Sunday, December 21, 2014

The End of Miami's Reign



In the early '70s, the team of the decade seemed to be the Miami Dolphins. Mostly, that was due to the Dolphins' perfect season in 1972. It seemed to set them up for a long stretch of success, one that might extend through the entire decade.

As great as the '72 team was, though, I always thought the '73 team was better because it had to defend the '72 team's legacy. The '73 team came into the season with a gigantic target painted squarely on each player's chest. For every team that played the Dolphins in '73, that was the game of the year.

The '73 team stood up to that challenge, going 12–2 and returning to the Super Bowl and winning. Thus, over that two–year span, Miami won 32 of 34 games.

So, when the 1974 season began, Miami was a two–time defending Super Bowl champion with a .941 winning percentage over the previous two seasons. The Dolphins started the season with a loss to New England, then won 11 of the next 13 games. It looked like the Dolphins might get the chance to win their third straight Super Bowl.

Standing in their way, though, were the Oakland Raiders, the same bunch who snapped their legendary winning streak in the second week of the season after the history–making 17–0 campaign. In the AFC semifinals on this date in 1974, the 11–3 Dolphins took the field against the 12–2 Raiders in Oakland.

It was widely assumed that, with the winner slated to face either the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship game the following week, the winner of this game would represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. At halftime, it appeared it would be Miami. The Dolphins led, 10–7.

But the Raiders outscored the Dolphins, 21–16, in the second half and won on Clarence Davis' eight–yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

The Raiders advanced to the AFC title game against the Steelers. Everyone thought the Raiders would win. The Steelers had never been to a Super Bowl before. Of course, the Raiders had only been to one at that time, but they had come close frequently. Their time had come. That was what the conventional wisdom said.

But times changed. The Raiders lost to the Steelers, and Terry Bradshaw went on to lead Pittsburgh to the first of four Super Bowl titles in six years.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

It's That Time of Year; The Bowl Season Is Upon Us



College football's postseason is under way, and with it comes the first Division I college football playoff. I predict the outcomes of the New Year's Day semifinals, and I'll follow with a prediction of the championship game when the participants are known.

Every Top 25 team is in action, starting with #23 Utah against Colorado State in today's Las Vegas Bowl. My alma mater, the University of Arkansas, will be in action this bowl season even though the Razorbacks are not ranked. Neither are their opponents, the Texas Longhorns. I'm looking forward to it, though.

This year's bowl season has some intriguing matchups. It should be fun.

Saturday, Dec. 20
  • Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas, Nevada: Colorado State vs. #23 Utah, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Until recently, these schools were conference rivals so there is an extensive history to observe.

    In fact, this will be the 80th meeting between the schools. Colorado State has held the upper hand with seven wins in the last eight games.

    Colorado State has the 12th–ranked offense; Utah's offense is #84. Neither defense is in the Top 70, which leads me to believe this game will be dominated by offense, and Colorado State's is clearly better.

    I pick Colorado State.
Saturday, Dec. 27
  • Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas: Duke vs. #15 Arizona State, 1 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This will be the first chapter in this series.

    The Sun Devils' offense is the marquee unit in this game, and I think it will produce a victory for Arizona State.
  • Holiday Bowl, San Diego: #24 Southern Cal vs. #25 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have met only four times.

    Southern Cal has never lost to Nebraska. The closest call was in 1970, when the teams fought to a 21–21 draw. It was Nebraska's only blemish in that national championship season.

    So here they are again — playing on a neutral site for the first time (although it is hard to imagine San Diego being a neutral site when Southern Cal's players and fans can drive there in about two hours).

    Statistically, Nebraska has a bigger advantage on defense than Southern Cal has on offense, but I'm wondering about the Cornhuskers' states of mind. I mean, after all, their head coach was fired after the conclusion of the regular season and a new coach has been hired for next season — but an interim coach will direct the team in the Holiday Bowl.

    What kind of effect will the distractions have on Nebraska? That is the great unknown. Sounds to me like they were glad to resume their routine after all the developments.

    I have found Southern Cal to be inconsistent this season, and I think Nebraska will win — barely.
Monday, Dec. 29
  • Russell Athletic Bowl, Orlando, Florida: Oklahoma vs. #18 Clemson, 4:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Clemson has the best defense in the nation — statistically.

    Oklahoma has the 19th–best offense — statistically. It should be interesting when OU has the ball — much more interesting than it will be when Clemson is on offense. The Tigers are 59th in offense, and the Sooners are 53rd in defense.

    They've only met three times, most recently in the January 1989 Citrus Bowl, which was won by Clemson.

    I think Clemson will win this time, too.
Tuesday, Dec. 30
  • Music City Bowl, Nashville, Tennessee: Notre Dame vs. #22 LSU, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have played each other 10 times, and each has won five.

    LSU won the last time they met — in the January 2007 Sugar Bowl. In fact, LSU won the other time they met in the postseason — in the December 1997 Independence Bowl. Historically, the Tigers would be in trouble if they were playing the Irish in Baton Rouge or South Bend. But the fact that they're playing in a neutral site seems to work in LSU's favor.

    Statistically, LSU has a huge advantage on defense; Notre Dame has a more modest advantage on offense. The big number seems to be LSU's ranking on defense — #8. I think that will prove to be too much for the Irish.

    I pick LSU.
  • Belk Bowl, Charlotte, North Carolina: #20 Louisville vs. #13 Georgia, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the first chapter in what could become a pretty intense series.

    I don't think it can become a full–fledged rivalry — besides, Georgia already has plenty of those — but, for a nonconference series, I think it could be very entertaining.

    In past seasons, you would be correct in assuming that Louisville had the better offense and Georgia had the better defense — but, this season, the roles are reversed. Louisville has the nation's sixth–best defense. Georgia's defense isn't bad (#20); it just hasn't been as good.

    On offense, Georgia is ranked #28, and Louisville has been terrible (#68). I'm inclined to think that Louisville's woeful offense will be its undoing, and I pick Georgia to win.
Wednesday, Dec. 31
  • Peach Bowl, Atlanta: #6 TCU vs. #9 Ole Miss, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: You have to go back to 1949 to find the only time TCU beat Ole Miss. The Rebels have a four–game winning streak against the Frogs, but that really doesn't mean much. They haven't faced each other since Oct. 15, 1983.

    Like the Baylor Bears, I'm sure TCU was disappointed not to be included in college football's Final Four. But, per the Fort Worth Star–Telegram, the Frogs are happy to be playing in a bowl game. Considering how low preseason expectations were, I should think they would be.

    TCU finished the season with the nation's sixth–best offense. It is sure to be challenged by Ole Miss' 13th–ranked defense. TCU also has the statistical edge when Ole Miss has the ball, but it isn't as pronounced. That might make things more interesting when the Rebels are on offense.

    When all is said and done, though, I think TCU will win.
  • Orange Bowl, Miami: #10 Georgia Tech vs. #8 Mississippi State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met four times, and Georgia Tech has won them all.

    But Mississippi State has never been as good when the Bulldogs have faced the Yellow Jackets as they have been this year.

    Folks who tune in to this game will see two really good offenses and two mediocre defenses. I expect a high–scoring game and, since the Bulldogs have the higher–ranked offense, I expect Mississippi State to win the game.
  • Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Arizona: #21 Boise State vs. #12 Arizona, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The offenses will get all the attention in this one — and rightfully so.

    Boise always has good offenses. This year's edition is #13 in the nation. Only two teams in Arizona's conference, the Pac–12 (where offense wins championships), are ranked higher — and Arizona ain't one of 'em, although Arizona is ranked 26th in the nation, which isn't too shabby.

    Defense is an afterthought in the Pac–12. While Boise is ranked 39th nationally in defense, only one Pac–12 team (Stanford) finished better. It is safe to say that defense is a challenge for the Wildcats; Arizona isn't even in the Top 100 nationally.

    Defense will be Arizona's undoing. Perhaps one day the Pac–12 will realize that defense still wins games — and championships. I pick Boise State.
Thursday, Jan. 1, 2015
  • Outback Bowl, Tampa, Florida: #17 Wisconsin vs. #19 Auburn, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: In three previous meetings, each team won once and there was a tie (in 1931).

    Probably the most enticing matchup will come when Auburn has the ball. The Tigers' offense is ranked 17th, but it must face Wisconsin's fourth–ranked defense. Wisconsin's 23rd–ranked offense figures to have an easier time against Auburn's #59 defense.

    I'm taking Wisconsin.
  • Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida: Minnesota vs. #16 Missouri, noon (Central) on ABC: Missouri hasn't beaten Minnesota since 1945 — and, yes, the teams have faced each other since then. Five times, in fact. The last time was in 1970, though, so these are not familiar foes.

    Neither team was impressive on offense this season. I think this will be a low–scoring game, probably decided by whichever team makes the big play on defense. For that, I think Missouri (#23 on defense) is better equipped than Minnesota (#37).

    So I'll take Minnesota.
  • Cotton Bowl, Arlington, Texas: #4 Baylor vs. #7 Michigan State, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: It really is hard to understand why the nation's #1 offense (Baylor) will not be playing in the national championship playoff.

    Nevertheless, if the Bears can shake off the disappointment, I am certain they will play up to their capability in the Cotton Bowl, where they should expect a fairly strong local following.

    They will also encounter a pretty good Michigan State team, one that is in the Top 20 in both offense and defense.

    This is only the second meeting between these schools. They played each other in September 1968, and Michigan State won the game. But, of course, there is little, if anything, that can be gleaned from the outcome of a game that was played nearly half a century ago.

    However, one past result — last year's Fiesta Bowl — appears to be motivating the Bears.

    I pick Baylor.
  • Rose Bowl (National Semifinal), Pasadena, California: #3 Oregon vs. #2 Florida State, 4 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be an interesting game, featuring the current and previous Heisman winners.

    There is no history between these programs, either.

    Both offenses are way better than the defenses. Oregon's offense, as you would expect, is #3. Florida State's is #40.

    The Seminoles have the advantage on defense, but that doesn't really mean much. Florida State is #53 in the country. Oregon is #81.

    I expect a lot of scoring, but I think Oregon will do more of it than Florida State and advance to the national championship game.
  • Sugar Bowl (National Semifinal), New Orleans: #1 Alabama vs. #5 Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically, Alabama is 3–0 against Ohio State, but they haven't met since 1998.

    They always meet on neutral sites, though. This will be the third time in a bowl (second Sugar Bowl), and they met once in the Kickoff Classic.

    Statistically, this could be good enough to be the national championship. Both teams are in the Top 20 in both offense and defense. Alabama has the advantage on defense; Ohio State has the advantage on offense although I have to wonder how well the Buckeyes will perform without the injured J.T. Barrett. Granted, they played well in the Big Ten title game, but Alabama is the big time, winner of three national championships in the last five years.

    I don't know if this will be high scoring or low scoring. I just think it will be close, and I think Alabama will win.
Friday, Jan. 2
  • Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, Texas: #11 Kansas State vs. #14 UCLA, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams have met twice, both in recent times, and the home team won the game each time.

    But this game is being played in a neutral site.

    Statistically, UCLA had the better offense (#22), and Kansas State had the better defense (#35 nationally). There is a wider gap, though, between Kansas State's offense (#47) and UCLA's defense (#68).

    I'll take Kansas State.

Championship week: 6–2

Season: 206–50

















Friday, December 5, 2014

College Football's Playoff Field Comes Into Focus This Weekend

There aren't many games involving Top 25 teams this week. We're down to mostly the conference championship games — with a few regular–season finales for those who play in conferences that do not have championship games.

But just about every game on the schedule could conceivably influence the Final Four that will meet in January.

There are several schools that are deserving of at least being given a chance. If it was up to me, I would double the number of participants to eight. Winning this weekend won't necessarily propel those teams into the playoff, but it could easily deprive the losing team of a slot.
Idle: #7 Michigan State, #10 Mississippi State, #13 Ole Miss, #15 Georgia, #16 UCLA, #17 Arizona State, #19 Clemson, #20 Auburn, #21 Louisville, #23 LSU, #24 Utah, #25 Nebraska

Friday
  • Pac–12 Championship: #8 Arizona vs. #3 Oregon at Santa Clara, Calif., 8 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Try to imagine how the Oregon Ducks must feel.

    Oregon has won 16 of the last 21 games with Arizona. But Arizona handed Oregon its only loss of the season — so far — on Oct. 2, 31–24. No other team held Oregon under 38 points this season — and, were it not for the Wildcats, Oregon might well be ranked #1 right now and might have been ranked #1 for several weeks now.

    Is the time for retribution at hand?

    Oregon has the fourth–best offense in the land. Neither defense has been impressive this season, and it is hard to imagine Arizona's holding QB Marcus Mariota and the Ducks in check again. It is so difficult to beat a team twice in one season. I don't think it will happen this time. I pick Oregon to win.
Saturday
  • SEC Championship: #14 Missouri vs. #1 Alabama at Atlanta, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: The first time these two teams met was on a neutral field. Of course, that was the 1968 Gator Bowl. Missouri won on that occasion, 35–10.

    Missouri faced Bear Bryant a second time &mdashl and a third, actually — before he retired. In 1975, Missouri beat Alabama in the season opener; the Crimson Tide didn't lose again for more than a year.

    Bryant beat Missouri a few years laterThis could be a defensive struggle. Both defenses are ranked in the Top 20.

    Alabama's offense is in the Top 20, too, which should make for some very entertaining viewing when the Crimson Tide has the ball. But Missouri's offense is barely in the Top 100. I will be very surprised if Missouri puts very many points on the board.

    I can't see Missouri generating enough offense to win. I pick Alabama.
  • #12 Georgia Tech vs. #2 Florida State at Charlotte, N.C., 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This is a rematch of the ACC title game from two years ago. They haven't met since Florida State's 21–15 triumph.

    The Seminoles have won 13 of their last 15 games with Georgia Tech.

    Don't look now, though, but Tech might prove to be more than a handful for Florida State. Tech has a higher rated offense, and its defense hasn't compiled stats that are impressive, but the overall performances have been comparable.

    It wouldn't surprise me if Georgia Tech wins this game, but I'll still pick Florida State.
  • Iowa State at #4 TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Iowa State has only beaten TCU once — but that was in 2012, the last time the Cyclones traveled to Fort Worth.

    Iowa State has seldom had a winning season in football. Basketball is more the Cyclones' style.

    TCU is kind of a newcomer to the world of big–time football. The Frogs are probably in the national championship playoff unless the Frogs find a way to blow it against an Iowa State team to which they are clearly superior. The margin isn't as crucial to TCU as it is to Baylor.

    I will take TCU.
  • #9 Kansas State at #5 Baylor, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: If Baylor is to make a run at the college football playoff, the Bears need to beat the Wildcats — decisively.

    That may be hard for Baylor to accomplish. Both teams have pretty good defenses — K–State's is ranked #23 while Baylor's is ranked #39.

    Baylor has the top–ranked offense in the land, which should make things interesting when the Bears have the ball. It ought to be a pretty even match when the Wildcats have the ball. Their offense is ranked #47.

    K–State's coaching staff would probably feel a lot better about this game if it was being played in Manhattan, where KSU holds a 4–1 all–time advantage in the series. In Waco, the teams are tied, 3–3. In fact, Baylor has a three–game winning streak at home against the Wildcats. Kansas State hasn't won in Waco since October 2002.

    I get the feeling that Baylor will win this game. Will the Bears win convincingly enough to get into the playoff? Time will tell.
  • Big Ten Championship: #11 Wisconsin vs. #6 Ohio State at Indianapolis, 7:17 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This might be the most entertaining game of the weekend — because, without QB J.T. Barrett, Ohio State's offense will be winging it.

    Barrett is the third–most efficient QB in the country. He plays in one of the nation's power conferences, which means his numbers are not suspect. It would be absurd to think that Barrett could be taken from the equation and Ohio State's offense wouldn't miss a beat.

    Both teams are in the Top 20 in offense, but Wisconsin has the second–best defense in the land. Barrett might have struggled, anyway. Ohio State has a pretty good defense, too. It is ranked 19th.

    But, if Ohio State has trouble moving the ball with a largely untried backup QB calling signals, points may be hard for Ohio State to come by. I'm guessing Wisconsin will win.
  • Oklahoma State at #18 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: This game between in–state rivals is known as Bedlam. Has been for years. I don't know the story behind it. I only lived in Oklahoma for four years as an adult. I didn't grow up there — and that, I have come to believe, is necessary if one is to be acquainted with all the legends and lore surrounding football programs, especially the OU football program, in Oklahoma.

    I only heard it referred to as "the Bedlam series." I'm sure there must be a good story behind that. I just never heard it.

    Historically, OU wins nearly 80% of the time. In fact, that is current OU coach Bob Stoops' winning percentage against the Cowboys. He has won 12 out of 15 with Oklahoma State, and he is 6–1 when their game is played in Norman.

    Oklahoma has played better on both sides of the ball. The gap is not as huge on defense as it is on offense, but neither unit seems likely to produce an unlikely road victory for OSU. I pick Oklahoma.
  • Mountain West Championship: Fresno State at #22 Boise State, 9 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Boise State is 11–2 against Fresno State since the dawn of the 21st century, and Boise hasn't lost at home to Fresno in more than 30 years.

    That includes their most recent meeting in Boise — on Oct. 17 when Boise State prevailed, 37–27.

    Boise State probably expected to be playing San Diego State, which was marginally better than Fresno State but lost in their head–to–head clash two months ago.

    It would be more appropriate, really, for Boise State to face Colorado State for the conference championship. Both are 10–2; Fresno State is 6–6. But Boise State and Colorado State play in the same division, and Boise State won their head–to–head meeting in early September.

    Boise State has a better offense and defense than Fresno State. It really shouldn't be as close as it was in October. I pick Boise State.

Last week: 14–5

Season: 200–48

Friday, November 28, 2014

The Incredible Comeback



Like many other Americans, one of my most cherished Thanksgiving traditions is watching football.

And what happened 40 years ago is as vivid in my memory as anything that happened five minutes ago — because it was the fulfillment of every young boy's fantasy, and I was a young boy.

The Dallas Cowboys have been playing home football games on Thanksgiving since the '60s. On this day in 1974, they had been doing it for less than a decade. In 1974, they had a really special matchup planned — with the Washington Redskins, a rival and the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl two years earlier.

There have been some great games played on Thanksgiving, but none had such an improbable story line.

The Cowboys were losing to the Redskins, 16–3, when quarterback Roger Staubach was knocked out of the game in the third quarter, and Clint Longley, a rookie, was summoned off the bench to fill in.

That particular Thanksgiving, my parents had invited some friends of theirs to come to our house in the country. They came, along with their son who was a few years older than I was. After we all ate dinner, the men gathered in front of the TV to watch the Cowboys and Redskins. I wasn't a Cowboys fan, but I was a Staubach fan as was our visitors' son.

However, when Staubach was knocked from the game and an unknown rookie was called in to run the offense, we lost interest and excused ourselves. I think we went outside to shoot some baskets, but we were soon drawn back inside by the sound of our fathers whooping. Clint Longley was leading a comeback.

He threw a 35–yard TD pass to tight end Billy Joe Dupree to cut the deficit to six points, then Walt Garrison's one–yard TD run gave the Cowboys a one–point lead going into the fourth quarter.

Ex–Cowboy Duane Thomas scored his second touchdown of the game, giving the Redskins the lead again, then Longley connected with Drew Pearson for a 50–yard TD pass to win the game.

It was probably the best Thanksgiving a rookie quarterback ever had.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

The College Season Shifts to the Postseason



Thanksgiving is rivalry weekend in college football.

It once was even better than it is today — when Oklahoma played Nebraska and Texas played Texas A&M, but those rivalries appear to be history now.

Still, it ain't bad these days, with Alabama–Auburn, Mississippi State–Ole Miss and Clemson–South Carolina as well as traditional rivalries that are fun to watch, regardless of the records — Florida–Florida State, Michigan–Ohio State, Georgia–Georgia Tech.

The conference championship games and a few final regular–season clashes are on the agenda next week, then it's bowl season.

Idle: #20 Oklahoma

Thursday
  • #6 TCU at Texas, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Not so long ago, Texas played Texas A&M on Thanksgiving, but that tradition ended when the Aggies bolted for the SEC a few years ago.

    TCU–Texas doesn't seem like the long–term answer. Few teams have been dominated by another the way TCU has been dominated by Texas. Between 1968 and 1991, the Longhorns played the Frogs every year and never lost to TCU. Actually, most of the Frogs' wins in the series came in the 1930s and 1940s.

    But it's a new day for Frog fans. TCU has a legitimate shot at being in the first–ever NCAA Division I football tournament, and it needs to beat Texas on Thanksgiving night to remain in the running.

    I'm thinking TCU will do what it hasn't done since the '60s — win in back–to–back trips to Austin.
Friday
  • Stanford at #9 UCLA, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Stanford has won the last six games between the schools.

    And Stanford has the sixth–best defense in the nation. Now, I guess it goes without saying that Stanford has the highest–ranked defense in the Pac–12. If there was another Pac–12 school with a Top 10 defense — let alone Top Five even though that is what would be necessary to overtake Stanford — that would indicate a seismic shift in that conference's priorities.

    It is eye–popping offense that matters in the Pac–12, and UCLA has a huge advantage over Stanford in that department with QB Brett Hundley (sixth in passing efficiency) and RB Paul Perkins (averaging 115 yards per game).

    I pick UCLA to end Stanford's streak.
  • #13 Arizona State at #12 Arizona, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This will be the 78th meeting in this series, and it is all tied up.

    That's right, they've played 77 times and the series is tied. How is that possible? Well, back in 1987, before college football changed the rules to include a provision for overtime, thus eliminating ties, they fought to a 24–24 tie.

    If that rule had been in effect in 1987, someone would be leading the series today but only by a single game. It's remarkable that the series is as close as it is. After all, the teams have faced off every year since the end of World War II.

    To be fair, the series has gone through its lopsided periods, when one school or the other would dominate for years at a time, but since that tie 27 years ago, neither school has won more than three in a row against the other.

    Arizona State has won the last two games so a Sun Devils win would not alter that trend in the series.

    Does home field make a difference in this series? Maybe a modest one, but it's almost dead even in games played on each campus.

    Statistically, both offenses are much better than the defenses — and, of the two, Arizona's has been better this season.

    Should be good. I'll take Arizona.
  • Arkansas at #17 Missouri, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This series isn't very extensive — only five games so far — but the pattern is that the teams take turns winning. Missouri won the last meeting — in the 2008 Cotton Bowl — so logic suggests Arkansas should win this one, the teams' first meeting in Columbia, Mo., in 108 years.

    The Razorbacks became bowl eligible with last week's 30–0 win over Ole Miss.

    The teams are just about even on defense — Missouri is ranked #23, Arkansas is #24. On offense, though, Arkansas has a clear edge, even though neither offense has really distinguished itself. Arkansas is ranked #52 and Missouri is #101.

    I'll pick Arkansas to win.
  • Western Kentucky at #19 Marshall, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: Folks who tune in to this game will get to see the nation's second–ranked offense.

    I am speaking of Marshall, of course, but Western Kentucky's offense is pretty good, too — #11 in the country.

    Marshall also has one of the best defenses in the country (ranked #14) while Western Kentucky has often struggled on defense.

    With its defense shutting down Western Kentucky, I'll pick Marshall to finish the season unbeaten.
  • #21 Colorado State at Air Force, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Historically, Air Force leads the series and had won seven straight before losing to the Rams last season.

    The 8–3 Falcons dropped to 2–10 last year, but they're going bowling this year and a win over Colorado State would be a great launch. Being at home probably will help. The Falcons have won their last five against the Rams there.

    Both defenses have played poorly so I have to give a huge edge to the better offense — and that belongs to Colorado State although Air Force's offense is good if not great.

    I'll take Colorado State.
Saturday
  • Florida at #1 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Florida State has won three of the last four games with Florida. The exception was Florida's win at Tallahassee in 2012.

    Fact is, Florida has fared pretty well on Florida State's turf. As is so often the case in these rivalry games, there is no home field advantage.

    Florida has a decisive advantage on defense. The Gators are ranked #11; the Seminoles are ranked #54.

    Florida State has the better offense (#37); Florida's offense (#82) has been its weakness this season.

    I will pick Florida State to win this game. I still think the Seminoles will lose in the postseason — whether it will be to Georgia Tech in next week's ACC championship game or the college football playoff, I can't say. I just don't think the Seminoles will repeat.
  • #15 Auburn at #2 Alabama, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Alabama comes into this game with the fifth–best defense in the country. Seems like old times.

    It's an old grudge match, the "Iron Bowl," and it would mean a lot even if a spot in the national championship tournament in January wasn't (apparently) hanging in the balance. It's a classic.

    For many years, it was played in neutral Birmingham — but, really, is any place in Alabama neutral? Nearly 70% of the games played in the series have been played in Birmingham, but every game played since 1999 has been played on one of the campuses. This year, it is Alabama's turn to host the game, and the teams are even, 5–5, in games played in Tuscaloosa.

    If that is good news for Auburn, it is tempered by the fact that Alabama is rated higher in both offense and defense. That disparity is particularly pronounced on defense, where Alabama is ranked #5 and Auburn is ranked #52. Alabama leads in offense, too, but the margin is closer — Alabama is #20 and Auburn is #22.

    Alabama has been playing better, and the Crimson Tide almost never loses at home. The last time was more than two years ago — to Texas A&M during Johnny Manziel's Heisman season. Usually you have to be an LSU or an Auburn to pull it off.

    Well, Auburn is the foe this weekend. Any chance the Tigers will win? I don't think so. I'll pick Alabama.
  • #3 Oregon at Oregon State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: As if Oregon didn't have enough advantages in this game, the Ducks have won their last six games with the Beavers — and, historically, the Ducks have a winning record on the Beavers' turf.

    Both defenses have more holes than Swiss cheese, but Oregon has the fifth–best offense in the country with Heisman prospect Marcus Mariota at the controls.

    I think Oregon will overwhelm Oregon State.
  • #4 Mississippi State at #18 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Like the Auburn–Alabama rivalry, fans of Ole Miss and Mississippi State don't need any special reason to want to beat the other. It probably helps Ole Miss' motivation, though, to know the Rebels could deprive the Bulldogs of that coveted fourth slot.

    The best moments should come when Mississippi State's ninth–ranked offense takes the field against Ole Miss' 10th–ranked defense.

    Ole Miss should have the edge when the Rebels have the ball, but both units have been prone to make careless mistakes this year. Ole Miss' offense is ranked 44th, and Mississippi State's defense is ranked 68th.

    Ole Miss leads the all–time series, but Mississippi State has won six of the last nine games. However, the Bulldogs have only won once in the last seven games played at Ole Miss. Can they buck the trend?

    In an upset special, I'm going to take Ole Miss.
  • #5 Baylor at Texas Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN: I guess everyone knows that Baylor is trying to win a spot in college football's Final Four in January. A victory over Texas Tech would also even the all–time series between these two schools.

    Both schools would still retain their sizable leads at home, but the series, which goes back to 1929, would be all tied up.

    Baylor's top–ranked offense is likely to give Tech's defense — one of the worst in the country — fits.

    Texas Tech's offense, ranked 18th in the nation, is pretty good, too, but it won't catch a break against Baylor's defense, also ranked 18th.

    In a game that might be a little more defensive than most people probably expect, I pick Baylor to win its fourth in a row against Tech.
  • Michigan at #7 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN: It's been a rough season for Michigan. Every program goes through it at some time, even the ones that have enjoyed a lot of success.

    Even so, Michigan (5–6) has a mathematical chance of becoming bowl eligible if the Wolverines can somehow beat Ohio State in Columbus. Is it possible?

    Well, in a series that dates to the 19th century, Michigan has winning records against Ohio State at home and on the road. To be sure, the Wolverines' edge in Columbus is narrow — a single game, in fact — but Ohio State has won the last six games played there.

    Michigan has the ninth–ranked defense, and it will have the challenge of facing the 10th–ranked offense. Should be interesting.

    Michigan's great weakness has been its offense (ranked #114th) and looks like it will be spinning its wheels against Ohio State's defense (#19 in the land). I have to take Ohio State.
  • #16 Georgia Tech at #8 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Georgia Tech has only beaten Georgia once in the last 13 encounters. Is there any reason to expect a different outcome this time?

    Well, Georgia's defense is ranked 13th, and Georgia Tech's is ranked 61st. Georgia Tech has a slight edge on offense (#24 to #26). Along with the home field advantage (where Georgia beats Georgia Tech nearly two–thirds of the time), I expect Georgia to win.
  • #10 Michigan State at Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN: Did you know Penn State's defense is ranked third in the country?

    I didn't. The Nittany Lions were once known as "Linebacker U," but they haven't had that reputation in recent years.

    This season, though, they have been quietly assembling a defensive resume. Only one team has managed to score 30 points or more against Penn State, and that team needed overtime to do it. The Nittany Lions have held seven of their remaining nine opponents to less than 20 points.

    Should be interesting when Michigan State's seventh–ranked offense takes the field.

    Speaking of offense, it is a wretched one (ranked #113th) that has been Penn State's Achilles' heel — and it figures to struggle against Michigan State's defense, which is also in the national Top 10 (#8).

    Recent history has been against Michigan State. The Spartans have lost eight of their last 11 games with the Nittany Lions, but this time I see Michigan State winning.
  • Kansas at #11 Kansas State, 3 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Kansas leads the all–time series, but the recent advantage belongs to Kansas State, winner of the last five straight.

    Kansas State also has huge advantages on both sides of the ball. I see no way the Jayhawks can win. I pick Kansas State.
  • #22 Minnesota at #14 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Minnesota has been getting a lot of ink lately, but Wisconsin is the one that brings the second–ranked defense into this game. Common sense says the Badgers' D will have lots of fun with Minnesota's 98th–ranked offense.

    For that matter, Wisconsin's offense is ranked 18th but should find it problematic to function against Minnesota's #34 defense. Still, the edge on both sides of the ball belongs to Wisconsin.

    Recent history also favors Wisconsin. The Badgers have beaten Minnesota 10 straight times, and Minnesota hasn't won in Minnesota in 20 years.

    However ...

    The winner of this game will win the Big Ten's West Division and face #7 Ohio State in next week's conference championship game.

    That seems to be plenty of motivation. Will it be enough to lift Minnesota? I don't think so. I pick Wisconsin.
  • South Carolina at #23 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: If you tune in to this game, you'll get to see the top–ranked defense in the land — Clemson's.

    South Carolina's defense hasn't played up to its usual standards this season and is currently ranked 93rd.

    Carolina has the edge on offense (#26 to #61).

    Historically, Clemson has beaten South Carolina 60% of the time. South Carolina has been a thorn in Clemson's side in recent years, though. The Tigers only lost four games in 2012 and 2013, but half of them were to South Carolina. In fact, the Gamecocks have beaten the Tigers five straight times.

    Today may be Clemson's payback — or, at least, the first installment.

    Defense really is king in the South, and I think Clemson's will be the difference in this game.
  • Kentucky at #24 Louisville, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: It has only been in the last couple of years that the football games between these two schools have been of interest to anyone outside the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

    And, as far as University of Kentucky alumni are concerned, a win on the gridiron still probably doesn't mean as much as a basketball victory would, but it's different when you're ranked and the prestige of the bowl to which you are assigned could be riding on every game you play.

    I'm inclined to think defense will be the decisive factor in this game. Offensively, Kentucky is ranked #72, and Louisville is ranked #73 so it's pretty much a draw there.

    But Louisville actually has a Top 10 defense (#7). Kentucky's defense is ranked 70th.

    I'll take Louisville.
  • Utah State at #25 Boise State, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Most of the numbers favor Boise State.

    Historically, Boise State beats Utah State nearly 80% of the time. Boise State has won the last 11 in a row and hasn't lost at home to Utah State in nearly 20 years.

    Boise State's offense is ranked eighth in the nation. Utah State's defense is ranked 32nd and should have its moments, but my guess is that Boise State will eventually wear Utah State down.

    Boise State's defense is average (48th) but should have the advantage against Utah State's offense (#71).

    I should be all set to pick Boise State, right? Well, Utah State hasn't lost since mid–October. A win could secure a share of the Mountain West's Mountain Division title. Of course, the same could be said for Boise State. Whether the winner earns a share of the title or wins it outright will depend on what #21 Colorado State does against Air Force.

    So, shall I take Utah State to pull off the upset? Nah, I'll go with Boise State.

Last week: 18–3

Season: 186–43

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Doug Flutie's Impossible Dream of a Play



I will always remember this day in 1984, the day that Doug Flutie threw a desperation prayer into the sky, and it was caught for a game–winning touchdown.

I was working on the Arkansas Gazette sports copy desk. It was the day after Thanksgiving. We didn't have a TV in the newsroom in those days, but one of the staffers brought in a portable TV so we could follow the football games that are always televised during that four–day holiday. One of the games being shown 30 years ago today was between Boston College and Miami (Florida) in the Orange Bowl stadium.

I didn't get to see the dramatic finish. I was busy working on the next morning's paper, but I could hear what the announcers were saying, and I could hear what my colleagues in the newsroom were saying as the teams lined up to run the play. And, when the final play happened, and the unimaginable had occurred, I could tell that something remarkable had happened simply from the sounds I heard from the TV and the folks who had gathered around the TV to watch.

That doesn't mean, of course, that I wouldn't have liked to see it. Fact is, I have seen it — several times. I just didn't see it when it happened.

Now, the game would have been exciting enough even without the last–second heroics. Miami was the defending national champion, having beaten Nebraska in the Orange Bowl the previous January. Miami's quarterback, Bernie Kosar, set a school record for passing yardage. His teammate, Mel Bratton, ran for four touchdowns.

For his part, Flutie finished the day with 472 yards passing and four touchdown passes, making him the first quarterback to pass for 10,000 yards in his collegiate career. Ever.

But all that had gone before was forgotten after the final play of the game.

Boston College trailed, 45–41, with six seconds remaining, and BC had possession of the ball at Miami's 48. It seemed like an impossible task, and it became even more impossible as the final play unfolded. Flutie, who, at 5'9" was short by NFL standards, needed a touchdown. He scrambled to his right, managing to avoid a sack, but he had been driven back about 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage.

Now, this undersized quarterback who had already thrown 45 passes that day had to fling one more pass at least 63 yards into 30 mph winds and hope that someone would catch it.

I suppose, if Flutie had had the luxury of time to stop and contemplate the enormity of the task before him, he would have been sorely tempted to just give up. It was a thoroughly improbable, impossible dream of a play.

The Miami defenders obviously didn't think he could do it because they virtually ignored wide receiver Gerard Phelan, who raced toward the end zone. Flutie's pass to Phelan threaded the needle between two Miami defenders and was complete for the game–winning strike. There was no margin for error. Everything had to go just right.

Shortly thereafter, Flutie won the Heisman Trophy. I don't remember hearing his name mentioned in connection with the Heisman before "The Pass," as Flutie's "Hail Mary" came to be known.

But I heard it a lot after that.

His professional career never really lived up to his collegiate achievement 30 years ago today. He started out in the short–lived USFL, then bounced around from NFL team to NFL team, gravitating to the Canadian Football League for several years before ending his career in the NFL.

He never played in a Super Bowl, but he did win a couple of the CFL's Grey Cups.

In America, I suppose, he will always be remembered for "The Pass."

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

College Football Playoff Field Isn't Adequate



Last week was easily my worst week for predictions this season. Lots of upsets. I picked some of them, missed most of them.

I don't know if my picking Alabama over Mississippi State really qualified as an upset, except from the perspective of the AP rankings — which is what I follow. I believe Alabama was the favorite going into that game even though Mississippi State was ranked #1.

As a graduate of the University of Arkansas, I was, of course, pleased to see the Hogs beat LSU, even if I didn't predict it. The Razorbacks will be bowl eligible if they beat Ole Miss this weekend.

There are some real mismatches this weekend, but there are also some intriguing clashes and some old–fashioned rivalries. And there are games with implications for the national championship playoff.

According to the selection committee, Alabama has moved into the top spot following its victory over Mississippi State. Oregon is second. Florida State is third. Barring an unexpected upset or two, those three seem to be headed for the national championship playoffs. But who will be the final member of college football's first Final Four?

Depending upon how games this weekend and the two weekends after that turn out, that fourth team could be Mississippi State or TCU. Or it could be Ohio State or Baylor. Actually, it supports what I have been saying all along — that a national championship tournament in college football needs at least eight teams.

But that is just my opinion.

Idle: #5 TCU, #17 Georgia Tech

Thursday
  • #12 Kansas State at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Kansas State has beaten West Virginia in both of their meetings since West Virginia joined the Big 12.

    West Virginia's offense (#12 in the nation) has been better than Kansas State's (#54), but Kansas State's defense (#30 in the nation) has been better than West Virginia's (#56).

    Perhaps no other college football season in my memory has had so many beneficiaries of the proverbial "any given Saturday."

    Anyway, I'm going to pick West Virginia. The way things have gone in the Big 12 this year, it makes sense, doesn't it?
  • North Carolina at #25 Duke, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Between 1990 and 2011, North Carolina only lost once to Duke. But Duke has beaten North Carolina in the last two meetings — first time that has happened in a quarter of a century.

    North Carolina has the better offense, Duke the better defense.

    The Tar Heels lost four straight games, but they have bounced back and need only one more win to be bowl eligible for the sixth time in the last seven seasons.

    I'll take North Carolina.
Saturday
  • Boston College at #1 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC and ESPN2: Florida State has won the last four meetings with Boston College. Historically, Florida State wins two–thirds of the time in this series.

    Boston College boasts the 16th best defense in the nation (FSU's is #57). Florida State has the statistical advantage on offense, #40 to #65.

    It really ought to be a pretty good game. It also ought to be fairly easy to catch Florida State napping. The 10–0 Seminoles have overcome every obstacle this season — and that impresses me because I have always believed that it is more challenging to repeat as champion than it is to win the championship the first time.

    I don't think Florida State will be undefeated when the season is over. They might lose the ACC championship game (their likely opponent will be #17 Georgia Tech or #25 Duke), or they might lose in the national championship playoffs.

    But I don't think they will lose to Florida next week, although you never know about those rivalry games — and I really don't think they will lose to Boston College. But it might be close.

    I'll take Florida State.
  • Western Carolina at #2 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This is one of a handful of mismatches on this weekend's schedule.

    There is simply no way Western Carolina will win this game. I pick Alabama.
  • Colorado at #3 Oregon, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Oregon hasn't lost to Colorado since the Aloha Classic on Christmas Day 1998. They have played four times since then, and Oregon has won all four.

    Colorado has the #5 offense in the land with the nation's best QB, Marcus Mariota and running back Royce Freeman. To be fair, Colorado has the #29 offense — and neither defense has accomplished much this season.

    I'll go with Oregon. The Ducks have only lost four times at home since 2008.
  • Vanderbilt at #4 Mississippi State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN or SEC Network: Mississippi State needs to shake off last weekend's loss to Alabama. Ole Miss is coming up.

    Actually, Vanderbilt might be just the tonic the Bulldogs need. Mississippi State has won 12 of its last 15 games against Vandy and hasn't lost at home to the Commodores since 1971.

    The numbers from this season clearly favor Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. Vanderbilt's offense is one of the worst in the country. The defense is better but not in Mississippi State's league.

    I pick Mississippi State.
  • Oklahoma State at #6 Baylor, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Oklahoma State has won seven of its last eight meetings with Baylor but lost the last time the teams played in Waco.

    Statistically, Baylor has huge advantages on both sides of the ball. With QB Bryce Petty, running back Shock Linwood and receiver Antwan Goodley running the nation's 1 offense, it is hard to imagine Oklahoma State's defense keeping up beyond halftime.

    I pick Baylor.
  • Indiana at #7 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: In 21 games played between these schools since 1989, the closest that Indiana has come to winning was a 27–27 tie in 1990 — and the Hoosiers had the home field advantage in that one. The Hoosiers have lost 11 in a row in Columbus, with their last road victory in the series coming in 1987.

    That would be enough of a reason to pick the Buckeyes, but wait, there's more. Ohio State has been better on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes have the #10 offense (featuring QB J.T. Barrett and RB Ezekiel Elliott) and the #17 defense.

    I pick Ohio State.
  • #8 Ole Miss at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: To me, Ole Miss–Arkansas always seemed like a natural border rivalry, but the two teams didn't meet during the regular season for 20 years, then revived the series about a decade before Ole Miss and Arkansas became conference rivals.

    The Razorbacks lead the all–time series, but the Rebels have been gaining on them with four victories in the last six years.

    Arkansas has the #22 defense in the nation. That could make for some fireworks when Ole Miss has the nation's #38 offense on the field. Arkansas' offense is ranked 47th — and probably will have problems against the 10th–best defense in the nation.

    As much as I want to see Arkansas become eligible for a bowl, I have to pick Ole Miss to win this one.
  • Charlotte Southern at #9 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Here's another mismatch. I'm sorry that Todd Gurley is out for the season, but he won't be necessary for victory this week.

    Georgia will win.
  • Rutgers at #10 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: The history of this series has been that the winner of the last encounter loses the next one.

    Of course, only five games have been played between these two teams since 1988 so I suppose you can't derive much from that. Still ...

    Michigan State has been much better on both sides of the ball. The Spartans are in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. They're playing at home.

    I have to pick Michigan State.
  • #24 Southern Cal at #11 UCLA, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I remember watching this rivalry game when I was a child. I lived two time zones away so I had no rooting interest in the game. I just enjoyed the color. It was like the Rose Bowl, which was always the most colorful bowl, no matter who was playing in it.

    UCLA has had the upper hand in the last two meetings, but Southern Cal has dominated the series, especially in recent years.

    UCLA has the #17 offense, and Southern Cal has the #32 offense. Neither defense has played particularly well so it is a matter of which offense is more capable.

    I'll pick UCLA.
  • Washington State at #13 Arizona State, noon (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Arizona State has dominated this series, especially the games that have been played in Tempe. Washington State has lost the last five games played there.

    The marquee unit in this game, though, is Washington State's offense — currently ranked sixth in the nation. Arizona State's offense is pretty good, too (#27 in the nation). As neither defense has been very impressive, I have to think this will be an offensive game, and the best offense (statistically, anyway) plays for Washington State.

    Washington State really is an enigma to me. The Cougars are 3–7. They got eliminated from bowl eligibility a couple of weeks ago so they went out and beat an Oregon State team that proceeded to beat Arizona State (8–2) last week.

    Comparing scores against mutual opponents can be inconclusive, though. Both of these teams have played Stanford this season. Arizona State won by 16; Washington State lost by 17.

    I'll go with Arizona State at home.
  • #14 Wisconsin at Iowa, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC and ESPN2: This will be the 88th time these teams have faced each other — in a series that dates back to the 19th century. In a series that old, there are bound to have been several patterns, and the most obvious one lately has been that one team wins two in a row, then the other team wins two in a row, then the first team wins two in a row again and so on.

    If that pattern holds true this year, it is Iowa's turn to win. Wisconsin beat Iowa in 2012 and 2013.

    But wait a minute. Wisconsin (8–2) is rated higher on both sides of the ball than Iowa (7–3). Wisconsin has the best defense in the nation (Iowa's ain't bad — #18).

    True, but Wisconsin could experience a letdown after last week's victory over Nebraska. Could Iowa pull off the upset?

    Maybe, but I just think Wisconsin will find a way to win.
  • #15 Arizona at #20 Utah, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This could be an important game in the Pac–12's South Division. If Southern Cal beats UCLA, the Trojans probably will win the division. But if UCLA wins, that opens the door for the Arizona schools as well as UCLA.

    The Arizona–Utah series has been a close one. Arizona has won the last two meetings and will even up the series with a win in Salt Lake City.

    Arizona brings the better offense into the game, but Utah has the better defense. I would consider those to be offsetting factors anywhere outside the Pac–12. But this is a Pac–12 game, and offense is more highly valued than defense. For that reason, I have to go with Arizona.
  • Samford at #16 Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: And yet another mismatch.

    Frankly, I can't understand why anyone would pay to see this game — unless it is to scout the youngsters when they come in to mop up in the second quarter.

    Auburn will win.
  • #18 Marshall at Alabama–Birmingham, 11 a.m. (Central) on American Sports Network: Marshall leads the all–time series, 7–2, but lost the last time the teams played in Birmingham.

    Marshall has the second–best offense in the country, thoroughly capable of grinding through UAB's defense. And Marshall's Top 20 defense should be able to stop UAB's offense — most of the time.

    I'll take Marshall.
  • #19 Missouri at Tennessee, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network or ESPN: These two have only been playing each other since Missouri joined the SEC in 2012. Tennessee hasn't been up to its usual historical standards in the last few years so, of course, Missouri has won both encounters.

    Can we expect anything different this time? Missouri won a shootout the last time the Tigers came to Knoxville, 51–48.

    Well, actually, I expect a much lower score. Neither offense has been particularly strong. Tennessee does have a pretty good defense, but Missouri's is better.

    A couple of touchdowns might be enough to win this one. I pick Missouri.
  • Minnesota at #21 Nebraska, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series goes back to 1900 — and Minnesota actually leads it. The Golden Gophers piled up early wins over the Cornhuskers, losing only five times in the first half of the century. Since the midpoint of the 20th century, the Gophers have only managed to win five times against Nebraska.

    One of those Minnesota victories came last year. It snapped a 16–game winning streak for the Cornhuskers, who haven't lost to Minnesota in Lincoln since September 1960.

    Minnesota (7–3) has the better defense, Nebraska (8–2) has the better offense. It's shaping up to be a duel of running backs — Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah vs. Minnesota's David Cobb.

    This could be one of the best games of the day. In the end, though, I think Nebraska will win.
  • New Mexico at #22 Colorado State, 12:30 p.m. (Central) on ROOT Network: Colorado State has won four straight in this series and three straight at home.

    Neither team has been impressive on defense so my thinking is that it will come down to a battle of offenses — and, for that, Colorado State is better equipped with the 19th–best offense in the country. New Mexico's offense is #62, not bad and certainly capable of outplaying Colorado State's defense (#85), but New Mexico's defense is one of the worst in the country.

    I think Colorado State will win a shootout.
  • Kansas at #23 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: The Sooners have dominated this series, and they have won the last nine meetings. Kansas hasn't won in Norman since 1996.

    The numbers don't favor Kansas. Oklahoma ranks higher on both sides of the ball than Kansas. The Sooner defense isn't what it used to be, but Oklahoma's offense is ranked 20th in the nation while KU's is 100th.

    I can't see Kansas winning this one. Have to go with Oklahoma.

Last week: 8–7

Season: 168–40

Friday, November 14, 2014

Crunch Time for College Football



It's coming down to crunch time in college football. Who will survive to play for the national title in January?

Tomorrow's Mississippi State–Alabama game will go a long way toward deciding that. So could the Florida State–Miami game, even though Miami isn't in the Top 25 (although that could change if the Hurricanes beat the Seminoles).

Auburn was dealt what many thought was a fatal blow to the Tigers' national title aspirations when Texas A&M upended them last week.

Idle: #3 Oregon, #6 Baylor, #10 Ole Miss, #13 Kansas State, #14 UCLA, #23 Colorado State

Saturday
  • #1 Mississippi State at #4 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (CST) on CBS: Alabama has won 12 of the last 15 games with Mississippi State — and that winning percentage is actually below Alabama's all–time winning percentage in this series.

    Historically, the scores haven't been high. 'Bama usually wins by a couple of touchdowns. That suggests a setting that is favorable for defense.

    Alabama's defense is ranked fourth in the country, which should make it interesting when Mississippi State (#6 in offense) has the ball. Alabama's offense (#19) should have an easier time against Mississippi State's defense (#89 in the nation).

    The Crimson Tide is far more acclimated to the spotlight than the Bulldogs. I'll take Alabama at home.
  • #2 Florida State at Miami (Fla.), 7 p.m. (CST) on ABC: There have been some great games between these two programs over the years. Miami has fallen on rather hard times, but back in the day ...

    Florida State comes in riding a four–game winning streak that has brought the Seminoles within two wins of tying the all–time series.

    This is one of those series in which the visiting team has tended to be the winner, and the Seminoles have won nearly 55% of the time in Miami. Can they do it this time?

    Well, Florida State has a narrow advantage in the offensive rankings, but Miami has the 11th–best defense in the nation while Florida State's is ranked 50th.

    Some folks will think this is an upset, given that Florida State has the defending Heisman winner on its roster, but I'm going to pick Miami to win the game.
  • #5 TCU at Kansas, 2 p.m. (Central) on FS1: TCU has won both of its games with Kansas since joining the Big 12, but that is nothing new. The series with Kansas is one series the TCU football program has dominated from the start (a 41–6 win in 1942).

    This season, TCU has been far better on both sides of the ball than Kansas. In fact, TCU will bring the #3 offense in the nation to Lawrence. Lest you think that is almost entirely due to the game in which TCU scored 58 points in a losing cause against Baylor, let me remind you that the Frogs scored 82 points against Texas Tech and scored at least 41 points in four other games. They haven't scored fewer than 30 points in a game all season.

    For that matter, the Horned Frogs are entertaining thoughts of being in the national championship playoff. All that remains on TCU's schedule after the Kansas game are a trip to Texas (5–5) and a season finale at home against Iowa State (2–7).

    Unless the Frogs get distracted, TCU should win this one.
  • #7 Arizona State at Oregon State, 9:45 p.m. (CST) on ESPN: Historically, Arizona State has dominated Oregon State, but not so much in recent years. Oregon State has won four of the last six meetings and has won four straight at home. This won't be a gimme for the Sun Devils.

    Still Arizona State has the superior offense. Oregon State has a higher–ranked defense, but not by much, and its offense has struggled. I pick Arizona State to end its skid in Corvallis.
  • #8 Ohio State at Minnesota, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: How dominant has Ohio State been against Minnesota?

    The Buckeyes have won 24 of their last 25 meetings.

    The Buckeyes haven't lost at Minnesota since 1981. That's 12 straight road wins for Ohio State.

    Statistically, Ohio State is in the Top 20 in both offense (#10) and defense (#17). Minnesota's defense isn't bad (#21), but its offense is atrocious (#96).

    I expect the defense to set up enough scoring opportunities to help a Buckeye offense that might just find Minnesota to be more of a challenge than it has faced so far this season. I pick Ohio State.
  • #9 Auburn at #16 Georgia, 6:15 p.m. (CST) on ESPN: The Southeastern Conference is an interesting thing, full of apparent contradictions. Defense has always been what mattered most in the SEC, but there has been enough offense to produce several Heisman Trophy winners over the years.

    And, although the SEC has been dodging the bullet, it has long been said that there was so much talent in the SEC that almost no one can go through a season undefeated. It would even be difficult, most observers said, to get through a season with only one loss.

    Well, the SEC's luck may have run out. It is still possible for an SEC champion to emerge undefeated or with only one loss this season, but it will have to be unbeaten Mississippi State or once–beaten Alabama, who face each other tomorrow, or once–beaten Missouri.

    Auburn became the latest SEC team to lose its second game last week when the Tigers lost to Texas A&M.

    Now that the Tigers are probably out of the running for the national championship playoff, they face the challenge of Georgia tomorrow and Alabama in two weeks. Can they bounce back?

    This is the 110th meeting between these schools in a series that dates back to 1902. Georgia leads the series, 52–51–6, and has won two–thirds of the last 12 meetings, but Auburn actually leads in games played in Athens — although the Tigers haven't won there since 2005.

    Georgia has the higher–ranked defense by a slim margin, and Auburn has the higher–ranked offense by a wider margin.

    I will take Auburn to shake off last week's loss and get back on the winning track in Athens.
  • #11 Nebraska at #22 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: The all–time series between these two is all knotted up, 4–4. But, for a long time, most people — certainly all Cornhusker fans — will remember the 2012 Big Ten championship game between the two. Wisconsin handed Nebraska its greatest margin of defeat, at least in recent memory, 70–31.

    That was the only game played on a neutral site. Otherwise, the home team almost always wins this game — the sole exception to that rule was a Nebraska victory at Wisconsin in 1966.

    Nebraska has a narrow edge on offense. The Cornhuskers are ranked #17, the Badgers are ranked #24. Wisconsin has the top–ranked defense in the land. Nebraska hasn't been too shabby (#25), either.

    I think it will be a really good game, and I'll pick Wisconsin by a field goal.
  • #12 Michigan State at Maryland, 7 p.m. (CST) on Big Ten Network: The only time Michigan State visited Maryland, Michigan State won 8–0.

    Of course, you can't take much from the history of this series. It covers only five games, and Michigan State's last trip to Maryland was 70 years ago. In fact, the schools haven't faced each other at all since 1950.

    Michigan State has decisive advantages on both sides of the ball. It shouldn't be much of a contest. I'll take Michigan State.
  • Northwestern at #15 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: The schools haven't faced each other since 1995, the year Northwestern won its first Big Ten title since 1936. Northwestern's season–opening 17–15 victory over Notre Dame established the tone for that season.

    That win also broke a 14–game losing streak to the Irish, who have only lost to Northwestern four times in 27 previous meetings in South Bend.

    Statistically, the teams are pretty close on defense. It is on offense where the Irish enjoy a huge advantage.

    And that, I believe, will lift Notre Dame to victory in this one.
  • Washington at #17 Arizona, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: The pattern in eight of the last 10 meetings between these schools is for the home team to win. That favors the Wildcats because they're the ones eating home cookin' this year.

    Then there is the statistical aspect. Offense is the coin of the realm in the Pac–12, and Arizona's offense is ranked 14th in the land; meanwhile, Washington's offense has been weak by national standards, which are considerably lower than the Pac–12's.

    Neither defense has been impressive. I'll take Arizona.
  • #18 Clemson at #24 Georgia Tech, 11 a.m. (CST) on ESPN: Clemson has won three of its last four games with Georgia Tech, but that has been a rare stretch of success for Clemson in this series. Georgia Tech has won twice as many times as Clemson has; in a series in which 77 games have been played, that can be summed up in one word — domination.

    Clemson brings the nation's #2 defense into the contest; Georgia Tech has been mediocre on defense. Georgia Tech has been better than Clemson on offense — but not that much better. I'll pick Clemson.
  • Virginia Tech at #19 Duke, 11 a.m. (CST) on ESPNU: Duke snapped a 12–game losing streak to Virginia Tech last season. The last Duke victory predated the time when these two became conference rivals; in fact, it was Duke's first win over Virginia Tech in the state of Virginia in more than half a century.

    It hasn't been quite that long since Duke last beat Virginia Tech in Durham, N.C., where this week's game is being played, but it's still been awhile. Virginia Tech has won the last five times it has traveled to Duke. The Blue Devils' last home victory over Virginia Tech was in 1981.

    Statistically, Duke has the advantage on offense, although neither team has been overly impressive. On defense, the advantage clearly belongs with Virginia Tech (#31 nationally).

    I'm taking Virginia Tech in an upset special.
  • #20 LSU at Arkansas, 7 p.m. (CST) on ESPN2: This has become known as the Battle for the Golden Boot — so named because the trophy that goes to the winner, shaped like a geographical representation of the border states, resembles a boot.

    LSU has won the last three battles, but, if Arkansas has an historical advantage against LSU anywhere, it is in the state of Arkansas. The Hogs trail the series at home, 9–8, but that's better than their record in Baton Rouge, where the Hogs have only won twice in 15 visits.

    But that is what has happened in the past. This year, Arkansas has the higher–ranked offense, and LSU has the higher–ranked defense. In spite of all the Heisman winners in the SEC in recent years, defense is still the name of the game. Consequently, I'll pick LSU.
  • Rice at #21 Marshall, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This is a rematch of last year's Conference USA championship game, which Rice won, 41–24.

    They have played five times since 2007, and they've built a reputation for putting points on the board when they meet. No 9–6 scores in this series. Two years ago, Marshall beat Rice, 54–51.

    Marshall looks capable of putting up those kind of numbers again with the second–best offense in the land. Rice's offense, on the other hand, has struggled this year.

    If it becomes a matter of which defense is able to stop the opposing offense, my money is on Marshall with the #22 defense in the country. (Rice's is good, ranked #38, just not good enough.)
  • #25 Utah at Stanford, 5 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: Historically, Utah is 2–1 as Stanford's guest. That's the good news.

    The bad news is that it's been nearly 20 years since Stanford has hosted Utah.

    Statistically, Stanford is better on both sides of the ball. In fact, Stanford has the fifth–best defense in the country. Utah's offense, meanwhile, is ranked #82. Hardly seems like a match.

    The magic number for Stanford this season appears to be 20. Stanford wins if it scores 20 or more, which it has done five times. When Stanford scores less than 20, which it has done four times this season, it loses.

    This will probably be regarded as an upset, but I'll pick Stanford to win.

Last week: 15–3

Season: 160–33

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Gettin' the Job Done



One of the marks of a champion is that he gets the job done, sometimes in spite of himself.

Such was the case with Mississippi State last weekend. The Bulldogs were hosting my alma mater, the Arkansas Razorbacks, in Starkville. It was the Bulldogs' first home game since being voted #1 in the nation, and they experienced something of a letdown.

But once they got their engines going, they were able to prevail, 17–10. That is what it will take to get into this year's college football playoff.

Idle: #15 Nebraska

Thursday
  • #19 Clemson at Wake Forest, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: If you tune in to this game, you'll get to see the nation's second–ranked defense (Clemson). Well, Clemson does have an offense — it's ranked 48th in the land. QB Deshaun Watson is ranked second in passing efficiency with a 67% completion rate and six TD passes for every interception. His favorite receiver, Artavis Scott, has three TD receptions so far.

    Wake Forest doesn't seem likely to challenge Clemson. The Demon Deacons' offense is dead last in the national rankings. But Wake Forest does have a decent defense, ranked 40th in the country. It might make things competitive when Clemson has the ball.

    Historically, Clemson has thoroughly dominated Wake Forest, winning 16 of the last 20 (80%) and nearly 78% of all the games in the series.

    It might be interesting for awhile, but, barring something unforeseen, I really expect Clemson to win.
Saturday
  • UT–Martin at #1 Mississippi State, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: You know, I could go through all sort of stats and such to logically pick the winner, but it comes down to a few points: (1) Mississippi State is ranked #1; (2) Mississippi State is at home; (3) Mississippi State hasn't lost a home game to a nonconference opponent since Oct. 10, 2009, when the Bulldogs lost to Houston, and (4) UT–Martin just isn't good enough to be the one to break that streak. Never mind the names of UT–Martin's previous opponents. As a fellow I used to work with would say, only their relatives would recognize them.

    Let's move on, shall we? I pick Mississippi State.
  • Virginia at #2 Florida State, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Statistically, Florida State hasn't really played up to expectations. The Seminoles have a better offense, but the Cavaliers have the better defense — and plenty of motivation. This will be their 18th meeting, but Virginia has only won three times.

    They did win their last meeting, back in 2011 — but, historically, the Cavaliers have never beaten the Seminoles in consecutive meetings.

    This is the kind of game a champion must win — and I think Florida State will.
  • Texas A&M at #3 Auburn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Texas A&M began the season in what looked like a powerful way, but the Aggies have slid from the Top 25 with lackluster performances.

    The opponent and setting are not good for reversing the trend.

    Nevertheless, both teams have Top 25 offenses, and they are pretty close on defense, too. I think it should be a fun game to watch. I pick Auburn to win it in the final minutes.
  • #4 Alabama at #14 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Two of the top 15 defenses in the country will be on display in this game. 'Bama is ranked fourth, LSU is ranked #15.

    Not too long ago, this would have been the game of the year in the SEC. More likely, that designation goes to Alabama's upcoming clash with Mississippi State — assuming the Crimson Tide wins this game.

    And I do believe Alabama will win.
  • #5 Oregon at #20 Utah, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: QB Marcus Mariota and the nation's fifth–best offense should be quite a challenge for Utah's defense (57th in the nation).

    Should be a good game, but I pick Oregon.
  • #9 Kansas State at #6 TCU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: TCU's offense is ranked third in the nation. K–State's defense is ranked is ranked 16th. I expect fireworks when TCU has the ball.

    It shouldn't be quite as lively when K–State has the ball. Once again, TCU looks to have the edge — albeit a slight one — with a defense that is ranked 48th facing an offense that is ranked 56th.

    Should be a good one. I'll take TCU at home.
  • #13 Ohio State at #7 Michigan State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: A lot of good defenses are featured in games this weekend, but this might be the best match of the bunch. Michigan State's defense is ranked fifth, Ohio State's is ranked eighth.

    The offenses are pretty good, too. Michigan State's is ninth in the nation, and Ohio State's is tied for 14th.

    Historically, Ohio State has dominated this series. In fact, the Buckeyes have won four in a row on the Spartans' turf.

    But change is in the air this week. I pick Michigan State to snap the skid.
  • #8 Notre Dame at #11 Arizona State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In three previous meetings, Notre Dame has won all three by a margin averaging 17 points.

    Statistically, they seem to be evenly matched. Arizona State has the higher–ranked offense, and Notre Dame has the higher–ranked defense — although neither is too far behind the other in either category.

    At the end of the day, though, I expect Arizona State to prevail.
  • #10 Baylor at #16 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: The Bears' greatest foe in this game is history. Baylor is winless in 11 trips to Norman.

    The weak spot in this matchup is Oklahoma's defense (ranked 57th in the nation). It's obvious. Both of the Sooners' losses were games in which they gave up more than 30 points (to TCU and Kansas State). The OU offense kept both games close, but, in the end, it just couldn't score enough to overcome either team (both of whom are in the Top 10 today).

    Both offenses are very good — Baylor's is the best in the country, and OU's is ranked 18th. On defense, Baylor is ranked 17th.

    I'll go with Baylor in what might be the most entertaining game of the week.
  • Presbyterian at #12 Ole Miss, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Like Mississippi State's mismatch with UT–Martin, I see no point in going through all sorts of stats to support my pick in this one. I'll go with Ole Miss.
  • #17 Georgia at Kentucky, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Since 1997, Georgia is 15–2 against Kentucky, and that is fairly representative of the whole series, in which Georgia has been the winner more than 80% of the time.

    Georgia has been better on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, and should win its 16th out of the last 18 against Kentucky.
  • #18 UCLA at Washington, 6 p.m. (Central) on FS1: UCLA has won 12 of the last 15 meetings with Washington, and the Bruins have a decisive advantage on offense, which is the name of the game in the Pac–12.

    Washington has the better defense, but that isn't saying much. I'll go with UCLA.
  • Colorado at #21 Arizona, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: The defenses are about the same — mediocre — but both offenses are pretty good, especially Arizona's (13th in the nation).

    I pick Arizona.
  • #22 Duke at Syracuse, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network: Duke is 2–0 all time against Syracuse, but here's the catch: The last time they played, "Gone With the Wind" was two months from its grand premiere in Atlanta. That was 75 years ago.

    These days, this would probably be a darn good basketball matchup. In football, Duke (7–1) has the better offense, Syracuse (3–6) has the better defense.

    I pick Duke to remain unbeaten against Syracuse.
  • #23 Marshall at Southern Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on Sinclair and ASN: It may be the quality of the opposition's defenses, but Marshall has the second–best offense in the country.

    How good does it have to be against 3–6 Southern Miss? I'll go with Marshall.
  • #24 West Virginia at Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FS1: In three previous meetings between these schools, the visiting team has won every time. That's good news for West Virginia.

    West Virginia's offense is ranked 12th; Texas' is 99th. Texas has the higher–ranked defense (#37 to #62), but West Virginia's offense can score and Texas' offense can't. Well, it can, but not enough. Certainly not against a good team, and West Virginia has demonstrated, in its wins over Baylor and Oklahoma State and its narrow loss last week to TCU, that it is a good team. I pick West Virginia.
  • #25 Wisconsin at Purdue, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Wisconsin has an eight–game winning streak against Purdue and has won five in a row on Purdue's home turf.

    The nation's top–ranked defense will be featured when Purdue has the ball, but Purdue's offense is ranked 101st in the nation so I wouldn't expect too much from that. Wisconsin's offense, ranked 24th in the country, should be up to the challenge of Purdue's #77 defense.

    I'll take Wisconsin.

Last week: 13–3

Season: 145–30


Thursday, October 30, 2014

Rumblin' in the Jungle



"If you were surprised when Nixon resigned, just watch what happens when I whup Foreman's behind."

Muhammad Ali
October 1974

"Forty years ago this month, the eyes of the world turned to Kinshasa [Zaire] to watch the 'Rumble in the Jungle,' the legendary boxing event that saw Muhammad Ali and George Foreman slug it out for the world heavyweight title," writes Thomas Yocum for The Guardian.

Muhammad Ali was a great fighter, one of the greatest of all time, as he frequently told anyone who would listen. He wouldn't stop there, though. Often, he would tell folks who did not want to listen.

He was also a master showman, and I guess he figured — correctly — that most people believed that a 32–year–old boxer who had been prevented from competing during his prime years because he refused to fight in Vietnam would be unable to stay with the heavyweight champ.

George Foreman was young and powerful. He had grabbed the title in 1973 with a hammering of Joe Frazier, and, in his second defense of his title, he brought down one of the top contenders for the title, Ken Norton, in similarly dominant fashion. Seemed he barely worked up a sweat in either. At times, you could have sworn he was actually bored.

Frazier and Norton, it is worth noting, were the only two boxers who had beaten Ali up to that time. Norton broke Ali's jaw.

In the three years prior to his bout with Ali, Foreman fought in 11 fights — all but one were done in two rounds or less, and that single exception was finished in five rounds. Foreman was used to fights that were scheduled for 15 rounds; he simply wasn't accustomed to fights that actually went that long.

Therein lay the key to Ali's upset victory. He knew that the longer he could keep the fight going, the more he would frustrate Foreman. Foreman would make mistakes, and Ali would wait for those mistakes, then exploit them. It was his "Rope–a–Dope" strategy.

Well, there was more to it than that, but that's a pretty good summary of the strategy. The "Rope–a–Dope" strategy was to force Foreman to use a lot of his energy pounding away at Ali, who would lean back on the ropes and cover his face with his gloves while Foreman hammered his midsection. Few, if any, observers thought Ali could take punches anymore, especially the powerful punches Foreman threw, but he surprised them all.

"They told me you could punch, George," Ali taunted Foreman in the early rounds. "Is that the best you can do?" An enraged Foreman tried to throw even harder punches — but with no apparent effect on Ali.

Foreman became visibly tired, and Ali was able to bring him down in the eighth round. It may have been a bigger shock to the sports world than his triumph over Sonny Liston 10 years earlier.

Originally scheduled for Sept. 24, the bout was postponed for five weeks because Foreman suffered a cut near his right eye while he was preparing for Ali.

When the men finally met 40 years ago tonight, their fight began at 4 a.m. local time to accommodate the closed–circuit audience in the Western Hemisphere.

The postponement gave Ali an opportunity to bond a little with the locals while he spent the extra time preparing for the fight.

I remember seeing footage of Ali running Rocky–like through the streets of Kinshasa, and the locals, young and old, running along with him or watching from the side, were chanting, "Ali, bomaye!" — which means, "Ali, kill him!" It quickly became one of the most recognizable sports–oriented phrases ever.

Killing people wasn't Ali's way, though. Any boxing expert will tell you that the fighters who take that mentality into the ring with them are the sluggers, and Ali was no slugger. He was a finesse fighter, more likely to win on points than on a knockout. The ironic part is that Ali did win most of his fights by knockout. That's the thing that people often forget. It's the thing that Foreman apparently forgot, and it cost him his title.

That was the key to the success of the "Rope–a–Dope" strategy. Ali had a reputation for outlasting opponents and winning on points, even though three–quarters of his wins up to that time were by knockout, so his approach likely made sense to Foreman, probably the best slugger of the time. He didn't expect Ali to go for the knockout after Foreman ran out of gas, though. He probably expected Ali to land a lot of punches in the later rounds in an attempt to pile up points — and Foreman walked right into the trap, landing punch after punch to Ali's midsection — proving repeatedly that Ali could take a punch.

I suppose it would be natural for him to be bitter about the outcome.

"I hated Ali," Foreman told The Daily Express. "Hated him."

Understandable. Foreman was deceived. I guess everyone was.

Ali's "Rope–a–Dope" strategy wasn't evident in the first round. It was more evident in the second round — enough that Frazier, who was sitting ringside, remarked about it and wondered on the air, in response to British TV host David Frost's question, why Ali was leaning against the ropes so much.

By the end of the third round, Frazier was criticizing Foreman for being too wild in his punches and not thinking things through. He needed to be more deliberate and strategic. The champ was going to wear himself out, Frazier said prophetically.

Tellingly, when the fight was over and Ali was mobbed at center ring by admirers, Foreman and his entourage slipped quietly away almost without notice. Foreman's head was hanging in the dejection of defeat.

Nobody wants to mob a vanquished champion.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

A Peek at a Possible Final Four



If the college football season ended today, the playoff field would be: Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn and Ole Miss. So says the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Of course, the college football season does not end today — or this weekend. There are still many games to be played. And my guess is that, when the dust settles, at least two of the teams in the preliminary Final Four won't be in the playoff.

That doesn't mean they won't deserve to be — which is why I think a four–team playoff is inadequate for a sport in which more than 120 teams compete.

There are several teams who were left out of the preliminary Final Four but deserve to be there — and perhaps some will be included when the season is over. The playoff will be a good start, a tentative first step in the right direction — toward a real playoff.

And that is what this will be. Make no mistake about it. The first step.

A college football playoff needs to include conference champions, and there are at least five that should be represented — the ACC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the Pac–12 and the SEC. Others could be included but, obviously, some at–large teams would need to be there.

What every playoff, every tournament needs is the presence of a team that has the potential to be the classic underdog who seemingly comes from nowhere to win it all — or at least come close to winning it all. You can't have such an unexpected champion when the four best teams in the land are competing because it would be no surprise to see any of them win it. But if you have a 16–team field — and especially if the #16 seed beats the #1 seed in the first round — you have the potential for some first–rate sports drama.

Let's use this week's AP rankings to form a hypothetical 16–team field.

The top seed (Mississippi State) would host the #16 seed (LSU). The second seed (Florida State) would host the #15 seed (Arizona State). The third seed (Alabama) would host the #14 seed (Arizona). The fourth seed (Auburn) would host the #13 seed (Ohio State). The fifth seed (Oregon) would face the #12 seed (Baylor). The sixth seed (Notre Dame) would play the #11 seed (Kansas State). The seventh seed (Ole Miss) would host the #10 seed (TCU). And the eighth seed (Michigan State) would host the ninth seed (Georgia).

I don't know a college football fan who wouldn't want to see all those games — and the second–round matchups they produced.

Chances are that this field would include the champions of all five conferences — but there is a chance that the winner of a conference's championship game might have lost two or three games during the regular season but put it all together at the end — and still wasn't ranked in the Top 16. In that case, I suppose the selection committee would have to replace that conference's lowest–seeded team with its champion. How that would affect the seedings would depend on which approach the selection committee chose to take.

Idle: #3 Alabama, #8 Michigan State, #16 LSU, #22 Clemson, #23 Marshall

Thursday
  • #2 Florida State at Louisville, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Louisville has only beaten Florida State once — the last time they met, in 2002.

    That game, like this one, was played in Louisville.

    Louisville was ranked earlier in the season, but the Cardinals fell from the rankings after losses to Virginia and Clemson. Nevertheless, they have the nation's top–ranked defense, which should be able to frustrate the Seminoles' #44 offense. Meanwhile, FSU's 53rd–ranked defense should be able to handle Louisville's 91st–ranked offense.

    I think this could be a low–scoring, defensive game. I'll pick Florida State.
Saturday
  • Arkansas at #1 Mississippi State, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The Razorbacks lead the all–time series on the strength of their performance at home. In Starkville, they lead, 6–5, and they lost their last trip there two years ago.

    The Razorbacks are clearly better this year than they were last. Their offense is ranked 34th, and their defense is ranked 40th. Their problem is that every SEC team they have faced so far has been ranked — and each one they play for the rest of the season likely will be, too — until, possibly, the season–ending game with Missouri.

    As an Arkansas grad, I would love to see Arkansas beat the top–ranked team, but, once again, I just don't think they have the horses. Yet. Next year, maybe. Next year, most of the guys who are playing this year will have another year of college experience under their belts, and the game will be in Fayetteville — and Mississippi State probably won't be ranked #1. But this year, I have to pick Mississippi State.
  • #4 Auburn at #7 Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: There is a pattern in this series. Whenever Ole Miss beats Auburn, Auburn wins at least three in a row, often more, before Ole Miss wins again. It's been that way since the '70s.

    Anyway, Ole Miss beat Auburn two years ago, and Auburn beat Ole Miss last year. According to the decades–old pattern, Auburn should win this year and next year at least before Ole Miss beats the Tigers again.

    I'm sure Ole Miss is reeling from its loss to LSU last Saturday. But this is the nature of the SEC. No sooner do you get past one hurdle than there is another one in your way. This week's hurdle is fourth–ranked Auburn.

    Auburn has the 19th–best offense, which should be challenged by Ole Miss' ninth–ranked defense. That is the marquee matchup. When Ole Miss has the ball, the Rebels will be fielding the #61 offense. Auburn's defense is ranked #46.

    I think everything points to an Auburn victory.
  • Stanford at #5 Oregon, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Oregon lost three games in the last two years. Two of those losses were to Stanford, which has enjoyed more than its share of success in Eugene (16 wins in 34 visits).

    The task is daunting this year. Oregon has the eighth–ranked offense, led by the leader in passing efficiency, Marcus Mariota. Should be a challenge for Stanford's second–ranked defense.

    In true Pac–12 fashion, Oregon's defense is ranked 106th in the nation, but even that unit might be able to make some plays against Stanford's 80th–ranked offense.

    This will probably be regarded as an upset special, but I'm going to pick Stanford.
  • #6 Notre Dame at Navy, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This series dates back to the days of Knute Rockne, and Rockne never lost to Navy.

    This will be the schools' 84th meeting since Rockne's death in an airplane crash in 1931, and you'd swear Rockne was still coaching, based on the series record. The Irish are 74–12–1 against Navy.

    The series has actually been fairly competitive in recent years, though. In the last seven meetings, Notre Dame is 4–3.

    Statistically, there really isn't much difference between these teams on offense, but Notre Dame appears to have a solid advantage on defense.

    I know this will be a huge surprise, given the record of the series, but I'm going to take Notre Dame.
  • Florida at #9 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Georgia leads the all–time series and has won the last three meetings.

    Georgia's offense has been good but not necessarily great so far — but that is far ahead of Florida. Both defenses are ranked in the Top 10, which makes me think this could an old–fashioned SEC game with a final score like 9–6.

    But I have to take Georgia to win it, no matter the score.
  • #10 TCU at #20 West Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN: Since West Virginia joined the Big 12 two years ago, its games with TCU have been competitive — margins of a field goal or less both times — and the home team has yet to win.

    Statistically, these teams have been average on defense, and there isn't much that separates them. But they have been exceptional on offense. TCU is ranked second and West Virginia is ranked 10th. TCU scored 82 points against Texas Tech last week and nearly won at Waco two weeks before. Alabama held West Virginia to 23 points in the season opener, and the Mountaineers have scored at least 33 points in every game since.

    Should be a good game. I'm going to pick TCU.
  • Oklahoma State at #11 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Oklahoma State has dominated this series.

    K–State had the upper hand in the '90s, but, otherwise, it has been almost entirely OSU. This will be their eighth meeting since 2003, and Oklahoma State is 5–2 against Kansas State in that time.

    Historically, the Cowboys have a winning record in Manhattan, but it isn't as impressive as their record in Stillwater. Lately, though, the Wildcats have won seven of the last eight games played in Manhattan including the last one.

    Kansas State's defense (ranked 20th in the nation) is the marquee unit and should have little difficulty with Oklahoma State's offense (#72). It ought to be more competitive when K–State has the ball (#56 in the nation). Oklahoma State's defense is ranked 79th.

    I pick Kansas State.
  • Kansas at #12 Baylor, 3 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Baylor has beaten Kansas in six of their last eight meetings — and currently owns a four–game winning streak over the Jayhawks.

    There was a time when these teams were the doormats of their respective conferences — and even, for awhile, as members of the same conference. But times have changed for Baylor, which brings the nation's top–ranked offense (led by QB Bryce Petty and running back Shock Linwood) to this game. Kansas' offense is one of the worst (ranked #110).

    Baylor also has a pretty good defense (#18 in the nation). Kansas' defense is ranked 74th.

    It seems obvious. I pick Baylor.
  • Illinois at #13 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC and ESPN3.com: These teams have met nearly every season since 1914. The winner takes possession of the Illibuck, a carved wooden turtle, the second–oldest trophy in the Big Ten (behind the storied Little Brown Jug). Ohio State has dominated the series and has taken home the trophy 14 of the last 17 times.

    Both Ohio State's offense and defense are Top 20 units. Illinois' defense isn't even in the Top 100; I find it hard to believe the Illini will stop the nation's third–most efficient passer, J.T. Barrett. Illinois' offense isn't much better (#76).

    I have to pick Ohio State.
  • #14 Arizona at #25 UCLA, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: UCLA leads the series, but Arizona had won six of the last seven meetings when UCLA beat the Wildcats in 2012 and followed that with another win in 2013. Arizona has a slight edge when the game is played in Tucson; unfortunately for the Wildcats, though, the game is in Los Angeles this year, where UCLA wins nearly three–quarters of the time.

    This game has a couple of Top 20 offenses — Arizona is #6, UCLA is #20 — and a couple of mediocre defenses (UCLA is 86th nationally, Arizona is 97th). My guess is that many points will be scored.

    In spite of a couple of winning seasons in 2012 and 2013, Arizona is relatively new to the world of competitive football. In fact, both schools are probably best known for their accomplishments in basketball. The Bruins are more accustomed to the glare of the football spotlight than the Wildcats.

    I'll take UCLA.
  • #18 Utah at #15 Arizona State, 10 p.m. (Central) on FS1: Arizona State has a 10–game winning streak against Utah. Since Utah has been in the Pac–12 for only a few years, most of those games were nonconference matches that weren't necessarily played annually. You have to go back to the bicentennial year of 1976 to find Utah's last win over Arizona State.

    Statistically, Arizona State has a much better offense than Utah. And, while Utah has a higher–rated defense, it is statistically average. I think the Utes will be outmanned, and I believe Arizona State will win what should be an entertaining game.
  • Purdue at #17 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN: Purdue won its first meeting with Nebraska in 1958, then the teams didn't meet again until Nebraska joined the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers crushed the Boilermakers on their home turf, 44–7, last year.

    Running back Ameer Abdullah is averaging 156 yards rushing per game for a Nebraska offense that is ranked 13th. Sounds like Cornhusker football to me. I'll take Nebraska.
  • #19 Oklahoma at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: When I taught at OU, the Sooners had probably their worst football teams, but they always managed to beat Iowa State.

    In fact, Iowa State was probably the only team OU beat all four years I was there.

    The Sooners have now beaten Iowa State 15 straight times. OU's offense, which has had its rough moments yet is still ranked 33rd in the nation, might have some fun against Iowa State's #101 defense.

    I have to take Oklahoma.
  • #21 East Carolina at Temple, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNews: It's been 19 years since these teams faced each other — so it is practically like a new series. Certainly, it will be for the participants.

    East Carolina has the fourth–best offense in the nation. Temple's offense is 108th. Temple has the edge in defense, but I don't think it will be enough to overcome QB Shane Carden and receivers Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones.

    I'll go with East Carolina.
  • #24 Duke at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Duke has beaten Pittsburgh four straight times. Don't get carried away, though. Until the game they played last year, they hadn't faced each other since 1976.

    The marquee unit in this game, believe it or not, is Pitt's defense, ranked 17th in the nation.

    This is an important game for Pittsburgh. Duke, too, for that matter. The Panthers could be in a position to determine their own destiny with a win — and the Blue Devils could put some distance between themselves and the other teams in the ACC's Coastal Division by beating the Panthers.

    I don't think they will. I think Pittsburgh will win this game.

Last week: 16–2

Season: 132–27