Showing posts with label Big 12. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big 12. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

The Aggies and the SEC



When the name of Texas Gov. Rick Perry surfaces in news reports in the other 49 states these days, it is most likely in connection with the recent announcement of his candidacy for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

But here in Texas, folks aren't concerned with his presidential ambitions. At least, not yet.

Maybe Texans have been a bit spoiled, but they aren't terribly impressed with the mere announcement that a Texan is seeking the presidency. Many have done that.

Come back and talk to them if and when Perry is the nominee. They should have plenty to say. He's been governor for a decade.

Barack Obama's immediate predecessor, of course, was elected governor of Texas twice, and his father, who wasn't born in Texas but represented one of the state's House districts in Congress at one time, was vice president for eight years and president for four. The Democrats even nominated a Texan for vice president.

Two other presidents in the 20th century were born in Texas — Dwight Eisenhower and Lyndon Johnson.

As I say, the presidential campaign isn't what folks in Texas are talking about right now. Their immediate concern, as always, is football — and lately they are interested in what the future holds for Texas A&M.

Perry's fate they will find out about in due course.

In recent days, word got out that A&M wanted to leave the Big 12 and join the Southeastern Conference, and journalists who were following Perry as he coyly made his way to South Carolina (where he sought to upstage the Iowa straw poll by announcing his presidential intentions) asked him about it.

Perry, as you may know, graduated from A&M in 1972. Currently, he probably has the highest profile of any A&M grad, and it is assumed by many that the governor has some special insights and/or connections to the decision makers in College Station.

If he does, though, Perry didn't mention it.

"As far as I know, conversations are being had," the Dallas Morning News quoted Perry as saying about the situation. "That's frankly all I know."

Turned out, Perry was right. Conversations were "being had."

And, apparently, because of those conversations, the decision makers in College Station jumped the gun a bit and announced that the Aggies were moving to the SEC. Problem was, the invitation hadn't been extended.

At least, not yet.

That was the encouraging part for Texas A&M, its student body and its supporters across the nation. The Aggies were not flatly rejected by the SEC — which, with five consecutive national championships divvied up between four schools, must be regarded as America's elite football conference.

The SEC left the door open for future expansion — which could very well include Texas A&M — after it carefully surveys the terrain. That says something, I think, about A&M and the SEC.

A&M's football program has struggled in recent years, but the Aggies seemed to be turning the corner last year, winning their last six regular–season games (including victories over Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas Tech and arch rival Texas). Some weaknesses were exposed in their Cotton Bowl loss to national power LSU, but, overall, the season left a good taste in the mouths of Aggies everywhere.

The 2010 season was the Aggies' most productive since 2006 and the closest they have come to a double–digit victory season since the 1990s. Preseason polls have A&M ranked among the nation's top programs. The sky seems to be the limit.

Well, except for one problem that I think played a key role in the collapse of the old Southwest Conference — and is probably contributing heavily to the impending collapse of the Big 12.

What is the problem, you may ask? It is the University of Texas' commitment to sucking all the oxygen out of any conference in which it competes.

UT did that in the old Southwest Conference, where it routinely pounded schools like TCU, Baylor, Rice and SMU, usually handled programs, like Texas Tech and Houston, that occasionally emerged as threats and usually repelled Arkansas and A&M, which were the most persistent challengers. It cast a huge shadow over the other teams in the conference with its vast financial resources, its massive and influential alumni base and its athletic prestige.

In fact, the only three games that made the Longhorns break a sweat most years were their contests with OU, A&M and Arkansas.

(That may have been the most shocking thing about legendary coach Darrell Royal's final season in 1976. In two decades as UT's coach, Royal never had a losing season — but, in 1976, Texas lost as many games as it won. Texas lost to Baylor and nearly lost to SMU — and was just another team when Royal departed.)

In the early 1990s, Arkansas made the decision to join the SEC. Perhaps athletic director Frank Broyles and the decision makers in Fayetteville realized that it was becoming the Longhorn Conference, and it was doomed to collapse under its own weight.

Maybe the decision makers in College Station are sensing the same thing in the Big 12 today. Nebraska and Colorado have already left the conference, and A&M may have realized that no conference will ever be big enough for Texas and even one other big–time program — let alone two or three or four.

The SEC is clearly big enough to accommodate several big–time programs, and it is open to the idea of adding more. A&M is on the SEC's list of prospects.

All it needs is to be patient for a year or two.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

SEC, Big 12 on Collision Course

If everything goes according to expectations, the SEC and Big 12 Conference championship games on Saturday will decide the participants in the national championship game in Miami on Jan. 8.

That seems to be a given in the SEC, where the top-ranked team in the BCS, Alabama, will play the #4 team in the BCS, Florida. That game will be played in Atlanta starting at 3 p.m. (Central) on CBS. Whichever team wins is expected to advance to the national championship game.

In the Big 12, the team that is ranked #2 in the BCS — Oklahoma — faces the team that is currently ranked 20th in the BCS — Missouri.

If Oklahoma wins the game, the Sooners are expected to play for the national title, but Missouri will not advance to Miami if the Tigers pull off the upset. If Missouri does beat Oklahoma, it is expected that Texas will face either Alabama or Florida in the national championship game.

That game will be televised at 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC.

Here's how things look:
  • Florida vs. Alabama — This appears to be shaping up as a confrontation between the Florida offense, led by defending Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, and the Alabama defense — although Tebow's numbers aren't as spectacular as they were last year.

    In the offensive categories,

    • Florida is 61st nationally in passing yards per game. Alabama is 97th.

    • Florida is 10th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Alabama is 22nd.

    • In points per game, Florida is third in the nation, scoring slightly more than 46 points per game. Alabama is 29th with an average of about 32 points per game.

    On the defensive side of the ball,

    • The two teams are neck and neck in points allowed per game. Alabama is third in the country, giving up 11.5 points per game. Florida is fourth in the country, yielding 12.3 points per game.

    • In rushing defense, Alabama is ranked second in the nation. Florida is ranked 12th.

    • In passing defense, Florida holds a narrow lead over Alabama. Florida is 17th in the nation and Alabama is 20th.

    • In total defense, Alabama is ranked third. Florida is ranked seventh.

  • What does all that mean? Well, on offense, Florida has the edge in the significant team categories, but both teams are strong running the ball. Tebow's passing seems to have helped the Gators build a big advantage in scoring — but don't overlook Tebow's ability to score TDs on the ground, which has helped the Gators' running game become one of the 10 best in the nation.

    On defense, both teams have been successful in preventing the other team from scoring and both teams have done a good job of stopping the run and the pass. Ultimately, Alabama's pass defense may hold the key. If the defenders can stop Tebow by land and by air, Alabama should win the game — but the Crimson Tide will still need help from its offensive unit.

    It may be helpful to look at some of the individual statistics.

    Penalties, for example.

    Florida has been penalized nearly twice as often as Alabama. Some ill-timed penalties could halt crucial Florida drives or breathe new life into Alabama drives.

    Being from opposing divisions, the two teams have few opponents in common. Alabama beat three teams from the SEC East — Georgia, 41-30; Kentucky, 17-14; and Tennessee, 29-9. Florida also beat those three teams by scores of 49-10, 63-5, and 30-6, respectively.

    Florida went 2-1 in its games against the SEC West, losing to Ole Miss, 31-30, and beating Arkansas, 38-7, and LSU, 51-21. Alabama went 3-0 against those teams, 24-20, 49-14 and 27-21.

    When comparing the results of the games against those six teams, Florida clearly performed better against Georgia, Kentucky and LSU. Alabama narrowly beat the Ole Miss team that barely beat Florida. And the outcomes against Tennessee and Arkansas were roughly the same for both Alabama and Florida.

    It's a close call. I've felt all season that Alabama was the best team in the country, and I'll stick with the Crimson Tide in this game.

    But I won't be surprised if it goes into overtime.

  • Missouri vs. Oklahoma — Let's look at the same categories in the Big 12 championship game — but because the BCS rankings put OU into the championship game and left Texas out, I compare the numbers of the two combatants with the numbers put up by the Longhorns:

    In the offensive categories,

    • Oklahoma and Missouri are neck and neck in passing yardage. Oklahoma is third in the country, Missouri is fourth. (Texas, by the way, is 11th.)

    • In rushing yardage, Oklahoma is 21st in the country. Missouri is ranked 46th. (Texas is 34th.)

    • In points per game, Oklahoma leads the nation with a 53.3 average. Missouri is fourth with a 45.0 average. (Texas is sixth, averaging 43.9 points per game.)

  • In the defensive categories,

    • Missouri is 58th in the nation in points allowed per game, giving up an average of 24.7. Oklahoma is 60th, surrendering 24.8. (Texas is 21st, yielding 18.6 points per game.)

    • Oklahoma is ranked 18th in rushing defense. Missouri is ranked 24th. (Texas is third.)

    • In passing defense, Oklahoma is 99th in the nation. Missouri is nearly the worst, ranked 117th. (Texas falls in between the two at 109th.)

    • In total defense, Oklahoma ranks 66th. Missouri ranks 92nd. (Texas is 50th).

    Based on those numbers, I expect a high-scoring game between these two schools. The most important factor appears to be the passing game, On the offensive side of the ball, both schools are in the top five nationally, but both passing defenses are among the worst in the nation.

    Oklahoma's had a pretty good running game this year while Missouri's has been adequate if unspectacular. Both defenses are in the top 25 against the run so, while the running game has been a traditional component of OU's offense, I don't expect it to be the key in Saturday's game.

    Oklahoma has forced more turnovers and committed fewer than Missouri. But the Sooners have been penalized twice as often as the Tigers. If you're talking about the turnovers when the game is over, OU probably won. But if you're talking about the penalties that were committed, Missouri may have pulled off the upset.

    How did they do against common foes? Well, like the SEC championship contenders, they each played three teams from the other school's division.

    Oklahoma was 3-0 against Big 12 North foes Kansas (45-31), Kansas State (58-35) and Nebraska (62-28). Missouri was 2-1 against those teams, losing to Kansas last weekend (40-37) but beating Kansas State (41-24) and Nebraska (52-17).

    The Sooners clearly played better against Kansas and won by a wider margin against Kansas State, but the Tigers actually had a wider margin against Nebraska than Oklahoma did.

    Against the Big 12 South, Missouri was 1-2, narrowly beating Baylor (31-28) and losing to Texas (56-31) and Oklahoma State (28-23). Oklahoma also lost to Texas (45-35) but beat Baylor (49-17) and Oklahoma State (61-41).

    Both teams lost to Texas, but the final point spread was closer in the Oklahoma game. OU beat Baylor by 10 times the margin Missouri did and beat Oklahoma State while Missouri lost to OSU. Again, the edge goes to Oklahoma.

    The numbers seem to favor Oklahoma.