So now it comes down to the matchup everyone expected in the SEC Championship — until Auburn upended Georgia and rival Alabama in the regular season. But Auburn couldn't beat Georgia in the SEC Championship and missed a chance to play for the national title.
Now the fourth–ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (12–1) will face the third–ranked Georgia Bulldogs (13–1) for the national championship tonight starting at 7 (Central) on ESPN. I expect a classic defensive struggle in true Southeastern Conference fashion.
It is a battle that will be waged on many levels.
It is a battle between mentor and protege. Georgia coach Kirby Smart served on Alabama coach Nick Saban's staff until accepting his current position. This will be the 12th time Saban has faced one of his former assistants. So far he has won them all.
Most people probably expected to see the Heisman winner, Oklahoma senior QB Baker Mayfield, in the title game, but the Sooners lost a double–overtime classic to Georgia in last Monday's semifinal in the Rose Bowl.
That seems to make it less likely that the championship game will be an aerial show, which is probably for the best since both teams are in the Top 10 in pass defense. A good quarterback can still cause some problems for a good pass defense, as Mayfield demonstrated in completing 23 of 35 passes for two touchdowns and 287 yards against Georgia, but the quarterbacks for Alabama and Georgia, as talented as they are, are not close to his level yet.
While Mayfield was second in the nation in passing yardage, Georgia's freshman quarterback Jake Fromm was 60th and Alabama sophomore Jalen Hurts was 73rd. Both have potential, but both are still young and developing.
Hurts, however, does have the advantage over Fromm in the sense that he has been here before. Alabama came up just short in last year's national championship game against Clemson. It wasn't his fault. Hurts threw for one touchdown and ran for another, and the Crimson Tide played turnover–free football, but Alabama yielded three touchdowns in the final quarter to blow a 10–point lead.
Alabama junior wide receiver Calvin Ridley was No. 41 nationally in receiving yardage with 935 yards this season, making him the most prolific receiver on the field tonight. No other receiver in tonight's game finished in the Top 100.
That also seems to make it more likely that the game will be a battle on the ground, but neither team has a Top 10 runner. The closest is Georgia senior Nick Chubb, who ranked No. 26 with more than 1,300 yards and a per–carry average gain of more than 6 yards, but he has the No. 38 back, senior Sony Michel, to share the load.
Chubb and Michel — regarded by some as the best rushing twosome in college football history — will be challenged by Alabama's second–in–the–nation run defense.
Georgia is pretty good against the run, too. The Bulldogs' run defense ranks No. 18, which should be adequate against the nation's 61st–best rusher, junior Damien Harris. Hurts is dangerous when he runs the ball, too, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, but he only runs the ball about 11 or 12 times per game. If Hurts isn't able to throw against Georgia, he may have to do more running than usual.
Although the teams have faced each other 67 times, this will be the first time they have met since Oct. 3, 2015. Georgia has won less than 40% of the time and hasn't beaten Alabama since 2007. That, incidentally, was Georgia's third consecutive win against the Tide, continuing a pattern that has been characteristic of this series since the early '90s.
Since that time, one team wins three in a row, then the other team wins three in a row, then the first team wins three in a row and so on. Alabama's victory in 2015 was its third straight against the Bulldogs. According to the pattern of the series, that means Georgia will prevail tonight.
But Alabama was established as a 4½–point favorite once the matchup was certain. Is that significant? Well, I read that, since 2010, Alabama has been favored in all but one game — the exception being that game against Georgia in 2015.
Of course, the Tide has lost a dozen times since the start of the 2010 season — all games in which they were favored — so point spreads are not infallible. But Alabama's record is impressive.
The teams have met six times in Atlanta, with each winning three times. The last time they played there was in the SEC Championship in December 2012. Alabama was the winner. Georgia hasn't beaten Alabama in Atlanta since 1942.
So now it is time for me to make my final college football pick of the 2017 season. I've done pretty well in the postseason — but not so much in the national playoffs. I predicted Oklahoma and Clemson would be playing tonight, and you can see how well that worked out!
I hope I'm wrong again, but I really believe that Alabama will prevail.
National semifinals: 0–2
Bowls: 10–3
Overall: 222–52
Postponed by Hurricane Irma: 4
Last week's upset specials: 4–1
Overall upset specials: 17–24
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