Thoughts About the NFL Draft

All across America today, sports fans are filling out brackets in their offices' NCAA Tournament pools.

I usually watch a few of the games, but, unless my alma mater (the University of Arkansas) is participating, my interest level tends to be lukewarm at best. This year, I thought the Razorbacks were on their way to the NCAA tourney when they ended 2008 and started 2009 with victories over Oklahoma and Texas. But they proceeded to lose most of their Southeastern Conference games and went one-and-done in the SEC tourney.

So my attention is being drawn to the NFL draft in 5½ weeks.

I've been wondering, for example, what affect — if any — the tragic death of Detroit defensive end Corey Smith a few weeks ago might have on the Lions' No. 1 pick. Smith, as you may know, was a free agent when he was lost at sea.

It does not appear, however, that most of the people who have the responsibility for studying the available talent and assessing what each team is looking for believe that the Lions are shopping for defensive ends — although it can be argued that, if a team went 0-16, as the Lions did last season, it is in the market for just about everything.

But the smart money seems to be on the Lions emphasizing offense.

• Scott Wright of Draft Countdown likes QB Matthew Stafford of Georgia. "There are no sure things in the NFL Draft, especially when it comes to quarterbacks," Wright observes, "but Matthew Stafford is potentially the type of player you can build a team around and he has everything you look for physically along with top intangibles to boot."
  
  He concedes, however, that "[s]ome will make the case that it's senseless to draft a quarterback if you can't protect him," but he points out that the same argument was made last year by Atlanta fans about Matt Ryan — and Ryan had the 11th highest QB rating in the NFL in 2008.
  
  Wright goes on to point out that "[t]he Lions still have two more premium picks (#20 and #33) to beef up their offensive line and worst-case there is absolutely nothing wrong with letting the 21-year-old Stafford sit on the bench and learn for a year while they improve the supporting cast around him."


• Matt Thomas writes for Sports Central that "The easy pick here at No. 1 is quarterback, where there is value for the position and a real need to get a 'face–of–the–franchise' sort of player." His pick is also Stafford.


• Robert Ferringo writes for Doc's Sports Service that he, too, sees Stafford as the No. 1 pick, but he has some reservations. "I just think that they have too many needs," he says. "What is a rookie quarterback going to offer them?"


• James Alder writes, for About.com:Football that he sees offense as the most pressing need, but he favors offensive tackle Eugene Monroe of Virginia. "I would advocate taking a potential franchise quarterback in this position, but without major improvements on the Lions' offensive line, that could be a big mistake," he says.
  
  Monroe, Alder contends, will provide more bang for the buck. "Monroe is the best pass protector in the draft, and will be a fixture at left tackle for the next decade for whomever drafts him."


• At My Sports Rumors, Paul Raymond has climbed aboard the Stafford bandwagon. He says he doesn't agree with the pick, but asks, "[W]hat else are the Lions going to do?" Detroit needs a "complete makeover" and he concludes that picking a quarterback is a "mistake," but after their winless campaign, the Lions need to "make a statement and attempt to get some fans interested."


• Nevertheless, NFL Mock Draft Aces says Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry may be the Lions' No. 1 pick. Still, NFL Mock Draft Aces says the Lions' top needs are at QB, offensive line, middle linebacker, defensive line and defensive back and concedes that Stafford and Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith probably have the edge over Curry.

I gather, from what I've been reading, that the Lions are not likely to look for a replacement for Smith in the draft.

And, while most people seem to think a quarterback — probably Stafford — will be the Lions' first choice, the implied opinion is that Detroit feels it can get by with the defensive ends it has on hand — or perhaps trade for one.