Championship: #13 Florida State at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is kind of an odd series.

    From 1955 to 1975, Georgia Tech was 6–0–1 against Florida State, but then the Seminoles reeled off 12 straight wins from 1992 to 2003.

    The teams didn't play again until 2008, but Tech won that year and again in 2009. They haven't played since.

    Georgia Tech lost its leading rusher, Orwin Smith, to a sprained ankle against Georgia last Saturday, but he hopes to be back in the lineup for the ACC Championship game.

    That would be good news for Tech fans, whose 28th–ranked offense likely will struggle with Florida State's second–ranked defense even with Smith in the lineup. Tech's 59th–ranked defense, meanwhile, can be expected to have a hard time containing Florida State's 19th–ranked offense.

    I think Florida State will win the game.
  • Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin at #14 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If you're a fan of defense, this might be the game for you.

    Both defenses rank in the Top 15 nationally (Wisconsin is #11, Nebraska is #15). Nebraska's offense (#24) seems much better equipped to handle that challenge than Wisconsin's (#84).

    As a result, I have to pick Nebraska to win.
  • #24 Oklahoma State at Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Oklahoma State has only lost to Baylor once since 1994, and the Cowboys currently have a six–game winning streak against the Bears.

    The teams combined for 83 points in each of their last two meetings, but, if anything, their offenses appear to be capable of doing even better than that this time. Baylor is ranked second in the nation, OSU is ranked fifth.

    But Baylor has the next–to–worst defense in the nation. The Bears were able to overcome that in their game with Kansas State next week, but I don't see how they can manage that two weeks in a row.

    I pick Oklahoma State.
  • #25 Boise State at Nevada, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's really hard for me to see how Boise State can lose this game.

    Historically, Boise dominates the series, leading 11–4. Boise has only lost to Nevada once since 1999.

    Nevada, however, has the #10 offense in the land, which should make for some intriguing clashes when Boise's eighth–ranked defense is on the field.

    Boise State's offense is only #79 in the country — a considerable tumble from recent years — but that should produce another even match since Nevada's defense is ranked 86th.

    There's a natural inclination within me (as there is within many people) to pull for the underdog, and, if I watch this game on Saturday, I'll probably pull for Nevada since the Wolf Pack are almost certain to be the underdogs (given their history against Boise State).

    But logic tells me Boise State will win.
Last week: 13–6

Season: 203–55

Saturday, November 17, 2012

All Shook Up



The college football landscape shifted last weekend when Texas A&M upset the top–ranked team in the nation, Alabama.

And some Aggie hearts beat a little faster at the thought of playing in the SEC Championship game next month — but the fact is that Alabama, which is still the highest–ranked team in the SEC, almost certainly will be playing for the conference title.

Alabama has only one conference game remaining — against 2–8 Auburn in the 71st edition of the Iron Bowl next Saturday. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but the notion that this Auburn team might hand Alabama its second conference loss is just a little far–fetched, it seems to me.

However, just to play devil's advocate, let's say that Auburn pulls off an upset. That could mean a tie in the SEC West with either Texas A&M or LSU or both. That much isn't clear yet. A&M might stumble against Missouri, and LSU might falter against Ole Miss or Arkansas. Neither is likely, but they remain possible until the games are played.

What would be clear is that the SEC's streak of six consecutive national titles will end.

That may be the case, anyway. Top–ranked Oregon may be playing for the national title in January, but the Ducks must beat three straight ranked teams to get there.

Kansas State might be able to punch its ticket for the January showdown in its last two games, but that remains to be seen — as it does for the nation's third–ranked team, Notre Dame.

The next couple of weeks promise to be very interesting.

Idle: #18 Texas, #20 Louisville

Today
  • #14 Stanford at #1 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I know there is a lot of talk on the West Coast these days about Oregon possibly playing for the national championship.

    Such talk was going on even before Alabama lost to Texas A&M last weekend, but now that Oregon is in the top spot, I suppose it has accelerated.

    Certainly, Alabama's loss put additional pressure on the Ducks, who were sure to be feeling more stress this week, anyway, with their upcoming game against #14 Stanford — and, if the Ducks win that one, there will be even more pressure when they face their in–state rivals from Oregon State the following week.

    Then, of course, if the Ducks win those two games, there will be the pressure of the Pac–12 Championship game, which figures to be against the winner of today's game between USC and UCLA.

    Neither Kansas State nor Notre Dame will have to play in a conference championship game, but the Irish will have to play #21 Southern Cal on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

    In fact, K–State may have the easiest road to the national championship game of the top three. After facing Baylor this weekend, the Wildcats have the next week off before closing the season against #18 Texas. (Not that beating Texas will be easy, but at least the Wildcats will get to face the Longhorns on their home turf.)

    But back to the Oregon–Stanford game ...

    The historical record suggests that Stanford would be a lot better off playing this game at home where the Cardinal have beaten the Ducks nearly 63% of the time. When the game has been played in Eugene, the Ducks have been victorious more than half the time.

    Oregon has by far the better offense. Ranked third in the country, it is light years ahead of Stanford's 84th–ranked offense.

    It's not entirely bleak for Stanford, though. The Cardinal defense may pose the stiffest challenge that Oregon will face in Pac–12 play this year (even though the Oregon State game is looming next week).

    But I still think Oregon will prevail at home.
  • #2 Kansas State at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Well, even though KSU is undefeated and Baylor is just barely flirting with the .500 mark, this might not be quite so easy for the Wildcats.

    KSU is 4–0 at home against Baylor, but the Wildcats are just 3–2 at Waco — and Baylor has beaten K–State the last two times they have played there.

    The Bears have the better offense by far. Baylor is #2 in the nation in that category (compared to K–State at #47). But defense, they say, wins championships, and the Wildcats' 34th–ranked defense is much better than Baylor's (#120).

    I figure KSU will have its ups and downs against Baylor's offense — but when the Wildcats have the ball, they almost can't help being productive against the Baylor defense. Only one of Baylor's 10 opponents has failed to score at least 23 points, and most have scored at least 35. Kansas State, on the other hand, has scored 44 points or more six times this season.

    (Some of those points were scored by the defense, but most of them were scored on offense.)

    It seems obvious to me that Kansas State will win this game.
  • Wake Forest at #3 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams met for the first time last season, and Notre Dame, en route to an 8–5 mark, won the game, 24–17.

    That game was played at Wake Forest. This time, the teams meet in South Bend.

    As I mentioned, Notre Dame has the challenge of facing USC next week, but, as long as the Irish don't overlook the 5–5 Demon Deacons, they ought to be undefeated when they face the Trojans.

    After all, Notre Dame's eighth–ranked defense should dispose of Wake Forest's 111th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has been adequate but not great, Wake Forest's defense appears ill–equipped to stop it.

    Notre Dame should win.
  • Western Carolina at #4 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I can't understand why anyone would want to televise this game — but, for some reason, many teams in the Top 25 are facing non–Division 1–A opponents this weekend — and, barring any extremely unforeseen developments, they should have no trouble.

    One would think that Alabama, with the second–best defense in the land, would be unimpressed with Western Carolina. I fully expect Alabama to win.
  • Georgia Southern at #5 Georgia: This game has a lot in common with the Alabama game — one of the best SEC teams is playing at home against a non–Division 1–A team.

    Unless something really unexpected happens, I believe Georgia will win.
  • #6 Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams almost always have winning records when they face each other.

    And Ohio State almost always wins.

    The Buckeyes have been much more successful at home, but they've been successful against Wisconsin wherever the game has been played. At Wisconsin, Ohio State is 25–11–2 — but the Badgers have won two of the last three games that were played there.

    And logic suggests that, if Wisconsin can make it three of four, the Badgers (who would then be 8–3) will return to the Top 25.

    I think it should be a good game. Ohio State has the better offense, but Wisconsin's defense currently ranks in the Top 20 nationally — and should be up to the task of stopping the Buckeyes.

    I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Wisconsin in a mild upset.
  • Jacksonville State at #7 Florida: Like the Alabama and Georgia games, I see no reason why the home team should lose to this non–Division 1–A team.

    Florida should win easily.
  • Ole Miss at #8 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Known as the "Magnolia Bowl," this rivalry dates back to the 19th century.

    Its heyday came in the 1950s and 1960s, when both teams brought lofty rankings and winning records into their annual clashes (they even met in the Sugar Bowl once).

    In a sort of general view of sports history, not much has changed for LSU, which is ranked eighth in the land, but Ole Miss (5–5) has struggled.

    Ole Miss has the better offense, but LSU's defense (#3 in the nation) seems well prepared for it.

    That — and home field, where LSU is 37–23–1 against Ole Miss — seems likely to propel LSU to victory.
  • Sam Houston State at #9 Texas A&M: This must seem like a real breather to the Aggies, who have won eight of their last nine games (the exception being a five–point loss to LSU last month).

    And, after winning on the road against the top–ranked team in the nation last week, Texas A&M simply can't be impressed with Sam Houston State.

    A BCS bowl berth is possible for the Aggies if they keep their eyes on the prize, and I see no reason why they shouldn't do that today. Texas A&M should win this game.
  • #10 Florida State at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much reason, frankly, for Maryland fans to watch this game — either in person or on TV.

    Historically, Florida State has won 20 of the 22 meetings between the schools and has never lost at home — so I guess there is one good thing about this game for Maryland fans. It's being played in College Park, not Tallahassee.

    It could be depressing for Terps fans when they have the ball. Maryland's offense is the worst in the land while Florida State's defense is the best. Things might be much better for Maryland when Florida State has the ball. The Seminoles are #11 in the country in offense, but the Terps, who are 16th in defense, might be able to stop them.

    One wonders, though, if the Terps might stop themselves. Statistically, Maryland's offense is –10 in turnovers, and the thought of cashing in on that and beefing up the defensive statistics must be motivating for FSU's defense.

    On the flip side, I wonder if Florida State can maintain its focus, knowing that its annual rivalry game with #7 Florida is only a week away.

    Can Maryland win? I doubt it. I pick Florida State.
  • North Carolina State at #11 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When North Carolina State beat Clemson last year, it snapped a seven–game Clemson winning streak against the Wolfpack.

    But the 6–4 Wolfpack still have plenty to play for — like a more prestigious bowl appearance — and Clemson could well be distracted by next week's game with South Carolina.

    But if Clemson's offense (seventh in the nation) remains focused, it should be able to dominate N.C. State's defense (61st in the country) and give the Tigers the winning edge. I figure Clemson's defense (#57 in the land) is evenly matched with N.C. State's offense (#59).

    I pick Clemson.
  • Wofford at #12 South Carolina: I really thought South Carolina would struggle after losing its marquee running back to an injury a few weeks ago.

    But the Gamecocks have persevered, and they should be 9–2 after beating this non–Division 1–A foe — if they don't start daydreaming about their game next week against #11 Clemson.

    I don't think they will. I think South Carolina will win.
  • #13 Oklahoma at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It should be rather cold in West Virginia tonight.

    I used to live in Oklahoma so I know the OU players are accustomed to the cold weather, but this isn't like what they have been dealing with lately. It's going to be in the mid–50s (at best) during the day, and temperatures are expected to decline rapidly after the sun goes down.

    It's a modest series to date — only four games have been played — and the teams have never played in Morgantown so this will be a first — and a chilly one at that.

    The offenses are pretty even — OU is #16, West Virginia is #18 — so that means defenses probably will be decisive — and that is where OU (#20) has a huge edge over West Virginia (#110).

    I predict that Oklahoma will win.
  • California at #15 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: I'm sure it must be tempting for the Beavers to overlook the Bears with the showdown with #1 Oregon coming up next week, but a loss to the Bears would knock Oregon State out of the running for the Pac–12 championship game.

    Well, they're probably out of the running for that, anyway, what with Stanford and Oregon playing each other today. Oregon is undefeated and Stanford only has one loss in Pac–12 play whereas Oregon State has two conference losses. Logic says the winner of the Oregon–Stanford game will represent the division in the conference championship game.

    But, as this day begins, a three–way tie at the top of the division is still mathematically possible and, if that happens, I don't know what the Pac–12's tiebreaker would be.

    If there is to be such a tie, two things must happen this week: Stanford must beat Oregon this afternoon and Oregon State must beat California tonight.

    I have already predicted that Stanford will not hold up its end of the bargain, but Oregon State has a significantly better defense than California. Both offenses are rather average so defense figures to dominate in this game.

    Consequently, I will pick Oregon State.
  • Minnesota at #16 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I have found that many people mistakenly believe that, because Nebraska is a newcomer to the Big Ten, its series with most of the members of the conference are rather sparse.

    That may well be the case with some of the schools, but Nebraska has a long history with Minnesota. They've played 52 times — but last year, Nebraska's first in the Big Ten, was the first time the teams had faced each other in more than two decades.

    Nebraska's win in 2011 was its 15th straight against Minnesota. The Gophers haven't beaten the Cornhuskers since 1960, and it is hard to imagine 6–4 Minnesota topping an 8–2 Nebraska team that has lost only to #17 UCLA and #6 Ohio State.

    Especially since Nebraska enjoys such a huge advantage on offense (the Cornhuskers are #17 in the country while Minnesota is #96). Minnesota actually has the edge on defense, but it is narrow (Minnesota is #25; Nebraska is #28).

    On the strength of a superior offense and the home field advantage, I choose Nebraska.
  • #21 USC at #17 UCLA, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was a kid, the USC–UCLA game was one of the top rivalry games that was televised every year — usually during the Thanksgiving season.

    USC usually won the game as it has throughout history (the Trojans have won about 61% of the time, and they've won 12 of the last 13) — but the thing that should concern this USC football team about this UCLA team is that UCLA has the #13 offense in the nation — and the third best in the Pac–12, a conference that is known for flashy offenses.

    Southern Cal has a pretty good offense, too (#28), and logic says it shouldn't have much trouble with UCLA's #75 defense. But neither should UCLA's offense have too much difficulty with USC's #58 defense.

    It seems to me to be a matter of which offense executes its game plan the most effectively. I'm guessing it will be UCLA.
  • Utah State at #19 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Here's something I'll bet you didn't know — Louisiana Tech has the top–ranked offense in the nation.

    OK, maybe you did know it, but even if Utah State knows it, it can't be very encouraging — especially since Louisiana Tech has won six of the last seven meetings between the schools.

    Tech (9–1) should not take the 8–2 Aggies lightly, though. That Bulldog offense will be taking on the 12th–best defense in the nation. And Tech's offense better come through because Tech has one of the worst defenses in the nation while Utah State's offense is 28th.

    I pick Utah State.
  • #22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: This series dates back to 1980, but it has really only been a regular thing since the teams became conference rivals.

    It's one of those series that goes in waves. Back in the 1980s, Rutgers was the regular winner, then they played a couple of times in what was, in hindsight, a transitional period in the 1990s (split decision), and Cincinnati has been the dominant program in the early 21st century (although Rutgers did snap a five–game Bearcat winning streak in the series last year).

    If it is true that defense wins championships — or, at least, wins games — Rutgers, with its 14th–ranked defense, should have no trouble with Cincinnati (98th in the nation in offense).

    Cincinnati's defense (#44) might be able to compete with Rutgers' offense (#33), but if the Rutgers defense forces Cincinnati to commit turnovers (and Rutgers has been particularly good at making the other team fumble the ball away this season), it really might not matter what happens when Rutgers has the ball.

    I pick Rutgers.
  • #23 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This really should be an entertaining game.

    Both offenses are in the Top 10. OSU's is slightly better, but it will have the challenge of facing Tech's 18th–ranked defense.

    Tech's three losses have been to ranked teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas). OSU has lost to Texas and K–State, too; OU is coming up next week. The Bedlam Series is always a big attention grabber in Oklahoma, and OSU has been good enough — and successful enough — in recent years (the Cowboys snapped an eight–game losing streak to the Sooners last year) to make folks in Oklahoma wonder if OSU can win two in a row against OU for only the seventh time in the last century.

    The Cowboys can't afford to be distracted by such thoughts this week — but my guess is they will. Texas Tech in what may well be regarded as an upset.
  • Iowa at #23 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series is more than a century old, and Michigan has been in the driver's seat practically from the beginning.

    Well, Iowa did win the first encounter back in 1900 — but then won only one of the next 16. A pattern was set.

    Iowa fans are not accustomed to experiencing losing seasons, but the prospect is suddenly very real, now that the 4–6 Hawkeyes are on a four–game losing streak and must defeat both Michigan today and #16 Nebraska next week to finish 6–6.

    Michigan's offense hasn't been too horrifying, but the Wolverines' defense, which is 11th in the nation, has been.

    And it is because of the defense that I pick Michigan to win.
  • #25 Kent State at Bowling Green, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have faced each other every year since 1962, and Bowling Green has thoroughly dominated the series, 40–9.

    Only recently has Kent made a series of it, winning the last two and three of the last six.

    And Kent (9–1) might make it three in a row with its superior offense.

    But Bowling Green (7–3) has the sixth–best defense in the country. The Falcons have only given up 20 points or more three times — but they have lost on all three occasions.

    I tend to favor good defenses, especially when the weather turns cold — as it is sure to be in Ohio this weekend.

    Consequently, I pick Bowling Green.
Last week: 17–4

Season: 174–44

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Sooners, Irish to Face Off



Fifty–six years ago this Saturday, Oklahoma recorded its one and only football victory over Notre Dame.

So far.

That game was played in South Bend, Ind. The teams have met four times in Norman, Okla., where this Saturday's game will be played, and the Irish have won them all.

There are few — if any — other schools that can claim to have winning records against the Sooners. But Notre Dame can.

And the Irish would be undefeated against Oklahoma — if not for that game that was played 56 years ago.

(The Associated Press reports that "[n]o team has had as much success against the Sooners having played at least that many games.")

Oklahoma was in the midst of its record–setting 47–game winning streak, which ran from 1953 to 1957. The Irish were the last to beat the Sooners on Sept. 26, 1953, before the streak began, and they were the ones who ended the streak on Nov. 16, 1957 (coincidentally, the 50th anniversary of Oklahoma's admission to the Union).

In between, the Sooners hammered Notre Dame, 40–0, on Oct. 27, 1956.

That 1957 loss still irritates long–time Sooner faithful.

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly has been approaching the Oklahoma game as one of many, reports The Oklahoman.

"That's it?" asks Stephanie Kuzydym. "That's what history of breaking OU's record 47–game win streak and an 8–1 series advantage means to Notre Dame?"

Idle: #6 LSU, #25 West Virginia

Today
  • #14 Clemson at Wake Forest, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have faced each other on the football field every year but two since 1933.

    Clemson has dominated the series, 59–17–1, and the Tigers have been especially successful at home, where they are 35–7. The Tigers also have a winning record at Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons have been tougher there. Every victory Wake Forest has against Clemson in the last 13 years has come at Wake Forest.

    I just don't think Wake Forest can win this one. I'll take Clemson.
Friday
  • Cincinnati at #16 Louisville, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is a tighter series than you might think.

    And, if Cincinnati had not lost last week, it most likely would be a matchup of Top 25 teams.

    With its win last year, Cincinnati matched its longest winning streak against Louisville — four straight games. A win tomorrow night would be Cincinnati's fifth in a row.

    But I just don't think it will happen. I think Louisville will win.
Saturday
  • #13 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Mississippi State has a lot of anger at Alabama that has been accumulating over the years.

    These teams have been playing each other since 1902, and the Crimson Tide has won more than 80% of the time.

    Mississippi State has some talent this year. In fact, there really isn't a lot that separates the two teams on offense. Alabama is ranked 39th in the nation; MSU is 50th.

    The glaring difference is on defense, where Alabama continues to be rated the best in the country. Make no mistake about it; MSU is pretty good on defense, too (#25 in the nation), but the challenge facing the Crimson Tide is not as great as the one facing the Bulldogs.

    Especially since the Tide is at home. I think Alabama will win this one.
  • Colorado at #2 Oregon, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: You probably wouldn't think it, given these two teams' recent histories, but the all–time series between these schools is dead even, 8–8.

    Oddsmakers don't have any faith in Colorado, and why should they? Colorado is 1–6; Oregon is 7–0. Oregon's offense may not be as potent as it has been in recent seasons, but the Ducks are #8 in the nation in that category. Colorado isn't in the Top 100.

    And Oregon has the edge on defense. The Ducks haven't been as impressive on that side of the ball, but they're ranked 46th, which should be good enough. That looks really good next to Colorado's #112 ranking.

    What's more, Oregon is the home team — and the Ducks haven't lost at home to Colorado since 1967.

    Oddsmakers made Oregon a 45½–1point favorite. That's good enough for me. I'll go with Oregon.
  • #3 Florida vs. #12 Georgia at Jacksonville, Fla., 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Only a few rivalry games are still played at neutral sites. Georgia–Florida is one of them.

    OK, Jacksonville isn't really a neutral site. It's only about an hour's drive from the Florida campus whereas it is about a four–hour drive from the Georgia campus.

    This will be their 78th game at a neutral site (most of them have been played in Jacksonville), and Georgia has the lead at neutral sites, 40–36–1.

    The teams provide an interesting contrast.

    Georgia, on the one hand, has been winning with its offense (#18 in the land) while Florida, ranked #100, clearly has struggled.

    The Gators, however, have been winning in true SEC style — on defense. Florida is tied for seventh in that category with Texas Tech. In this category, it is Georgia that has struggled — although not nearly as much as Florida has struggled on offense. The Bulldogs are #47 in defense.

    But this is the game known as the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." It should be a very entertaining way to spend a Saturday afternoon especially if you are a fan of Georgia — my upset special.
  • #15 Texas Tech at #4 Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These schools first met in 1933, and Tech enjoys a 2–to–1 advantage in the all–time series.

    Statistically, Tech has an edge today, with offensive and defensive units that are both in the national Top 15.

    And Tech has won three–quarters of its game in Manhattan, Kansas. All that seems to spell a big win for Tech.

    So I'll make that my second upset special this week — Texas Tech to beat Kansas State.
  • #5 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Okies are justifiably proud of that 47–game winning streak I mentioned earlier.

    It was quite an accomplishment then, and it should be regarded as more of one today, more than half a century after it was achieved.

    But attention should be on this game, not the ones that were played in 1956 or 1957.

    OU has the edge on offense. The Sooners are ranked 17th in the nation whereas Notre Dame is 74th. Astonishingly (at least in comparison to previous national champions and national championship contenders from Oklahoma), the Sooners have accomplished this largely on the strength of their passing game (although the running game ain't too shabby, either).

    Notre Dame's defense might be prepared for OU's offense; the Irish are sixth in the nation. But Oklahoma's defense is in the national Top 20, too, and should be ready for what Notre Dame has on offense.

    I'll take Oklahoma in a narrow decision.
  • #7 Oregon State at Washington, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: If you conducted a poll of sportswriters who cover the Pac–12, they might conclude that Oregon State's ascendance is the surprise of the year.

    And there is a good case to be made for that. The Beavers were 3–9 last year, 5–7 the year before that.

    But somehow I doubt that the Huskies would be surprised that Oregon State is undefeated so far. Washington leads the all&ndsh;time series, but Oregon State has won seven of its last eight confrontations with Washington.

    The good news for Washington is that the Huskies' only win over the Beavers since 2003 came in Seattle two years ago. Will lightning strike twice?

    Well, if it turns out to be an offensive game, you'd have to favor Oregon State, although neither team has been especially strong on offense. But the Beavers, ranked 48th, have a decided advantage over the Huskies (#103).

    If it's a defensive game, I still have to give the edge to Oregon State — but it will be considerably smaller. OSU is 37th on defense; Washington is 55th.

    Oregon State can't afford to get sloppy. The Beavers have crucial games with Stanford and Oregon coming up in the next few weeks. The 3–4 Huskies would just like to get back to .500.

    I pick Oregon State.
  • #9 Ohio State at Penn State, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Ohio State's offense — powered by Braxton Miller and the nation's 10th–best running attack — is 40th in the nation. Penn State's offense is ranked 59th.

    But Penn State has a deceptively dangerous defense, which is ranked 22nd in the nation.

    The Nittany Lions have accomplished that largely while the national spotlight was shining brightly elsewhere.

    When Penn State started the season at 9–2, I think most fans dismissed this as a rebuilding year for a program that was hit pretty hard by NCAA sanctions. Well, don't look now, but the Nittany Lions have won five straight.

    Asking them to keep that streak alive against the Buckeyes may be too much to ask, though. Ohio State narrowly leads the all–time series — a lead the Buckeyes claimed by going 7–3 in their last 10 games with the Nittany Lions.

    It should be entertaining, for awhile, but I really don't think the Nittany Lions have the depth to shut down the Buckeyes for an entire afternoon. I pick Ohio State to win.
  • #10 Southern Cal at Arizona, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I really haven't followed the Pac–12 too closely over the years.

    But my assumption would be that Southern Cal has pretty much dominated every team in the conference. The Trojans always seemed to be in the Rose Bowl (which has been the postseason reward for the conference champion practically since time began) when I was growing up.

    I don't know if Southern Cal has dominated every team in the conference, but the Trojans have certainly dominated Arizona. Southern Cal has won more than three–quarters of their games (26–7), and the Trojans have won all but one of their contests with the Wildcats since 2001.

    But it might surprise you to realize that Arizona's offense currently ranks higher than Southern Cal's. Arizona is #4 in the land; Southern Cal is #47. When you remember that the Pac–12 has always been more offensively oriented than defensively oriented, that's an important factor to keep in mind.

    If, on the other hand, defense dominates the game, that would favor Southern Cal. The Trojans' defense is 30th in the nation; Arizona's defense, currently ranked 104th, has struggled.

    I think 6–1 Southern Cal, whose defense has been playing especially well in recent games, will handle Arizona.
  • Duke at #11 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: For the first time in nearly two decades, Duke is bowl eligible.

    But the Blue Devils figure to have their hands full with the Seminoles.

    Florida State is ranked #2 in defense (behind only Alabama). Duke, meanwhile, ranks #68.

    The Duke defense will have a tough assignment trying to control Florida State's 10th–ranked offense. Duke's offense is ranked 52nd, which isn't bad but seems ill–equipped to overcome Florida State's defense.

    I pick Florida State.
  • Tennessee at #17 South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Tennessee is an improved team. I think just about any observer of college football would agree with that.

    But the Volunteers also have to be a little worn out after three straight losses to ranked teams (Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama). That makes their record this year against ranked teams 0–4 (including the Vols' loss to Florida in September).

    And now they must travel to South Carolina to take on the 17th–ranked Gamecocks. Life is not easy when you are a member of the Southeastern Conference.

    If Tennessee loses this game, the Volunteers will be 3–5, with all five losses coming against Top 25 teams, but then they will embark on a four–game stretch that could not only make them bowl eligible but could land them in a reasonably decent bowl to boot.

    The Vols' postseason prospects would be considerably brighter if they could win this road game. But is it possible?

    Well, the history of the series favors Tennessee, which is 22–6–2 against South Carolina all time. But the Gamecocks have won three of the last four meetings.

    Tennessee's offense has been more productive than South Carolina's. But South Carolina has been much more successful on defense than Tennessee.

    Sounds like a split to me. In such a case, I tend to side with the better defense, which belongs to South Carolina, so that's my pick.
  • Kent State at #18 Rutgers, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big East Network: These teams have only played each other twice, and Rutgers won both contests.

    Rutgers has the 14th–best defense in the country, which should be adequate for stopping Kent's 68th–ranked offense. Kent's defense, meanwhile, is 71st in the land, and its face–offs with Rutgers' #97 offense might prove to be fairly even.

    I favor Rutgers.
  • Washington State at #19 Stanford, 5:15 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This will be the 63rd time these teams have met since 1936, and Stanford has a comfortable lead in the series.

    Stanford has also won six of the last eight meetings.

    Thus far, neither team has been terribly impressive on offense so, logically, the best defense will probably prevail. That would be Stanford, which is 34th in the nation in defense (Washington State isn't even in the Top 100).

    Accordingly, I will pick Stanford.
  • #20 Michigan at Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the eighth time these teams have played since 1905.

    Series history isn't of much help in this case. Michigan does lead the series, which could be instructive given the fact that the Wolverines are ranked and the Cornhuskers are not.

    But Michigan's last visit to Nebraska (in 1911) ended in a 6–6 tie.

    Thus far, Nebraska has been much better on offense and Michigan has been better on defense. Which will prevail?

    Well, I'm inclined to think that Michigan, boasting a better defense and home field advantage, will win this game.
  • #21 Boise State at Wyoming, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Wyoming has never beaten Boise State.

    The teams have played six times, three times on each campus, and Boise State has won each game by an average of 20 points.

    Wyoming is actually ranked ahead of Boise State — slightly — on offense, but neither team has been very impressive on offense.

    That in itself is kind of remarkable for Boise State, which has been noted in the past for its offense.

    But, this year, Boise is known for its defense, which ranks 20th in the nation. The 1–6 Cowboys are ranked 99th.

    It seems clear to me that Boise State will win.
  • #22 Texas A&M at Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have only played twice — and neither game was played at Auburn.

    The first meeting was in 1911 in Dallas, which is not where A&M is located, but it was regarded as an Aggie home game on that occasion. I suppose the Aggies were considered the home team the second time the teams met, nearly 75 years later in the Jan. 1, 1986 Cotton Bowl.

    The Aggies won both games — and I'm inclined to think they will win this one, too. A&M has the ninth–best offense in the land (Auburn is 119th and has scored more than 20 points only once in seven games). Neither team is ranked very highly on defense, but A&M is ahead of Auburn. Not by much, but how far ahead do they have to be against the next–to–least productive offense in the country?

    I pick Texas A&M with confidence.
  • #23 Ohio at Miami (Ohio), 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have been playing each other annually for 50 years, and it's been a pretty competitive series.

    Miami (Ohio) holds the edge overall, but Ohio has won the last six. Ohio has been better — considerably better — on both sides of the ball.

    I don't think anything more needs to be said. I'll go with Ohio.
  • #24 Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State: I'm tempted to say there is no hope for New Mexico State in this game.

    Louisiana Tech is 6&ndsh;2 all time against New Mexico State and has won the last five in a row. With the nation's second–ranked offense (led by QB Colby Cameron and running back Kenneth Dixon), Tech clearly outclasses NMSU, which is ranked 94th.

    At 1–6, New Mexico State is on track for its 10th straight losing season; meanwhile, 6–1 Tech is trying to land a prestigious bowl bid.

    However ...

    There is some hopeful news to report for NMSU fans.

    For one thing, New Mexico State is 2–2 when the game is played in Las Cruces, as this year's is.

    And, although NMSU's defense is ranked 100th in the nation, that's better than Louisiana Tech, which is 119th. I suppose you have to chalk that one up to the fact that they have played Texas A&M this season — and the twice–beaten Aggies are in the Top 10 nationally in offense.

    Oh, well, who am I kidding? Louisiana Tech will win this game.
Last week: 16–5

Season: 129–30

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Irish Take On Wolverines Saturday



If you are a college football fan, there are many games on this weekend's schedule that should attract your attention.

But, of all the appealing contests, I think the one that intrigues me the most is Michigan and Notre Dame. It's got it all — tradition, devoted fans and, this year, both teams are ranked in the Top 25. When was the last time that happened?

It will also be intriguing to observe the atmosphere in South Bend. Notre Dame has been openly trying to make its home field advantage more of an advantage.

Idle: #9 Stanford, #12 Texas

Today
  • Brigham Young at #24 Boise State, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams played each other in 2003 and 2004. Boise State won both contests — by an average of about 20 points.

    I pick Boise State.
Saturday
  • Florida Atlantic at #1 Alabama: These two schools have never met, but the odds against a Florida Atlantic victory must be somewhere in the millions or billions.

    For awhile after Bear Bryant retired, Alabama ceased to be a factor in the national championship conversation, but those days are long gone. Alabama should win this one.
  • #2 LSU at Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series dates back to 1902, and Saturday's game will be the 45th meeting.

    Both teams have the advantage at home. This year's game is being played at Auburn, where the home team is 14–10. In fact, Auburn has won five of the last six games it has played against LSU at home.

    One of those wins came two years ago when Cam Newton was Auburn's quarterback. He has moved on to the NFL, and Auburn has been struggling ever since.

    LSU, meanwhile, has consistently been ranked in the nation's Top 5, and, once again, college football fans have begun to anticipate LSU's annual showdown with Alabama.

    Such talk will continue after this weekend. I expect LSU to win the game — even though this week's campus bomb scare disrupted practice in Baton Rouge.
  • #22 Arizona at #3 Oregon, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Arizona always struggles against Oregon — especially when the teams play at Oregon.

    Oregon is 12–5 at home against Arizona; in fact, Oregon has won eight of its last nine home games against Arizona.

    But this year might be different. Both teams are in the Top 10 nationally in total offense (Arizona is fourth, Oregon is seventh), and neither team has been particularly impressive on defense.

    Do I think Arizona can win? Not really, but I think the Wildcats can make it interesting. Bottom line: Oregon will win the game.
  • #10 Clemson at #4 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have been playing off and on since 1970, annually (as conference rivals) since 1992, and Florida State has dominated the series.

    Actually, Florida State won 14 of the first 16 times the teams met, but Clemson has won six of the last nine. Unfortunately, only one of those wins came at Florida State — a 27–20 decision in 2006.

    There's a lot for college football fans to like in this game. Both teams are in the Top 25 in total offense, but Florida State has a decisive edge in total defense; the Seminoles havethe top–ranked defense in the nation while the Tigers' defense is ranked 56th.

    Advantage: Florida State.
  • Vanderbilt at #5 Georgia, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is one of the oldest series in the South.

    These teams first played in 1902. They have played 68 times in all, and Vandy has won only 15. In fact, Georgia has only lost to Vanderbilt twice in their last 20 encounters — but the good news for Vandy fans is that the Commodores' two wins in the last two decades came at Georgia, where they will be playing Saturday night.

    Hey, you gotta take encouragement where you find it, but Vandy has more than that.

    The Commodore defense is ranked 11th. That should make for some interesting moments when Georgia's 20th–ranked offense is on the field.

    I pick Georgia, but it just might be a lot closer than most people think.
  • #15 Kansas State at #6 Oklahoma, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams will be meeting for the 92nd time when they kick off this Saturday.

    K–State has pulled off some surprising wins over the Sooners, but the Wildcats have lost eight of the last nine meetings, and they have really struggled in Norman, where OU holds a 35–6–3 advantage.

    The Sooners also have the #10 defense and #11 offense, both considerably better rankings than KSU has. That, with the home field, should be enough for Oklahoma to win.
  • Missouri at #7 South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: These teams have played twice before, but never during the regular season.

    Missouri beat South Carolina in the 1979 Hall of Fame Classic and the 2005 Independence Bowl.

    On Saturday, they will meet for the first time as conference opponents, and TV cameras will be on hand.

    If you're familiar with the SEC, it should come as no surprise to you that four of the Top 20 defenses are in the SEC, and one of them will be playing in this game. But you may be surprised to know that SEC newcomer Missouri, not South Carolina, is ranked in the Top 20 in total defense.

    Neither school is currently ranked in the Top 20 in total offense. South Carolina is in the Top 50, and Missouri is in the Top 80.

    Missouri will have the edge if it is a defensive game — and I'm kind of inclined to think it will be. South Carolina struggled against Vanderbilt, then beat East Carolina and Alabama–Birmingham. With a schedule like that, shouldn't the Gamecocks be higher than 48th in total offense?

    I pick Missouri.
  • Maryland at #8 West Virginia, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: This will be the 49th encounter in this series, and the record is pretty tight.

    West Virginia holds a slight advantage, 25–21–2. The Mountaineers also have won the last three times the teams have played in West Virginia.

    The most interesting moments figure to be when West Virginia's third–ranked offense takes on Maryland's eighth–ranked defense. Maryland has one of the worst offenses in the nation, and West Virginia has one of the worst defenses.

    I'll take West Virginia.
  • #18 Michigan at #11 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These schools have been playing each other — sporadically — since 1898, and the home team usually has the edge.

    At South Bend, Ind., Notre Dame is 8–6–1 against Michigan and enjoys a three–game winning streak there over the Wolverines.

    Wherever the game is played, the final score is frequently close, often within a single score.

    And this year's game figures to be a battle between Michigan's offense and Notre Dame's defense. In a low–scoring decision, I pick Notre Dame.
  • California at #13 USC, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Southern Cal really tumbled in the polls after the Trojans' loss to Stanford last week.

    A game with California might be just the thing to lift their spirits. These teams have played each other 97 times, and Southern Cal has won 63 — including 10 of the last 11.

    California has been more impressive on offense, and Southern Cal has been more impressive on defense. I've always been a believer in the value of a strong defense so I'll give USC the edge in this one.
  • Kentucky at #14 Florida, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Florida has ruled this series, especially at home, where the Gators are 27–7 against the Wildcats.

    What's more, Florida hasn't lost to Kentucky since 1986, and the Gators haven't lost at home to Kentucky since 1979.

    Recent history doesn't suggest that Kentucky is ready for the prime time of Gainesville. Florida has been held under 38 points only twice in the last 18 meetings, and Kentucky has managed to exceed 30 points only four times.

    I fully expect Florida to win.
  • Alabama–Birmingham at #16 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I'm really astonished that this game is being televised.

    I am confident that Ohio State will win — and probably by a wide margin.
  • Virginia at #17 TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This has been a rather modest series. There have been only two meetings — in Shreveport, La., for the 1994 Independence Bowl and at Virginia in 2009.

    Virginia won the Independence Bowl. TCU won the rematch in 2009. This will be the first time the teams have played in Fort Worth.

    Statistically, TCU enjoys huge advantages on offense and defense. That may not mean much at this point in the season, but it confirms my gut feelilng, which is that TCU should win the game.
  • Oregon State at #19 UCLA, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Since these teams first met in 1930, UCLA has dominated the series.

    The Bruins have won 41 of 60 contests, and, lest you think most of those wins were compiled in the early years of the series, UCLA has won seven of the last nine meetings.

    UCLA should have the advantage in this game.
  • Florida International at #20 Louisville: I can't justify spending much time on this one.

    Louisville should win handily.
  • Eastern Michigan at #21 Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The Spartans are 5–0 against Eastern Michigan, and the score is usually lopsided.

    Michigan State has never scored fewer than 42 points, and Eastern Michigan has never scored more than 20. And neither extreme was achieved on the same occasion.

    I don't need any more convincing. I pick Michigan State.
  • South Alabama at #23 Mississippi State: I know it is still fairly early in the season, but Mississippi State has got to be feeling like Rodney Dangerfield. The Bulldogs don't get no respect.

    They finally crack the Top 25, and no one is televising Saturday's game, not even on ESPN3.com, which is kind of like the Mikey of sports broadcasting in reverse.

    They'll televise anything.

    Sure, it's against South Alabama, and that really does qualify as a Who cares? kind of foe, but we live in a different age than the one in which I grew up. In those days, teams were limited in the number of televised appearances they could make during the regular season.

    But there are so many TV options out there today that just about every team in the rankings (and a bunch of teams that are not ranked) can be on TV on a given Saturday.

    You can debate whether Mississippi State deserves to be ranked. The Bulldogs are 3–0 for the first time since 1999, and that record includes a fairly decisive win over Auburn. Of course, it also includes wins over Jackson State and Troy.

    But I think they will make some noise this weekend. After that, they have a bye week, and then we'll see if anyone wants to televise their game with Kentucky on Oct. 6 or Tennessee the week after that.

    I pick Mississippi State.
  • Idaho State at #25 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Based purely on reputation, Nebraska should have no problems in this game.

    In fact, if Idaho State wins at Nebraska, it would almost certainly qualify as one of the major upsets of this year, if not all time.

    I'll go with Nebraska.
Last week: 18–3

Season: 58–9

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Notre Dame, Purdue Renew Rivalry Today


Purdue and Notre Dame renew their rivalry today.

College football is loaded with traditions and rivalries.

And there may be no other program in America that is as rich in its football history as Notre Dame.

When one thinks of Notre Dame's rivals, one's thoughts may turn to Southern California, Michigan, Navy and Michigan State. And, to be sure, those are great rivalries.

But, today, Notre Dame will face its instate rival, Purdue, and I would put the Notre Dame–Purdue rivalry up against any of those others.

It was a fixture in the first six seasons that the legendary Knute Rockne coached the Fighting Irish, but they stopped playing each other after the 1923 season and didn't revive the series until a couple of years after Rockne's death in 1931.

I don't know if it was regarded as a rivalry in those days — if it was, it was a sporadic one that went between meetings for years at a time.

The series didn't become an annual thing until 1946, but the schools have faced each other in every year since, often producing memorable performances.

Of course, rivalries are always more interesting if at least one of the teams is ranked — and, this year, the Irish are ranked.

Whether they will be ranked when the season is over is another matter.

But it can be said — without reservation — that Notre Dame is ranked this weekend.

Idle: #9 West Virginia

Today
  • Western Kentucky at #1 Alabama, 2:39 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: These teams have only met once, in 2008, and 'Bama won, 41–7.

    But I don't think anyone who watched 'Bama dismantle Michigan last week could possibly doubt that the Tide can handle Western Kentucky, probably by a wide margin.

    I pick Alabama.
  • #2 USC at Syracuse, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the second straight year these teams have played.

    That's quite an improvement in frequency, considering that the teams had met only twice prior to that — in 1924 and 1990.

    The Trojans have won all three previous meetings, and, while I expect them to lose at least once this season, this won't be a weekend when they lose. I have to go with USC.
  • Washington at #3 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the third time these schools have met on the football field.

    LSU won both of the previous encounters by an average margin of 17 points. The Tigers are tough to beat in Baton Rouge, and I feel confident in predicting that LSU will win this game.
  • Fresno State at #4 Oregon, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: These two teams have actually played each other eight times before.

    It's been an interesting series. Fresno won the first two games, but Oregon has won every contest played since 1996.

    As good as the Ducks have been for the last few years, I fully expect Oregon to win this game.
  • Florida A&M at #5 Oklahoma: These teams will be meeting for the first time.

    But this is OU's home opener. I don't know if the Sooners are the fifth best team in the land, but I'm confident that Oklahoma will be able to handle Florida A&M.
  • Savannah State at #6 Florida State, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams will be meeting each other for the first time.

    They have no history to help observers anticipate the outcome.

    But is that necessary? It seems to me that Florida State should cruise to victory in this one.
  • #7 Georgia at Missouri, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Missouri's first SEC opponent is a team they have only played once before — in the January 1960 Orange Bowl.

    Georgia won that game, 14–0.

    Obviously, a game played more than 50 years ago has little in the way of insight to offer. But, in general, Georgia is probably the favorite to win. The Bulldogs, after all, were undefeated on the road last year, and they have won more than three–fourths of their road games since 2000.

    However, Missouri was 5–1 at home last year, and the Tigers have won 80% of their home games since 2000.

    Besides, Georgia will be without four defensive starters. So this looks — to me, at least — like the irresistible force meeting the not–quite–as–immovable object. I think it will be a close game.

    In what will probably be regarded as an upset, I will take Missouri to win by, perhaps, a field goal.
  • Louisiana–Monroe at #8 Arkansas, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is one of those series the Razorbacks started after they joined the SEC 20 years ago.

    It wasn't part of the Arkansas experience I had in Fayetteville. The schools first met more than a decade after I finished school there.

    But this will be the 10th time they have played, and Arkansas won the first nine by an average margin of about three touchdowns.

    I watched Arkansas' season opener on the internet last week, and I had some issues with the defense (which, supposedly, would be better this season). The Razorbacks might very well struggle against top–ranked Alabama, their opponent next week, but I see no reason why Arkansas should not beat Louisiana–Monroe.
  • East Carolina at #9 South Carolina, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: These teams first met in 1977, and South Carolina won the first eight encounters.

    But East Carolina has held the upper hand in five of the eight games played since 1991.

    And it is tempting to pick ECU to win this one, but I think South Carolina is just too good — and should win by three touchdowns.
  • #11 Michigan State at Central Michigan, 2:30 p.m. on ESPNU: Believe it or not, the first two times these schools faced each other, Central Michigan was the winner.

    This will be the ninth time these schools have squared off, and Michigan State has been 5–1 since losing those first two meetings.

    But this year will be different, if only because Central Michigan will be the host — for the first time.

    Is that going to change the outcome? I doubt it. I pick Michigan State.
  • Ball State at #12 Clemson, 11:30 a.m. on ACC Network: There is an interesting pattern in this rarely played series.

    The first meeting came in the 1992 season. Clemson won that game. The teams did not meet again for 10 years. Clemson won the 2002 rematch.

    Both games, like the one that will be played today, were played at Clemson. And I expect the outcome to be about the same — Clemson by about 20 points.
  • #13 Wisconsin at Oregon State, 3 p.m. (Central) on FX: When these teams met last season, it was their first meeting in 50 years.

    But the outcome did not change, only the margin. Wisconsin barely won the 1961 encounter, but the Badgers rolled over the Beavers last year.

    I expect Wisconsin to win by perhaps a touchdown.
  • Central Florida at #14 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools have never faced each other before, and I am inclined to believe that the Buckeyes will win the game.

    I know that is based on the schools' reputations (or lack thereof), but I also know that UCF has had a fair amount of success in recent years. So I expect a close game — say, Ohio State by five.
  • Austin Peay at #15 Virginia Tech, 12:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: This one is a first, just like the Florida State game.

    And I am inclined to believe that Virginia Tech will be an easy winner. Nothing more needs to be said.
  • #16 Nebraska at UCLA, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This may be the most entertaining game on the schedule, and it is already an interesting series.

    These schools have faced each other 10 times — but it has been nearly 20 years since their last encounter.

    Both schools have hosted the other five times, and home field advantage clearly plays a role in the outcome. Nebraska is 4–1 in its home games against UCLA, and UCLA is 3–2 in its home games against Nebraska.

    Consequently, the smart pick when these teams are facing other is the home team, whichever team that may be.

    UCLA is the home team this time — and the Bruins might very well win the game — but I'm going to go with Nebraska.
  • New Mexico at #17 Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on Longhorn Network: These teams have played each other twice before, but this will be their first meeting since 1988.

    The outcomes of those previous meetings were remarkably consistent. Both were 47–0 victories for Texas. Those other two games were played in Austin, as tonight's game will be.

    Texas has struggled in recent years — but not as much as New Mexico, which has finished 1–11 in each of the last three seasons — and the Longhorns have lost as many as they have won in Austin in the last couple of years, but I expect Texas to prevail, probably by a wide margin.
  • #18 Oklahoma State at Arizona, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: Historically, OSU holds a 5–3 advantage over Arizona.

    But that really doesn't mean much to the current groups because, before the teams resumed their series in the 2010 Alamo Bowl, they had not met since World War II.

    Arizona had a rough season last year. The Wildcats enjoyed modestly better years in the preceding seasons, and they will be hosting the Cowboys for the first time since 1942 — which also happens to be the last time Arizona beat Oklahoma State.

    Oklahoma State is not the same team that went 12–1 last year, but the Cowboys do still have some of the talent that made that season possible. I expect Oklahoma State to win.
  • Air Force at #19 Michigan, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have played only once before — in 1964 when Michigan prevailed, 24–7.

    The Wolverines didn't cover themselves with glory last week against Alabama, but I expect Michigan to notch its first win of the season this week.
  • Grambling at #20 TCU, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSSW: TCU was idle last week — so no one really knows if the Horned Frogs are worthy of being ranked.

    This season is going to be one in which TCU will have to prove itself — repeatedly — against some old foes — Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor — and some fairly new ones — Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State.

    I don't believe, though, that the Frogs will face much of a challenge in their season opener. I pick TCU to win this one.
  • Miami (Fla.) at #21 Kansas State, 11 a.m. on FX: These teams met for the first time last season, and it was a pretty close game. KSU won but only by four points, 28–24.

    The rematch is being played in Kansas, as was last year's game, and I expect the same outcome — but not the same margin. I think Kansas State will win by a wider margin this time.
  • Purdue at #22 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. on NBC: This has to be the oldest series on today's Top 25 schedule.

    These schools met for the first time in 1896, and this will be the 81st contest between them. Notre Dame has dominated the series, winning 53 times, including the last four in a row and six of the last seven.

    I expect Notre Dame to make it five in a row, but I think it will be close.
  • Missouri State at #23 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. on ESPN3.com: I don't know much about Louisville — except that the Cardinals have had some pretty good seasons in recent years.

    And all I really know about Missouri State is that the school was known as Southwest Missouri State when I was in college at Arkansas.

    But I have heard nothing that would lead me to conclude that Missouri State is capable of going into Louisville this afternoon and winning this game.

    Just the opposite, in fact. I think Louisville will win by a wide margin.
  • #24 Florida at Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Aggies officially begin their existence as members of the SEC today.

    Their opponent is Florida, a team the Aggies have played twice before — but not since the 1977 Sun Bowl.

    Most people probably will pick the Gators in this game, but the Aggies have won roughly three–fourths of their home games in the last three years. I'm going to pick Texas A&M in an upset special.
  • Duke at #25 Stanford, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: This isn't a very extensive series — the teams have met only three times — but the visiting team has won every time.

    Actually, I think that pattern will change this year. I expect Stanford to win, perhaps by three touchdowns or more.

    Other than jet lag, I expect Duke to bring little to tonight's game.
Last week: 22–0

Season: 22–0

Saturday, November 19, 2011

The Letdown of the Century



Over the years, many games in many sports have been called — in anticipation, rarely in retrospect — "the game of the century."

The latest, of course, was the LSU–Alabama game earlier this month.

But, even if there is such a game every year for the next 100 years, there will never be another game that will end like the one that was played 45 years ago.

On this day in 1966, such a game was played in East Lansing, Mich., between the undefeated Michigan State Spartans and the also undefeated Notre Dame Fightin' Irish. Notre Dame was ranked #1 in both polls. Defending UPI national champion Michigan State was ranked #2 in both polls.

It was ironic, really, that the teams played each other at all that season. The top two teams in the polls had not faced each other in 20 years, since the 1946 Army–Notre Dame game (which featured three past or future Heisman Trophy winners and, perhaps even more ironically, ended in a 0–0 tie), which made it a rarity to begin with.

But that is only the beginning of the story.

On the original 1966 schedule, which had been released several years earlier, Michigan State had only nine games slated, even though a team was allowed to play as many as 10 regular–season games. Notre Dame, meanwhile, did have10 games scheduled, but one of its opponents, Iowa, dropped the Irish.

Since Michigan State had an open spot, the Spartans agreed to play the Irish, setting the stage for their showdown — even though no one knew at the time that it would be a #1–#2 clash.

In those pre–cable days, NCAA rules and regulations permitted college football teams to play in only one nationally televised and two regionally televised games during the regular season. The postseason was an entirely different matter, but, again, the times were different. There were far fewer bowl games — and no conference championship games.

Notre Dame had already played its nationally televised game, and ABC's executives didn't want to show the game outside the schools' region, but interest was so high elsewhere that they gave in and agreed to show it on a delayed basis to non–regional viewers.

Whether they saw it live or on tape, those viewers witnessed what had to be the letdown of the century.

Looking at the final score from the perspective of 45 years later — 10–10 — I suppose one's initial conclusion would be that it was an edge–of–your–seat, nail–biting finish, an old–fashioned defensive struggle.

To an extent, I suppose that is true. But not entirely.

Michigan State scored all its points in the first half, and Notre Dame managed to cut the deficit to 10–7 by intermission. The Irish then tied the game with a field goal at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Michigan State had a chance to take the lead on a deep pass, but the receiver outran the pass and had to double back. Notre Dame intercepted the pass, but then missed a field goal that would have given the Irish the lead for the first time.

So far, so good. Then the game of the century became the letdown of the century.

With a little more than a minute remaining in the game, Notre Dame had the ball at its 30 and needed to reach Michigan State's 30 to be in field goal range. Most viewers probably figured the Irish would take a stab at it. In those days, there was no overtime in college football.

But Notre Dame coach Ara Parseghian chose not to make the attempt and ran out the clock. It was a controversial decision, to say the least.

"We'd fought hard to come back and tie it up," Parseghian said. "After all that, I didn't want to risk giving it to them cheap. They get reckless, and it could cost them the game. I wasn't going to do a jackass thing like that at this point."

The Irish crushed Southern California the following week but did not accept bowl bids at the time, thus ending the 1966 season at 9–0–1 and clinging to the top ranking. That didn't go over well at all with Alabama fans, whose team had a perfect record. Even after 45 years, it's still a sore point for older Crimson Tide supporters.

Michigan State also finished 9–0–1 and did not play in a bowl but because of conference rules, not school policy.

At that time, the Big Ten did not allow a school to represent it in the Rose Bowl in consecutive years, and Big Ten teams were not allowed to play in any bowl game other than the Rose Bowl so the Spartans stayed home for the holidays.

And the question of who was really the best college football team in 1966 remained unanswered for many college football fans.