The King Isn't Quite Dead

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Well, I told you so.

Last week it was the trendy thing to do to pick #3 Florida State to turn back #1 Alabama in their much–ballyhooed season–opening battle.

A victory for the Seminoles, it was said, would accomplish two things — it would dislodge Alabama as the king of college football (even though, technically, Clemson is the defending national champion) and the SEC as the dominant football conference. It would be the dawn of a new era, they said, in which Florida State and the ACC would be college football's gold standard.

And there were a lot of folks jumping on the Florida State bandwagon.

But a funny thing happened en route to this brave new world.

Alabama beat Florida State soundly 24–7, just as I predicted last week. OK, maybe I didn't anticipate the margin, but the king clearly isn't dead and likely only faces two or three legitimate challenges — if that many — between now and what probably will be the Crimson Tide's 12th appearance in the Southeastern Conference's championship game.

No, the outcome in Atlanta didn't surprise me.

And I wasn't really surprised that Maryland gave #23 Texas a rough time. As I wrote about a month ago, I thought Texas was overrated — and I definitely still think so after Maryland's victory in Austin last weekend.

In an email conversation with a friend of mine the next day, we agreed that new Texas coach Tom Herman was bound to be on the hot seat after such a dismal debut and with Southern Cal, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State looming in the not–so–distant future.

The sports writers in Austin seem to be giving Herman some room, acknowledging that the Longhorns are "the same players that lost to Kansas" last season.

But I grew up in this part of the country, and I know how impatient Longhorn fans can be. They might not be saying it right now, but the honeymoon is over for Herman. Now comes the hard part. It was always going to be the hard part, but it was made harder still by a 10–point loss to an 18–point underdog.

Kirk Bohls of the Austin American–Statesman wrote that Herman (only the third head coach in UT history to lose his very first game — and one of the prior two had a legitimate excuse, having lost on the road to an Auburn team that would lose only once that season) was baffled by Texas' tendency to be its own worst enemy.

I am tempted to compare the Longhorns to Donald Trump and his inclination to send out Tweets at the drop of a hat. Both seem to have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot, and it is far from clear whether either will be able to right the ship in time to save it.

The Longhorns' long–time rival Texas A&M appeared to be on the brink of a major road upset, but the Aggies allowed UCLA to rally from a 34–point deficit for a 45–44 victory.

Looks like both coaches will be squirming on the hot seat this season.

Friday

• #11 Oklahoma State at South Alabama, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools. South Alabama will probably hope it will be the last.
  
  I pick Oklahoma State.

Saturday

• Fresno State at #1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Alabama has only lost three games at home since 2012 — and each loss was to a national contender (at least after that team beat 'Bama).
  
  Fresno is coming off a 1–11 season. I hardly think Fresno will be 'Bama's fourth home loss since 2012.
  
  I pick Alabama.
• #5 Oklahoma at #2 Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's been almost 40 years to the day since Oklahoma's only other visit to Ohio State. The Sooners won that game, 29–28, on Uwe von Schamann's 41–yard field goal with only a handful of seconds remaining.
  
  Then as now, the game featured two teams from the Top 5. On that day, Oklahoma was ranked third and Ohio State was ranked fourth.
  
  I'm expecting another good, close game. And since the visiting team always wins in this series (when the teams played in Norman in 1983, Ohio State won, and the Buckeyes won again in Norman last season, 45–24), I choose Oklahoma in a modest upset special.
• #13 Auburn at #3 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: For the first half of the 20th century, these teams faced each other nearly every year.
  
  But they have only met five times since the 1971 season — and two of those games were in postseason bowls.
  
  Historically Auburn has dominated the series, winning more than 70% of the time. But Clemson has won the last two meetings.
  
  And my guess is that Clemson will make this its third straight win.
• Pittsburgh at #4 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: For most of the 20th century this was an annual in–state rivalry that got national attention every November, but it has been almost 17 years since their last meeting.
  
  Pittsburgh has been good but not great for the last several years. Penn State struggled for awhile in its transition from the Joe Paterno era but seems to be back on track. I expect home–field advantage to lift Penn State to victory.
• #14 Stanford at #6 Southern Cal, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: Historically Southern Cal beats Stanford about two–thirds of the time.
  
  But Stanford has won seven of the last 10 meetings, including the Pac–12 Championship Game in 2015.
  
  I pick Stanford in an upset special.
• Montana at #7 Washington, 7 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Washington is on its way up.
  
  I don't know anything about Montana, but I doubt that it will be much of a game.
  
  Washington is the choice.
• Cincinnati at #8 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After the way the Wolverines manhandled Florida last week, I'm a believer.
  
  I choose Michigan.
• Florida Atlantic at #9 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I can't see this one staying close for long.
  
  I pick Wisconsin.
• Louisiana–Monroe at #10 Florida State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: After losing to Alabama last week — and it is certainly no disgrace to lose to Alabama — I expect the Seminoles to bounce back.
  
  Florida State should have no problems.
• Chattanooga at #12 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: It's hard for any visitor to win at LSU.
  
  For Chattanooga it should be impossible.
  
  I choose LSU.
• #15 Georgia at #24 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: It has been more than 36 years since the last time these teams met. It was New Year's Day 1981, and top–ranked Georgia beat seventh–ranked Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, 17–10.
  
  The setting is not nearly so dramatic this time — and Georgia clearly has no Herschel Walker in the backfield this time — but I predict the same outcome. I choose Georgia.
• #16 Miami (Fla.) at Arkansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: I grew up in Arkansas, and this may be the highest–profile team to play in Jonesboro.
  
  I don't know if Arkansas State is any good, but I can't imagine ASU staying in this one for long.
  
  I pick Miami.
• #17 Louisville at North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This one might actually be close for awhile.
  
  North Carolina has been to bowls in the last four seasons and even had an 11–win season in 2015.
  
  Louisville holds a 4–3 lead in the series, but the teams are tied at 2–2 in games played at North Carolina.
  
  While the home field may help the Tar Heels for awhile, my pick is Louisville.
• Delaware at #18 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ACC Network: There is no reason why this one should be close.
  
  Virginia Tech will win.
• Charlotte at #19 Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central): The oddsmakers don't think this will be competitive, and neither do I. The oddsmakers make Kansas State a 35–point favorite. I agree.
  
  The pick is Kansas State.
• Boise State at #20 Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Washington State has won all four of the previous meetings with Boise State, but the teams haven't met since 2001.
  
  In the interim Boise State has had some pretty good teams. Only recently has Washington State been regarded as one of the nation's best.
  
  The Cougars are favored by 10. I can go along with that. The pick is Washington State.
• #21 South Florida at Connecticut, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNEWS: UConn went 3–9 last year. One of those losses was by 15 points at South Florida.
  
  Sounds about right, even though UConn is at home this time. My pick is South Florida.
• Northern Colorado at #22 Florida, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The bookies aren't taking bets on this one anymore, and who can blame them?
  
  Florida should win easily.
• #23 TCU at Arkansas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: When I was growing up, these two teams played in the Southwest Conference, which meant they faced each other every year.
  
  It was practically an automatic win for the Razorbacks, who lost to TCU for the first time in my lifetime when I was in college.
  
  Things have changed for both schools, and they have only met once since the SWC disbanded, but Arkansas won that encounter. I predict that Arkansas will win this one, too. It's another upset special since TCU is picked by a field goal, but it seems like old times ...
• Indiana State at #25 Tennessee, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: The only time that I can recall that Indiana State had a team worthy of national attention was when Larry Bird played basketball there.
  
  I fully expect Tennessee to triumph.

Last week: 18–3

Overall: 20–3

Last week's upset specials: 0–2

Overall upset specials: 0–2

OU, Florida State Seek Legitimacy

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In many ways, the 2011 Oklahoma Sooners are the Rodney Dangerfields of college football.

They don't get no respect.

It's tough, as I have observed here recently, to be the preseason #1, as the Sooners were this year, with all the expectations that designation carries with it — and many sports writers have been speculating about when, not if OU would lose.

That isn't unreasonable. The Sooners will face several quality opponents this season, most of whom are ranked and some others who could be if things fall just right.

I, too, am skeptical about their chances of having a perfect season. I believe the top–ranked Sooners can be beaten, possibly more than once.

But I'm skeptical of all the perceived contenders' chances of going undefeated. Frankly, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the national championship game doesn't come down to two one–loss teams this year.

I don't know — and neither does anyone else — whether Oklahoma will be one of those two teams. But I think it is definitely possible that, if it is OU's destiny to be one of two one–loss teams playing for the national title, this game with Florida State could be OU's one loss.

For that matter, it could be Florida State's only loss.

John Shinn of the Norman (Okla.) Transcript writes that the Sooners are eager to make a statement in this road trip.

I'm sure their hosts are just as eager to make a statement. Should be a fun game to watch.

No one in the Top 25 is idle this week.

Thursday

• #3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State, 7 p.m. on ESPN: LSU has won 11 in a row against Mississippi State.
  
  MSU's last victory in the series came in 1999 in Starkville, Miss., where they will be playing this year.
  
  Mississippi State gave Auburn a good run for its money last week, and I'm inclined to think the same thing will happen this week. LSU usually beats MSU by a double–digit margin, but I think MSU will keep it within a TD this time.
  
  LSU still will win.

Friday

• #4 Boise State at Toledo, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These two schools met last year, and Boise State won easily, 57–14.
  
  It won't be that easy this time, but I still think Boise State will prevail by 10 points, at least.

Saturday

• #1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the second time these teams have met since OU beat FSU for the national title on Jan. 3, 2001. They played in Norman on Sept. 11 last year, and the Sooners cruised to a 47–17 victory.
  
  I think this will be the first time Florida State has ever hosted Oklahoma. They met in a couple of Orange Bowls in the late 1970s and early 1980s (OU won both), and the Sooners won a home game against the Seminoles in 1976, but that's it.
  
  I'm not convinced that OU can go unbeaten, but, at this stage of the season, I think the Sooners can beat Florida State by, perhaps, a touchdown.


• North Texas at #2 Alabama, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: I got my B.A. at Arkansas and my M.A. at North Texas.
  
  Those are Alabama's next two foes — starting with North Texas this week — so I expect to be pulling against Alabama a lot in the foreseeable future.
  
  Alabama and Arkansas are Southeastern Conference rivals so they have been playing every year for nearly two decades now. North Texas is not in the SEC, but 'Bama and UNT have met before — in 2009, in fact, North Texas came to Tuscaloosa and got hammered, 53–7, in Alabama's most recent national championship season.
  
  Six years earlier, North Texas came to Alabama and lost, 33–7.
  
  The last meeting before that was in 1995. Again, Alabama prevailed, 38–19. And that, I believe, is the extent of this series.
  
  Most football fans probably aren't interested, but UNT happens to have one of the largest student bodies in the state of Texas. A new stadium has been unveiled on campus this season.
  
  I suppose the one I used to go to when I was a graduate student there has been demolished, and my guess is that the new facility has a number of advantages over the old one, but I suspect that the seating capacity is not that much greater than it was in the old one.
  
  And most of those seats were empty when the football team played.
  
  I went to several games there when I was a graduate student, and — at best — about one–third of the seats were filled on any occasion. That is because UNT, being so close to Dallas and Fort Worth, was mostly a commuter school when I was there, and I imagine it remains that way today. Relatively few students remained in town on weekends; thus, a small segment of the student population attended football games there.
  
  If the UNT football team could bring big–name opposition to Denton, it would be a huge boost for the school and the city. But that probably isn't economically feasible for any major football team that can't get there by bus in a few hours.
  
  Nevertheless, I think a pattern has been established from the games that have been played between the schools. And no one in Denton seems to be suggesting that North Texas might be on the verge of reversing that pattern. The Denton Record–Chronicle sees week–to–week improvement in UNT's 0–2 start — but nothing that even remotely suggests that North Texas has a prayer of leaving Tuscaloosa without that goose egg in the win column.
  
  Considering that Alabama is a contender for the national title and UNT is a contender for, well, nothing much, I expect Alabama to win by a wide margin.


• #6 Stanford at Arizona, 9:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford has had the upper hand lately, but this series has been quite competitive in the last 20 years. Arizona holds a 9–7 edge.
  
  Arizona, which actually has been more successful at Stanford than at home, did beat Stanford the last time they played at Arizona, 43–38 in 2009.
  
  I don't expect history to repeat itself. I expect Stanford to win the game, but I think the margin might be just as close.


• #7 Wisconsin at Northern Illinois, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: This will be the fourth time since 1992 that these schools have met, and Wisconsin has won all of the previous three games.
  
  It may be hard to believe now, but Northern Illinois actually enjoyed a period of dominance over Wisconsin, beating the Badgers in 1977, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1988. NIU also got the better of Wisconsin in the early 1970s.
  
  But that's ancient history in this series. I think Wisconsin will make it four in a row, probably by a margin of a couple of touchdowns.


• #8 Oklahoma State at Tulsa, 9 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Tulsa has lost four straight to OSU, with its last win coming at home in 1998.
  
  In fact, on the occasions when these teams have played in Tulsa, it's been quite competitive since the mid–1970s. In the last 35 years, Tulsa is 6–4 on its home turf against Oklahoma State (in Stillwater, OSU is 13–0 against Tulsa during the same time period).
  
  I don't expect Tulsa to win — I believe Oklahoma State will win — but I do expect it to be close. Might come down to a field goal.


• Idaho at #9 Texas A&M: Idaho has had one winning season in the last decade. The Aggies, meanwhile, appear to be on the upswing.
  
  All things considered, I expect Texas A&M to win the game by close to 30 points.


• Washington at #10 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: This will be the teams' seventh regular–season meeting since 1967, and Nebraska has won the last three.
  
  That would suggest that the Cornhuskers, who have won at least nine games in each of the last three seasons, should be able to handle Washington, which hasn't won nine or more games in a season in more than a decade.
  
  But Washington actually won the teams' last encounter — in last December's Holiday Bowl. Was that an aberration? Or was it a sign of an impending shift in the times?
  
  I'm inclined to say it was the former. Nebraska should win at home.


• Navy at #11 South Carolina, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: These schools last met in 1988 when South Carolina was still an independent. The Gamecocks won that game, 19–8.
  
  South Carolina also won a home game with Navy in 1985, 34–31 — but lost at Annapolis in 1984, 38–21. And South Carolina beat Navy at home in 1982 and 1983.
  
  If Navy wins at South Carolina, it will be the first time that has happened since 1955.
  
  I feel pretty confident in asserting that South Carolina will win.


• Missouri State at #12 Oregon: I really don't expect much from Missouri State in this one.
  
  And there really isn't much to say about it.
  
  The Oregon media doesn't seem to have much to say about it. And, when the game is over, I doubt the Missouri State players will be eager to repeat it.
  
  I pick Oregon.


• Arkansas State at #13 Virginia Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on FSN: These teams haven't faced each other since the Hispanic Coaches Classic in August of 2002. Virginia Tech won that game, 63–7.
  
  Prior to that, Tech beat ASU 50–0 in 1997 and 34–7 in 1994.
  
  My point is that they don't play each other often, but, when they do, Tech usually wins by a wide margin.
  
  And, unless the Hokies take their eyes off the ball, I expect Virginia Tech to win this one, too — again, by a wide margin.


• Troy at #14 Arkansas, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on CSS: The Razorbacks are 3–0 against Troy since 2002, and they have rolled up more than 50 points in each of their first two games of 2011.
  
  Troy should not be overlooked, though. While its football program has only been in Division I–A for 10 years, it defeated a BCS school in its fifth game as a I–A school — and it beat a ranked BCS foe in its fourth season. Troy capped that fourth season with its first–ever bowl appearance and is currently 3–3 in postseason bowls.
  
  A trip to Tuscaloosa, Ala. — Arkansas' first road trip of the season — looms next week, but as long as the Razorbacks remain focused on the task at hand, I think they will win by about three touchdowns.


• #15 Michigan State at Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: The buildup for this game is almost sure to focus on the recent death of Bubba Smith, who led Michigan State's defense in the infamous 1966 clash with Notre Dame.
  
  This game won't be #1 vs. #2 like it was 45 years ago, but it is usually exciting, and the Notre Dame coach insists that the Irish are moving in the right direction. That could be dismissed as a coach's bravado, but I think he makes some valid points.
  
  Michigan State has won 10 of the 14 games between the schools since 1997, but more than half of those games have been decided by a touchdown or less.
  
  I think this one will be close, too — and, despite the fact that Notre Dame has stumbled to an 0–2 start, I'm going to predict that Notre Dame will pull off the upset.


• Tennessee at #16 Florida, 2:30 p.m. on CBS: Florida has a six–game winning streak in this series and has won 75% of the time since 1991.
  
  I think that says a lot about the current state of both schools' football programs, especially in recent years. Florida has contended for — and won — both team and individual recognition while Tennessee has struggled to break even in most of the last six seasons.
  
  It's rare for any SEC team to dominate another as consistently as Florida has dominated Tennessee — and it is important to remember that Tennessee was a frequent contender for national titles in the 1990s, even when the Volunteers lost to the Gators.
  
  The Volunteers insist they are not intimidated by the fact that Tennessee hasn't beaten Florida since 2004. I believe a victory in this game would signal a genuine turning point for the Tennessee program, but I don't believe that is going to happen. Not in Gainesville, where Florida is 10–2 against Tennessee since 1977.
  
  Florida should win by 10.


• #17 Ohio State at Miami (Florida), 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be only the second time these schools have met since their thrilling overtime battle for the national championship in January 2003.
  
  They played in Columbus last year, and OSU prevailed, 36–24.
  
  They didn't have an extensive history before that Fiesta Bowl game in 2003. They met in the 1999 Kickoff Classic, and Miami won that game, 23–12. Before that, their last meeting came when Woody Hayes was still the coach of the Buckeyes.
  
  But this year they are bound by their mutual reputations for being college football's bad boys — and the (arguably) worst of the bad boys, the Hurricanes of Miami, will have the home field advantage.
  
  Sometimes, life doesn't seem fair especially since Ohio State knew before last year's Sugar Bowl that the Buckeyes would be without nearly half a dozen players in the first half of the 2011 season, including one–time Heisman hopeful Terrelle Pryor.
  
  But, even though Ohio State doesn't have Pryor anymore — he went back on his pledge to stay in Columbus for his senior year and jumped to the NFL's Oakland Raiders, the bad boys of pro football — it hardly matters since he would have been serving his five–game suspension, anyway.
  
  I expect the game to be close, but, in the end, I think Ohio State will win the game.


• #18 West Virginia at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: West Virginia owns a five–game winning streak against Maryland.
  
  But that's rather long in this series, which usually sees success shift from one side to the other in two– or three–year bursts.
  
  And I'm going to predict that the pendulum will swing back in Maryland's direction. After all, the Terps have won three of their last five home games against West Virginia.


• Stephen F. Austin at #19 Baylor: I think these teams haven't met since 1947.
  
  But I doubt that it matters. Even if SFA had a decade's worth of recent Baylor game footage, I doubt that it would alter the outcome. I expect Baylor to win the game.


• Florida A&M at #20 South Florida, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big East Network: South Florida cruised past Florida A&M the last time they met — in 2005.
  
  I have no reason to think South Florida will not do so again.


• #21 Auburn at Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: It might seem to you that this is something of a natural regional rivalry. Well, it seemed that way to me, anyway — until I looked into the history of the series.
  
  And the truth is that this will be only the fifth time these teams have met in the last 40 years — and two of those games were postseason bowls.
  
  There was a time when they played somewhat regularly — in the late 1940s, early 1950s and most of the 1960s — but things were so lopsided in Auburn's favor that I suppose Clemson decided there really was no upside. And, in fact, Clemson hasn't beaten Auburn in more than 60 years.
  
  Will that change this Saturday? I'm inclined to think that it will. Despite its recent success, Auburn is not the team it was last year when it won the national title — and Clemson appears to be a better team than the 6–7 team it was last year. In what may be a mild upset, I take Clemson — by a point or two.


• #22 Arizona State at Illinois, 6 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: No matter what happens the rest of this season, Arizona State earned a spot on the 2011 highlight reel with its exciting victory over Missouri last week.
  
  Whatever the Sun Devils may have in mind for their encore probably won't make it, though, simply because the schedule did not bless ASU with a bitter rival or a highly ranked foe this week. Arizona State and Illinois haven't played since 1988 — and the Illini haven't been too accomplished in recent years (this season, they might be best remembered for being the most recent team to defeat Baylor, which they did in last year's Texas Bowl).
  
  I think Arizona State has what it takes to turn back Illinois, but I think it will be close.


• Louisiana–Monroe at #23 TCU, 1 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn.: When I was growing up, if you wanted to know how a TCU football team would respond to a loss, you simply looked at its performance the previous weekend.
  
  But that was the old TCU, not the one that went 36–3 in the last three years. The modern TCU responds to losses like its opening–weekend loss at Baylor, by punishing its next opponent — and the Horned Frogs did that against Air Force, which is probably more impressive than it sounds.
  
  Folks of my generation and earlier remember the Air Force squads that habitually struggled to win three or four games a year, but, like TCU, Air Force has enjoyed more success in recent years, winning at least eight games in each of the last four seasons.
  
  Beating Air Force was an accomplishment for TCU. Beating Louisiana–Monroe will not be, but that's who is next on the schedule, and I expect TCU to win by a wide margin.


• #24 Texas at UCLA, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: UCLA has beaten Texas the last three times the schools have faced each other.
  
  And some folks in California think the key to a fourth straight win may be the Longhorns' instability at quarterback.
  
  Historically, Bruins fans may have no reason to worry. You have to go back four decades — to 1971 — to find Texas' last victory over UCLA.
  
  Forty years of futility don't go down well in Texas, even as rarely as these schools play, and folks in Austin are probably more interested these days in avoiding a severe wildfire threat, but the Longhorns seem to be intent on rekindling their last experience at the Rose Bowl.
  
  There may be no good reason for doing so, but I'm going to predict that Texas ends that 40–year drought.

Last week: 17–3

Season: 38–5