A Play to Remember

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Thirty years ago today, I was here in Dallas, covering the Arkansas–SMU game for the newspaper for which I was working. I was only a few months removed from college, and covering a big football game like that at Texas Stadium was a huge deal for me.

That weekend, I stayed with my parents, who were planning to attend the game with some friends. And, because I was about to observe my birthday later that week, we had to do birthday type stuff during that visit, too — like eating cake.

My point is that there was a lot going on that day — and I completely missed seeing the biggest moment of the day until several hours after it happened.

When I saw it, though, I knew it was one of those clips that would live forever in the sports world.

I am talking about "The Play" — the multilateral kickoff return on the final play of the 1982 California–Stanford game. For more than a century now, that Bay area grudge match has been called the "Big Game," but it may never have been bigger or had a bigger finish that it did 30 years ago today.

Call it the "Big Play."

John Elway had already led Stanford down the field for the field goal that appeared to put Stanford in front for good, 20–19. Eight seconds remained on the clock, and Cal's announcer cryptically told his listeners, "Only a miracle can save the Bears now."

And a miracle is precisely what happened.

Stanford squibkicked the ball. After a lot of scrambling and at least four laterals, Kevin Moen took the ball into the end zone for the winning score, dodging members of the Stanford band who had been prematurely celebrating.

He couldn't dodge the trombone player, though. (Last month, Kelli Anderson shared her memories of being in Stanford's band that afternoon with SI.com's readers.)

Most of the people I have heard speak about fantastic finishes and the history of the Stanford–Cal game seem to agree that "The Play" was the most memorable of them all.

And it may have been.

It was certainly the most costly for Elway. It always seemed likely to me that "The Play" cost Elway the Heisman Trophy less than a month later to Georgia's Herschel Walker. Being a senior, he never had another chance to win it.

"The Play" also cost him what would have been the only bowl bid of his collegiate career; nevertheless, he was taken first by Baltimore in the draft, then traded to Denver, where Elway eventually led the Broncos to five Super Bowls — and two Super Bowl titles.

If most think "The Play" was one of the most exciting finishes ever in college football, then there are some, writes Vytas Mazeika in the San Jose Mercury News, who don't even think it is one of the top finishes in the history of the "Big Game."

But the Big Play was still big.

Oregon-Stanford Showdown Set

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College football fans may be feeling something of a letdown with the LSU–Alabama game reduced to a memory, but there's another major showdown this weekend — the Pac–12 battle between #3 Stanford and #6 Oregon.

Stanford is unbeaten and boasts the front runner for this year's Heisman Trophy. But the Ducks, who beat Stanford by three touchdowns last year, have only lost once — to currently top–ranked LSU on Labor Day weekend.

And, while Stanford may have the top candidate for the Heisman on its roster, Oregon's offense has been just as productive.

If there is one thing that is clearly in Stanford's favor, though — besides the fact that the game is being played in California — it is that Stanford's defense has been so much better — and, consequently, may prove to be the difference.

The winner will almost certainly be the champion of the Pac–12 North and will play USC, Arizona State or UCLA for the conference crown in December.

Idle: #7 Oklahoma

Thursday

• #10 Virginia Tech at #20 Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: This is the ninth time these teams have played each other, and the first eight games have followed a recognizable pattern.
  
  Georgia Tech won the first encounter, then Virginia Tech won the next two. Georgia Tech won their fourth encounter, then Virginia Tech won the next two. Georgia Tech won their seventh meeting, then Virginia Tech won last year.
  
  Consequently, Virginia Tech should win this time, right? But two of Georgia Tech's three victories over Virginia Tech have come when it was the host team, as it is this week.
  
  The numbers favor Georgia Tech, though. The Yellow Jackets have a far better offense, and their defense is close to Virginia Tech's.
  
  So I'm going to take Georgia Tech.


• #11 Houston at Tulane, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: Most teams can only wish they dominated another the way Houston dominates Tulane.
  
  The teams have been conference rivals since 1996. Houston has won 10 of their 14 meetings, including the last eight (in five of those games, UH has scored more than 40 points; Tulane has exceeded 30 points only once in that time — and lost on that occasion).
  
  Houston's best–in–the–nation offense is light years ahead of Tulane's. Tulane has a slight edge on defense, but it isn't nearly enough to make up for the gap on offense.
  
  I pick Houston to win.

Saturday

• Western Kentucky at #1 LSU, 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU: What a time for Western Kentucky to be making its first–ever trip to Baton Rouge — the week after LSU's dramatic overtime victory over Alabama.
  
  Not much else to say, really. It would be an enormously shocking upset if Western Kentucky won, but I don't think that will happen. I pick LSU.


• #2 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: Most people probably don't realize it, but these teams were playing each other long before the refugees from the old Southwest Conference (of which Texas Tech was one) joined the old Big Eight Conference to form the Big 12.
  
  They played each other for the first time during Franklin Roosevelt's first term as president. They even played in Japan once — during Ronald Reagan's last year in the White House.
  
  This will be the 39th meeting in the series and the 20th to be played in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13–3–3 against the Cowboys in Lubbock — but Oklahoma State won there last year, snapping a winless streak in Lubbock that went all the way back to the days of World War II, and Oklahoma State, with its third–ranked offense, looks too powerful.
  
  Historically, it would be much better for OSU to be playing this game in Stillwater, where the Cowboys are 10–8 against Texas Tech.
  
  Nevertheless, I pick Oklahoma State.


• #6 Oregon at #3 Stanford, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC: In addition to being the marquee matchup of the week (probably nationally, certainly in the Top 25), this is an old series that began a few days before Warren Harding was elected president.
  
  This is the 72nd meeting between these schools, and Stanford holds a decisive edge, 41–29–1 — but Oregon has been far more successful in their head–to–head meetings in recent years. In fact, Oregon has won nine of the last 11 and handed Stanford its only loss last year.
  
  The Pac–12 is known as an offense–oriented conference, and both teams have top–notch offenses. Oregon is seventh in the country, and Stanford is eighth.
  
  Thus, the key to victory may be with the better defense, and that would be Stanford, ranked 18th nationally while Oregon is 62nd.
  
  I'll pick Stanford to win at home.


• #4 Alabama at Mississippi State, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN: These schools have been playing each other since a few years after the turn of the last century, and Alabama almost always win.
  
  The Tide has rolled over the Bulldogs in both Tuscaloosa and Starkville, but the percentages are slightly more favorable for Mississippi State at home.
  
  I don't really think that will mean anything this time, but you never know. The SEC is the kind of conference in which the team with the worst record can beat the team with the best on, as they say, "any given Saturday."
  
  But Alabama won't be giving away anything this time, and I expect Alabama to win.


• TCU at #5 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on Versus: All three of the previous meetings between these schools came in bowls so all were neutral sites — technically.
  
  However, their first meeting was in the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl, which was played in Fort Worth, home of TCU. TCU won that game by a field goal, then lost the rematch in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, then won the third game in the next season's Fiesta Bowl.
  
  A brand–new chapter will be written in the series' history in Boise, and I pick Boise State, ranked 13th in both offense and defense, to prevail.


• Tennessee at #8 Arkansas, 5 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Tennessee has won 10 of its last 12 games against Arkansas, but those two losses came in their last three trips to Fayetteville.
  
  What's more, Tennessee is winless in five SEC games while Arkansas' only SEC loss came against Alabama in September.
  
  The Razorbacks have the 23rd–best offense in the nation (easily superior to Tennessee, ranked 97th). Tennessee's defense is 31st and may be able to keep pace with Arkansas' offense, but the 55th–ranked Arkansas defense appears more than capable of stopping the Volunteers.
  
  I'll take Arkansas.


• Wake Forest at #9 Clemson, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU: Clemson has owned Wake Forest in this series, winning more than 75% of the time, and the dominance has been even more pronounced in the games at Clemson, where the Tigers are 34–7 against the Demon Deacons.
  
  In fact, Wake Forest has won only one of the last eight games it has played in Clemson.
  
  Is there any reason to think Wake Forest will be competitive in this game? Well, no, not really. Clemson is 15th in the nation in offense, far ahead of Wake Forest. On defense, Wake Forest has the edge, but it is so slight that it is hard to see the Deacons' defense turning things around.
  
  I'll take Clemson.


• #19 Nebraska at #12 Penn State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN: These teams are meeting as conference rivals for the first time, but they are hardly strangers to each other.
  
  However, no one has really been talking about that.
  
  The first–ever conference clash between these two perennial powers has been overshadowed by the sex scandal that has rocked Penn State — and resulted in the firing of Joe Paterno — even though the Nittany Lions are the top contenders for the Leaders Division's berth in the Big Ten title game — and, with a record that is currently 8–1, could snare a spot in a BCS bowl game.
  
  That speaks volumes about the priorities in Happy Valley.
  
  There is no question that what has been unfolding at Penn State is a tragedy of immense proportions.
  
  These teams seemed to be permanently entrenched in the Top 10 when I was growing up, and they even played in the very first edition of the now–defunct Kick–off Classic in East Rutherford, N.J., but, oddly enough, they've never met in a bowl game.
  
  Nevertheless, this will be the 14th time they've played.
  
  Historically, the series is quite close. Nebraska has won six, Penn State has won seven. Typically, the home team wins. Nebraska is 4–2 at home against the Nittany Lions, and Penn State is 5–1 at home against the Cornhuskers.
  
  That would appear to favor the Nittany Lions — were it not for the distraction caused by this scandal.
  
  I don't know, at this point, who will be running the team on Saturday, but my personal guess is that Nebraska will buck the historical trend and win at Penn State.


• #13 Michigan State at Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2: Since 1990, Iowa is 10–5 against Michigan State and has won four of the last five.
  
  And a victory could put Iowa right smack in the middle of the Legends Division race. A loss would just about seal the currently 6–3 Hawkeyes' fate — and perhaps all but clinch the division title for the Spartans.
  
  Neither team has been terribly impressive on offense so defense may be decisive. If so, the advantage appears to belong to Michigan State, which is second only to Alabama in total defense. Iowa is 72nd in defense.
  
  I pick Michigan State to record a rare win in this series.


• #24 Auburn at #14 Georgia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS: South Carolina's loss to Arkansas last week put Georgia in the SEC East driver's seat, but the Bulldogs are hardly home free.
  
  Speaking of home, the defending national champion Auburn Tigers will be coming to visit on Saturday. They can't possibly win the national title again, but they are ranked and there is a lot of history in this series that doesn't work in Georgia's favor.
  
  For one thing, the home team loses more often than it wins. Auburn is 22–15–2 at Georgia, and Georgia is 14–12–2 at Auburn. (Between 1916 and 1958, the teams played on neutral fields 39 times.)
  
  However, the Bulldogs have been much better on both sides of the ball, so I will pick Georgia to win at home — even though the home team doesn't usually win this game.


• Florida at #15 South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on CBS: These teams have met 31 times, and Florida has won 23.
  
  But times may be changing in this series. South Carolina won at Florida last year for the first time — ever. Before that, Florida was 18–1 against South Carolina since 1964.
  
  This year's game is in Columbia, where the Gamecocks have beaten Florida four times, most recently on Nov. 12, 2005. But you have to go back to the 1930s to find the only time when South Carolina won consecutive games against the Gators.
  
  That's the kind of history South Carolina is chasing this weekend. And if the Gamecocks can do it — and Georgia loses to Auburn — South Carolina could well be on its way to its second straight SEC Championship game.
  
  Neither offense has been impressive, and both teams have Top 20 defenses. South Carolina has an edge in both categories so I'll pick South Carolina in what should be a competitive game.


• #16 Wisconsin at Minnesota, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on the Big Ten Network: The series that eventually became known as the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe is in its third century, but only slightly more than half of the games between these two schools have actually been for that particular prize.
  
  The rest of the time, I suppose, it has been about pride and bragging rights.
  
  The Badgers appear to be significantly better on both sides of the ball so I'll take Wisconsin.


• Texas A&M at #17 Kansas State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: There are two ways of looking at this series, I guess.
  
  On the one hand, it's been pretty competitive. The teams have played 14 times. A&M has won eight, Kansas State has won six.
  
  On the other hand, Kansas State has fared better — slightly — at home against the Aggies.
  
  The Aggies have a Top 10 offense (KSU's is 86th). The Wildcats are better on defense, but that really isn't saying much.
  
  If Texas A&M can manage to keep up its intensity in the second half — something the Aggies have struggled to do this year — I'll pick Texas A&M to win a mild upset.


• Washington at #18 USC, 2:45 p.m. (Central) on FX: Over the years, USC has had a decided advantage in this series.
  
  But, in recent years (well, the last two, anyway), it has been Washington that has been the winner.
  
  From 2002 to 2008, USC won every year, sometimes by ridiculous margins (56–0 in 2008, 51–24 in 2005) and sometimes by heart–stoppingly close ones (27–24 in 2007, 26–20 in 2006).
  
  Since the series began in the 1920s, USC has won more than 60% of the time. And I expect USC to get back on the winning track on Saturday.


• #21 Texas at Missouri, 11 a.m. (Central) on FX: Like most of the schools Texas has played, Missouri has compiled a losing record in its series with the Longhorns.
  
  This will be the 19th time the teams have played, and Texas has won all but three. But the bad news for Texas is that all three of those losses came in Columbia, where Saturday's game will be played.
  
  But Missouri hasn't beaten Texas since 1997 and has lost the last three games the two have played in Columbia. Since Missouri is heading for the SEC, this might be the Tigers' last chance to defeat Texas at home.
  
  The numbers say Missouri is marginally better on offense and Texas has a significant advantage on defense. That being the case, I will take Texas.


• #22 Michigan at Illinois, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC: These schools have been playing since 1898, and Michigan has won about three–quarters of the time — no matter where the game has been played.
  
  Michigan has a much better offense, and Illinois has a marginally better defense.
  
  I'll take Michigan to win.


• West Virginia at #23 Cincinnati, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC: This game will test Cincinnati's legitimacy as a Top 25 team.
  
  For one thing, the Bearcats are facing a formerly ranked team that would certainly like to return to the rankings — and beating a currently ranked team is probably the quickest route.
  
  For another, West Virginia has owned Cincinnati in this series. The Mountaineers have gon 7–1 in Cincinnati, but they lost there for the first time in their last visit (it was by only a field goal).
  
  This has the potential to be the most entertaining game of the weekend. West Virginia is better on both sides of the ball, and I think West Virginia will win the game.


• #25 Southern Miss at UCF, 7 p.m. (Central) on CBSSN: These teams have only been playing each other since 2005, but it's been a lopsided series in Southern Miss' favor.
  
  Southern Miss has won three in a row against UCF and is 5–1 overall. UCF is 0–3 at home in the series. That's dominant — albeit limited.
  
  Southern Miss has a much better offense, but UCF has a pronounced edge on defense, where it is ranked fifth.
  
  This will probably be considered an upset, but I'll take UCF.

Last week: 13–4

Season:160–37

Random Football Thoughts

A sure sign that the college football season is approaching is the release of USA Today's preseason poll.

That poll was released yesterday, and it ranks Oklahoma #1. USA Today's Jack Carey calls it a "salute ... to tradition," and I guess that is true.

There are aspects of the Top 10 that are very traditional. OU at #1, with Alabama #2, LSU #4, Florida State #5, Texas A&M #9 and Wisconsin #10, is reassuringly traditional.

But then there are the teams like Boise State (#7) and Oregon (#3), who have been major contenders in recent years but meant nothing when I was growing up. They were the schools that Oklahoma and Alabama would put on their schedules to pad their stats.

I only remember Stanford (ranked #6) being a factor in the national polls once when I was a child — and that was primarily due to the presence of the eventual Heisman Trophy winner on the roster.

And Oklahoma State (ranked #8) was nowhere when I was growing up.

So, while USA Today's preseason Top 10 does resemble the ones I remember from my formative years, it isn't exactly a flashback. Not completely. There are a few variations.

That's a good thing, I suppose. Every sport — team or individual — needs its standouts, the ones that are usually contenders for the championship. It encourages a sense of stability, of continuity.

The sense of drama is provided by those who emerge to challenge the establishment for the championship.

As I have mentioned here many times, I grew up in Arkansas and got my B.A. at the University of Arkansas. It's part of my DNÅ to fantasize about the Razorbacks playing for a national football title — and there have been times in my life when they have been contenders, but they've always fallen short.

As the 2011 season approaches, the rankings reflect a healthy respect for recent history. The Southeastern Conference, after all, has produced the last five national champions, and Oklahoma has played in four national championship games in the last 11 years — so it is reasonable to rank OU at the top and Alabama, a perennial contender long before the Crimson Tide won the national title year before last, just behind the Sooners.

Those two might very well end up facing each other for the national title in January.

But there are many challenges facing both schools before they can punch their tickets for the national title game.

In Oklahoma's conference, Texas is the only other school to win a national championship since the inception of the BCS, and Nebraska was the only other member of the conference to play for one (losing to Miami a decade ago).

Nebraska (#11 in USA Today's preseason poll) hightailed it to the Big Ten and, thus, won't stand in OU's way. But four other members of the conference could — Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, #21 Missouri and #24 Texas — as well as nonconference foe #5 Florida State.

Alabama probably faces an even stiffer challenge. Four of 'Bama's five divisional rivals in the SEC — LSU, #14 Arkansas, #19 Auburn and #20 Mississippi State — are in the Top 20. One of the three teams the Crimson Tide must face from the SEC's other division — Florida — is in the Top 25, and another (Tennessee) received some votes in the poll but not enough to be ranked.

Alabama also must face Penn State in the second week of the season, which figures to be an early test for both. If they are still as highly regarded in the polls at that time, the Nittany Lions should have something to prove when they play the Tide. They finished 7–6 last year but enter the 2011 campaign ranked 25th by USA Today.

Obviously, it is by no means certain that either team will play for the national title — but it might be a little easier for OU since the Big 12 won't be playing a conference championship game now.

No such luck in the SEC. The survivor of what figures to be an all–out battle between five talented teams (and one potential spoiler) in the SEC West will have to face the champion of the SEC East in a championship game, and the SEC East could produce Florida or Georgia or Tennessee (the schools that won all the division titles between 1992 and 2009) or possibly South Carolina, the school that won it last year.

Recent history suggests that the SEC champion will have an outstanding quarterback. Nine of the last 11 MVPs in the SEC's championship game were quarterbacks.

Recent history also suggests that the winner of the SEC West is not the team that won it the year before — or even the year before that. Four different schools have represented the SEC West in the championship game in the last five years. Arkansas was one of them, but the Razorbacks haven't been in the title game since 2006. They may be overdue.

Frankly, I think the Razorbacks might have been the favorites to win the SEC West this year if Ryan Mallett hadn't decided to skip his senior year. But he did, and now the Razorbacks will have to break in someone new.

In the past, that might be a big problem at other schools, but Arkansas was never overly dependent on its quarterback when I was growing up there. The offense was always centered around the running backs, and, if the quarterback could take the snap from center and hand off to the tailback without fumbling somewhere in between, he did his job satisfactorily.

Things are different now, though. Bobby Petrino, the current coach, is a devotee of the passing game, and a team definitely needs more than just a guy to take a snap and hand off the ball at quarterback when the passing game is as vital as it is in Petrino's playbook.

Mallett's replacement will have some growing pains as he works his way into the offense, but there are a lot of experienced players around him to ease the transition.

The Razorbacks could be the champions of the SEC West. They face Missouri State, New Mexico and Troy in their first three games, which should give the new quarterback a little time to get something of a handle on things.

Then Arkansas faces a back–to–back–to–back challenge — a trip to Alabama on Sept. 24, a date with Texas A&M here in north Texas on Oct. 1 and a home game with Auburn on Oct. 8. If the Hogs can get past those three, they will have a well–earned week off, followed by road games against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Both schools have had their moments in the sun in the last decade, but recent history suggests they will struggle in 2011.

If the Hogs are unblemished at that point, they will take an 8–0 record into their home game with South Carolina, followed by home games against Tennessee and Mississippi State, who may or may not be ranked by that time. Then the Razorbacks wrap up their regular season with a post–Thanksgiving trip to Baton Rouge to play LSU — who also may or may not be in the rankings by that time.

Clearly, it's a tough schedule for the Razorbacks, as it always is. Success in the SEC depends as much on good fortune and lucky breaks as it does on talent, and, if Arkansas can avoid major injuries, the Hogs just might be playing for the SEC title — and perhaps the national title.

Well, I can dream, can't I?