Sunday, December 29, 2013

The Punch Heard 'Round the Football World



"Evidently nobody in authority realized that a full–grown man who attached such importance to a game was, at best, immature, not to say a case of arrested development. The saddest part of the whole affair is that nobody at Ohio State saw the denouement approaching and protected Hayes from himself."

Red Smith (1905–1982)

Red Smith is one of my favorite journalists. I guess it is appropriate to call him a sports journalist, and he probably accepted that during his lifetime, but he wrote that he always "wanted to be a newspaperman and came to realize I didn't really care which side of the newspaper I worked on."

Frankly, I felt the same way. Smith had a philosophy about sports journalism that I tried to keep in mind when I worked on the sports side of newspapers.

"[P]eople go to spectator sports to have fun and then they grab the paper to read about it and have fun all over again," he wrote. "I've always tried to remember ... that sports isn't Armageddon. These are just little games that little boys can play, and it really isn't important to the future of civilization whether the Athletics or the Browns win."

Thirty–five years ago, Woody Hayes would have been smart to heed those words, especially the part about how sports isn't Armageddon. If he had, Hayes' 28–year coaching career at Ohio State might not have come to an end when it did.

Hayes had a reputation for being a disciplinarian, a man who would take young men and mold them into leaders. He was a military historian who often applied principles from military history to his coaching.

It was known that Hayes had a temper that he couldn't always control. He once tried to punch a sportswriter following a loss, but he missed and hit the brother of the sports editor of another paper instead. A few years later, he almost got into a fight with the athletic director of another school during a meeting of Big Ten Conference athletic directors and coaches.

Late in his career, he seemed to have a particular animosity for photographers. He shoved a camera in the face of a photographer before a Rose Bowl game, leading to a three–game suspension, and about a year before the 1978 Gator Bowl, he took a swing at a TV cameraman late in a loss to Michigan.

In spite of his history, no one suspected, when Dec. 29, 1978 dawned, that the Gator Bowl between #20 Ohio State and #7 Clemson in Jacksonville, Fla., that night would be Hayes' last game as a college football coach.

But when Clemson's Charlie Bauman intercepted a pass late in the game to seal a 17–15 victory, Hayes punched him in front of God and the TV cameras — and, at that moment, I knew Hayes was finished.

I'll never forget that night. I was in my grandmother's home. My family had been visiting her for Christmas, but we were frantically preparing to leave Dallas ahead of an ice storm that was expected within a few days. That night, for whatever reason, my father and I decided to stop packing and watch the football game. We both watched in utter disbelief as Hayes struck the opposing player.

An era was ending in college football. It had been kind of a comforting, reassuring era when the giants from the ranks of college coaches were always there on the sidelines of the truly big games. One by one, though, they were stepping aside, and the next generation was taking over.

It was an inevitable transition. It happens in all walks of life with the passage of time, but we all know that people still get sentimental about endings. It is true of coaches, too; people are always wistful when longtime coaches leave. The coaches themselves are often wistful. It is a bittersweet time.

In many ways, the sports world is the same as it was when Hayes walked the sideline. But in other ways it has changed dramatically. One has to wonder, in hindsight, if Hayes could have remained the Ohio State football coach for much longer.

In the years after the legends of the 20th century roamed the sidelines, that drill sergeant mentality gradually fell out of favor with college athletic directors. There may be a few of them out there, but, for the most part, they have vanished.
"... Charlie Bauman intercepted a pass and went out of bounds right where the Ohio State coach stood. That architect of young manhood laid hold of Bauman and fetched him a roundhouse right to the chops. Fists flailing, he tried to charge onto the field, but his own scholar athletes, already bruised and bleeding from their pursuit of culture, overpowered him."

Red Smith

Hayes, it was said more and more frequently, physically assaulted his players during practice, and that did bother some people at the time, but most folks were willing to ignore it as long as he didn't do that kind of thing in public. After all, this was football, a man's game, and men are tough.

Today, a college coach who struck an athlete, whether in view of only his peers or a national TV audience, would most likely get the boot regardless of who he was. Politics — and political correctness — won't tolerate that sort of thing.

Three decades ago, schools were more protective of their star coaches, firing them only when they had no choice. And, on this day in 1978, Ohio State was left with no choice.

There really wasn't anything special about the 1978 Gator Bowl. It was the first time — and, until Clemson and Ohio State meet in Friday night's Orange Bowl, the only time — the schools faced off in football.

But the game set no records for scoring or anything else, as I recall. It is remembered only for Hayes' punch.

Saturday, December 21, 2013

The Bowl Season Begins Today



Today is the first day of the college football bowl season, and I have analyzed each bowl game involving a Top 25 team, right up to the national championship showdown between Florida State and Auburn on Jan. 6.

There are four games on the schedule today — but only one involving a Top 25 team.

As Erick Smith reports in USA Today, however, there is no shortage of intriguing storylines to follow over the next couple of weeks — even if the game in question doesn't have a Top 25 team playing in it.

So let the games begin.
Today
  • Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl: #21 Fresno State vs. Southern Cal, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: We're only a few days from Christmas. This is the last shopping weekend before the big day. A lot of people wonder why they should watch Fresno State play football.

    The most obvious is that Fresno State as a team came within a single victory of breaking into a BCS bowl game in the last year of the BCS' existence. The Bulldogs have the third–best offense in the nation.

    A lot of teams in the NFL are in the market for a good quarterback, and Fresno's Derek Carr, who will be playing in his final collegiate game today, is worth watching. He completed 70% of his passes during the regular season, and he attempted 605 passes. That is an average of more than 50 passes a game. His performance against the Trojans is sure to be a factor in draft decisions.

    These schools have actually faced each other twice before, and it's been a split decision.

    In 1992, they met in the Freedom Bowl in Anaheim, and Fresno State prevailed, 24–7. They last met in 2005, and Southern Cal was the winner on that occasion, 50–42.

    I think Fresno State will win this time.
Thursday
  • S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Utah State vs. #24 Northern Illinois, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As usual, the Heisman attention went to the winner, Florida State's Jameis Winston, and the runnerup, Alabama's A.J. McCarron. I suppose that is appropriate.

    Football fans can catch their last glimpses of both as collegiate players early in the new year.

    But the third–place finisher, Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch, will be finishing his collegiate career the day after Christmas. Lynch's numbers weren't eye–popping, but, like other quarterbacks who have gone on to success in the NFL, he did the things he needed to do to win — except in the Mid–American Conference championship game, which Northern Illinois lost to Bowling Green (I would argue, though, that the loss to Bowling Green was a team effort).

    These schools have only met once, in 1995, and Utah State won, 42–7. I expect Northern Illinois to return the favor.
Saturday, Dec. 28
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. #25 Notre Dame, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: A year ago, the Irish were preparing to meet Alabama for the national championship. Now, after an 8–4 campaign, the 25th–ranked Irish will face Rutgers, then (presumably) watch the Florida State–Auburn game along with the rest of the nation a week later.

    After playing for a national title, it is hard to imagine what would motivate Notre Dame in this game. Perhaps the desire to get a momentum jump on the 2014 season is what will push Notre Dame in this game.

    These schools have faced off four times before, and Notre Dame has won them all, three by shutout.

    This time they are returning to the original scene of the crime — kinda. On Nov. 8, 1921, Notre Dame beat Rutgers in New York, N.Y., 48–0. Ninety–two years later, the Irish will face the Scarlet Knights in New York's Yankee Stadium.

    I think Notre Dame will win — and it won't be particularly close.
  • Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami (Fla.) vs. #18 Louisville, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have met on the gridiron 10 times, but this will be the first time in a postseason setting.

    Miami won eight of those previous encounters, Louisville won one and there was a tie back in 1950.

    But get this: Louisville's only victory in the series occurred the last time the teams faced each other — in 2006. It has been nearly 10 years since Miami beat Louisville.

    Louisville's offensive leader is quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the fifth–best quarterback overall and the only one with a higher completion percentage than Fresno's Carr (by .08 of a percentage point) although he attempted more than 200 fewer passes than Carr did.

    It is often forgotten that Bridgewater, a junior, originally committed to Miami, then signed with Louisville. Do you suppose there might be a revenge factor in this game? I don't know, but Bridgewater should be careful. Miami's defense isn't as good as it used to be, but its pass defense was much better than its run defense this season.

    Of course, that kind of recruiting reversal works both ways, as Jeff Greer of the Louisville Courier–Journal observes. A safety who had committed to Louisville recently decided to sign with Miami instead.

    I pick Louisville to win a close one.
Monday, Dec. 30
  • Valero Alamo Bowl: #10 Oregon vs. Texas, 5:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be Texas coach Mack Brown's last game at the helm. He has announced his resignation at the conclusion of the Alamo Bowl.

    One of the many ironies of Brown's tenure that he is the only Texas football coach ever to lose to Oregon. He did so in the 2000 Holiday Bowl. Will he make up for it in his final appearance on the UT sideline?

    The schools met four times prior to that — in 1941, 1947, 1962 and 1971 — and Texas won them all.

    If Texas is going to beat Oregon, the defense, which has been frequently criticized this season, will have to play probably its best game of the year. Oregon's offense is ranked second in the nation, thanks to the presence of the sixth–best quarterback (Marcus Mariota) who is draft–eligible as a third–year sophomore, but he has already announced he will come back for his junior year. He completed 63% of his attempts and threw 30 TD passes while allowing only four interceptions.

    That's going to be quite a challenge for a Texas defense that is ranked 63rd in the nation overall. The Longhorns are better against the pass (#30) with 10 interceptions. Texas will have to put the brakes on Oregon's potent offense if Brown is going to end his 16–year tenure with a win.

    I don't think he will, though. He might — if Oregon is preoccupied by thoughts of the losses to Stanford and Arizona State that kept them out of the Pac–12 championship game and a BCS bowl.

    Not likely. I expect Oregon to win.
  • National University Holiday Bowl: #16 Arizona State vs. Texas Tech, 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have only met once — in 1999 — and ASU was the winner, 31–13.

    By the time they kick off for the second time, the Texas–Oregon game will be over, and speculation about Mack Brown's successor will be thrown into high gear. While the coaches in the Holiday Bowl, Arizona State's Todd Graham and Texas Tech's Kliff Kingsbury, are probably dark horses on anyone's list for the UT job, they are among the hottest coaches in college football, and a solid performance by one in this game, coming, as it would, on the heels of Brown's finale, could only enhance his case.

    It would be an upset if Texas Tech, which won its first seven this season but then lost its last five, managed to win this game, but perhaps the desire not to enter 2014 with a six–game losing streak will serve to motivate the Red Raiders.

    Doubtful. I expect Arizona State to win by a couple of touchdowns.
Tuesday, Dec. 31
  • Hyundai Sun Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. #17 UCLA, 1 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is the first time these two storied programs have faced each other.

    And, in the absence of any sort of history between the two schools, pregame attention has focused on other things — like the coaching vacancy at Texas. UCLA coach Jim Mora apparently sought to dispel any such speculation about him, saying the only part of Texas he intends to visit is the site of the Sun Bowl, El Paso, which is roughly 525 miles from Austin.

    Virginia Tech retains its gridiron reputation, but the fact is that the program isn't what it was when Michael Vick was the quarterback. Tech's offense was lucky to be in the Top 100 when this season was over (UCLA finished 37th behind QB Brett Hundley). Tech's defense is pretty good, though — the unit is ranked fourth in the nation — and UCLA's 56th–ranked defense is arguably its weakness, yielding at least 23 points (usually more than that) to seven of its 12 opponents in 2013.

    With a win, though, UCLA can cap a 10–win season for the first time since 2005. My guess is that UCLA will win — by a touchdown.
  • Chick–fil–A Bowl: #22 Duke vs. #20 Texas A&M, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is a match of arguably the two Cinderella stories of the last two seasons.

    Everyone knows the story of the Aggies, of course. Redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy in 2012 and led Texas A&M to victory over Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. It was the Aggies' first 11–win season since 1998.

    Duke amazed everyone this year. Sports fans are accustomed to seeing Duke's basketball team playing for national honors, but the football team is a stranger to these parts. The Blue Devils were bowl eligible last year, but they lost by a couple of touchdowns and reverted to the familiar sub–.500 territory with a 6–7 record.

    Prior to that, Duke hadn't been to a bowl in 20 years, and the Blue Devils haven't won one since the Jan. 2, 1960 Cotton Bowl.

    It will be hard for Duke to end its winless skid in the postseason. The Aggies' fourth–ranked offense is likely to have a lot of fun with Duke's 72nd–ranked defense.

    On the other hand, even though Duke's offense is ranked 68th, it might not have to work too hard against A&M's defense, which is one of the worst in the land (#108).

    I expect a high–scoring game, but, ultimately, I expect the Aggies to wear down the Blue Devils. I think Texas A&M will win by at least two touchdowns.
New Year's Day


  • TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs. #23 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This is the third meeting of these schools, each time in a different bowl.

    They first met in the 1969 Sun Bowl, a 45–6 Nebraska victory. They met for a second time last New Year's Day in the Capital One Bowl. Georgia won that one with a second–half rally, 45–31.

    In the old days, I guess it would have been easy to pick Nebraska to prevail. But times have change, and Georgia is the one with the national ranking this time.

    And Georgia enters the game with the better offense by far. But that was almost entirely when star quarterback Aaron Murray was running the offense. Murray's season ended with a knee injury, and junior Hutson Mason, next year's projected starter, will be starting against Nebraska. Mason did all right in his first start, the season finale against Georgia Tech, but it remains to be seen if the Georgia offense will live up to its regular–season standards against the Cornhuskers.

    Nebraska does have a better defense than Georgia, and that might be significant against an inexperienced quarterback.

    Even so, I expect Georgia to win.
  • Capital One Bowl: #19 Wisconsin vs. #8 South Carolina, noon (Central) on ABC: These teams have never faced each other before so the Capital One Bowl marks the first chapter of their series.

    Even though South Carolina, as a team, is ranked higher than Wisconsin, the Badgers are ranked ahead of the Gamecocks in both offense and defense.

    In fact, Wisconsin is ranked sixth in both total and run defense.

    According to USA Today, the running game will figure prominently for both teams. I believe that is true. Wisconsin has the eighth–ranked rushing offense; South Carolina's running game is ranked 30th.

    I think Wisconsin will win.
  • Outback Bowl: Iowa vs. #14 LSU, noon (Central) on ESPN: The last time these teams met, in the 2005 Capital One Bowl, Iowa won a thriller to ruin Nick Saban's last game as LSU's coach.

    People tended to overlook Iowa this year, largely because the Hawkeyes lost their season opener and then lost three of four in the middle of the season. Also, Iowa fell from the national radar after going 4–8 last year.

    But Iowa had the seventh–best defense in the nation this year. LSU's offense is good — ranked 26th — which sets up an interesting confrontation.

    It probably won't be as interesting when Iowa has the ball. The Hawkeyes are 79th in offense while LSU is 20th in defense.

    There could be some psychological stuff at work here. While LSU retains its national reputation, the Tigers have lost three of their last four bowl appearances.

    I think Iowa will win.
  • Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO: #5 Stanford vs. #4 Michigan State, 4 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The old adage that defense wins championships — or, at least, bowl games — may never have been better represented than in this year's Rose Bowl.

    These teams have met five times over the years, but the series has been dormant since 1996, when Stanford blanked Michigan State in the Sun Bowl.

    For that matter, Michigan State hasn't beaten Stanford since 1961.

    But things might change. Michigan State has the best defense in the nation. The Spartans aren't likely to be intimidated by Stanford's 65th–ranked offense.

    When Michigan State's 82nd–ranked offense is on the field, it will have to contend with Stanford's 14th–ranked defense.

    To say that I anticipate a low–scoring game is an understatement. I think 17 points will be enough to win it.

    And I give the edge to Michigan State.
  • Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: #15 UCF vs. #6 Baylor, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: My father usually only watches games that feature a personal rooting interest (team, player or coach) or a big name. A game between UCF and Baylor probably won't qualify.

    So why should you spend the first night of the year watching them play? Well, there are a few reasons. For one, Baylor is healthy again, and when all hands are on deck, the Bears are very entertaining. They have the best offense in the nation, averaging more than 50 points and more than 600 yards per game.

    UCF has the 19th–ranked defense in the land, but you have to wonder if the Knights will be able to contain Baylor's offense for 60 minutes.

    Baylor's 17th–ranked defense should have an easier time with UCF's 45th–ranked offense.

    The Wall Street Journal calls this the "Sharknado" bowl. I pick Baylor to win it by two touchdowns.
Thursday, Jan. 2
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl: #11 Oklahoma vs. #3 Alabama, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: As much as these schools have dominated the college football landscape for decades, I was astonished to learn they have only met four times — and two of those meetings came in the last 11 years.

    Oklahoma won the encounters in 2002 and 2003. The two earlier meetings were in bowl games — the 1963 Orange Bowl (won by Alabama) and the 1970 Bluebonnet Bowl (a tie).

    Back before the season began, OU coach Bob Stoops alleged that the Southeastern Conference, which has been home to the last seven national champions, was top–heavy. I know Alabama is disappointed to not be playing for a third straight national title, but it seems to me that Nick Saban should drag out that press clipping if he wants to motivate the Crimson Tide.

    Heisman runnerup A.J. McCarron leads an offense that is ranked 36th in the nation but is 21st running the ball. Oklahoma has a good defense (13th in the nation), and it was successful against both the run and the pass this season, but the Sooners were more successful against the pass than the run.

    When Oklahoma has the ball, the Sooners probably would prefer to run the ball, given that their ground game is ranked 18th in the country. But Alabama's run defense is ranked 11th so common sense suggests that, at some point, OU will have to go to the air, and that is a recipe for disaster. Oklahoma's passing offense is 99th while Alabama's pass defense is ranked fifth.

    I expect Alabama to win by a couple of touchdowns.
Friday, Jan. 3


  • Discover Orange Bowl: #12 Clemson vs. #7 Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Someone ought to call this the Woody Hayes Bowl because these were the two teams that participated in the Gator Bowl 35 years ago when Hayes slugged a Clemson player and wound up being terminated by Ohio State.

    That is the only time these two schools have faced each other — until now.

    Clemson played in the Orange Bowl two years ago and gave up an Orange Bowl–record 70 points, smashing a record that had stood for nearly 60 years. There are probably a few Tigers remaining from that roster, and I'm sure they would like to leave Miami with a better taste in their mouths this time.

    As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes were a Big Ten championship away from playing for the national title but lost to Michigan State, snapping a 24–game winning streak that was often said to be light on quality opposition. A win over a credible program like Clemson would go a long way toward rebuilding Ohio State's legitimacy as a national contender.

    In the end, though, I expect about the same outcome as in the 1978 Gator Bowl — minus the Woody Hayes punch. I think Clemson will claim a narrow win.
  • AT&T Cotton Bowl: #13 Oklahoma State vs. #9 Missouri, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: As colleagues in the Big Eight and Big 12 conferences, OSU and Missouri have a long history.

    In fact, their first six games were played when they were not conference rivals. But every game they played between 1960 and 2011 were as members of the same conference.

    OSU came out on the short end of the stick nine of the first 10 times the schools met, and the Cowboys have never been able to overtake the Tigers in their all–time series.

    After they joined the Big 12, they didn't play each other every year anymore because they were in different divisions. But they met annually from 1960 to 1997. Missouri was the winner most of the time, but Oklahoma State did reel off seven straight wins over Missouri from 1984 to 1990.

    That was Oklahoma State's longest winning streak in the series. The Cowboys are currently enjoying their second–longest winning streak (three in a row) against Missouri. Will they extend it?

    I think it's a tough call. This has the potential to be the closest bowl game of them all, but I think Missouri will pull it off.
Monday, Jan. 6
  • VIZIO BCS National Championship: #1 Florida State vs. #2 Auburn, 7:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: History is on Auburn's side in this game. These teams have met 18 times since 1954, and Auburn has dominated the series, 13–4–1.

    But this series is kind of a "that was then, this is now" kind of series. Auburn went 9–0–1 against Florida State the first 10 times they played each other, but since 1977, the series is dead even, 4–4. In fact, the Seminoles have won three of the last four encounters, including a victory in the Jan. 2, 1989 Sugar Bowl.

    But they haven't met since 1990 — when Bobby Bowden coached the Seminoles and Pat Dye coached the Tigers.

    Florida State's offense and defense both rank higher than Auburn's, but many college football fans are quick to point out that Auburn plays in the mighty Southeastern Conference — in a division that requires the Tigers to play Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M every season — whereas Florida State plays in the Atlantic Coast Conference, a conference that is better known for its basketball prowess.

    There is truth in that.

    But Florida State has been thrashing everyone it has faced this season, and Heisman winner Jameis Winston completed nearly 68% of his passes and had a ratio of touchdowns to interceptions of nearly 4–to–1. Auburn's defense is 63rd in passing efficiency, 104th in general passing defense.

    I pick Florida State to end the SEC's BCS dominance.
Last week: 7–3

Season: 224–46

Monday, December 16, 2013

2003: A Juice Odyssey



Forty years ago today, my father was finishing up his sabbatical in Nashville, and my family was about to return to my hometown in Arkansas.

I remember that my brother and I had just finished school and been dismissed for the Christmas holiday, and we had been withdrawn from school by my mother. We would enroll in school for the spring term in my hometown in January.

Most of our furniture (except for our beds) was rented because we knew we would only be there four months, but we had many personal possessions to pack.

The plan was to leave Nashville around Monday or Tuesday, drive home and unload all our personal possessions, then (after returning the U–Haul trailer) hit the road for Dallas to spend Christmas with my grandmothers.

We were making progress in packing our things, but on this day, which was a Sunday in 1973, we stopped what we were doing to watch O.J. Simpson of the Buffalo Bills try to do what no one had ever been able to do before — run for 2,000 yards in a season.

Actually, the emphasis was on setting a single–season rushing record. Finishing the season with 2,000 yards was viewed, right up to kickoff, as a still possible but far from probable outcome.

No matter how it may seem from the perspective of 40 years later, Simpson needed nearly 200 yards in the final game of the season to make it to 2,000. He had done that before during the 1973 season but not in his earlier match with the New York Jets, one of the Bills' division rivals and their opponent that day. Two hundred yards didn't seem a realistic goal. His realistic objective that day was to pass the legendary Jim Brown, who ran for 1,863 yards in a single season 10 years earlier.

Simpson needed only 60 yards to match Brown, and common sense said he could get that with ease. Simpson ran for twice as many yards when the teams met back in the third week of the season. Only the defending Super Bowl champion Miami Dolphins and their no–name defense had held Simpson to fewer than 60 yards in a game.

Momentum was clearly on Simpson's side. He had run for more than 100 yards in each of the last four games (would have been five, but he fell a single yard short against the Cincinnati Bengals in mid–November).

As I say, he needed nearly 200 yards to break the 2,000–yard barrier, and most observers dismissed that as unrealistic. True, he had run for more than 200 yards the week before, but that was against another division rival, the New England Patriots, and Simpson had run for more than 200 yards against the Patriots in the season opener as well — but he hadn't managed to do it against anyone else.

In a steady snowfall, it was clear early that Simpson would set a new single–season rushing record. The next obvious question was whether he could reach the barrier of 2,000 yards against the Jets, who were 4–9.

Simpson was more dramatic on that one, going down to the wire before finally notching his 2,000th yard late in the fourth quarter of the last regular–season game.

The argument can be made that the Jets had nothing for which to play, but the same could be said of the Bills.

And, mind you, I make no excuses for anything Simpson may have done since his playing career ended. Forty years ago, he was the hottest thing in football, virtually the Johnny Football of his day. Whatever role he may or may not have played in the murders of his ex–wife and her friend and the crimes of which he was convicted in Nevada, they were still more than 20 years in the future.

Others have broken that 2,000–yard barrier since then. But Simpson is the only one to achieve it in 14 games. All the others ran for 2,000–plus yards in 16–game seasons.

O.J.'s is an accomplishment that may never be duplicated.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Auburn's Aura of Inevitability



A couple of weeks ago, I was willing to let Auburn's miraculous, last–minute, game–winning touchdown against Georgia fall under the heading of "one of those things."

But then an even more miraculous finish occurred in last Saturday's Iron Bowl against two–time defending national champion Alabama (see attached video).

And I had to conclude that maybe there is a sense of inevitability around the Auburn football team this year.

Currently, Florida State and Ohio State are the picks to advance to the national championship game. But they both have to play conference championship games this weekend, and it possible that one or both could lose.

If either team loses, Auburn could sneak in to the national championship game — but Auburn must face Missouri in the SEC's championship game this weekend. An Auburn loss coupled with a loss by Florida State and/or Ohio State could throw the whole BCS into chaos.

In the past, that would not have bothered me. But the BCS' days are numbered, and we know a playoff system is going to be implemented. No useful purpose could be served by the kind of chaos that would be created by a long–running debate over whether one or both of the teams chosen to play for the national title deserve(s) to be there.

Idle: #4 Alabama, #8 South Carolina, #12 Oregon, #13 Clemson, #14 LSU, #17 UCLA, #21 Wisconsin, #22 Texas A&M, #25 Georgia

Today
  • #19 Louisville at Cincinnati, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Cincinnati has a chance — albeit a slim one — to play in a BCS bowl if the Bearcats can upend the Cardinals and Central Florida loses on Saturday.

    That's a longshot, though.

    It isn't necessarily a longshot historically. These teams have faced each other 44 times and, were it not for a tie back in 1977, they would be even at 22–22. Louisville did beat Cincinnati last year, but Cincinnati won the four games played prior to that.

    The teams are deadlocked in Cincinnati (11–11).

    And it isn't even a longshot statistically. Cincinnati's offense (ranked 18th) is better than Louisville's (32nd).

    But it is defense, they say, that wins championships, and Louisville's is second only to Michigan State's. Cincinnati's is ranked eighth, though.

    It should be a good game, and Cincinnati might win, but I'll still take Louisville.
Friday
  • Mid–American Championship — Bowling Green vs. #16 Northern Illinois at Detroit, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Bowling Green leads the all–time series, but Northern Illinois has had the upper hand in four of the last five meetings.

    The stakes are high for the Huskies in this game, but the Falcons won't be pushovers.

    And the most exciting football of the night might be played when Northern Illinois' fourth–ranked offense takes the field against Bowling Green's seventh–ranked defense.

    Bowling Green's offense (ranked 23rd) might have an easier time of it against Northern Illinois' defense (73rd).

    I'm tempted to pick Bowling Green because of its defense, but instead I will pick Northern Illinois by a field goal.
Saturday
  • ACC Championship — #20 Duke vs. #1 Florida State at Charlotte, N.C., 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams have met 18 times, and Florida State has won them all.

    But this is a golden opportunity for the Blue Devils, one that might never come their way again. Long known for their prowess on the basketball court, the Blue Devils can win an ACC championship in football — and knock off the top–ranked team in the nation at the same time. What better way to cap the Cinderella season they've had in 2013?

    Except it ain't going to happen.

    Florida State has the fourth–best defense in the nation and the seventh–best offense. Duke, on the other hand, is in the Top 60 (barely) in both categories.

    It would be fun to see Duke win the ACC — and I will be pulling for the Blue Devils — but I still pick Florida State by 10.
  • Big Ten Championship — #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Michigan State at Indianapolis, 7:17 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Historically speaking, the odds are against Michigan State.

    The Spartans have lost 70% of all their games with the Buckeyes — and more than 80% of the time they have met since 1991. Ohio State, it is fair to say, owns this series.

    The question is, will they win this time? To do so will require Ohio State's offense (ranked sixth) to take it to Michigan State's top–ranked defense.

    And my guess is that the Spartan defense will have to do some scoring because the 84th–ranked offense cannot be expected to do much against Ohio State (ranked 30th on defense).

    I pick Ohio State to claim a narrow win.


  • SEC Championship — #5 Missouri vs. #3 Auburn at Atlanta, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: It has been nearly 40 years since the first — and, until this Saturday, only — meeting between these schools.

    It was in December 1973 in the Sun Bowl in El Paso. Auburn won on that occasion, 34–17.

    This one looks like a pretty even match. Both teams have Top 20 offenses and defenses — with Auburn holding very narrow advantages in both.

    And, as I said earlier, Auburn has taken on that aura of inevitability. We may be in for another incredible finish. I pick Auburn to win.
  • #18 Oklahoma at #6 Oklahoma State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: They call this the Bedlam Series in Oklahoma, and OU has had the upper hand in it for a long time.

    The Sooners have won nearly 80% of the time they have played the Cowboys. OSU did win the last time the teams met in Stillwater (a notoriously tough place for visitors), but the Sooners won the previous five of six meetings there.

    Statistically, OU has the better defense, and OSU has the better offense. Which will emerge as the more dominant?

    I'm going to go with Oklahoma State.
  • Pac–12 Championship — #7 Stanford at #11 Arizona State, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Stanford owns a two–game winning streak against Arizona State.

    But they haven't met in three years. Consequently, Arizona State hasn't beaten Stanford since 2008 — but that game was played at Arizona State where Saturday's game will be played.

    Stanford hasn't fared too well at Arizona State. The Cardinal did pull off a 17–13 win when they played there in 2010, but that snapped a four–game home winning streak for the Sun Devils.

    But that is what happened in the past. What about the immediate future?

    Stanford has a better defense, but Arizona State is ranked in the Top 25 in both offense and defense. And, in the Pac–12, defense has been rendered virtually irrelevant.

    I'm inclined to think that Arizona State may be better equipped to play a complete game than Stanford, but my instincts tell me Stanford will find a way to prevail.
  • #23 Texas at #9 Baylor, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Texas has won nearly three–fourths of its games with Baylor, but the Bears have played better when the game has been played in Waco, as it is this year.

    In fact, the Bears won the last time they played the Longhorns in Waco, snapping a six–game home losing streak against Texas.

    Baylor also has higher–ranked offensive and defensive units than Texas. The Longhorns might make it interesting for awhile, but Baylor should win at home.
  • #15 UCF at SMU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: In five previous meetings, UCF has beaten SMU four times.

    It is possible that SMU could win this time. The Mustangs have a decent offense (ranked 40th, four spots ahead of UCF), but UCF has, by far, the better defense (#18 to #83).

    I expect UCF to win.
  • Mountain West Championship — Utah State at #24 Fresno State, 9 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Fresno State has seized the lead in this series with eight wins in the last nine meetings. In fact, Utah State hasn't beaten Fresno State since 2006.

    Also in Fresno State's favor is its offensive ranking (second) although Utah State does have the 11th–best defense in the country. The football figures to be a lot less polished when Utah State's 49th–ranked offense takes the field against Fresno's 100th–ranked defense.

    I'll take Fresno State by a touchdown.
Last week: 12–6

Season: 217–43

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

The Championship Picture Comes Into Focus



Most college football teams will be wrapping up with their regular seasons this week. There are some conference championship games next week, and, in some conferences that are not large enough to have championship games, some teams will be playing their final regular–season games on Dec. 7.

But several things are in sharper focus now.

Alabama and Auburn will meet this weekend to decide which team will advance to next week's SEC championship tilt. The winner is likely to face Missouri.

Florida State is already in the ACC's championship game. Duke will be playing for the right to take on the Seminoles next week. A Duke loss opens the door to a number of possibilities involving four other teams.

The Big Ten and the Pac–12 already know who will square off in their title clashes.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan State are set, and, in the Pac–12, Stanford will face Arizona State in a rematch of Stanford's victory in September.

Idle: #7 Oklahoma State, #20 Oklahoma, #21 Louisville

Today
  • Western Michigan at #18 Northern Illinois, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This game features two teams going in opposite directions.

    Western Michigan is a bottom feeder at 1–10. Northern Illinois is headed for some bowl somewhere and wants to finish the regular season unbeaten. The Huskies are 11–0 going into the game.

    Obviously, Northern Illinois comes in as the favorite, but Western Michigan is the historical favorite.

    Western Michigan has won 22 of 37 meetings between the schools, but Northern Illinois has been making gains with four straight victories. Make it five. I pick Northern Illinois.
Friday
  • Oregon State at #12 Oregon, 6 p.m. (Central) on FOX Sports 1: The in–state rivals have been playing each other almost every year since 1916.

    The Ducks enter the game with a five–game winning streak and only one home loss to the Beavers since 1993.

    I presume you know of Oregon's offense. Even in a conference that emphasizes offense the way the Pac–12 does, Oregon stands out — but it has dropped to third in the national rankings. Oregon State is good but not that good (#32).

    If Oregon State had a respectable defense, that might be a saving grace for the Beavers, but they're 81st in the country (Oregon is 36th).

    The Ducks are at home, and they have an offense that should run circles around Oregon State. I pick Oregon.


  • Arkansas at #15 LSU, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Arkansas almost never wins at LSU. The Hogs have only won there once in the last 20 years, and they needed three overtimes to accomplish that.

    With their loss to Mississippi State last weekend, the Razorbacks have lost eight in a row for the first time in school history. In fact, they have only lost eight games in a season two other times, and they have never lost nine games in a season. I suspect that will change this year.

    I've seen nearly every Arkansas game this year, and I've seen some things I like. But it is an ongoing process, and the team that has lost eight in a row is not going to change that in Baton Rouge this week. I expect to see an improvement next year and more improvement the year after that.

    But LSU will win this game.
  • #16 Fresno State at San Jose State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: San Jose State beat Fresno State last year, but history says it won't happen again.

    San Jose State hasn't beaten Fresno State in two consecutive seasons since the 1980s. In fact, San Jose has seldom beaten Fresno at all in the last 25 years.

    And Fresno State has the #2 offense in the land. Granted, it hasn't faced a Top 25 team, but it has been very successful against teams like San Jose State. Actually, San Jose State has been pretty successful on offense as well (#24 in the country).

    There ought to be a lot of scoring in this game. Fresno's defense is 70th in the nation and San Jose's is even worse (#101).

    I pick Fresno State.
  • South Florida at #17 UCF, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have only played four times, but South Florida has won them all.

    A glance at the records will tell you that 2–8 South Florida is not likely to make it five in a row. Other numbers will tell you the same thing.

    Like #120, which is South Florida's national ranking on offense, and #34, which is UCF's offensive ranking.

    On defense, UCF has an edge, but it isn't nearly as pronounced. UCF is 28th and South Florida is 30th.

    UCF should win.
Saturday


  • #1 Alabama at #4 Auburn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: In all of football, is there any better name for a rivalry game than this one? The Iron Bowl.

    It doesn't always live up to its billing, but this year it just might.

    This is the game of the holiday weekend. Hands down.

    It is always the game of the holiday weekend for folks in Alabama. It is sure to stir up memories of Bear Bryant for any football fan in Alabama who is old enough to remember when the Bear prowled the sidelines, but this year the whole country is likely to get swept up in it. The winner will advance to the SEC championship game next week, probably against #5 Missouri (although #10 South Carolina still can get in if Missouri loses to #19 Texas A&M, which is coming off a decisive loss to #15 LSU).

    No one is likely to replace the Bear in the hearts of Crimson Tide fans, whether they are old enough to remember him or not, but Nick Saban surely comes in a strong second, and on Saturday he faces arguably the greatest challenge of his tenure, outside of his grudge matches with LSU.

    Alabama has won four of the last five games with Auburn. The Crimson Tide are patient football players whose third–ranked defense should be up to the challenge posed by Auburn's 12th–rated offense. Alabama, at 40th, isn't bad on offense, either, and should be able to exploit Auburn's 69th–ranked defense.

    I pick Alabama by a touchdown.
  • #2 Florida State at Florida, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This figures to be a showcase for Florida State's Heisman front runner, QB Jameis Winston, who has completed nearly 70% of his passes — assuming sexual assault charges don't keep him off the field.

    The season numbers favor the Seminoles.

    Florida State has the nation's sixth–ranked offense with Winston. Without him, the Seminoles likely would face numerous problems with Florida's seventh–ranked defense.

    The Gators have really struggled on offense (ranked 111th) and should pose little difficulty for Florida State's fifth–ranked defense.

    Recent history favors the Gators.

    Since 2001, Florida has beaten Florida State two–thirds of the time, and the Gators have been nothing short of dominant at home, winning three of the last four in Gainesville.

    But the exception came two years ago, and one suspects that the Seminoles may win this time, too, if for no other reason than the Gators are struggling after losing to lowly Georgia Southern last week. After some speculation during the weekend, the Orlando Sentinel reported that Florida coach Will Muschamp will keep his job, but a staff shakeup is expected after the FSU game.

    Distractions and a disparity in talent will lead to a Florida State victory by a couple of touchdowns.
  • #3 Ohio State at Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: When I was growing up, the Ohio State–Michigan game was always a showdown with national implications.

    Not so much in recent years. Oh, sure, every once in awhile it comes close to what it once was but not often anymore.

    Based on recent results, you would hardly guess that this series is virtually even after 96 meetings — or that, historically speaking, the home team usually wins in this series.

    Ohio State is 10–2 against Michigan since 2001, but the Buckeyes did lose the last time they visited Ann Arbor (after winning four of the previous five they played there). Will recent history repeat itself?

    The numbers for the season don't suggest that, but they do suggest something of a defensive struggle. Ohio State is seventh in offense and might struggle at times against Michigan's 26th–ranked defense. Meanwhile, Michigan's 95th–ranked offense is likely to have a hard time with Ohio State's 12th–ranked defense.

    I pick Ohio State by a touchdown.
  • #19 Texas A&M at #5 Missouri, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Aggies have the fourth–best offense in the country — but their defense (#107) is one of the worst.

    Most of their games have resembled video games with wild offensive shootouts. The Aggies have won most of their games by outscoring the other team, not by stopping the other team.

    Missouri has an offense (16th) that is capable of keeping up with A&M and a defense (#51) that is better equipped for Johnny Manziel than half of the teams the Aggies have faced.

    Historically, Missouri has won five of the last seven games against the Aggies and hasn't lost to them at home since 1999. The Tigers also have more to play for. A victory puts them in next week's SEC championship game.

    I pick Missouri.


  • #6 Clemson at #10 South Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This will be the 106th meeting in a series that dates back to 1902.

    Until the 1960 season, all the games were played in Columbia, S.C., where Saturday's game will be played.

    The marquee matchup in this game has to be when Clemson has the ball. The Tigers are 10th in the nation in offense, but they will face the country's 19th–best defense.

    The matchup isn't quite as appealing when South Carolina has the ball — although it has potential. South Carolina is 25th in offense; Clemson is 27th in defense.

    In fact, this game will feature two of the country's best quarterbacks — Clemson's Tajh Boyd and South Carolina's Connor Shaw.

    I think Boyd and Clemson will come out on top.
  • Notre Dame at #8 Stanford, 6 p.m. (Central) on FOX: The Irish have an 18–9 advantage in the series, and they are 9–4 against Stanford since 2000.

    But three of those Stanford wins came at home where the Cardinal are 11–3 all time against Notre Dame.

    The numbers suggest a game that will be decided by defense, and it is Stanford's defense that will prove decisive. The Cardinal are 22nd in the country and should be able to handle Notre Dame's 65th–ranked offense.

    Notre Dame's defense isn't bad (43rd) but is likely to have more difficulty stopping Stanford's offense (which, at 69th, is mediocre but capable of causing problems for the Irish).

    I'll take Stanford by a field goal.
  • #9 Baylor at TCU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: When I was growing up, this was the battle for last place in the Southwest Conference.

    Well, the SWC doesn't exist anymore, and neither of these schools has been a stranger to the national rankings in recent years.

    But Baylor hasn't won in Fort Worth since 1994, and TCU has won four of its last five games with Baylor.

    Things might be different this time. No matter what happened in Stillwater last weekend, Baylor has the best offense in the country — and TCU has one of the worst.

    The defenses are more or less equal — Baylor is 25th, TCU is 29th.

    I think Baylor will win by at least 10 points.
  • Minnesota at #11 Michigan State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: Michigan State leads this series, largely on the strength of its success at home. The Spartans have won 12 of the last 14 games played in East Lansing.

    And the numbers suggest the Spartans will extend their dominance in a game that should be a defensive showcase.

    Michigan State has the top–ranked defense in the land; Minnesota's offense isn't in the Top 100. Minnesota's defense is good, not great, but should be able to handle Michigan State's 80th–ranked offense.

    I think it will be relatively low scoring, and Michigan State will win.
  • Arizona at #13 Arizona State, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12 Network: Another good in–state rivalry. Arizona leads the series, 38–37–1.

    The last four games have been won by the visiting team, and seven of the last nine games have been decided by a touchdown or less.

    Arizona State has the better offense (23rd in the nation) but not by much. Arizona is ranked 33rd. Arizona State also has the better defense (ranked 19th) — and by a considerably wider margin (Arizona is ranked 61st).

    I'll take Arizona State by a single point.
  • Penn State at #14 Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Compared to most of the games that are played at this point in the season, this is a rather modest series. Only 16 games have been played, but it's been competitive. Nearly half of the games have been decided by 10 points or less.

    On the other hand, when a game between these schools gets out of hand, it can get ugly. Nearly half of the games have been decided by 20 points or more.

    Wisconsin's defense, ranked sixth in the country, and offense, ranked 18th, might be capable of making the game ugly. I pick Wisconsin.
  • Louisiana–Monroe at #21 Louisiana–Lafayette: This series is all knotted at 10–10, and each team is 6–4 in the other team's stadium.

    But this series is more noteworthy for winning streaks. Louisiana–Lafayette has won the last five in a row and will set a record for the longest winning streak in the series with a victory on Saturday.

    Louisiana–Lafayette is better on both sides of the ball. I pick Louisiana–Lafayette.
  • #22 UCLA at #23 Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: UCLA beat Southern Cal last year, but the Bruins haven't beaten the Trojans in consecutive seasons since the 1990s.

    The Bruins reeled off an impressive streak in that decade, winning every game played between 1991 and 1998, but then they went 1–12 against the Trojans after that before winning last year.

    UCLA has a higher–ranked offense (#7 to #71), but Southern Cal has the 14th–best defense in the nation (UCLA is 63rd).

    Personally, I'd like to see UCLA win, but I don't think that will happen. Southern Cal will find a way to win — narrowly.
  • #24 Duke at North Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: If Duke wins this game, the Blue Devils will have 10 wins in football for the first time since ... well, ever.

    It might happen. Duke beat North Carolina last year for the first time since 2003 — which also happens to be the last time Duke won at North Carolina.

    The numbers suggest a close contest. North Carolina (#52) has the edge over Duke (#63) on offense; Duke (#53) has the advantage over North Carolina (#66) on defense.

    I think Duke will take care of business.
Last week: 17–3

Season: 205–37

Sunday, November 24, 2013

And the Teams Played On


About a month later, the Chicago Bears won the NFL championship, but, 50 years ago today,
they observed a moment of silence for John F. Kennedy, then played Pittsburgh as scheduled.


"It was a day of sunshine but immeasurable gloom. There was a stadium filled with nearly 63,000 fans too subdued to generate much excitement for a crucial late–season NFL game where the outcome seemed secondary to the staggering events of the past two days."

Richard Rothschild
Sports Illustrated

Those who are old enough to remember will tell you that everything — or nearly everything — stopped on this weekend 50 years ago.

John F. Kennedy had been assassinated in Dallas two days earlier. Nearly all of the college football games that were scheduled for the next day were postponed.

But not so the NFL games that were scheduled for Sunday.

From the vantage point of 50 years after the fact, it must be said that 1963 was not a year of smooth sailing for NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle. Earlier in 1963, he indefinitely suspended Green Bay's Paul Hornung and Detroit's Alex Karras for gambling on their own teams. They wound up missing the whole season. Other players were fined $2,000 each for betting on a game in which they did not participate.

Then came the Kennedy assassination.

The still–new American Football League postponed its games that weekend to show its respect. The NFL could have done the same, but Rozelle had been in college with Kennedy's press secretary, Pierre Salinger, and the two spoke following the assassination. Rozelle told the Washington Post that Salinger encouraged him to play the games. They agreed that Kennedy loved competition and would have wanted the games to go on.

So the games went on.

No NFL games were televised that weekend. Network TV was providing uninterrupted coverage of events in Dallas and Washington throughout the weekend so none of the NFL games played 50 years ago today were seen by anyone other than those in attendance — which, by the way, was not affected by the assassination.

But, as Richard Rothschild observed in Sports Illustrated, the crowds were subdued that day, and that was understandable.

Rozelle often said he regretted permitting the games to proceed that weekend, but I have often wondered if the NFL games didn't serve a much–needed purpose that weekend.

I recall that, for nearly a week after the September 11 terrorist attacks, no sports events were held — no baseball games (and the pennant races were heating up), no college football games on that Saturday or pro football games that Sunday. When the games finally resumed, there was a real sense that the nation was rising from its grief and embarking on the long journey to return to normalcy.

Of course, the circumstances were different, but the effect was the same. It's like the advice that George Burns (as God) gave to John Denver in the 1977 movie "Oh, God!"

Denver said he felt strange having a conversation in his bathroom with God. Burns told him to shave. He said that, when you're not feeling normal, doing something normal helps you feel normal. Denver started to shave and agreed that he was beginning to feel normal again.

Playing football that weekend may have been like that, at least for those who had tickets to the games. There were those who protested the decision; even some of the players wanted to postpone the games out of respect for the fallen president.

But afterward, the general sensation seems to have been that the games helped people begin their journey back to normalcy. The Washington Redskins, who recorded their third and final win of the season that afternoon, voted to send the game ball to the White House and thanked Rozelle for permitting the games to be played.

It was the football players' way of paying tribute to the president. It was said that they were "playing for President Kennedy."

And, while Rozelle may have regretted the decision, it led to his selection as Sports Illustrated's Sportsman of the Year.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

That's the Way the Football Bounces ... Sometimes


Sometimes a single photo doesn't do justice to what happened.


That caption sums up how I felt when I looked for a picture of Ricardo Louis' game–winning catch for Auburn against Georgia last weekend. I was going to post such a picture here, then I decided my only real choice was to post the video.

You had to see it, the way the defenders tipped the ball and Louis caught it in stride and ran untouched into the end zone. A still photo simply doesn't do justice to the play.

Would it happen the same way every time? No. There's only one of those to a customer, I guess. Just like people get only one summer when they are 8 years old, and they can enjoy ice cream and bottle rockets and all the simple pleasures of childhood without being brought down by the increasing concerns of maturing years. It's not the kind of thing that can be duplicated.

You just never know, when you sit down to watch a football game, if a memorable moment like that will happen. It's always possible.

And my guess is that a moment like that could happen in a few of the games on this weekend's schedule.

Idle: #6 Auburn

Today

  • #20 Northern Illinois at Toledo, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Toledo lost its first two games (to Florida and Missouri) and is 7–1 since.

    The Rockets still have a chance to win the division — and probably will if they beat 10–0 Northern Illinois. The only remaining obstacle would be 4–7 Akron next week.

    Toledo leads the all–time series and wins the majority of the time on either campus but has been particularly successful at home, winning 85% of the time.

    In recent years, though, Northern Illinois seems to have solved the Toledo riddle, going 2–2 there in the last four visits. And there have been some unbelievable scores of late. NIU won the last time it came to Toledo as the teams combined for 123 points.

    And that was in regulation.

    Northern Illinois might put a lot of points on the board again this time. The Huskies' offense is ranked fourth in the nation. Toledo's offense is good, too, but probably not good enough to win a shootout.

    Neither defense has been overly impressive, and I have to think offense will make the difference. I pick Northern Illinois by a touchdown.
Thursday
  • Rutgers at #17 UCF, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Auburn's Ricardo Louis wasn't the only one who made a spectacular catch last weekend. He just got more attention.

    UCF's J.J. Worton made a terrific one–handed touchdown grab against Temple.

    Worton might be able to do something similar against Rutgers' 92nd–ranked defense. Blake Bortles is the seventh–best QB in the country, but none of UCF's receivers are among the leaders in receptions or yards per game. Clearly, Bortles spreads the ball around. But be advised what Worton can do when Bortles throws the ball to him.

    And he has the chance to do it tomorrow night on the ESPN stage.

    I pick UCF by a touchdown.
Saturday
  • Chattanooga at #1 Alabama: Why waste time analyzing this one?

    The only way the Crimson Tide will lose this is if they get caught looking ahead to Auburn next week. I don't think that will happen. Give me Alabama.
  • Idaho at #2 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: See the above entry on Chattanooga vs. Alabama.

    Substitute Florida State for Alabama (and Florida for Auburn) — and you have my prediction on this one as well.
  • #3 Baylor at #11 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Until last year, Baylor had lost 15 of its last 16 meetings with Oklahoma State — and you have to go back to 1942 to find Baylor's last win over OSU in the state of Oklahoma.

    Even RGIII didn't beat Oklahoma State.

    Of course, he didn't have the nation's top–ranked offense (the Bears are averaging more than 100 yards per game more than thesecond–ranked offense). OSU has struggled a bit on offense this year (ranked #54).

    I don't remember what kind of defense Baylor had a couple of years ago, but it is pretty good this year (11th in the country). OSU's defense is ranked higher than its offense — but not by a whole lot (#40).

    Common sense says the Bears should win it, but I sense an upset in the making. I'll pick Oklahoma State.
  • Indiana at #4 Ohio State: Ohio State has beaten Indiana 18 straight times and hasn't lost at home to the Hoosiers since October of 1987.

    Indiana does have a decent offense — ranked 16th in the nation — but Ohio State's is better (ranked #6). But the Hoosiers have the worst defense in the country.

    Ohio State should win by a wide margin.
  • #5 Oregon at Arizona: Oregon leads the all–time series largely because of what has happened since 1999. Oregon is 12–2 against Arizona in that time.

    We all know how good Oregon's offense is — second only to Baylor in the national rankings. The Ducks are also 25th in defense. Arizona has a competitive offense, but its defense should be no match for the Ducks.

    I expect a victory margin in double digits for Oregon.
  • Citadel at #7 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Hey, I've seen Clemson play a few times this season, and the Tigers are good — ninth–best offense with Tajh Boyd at the controls.

    It's hard to imagine the Citadel competing with that — and I can't imagine it. I expect Clemson to win.
  • #8 Missouri at #24 Ole Miss, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the seventh–ever meeting between these teams, the first as conference rivals and possibly a preview of coming SEC championship game attractions.

    Not this year, of course. This year, either Alabama or Auburn will represent the West, but Missouri ought to be there as the representative of the East.

    Mizzou has won the last four games it has played with Ole Miss and brings the 17th–best offense to the game, but Ole Miss' offense actually is rated 15th.

    And Ole Miss' defense is ranked 42nd while Missouri is ranked 52nd.

    In other words, it's a pretty even match statistically.

    When Ole Miss has the ball, the Rebels' 19th–ranked passing game could be a real problem for Missouri's 112th–ranked pass defense. Likewise, but to a lesser extent, Missouri's 18th–ranked ground game for Ole Miss' run defense.

    There could be a lot of scoring. After losses to #1 Alabama, #9 Texas A&M and #6 Auburn, the Rebels really crave a win over a Top 10 team.

    Missouri, on the other hand, could be caught looking ahead to the Tigers' regular–season finale with Texas A&M next week. But the Tigers need to be careful about that. A loss in either game would hand the SEC East crown to #12 South Carolina, a double–overtime winner over Missouri last month.

    I expect Ole Miss to put up a great fight, but I think Missouri has more to lose and won't be caught napping.

    Missouri by a field goal.
  • #9 Texas A&M at #18 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is probably the game of the week.

    Most people are assuming that Johnny Manziel will enter the pros after this season is over. I think that is likely, regardless of whether A&M sweeps its last two regular–season games, loses both or splits them (#8 Missouri is waiting next week).

    I also think Manziel will jump to the NFL whether he wins another Heisman or not. His passing numbers have been better this year than they were last year. His rushing numbers are down, but he has already demonstrated his Brett Favre–like scrambling — and my guess is that, in today's NFL, the focus is on whether a quarterback can pass accurately.

    Manziel's completion percentage is 73.0% (up from 68.0% last year), his passing yardage is up more than 45 yards per game, and he's averaging three TD passes per outing (compared to about two last year). Unless he gets hurt in the last two regular–season games or the January bowl in which he is virtually certain to play, he may never be more bankable than he is right now.

    He already has a Heisman.

    I think this will be a great game with a lot of points scored. That's the way it is in Aggie games this year.

    But when the dust settles, I pick Texas A&M by a field goal.
  • California at #10 Stanford: This will be the 93rd meeting between these two Bay Area rivals.

    Stanford has won the last three, but California won seven of the previous eight. That's what this series has been like, one team dominates for several years, then it is the other team's turn.

    I think the numbers suggest that Stanford's streak will continue for another year. The Cardinal's defense is ranked in the Top 20 and should be able to stop Cal.

    I choose Stanford.
  • Coastal Carolina at #12 South Carolina: This one should be no problem for South Carolina.

    I don't know if these schools have ever played before, but I can't imagine the Gamecocks being intimidated by Coastal Carolina after running the SEC gauntlet.

    South Carolina should win by a wide margin.
  • #13 Michigan State at Northwestern: It took some trickery by Michigan State last week, but the Spartans defeated Nebraska and seized control their destiny in the Big Ten.

    Compared to all–time outcomes, Northwestern has been a little more successful against Michigan State since 2002. In that time, Northwestern has won one–third of the time — the Wildcats even won last year. But Michigan State hasn't lost at Northwestern since 2001.

    Michigan State has the best defense in the nation and should stop Northwestern's offense with ease.

    I pick Michigan State by a field goal.
  • #19 Arizona State at #14 UCLA: This series has been a little more lopsided since 2000 than it has been all time. Since 2000, UCLA is 8–4 against Arizona State, which is a little better than UCLA's all–time winning percentage against ASU (.638).

    Arizona State struggles on the road in this series — with only one road win against UCLA in the 21st century.

    The Sun Devils have the better offense, though, and a substantially better defense. This one could be a lot more exciting than you might think.

    Thanks to the home field advantage, I will go with UCLA.
  • New Mexico at #15 Fresno State, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPNews: Fresno State has won seven of its last eight games with New Mexico, but that one exception came at Fresno State in 1994.

    Neither defense has been terribly productive this year, giving the edge to the better offense. That would be Fresno State, ranked fifth nationally.

    I have to go with Fresno State.
  • #16 Wisconsin at Minnesota, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Wisconsin has a nine–game winning streak in the series, but the Gophers' last win over Wisconsin came at Minnesota in 2003.

    Is that significant? Probably not. Wisconsin is in the Top 12 in both offense and defense. Minnesota's defense is average at best, and its offense is worse than mediocre.

    I pick Wisconsin.
  • Memphis at #21 Louisville: These teams have been playing each other almost every year since their first meeting back in 1961.

    Louisville has the advantage both at home and on the road. The Cardinals are 12–2 against Memphis since 1992 — but Memphis' most recent victory in the series came at Louisville. Granted, that was in 2003, but Memphis' football team needs all the encouragement it can get.

    I don't think Memphis will be too encouraged by the outcome of this game. I pick Louisville.
  • #22 Oklahoma at Kansas State, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: If Bob Stoops can beat the Wildcats, he will have the record for most coaching wins with the Sooners all to himself.

    The Sooners' victory over Iowa State last week pulled Stoops even with Barry Switzer at 157 wins each.

    The odds are in his favor. Stoops is 8–2 against Kansas State, but one of those losses came in Norman last year.

    Both offenses have struggled at times this year, and I think the game will come down to defense. OU's defense is ranked 13th in the country. K–State's defense is good, just not as good.

    I pick Oklahoma.
  • #23 Southern Cal at Colorado: These teams have played seven times since 1927, and Southern Cal has won all seven.

    It's really hard to imagine USC stumbling on this one, either. Colorado (4–6) is 86th in offense — at 76th, USC isn't much better — and 110th in defense (USC is 17th).

    There was a time when this would have been an exciting matchup. Not so much now. I expect Southern Cal to win easily.
  • #25 Duke at Wake Forest, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This series dates back to 1922, but seldom has much been riding on the outcome.

    Typically, if a Duke–Wake Forest game has meant anything, it has been in basketball. Duke's football team hasn't had a winning season since 1994. Wake Forest had some successful campaigns from 2006–2008, but, for the most part, the Demon Deacons have been right there with the Blue Devils, enduring football season to get to basketball season.

    But, after beating Miami for the first time since 1976, Duke is in the driver's seat for a berth against Florida State in the ACC championship game. Basketball will have to wait awhile longer.

    For a long time, Wake Forest owned Duke in football. Until last year, in fact. Wake Forest had won 12 in a row against Duke until the Blue Devils beat the Demon Deacons in September 2012.

    Now it looks as if Duke will have two straight wins in this series for the first time since 1998–1999. Well, that's what I expect to happen.
Last week: 17–2

Season: 188–34

Sunday, November 17, 2013

It Ain't Over Until It's Over



Yogi Berra was credited with saying "It ain't over until it's over."

Yogi played — and then managed — in major league baseball, but the saying is appropriate for football, too.

It certainly was appropriate 45 years ago today.

On this day in 1968, the New York Jets and the Oakland Raiders were playing a football game. Joe Namath and the Jets went on to play in — and win — the Super Bowl in January. And, late in the game that was played 45 years ago today, it sure looked like the Jets were going to beat the Raiders.

Except that they didn't.

It had been a back–and–forth affair in Oakland that day, but, with 1:05 remaining, the Jets took a three–point lead. Worried NBC executives cut away from the game, and the network began its regularly scheduled broadcast of a made–for–TV movie that was based on the children's book "Heidi."

What happened next changed the relationship between professional football and television.

The Raiders scored not one but two improbable touchdowns and won the game, 43–32. The western half of the United States saw the full game; the eastern half was watching a little girl on a Swiss mountain and had no idea the Raiders had won.

"Television missed one of football's most exciting and exhausting minutes of emotion," wrote Bob Valli in the Oakland Tribune. "In that minute, Oakland fans saw despair turn to delirium."

Football fans were enraged when they learned what they missed. Viewers who tuned in for the movie were enraged when NBC ran the score on the screen in the middle of one of the movie's most dramatic moments. "Short of pre–empting Heidi for a skin flick," wrote sportswriter Jack Clary, "NBC could not have managed to alienate more viewers that evening."

As a result, television changed its football broadcast policy.

Future contracts would include explicit language pledging that all games would be shown to their completion. If a game ran long, regularly scheduled programming would be delayed.

NBC implemented that policy immediately. It is standard procedure with all commercial networks today.

To its credit, NBC poked fun at itself over the incident. Three weeks later, when the network was scheduled to show "Pinocchio" on a Sunday night, NBC's promotional advertising showed Pinocchio assuring football fans that he would rather cut off his nose than "have them cut off" the game before it was over.

And a week after that, when a game ran late, NBC announced that the regularly scheduled program, an episode of The New Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, would be delayed.


Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Spotlight Shines on 'Bama, Florida State



USA Today apparently was ready to punch Alabama's ticket to a third straight BCS championship game after the Crimson Tide rolled over LSU last Saturday, 38–17, but LSU was only the first of three groups of Tigers that Alabama must overcome to go to Pasadena.

A trip to Auburn is scheduled for Nov. 30, then the SEC championship game, most likely against Missouri, follows on Dec. 7. Those will be significant challenges. Auburn is one of only two teams (Alabama is the other) to defeat Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M so far this season.

In spite of those hurdles that Alabama still must clear on the road to Pasadena, though, Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports still wonders, in effect, "What do you think of me now?"

Ask me that question in about three weeks.

The same could be said of Florida State, I suppose. The Sporting News asserts that "[a]ll Alabama and Florida State have to do is win out, and both are in Pasadena playing for it all," and, at this point, that is hard to dispute.

That sounds like an easier assignment for the Seminoles, no matter which team from the ACC's Atlantic Division awaits them in the conference championship game.

But why bother with formalities? Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated is ready to proclaim Florida State the best team in the country.

Idle: #9 Missouri, #10 Texas A&M, #16 Fresno State, #18 LSU

Today
  • Ball State at #20 Northern Illinois, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Fans of offensive football should enjoy this midweek primetime battle. Northern Illinois' offense is ranked fifth in the nation, and Ball State's is 24th.

    Ball State leads the all–time series, but Northern Illinois has won four in a row and 11 of the last 14. Neither defense has been very impressive so it stands to reason that offense will decide the outcome.

    Ball State's Keith Wenning and Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch are completing more than 62% of their passes, and Lynch is rushing for more than 100 yards a game.

    I expect this to be a close and relatively high–scoring game. I pick Northern Illinois.
Thursday
  • Georgia Tech at #8 Clemson, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This will be the 77th meeting of these two schools, and Georgia Tech leads the all–time series by better than 2–to–1.

    But Georgia Tech has been far more successful at home than on the road — and that is just one more thing to worry about for the Yellow Jackets, who also must contend with the 11th–best offense and the 32nd–best defense in the nation.

    I think Clemson will win by a touchdown.
Friday
  • Washington at #13 UCLA, 8 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This game might be more difficult than UCLA thinks.

    Washington started the season 4–0 but proceeded to lose three straight before righting the ship in the Huskies' last two games. A win over the Bruins would make a nine–win season (their third in the last 20 years) a realistic possibility.

    UCLA has won 11 of the last 14 games with Washington and hasn't lost to the Huskies at home since 1995.

    But this could be quite a challenge for the Bruins.

    The Huskies' offense is 10th in the nation (UCLA's is 31st). Washington's Keith Price has completed more than 65% of his passes, and Bishop Sankey is averaging 145 yards on the ground.

    And although the defenses are mediocre at best, Washington's is ranked higher than UCLA's.

    I'll take UCLA at home — but I think it will be close.
Saturday
  • #1 Alabama at Mississippi State, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: There aren't many series that have been as lopsided as this one. Alabama and Mississippi State have played 95 times, and Alabama has won 75.

    In all those years, Mississippi State has rarely won consecutive games against Alabama. The Crimson Tide, on the other hand, enjoys winning streaks against the Bulldogs. Alabama's current streak of five in a row pales when compared to the period 1958–1995, when Alabama lost to Mississippi State only once.

    The teams haven't played in Starkville nearly as often as they have played in Tuscaloosa, but Alabama has won four of the last five meetings there.

    In spite of how the season has gone for the Bulldogs, there was at least reason to hope they might win. But with QB Dak Prescott's gameday status uncertain, it looks like the Bulldogs' chances are slim and none.

    Of course, I am writing this several days before Mississippi State and Alabama face off so it is possible that Prescott will be in the lineup by kickoff on Saturday night. But, even if he is, I pick Alabama.


  • Syracuse at #2 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: If, somehow, you have missed seeing Florida State play this season, do yourself a favor and watch this game. If you wait until the Seminoles take on the Crimson Tide in the national championship game, you might miss out on seeing the possible Heisman winner in action before he receives the Heisman.

    I'm speaking of Florida State QB Jameis Winston, the front runner for the Heisman, according to NBC Sports. He's second in the nation in passing with a 69% completion percentage and nearly four times as many TD passes as interceptions.

    Syracuse won the first time these teams met (in 1966) but hasn't beaten Florida State since. I'm not inclined to think Syracuse will win this time, either. Florida State's offense is ninth in the country, and the defense (ranked fourth) is even better.

    They have only played in Tallahassee twice, but the Seminoles won both. I pick Florida State to win again.
  • #3 Ohio State at Illinois, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: The Buckeyes have the sixth–best offense and the 10th–best defense in the nation. It is hard to see how Illinois (56th in offense, 114th in defense) will be able to keep up.

    This is an old rivalry that will stop being an annual event when the Big Ten re–divides into two divisions next year to accommodate the additions of Rutgers and Maryland, and Ohio State and Illinois are placed in different divisions. But this year, as usual, the winner will receive a wooden turtle — named Illibuck — symbolic of victory in the series.

    (Originally, the winner received a live turtle but, ever since the original turtle died, wooden turtles, with the scores of previous games painted on their backs, have been awarded instead. A total of 10 wooden turtles have been carved; I suppose a new one is carved when there is no more room for scores on the current one's back. It is the second–oldest rival trophy in the Big Ten.)

    Ohio State has won eight of the last nine meetings with Illinois, and the Buckeyes haven't lost at Illinois since 1991.

    I expect Ohio State to win again.
  • Texas Tech vs. #4 Baylor at Arlington, Texas, 6 p.m. (Central) on FOX: The last four games in this series have been played in Dallas or Arlington. The teams are returning to Arlington this year.

    The Red Raiders might want to go back to the home–and–home arrangement they had with the Bears before. Until Baylor beat Tech in 2011, Tech had won the last 15. But Baylor now has won two in a row against Tech.

    And Baylor's top–ranked offense is going to be hard for Tech's 62nd–ranked defense to stop this time around. My guess is the Red Raiders won't be able to stop it.

    Of course, Texas Tech poses its own challenge for Baylor. Tech's offense is ranked seventh in the land, but Baylor's ninth–ranked defense looks like it will be up to the challenge.

    I pick Baylor to win a high–scoring contest.
  • #5 Stanford at Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Stanford has won four in a row against Southern Cal, but the numbers kind of seem to favor the Trojans this time, even though Stanford is ranked fifth in the nation.

    Southern Cal's offense and defense are ranked higher than Stanford's — although not by much in both categories. The teams appear to be evenly matched; in fact, it isn't inconceivable that they could meet in a rematch in the Pac–12 championship game, but the reality is that the loser is going to face nearly impossible odds.

    This is a game that is more noteworthy for the defenses, but there are some offensive stars to keep your eyes on — like Stanford QB Kevin Hogan, who has completed more than 60% of his passes, and Tyler Gaffney, who is averaging 115 yards on the ground. Southern Cal QB Cody Kessler has completed nearly 65% of his passes.

    I think Stanford will win by a touchdown.
  • Utah at #6 Oregon, 3 p.m. (Central) on FS1: After last week's loss to Stanford, it is hard to imagine Oregon losing a second straight time.

    The Ducks have the second–best offense in the land, and their quarterback, Marcus Mariota, has completed more than 63% of his passes while throwing zero interceptions. Utah's pass defense has been dismal.

    Defense usually takes a back seat in the Pac–12, but Oregon's (29th) isn't bad; in fact, it should be more than good enough to handle Utah's 75th–ranked offense.

    These teams have met sporadically over the years. That is likely to change now that they are conference rivals.

    Oregon has won four of the last five meetings and hasn't lost at home to Utah since 1994.

    I expect Oregon to extend its home winning streak.
  • #25 Georgia at #7 Auburn, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: This is the oldest rivalry in the Deep South, and it is all knotted up at 54–54–8.

    This is bound to be the game of the week in the SEC, but I doubt if anyone would have predicted that before the season began.

    Nevertheless, there will be a lot on the line. The loser will no longer be in the hunt for a berth in the SEC championship game.

    Both teams have Top 25 offenses. Georgia's offense is led by QB Aaron Murray, and Tre Mason routinely gains 100–plus yards on the ground for Auburn.

    Georgia has beaten Auburn in six of the last seven meetings. The exception was 2010, when Auburn won the national championship. Clearly, the once–beaten Tigers hope history repeats itself this year, but we already know that Auburn can't duplicate the undefeated 2010 campaign (thanks to LSU's Sept. 21 win over Auburn).

    However, it remains to be seen whether Auburn (9–1) can qualify for the national championship game by sweeping Georgia and Alabama.

    I think Auburn will take care of the first part of that equation by narrowly beating Georgia.
  • Florida at #11 South Carolina, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: South Carolina has a decisive edge on offense. Florida has a narrow advantage on defense.

    Florida has won 19 of the last 22 games between these schools, but the Gamecocks won the last time they met in Columbia.

    I expect South Carolina to win.


  • #12 Oklahoma State at #23 Texas, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FOX: Sometimes I almost feel sorry for Mack Brown. Sitting in that Texas hot seat, it is almost inevitable that, because of all the historic expectations, the Longhorns have to struggle just to get into the Top 25, only to get bounced at the first opportunity.

    But that is the sort of burden that comes with almost every high–profile college football coaching job.

    Texas has spent more time out of the Top 25 than in it this season, and the numbers for the OSU game are mixed. In this game, Texas has a narrow edge in offense while Oklahoma State has a more substantial advantage on defense.

    Texas has won 18 of the last 21 meetings in this series, but Oklahoma State won the last two times they played in Austin.

    If you accept the premise that the offenses virtually cancel each other out, then it comes down to defense, which I think it will. And, on that basis, I pick Oklahoma State.
  • #14 Michigan State at Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC or ESPN2: Nebraska has won all of the previous games between these schools. But I think history may be about to change, as Michael J. Fox said in "Back to the Future."

    There's plenty of motivation. "Beat Nebraska," writes the Associated Press, "and a spot in the Big Ten championship game is all but assured."

    Michigan State has the top–ranked defense in the nation, which offsets its mediocre offense. Nebraska's 42nd–ranked offense may have some success but not much.

    Michigan State's offense may not fare too well against Nebraska's defense, either.

    I expect a low–scoring game, and that gives the edge to Michigan State.
  • #15 UCF at Temple, 11 a.m. (Central) on 6ABC, ESPN Regional: Temple has one of the absolute worst defenses in the country, and the offense isn't much better.

    UCF, on the other hand, has the 10th–best QB in the country (Blake Bortles).

    This is the first meeting between these schools. I think it will be an easy win for UCF.
  • Indiana at #17 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: This series belongs to Wisconsin.

    The Badgers have won eight in a row against the Hoosiers, and they haven't lost to Indiana at home since 2001.

    But don't be so quick to award the victory to Wisconsin. Indiana has the eighth–ranked offense in the nation. The Hoosiers are led by QB Nate Sudfeld, who has completed nearly 62% of his passes, and Tevin Coleman, who chips in more than 106 yards on the ground per game.

    Offensive standouts for Wisconsin include QB Joel Stave, who has completed more than 64% of his passes, and Melvin Gordon, who runs for an average of nearly 130 yards per game.

    I pick Wisconsin by a touchdown.
  • Houston at #19 Louisville, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Louisville is second only to Michigan State in defense, and I've been hearing the adage "Defense wins championship" all my life.

    Of course, Louisville has a pretty good offense, too — #21 in the country, led by Teddy Bridgewater (who has completed more than 70% of his passes). Houston's defense is ranked 88th overall, and it is even worse against the pass. Ouch.

    The all–time series is tied, 7–7, and each team is 4–3 at home.

    But this is the first time they have met in nearly a decade.

    My guess is Louisville will win.
  • Oregon State at #21 Arizona State, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: Offense rules in the Pac–12, and Oregon and Washington are the class of the league, but Oregon State (#25) and Arizona State (#17) are not far behind.

    Defense is the redheaded stepchild in the Pac–12, but ASU has the 14th–best defense in the country, and I expect that to be the difference.

    This will be the 40th meeting between these schools, and (historically, at least) Arizona State holds the edge.

    But recent history favors Oregon State with a 5–2 record against the Sun Devils since 2006 (between 1972 and 2005, the Beavers only beat the Sun Devils twice).

    As I say, though, ASU has one of the best defenses in the country, and I anticipate an Arizona State victory.
  • Iowa State at #22 Oklahoma, 11 a.m. (Central) on FS1: Oklahoma hasn't lost to Iowa State since 1990. That also happens to be the last time Iowa State won in Norman.

    Neither streak appears to be in jeopardy. At least 100 other football programs are better than Iowa State in both offense and defense. The Oklahoma offense hasn't been very strong this year, but its defense is ranked 13th in the nation and seems more than up to the task of stopping Iowa State.

    I pick Oklahoma by 10 points.
  • #24 Miami (Fla.) at Duke, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Duke, of course, has a huge reputation in basketball, but it has long been considered a lightweight in football. That might be about to change. The Blue Devils are 7–2, and a win over Miami would go a long way toward landing Duke in a Top 25 in football. Imagine that.

    Miami's loss to Virginia Tech put Duke squarely in the race for the Coastal Division title and the accompanying berth in the ACC championship game, most likely against Florida State.

    If Duke beats Miami, the Blue Devils will have eight wins in a season for the first time since 1994. If Duke could win two of its last three, the Blue Devils would have a nine–win season for the first time since 1941. And if the Blue Devils could win out, they would have 10 wins in a season for the first time ever — and they might be in the ACC title game.

    But, once the flight of fancy is over, let's get back to earth.

    These teams have played each other 10 times. Their first meeting was in 1976, and Duke won it. Miami has won the last nine.

    I think Miami will win again — by a field goal.
Last week: 14–3

Season: 171–32