Sunday, November 29, 2009

Tiger and the Truth

As a journalist — and I'm talking about a real journalist, with college degrees and newsroom experience and everything — I find a lot of sense in what Dan Le Batard writes in the Miami Herald about the recent Tiger Woods incident.

"Truth," he writes, "is one of the many things that gets trampled today when boring facts can't keep up with the media's need to feed instantly and the public's appetite to be fed faster than that."

It's always been frustrating for journalists that news stories are often incomplete, that reporters must wait while facts are gradually disclosed and answers emerge.

It is even more frustrating today.

"We get news faster than we ever have," Le Batard writes. "We just can't trust it to be right."

So, as Le Batard observes, in the absence (so far) of a statement from Woods, the "news" we get tends to be gossip and speculation. And we're left with, as Le Batard writes, "what we kind of know."

It strikes me as yet another chapter in the evolving debate over the role of "citizen journalism." I have often written, particularly in my Freedom Writing blog, about the conflict between today's citizen journalism and traditional journalism. And nothing I have seen suggests to me that the so–called "citizen journalist" (whose only qualification to report the "news" often appears to be nothing more than the fact that he/she has access to a cell phone and a computer) is better prepared to inform the public on matters of substance than the journalist who went to college and covered general assignments for newspapers.

It has to do with more than the writing ability of the citizen journalist. It has to do with news judgment.

John McIntyre, former copy desk chief at the Baltimore Sun, mentions the Woods incident briefly in a blog entry titled "Not news." To a certain extent, he is correct. The fact that someone was involved in a single–vehicle accident a few feet from his own front door in which, apparently, no one was seriously injured likely would not, in the opinions of most news editors, be newsworthy.

But what makes this case unusual is the fact that it wasn't Joe Six–Pack who was involved in the accident. It was Tiger Woods, the #1 golfer in the world and one of the most recognizable people on the planet.

The fact that Woods is known to millions, obviously, is going to affect the newsworthiness of the story. And news judgment is certainly something that one learns and develops. In my experience, it is seldom, if ever, something that one is born with.

It is a topic about which I wrote about last summer, as the media (both traditional and nontraditional) got worked up about the memorial service for Michael Jackson.

Actually, the day that Jackson died is a perfect example of the tug–o–war that goes on between speed and accuracy today. On that afternoon back in June, the citizen journalists were quick to report that Jackson had died, but CNN refused to say anything more than it could confirm, which was that Jackson had been taken to the hospital. Once CNN got someone in authority to confirm that Jackson had, indeed, died, it joined the media chorus proclaiming his passing and scrambling to get comments from those who knew him, who worked with him or who merely listened to his music.

I must admit that I appreciated CNN's insistence upon confirming such a development before running with it — even though its competitors did not seem to hesitate to get the word out. What if they had been wrong? Once the world breathed its sigh of relief that Jackson had not died after all, how many news organizations would have been sued for jumping to an unsupported conclusion?

Well, Woods needs to bite the bullet and speak to investigators. After postponing meetings on Friday and Saturday, Woods apparently canceled an interview that was scheduled for today. He made a statement on his web site accepting responsibility but offering no other details.

The citizen journalist may be too awed by Woods' celebrity status to pursue the matter any farther. But the trained journalist, who must answer to his editors, will not let it die that easily. And, while it may not seem that way on the surface, that is a good thing for Woods.

I understand this is embarrassing for him, but will rampant, unchecked rumors be less so?

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Curiouser and Curiouser



I'm trying to get a handle on the matter involving golfer Tiger Woods, and I don't seem to be doing a very good job.

At first, I guess I was something of a victim of misleading information. It was yesterday afternoon that I heard, on a local sports radio station, that Woods was in "serious condition" following a late–night auto accident outside his Florida home.

Subsequent reports indicated that Woods had been in a "minor accident," which made me wonder, how does one sustain "serious" injuries in a "minor" accident?

That question was later answered, by the local sports radio guys, who said it was SOP when someone was involved in an auto accident and had to be transported to a hospital by ambulance to say that the patient was in serious condition — even if, as appears to be the situation here, the person who was transported suffered nothing more serious than lacerations.

Or did he?

Woods' wife, Elin Nordegren, says she used a golf club to break one of the windows of Woods' SUV and pulled him out of the vehicle. Apparently, he lapsed in and out of consciousness while waiting for police, and then emergency medical personnel, to arrive on the scene.

Woods' condition does not seem to be the issue, though. From what I've heard, he was treated at the hospital and released.

From the first report, I've heard it continually mentioned that alcohol was not a factor in the accident. Then, today, I heard reports that the accident was not due to some sort of domestic issue.

Those seem like answers to questions I haven't heard anyone ask.

Maybe it's routine to suspect alcohol and/or a domestic dispute when an auto accident happens in the early hours of the morning. And providing those answers upfront is a way of cutting to the chase.

(Well, I've often heard that nothing good happens after midnight.)

But answering those unasked questions suggests to me that there may be a history of one or the other, which might lead investigators to wonder about their potential influence.

I haven't heard reports that Woods has had problems with alcohol in the past. Of course, there is a first time for everything.

And I haven't heard many reports that Woods and his wife have squabbled in the past. But at least one web site — TMZ.com — says this was a domestic dispute.

But that just underscores a problem that is identified by Gary Van Sickle for Golf.com — until Woods tells his story, most people will get their information on this case from media that specialize in entertainment, not news gathering.

Perhaps we will get some answers when we hear Woods' side of things. But investigators are having trouble interviewing the golfer.

This is getting — as Alice often said during her Adventures in Wonderland"curiouser and curiouser."

Mike Lupica writes, in the New York Daily News, that Woods owes the public an explanation of what happened.

There may be, as Lupica writes, a "simple explanation" for what happened — but "[w]e sure don't have it yet."

Curiouser and curiouser.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Wild Card Races Take Shape

The NFL has played slightly more than three–fifths of its schedule, but, if the season was over, the division winners in the AFC would be Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New England and San Diego. The wild card teams would be two of these three — Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and/or Denver.

In the NFC, the division winners would be Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans and Arizona. The wild card teams would be two of these three — Philadelphia, the New York Giants and/or Green Bay.

The catch is that each team still has six games to play and a lot of things can happen. Important games will be played this week between the Giants and Broncos, the Colts and the Texans, the Steelers and Ravens and the Patriots and Saints.

As the season plays out, some of the teams will fall out of the running while others will emerge from the pack. It's the same story every year. And, right now, it's probably safe to say the Colts, Vikings and Saints will be in the playoffs. But who will join them?

Clark Judge handicaps the wild card races for CBSSports.com. We'll start getting a handle on them this week.

THURSDAY
  • Green Bay (6–4) at Detroit (2–8) — It's traditional for the Lions to play on Thanksgiving Day, but they've lost their last five Thanksgiving games. On the plus side for Detroit, the last time the Lions won on Thanksgiving was against this year's opponent, the Green Bay Packers, on Nov. 27, 2003. The Packers blanked the Lions, 26–0, when they met at Lambeau Field in October, and it could happen again. No other team in the NFL has given up as many points as the Lions, and few have scored less. The Packers have won eight in a row against Detroit, and their last loss to the Lions came on Sept. 11, 2005. I predict a Packers victory, but I don't look for the Lions to be shut out again.

  • Oakland (3–7) at Dallas (7–3) — The Raiders may have the worst team in the NFL. They definitely have the worst offense, yet they managed to pull off a 20–17 upset of the AFC North–leading Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Cowboys, meanwhile, may have more talent on their roster than anyone else, yet they barely beat the Washington Redskins, a team that has lost to Detroit and Kansas City and barely slipped by St. Louis. I think the Cowboys should beat the Raiders by at least 10 points. Will they? Well, that's another question ...

  • New York Giants (6–4) at Denver (6–4) — Mark Kiszla writes, in the Denver Post, that the Broncos have come undone. After the beating they took from the Chargers last weekend, it's a point that is hard to dispute. They do have a chance to redeem themselves by beating the Giants. The winner will remain in the wild–card race. The loser will face a much steeper climb. It's funny how quickly the terrain shifts in the NFL, isn't it? Earlier this season, it was an upset to pick the Broncos to win. Then it became an upset to pick them to lose. What is it now? I'm not sure, but I'll go with Denver by a single point.
SUNDAY
  • Miami (5–5) at Buffalo (3–7) — The quest for a new coach continues in Buffalo, where the organization is making overtures to Bill Cowher and Mike Shanahan. On the field, Miami trounced Buffalo, 38–10, when they met in early October. It will be colder in Buffalo on Sunday, but I think Miami will win again ... by a point or two.

  • Arizona (7–3) at Tennessee (4–6) — Cedric Golden of the Austin American–Statesman writes that Tennessee quarterback Vince Young is a winner after leading the Titans to their fourth consecutive win. Will he continue to look like a winner after playing the Cardinals? In an upset special, I say he will.

  • Indianapolis (10–0) at Houston (5–5) — Things would look a lot better for the Texans if they had beaten the Titans on Monday night. Nevertheless, they only lost by three points when they played Indianapolis on the road earlier this month. In fact, the Colts have won their last four games by a total of 10 points. I expect another close one, but I'll pick the Colts to prevail again.

  • Cleveland (1–9) at Cincinnati (7–3) — Cincinnati won by three points when the teams played in Cleveland in early October. The Browns, though, are so bad they lost to Detroit last week. Keep in mind, no one lost to Detroit last year — and only the Redskins had lost to the Lions this year. Until Sunday. Unless Cincinnati is overconfident, the Bengals should win handily.

  • Carolina (4–6) at New York Jets (4–6) — The winner will retain a slim shot at a wild card slot in the playoffs. The loser might as well close up shop for the winter. The Jets are 2–3 at home; ironically, the Panthers are 2–3 on the road. The Jets have been better on both sides of the ball, but, in their defense, the Panthers have been playing in the same division with New Orleans, one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. I'll pick the Jets. No special reason. Do I need one?

  • Tampa Bay (1–9) at Atlanta (5–5) — The Falcons are better on offense and defense, and they're unbeaten at home. D. Orlando Ledbetter writes, in the Atlanta Journal–Constitution, that good quarterbacks are "torching" the Falcons' secondary. That would be good news for Tampa Bay if the Bucs had a good quarterback. But they don't. I'll take Atlanta.

  • Washington (3–7) at Philadelphia (6–4) — The last time these teams met in Philadelphia, the Eagles got off to a fast start but ultimately lost the game when they were outscored by 20 points in the last three quarters. In fact, the Redskins have won the last two times they traveled to Philly. The last time the Eagles beat the 'Skins at home was on Nov. 12, 2006. This year, the Eagles have had a far better offense, but the Redskins have enjoyed a modest edge in defense. Washington is winless in five road games, though, and if Washington couldn't win at Detroit, I have no reason to think the Redskins can win at Philadelphia. I pick the Eagles by a touchdown — at least.

  • Seattle (3–7) at St. Louis (1–9) — Is there anything even remotely intriguing about this game? If there is, I can't see what it is. It is highly unlikely that the Seahawks can reel off six straight wins and somehow secure a playoff berth. The Rams — who happen to be the only NFC team that hasn't won a home game yet — can't even finish above .500. Well, someone has to win. I predict it will be the Seahawks.

  • Kansas City (3–7) at San Diego (7–3) — The Chargers have beaten the Chiefs four straight times, but their last loss to Kansas City came at home on Sept. 30, 2007. I don't think the Chiefs will duplicate that achievement on Sunday. Their only road win all season came at Washington, and the Redskins clearly are not playoff–bound. The Chargers, on the other hand, do appear to be headed for the postseason. And this game is likely to resemble their first meeting earlier this season, when San Diego rolled to a 37–7 triumph at Arrowhead Stadium. I expect the Chargers to extend their winning streak to six games.

  • Jacksonville (6–4) at San Francisco (4–6) — Before the season began, I predicted the 49ers would be in the playoffs. Their chances of winning the NFC West appear to be slim now, but a wild card slot remains a possibility, especially if they can beat the Jaguars. That's a tough assignment. The Jags are on a three–game winning streak, and they seem to be positioned to win four of their last six games, which should propel them into the playoffs. But if San Francisco can take advantage of the fact that the 49ers have a winning record at home and Jacksonville has a losing record on the road, it might give the 49ers the momentum they need. Can it be done? Maybe, but I don't believe it will. I pick Jacksonville.

  • Chicago (4–6) at Minnesota (9–1) — Mike Mulligan says, in the Chicago Sun–Times, that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is a head case. That doesn't suggest confidence that he can lead a revival in the final six games of the year. Meanwhile, Mark Craig writes, in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, that Brett Favre is looking like MVP material. Maybe, but I think he's helped by all the talent around him. Don't get me wrong. I've always said Favre had talent. But he is 40 years old. Nature did not intend for any man to play quarterback at that age. Some have tried. Few have succeeded. Still, I think the Vikings can beat the Bears by at least 10 at home. We'll see what happens when they travel to Soldier Field in late December.

  • Pittsburgh (6–4) at Baltimore (5–5) — The Steelers expect Ben Roethlisberger to play on Sunday. And that's good news for Pittsburgh. But he's the AFC's fifth–rated passer, while Baltimore's Joe Flacco is the AFC's sixth–rated passer. Consequently, a modest advantage for Pittsburgh — which might be negated by the fact that Big Ben is believed to have suffered a "mild" concussion on Sunday that could have been worse than anyone thought. It's been a month since Pittsburgh's last impressive win against a team that was clearly on the rise (Minnesota), and the Steelers have lost their last two games. Baltimore, meanwhile, nearly beat Indianapolis last weekend (while Pittsburgh was losing to Kansas City). I'll take the Ravens.
MONDAY
  • New England (7–3) at New Orleans (10–0) — This is only one of several challenging games remaining on the schedule for the Saints, which leads me to believe that New Orleans will not finish the season undefeated. They play at Atlanta on Dec. 13 (which may not look too challenging on the surface, until you realize that, in a season in which the Saints have beaten most foes by double digits, they only beat the Falcons by 35–27 at home earlier this month), then six days later they play Dallas. I'll pick the Saints to beat the Patriots, but only because they're the home team.
Last week: 13–3.

Season: 113–47.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Rivalries on Menu for Thanksgiving

A handful of teams have regular season finales to play next week, but most of the attention will be focused on conference championship games — especially the one between Alabama and Florida. It will be a rematch of last year's game, which Florida won, 31–20.

If you need something else to whet your appetite, Gene Menez writes, for SI.com, that the Alabama–Florida game could be a "high stakes Heisman game" for Alabama's Heisman candidate, Mark Ingram.

In the meantime, we have plenty of rivalries being played out this week.

Five members of the Top 25 — all from the Big Ten and Pac–10 conferences — have no games to play this week. Eighth–ranked Ohio State, #10 Oregon, #11 Penn State, #13 Iowa and #18 Oregon State are idle.
  • Florida State at #1 Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS — This is a series that has its ebbs and flows. The Gators have won the last five meetings with the Seminoles, but they lost five of the previous six. Unless Florida loses its concentration in anticipation of next week's SEC championship game with Alabama, the Gators should make it six wins in a row.

  • #2 Texas at Texas A&M, Thursday at 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Kirk Bohls wonders, in the Austin American–Statesman, if the Texas–A&M rivalry has lost its allure. It's a fair question. The Longhorns have beaten the Aggies in seven of their last 10 meetings, but the Aggies prevailed the last time the teams met in College Station. Considering that Texas is scoring an average of 42 points per game and the Aggies are giving up 31 points a game, I expect Texas to win the game by at least two touchdowns.

  • #3 Alabama at Auburn, Friday at 1:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS — Alabama snapped a six–game losing streak to Auburn with a shutout victory last season. It seems likely to me that this game will be decided by defense. The Tigers have actually outscored the Crimson Tide — barely — but Auburn has yielded nearly three times as many points as Alabama. I say Alabama will win by about six points.

  • New Mexico at #4 TCU, 12 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn. — Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star–Telegram anticipates a BCS berth for TCU after this weekend. And who can blame him? The numbers aren't good for New Mexico. The Horned Frogs have won four in a row against the Lobos since both have been members of the MWC. New Mexico hasn't beaten TCU since 1997, when TCU finished 1–10 and New Mexico went 9–4. This year, TCU is 11–0 and New Mexico is 1–10. I expect TCU to win by a substantial margin.

  • Illinois at #5 Cincinnati, Friday at 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC — My guess is that the 3–7 Illini are about ready for the season to be over — but they still have a Dec. 5 date with Fresno State. Unbeaten Cincinnati still has another game to play on Dec. 5 as well (against Pittsburgh), but the Bearcats should have plenty of motivation. I pick Cincinnati to win.

  • Nevada at #6 Boise State, Friday at 9:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — Boise State has won nine in a row against Nevada, and Nevada hasn't beaten Boise State on the road since 1997. This year, the winner wins the WAC crown. The Broncos still have a game to play against New Mexico State on Dec. 5, but a win over the Wolf Pack will give them the tiebreaker, even if they lose to NMSU. Nevada, on the other hand, will wrap up an undisputed WAC title with a win over Boise State. Which will it be? Both teams have scored a lot of points, but Boise has had the stiffer defense. That — and home field — give Boise State the edge.

  • Georgia at #7 Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Georgia had a seven–game winning streak against Tech until losing last year, 45–42, and Georgia Tech hasn't beaten Georgia at home since 1999. But Tech has had a stronger offense and defense than Georgia this year so I'll go with Tech. Party like it's 1999.

  • #9 Pittsburgh at West Virginia, Friday — In the last 10 years, this has been a competitive series. Each team has won five times since 1999. And no team has won more than two in a row in that time. Historically speaking, that should be bad news for the Panthers since Pittsburgh has won the last two games against West Virginia. The game features the Big East's top two rushers (Pitt's Dion Lewis and West Virginia's Noel Devine) and top two passers (Pittsburgh's Bill Stull and West Virginia's Jarrett Brown). Pitt has a better defense so I'm thinking the Panthers will break with recent tradition and win that third straight game.

  • #12 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 11:30 a.m. (Central) on FSN — David Ubben writes, in The Oklahoman, that OU coach Bob Stoops doesn't think it is fair to single out one player to blame for the team's offensive woes. And that's true. But, as far as Oklahoma football fans are concerned, it's irrelevant. This week's game is the renewal of an intrastate rivalry that is known as "Bedlam." As I understand it, the name originated during a wrestling match between the two schools. OSU has a huge edge in wrestling, but "Bedlam" has come to be associated with all athletic competition between the schools, and OU holds a 79–15–8 advantage over OSU in football, including victories in the last six contests. This will be the first time in 12 years that the Cowboys are ranked and the Sooners are not. OSU's last win in Norman was a 16–13 upset in 2001. It's always tough for visitors to win in Norman, but I don't think it will be an upset this time. I pick the Cowboys to win.

  • #14 Virginia Tech at Virginia, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — No matter what happens, writes Jay Jenkins in the Charlottesville Daily Progress, Virginia coach Al Groh is likely to be dismissed after the game is over. Perhaps the best he can hope for is to go out with a stunning win. Virginia has only beaten Virginia Tech once in the last 10 games (2003), but the Cavaliers were the home team that time, too. Tech's Ryan Williams has been rushing for 123 yards a game. He will present a significant challenge for Virginia's defense, which seems to be challenged by just about everything. I'll go with Tech.

  • #19 Utah at #15 BYU, 4 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn. — Since 1979, BYU leads the series, 19–11, but much of that advantage was accumulated in the 1980s. The series has been pretty evenly divided in the last 20 years. Utah won last year, snapping a two–game losing streak. It's possible that the winner will share the MWC title with TCU, but even if TCU loses to New Mexico, the Horned Frogs already hold the tiebreaker over both Utah and BYU so, realistically, this game will decide the conference runnerup. BYU's Max Hall leads the MWC in passing, Utah's David Reed leads the league in receiving and the schools bring the MWC's top two rushers (Utah's Eddie Wide and BYU's Harvey Unga) to their game. I'll take BYU to win.

  • #16 Clemson at South Carolina, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN — In the last 20 years, Clemson has built a 15–5 advantage over South Carolina. If South Carolina wins, it will be an upset, but the 6–5 Gamecocks have been competitive, even though they have lost four of their last five. Earlier this season, they beat Ole Miss and they played respectably against the teams that will square off for the SEC crown next week. And South Carolina hasn't lost a nonconference game all year. Clemson, meanwhile, has won six in a row, but the Tigers' thoughts may well be on next week's ACC title game against Georgia Tech, a team that beat the Tigers by a field goal in September. I'm going to predict that Clemson will be distracted and South Carolina will improve its record in its quest for a better bowl bid.



  • Arkansas at #17 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — In the battle for the Golden Boot, Arkansas has beaten LSU in their last two meetings, but LSU holds a 10–7 edge since the Hogs joined the SEC in 1992. On paper, it looks like a competitive game. The Razorbacks are averaging 38 points a game, but LSU's done a better job of keeping opponents from scoring. One thing that is hard to factor in is the effect of LSU's loss to Ole Miss last Saturday — in which LSU completed a Hail Mary pass in the final seconds, putting the Tigers in a position to kick a dramatic game–winning field goal with one second remaining. But astonishingly poor game management at the end kept them from even making the attempt, and Ole Miss won, 25–23. Gary Laney of the Baton Rouge Advocate writes that there is plenty of blame to go around. That may be so. It sure was an ugly finish if you're an LSU fan — and Clay Travis writes, for FanHouse.com, that LSU coach Les Miles is a "wild card on the sideline." Well, the Tigers already were out of the running for the SEC championship game so will there be a hangover this week? I'm inclined to say no. As an Arkansas alum, it pains me to say this, but I'll give a very narrow edge to the home team.

  • Rice at #20 Houston — Rice's win over Houston last year snapped a three–game losing streak, but I expect Houston to be back on top this year. The 9–2 Cougars are scoring 42 points a game (with the league's leading passer, Case Keenum) and the 2–9 Owls are giving up 40 points a game. To make matters worse for Rice, the Owls are only scoring 18 points a game. Rice may hope for a repeat of Houston's stunning loss to UTEP last month, but don't count on it.

  • #21 Miami (Florida) at South Florida, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — This is only the second meeting between the two schools — Miami won, 27–7, in 2005. I have no reason to believe South Florida will win the second encounter.

  • UCLA at #22 USC, 9 p.m. (Central) on FSN — UCLA dominated the series in the 1990s, but (with the exception of the 2006 game) USC has dominated the series in this decade. USC won't be in the Rose Bowl this year, but I'll pick the Trojans to win the crosstown rivalry for the third straight time.

  • #23 Nebraska at Colorado, Friday at 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — When I was a teenager and a young adult, Nebraska routinely beat Colorado every year. In those days, Nebraska was a fixture in the Top 10. The Cornhuskers haven't finished a season in the Top 10 since 2001, but they have continued to dominate the series with the Buffaloes, holding a 13–6–1 advantage since 1989. Nebraska will play Texas for the Big 12 title on Dec. 5, and Brian Christopherson reports, in the Lincoln Journal Star, that coach Bo Pelini insists that the team's "full focus" is on Colorado this week. A win over Texas might give the 'Huskers a chance to crack the Top 10, but first they have to get past this week's trip to Boulder. Can they do it? Yes.

  • #24 North Carolina at North Carolina State, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — This intrastate rivalry has been competitive in the last 10 years, but there have been times, like the decade of the 1990s, when North Carolina has beaten State on a regular basis. The numbers from this season are both intriguing and telling. State has scored more points than North Carolina, but UNC's defense has been much better. Season records aside, State has won the last two meetings, and North Carolina has lost two of its last three games at State's Carter–Finley Stadium in Raleigh. All things considered, I will pick North Carolina to win — but only by about two or three points.

  • #25 Ole Miss at Mississippi State, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network — This is the 106th meeting of what is the 10th–longest uninterrupted series in America. Since 1927, it has been known as the "Battle of the Golden Egg" (also known as the "Egg Bowl"), and Ole Miss holds a 60–39–6 advantage, although it's been pretty competitive in the last 10 years. Since 1999, the Rebels are 6–4 against the Bulldogs, but they have lost four of their last five games in Starkville. Even so, I can't imagine that the 8–3 Rebs are going to lose to the 4–7 Bulldogs. I'll give MSU credit for being at home, which might make the game closer than it ordinarily would be, but I expect Ole Miss to win by a touchdown or so.
Last week: 18–4.

Season: 183–43.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

The Start of the Ten-Year War



Forty years ago tomorrow, Bo Schembechler concluded his first regular season as head coach at Michigan with a 24–12 victory over top–ranked Ohio State that sent the Wolverines to Pasadena, Calif., for a Rose Bowl date with USC. The loss ended a 22–game winning streak for the Buckeyes.

The Wolverines lost that New Year's Day game, but the win over Ohio State was the first shot fired in what became known as the "Ten–Year War" between the schools. Ohio State and Michigan dominated the Big Ten in the 1970s. No other school represented the conference in the Rose Bowl in that decade.

Without a doubt, Michigan fans would have liked to have seen a repeat of that outcome on this, the eve of the 40th anniversary of Schembechler's landmark victory, especially since "The Game," as it is known, was being played in Ann Arbor, where Schembechler recorded that triumph. But it was not to be.

Ohio State already was assured of a berth in this season's Rose Bowl, although the Buckeyes' opponent has yet to be determined. Michigan, meanwhle, needed a victory simply to be bowl eligible. The Buckeyes won, 21–10, ending Michigan's football season and spoiling the occasion for Wolverines fans.

But nothing can spoil the memory.

Stan the Man Turns 89 Today



Today, Stan Musial is 89 years old.

Stan the Man was truly one of a kind. He had the kind of career that most ballplayers can only dream of. He played 22 seasons of professional baseball — FDR was in the White House when Musial's career began and JFK was in the White House when his career ended. He played in more than 3,000 games, hit 475 home runs and had a batting average of .331.

It's been nearly half a century since Stan played for the Cardinals, but they still love him in St. Louis. There's a statue that stood outside the old Busch Memorial Stadium — and now, I think, stands in front of the new Busch Stadium — of Stan in his batting stance.

My best friend and I once posed in front of that statue. If you look to the right, you can see what we looked like about 20 years ago!

Musial was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1969, the first year he was eligible. Last summer, Musial gave the ball to Barack Obama to make the ceremonial first pitch at the All–Star Game at the new Busch Stadium. Musial seemed to be healthy, but he remained seated in the golf cart in which he was riding through the pregame festivities. The Cardinals' fans didn't seem to mind. They cheered for him as if he had just hit a game–winning home run

I agree with veteran sportswriter Jayson Stark, who wrote of Musial, "I can't think of any all–time great in any sport who gets left out of more who's–the–greatest conversations than Stan Musial."

He played in the same era as some of baseball's most elite talents — Ted Williams, JoeDiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays — and deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with any of them.

Anyway, today is his day.

Happy birthday, Stan.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

It's Time to Get Back to Business in the NFL

We're getting down to business in the NFL, starting this week.

The bye weeks are over. The teams that lead their divisions will have their eyes on the playoff prize, and one showdown should break a tie atop one of the divisions.

Likewise, it's accurate to say that no one is completely eliminated from playoff contention yet, but the teams that are 1–8 and 2–7 are getting close. Unless such teams are playing each other (and we do have one matchup between 1–8 teams this week), it's safe to assume those teams are not mentally engaged and are likely to be beaten — perhaps severely.

On the other hand, more than a month remains in the NFL season. Teams with 4–5 or 5–4 records are still in the hunt. Whether they will perform appropriately may well depend on how successful their coaches are at motivating them.

And for some of those coaches, motivating teams in the .500 range will be a considerable challenge.

TONIGHT
  • Miami (4–5) at Carolina (4–5) — If Ronnie Brown was the primary reason you were going to tune in to the Miami–Carolina game, you might as well make alternative plans. The Dolphins' running back is out with a foot injury, and his status for the rest of the season is uncertain. However, both teams are in the hunt for one of the two wild card slots in their respective leagues so there is something on the line. It's a longshot in both cases, but the way is probably a little clearer for Carolina. I'll give the edge to the Panthers on that basis.
SUNDAY
  • Pittsburgh (6–3) at Kansas City (2–7) — Kansas City wide receiver Dwayne Bowe has been suspended for four games for "violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances." Currently, he ranks 22nd in the AFC in receiving. Kent Babb writes, in the Kansas City Star's blog on the Chiefs, that Bowe's suspension "casts a long shadow on the future" for the Chiefs. But,even if he was going to be in the lineup, the Chiefs wouldn't have a chance of beating the Steelers, who are sure to be surly after their loss to Cincinnati last Sunday. Even the probable absence of Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu doesn't seem likely to help Kansas City's chances, although having Bowe with Polamalu out of the lineup wouldn't have hurt.

  • Seattle (3–6) at Minnesota (8–1)The Vikings' owner says he wants Brett Favre back in uniform next season — and it isn't hard to understand why. Minnesota is off to an 8–1 start with its 40–year–old quarterback, who "is on pace statistically for one of his best seasons," writes Sean Leahy of USA Today. It's hard to argue the point, but I would just caution NFL fans to wait and see what happens in December. It was last December, you may recall, when the Favre–led Jets, seemingly cruising into the playoffs, crashed and burned. The Vikings seem to have more talent than the Jets did, but there are a few hurdles the Vikings must clear next month, including two dates with the Bears, a trip to Arizona and home games against Cincinnati and the Giants. This week, though, the Vikings should prevail and remain unbeaten at home.

  • Buffalo (3–6) at Jacksonville (5–4) — Buffalo fired its head coach Tuesday after what has been a disappointing start for a team that felt the playoffs were within reach when it signed Terrell Owens back in the spring. An interim coach, defensive coordinator Perry Fewell, has been named. The Buffalo News reports some big names are being considered in the search for a new head coach, and that the last seven games of the season amount to an ongoing audition for Fewell. Can the Bills win their first game for their new — possibly temporary — head coach? Call me a skeptic. I pick Jacksonville.

  • Atlanta (5–4) at New York Giants (5–4) — All things considered, this game looks pretty even so I'll give the nod to the home team. The Giants only trail the Cowboys by a single game. The Falcons trail the Saints by four games. New York has less ground to make up, therefore more motivation.

  • New Orleans (9–0) at Tampa Bay (1–8) — Bob Fortus of the New Orleans Times–Picayune acknowledges that Tampa Bay is 1–8 but warns that "the Buccaneers are beginning to play better." Tampa Bay, he points out, beat Green Bay two weeks ago and narrowly lost to Miami last week. All true. But this week the Bucs are playing Drew Brees and the undefeated New Orleans Saints. That's a completely different matter. I expect New Orleans, which has scored more points than any other NFL team, to win by at least 10 points.

  • Cleveland (1–8) at Detroit (1–8) — There are four one–win teams in the NFL, and those lucky fans in Detroit get to see two of them play this weekend. Detroit has the better offense, Cleveland has the better defense. Which will prevail? Personally, I rate it a tossup, but I'll give a very narrow edge to the home team.



  • Washington (3–6) at Dallas (6–3) — There was a time when the Dallas–Washington rivalry was one of the best in football. In this weekend's game, the Cowboys have to be considered the favorites, but Dallas is coming off a poor performance at Green Bay while the Redskins recorded a win over the once–dominant Denver Broncos, which lends some credibility to Tim Cowlishaw's assertion in the Dallas Morning News that the Cowboys have a tough road ahead of them. I expect Dallas to win, but that's mainly because they're feeling the pressure of having the 5–4 Eagles and Giants in hot pursuit. I'll take the Cowboys — who suddenly aren't looking as good as they did before their trip to Lambeau Field.

  • San Francisco (4–5) at Green Bay (5–4) — Back in the mid–1990s, the Packers ended the Joe Montana–Steve Young championship era with a 27–17 playoff victory over the 49ers — and began the Packers' revival under Brett Favre. Lately, both teams have reverted to afterthoughts in the NFL, but the winner of this game will continue to entertain dreams of the 2009 postseason. I'll pick Green Bay.

  • Indianapolis (9–0) at Baltimore (5–4) — The Ravens struggled to beat the Browns on Monday. The Colts, meanwhile, turned back a pretty good New England team. I'll take the Colts, who are now USA Today's top–ranked NFL team.

  • Arizona (6–3) at St. Louis (1–8) — This game looks decidedly like a mismatch. If the Rams have anything in their favor, it is the fact that they're playing at home. Even so, I think Arizona should win by at least a touchdown.

  • New York Jets (4–5) at New England (6–3) — After all their success in the past decade, you might think there would be little to complain about with the Patriots. But Albert Breer writes, in the Boston Globe, that "[t]here is a category in which the offenses in Detroit, Jacksonville, and Washington outrank the Patriots. A pretty important one, too." Which one is it? It's red zone scoring opportunities. The Pats are 25th in the NFL. Red–zone offense was important in the game against Indianapolis, Breer points out. The Colts scored 100% of the time when they were in the red zone. The Patriots scored 50% of the time. Will it be a factor against the Jets? I'm inclined to think it won't. I pick New England to win the game.

  • Cincinnati (7–2) at Oakland (2–7) — I'm starting to think I misjudged the Bengals. They might have their act together after all. They've swept the Steelers (Paul Daugherty writes, in the Cincinnati Enquirer, that they "Steeler–ed the Steelers" in Pittsburgh Sunday), and they're perfect in AFC North play with only one division game (at home against pitiful Cleveland) left on their schedule. On top of that, only two (possibly three) of their remaining opponents appear to have enough firepower to give them much trouble. The Raiders are not one of those two (maybe three) teams. I pick the Bengals to stay unbeaten on the road.

  • San Diego (6–3) at Denver (6–3) — Mark Kiszla writes, in the Denver Post, that "[t]he Broncos have the smell of a team in crisis." I suppose that is so. The Broncos were once 6–0, but they've lost three straight, the most recent being a 10–point loss to Washington. This week Denver plays San Diego, with the winner taking the lead in the AFC West. Actually, it would be appropriate for Denver to end this skid with a win over the Chargers. San Diego was the last team Denver beat, back on Oct. 19. But will the Broncos beat the Chargers, who haven't lost since that first match with the Broncos? Clearly, both teams have been going in different directions since that day, and I see no reason to predict they will reverse course. Kiszla has concluded that quarterback Kyle Orton's career in Denver is done if he isn't in the huddle on Sunday. Orton missed practice this week due to some torn ligaments in his left ankle. So long, Kyle. I pick San Diego.

  • Philadelphia (5–4) at Chicago (4–5) — Statistically, the Eagles are having a better season, but the Bears are 3–1 at home while the Eagles are 2–2 on the road. Both teams have two–game losing streaks. I give the edge to the Eagles.
MONDAY
  • Tennessee (3–6) at Houston (5–4) — After starting with six straight wins, the Titans are starting to look more like last year's team with three straight wins. Houston won the first meeting between the teams back in September, but the margin was only three points. I'm going to pick Tennessee to return the favor. At 3–6, the Titans aren't out of the running for a wild card spot yet.
Last week: 9–6.

Season: 100–44.

Arizona, BC Are My Upset Picks

When we reach this point in the college football season, it becomes more difficult to pick an upset or two. The schedules are almost played out, most of the bowl–bound teams are known and the ones that aren't headed for the postseason are mostly eager to get it over with.

I'm picking a couple of "upsets," though — Arizona over #11 Oregon and Boston College over #25 North Carolina. I'm not sure if they would count as upsets except for the rankings.

There are a few good rivalries on this week's schedule. Ohio State–Michigan certainly has a lot of tradition behind it, but it doesn't have the appeal it once did. In fact, Christine Brennan of USA Today writes that it is "a shell of its former self." Ohio State does bring a 9–2 record into the game, but Michigan, at 5–6, is no longer the national power it was. In fact, the Wolverines will have to win merely to become bowl eligible.

Another rivalry game this weekend is between LSU and Ole Miss. When it comes to rivalries, people talk about LSU's rivalries with Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas, but Ole Miss is LSU's truly traditional SEC rival. Only recently has the game been given a name — "Magnolia Bowl" — and a trophy that is awarded to the winner.

They call the California–Stanford game the "Big Game," but it seems highly unlikely the game will produce the kind of dramatic finish the 1982 edition did.

Fifth–ranked Cincinnati, #7 Georgia Tech, #9 Pittsburgh and #21 USC are off this week.
  • Florida International at #1 Florida — If Florida International beats Florida, it would have to be considered one of the greatest upsets of all time in any sport.

  • Kansas at #2 Texas, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Texas has won all seven games with Kansas since the teams have been in the same conference. Sometimes the Longhorns have scored 50 points or more. The last time the teams played in Austin, Texas won, 66–14. I think it's a safe bet to pick Texas to win. Need something else to encourage you to watch? A victory will make Texas' Colt McCoy the winningest quarterback in college football history.

  • Chattanooga at #3 Alabama, 11:21 a.m. (Central) on SEC Network — The only way Alabama can lose this game is if the Crimson Tide is too distracted by thoughts of the upcoming rivalry game with Auburn and the SEC championship game with Florida the week after that. If Alabama takes care of business, it should be a lopsided victory for the Tide.

  • #4 TCU at Wyoming, 1 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn. — Since joining the MWC in 2005, TCU is 3–1 against Wyoming, but the Frogs lost by a field goal the last time they visited Laramie. The Cowboys need one more win to become bowl eligible, but I don't think they'll get it against TCU. The unbeaten Frogs are focused on more significant matters. TCU should win the game.

  • #6 Boise State at Utah State, 8:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — Boise State has won eight in a row against Utah State, frequently scoring 40 points or more. I have no reason to think they won't roll up another big margin this time.

  • #8 Ohio State at Michigan, 11 a.m. (Central) on ABC — This may be one of the most bitter rivalries in college football, but it's been a bit one–sided in recent years. Ohio State has won the last five meetings, and I would be surprised if the Buckeyes don't make it six in a row.

  • #10 LSU at Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS — The Rebels snapped a six–game losing streak to the Tigers last year. Ole Miss has put a lot more points on the board this season than LSU, but the Tigers' defense has allowed fewer points than the Rebels' defense has. I'll predict that LSU will win the game, but I'd be more confident of that prediction if they were playing in Baton Rouge.

  • #11 Oregon at Arizona, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — It isn't absolute, but Oregon can just about count on a Rose Bowl date with Ohio State with a win over Arizona. Winning the Pac–10 is more difficult for the Wildcats, but it can be done. I think Arizona may be a little more motivated — in part because they narrowly missed being in the Top 25 following their loss to unranked California. And I sort of feel the Wildcats are due, even though they won the last time they played host to Oregon. They've lost eight of their last 10 encounters, which suggests that Oregon has the series under control. But I'm going to take Arizona as my upset special.

  • #12 Penn State at Michigan State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Penn State has won three–quarters of its games with Michigan State since joining the Big Ten in 1993, but the Spartans have won four of the last six in East Lansing. I think the Nittany Lions are positioned to win this year's game. It may be by a single score, but the Lions' defense should be up to the task of stopping Michigan State.

  • Colorado at #13 Oklahoma State, tonight at 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Colorado has won seven of its last 10 games against Oklahoma State, but there is an important factor to bear in mind: When OSU is enjoying a winning season and Colorado is on the schedule, OSU wins the game. When OSU is in the throes of a losing season and Colorado is on the schedule, Colorado wins. This is clearly an "up" year for OSU. Therefore, the sensible thing to do is to predict an Oklahoma State win. And so I shall.

  • #14 Wisconsin at Northwestern — The schools have split their last 10 meetings right down the middle. The home team has won the last four contests. Will Northwestern make it five? Possibly, but I'm going to pick Wisconsin to win — by a very slender margin.

  • Minnesota at #15 Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN — Iowa is 7–3 in the last 10 games against Minnesota. What's worse for Minnesota is that the Gophers haven't beaten the Hawkeyes on the road since 1999. I think Iowa will improve its home winning streak over Minnesota by a margin of, oh, five or six points.

  • North Carolina State at #16 Virginia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU — In the last 20 years, the two schools have met half a dozen times, and Tech owns a 3–2–1 edge. The home team has won the two encounters since 2004, and both games were decided by a single score. I think the margin will be wider in this game, maybe 10 points, but I think the home team (in this case, Virginia Tech) will win again.



  • California at #17 Stanford — The Cal–Stanford game is known as the "Big Game," and there probably was never a bigger finish in any of the games in the series than the one in 1982. In recent times, Cal has won six of the last seven meetings, but the exception was two years ago, the last time Stanford was the host school. I'll pick Stanford to win — and the Cardinal won't have to duplicate Cal's astonishing return from 1982 to do it, either.

  • Air Force at #18 BYU, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSCSN — BYU has won five straight against Air Force. The last time Air Force won was also the last time the Falcons beat the Cougars at Provo (in 2003). I think the Cougars will keep the streak going.

  • Virginia at #19 Clemson, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — In the last 20 meetings between the schools, Clemson is 11–8–1, but Virginia has tended to be competitive. This year, the teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Clemson is 7–3 and headed for a bowl. Virginia is 3–7. I pick Clemson to win by 10 points or more (not unlike the Tigers' 13–3 win over the Cavaliers last year).

  • #20 Oregon State at Washington State — Oregon State has won the last two time it has faced Washington State, rolling up huge margins both times. The streak continues.

  • Memphis at #22 Houston — The teams have met 10 times since 1978, and Memphis holds a 6–4 advantage. Against a couple of intriguing conference foes, both teams have lost to Central Florida this season, but Memphis beat UTEP the week after UTEP beat Houston. Since that time, the teams have been going in opposite directions. Memphis has lost four in a row since that victory while Houston had a five–game winning streak before last weekend's loss at UCF. The Cougars are unbeaten at home, and they're ranked. I'll take Houston.

  • San Diego State at #23 Utah, 3 p.m. (Central) on Versus — Utah has dominated the series in the last 10 meetings, winning eight. Utah has won the last three, including a 63–14 triumph on the road last season. I expect the Utes to win again.

  • Duke at #24 Miami (Florida), 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU — Miami has won five in a row against Duke, the last four since Miami joined the ACC in 2004. The schools played occasionally as nonconference foes, but Duke hasn't beaten Miami since 1976, several years before the Hurricanes won their first national title. I don't think Duke will end its skid this weekend. I expect Miami to win by at least a touchdown.

  • #25 (tie) North Carolina at Boston College, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — Boston College has lost two straight to North Carolina since joining the ACC in 2005. BC actually beat North Carolina in 2004, in the Continental Tire Bowl. Before that, it had been 20 years since their last meeting (also a BC victory). They both have 7–3 records so both should be playing in bowls when the regular season is over, but North Carolina has no chance of playing for the ACC title. Boston College does, although it is slim. BC needs to win its last two games and hope that Clemson loses to Virginia. I don't expect Clemson to lose, but the Tigers won't kick off their game until after BC's game is over so BC will still have plenty of motivation. I'll take Boston College as an upset special.

  • Kansas State at #25 (tie) Nebraska, 6:45 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Nebraska has won four straight against Kansas State. Nebraska leads KSU by ½ a game in the Big 12 North, but the Cornhuskers can clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game with a win. On the other hand, KSU can clinch a share of the North Division title — and the tiebreaker — with a win. The likely opponent will be #2 Texas. KSU's offense might be tougher to defend, but Nebraska's defense has been even stingier than Texas'. I'll pick Nebraska to win at home.
Last week: 17–5.

Season: 165–39.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

A Classic Weekend in the NFL

This week's schedule has renewals of the Colts–Patriots and Cowboys–Packers rivalries, and a divisional showdown between the Bengals and Steelers. And the Chiefs and the Raiders will meet in a rivalry that is half a century old.

For NFL fans, it should be a classic weekend.

It might not be exactly a throwback to old days. Dallas' game at Green Bay won't be another "Ice Bowl." Kansas City's game at Oakland won't have playoff implications. But it seems to have all the ingredients for an entertaining weekend.

TONIGHT
  • Chicago (4–4) at San Francisco (3–5) — If the 49ers are going to make a run for the playoffs, this is the time to start it. I don't know if they will be able to overtake the Cardinals, but San Francisco needs to end its four–game losing streak and restore some confidence. I think the 49ers will do that this week.
SUNDAY
  • Atlanta (5–3) at Carolina (3–5) — Atlanta is favored by 1½ points. I think the Falcons will win, but it might not be by much more than that.

  • Tampa Bay (1–7) at Miami (3–5) — The Dolphins are favored by 10 points. I think that's all you really need to know — except that Tampa Bay isn't going to have a two–game winning streak when the weekend is over.

  • Detroit (1–7) at Minnesota (7–1) — There are a few mismatches on this week's schedule, and this looks like one of them. If the Vikings don't win big, I will be very surprised.

  • Cincinnati (6–2) at Pittsburgh (6–2) — The Steelers are favored by a touchdown. Their defense is looking more like the defense that carried them to the Super Bowl last year, and I expect this to be a low–scoring contest, but I think the margin will be closer than seven points. I'll go with the home team, in part because I just can't see the Bengals seizing control of the division nearly two weeks before Thanksgiving.

  • Buffalo (3–5) at Tennessee (2–6) — In spite of the offseason acquisition of Terrell Owens, the Bills haven't really established themselves as a passing team. They rank 30th in the NFL. Too bad for Buffalo because the Titans have the worst pass defense in the NFL. I'm going to pick Buffalo. No special reason. But if the Bills' investment in Owens is going to reap any dividends, this is the time for it.

  • Denver (6–2) at Washington (2–6) — Washington's only wins so far this season have come against the St. Louis Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In September, the Redskins became the first team to lose to Detroit since 2007. And, so far, they're the only team to lose to Kansas City this season. I think Denver ought to be favored by more than 3½ points. I'm all but certain that the Broncos will win by 10 points or more.

  • New Orleans (8–0) at St. Louis (1–7) — This looks like a huge mismatch. The Rams may be the home team, but I don't think they will be able to keep up with the Saints.

  • Jacksonville (4–4) at New York Jets (4–4) — The Jets are favored by a touchdown. I think they might win by more than that.

  • Kansas City (1–7) at Oakland (2–6) — Over the years, this has been one of the NFL's most bitter rivalries. Overall, the Chiefs lead, 53–46–2 (which includes a 2–1 edge in the postseason), but the visiting team has won the last six meetings, including Oakland's 13–10 triumph at Kansas City a couple of months ago. Will the visiting team win again this Sunday? I'm going to say no, but, really, does it matter to anyone other than Chiefs and Raiders fans?

  • Seattle (3–5) at Arizona (5–3) — Arizona is favored by 8½ points. I still don't think the Cardinals will return to the Super Bowl, but I'm beginning to think they might repeat as division champs. I'll go with Arizona.

  • Dallas (6–2) at Green Bay (4–4) — When these teams played for the NFL title in 1967, the game was known as the "Ice Bowl." It's still something of a rivalry, more than 40 years later. The weather won't be that severe this Sunday, although it will be about 30 degrees cooler than the Cowboys have been accustomed to here in Dallas. I'll pick the home team, simply because the Packers are more desperate for a win right now.

  • Philadelphia (5–3) at San Diego (5–3) — This is a crucial game for both teams. They both trail their divisions' leaders by a single game. I'll give the Chargers a narrow edge.

  • New England (6–2) at Indianapolis (8–0) — Brady vs. Manning in what may turn out to be a playoff preview. In a league that is filled with long–standing, traditional rivalries, this is one of the newer ones, and ESPN's Jeffri Chadiha ranks it fourth behind such storied rivalries as the Cowboys–Redskins, Raiders–Steelers and Cowboys–49ers. The Colts have won the last three meetings, and they haven't lost at home to the Patriots since 2003, although it has been four years since one of their games was decided by more than a single score. It might be another close one, but I'll take the Patriots to win this time. Why? Call it a hunch.
MONDAY
  • Baltimore (4–4) at Cleveland (1–7) — Even though the Browns are the home team, I just can't pick them to beat the Ravens. Baltimore remains in contention for the playoffs. Cleveland can start thinking about the offseason.
Last week: 8–5.

Season: 91–38.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Mismatches Fill Top 25 Schedule

This week's Top 25 schedule seems to be loaded with mismatches.

We're well into the conference schedule now so most of the games are between familiar rivals. Unfortunately, the histories of many of these series do not suggest that the fans who pay for tickets will get to see competitive games.

On the other hand, the fans of most of the ranked teams should be confident that they will still be ranked next week.
  • #1 Florida at South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS — The Gators are 16–1 against the Gamecocks since South Carolina began competing in the SEC in 1992. The one exception came in 2005, when South Carolina was the home team, as it is this year. Being at home won't help USC, though. I pick Florida.

  • #2 Texas at Baylor — This series predates the teams' decisions to join the old Big Eight Conference back in the 1990s. They were rivals in the old Southwest Conference, too. The Longhorns have beaten Baylor 11 straight times, but the Bears' last victory came when they were the home team. That is also BU's only post–SWC win over UT. I don't expect the Bears to claim their second this weekend.

  • #3 Alabama at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Alabama is 23–7 against Mississippi State in the 30 years since Bear Bryant's last national championship season with the Crimson Tide. But the Bulldogs took two of those wins in 2006 and 2007. Will they make it three out of four? Nah.

  • #14 Utah at #4 TCU, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSCSN — Since the SWC disbanded, TCU has played Utah six times and won only once, but that victory came in 2005, when TCU had the home–field advantage. If TCU is going to show the pollsters it deserves to be considered for the national championship, winning this game would be a step in the right direction. Being at home won't hurt, especially with the mayor of Fort Worth urging the folks there to wear purple to show their support for the Frogs. I'll take TCU.

  • #23 West Virginia at #5 Cincinnati, Friday at 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — West Virginia is 8–2 against Cincinnati since 1987, but most of WVU's wins came many years ago. One of West Virginia's losses to Cincinnati came last year, but the Bearcats have never beaten the Mountaineers in Cincinnati. I think Cincinnati will end that skid this weekend.

  • Idaho at #6 Boise State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU — Boise State has won 10 in a row against Idaho. Almost all of those wins have been lopsided — in fact, Boise has scored at least 42 points in all but one of them. As I see it, there are two chances that Idaho will snap that losing streak — slim and none.

  • #7 Georgia Tech at Duke, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — In 14 meetings since 1995, Duke has won only once. Basketball games between the two schools are capable of providing some suspense. In football, my guess is that Georgia Tech will win easily.

  • #13 Iowa at #8 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — After losing for the second straight time on Northwestern's field last weekend, Iowa has the unenviable assignment of traveling to Columbus, where they haven't won since 1991. In fact, Iowa's last win over Ohio State was in 2004, when the teams played in Iowa City. It ought to be one of the more entertaining college football games this week, but not if you're an Iowa fan. My pick is Ohio State.

  • Notre Dame at #9 Pittsburgh, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Notre Dame has beaten Pittsburgh 12 of the 15 times they have met since 1988. But most of those wins came in the 1990s. Once regular opponents, the two schools don't play every year anymore, and Pittsburgh has recorded all three of its wins in the last 10 years, including a 36–33 win at South Bend last year. The Fighting Irish seem to be on the way up — they were in the Top 25 for awhile earlier this season — but I don't believe they will be able to stay with the Panthers.

  • Stanford at #10 USC, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on FSN — Recent history seems to favor USC. The Trojans have won six of their last seven encounters with Stanford — but I'm sure USC's coaches haven't forgotten the Trojans' one–point loss when Stanford paid them a visit in 2007. It was memorable for both schools, actually. It was one of only two losses for USC that year, and it was one of only four wins for Stanford. Stanford, by the way, is coming off a victory over Oregon — the same Oregon team that beat USC the week before. I'm inclined to say USC will win, but don't be surprised if Stanford puts up a fight.

  • Louisiana Tech at #11 LSU, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPNU — Since the schools met in 1941, when Louisiana Tech was not yet a member of Division 1–A, LSU has beaten its in–state foe twice (in 2007, by a 58–10 score, and in 2003, by a score of 49–10). There really isn't much to say about this game except that it will be shocking if LSU loses. For that matter, it will be shocking if LSU doesn't win by a wide margin.

  • #12 Houston at UCF — Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports says UH quarterback Case Keenum is deserving of the Heisman Trophy, but he acknowledges that Keenum doesn't have a prayer of winning it. Perhaps he would if he got more TV exposure, but that isn't the sort of thing that happens to Conference USA schools. And Dodd admits that Keenum, although ranked sixth in the nation in passing efficiency, plays in a conference that is not known for defense. Houston's opponent this week, UCF, became a Division 1–A program in 1996. The Knights have played Houston twice since then, winning in 2005 and losing in 2006. The Cougars weren't nationally ranked in those years, but they are this year, even if their quarterback won't walk away with the Heisman hardware in December. I expect Houston to grab its first win at UCF.

  • #15 Miami (Florida) at North Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — The Tar Heels have won their last two meetings with the Hurricanes, and, overall, North Carolina is 3–2 against Miami since the 'Canes joined the ACC in 2004. But, this year, Miami is the team that is ranked. And I expect the 'Canes to win.

  • Arizona State at #16 Oregon, 9:20 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Oregon holds a 13–7 edge over Arizona State since 1989. The Ducks rarely lose at home to the Sun Devils, and I don't think they will lose this time.

  • Indiana at #17 Penn State, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten — Since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993, the Nittany Lions have won 12 straight against Indiana. I don't believe the schools played each other prior to that so the Hoosiers are still looking for their first win over Penn State. They will still be looking for it after this weekend's trip to Happy Valley.

  • Texas Tech at #18 Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Since 2002, the home team has been the winner in this series. Based on that trend, OSU should win. And I'm inclined to say that the Cowboys will win. But I think it will be close. And, just for the record, I don't think the last seven games will have anything to do with it.

  • #19 Arizona at California, 6 p.m. (Central) on Versus — Arizona holds a 6–4 advantage in its last 10 games against California. But Cal has won four of the last six, and the Bears have won the last three games the teams played in Berkeley. Can Arizona end the skid and stay in the Top 25? As long as the Wildcats stay focused on this week's opponent instead of looking ahead to their showdown with Oregon next week, I say they will.

  • Michigan at #20 Wisconsin, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten — Michigan is 8–2 against Wisconsin since 1997, but the teams have split their last four meetings. I'll go with Wisconsin — the team that is ranked — but only by a field goal or so.

  • #21 Virginia Tech at Maryland — The schools have met five times in the last 20 years. The last time Maryland beat Tech was in 1990. This time, I think the 2–7 Terrapins will lose, and the margin might exceed double figures.

  • #22 BYU at New Mexico, 1 p.m. (Central) on The Mtn. — Since New Mexico recorded a rare win over BYU in the 1980 season opener, Brigham Young has beaten New Mexico 25 of the 28 times they have played, including the last four meetings. Home wins have been rarer still. New Mexico hasn't beaten BYU at home since 1997. The skid will continue.

  • #24 South Florida at Rutgers, Thursday at 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Rutgers has won three straight against South Florida. I think USF will end its slide.

  • #25 Auburn at Georgia, 6 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — This series has been about as close as a series can get in the last 20 years. Auburn holds a 10–9–1 advantage, but Georgia has controlled the series in the last three years. Auburn's last win at Georgia came in 2005, when the Tigers escaped with a 31–30 triumph. Based on the rankings, this is probably an upset special, but I'll pick Georgia to win.
Last week: 18–5.

Season: 148–34.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Unbeatens Won't Tumble This Week

There are some important games on the schedule this week — Baltimore–Cincinnati, Arizona–Chicago, Houston–Indianapolis, Dallas–Philadelphia, Pittsburgh–Denver. Some are divisional clashes. Some are not.

I guess, at this stage of the season, the question is whether the undefeated teams will remain undefeated. Only two NFL teams are still undefeated — Indianapolis and New Orleans. I don't know if either team will be unbeaten when the playoffs begin, but I feel confident that both teams will still be unbeaten when the day is done.
  • Baltimore (4–3) at Cincinnati (5–2) — A Baltimore win combined with a Pittsburgh loss on Monday night will create a three–way tie in the AFC North. And it would make the AFC North one of the most closely watched divisions as pro football moves into the second half of the season. The Ravens are 3–point underdogs, but I'm picking them, anyway, which makes Baltimore a modest upset special.

  • Miami (3–4) at New England (5–2) — This has the potential to be a big game for the Dolphins — if they win. But I don't think they will win. And neither do the oddsmakers, who have installed the Patriots as 10½–point favorites. New England is headed for the playoffs. The Dolphins are not. I pick the Patriots to win.

  • Arizona (4–3) at Chicago (4–3) — This is an important game for both teams. The Cardinals lead their division, but they could be sharing that lead with San Francisco if they lose and the 49ers beat Tennessee. The Bears are 2½ games behind Minnesota (which has a bye this week) and tied with Green Bay (which has to be considered the favorite to beat Tampa Bay). Chicago is unbeaten at home, Arizona is unbeaten on the road. Something has to give. I don't think the weather will be a factor. For Nov. 8, it should be fairly pleasant in Chicago (low 70s and sunny). I'll take Arizona.

  • Washington (2–5) at Atlanta (4–3) — The Falcons have been struggling in recent weeks, but today they have the cure for what ails them. The truly awful Redskins are coming to town. Atlanta should cover the 10–point spread they have been given.

  • Green Bay (4–3) at Tampa Bay (0–7) — Back in the days when these teams competed in the same division, their matchups were dubbed the "Bay of Pigs" contests. They meet less frequently now that they are in different divisions. The Bucs have had a week off to prepare for this game, and they're playing at home. Will that make a difference? No. I pick Green Bay.

  • Houston (5–3) at Indianapolis (7–0) — This is a key showdown in the AFC South. The Texans will trail the Colts regardless of the outcome — by 1½ games if they win, 3½ if they lose — but that is the short–term view. Houston has a bye next week, then the teams will meet in a rematch the Sunday after Thanksgiving. Momentum will probably be with the Texans if they win (only a date with the currently 1–6 Titans lies between their games with the Colts). Can they do what three other teams have failed to do in Indianapolis — namely win? I don't think so.

  • Kansas City (1–6) at Jacksonville (3–4) — The Jaguars are a longshot to make the playoffs, but the Chiefs should be almost a guaranteed win for Jacksonville. The Jags are picked by 6½ points. Sounds about right.

  • Carolina (3–4) at New Orleans (7–0) — Common sense says the Saints have to lose sometime. But the oddsmakers, who have made New Orleans a 13½–point pick, clearly don't believe it will happen this week. Considering that Carolina only narrowly beat Washington and lost by 11 to Buffalo a couple of weeks ago, it's hard for me to picture Carolina being the team that hands New Orleans its first setback of the season. Stranger things have happened, I suppose. But my gut tells me the Saints will win.

  • Detroit (1–6) at Seattle (2–5) — Last week, the Lions became the first team to lose to the pathetic St. Louis Rams this season. And that was a home game for Detroit. The Lions have been even worse on the road. I pick Seattle to cover its 10–point spread.

  • Tennessee (1–6) at San Francisco (3–4) — A year ago, the Titans went 13–3 and won the AFC South. What a difference a year makes. Today, it is hard to imagine Tennessee making the playoffs — and any thoughts of overtaking the 7–0 Indianapolis Colts to repeat as division champs went out the window weeks ago. The 49ers, on the other hand, are still in the race in the NFC West. They're at home. And they're favored by four points. Tennessee may put up a scrap, but I expect San Francisco to win.

  • San Diego (4–3) at New York Giants (5–3) — Giants fans don't want to think that their team will lose four straight games, but let's look at the teams they have beaten so far this year. Four of their five wins are against teams (Washington, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland) who have a combined record of 5–24. Their other win was a narrow victory over Dallas. To be fair, the Chargers haven't been much better, but they're riding a winning streak right now so the momentum is with them. I'll pick the Chargers in what is probably an upset special.

  • Dallas (5–2) at Philadelphia (5–2) — Unless the game goes into overtime and neither team scores, the winner of this game will emerge as the leader of the NFC East — but, if the Giants beat San Diego, the lead will only be ½ a game so it won't necessarily be anything long term. If the game was being played in Dallas, I would probably pick the Cowboys, but both teams are 3–1 on their home fields, and, unless the Eagles suffer some sort of letdown after their big win over the Giants, I'm going to pick the Eagles to win.
MONDAY
  • Pittsburgh (5–2) at Denver (6–1) — The Broncos are favored by three points. I'm inclined to think it may be even closer than that. Sure, there are reasons to pick the Steelers. They're riding a four–game winning streak, and the Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season, but I still think Denver will win the game. It will be chillier in Denver than it has been in Pittsburgh. Will that matter? I doubt it.
Last week: 10–3.

Season: 83–33.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

The Bookend Champions

It seems appropriate, in a way, that the first decade of the 21st century should begin and end with the New York Yankees winning the World Series.

With the exception of the 1980s, the Yankees had world champions in every decade of the 20th century since winning their first title in 1923.

Beyond that, I see no special significance in the Yankees' victory. Even though the Phillies were the defending world champions and they won the series opener behind the brilliant pitching of Cliff Lee, you didn't need to be psychic to see the Yankees — the only major league club to win 100 games or more this year — emerging with the trophy.

They've won the championship 27 times, which is nearly three times as many as their nearest competitors, the National League's St. Louis Cardinals.

In hindsight, it seems only appropriate that the Yankees should win the title in their inaugural season in the new Yankee Stadium. They won their first title the year they began playing in the original Yankee Stadium, so why should things be any different with Yankee Stadium 2.0?

As Mike Lupica writes in the New York Daily News, the title seems at home there.

I don't know if, as many are suggesting, this was one of the great Yankee teams of all time. It's hard to make that assertion, when the past is dotted with names like Ruth and Gehrig and DiMaggio and Mantle. But even if the Yankees did not field a lineup of immortals (and who's to say, at this point, that they did not?), that takes nothing away from what they achieved.

I'm sure there is great pain among Philadelphia baseball fans today. The city waited nearly 60 years to avenge the Whiz Kids' loss to New York in 1950, but the Phillies only got halfway there. Well, at least this time they won a couple of World Series games. The Whiz Kids lost a four–game sweep. Maybe the third time will be the charm for Philly, but if it takes as long for that rematch to materialize as this one did, fans who remember the Whiz Kids and lived to see the rematch will be long gone. For that matter, many of the fans who watched this series but weren't alive in 1950 will be gone as well.

More than most sports, it seems, baseball is a tough sport in which to repeat. The team the Phillies beat in last year's World Series, for example, the Tampa Bay Rays, did not qualify for this year's playoffs. And you don't have to go back too far to find other examples of teams that thought they would be back in the playoffs the next year but wound up slipping from the postseason radar.

Phillies fans should be grateful that their team had the opportunity to defend its title. Even if the Phils fell short of their goal, they enjoyed an opportunity that baseball teams don't get very often.

Unless you're the Yankees.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

LSU-'Bama Is Marquee Matchup This Week

Only two games this week match ranked teams, and one is a traditional rivalry that is sure to appeal to Southern football fans — LSU vs. Alabama.

The other matchup from the Top 25 pits two other traditional powers — Ohio State and Penn State — but they haven't been conference rivals for decades. The game should be entertaining, but it just doesn't have the history that LSU–Alabama has.

One can only imagine the atmosphere that will saturate Tuscaloosa this weekend, but, even if they can't be there in person, football fans across the nation can see the game themselves. And it ought to be quite a sight to behold.

It's going to be a busy weekend. All Top 25 teams are in action this week.
  • Vanderbilt at #1 Florida, 6:15 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — The Gators haven't lost to the Commodores since 1988, and they haven't lost to them at home since Truman was president. I don't think Vandy will end either streak this week.

  • UCF at #2 Texas, 11 a.m. (Central) on FSN — Central Florida gave Texas a good run when they played two years ago, but ultimately faltered, 35–32. That game was at home. I simply can't imagine UCF beating Texas in Austin.

  • #9 LSU at #3 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on CBS — LSU has dominated the series in the last 10 games, winning seven, but Alabama snapped a five—game losing streak last year. In recent years, it's been a good game, frequently decided by a single score. Alabama is now coached by LSU's former coach, and he snapped a five–game losing streak last year with a victory in Baton Rouge, La. 'Bama is at home, and I'll take the Tide, but it wouldn't be a huge surprise if LSU wins.

  • #4 TCU at San Diego State, 3 p.m. (Central) on Versus — TCU has won four straight since the two schools became members of the same conference. SDSU doesn't usually have a competitive football team, and TCU has dreams of cracking the BCS this year. The Frogs might be derailed along the way, but I would be very surprised if it happens this Saturday.

  • #5 Boise State at Louisiana Tech, Friday at 7 p.m. (Central) on ESPN2 — Boise State has won its last seven against Louisiana Tech — and Tech has had a few good teams in those years. Tech's last win against Boise State came at home, but that was in 2001. I expect Boise to win.

  • Northwestern at #6 Iowa, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPN — Northwestern has won three of the last four against Iowa, including a memorable win three years ago that snapped a six–game losing streak for the Wildcats. But, in spite of their date with Ohio State that looms next week, I have to think 9–0 Iowa will be eager to avenge last year's 22–17 loss to Northwestern. The Hawkeyes have only lost twice since then. I'll take Iowa at home.

  • Connecticut at #7 Cincinnati, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — UConn had lost four straight to Cincinnati since 2001 — until recording a 40–16 victory last year. Cincinnati QB Tony Pike gets the Heisman hype, but his rating is not significantly higher than UConn's Cody Endres' rating. And UConn has a pretty effective rushing tandem (Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman) whereas Cincinnati's running game is led by Isaiah Pead, who is averaging less than 60 yards per game. This one might be more competitive than many people think, but I'll still take Cincinnati at home.

  • #8 Oregon at Stanford — Oregon has won eight of its last 10 games with Stanford and hasn't lost in the series since 2001. To make matters worse for Stanford, Oregon hasn't lost at Stanford since 1997. But Stanford still has dreams of winning the Pac–10 and could pull within ½ a game of Oregon with a win. There will be plenty of stars to watch, including two of the top three rushers in the conference (Stanford's Toby Gerhart and Oregon's LaMichael James, both of whom have been producing more than 100 rushing yards per game) and one of the top passers (Stanford's Andrew Luck, who has the highest QB rating in the Pac–10). I think Oregon will win, but I expect it to be very close.

  • #12 Ohio State at #10 Penn State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Penn State is 6–10 against Ohio State since joining the Big Ten in the early 1990s. The Nittany Lions lost by 20 points the last time the Buckeyes came to town, but that was a bit unusual. Most of the games between the two schools — well, the ones in Happy Valley, anyway — have been much closer. I anticipate another close one, with Penn State ultimately claiming the victory.

  • Wake Forest at #11 Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — These ACC rivals play in different divisions so they don't play every year. This, in fact, will be a resumption of a series that hasn't been part of the regular season schedule since 2005, although the teams played for the ACC title in 2006 (when Wake Forest won). In regular–season play, Wake Forest hasn't won since 2002. I expect Georgia Tech to win by about a touchdown.

  • #13 USC at Arizona State, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Here's an interesting factoid that may have no relevance at all. Through Arizona State's first eight games, wins and losses have come in twos. ASU won its first two games, then lost the next two, then won the next two, then lost the next two. If that pattern continues, the Sun Devils should beat USC this weekend. But the Trojans have won the last nine meetings. ASU may derive some advantage from playing at home, but, in the end, I expect USC to prevail, perhaps by a field goal (which would make it the closest game the two have played in a quarter of a century).

  • Syracuse at #14 Pittsburgh, 11 a.m. (Central) on ESPNU — In the last two decades, Syracuse is 12–7–1 against Pittsburgh. But most of those wins came in the 1990s. Pitt has won the last four meetings and, being ranked and at home for this year's contest, is sure to be favored to make it five straight. The Panthers have some weapons — Dion Lewis is averaging 128 yards on the ground, and Bill Stull is throwing for more than 200 yards per game. That kind of balanced attack seems likely to keep 3–5 Syracuse on its toes. I pick Pittsburgh to win.

  • #15 Houston at Tulsa, 6:30 p.m. (Central) on CBSCSN — Until a few years ago, these two schools were nonconference opponents. They have played 10 times since 1975, with each team winning five. Houston holds the advantage since the schools became conference rivals in 2005, but they were humbled the last time they visited Tulsa, losing 56–7. And it's worth remembering that Tulsa averaged nearly 48 points a game last year but only scored 30 in a lopsided loss (70–30) at Houston. Tulsa has been struggling this year, averaging about 28 points per game while Houston has been averaging in the low 40s. Tulsa's defense has been a little better, holding opponents to about 20 points a game while the Cougars have yielded around 28 points a game. Quarterback Case Keenum probably holds the key for Houston. He's been averaging more than 400 yards passing per game this season and has thrown five TD passes for every interception. Can Tulsa stop him? I don't think so.

  • New Mexico at #16 Utah, 5 p.m. (Central) on The MTN — The two schools have split their last 10 meetings, which stands in contrast to the mid– and late 1990s, when Utah routinely beat New Mexico. This weekend's clash looks like a return to those days of yesteryear — Utah is 7–1 while New Mexico is 0–8. I can imagine no scenario in which New Mexico can win this game. Utah should win by at least two touchdowns.

  • Virginia at #17 Miami (Florida), 11 a.m. (Central) on Raycom — Before the two schools became ACC rivals a few years ago, their only previous meeting was at the end of the 1996 season, when Miami beat Virginia in the Carquest Bowl. As conference rivals, Miami holds a 3–2 lead, thanks to the Hurricanes' 24–17 win last season. Even though Miami has been struggling lately, I'll take the Hurricanes. Virginia is on the road, where it can be argued the Cavaliers have fared better than at home (where they have lost to the likes of William & Mary and Duke), but the location does not seem to matter.

  • #18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State, 2:30 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Since the conference expanded to become the Big 12 in 1996, the two teams have been in different divisions and, thus, do not play each other every year. This will be the eighth time the teams have played since the Big Eight became the Big 12, and OSU leads the series in that time, 4–3. The Cowboys held a more decisive advantage in the last 15 years of the Big Eight, when OSU was 9–4–2 against Iowa State. OSU did lose the last time the teams played in Iowa, but the trend this year is for OSU to lose to ranked teams. Give me the Cowboys.

  • Washington State at #19 Arizona — Arizona has won 13 of its last 20 games with Washington State, including the last three. But that's the way the series goes. The same team usually wins three — occasionally four — in a row, then the other team starts winning. Based on that, it would appear that it is Washington State's turn to start winning, but Washington State is 1–7 with its only win coming against SMU. I'll pick Arizona.

  • #20 Oklahoma at Nebraska, 7 p.m. (Central) on ABC — Since these schools don't play each other every year, the series doesn't have as much appeal as it used to. But it is still a bitter rivalry. It's an odd kind of series, though. Nebraska has a 6–4 record against OU in the last 10 meetings, including some really lopsided wins in the final years of the Big Eight Conference. But the Cornhuskers have lost the last three they've played against the Sooners and haven't won since 2001, which also happens to be the last time Nebraska beat Oklahoma at home. I think they might have to wait awhile longer, although it might be more competitive with Sam Bradford out of the lineup.

  • Navy at #21 Notre Dame, 1:30 p.m. (Central) on NBC — Notre Dame has won 43 of its last 44 games against Navy. The exception was a 46–44 setback in 2007 (when Notre Dame was 3–9 and Navy was 8–5). I'll take the Irish in this one.

  • #22 Wisconsin at Indiana, 11 a.m. (Central) on Big Ten — Wisconsin is 10–5 against Indiana since 1990. The Hoosiers haven't beaten the Badgers at home since 2002. I don't think they will notch a home win against the Badgers this year.

  • Oregon State at #23 California, 6 p.m. (Central) on FSN — Oregon State is 8–2 against Cal since 1999, and OSU has won the last two encounters. I pick Oregon State to win in an upset special.

  • #24 Virginia Tech at East Carolina, Thursday at 6:30 p.m. (Central) on ESPN — Virginia Tech is 8–5 in this series since 1987. The schools resumed playing each other in 2007 (first time since 2000), and East Carolina won last year for the first time since 1992. I expect Tech to win.

  • #25 BYU at Wyoming, 1 p.m. (Central) on The MTN — BYU is 8–2 against Wyoming in the last 10 years, and the Cougars have a five–game winning streak against the Cowboys. I think they will make it six in a row, although they tend to struggle a bit when they play at Wyoming.
Last week: 16–4.

Season: 130–29.