Mismatches Fill Top 25 Schedule

This week's Top 25 schedule seems to be loaded with mismatches.

We're well into the conference schedule now so most of the games are between familiar rivals. Unfortunately, the histories of many of these series do not suggest that the fans who pay for tickets will get to see competitive games.

On the other hand, the fans of most of the ranked teams should be confident that they will still be ranked next week.

• #1 Florida at South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS — The Gators are 16–1 against the Gamecocks since South Carolina began competing in the SEC in 1992. The one exception came in 2005, when South Carolina was the home team, as it is this year. Being at home won't help USC, though. I pick Florida.


• #2 Texas at Baylor — This series predates the teams' decisions to join the old Big Eight Conference back in the 1990s. They were rivals in the old Southwest Conference, too. The Longhorns have beaten Baylor 11 straight times, but the Bears' last victory came when they were the home team. That is also BU's only post–SWC win over UT. I don't expect the Bears to claim their second this weekend.


• #3 Alabama at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Alabama is 23–7 against Mississippi State in the 30 years since Bear Bryant's last national championship season with the Crimson Tide. But the Bulldogs took two of those wins in 2006 and 2007. Will they make it three out of four? Nah.


• #14 Utah at #4 TCU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSCSN — Since the SWC disbanded, TCU has played Utah six times and won only once, but that victory came in 2005, when TCU had the home–field advantage. If TCU is going to show the pollsters it deserves to be considered for the national championship, winning this game would be a step in the right direction. Being at home won't hurt, especially with the mayor of Fort Worth urging the folks there to wear purple to show their support for the Frogs. I'll take TCU.


• #23 West Virginia at #5 Cincinnati, Friday at 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — West Virginia is 8–2 against Cincinnati since 1987, but most of WVU's wins came many years ago. One of West Virginia's losses to Cincinnati came last year, but the Bearcats have never beaten the Mountaineers in Cincinnati. I think Cincinnati will end that skid this weekend.


• Idaho at #6 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU — Boise State has won 10 in a row against Idaho. Almost all of those wins have been lopsided — in fact, Boise has scored at least 42 points in all but one of them. As I see it, there are two chances that Idaho will snap that losing streak — slim and none.


• #7 Georgia Tech at Duke, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — In 14 meetings since 1995, Duke has won only once. Basketball games between the two schools are capable of providing some suspense. In football, my guess is that Georgia Tech will win easily.


• #13 Iowa at #8 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — After losing for the second straight time on Northwestern's field last weekend, Iowa has the unenviable assignment of traveling to Columbus, where they haven't won since 1991. In fact, Iowa's last win over Ohio State was in 2004, when the teams played in Iowa City. It ought to be one of the more entertaining college football games this week, but not if you're an Iowa fan. My pick is Ohio State.


• Notre Dame at #9 Pittsburgh, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Notre Dame has beaten Pittsburgh 12 of the 15 times they have met since 1988. But most of those wins came in the 1990s. Once regular opponents, the two schools don't play every year anymore, and Pittsburgh has recorded all three of its wins in the last 10 years, including a 36–33 win at South Bend last year. The Fighting Irish seem to be on the way up — they were in the Top 25 for awhile earlier this season — but I don't believe they will be able to stay with the Panthers.


• Stanford at #10 USC, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN — Recent history seems to favor USC. The Trojans have won six of their last seven encounters with Stanford — but I'm sure USC's coaches haven't forgotten the Trojans' one–point loss when Stanford paid them a visit in 2007. It was memorable for both schools, actually. It was one of only two losses for USC that year, and it was one of only four wins for Stanford. Stanford, by the way, is coming off a victory over Oregon — the same Oregon team that beat USC the week before. I'm inclined to say USC will win, but don't be surprised if Stanford puts up a fight.


• Louisiana Tech at #11 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU — Since the schools met in 1941, when Louisiana Tech was not yet a member of Division 1–A, LSU has beaten its in–state foe twice (in 2007, by a 58–10 score, and in 2003, by a score of 49–10). There really isn't much to say about this game except that it will be shocking if LSU loses. For that matter, it will be shocking if LSU doesn't win by a wide margin.


• #12 Houston at UCF — Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports says UH quarterback Case Keenum is deserving of the Heisman Trophy, but he acknowledges that Keenum doesn't have a prayer of winning it. Perhaps he would if he got more TV exposure, but that isn't the sort of thing that happens to Conference USA schools. And Dodd admits that Keenum, although ranked sixth in the nation in passing efficiency, plays in a conference that is not known for defense. Houston's opponent this week, UCF, became a Division 1–A program in 1996. The Knights have played Houston twice since then, winning in 2005 and losing in 2006. The Cougars weren't nationally ranked in those years, but they are this year, even if their quarterback won't walk away with the Heisman hardware in December. I expect Houston to grab its first win at UCF.


• #15 Miami (Florida) at North Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — The Tar Heels have won their last two meetings with the Hurricanes, and, overall, North Carolina is 3–2 against Miami since the 'Canes joined the ACC in 2004. But, this year, Miami is the team that is ranked. And I expect the 'Canes to win.


• Arizona State at #16 Oregon, 9:20 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Oregon holds a 13–7 edge over Arizona State since 1989. The Ducks rarely lose at home to the Sun Devils, and I don't think they will lose this time.


• Indiana at #17 Penn State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten — Since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993, the Nittany Lions have won 12 straight against Indiana. I don't believe the schools played each other prior to that so the Hoosiers are still looking for their first win over Penn State. They will still be looking for it after this weekend's trip to Happy Valley.


• Texas Tech at #18 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Since 2002, the home team has been the winner in this series. Based on that trend, OSU should win. And I'm inclined to say that the Cowboys will win. But I think it will be close. And, just for the record, I don't think the last seven games will have anything to do with it.


• #19 Arizona at California, 6 p.m. (Central) on Versus — Arizona holds a 6–4 advantage in its last 10 games against California. But Cal has won four of the last six, and the Bears have won the last three games the teams played in Berkeley. Can Arizona end the skid and stay in the Top 25? As long as the Wildcats stay focused on this week's opponent instead of looking ahead to their showdown with Oregon next week, I say they will.


• Michigan at #20 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten — Michigan is 8–2 against Wisconsin since 1997, but the teams have split their last four meetings. I'll go with Wisconsin — the team that is ranked — but only by a field goal or so.


• #21 Virginia Tech at Maryland — The schools have met five times in the last 20 years. The last time Maryland beat Tech was in 1990. This time, I think the 2–7 Terrapins will lose, and the margin might exceed double figures.


• #22 BYU at New Mexico, 1 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn. — Since New Mexico recorded a rare win over BYU in the 1980 season opener, Brigham Young has beaten New Mexico 25 of the 28 times they have played, including the last four meetings. Home wins have been rarer still. New Mexico hasn't beaten BYU at home since 1997. The skid will continue.


• #24 South Florida at Rutgers, Thursday at 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Rutgers has won three straight against South Florida. I think USF will end its slide.


• #25 Auburn at Georgia, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — This series has been about as close as a series can get in the last 20 years. Auburn holds a 10–9–1 advantage, but Georgia has controlled the series in the last three years. Auburn's last win at Georgia came in 2005, when the Tigers escaped with a 31–30 triumph. Based on the rankings, this is probably an upset special, but I'll pick Georgia to win.

Last week: 18–5.

Season: 148–34.