From what I have been able to gather, my guess is that the Saints are more likely to go undefeated than the Colts are.That doesn't mean I think the Saints would beat the Colts if the two teams advance to the Super Bowl. I make that assertion, primarily, because the Colts' management has expressed a desire to put the well–being of the first–teamers ahead of the ego–stroking achievement of a perfect record.
That approach makes sense to me. The Colts have clinched their division title and, along with it, homefield advantage through the playoffs. The only reason to play the starters at all in the final three games is to keep them sharp for the playoffs.
The Saints are nearly to that point, but it still would be possible for the Vikings to overtake them — possible, not probable. Another New Orleans win, coupled with a Minnesota loss, would put New Orleans in position to choose between playing for perfection or resting the starters. That's a choice that would be pretty easy to make with Tampa Bay and Carolina on the schedule for the last two weeks.
Once seedings are settled in the NFC, New Orleans may be more inclined to let the first–teamers have some time off. Until then, I expect them to be going at it full tilt.
In short, if you play fantasy football, I recommend that you find replacements for your Colts but plan to play your Saints — until further notice!
We're down to three weeks in the NFL, and some truths are emerging.
- Three teams are definitely in the playoffs — Indianapolis, Minnesota and New Orleans.
- Three teams are almost in the playoffs — defending NFC champ Arizona, San Diego and Cincinnati. The Cardinals could have clinched their division on Monday night, but their loss to the 49ers keeps things in doubt in the NFC West for another week at least.
- At this point, it would probably take a miracle to get the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers back into the Super Bowl. That's what a five–game losing streak can do to a team.
- Of the teams that are still in the running, more AFC teams appear to still have a shot at the playoffs than NFC teams.
- Indianapolis (13–0) at Jacksonville (7–6) — If the Colts go undefeated this season, they will do so in spite of some narrow escapes. One of the most narrow came on Opening Day, when the AFC South rival Jaguars came to town and left with a 14–12 loss. In the weeks that followed, the Colts barely beat Miami (27–23), San Francisco (18–14), Houston (20–17), New England (35–34) and Baltimore (17–15). Now the Colts have a rematch with the Jaguars. Indy's coaches and players apparently care more about having a healthy squad for the playoffs than going 16–0. Now that they have locked up home field through the playoffs, the starters may well be rested extensively in the last three regular–season games — and that may benefit the Jaguars, who face a real challenge for a wild–card berth. Assuming the Colts give Peyton Manning and the rest of the first–teamers the day off, I'll pick Jacksonville to win.
- Dallas (8–5) at New Orleans (13–0) — The Cowboys haven't enjoyed any success against the Saints in this decade. The last time these teams met was in 2006, when the Saints came to Dallas and snapped the Cowboys' four–game winning streak, 42–17. Two years earlier, the Saints came to Dallas and left with a 27–13 win. You have to go back to 2003 to find the last time the Cowboys played in New Orleans (that, too, was a loss — 13–7 — in the regular–season finale). On Christmas Eve in 1999, Dallas lost, 31–24, in New Orleans. The year before that, they lost a 22–3 decision in New Orleans. In fact, it is necessary to go back to 1994 — Barry Switzer's first year at the helm — to find Dallas' last win over New Orleans (24–16). Not too long ago, the Cowboys looked like a sure thing for the playoffs — but we've been down this road before. I'll pick the Saints.
- Cleveland (2–11) at Kansas City (3–10) — This game has no real meaning. It will be the fourth time the teams have met since Cleveland resumed its pro football participation in 1999. Two of the games have been close, and the last two have been won by the home team. The Browns won a 31–28 decision in Cleveland in 2006. In 2003, the Chiefs won in Kansas City, 41–20. In 2002, the Chiefs won in Cleveland, 40–39. Neither team has much of an offense (Kansas City is 30th in the NFL, Cleveland is 32nd), and neither team has much of a defense (Kansas City is 30th, Cleveland is 31st). Gotta pick someone so I'll go with the home team — the Chiefs — by a couple of points.
- Arizona (8–5) at Detroit (2–11) — The Cardinals blew their chance to wrap up the NFC West on Monday night. Of course, it's damn near impossible to win a game when you commit seven turnovers. Now San Francisco holds an undisputed tiebreaker over Arizona, having swept the season series, and can win the division if they finished tied for first, but the 49ers will have to run the table, which is a tall order since they must travel to Philadelphia this weekend (although they do face Detroit and St. Louis in the last two games). The Cardinals can clinch the West if they beat Detroit this week and the 49ers lose to the Eagles. Even if San Francisco pulls off the upset against Philadelphia, beating Detroit this week and St. Louis next week would wrap up the division for Arizona. On the other hand, if the 49ers run the table and the Cardinals stumble against either the Lions or the Rams, Arizona will face a must–win situation in the season finale against red–hot Green Bay. For now, I'll pick Arizona to beat Detroit — and put some pressure on San Francisco.
- San Francisco (6–7) at Philadelphia (9–4) — The Eagles must be feeling like Rodney Dangerfield. They've taken the lead in the NFC East, and Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News writes that they're fun to watch but not worthy of a title. Michael Lombardi of NFL.com isn't so sure about that. Historically, the 49ers enjoy a 16–10–1 advantage over the Eagles, but Philly has won the last three regular–season contests and hasn't lost to the 49ers since 2003. To top it off, the Eagles are 4–2 at home while the 49ers are 1–5 on the road. I'll take the Eagles.
- Atlanta (6–7) at New York Jets (7–6) — They say that defense wins championships, and the Jets have the top–rated team defense, as well as the top–rated pass defense, in the NFL. The Jets also hold a three–game winning streak (whereas the Falcons have lost two straight). I'll take the Jets.
- Miami (7–6) at Tennessee (6–7) — It's probably a longshot for Tennessee to get into the playoffs now, even though they ripped the Rams to shreds last weekend. There are five teams ahead of them in the race for two wild–card slots, including Miami. To be in the playoff picture, even as pretenders, the Titans need to make a statement against the Dolphins this weekend. The good news for the Titans is that home field has been kind to teams in this series, and statistics seem to be on their side, too. Tennessee's team offense is 10th in the NFL (Miami's is 18th), and, even though Miami's defense is ranked higher than Tennessee's, it's nearly a draw in that category (the Dolphins are 19th in the NFL, the Titans are 23rd). I'll take the Titans.
- New England (8–5) at Buffalo (5–8) — Few teams have dominated another as completely as New England has dominated Buffalo in this decade. The Patriots have won 17 of the last 18 regular–season games, and the Patriots haven't lost to the Bills since Sept. 7, 2003 (the last time they lost at home was two days before the 2000 presidential election). Buffalo is 2–4 at home, but New England is a pathetic 1–5 on the road (the exception was the Patriots' win at Tampa Bay in October). The Bills only lost by a single point when they traveled to New England on Opening Day. What will happen when the teams play in Buffalo this Sunday (weather forecast — 30% chance of snow with a high of 30°)? I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Buffalo will top the Patriots this Sunday.
- Chicago (5–8) at Baltimore (7–6) — I'm not sure if Chicago was mathematically eliminated from playoff contention when the Bears lost to the Packers last weekend, but if not, it won't take much. The Ravens, however, still have a shot at a wild card, which ought to give them plenty of motivation. At this stage of the season, playoff prospects trump everything else when it comes to motivation; since the Ravens are still in the running and the Bears are not, I'll pick the Ravens.
- Houston (6–7) at St. Louis (1–12) — Houston probably has no chance of getting into the playoffs, but the Texans ought to handle the Rams with no real problem. Houston has a higher–ranked team offense (eighth in the NFL, compared to 25th for St. Louis) and team defense (13th in the NFL, compared to 27th for the Rams). The Rams also have lost five in a row since their only win of the season (a seven–point decision over Detroit) at the start of November. The teams have only met once, with the Rams winning in overtime in 2005. I'll pick the Texans to even the series and remain (at least mathematically) in the playoff race.
- Oakland (4–9) at Denver (8–5) — As terrible as the Raiders are, they did beat the Broncos the last time they played in Denver. The Broncos have the third–rated defense in the NFL (the Raiders are 28th), which shouldn't face much of a challenge against the next–to–worst offense in the NFL. I'll take Denver.
- Cincinnati (9–4) at San Diego (10–3) — This is probably the NFL's marquee matchup. The winner will be the odds–on favorite to get a first–round bye with the Colts. And it is possible these teams will face each other in the playoffs, but even if the Bengals win this Sunday and earn homefield advantage, I doubt it will be as cold for a playoff rematch in Cincinnati as it was when the teams squared off there for the AFC title in 1981. Nevertheless, the weather shouldn't be a factor in sunny San Diego this Sunday. The recent history of this series says a team wins two straight, then the other team wins. The Chargers won their last meeting (in 2006) but lost to the Bengals in 2004 and 2003. The Chargers won in 2002 and 2001. Based on that, I would give the edge to San Diego, but there's more evidence on the Chargers' side. In team offense, they're ranked 14th in the NFL (compared to 20th for the Bengals), although Cincinnati has the edge in team defense (the Bengals are fifth in the NFL while the Chargers are 12th). The Chargers, though, are red hot, and I'll pick them to win and remain on course for a first–round bye.
- Tampa Bay (1–12) at Seattle (5–8) — I guess the intriguing angle of this particular matchup is the fact that these two teams came into existence at the same time, in 1976. Recent history has favored the home team, but this series goes in streaks. Is it time for a streak that favors the visitors? Last year, the Bucs beat the Seahawks in Tampa, 20–10. The teams met in Seattle on Opening Day in 2007, and the Seahawks won that game, 20–6. The last time the road team won was in 2006, when Seattle won at Tampa, 23–7. Seattle also won at Tampa in 2004, 10–6. And, 10 years ago, Tampa upended Seattle on the road, 16–3. I'll go with the prevailing streak and pick the Seahawks.
- Green Bay (9–4) at Pittsburgh (6–7) — This game would have had greater playoff implications if the Steelers hadn't lost last week to Cleveland, prompting Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post–Gazette to proclaim the defending Super Bowl champs "losers." That's a conclusion that is difficult to disagree with, given the fact that Pittsburgh has lost to Cleveland, Oakland and Kansas City in its current five–game losing skid. I'll go with the hot team from the frozen tundra — the Packers.
- Minnesota (11–2) at Carolina (5–8) — The series with Minnesota hasn't been pleasant for Carolina in recent years — for several reasons. Last year, the Vikings hosted the Panthers and won, 20–10. In 2006, Carolina lost, 16–13, again in Minneapolis. In 2005, Carolina beat Minnesota in Charlotte, N.C., 38–13, and made the playoffs but lost to Seattle in the NFC championship game. In 2002, Carolina beat Minnesota in the third game of the season to improve to 3–0 but then lapsed into an eight–game losing streak that ultimately landed the Panthers in last place in the NFC South. Things were even worse for Carolina in 2001. The Panthers opened the season with a win over the Vikings but went on to lose the rest of their games and finished the season 1–15. This year, it looks like the Vikings are poised to win their third straight over the Panthers. Team stats certainly support that position. Minnesota is sixth in the NFL in team offense (Carolina is 21st) and sixth in the NFL in team defense (Carolina is 15th). I pick the Vikings to win — and clinch the NFC North.
- New York Giants (7–6) at Washington (4–9) — Filip Bondy of the New York Daily News writes that, after Sunday night's game, Philadelphia owns the Giants. Good thing for New York the season series with the Eagles is over — unless they happen to meet again in the playoffs. But what about woeful Washington? Well, the Giants have won 13 of 19 regular–season contests with the Redskins since the 2000 season, including their game at the Meadowlands earlier this season. But that was then — back when New York jumped to a 5–0 start. They've lost six of their last eight, and, even if they complete the sweep of the Redskins, they are going to need some help to get to the playoffs. I'll pick the Giants to beat the Redskins, but we'll see how things shape up in the final two weeks.
Season: 153–57.
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