Oooops

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Tomorrow, the Michigan Wolverines will make their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament's Final Four in 20 years.

They had a chance to return to the Final Four the following year, but they lost to my alma mater, the University of Arkansas. They haven't been back since.

A lot of attention has been paid this week to Wichita State, which is back in the Final Four for the first time in nearly half a century. Having the spotlight shine on someone else might be something of a relief for Michigan, given what happened the last time the Wolverines played in the Final Four.

On this night two decades ago, Michigan faced North Carolina in the championship game in New Orleans. It was a close game, competitive, definitely entertaining for the fans, but it is almost certainly remembered for a single moment in the final seconds.

Michigan's Chris Webber had the ball and tried to call a timeout. Unfortunately for him, Michigan was out of timeouts. That meant a technical foul was assessed against Michigan. Game over.

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Until that point, Webber had been having a pretty decent game. He led all Michigan players in scoring with 23 points, and he was second only to North Carolina's Donald Williams (by two points) among all players.

And, in the end, he was named to the All–Tournament Team along with Williams and two other North Carolina players.

But then it was learned that he had received under–the–table payments from a booster, and Michigan had to vacate its entire 1992–93 season.

And the Wolverines haven't been seen in the Final Four since that night — well, until now.

It was the last gasp of Michigan's Fab Five, the nickname given to the 1991 recruiting class that took the program to consecutive national championship games in 1992 and 1993.

The memory that lingers from the '92 tournament has nothing to do with Michigan. That tournament is remembered for the epic East Regional final between Duke and Kentucky, won in overtime by Duke. Duke went on to beat Michigan in the championship game.

The '93 tournament is remembered mostly for Webber's faux pas. The two are so closely linked that my guess is Webber's mistake will be mentioned in the first paragraph of his obituary.

Ooooops.

Going Out on a Limb

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I know what the conventional wisdom says.

And I know North Carolina crushed Michigan State when they met a few months ago.

The Tar Heels have long been considered the favorites to be this season's champions.

But we're down to the championship game. It's been 30 years since Magic Johnson took the Spartans to what was, for many, an improbable title game victory over Larry Bird and Indiana State. And the 2009 championship game is being played in Detroit, less than 100 miles from the Michigan State campus.

Logic — or, perhaps, more significantly, statistics — suggests that North Carolina has the edge.

Each team has individual standouts. They just stand out in different things.

• North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough is 13th in the country in free throw percentage, and


• Ty Lawson is tied for 17th in three–pointer percentage.

On the other side, Michigan State's Raymar Morgan is 14th in field goal percentage.

But they both have top 20 national performers in at least one category. In assists, North Carolina's Lawson is tied for 10th in the nation. Michigan State's Kalin Lucas is tied for 16th.

And North Carolina seems to have a decisive edge in team statistics.

• North Carolina led the nation in field goals per game (Michigan State is 95th).


• The Tar Heels are second in points per game (Michigan State is 100th).


• North Carolina is second in rebounds (Michigan State is 34th).


• North Carolina is second in assists (Michigan State is 18th).


• The Tar Heels are fourth in free throws per game (Michigan State is 57th).


• North Carolina is 16th in blocks (Michigan State is not in the top 100).


• North Carolina is 29th in steals (Michigan State isn't in the top 100).

Common sense tells me that North Carolina will win the game.

But I feel this is one of those moments when the underdog is going to deliver.

Like the U.S. hockey team against the Russians at the Lake Placid Olympics in 1980.

Detroit — and the state of Michigan — have been knocked down a few times. Unemployment is well into double digits there now. The car industry is wobbling on the edge of a cliff.

The Spartans can give Michigan and Detroit the kind of psychological lift the 1980 U.S. hockey team gave a battered America.

I think this may be one of those moments that transcend the playing field. It will do you no good to analyze the numbers and apply logic to your prediction. This one will be played from the heart.

I predict Michigan State 79, North Carolina 77.

Look for a Pair of No. 1s in the Final

This is the part of the NCAA Tournament where it gets interesting for me.

We're down to the Final Four and, for the most part, the seedings have held up pretty well. We've got two No. 1s, a No. 2 and a No. 3 in the Final Four. There have been a few upsets but nothing earth–shattering.

It seems to me that the numbers favor the two No. 1s.

The first game, at 5:07 p.m. (Central) tomorrow, matches No. 2 seed Michigan State and No. 1 seed Connecticut.

UConn's Hasheem Thabeet is second in the nation in blocked shots, averaging 4.3 a game. UConn leads the nation in blocks and rebounding and is ninth in free throws made, 16th in points per game, 23rd in field goals and 25th in field goal percentage. Michigan State is 20th in assists (but UConn is 21st).

The second game, which starts about 30 minutes after the first game wraps up, will match No. 3 seed Villanova against No. 1 seed North Carolina.

The Tar Heels lead the nation in field goals per game, and they are second in points per game, rebounding and assists, fourth in free throws made, 11th in field goal percentage, 16th in blocks and 24th in steals

Villanova is eighth in free throws made, but the Wildcats won't get enough free throw opportunities to outlast North Carolina. Besides, the Tar Heels are 10th in free throw percentage while Villanova is 19th.

Three–pointers haven't been a big part of the equation for the Final Four teams so I wouldn't expect a lot from outside.

And, unless something really shocking happens in the semifinals, I expect North Carolina to play Connecticut for the title. From that match, I predict that North Carolina, the preseason favorite, will capture the title on Monday night.