Monday, December 31, 2012

A Tragic New Year's Eve



Like most American boys, I was a baseball fan.

I'm not as much of a baseball fan today as I was then, but there was a time in my life when I collected baseball cards and I knew the names of the starting lineups of every major league club.

That was in the days before cable TV and the internet, before you could watch a baseball game every night of the week.

There was a "game of the week" televised every Saturday afternoon, and the all–star game was always an excuse for a special baseball broadcast. But, most of the time, I had to try to find a baseball broadcast on the radio if I wanted the experience of a major league game on a summer night.

Even though I couldn't watch much major league baseball when I was a child, I still felt fortunate to be living at a time when so many truly gifted players were playing — guys like Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Lou Brock, Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, etc.

Where I grew up, the St. Louis Cardinals were the primary team of interest. There were fewer teams in those days, and, although I didn't live in Missouri, I did live close enough to get there in a day — and my family did go to St. Louis to see the Cardinals play a few times.

One of the Cardinals' division rivals when I was growing up was Pittsburgh, and the Pirates had one of my favorite ball players of all time — Roberto Clemente — so I always made a special effort to pick up the Cardinals broadcast when St. Louis played Pittsburgh.

I almost never got to see Clemente play. Once a year, I could usually count on seeing him in the all–star game — he made 15 all–star appearances in his career — and he played in two World Series, winning the MVP in the 1971 Fall Classic.

But I have few memories of seeing him play in the game of the week. That's a shame because he really was a great player — and a truly generous man.

That's what led to his death on this night 40 years ago.

While most of his teammates were celebrating the dawn of a new year, Clemente was trying to make sure that aid for earthquake victims in Nicaragua reached the people who needed it. Three previous flights carrying emergency relief aid had been diverted by corrupt government officials and had never reached their intended destination.

So Clemente decided to accompany the fourth shipment, apparently hoping that his status as a major–league baseball star would guarantee that the aid would get to the survivors. He chartered an airplane for a New Year's Eve flight.

The plane, however, had a history of mechanical problems and was overloaded by about 4,000 pounds. It crashed off the coast of Puerto Rico shortly after takeoff. A two–week search of the Atlantic Ocean failed to produce a body.

I remember hearing the reports that his plane had gone down. I was spending New Year's Eve at a friend's house, and his parents had told us we could stay up to watch the inaugural broadcast of Dick Clark's "New Year's Rockin' Eve," which became an annual event — and, presumably, will remain so even though Clark died earlier this year.

As the name would imply, there were many musical guests slated to appear on the show, one of which was Three Dog Night. My friend and I were big fans of Three Dog Night in those days, and, if Clemente's plane had not gone down a few hours earlier, that would have drawn all our attention that night.

But we were both baseball fans, and we both liked Clemente. I remember the two of us sitting in front of the TV, all thoughts of Three Dog Night and New Year's Eve driven from our minds as we hoped against hope that Clemente might be found alive.

But his body was never recovered.

We went ahead and watched Dick Clark's special that night, but the excitement was gone. I remember falling asleep thinking not of the new year that had dawned but of the lives — especially Clemente's — that had been lost.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Christmas Eve



When I was a child, there was a certain sameness to every Christmas and every Christmas Eve.

We lived about 330 miles from Dallas, where my parents grew up and where my grandparents lived until they died. My father was a college professor so, as soon as his school dismissed for the holidays and my brother and I were dismissed from our schools for the holidays, the family would pack up the car and hit the road for Dallas.

Both of my grandfathers died before I reached the age of 10, but we always stayed with my mother's mother when we were in town and we always visited my father's mother.

In addition to the family obligations, Christmas in Dallas always involved visiting all my parents' friends who were still in the area — and there were quite a few. Sometimes we planned group outings; if a good movie was showing, we might assemble for lunch and a matinee. If a Pink Panther movie was showing, seeing it was a sure thing.

The friends frequently gathered on Christmas Eve to drink wine and nibble on snacks. When I got a little older, I was allowed to join the festivity. I wasn't allowed to drink the wine until I was old enough to do so legally, but I drank soft drinks and enjoyed the snacks.

Well, that was how the holidays typically played out when I was growing up.

But I remember one special Christmas Eve — 40 years ago today — that I spent watching football with my father's mother.

Since I was a child, I have been a Green Bay Packers fan, and I guess I became a fan of the Packers in much the same way that most others do. They were the top team when I was little and I saw football on TV for the first time.

My family didn't have a TV until after the Vince Lombardi era, but our neighbors did, and that was where I saw football for the first time and became a Packers fan.

The Packers were terrible when I began following them and calling them my favorite team, but things changed — or seemed to — 40 years ago when Green Bay took the NFC Central crown from the Minnesota Vikings, who usually won that division in those years.

And on this day 40 years ago, the Packers played the Washington Redskins in the playoffs.

I remember little about that day except that I was excited about the Packers being in the playoffs. My mother and father and brother wanted to do some last–minute Christmas shopping, but I wanted to watch the football game. So my grandmother offered to stay with me that afternoon and watch the game while the rest of the family went shopping.

The Packers were never really in that game — the Redskins went on to lose to the undefeated Miami Dolphins in the Super Bowl — but I remember sharing the experience of watching that game with my grandmother.

There weren't many times in my life when I got to share something with her like that, and she died less than four years later. It is a cherished memory for me now — even though I can't remember anything we said that afternoon. I just remember that she cheered when something good happened for the Packers, even though not much did.

Grandmother was a Cowboys fan — and her Cowboys went on to lose to the Redskins the next week — but she cheered for the Packers that day just because they were my favorite team.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

The Immaculate Reception



When I was growing up, the Pittsburgh Steelers were the bottom feeders of the NFL.

But all that changed rather suddenly in 1972.

The Steelers won their division and appeared in a postseason game for the first time in a quarter of a century.

That game was against the Oakland Raiders, at the time the most successful team in the NFL, 40 years ago today, and it seemed that the Steelers, who had been shut out in their only previous postseason appearance, would have to wait at least another year for their first postseason victory.

Neither team managed a score in the first half. The Steelers got two Roy Gerela field goals in the second half before the Raiders took a 7–6 lead on Kenny Stabler's 30–yard touchdown run and George Blanda's extra point late in the game.

Then the most wildly, improbable thing happened.

With time running out, Terry Bradshaw faced a fourth down 60 yards from Oakland's end zone. He scrambled around and flung a pass in the direction of John Fuqua. The pass ricocheted off defender Jack Tatum into the hands of rookie Franco Harris, who scooped it out of the air only inches from the ground and ran down the sidelines for the game–winning score.

Almost immediately, it was dubbed the Immaculate Reception.

And, almost immediately, critics claimed the Raiders had been robbed. It was, one wag suggested, the Immaculate Deception.

Well, yesterday, I watched programming on the NFL Network about the Immaculate Reception. I watched the replays that have been enhanced as much as possible by the technological advances of the last four decades.

And I have concluded that it was a legitimately completed pass.

It was, to be sure, a bizarre play, perhaps the most bizarre play I have seen in a lifetime of watching football.

It has been a source of debate for 40 years, and it probably will be a source of debate for another 40 years.

There will always be folks on either side of the issue who will never be persuaded that the other side might be right.

And that is one of the things that makes sports so special. You never know when an unforgettable moment is about to occur.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

The Bowl Edition of My Top 25 Picks


Utah State's Chuckie Keeton can take a step
toward joining the school's all–time greats

in today's Idaho Potato Bowl against Toledo.



Earlier this fall, I speculated about the possibility that Notre Dame and Alabama would meet in the national championship game.

That possibility has gone far beyond speculation. It is a reality now. The Irish and the Crimson Tide will meet in Miami on Jan. 7.

Obviously, they are two storied programs. Between them, they have shared or won outright 25 national championships — and, in a few weeks, they can add another one to the list, no matter who wins the game.

That game has a lot for college football fans to be excited about, but most of the rest of the bowl schedule isn't so appealing.

There are about three dozen bowls now, which means that there are roughly 70 bowl slots available. Yet only eight bowls match teams from the Top 25. Eight other members of the Top 25 are playing unranked — albeit bowl eligible — foes.

When I was growing up, there were far fewer bowls. Even ranked teams — and the rankings in those days only covered the Top 20 — didn't get to play in one.

But with so many slots available, it is just wrong for any ranked team to have to play an unranked one.

This season, third–ranked Ohio State is banned from postseason participation, so that's a valid excuse, but there are so many bowls these days. With all those bowls, it seems to me there is no excuse for a ranked team having to play an unranked one.

Oh, well, that's my rant for today. Here is the bowl lineup that features the ranked teams.

Idle: #3 Ohio State

Today
  • Idaho Potato Bowl: Toledo vs. #18 Utah State at 3:30 p.m. (Central) in Boise, Idaho on ESPN: Of all the bowls that have at least one Top 25 team involved, this one has the distinction of being ranked as the least interesting by Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel.

    Oh, Mandel ranks about a dozen bowls as being less interesting than today's Idaho Potato Bowl, but it is the least interesting of the bowls that have Top 25 teams playing in them.

    And that should tell you something. The numbers tell you something, too.

    Both teams rank in the Top 30 nationally in offense. For all intents and purposes, they are about even in that regard. But Utah State is, far and away, the better defensive team.

    So I pick Utah State to win.
December 22
  • Las Vegas Bowl: Washington vs. #20 Boise State at 2:30 p.m. (Central) in Las Vegas on ESPN: These teams actually met once before — in a regular–season clash in 2007.

    Washington won that one, 24–10 (one of only four games the Huskies won that year and one of only three the Broncos lost).

    Not too long ago, offense ruled in Boise, but the star of this game should be Boise State's defense, the ninth best in the land. It should have no trouble with Washington's 99th–ranked offense.

    Washington has a pretty good defense, too — #30 in the nation — but it will be pressed more by Boise State's offense, which is mediocre but still ranked higher (#76) than Washington's.

    Of course, it can be argued that Washington faces stiffer competition in the Pac–12, and there is something to that — and the Huskies were on a roll in the second half of the season, winning four straight before losing the regular–season finale to Washington State in overtime.

    Boise State went 10–2 and hasn't lost since Nov. 3, when the Broncos lost to San Diego State.

    Thing is, though, that San Diego State team lost its season opener — to Washington.

    In an upset special, I'll take Washington.
December 27
  • Military Bowl: Bowling Green vs. #24 San Jose State at 2 p.m. (Central) in Washington on ESPN: Excluding the Idaho Potato Bowl, this game qualifies as the least interesting bowl game featuring a Top 25 team, according to Mandel.

    But there is at least one interesting aspect of this game.

    When San Jose State has the ball, it will have the nation's third–ranked passer (David Fales) facing the nation's seventh–best defense. That should be entertaining.

    And if that battle turns into a stalemate, San Jose State defense (28th in the country) seems equipped to handle Bowling Green's offense (85th in the land).

    I favor San Jose State.
  • Holiday Bowl: Baylor vs. #17 UCLA at 8:45 p.m. (Central) in San Diego on ESPN: This one really has the potential to be a good game.

    A couple of weeks ago, UCLA was one win away from playing in only the Bruins' third Rose Bowl in the last 25 years, and Baylor's football team apparently acquired a taste for winning football during Robert Griffin III's Heisman–winning season last year.

    RG III, as Griffin is known, is playing for an NFL playoff berth, but, believe it or not, the once lowly Baylor Bears have the nation's top–rated offense. (For the record, UCLA's offense is pretty good, too. It is ranked #20 in the nation.)

    "Not only can Baylor [be] counted on to rack up 600 yards, but it could allow as many if not more against the attack–minded Bruins," writes Mandel.

    Neither defense has been very impressive so my guess is that the offense that is clicking is the one that will win. I predict that will be Baylor in a high–scoring affair.
December 29
  • Alamo Bowl: Texas vs. #15 Oregon State at 5:45 p.m. (Central) in San Antonio on ESPN: These teams met twice in the '80s, and Texas won both.

    And, frankly, as inexperienced as Oregon State is when it comes to postseason football (well, until fairly recently, that is), it is logical to expect the trend to continue.

    However one may feel about the Longhorns, there is no disputing this: Texas is often maligned for going 8–4 (that's a rebuilding season, as far as UT fans are concerned) but it is seldom mentioned that two of the teams that beat the Longhorns are ranked in the Top 12, and all four are playing in bowls.

    And Texas has a long history of playing in — and winning — bowl games.

    Interestingly, though, the offenses are about even — Oregon State's is ranked 34th and Texas' is ranked 37th.

    On defense, Oregon State appears to have a clear edge. The Beavers are ranked 33rd. Texas is 75th.

    Even more telling are the details of the matchup when the Beavers have the ball. Oregon State's 15th–ranked passing game could have a big day against Texas' 69th–ranked pass defense.

    And that is what I think will happen. I pick Oregon State.
December 31
  • Chick–fil–A Bowl: #14 Clemson vs. #9 LSU at 6:30 p.m. (Central) in Atlanta on ESPN: This will be the third time these schools have faced each other — each time in a bowl, and each of the first two was won by LSU.

    Mandel thinks this will be the fourth–best bowl game, and it isn't hard to see why.

    Clemson has a clear advantage on offense; LSU has a clear advantage on defense. Which will prevail?

    Well, I've always been a big believer in defense so I will take LSU to win.
January 1
  • Gator Bowl: Mississippi State vs. #21 Northwestern at 11 a.m. (Central) in Jacksonville, Fla., on ESPN2: Northwestern has been in bowls on a fairly regular basis for the last couple of decades, but the Wildcats haven't won one since Jan. 1, 1949, when they won the Rose Bowl.

    Mississippi State, meanwhile, has won its last five bowls. The Bulldogs last lost a bowl game on Jan. 1, 1999 — 50 years to the day after Northwestern's last bowl win.

    Obviously, a Northwestern victory would end all sorts of streaks at both schools. And the rankings would suggest that is a possibility. Is it?

    Could well be. Northwestern holds the statistical edge on both offense and defense — although it really is only an edge, nothing more.

    So I look at each team's record against teams that finished in the Top 25. Mississippi State cruised through the soft portion of its schedule, but then dropped three straight to the ranked teams on their schedule — each by 20 points or more.

    Northwestern went 0–2, but one of its losses (to #23 Nebraska) was by a single point, and the other was in overtime to #19 Michigan.

    I pick Northwestern to end its bowl skid.
  • Capital One Bowl: #23 Nebraska vs. #6 Georgia at noon (Central) in Orlando, Fla., on ABC: If you can remember the one and only time these teams met, you really are an old–school fan.

    On Dec. 20, 1969, Nebraska routed Georgia in the Sun Bowl.

    I don't think it will be nearly that lopsided this time. I think it could be one of the most entertaining of the postseason games.

    Nebraska enjoys narrow statistical advantages in both offense and defense — but both teams are in the Top 30 in both categories so we're talking quality on both sides.

    Both programs have long, proud traditions so I guess you have to look at the intangibles.

    Nebraska seemed to stagger through its Big Ten title game, losing to Wisconsin. Georgia, meanwhile, gave Alabama a down–to–the–wire battle for the right to play Notre Dame for the national title and seems to have the momentum.

    I choose Georgia.
  • Outback Bowl: #19 Michigan vs. #11 South Carolina at noon (Central) in Tampa, Fla., on ESPN: Neither team is a stranger to Tampa.

    This is Michigan's fifth Outback Bowl. The Wolverines won three of their first four visits. This is South Carolina's fourth Outback Bowl. The Gamecocks won two of their first three.

    They are, however, virtual strangers to each other. The teams met twice in the 1980s with each team winning on the other team's turf. They haven't faced each other since 1985.

    If this game had been played when I was growing up, Michigan would have been the overwhelming favorite. South Carolina was seldom invited to a bowl in those days — and even more rarely won one.

    But times have changed, and South Carolina showed me that it had some true grit when its top running threat went down with a season–ending injury. The Gamecocks, who were the only ones to beat Georgia until Alabama did it in the SEC Championship game, finished the season 10–2.

    South Carolina comes into this game with the momentum, and I think the Gamecocks will win.
  • Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. #8 Stanford at 4 p.m. (Central) in Pasadena, Calif., on ESPN: The Rose Bowl is the "granddaddy of them all," they say.

    It was first played in 1902, and it has been played every year since 1916. For more than half a century, it was exclusively played between the champions from the conferences in which Wisconsin and Stanford compete.

    Yet this will be only the second time they have met in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin won on that first occasion.

    They played four other times prior to that, and Wisconsin never lost. The Badgers didn't win them all — the teams tied in 1995 — but they might as well have.

    At first blush, it looks like Stanford might reverse that trend this time. Even with Andrew Luck gone to the NFL, Stanford managed to beat highly regarded Oregon and win its division, then win the league championship with its second consecutive win over UCLA.

    Wisconsin, on the other hand, wouldn't even have been in a position to play for the Big Ten crown if Ohio State or Penn State had been eligible to do so. Nevertheless, the Badgers were next in line — much to the chagrin, I'm sure, of Nebraska and the Cornhuskers' fans.

    It would be folly to underestimate Wisconsin — and it would be so easy to do, with Wisconsin's coach bolting for Arkansas.

    Given Arkansas' defensive tradition, though, it isn't hard to see what attracted the Razorbacks' attention. Wisconsin's defense is ranked 13th in the nation.

    I'm inclined to think this might be a low–scoring defensive struggle. Stanford's defense is 21st in the nation.

    And neither offense has been particularly impressive — but Wisconsin's (#62 nationally) has been more productive than Stanford's (#83).

    I pick Wisconsin.
  • Orange Bowl: #16 Northern Illinois vs. #13 Florida State at 7:30 p.m. (Central) in Miami on ESPN: Of late, the Orange Bowl has been a showcase for teams from lesser conferences (i.e., Boise State, Hawaii) playing teams from elite conferences. Sometimes Cinderella wins. Sometimes she doesn't.

    That trend appears to continue this year. NIU is 12–1, but the Wildcats play in the MAC. The ACC, where Florida State plays, isn't on the same level as the SEC, but it is a level or two higher than the MAC.

    Sometimes those teams from the lesser conferences make statements in the Rose Bowl. Remember what Boise did to Oklahoma?

    OK, lightning rarely strikes twice in the same place. But it has been known to happen.

    With that disclaimer, I pick Florida State — with its second–ranked defense.
Janury 2
  • Sugar Bowl: #22 Louisville vs. #4 Florida at 7:30 p.m. (Central) in New Orleans on ESPN: Let's see.

    Florida, which plays in the SEC (whose champion has won six straight national titles), has the fifth–best defense in the nation.

    On offense, Florida has struggled (#102 in the nation), but the Gators do, after all, play in the SEC — and Florida's offense was good enough to beat Texas A&M and future Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. Louisville's offense isn't much better (#47), but the point is that it is better — at least on paper.

    On paper, this should be a game that is decided by defense, so I will take Florida.
January 3

  • Fiesta Bowl: #7 Kansas State vs. #5 Oregon at 7:30 p.m. (Central) in Glendale, Ariz., on ESPN: Mandel writes that, next to the national title tilt, this should be the most interesting bowl game. And I'm inclined to agree.

    By far, Oregon has the most impressive offense. The Ducks are #4 in the nation; the Wildcats are #55.

    Kansas State has the advantage on defense, but it is much more narrow. KSU ranks 42nd in the nation; Oregon is 47th.

    I think Oregon's offense may overwhelm Kansas State's defense, and I expect Oregon to take care of business.
Janury 4

  • Cotton Bowl: #12 Oklahoma vs. #10 Texas A&M at 7 p.m. (Central) in Dallas on Fox: This game got a real shot in the arm when it turned out that the Heisman Trophy winner would be playing in it.

    Ever since the matchup was announced, I've figured it will be well attended. Both campuses are reasonably short drives from Dallas, and both schools have large fan bases that will follow them anywhere.

    For awhile, there was talk that A&M would be paired with Texas, reviving that old rivalry. But the Cotton Bowl officials instead invited Oklahoma, reviving a series that goes back more than a century but really only began to heat up when the Aggies migrated from the imploding Southwest Conference to the newly formed Big 12 Conference in the mid–1990s.

    This will actually be the 30th time the teams have played, and Oklahoma wins about two–thirds of the time. Lately, the Sooners have done better than that, winning eight of the last nine encounters. Current OU coach Bob Stoops beat the Aggies 11 times in 13 seasons.

    Both teams have Top 10 defenses — A&M is third in the land, OU is 10th — and either defense is likely to be capable of stopping the other team's offense (OU ranks 44th, A&M ranks 56th).

    I think this game could be close and quite competitive. It might even go into overtime. But when the dust settles, I think Oklahoma, with a better defense, will win.
January 6
  • GoDaddy Bowl: Arkansas State vs. #25 Kent State at 8 p.m. (Central) in Mobile, Ala., on ESPN: At this stage, with only the national title game remaining in the college football season, this qualifies as an are–you–kidding–me? moment.

    Could anyone really care who wins this game — outside each school's student body and fan base?

    Well, it might be fun to watch, at least when Arkansas State has the ball. ASU is 17th in the country in offense, thanks mostly to its pass–happy ways. Kent State is 74th.

    It's hard for me to see, frankly, how Kent State could be ranked in the Top 25 when neither its offense nor its defense could crack the Top 70.

    I'm taking Arkansas State.
January 7
  • BCS National Championship: #2 Alabama vs. #1 Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. (Central) in Miami on ESPN: This is the big one, the one college football fans have been waiting for.

    These teams have played six times in the past, and Notre Dame has won all but one.

    Bear Bryant faced Notre Dame in the first four meetings, and Alabama lost all four. I think, though, that he would approve of the defensive nature of this game.

    Most college football fans know — or should know — that 'Bama has the top–ranked defense in the nation. But Notre Dame's defense is ranked sixth, and it has overcome numerous challenges this season.

    The offenses are good, not spectacular. Alabama's is ranked 40th in the nation; Notre Dame's is 49th.

    I think this will be a low–scoring game. It might come down to a last–minute score.

    As an Arkansas graduate, I must admit that there is a part of me that wouldn't mind seeing the SEC's streak of national championships grow to seven. And I have friends who went to A&M who wouldn't mind if Alabama won — after all, in addition to having the Heisman Trophy winner, they would also have the only victory over this year's national champion.

    But there's another part of me that says Notre Dame is a team of destiny. What other conclusion can one reach after some of their amazing finishes this year?

    And that part tells me that, somehow, Notre Dame will find a way to win.
Last week: 6–3

Season: 209–58

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Brave New World



When they started calling him "Johnny Football," I figured he was sure to win the Heisman Trophy.

It's one of those nicknames that does more than imply success. It demands it. Like when they started calling Ted Williams Teddy Ballgame. With a nickname like that, I figured Johnny Manziel was bound to win the Heisman — someday, if not this year.

And even though I knew the historical odds were heavily against him, I knew that Manziel has had a phenomenal season — and that, after all, is what the Heisman is supposed to reward. It might have been remote, given the fact that he was sure to be up against upperclassmen who had paid their dues, but I figured he had a pretty good chance.

Even though he is a freshman, and no freshman had ever won the Heisman before.

That was sort of an article of faith when I was a kid. The Heisman only went to seniors — or, sometimes, juniors. Archie Griffin won it twice back in the 1970s. He's the only football player to do that — so far.

I remember when he did it. No one thought it could be done. A Heisman was a one–to–a–customer kind of thing. Griffin aside, it really was believed that a man could only win the Heisman once — and only after he had paid his dues. Juniors rarely won it; sophomores and freshmen never did.

But that has changed in recent years. The sophomore barrier went down a few years ago and, with Manziel's victory, the Heisman is no longer forbidden to freshmen, either.

(I haven't heard it mentioned much — everyone has been so carried away with Manziel becoming the first freshman to win the trophy — but, in the process of his achievement, Manziel kept Notre Dame's Manti Te'o from becoming the first strictly defensive player to win it. That's a barrier that may well last forever.)

It's one more thing that I have lived to see that I never thought I would live to see.

The times, they truly are a–changing.

But I'm not sure that I'll see a repeat next season. Manziel's coaches insist there will be no decline in production in 2013, but, as Sam Gardner observes for Fox Sports, Manziel will "carry a weight much more substantial than his 25–pound Heisman Trophy for a team that won't sneak up on anyone."

The Aggies were helped by the low expectations that accompanied their move to the Southeastern Conference, and Manziel had no spotlight on him when 2012 began.

All that will change next year.

Friday, November 30, 2012

Who Will Play for National Crown?



" 'Ass' is okay providing you're riding into town on a religious feast day."

George Carlin

With so much on the line in Saturday night's game between top–ranked Notre Dame and unranked Southern California, I suppose churches can be forgiven for getting into the act.

It's a big rivalry, anyway, but with a trip to the national championship game hanging in the balance for one — and the desire to deprive the first of that honor motivating the second — I suppose the stakes were just too great.

Well, Notre Dame won the game and, presumably, will be in the title game.

But it remains to be seen who will play against the Irish in January.

Logic says it will be the winner of the SEC Championship game between #2 Alabama and #3 Georgia tomorrow. And I would tend to agree with that — if Alabama wins the game. But if Georgia wins, I think a compelling case could be made for #5 Florida even though Georgia will almost certainly wind up facing Notre Dame if the Bulldogs defeat Alabama (who, it is worth noting, went on to play for and win the national championship last season even though the Crimson Tide did not play for the SEC title).

The Gators are 11–1, same as Georgia and Alabama. They did lose their head–to–head matchup with Georgia a month ago (17–9), but they hammered a South Carolina team that had hammered Georgia two weeks before.

And the Gators did something Alabama couldn't do. They beat Texas A&M on the road. Alabama couldn't beat the Aggies at home.

The stakes are high in the SEC Championship game. The winner, of course, is widely expected to face Notre Dame in the championship game.

But the loser?

Chip Towers of the Atlanta Journal–Constitution contends that the loser of Saturday's game will take a considerable tumble in the bowl picture even though it will only be the second loss for whichever team comes up short.

Idle: #1 Notre Dame, #4 Ohio State, #5 Florida, #6 Oregon, #9 LSU, #10 Texas A&M, #11 South Carolina, #15 Clemson, #16 Oregon, #20 Utah State, #21 Michigan, #22 Northwestern

Friday
  • MAC Championship: #19 Northern Illinois at #18 Kent State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Neither of these 11–1 teams has lost since early September.

    Kent State has a 10–game winning streak on the line, and Northern Illinois has an 11–game winning streak at risk.

    They didn't play each other this season so there is no head–to–head outcome to give us guidance.

    Historically, the series belongs to Northern Illinois, which has never lost to Kent State on its home turf (10–0). Unfortunately for the Huskies, the game is being played at Kent State. Northern Illinois has been very successful there, too — 6–3 — but not quite as successful.

    The teams don't play every year, but Northern Illinois has only lost at Kent once in 30 years. And Northern Illinois has only lost once to Kent State — no matter where the game has been played — in their last 10 meetings.

    That doesn't bode well for the Golden Flashes although the game should be quite a conference showcase.

    Half a dozen backs racked up 1,000 yards or more this season, and three (Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch and Kent State's Dri Archer and Trayion Durham) will be suiting up for the championship.

    Lynch was also the MAC's fifth–best passer — which would be expected, I guess, from the nation's 16th–best offense (Kent was 63rd).

    Northern Illinois also has the better defense (ranked #7 in the nation compared to Kent's #73 ranking).

    I pick Northern Illinois.
  • Pac–12 Championship: #17 UCLA at #8 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: These teams have been playing each other every year since the end of World War II.

    And it's tempting, given the fact that these teams played each other last weekend, to predict a repeat of what happened in Los Angeles last Saturday.

    To refresh your memory, Stanford won that game, 35–17. It was Stanford's second consecutive win on UCLA's home turf.

    Now the scene shifts to the north, to Stanford's home turf — where UCLA has won only twice in the last 15 years.

    UCLA might have the offense to get the job done. The Bruins ranked 21st in the nation (Stanford ranked 83rd). And if the game turns into a shootout, one would expect UCLA to have the upper hand. After all, offense — not defense — has long been the conference's strength.

    But if it turns out to be a defensive struggle, Stanford has the advantage. Stanford ranks 19th in the nation; UCLA is 77th.

    The weather may dictate which it is.

    The forecast for tonight is temperatures in the 50s with an 80% chance of rain (after a day in which the probability of rain is 100%). That suggests that defense may dominate on a sloppy field.

    It's awfully hard for one football team to beat another twice in one year, but I will pick Stanford to pull it off.
Saturday
  • SEC Championship: #3 Georgia vs. #2 Alabama, 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Playing in the SEC Championship game is not a new experience for Alabama.

    The Crimson Tide has played in seven since the conference title game made its debut in 1992 — more appearances than any other SEC West team and all against Florida.

    Georgia is no stranger to the SEC Championship game, either. The Bulldogs will be playing in their fifth.

    You would think that these schools would be natural border rivals, but the truth is they haven't faced each other since 2008.

    And even if they faced each other every year, there are at least three other schools that Alabama has long–standing rivalries with — LSU, Auburn and Florida.

    Alabama is one of those schools that is everyone's rival when the Crimson Tide appears on the schedule.

    Georgia's been good this season, but Alabama has the nation's best defense. And the SEC has always been a bastion for great defense. Georgia's offense is ranked 24th, which is pretty good, but how effective can it be against the best defense in the land?

    Alabama's offense is ranked 43rd, which isn't bad, but Georgia's defense is ranked 22nd in the nation — all of which suggests a low–scoring contest.

    And I'm going to predict that, in an upset, Georgia will win.
  • #23 Texas at #7 Kansas State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There aren't many schools that can claim to have the upper hand in a series with Texas.

    But Kansas State can. The Wildcats are 7–5 against the Longhorns, and they're 6–2 against UT since the formation of the Big 12 in the mid–'90s.

    K–State might still be mentioned — probably would be — in the national championship conversation if not for the 52–24 loss that Baylor hung on the Wildcats last weekend. That, alone, should provide plenty of motivation for the Wildcats.

    When Texas has the ball, the Longhorns' #33 offense should be evenly matched with K–State's #40 defense. When Kansas State has the ball, it seems likely the Wildcats will have the edge. Their offense is ranked only #55, but Texas' woeful defense is ranked #79.

    I think Kansas State will win the game.
  • #12 Oklahoma at TCU, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the first time these teams have faced each other as members of the same conference, but they are hardly strangers.

    They have played 11 times in the past, and Oklahoma leads the series, 7–4.

    TCU has a good team, but I'm not sure the Frogs have what it takes to beat OU, even at home.

    The marquee matchup should occur when OU has the ball. The Sooners' offense is ninth in the nation, but it should be adequately tested by TCU's defense, which is ranked 14th.

    The Sooner' #44 defense should be evenly matched with TCU's offense (#55), which leads me to believe the Sooners will have the upper hand.

    I pick Oklahoma.
  • ACC Championship: #13 Florida State at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is kind of an odd series.

    From 1955 to 1975, Georgia Tech was 6–0–1 against Florida State, but then the Seminoles reeled off 12 straight wins from 1992 to 2003.

    The teams didn't play again until 2008, but Tech won that year and again in 2009. They haven't played since.

    Georgia Tech lost its leading rusher, Orwin Smith, to a sprained ankle against Georgia last Saturday, but he hopes to be back in the lineup for the ACC Championship game.

    That would be good news for Tech fans, whose 28th–ranked offense likely will struggle with Florida State's second–ranked defense even with Smith in the lineup. Tech's 59th–ranked defense, meanwhile, can be expected to have a hard time containing Florida State's 19th–ranked offense.

    I think Florida State will win the game.
  • Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin at #14 Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If you're a fan of defense, this might be the game for you.

    Both defenses rank in the Top 15 nationally (Wisconsin is #11, Nebraska is #15). Nebraska's offense (#24) seems much better equipped to handle that challenge than Wisconsin's (#84).

    As a result, I have to pick Nebraska to win.
  • #24 Oklahoma State at Baylor, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Oklahoma State has only lost to Baylor once since 1994, and the Cowboys currently have a six–game winning streak against the Bears.

    The teams combined for 83 points in each of their last two meetings, but, if anything, their offenses appear to be capable of doing even better than that this time. Baylor is ranked second in the nation, OSU is ranked fifth.

    But Baylor has the next–to–worst defense in the nation. The Bears were able to overcome that in their game with Kansas State next week, but I don't see how they can manage that two weeks in a row.

    I pick Oklahoma State.
  • #25 Boise State at Nevada, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: It's really hard for me to see how Boise State can lose this game.

    Historically, Boise dominates the series, leading 11–4. Boise has only lost to Nevada once since 1999.

    Nevada, however, has the #10 offense in the land, which should make for some intriguing clashes when Boise's eighth–ranked defense is on the field.

    Boise State's offense is only #79 in the country — a considerable tumble from recent years — but that should produce another even match since Nevada's defense is ranked 86th.

    There's a natural inclination within me (as there is within many people) to pull for the underdog, and, if I watch this game on Saturday, I'll probably pull for Nevada since the Wolf Pack are almost certain to be the underdogs (given their history against Boise State).

    But logic tells me Boise State will win.
Last week: 13–6

Season: 203–55

Sunday, November 25, 2012

The End of the Macho Man



During his lifetime, I sometimes heard Hector "Macho" Camacho compared to Muhammad Ali.

And I could see certain similarities. Both were dynamic and charismatic. Matt Schubel writes in the Washington Post of Camacho's "theatrical presence" in the ring.

Like Ali, he was also a gifted fighter, faster than any of his contemporaries and possessed of a style unlike any of his rivals.

Some people would even extend the comparison to include both fighters' brushes with the law — but, while the law is the law and, technically speaking, there is no real difference between a violation of one law and a violation of another, there are differences between Ali and Camacho.

Justice is supposed to be blind. In that sense, all laws are created equal.

But not all crimes are created equal.

With the exception of claiming conscientious objector status during the Vietnam War, Ali has — to my knowledge — observed the laws of his homeland, even those with which he may have disagreed.

He became a cultural lightning rod with his refusal to fight in Vietnam, and there are still those who berate him for it. He served no time in prison, but he was stripped of his title and did not fight for nearly four years — a boxer's prime years — until the matter had been resolved in court.

No court ruling could restore to Ali what had been taken from him, but he went on to become the first three–time heavyweight champion, anyway.

Camacho, on the other hand, "was continually shadowed by drug problems and legal entanglements," writes Schubel. That may well have been what brought about the end of his life.

Camacho was shot in the face Tuesday while he sat in a car in Puerto Rico and was taken off life support yesterday. A companion also was killed in what was an apparent ambush, and cocaine reportedly was found on the scene.

He embraced the persona of the "Macho Man" with the same relish that Ali boasted that he was "The Greatest," but there was a difference between them.

When he was growing up, Camacho was always getting into trouble of some kind. He claimed to have been expelled from half a dozen schools by the time he was 15. He had served time in jail by the time he was 17, and the self–professed "gutter kid" brought the behavior he had learned to the ring.

He was often criticized for using dirty tricks in the ring, but he was also capable of extraordinary things — like the time Julio Cesar Chavez won a brutal decision over him 20 years ago. Chavez was on a mission to knock out Camacho, but Camacho took everything that was thrown at him and was still standing at the end — "snarling through the blood," wrote Sports Illustrated's Pat Putnam.

Ironically, street crime did play a role in Ali's decision to take up boxing. At the age of 12, Ali had a brand–new bicycle, which was stolen when he left it unattended, prompting him to rant about what he would do to the thief if he caught him.

Ali was encouraged to "learn something about fighting," and Ali had found his path in life.

I always felt Camacho had more in common with Mike Tyson than Muhammad Ali.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Thanksgiving Ain't What It Used to Be


The Nebraska–Oklahoma game on Thanksgiving in 1971
was called the "Game of the Century" by many.


Today is Thanksgiving Day, a day when traditional football rivalries were renewed in days of old.

Things have changed — not so much in the NFL, where the Lions and Cowboys continue to host holiday games as they have for decades, but in the college ranks. When I was a child, Oklahoma and Nebraska played their annual grudge match on or around Thanksgiving every year. Here in Texas, the Longhorns and Aggies faced off every year — and continued to do so until this season.

Sure, there are some rivalries that are still played during the four–day Thanksgiving weekend.

Mississippi State and Ole Miss will play the "Egg Bowl," as always. Alabama will play Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Georgia and Georgia Tech will square off in the latest edition of "Clean, Old–Fashioned Hate." Michigan will play Ohio State. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will renew the "Bedlam Series." Notre Dame and Southern Cal will face each other. Florida will play Florida State.

Yes, sir, still lots of good rivalries — but some of the best are gone. And none of the ones that remain are played on Thanksgiving — at least, not this year.

That's a shame.

Idle: #7 Kansas State

Today
  • TCU at #18 Texas, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: When I was growing up, watching this game qualified as a waste of time. (But watching it was never an option unless you were a student on the home campus because, in those pre–cable days, the TCU–Texas game was never televised.)

    Long before the day I enrolled in elementary school through my college days (including my graduate school days) and beyond, Texas and TCU played each other every year as members of the Southwest Conference — and Texas rarely lost. More often than not, it was a blowout. More often than not, TCU didn't score — or didn't score much.

    But times — and circumstances — have changed. The teams are back in the same conference, and although TCU has struggled this season, this isn't your father's Horned Frogs. They are more competitive than they used to be. They've even played in the Rose Bowl (won it, too).

    Of course, Texas has played in Pasadena recently, too — twice, in fact, with victories in both. A trip to the Rose Bowl won't be on the line tonight, but TCU would like to win in Austin for the first time since 1967.

    The Frogs might just do it, too. They have the 16th–best defense in the nation and should be capable of stopping Texas' 30th–ranked offense. TCU's offense is, at best, average (57th in the country), but Texas' defense (84th in the country) isn't even that good.

    It will probably be regarded as an upset, but I will pick TCU.
Friday
  • Ohio at #23 Kent State, 10 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: This is really an interesting series.

    The schools have played each other every year for the last 50 years, and Ohio has won 62% of the time.

    Recent history hasn't been favorable for Kent, either. The Bobcats have mirrored that all–time winning percentage in the last 16 years, going 10–6 against the Flashes. Of course, Kent has won more games than it lost only once in the last quarter of a century.

    But history is changing, as Michael J. Fox said in "Back to the Future." Kent is 10–1 this year, and the Flashes are already assured of their best record ever, even if they lose to Ohio again.

    The numbers suggest that might happen. Ohio (8–3) is rated higher on both sides of the ball, and that includes Ohio's season–opening win over Penn State. On the surface, Kent's record is gaudier, but the Flashes' only loss was to Kentucky, a 2–9 football bottom feeder in the SEC.

    I think Ohio will win in an upset.
  • #17 Nebraska at Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: When I was a child, Nebraska frequently finished its regular season with a big Thanksgiving Day game against Oklahoma.

    That tradition gradually gave way to the Nebraska–Colorado game, which stopped being played when the schools left the Big 12 for other pastures.

    Now, the Cornhuskers' season finale is with Iowa — or, at least, that's what it has been in Nebraska's first two seasons in the Big Ten. I don't know if it will become the holiday tradition Oklahoma–Nebraska was, but it has some potential. After all, Iowa may be 4–7, but the Hawkeyes have been successful far more often than not in the last 10 years. It seems like simply a matter of time before they return to prominence.

    This year, though, it appears to be no contest. Nebraska's offense and defense both rank in the Top 20. Iowa's defense is #60, and that is the Hawkeyes' strong point. Their offense ranks #110.

    I pick Nebraska to improve to 10–2.
  • #24 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan, noon (Central) on ESPN3.com: These schools have met 25 times in the last 35 years, and Northern Illinois has owned the series, winning more than three–quarters of the time.

    When Eastern Michigan has the ball, the 100th–ranked offense will be trying to score against the 44th–best defense. As much of a mismatch as that appears to be, Eastern Michigan will be fielding the 115th defense against the nation's 15th–best offense.

    I think Northern Illinois should win easily.
  • #8 LSU at Arkansas, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: They call this the battle for the Golden Boot, a trophy inspired by the physical maps of Louisiana and Arkansas.

    I don't think they've been calling it that all along, but it is an old rivalry, dating back to 1906. And, in recent years, it's been a competitive rivalry.

    It's also been friendly to the home fans lately. The last four meetings have been won by the home team.

    All time, the advantage belongs to LSU, and this season has leaned in that direction as well. LSU still has a slender chance to finish in a three–way tie for the SEC West title with Alabama and Texas A&M if the Tigers beat Arkansas — but, unlike recent years, the Tigers have no hope of playing for the national title.

    They still will need an upset by Auburn against Alabama on Saturday if they are to share the SEC West crown — and that isn't likely.

    But it will still be a possibility when LSU plays Arkansas.

    For Arkansas, though, it is the last game in a season that was expected to be so much different. The 4–7 Razorbacks lost their remaining chance of a bowl bid when they lost to Mississippi State last week, and all they will bring into Friday's game is pride.

    The numbers suggest that won't be enough to finish the season on a positive note. LSU has the fifth–best defense in the land, and I think it will be able to stop Arkansas' 54th–ranked offense. On the other side of the ball, it might be a fairly even match; Arkansas' 79th–ranked defense might give LSU's 68th–ranked offense a competitive game.

    But LSU appears likely to make the Razorbacks turn the ball over, and that means an LSU victory is probable.
Saturday
  • #1 Notre Dame at Southern Cal, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Of all the schools that consider Notre Dame their rival — and there are many — Southern California is acknowledged by most to be Notre Dame's primary rival.

    Between them, Southern Cal and Notre Dame have produced more national titles, more Heisman Trophy winners and more All–Americans than any other rivalry, and, with the exception of the World War II years, they've squared off every year since Knute Rockne roamed the Notre Dame sidelines.

    Notre Dame leads the all–time series, but Southern Cal has dominated for the last decade, winning nine out of the last 10 meetings (I suppose, in a way, that makes up for that period from 1983 to 1995 when Notre Dame's only blemish against USC was a 17–17 tie in 1994).

    And Southern Cal's quarterback is guaranteeing a victory over the Irish this year.

    Not so fast, my friend.

    Notre Dame has the nation's sixth–best defense, which should make for some memorable clashes when the Irish are on the field with USC's 27th–ranked offense.

    When the Irish have the ball, it should be more competitive. Notre Dame is 50th in offense; USC is 58th in defense.

    But the Notre Dame defense has been remarkably resilient. I pick Notre Dame to win the game.
  • Auburn at #2 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: For three straight years, the winner of this game has gone on to win the national championship.

    You might think that Auburn tends to win when it has a Heisman winner (or, at least, a Heisman contender) on its roster; however, the Tigers didn't win the year Pat Sullivan won the Heisman (1971) or the year Bo Jackson won it (1985), but they did beat Alabama the year Cam Newton won the Heisman (2010).

    With no one like Sullivan, Jackson or Newton in the backfield, the numbers suggest that Alabama's second–ranked defense will toy with Auburn's 112th–ranked offense.

    Auburn's defense (#74 in the land) might be a little more competitive against Alabama's offense (#44), but I see no reason to think Alabama won't notch its eighth win in the last 11 meetings with Auburn.
  • Georgia Tech at #3 Georgia, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: Georgia has won the last three contests in a series known simply as "Clean, Old–Fashioned Hate."

    In fact, Georgia Tech has won only once (2008) in the last 11 contests. And there is little, if any, reason to think Tech will log its second win over the Bulldogs since 2001.

    Both teams will play in their conference championship games next weekend. The 6–5 Yellow Jackets will take on #10 Florida State, and Georgia will face the representative of the SEC West. Presumably, that will be #2 Alabama — but that has not been determined yet.

    The numbers favor Georgia. The Bulldogs' offense is 25th in the nation and should have the upper hand with Tech's #61 defense. When Tech has the ball, the Yellow Jackets' #28 offense should have its hands full with Georgia's #20 defense.

    Georgia has beaten Tech four of the last five times they have played in Athens, and I pick Georgia to win this one as well.
  • #20 Michigan at #4 Ohio State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: I think most people would call this a classic football rivalry. And it seems fitting that both teams are ranked.

    That hasn't always been the case, but it sure seemed to be when I was growing up.

    Historically, Michigan leads the series, but Ohio State has more than made up for it in the last 75 years. Michigan still leads the series overall, but the Buckeyes bounced back, especially in the Woody Hayes era.

    Well, that's what happened in the past. What do the numbers tell us about this year?

    The elite units for both teams are on defense, and of the two, Michigan's is ranked higher (#12) than Ohio State's (#38). Neither offense has been overly impressive. Ohio State's is ranked higher (#45) than Michigan's (#67).

    That points to a close, low–scoring contest, and my thoughts turn to other factors, such as the home field advantage (Ohio State has won five in a row at home against Michigan) and motivation.

    Ohio State is unbeaten but also prohibited from playing for the conference title — and that could be all the motivation the Buckeyes need. Michigan could play for the conference crown if Nebraska loses to Iowa on Friday — and the outcome of that game will be known before Ohio State and Michigan kick off — but it is unknown right now.

    In what may be regarded as an upset, I will pick Michigan and its defense to prevail.
  • #5 Oregon at #16 Oregon State, 2 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: You might not know it from Oregon's success in recent years, but as recently as 2007, Oregon State led the all–time series.

    Then Oregon started its current four–game winning streak and seized the lead. And with the fourth–best offense in the country, you have to figure that Oregon will be favored to put some points on the board — even though Oregon State's defense is ranked #26.

    The Pac–12 has been known for its offenses over the years so I'll go with the flashy offense in this matchup and pick Oregon to win.
  • #6 Florida at #10 Florida State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: Seems like old times.

    Well, not quite. I mean, it's great for this rivalry that both teams are in the Top 10 — but 15 years ago or so, both of these teams would have been in the Top Two.

    In the tradition of great Southern defenses, both schools Florida State has the top–ranked defense in the nation, and Florida has the fourth–ranked unit. But Florida State's offense (#14 in the nation) seems much better–prepared to face a Top 10 defense than Florida's (#104).

    The good news for the Florida offense is that banged–up QB Jeff Driskel is slated to rejoin the team but may not play.

    Regardless, I'll take Florida State at home.
  • Missouri at #9 Texas A&M, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Recent history favors Missouri in this game. The Tigers have won five of the six games the schools have played in the last 10 years.

    All eyes will be on Johnny (Football) Manziel, the freshman phenom who has led the Aggies to their #5 ranking in offense and will be making his case for the Heisman Trophy.

    The Aggies won't wind up in the SEC Championship game, but they'll finish strongly as Texas A&M should have little trouble with Missouri.
  • #11 Stanford at #15 UCLA, 5:30 p.m. (Central) on Fox: If everything happens just so, this could be a preview of the Pac–12 title game.

    UCLA has already clinched its division, and Stanford, with its win over Oregon last week, could be the Bruins' opponent.

    That is highly unlikely — but only because Oregon probably will turn back Oregon State today. Stanford and UCLA should know the outcome of that game before they kick off their own.

    In the past, UCLA has had the advantage in the series, but Stanford has won the last three contests. It is worth remembering, though, that, when Stanford beat UCLA in Los Angeles in 2010, it was the first time the Cardinal had beaten the Bruins there since 1996.

    In the tradition of Pac–12 powers, UCLA does have a Top 20 offense (#16) — but Stanford has a Top 20 defense (#18). That sure sounds a lot more appealing than the matchup that will occur when Stanford's offense (#85 in the nation) takes the field against UCLA's defense (#80).

    I expect this to be a close game, but I'll go with the home team, UCLA.
  • #13 South Carolina at #12 Clemson, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I really have to give South Carolina credit.

    The Gamecocks lost their star running back, but they have persevered and enter this game with a 9–2 record and a three–game winning streak. But the three teams this squad has beaten in that winning streak (Tennessee, Arkansas, Wofford) are not as good as the team they will face on Saturday.

    South Carolina has won three straight against Clemson, but the Gamecocks have really struggled at Clemson, where they trail in the all–time series, 16–9–1.

    The marquee matchup in this game will come when Clemson's sixth–ranked offense is on the field against South Carolina's 13th–ranked defense. Clemson's defense isn't anything special (#69 in the country), but it seems likely to be able to handle South Carolina's offense (ranked 93rd in the country).

    I expect Clemson to win.
  • #22 Oklahoma State at #14 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: I know from my years in Oklahoma that the "Bedlam Series," as the athletic rivalry between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is known, attracts insane amounts of attention.

    When I lived in Norman, OU probably had its worst football seasons in at least a couple of decades, if not more. But Oklahoma State was probably worse, and the record in my four years there was two wins for OU, one win for OSU and one tie.

    (That, incidentally, was after the Barry Switzer era had ended. Under Switzer, OU fans probably took victories in the Bedlam Series for granted. After all, he was 15–1 against the Cowboys.)

    Nevertheless, people absolutely flocked to the games. In Okie hearts, only two games really matter on the annual football schedule — the Texas game and the OSU game. Nebraska used to be a rival until the Cornhuskers departed for the Big Ten.

    Both schools have had better football teams in the years since I left Oklahoma. This year, OSU is ranked third in offense, and OU is ranked 11th. Defense has not been either team's strongest point, but OU is ranked 41st and OSU is ranked 54th.

    I'm inclined to give Oklahoma the edge — the Sooners are at home, they've beaten OSU seven of the last nine times they have met in Norman, and their defense is better than OSU's.
  • Connecticut at #19 Louisville, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: Not surprisingly, Louisville leads the series, 5–3 — largely on the strength of a 3–1 mark at home.

    For a 4–6 team, Connecticut is in the Top 10 in defense (#9). Louisville (9–1) is ranked #32. Offense has been neither team's strength this season, but Louisville's (#42) has been far better than Connecticut's (#109).

    Most of the time, teams score on offense and, considering that Louisville's has been so much more effective than Connecticut's, I'll pick Louisville to win.
  • #21 Rutgers at Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Historically, this series has belonged to Pittsburgh — except for the last seven games, five of which have been won by Rutgers.

    But 8–1 Rutgers need not be cocky about facing 4–6 Pittsburgh. Records can be deceiving. Rutgers' only loss came against Kent State (which lost to lowly Kentucky in September), and Pittsburgh took Notre Dame to triple overtime before finally losing.

    Both defenses are ranked higher than the teams' offenses. Rutgers' defense is 14th in the nation (Pittsburgh's is 39th). On offense, Pittsburgh is ranked 58th, and Rutgers is ranked 96th.

    These teams have seldom played in November; when they have played this late in November — and they've only played on or after Nov. 20 twice before — Pittsburgh usually wins.

    So, in what is likely to be seen as an upset, I pick Pittsburgh.
  • Idaho at #25 Utah State, 2 p.m. (Central) on ESPN–Plus: Idaho's only win this season came against New Mexico State.

    Utah State, on the other hand, pounded New Mexico State, and its only two losses were by extremely thin margins to Wisconsin and BYU.

    Utah State is ranked #21 on both offense and defense. Idaho, on the other hand, doesn't make the Top 100 in either category.

    I feel safe in predicting that Utah State will win comfortably.
  • #25 Mississippi State at Ole Miss, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Known as the Egg Bowl, Mississippi State has won five of the last seven contests.

    But their victory in Oxford in 2010 was the Bulldogs' first since 1998.

    The series dates back to 1901, but only since 1927 has it been known as the "Battle for the Golden Egg." And that is what the winning team receives — a trophy shaped like a golden egg.

    For many years, the teams played in Jackson, a more centrally located site (and more of a neutral one, too), but the series was moved back to the campuses in 1991. Ole Miss leads the series overall, but Mississippi State has a 12–9 advantage since the series returned to the campuses.

    Mississippi State also was 12–6 against Ole Miss when they met in Jackson every year from 1973 to 1990, so it can be reasonably said that Mississippi State has dominated the series for the last four decades.

    The numbers from 2012 suggest that this isn't likely to change on Saturday.

    I do think the game will be close. But the highest–ranked unit in the game is Mississippi State's defense (#45). It should be adequately challenged by Ole Miss' offense (#53).

    Mississippi State's offense (#68) should be similarly challenged by Ole Miss' defense (#57).

    That makes me think turnovers will decide the outcome, and Mississippi State has been far better in turnover margin than Ole Miss.

    Consequently, I will go with Mississippi State.
Last week: 16–5

Season: 190–49

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

A Play to Remember



Thirty years ago today, I was here in Dallas, covering the Arkansas–SMU game for the newspaper for which I was working. I was only a few months removed from college, and covering a big football game like that at Texas Stadium was a huge deal for me.

That weekend, I stayed with my parents, who were planning to attend the game with some friends. And, because I was about to observe my birthday later that week, we had to do birthday type stuff during that visit, too — like eating cake.

My point is that there was a lot going on that day — and I completely missed seeing the biggest moment of the day until several hours after it happened.

When I saw it, though, I knew it was one of those clips that would live forever in the sports world.

I am talking about "The Play" — the multilateral kickoff return on the final play of the 1982 California–Stanford game. For more than a century now, that Bay area grudge match has been called the "Big Game," but it may never have been bigger or had a bigger finish that it did 30 years ago today.

Call it the "Big Play."

John Elway had already led Stanford down the field for the field goal that appeared to put Stanford in front for good, 20–19. Eight seconds remained on the clock, and Cal's announcer cryptically told his listeners, "Only a miracle can save the Bears now."

And a miracle is precisely what happened.

Stanford squibkicked the ball. After a lot of scrambling and at least four laterals, Kevin Moen took the ball into the end zone for the winning score, dodging members of the Stanford band who had been prematurely celebrating.

He couldn't dodge the trombone player, though. (Last month, Kelli Anderson shared her memories of being in Stanford's band that afternoon with SI.com's readers.)

Most of the people I have heard speak about fantastic finishes and the history of the Stanford–Cal game seem to agree that "The Play" was the most memorable of them all.

And it may have been.

It was certainly the most costly for Elway. It always seemed likely to me that "The Play" cost Elway the Heisman Trophy less than a month later to Georgia's Herschel Walker. Being a senior, he never had another chance to win it.

"The Play" also cost him what would have been the only bowl bid of his collegiate career; nevertheless, he was taken first by Baltimore in the draft, then traded to Denver, where Elway eventually led the Broncos to five Super Bowls — and two Super Bowl titles.

If most think "The Play" was one of the most exciting finishes ever in college football, then there are some, writes Vytas Mazeika in the San Jose Mercury News, who don't even think it is one of the top finishes in the history of the "Big Game."

But the Big Play was still big.

Saturday, November 17, 2012

All Shook Up



The college football landscape shifted last weekend when Texas A&M upset the top–ranked team in the nation, Alabama.

And some Aggie hearts beat a little faster at the thought of playing in the SEC Championship game next month — but the fact is that Alabama, which is still the highest–ranked team in the SEC, almost certainly will be playing for the conference title.

Alabama has only one conference game remaining — against 2–8 Auburn in the 71st edition of the Iron Bowl next Saturday. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but the notion that this Auburn team might hand Alabama its second conference loss is just a little far–fetched, it seems to me.

However, just to play devil's advocate, let's say that Auburn pulls off an upset. That could mean a tie in the SEC West with either Texas A&M or LSU or both. That much isn't clear yet. A&M might stumble against Missouri, and LSU might falter against Ole Miss or Arkansas. Neither is likely, but they remain possible until the games are played.

What would be clear is that the SEC's streak of six consecutive national titles will end.

That may be the case, anyway. Top–ranked Oregon may be playing for the national title in January, but the Ducks must beat three straight ranked teams to get there.

Kansas State might be able to punch its ticket for the January showdown in its last two games, but that remains to be seen — as it does for the nation's third–ranked team, Notre Dame.

The next couple of weeks promise to be very interesting.

Idle: #18 Texas, #20 Louisville

Today
  • #14 Stanford at #1 Oregon, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: I know there is a lot of talk on the West Coast these days about Oregon possibly playing for the national championship.

    Such talk was going on even before Alabama lost to Texas A&M last weekend, but now that Oregon is in the top spot, I suppose it has accelerated.

    Certainly, Alabama's loss put additional pressure on the Ducks, who were sure to be feeling more stress this week, anyway, with their upcoming game against #14 Stanford — and, if the Ducks win that one, there will be even more pressure when they face their in–state rivals from Oregon State the following week.

    Then, of course, if the Ducks win those two games, there will be the pressure of the Pac–12 Championship game, which figures to be against the winner of today's game between USC and UCLA.

    Neither Kansas State nor Notre Dame will have to play in a conference championship game, but the Irish will have to play #21 Southern Cal on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

    In fact, K–State may have the easiest road to the national championship game of the top three. After facing Baylor this weekend, the Wildcats have the next week off before closing the season against #18 Texas. (Not that beating Texas will be easy, but at least the Wildcats will get to face the Longhorns on their home turf.)

    But back to the Oregon–Stanford game ...

    The historical record suggests that Stanford would be a lot better off playing this game at home where the Cardinal have beaten the Ducks nearly 63% of the time. When the game has been played in Eugene, the Ducks have been victorious more than half the time.

    Oregon has by far the better offense. Ranked third in the country, it is light years ahead of Stanford's 84th–ranked offense.

    It's not entirely bleak for Stanford, though. The Cardinal defense may pose the stiffest challenge that Oregon will face in Pac–12 play this year (even though the Oregon State game is looming next week).

    But I still think Oregon will prevail at home.
  • #2 Kansas State at Baylor, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: Well, even though KSU is undefeated and Baylor is just barely flirting with the .500 mark, this might not be quite so easy for the Wildcats.

    KSU is 4–0 at home against Baylor, but the Wildcats are just 3–2 at Waco — and Baylor has beaten K–State the last two times they have played there.

    The Bears have the better offense by far. Baylor is #2 in the nation in that category (compared to K–State at #47). But defense, they say, wins championships, and the Wildcats' 34th–ranked defense is much better than Baylor's (#120).

    I figure KSU will have its ups and downs against Baylor's offense — but when the Wildcats have the ball, they almost can't help being productive against the Baylor defense. Only one of Baylor's 10 opponents has failed to score at least 23 points, and most have scored at least 35. Kansas State, on the other hand, has scored 44 points or more six times this season.

    (Some of those points were scored by the defense, but most of them were scored on offense.)

    It seems obvious to me that Kansas State will win this game.
  • Wake Forest at #3 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC: These teams met for the first time last season, and Notre Dame, en route to an 8–5 mark, won the game, 24–17.

    That game was played at Wake Forest. This time, the teams meet in South Bend.

    As I mentioned, Notre Dame has the challenge of facing USC next week, but, as long as the Irish don't overlook the 5–5 Demon Deacons, they ought to be undefeated when they face the Trojans.

    After all, Notre Dame's eighth–ranked defense should dispose of Wake Forest's 111th–ranked offense. And, while Notre Dame's offense has been adequate but not great, Wake Forest's defense appears ill–equipped to stop it.

    Notre Dame should win.
  • Western Carolina at #4 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network: I can't understand why anyone would want to televise this game — but, for some reason, many teams in the Top 25 are facing non–Division 1–A opponents this weekend — and, barring any extremely unforeseen developments, they should have no trouble.

    One would think that Alabama, with the second–best defense in the land, would be unimpressed with Western Carolina. I fully expect Alabama to win.
  • Georgia Southern at #5 Georgia: This game has a lot in common with the Alabama game — one of the best SEC teams is playing at home against a non–Division 1–A team.

    Unless something really unexpected happens, I believe Georgia will win.
  • #6 Ohio State at Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These teams almost always have winning records when they face each other.

    And Ohio State almost always wins.

    The Buckeyes have been much more successful at home, but they've been successful against Wisconsin wherever the game has been played. At Wisconsin, Ohio State is 25–11–2 — but the Badgers have won two of the last three games that were played there.

    And logic suggests that, if Wisconsin can make it three of four, the Badgers (who would then be 8–3) will return to the Top 25.

    I think it should be a good game. Ohio State has the better offense, but Wisconsin's defense currently ranks in the Top 20 nationally — and should be up to the task of stopping the Buckeyes.

    I'm probably going out on a limb, but I'll pick Wisconsin in a mild upset.
  • Jacksonville State at #7 Florida: Like the Alabama and Georgia games, I see no reason why the home team should lose to this non–Division 1–A team.

    Florida should win easily.
  • Ole Miss at #8 LSU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: Known as the "Magnolia Bowl," this rivalry dates back to the 19th century.

    Its heyday came in the 1950s and 1960s, when both teams brought lofty rankings and winning records into their annual clashes (they even met in the Sugar Bowl once).

    In a sort of general view of sports history, not much has changed for LSU, which is ranked eighth in the land, but Ole Miss (5–5) has struggled.

    Ole Miss has the better offense, but LSU's defense (#3 in the nation) seems well prepared for it.

    That — and home field, where LSU is 37–23–1 against Ole Miss — seems likely to propel LSU to victory.
  • Sam Houston State at #9 Texas A&M: This must seem like a real breather to the Aggies, who have won eight of their last nine games (the exception being a five–point loss to LSU last month).

    And, after winning on the road against the top–ranked team in the nation last week, Texas A&M simply can't be impressed with Sam Houston State.

    A BCS bowl berth is possible for the Aggies if they keep their eyes on the prize, and I see no reason why they shouldn't do that today. Texas A&M should win this game.
  • #10 Florida State at Maryland, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: There really isn't much reason, frankly, for Maryland fans to watch this game — either in person or on TV.

    Historically, Florida State has won 20 of the 22 meetings between the schools and has never lost at home — so I guess there is one good thing about this game for Maryland fans. It's being played in College Park, not Tallahassee.

    It could be depressing for Terps fans when they have the ball. Maryland's offense is the worst in the land while Florida State's defense is the best. Things might be much better for Maryland when Florida State has the ball. The Seminoles are #11 in the country in offense, but the Terps, who are 16th in defense, might be able to stop them.

    One wonders, though, if the Terps might stop themselves. Statistically, Maryland's offense is –10 in turnovers, and the thought of cashing in on that and beefing up the defensive statistics must be motivating for FSU's defense.

    On the flip side, I wonder if Florida State can maintain its focus, knowing that its annual rivalry game with #7 Florida is only a week away.

    Can Maryland win? I doubt it. I pick Florida State.
  • North Carolina State at #11 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: When North Carolina State beat Clemson last year, it snapped a seven–game Clemson winning streak against the Wolfpack.

    But the 6–4 Wolfpack still have plenty to play for — like a more prestigious bowl appearance — and Clemson could well be distracted by next week's game with South Carolina.

    But if Clemson's offense (seventh in the nation) remains focused, it should be able to dominate N.C. State's defense (61st in the country) and give the Tigers the winning edge. I figure Clemson's defense (#57 in the land) is evenly matched with N.C. State's offense (#59).

    I pick Clemson.
  • Wofford at #12 South Carolina: I really thought South Carolina would struggle after losing its marquee running back to an injury a few weeks ago.

    But the Gamecocks have persevered, and they should be 9–2 after beating this non–Division 1–A foe — if they don't start daydreaming about their game next week against #11 Clemson.

    I don't think they will. I think South Carolina will win.
  • #13 Oklahoma at West Virginia, 6 p.m. (Central) on Fox: It should be rather cold in West Virginia tonight.

    I used to live in Oklahoma so I know the OU players are accustomed to the cold weather, but this isn't like what they have been dealing with lately. It's going to be in the mid–50s (at best) during the day, and temperatures are expected to decline rapidly after the sun goes down.

    It's a modest series to date — only four games have been played — and the teams have never played in Morgantown so this will be a first — and a chilly one at that.

    The offenses are pretty even — OU is #16, West Virginia is #18 — so that means defenses probably will be decisive — and that is where OU (#20) has a huge edge over West Virginia (#110).

    I predict that Oklahoma will win.
  • California at #15 Oregon State, 9:30 p.m. (Central) on Pac–12: I'm sure it must be tempting for the Beavers to overlook the Bears with the showdown with #1 Oregon coming up next week, but a loss to the Bears would knock Oregon State out of the running for the Pac–12 championship game.

    Well, they're probably out of the running for that, anyway, what with Stanford and Oregon playing each other today. Oregon is undefeated and Stanford only has one loss in Pac–12 play whereas Oregon State has two conference losses. Logic says the winner of the Oregon–Stanford game will represent the division in the conference championship game.

    But, as this day begins, a three–way tie at the top of the division is still mathematically possible and, if that happens, I don't know what the Pac–12's tiebreaker would be.

    If there is to be such a tie, two things must happen this week: Stanford must beat Oregon this afternoon and Oregon State must beat California tonight.

    I have already predicted that Stanford will not hold up its end of the bargain, but Oregon State has a significantly better defense than California. Both offenses are rather average so defense figures to dominate in this game.

    Consequently, I will pick Oregon State.
  • Minnesota at #16 Nebraska, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Big Ten Network: I have found that many people mistakenly believe that, because Nebraska is a newcomer to the Big Ten, its series with most of the members of the conference are rather sparse.

    That may well be the case with some of the schools, but Nebraska has a long history with Minnesota. They've played 52 times — but last year, Nebraska's first in the Big Ten, was the first time the teams had faced each other in more than two decades.

    Nebraska's win in 2011 was its 15th straight against Minnesota. The Gophers haven't beaten the Cornhuskers since 1960, and it is hard to imagine 6–4 Minnesota topping an 8–2 Nebraska team that has lost only to #17 UCLA and #6 Ohio State.

    Especially since Nebraska enjoys such a huge advantage on offense (the Cornhuskers are #17 in the country while Minnesota is #96). Minnesota actually has the edge on defense, but it is narrow (Minnesota is #25; Nebraska is #28).

    On the strength of a superior offense and the home field advantage, I choose Nebraska.
  • #21 USC at #17 UCLA, 2 p.m. (Central) on Fox: When I was a kid, the USC–UCLA game was one of the top rivalry games that was televised every year — usually during the Thanksgiving season.

    USC usually won the game as it has throughout history (the Trojans have won about 61% of the time, and they've won 12 of the last 13) — but the thing that should concern this USC football team about this UCLA team is that UCLA has the #13 offense in the nation — and the third best in the Pac–12, a conference that is known for flashy offenses.

    Southern Cal has a pretty good offense, too (#28), and logic says it shouldn't have much trouble with UCLA's #75 defense. But neither should UCLA's offense have too much difficulty with USC's #58 defense.

    It seems to me to be a matter of which offense executes its game plan the most effectively. I'm guessing it will be UCLA.
  • Utah State at #19 Louisiana Tech, 3 p.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: Here's something I'll bet you didn't know — Louisiana Tech has the top–ranked offense in the nation.

    OK, maybe you did know it, but even if Utah State knows it, it can't be very encouraging — especially since Louisiana Tech has won six of the last seven meetings between the schools.

    Tech (9–1) should not take the 8–2 Aggies lightly, though. That Bulldog offense will be taking on the 12th–best defense in the nation. And Tech's offense better come through because Tech has one of the worst defenses in the nation while Utah State's offense is 28th.

    I pick Utah State.
  • #22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big East: This series dates back to 1980, but it has really only been a regular thing since the teams became conference rivals.

    It's one of those series that goes in waves. Back in the 1980s, Rutgers was the regular winner, then they played a couple of times in what was, in hindsight, a transitional period in the 1990s (split decision), and Cincinnati has been the dominant program in the early 21st century (although Rutgers did snap a five–game Bearcat winning streak in the series last year).

    If it is true that defense wins championships — or, at least, wins games — Rutgers, with its 14th–ranked defense, should have no trouble with Cincinnati (98th in the nation in offense).

    Cincinnati's defense (#44) might be able to compete with Rutgers' offense (#33), but if the Rutgers defense forces Cincinnati to commit turnovers (and Rutgers has been particularly good at making the other team fumble the ball away this season), it really might not matter what happens when Rutgers has the ball.

    I pick Rutgers.
  • #23 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN: This really should be an entertaining game.

    Both offenses are in the Top 10. OSU's is slightly better, but it will have the challenge of facing Tech's 18th–ranked defense.

    Tech's three losses have been to ranked teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas). OSU has lost to Texas and K–State, too; OU is coming up next week. The Bedlam Series is always a big attention grabber in Oklahoma, and OSU has been good enough — and successful enough — in recent years (the Cowboys snapped an eight–game losing streak to the Sooners last year) to make folks in Oklahoma wonder if OSU can win two in a row against OU for only the seventh time in the last century.

    The Cowboys can't afford to be distracted by such thoughts this week — but my guess is they will. Texas Tech in what may well be regarded as an upset.
  • Iowa at #23 Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: This series is more than a century old, and Michigan has been in the driver's seat practically from the beginning.

    Well, Iowa did win the first encounter back in 1900 — but then won only one of the next 16. A pattern was set.

    Iowa fans are not accustomed to experiencing losing seasons, but the prospect is suddenly very real, now that the 4–6 Hawkeyes are on a four–game losing streak and must defeat both Michigan today and #16 Nebraska next week to finish 6–6.

    Michigan's offense hasn't been too horrifying, but the Wolverines' defense, which is 11th in the nation, has been.

    And it is because of the defense that I pick Michigan to win.
  • #25 Kent State at Bowling Green, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN3.com: These teams have faced each other every year since 1962, and Bowling Green has thoroughly dominated the series, 40–9.

    Only recently has Kent made a series of it, winning the last two and three of the last six.

    And Kent (9–1) might make it three in a row with its superior offense.

    But Bowling Green (7–3) has the sixth–best defense in the country. The Falcons have only given up 20 points or more three times — but they have lost on all three occasions.

    I tend to favor good defenses, especially when the weather turns cold — as it is sure to be in Ohio this weekend.

    Consequently, I pick Bowling Green.
Last week: 17–4

Season: 174–44