Thursday, September 25, 2014

On Any Given Saturday



Last Saturday was a day filled with truly astonishing reminders of how quickly fortunes can change in college football — and how, as the old cliche goes, on any given Saturday ...

The most glaring reminders were eighth–ranked LSU's 34–29 loss to unranked Mississippi State (the Bulldogs' first win in Baton Rouge in more than 20 years) and #18 Missouri's 31–27 loss to Indiana, which was the Hoosiers' first win in Columbia in nearly 30 years.

Lots of folks were shocked that Indiana beat Missouri — but, if you look back at my predictions from last week, I picked Indiana to win in an upset. I did not, however, pick Mississippi State over LSU.

In fact, going into the fourth quarter, Mississippi State had a three–touchdown lead on the Tigers. If that margin had held up, it would have been the widest margin of victory for Mississippi State over LSU since 1980 (55–31).

But other outcomes affected this week's Top 25 as well — top–ranked Florida State barely survived #22 Clemson in overtime without defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and #2 Oregon struggled to put away Washington State, 38–31.

Idle: #2 Oregon, #3 Alabama, #4 Oklahoma, #14 Mississippi State, #20 Brigham Young, #23 East Carolina

Thursday
  • Texas Tech at #24 Oklahoma State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: OSU has dominated Tech lately, winning eight of their last 11 confrontations.

    The Cowboys have also beaten the Red Raiders five straight times in Stillwater. I think Oklahoma State will make it six straight at home.
  • #11 UCLA at #15 Arizona State, 9 p.m. (Central) on FS1: ASU back D.J. Foster is second in the country in all–purpose yardage and fifth nationally in rushing. QB Taylor Kelley is 14th in passing efficiency. Arizona State is 13th in the land in total offense. The Sun Devils are sure to test the #73 defense in the land.

    Arizona State has won three of the last five meetings with UCLA. I expect Arizona State to make it four of the last six.
Saturday
  • #1 Florida State at North Carolina State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Historically, the Seminoles beat the Wolfpack a little more than two–thirds of the time — and, usually, they haven't been defending national champs. But, when they have been the defending national champs, they've really clobbered North Carolina State.

    I don't know if the Seminoles will clobber 'em this time, but I do think Florida State will win.
  • Louisiana Tech at #5 Auburn, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Auburn is 8–0 historically against Louisiana Tech, and I have no reason to think anything will change this time. I pick Auburn.
  • Arkansas vs. #6 Texas A&M at Dallas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This was a great series even before I was a student at Arkansas. It goes back more than a century, and some great games have been played between those schools. I was fortunate enough to attend one when I was a student and another a few years after I graduated; both were nail–biters. Great traditions at both schools.

    Even though last year was a down year for the Hogs, they kept it close, losing by 45–33. They are better than they were last year, but that might not be enough in the powerful SEC West. I'd love to see them win, but I believe Texas A&M, behind quarterback Kenny Hill, will prevail.
  • #7 Baylor at Iowa State, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This series is all tied up, 6–6, and each school has a 4–2 lead at home. The Cyclones have won the last two games they've played against the Bears at home, but they've been crushed in their last three trips to Waco.

    Statistically, that means Iowa State should win, right? Realistically, though, Iowa State doesn't have a prayer against the Bears. I believe Baylor will win.
  • #8 Notre Dame at Syracuse, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Notre Dame has lost three of the last four meetings with Syracuse. In fact, you have to go back to 1914 and the days before America entered World War II to find Notre Dame's last win at Syracuse — although the Irish did win a contest with the Orangemen in the Bronx in 1963 that was considered a home game for Syracuse.

    Can Notre Dame end that 100–year drought? Yup.
  • Wyoming at #9 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: It's been more than 35 years since these schools met. They played a couple of times in the 1970s but never again since — until this weekend.

    I have found no reason to think Wyoming can do any better than its first trip to East Lansing. I pick Michigan State.
  • Memphis at #10 Ole Miss, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: Ole Miss beats Memphis 75% of the time. It is those occasional wins that keep fueling Memphis' fire; the last such win was 10 years ago.

    The Rebels have a good team, worthy of being in the Top 10, and, with Bo Wallace (#5 nationally in passing efficiency) at the controls, I expect Ole Miss to win without too much trouble.
  • Tennessee at #12 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series is about as even as it comes. All time, the series is 20–20–2, which breaks down to 10–10–1 at each campus.

    In recent years, it has been ruled by Georgia. The Bulldogs have won the last four, and they have beaten the Volunteers three straight times in Athens. Only once before has Georgia beaten Tennessee five straight times — that streak ended in 1924. Tennessee might make it interesting, but, when the smoke clears, I think Georgia will win.
  • Missouri at #13 South Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I've been thinking all along that Missouri wasn't as good as advertised and that someone would bump off the Tigers. Frankly, I had no idea it would be Indiana — well, actually, I did predict it, made it my upset special as you can see if you read last week's post.

    I really thought the Tigers would lose this week when they travel to South Carolina. I still think that. I take South Carolina.
  • #16 Stanford at Washington, 3:15 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This has been a remarkably competitive series over the years. Based purely on the series history (which Washington leads, 41–38–4), I would expect it to be an entertaining game.

    In the offense–happy Pac–12, Stanford's Kevin Hogan is eighth nationally in passing efficiency, and Ty Montgomery is 13th in all–purpose yardage; Washington's John Ross is 14th in all–purpose yardage. Interestingly, though, neither team is in the Top 60 in total offense.

    To add another wrinkle, Stanford has the top–ranked defense in the nation, which may only be a reflection of the quality of the opposition so far in 2014. Stanford has beaten UC–Davis and Army but lost to conference rival Southern Cal in a low–scoring affair (13–10).

    Stanford has dominated the series in recent years, winning seven of the last nine meetings. But Washington won the last time they played in Seattle. I don't think the Huskies will duplicate the accomplishment. I pick Stanford.
  • New Mexico State at #17 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I'm sure LSU will be in a surly mood after losing to Mississippi State last week, and I'm quite sure New Mexico State won't be able to stop the Tigers. I pick LSU.
  • Oregon State at #18 Southern Cal, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Southern Cal has won nearly 85% of its meetings with Oregon State, but the Beavers have been pretty successful at home, winning three of the last four contests there.

    Unfortunately for Oregon State, this year's game is in Los Angeles, where Southern Cal has won the last 22 meetings. You have to go back to 1960 to find the Beavers' last win in L.A. I don't think they will break that skid. I take Southern Cal.
  • South Florida at #19 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2 or ESPNU: This is the first–ever meeting between these schools.

    Wisconsin is a tough place for visitors, especially nonconference teams. In fact, the last nonconference visitor to beat Wisconsin was UNLV in 2003. I don't think South Florida (12–28 since 2011) can pull it off. I favor Wisconsin.
  • Illinois at #21 Nebraska, 8 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This looks like a possible trap game for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are coming off an emotionally charged win over Miami (Fla.) and there might be something of a hangover.

    Illinois hasn't won at Nebraska since 1924, but the 3–1 Illini need only one more win to match their total for last year. Can they get it at Nebraska? Possibly, but probably not. I'll take Nebraska.
  • Cincinnati at #22 Ohio State, 5 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: This will be the fifth time these schools have met, and Ohio State has won all of the previous four. Of course, three of them were played at Ohio State, as this one will be.

    Cincinnati has been successful in the 21st century, qualifying for bowls in most seasons (all but three) since 2000, but I don't think the Bearcats will win this one. I'll take Ohio State.
  • Texas–El Paso at #25 Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN: They've played twice before, and the home team won both meetings.

    UTEP hasn't had a winning season since 2005. Kansas State played well last week in a losing effort against Auburn, picked by many to make the field of four in this year's inaugural NCAA Division I playoff.

    K–State seldom loses back–to–back home games. It is even rarer when one of those losses is to a nonconference foe. I pick Kansas State.

Last week: 13–1

Season: 67–9

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Anything Still Can Happen

Nine teams in the Top 25 are idle this week, which makes this week perhaps the least interesting of the young season.

But not entirely.

Tonight's game between Auburn and Kansas State may be the game of the week. If Kansas State is going to be a contender for the national title, the Wildcats must defeat Auburn.

There are other games of varying levels of interest this Saturday — Clemson–Florida State, Florida–Alabama, Miami (Fla.)–Nebraska — and some games of regional interest.

The big showdowns are still weeks away, but this is the intriguing time of the season, when just about anything still can happen.

Idle: #7 Baylor, #9 Notre Dame, #10 Ole Miss, #12 UCLA, #15 Arizona State, #16 Stanford, #17 Southern Cal, #23 Ohio State, #25 Oklahoma State

Thursday
  • #5 Auburn at #20 Kansas State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Auburn's record against Kansas State is 3–0, but the teams have only played once since the Carter presidency.

    Nevertheless, this is probably the top matchup of the week in college football. Auburn's offense (led by running back Cameron Artis–Payne) is rated much higher than Kansas State's; K–State's defense is rated higher than Auburn's, but not by nearly as much. I've got to pick Auburn.
Saturday
  • #22 Clemson at #1 Florida State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Clemson seldom wins at Florida State — only once in the team's last 11 trips there.

    The Tigers have enjoyed more success against Florida State at home, but it is the Seminoles' turn to play hosts.

    They'll have to do so, at least in part, without Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, who has been suspended for the first half for making sexually explicit comments on campus. Will that make a difference? It could — Clemson is ranked ahead of Florida State in both offense and defense — but I don't really think it will. It may make the final score closer than it ought to be. I take Florida State.
  • #2 Oregon at Washington State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Believe it or not, there was a time when WSU dominated this series. Not lately. Oregon has won seven in a row and 21 of the last 28.

    Still, Washington State has a pretty good offense (currently #15 in the country) — but not quite as good as Oregon's. Defense is mostly irrelevant in the Pac–12, but, for what it's worth, Washington State's defense is ranked higher than Oregon's.

    Last year, in a 62–38 loss to Oregon, WSU QB Connor Halladay attempted 89 passes and threw for nearly 700 yards. He's back and presently ranked #32 in passing efficiency.

    Historically, Washington State has been more competitive against Oregon at home. Will that help this time? I don's really think so. Give me Oregon.
  • Florida at #3 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Alabama leads this series — as it does just about every series. The Gators have lost six of the last eight meetings, including the last three in a row — but they have enjoyed more success on the road than at home in this series.

    Not so long ago, this was the premiere matchup in the SEC. They met for the conference championship in 2008 and 2009, with each team winning once.

    You'd think, with their history, these teams would play a lot of close games against each other, but the fact is their last six games were all decided by at least 11 points — usually a lot more.

    Florida has a lot more to prove. I'll take Alabama.
  • #4 Oklahoma at West Virginia, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This is Oklahoma's second–ever trip to West Virginia. The Sooners won a wild one the last time they visited West Virginia two years ago, 50–49.

    Based on the early numbers, the marquee matchup in this game will come when West Virginia's 13th–ranked offense (led by QB Clint Trickett, who is 20th in passing efficiency, and receiver Kevin White, who is averaging 11 catches per game) faces OU's 19th–ranked defense. Oklahoma's offense is ranked a respectable (but hardly eye–popping) 39th while West Virginia's defense is 55th.

    I have to pick Oklahoma.
  • #6 Texas A&M at SMU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: This is the second of three consecutive games against former Southwest Conference rivals for the Aggies. They faced Rice last week, they take on SMU this week, and they must tackle Arkansas next week.

    We'll talk about next week's game next week. This week, I take Texas A&M.
  • Mississippi State at #8 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have been annual rivals every year but one since 1926. In all, they have faced each other 104 times in one of the nation's oldest rivalries. LSU has dominated the series, 67–34–3, and owns a 14–game winning streak against the Bulldogs.

    LSU rarely loses at home — especially against Mississippi State. MSU hasn't won in Baton Rouge in more than 20 years. I don't think it will happen this time. I'll take LSU.
  • Eastern Michigan at #11 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Michigan State is 6–0 against Eastern Michigan. Each game has been played at Michigan State, presumably so Eastern Michigan can get a big payday for being the sacrificial lamb. Michigan State usually holds Eastern Michigan to single digits — and typically wins by four touchdowns. I'll take Michigan State.
  • Troy at #13 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This is the first time these teams have met. Honestly, I can't think of a single reason to to pick the visitors. Georgia will win.
  • #14 South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: South Carolina has dominated this series, winning more than 80% of the time.

    It doesn't really matter where the teams play. South Carolina always wins — the last five in a row, 12 of the last 14, 19 of the 23 total games that have been played.

    So far, South Carolina has a much better offense, and Vanderbilt has a much better defense. But the opposition should be taken into consideration. South Carolina has faced currently sixth–ranked Texas A&M and currently 13th–ranked Georgia in the first three weeks; Vanderbilt has faced UMass and Temple (and, to be fair, currently 10th–ranked Ole Miss).

    I'd love to see Vandy win, but I just think South Carolina will win again.
  • Indiana at #18 Missouri, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Missouri has a much better defense — but defense isn't really decisive in this game, given that the Tigers ranked 50th in the nation.

    That's better than the Tigers' national ranking on offense (#76). Unfortunately for Missouri, the Tiger defense must deal with Indiana's offense, which is ranked ninth in the nation after putting up 70 points in two games.

    Keep an eye on Tevin Coleman, who is rushing for more than 200 yards a game for the Hoosiers. In an upset, I'll take Indiana to win on the road.
  • Bowling Green at #19 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Historically, Wisconsin has won all three previous meetings with Bowling Green by an average of nearly 20 points.

    Statistically, Bowling Green has a clear edge on offense; Wisconsin has a clear edge on defense. I have to take Wisconsin.
  • Virginia at #21 Brigham Young, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN or ESPNU: Believe it or not, Virginia leads this series, 3–1, and the Cavaliers won the only time they traveled to BYU — back in 1999. I'm not really inclined to think that Virginia will duplicate the accomplishment.

    BYU used to be synonymous with offense — but the Cougars are much more accomplished on defense these days. The Coogs are actually rated ahead of Virginia in both categories, but the ratings aren't too impressive on offense. I expect Brigham Young to win.
  • Miami (Fla.) at #24 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: The all–time series is tied, 5–5. The turning point in the series was the 1984 Orange Bowl, when Nebraska went for a two–point conversion late in the game — and about a decade before college football introduced overtime. Since (and including) that game, Miami has won four of the last five meetings.

    But the Hurricanes have never won at Nebraska, which is their assignment this weekend. Of course, they haven't been to Lincoln since 1976, either. Still, I pick Nebraska.

Last week: 14–4

Season: 54–8

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Big Ten Effectively Out of National Title Conversation

I really have to figure that the Big Ten is out of the running for one of the Final Four spots in NCAA football in January.

Most preseason pundits figured Ohio State — maybe Michigan State — would make the cut, but last weekend almost certainly ended that particular fantasy.

Third–ranked Oregon hammered seventh–ranked Michigan State. Eighth–ranked Ohio State got bumped off by unranked Virginia Tech. Michigan, the unranked standby, was blanked by Notre Dame.

Watch and see teams rise and fall in the race for the championship this season.

Idle: #1 Florida State, #5 Auburn, #13 Michigan State, #18 Wisconsin, #19 Kansas State, #23 Clemson

Thursday
  • Houston at #25 Brigham Young, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The guys who call this game will have to avoid using the team nickname Cougars — both teams are known as the Cougars.

    That hasn't really been a problem in the past. The teams have met only once before — last year, in fact, when Houston lost at home, 47–46.

    I don't think Houston will be able to keep it close this time. I pick Brigham Young to win.
Friday
  • #8 Baylor at Buffalo, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is Baylor's second visit to Buffalo. The teams have met three times, the last two in Waco, and Baylor has won all three.

    I saw Buffalo play Army, and I was impressed — with Army. Buffalo, not so much. I'm quite sure Baylor will win.
Saturday
  • Wyoming at #2 Oregon, 1 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: These schools have never met before. When the game is over, I doubt that Wyoming will want to return once the game is over. I pick Oregon.
  • Southern Miss at #3 Alabama, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the 30th meeting between these schools. Southern Miss seldom wins (only three wins all time, the last in 2000) and has never been the host team. If they haven't played in Tuscaloosa, as they will this year, they have played in Birmingham or Mobile.

    Alabama should win.
  • Tennessee at #4 Oklahoma, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have played twice in the Orange Bowl, and each team has won once. But they haven't squared off since New Year's Day 1968.

    That surprised me. I thought surely they had played each other more recently than that. But it's been nearly half a century.

    Tennessee is getting better, but the Volunteers aren't good enough to beat OU at OU. I pick Oklahoma.
  • #6 Georgia at #24 South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This series predates these schools' relationship as conference rivals. In fact, they were virtually annual rivals for more than 30 years before South Carolina joined the SEC.

    Historically, South Carolina hasn't won very often against Georgia, but the Gamecocks had won three straight against the Bulldogs before losing in Athens last year.

    Georgia wins about two–thirds of the time when the game is played in South Carolina. The Bulldogs have never lost three straight there; yet that is what they are risking this weekend. I expect Georgia to win.
  • Rice at #7 Texas A&M, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This was once an annual series — when both teams belonged to the Southwest Conference — but last year's meeting was their first since the conference disbanded.

    It was like old times, though. The Aggies won. It was their 16th straight win over the Owls. Texas A&M will win this time, too.
  • #9 Southern Cal at Boston College, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Southern Cal has won all four prior meetings with Boston College, including the only other time the game was played in Boston, in 1988. I have to figure the Trojans are on some kind of high after upsetting Stanford last week. Will it continue this week? I think it will. I pick Southern Cal.
  • Louisiana–Monroe at #10 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This will be ULM's third trip to LSU. ULM scored a touchdown against LSU once, and that was it for scoring. So I guess the betting line should not be on whether LSU will win but whether ULM will score. By the way, LSU will win.
  • Purdue at #11 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: In college football, you always know that rivalry games will be played, but most of them come along in the conference portion of the schedule.

    They're rather rare in the first month of the season, but the Purdue–Notre Dame rivalry is now in its third century, the first meeting having occurred in 1896. The Irish win about 60% of the time, and they have won 11 of the last 14 encounters, including the last six in a row. The Irish have been even more dominant at home, where they win about three–fourths of the time. Purdue hasn't won in South Bend since 2004, and the Boilermakers have only won there twice in the last 40 years.

    Give me Notre Dame.
  • #12 UCLA at Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox; The all–time series is knotted up at 3–3. Texas won the last encounter in 2011, but UCLA won the three before that.

    I don't think Texas will be able to handle the Bruins. I pick UCLA.
  • Louisiana at #14 Ole Miss, 3 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Historically, Ole Miss is 3–0 against Louisiana, but the games have been closer than you probably expect. The first time they met, Ole Miss pulled off a one–point win — and the Rebels went 8–3–1 that year.

    From what I have seen, the Rebels might be good enough to contend for the SEC title this year. I feel pretty confident in picking Ole Miss to win this game.
  • Army at #15 Stanford, 4 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: I've seen both of these teams play this season, and I can say two things: Army is better than it has been for quite awhile, and Stanford is overrated.

    If Army wins, it will even the all–time series, 6–6. To do that, Army will have to do something it hasn't done since 1975 — win at Stanford. Has Army improved that much? Probably not. I'll go with Stanford.
  • #16 Arizona State at Colorado, 9 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: These teams have met five times, all in the last eight years, and Arizona State has won all five.

    I don't see that anything has changed. Give me Arizona State.
  • East Carolina at #17 Virginia Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Virginia Tech has won 10 of the last 11 games between these two schools, and now Tech has a swagger it hasn't had in awhile.

    I don't see any way East Carolina can win this game. Give me Virginia Tech.
  • Central Florida at #20 Missouri, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Everyone knows Missouri had a good season in 2013, but the Tigers came close to losing to UCF the year before in the only other time the schools have met on the gridiron.

    I've felt all along that — by comparison, at least — Missouri would have a down year this year. And maybe Central Florida will pull it off. I don't think so, though. I'll take Missouri.
  • #21 Louisville at Virginia, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network and ESPN3.com: These teams have played only twice before, and those games were played in the late 1980s.

    Nevertheless, the all–time series is tied, 1–1. The home team won the first two games. Can Virginia extend the streak? No. I'll take Louisville.
  • Kent State at #22 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC and ESPN2: This is the third meeting between these schools. Like the first two, it will be played in Columbus. And, like the first two, Ohio State will win.

Last week: 19–3

Season: 40–4

Saturday, September 6, 2014

You Never Know

I knew I would miss at least one of my first–week picks. I always do.

But I was shocked that it turned out to be the South Carolina–Texas A&M game.

After all, the Aggies are playing without Johnny Football, who has jumped to the pros. They were starting a largely untested quarterback — and, as far as I could tell, they had the same defense as last year.

Plus they were playing in South Carolina. Everything pointed to a big South Carolina win.

Instead, Texas A&M won, 52–28. Astonishing.

We have some good games lined up today. Nearly everyone in the Top 25 is in action.

Idle: #6 Georgia

Today
  • The Citadel at #1 Florida State, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ACC Network and ESPN3.com: You know, I really can't think of any kind of scenario, short of one in which all of the Seminoles' starters are either suspended or killed, that would make a victory for The Citadel possible. I pick Florida State.
  • Florida Atlantic at #2 Alabama, 11 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Did you read what I wrote about The Citadel–Florida State? Substitute Alabama for Florida State, and the same thing holds true. These two actually have met once before, in 2012, and Alabama won the national title that year. Will history repeat itself? I don't know, but I think it will in this game. I take Alabama.
  • #7 Michigan State at #3 Oregon, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: This is the most intriguing game of the week — unless you're a Notre Dame or Michigan fan. These teams have met four times, twice at each school, and the home team has won every time.

    Of course, this is a series that hasn't been renewed since 1999. The first three meetings were lopsided. The one that was played in 1999 was within a single score. I expect this one to resemble that game, and I take Michigan State in an upset.
  • #4 Oklahoma at Tulsa, 11 a.m. (Central) on NBC or ESPN2: I taught journalism at OU for four years, and I was always astonished that this wasn't a regular thing. I mean, Norman and Tulsa are only a couple of hours apart.

    To be fair, the schools have played each other 26 times since their first meeting in 1914, but it isn't an annual affair. On a few occasions they have played each other in back–to–back seasons, and about a third of the time they play in Tulsa, as they are doing today. The Golden Hurricane has lost its last seven meetings with the Sooners and hasn't beaten OU in Tulsa since 1942. Oklahoma will win.
  • San Jose State at #5 Auburn, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 or ESPNU: Auburn is tough to beat, especially at home. San Jose State won't accomplish it. I pick Auburn.
  • Virginia Tech at #8 Ohio State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I really thought these schools had faced each other in the past, but I was surprised to learn that this will be their first–ever encounter in football.

    Ohio State is so hard to beat at home. The Buckeyes haven't lost there to a conference foe since Penn State beat them in 2011, and a nonconference foe hasn't won in Columbus since Southern Cal did it in 2009.

    And Tech is not an automatic 10–win team anymore. Tech was a very above–average 8–4 during the regular season last year before losing to UCLA in the Sun Bowl. What's more, Tech very rarely plays a Big Ten team — only twice in the last half–century — and both were in bowl games.

    All in all, I expect Ohio State to win.
  • Lamar at #9 Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: This should be a foregone conclusion. I pick Texas A&M.
  • Northwestern State at #10 Baylor, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox Sports Networks: Same as the Aggie game. It's a payday for Northwestern State. Baylor will win.
  • Memphis at #11 UCLA, 9 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: There seems to be no way for Memphis to win this game. Got to take UCLA.
  • Sam Houston State at #12 LSU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on SEC Network: Does anyone think Sam Houston State can win this game? I don't. I feel comfortable picking LSU.
  • #14 Southern Cal at #13 Stanford, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This could be the best game of the day, and I have to take Stanford to win.
  • #15 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Historically, Ole Miss wins nearly 80% of the time the Rebels host the Commodores. But when the game is played in Nashville, the Commodores hold a slight edge.

    But Vandy has lost two of the last three times the Commodores have hosted the Rebels. I have to take Ole Miss.
  • Michigan at #16 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: This series dates back to the late 19th century, but the schools haven't met every year. And Michigan leads the all–time series, 21–16–1, thanks largely to victories in six of the last eight meetings.

    But the Irish look to have the better team this year. Much better. I have to take Notre Dame.
  • #17 Arizona State at New Mexico, 6 p.m. (Central) on CBS Sports Network: These schools have faced each other 28 times, but the last meeting was in 1977 so, for all intents and purposes, it is a brand&new rivalry. In its first incarnation, Arizona State won 80% of the time — but four of New Mexico's five victories came at home. The last win, though, came on Nov. 28, 1942. Arizona State won the next 17 — and seems sure to win today.
  • Western Illinois at #18 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I can't imagine the Badgers losing at home to Western Illinois. I have to take Wisconsin.
  • McNeese State at #19 Nebraska, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Likewise, there seems to be no way McNeese State can win this game. Go with Nebraska at home.
  • #20 Kansas State at Iowa State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Fox Sports 1: Believe it or not, Iowa State actually holds the all–time edge in this series — and will hold the edge after today's game, win or lose.

    But K–State has won seven of the last eight meetings, and I really don't see any reason to expect that to change. I take Kansas State.
  • San Diego State at #21 North Carolina, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN News: These schools have met only once — in the 1998 Las Vegas Bowl — which was won by San Diego State. North Carolina evens the series today.
  • East Carolina at #21 South Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 or ESPNU: The Gamecocks are sure to be smarting after that whipping against the Aggies last week. And I'd hate to be East Carolina today. The Gamecocks rarely lose back–to–back road games. The last time was in 2012 when they lost to LSU and Florida. And they haven't lost back–to–back home games since 2006. I take South Carolina.
  • South Carolina State at #23 Clemson, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on ACC Network and ESPN3.com: I simply see no way South Carolina State can win this game. I take Clemson.
  • #24 Missouri at Toledo, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Missouri beat Toledo at home last year, 38–23. Toledo might be able to pull off the upset as the host team — and I do think Missouri will prove to be not quite as good as the hype suggests — but today I will go with Missouri.
  • Murray State at #25 Louisville, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Murray State won't win this game. 'Nuff said. Take Louisville.

Last week: 21–1

Season: 21–1